Why Bitcoin: Michael Saylor Interview - #Bitcoin #LostCoins $MSTR #Future #Math Education + more
InvestAnswers · 2021-10-21 · 1h 20m · View on YouTube →
hey everybody
this is a long video one i've been
looking forward to for quite some time
with one of my heroes michael saylor
we're gonna cover a lot of ground we're
gonna talk about
giving back to bitcoin to investing to
the markets to the great reset and a ton
of other material
i know many of you may not have an hour
and a half to look at it all but
detailed chapters are below
hope you like it enjoy let's go i'll do
a very brief intro everybody kind of
knows who you are but
let's see how this goes and i'm very
very excited so first of all um we
should be on gallery view
everybody i would like to introduce
michael saylor this is a man who is very
special
i've been tracking him for nearly 15
years due to some of my history
mr sailor knew what business
intelligence was before anybody even
knew what it was he's a visionary mit
grad he knew mobile was the future again
before anybody else knew what it was and
he has this uncanny ability to weave
together the best metaphors on earth in
my opinion he's been the ceo of
microstrategy since the late 80s and
i've been again following him for a long
time in fact my youtube channel actually
became famous because of microstrategy
and i
identified what he was doing and felt
everyone needs to get their hands on the
stock so the rest is history and that
all happened late 2020 and now we have
thousands of viewers that are
microstrategy shareholders either in
their isas in the uk or iras in the u.s
or the brokerage accounts all over the
world so
big thank you for being here mr
sailor happy to be here james okay this
is going to be an interesting
conversation we're going to go fast
we're going to cover a lot of cool
ground but first of all i have a little
treat for you
and i'm going to share something with
you just as a little surprise as you
know a big part of this channel is
really to give back and
i know you are a nautical person to some
extent
and we contribute a lot of money we make
to back to nature and children's
hospitals and stuff so we adopted a
whale this is the second last one
available we named him sailor
and
this is part of uh
the oceanic society that helps keep our
ocean safe clean free from plastic
protect wildlife and it tracks sailor a
humpback whale and cedar likes to float
between the oregon coast and the gulf of
mexico believe it or not and spends a
lot of time hanging out at the farallon
islands which is not far from where i am
a lot of the time so
sailor is yours i hope i hope you like
that i hope you don't mind
so that's awesome
i might need to track sailor of the
whale
exactly well you are a whale yourself
so it might be hard to keep up with
we'll see
exactly so again let's uh jump in i'll
start at the beginning um first of all
i'm not going to talk about
adiabatic processes which i know are
near and dear to your heart but we will
talk about your view of the world so
with your book the mobile wave you
nailed the future of technology 10 years
ago
and
it was uncanny how you did i remember
one of the the key things you you
equated
uh
comp pcs
to
a solid
laptops to a liquid and mobile to a gas
now i that really resonated with me a
decade ago and i thought wow the future
is mobile the future search etc but do
you believe you have nailed the next big
thing as in bitcoin
like you were really the first to spot
the mobile wave wow you think bitcoin is
the next technology wave satoshi nailed
it with the help of a bunch of you know
cyberpunks um so
i watched it for 10 years but i was
really focused i think the last decade
was the mobile wave for me and i was
focused on
digital transformations
of in the first era i almost feel like
there's
there's one segment of the mobile wave
which is uh the digital transformation
of music and books
and communications and relationships and
retail
and that describes the rise of youtube
and google and facebook and amazon and
apple
and i think the second stage
of the mobile wave is digital
transformation of money
the you know digital transformation of
property digital property
digital money digital assets
and ultimately i think i think the the
most theoretically pure
you know metaphor here is digital energy
and uh i i think of course that second
that second uh
epic of the mobile wave is got to be 10x
bigger an order of magnitude bigger than
the first epic
because if you ask anybody you know what
what's the value of having all your
movies and all your photographs and all
your books and all your documents on
your iphone
that's i guess it's a decent amount it's
enough to make apple a two trillion
dollar company but then if you asked
what's the value of all your property
and all your money
and all your wealth what if that was on
your iphone
and yeah what would apple be worth then
if all the property
and all the money
in the world was stored
on an iphone or an android phone and i
know it's a it's a little bit limiting
to just talk about them but but mobile
devices are so ubiquitous and i think
it's inevitable that 8 billion people on
the planet will all have at least one
mobile device and it'll be the
primary device they use to manipulate
software and
what could be more powerful software
than than software that moves energy or
property or money
your world's collided then
your mobile world with your digital
world smashed together is that fair to
say
i think so
awesome so when when did
when did the penny drop for you
for bitcoin to invest and i know you you
know an awful lot about finance and
economics and bonds and treasuries and
everything else but when was the like
the aha moment when the penny dropped
i think it's um
march
of 2020.
i if you look at um
the thing that's so difficult to grasp
about bitcoin
as a digital transformation is
is
it's it's a complete paradigm shift in
your view of
money
property and energy
and
and uh
you know when when you have something
which totally transforms your world it
takes a while to give up the old world
so
just about every company on earth has a
balance sheet and every fam you know a
conventional family a conventional
company a conservatively run
organization runs on a balance sheet of
cash and credit
most central banks have cash and credit
a long time ago people had some gold on
their balance sheet but gold it probably
peaked 1914
and it disappeared and then what you saw
was
companies running treasuries with cash
and a lot of credit and the credit is
short term sovereign debt
or other high you know triple a rated
credit instruments
and and the way you ran a business was
you're either a finance company a wall
street company and you and you can't
really invest in cash
maybe you invest in credit fixed income
you're either credit or you're or you
invest in equity
and then if you're an operating company
like a software company
you hold your treasury in cash and short
dated sovereign debt and that's just the
way it was for 30 40 years and you were
doing that for nearly 30 years yourself
within microstrategy that's how we were
in our company but through the decade
from 2010 to 2020
it got harder and harder
for us to to grow the company
and
we were generating a lot of cash but
somehow the stock got mired
and and you know if you have a bunch of
cash and it's generating five percent
interest
and someone told you the inflation rate
was two percent you might think that
sort of you're getting ahead
but when when interest rates went to
zero percent
i think the first shoe to drop was
interest rates are zero or that's not
good the second the second uh knock was
they're gonna stay at zero for four
years
okay there's no hope of generating
interest on cash and credit
well that caused me to stop and say well
how bad is it
okay well the how about it how bad is it
it depends upon your definition of
inflation
so
i believe there's two inflation rates
there's inflation rate if you want to be
poor or there's an inflation rate if you
want to be rich
and the inflation rate if you want to be
poor is the cpi
or pce it's a it's like a market basket
of goods and services that don't include
the highly volatile energy and food and
they don't include housing and they
don't include college education and they
don't include stocks and bonds in early
retirement
and things like an art
so
that inflation rate is preached so often
that i think the entire population just
kind of internalized and says okay i
guess inflation is less than two percent
interest is zero percent i get a
negative real yield of minus two percent
i have 35 years i lose half my money
well i mean if you believe that then
then of course
it's a bad thing but it's not a it's not
a horrific thing but i i think sometime
sometime after the interest rates pegged
at zero i started thinking about
inflation
and i i saw inflation from the point of
view of ceo
if half your market cap was cash
and you went to an investor the investor
would have said hey look um we got 25
return last year on the s p 500 you're
getting zero percent return
that's a 25 cost to capital you're
burning if you have a billion dollars
you're burning 250 million dollars in 12
months
you're burning 20 million dollars a
month
okay so give it back to us so that so
the institutional investor would say to
the ceo
you know you're irresponsible to hold a
balance sheet of cash and credit give us
the money back
okay so now you're called between a rock
and a hard place you're going to give
the money back and be decapitalized
or you have to invest it in something
that's going to go up 24 a year
now and that takes you down this rabbit
hole
it turns out if you're an operating
company
and you want to invest in something
that's going to go up 24 a year uh
you and you buy a package of securities
you run into the sec 40 act and the sec
40 act caps you out at 40 of your assets
so if you had a billion dollars in
assets you couldn't hold more than 400
million dollars worth of s p indexes or
companies
okay so what do you do with the other
600 million dollars
exactly so so that now that you're here
and again we've got a lot of
microstrategy shareholders in the office
and you have
last last calculation was over seven
billion dollars in bitcoin
uh which at one stage i think yesterday
the day before that nearly exceeded the
market cap of microstrategy which means
it's uh
microstrategy's trading at a big
discount but what do you see as your
single biggest concern or risk for
bitcoin if anything like what really
keeps you a week awake at night now that
you're you've got such a basket of
bitcoin which we'll talk about in a
minute as to what that means in terms of
global share of bitcoin but by my
calculations you own now more than one
percent of all bitcoin on earth
i think uh bitcoins cross the event
horizon so it's going to be successful
um
[Music]
and uh i think that in the near term
i mean the only mistake you can make is
get levered 20 to one
long with a force liquidation on
volatility right yeah if you if you have
some kind of extremely levered position
and you could be forced liquidated maybe
you have a problem but if you have uh
permanent capital
then the real question is just at what
rate is it going to move up and what
kind of volatility will we have
i think that um
the major test
the major tests were it was the growth
was accelerated by march 2020 and the
covid pandemic response i i feel like
that
that combined with
if you look at the federal reserve they
went from inflating the money supply at
seven percent a year to inflating the
money supply 21 a year so if we when we
went from seven percent monetary
inflation to 21 monetary inflation in
the western world that was like pouring
gasoline on the fire right and then i
think that the election
if you recall i think bitcoin on
november it was trading 13 000
it was trading in the teens
the election was a big event
and the the incoming administration i
think a it it
uh it created some clarity about what
will happen in our monetary policy over
the next four years maybe the next eight
years
but b
it brought in a set of regulators that
are fairly progressive and and uh
you know gary gensler taught the class
at mit
so he spent three years studying this
and if you if you parse all the um all
the testimony of uh janet yellen and
gary gensler
your conclusion
is um that election brought in a
progressive set of regulators
that are that are that view satoshi's
innovation as real
and that think that bitcoin is a key uh
a key platform upon which to build a
21st century economy
and then the third
the third maturing event is the china
crackdown
because the the major fudd was well
china controls the majority of the hash
rate
and maybe this is a chinese thing and
and since china and the us are kind of
at odds over geopolitical agendas then
do we trust it and that the chinese if
they control 50 or more of the mining
industry that was a 20 billion dollar a
year industry they had half of it and it
was doubling every year and they
unilaterally exited the entire market
which meant that
all the mining rigs got shipped to the
west
the beneficiaries were well capitalized
north american bitcoin miners
uh all the chinese holders dumped their
bitcoin you know we picked up
500 million dollars of bitcoin in the
mid 30s another 450 million dollars of
bitcoin in the mid 40s
i would have been buying that stuff at
75 000
85 000
etc so the way i look at it is it was
about a billion dollar windfall half a
billion to a billion dollar windfall
just for our company
it was a mega windfall a 10 billion
dollar x 20 50 100 billion dollar
windfall for bitcoin miners in north
america
it's a trillion dollar geopolitical
mistake for china they won't figure it
out just how bad it is for about five
years
but as we look back at the end of the
decade and you calculate that it'll be
big but now back to your issue so what's
the threat to bitcoin
well bitcoin survived the pandemic
it institutionalized when microstrategy
bought bitcoin there were no publicly
com publicly traded companies holding it
now you have square and tesla and
marathon and microstrategy and 24 other
companies and 12 public bitcoin miners
and etfs okay so it institutionalized
it nationalized it westernized
right you have a world of six billion
people relying upon the western
technology stack which is the which is
the english language the u.s currency
western law
google apple amazon facebook
bitcoin
and then you have the eastern bloc which
sits on the chinese language the cny
and the stack of chinese
technology companies
and the like and you you can see that
power dynamic
and it was very important that bitcoin
slide in as the monetary protocol for
the west
and not be deemed as the monetary
protocol for the east yeah that's funny
because i always have a theory that you
know
nearly leaning into things like possible
black swan events i believe that if
there is a world war three heaven forbid
there is but if there is it's gonna be
digital in nature
and there's gonna be three underpinnings
of that world war three three currencies
it's gonna be the dollar reserve
currency of the world it's gonna be the
digital one
and then bitcoin so how have you ever
thought about the geopolitical nature of
how this could all shake out with these
underpinnings
and leaving in a black swan potential
i think that uh
that bitcoin is like that
universal digital property
right and i do agree if you look at the
if you look at the future of the world
and and how the mobile wave plays out
after we finish uploading our photos and
our relationships and our documents and
our books and our videos and our
whatevers to our phones
we upload our money and you'll have
eight billion people on the planet
and you'll have eight billion digital
wallets and they'll be sitting on
android and ios and maybe they'll be you
know the chinese the you know a chinese
operating system
and
that digital wallet will hold a mixture
of currencies and
assets
and or you can call them currencies and
properties if you wish but
the current the strongest currency of
the us dollar
and then the cny and then and and then
you'll have you'll have maybe a dozen
two dozen
the yen the euro you know if you have a
strong government
wherever there's a strong governmental
influence they will dictate a currency
which will be the medium of exchange
because you're going to use to pay your
taxes and it'll be the stable coin if
you will and the chinese have shown they
have the power to endorse the cny and
the u.s has the power to drive usd
um the weak currencies
there are 66 of them already gone
i don't they're 190 countries in the
world 66 are dollarized
66 and so there's another 66 that will
probably dollarize
maybe there'll be 10 that will go cny
right and then you'll see two dozen
you know i mean i think the japanese
will keep there again i mean i think the
europeans will keep their euro i mean if
the european union breaks up
then the euro collapses and then they'll
dollarize right and then you think of
england as an outlier then as well i
know what will happen to those guys
and you know venezuela they've already
lost i mean no one takes the boulevard
seriously
so
i yeah imagine you live in
argentina
you know you you've got like the peso
for when the government says you got to
pay it you got the dollar for when you
want to buy anything internationally
and then you've got the bitcoin
and and if i was smart
i would have one month of of expenses in
the strongest currency
one day of expenses in the weakest
currency
and the rest of my life my life savings
in the asset and bitcoin is the
strongest asset
now there may be other assets maybe
they'll tokenize the s p index so
they'll tokenize you know french stock
exchange companies or they'll tokenize
other forms of property
but
i think what's pretty clear is for the 6
billion people in the western world
the dollar will rise to the top is the
medium of exchange and the and the
bitcoin will rise to the top as the
store of value
and
that's it's a logical
stable point because you can trade
dollars with anybody in the world
everybody's built dollars into their
retail systems and there's no taxable
event
right so there's no there's no tax issue
of sending you know sending you money or
receiving money from you i think and
also dollars are depreciating at 15 20 a
year
right and we can debate whether it will
go back to seven percent or it'll say a
15 or 20 or 25 who knows but but dollars
are losing value at one to two percent a
month
bitcoin's accreting in value
and pesos are losing value at three or
four percent a month
the news today about turkish lira it's
you know it's collapsing it's certainly
double the rate of the dollar
and the boulevard is collapsing at four
percent five percent a month have you
thought about the conversion of
you know from the petrodollar to what i
call
the petro bitcoin if there is such a
thing uh like if you look at what iran
is doing what russia wants to do get off
the dollar et cetera do you believe
there will be a movement towards
denominating energy in bitcoin or some
other type of crypto or cbdc down the
line
ah it's interesting subject i mean i
i feel like
i mean there's a it's back to this
general idea of well are you gonna sell
teslas for bitcoin or not are you gonna
sell whatever you sell for bitcoin it
it's it captures the imagination of a
lot of people and from a marketing point
of view it generates a lot of sparks and
excitement
but
it seems to me like a better idea would
be
instead of trying to sell you a barrel
of oil for bitcoin
a better idea would be
take all my money
and buy bitcoin
like convert your entire balance sheet
to bitcoin right
for you know if you have 50 billion
dollars and it's
and it's sitting in dollars and
sovereign debt
i think the bigger idea will be what
happens when i take 100 billion dollars
of debt credit instruments and i sell it
for dollars and i take the dollars and i
swap them for bitcoin and i put
a hundred billion dollars of bitcoin on
my balance sheet
so
i think it's
it's it's pretty clear that bitcoin is
the universal monetary standard
about it's the universal store of value
but the issue is not really whether
people trade in dollars
the issue is how long do you hold the
dollars
right if if you sell me if you're gonna
sell me something
four million dollars
and i give you a million dollars and you
convert the million dollars into bitcoin
into 20 bitcoin
one minute later
then that was smart
and if you held a million dollars that
was stupid and if you held a million
dollars and invested in debt yielding
three percent interest while the
purchasing power of the dollar is losing
20 a year and you're minus 17 and you
held that for a decade that was unwise
right but the real question is how do
you manage your treasury everybody has
the ability
to manage their treasury and swap it
into hard assets if they wish to do so
i think in
in the next decade
it seems pretty clear like
why why fight the fed and like if i was
in china i would be buying and selling
and seeing why i'm not going to lay down
in front of that tank
i'm going to sell in that local currency
and then my issue is i'm going to want
to save in the highest form of property
and if i'm in if i'm dealing in the
western world the path of least
resistance that results in the best the
best outcome
is
as long as there is a functional
government in your mercantile sphere of
influence you should trade in the
currency of the functional government
if the entire government of zimbabwe
collapses
i trade in dollars
and and if no one takes dollars anymore
then i'll trade in sets
but i don't
i don't think we're getting there this
decade right so
so like anything could happen 20 30 40
50 years out
but i kind of feel like as long as there
are governmental entities
they're going to create their own
currencies
and you know if when the boulevard
collapses they'll create the new
boulevard
and the peso collapses they'll create
the new peso and at some point
people in the country will fight between
do i want the peso or the us dollar and
i i don't a lot of times people in the
bitcoin world feel like they need to
wade into that i don't think we need to
i think we can just
we're getting distracted by the question
of whether we should champion the peso
the boulevard or the dollar in in latin
america i think that the bigger question
is how do i have 100 of my balance sheet
in an asset that's appreciating
microstrategy by the way is
500 of our balance sheet isn't an asset
that's appreciated right we started with
500 million in in equity
and now we have seven billion in assets
right so
like it's not like five percent it's
like a hundred percent well maybe it's
200
if you're a wealthy person the strategy
would be
the strategy would be to borrow a
billion dollars
by 1.1 billion dollars
worth of property put up 100 million in
equity and and in essence you have one
thousand percent of your balance sheet
in property and then hope that the money
supply expands ten percent a year
because if it expands ten percent a year
you're going to make 100 million a year
in investment income and in 10 years
you'll have about 2.4 billion dollars in
property 1 billion dollars in debt with
accrued interest at 3 4 5 interest and
then you'll refinance the entire
building
and take out 500 million dollars at
three percent interest tax-free
right it's a property development
strategy right and anybody can do it
anywhere well i've got a model i'm
working on actually that looks at
forecasting the money supply expansion
and the debasement of the currency and
the future value of things like bitcoin
versus real estate etc i'll share it
with you because i know that is near and
dear to your heart but switching gears
for a second getting back to satoshi's
and why we are talking together is i got
your attention i am fascinated by supply
i fell in love with bitcoin in 2017
because of its completely scant scarce
supply
and not only that but the fact what
really fascinated me was the fact that
it was being lost and and in my
community i am on the receiving end of
an email at least once or twice a week
where people lose their seat phrase
where they ship bitcoin to the wrong
wallet lose it forever or a million
different reasons i'm not going to go
into those as well but i do want to talk
about supply and what you think of this
everybody talks about 21 million bitcoin
i have it on good account and authority
and i've been studying these numbers for
over
four years now i have a detailed list of
all the coins that i we know of that are
lost
and we have companies like new york
times and fortune magazine that estimate
between 3.7 million and four million are
definitely lost this is the satoshi lock
up 1.04 million there's people you know
tragic situations like mr pobescu who
drowned with 125 000 bitcoin instead
which is very equivalent to how much
microstrategy hold so you know the value
of that so the total lost to date or
irretrievable or gone forever is say
4.865 million bitcoin the mine today is
18.85 call it so the net balance is just
shy of 14 million but the real tragedy
is this
now
a lot of people believe like kane
research believe four percent of bitcoin
are lost per year i believe that's very
possible but i believe it's going to go
down over time so
using the kane digital research number
of four percent loss per year we could
fall down by the year 2048 that's as far
as i could go out to fit on the screen
but it goes out to 2140 if anybody's
interested in seeing this
we could have less than say 7 million
bitcoins in supply
20 30 years from now now if you assume
just one percent loss per annum and you
know when you p when you see people
going into supermarkets and they're
buying bitcoin from an atm they got a
piece of paper
you know you know a lot's gonna be lost
you know people that are stricken by
illness or car accidents or fall off a
skateboard or a windsurfer
or
you know whatever the circumstance
they lose it too um so just assuming the
one percent loss that would take us down
to about 12 and a half million so my
theory is we will never have more than
14 million bitcoin
and as a result of that by my math as
well
microstrategy
and you and your organization you own
over one percent of all bitcoin now my
big question is first of all do you
believe in that and second of all do you
believe other treasuries are a little
bit scared off because
you know mr sailor went in there and he
bought all the toys we don't want to
play that game or do you think they
don't care or do you think there's
enough supply for everybody
well um so
i'm i'm uh intrigued by your analysis
uh
the biggest the biggest question mark is
that and i buy into everything every
line item there the 3.7 million lost
coins
right that if it doesn't include satoshi
right then just getting your hand around
is that 3.7 or 2.7 would be my big
question i don't i haven't studied that
but i'm persuaded that you're right uh
you know within uh within the error
within the margin of error
and um
[Music]
we know the water law so it's just
really just a question of is that 3.7
million the number that's lost i agree
it's a deflationary currency and i i
expect it it's inevitable that more will
be lost
it's occurred to me by the way
that the ultimate act of charity
is to die with your private keys
and lose them
like if you're asking the question how
could i make a charitable contribution
to the human race
in a fair
responsible fashion such that the money
would be
put to good use
you know if you believe the market is
smarter than any individual and if you
if you believe in the natural order of
things and if you really believe in
bitcoin
then it's likely that the some entirety
of the world and all bitcoiners are
probably
smarter about using the world's
resources than you will be in your will
so if you simply died and buried your
keys
you know either accidentally or just
inevitably
then you'd be making a contribution to
everybody else in the entire network pro
rata
pretty fairly and then they would have
the benefit of that economic energy to
do whatever they felt was the
appropriate thing for the good of the
human race going forward so
i i'm fine with it i
i agree it doesn't really matter
to the success of bitcoin whether we
terminated 12 million or 13 million or
11 million right because
it's it's pretty divisible and and it'll
be infinitely divisible on the layer too
on the lightning network so
so um
we're what really matters is that it'd
be deflationary
and not inflationary and and no one be
able to meddle with it
um
yeah so the implication the other
implication is just
we all should buy bitcoin right exactly
and i have another model that should buy
bitcoin yeah that no more than 350 000
people on earth will never have more
than one whole bitcoin
and that is also deflationary over time
that will actually reduce down as you
know the george sources of the world and
the michael sailors of the world start
jumping into the fray
what was your second question the second
part of your question uh would do the
second question was regarding other
treasuries
do they get wired off if you've put all
the toys you know
no
i actually think that we started a
stampede of people putting it into their
treasury there
you couldn't have found a publicly
traded company with five million dollars
of bitcoin in august of 2020.
you couldn't have fell one
and if you look at what's going on right
now
there's got to be three dozen or more by
the end of this year
and
you've gone from less than five million
like one or two million on corporate
treasuries and this is publicly traded
companies not all companies
you've gone from a couple of million in
corporate treasuries
right to
15 billion to many many many billions
um the thing that's uh and you know
coinbase just said they had like 9 000
institutional accounts
and i talk to private companies all the
time i know lots of private companies
that are getting into it um i i know a
plumber who has bitcoin on this balance
sheet three employees
think about that so there's a lot out
there for sure
yeah yeah i
look i think in mark if you'd asked me
in february
of 2020
what i thought about bitcoin and would i
put it on my balance sheet
i would have said
i wouldn't even and buy it as a private
investor much less as a public fiduciary
right i mean
and i wouldn't be sure
you know i'd be like well isn't that one
of ten thousand cryptos and people are
all trading
so that's where it was with me
because
i didn't ever need to focus on it
yeah it's you don't need to embrace the
idea of a paradigm shift in in property
or energy or money or currency you don't
need to question basic deep-seated
values
in the absence of a war
right there's two ways that people
change one is they die
and the other is there's a war
right and that paradigm shift there are
two things that i didn't really buy into
one is the digital transformation of my
operations like not deeply for example
i would have fired people that did not
show up to the office in in february of
2020
but
by april of 2020
nobody could show up to the office and
we zoomed everywhere
and so in a matter of weeks we went
through a decade transformation or
thinking about
digital marketing digital sales digital
operations etc
and and i feel like that we had the same
jarring shift with our balance sheet
in february
my view was oh well
i guess we'll get two three percent
interest
on our money
and we'll we'll be conservative
and the inflation rate is two or three
percent
and you know wall street doesn't maybe
understand it but maybe i'll buy back
some stock
okay and by april
my world view was
the the nominal yield is zero the
inflation rate is minus 20 percent i'm
going to lose
300 million dollars in the next 36
months if i don't do something and
there's no hope if i continue with the
traditional strategy
and i have to take a risk
and so i i think that that was a that
was a jarring thing and that shook
everybody out of their slumber and now
from that point
look james i wanted to buy bitcoin
personally desperately i wanted to buy
as much as i could
it took me 12 weeks to get the account
and the kyc
to do it 12 weeks from the point that i
desperately wanted to do it this is an
individual you're very biting your nails
losing time afraid it'd all be sold out
yeah yeah like anxiety induced right and
i went and i bought huge amounts at like
9 500 a coin
and then from a corporate point of view
well it's another three months
because companies have
all sorts of other you know corporate
governance issues the accounting opinion
the legal opinions the the board opinion
the shareholder relations issues
so it's six months if you're in a raging
hurry and for me
it was important because more than like
half the market cap of the company was
cash
okay there aren't many publicly traded
companies where half their market cap is
cash and so i was sensitive to it and i
had sort of
when my stock got to seventy dollars a
share right or we're trading a hundred
twenty dollars a share and we've got
sixty dollars a share in cash and you're
just trading a one-times revenue
you're thinking i've been forsaken right
there's not much downside from here
there's only upside i should do
something
so i i think that um
that the first jolt came march 2020 and
we started in april 8 sorry in august of
of 2020 we were the first company to put
that 250 million dollar buy on the wire
so call that the beginning of year one
of of major corporate institutional
adoption now what's holding people back
uh a couple of things
one is yeah one is gap accounting
and the number one impediment to a
company buying large sums of bitcoin
would be indefinite intangible
accounting
because if i buy a billion
and it gets cut in half for a day
and then it goes up by a factor of 20.
under gap accounting i would show a 500
million operating loss and 500 million
on my balance sheet
but under under fair value accounting
i would show a 9 billion dollar
investment gain
and i would show 10 billion on my
balance sheet
so people talk about volatility being a
problem
but you've got different types of
volatility you've got you've got fair
value or economic volatility and then
you've got accounting or optical
volatility the optical volatility of the
accounting is much more pernicious
to a public company with a pristine gaap
p l and balance sheet and and in an
institutional environment where people
judge you
based upon your beauty like based upon
your conventional conventional behavior
i'm going to put a i'm going to put
report out and i'm going to tell
everyone that i generated eight dollars
a share in earnings and they go blank
okay that's good
or i'm going to print a report saying i
actually lost 16
and i had a 500 million dollar operating
loss and my operating business has lost
money for the first time in 20 years but
by the way we just made billions yes
it's so funny there was a similar
corollary um if you were looking for
financing for real estate six months ago
within a traditional bank you could have
millions in bitcoin
they see it as zero
but i i'm really concerned about time
and i i think i've got about eight more
questions to get through if that's
correct we still have about eight
minutes left i've i have plenty of time
okay
well maybe you can't there there's a oh
i can of course i can stay here let's
just get through let's go through your
questions okay
well two of them are kind of related to
what you spoke about being a fiduciary
one is do you see any regulator risk of
being a quasi etf in nature
and related to that kind of two-part
question is i always describe
microstrategy be more powerful than an
etf because you can play what i call
financial jiu-jitsu you've got so many
options to raise money issue shares
borrow against your holdings etcetera to
buy more
etfs can't do that so i see you as a
more powerful function of an etf but i'm
interesting number one
uh gensler believes in bitcoin he's a
good person to have in your camp i don't
see much regulatory risk but do you
believe there could be based on the
sheer amount of bitcoin that you hold in
second of all um
the second part which uh
i should completely forget on uh your
jiu jitsu capabilities to raise money to
be more powerful than any jf so what
we're not an etf we're not an atp we're
an operating company and it's very black
and white uh
an etf is a you know a sec fortiac
company that holds securities so you
would have to and like a future
a derivative is a security
and if they have net inflows of 500
million dollars they have to increase
their securities exposure by the 500
million dollars they have net outflows
they have to decrease their exposure
right so they're a finance company an
etp is also is
is also a finance company but they're
they're trading in property
right so if they have fi and so if
you're holding gold
property commodities gold
pork bellies
bitcoin is property
then if they had inflows they would
increase their exposure if they had
outflows they would reduce their
exposure
we're an operating company
we have a software business that
generates cash flow we generate revenue
we don't own securities we're not owning
the securities we're owning property
and i i could go and buy a billion
dollars worth of land in vegas
i could go and buy a billion dollars
worth of oil drilling rights or oil i
could buy a billion dollars worth of
bitcoin it doesn't make me an etf or an
atp it makes me a company that helps own
a lot of property and i can do it with
or without leverage
so our business so that's crystal clear
i mean there's not
there's and the point is
we're never going to have
a a bunch of people buy a billion
dollars extra of our stock and go and
buy the bitcoin with that stock because
we're not we're not uh
we're not balancing our asset positions
every day based upon the net inflows and
outflows what it means is
we can't we're a different entity that
if you're going to look at microstrategy
you have to ask the question well how
much cash flow will we generate
will we what will we do with the cash
flow right so if we're a company
generating cash flow when we buy bitcoin
with it then we're like a synthetic
miner right
mine a fiat miner miners generate
bitcoin every year based upon their
mining operations we generate bitcoin
every year based upon our software
operations there's really no difference
between
between um
buying 5000 bitcoin with cash
from software and mining 5 000 bitcoin
with mining equipment
there's still 5 000 bitcoin we you know
we got there a different way then the
question is do you keep the 5000 bitcoin
or do you sell it
right so
so we're leveraged long bitcoin play
right we uh we took our existing cash we
bought bitcoin
that you know if you look at it look at
our story james it's amusing
first we actually put out a press
release and we announced to the world
that we're going to we were going to go
through a treasury reserve analysis and
select the treasury reserve asset
and we would pick something and put 250
million into it so we're the first
company in the world that ever selected
proactively a new treasury reserve asset
and that was 250 million dollars worth
then we were the first company that did
a stock buyback
to buy bitcoin that was a dutch auction
so we did a 250 million dollar dutch
auction where we basically said we'll
buy your stock out or not
and
and that's the same as an equity
offering like if you felt like this the
company's strategy is worth more than
140 a share
then you didn't tender your shares and
we bought bitcoin but if you did think
the car if you didn't think the company
strategy was worth that you tender your
shares and you took the cash i remember
that distinctly that was a genius move
because there were a couple of
shareholders that didn't agree with the
direction isn't that fair to say we had
a good way to weed them out
well they didn't agree or they're just
afraid right i mean got anxiety so 60
million dollars got tendered and we
bought that stock back and the other 175
million that we had extra
at the end of the day
uh we bought bitcoin with
so that was the second move uh the third
was we issued convertible debt so as a
company we have the ability to issue
convertible debt which is
you know which is a way of harvesting
the volatility
of the equity markets and the volatility
of the options markets
and the equity opportunity and the
forward expectation in order to get
cheap capital
that was 1.7 billion dollars and you
know blended interest rate 25 basis
points so effectively zero cost
uh converts the first was struck at 398
the second one at fourteen hundred
thirty two dollars a share
so then we bought bitcoin with that
then you know then along the way we were
still raising cash or generating cash
from the core business
and we used that quarter approximately
doesn't it
yeah and then if like if our employees
issues if they exercise stock options
we generate we end up with cash flow
from stock options and we invest that in
bitcoin
and then finally you know the stock
traded down and bitcoin traded down
after the china exodus
right and we had the 60 000 crew
grinding down to thirty thousand
at that point it would have been
somewhat dilutive to issue a convert or
to issue equity
so then we basically did a junk bond we
did a senior secured note and we paid
six and eight percent interest and we
raised 500 million dollars
and we bought bitcoin with that in the
mid 30s
well then bitcoin started recover our
stock recovered
and we sold about 400
million dollars
worth of uh of stock and we bought
bitcoin in the mid 40s
and then we ended up with another 20
million in cash flow and i bought
another
chunk
with a bitcoin in the mid 40s so
looking forward
we have um
we have a lot of tools in our arsenal
yeah you know one tool is to issue more
converts the other tool is to generate
cash flow the third tool is to is to
do different types of senior secured
financing
and we have about six billion dollars
worth of bitcoin
maybe more i guess
that's not pledged as collateral
because the converts aren't secured
there's no collateral pledge against
converts those are unsecured notes for
1.7 billion
the 500 million dollars of debt
uh we said we're going to use bitcoin
we're going to use it to buy bitcoin and
we pledge the bitcoin so
we bought like 13 or 14 000 bitcoin with
that and that's pledged as collateral
against the note
but the remainder of our bitcoin
something almost a hundred thousand or
so i know ninety eight thousand ninety
nine thousand that's unpledged
so if if bitcoin is trading at north of
sixty thousand you've got six billion
dollars a collateral you could do
something with it
and and the the question is what would
you do with it well you either borrow
against it or you generate yield on it
or perhaps you can issue bonds against
it
right and these are all options so if
you look at
if you look at a our company going
forward
the real question is what's the
difference between buying a hundred
million dollars of bitcoin versus buying
a hundred million dollars of an etf
versus buying a hundred million dollars
worth of microstrategy
and the answer is
if you buy the bitcoin you own the
property on a bitcoin exchange
uh the the banking and the and the
collateralization of bitcoin isn't as
mature
so a lot of people probably would be
hard to borrow money easily against that
against the naked bitcoin property
um
maybe the impact to the futures etf will
bring about more demand for
borrowing bitcoin for the contango
effect
i'm sure i'm sure there's a couple of
hedge funds say
hey mr sailor can you let me 50 000
bitcoin i can make i can make 13 in a
month fast
yeah i think there'll be a lot of demand
for that yeah i think if you buy the 100
million of the etf you own a security
you don't own the property
uh having having a title the security in
some ways is a weaker property right
because you can't put a lien on it you
can't mortgage it you can't as easily
you know develop it
um but the advantage is it trades with
your prime broker
and you can and you can pledge it as
collateral in your collateral package so
most of the time if you've got a
security you can borrow against it at
like so
so for plus 50 basis points or libor
plus 50 or libor plus 100.
so there's a big benefit to people that
deal with prime brokers to have the
security not have the property
and then microstrategy is
the issue with microstrategy is you're
getting a leverage long play
right you buy a dollar bitcoin and it
goes to zero you lose a dollar if it
doubles you make a dollar
but when you buy a leveraged long pay if
it goes to zero you lose a dollar but if
it doubles you might triple your money
or quadruple your money right
so
it's a different thing and obviously
if you think the management team
can manage the operation
in a rational fashion you know you're
going to value the company at a premium
and if you think the management team
you know is not very rational you're
going to value the company at a discount
and
that's that's what keeps everybody you
know honest and and and keeps us focused
we have to make sure we manage the
opportunity rationally and i see that
now as well i've spent a lot of time my
life front running wall street because i
don't see certain things when i did my
first ever arbitrage video a
microstrategy stock saying this is a
no-brainer this is a synthetic long
everybody go do it
and it was uh
it says how why we're here talking today
but if you look at
the futures etf obviously it did suck a
little bit of oxygen out of the room
from things like gbdc and microstrategy
and i was talking about bitcoin proxies
when nobody even knew what they were
back in 2020
and i think that's it's very clear
that's happening right now but if a spot
etf hit the market do you think that
would suck additional oxygen i know
everything will gravitate towards proper
valuation
down the line just right now it's a very
good arbitrage opportunity as i see
for proxies like yourself do you see
that getting worse if any spot etf hits
um
i think that every single time another
company comes public
that's a bitcoin derivative that's that
has a relationship to bitcoin it's good
for bitcoin long term and even mid-term
um and near-term there's dislocations
right like paypal and square are plugged
into bitcoin system as quasi mini
exchanges as is coinbase yep right the
miners are plugged into bitcoin system
as security operators and every time a
miner comes public
hundreds of millions of dollars of
capital if not billions of dollars of
capital get locked into bitcoin
you see people like hut eight right
they're raising money but they're
huddling yes right when a public miner
raises a hundred million dollars it's
like a hundred million dollars of
capital locked up in bitcoin for the
next decade
when they buy a hundred million worth of
equipment that's locked up right
so
an etf is another form of of a bitcoin
company and it's a it's a company
creating an application of bitcoin
right the the hardcore bitcoiners they
don't get it they're like not your keys
not your coin this is awful
but what they don't realize is in a
decentralized economy everybody gets to
create their own applications on top of
bitcoin
you know and if el salvador wants to
adopt the bitcoin standard then el
salvador
becomes kind of a bitcoin derivative of
sort
and microstrategy stock is a bitcoin
derivative
but also microstrategy converts
microstrategy senior debt and
microstrategy calls and put options are
all bitcoin derivatives exactly
every single time another you know if
there's 16 etfs
it's the quants dream
right if you're if you're a quantitative
trader you build your program and you go
wow bitcoin is up but bitcoin futures
are mispriced in singapore but
microstrategy is mispriced against
microstrategy call options exactly the
microstrategy first convert is rich and
i can sell that but i can buy the second
convert but the etf is like trading at a
discount versus microstrategy so i'm
going to go ahead and write a program
that sells this and buys that and of
course at that point you have to
allocate capital yeah i found a way to
get a guaranteed eight percent a year
annual yield and then they go off to
somebody on wall street uh george soros
and they say
george i got a guaranteed eight percent
yield no risk you know i'm we're not
even taking a directional bet on bitcoin
but i need you to give me a billion
dollars
so that i can get you 180 million
dollars and i'll take two and 20 and
you'll get the others and you won't even
have to worry about whether bitcoin goes
up and goes down and george goes well
heck if you can do that why don't you
just take two or three billion dollars
of my money
and pretty soon there's a quant trader
creating side markets
and bitcoin derivatives and in order to
do that they have to lock up two billion
dollars of bitcoin yeah dave flabberg
asked me how wall street can't actually
value your company properly or even you
still see analysts on wall street
valuing tesla at a p e of a thousand i
mean
like it's the easiest calculation in the
world to figure out the actual true
value of
real companies real intrinsic value and
nobody seems to do the work and that
surprises me but you're dead right
that's going to change as the asset
class gets more mature
i believe that's exactly what's going to
happen you know one of my friends was
saying we're noting that you know
bitcoin's volatile even right now it's
bouncing around
and and i said well you know sometimes
you think you wish it would just trade
in a tight range plus or minus one
percent
but then if you look at it you realize
that
that volatility
it that volatility makes it anti-fragile
and the fact that you've got the
volatility bouncing around means that
some really smart 20 70 year old on a
computer goes i can actually lock in an
arbitrage here
and they go and they raise 50 million
from their friends and family and then
they do it and then they raise billions
and and and if it's
you want it to stay a bit volatile
because you end up creating
a hundred different hedge funds with 10
20 30 50 billion dollars in assets and
they're all
trying to close the volatility and
they're feeling like geniuses because
they're they're like haha microstrategy
your stock is mispriced versus haha like
okay fine well that means you're trading
500 million dollars of my stock every
day
and uh and maybe that means you're going
to put a synthetic short position on it
but that means that instead of the float
being 7 million it'll be 21 million and
that means eventually somebody's got to
buy back to 21 million
shares or do a collateral call and and
ultimately it's good for bitcoin it's
good for
everybody
and ask yourself the question how many
27 year olds in singapore
are setting up hedge funds to arbitrage
pricing imperfections in gold
the answer is none
i mean if you look at them gold silver
you know you're not going to trade them
you're not even in the equity market
you know
there's not a there's not an army of
people that want to raise tens of
billions of dollars to arbitrage
inefficiencies in apple stock
because it's just too monotonic you know
and so
what we've got here is is we've got more
options
and if they're perfectly priced
well i guess you got perfection and if
they're not perfectly priced you've got
optionality
and the optionality makes this the
world's greatest money market and it
makes it an opportunity
and ultimately anything that locks up
more bitcoin
right the etf's an application
microstrategy is an application and the
hedge fund person trading the etf versus
microstrategy is a third application
and it's like they say man you could say
whatever you want about me just spell my
name right exactly
in fact you said something that george a
thought in my brain
one was uh you are a synthetic miner now
i know it's very important for a
corporation to stick to its knitting and
yours is going to be mobile intelligence
and stuff but would
microstrategy ever consider mining per
se or is that way too off if not not
required
you know i i think everybody needs an
earning strategy and they need a savings
strategy an operation strategy and a
balance sheet strategy if you're a
dentist
and you can make 300 000 a year as a
then my best advice for you is
is build the biggest dental practice you
can
and make make sure you convert
your money into bitcoin as soon as you
it hits the the balance sheet
and
if you start thinking about if you love
bitcoin
and you start thinking about ways to
actually do better than just being long
bitcoin 100
my next advice for you is
sell equity in your dental practice
you know at 10 times or 20 times revenue
sell 6 million you know sell a million 2
million worth of equity or 6 million
worth of equity and buy bitcoin with
that
and if you can i would say why don't you
go and sell debt
maybe you can mortgage your dental
practice
if you're generating three hundred
thousand dollars a year in cash flow and
someone wants to loan you 10 million
dollars against it or say yeah 10
million dollars a 2 or 3 interest
then raise 10 million in debt and buy
bitcoin with that and then you'll have
instead of
three instead of three million in
bitcoin over a decade
you'll have 23 million dollars in
bitcoin over a decade and you'll have 20
million in bitcoin in the first month
and you know if you want to do something
stick to the knitting
the doing of something is either grow
your business
or leverage up your bit capitalize your
business and then convert it to bitcoin
that's a good idea i don't think you
know if you tell me you're the world's
greatest dentist i don't think you
should launch a mobile app to compete
with square cash yep
i don't think you should go and well
should i launch my own bitcoin
podcasting show michael
no
i think what you ought to do is be a
dentist and if you're a podcaster i
think you ought to run the world's
biggest most aggressive podcast and you
ought to you ought to if you can sell
equity in debt have at it mortgage the
business
but um but don't go into
a business that you don't have strategic
assets in
i mean i think if you're exelon
if you're a power company if you own
nuclear reactors
if you can go and borrow money
if you can borrow money at two percent
interest you know gold miners can borrow
money at one and a half to three percent
interest
if you can raise a billion dollars at
two percent interest then yeah you ought
to go and borrow a billion dollars and
buy bitcoin because bitcoin yields a
hundred percent interest yeah excellent
so use your assets right whatever your
assets are use your assets but do not
i don't think you should go into
businesses where you're the newcomer the
interloper you don't have any assets
just because you think it would be cool
to be in that business i totally agree i
got a hair brain scheme for you this is
going to be a curveball imagine you know
all these credit card companies are
paying rewards in bitcoin
would microstrategy ever consider paying
dividends in bitcoin i know it's your
pristine asset and you never sell and
everything else but how about that to
raise shareholder
stock price
yeah i know i don't think you really get
valued for it
i don't think i don't think you should
ever give up any bitcoin i think that if
you go forward
if you go forward a hundred years what's
one percent of all the money in the
world worth
exactly yeah
and that's i don't think you really need
to and by the way i would say i don't
think it's a good idea to pay dividends
at all
it for me a company that pays dividends
is a company that doesn't know what to
do with its money which means they can't
execute or operate let's take gold
miners right gold miners they oh they
mine a ton of gold they over mine the
gold they dump the gold on the market my
first view would be don't sell the gold
but they sell the gold driving the price
of gold down they over mine the gold and
they generate a big profit
50 margin so now they pay income tax
corporate income tax
so first they diluted the value the
supply the gold they drove down the
price the gold then they paid a massive
they also ran up their operating
expenses they also
moved down the marginal productivity
curve they found mines that cost a
thousand dollars per ounce instead of
500 an ounce so they're they're burning
up the environment burning up energy
dumping on the price of gold paying huge
amounts of taxes and then they dividend
out
then they pay off their debt
they pay down their debt and so when you
pay off a billion dollar note that costs
you three percent interest it's like
making a loan to the bank
in return for three percent interest
you're actually trading and you're
trading what could be an asset yielding
20 or 30 or 100
in order to get paid two percent
so paying off your your debt makes no
sense and then finally paying a dividend
is what they also do when you pay a
dividend not only did you pay the
corporate income tax not only did you
actually loan money to the bank
you also forced your shareholders to pay
a dividend tax on the on the proceeds
you got double taxed
yep okay so
so that's kind of like the behavior if
you didn't believe in your business if
you thought your asset was going to zero
and you wanted to be short gold
i would over mine it and i would pay
double taxes in order to get the cash
and you're really going like triple long
u.s dollar
triple long us dollar i had to i had to
i had to lower the price my selling
price
pay a corporate income tax
pay a dividend tax so i could go triple
long the us dollar
and so i don't think that makes sense i
think the opposite makes sense which is
you take all your cash flows
and you borrow as much as you can as
long as the cost of borrowing is an
order of magnitude less than the use of
proceeds
excellent
there's another thing that kind of
vexes me a little bit confuses my my
head if you look at the 130 in
treasuries around the world that pay
nothing in fact i think it's 30 trillion
pay negative return
and then you start taking taking into
account debasement
do you foresee a great reset and do you
believe that great reset could be
accelerated
by cbdc's going forward
uh not with a bang with a whimper i
don't think there's like a great reset
that implies that like someday everybody
comes to their senses and does something
i think there's way too much inertia in
the system i think a better a better
metaphor would be just like uh
you know a persistent you know
progressive transformation
you know i i think that of the 30
trillion in negative yielding debt 20
is whatever the number is 20 30 trillion
and it depends on how you that's how you
define negative yielding debt i would
define negative yielding debt as the
yield on the debt minus the monetary
inflation rate and if you define it that
way that means all credit
100 trillion dollars is all negative
yielding the only thing would be
yielding positive would be a junk bond
paying over 15 in my opinion like some
of the chinese bonds now that are being
used only
only a junk bond yielding more than 15
in the us dollar if you were an optimist
and believed that the monetary inflation
rate was going to dip below 15
but in fact you can make the argument
that the monetary inflation rate in
china is much more than 15
that's why they need capital controls
yeah right they're printing more money
than we are oh yeah right so europe is
sprinting more money than the fed
and so the monetary inflation rate
the the true inflation rate for an
investor investor inflation rate
it must be 20
in the u.s europe it must be
30 percent or something in china it must
be 40 percent in argentina it must be 50
plus in a lot of the developing world
and so there isn't really any credit
instrument that isn't negative yielding
the only and you can see
even if you look at the s p index james
the s p is up like 24 25 in a year
but if i i've been using that as a
surrogate for monetary inflation
but the truth is
that's probably under
estimating it i think the monetary
inflation rate is higher than the s p
yield
and the reason i think that is because
if you if the s if all 500 ceos in the s
p index
who are not able to issue any equity
or issue any debt in the last 12 months
then the price of the s p and the
espionage didn't change then the price
of the s p index might be a good
surrogate for the investor inflation
rate
but we know that the amount of debt
and the amount of equity that they have
issued is substantial which means that
they have diluted
that shareholder the value of a share in
the last 12 months which means that the
24 percent return has is deluded and the
true inflation rate is maybe 28 29
in that range it's it's it's in the
higher 20s i'm guessing
so
coming back to this issue what happens
with credit
it's all negative yielding but it's a
lot of it's locked up in institutions
and relationships that get reviewed once
every five years and once every three
years and once every year
and you know there's some
if i'm
75 years old and i have billions of
dollars with a money manager
i
might not even make a decision
for the next 15 years i might leave it
that way from 75 to 90
and i might i might creep at it very
slow so
there and if i'm
likewise if i'm a government
a government it might be a change in
administration before they would
consider our government is still holding
gold right
look at um i guess an interesting
surrogate or thing to look at would be
the rate at which sovereign wealth funds
or the rate at which central banks took
on etfs or or
s p 500 index funds or big tech into
their balance sheets
norway did it switzerland did it i guess
um
the emiratis right in the middle east
they did it
right if you would ask them do you guys
want a whole goal they would you know
kind of
laugh at you
but the u.s hasn't put s p index on
their balance sheet and that's been the
store of value for the last
20 years right 30 years
yep certainly the last 10 years
i get there was a period right where
maybe sovereign debt was a store of
value i think before the great financial
crisis up until 2008
i it used to be remember when italian
bonds yielded six percent interest
i mean it used to be that you could get
governmental bonds that yielded four
five six seven eight nine percent
interest and you could tell yourself
that
the inflation is seven percent and
they're yielding seven percent and
there's a store of value there
but after 2009
all those sovereign yields in europe
they all got pegged to zero
or you know one and it's pretty obvious
that the money supply is expanding at
seven the sovereign debts yielding one
there's no store value anymore and every
intelligent investor rotated onto
the s p index or the nasdaq
but you know if you look at that
the only way you can theoretically hold
value in an environment where the money
supply is expanding at ten percent is to
grow your cash flows 20
so
all of the gains in the s p index or
nasdaq all come down to fang stocks
apple amazon facebook google microsoft
the top nine of the top 500 generated 80
of the return over the last five years
that's ridiculous there is no so another
way to say it is before bitcoin the
store of value is a big tech monopoly
[Music]
okay a big tech monopoly a dominant
digital network
dematerializing something
with a monopoly that's the only store of
value left credit sovereign debt is not
a store of value
value stocks are not a store of value
utility companies with dividend yields
they're not stores of value because they
can't grow their cash flows 20 a year
now growing your cash flow 20 a year
while the fed prints 7 more money works
for amazon for a decade but if the fed
prints 20 more money
you have to grow your cash flows 30 35 a
year
what kind of company can grow its cash
flows 30 a year for the next five years
other than two or three names that we
know very well
okay well that's it excellent excellent
point i got two final questions for you
and i know your time is so precious and
i'm so grateful that you spent so much
time with me but first of all a big
piece of the channel i have here is to
give back to help
people find financial freedom so they
can make the world a better place help
support animals and children's hospital
and stuff like that but i know you have
the sailor academy but what do you plan
to give back to society as you become
one of the wealthiest people on the
planet because i've done the numbers and
i think you will be
it's it's a no-brainer 10 years from now
you'll be like uh well you know what
you're going to be
um but
what what is your greater
mission in life well that means 20 years
from now
the plan for the sailor
academy is converted into a full-fledged
degree granting university
and we're on the path to do that and
we'll continue to expand the range of
certifications and degrees and and
every jurisdiction
progressively
and that's my sole error right my
primary error so when i die
whatever i've got we'll go to finance
that mission and the mission is free
education for everybody forever
i think that i think there will probably
be a lot of
need for education
forever for everybody and
you know as you know you can polish
those courses and you can you can polish
the certificates and you can improve the
quality and you can
translate and
in the ideal world you'll be able to go
k through phd in every subject for free
anywhere
so
and maybe even spin off what i call the
importance of kind of nano degrees in
very specialist areas like create a
python programmer in 12 weeks that can
go earn a living for his family in
bangladesh or something like that i
think there's a huge call for that type
of education too
yeah our most popular courses are one of
them is python
you know where uh english is a second
language
computer networking
c plus plus i mean a lot of things you
can learn online and then we've got some
short courses like 12-hour courses
like bitcoin for everybody
and then we've got some you know pretty
deep physics electromagnetics
full semester courses and
and lots of different areas we touch but
i mean there's that's a bottomless well
of opportunity exactly and people are
always gonna
they're always gonna need uh more
education so and as the world becomes
kind of
more digital and people start moving
with their feet and
labor will become much more mobile it
already is
uh so i think that type of education
will give everybody on earth a chance to
get ahead which is very
i admirable
one final fun question for you
this might be a hard one so what
question would you want to be asked that
you haven't been asked before
um what's
what's the most important thing
to teach your children
[Music]
so if i if i kick that back to you
what's the most important thing to teach
your children i'll tell my thoughts
about education one
i i studied a lot of math
but the you know most math calculus
calculus of variations linear algebra
all of the advanced mathematics
for the most part they've all been
automated the one type of math that
everybody on earth needs every day maybe
every
hour of the day
is a practical applied statistics
right we have we have infinite
information
and i think that most people they're not
able to parse information that is
statistically significant
so as to construct an appropriate model
and so they get mired
in inappropriate models right it's like
they just can't think flexibly enough so
i throw enough numbers at you and you
think that they matter but they don't
matter
you know
you're playing the piano in the back of
a of an airplane and i kick you out of
the airplane and there's someone that
wants to talk about the you know the
music theory and somebody else wants to
talk about how notes
move through the air and vibration and
sound and somebody else wants to talk
about the aerodynamics of how you're
going to whip through the air as you
fall but the only you know model that
matters right like the
newton's law and 9.8 meters a second and
you're going to smack into the earth is
going to kill you
and all the other things don't matter
all the other models are irrelevant
there's one thing that's relevant
and i think that all the time i just see
people fixating
i give you all the data on the earth the
history of all of humanity and i ask you
to pick the best stock or the best
whatever
or the best strategy
but there's an asteroid gonna hit the
earth gonna kill everybody and the thing
that matters is the asteroid okay the
asteroid's gonna hit the earth right
what matters well how big is it
and when will it hit the earth
and if it's gonna hit the earth in 10
billion years and if it's the size of a
nickel
it doesn't matter and if it's going to
hit the earth in eight minutes
and it's the size of the moon
nothing else matters exactly and i think
that we have a lot of people that
struggle all the time in the world
whether it's buying something or selling
something or communicating something or
interpreting something or or making a
rational investment decision
and
and they think that applying extreme
amounts of mathematics to extremely
large data sets
somehow give them comfort and certainty
about what to do
but i i just all the time i see people
that they come to conclusions i think
they don't have the common sense to come
in from the cold
because they're extrapolating from
mountains of data with the wrong model
that has been rendered irrelevant
by one change in circumstance
exactly i love that in fact i'm not sure
if you know but the slogan for this
channel is math money and freedom first
of all to use math
to generate money to buy freedom and do
better so that's the whole vision so i'm
so happy you said that at the end but
you're dead right some people focus on
the wrong things you see people who
you know make two hundred thousand
dollars a year and they're encumbered in
three hundred thousand dollars of
student debt and they're leasing a car
that they can't afford for a thousand
bucks a month and they live in a house
that's just beyond their means and
you know people just don't have the
discipline to focus on the right things
sometimes so
there's just so much potential out there
through education and math i'm glad you
said that
so well that's i think the end of the
show um i do have a model i'm working on
that i know will be very interesting to
you so maybe we can touch base
another time
if you ever have time but it'll be about
money supply and debasement and
purchasing power and the price of
bitcoin over time and other assets and
it's just for people to really wrap
their heads around where things are
going to be because when i see people
you know buying an annuity
with half a million dollars it took them
40 years to earn half a million dollars
they buy annuity that pays three percent
that they hope that will keep them alive
for the next 25 years it's heartbreaking
this is the type of math that we need to
get out there to people not to go down
these wrong paths so
so happy to hear it sounds exciting i'd
love to see it i'll look forward to that
next discussion and i'm so honored to
talk to you in person been a huge fan
for a long time as you know and have a
great balance of the week and thank you
so much michael saylor thank you james
thanks for having me my pleasure bye