SaylorCorpus

MICHAEL SAYLOR X ODELL BITCOIN PARK FIRESIDE

Citadel Dispatch · 2024-08-07 · 44m · View on YouTube →

0:06

W what a week Michael thank you so much

0:06

for joining us yeah thanks for inviting

0:08

me happy to be here this is Bitcoin Park

0:12

welcome kind of crazy huh so a lot of

0:16

birds and bees buzzing around your Park

0:19

I I apologized to Michael before we got

0:22

on stage uh the backstage was actually a

0:25

little bit hotter than it is in here but

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it's it's quite hot with all the well

0:29

all the head in the room so um our air

0:33

conditioning is a work in progress we're

0:36

we're we're trying our best here it's a

0:38

a small

0:39

Grassroots iterating project um to those

0:43

that are not aware Bitcoin Park is

0:44

supported by our members um so we have

0:47

members that support us on an annual

0:48

basis and that's who makes this possible

0:51

uh by a show of hands who here is a

0:52

member of Bitcoin Park thank you guys

0:55

would not be possible without you okay

0:58

well Michael's time is short so let's

1:00

just get into it

1:03

um first of all Michael it's been

1:05

absolutely crazy watching your Bitcoin

1:08

Journey uh you just go 0 to 60 and just

1:11

aped right into the space in a big way

1:15

um when you think about this week I mean

1:18

what are you looking at right now how

1:20

how how are you thinking about the space

1:22

how how have we gotten so far so fast

1:25

and

1:30

uh how do you think about that basically

1:30

I guess well I mean I I think we just

1:33

see great signs of Bitcoin adoption

1:36

throughout the world Bitcoin is an issue

1:38

so the fact you have

1:41

Governors that have interests the fact

1:44

you have a lot of senators that have

1:45

interests the F fact you have a lot of

1:48

Congress people that have interests the

1:50

fact that you have two of the three

1:53

major presidential candidates that have

1:56

interests the fact that you've got tons

1:59

and tons of uh wall streeters you know

2:03

you've got representatives from Fidelity

2:05

and black rock and the like that's

2:06

interesting the fact you've got a bunch

2:08

of operating companies you know publicly

2:11

traded operating companies like Marathon

2:14

that are here in size I mean there big

2:17

sponsor and uh and and all the other

2:20

public and and private Bitcoin miners I

2:22

think you you would have seen the

2:25

Bitcoin miners private but you roll the

2:27

clock back four years you didn't see any

2:30

public operating companies you didn't

2:32

see any public Investment Trust you

2:34

didn't really see any politicians I

2:37

don't think they would have well first

2:39

of all they they just wouldn't have any

2:40

interest it just would other than squash

2:45

it out like a bug like maybe negative

2:48

interest but no positive interest and um

2:52

you know and uh not a lot of enthusiasm

2:55

and now I think they can't help but be

2:56

interested so I think um

3:06

sometimes uh the message is the message

3:06

and sometimes half of success in life is

3:09

just showing up right the fact that

3:11

you're there is sending the message

3:14

regardless of what comes out of your

3:15

mouth and um I know in the in the in the

3:19

um you know in the world of say public

3:22

companies or or Wall

3:25

Street the worst thing is not for

3:27

someone to hate you

3:30

the worst thing is for them to be

3:32

indifferent to you and view you as

3:35

irrelevant and so you know that's a A

3:38

Kiss of Death is you're irrelevant I

3:41

don't even think about you

3:44

um a lot of people don't like Tesla

3:47

stock and a lot of people short it but

3:50

it's not a problem well you know uh

3:53

there's probably 20 billion dollar of

3:55

short interest in micro strategy but

3:57

then they go long Bitcoin and I think

3:59

it's good they just get up every day and

4:01

they like hate on us or like on us it

4:03

doesn't matter what matters is they're

4:05

engaged and so I think this week is all

4:07

about engagement you just see engagement

4:10

across there are celebrities there are

4:12

politicians there are investors and then

4:14

there are bitcoiners and then there are

4:15

the engineers and the Technologies they

4:17

all come together and this is presumably

4:20

it feels like this is the richest like

4:23

most uh most energetic Gathering of uh

4:26

Bitcoin in a long time maybe the one

4:28

that I remember is most

4:30

energetic yeah I mean it seems

4:32

absolutely unreal to me I remember uh my

4:35

my first Bitcoin conference was in 2013

4:38

in uh New York and it was just like an

4:41

empty exhibitor hole you know there was

4:44

a bunch of companies that had booths

4:45

that they paid for that no one was

4:47

standing at um some of them had Booth

4:50

babes that they overpaid for and uh most

4:53

of those businesses have gone out of

4:54

business and it's just the last if you

4:56

look at the last 10 years last 11 years

4:59

it's been absolutely astounding the pace

5:02

of growth of this space um and it

5:05

definitely feels like it's accelerating

5:06

even just this week feels like a decade

5:09

almost um in in in in terms of of

5:12

progress in terms of bitcoin's

5:14

recognition I mean I agree with you you

5:16

definitely cannot argue that that

5:18

Bitcoin is irrelevant uh it's definitely

5:20

more relevant than it's ever been we

5:22

have more haters than we've ever had

5:24

we've had more lovers than we've ever

5:25

had um and it's just been crazy to watch

5:28

so Michael um you have basically made a

5:32

name for yourself

5:34

with turning micro strategy turning your

5:37

baby into this Bitcoin accumulation

5:41

machine and I've you know I've had this

5:43

thesis for a long time that every single

5:44

individual every single government every

5:46

single company is going to try and

5:48

accumulate as much Bitcoin as possible

5:51

that that is the ultimate goal and uh

5:53

most just don't realize it yet and the

5:55

people that realize it first have the

5:56

most to gain um since you've embarked on

5:59

that that strategy we've seen over the

6:02

last it actually kind of took a little

6:04

bit longer than maybe even you expected

6:06

it definitely took longer than I

6:07

expected but we're starting to

6:09

see smaller public companies around the

6:12

world try and adopt a similar strategy

6:14

I'm kind of curious how you think about

6:17

that like because to me yeah I'm not

6:19

going to answer the question for you how

6:20

do you think about that these these like

6:22

smaller public companies I mean one

6:24

example would be like um The Meta Planet

6:26

that's happening in in Japan where they

6:28

just said we're going to do the micro

6:30

strategy thing in a press release and

6:32

the stock kind of just goes

6:34

wild you know I've got a chart that I

6:37

tweet and the chart shows that bonds are

6:39

minus 5% ARR for the past four years and

6:43

Bitcoin is plus

6:46

55% so if you're an operating Company by

6:50

law you're only up

6:53

until January of this year by law you

6:58

had to invest your exess capital in in

7:01

treasuries and you couldn't invest it in

7:04

the S&P index and you couldn't you know

7:07

an operating company can't reasonably

7:10

hold their excess Assets in real estate

7:12

Timber rights sports teams and Apple

7:16

stock uh the reason not well talked

7:18

about but the reason U Berkshire hathway

7:21

for example has so much cash is because

7:25

they can't buy the S&P index and they

7:28

can't buy more Apple stock because they

7:30

would trip a 40% Covenant or limit

7:34

that's put in place by the SEC 40 act

7:37

and if the company gets more than 40% of

7:39

its liquid assets uh in a security it's

7:43

no longer an operating company and that

7:45

means it can't take on debt it can't

7:47

issue option it basically blows up the

7:49

company you become a Investment Trust so

7:53

for a 100 years 80 years the law forces

7:58

operating company

8:00

to hold their excess capital in an asset

8:03

which is losing 5% of its uh economic

8:07

energy 5% of its purchasing power per

8:10

year

8:11

and when 2020 came along you know we

8:15

were pushed in the Bitcoin space but

8:17

there're really three crippling uh

8:20

defects of you know three crippling

8:22

things that keep a company from swapping

8:24

out bonds for Bitcoin or basically

8:27

putting Bitcoin in and bonds out the

8:29

first thing is you need uh the SEC to

8:33

endorse it as an Institutional or a

8:35

legitimate asset class a digital

8:37

commodity and not a security it's it's

8:40

either illegal you know because you

8:42

can't it's illegal to own Apple stock

8:44

you know it's you know and so and it's

8:46

definitely you don't want to have an

8:47

unregistered security so we had to have

8:49

digital commodity first step and we kind

8:52

of got 75% of the way there in January

8:55

it's not a

8:56

perfected endorsement it's like a it's a

8:59

grudging endorsement you know with

9:02

reservation but we cross the Event

9:05

Horizon you can't turn that back the

9:08

second thing that's required is fair

9:09

accounting you can't invest in something

9:12

that you only lose money in and you

9:14

never make money in just simple right no

9:16

one wants to invest and always lose

9:18

money and never make money but the

9:20

accounting rules before January were you

9:23

can only lose money in Bitcoin and so

9:26

nobody is going to buy an asset that

9:28

always gets written down and never get

9:29

written up and so that got that's

9:31

optionally fixed in January that's

9:33

mandatory Fair Accounting in next

9:35

January that's the second stool leg of

9:38

the stool and the Third Leg of the stool

9:40

is Google can wire a billion dollars to

9:43

JP Morgan every month and say put it in

9:46

t- bills and it's like 15 seconds and if

9:50

JP Morgan loses it it's JP Morgan's

9:53

problem the status quo right now is

9:55

Google would have to wire a billion

9:57

dollars a month to coinbase

9:59

while the SEC is trying to put coinbase

10:02

out of business and they'd have to cross

10:04

with cross river bank like a bank of

10:07

never heard of that's the only bank that

10:09

will actually take the wire so the CFO

10:11

of Google is not going to be so

10:13

interested in wiring billions and tens

10:15

of billions of dollars to a crypto

10:18

exchange as a custodian they want State

10:21

Street they want City Group City Bank is

10:25

the pred the successor to National City

10:28

Bank National City Bank was run by the

10:30

brother of John D Rockefeller it was the

10:32

Rockefeller bank so if you want a sense

10:35

of how long these relationships

10:38

run 30 years is a short period of time

10:41

so the third piece we need is we need

10:43

Banks to be able to custody Bitcoin and

10:45

then then they can buy it for you sell

10:47

it for you loan money against it and

10:49

then in that world you will be able to

10:52

get a margin loan at Sofer plus 50 basis

10:55

points against your Bitcoin you will

10:58

probably get five percent interest

11:00

you'll probably get the same interest

11:02

rate on bitcoin as you get on a money

11:03

market fund and if you had those two

11:06

things then a corporate it's like a

11:09

hundred billion dollars of Bitcoin going

11:10

up 20% a year yielding 5% with no risk

11:14

and a bank too big to fail is doing the

11:16

headache for me you could imagine Apple

11:18

might say put $50 billion dollar in

11:21

Bitcoin so we don't have that third

11:23

thing we're kind of in year one you

11:26

could say we're year zero because year

11:28

one is you get the third thing and you

11:32

get the endorsement without prejudice

11:34

you know but I would say that we're six

11:37

months in now you got 50,000 publicly

11:39

traded companies they're all capitalized

11:42

on toxic credit which is

11:45

collapsing you know one of the points of

11:48

my speech is if you if you build your

11:49

company on a capital asset with a

11:51

10-year useful life your company is

11:53

going to last 10 years and so all these

11:56

companies have a 10 to 20 year life

11:58

because they're sitting on a effective

11:59

Capital asset the driver for them to

12:02

switch from bonds to bitcoin is

12:05

bitcoin's got a useful life of 10,000

12:08

years if you self- custody it your

12:10

maintenance cost is you know one basis

12:13

point or something so the useful life of

12:15

Bitcoin is thousands of years the useful

12:18

life of a bond is a Dozen Years or 20

12:21

years the regulatory impediment keeps

12:25

mainstream companies and institutions

12:27

from doing it because it's too much

12:30

trouble and 2024 is that first year so

12:34

the reason that they're kind of creeping

12:35

into it right now is finally you can

12:38

sorted do it it's a lot of effort to

12:41

figure out who you're going to custody

12:43

with and how you're going to buy it

12:45

right now and you can buy it for 65,000

12:48

because you're doing the effort when JP

12:50

Morgan and Goldman Sachs do this it'll

12:53

be easy and it will cost

12:56

$500,000 so you get 85% discount if you

12:59

do the work and you take a little bit of

13:02

risk if you done it in 2020 you know you

13:05

would have got a 98% discount if you

13:08

came in in 2013 you got a

13:11

99.8% discount but that was a lot more

13:13

risk and a lot more

13:15

work and you know a lot of these in

13:17

institutions they're just like if I can

13:20

make a phone call in 30 seconds and say

13:22

buy $10 billion of Bitcoin they'll do it

13:26

but if they have to work harder they'll

13:28

study it for three years and then they

13:30

won't do it because why should they take

13:33

that risk and so we're in that

13:36

transition but I guess that makes sense

13:38

to me I mean risk reward I I have a

13:41

friend who always says the the best way

13:43

to measure how long someone's been in

13:45

Bitcoin is not how much Bitcoin they own

13:47

but how much Bitcoin they've lost um

13:49

just because it was incredibly risky and

13:52

also it's very easy uh to not stay

13:54

humble and and to lose lose your coin um

13:58

on various schemes

13:59

I guess where I'm going with it is

14:02

um and this is something that I'm

14:04

intimately focused on because of my work

14:08

at 10:31 so at at 10:31 we're a venture

14:11

firm uh that specializes in the Bitcoin

14:13

space we have a portfolio of 36 Bitcoin

14:15

startups you know they're all trying to

14:18

accumulate as much Bitcoin as possible

14:19

that is their goal and I'm trying to

14:22

separate in my head uh where at some

14:27

point it can't it I I think there's some

14:30

companies out there that are just kind

14:31

of riding on almost like cheap cheap

14:34

trick uh strategy it's like we say

14:37

Bitcoin we accumulate some Bitcoin they

14:39

don't actually have a business model um

14:41

they they they don't have a competitive

14:44

advantage to outperform the hardest

14:46

asset of all time um and at some point

14:49

that evaporates and and we we kind of

14:51

haven't hit that yet but at the core

14:52

what I look at

14:54

is low low low expenses keep your

14:57

expenses as low as possible keep your

14:58

cash flow as high as possible um and

15:01

just trying to accumulate as much

15:02

Bitcoin on the balance sheet while

15:04

growing in a responsible way do you do

15:06

you would you agree with me on that on

15:08

that front that there's a lot of kind of

15:10

just say Bitcoin or say AI right and as

15:13

a result your stock pumps and I'm

15:15

obviously not accusing micro strategy of

15:17

that I mean I think you've proven that

15:19

the stock is a creative and as you hold

15:21

the stock you you you gain more Bitcoin

15:23

over

15:24

time I I think that every business has

15:26

got a p&l and it's got a balance sheet

15:29

and the p&l is the operation it's what

15:31

you do and the balance sheet is how you

15:34

save what you do and so the people that

15:37

have it very easy the people that can

15:39

make lots of money right now are just

15:41

people that started with the money right

15:43

if you've already got the money and you

15:45

just could move it from a bond to

15:47

bitcoin then you moved it from minus 5%

15:49

a year to plus 50% a year and that not

15:53

hard right um it's very hard to compete

15:57

with Microsoft like it's very hard to

15:59

compete with Amazon it's very hard to

16:01

compete with Google it's very hard to

16:02

compete with apple all of those

16:03

companies are examples where they wiped

16:07

out 20,000 competent healthy hardworking

16:10

companies like if you ever been in the

16:13

retail business every single retailer

16:16

except Walmart got wiped out by Amazon

16:18

there's nothing wrong with those people

16:20

they're good people they work hard they

16:22

work themselves to death but at the end

16:23

of the day it's you know same with

16:25

Microsoft they have a monopoly on every

16:27

on 80 million business businesses and

16:29

they sld them their software for three

16:31

years and so so I think

16:34

that if you're asking me is it easy to

16:38

create a business in the modern world my

16:41

answer is it's not easy you can do it I

16:44

mean Mr Beast can you know it happens

16:47

right random stuff happen but it's it's

16:51

hard and it's and if you ask me for

16:53

advice in entertainment versus medicine

16:56

versus law versus software versus

16:58

whatever

16:59

I would say I'm not an expert in any of

17:02

those things I would say probably you

17:05

ought to look at AI because it's

17:06

probably going to you know disrupt and

17:08

obliterate anything that's labor

17:10

intensive is getting obliterated the

17:12

distribution is getting

17:14

disrupted and so that's hard on the

17:17

other side the the Bitcoin uh the

17:21

balance sheet strategy it's actually

17:23

quite easy right the reason I talk about

17:24

Bitcoin is your choice is lose 5% of

17:28

your money with Bob

17:29

or make you know if it's 50% right now

17:32

right my my forecast is on average the

17:35

ARR is going to be 25 30% over the next

17:38

20 years so if it if it goes the worst

17:41

case for me is it's got to go up faster

17:44

and perform better than the S&P index

17:47

and if the S&P is 10 to 12 then Bitcoin

17:49

is 20 to 22 so I basically uh talk about

17:55

that which I know I don't give advice to

17:58

people on on that which I don't know and

18:00

the and the sad fact is if I were to

18:03

tell you there's a 99% chance a startup

18:06

will fail I might be overstating your

18:08

chances of success 99% of the S&P 500 is

18:12

failing right now yep I mean there's

18:14

five companies and the S&P 5 everybody's

18:16

saying how do I compete with Nvidia and

18:18

that includes apple and Tesla are saying

18:21

I don't know if we can right what you

18:23

will see is a rise of trillion doll

18:25

corporations because someone's going to

18:27

give all the medical advice to billion

18:29

people with AI doctors without an

18:32

employee and whoever figures that out is

18:34

going to make a lot of money and it's

18:36

going to make Medical Care cheaper it's

18:39

going to put a lot of people in the

18:40

middle out of

18:41

business and there'll be disruption so I

18:44

don't think that Bitcoin is a pan bit

18:47

Bitcoin won't make your startup that

18:49

competes with Microsoft compete better

18:52

right it's not going to make you it's

18:54

not going to help you build better cars

18:56

than Tesla the dude that creates the

18:59

humanoid robot that's as smart as a

19:01

million phds you know that actually you

19:04

can buy for 100 bucks a month they're

19:06

probably going to sell a lot of them and

19:08

the dude that creates the second best

19:10

humanoid robot nobody will want to buy

19:12

it nobody wants the second best of

19:14

anything right they just want the one

19:16

they want the best one and they're going

19:18

to sell a billion so you know I think

19:22

the summary of that is sometimes people

19:24

think that by doing something with

19:27

Bitcoin it will generate a p&l for

19:30

them it's like okay I'm going to launch

19:33

a Bitcoin exchange and I'm going to

19:35

compete with my with Fidelity or with

19:38

Morgan Stanley or with Vanguard it's

19:40

like just because you sell and buy in

19:42

custody Bitcoin doesn't mean it's easy

19:45

to displace Fidelity and so I think you

19:48

got to have humility there and like in

19:51

in our journey for

19:53

example we got into Bitcoin you know we

19:58

now have 15 billion dollar of Bitcoin

20:01

but I'm not selling the Bitcoin to hire

20:03

Engineers to compete with Microsoft see

20:06

it would it would be like throwing good

20:07

money after bad right I mean so what is

20:11

a good idea well I mean our idea is

20:15

securitize the Bitcoin there are a lot

20:17

of people they want the upside of

20:20

Bitcoin but no downside right have you

20:22

ever met people they' like to make a lot

20:24

of money but with no volatility and no

20:26

risk many such cases Okay so so how do

20:29

you buy Bitcoin at the all-time high and

20:32

not lose money and then make money if it

20:34

goes up well you buy a convertible Bond

20:37

if I sell you a convertible bond with

20:39

70% upside that's 5x over collateralized

20:43

on the downside and you and if micro

20:45

strategy guarantees you to give back

20:47

your

20:48

principle it's like I'm guaranteeing

20:50

you'll get your money back in six years

20:52

but if Bitcoin goes up you'll also get

20:54

the warrant and so you're getting half

20:56

the upside none of the down or 5% of the

20:59

downside half the upside and that's the

21:02

security and so if you think about that

21:05

we're just stripping the volatility or

21:08

we're stripping the uh risk off the

21:11

bottom and there are a lot of people for

21:14

which for example if you go up to a

21:16

typical investor and you said what would

21:17

you like 20% return no volatility no you

21:21

know and little risk or 50% return lots

21:24

of volatility most will tell you 20%

21:27

even though that's the wrong

21:29

answer right it's the wrong I mean

21:32

you're going to take 20 instead of

21:34

55 well I just I don't want the

21:36

volatility so what we do is we simply

21:40

strip away the volatility and the risk

21:42

and give them what they want but other

21:46

companies in the Bitcoin space if your

21:48

idea is you're going to create a mobile

21:49

app that let you buy and sell Bitcoin

21:51

you're competing against cash app and

21:53

cash app is you know holding their own

21:55

but they're gonna have to compete

21:56

against Apple and Google and and Robin

21:59

Hood and look there are Robin hoods I

22:02

mean there are successful businesses but

22:05

at the end of the day if there's a theme

22:07

to this business is hard like launching

22:11

a business and growing a business is

22:13

hard investing is hard when you look at

22:16

every public company you try to guess if

22:18

their stock is overvalued or

22:20

undervalued versus their their cash flow

22:24

forecast that's hard it's not hard to

22:26

say it's a good company it's hard to say

22:28

whether the stock price is a good entry

22:30

point right investing is hard

22:33

saving was hard under the Fiat standard

22:37

but under the Bitcoin standard if your

22:39

goal is I have some money I'm GNA hold

22:40

it for four years that's easy I buy

22:44

Bitcoin if I'm G to hold it for four

22:46

years it doesn't matter what the

22:48

volatility

22:49

is and uh from there you know business

22:53

is hard man business is you know there

22:55

there's something happening in the world

22:57

which is

22:59

like how does anybody sell software to a

23:01

corporation if Microsoft look what they

23:04

did with uh slack look what they did

23:06

with zoom they will just take your slack

23:09

and make it teams and put it into their

23:11

three-year Enterprise deal and you have

23:13

to buy it and they will take zoom and

23:15

put it into teams and put it in the

23:17

three-year deals and you have to buy it

23:19

and it would be easier for a company to

23:21

leave the US than to leave

23:24

Microsoft just like apple not that

23:27

different right I mean how many people

23:28

want to throw away their Apple phone and

23:30

switch to a new ecosystem they've got

23:33

your stuff so businesses and if they do

23:35

switch they switch to Google right in

23:37

both your examples like mic you leave

23:39

Microsoft teams you go to Google suite

23:41

and what's the third choice yeah like so

23:43

so business is hard and it's it's not

23:47

that you can't create new

23:50

opportunities but Bitcoin what Bitcoin

23:54

offers is you can either use it to

23:57

escape the bond conundra

23:59

or if you're a private company that can

24:01

raise money or if you're a public

24:04

company that can raise

24:05

money you can securitize Bitcoin because

24:09

there are large pools of capital that

24:12

people have where they have to buy a

24:15

security for example a venture

24:18

capitalist they have to buy a a security

24:21

a participating a preferred stock in a

24:24

private company that might go public

24:25

they have a billion dollars they can't

24:27

buy Bitcoin they can't buy the ETF they

24:29

can't buy land they can't buy art they

24:31

can't buy a public operating company

24:33

they just can't it doesn't matter

24:35

whether it's going to go up by a factor

24:36

of a million they can't buy it their

24:39

Charter says spend the billion dollars

24:41

on private Equity so you you know they

24:44

can't buy Bitcoin but you can actually

24:46

create a company with Bitcoin on the

24:47

balance sheet and go sell them a

24:50

participating preferred stock with half

24:52

of the return of Bitcoin none of the

24:54

volatility they don't have to market the

24:56

market they don't say oh risking all

24:59

your money on bitcoin they're like oh I

25:00

made an interesting investment in a

25:02

Bitcoin based company they make

25:05

22% if they get a 20% return and the S&P

25:09

returns 12 they'll go back to their

25:10

investors and raise 10 billion more

25:12

dollars and the fireman's pension fund

25:15

will say oh you beat the S&P how much

25:17

money do you want so they need to do

25:19

that the guys that buy my converts when

25:23

I sell a convertible Bond I have a one

25:24

hour phone call I'm like okay this is

25:26

the bond this what we're going to do

25:27

okay they buy 800 million of it at the

25:29

end of the day okay why it's like they

25:33

have the money they have to buy a

25:34

convertible Bond they can't they're like

25:36

why don't they buy Bitcoin they can't

25:38

why don't they buy your Equity they

25:39

can't they need to buy there's a phrase

25:42

in Wall Street if the Ducks are quacking

25:45

feed the Ducks they want that there's

25:48

another group of people they want equity

25:50

in a public company they can't buy the

25:53

spot ETF they can't it's a it's against

25:57

their Charter they get fired just can't

25:59

why don't they well you're questioning

26:01

the world right I mean the end of the

26:03

day the world is made up of huge pools

26:05

of capital and it might have taken 20

26:08

years to raise the money now I got to

26:10

spend the money so if you are the

26:13

entrepreneur my general message is you

26:16

can create a security that a capitalist

26:20

can then use to get Bitcoin exposure and

26:24

if you're public you sell public Equity

26:26

or debt and buy Bitcoin and if you're

26:28

private you'll sell private Equity or

26:30

private debt and buy Bitcoin if you

26:33

can't raise money then you just got to

26:35

work very very hard and get lucky and

26:38

it's hard and you'll see a Zuckerberg on

26:41

occasion you'll see some breakthroughs

26:43

but you know it's like it's not easy and

26:46

so I my recommended strategy is not work

26:49

yourself to death my recommended

26:51

strategy is notice that there are $450

26:55

billion of capital in bonds and real EST

26:58

estate and traditional 20th century

27:00

assets there's 1 trillion so there's 450

27:04

trillion in those things there's 1

27:05

trillion in

27:06

Bitcoin you should be the conduit to

27:09

move the next trillion dollars from the

27:12

old world to the new world and the way

27:15

you do it is by raising money with

27:18

issuing Securities to buy Bitcoin and

27:21

you solve what's the problem you solve

27:23

custody it for them buy it for them take

27:27

away the volatility take away the

27:29

downside risk you know and then solve

27:33

the compliance issue Chinese billionaire

27:36

has got to buy Bitcoin through a

27:37

Shanghai ETF otherwise he goes to jail

27:40

right that's the problem you solve it's

27:42

not as good as self- custody is not as

27:44

good as the raw Bitcoin but that's

27:46

academic because when you've got 10

27:48

billion dollars in your choice is buy a

27:49

billion this way or go to jail or don't

27:52

buy any the answer the world is

27:55

imperfect that's why they call it Earth

27:57

not heaven

27:59

wonderful um Michael we have 15 minutes

28:04

um want to be very conscious of your

28:06

time we have a hard stop here and I have

28:08

20 different directions I like this

28:10

conversation to go so I hope this is the

28:12

first of many um first and foremost I

28:15

just want to

28:18

uh feel like there's a little bit of an

28:20

elephant in the room um Michael and I

28:24

have had multiple productive

28:26

conversations in terms of supporting

28:27

open resource development um we are not

28:30

going to go there today I I I don't

28:32

think that's the best path for for this

28:34

conversation to take um I want to talk

28:37

to you about your thoughts on bitcoin as

28:39

a transactional

28:41

currency um because I I think it's super

28:45

interesting uh being in the space with

28:48

you because uh we agree on so much and

28:50

we have such different perspectives on

28:53

bitcoin um but we we we end up in the

28:56

same space like 99% % we're on the exact

29:00

same page um the transactional currency

29:03

piece um might be where we differ the

29:07

most can let's just chat about that like

29:09

how are you thinking about that right

29:10

now okay well you know if I think about

29:13

energy frequency and vibration every

29:15

time you trade an asset it's a vibration

29:19

and if you're vibrating in a high

29:21

friction environment or a high impedance

29:23

environment you're bleeding off energy

29:26

and so things that you can C things you

29:28

can do in outer space

29:30

forever you can do in the atmosphere for

29:33

less and in the water not so much so the

29:36

real issue is when you're doing a

29:39

transaction what is the impedance and

29:41

there's there's a source of physical

29:44

impedance like for example what do I

29:46

think of gold as a transactional

29:48

currency well like I don't think it's

29:50

good because it's hard to subdivide it

29:52

and it's hard to send it over the mail

29:54

and so you can see how there's a high

29:57

energy cost cost to trade gold high

29:59

frequency that's why it died um on the

30:03

other hand like what do I think of Apple

30:06

stock as a transactional currency and

30:10

here you're just get into

30:12

politics in a country where Apple stock

30:15

was legal tender if it's legal tender

30:18

and I can send it to you and you could

30:20

send it back to me and I can do it in

30:23

second with no

30:26

tax then you know wow Apple stock is

30:28

better than gold now what do I think of

30:31

the dollar as as legal as a

30:34

transactional currency well what I think

30:37

is I can send it back and forth a

30:39

million times a day and I don't have a

30:41

million taxable events and so I don't

30:43

have to account for it if I send a

30:46

capital asset whether it's a corporate

30:49

bond an equity Bitcoin in the U if

30:52

you're in the US now if I move it I'm

30:55

moving it at high frequency and I'm

30:57

incurring an account event and a taxable

30:59

event and if you if you do the

31:01

calculation it just turns out that

31:03

everything just costs 10 or 20% more and

31:06

and so I don't if we were talking about

31:10

a country Al Salvador where it's legal

31:12

tender and I can move it back and forth

31:15

a hundred times a month and there is no

31:17

accounting event and there's no taxable

31:19

event then my opinion is if it's

31:23

satoshi's on Lightning I kind of like it

31:27

if it's Satoshi over the base layer I I

31:30

think at some point the friction is you

31:32

know when it's $3 a transaction yep

31:35

there's too much friction so I don't

31:36

like it on the base layer I do like it

31:38

on the second layer but I would counsel

31:42

anybody that if you had a if you had a

31:44

certain amount of money 95% of it should

31:47

be held in the capital account as

31:50

Bitcoin 5% should be in the local

31:54

checking account and as a practical

31:58

you've got real two two things you in

32:00

Argentina if everything's priced in the

32:02

peso and then you have to have pesos I

32:06

would probably buy them the hour before

32:08

I had to spend them but I would buy them

32:10

and on the other hand

32:14

if if something is legal tender I'm much

32:18

more likely to want to vibrate it or

32:19

transact at high frequency and if it's

32:22

and if it's going to be taxed heavily

32:25

you know short-term capital tax right is

32:29

like 35 40% right so if I if I gave you

32:32

a Bitcoin and it was up you know a bit

32:35

and I gave here's the thing I think we

32:37

both agree on Matt which is neither one

32:39

of us think we should send all our money

32:41

to the

32:42

government right very

32:45

[Applause]

32:47

true and I think that's why for example

32:50

tether has been so successful you know I

32:53

mean in theory a digital currency that's

32:56

just a dollar that's pegged to the

32:58

dollar at for high frequency checking

33:01

you know and a digital property Bitcoin

33:06

which you can hold for the rest of your

33:07

life as the property or the capital

33:10

asset those two paired would allow you

33:12

to go anywhere in the world and stay

33:14

rich or stay wealthy and stay compliant

33:18

and minimize you know what do you want

33:19

you want to hold the Bitcoin forever and

33:21

never pay capital gains you don't want

33:23

to like you know and you never you know

33:26

you just want to hold it forever and

33:27

then you want everything else to be

33:29

quick and easy so that's what I think on

33:32

that subject I mean so you think you

33:35

think the tax treatment is is the major

33:37

hurdle so it's more of a politics

33:38

regulatory kind of landscape issue I

33:41

think the government can basically

33:42

destroy any asset by the tax treatment

33:45

politics

33:46

matter like if they want to destroy it

33:49

right then for example you know here's

33:51

the best tax treatment legal tender no

33:54

tax on it you can hold it forever and

33:56

you can transfer it and there and

33:59

there's no tax what's the second best

34:02

which is capital gains or property

34:04

what's the last best property tax which

34:06

is a tax on time like you're holding it

34:09

and I want 1% of it you know I want 1%

34:13

of the market value every year

34:15

regardless of whether you trade it right

34:18

and and that's the land tax in the US

34:21

and that takes your money away from you

34:22

in 35 40 years so I would

34:25

say if the government passes a a

34:27

property tax on bitcoin you should leave

34:30

the country I would say if they're going

34:32

to capital gains tax it you should

34:34

manage yourself so you don't have to

34:36

transfer it very often almost never and

34:40

I would say if they made it legal tender

34:42

then you probably ought to move to that

34:43

country you ought to go the other

34:45

direction we haven't talked about

34:47

inheritance taxes yet right that's say

34:49

but that's the last part but I do think

34:52

taxes taxes are 40% of the equation they

34:55

matter a lot and generally the best

34:58

strategies are strategies that allow you

35:01

to defer tax or avoid tax and the worst

35:05

strategies or strategies that accelerate

35:08

the tax you're either going to pay it or

35:10

you're not going to pay it and then

35:12

you've got a legal liability and then

35:13

you got to worry about that and then

35:15

either way those strategies become uh a

35:19

friction you know they become a problem

35:21

yeah I mean I think one of the earliest

35:23

things uh you said when you became

35:25

public in the space was that that

35:27

politics and people aren't taking them

35:28

seriously enough I mean and I think just

35:31

the last few weeks alone have have

35:33

proven you right I mean just the panel

35:35

before us was was with our governor and

35:37

one of our Senators um we have the

35:39

former president of the United States

35:41

going to be speaking at at the largest

35:43

Bitcoin conference in the world tomorrow

35:46

um politics clearly matter um I think

35:49

one of the cool Parts

35:51

about uh Freedom Tech and Bitcoin as

35:54

Freedom money is is it gives individuals

35:57

more power when it comes to combating

36:00

governments or not combating governments

36:02

maybe that's too critical of a word but

36:05

uh defending themselves and and and and

36:09

supporting their individual liberties um

36:12

and as a result it levels the playing

36:13

field a bit and that to me has always

36:15

given me hope and I think uh you've

36:17

always been really good you have

36:19

hope.com Bitcoin is hope I mean we got

36:21

Larry Frink out there saying bitcoin's

36:23

like the Hedge against hope it's like

36:24

the exact opposite to a degree the

36:26

opposite thing yeah I think we can merge

36:28

I think we can merge that but anyway um

36:31

Michael I'm curious are we do you think

36:35

we're entering the era of nation state

36:39

government fomo like is is is are we

36:43

about to start seeing you know the micro

36:45

strategy Playbook happen on a government

36:48

scale I

36:50

think

36:52

it's it's positive that they're all

36:54

talking about it the Overton window has

36:56

shifted a year ago no one would discuss

36:58

it now you've got you know you've got

37:01

Robert F Kennedy talking about it you've

37:03

got a bunch of senators talking about it

37:07

uh so I just think we start with the

37:08

conversation I keep my expectations low

37:12

I think we should all keep our

37:13

expectations low but with the

37:15

observation that when a government

37:18

starts talking about owning it they

37:20

legitimize it and that means what

37:22

they're not talking about is taking it

37:24

away from you so when they're not

37:28

talking about owning it like if you look

37:29

at the German government they emergency

37:32

sold it because it could go to zero and

37:35

so The Narrative of it's not an asset

37:39

and it's a you know it's a criminal

37:41

thing and it's going to zero that thing

37:44

is pernicious and if you want to move

37:47

forward you have to put a firm

37:48

foundation so I think when the

37:50

government starts talking about it that

37:53

means that individuals and small

37:55

companies will feel comfortable enough

37:57

to move in they'll move first they'll

37:59

front run right the government's always

38:01

going to be slow it's always going to be

38:03

hamfisted there'll be a lot of

38:05

fighting but I think the individuals and

38:07

families will move I think if the

38:09

government's considering it it becomes a

38:11

lot less risky for you to discuss it in

38:13

the board meeting so when I go into a

38:16

boardroom and they ask me I can say you

38:19

know micr strategy doing but guess what

38:20

here are all the politicians that of

38:22

this bill and the question is will I get

38:25

fired if I propose it so I think the

38:28

Overton window is Shifting I I'm not

38:31

expecting you know that a government's

38:34

going to buy a ton of Bitcoin tomorrow

38:36

and put it on the wire I think I think

38:38

you have to Discount that I do think we

38:42

will over the next four years see some

38:44

government start to take a position

38:46

it'll probably come out of the blue

38:48

it'll probably be someone you didn't

38:50

expect and it'll be a good thing but my

38:54

I generally think this this plays out

38:56

over Epic four years this is the early

39:00

institutional phase then another four

39:02

then another four yeah I mean we've

39:04

already seen the smaller Nations to a

39:06

degree start Bitcoin accumulation

39:08

strategies uh obviously El Salvador is

39:11

is the one that's on most people's minds

39:13

I think it's pretty cool that you could

39:14

go to their like mempool instance and

39:16

see they buy one Bitcoin a day which is

39:18

like a nice little meme step chart up um

39:21

but like even countries like Bhutan that

39:23

we found out through bankruptcy reports

39:26

that they were just quietly accumulating

39:28

as much Bitcoin as possible um but what

39:31

is your given what may or may not happen

39:35

tomorrow uh do you believe the US

39:37

Treasury

39:39

should stack

39:41

Bitcoin yeah I mean I I just came from a

39:44

a presentation on the stage and what I

39:47

said was you know that the the 10center

39:52

strategy for the US would be to buy

39:54

500,000 Bitcoin the BTC the Maxi

39:57

strategy is they should buy a million

39:59

the double Maxi strategy is they should

40:01

buy two million and the triple Max

40:04

strategy for the US is they ought to buy

40:05

four million Bitcoin over the next four

40:08

years they would have like

40:10

18% of the of the supply and if they did

40:14

that they retire the debt and they flip

40:16

to a massive Surplus and and I you know

40:19

my precedent

40:28

is like the secret to success as a

40:28

nation state is you have defensible

40:31

productive property and so the reason

40:33

that the British Empire Rose is they had

40:36

an island and it was hard to invade it

40:38

nobody got to it after 1066 and that on

40:40

that island they

40:42

industrialized and then they got the the

40:45

colonies and that was defensible

40:47

productive land and then the reason the

40:50

US Rose to power is the United States is

40:53

defended by the Pacific on one side the

40:55

Atlantic on the other side Frozen tunder

40:57

to the north a desert to the South

40:59

defensible productive and what we do

41:03

well we bought Louisiana Territory

41:05

Jefferson did it for 15 million bucks

41:08

and he bought 27% of the land mass

41:10

Seward bought Alaska 7 million dollar

41:14

the United States federal government

41:16

owns 28% of the land in the US we own

41:20

whatever 18% of the gold or something so

41:24

scarce desirable property but by

41:26

productive property you can defend and

41:28

so if hundreds of trillions of dollars

41:31

are migrating to cyberspace right my

41:34

view is bitcoin's going to demonetize

41:36

Siberian real estate and Chinese real

41:38

estate and everything in Africa and why

41:40

would you want to own bonds of a South

41:43

American company why would you want to

41:46

anything other than Bitcoin so as the

41:49

capital flows you're going to see

41:51

hundreds of trillions of dollars there

41:53

so if you're the United States what are

41:55

you worried about losing your world

41:57

Reserve currency status where's the

41:59

money going to go to bitcoin how do you

42:02

hedge that just go to go to where

42:04

everybody's going and buy 20% of it and

42:06

then when they get there you know you'll

42:08

be fine that where else you going to go

42:12

right for example if you're if you're

42:13

going to sell the dollar right you're

42:14

not selling the dollar for the peso the

42:16

L the Euro nobody wants any of that so

42:19

when you sell the dollar you're going to

42:20

buy Siberian real estate no you're going

42:23

to buy bit buy Bitcoin what's the second

42:25

best you're going to buy a sec nothing

42:26

second best there is no second best

42:29

right

42:30

so so the point is you want a country

42:33

you want a country to be capitalized on

42:35

a firm foundation the foundation is

42:38

productive property that no one can take

42:40

away from you and bitcoin's beautiful it

42:43

is productive because the AIS are going

42:46

to want to move 10 billion dollars from

42:48

you know here to there every hour

42:50

they're not going to move $10 billion to

42:52

buildings or silver right or dollars

42:56

Lord knows they can't get a bank account

42:59

right so everybody's going to want the

43:02

capital if you want a company a family a

43:05

country to last and

43:08

prosper like how well would your how

43:10

good would your family be if you owned

43:12

100 acres in the middle of Manhattan

43:14

like how would you like to own a

43:16

thousand square miles in Texas right

43:18

something right own something productive

43:21

for a long time the catch is you don't

43:25

want me to take it away from you they

43:27

you don't want them to tax it and you

43:28

don't want them to steal it from you and

43:30

the beauty of Bitcoin is any country

43:33

puts their money in cyberspace nobody

43:35

can steal it nobody else can tax it so

43:38

even though it's brilliant for the US

43:40

it's even a better idea for Switzerland

43:43

or for in Norway or for turkey because

43:47

there's no point in invading your

43:49

country to take your stuff if all your

43:51

stuff is in cyers space so I I'm a big

43:55

believer I think it's good for the

43:56

network I think it decentralizes us

43:58

further I mean it'll be source of a lot

44:01

of interesting debates and dialogue but

44:04

you know if you if you believe you want

44:06

if you want to help the us then give

44:08

them productive digital capital and

44:11

anybody else you want to help give them

44:13

the same advice and if you hate somebody

44:16

if you hate someone tell them to sell

44:17

their Bitcoin and don't buy

44:19

it right that's the worst you can do to

44:22

anybody encourage them to not Bitcoin

44:25

because that's like en encouraging

44:27

Russians to sell Alaska it's like

44:30

Napoleon sold a third of America for 15

44:32

million bucks blew it on bullets and

44:35

blankets in the Napoleonic War we still

44:38

have a third of the United States so who

44:40

got the better

44:42

trade Bitcoin is beautiful and we should

44:45

all stack as much as possible stay

44:47

humble all stack SATs let's go

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