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Why Bitcoin: Michael Saylor Interview - #Bitcoin #LostCoins $MSTR #Future #Math Education + more

InvestAnswers · 2021-10-21 · 1h 20m · View on YouTube →

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hey everybody

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this is a long video one i've been

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looking forward to for quite some time

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with one of my heroes michael saylor

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we're gonna cover a lot of ground we're

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gonna talk about

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giving back to bitcoin to investing to

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the markets to the great reset and a ton

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of other material

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i know many of you may not have an hour

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and a half to look at it all but

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detailed chapters are below

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hope you like it enjoy let's go i'll do

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a very brief intro everybody kind of

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knows who you are but

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let's see how this goes and i'm very

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very excited so first of all um we

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should be on gallery view

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everybody i would like to introduce

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michael saylor this is a man who is very

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special

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i've been tracking him for nearly 15

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years due to some of my history

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mr sailor knew what business

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intelligence was before anybody even

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knew what it was he's a visionary mit

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grad he knew mobile was the future again

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before anybody else knew what it was and

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he has this uncanny ability to weave

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together the best metaphors on earth in

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my opinion he's been the ceo of

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microstrategy since the late 80s and

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i've been again following him for a long

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time in fact my youtube channel actually

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became famous because of microstrategy

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and i

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identified what he was doing and felt

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everyone needs to get their hands on the

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stock so the rest is history and that

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all happened late 2020 and now we have

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thousands of viewers that are

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microstrategy shareholders either in

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their isas in the uk or iras in the u.s

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or the brokerage accounts all over the

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world so

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big thank you for being here mr

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sailor happy to be here james okay this

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is going to be an interesting

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conversation we're going to go fast

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we're going to cover a lot of cool

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ground but first of all i have a little

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treat for you

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and i'm going to share something with

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you just as a little surprise as you

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know a big part of this channel is

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really to give back and

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i know you are a nautical person to some

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extent

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and we contribute a lot of money we make

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to back to nature and children's

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hospitals and stuff so we adopted a

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whale this is the second last one

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available we named him sailor

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this is part of uh

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the oceanic society that helps keep our

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ocean safe clean free from plastic

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protect wildlife and it tracks sailor a

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humpback whale and cedar likes to float

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between the oregon coast and the gulf of

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mexico believe it or not and spends a

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lot of time hanging out at the farallon

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islands which is not far from where i am

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a lot of the time so

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sailor is yours i hope i hope you like

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that i hope you don't mind

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so that's awesome

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i might need to track sailor of the

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whale

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exactly well you are a whale yourself

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so it might be hard to keep up with

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we'll see

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exactly so again let's uh jump in i'll

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start at the beginning um first of all

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i'm not going to talk about

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adiabatic processes which i know are

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near and dear to your heart but we will

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talk about your view of the world so

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with your book the mobile wave you

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nailed the future of technology 10 years

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it was uncanny how you did i remember

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one of the the key things you you

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equated

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comp pcs

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a solid

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laptops to a liquid and mobile to a gas

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now i that really resonated with me a

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decade ago and i thought wow the future

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is mobile the future search etc but do

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you believe you have nailed the next big

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thing as in bitcoin

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like you were really the first to spot

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the mobile wave wow you think bitcoin is

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the next technology wave satoshi nailed

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it with the help of a bunch of you know

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cyberpunks um so

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i watched it for 10 years but i was

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really focused i think the last decade

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was the mobile wave for me and i was

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focused on

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digital transformations

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of in the first era i almost feel like

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there's

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there's one segment of the mobile wave

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which is uh the digital transformation

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of music and books

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and communications and relationships and

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retail

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and that describes the rise of youtube

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and google and facebook and amazon and

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apple

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and i think the second stage

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of the mobile wave is digital

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transformation of money

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the you know digital transformation of

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property digital property

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digital money digital assets

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and ultimately i think i think the the

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most theoretically pure

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you know metaphor here is digital energy

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and uh i i think of course that second

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that second uh

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epic of the mobile wave is got to be 10x

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bigger an order of magnitude bigger than

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the first epic

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because if you ask anybody you know what

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what's the value of having all your

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movies and all your photographs and all

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your books and all your documents on

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your iphone

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that's i guess it's a decent amount it's

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enough to make apple a two trillion

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dollar company but then if you asked

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what's the value of all your property

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and all your money

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and all your wealth what if that was on

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your iphone

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and yeah what would apple be worth then

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if all the property

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and all the money

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in the world was stored

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on an iphone or an android phone and i

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know it's a it's a little bit limiting

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to just talk about them but but mobile

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devices are so ubiquitous and i think

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it's inevitable that 8 billion people on

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the planet will all have at least one

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mobile device and it'll be the

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primary device they use to manipulate

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software and

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what could be more powerful software

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than than software that moves energy or

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property or money

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your world's collided then

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your mobile world with your digital

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world smashed together is that fair to

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i think so

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awesome so when when did

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when did the penny drop for you

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for bitcoin to invest and i know you you

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know an awful lot about finance and

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economics and bonds and treasuries and

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everything else but when was the like

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the aha moment when the penny dropped

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i think it's um

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march

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of 2020.

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i if you look at um

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the thing that's so difficult to grasp

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about bitcoin

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as a digital transformation is

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it's it's a complete paradigm shift in

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your view of

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money

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property and energy

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and uh

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you know when when you have something

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which totally transforms your world it

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takes a while to give up the old world

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just about every company on earth has a

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balance sheet and every fam you know a

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conventional family a conventional

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company a conservatively run

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organization runs on a balance sheet of

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cash and credit

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most central banks have cash and credit

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a long time ago people had some gold on

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their balance sheet but gold it probably

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peaked 1914

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and it disappeared and then what you saw

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companies running treasuries with cash

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and a lot of credit and the credit is

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short term sovereign debt

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or other high you know triple a rated

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credit instruments

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and and the way you ran a business was

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you're either a finance company a wall

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street company and you and you can't

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really invest in cash

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maybe you invest in credit fixed income

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you're either credit or you're or you

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invest in equity

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and then if you're an operating company

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like a software company

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you hold your treasury in cash and short

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dated sovereign debt and that's just the

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way it was for 30 40 years and you were

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doing that for nearly 30 years yourself

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within microstrategy that's how we were

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in our company but through the decade

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from 2010 to 2020

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it got harder and harder

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for us to to grow the company

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we were generating a lot of cash but

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somehow the stock got mired

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and and you know if you have a bunch of

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cash and it's generating five percent

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interest

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and someone told you the inflation rate

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was two percent you might think that

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sort of you're getting ahead

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but when when interest rates went to

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zero percent

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i think the first shoe to drop was

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interest rates are zero or that's not

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good the second the second uh knock was

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they're gonna stay at zero for four

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years

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okay there's no hope of generating

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interest on cash and credit

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well that caused me to stop and say well

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how bad is it

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okay well the how about it how bad is it

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it depends upon your definition of

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inflation

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i believe there's two inflation rates

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there's inflation rate if you want to be

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poor or there's an inflation rate if you

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want to be rich

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and the inflation rate if you want to be

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poor is the cpi

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or pce it's a it's like a market basket

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of goods and services that don't include

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the highly volatile energy and food and

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they don't include housing and they

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don't include college education and they

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don't include stocks and bonds in early

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retirement

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and things like an art

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that inflation rate is preached so often

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that i think the entire population just

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kind of internalized and says okay i

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guess inflation is less than two percent

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interest is zero percent i get a

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negative real yield of minus two percent

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i have 35 years i lose half my money

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well i mean if you believe that then

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then of course

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it's a bad thing but it's not a it's not

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a horrific thing but i i think sometime

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sometime after the interest rates pegged

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at zero i started thinking about

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inflation

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and i i saw inflation from the point of

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view of ceo

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if half your market cap was cash

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and you went to an investor the investor

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would have said hey look um we got 25

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return last year on the s p 500 you're

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getting zero percent return

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that's a 25 cost to capital you're

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burning if you have a billion dollars

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you're burning 250 million dollars in 12

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months

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you're burning 20 million dollars a

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month

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okay so give it back to us so that so

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the institutional investor would say to

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the ceo

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you know you're irresponsible to hold a

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balance sheet of cash and credit give us

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the money back

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okay so now you're called between a rock

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and a hard place you're going to give

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the money back and be decapitalized

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or you have to invest it in something

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that's going to go up 24 a year

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now and that takes you down this rabbit

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it turns out if you're an operating

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company

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and you want to invest in something

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that's going to go up 24 a year uh

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you and you buy a package of securities

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you run into the sec 40 act and the sec

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40 act caps you out at 40 of your assets

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so if you had a billion dollars in

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assets you couldn't hold more than 400

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million dollars worth of s p indexes or

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companies

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okay so what do you do with the other

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600 million dollars

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exactly so so that now that you're here

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and again we've got a lot of

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microstrategy shareholders in the office

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and you have

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last last calculation was over seven

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billion dollars in bitcoin

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uh which at one stage i think yesterday

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the day before that nearly exceeded the

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market cap of microstrategy which means

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it's uh

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microstrategy's trading at a big

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discount but what do you see as your

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single biggest concern or risk for

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bitcoin if anything like what really

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keeps you a week awake at night now that

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you're you've got such a basket of

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bitcoin which we'll talk about in a

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minute as to what that means in terms of

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global share of bitcoin but by my

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calculations you own now more than one

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percent of all bitcoin on earth

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i think uh bitcoins cross the event

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horizon so it's going to be successful

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[Music]

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and uh i think that in the near term

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i mean the only mistake you can make is

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get levered 20 to one

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long with a force liquidation on

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volatility right yeah if you if you have

0:12:42

some kind of extremely levered position

0:12:45

and you could be forced liquidated maybe

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you have a problem but if you have uh

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permanent capital

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then the real question is just at what

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rate is it going to move up and what

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kind of volatility will we have

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i think that um

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the major test

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the major tests were it was the growth

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was accelerated by march 2020 and the

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covid pandemic response i i feel like

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that combined with

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if you look at the federal reserve they

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went from inflating the money supply at

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seven percent a year to inflating the

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money supply 21 a year so if we when we

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went from seven percent monetary

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inflation to 21 monetary inflation in

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the western world that was like pouring

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gasoline on the fire right and then i

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think that the election

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if you recall i think bitcoin on

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november it was trading 13 000

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it was trading in the teens

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the election was a big event

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and the the incoming administration i

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think a it it

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uh it created some clarity about what

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will happen in our monetary policy over

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the next four years maybe the next eight

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years

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but b

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it brought in a set of regulators that

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are fairly progressive and and uh

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you know gary gensler taught the class

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at mit

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so he spent three years studying this

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and if you if you parse all the um all

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the testimony of uh janet yellen and

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gary gensler

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your conclusion

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is um that election brought in a

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progressive set of regulators

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that are that are that view satoshi's

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innovation as real

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and that think that bitcoin is a key uh

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a key platform upon which to build a

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21st century economy

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and then the third

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the third maturing event is the china

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crackdown

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because the the major fudd was well

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china controls the majority of the hash

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and maybe this is a chinese thing and

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and since china and the us are kind of

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at odds over geopolitical agendas then

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do we trust it and that the chinese if

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they control 50 or more of the mining

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industry that was a 20 billion dollar a

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year industry they had half of it and it

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was doubling every year and they

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unilaterally exited the entire market

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which meant that

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all the mining rigs got shipped to the

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the beneficiaries were well capitalized

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north american bitcoin miners

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uh all the chinese holders dumped their

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bitcoin you know we picked up

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500 million dollars of bitcoin in the

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mid 30s another 450 million dollars of

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bitcoin in the mid 40s

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i would have been buying that stuff at

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75 000

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85 000

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etc so the way i look at it is it was

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about a billion dollar windfall half a

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billion to a billion dollar windfall

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just for our company

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it was a mega windfall a 10 billion

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dollar x 20 50 100 billion dollar

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windfall for bitcoin miners in north

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america

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it's a trillion dollar geopolitical

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mistake for china they won't figure it

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out just how bad it is for about five

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years

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but as we look back at the end of the

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decade and you calculate that it'll be

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big but now back to your issue so what's

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the threat to bitcoin

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well bitcoin survived the pandemic

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it institutionalized when microstrategy

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bought bitcoin there were no publicly

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com publicly traded companies holding it

0:16:27

now you have square and tesla and

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marathon and microstrategy and 24 other

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companies and 12 public bitcoin miners

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and etfs okay so it institutionalized

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it nationalized it westernized

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right you have a world of six billion

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people relying upon the western

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technology stack which is the which is

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the english language the u.s currency

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western law

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google apple amazon facebook

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bitcoin

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twitter

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and then you have the eastern bloc which

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sits on the chinese language the cny

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and the stack of chinese

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technology companies

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and the like and you you can see that

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power dynamic

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and it was very important that bitcoin

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slide in as the monetary protocol for

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the west

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and not be deemed as the monetary

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protocol for the east yeah that's funny

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because i always have a theory that you

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nearly leaning into things like possible

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black swan events i believe that if

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there is a world war three heaven forbid

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there is but if there is it's gonna be

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digital in nature

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and there's gonna be three underpinnings

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of that world war three three currencies

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it's gonna be the dollar reserve

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currency of the world it's gonna be the

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digital one

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and then bitcoin so how have you ever

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thought about the geopolitical nature of

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how this could all shake out with these

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underpinnings

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and leaving in a black swan potential

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i think that uh

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that bitcoin is like that

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universal digital property

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right and i do agree if you look at the

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if you look at the future of the world

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and and how the mobile wave plays out

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after we finish uploading our photos and

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our relationships and our documents and

0:18:16

our books and our videos and our

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whatevers to our phones

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we upload our money and you'll have

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eight billion people on the planet

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and you'll have eight billion digital

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wallets and they'll be sitting on

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android and ios and maybe they'll be you

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know the chinese the you know a chinese

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operating system

0:18:38

that digital wallet will hold a mixture

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of currencies and

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assets

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and or you can call them currencies and

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properties if you wish but

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the current the strongest currency of

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the us dollar

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and then the cny and then and and then

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you'll have you'll have maybe a dozen

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two dozen

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the yen the euro you know if you have a

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strong government

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wherever there's a strong governmental

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influence they will dictate a currency

0:19:08

which will be the medium of exchange

0:19:09

because you're going to use to pay your

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taxes and it'll be the stable coin if

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you will and the chinese have shown they

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have the power to endorse the cny and

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the u.s has the power to drive usd

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um the weak currencies

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there are 66 of them already gone

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i don't they're 190 countries in the

0:19:27

world 66 are dollarized

0:19:29

66 and so there's another 66 that will

0:19:32

probably dollarize

0:19:34

maybe there'll be 10 that will go cny

0:19:37

right and then you'll see two dozen

0:19:40

you know i mean i think the japanese

0:19:42

will keep there again i mean i think the

0:19:43

europeans will keep their euro i mean if

0:19:46

the european union breaks up

0:19:48

then the euro collapses and then they'll

0:19:50

dollarize right and then you think of

0:19:52

england as an outlier then as well i

0:19:54

know what will happen to those guys

0:19:57

and you know venezuela they've already

0:19:59

lost i mean no one takes the boulevard

0:20:01

seriously

0:20:03

i yeah imagine you live in

0:20:05

argentina

0:20:06

you know you you've got like the peso

0:20:08

for when the government says you got to

0:20:09

pay it you got the dollar for when you

0:20:11

want to buy anything internationally

0:20:14

and then you've got the bitcoin

0:20:16

and and if i was smart

0:20:18

i would have one month of of expenses in

0:20:21

the strongest currency

0:20:23

one day of expenses in the weakest

0:20:25

currency

0:20:26

and the rest of my life my life savings

0:20:28

in the asset and bitcoin is the

0:20:30

strongest asset

0:20:32

now there may be other assets maybe

0:20:33

they'll tokenize the s p index so

0:20:35

they'll tokenize you know french stock

0:20:37

exchange companies or they'll tokenize

0:20:39

other forms of property

0:20:42

i think what's pretty clear is for the 6

0:20:44

billion people in the western world

0:20:46

the dollar will rise to the top is the

0:20:48

medium of exchange and the and the

0:20:50

bitcoin will rise to the top as the

0:20:52

store of value

0:20:56

that's it's a logical

0:20:58

stable point because you can trade

0:21:01

dollars with anybody in the world

0:21:03

everybody's built dollars into their

0:21:05

retail systems and there's no taxable

0:21:07

event

0:21:08

right so there's no there's no tax issue

0:21:11

of sending you know sending you money or

0:21:13

receiving money from you i think and

0:21:16

also dollars are depreciating at 15 20 a

0:21:21

right and we can debate whether it will

0:21:23

go back to seven percent or it'll say a

0:21:24

15 or 20 or 25 who knows but but dollars

0:21:28

are losing value at one to two percent a

0:21:30

month

0:21:31

bitcoin's accreting in value

0:21:33

and pesos are losing value at three or

0:21:35

four percent a month

0:21:37

the news today about turkish lira it's

0:21:39

you know it's collapsing it's certainly

0:21:41

double the rate of the dollar

0:21:44

and the boulevard is collapsing at four

0:21:46

percent five percent a month have you

0:21:48

thought about the conversion of

0:21:50

you know from the petrodollar to what i

0:21:53

the petro bitcoin if there is such a

0:21:55

thing uh like if you look at what iran

0:21:58

is doing what russia wants to do get off

0:22:00

the dollar et cetera do you believe

0:22:02

there will be a movement towards

0:22:03

denominating energy in bitcoin or some

0:22:06

other type of crypto or cbdc down the

0:22:10

ah it's interesting subject i mean i

0:22:12

i feel like

0:22:18

i mean there's a it's back to this

0:22:18

general idea of well are you gonna sell

0:22:20

teslas for bitcoin or not are you gonna

0:22:22

sell whatever you sell for bitcoin it

0:22:25

it's it captures the imagination of a

0:22:27

lot of people and from a marketing point

0:22:29

of view it generates a lot of sparks and

0:22:30

excitement

0:22:33

it seems to me like a better idea would

0:22:36

instead of trying to sell you a barrel

0:22:39

of oil for bitcoin

0:22:41

a better idea would be

0:22:43

take all my money

0:22:45

and buy bitcoin

0:22:46

like convert your entire balance sheet

0:22:49

to bitcoin right

0:22:51

for you know if you have 50 billion

0:22:53

dollars and it's

0:22:55

and it's sitting in dollars and

0:22:57

sovereign debt

0:22:59

i think the bigger idea will be what

0:23:01

happens when i take 100 billion dollars

0:23:03

of debt credit instruments and i sell it

0:23:06

for dollars and i take the dollars and i

0:23:08

swap them for bitcoin and i put

0:23:10

a hundred billion dollars of bitcoin on

0:23:12

my balance sheet

0:23:14

i think it's

0:23:15

it's it's pretty clear that bitcoin is

0:23:17

the universal monetary standard

0:23:20

about it's the universal store of value

0:23:24

but the issue is not really whether

0:23:25

people trade in dollars

0:23:28

the issue is how long do you hold the

0:23:30

dollars

0:23:31

right if if you sell me if you're gonna

0:23:34

sell me something

0:23:36

four million dollars

0:23:38

and i give you a million dollars and you

0:23:40

convert the million dollars into bitcoin

0:23:42

into 20 bitcoin

0:23:44

one minute later

0:23:46

then that was smart

0:23:48

and if you held a million dollars that

0:23:50

was stupid and if you held a million

0:23:53

dollars and invested in debt yielding

0:23:55

three percent interest while the

0:23:56

purchasing power of the dollar is losing

0:23:58

20 a year and you're minus 17 and you

0:24:01

held that for a decade that was unwise

0:24:05

right but the real question is how do

0:24:06

you manage your treasury everybody has

0:24:09

the ability

0:24:10

to manage their treasury and swap it

0:24:12

into hard assets if they wish to do so

0:24:16

i think in

0:24:17

in the next decade

0:24:19

it seems pretty clear like

0:24:22

why why fight the fed and like if i was

0:24:25

in china i would be buying and selling

0:24:27

and seeing why i'm not going to lay down

0:24:29

in front of that tank

0:24:31

i'm going to sell in that local currency

0:24:33

and then my issue is i'm going to want

0:24:36

to save in the highest form of property

0:24:38

and if i'm in if i'm dealing in the

0:24:40

western world the path of least

0:24:42

resistance that results in the best the

0:24:45

best outcome

0:24:47

as long as there is a functional

0:24:49

government in your mercantile sphere of

0:24:51

influence you should trade in the

0:24:53

currency of the functional government

0:24:55

if the entire government of zimbabwe

0:24:57

collapses

0:25:00

i trade in dollars

0:25:02

and and if no one takes dollars anymore

0:25:04

then i'll trade in sets

0:25:07

but i don't

0:25:08

i don't think we're getting there this

0:25:09

decade right so

0:25:11

so like anything could happen 20 30 40

0:25:14

50 years out

0:25:15

but i kind of feel like as long as there

0:25:17

are governmental entities

0:25:20

they're going to create their own

0:25:23

currencies

0:25:25

and you know if when the boulevard

0:25:26

collapses they'll create the new

0:25:28

boulevard

0:25:29

and the peso collapses they'll create

0:25:31

the new peso and at some point

0:25:33

people in the country will fight between

0:25:35

do i want the peso or the us dollar and

0:25:39

i i don't a lot of times people in the

0:25:41

bitcoin world feel like they need to

0:25:42

wade into that i don't think we need to

0:25:44

i think we can just

0:25:46

we're getting distracted by the question

0:25:48

of whether we should champion the peso

0:25:50

the boulevard or the dollar in in latin

0:25:52

america i think that the bigger question

0:25:55

is how do i have 100 of my balance sheet

0:26:00

in an asset that's appreciating

0:26:03

microstrategy by the way is

0:26:05

500 of our balance sheet isn't an asset

0:26:08

that's appreciated right we started with

0:26:11

500 million in in equity

0:26:14

and now we have seven billion in assets

0:26:18

right so

0:26:20

like it's not like five percent it's

0:26:22

like a hundred percent well maybe it's

0:26:24

if you're a wealthy person the strategy

0:26:26

would be

0:26:28

the strategy would be to borrow a

0:26:29

billion dollars

0:26:31

by 1.1 billion dollars

0:26:34

worth of property put up 100 million in

0:26:37

equity and and in essence you have one

0:26:40

thousand percent of your balance sheet

0:26:42

in property and then hope that the money

0:26:45

supply expands ten percent a year

0:26:48

because if it expands ten percent a year

0:26:50

you're going to make 100 million a year

0:26:51

in investment income and in 10 years

0:26:53

you'll have about 2.4 billion dollars in

0:26:57

property 1 billion dollars in debt with

0:27:00

accrued interest at 3 4 5 interest and

0:27:03

then you'll refinance the entire

0:27:05

building

0:27:06

and take out 500 million dollars at

0:27:08

three percent interest tax-free

0:27:11

right it's a property development

0:27:12

strategy right and anybody can do it

0:27:15

anywhere well i've got a model i'm

0:27:16

working on actually that looks at

0:27:17

forecasting the money supply expansion

0:27:20

and the debasement of the currency and

0:27:22

the future value of things like bitcoin

0:27:24

versus real estate etc i'll share it

0:27:26

with you because i know that is near and

0:27:28

dear to your heart but switching gears

0:27:29

for a second getting back to satoshi's

0:27:33

and why we are talking together is i got

0:27:35

your attention i am fascinated by supply

0:27:38

i fell in love with bitcoin in 2017

0:27:41

because of its completely scant scarce

0:27:44

supply

0:27:45

and not only that but the fact what

0:27:47

really fascinated me was the fact that

0:27:50

it was being lost and and in my

0:27:52

community i am on the receiving end of

0:27:54

an email at least once or twice a week

0:27:56

where people lose their seat phrase

0:27:58

where they ship bitcoin to the wrong

0:27:59

wallet lose it forever or a million

0:28:02

different reasons i'm not going to go

0:28:03

into those as well but i do want to talk

0:28:05

about supply and what you think of this

0:28:07

everybody talks about 21 million bitcoin

0:28:10

i have it on good account and authority

0:28:11

and i've been studying these numbers for

0:28:14

four years now i have a detailed list of

0:28:17

all the coins that i we know of that are

0:28:19

and we have companies like new york

0:28:21

times and fortune magazine that estimate

0:28:23

between 3.7 million and four million are

0:28:25

definitely lost this is the satoshi lock

0:28:27

up 1.04 million there's people you know

0:28:30

tragic situations like mr pobescu who

0:28:32

drowned with 125 000 bitcoin instead

0:28:35

which is very equivalent to how much

0:28:37

microstrategy hold so you know the value

0:28:39

of that so the total lost to date or

0:28:43

irretrievable or gone forever is say

0:28:45

4.865 million bitcoin the mine today is

0:28:48

18.85 call it so the net balance is just

0:28:52

shy of 14 million but the real tragedy

0:28:55

is this

0:28:56

a lot of people believe like kane

0:28:58

research believe four percent of bitcoin

0:29:00

are lost per year i believe that's very

0:29:02

possible but i believe it's going to go

0:29:04

down over time so

0:29:06

using the kane digital research number

0:29:08

of four percent loss per year we could

0:29:10

fall down by the year 2048 that's as far

0:29:13

as i could go out to fit on the screen

0:29:14

but it goes out to 2140 if anybody's

0:29:17

interested in seeing this

0:29:18

we could have less than say 7 million

0:29:21

bitcoins in supply

0:29:24

20 30 years from now now if you assume

0:29:26

just one percent loss per annum and you

0:29:27

know when you p when you see people

0:29:29

going into supermarkets and they're

0:29:30

buying bitcoin from an atm they got a

0:29:32

piece of paper

0:29:33

you know you know a lot's gonna be lost

0:29:36

you know people that are stricken by

0:29:37

illness or car accidents or fall off a

0:29:40

skateboard or a windsurfer

0:29:43

you know whatever the circumstance

0:29:45

they lose it too um so just assuming the

0:29:47

one percent loss that would take us down

0:29:49

to about 12 and a half million so my

0:29:51

theory is we will never have more than

0:29:53

14 million bitcoin

0:29:55

and as a result of that by my math as

0:29:58

microstrategy

0:30:00

and you and your organization you own

0:30:01

over one percent of all bitcoin now my

0:30:04

big question is first of all do you

0:30:05

believe in that and second of all do you

0:30:07

believe other treasuries are a little

0:30:09

bit scared off because

0:30:11

you know mr sailor went in there and he

0:30:13

bought all the toys we don't want to

0:30:14

play that game or do you think they

0:30:16

don't care or do you think there's

0:30:18

enough supply for everybody

0:30:21

well um so

0:30:24

i'm i'm uh intrigued by your analysis

0:30:29

the biggest the biggest question mark is

0:30:31

that and i buy into everything every

0:30:34

line item there the 3.7 million lost

0:30:37

coins

0:30:38

right that if it doesn't include satoshi

0:30:41

right then just getting your hand around

0:30:43

is that 3.7 or 2.7 would be my big

0:30:46

question i don't i haven't studied that

0:30:49

but i'm persuaded that you're right uh

0:30:51

you know within uh within the error

0:30:55

within the margin of error

0:30:57

and um

0:30:58

[Music]

0:31:00

we know the water law so it's just

0:31:01

really just a question of is that 3.7

0:31:04

million the number that's lost i agree

0:31:06

it's a deflationary currency and i i

0:31:09

expect it it's inevitable that more will

0:31:11

be lost

0:31:13

it's occurred to me by the way

0:31:15

that the ultimate act of charity

0:31:23

is to die with your private keys

0:31:23

and lose them

0:31:25

like if you're asking the question how

0:31:27

could i make a charitable contribution

0:31:30

to the human race

0:31:32

in a fair

0:31:34

responsible fashion such that the money

0:31:37

would be

0:31:38

put to good use

0:31:41

you know if you believe the market is

0:31:43

smarter than any individual and if you

0:31:47

if you believe in the natural order of

0:31:49

things and if you really believe in

0:31:51

bitcoin

0:31:52

then it's likely that the some entirety

0:31:55

of the world and all bitcoiners are

0:31:57

probably

0:31:58

smarter about using the world's

0:32:00

resources than you will be in your will

0:32:04

so if you simply died and buried your

0:32:08

you know either accidentally or just

0:32:11

inevitably

0:32:12

then you'd be making a contribution to

0:32:14

everybody else in the entire network pro

0:32:18

pretty fairly and then they would have

0:32:21

the benefit of that economic energy to

0:32:23

do whatever they felt was the

0:32:26

appropriate thing for the good of the

0:32:27

human race going forward so

0:32:31

i i'm fine with it i

0:32:34

i agree it doesn't really matter

0:32:37

to the success of bitcoin whether we

0:32:39

terminated 12 million or 13 million or

0:32:42

11 million right because

0:32:44

it's it's pretty divisible and and it'll

0:32:48

be infinitely divisible on the layer too

0:32:50

on the lightning network so

0:32:53

so um

0:32:54

we're what really matters is that it'd

0:32:57

be deflationary

0:32:58

and not inflationary and and no one be

0:33:01

able to meddle with it

0:33:05

yeah so the implication the other

0:33:07

implication is just

0:33:09

we all should buy bitcoin right exactly

0:33:12

and i have another model that should buy

0:33:13

bitcoin yeah that no more than 350 000

0:33:16

people on earth will never have more

0:33:18

than one whole bitcoin

0:33:20

and that is also deflationary over time

0:33:22

that will actually reduce down as you

0:33:24

know the george sources of the world and

0:33:26

the michael sailors of the world start

0:33:28

jumping into the fray

0:33:30

what was your second question the second

0:33:32

part of your question uh would do the

0:33:34

second question was regarding other

0:33:35

treasuries

0:33:37

do they get wired off if you've put all

0:33:39

the toys you know

0:33:42

i actually think that we started a

0:33:44

stampede of people putting it into their

0:33:46

treasury there

0:33:47

you couldn't have found a publicly

0:33:49

traded company with five million dollars

0:33:51

of bitcoin in august of 2020.

0:33:54

you couldn't have fell one

0:33:55

and if you look at what's going on right

0:33:59

there's got to be three dozen or more by

0:34:01

the end of this year

0:34:04

you've gone from less than five million

0:34:07

like one or two million on corporate

0:34:09

treasuries and this is publicly traded

0:34:11

companies not all companies

0:34:13

you've gone from a couple of million in

0:34:15

corporate treasuries

0:34:17

right to

0:34:18

15 billion to many many many billions

0:34:22

um the thing that's uh and you know

0:34:24

coinbase just said they had like 9 000

0:34:26

institutional accounts

0:34:28

and i talk to private companies all the

0:34:30

time i know lots of private companies

0:34:32

that are getting into it um i i know a

0:34:35

plumber who has bitcoin on this balance

0:34:37

sheet three employees

0:34:39

think about that so there's a lot out

0:34:41

there for sure

0:34:43

yeah yeah i

0:34:44

look i think in mark if you'd asked me

0:34:46

in february

0:34:48

of 2020

0:34:49

what i thought about bitcoin and would i

0:34:51

put it on my balance sheet

0:34:53

i would have said

0:34:54

i wouldn't even and buy it as a private

0:34:57

investor much less as a public fiduciary

0:35:00

right i mean

0:35:01

and i wouldn't be sure

0:35:04

you know i'd be like well isn't that one

0:35:05

of ten thousand cryptos and people are

0:35:07

all trading

0:35:08

so that's where it was with me

0:35:11

because

0:35:12

i didn't ever need to focus on it

0:35:15

yeah it's you don't need to embrace the

0:35:18

idea of a paradigm shift in in property

0:35:22

or energy or money or currency you don't

0:35:25

need to question basic deep-seated

0:35:27

values

0:35:28

in the absence of a war

0:35:31

right there's two ways that people

0:35:32

change one is they die

0:35:34

and the other is there's a war

0:35:37

right and that paradigm shift there are

0:35:39

two things that i didn't really buy into

0:35:41

one is the digital transformation of my

0:35:43

operations like not deeply for example

0:35:47

i would have fired people that did not

0:35:49

show up to the office in in february of

0:35:54

by april of 2020

0:35:57

nobody could show up to the office and

0:35:58

we zoomed everywhere

0:36:00

and so in a matter of weeks we went

0:36:03

through a decade transformation or

0:36:05

thinking about

0:36:06

digital marketing digital sales digital

0:36:09

operations etc

0:36:10

and and i feel like that we had the same

0:36:13

jarring shift with our balance sheet

0:36:16

in february

0:36:17

my view was oh well

0:36:20

i guess we'll get two three percent

0:36:21

interest

0:36:22

on our money

0:36:24

and we'll we'll be conservative

0:36:28

and the inflation rate is two or three

0:36:29

percent

0:36:31

and you know wall street doesn't maybe

0:36:33

understand it but maybe i'll buy back

0:36:35

some stock

0:36:36

okay and by april

0:36:39

my world view was

0:36:41

the the nominal yield is zero the

0:36:44

inflation rate is minus 20 percent i'm

0:36:46

going to lose

0:36:48

300 million dollars in the next 36

0:36:51

months if i don't do something and

0:36:54

there's no hope if i continue with the

0:36:56

traditional strategy

0:36:58

and i have to take a risk

0:37:00

and so i i think that that was a that

0:37:02

was a jarring thing and that shook

0:37:04

everybody out of their slumber and now

0:37:07

from that point

0:37:09

look james i wanted to buy bitcoin

0:37:11

personally desperately i wanted to buy

0:37:13

as much as i could

0:37:14

it took me 12 weeks to get the account

0:37:17

and the kyc

0:37:19

to do it 12 weeks from the point that i

0:37:21

desperately wanted to do it this is an

0:37:23

individual you're very biting your nails

0:37:25

losing time afraid it'd all be sold out

0:37:28

yeah yeah like anxiety induced right and

0:37:31

i went and i bought huge amounts at like

0:37:33

9 500 a coin

0:37:36

and then from a corporate point of view

0:37:38

well it's another three months

0:37:41

because companies have

0:37:42

all sorts of other you know corporate

0:37:44

governance issues the accounting opinion

0:37:46

the legal opinions the the board opinion

0:37:49

the shareholder relations issues

0:37:52

so it's six months if you're in a raging

0:37:55

hurry and for me

0:37:58

it was important because more than like

0:38:00

half the market cap of the company was

0:38:04

okay there aren't many publicly traded

0:38:06

companies where half their market cap is

0:38:08

cash and so i was sensitive to it and i

0:38:11

had sort of

0:38:13

when my stock got to seventy dollars a

0:38:15

share right or we're trading a hundred

0:38:17

twenty dollars a share and we've got

0:38:18

sixty dollars a share in cash and you're

0:38:20

just trading a one-times revenue

0:38:23

you're thinking i've been forsaken right

0:38:25

there's not much downside from here

0:38:27

there's only upside i should do

0:38:29

something

0:38:30

so i i think that um

0:38:32

that the first jolt came march 2020 and

0:38:36

we started in april 8 sorry in august of

0:38:40

of 2020 we were the first company to put

0:38:42

that 250 million dollar buy on the wire

0:38:45

so call that the beginning of year one

0:38:48

of of major corporate institutional

0:38:50

adoption now what's holding people back

0:38:54

uh a couple of things

0:38:57

one is yeah one is gap accounting

0:39:00

and the number one impediment to a

0:39:03

company buying large sums of bitcoin

0:39:05

would be indefinite intangible

0:39:06

accounting

0:39:08

because if i buy a billion

0:39:09

and it gets cut in half for a day

0:39:13

and then it goes up by a factor of 20.

0:39:16

under gap accounting i would show a 500

0:39:18

million operating loss and 500 million

0:39:21

on my balance sheet

0:39:22

but under under fair value accounting

0:39:25

i would show a 9 billion dollar

0:39:28

investment gain

0:39:30

and i would show 10 billion on my

0:39:32

balance sheet

0:39:33

so people talk about volatility being a

0:39:36

problem

0:39:37

but you've got different types of

0:39:39

volatility you've got you've got fair

0:39:41

value or economic volatility and then

0:39:43

you've got accounting or optical

0:39:45

volatility the optical volatility of the

0:39:48

accounting is much more pernicious

0:39:51

to a public company with a pristine gaap

0:39:54

p l and balance sheet and and in an

0:39:57

institutional environment where people

0:39:59

judge you

0:40:00

based upon your beauty like based upon

0:40:03

your conventional conventional behavior

0:40:07

i'm going to put a i'm going to put

0:40:09

report out and i'm going to tell

0:40:10

everyone that i generated eight dollars

0:40:13

a share in earnings and they go blank

0:40:15

okay that's good

0:40:17

or i'm going to print a report saying i

0:40:18

actually lost 16

0:40:22

and i had a 500 million dollar operating

0:40:24

loss and my operating business has lost

0:40:26

money for the first time in 20 years but

0:40:29

by the way we just made billions yes

0:40:31

it's so funny there was a similar

0:40:33

corollary um if you were looking for

0:40:35

financing for real estate six months ago

0:40:38

within a traditional bank you could have

0:40:41

millions in bitcoin

0:40:43

they see it as zero

0:40:45

but i i'm really concerned about time

0:40:47

and i i think i've got about eight more

0:40:49

questions to get through if that's

0:40:51

correct we still have about eight

0:40:52

minutes left i've i have plenty of time

0:40:56

well maybe you can't there there's a oh

0:40:58

i can of course i can stay here let's

0:41:00

just get through let's go through your

0:41:01

questions okay

0:41:02

well two of them are kind of related to

0:41:04

what you spoke about being a fiduciary

0:41:06

one is do you see any regulator risk of

0:41:08

being a quasi etf in nature

0:41:12

and related to that kind of two-part

0:41:14

question is i always describe

0:41:16

microstrategy be more powerful than an

0:41:18

etf because you can play what i call

0:41:20

financial jiu-jitsu you've got so many

0:41:22

options to raise money issue shares

0:41:25

borrow against your holdings etcetera to

0:41:27

buy more

0:41:28

etfs can't do that so i see you as a

0:41:31

more powerful function of an etf but i'm

0:41:33

interesting number one

0:41:34

uh gensler believes in bitcoin he's a

0:41:37

good person to have in your camp i don't

0:41:39

see much regulatory risk but do you

0:41:41

believe there could be based on the

0:41:43

sheer amount of bitcoin that you hold in

0:41:45

second of all um

0:41:47

the second part which uh

0:41:49

i should completely forget on uh your

0:41:51

jiu jitsu capabilities to raise money to

0:41:53

be more powerful than any jf so what

0:41:56

we're not an etf we're not an atp we're

0:41:58

an operating company and it's very black

0:42:01

and white uh

0:42:03

an etf is a you know a sec fortiac

0:42:07

company that holds securities so you

0:42:09

would have to and like a future

0:42:13

a derivative is a security

0:42:15

and if they have net inflows of 500

0:42:18

million dollars they have to increase

0:42:20

their securities exposure by the 500

0:42:22

million dollars they have net outflows

0:42:25

they have to decrease their exposure

0:42:26

right so they're a finance company an

0:42:28

etp is also is

0:42:31

is also a finance company but they're

0:42:33

they're trading in property

0:42:35

right so if they have fi and so if

0:42:37

you're holding gold

0:42:39

property commodities gold

0:42:41

pork bellies

0:42:43

bitcoin is property

0:42:45

then if they had inflows they would

0:42:47

increase their exposure if they had

0:42:49

outflows they would reduce their

0:42:51

exposure

0:42:52

we're an operating company

0:42:54

we have a software business that

0:42:56

generates cash flow we generate revenue

0:42:59

we don't own securities we're not owning

0:43:01

the securities we're owning property

0:43:03

and i i could go and buy a billion

0:43:05

dollars worth of land in vegas

0:43:08

i could go and buy a billion dollars

0:43:11

worth of oil drilling rights or oil i

0:43:13

could buy a billion dollars worth of

0:43:15

bitcoin it doesn't make me an etf or an

0:43:18

atp it makes me a company that helps own

0:43:21

a lot of property and i can do it with

0:43:23

or without leverage

0:43:25

so our business so that's crystal clear

0:43:28

i mean there's not

0:43:29

there's and the point is

0:43:31

we're never going to have

0:43:33

a a bunch of people buy a billion

0:43:35

dollars extra of our stock and go and

0:43:36

buy the bitcoin with that stock because

0:43:39

we're not we're not uh

0:43:41

we're not balancing our asset positions

0:43:44

every day based upon the net inflows and

0:43:45

outflows what it means is

0:43:48

we can't we're a different entity that

0:43:50

if you're going to look at microstrategy

0:43:52

you have to ask the question well how

0:43:54

much cash flow will we generate

0:43:57

will we what will we do with the cash

0:43:59

flow right so if we're a company

0:44:01

generating cash flow when we buy bitcoin

0:44:03

with it then we're like a synthetic

0:44:04

miner right

0:44:06

mine a fiat miner miners generate

0:44:09

bitcoin every year based upon their

0:44:10

mining operations we generate bitcoin

0:44:13

every year based upon our software

0:44:15

operations there's really no difference

0:44:17

between

0:44:19

between um

0:44:20

buying 5000 bitcoin with cash

0:44:24

from software and mining 5 000 bitcoin

0:44:27

with mining equipment

0:44:29

there's still 5 000 bitcoin we you know

0:44:32

we got there a different way then the

0:44:34

question is do you keep the 5000 bitcoin

0:44:36

or do you sell it

0:44:38

right so

0:44:40

so we're leveraged long bitcoin play

0:44:43

right we uh we took our existing cash we

0:44:46

bought bitcoin

0:44:49

that you know if you look at it look at

0:44:50

our story james it's amusing

0:44:54

first we actually put out a press

0:44:55

release and we announced to the world

0:44:57

that we're going to we were going to go

0:44:58

through a treasury reserve analysis and

0:45:02

select the treasury reserve asset

0:45:04

and we would pick something and put 250

0:45:06

million into it so we're the first

0:45:08

company in the world that ever selected

0:45:10

proactively a new treasury reserve asset

0:45:12

and that was 250 million dollars worth

0:45:15

then we were the first company that did

0:45:16

a stock buyback

0:45:18

to buy bitcoin that was a dutch auction

0:45:21

so we did a 250 million dollar dutch

0:45:23

auction where we basically said we'll

0:45:24

buy your stock out or not

0:45:28

and that's the same as an equity

0:45:30

offering like if you felt like this the

0:45:32

company's strategy is worth more than

0:45:33

140 a share

0:45:35

then you didn't tender your shares and

0:45:37

we bought bitcoin but if you did think

0:45:39

the car if you didn't think the company

0:45:41

strategy was worth that you tender your

0:45:43

shares and you took the cash i remember

0:45:45

that distinctly that was a genius move

0:45:46

because there were a couple of

0:45:48

shareholders that didn't agree with the

0:45:50

direction isn't that fair to say we had

0:45:52

a good way to weed them out

0:45:54

well they didn't agree or they're just

0:45:55

afraid right i mean got anxiety so 60

0:45:59

million dollars got tendered and we

0:46:00

bought that stock back and the other 175

0:46:04

million that we had extra

0:46:06

at the end of the day

0:46:07

uh we bought bitcoin with

0:46:10

so that was the second move uh the third

0:46:12

was we issued convertible debt so as a

0:46:15

company we have the ability to issue

0:46:18

convertible debt which is

0:46:20

you know which is a way of harvesting

0:46:22

the volatility

0:46:24

of the equity markets and the volatility

0:46:27

of the options markets

0:46:29

and the equity opportunity and the

0:46:32

forward expectation in order to get

0:46:33

cheap capital

0:46:35

that was 1.7 billion dollars and you

0:46:38

know blended interest rate 25 basis

0:46:40

points so effectively zero cost

0:46:44

uh converts the first was struck at 398

0:46:47

the second one at fourteen hundred

0:46:49

thirty two dollars a share

0:46:50

so then we bought bitcoin with that

0:46:53

then you know then along the way we were

0:46:55

still raising cash or generating cash

0:46:58

from the core business

0:46:59

and we used that quarter approximately

0:47:01

doesn't it

0:47:02

yeah and then if like if our employees

0:47:04

issues if they exercise stock options

0:47:07

we generate we end up with cash flow

0:47:09

from stock options and we invest that in

0:47:12

bitcoin

0:47:13

and then finally you know the stock

0:47:15

traded down and bitcoin traded down

0:47:18

after the china exodus

0:47:20

right and we had the 60 000 crew

0:47:23

grinding down to thirty thousand

0:47:25

at that point it would have been

0:47:26

somewhat dilutive to issue a convert or

0:47:29

to issue equity

0:47:31

so then we basically did a junk bond we

0:47:33

did a senior secured note and we paid

0:47:35

six and eight percent interest and we

0:47:38

raised 500 million dollars

0:47:40

and we bought bitcoin with that in the

0:47:42

mid 30s

0:47:44

well then bitcoin started recover our

0:47:46

stock recovered

0:47:48

and we sold about 400

0:47:51

million dollars

0:47:53

worth of uh of stock and we bought

0:47:55

bitcoin in the mid 40s

0:47:57

and then we ended up with another 20

0:47:59

million in cash flow and i bought

0:48:01

another

0:48:02

chunk

0:48:03

with a bitcoin in the mid 40s so

0:48:07

looking forward

0:48:12

we have um

0:48:12

we have a lot of tools in our arsenal

0:48:14

yeah you know one tool is to issue more

0:48:16

converts the other tool is to generate

0:48:18

cash flow the third tool is to is to

0:48:21

do different types of senior secured

0:48:23

financing

0:48:25

and we have about six billion dollars

0:48:27

worth of bitcoin

0:48:29

maybe more i guess

0:48:31

that's not pledged as collateral

0:48:34

because the converts aren't secured

0:48:37

there's no collateral pledge against

0:48:39

converts those are unsecured notes for

0:48:41

1.7 billion

0:48:43

the 500 million dollars of debt

0:48:45

uh we said we're going to use bitcoin

0:48:47

we're going to use it to buy bitcoin and

0:48:49

we pledge the bitcoin so

0:48:51

we bought like 13 or 14 000 bitcoin with

0:48:54

that and that's pledged as collateral

0:48:56

against the note

0:48:58

but the remainder of our bitcoin

0:48:59

something almost a hundred thousand or

0:49:02

so i know ninety eight thousand ninety

0:49:04

nine thousand that's unpledged

0:49:06

so if if bitcoin is trading at north of

0:49:09

sixty thousand you've got six billion

0:49:11

dollars a collateral you could do

0:49:13

something with it

0:49:14

and and the the question is what would

0:49:17

you do with it well you either borrow

0:49:18

against it or you generate yield on it

0:49:20

or perhaps you can issue bonds against

0:49:23

right and these are all options so if

0:49:26

you look at

0:49:27

if you look at a our company going

0:49:29

forward

0:49:30

the real question is what's the

0:49:32

difference between buying a hundred

0:49:34

million dollars of bitcoin versus buying

0:49:36

a hundred million dollars of an etf

0:49:38

versus buying a hundred million dollars

0:49:39

worth of microstrategy

0:49:44

and the answer is

0:49:45

if you buy the bitcoin you own the

0:49:46

property on a bitcoin exchange

0:49:50

uh the the banking and the and the

0:49:52

collateralization of bitcoin isn't as

0:49:54

mature

0:49:56

so a lot of people probably would be

0:49:58

hard to borrow money easily against that

0:50:00

against the naked bitcoin property

0:50:04

maybe the impact to the futures etf will

0:50:07

bring about more demand for

0:50:09

borrowing bitcoin for the contango

0:50:11

effect

0:50:12

i'm sure i'm sure there's a couple of

0:50:13

hedge funds say

0:50:15

hey mr sailor can you let me 50 000

0:50:17

bitcoin i can make i can make 13 in a

0:50:20

month fast

0:50:21

yeah i think there'll be a lot of demand

0:50:23

for that yeah i think if you buy the 100

0:50:25

million of the etf you own a security

0:50:27

you don't own the property

0:50:29

uh having having a title the security in

0:50:32

some ways is a weaker property right

0:50:34

because you can't put a lien on it you

0:50:37

can't mortgage it you can't as easily

0:50:39

you know develop it

0:50:41

um but the advantage is it trades with

0:50:44

your prime broker

0:50:45

and you can and you can pledge it as

0:50:47

collateral in your collateral package so

0:50:49

most of the time if you've got a

0:50:51

security you can borrow against it at

0:50:53

like so

0:50:54

so for plus 50 basis points or libor

0:50:57

plus 50 or libor plus 100.

0:51:00

so there's a big benefit to people that

0:51:02

deal with prime brokers to have the

0:51:04

security not have the property

0:51:06

and then microstrategy is

0:51:09

the issue with microstrategy is you're

0:51:10

getting a leverage long play

0:51:12

right you buy a dollar bitcoin and it

0:51:14

goes to zero you lose a dollar if it

0:51:16

doubles you make a dollar

0:51:17

but when you buy a leveraged long pay if

0:51:19

it goes to zero you lose a dollar but if

0:51:21

it doubles you might triple your money

0:51:22

or quadruple your money right

0:51:26

it's a different thing and obviously

0:51:29

if you think the management team

0:51:31

can manage the operation

0:51:33

in a rational fashion you know you're

0:51:36

going to value the company at a premium

0:51:38

and if you think the management team

0:51:40

you know is not very rational you're

0:51:42

going to value the company at a discount

0:51:46

that's that's what keeps everybody you

0:51:49

know honest and and and keeps us focused

0:51:51

we have to make sure we manage the

0:51:53

opportunity rationally and i see that

0:51:55

now as well i've spent a lot of time my

0:51:57

life front running wall street because i

0:51:59

don't see certain things when i did my

0:52:01

first ever arbitrage video a

0:52:03

microstrategy stock saying this is a

0:52:04

no-brainer this is a synthetic long

0:52:06

everybody go do it

0:52:07

and it was uh

0:52:09

it says how why we're here talking today

0:52:12

but if you look at

0:52:14

the futures etf obviously it did suck a

0:52:16

little bit of oxygen out of the room

0:52:18

from things like gbdc and microstrategy

0:52:20

and i was talking about bitcoin proxies

0:52:22

when nobody even knew what they were

0:52:24

back in 2020

0:52:25

and i think that's it's very clear

0:52:28

that's happening right now but if a spot

0:52:30

etf hit the market do you think that

0:52:32

would suck additional oxygen i know

0:52:34

everything will gravitate towards proper

0:52:36

valuation

0:52:37

down the line just right now it's a very

0:52:39

good arbitrage opportunity as i see

0:52:42

for proxies like yourself do you see

0:52:44

that getting worse if any spot etf hits

0:52:49

i think that every single time another

0:52:52

company comes public

0:52:54

that's a bitcoin derivative that's that

0:52:57

has a relationship to bitcoin it's good

0:52:59

for bitcoin long term and even mid-term

0:53:02

um and near-term there's dislocations

0:53:05

right like paypal and square are plugged

0:53:07

into bitcoin system as quasi mini

0:53:10

exchanges as is coinbase yep right the

0:53:13

miners are plugged into bitcoin system

0:53:16

as security operators and every time a

0:53:18

miner comes public

0:53:20

hundreds of millions of dollars of

0:53:21

capital if not billions of dollars of

0:53:23

capital get locked into bitcoin

0:53:26

you see people like hut eight right

0:53:28

they're raising money but they're

0:53:29

huddling yes right when a public miner

0:53:31

raises a hundred million dollars it's

0:53:33

like a hundred million dollars of

0:53:35

capital locked up in bitcoin for the

0:53:36

next decade

0:53:38

when they buy a hundred million worth of

0:53:40

equipment that's locked up right

0:53:44

an etf is another form of of a bitcoin

0:53:47

company and it's a it's a company

0:53:49

creating an application of bitcoin

0:53:52

right the the hardcore bitcoiners they

0:53:54

don't get it they're like not your keys

0:53:56

not your coin this is awful

0:53:58

but what they don't realize is in a

0:54:00

decentralized economy everybody gets to

0:54:03

create their own applications on top of

0:54:05

bitcoin

0:54:06

you know and if el salvador wants to

0:54:09

adopt the bitcoin standard then el

0:54:11

salvador

0:54:12

becomes kind of a bitcoin derivative of

0:54:16

and microstrategy stock is a bitcoin

0:54:19

derivative

0:54:20

but also microstrategy converts

0:54:22

microstrategy senior debt and

0:54:24

microstrategy calls and put options are

0:54:26

all bitcoin derivatives exactly

0:54:29

every single time another you know if

0:54:31

there's 16 etfs

0:54:33

it's the quants dream

0:54:35

right if you're if you're a quantitative

0:54:37

trader you build your program and you go

0:54:40

wow bitcoin is up but bitcoin futures

0:54:43

are mispriced in singapore but

0:54:44

microstrategy is mispriced against

0:54:47

microstrategy call options exactly the

0:54:49

microstrategy first convert is rich and

0:54:51

i can sell that but i can buy the second

0:54:53

convert but the etf is like trading at a

0:54:56

discount versus microstrategy so i'm

0:54:58

going to go ahead and write a program

0:55:00

that sells this and buys that and of

0:55:02

course at that point you have to

0:55:04

allocate capital yeah i found a way to

0:55:07

get a guaranteed eight percent a year

0:55:09

annual yield and then they go off to

0:55:11

somebody on wall street uh george soros

0:55:14

and they say

0:55:15

george i got a guaranteed eight percent

0:55:18

yield no risk you know i'm we're not

0:55:20

even taking a directional bet on bitcoin

0:55:22

but i need you to give me a billion

0:55:24

dollars

0:55:25

so that i can get you 180 million

0:55:27

dollars and i'll take two and 20 and

0:55:31

you'll get the others and you won't even

0:55:33

have to worry about whether bitcoin goes

0:55:34

up and goes down and george goes well

0:55:36

heck if you can do that why don't you

0:55:38

just take two or three billion dollars

0:55:40

of my money

0:55:41

and pretty soon there's a quant trader

0:55:43

creating side markets

0:55:45

and bitcoin derivatives and in order to

0:55:48

do that they have to lock up two billion

0:55:50

dollars of bitcoin yeah dave flabberg

0:55:52

asked me how wall street can't actually

0:55:54

value your company properly or even you

0:55:57

still see analysts on wall street

0:55:58

valuing tesla at a p e of a thousand i

0:56:02

like it's the easiest calculation in the

0:56:04

world to figure out the actual true

0:56:05

value of

0:56:06

real companies real intrinsic value and

0:56:08

nobody seems to do the work and that

0:56:10

surprises me but you're dead right

0:56:11

that's going to change as the asset

0:56:13

class gets more mature

0:56:14

i believe that's exactly what's going to

0:56:16

happen you know one of my friends was

0:56:18

saying we're noting that you know

0:56:19

bitcoin's volatile even right now it's

0:56:21

bouncing around

0:56:22

and and i said well you know sometimes

0:56:24

you think you wish it would just trade

0:56:26

in a tight range plus or minus one

0:56:28

percent

0:56:29

but then if you look at it you realize

0:56:32

that volatility

0:56:34

it that volatility makes it anti-fragile

0:56:37

and the fact that you've got the

0:56:39

volatility bouncing around means that

0:56:41

some really smart 20 70 year old on a

0:56:43

computer goes i can actually lock in an

0:56:46

arbitrage here

0:56:48

and they go and they raise 50 million

0:56:50

from their friends and family and then

0:56:52

they do it and then they raise billions

0:56:54

and and and if it's

0:56:56

you want it to stay a bit volatile

0:56:58

because you end up creating

0:57:01

a hundred different hedge funds with 10

0:57:04

20 30 50 billion dollars in assets and

0:57:06

they're all

0:57:07

trying to close the volatility and

0:57:09

they're feeling like geniuses because

0:57:11

they're they're like haha microstrategy

0:57:13

your stock is mispriced versus haha like

0:57:16

okay fine well that means you're trading

0:57:18

500 million dollars of my stock every

0:57:22

and uh and maybe that means you're going

0:57:24

to put a synthetic short position on it

0:57:27

but that means that instead of the float

0:57:29

being 7 million it'll be 21 million and

0:57:31

that means eventually somebody's got to

0:57:33

buy back to 21 million

0:57:35

shares or do a collateral call and and

0:57:38

ultimately it's good for bitcoin it's

0:57:40

good for

0:57:41

everybody

0:57:43

and ask yourself the question how many

0:57:45

27 year olds in singapore

0:57:47

are setting up hedge funds to arbitrage

0:57:50

pricing imperfections in gold

0:57:53

the answer is none

0:57:55

i mean if you look at them gold silver

0:57:58

you know you're not going to trade them

0:58:00

you're not even in the equity market

0:58:03

you know

0:58:04

there's not a there's not an army of

0:58:06

people that want to raise tens of

0:58:07

billions of dollars to arbitrage

0:58:09

inefficiencies in apple stock

0:58:11

because it's just too monotonic you know

0:58:14

and so

0:58:15

what we've got here is is we've got more

0:58:18

options

0:58:20

and if they're perfectly priced

0:58:22

well i guess you got perfection and if

0:58:24

they're not perfectly priced you've got

0:58:25

optionality

0:58:27

and the optionality makes this the

0:58:30

world's greatest money market and it

0:58:32

makes it an opportunity

0:58:34

and ultimately anything that locks up

0:58:37

more bitcoin

0:58:38

right the etf's an application

0:58:41

microstrategy is an application and the

0:58:43

hedge fund person trading the etf versus

0:58:45

microstrategy is a third application

0:58:49

and it's like they say man you could say

0:58:51

whatever you want about me just spell my

0:58:53

name right exactly

0:58:55

in fact you said something that george a

0:58:56

thought in my brain

0:58:58

one was uh you are a synthetic miner now

0:59:01

i know it's very important for a

0:59:03

corporation to stick to its knitting and

0:59:05

yours is going to be mobile intelligence

0:59:07

and stuff but would

0:59:09

microstrategy ever consider mining per

0:59:12

se or is that way too off if not not

0:59:14

required

0:59:15

you know i i think everybody needs an

0:59:17

earning strategy and they need a savings

0:59:19

strategy an operation strategy and a

0:59:21

balance sheet strategy if you're a

0:59:24

dentist

0:59:25

and you can make 300 000 a year as a

0:59:28

then my best advice for you is

0:59:31

is build the biggest dental practice you

0:59:34

and make make sure you convert

0:59:37

your money into bitcoin as soon as you

0:59:39

it hits the the balance sheet

0:59:43

if you start thinking about if you love

0:59:45

bitcoin

0:59:46

and you start thinking about ways to

0:59:48

actually do better than just being long

0:59:50

bitcoin 100

0:59:52

my next advice for you is

0:59:54

sell equity in your dental practice

0:59:57

you know at 10 times or 20 times revenue

1:00:01

sell 6 million you know sell a million 2

1:00:04

million worth of equity or 6 million

1:00:05

worth of equity and buy bitcoin with

1:00:08

and if you can i would say why don't you

1:00:11

go and sell debt

1:00:13

maybe you can mortgage your dental

1:00:15

practice

1:00:16

if you're generating three hundred

1:00:17

thousand dollars a year in cash flow and

1:00:19

someone wants to loan you 10 million

1:00:20

dollars against it or say yeah 10

1:00:23

million dollars a 2 or 3 interest

1:00:26

then raise 10 million in debt and buy

1:00:28

bitcoin with that and then you'll have

1:00:31

instead of

1:00:32

three instead of three million in

1:00:34

bitcoin over a decade

1:00:36

you'll have 23 million dollars in

1:00:38

bitcoin over a decade and you'll have 20

1:00:40

million in bitcoin in the first month

1:00:44

and you know if you want to do something

1:00:47

stick to the knitting

1:00:49

the doing of something is either grow

1:00:51

your business

1:00:53

or leverage up your bit capitalize your

1:00:55

business and then convert it to bitcoin

1:00:58

that's a good idea i don't think you

1:01:00

know if you tell me you're the world's

1:01:01

greatest dentist i don't think you

1:01:03

should launch a mobile app to compete

1:01:05

with square cash yep

1:01:07

i don't think you should go and well

1:01:08

should i launch my own bitcoin

1:01:10

podcasting show michael

1:01:13

i think what you ought to do is be a

1:01:15

dentist and if you're a podcaster i

1:01:17

think you ought to run the world's

1:01:18

biggest most aggressive podcast and you

1:01:21

ought to you ought to if you can sell

1:01:23

equity in debt have at it mortgage the

1:01:26

business

1:01:27

but um but don't go into

1:01:31

a business that you don't have strategic

1:01:34

assets in

1:01:36

i mean i think if you're exelon

1:01:39

if you're a power company if you own

1:01:41

nuclear reactors

1:01:43

if you can go and borrow money

1:01:46

if you can borrow money at two percent

1:01:48

interest you know gold miners can borrow

1:01:49

money at one and a half to three percent

1:01:51

interest

1:01:52

if you can raise a billion dollars at

1:01:54

two percent interest then yeah you ought

1:01:56

to go and borrow a billion dollars and

1:01:57

buy bitcoin because bitcoin yields a

1:01:59

hundred percent interest yeah excellent

1:02:02

so use your assets right whatever your

1:02:04

assets are use your assets but do not

1:02:08

i don't think you should go into

1:02:10

businesses where you're the newcomer the

1:02:12

interloper you don't have any assets

1:02:14

just because you think it would be cool

1:02:16

to be in that business i totally agree i

1:02:18

got a hair brain scheme for you this is

1:02:20

going to be a curveball imagine you know

1:02:22

all these credit card companies are

1:02:23

paying rewards in bitcoin

1:02:25

would microstrategy ever consider paying

1:02:28

dividends in bitcoin i know it's your

1:02:30

pristine asset and you never sell and

1:02:31

everything else but how about that to

1:02:33

raise shareholder

1:02:35

stock price

1:02:40

yeah i know i don't think you really get

1:02:40

valued for it

1:02:42

i don't think i don't think you should

1:02:43

ever give up any bitcoin i think that if

1:02:45

you go forward

1:02:47

if you go forward a hundred years what's

1:02:49

one percent of all the money in the

1:02:50

world worth

1:02:52

exactly yeah

1:02:53

and that's i don't think you really need

1:02:55

to and by the way i would say i don't

1:02:58

think it's a good idea to pay dividends

1:02:59

at all

1:03:01

it for me a company that pays dividends

1:03:03

is a company that doesn't know what to

1:03:04

do with its money which means they can't

1:03:06

execute or operate let's take gold

1:03:08

miners right gold miners they oh they

1:03:11

mine a ton of gold they over mine the

1:03:13

gold they dump the gold on the market my

1:03:15

first view would be don't sell the gold

1:03:17

but they sell the gold driving the price

1:03:19

of gold down they over mine the gold and

1:03:21

they generate a big profit

1:03:23

50 margin so now they pay income tax

1:03:26

corporate income tax

1:03:27

so first they diluted the value the

1:03:30

supply the gold they drove down the

1:03:31

price the gold then they paid a massive

1:03:35

they also ran up their operating

1:03:37

expenses they also

1:03:40

moved down the marginal productivity

1:03:41

curve they found mines that cost a

1:03:44

thousand dollars per ounce instead of

1:03:45

500 an ounce so they're they're burning

1:03:49

up the environment burning up energy

1:03:51

dumping on the price of gold paying huge

1:03:53

amounts of taxes and then they dividend

1:03:57

then they pay off their debt

1:03:59

they pay down their debt and so when you

1:04:01

pay off a billion dollar note that costs

1:04:03

you three percent interest it's like

1:04:05

making a loan to the bank

1:04:07

in return for three percent interest

1:04:10

you're actually trading and you're

1:04:12

trading what could be an asset yielding

1:04:14

20 or 30 or 100

1:04:16

in order to get paid two percent

1:04:18

so paying off your your debt makes no

1:04:21

sense and then finally paying a dividend

1:04:24

is what they also do when you pay a

1:04:26

dividend not only did you pay the

1:04:27

corporate income tax not only did you

1:04:29

actually loan money to the bank

1:04:32

you also forced your shareholders to pay

1:04:34

a dividend tax on the on the proceeds

1:04:36

you got double taxed

1:04:39

yep okay so

1:04:40

so that's kind of like the behavior if

1:04:43

you didn't believe in your business if

1:04:45

you thought your asset was going to zero

1:04:47

and you wanted to be short gold

1:04:49

i would over mine it and i would pay

1:04:51

double taxes in order to get the cash

1:04:55

and you're really going like triple long

1:04:57

u.s dollar

1:04:59

triple long us dollar i had to i had to

1:05:02

i had to lower the price my selling

1:05:05

price

1:05:06

pay a corporate income tax

1:05:08

pay a dividend tax so i could go triple

1:05:10

long the us dollar

1:05:12

and so i don't think that makes sense i

1:05:15

think the opposite makes sense which is

1:05:18

you take all your cash flows

1:05:21

and you borrow as much as you can as

1:05:25

long as the cost of borrowing is an

1:05:27

order of magnitude less than the use of

1:05:29

proceeds

1:05:31

excellent

1:05:32

there's another thing that kind of

1:05:35

vexes me a little bit confuses my my

1:05:37

head if you look at the 130 in

1:05:40

treasuries around the world that pay

1:05:41

nothing in fact i think it's 30 trillion

1:05:43

pay negative return

1:05:45

and then you start taking taking into

1:05:47

account debasement

1:05:49

do you foresee a great reset and do you

1:05:51

believe that great reset could be

1:05:54

accelerated

1:05:55

by cbdc's going forward

1:05:59

uh not with a bang with a whimper i

1:06:01

don't think there's like a great reset

1:06:03

that implies that like someday everybody

1:06:05

comes to their senses and does something

1:06:08

i think there's way too much inertia in

1:06:09

the system i think a better a better

1:06:12

metaphor would be just like uh

1:06:15

you know a persistent you know

1:06:18

progressive transformation

1:06:20

you know i i think that of the 30

1:06:22

trillion in negative yielding debt 20

1:06:25

is whatever the number is 20 30 trillion

1:06:28

and it depends on how you that's how you

1:06:30

define negative yielding debt i would

1:06:31

define negative yielding debt as the

1:06:33

yield on the debt minus the monetary

1:06:35

inflation rate and if you define it that

1:06:37

way that means all credit

1:06:39

100 trillion dollars is all negative

1:06:41

yielding the only thing would be

1:06:43

yielding positive would be a junk bond

1:06:44

paying over 15 in my opinion like some

1:06:46

of the chinese bonds now that are being

1:06:49

used only

1:06:51

only a junk bond yielding more than 15

1:06:54

in the us dollar if you were an optimist

1:06:57

and believed that the monetary inflation

1:06:59

rate was going to dip below 15

1:07:01

but in fact you can make the argument

1:07:03

that the monetary inflation rate in

1:07:05

china is much more than 15

1:07:07

that's why they need capital controls

1:07:09

yeah right they're printing more money

1:07:10

than we are oh yeah right so europe is

1:07:13

sprinting more money than the fed

1:07:15

and so the monetary inflation rate

1:07:18

the the true inflation rate for an

1:07:20

investor investor inflation rate

1:07:24

it must be 20

1:07:26

in the u.s europe it must be

1:07:29

30 percent or something in china it must

1:07:31

be 40 percent in argentina it must be 50

1:07:35

plus in a lot of the developing world

1:07:38

and so there isn't really any credit

1:07:41

instrument that isn't negative yielding

1:07:43

the only and you can see

1:07:46

even if you look at the s p index james

1:07:49

the s p is up like 24 25 in a year

1:07:54

but if i i've been using that as a

1:07:56

surrogate for monetary inflation

1:07:59

but the truth is

1:08:01

that's probably under

1:08:03

estimating it i think the monetary

1:08:05

inflation rate is higher than the s p

1:08:07

yield

1:08:09

and the reason i think that is because

1:08:11

if you if the s if all 500 ceos in the s

1:08:15

p index

1:08:17

who are not able to issue any equity

1:08:19

or issue any debt in the last 12 months

1:08:23

then the price of the s p and the

1:08:25

espionage didn't change then the price

1:08:26

of the s p index might be a good

1:08:28

surrogate for the investor inflation

1:08:31

but we know that the amount of debt

1:08:34

and the amount of equity that they have

1:08:36

issued is substantial which means that

1:08:39

they have diluted

1:08:41

that shareholder the value of a share in

1:08:44

the last 12 months which means that the

1:08:46

24 percent return has is deluded and the

1:08:50

true inflation rate is maybe 28 29

1:08:55

in that range it's it's it's in the

1:08:57

higher 20s i'm guessing

1:09:01

coming back to this issue what happens

1:09:02

with credit

1:09:03

it's all negative yielding but it's a

1:09:05

lot of it's locked up in institutions

1:09:08

and relationships that get reviewed once

1:09:10

every five years and once every three

1:09:12

years and once every year

1:09:15

and you know there's some

1:09:16

if i'm

1:09:17

75 years old and i have billions of

1:09:20

dollars with a money manager

1:09:23

might not even make a decision

1:09:25

for the next 15 years i might leave it

1:09:27

that way from 75 to 90

1:09:31

and i might i might creep at it very

1:09:34

slow so

1:09:35

there and if i'm

1:09:37

likewise if i'm a government

1:09:40

a government it might be a change in

1:09:42

administration before they would

1:09:43

consider our government is still holding

1:09:45

gold right

1:09:47

look at um i guess an interesting

1:09:49

surrogate or thing to look at would be

1:09:51

the rate at which sovereign wealth funds

1:09:53

or the rate at which central banks took

1:09:55

on etfs or or

1:09:58

s p 500 index funds or big tech into

1:10:01

their balance sheets

1:10:03

norway did it switzerland did it i guess

1:10:07

the emiratis right in the middle east

1:10:10

they did it

1:10:11

right if you would ask them do you guys

1:10:13

want a whole goal they would you know

1:10:14

kind of

1:10:15

laugh at you

1:10:17

but the u.s hasn't put s p index on

1:10:19

their balance sheet and that's been the

1:10:21

store of value for the last

1:10:23

20 years right 30 years

1:10:25

yep certainly the last 10 years

1:10:28

i get there was a period right where

1:10:30

maybe sovereign debt was a store of

1:10:32

value i think before the great financial

1:10:34

crisis up until 2008

1:10:37

i it used to be remember when italian

1:10:38

bonds yielded six percent interest

1:10:41

i mean it used to be that you could get

1:10:42

governmental bonds that yielded four

1:10:45

five six seven eight nine percent

1:10:46

interest and you could tell yourself

1:10:49

the inflation is seven percent and

1:10:51

they're yielding seven percent and

1:10:53

there's a store of value there

1:10:55

but after 2009

1:10:58

all those sovereign yields in europe

1:11:00

they all got pegged to zero

1:11:02

or you know one and it's pretty obvious

1:11:04

that the money supply is expanding at

1:11:06

seven the sovereign debts yielding one

1:11:08

there's no store value anymore and every

1:11:11

intelligent investor rotated onto

1:11:13

the s p index or the nasdaq

1:11:16

but you know if you look at that

1:11:19

the only way you can theoretically hold

1:11:20

value in an environment where the money

1:11:23

supply is expanding at ten percent is to

1:11:25

grow your cash flows 20

1:11:29

all of the gains in the s p index or

1:11:31

nasdaq all come down to fang stocks

1:11:34

apple amazon facebook google microsoft

1:11:37

the top nine of the top 500 generated 80

1:11:39

of the return over the last five years

1:11:42

that's ridiculous there is no so another

1:11:44

way to say it is before bitcoin the

1:11:47

store of value is a big tech monopoly

1:11:51

[Music]

1:11:52

okay a big tech monopoly a dominant

1:11:55

digital network

1:11:57

dematerializing something

1:11:59

with a monopoly that's the only store of

1:12:01

value left credit sovereign debt is not

1:12:04

a store of value

1:12:05

value stocks are not a store of value

1:12:07

utility companies with dividend yields

1:12:10

they're not stores of value because they

1:12:11

can't grow their cash flows 20 a year

1:12:15

now growing your cash flow 20 a year

1:12:18

while the fed prints 7 more money works

1:12:20

for amazon for a decade but if the fed

1:12:23

prints 20 more money

1:12:25

you have to grow your cash flows 30 35 a

1:12:28

what kind of company can grow its cash

1:12:30

flows 30 a year for the next five years

1:12:33

other than two or three names that we

1:12:35

know very well

1:12:36

okay well that's it excellent excellent

1:12:38

point i got two final questions for you

1:12:40

and i know your time is so precious and

1:12:42

i'm so grateful that you spent so much

1:12:43

time with me but first of all a big

1:12:46

piece of the channel i have here is to

1:12:48

give back to help

1:12:50

people find financial freedom so they

1:12:52

can make the world a better place help

1:12:53

support animals and children's hospital

1:12:55

and stuff like that but i know you have

1:12:57

the sailor academy but what do you plan

1:13:00

to give back to society as you become

1:13:01

one of the wealthiest people on the

1:13:03

planet because i've done the numbers and

1:13:04

i think you will be

1:13:06

it's it's a no-brainer 10 years from now

1:13:07

you'll be like uh well you know what

1:13:10

you're going to be

1:13:11

um but

1:13:13

what what is your greater

1:13:15

mission in life well that means 20 years

1:13:17

from now

1:13:19

the plan for the sailor

1:13:20

academy is converted into a full-fledged

1:13:23

degree granting university

1:13:25

and we're on the path to do that and

1:13:27

we'll continue to expand the range of

1:13:30

certifications and degrees and and

1:13:34

every jurisdiction

1:13:36

progressively

1:13:37

and that's my sole error right my

1:13:39

primary error so when i die

1:13:42

whatever i've got we'll go to finance

1:13:44

that mission and the mission is free

1:13:46

education for everybody forever

1:13:48

i think that i think there will probably

1:13:50

be a lot of

1:13:51

need for education

1:13:53

forever for everybody and

1:13:55

you know as you know you can polish

1:13:57

those courses and you can you can polish

1:14:00

the certificates and you can improve the

1:14:02

quality and you can

1:14:04

translate and

1:14:05

in the ideal world you'll be able to go

1:14:07

k through phd in every subject for free

1:14:12

anywhere

1:14:14

and maybe even spin off what i call the

1:14:16

importance of kind of nano degrees in

1:14:18

very specialist areas like create a

1:14:20

python programmer in 12 weeks that can

1:14:23

go earn a living for his family in

1:14:24

bangladesh or something like that i

1:14:26

think there's a huge call for that type

1:14:28

of education too

1:14:30

yeah our most popular courses are one of

1:14:32

them is python

1:14:33

you know where uh english is a second

1:14:36

language

1:14:37

computer networking

1:14:38

c plus plus i mean a lot of things you

1:14:40

can learn online and then we've got some

1:14:43

short courses like 12-hour courses

1:14:45

like bitcoin for everybody

1:14:47

and then we've got some you know pretty

1:14:50

deep physics electromagnetics

1:14:52

full semester courses and

1:14:54

and lots of different areas we touch but

1:14:57

i mean there's that's a bottomless well

1:14:59

of opportunity exactly and people are

1:15:01

always gonna

1:15:03

they're always gonna need uh more

1:15:04

education so and as the world becomes

1:15:08

kind of

1:15:09

more digital and people start moving

1:15:11

with their feet and

1:15:13

labor will become much more mobile it

1:15:15

already is

1:15:16

uh so i think that type of education

1:15:18

will give everybody on earth a chance to

1:15:19

get ahead which is very

1:15:23

i admirable

1:15:23

one final fun question for you

1:15:29

this might be a hard one so what

1:15:29

question would you want to be asked that

1:15:31

you haven't been asked before

1:15:39

um what's

1:15:39

what's the most important thing

1:15:42

to teach your children

1:15:44

[Music]

1:15:47

so if i if i kick that back to you

1:15:49

what's the most important thing to teach

1:15:50

your children i'll tell my thoughts

1:15:52

about education one

1:15:55

i i studied a lot of math

1:15:59

but the you know most math calculus

1:16:02

calculus of variations linear algebra

1:16:04

all of the advanced mathematics

1:16:07

for the most part they've all been

1:16:08

automated the one type of math that

1:16:11

everybody on earth needs every day maybe

1:16:14

every

1:16:15

hour of the day

1:16:16

is a practical applied statistics

1:16:20

right we have we have infinite

1:16:22

information

1:16:24

and i think that most people they're not

1:16:26

able to parse information that is

1:16:28

statistically significant

1:16:30

so as to construct an appropriate model

1:16:34

and so they get mired

1:16:36

in inappropriate models right it's like

1:16:39

they just can't think flexibly enough so

1:16:41

i throw enough numbers at you and you

1:16:43

think that they matter but they don't

1:16:44

matter

1:16:45

you know

1:16:46

you're playing the piano in the back of

1:16:48

a of an airplane and i kick you out of

1:16:50

the airplane and there's someone that

1:16:52

wants to talk about the you know the

1:16:55

music theory and somebody else wants to

1:16:57

talk about how notes

1:16:59

move through the air and vibration and

1:17:02

sound and somebody else wants to talk

1:17:04

about the aerodynamics of how you're

1:17:06

going to whip through the air as you

1:17:07

fall but the only you know model that

1:17:10

matters right like the

1:17:13

newton's law and 9.8 meters a second and

1:17:16

you're going to smack into the earth is

1:17:17

going to kill you

1:17:19

and all the other things don't matter

1:17:21

all the other models are irrelevant

1:17:23

there's one thing that's relevant

1:17:25

and i think that all the time i just see

1:17:27

people fixating

1:17:29

i give you all the data on the earth the

1:17:32

history of all of humanity and i ask you

1:17:34

to pick the best stock or the best

1:17:36

whatever

1:17:37

or the best strategy

1:17:39

but there's an asteroid gonna hit the

1:17:40

earth gonna kill everybody and the thing

1:17:42

that matters is the asteroid okay the

1:17:45

asteroid's gonna hit the earth right

1:17:46

what matters well how big is it

1:17:49

and when will it hit the earth

1:17:50

and if it's gonna hit the earth in 10

1:17:52

billion years and if it's the size of a

1:17:54

nickel

1:17:55

it doesn't matter and if it's going to

1:17:57

hit the earth in eight minutes

1:17:59

and it's the size of the moon

1:18:01

nothing else matters exactly and i think

1:18:04

that we have a lot of people that

1:18:05

struggle all the time in the world

1:18:09

whether it's buying something or selling

1:18:10

something or communicating something or

1:18:12

interpreting something or or making a

1:18:14

rational investment decision

1:18:17

and they think that applying extreme

1:18:20

amounts of mathematics to extremely

1:18:23

large data sets

1:18:25

somehow give them comfort and certainty

1:18:27

about what to do

1:18:29

but i i just all the time i see people

1:18:32

that they come to conclusions i think

1:18:33

they don't have the common sense to come

1:18:35

in from the cold

1:18:36

because they're extrapolating from

1:18:39

mountains of data with the wrong model

1:18:42

that has been rendered irrelevant

1:18:45

by one change in circumstance

1:18:47

exactly i love that in fact i'm not sure

1:18:49

if you know but the slogan for this

1:18:51

channel is math money and freedom first

1:18:53

of all to use math

1:18:55

to generate money to buy freedom and do

1:18:57

better so that's the whole vision so i'm

1:18:59

so happy you said that at the end but

1:19:01

you're dead right some people focus on

1:19:03

the wrong things you see people who

1:19:05

you know make two hundred thousand

1:19:07

dollars a year and they're encumbered in

1:19:09

three hundred thousand dollars of

1:19:10

student debt and they're leasing a car

1:19:13

that they can't afford for a thousand

1:19:14

bucks a month and they live in a house

1:19:16

that's just beyond their means and

1:19:19

you know people just don't have the

1:19:20

discipline to focus on the right things

1:19:22

sometimes so

1:19:24

there's just so much potential out there

1:19:25

through education and math i'm glad you

1:19:28

said that

1:19:30

so well that's i think the end of the

1:19:32

show um i do have a model i'm working on

1:19:35

that i know will be very interesting to

1:19:36

you so maybe we can touch base

1:19:38

another time

1:19:40

if you ever have time but it'll be about

1:19:43

money supply and debasement and

1:19:46

purchasing power and the price of

1:19:48

bitcoin over time and other assets and

1:19:51

it's just for people to really wrap

1:19:52

their heads around where things are

1:19:53

going to be because when i see people

1:19:55

you know buying an annuity

1:19:57

with half a million dollars it took them

1:19:59

40 years to earn half a million dollars

1:20:01

they buy annuity that pays three percent

1:20:03

that they hope that will keep them alive

1:20:05

for the next 25 years it's heartbreaking

1:20:08

this is the type of math that we need to

1:20:10

get out there to people not to go down

1:20:12

these wrong paths so

1:20:14

so happy to hear it sounds exciting i'd

1:20:16

love to see it i'll look forward to that

1:20:18

next discussion and i'm so honored to

1:20:20

talk to you in person been a huge fan

1:20:22

for a long time as you know and have a

1:20:24

great balance of the week and thank you

1:20:26

so much michael saylor thank you james

1:20:29

thanks for having me my pleasure bye

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