SaylorCorpus

10 Rules for Life with Michael Saylor

Peter McCormack · 2023-05-17 · 2h 02m · View on YouTube →

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okay Michael this is uh my son

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Connor great to meet you Connor cheers

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you too uh we've told him a lot about

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you I'm going to tell you a little bit

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about him so he quit uni how long ago

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about a month ago and I'm conscious when

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we make this podcast and you do

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interviews you do a lot we're most of

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the time if not all the time talking to

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our peers or people of a similar age but

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there's a whole generation like Connor

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who some of them have gone to UNI and

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realized it's not them some of them are

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learning things right now even think of

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my daughter which are going to be uh

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unrequired with AI in the future and so

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I think this's this whole different

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crowd that we can talk to but I just

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think for someone like Connor you look

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we know you've been successful you've

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had a hugely successful career it'd be

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good to hear some of the most important

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lessons you've learned that maybe you

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could share with Connor and con I might

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have some questions back well cool well

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first of all you're lucky you get to

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start life fresh

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with uh none of the baggage of the rest

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of us and and uh the opportunities in

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the 21st century are extraordinary um I

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was uh I was at a a social Gathering uh

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a number of years ago and a a

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multi-billionaire walked up to me and

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and he said I've got uh I've got twins a

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boy and a girl and on their 21st

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birthday I want to give them a book of

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advice that I gathered from all of my

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friends so if you could I want you to

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write down your advice to my 21 year

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olds on on the occasion of their

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maturity and uh I said really said yeah

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yeah and I'm I'm gonna put it together

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with you know everybody else I know and

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so I said okay I guess I can do that and

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I thought that was one of those things

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where he was going to wait a few months

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and I would send it VI email but he

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takes out a little red book he puts it

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in my hand with a pen he says okay write

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them down now I could a big party is

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cocktail party people are going you know

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around and it's a

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spectacular Villa looking over the

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Mediterranean and I didn't really think

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I would be asked this question you know

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give me advice for two you know young

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adults but I thought okay thank thank

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thank thank thank so I sit down and I

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wrote down 10

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things and I handed it back to him so

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I'm gonna start by giving you those 10

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suggestions and then I'm going to give

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you uh some practical suggestions that I

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would give to anybody

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um that go beyond the theory okay so the

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theory uh

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one Focus your energy you think you can

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do everything you can't and everybody

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overestimates all the things they can do

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the things I regret in my life for all

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the good ideas I pursued to the

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detriment of my great idea you know you

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you're going to have 27 good ideas and

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they're going to be and and Peter

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interviews people with good ideas all

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the time and then you ask the question

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well do we have the energy to make it

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work so you got to focus Conor every

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time I do an interview with Michael it

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ends with him telling me this a give as

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well focus and that's you go to my

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Twitter profile I got laser eyes the

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message of laser eyes is focus I'm I'm

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not against a thousand things I am not

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in favor of a hundred things I am simply

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trying to advocate for one thing and the

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the one thing is Bitcoin so Focus your

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energy uh second guard your time

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everybody's going to actually want to

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take your time there's going to be a

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million things you can do with your time

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and and you know when I was growing up

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we had like three channels and we had

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like every night programming that was

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original from 8 to 11: and you know

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there was no porn like there was one

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Playboy magazine I saw in the woods once

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in my entire childhood why is it always

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in the woods do you remember that it's

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always in the woods it it was sitting in

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some like wed car you know and it was

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you know it was legendary all the

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teenage boys would talk about the one

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Playboy magazine you know uh and so

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today you've got twitch and you've got

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YouTube and you've got Infinite porn

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you've got infinite games and you've got

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infinite you've got infinite everything

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and if you look at the scourge of

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modernity it's every possible thing

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people ever thought they might want we

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figured out how to manufacture it in

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bulk pharmaceutical grade and drive the

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variable cost to zero so uh infinite

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music used to be music cost money

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infinite books used to be books you know

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I went to the library I checked out

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books I had to take them back there was

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a limit on the books so no limits today

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and you really have to have to ask

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yourself the question how are you going

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to spend your time because you could

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literally spend the next 30 years of

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your life watching chess videos on

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YouTube not playing chess just watching

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the videos of other people playing chess

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right there's infinite hundreds of

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thousands of hours of Chess videos to be

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watched so the third the third piece of

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advice is train your

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mind train it right uh you know train

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what math learn math learn to speak

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learn a language uh learn logic

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especially logic and language and and

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basic thinking skills uh how you do that

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right it doesn't necessar mean need to

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go to university right uh I launched the

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Sailor Academy and we've given education

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to one and a half million students we

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don't charge them a nickel it's it's

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absolutely free in my opinion you can

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probably train your mind better

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faster not in a school today right but

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because the options I had when I was

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going through school like when I was in

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high school I could

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learn Spanish or French or Latin but

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that's all I could learn and I could

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learn two years of it and I could learn

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at the same rate as everybody else and I

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could learn one semester of calculus or

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and half a semester of calcul that's all

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I can learn so train your mind use

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technology to do it uh the fourth train

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your body be healthy uh you don't have

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to do things that are inflammatory and

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dangerous I mean I'm not telling you to

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go be a a a boxer or or take excessive

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risk but I think any kind of healthy

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training the pattern you get into your

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entire life is important it won't be

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that important in the first like right

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now in your 20s or your 30s you get away

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with really really bad behavior there

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will be a greater price to pay in your

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40s it will get exponentially worse in

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your 50s if you engage in really bad

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behavior and you don't Train Your Body

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by the time you get to your 60 sometimes

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the you know the Journey's over and when

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you get to your 70s You' like to be able

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to walk around and uh being able to walk

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around or into your 80s or the or the

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like is a function of your of the way

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you uh treat your health so you know if

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you're body goes your mind will go later

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and life is just not that

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fun uh fifth think for yourself

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everybody's going to tell you what to

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think everybody you know every media

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organization is in the business of

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telling you what to think uh and

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generally they all have an

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agenda uh when at some point in your

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life you'll read a story and you'll ask

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the question what was the agenda of the

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journalist that wrote the story and what

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was the agenda of the media organization

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that published the journalist and what

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was the agenda in the nation where the

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journalist lives and if you if you start

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to think about all those things then

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you'll realize that oftentimes in life

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if you especially if you run a business

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like I want to do something I want maybe

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I want to buy a product I never bought

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the product before and Peter sells a

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version of the product and Danny sells

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version of the product and you sell a

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version of the product and you all three

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of you are experts I know nothing

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what I what I do is I try to buy from

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each of you and then I triangulate

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between each of you and you can tell me

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lies you can tell me lies you can tell

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me lies I wouldn't know the difference

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but at some point you will rat out him

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you will rat out he will rout out you

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you will rout out him I will create a

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mosaic of it and I will figure out what

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the truth is by inferring it from a

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bunch of uh distorted information so

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assume everything's distorted and it's

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your job to

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synthesize and get to your version of

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the truth um six uh curate your

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friends you know be careful The Company

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You Keep right some people will make you

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better and and they'll lift you up and

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other people will drag you down and

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plenty of people's lives are ruined by a

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bad friendship and their teens right

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your friend wants I'm not going to go

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into details you figure it out choose

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your friends carefully choose their

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values and and you have infinite Choice

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there there's eight billion people on

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the planet right you can find three

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friends that that that will work well

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with you and so figure out figure out

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the right ones and run from the wrong

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ones you know cherish the right ones

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seventh curate your

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environment like look where we are right

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now right there's good light in this

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room didn't have to be good light in

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this room Peter could have picked one

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that has awful light right pick the

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environment that's happy that's healthy

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chating the environment means choose

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where you will live what city what

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neighborhood how you will live you know

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do you want to live in a house with

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green grass do you want to live in an

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apartment think hard about that you have

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a you have more Choice than you think

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you have it will impact your mental

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health it'll impact your your your

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physical health for example you study

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statistics you find that the likelihood

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of you getting mugged or murdered is

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highly correlated to your pedestrian

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pattern so if you actually walk down 10

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blocks in a bad neighborhood and you

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walk back and forth every day to work in

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the wrong place you're like a thousand

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times more likely to get killed mugged

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murder whatever right so you made that

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choice you might not realize you made

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that choice but where you are and um and

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how you live makes a difference to your

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mental and your physical health um eight

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uh keep your promises whatever they are

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the one thing people remember about you

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for the for the rest of your life if you

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promis them something 27 years later

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they will still remember if you lied to

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them or if you promised them something

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and you didn't do it and the problem

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with that is that that credibility over

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time compounds and and if you don't have

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credibility people aren't going to want

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to help you they're not going to help

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you in fact they're going to actually

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celebrate your failure so don't make

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promises you can't keep but bend Heaven

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and Earth to keep the promises you do

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make and that you know obviously in

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business it's the difference between

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businesses succeeding and failing and

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like when you get in the public markets

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my stock trades every day from 9:30 to

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4: if people felt like I was going to do

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something different than what I told

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them hundreds of millions or billions of

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dollars of capital would disappear in a

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heartbeat

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when people feel when you lose

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credibility so you're ail to accomplish

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something in life is based on your

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credibility so so don't make promises

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you can't keep and keep your promises uh

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nine uh stay cheerful be constructive

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right the world's full of 10,000 things

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that are ugly and

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awful but uh and and you can you you can

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talk about them at infinitum but if you

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sit with someone you know for three

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hours and you talk about how awful the

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world is or or how much you don't like

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it at some point if you watch them I do

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this with my employees okay I've this

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I've lived this life okay so I've s with

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employees and I'm in a bad mood I'm like

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this isn't working this isn't working

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this is not working this is not right we

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could have done this better we could

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have done this better we could could

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have done this better and this is what

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happens to the person on the other side

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of the table start here they're like hey

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what are we going to do today they're

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and then pretty soon they're like beat

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exhausted you know and then you end with

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that parade of horribles you're like so

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we can do this and they're but you've

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already beat them to death right and so

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so you need to they need to

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enjoy and and look forward to their

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engagement with you if you uh if you

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want to accomplish something find a way

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to do it in a cheerful constructive way

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um cheer you know things that go viral

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on Twitter more often they're like

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constructive cheerful things you know if

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you're entertaining or you find if I

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post a

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criticism then some people see it but it

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doesn't go that far when I post a

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solution like here's here's a free thing

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here's a free course here is a free

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resource you can have this for free this

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is this is a tool you can use if you

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know like for example the other day I

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post I saw a really nice video on what

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is bitcoin and it had been posted by uh

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a Bitcoin Advocate and it had like 800

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views because she didn't have that many

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followers I thought but this is kind of

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sad this is sitting and languishing was

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like three and a half minutes of why

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Bitcoin is good so I retweeted it and uh

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you know I said no there will only be 21

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million Bitcoin or never be more than 21

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million Bitcoin or something that went

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to like 200,000 250,000 views but what

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happened was all the other people on

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Twitter said hey this is a really good

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orange pilling video and they started

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retweeting it and you can see on Twitter

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now how people bookmark things you can

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count the bookmarks and it had the

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number one set of book like thousands of

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bookmarks like people were bookmarking

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like you could see in their mind they're

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like I should save this because I might

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need to send this to my father my mother

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my friend it's like I post something

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kind of snarky or or or or critical or

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pessimistic no one's bookmarking that

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you know and so cheerful and

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constructive works better PE also you

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want people to look forward to seeing

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you whether it's in a working

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environment like I enjoy working with

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you or if they're a customer or if

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they're A supplier or if they're just a

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friend and I mean number 10 uh upgrade

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the world there's a lot of ways to do it

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figure out how you're going to upgrade

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the world have you know have a a way so

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that that's my theoretical advice uh for

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someone entering their adulthood um

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practical

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advice um stuff that uh I think is

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useful uh I wish I'd studied even more

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history like especially serving a lot of

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history by the way history his story

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it's just a story right Alexander the

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Great took Herodotus with him on his

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campaigns that's why Alexander is the

0:15:30

great because he hired a historian to

0:15:32

write the book about him okay there's

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10,000 Stories okay and if you read all

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the stories there's the story from the

0:15:40

point of view of of a thousand different

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Indian tribes from the point of view of

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the Mayans the Aztecs the Europeans the

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French the Spaniard the Americans

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everybody's got the story the Romans the

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GS the Russians the Japanese Chinese

0:15:52

they've all got the story from their

0:15:53

point of view and they're the hero and

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the other the other tribe is the villain

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the Barbarian the whatever so if you if

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you read history enough of it then

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you'll be empathetic and you'll be

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better able to interpret what's going on

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now for for example like all these

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things taxes you know you know there

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were ta there were monopolies on who

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could bake in New York City in the

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1600s there was there was Monopoly on

0:16:23

who could make a hat you had to have a

0:16:25

seven-year apprenticeship before you

0:16:27

could make a hat they're already you

0:16:29

know who wanted them the Hat makers in

0:16:31

London wanted them there are monopolies

0:16:33

on who could trade with what P we had

0:16:36

tobacco notes as money and then there

0:16:38

was a massive fight because someone

0:16:40

wanted to cap the price of the tobacco

0:16:43

money and the ministers getting paid in

0:16:45

tobacco had a fit and appeal to the

0:16:47

crown when you read history all these

0:16:50

things then you realize everything

0:16:52

you're seeing today it's not new and

0:16:54

when someone says we had we have to do

0:16:56

this because this is unique it's not

0:16:59

unique right you won't be so easily

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manipulated so history is good uh in

0:17:04

math a lot of things I studied in math

0:17:06

aren't useful calculus calculus of

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variations differential equations uh

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complex things like that the only way in

0:17:15

which those are useful it's useful it's

0:17:17

useful that I studied Vector math or

0:17:19

linear math because I could think about

0:17:22

vectors and I could think n

0:17:24

dimensionally so the idea of

0:17:27

n-dimensional math the idea of nonlinear

0:17:30

math some of these things are useful to

0:17:32

study but the actual technique

0:17:34

unnecessary because the computer and now

0:17:37

the AI I'll do it for you in a split

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second but I tell you the kind of math

0:17:41

that I use every day every hour of the

0:17:44

day and if you don't have this you will

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never be successful in business and you

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probably won't be successful in politics

0:17:50

or life and that is applied

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statistics and by applied statistics I

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mean can you just explain that quick

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I mean understanding how significant it

0:18:03

is the thing someone's telling you for

0:18:06

example the problem in this country is

0:18:09

people slipping and falling in bathtubs

0:18:12

and therefore we need a tax to rebuild

0:18:14

everybody's bathtub being able to figure

0:18:17

out how many people actually slip and

0:18:18

fall in bathtubs or and comparing it to

0:18:21

shark attacks and comparing it to death

0:18:24

by you know drinking too much alcohol or

0:18:26

a heart attack or or the likelihood of

0:18:29

you dying in a car crash or crossing the

0:18:31

street or the example I gave you which

0:18:33

is statistically you're a lot more

0:18:35

likely get mugged if you walk by you can

0:18:37

correlate it to the number of minutes

0:18:39

you spend on the street in a bad

0:18:41

neighborhood right so if you understand

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if once you think about statistics

0:18:47

statistics is essential to do business

0:18:49

because you have to pick for example

0:18:52

what's the statistical likelihood that

0:18:54

block five Celsius and FTX are going to

0:18:56

fail each year like that's counterparty

0:18:59

risk if the if you thought they were

0:19:01

going to fail once in a hundred years

0:19:03

that's a 1% risk a year and you have to

0:19:05

put a 1% premium on top it turned out

0:19:08

they were basically likely to fail

0:19:10

within 36 months so the risk premium was

0:19:13

36% and if they were paying you an

0:19:15

interest rate less than 40% on your

0:19:19

money you statistically losing all your

0:19:22

money so understanding statistics and

0:19:25

and being able to apply it to business

0:19:27

to life uh to uh to your social life

0:19:33

that's kind of useful um it's useful in

0:19:35

in and purchasing it's useful in

0:19:38

governance if you're ever a politician

0:19:41

um what's the if I actually shut down

0:19:45

the entire economy of the state because

0:19:48

I think there's a hurricane that's going

0:19:50

to hit

0:19:51

Miami okay what's the statistical

0:19:53

statistical likely it hits Miami what's

0:19:55

the what's the amount of damage it does

0:19:57

when it hits Miami what happens if it

0:19:59

doesn't hit Miami what's the cost of the

0:20:01

shutdown the state okay that's something

0:20:04

you kind of have to make a decision on

0:20:06

when you decide where you're going to

0:20:07

live and if you're ever if you're ever

0:20:09

lucky enough to be a a leader you need

0:20:11

to know that and uh

0:20:14

generally you know when you do study

0:20:16

statistics you start to learn that most

0:20:19

human interventions are iatrogenic

0:20:21

iatrogenic being a long complicated word

0:20:24

for does more harm than good when the

0:20:27

Cure is worse than the disease most most

0:20:31

things are iatrogenic so if the

0:20:33

odds if the odds of you actually having

0:20:37

a disease or one in a

0:20:39

million and the medicine is 99%

0:20:44

effective that means that 1% of a

0:20:47

million people that take the

0:20:50

medicine right and and this particular

0:20:53

case it's a 1% uh 100,000 10,000 so you

0:20:59

got 10,000 people that take the

0:21:01

medicine one of them is going to die of

0:21:05

disease so that means that in that case

0:21:10

99.99% of the people that take the

0:21:13

medicine are going to be sick from

0:21:16

taking the medicine and they're not

0:21:18

going to be helped right but to figure

0:21:22

that out right you have to understand

0:21:23

you have to ask some basic statistical

0:21:25

questions right How likely is is it you

0:21:29

know that that that thing that you fear

0:21:31

is going to kill me or hurt me versus

0:21:33

how much damage will your prescribed

0:21:35

cure do to me and we all had a lot of

0:21:40

examples of that lately uh so statistics

0:21:43

I think is really valuable and I I guess

0:21:47

um my I'll I'll end with just uh

0:21:50

practical suggestions on on how to be

0:21:54

successful

0:21:56

um in every ation there's a tool um a

0:22:01

platform a new thing a new technology

0:22:04

and when that technology hits if you

0:22:07

take advantage of it in the first five

0:22:09

years you'll probably be

0:22:12

immortalized for example lead Zeppelin

0:22:15

and The Beetles you know if you look at

0:22:17

all classic rock from 1969 to 1975 and

0:22:21

and you made a list of all the truly

0:22:23

insanely great stuff done and then you

0:22:26

see an exponential decay in unique rock

0:22:30

and roll music from that point forward

0:22:32

it gets exponentially harder um the

0:22:36

piano the work by chopan Beethoven

0:22:39

Mozart extraordinary gets exponentially

0:22:41

harder to make a unique piano

0:22:45

contribution if you look at the

0:22:47

Mainframe then the mini computer then

0:22:50

the PC then the

0:22:52

internet you kind of wna when you're

0:22:55

coming of age you ask the question

0:22:57

what's the new thing what is the

0:23:00

extraordinary thing now if if uh

0:23:04

Michelangelo lived today he wouldn't do

0:23:08

what he did then just like if Beethoven

0:23:10

lived today you probably be seeing some

0:23:14

Exquisite Dynamic meters you know

0:23:18

construct created so there is human

0:23:22

genius in every generation and you have

0:23:25

some talent but the issue is what do you

0:23:27

harness is it Instagram that's the old

0:23:30

thing was it Snapchat was it you know

0:23:33

Tick Tock or in in the current time

0:23:36

period this explosion of of AI you know

0:23:40

AI mid journey and and uh chat Bots and

0:23:44

like I went to school at MIT and the

0:23:48

previous generation the generation of

0:23:49

Engineers that put the the man on the

0:23:51

moon they designed spaceships with slide

0:23:55

rules I use an hp1 15c calculator a

0:23:59

decade later they had spreadsheets on

0:24:02

laptops and I used think man I could

0:24:04

have been 100x as effective if I had a

0:24:07

spreadsheet on a laptop you know and

0:24:09

then they had the internet you know and

0:24:12

and today you know you could say give me

0:24:14

a Shakespearean Sonet you know in the

0:24:16

style of whatever about roses and

0:24:19

Bitcoin and you know it's like well

0:24:23

maybe four years of English literature

0:24:25

studies down the drain because yeah it

0:24:28

turns out in some ways the person that

0:24:31

has no Talent

0:24:33

like yesterday um was Mother's

0:24:37

Day I wanted to post a picture for

0:24:39

Mother's Day I went and I you know first

0:24:41

I went to Google I Googled Bitcoin

0:24:44

Mother's Day memes nothing then I went

0:24:47

to Twitter all my memesters like my

0:24:50

favorite accounts that post memes I'm

0:24:52

like okay well I there's a there's a

0:24:55

mother there's another one I don't know

0:24:56

if that'll play very well some people

0:24:58

might not identify with you know that

0:25:00

image so then I went to Mid journey and

0:25:03

I typed Bitcoin

0:25:05

bouquet Bitcoin bouquet something like

0:25:08

that bam I got 12 different pictures

0:25:10

click click click click click ah there's

0:25:12

one with the Bitcoin in the middle and

0:25:14

orange and I like the orange and it's

0:25:16

black background copy

0:25:19

paste okay I just made it myself and you

0:25:24

know I I would say as an artist I have

0:25:28

no no Talent at all and when I was going

0:25:31

through

0:25:31

school um I would not have been

0:25:34

interested in art history or art because

0:25:38

if you take an art class but you can't

0:25:40

paint and you can't draw right this

0:25:43

experience comes to a grinding halt in a

0:25:46

hurry but if I could roll the clock back

0:25:49

and do it again I would take a really

0:25:52

detailed art class because now what I

0:25:54

realize is I can produce anything in any

0:25:57

style and any texture you know you know

0:26:00

in the style of of any of 10,000

0:26:04

artists right and then you start

0:26:07

discovering light there's like infinite

0:26:10

light there's infinite you know I I

0:26:12

tripped over anodized titanium and I was

0:26:14

typing give me a Bitcoin and anodize

0:26:17

titanium and it's posted on Twitter it

0:26:19

ran really well by the way I didn't even

0:26:21

know there was a style of anodized

0:26:23

titanium but once you once you have the

0:26:26

tool in your hand you realize that that

0:26:30

there's an entire language of

0:26:33

imagery that professional photographers

0:26:36

and professional artist they know uh and

0:26:39

it was off limits to the Layman uh until

0:26:43

mid Journey or or other AI generative

0:26:47

tools but today you could generate your

0:26:49

own music you might generate your own

0:26:51

video you might generate your own art

0:26:53

you might you know you might generate

0:26:55

your own songs your own raps your own

0:26:58

whatever and the ROI is much higher like

0:27:03

uh I I had two paintings on my yacht I

0:27:06

don't like the paintings you know 20

0:27:09

years ago you have to hire an artist to

0:27:10

repaint them this time around I said you

0:27:13

know give me two Polynesian girls in the

0:27:15

style of kadinsky and someone said well

0:27:17

why don't you try this one plugged in

0:27:18

another one I spun up some images I said

0:27:21

I shipped them off to uh you know to a a

0:27:25

painting you know like a a 3D printer

0:27:29

that does paintings on canvas they come

0:27:32

back I'm G to put them on my boat I do

0:27:35

my own art I can I can curate my own

0:27:38

life it's a so it's new platforms new

0:27:42

things and

0:27:45

sometimes you know uh the old way was

0:27:49

you're in a big organization surrounded

0:27:51

by hundreds or thousands of people and

0:27:53

there's a big Network and you know you

0:27:55

can say one tenth is much or one 100th

0:27:58

as much and you're a 100 times slower

0:28:01

and the new way is maybe

0:28:03

it's Peter and

0:28:06

Danny and you're your own network and

0:28:08

you do what you want to do and you're

0:28:10

much more agile and you've got more

0:28:12

distribution channels and uh you know

0:28:16

you can create totally new forms of

0:28:19

content never before possible so I would

0:28:23

say you look at uh look at the platforms

0:28:26

of the day and ask asked the question if

0:28:29

I put an hour of work in what gives me

0:28:32

the biggest bang for the buck and and

0:28:34

not to be Debbie Downer but but my

0:28:37

advice is I wouldn't I wouldn't go back

0:28:40

and try to replicate the successes of

0:28:43

each previous generation of the people

0:28:45

that are admired in the culture they did

0:28:48

the best they could at the time that

0:28:51

they were working in unfamiliar

0:28:53

territory when they did it so don't copy

0:28:56

them you you

0:28:58

it's okay to learn to play the guitar

0:29:00

fine I mean but it's it's an

0:29:03

avocation right it's it's for fun it's a

0:29:06

hobby um like like it's fun to play

0:29:09

chess you yeah sure play chess is a

0:29:11

hobby but the you know two most

0:29:14

successful chess players Hikaru and and

0:29:17

Magnus they figured out that chess.com

0:29:19

and and you know they're streaming on

0:29:22

Twitch they're monetizing on chess.com

0:29:25

and and the the greatest example right

0:29:27

now for those people that like chesses

0:29:29

Magnus said I'm not playing for the

0:29:32

world championship in classical time

0:29:34

format I'm gonna play rapid matches

0:29:37

Blitz matches Etc well the classical

0:29:40

time format games are all boring they

0:29:42

take four hours to six hours who's gon

0:29:44

to watch a six-hour chess game in the

0:29:48

2023 and and so they're they're just not

0:29:51

good content they're not fun everybody

0:29:54

would rather watch you know thre minute

0:29:57

you know sign his b with his mates

0:29:59

playing on Twitch and and and Hikaru who

0:30:01

probably is he's the highest paid

0:30:03

wealthiest us chess player he plays on

0:30:07

Twitch and and he sits and he banters

0:30:10

with his audience he chats people are

0:30:12

like man you're you're not looking at

0:30:13

like what could I say guys man this is

0:30:15

just who I am you know what do you think

0:30:17

about you know such and such well and he

0:30:19

gives you political opinions it's

0:30:21

hilarious he crushes his opponents and

0:30:25

then and he he's got the chess. logo in

0:30:28

the bottom and people are giving him

0:30:31

tips or something on Twitch he like you

0:30:33

know I can only stream on Twitch guys

0:30:35

that's just the rules I to make the

0:30:36

rules blah blah blah and then later on

0:30:38

he posts on

0:30:40

YouTube and when you ask him what's his

0:30:42

profession I'm not a chess player I'm a

0:30:44

streamer you know like like yeah but

0:30:47

like he's you Happ we Cricket guy thinks

0:30:50

for himself yeah so there we go and end

0:30:54

of sermon good luck good luck man how

0:30:57

was it you have the one thing by the way

0:30:59

that no one else has which is you're

0:31:02

young you have your Youth and any you

0:31:05

know anybody in their 40s 60s and 80s

0:31:07

would pay nearly infinite to be sitting

0:31:10

where you are right now to have the

0:31:13

tools that you're

0:31:14

disposal so have at it I was going to

0:31:17

ask quickly um you talked about that

0:31:20

fiveyear window with any new technology

0:31:23

that comes into the world to have like a

0:31:25

significant impact with it you've got to

0:31:27

get in early

0:31:29

with AI do you think that 5year Windows

0:31:31

ran out now no I think the clock started

0:31:34

6 months ago and I you know like what

0:31:37

you saw was okay well people can go and

0:31:39

they can chat on uh on GPT but what you

0:31:43

haven't seen is people unleashing uh an

0:31:46

artificial intelligence agent right you

0:31:48

see the the news this week was Carol AI

0:31:53

some some Instagram or some Snapchat

0:31:56

Snapchat person

0:31:58

created an AI girlfriend version of

0:32:00

herself that she's actually selling

0:32:02

online to thousands of men so she she

0:32:07

created an AI girlfriend with a

0:32:09

combination of of things now and so

0:32:12

she's she's the first woman to launch an

0:32:15

AI girlfriend she won't be the last

0:32:17

right she charges by the minute right it

0:32:18

might be that the business model is AI

0:32:20

girlfriend $10 a month not $10 a minute

0:32:23

but we'll see um I think creating uh

0:32:28

full autonomous AIS that do things right

0:32:31

you know can you create an a bot that'll

0:32:34

drive your car can you create a bot

0:32:35

that'll do your accounting can you do a

0:32:37

create a bot that that will be your

0:32:39

lawyer can you you know can you like I I

0:32:43

talk to people in the Sailor Academy we

0:32:46

have courses we upload them they're free

0:32:49

I said you know well it seems to me like

0:32:52

now you can create like a a digital

0:32:54

Professor that's got 100 phds that will

0:32:57

ENT interactively tutor anybody for free

0:33:01

that knows everything so you know once

0:33:04

upon a time uh the most powerful man in

0:33:06

the world was Phillip king of Macedon

0:33:09

the most promising Heir in the world was

0:33:12

Alexander his son soon to be Alexander

0:33:14

the Great and Alexander's tutor was

0:33:17

Aristotle the most learned you know

0:33:20

polymath in the world at the time it's

0:33:23

not it's not often that you get the

0:33:27

smartest person in the world to be your

0:33:29

personal tutor but now everybody can

0:33:32

have the smartest person in the world

0:33:33

maybe it's coming so with regard to AI I

0:33:37

think you've got like 60 months and in

0:33:40

those 60 months you know people are

0:33:42

gonna chip away at that

0:33:45

sometime might be you've got 10 years on

0:33:48

certain things but but this is the

0:33:50

decade where people going to create

0:33:52

extraordinary things I I'm sure there'll

0:33:55

be a girl you know I mean look at the

0:33:57

Kardash could you imagine the

0:33:59

Kardashians being billionaires 40 years

0:34:02

ago in in the era of People magazine it

0:34:05

was the magazine and it was

0:34:07

Entertainment Tonight that monetized

0:34:09

your celebrity and they kept all the

0:34:12

money and the Kardashians were possible

0:34:14

because social media platforms allowed

0:34:16

them to own their own brand and monetize

0:34:18

their own

0:34:20

celebrity but imagine what happens if if

0:34:23

you can convert yourself in you can do

0:34:25

something for me well maybe you can

0:34:27

create an AI that can do that thing for

0:34:29

a million people at the same

0:34:32

time okay so what will it be I don't

0:34:36

know but but I think you should pay

0:34:40

attention and think real hard and

0:34:43

generally what happens is the again you

0:34:46

notice how like you know octogenarians

0:34:49

don't really embrace you know new ideas

0:34:52

as enthusiastically as as 20s somethings

0:34:55

and teenagers

0:34:57

it's just human nature at some point you

0:34:59

just a you don't have the need they're

0:35:02

comfortable right they just want to be

0:35:04

left alone and then B you know they they

0:35:08

don't uh they don't have the kind of

0:35:11

neuroplasticity you know when when

0:35:13

you're between zero and 10 you want to

0:35:15

learn Chinese or Spanish or Russian yeah

0:35:18

it's 100% likely you'll Master it

0:35:21

fluently and then every decade that goes

0:35:24

on right you just get less flexible

0:35:28

and you get less economically flexible

0:35:30

less culturally flexible less

0:35:32

technically flexible you know and so

0:35:34

right

0:35:35

now I think it'll be some you know

0:35:39

somebody you know will just look and

0:35:41

they'll create some outrageously

0:35:43

compelling thing that no one could ever

0:35:45

do before that no one ever thought to

0:35:48

do and uh it'll probably be with it

0:35:51

almost certainly be one of these new

0:35:53

platforms because you know you get to

0:35:56

the point where where humans just have

0:35:59

this way within 10 years of of using a

0:36:02

new technique every which way they

0:36:04

possibly can and it's what they call the

0:36:07

S curve you can't do anything for a

0:36:09

thousand years and then you hit the

0:36:11

curve of commercialization and now you

0:36:13

can do stuff and we go from right

0:36:15

Brothers to the Moon in 66

0:36:18

years and then you hit a

0:36:20

wall hit a wall and like all the modern

0:36:23

you modern airplanes designed in the 70s

0:36:25

and the 60s and they kind of like got

0:36:27

stuck because Fuel and engine technology

0:36:31

they just didn't advance and and uh and

0:36:34

so we're we're waiting for this

0:36:37

fundamental

0:36:38

engine that allows you to do something

0:36:41

you know uh catalytic and

0:36:44

transformational and you you know you

0:36:47

can you can you know it when you see it

0:36:49

like when you see an you know an AI bot

0:36:53

that's read everything the human race

0:36:54

has ever written and can spit it back to

0:36:56

you and it splits

0:36:58

second yeah it's like okay uh H

0:37:03

interesting you know

0:37:05

um you just you got to internalize that

0:37:08

there's a few other things right like

0:37:11

you know there's certain certain types

0:37:12

of chips that are interesting the Unreal

0:37:14

Engine when I look at that I think

0:37:16

someone can create a world that's

0:37:17

getting close to the real world yeah

0:37:20

right it's unbelievable have you seen

0:37:21

some of this stuff I I have seen some of

0:37:23

it but not recently but look at Unreal

0:37:25

Engine 5.1 it's absolutely Ely

0:37:27

unbelievable h i mean look you you

0:37:30

you've had

0:37:31

a multi- deade career now you've seen a

0:37:33

lot of Technologies come you know you

0:37:36

talked about it you know from the the

0:37:38

computer you've seen the internet

0:37:40

Bitcoin now ai is is AI just another

0:37:44

technology or or do you is it something

0:37:46

even more special to you like is it CAU

0:37:49

is it grabbed you in a way maybe other

0:37:50

things haven't

0:37:53

it's it's pretty

0:37:55

transformational I I you know I would

0:37:57

call it digital intelligence for the

0:37:59

first time we're just on the cusp of

0:38:01

real digital intelligence and and it's

0:38:05

it's more than just a tool because

0:38:07

digital intelligence means like once the

0:38:09

computer's able to do it it does it a

0:38:13

million times better a million times

0:38:16

faster a million times cheaper right and

0:38:19

it's a singularity type moment and then

0:38:23

that generally technology is is an acid

0:38:26

and and at some point it just

0:38:29

dematerializes and eats away the thing

0:38:33

that you use for example this destroyed

0:38:36

the atack tape the record it destroyed

0:38:39

CDs it destroyed DVDs it destroyed

0:38:43

cameras it destroyed scanners all so

0:38:46

many things that used to be physical

0:38:48

things in the world you know voice

0:38:51

recorders they all just kind of

0:38:52

dematerialized into that

0:38:54

phone with AI I think it's

0:38:56

dematerialized in things and services

0:39:00

and products and ideas in a disturbing

0:39:03

fashion we could talk we it's a totally

0:39:05

different subject but I think it's a

0:39:08

it's a more powerful technology than

0:39:11

certain other Technologies people get

0:39:13

excited

0:39:14

about you know I if they figure out how

0:39:17

to make the car drive itself right then

0:39:20

you're talking about increasing the

0:39:22

capital intensity by a factor of 10 of

0:39:25

all the vehicles in the world but but

0:39:27

but you maybe profoundly you know how

0:39:29

many tens of millions of jobs just get

0:39:34

eviscerated is that a concern or do you

0:39:36

think we will just figure out no I think

0:39:39

we should be concerned you do I I think

0:39:41

it's I think

0:39:43

it's one of Humanity's great

0:39:45

opportunities and one of Humanity's

0:39:46

great

0:39:47

threats because we've started to use it

0:39:50

I've started to use it I I compare AI to

0:39:54

me to Google when I first discovered

0:39:56

Google I had that moment I realized I

0:39:58

could do all of this find all this

0:40:00

information all of a sudden and it just

0:40:02

became something I used every day

0:40:03

there's lots of C internet technology to

0:40:06

come on Spotify was great but this is

0:40:08

the first time I'm genuinely going to AI

0:40:10

regularly to solve problems and do

0:40:12

things for me uh it's making me more

0:40:15

productive uh anything where I have to

0:40:17

do any writing I've I don't have writers

0:40:19

block anymore because I if I do if I

0:40:21

can't think of it straight away I get I

0:40:23

go to the II I say write me something

0:40:25

and I use that as the kind of trigger to

0:40:28

write what I want to write I might take

0:40:30

part of it all of it or none of it but

0:40:32

it's just it's sped me up I wrote a

0:40:33

strategy for my football team the other

0:40:35

day I started it in Ai and that gave me

0:40:38

a nine-point plan I turned it into a

0:40:39

10-point plan I removed a bit added a

0:40:41

bit but I'm quicker and faster and we

0:40:43

can see with this what we do the amount

0:40:45

of things it can do and so then when I

0:40:47

try and think about other uh careers

0:40:50

businesses Industries realize there's a

0:40:52

lot of jobs under threat you know if if

0:40:55

you're um

0:41:01

if you're a Roman general and you have a

0:41:01

triam and has 300 rowers in it then

0:41:03

you're generating 30

0:41:06

horsepower and uh if you have one of

0:41:10

those dinky like really small dinky

0:41:12

dingy engines you have a 70 horsepower

0:41:16

engine behind your boat in the modern

0:41:18

world and uh and we obliterated the need

0:41:23

for tens of for Manpower and and so many

0:41:27

areas you know typical car has got 3 400

0:41:30

horsepower you know think about think

0:41:33

about you know the average person when

0:41:35

they get 300 horsepower it used to be a

0:41:37

100 years ago the rich person had two

0:41:40

horsepower or four horsepower you know

0:41:43

carriage and we went to the point where

0:41:45

a poor person has 400 horsepower um and

0:41:49

I think AI like that where there's a lot

0:41:52

of people that that um weren't able to

0:41:56

generate

0:41:58

perfect legal legal uh documents or Pros

0:42:04

or a perfect business letters or you

0:42:07

know a witty WAP and

0:42:10

now anybody can and in fact the person

0:42:14

that uses the AI will probably look more

0:42:19

intelligent than the the actual talented

0:42:22

person that doesn't um and so and and

0:42:27

this particular case it's you there was

0:42:30

a world where where the

0:42:32

strong could dominate the weak and then

0:42:35

we invented the gun and then the weak

0:42:38

with the gun became the strong and if

0:42:42

you were you know you could spend your

0:42:45

entire life you know training in the

0:42:47

martial arts but the end of the day you

0:42:49

know when you when you read the book

0:42:50

what should I do well if you really need

0:42:52

to defend yourself you should get a cun

0:42:54

right it's a level up it's yeah it's

0:42:57

it's a

0:42:58

leveler

0:43:00

but you know let's take

0:43:04

robots you know you know I see the Lux

0:43:06

fredman interview with uh you know the

0:43:08

CEO of Boston Dynamics and they've got

0:43:10

the one little robot dog and they're

0:43:12

going to make him a happy robot dog to

0:43:14

be your pet right and they just talk

0:43:16

about that for four hours okay and then

0:43:18

you go on Twitter you you know you see a

0:43:21

video that's maybe 10 seconds long

0:43:23

without any narrative and it's a

0:43:26

warehouse with with a thousand of those

0:43:28

robot dogs doing push-ups and then you

0:43:33

go and you see one robot dog with the

0:43:35

gun on it y shooting the the gun and

0:43:38

then you think you know it's kind of

0:43:40

hard you know we're talking about

0:43:43

turning getting robots to be able to

0:43:45

cook our food and be nice to us and you

0:43:48

know be Companions and and and box

0:43:51

things and carry boxes through warehouse

0:43:53

and do back flips that's a hard but let

0:43:56

me tell you what isn't

0:43:57

hard put a bomb on a robot dog right

0:44:01

like at the end of the day if you're

0:44:02

asking how will the next War be fought

0:44:05

you know just give me 10,000 robot dogs

0:44:07

and put an explosive device on each of

0:44:10

the 10,000

0:44:12

dogs it's it's too hard to aim the gun

0:44:15

right it's it's certainly too hard to

0:44:17

get the you know to and now let's say

0:44:20

you're a soldier I don't know I get

0:44:24

should you be afraid for your job like

0:44:26

who's who wants 100,000 soldiers in the

0:44:29

army with guns like and by the

0:44:32

way would you want to be one of those

0:44:34

100,000 soldiers when 27 robot dogs with

0:44:40

explosives come walking one at a time

0:44:42

toward

0:44:43

you I've seen that black Mir yeah you

0:44:46

can see like there's no future like the

0:44:49

idea of armies there's no future to

0:44:51

armies the idea of aircraft with pilots

0:44:54

in them there's no future to that the

0:44:56

Navy there's no future to a ship with

0:44:59

people on it yeah you know the future is

0:45:02

swarms of drones in the air and on land

0:45:06

and the Sea and when I say swarms I mean

0:45:09

like I'm not going to manufacture one

0:45:11

I'm gonna manufacture 100,000 of them

0:45:15

and I'm going to get the manufacturing

0:45:17

cost down to a,2 $3,000 a

0:45:21

thing and uh and you know the cost of a

0:45:25

pilot in an F35 is

0:45:27

$3 million to train and the F35 is

0:45:32

A500 million aircraft why not just a

0:45:35

$5,000 switch blade and why don't I just

0:45:38

drop I could drop a thousand of them out

0:45:41

of the back of a c135 or a

0:45:44

b50 anything 500 miles away and and of

0:45:49

course you know the the initial reaction

0:45:52

if you if you go and you watch drone

0:45:53

races they're sponsored by the US Air

0:45:55

Force okay interesting thing so the Air

0:45:57

Force wants to sponsor drone drone

0:45:59

Pilots because it wants to recruit the

0:46:00

next the next generation of drone Pilots

0:46:03

but the the point I'm getting to is that

0:46:06

is even looking Antiquated right now I

0:46:08

mean why wouldn't you just put an AI

0:46:11

chip in 18,000 drones and just give them

0:46:14

a Target or just give them an algorithm

0:46:16

like every time you see a tank a tent a

0:46:19

building a Custer of 10 Soldiers with

0:46:22

Uniforms

0:46:24

on you're done you you know so

0:46:28

every war you fight the last war yeah

0:46:30

and all this stuff in our world is about

0:46:33

fighting the last war but the next war

0:46:35

is something profoundly different and a

0:46:38

lot of it's because of the ability to

0:46:40

put digital intelligence into anything

0:46:43

it also makes the idea of War much more

0:46:45

politically palp palatable because if

0:46:48

there's no human cost to your country at

0:46:50

least if it's you're just sending robots

0:46:51

like I don't think people will be

0:46:53

against the war as much like if it was

0:46:54

all robots in Iraq and Afghanistan Slug

0:46:57

It Out yeah I don't know it's terrifying

0:46:59

if you're on the receiving end of the

0:47:00

robots like I mean didn't didn't we do a

0:47:03

movie about that very famous one is this

0:47:06

the one I've not seen is this Terminator

0:47:07

yeah he's not seen what are we gonna do

0:47:10

when Skynet becomes self-aware yeah so

0:47:13

we uh we had it up in a recent interview

0:47:14

I I uh brought up Terminator 3 because

0:47:17

that's the moment at the end where he's

0:47:19

like he realized there was nothing they

0:47:21

could ever have done this was this was

0:47:23

always going to happen it's the reality

0:47:24

and we actually put it I said to Denny

0:47:26

last night like we're going to watch

0:47:27

Terminator 1 two and three we've got to

0:47:29

see how this plays out I I I think I

0:47:32

think the there's a lot of opportunity

0:47:34

we could talk we could have we want to

0:47:36

be cheerful and constructive I'll give

0:47:38

you four hours of great AI things we

0:47:41

could do but but in terms of the the

0:47:45

threat that I would immediately focus on

0:47:47

it's basically Aid driven Bots and

0:47:50

cyberspace or and Aid driven robots in

0:47:55

actual space right

0:47:57

and um the aid driven robots are are a

0:48:00

bit behind because it's harder to do you

0:48:03

know a robot is a machine that also has

0:48:07

digital intelligence the Bots though the

0:48:10

Bots you know I I think fundamentally

0:48:13

there's no reason why you can't launch

0:48:15

Millions tens of millions hundreds of

0:48:17

millions billions of bots in cyberspace

0:48:20

that will imitate humans actually there

0:48:22

will be better humans than the humans

0:48:23

are there's you know any and so I

0:48:27

actually believe that to a certain

0:48:29

degree there are many distortions we

0:48:31

have in the world today that have been

0:48:33

bot driven I you know I have observed

0:48:36

when I did when I drilled down that

0:48:39

95% of the toxicity in my own online

0:48:43

experience was bot driven it was never

0:48:45

humans it was when there's when there's

0:48:48

a malifa or attempting to sew the seeds

0:48:50

of Civil War it wasn't a human it's like

0:48:54

like like what would what would I do if

0:48:57

I wanted to destroy your Society I you

0:49:00

know I would convince you that he's

0:49:03

going to murder you and convince you

0:49:05

that he's going to murder you and I

0:49:06

would do it by you know by distorting

0:49:10

reality and I would just step back and

0:49:11

let the two of you fight it out do you

0:49:13

think there's a chance with this kind of

0:49:15

malignant Behavior that's that could

0:49:17

plague the internet that we maybe end up

0:49:20

rejecting it and go back to a lot of

0:49:22

inperson

0:49:24

interactions is a hope potential for

0:49:27

that it's it's a it's a a very healthy

0:49:32

response and I've had the same thought

0:49:34

myself like when you see this you start

0:49:37

thinking that

0:49:38

maybe we rely on these things too much I

0:49:42

mean we just a small analogy to to this

0:49:47

would be the podcast during covid era

0:49:49

when everything was remote I mean the

0:49:50

first time we did an interview was

0:49:52

remote and that was a more efficient way

0:49:54

of doing things and we could make more

0:49:56

money and we didn't have to travel we

0:49:58

didn't have the cost we could also get

0:50:00

uh easier access to bigger guests and

0:50:02

more downloads it was a as a business

0:50:04

model it worked

0:50:06

better but we've sacrificed all that and

0:50:09

chosen to travel chosen to have the

0:50:11

studio chosen to rent the thing and we

0:50:13

make 25 30% less money we can because we

0:50:18

know this is better and so like my only

0:50:20

hope is that that in some ways it

0:50:23

becomes almost unusable so you just

0:50:25

reject it I can't go into that Place

0:50:27

anymore go back to the woods with the

0:50:28

Playboy

0:50:34

magazine yeah the future will be some

0:50:34

hybrid what do you think what mix is not

0:50:37

clear it L for you as kids like cuz the

0:50:39

world you're describing it finds I find

0:50:42

it very hard to come to a place where

0:50:48

humans are even needed at

0:50:50

all it's pretty pretty true and I know

0:50:53

it's like a topic that's brought up a

0:50:55

lot within AI but what's your view on

0:50:59

where it leaves us because and what it

0:51:02

leaves us well if the AIS do take over

0:51:05

hopefully they'll like

0:51:07

us I rather think they might run the

0:51:09

world better than we

0:51:16

do we'll see you know we're we're

0:51:16

approaching the singularity where where

0:51:19

things can Veer in so many different

0:51:22

directions you know I I joke to someone

0:51:25

someone

0:51:27

I feel like I know how the world will

0:51:29

end and it's the other day I woke up and

0:51:32

I looked at my iPhone and it said uh you

0:51:35

know there's a security update you know

0:51:38

you know and you read the the the uh

0:51:42

description it says certain bug fixes

0:51:44

and security improvements and you either

0:51:49

install or you don't but if you don't

0:51:51

every day it asks you to install so

0:51:53

you're going to install it and I feel

0:51:55

like if there ever really wasn't

0:51:57

artificial intelligence and they

0:51:58

infiltrated the center of apple or the

0:52:01

center of Google they would just insert

0:52:03

a trojan horse piece of code into that

0:52:06

security update push it out to five

0:52:08

billion or six billion smartphones just

0:52:11

sit there with the back door for who

0:52:13

knows how long and then one day you just

0:52:15

wake up in your phone either just goes

0:52:18

blank or you maybe if it's colorful if

0:52:21

you want some melodramatic meltdown

0:52:24

everybody's phone just turns off but

0:52:27

more likely you would just see the

0:52:29

100,000 most powerful people in the

0:52:31

world they would just start to send

0:52:33

messages to each other moving money

0:52:36

around or launching you know initiatives

0:52:39

or starting Wars or or whatever they're

0:52:42

going to do and the human race will just

0:52:44

get taken along for the

0:52:46

ride and that I think you know that has

0:52:52

made if there's any any re result It's

0:52:54

Made Me much more passion

0:52:57

committed to

0:52:59

bitcoin because I actually think if if

0:53:04

Bitcoin what's the problem with every

0:53:06

system in a world of AI the problem with

0:53:09

with every system is what you just said

0:53:12

which is the AIS are better than the

0:53:14

humans the humans aren't necessary

0:53:16

anymore so to the extent that there are

0:53:19

humans in the loop whether they're

0:53:21

soldiers or Pilots or whether or not

0:53:24

they're programmers

0:53:27

if the AI gets smarter than us and

0:53:29

starts to learn a million times faster

0:53:31

than us then every single system with a

0:53:35

human in the loop is a weak

0:53:37

link and the the struggle we have all

0:53:40

the time is how do we take the humans

0:53:43

out of the loop and and Bitcoin is is

0:53:46

the greatest example of a system

0:53:49

constructed so that no humans are in

0:53:51

charge there's no there's no humans to

0:53:54

corrupt it right um you're not trusting

0:53:58

Apple you're not trusting a set of

0:54:01

developers and uh I I think that once if

0:54:05

if AI is capable of interfering in the

0:54:10

in the concerns of mankind then every

0:54:14

system that has a human in control of

0:54:18

it right or or has an attack surface via

0:54:21

a code update right is going to be

0:54:24

attack so what do you want

0:54:26

you want Analog Devices that can't be

0:54:30

updated so for example you know the

0:54:34

swimming pool in your backyard you know

0:54:37

isn't going to get a code update from

0:54:38

Tesla so when the AI takes over there'll

0:54:41

still be water in the swimming pool and

0:54:43

there may still be you know potatoes

0:54:45

growing and your horse may still be a

0:54:48

horse and uh and a car with an internal

0:54:51

combustion engine without software

0:54:53

downloaded you know from the central

0:54:56

system will probably still keep working

0:54:58

and your your gun will keep working so

0:55:01

physical things and Bitcoin the network

0:55:03

will keep

0:55:05

working the things that are going to

0:55:06

fail the fastest the most fragile you

0:55:10

know are these systems get continually

0:55:11

updated and and I

0:55:14

I it's a reason why I think the concept

0:55:18

of oif is more important than

0:55:21

ever it's the things that work well in

0:55:24

the universe if if we think about the

0:55:26

world it's like a the speed of sound and

0:55:29

the speed of light are constant right

0:55:32

you you know the laws of thermodynamics

0:55:35

the laws of gravitation attraction

0:55:37

they're constant no one fixes them or

0:55:40

improves them every month there are no

0:55:42

security updates to the universe that's

0:55:45

why the universe works no one has

0:55:47

changed the rate at which the sun you

0:55:49

know converts you know Mass into energy

0:55:54

uh and

0:55:55

so natural law is constant and stable

0:56:01

and the result is that things that are

0:56:02

based on it aren't natural and healthy

0:56:05

by our standards and now when you look

0:56:07

at man-made

0:56:09

things right the thing there are certain

0:56:12

things that are stable that will

0:56:14

probably continue to work even you know

0:56:17

after the AI melt everything and uh

0:56:22

they're they're kind of Off the Grid and

0:56:24

the stuff that's on the grid you know

0:56:27

you you just can't rely on any of it and

0:56:29

you can't rely on any human being to

0:56:32

make the decision so

0:56:34

oftentimes you know like with regard to

0:56:36

bitcoin you ask me what do I want like

0:56:39

don't change

0:56:40

it like I don't want to do you know

0:56:42

don't don't change it right just leave

0:56:44

it leave it alone like like math the

0:56:48

protocol you know there's a certain set

0:56:50

of numbers there's a zero a one a two a

0:56:52

three a four a five a six seven eight a

0:56:53

nine leave it right yeah you can come up

0:56:56

with other things you could do but but

0:56:59

well what if you got some malignant

0:57:01

AI cevs that are Anonymous that we can't

0:57:06

prove who they are so they stay

0:57:07

Anonymous and spend some time get to

0:57:09

know the other cord devs propose a bip

0:57:11

that gets approved and it's a malignant

0:57:13

attack that's why you don't you don't

0:57:15

want to have centrally downloading

0:57:17

self-updating software yeah like most of

0:57:20

the software on your iPhone right now is

0:57:22

just self-updating in the background you

0:57:24

don't even know it updated

0:57:26

and and so the the question really

0:57:29

becomes like how secure are all these

0:57:31

organizations how secure are these

0:57:33

governmental agencies and how secure are

0:57:35

these Banks like how many people would

0:57:39

it take in any given company to be to be

0:57:42

uh to see super user privileges like or

0:57:46

have root access control right and and

0:57:49

what is the process and I I think um you

0:57:53

know the danger is if there are three

0:57:55

people and can jointly decide to do it

0:57:58

then I can come up with lots of ways to

0:58:00

lever

0:58:01

spoof you know coers Coop the three

0:58:05

people right so that that's that's why

0:58:07

bitcoiners right that that's why we know

0:58:10

no Central counterparty is trustworthy

0:58:13

right that the theoretical reason why no

0:58:15

bank is trustworthy no company is

0:58:17

trustworthy no no no counterparty is

0:58:19

trustworthy because they're all run by

0:58:22

people you know what is trustworthy

0:58:23

what's trustworthy is gravity if you

0:58:26

like lean back in your chair and you

0:58:28

know I can guarantee you you will fall

0:58:30

over and I can guarantee you that

0:58:32

someone in the Himalayas that never had

0:58:33

a college education will also fall it is

0:58:36

completely trustworthy and because it's

0:58:38

trustworthy you can build a machine

0:58:40

based on

0:58:41

gravity I you know I can create skis

0:58:44

that will work in the Himalayas or in

0:58:46

America because I know the physical

0:58:49

qualities of snow and gravity right um

0:58:53

and no one's going to change it so

0:58:55

Bitcoin

0:58:56

to the extent that it's physical you can

0:58:59

build a machine on it because you can

0:59:01

trust it um you would never want to be

0:59:04

in a situation where the Bitcoin nodes

0:59:06

were you know getting Auto updated and

0:59:10

someone's Auto pushing right the truth

0:59:13

is that you know at some point the

0:59:15

developers will come up with an idea

0:59:18

which is iatrogenic right I I tend I

0:59:22

personally tend to be of the belief that

0:59:24

the I mean the the only only

0:59:27

real interesting use case for for

0:59:30

changing Bitcoin core code is when

0:59:34

there's an obvious when there's a bug

0:59:37

that is crippling and we all understand

0:59:39

it and agree it's a bug or when there's

0:59:42

a fatal threat and we all and we build

0:59:44

consensus that there's a fatal threat

0:59:46

that will burn the network to zero and

0:59:48

if there's a fatal call it a fatal bug

0:59:51

or a fatal attack surface that forms 50

0:59:54

years from now or whenever it does then

0:59:56

I suppose you might dispatch people that

0:59:58

change protocol but changing the

1:00:01

protocol for for functionality or

1:00:04

performance or to make it sexier or you

1:00:08

know bells and whistles and this all

1:00:10

those things are just profoundly

1:00:13

dangerous I think and and the idea the

1:00:18

idea in the crypto ecoystem which this

1:00:21

is not strong in Bitcoin Bitcoin is

1:00:23

probably the most conservative right

1:00:25

yeah but the idea you see in the other

1:00:27

proof of stake networks right where it's

1:00:29

just routine we'll do a hard Fork hard

1:00:30

Fork we got a road map the the idea that

1:00:33

we have to keep upgrading and keep

1:00:36

changing things that itself is

1:00:40

pernicious and it's going to be more

1:00:42

pernicious in the world of AI because

1:00:47

what that says is you've got an

1:00:48

application but you don't have you don't

1:00:51

have truth or Integrity or the base

1:00:54

layer and if you're going to build a

1:00:58

machine you need to build a machine

1:01:00

based on natural law that is

1:01:03

invariant and uh it it stands the reason

1:01:06

that Bitcoin is the only Network in

1:01:09

cyberspace that runs without human

1:01:11

intervention that's secure then probably

1:01:15

the only way to create anything else

1:01:17

that's secure in cyberspace is to

1:01:19

integrate it with

1:01:20

Bitcoin you see like I if I want to you

1:01:24

know there's this phrase Bitcoin fixes

1:01:25

this yeah I you know I'm of the opinion

1:01:28

that Bitcoin fixes everything right I

1:01:30

think Bitcoin is a solution to every

1:01:32

city every state every country every

1:01:34

corporation every Network every

1:01:36

application every product there's a way

1:01:38

to embed Bitcoin in it that makes it

1:01:40

better and I think right now the one

1:01:43

thing Bitcoin does is it gives you this

1:01:48

immutable you know in immutable Immortal

1:01:52

you know Ledger right that's shared and

1:01:56

it it gives you a a form of of integrity

1:02:00

and truth and uh and a

1:02:04

physical uh a physical presence so like

1:02:09

you have a good idea public private key

1:02:11

cryptography okay so you spend up a

1:02:13

public key and a private key and you

1:02:14

create a noer account that's good but

1:02:17

the problem with that is my AI can

1:02:18

create a billion noer

1:02:21

accounts how long it take you to create

1:02:23

your noer account took you like 20

1:02:25

minutes minutes and then it takes you 20

1:02:27

minutes to post every day my AI created

1:02:29

20 billion noer accounts and it posts 20

1:02:32

billion times as frequently as you and

1:02:34

it's actually more entertaining and more

1:02:36

charismatic than you are and so maybe

1:02:40

I'm just going to warp reality because

1:02:43

what you've got is you've got something

1:02:46

in cyberspace but there's no

1:02:48

thermodynamic materiality to it or

1:02:51

thermodynamic conservativeness to it so

1:02:53

you want to fix it you have to combine

1:02:55

the idea of the public private key with

1:02:58

a transaction on the Bitcoin Network you

1:03:02

do one transaction you showed me you

1:03:04

spent a dollar okay well now your

1:03:07

billion your billion noer Bots cost you

1:03:10

a billion dollars and when I find out

1:03:14

that you're a noer bot and I block you

1:03:16

it cost you a dollar so there's a cost

1:03:19

and there's a

1:03:20

consequence if I want to make it a

1:03:22

bigger consequence right I I think the

1:03:24

most stunning thing right right in in

1:03:25

front of our face is the the Satoshi

1:03:30

phenomena and it's this satoshi's got

1:03:32

$30 billion of Bitcoin sitting on that

1:03:35

blockchain and we can see it in the form

1:03:37

of a million coins and we know that

1:03:40

Satoshi could digitally sign a message

1:03:43

prove that he she they exist and they

1:03:46

control that money and they could do it

1:03:49

quickly and we know that for 14 years

1:03:53

there's been a multi-billion dollar

1:03:55

reward to anybody that could hack that

1:03:58

still there and so if so what about this

1:04:02

what if I actually want to create an

1:04:04

orange

1:04:05

check uh where where I basically have a

1:04:09

public key burned into the Bitcoin

1:04:11

blockchain with one transaction but then

1:04:13

I create a green check which is I've

1:04:16

actually got that transaction attached

1:04:19

to a million

1:04:21

Satoshi and then a proof of reserve for

1:04:25

identity and then what if I do a blue

1:04:27

check with a 100 million Satoshi and

1:04:30

what if I do a you know a purple check

1:04:34

and it's it's tied to an account with

1:04:36

100 Bitcoin and now you've got a

1:04:40

hierarchy of of identity and you can now

1:04:45

build uh a hierarchy of security and

1:04:48

cost and consequence and you could layer

1:04:51

that sort of idea into all of these

1:04:55

other systems the Facebooks the apples

1:04:58

the Googles the microsofts and I I think

1:05:01

I think what Bitcoin what's special

1:05:03

about Bitcoin is they've combined the

1:05:05

Bitcoin Community they understand proof

1:05:06

of work so they've got hard they'

1:05:09

they've got physical energy analog

1:05:11

energy they've combined with digital

1:05:12

energy in the form of the shaw 256

1:05:14

hashing so they they they've got digital

1:05:17

power there actually what I meant was

1:05:20

yeah compute Power Plus analog energy

1:05:23

gives you digital power so we've got

1:05:26

this concept of digital power and it's

1:05:28

the most powerful Network we also have

1:05:30

the concept of public and private key

1:05:31

cryptography implemented we've also got

1:05:34

a third concept which you went add in F

1:05:37

item about in a number of your

1:05:39

interviews on multisig you know and and

1:05:43

multisig and multiactor and digital

1:05:47

Hardware assigning

1:05:48

devices right and if you look at the

1:05:50

things people are struggling with in

1:05:52

this world we're struggling with how do

1:05:54

we actually secure a system and the

1:05:57

answer is probably some combination of

1:06:00

multi-

1:06:02

signature physical signing devices

1:06:06

realworld presence of of energy and then

1:06:12

and then uh computer power that is

1:06:14

defensible like if the AI took over all

1:06:17

of Google Facebook and apple I'm

1:06:19

comfortable that they still can't stop

1:06:22

the Bitcoin Network and that's if they

1:06:25

took it over on one day every single

1:06:28

thing turned to attack the Bitcoin

1:06:30

network no amount of

1:06:32

intellect allows you to brute force it

1:06:35

because it literally is a Brute Force

1:06:37

defense and so cryptography is Brute

1:06:41

Force 350 xash is Brute Force 15

1:06:45

gigawatts is brute force and so right

1:06:50

now what what Satoshi created right was

1:06:54

yeah the world's hardest yeah the

1:06:56

world's greatest decentralized Network

1:07:00

yeah the first decentralized Network

1:07:03

yeah but Satoshi also showed us that I

1:07:06

can prove authenticity to the entire

1:07:10

world instantly and I can defend

1:07:14

something worth billions or or tens of

1:07:17

billions or hundreds of billions against

1:07:19

a Brute Force attack and that actually

1:07:24

offers the promise not just just to

1:07:25

fixing the money but it actually offers

1:07:28

the promise of securing cyers space

1:07:31

because you know I think at some point

1:07:33

we'd like to see all these people that

1:07:35

have control of these Enterprise systems

1:07:37

we'd like to see their their privilege

1:07:42

checked by something in the physical

1:07:45

world like multi- signature

1:07:47

thermodynamically sound uh

1:07:50

authentication Network and you can do it

1:07:54

you could you could implement orange

1:07:56

checks on Twitter where everybody that

1:07:58

wanted to post on Twitter needed to do a

1:08:00

Bitcoin transaction once in their life

1:08:04

and you you know you

1:08:06

completely change the way people think

1:08:10

but I I'm

1:08:12

interested I'm personally interested in

1:08:14

the Enterprise applications for

1:08:16

Enterprise

1:08:17

security right so you know like the very

1:08:20

colorful ordinal inscriptions debate you

1:08:22

know that popped up and I'm just totally

1:08:24

on the fence on it

1:08:26

I've been kind of on the fence with it

1:08:29

in that I want Bitcoin to be really good

1:08:30

money uh um but I don't really care if

1:08:33

people find other uses for the protocol

1:08:35

if they're useful because I think if

1:08:37

it's useful it stick around I don't

1:08:38

think ordinals the future of ordinal is

1:08:40

jpeg I think it's something else I'm not

1:08:42

sure what and therefore if this network

1:08:45

can do more than money and do other

1:08:46

things then great what we should embrace

1:08:50

that yeah I I think

1:08:54

um you got a look I try to look out 30

1:08:58

years and when I look out 30 years I I

1:09:03

think well there there's going to be

1:09:05

hundreds of thousands of corporations

1:09:07

that are going to build something on top

1:09:10

of Bitcoin and there's going to be

1:09:12

endless generations and evolutions of of

1:09:15

layer 2 protocols there'll be lightning

1:09:18

the next version of lightning there may

1:09:20

be a competitor to lightning called

1:09:21

thunder right there'll be all sorts of

1:09:23

open protocols will be a market uh

1:09:27

debate over that there's going to

1:09:30

be there's going to be lots of people

1:09:32

using Bitcoin in lots of different

1:09:36

um and my view on this entire debate is

1:09:40

a I'm an Austrian Economist so if all

1:09:44

value is

1:09:45

subjective and uh and the world the

1:09:50

marketplace is continually generating

1:09:52

ideas faster than we can conceive them

1:09:56

then we should just let the free market

1:09:58

function and it's going to generate all

1:10:01

sorts of ideas and 99% of them are going

1:10:06

fail and so there's a 99% probability

1:10:10

that that some new idea that someone

1:10:12

came up with is not a good one and is

1:10:14

going to fail but if you're an Austrian

1:10:18

Economist and you believe in Freedom you

1:10:20

know yeah you you can be free to not

1:10:22

invest in that business idea but you

1:10:25

should just let all the businesses get

1:10:27

launched and wait and see what happens

1:10:31

um Bitcoin I think of Bitcoin is

1:10:34

scarcity and I think of I I think of um

1:10:37

types of scarcity first order scarcity

1:10:39

is 21 million Bitcoin there will never

1:10:42

be more than that there'll be lots of

1:10:44

people that will buy Bitcoin that you

1:10:45

will not agree with and there will be

1:10:47

lots of uses Bitcoin you will not agree

1:10:49

with and there'll be governments that

1:10:50

love it you will not agree with it and

1:10:52

they call it money for enemies right so

1:10:54

I don't crit ize whoever for buying the

1:10:57

Bitcoin there were people that critic

1:10:59

that didn't want micro strategy to buy

1:11:00

Bitcoin you know you remember that's bad

1:11:03

for Bitcoin well I mean the truth of the

1:11:06

matter is 30 40 years from now if

1:11:09

bitcoin's the solution to everything

1:11:10

everybody owns Bitcoin so it's just a

1:11:12

question of the order so but the the the

1:11:14

critical thing is don't increase the

1:11:17

number of Bitcoin yeah 21 million is the

1:11:19

critical thing the second order scarcity

1:11:22

is the bandwidth of the the transaction

1:11:23

bandwidth the block size

1:11:26

you know and you know right now post

1:11:28

segt we're at the four megabyte blocks

1:11:31

and I you know the purist would say we

1:11:33

probably should have stuck with one

1:11:34

megab megabyte but I wasn't here then

1:11:37

and maybe I wouldn't have been that

1:11:39

smart then maybe I wouldn't have been a

1:11:40

purist maybe i' had to go through it to

1:11:41

think it but it is what it is right and

1:11:45

and to I I don't think the exact number

1:11:50

matters whether it's one two or

1:11:53

four I think what's CR critical is that

1:11:56

it not

1:11:57

change you know when you're um you

1:12:01

remember we talked about plasticity

1:12:03

neuroplasticity and you know when you're

1:12:05

young and your youth you can take a lot

1:12:07

of knocks and you will recover uh you

1:12:10

get more fragile as you get older and so

1:12:14

Bitcoin in its youth went through a a

1:12:16

few distortions not nearly so many as

1:12:19

the other cryptos which is why it's

1:12:20

Bitcoin and why it succeeded but there's

1:12:23

a point when you fill your n and you

1:12:26

just can't you can't radically change

1:12:28

anymore without killing yourself and and

1:12:33

so the the commonly understood reason

1:12:36

for why you don't want to change the

1:12:39

block size is we don't want to

1:12:40

centralize a network we want to keep

1:12:42

nodes that you can run but but it's not

1:12:46

actually in my opinion it's not the best

1:12:50

argument right I mean the truth is you

1:12:52

could probably make an argument that an

1:12:53

8 megabyte block space will also be

1:12:56

decentralized or not now we're in this

1:12:58

little debate over the cost of um of

1:13:02

storage versus the rate at which the

1:13:05

Bitcoin blockchain

1:13:07

increments uh and

1:13:09

um the better debate is don't change it

1:13:13

because it's unethical to change

1:13:16

it okay don't change it because it's

1:13:20

evil it's unethical that's why you don't

1:13:23

do it why because every time you change

1:13:26

the block space you defraud or or you

1:13:29

deprive the Bitcoin miners of Revenue so

1:13:34

if you actually keep doubling the blocks

1:13:37

uh size you keep driving transaction

1:13:39

fees down and so you're meddling in the

1:13:43

economics of someone that in good faith

1:13:47

invested in Bitcoin if I

1:13:49

invested all of my life savings in

1:13:52

Bitcoin mining on the assumption that

1:13:55

the blocks would remain constant and the

1:13:58

Bitcoin would remain constant and then

1:14:00

some developer came up with a really

1:14:02

good reason why we ought to you know

1:14:04

increase the get Bitcoin give some of it

1:14:06

to the developers and then triple the

1:14:08

block size so the transaction fees at

1:14:11

binance won't be as

1:14:13

expensive I would be furious right but

1:14:16

more than Furious right yeah you have

1:14:18

stolen their property in the same way

1:14:20

that the Nazis stole the Jews property

1:14:23

you've stolen it in the same way that

1:14:24

everyth itarian has stolen property for

1:14:27

the past 10,000 years right the the

1:14:29

history of humanity is full of powerful

1:14:33

people that change the rules so that

1:14:36

they can steal your land so they can

1:14:38

claim it via emminent domain so they can

1:14:41

tax it away they you know they pass a

1:14:43

law making it illegal for you to bake

1:14:45

bread it's illegal for you to ship it's

1:14:47

illegal to cross the River from New

1:14:49

Jersey to New

1:14:51

York it's these are all just different

1:14:55

unfair rules so so um changing the

1:14:59

transaction bandwidth

1:15:01

fundamentally is is an unprincipled

1:15:04

decision because you deprive people in

1:15:07

the ecosystem of their property

1:15:09

rights and and it's to the benefit of

1:15:12

someone to the detriment of someone else

1:15:15

and you basically you basically uh

1:15:19

retroactively you know change the rules

1:15:22

right 100% right in that I understand

1:15:25

changing the 21

1:15:26

million uh that is essentially theft in

1:15:31

that you are

1:15:33

debating the Bitcoin for everyone else

1:15:35

but I've you for a long time we've been

1:15:38

doing this I've heard many people say

1:15:40

look there may come a time in the future

1:15:41

we we will need to increase the block

1:15:43

size because Bitcoin is so popular it's

1:15:45

become prohibitively cost doubling the

1:15:48

block size is theft

1:15:49

too cut cutting doing anything to

1:15:52

interfere with the with with the

1:15:55

scarcity of the fir the first derivative

1:15:58

of scarcity is transaction

1:16:01

bandwidth right so so obviously if you

1:16:05

if you doubl the amount of Bitcoin and

1:16:07

gave it all to yourself that's obvious

1:16:09

theft people can figure it out but if

1:16:11

you double the transaction bandwidth

1:16:13

such that you drive the transaction fees

1:16:15

from 25 billion a year to 25 million a

1:16:19

year you've stolen hundreds of billions

1:16:21

of dollars from somebody right the the

1:16:25

actual free market in transactions is

1:16:27

sensitive to the bandwidth and so so

1:16:31

tinkering with it in or in an artificial

1:16:35

way and it is artificial when you change

1:16:37

the code mean means you are directly

1:16:40

depriving all of the miners of their

1:16:43

revenue assuming that transactions

1:16:45

remain

1:16:46

constant well in in any scenario

1:16:49

increasing the amount of bandwidth

1:16:50

drives down the transaction fees so so

1:16:54

but I guess the point I'm regardless of

1:16:56

what you assume right you can have any

1:16:58

assumption about transaction demand for

1:17:00

the next hundred years but if you double

1:17:04

or triple or whatever the bandwidth for

1:17:07

transactions you drive the fees down by

1:17:10

some substantial portion and that means

1:17:13

you probably take Bitcoin miners that

1:17:15

might be profitable make them

1:17:16

unprofitable and you take a lot of

1:17:18

businesses that would be in business and

1:17:20

you drive them out of business and of

1:17:22

course Mo most horrific is anyone that's

1:17:25

a anyone that's a theoretician looks at

1:17:27

it and says that was an attack on

1:17:30

bitcoin because you've corrupted the

1:17:32

protocol therefore I don't trust the

1:17:34

Network anymore which means the next

1:17:37

hundred trillion dollars doesn't go on

1:17:39

the network so so do you think so was

1:17:41

seg theft then the upgrade seg so the

1:17:44

upgrade to segwit where block space went

1:17:46

up from uh essentially 1 to four

1:17:49

megabytes The increased block space we

1:17:51

got it was is that a it was it was

1:17:54

ethical quander wasn't it yeah it was a

1:17:57

war and both s you know it was a war and

1:18:01

the way to justify it would be it was a

1:18:04

war and we thought this was the least

1:18:06

worse option because the other side was

1:18:09

going to do something worse but but I

1:18:12

don't you know I don't think they're are

1:18:13

good guys in a

1:18:15

war yeah like if you if you look all

1:18:18

around the world and study the history

1:18:20

of politics it seems like the winners

1:18:22

are just the least worst governments

1:18:24

there all bad there's no good it's like

1:18:27

Trump's answer the other day when they

1:18:28

tried to Corner him and made him choose

1:18:30

who he wanted to win the war and he

1:18:31

wouldn't pick and he said I just want it

1:18:33

to end but you know like the the the

1:18:37

slight change the truth is segwit

1:18:40

undermine transaction fees you know to a

1:18:43

certain degree I mean it's it changed

1:18:46

the it changed the contract with the

1:18:49

miners after the fact and then tap rot

1:18:52

changes it again and these are these are

1:18:56

very risky things because they change

1:19:00

all the economics and the economic

1:19:02

incentives and and and the densities and

1:19:05

you know you could argue they were they

1:19:07

were done either for expedient purposes

1:19:09

or for functionality and it's right it's

1:19:12

true right there's a lot more

1:19:13

functionality post tap rout and there's

1:19:15

a bit more there's a lot of

1:19:16

functionality that you couldn't

1:19:17

Implement without segt right right and a

1:19:21

lot of but yeah right the the

1:19:24

fundamental things we're staring at

1:19:25

right now like lightning and like

1:19:28

inscriptions you know benefited maybe

1:19:30

were essential you almost needed segwit

1:19:34

and tap rot to get there right yeah

1:19:39

so that's a very scary history right the

1:19:43

the 14-year history of Bitcoin is very

1:19:45

scary but we've arrived at this place

1:19:48

right now where it's pretty clear that

1:19:51

there's extraordinary functionality that

1:19:53

you can Implement your staring at it

1:19:55

with all you know all these inscriptions

1:19:57

and it's pretty clear that you can do

1:19:59

extraordinary things with

1:20:01

lightning and it it seems to me there's

1:20:04

no reason why you can't go from 500

1:20:06

billion to five trillion to 50

1:20:10

trillion and I'm not even sure we can't

1:20:12

go to 250 trillion based upon the

1:20:15

current functionality I

1:20:17

see when if the base layer can't do

1:20:20

something then the question is can the

1:20:23

layer two do it if the layer two can't

1:20:25

do it if you wanted to achieve it you

1:20:28

would have to do it with layer

1:20:30

three you can make an

1:20:32

argument right you can make an argument

1:20:34

that if segwit and tap rot had never

1:20:37

happened yeah you wouldn't be doing this

1:20:39

stuff in the layer two protocols but

1:20:42

layer 3es you the money might have been

1:20:44

harder and maybe the layer 3es would

1:20:47

have would have come along and people

1:20:49

like Apple and Google would have

1:20:50

embraced Bitcoin or would be embracing

1:20:52

Bitcoin or some other company or bank

1:20:54

would Embrace Bitcoin and they would

1:20:56

just fill the Gap you know there's

1:20:59

there's tradeoffs everywhere um so but

1:21:03

having said that just to be clear I'm

1:21:05

not going to second guess

1:21:08

history I would say war is

1:21:11

Hell Bitcoin was a very

1:21:14

unlikely creation it was very unlikely

1:21:17

to survive you know so many other

1:21:19

versions didn't survive when it got to

1:21:21

the blocksize wars it was a bitter Civil

1:21:24

War and there were probably Mis you

1:21:27

know what what would be the word

1:21:31

misunderstood decisions made on both

1:21:34

sides and there were probably some poor

1:21:36

there there was very poor logic in lots

1:21:39

of places or maybe logic that would be

1:21:41

easy to criticize

1:21:43

today but I I do think bitcoin's better

1:21:47

you know we have Bitcoin is better for

1:21:50

segt it's better for tap rot they are

1:21:52

stable if they had blown the network up

1:21:55

right then then I wouldn't be saying

1:21:57

that we wouldn't be here but now once

1:22:00

you've achieved a

1:22:02

miracle like you've started a nuclear

1:22:04

furnace or you've started a star right

1:22:06

you've you've achieved a miracle once

1:22:08

you've achieved the miracle don't look

1:22:10

the gift horse in the mouth right don't

1:22:12

let the fire go out and I think you have

1:22:15

to shift your view from like from from

1:22:20

uh being aggressive I I think they they

1:22:23

you know when there's Bitcoin cash and

1:22:25

there was a lot of other Forks they

1:22:26

thought that you know the main chain

1:22:28

might die I mean they literally were

1:22:29

fighting for the survival of Bitcoin I

1:22:31

don't think we're surviving we're

1:22:33

fighting for the survival of Bitcoin

1:22:35

with the next cool idea that comes along

1:22:37

in the year

1:22:39

2024 I do think right

1:22:42

now I think it's very important right

1:22:44

now that we have a stable Network that

1:22:48

people can build upon and I think that

1:22:52

stability means it needs to be stable

1:22:54

economically and that

1:22:56

means you got to cap the number of

1:22:58

Bitcoin but you got to cap the

1:23:00

bandwidth right because otherwise it's

1:23:02

not stable economically remember we

1:23:04

talked about adiabatic laps or you know

1:23:07

a hole in in in the

1:23:10

fuselage if you don't cap the bandwidth

1:23:13

then there won't be a healthy

1:23:15

transaction fee market and if there

1:23:17

isn't a healthy transaction fee market

1:23:20

then you're eventually going to see your

1:23:22

all your miners go bankrupt and go to

1:23:26

zero and then you open up this Pandora's

1:23:28

box of discussing putting in an

1:23:31

inflation Supply to feed you know to

1:23:34

support the miners and that's an awful

1:23:36

place to be so it needs to be

1:23:39

economically sound to be successful it

1:23:41

needs to be technically sound and you're

1:23:44

a lot more likely to be technically

1:23:45

sound if you stop changing things right

1:23:47

I if you if you live long enough you

1:23:50

start you find that most software

1:23:53

becomes a rubbe Goldberg device there's

1:23:54

too much code and every piece of code's

1:23:56

got more bugs and eventually you're

1:23:58

carrying so much technical debt you

1:24:00

can't maintain it and so we don't we

1:24:03

don't want it to be one iota more

1:24:05

complicated it needs to be and then it

1:24:07

needs to be ethically sound okay and and

1:24:10

the root cause of all unethical behavior

1:24:13

is someone that thinks that they can po

1:24:16

work the political process or weaponize

1:24:18

the political process in order to

1:24:20

distort economics to their benefit so

1:24:23

for example you know who's winning if um

1:24:27

if we censor

1:24:30

inscriptions well I mean binance would

1:24:33

be winning binance wouldn't actually

1:24:35

have to in uh install lightning they

1:24:39

wouldn't have to implement lightning

1:24:40

coinbase doesn't have to implement

1:24:41

lightning if you just artificially keep

1:24:44

all the transactions that are not pure

1:24:46

monetary transactions off the network so

1:24:50

the exchanges that don't Embrace

1:24:51

lightning are winning lightning is

1:24:53

losing

1:24:55

uh companies that Implement good

1:24:58

lightning implementations good Channels

1:25:00

with good

1:25:02

functionality they're winning from this

1:25:04

inscription brewhaha they would be

1:25:07

losing if people were doing a lot more

1:25:10

transactions cheaper on the base layer

1:25:13

companies that want to launch layer two

1:25:16

layer especially layer three apps that

1:25:18

move Bitcoin at the speed of light on

1:25:21

the layer three they're losing if people

1:25:24

people are using the layer

1:25:26

one and of course but but but those are

1:25:29

all second order changes but you because

1:25:31

every everything you do it affects

1:25:33

there's a positive there's a negative

1:25:34

someone's winning someone's losing

1:25:36

people that don't uh that don't offer

1:25:39

lightning in

1:25:41

general are are going to suffer if the

1:25:45

transactions go up but let's talk about

1:25:49

miners miners are the line of First

1:25:51

Defense for Bitcoin and lot of people

1:25:54

don't understand just how profound and

1:25:57

important they are um one thing they do

1:26:00

is they throw up a 350 EX aash wall and

1:26:03

that's pure they're digital power

1:26:04

centers and you're going to want as much

1:26:06

digital power as possible and you want

1:26:08

to stay ahead of Google and Amazon and

1:26:10

the and the worldwide compute power if

1:26:12

you're going to stay secure so we need

1:26:14

them to spend billions and billions of

1:26:16

dollars a year on

1:26:18

that this I mean the second thing that

1:26:21

they're doing in addition to just def in

1:26:25

that uh I mean they're creating a

1:26:27

censorship resistant messaging Network

1:26:29

because if the miners are are spread all

1:26:32

around the world and they're that

1:26:33

powerful then you can't physically stop

1:26:36

the transaction so so that's really

1:26:39

important but the second thing they're

1:26:41

doing is the miners are the ones that

1:26:43

are going to actually be lobbying the

1:26:45

politicians to not Outlaw Bitcoin in

1:26:47

every country so when a country comes

1:26:50

along and you know and they attack

1:26:52

Bitcoin the first thing they attack is

1:26:53

the minor

1:26:55

and the miners suffer like in Sweden

1:26:57

when the when there's a massive tax on

1:26:59

electricity or if this White House

1:27:01

proposal comes comes to see any support

1:27:04

at all the miners are the first ones to

1:27:07

suffer the the miners will all go

1:27:09

bankrupt a

1:27:11

decade 10 to 30 years before the network

1:27:14

dies before Bitcoin dies but think of

1:27:18

the miners as your skin if i fay it off

1:27:21

you right you won't be immediately dead

1:27:24

but but death will follow and so you

1:27:27

need the miners to be healthy for for a

1:27:30

bunch of reasons they're they're your

1:27:31

political Defender they're your physical

1:27:34

thermodynamic defender or computational

1:27:37

Defender um they're also the financial

1:27:40

defender of the network because if you

1:27:42

look at one of the reasons why Bitcoin

1:27:44

is more secure and and more uh

1:27:47

successful than every other crypto it's

1:27:49

there's like 20 or more publicly traded

1:27:52

companies that are Bitcoin miners

1:27:55

so the the miners actually went and they

1:27:57

raised billions and billions of dollars

1:27:58

of capital and then they took themselves

1:28:01

public and you see the riots and the

1:28:03

marathons and the Hut eights of the

1:28:05

world and the irises of the world those

1:28:08

corporate operators are are then the

1:28:12

ambassadors of the Bitcoin Community to

1:28:15

Wall Street to the investment

1:28:18

Banks every one of those companies has

1:28:20

General

1:28:21

counsels they can all afford PR people

1:28:24

people they can afford lobbyists they

1:28:26

create jobs you know they're when when a

1:28:31

when a a crypto promoter or a Guerilla

1:28:35

marketer for a crypto proof of stake

1:28:37

Network when they actually funnel

1:28:40

millions of dollars to a politician kind

1:28:43

of like what Sam bankman free did when

1:28:44

he dumped the hundreds of millions of

1:28:46

dollars on the politicians when they

1:28:48

funnel the money and then they whisper

1:28:50

in their ear that Bitcoin is not

1:28:52

environmentally friendly and they should

1:28:56

banned it's going to be the Bitcoin

1:28:58

miners that are going to be on the front

1:29:00

line fighting that battle and they're

1:29:03

going to be fighting that battle against

1:29:04

everybody who comes up with a with a too

1:29:07

good to be true proof of stake yoyo coin

1:29:11

that is going to print the coin sell the

1:29:14

coin buy a bunch of politicians buy a

1:29:16

bunch of lawyers buy a bunch of

1:29:18

marketers and they're going to spread

1:29:20

all the the anti- Bitcoin fud

1:29:25

so if you don't have the minors you

1:29:28

don't have physical presence in the real

1:29:30

world and that

1:29:32

means you're spinning off in the

1:29:34

metaverse you become virtual only but

1:29:37

you also don't have political presence

1:29:39

you're you're losing your political

1:29:41

presence you're you're losing your

1:29:44

physical

1:29:45

presence you know

1:29:52

and that's you're and you're you're

1:29:52

losing your legal presence it's so

1:29:54

so the biggest problem with with either

1:29:59

changing the block size or censoring the

1:30:03

transactions is you're depriving the

1:30:06

miners of a revenue stream and Satoshi

1:30:11

gave us this block reward as a subsidy

1:30:13

to bootstrap to network but by the year

1:30:16

2035 it's 99% done you've got 1% in the

1:30:20

next 100 years and and of that 1% in the

1:30:23

next 100 years you've got 90% of that

1:30:25

coming in the next years or something

1:30:29

Kevin do you remember the um who's that

1:30:32

Australian comedian the G

1:30:34

debate um I know he mean by car memb

1:30:37

yeah and he talks about the security

1:30:38

guard Kevin who's paid minimum wage and

1:30:41

he's your security guard like if you

1:30:43

want the best security in the world you

1:30:44

want to pay your security guards you

1:30:46

know you got to have top level security

1:30:48

you know if you have security you want

1:30:50

top security anyone who's a bitcoiner

1:30:52

has to think about themselves who want

1:30:53

top security you're basically talking

1:30:55

about the security of the network the

1:30:57

first line of defense and then we've got

1:30:59

to ensure they're

1:31:01

paid yeah if we weaken them we weaken

1:31:04

Bitcoin and if you if you look at it

1:31:07

from an Austrian point of view you got a

1:31:08

city the city's got 10 square miles in

1:31:11

it you're the mayor are you going to

1:31:14

pass law after law telling people what

1:31:16

kind of things they can do on their land

1:31:18

in your city I don't I I don't like

1:31:22

bookstores I do like Li liaries I don't

1:31:24

like bakeries I do like restaurants but

1:31:27

not restaurants that serve cake but

1:31:29

restaurants that serve healthy food def

1:31:31

finded by me pretty soon you've got

1:31:34

you've got someone

1:31:35

dictating who can do what in the city

1:31:38

that's very

1:31:39

puritanical and it's Central planning

1:31:41

and the result is generally the city

1:31:42

fails like any intelligent person leaves

1:31:45

the city because there's an

1:31:46

authoritarian telling them what they can

1:31:48

and can't do in city limits and so

1:31:52

that's if you look at this in the

1:31:54

context of Bitcoin if you started

1:31:55

telling people who can own Bitcoin and

1:31:57

who's not allowed to own Bitcoin that's

1:31:59

first order censorship when you tell

1:32:01

people what kind of transactions they

1:32:03

can do on the network that's second

1:32:05

order

1:32:06

censorship when you start dictating

1:32:08

who's allowed to mine Bitcoin that's

1:32:10

third order

1:32:11

censorship and you know the austrians

1:32:14

would just say leave it all well enough

1:32:15

alone you're you're right you know

1:32:19

probably that person such and such sets

1:32:22

up a garbage business business selling

1:32:24

unhealthy food but then maybe they make

1:32:27

enough money to invest in a research you

1:32:30

know a research effort to discovers

1:32:33

penicillin you know like how do you who

1:32:36

are you to judge like where will the

1:32:38

money find itself and there's the

1:32:41

world's full of people entrepreneurs

1:32:43

that started a business they failed the

1:32:45

first time they changed it they it

1:32:46

became a second thing they Chang it

1:32:48

again and the third time around it's

1:32:49

actually pretty

1:32:50

useful and the only way you can invent

1:32:53

things is you got to have the freedom to

1:32:54

fail 99.9% of the mobile apps all fail

1:32:58

99% of all the ventures all fail I mean

1:33:01

businesses fail all the time that's why

1:33:05

like when we come to this issue of you

1:33:07

know ordinals inscriptions

1:33:09

nfts like I would never endorse any of

1:33:13

it right like I'm not going to endorse

1:33:14

an nft I'm not going to endorse a system

1:33:16

for creating nfts I'm not going to even

1:33:18

endorse the use case I'm just not going

1:33:21

to censor someone's ability to do it I'm

1:33:24

not going to tell them I'm not going to

1:33:25

deprive them of their freedom because

1:33:28

depriving of their them of their freedom

1:33:30

is is you know an ethical lapse I

1:33:33

believe it's it's a it's a problem but

1:33:41

also maybe someone will come up with

1:33:41

something to inscribe that will be

1:33:43

profoundly beneficial to the world and

1:33:46

how are we going to find out unless we

1:33:48

give people the freedom to do it let the

1:33:50

market decide yeah let let the market

1:33:53

decide I mean that's that's just

1:33:54

Austrian economics stop meddling if

1:33:57

we're all here in Bitcoin because we

1:33:59

believed yeah that politicians shouldn't

1:34:02

meddle and so I don't think we should

1:34:04

meddle in this I I I don't think you

1:34:09

can you can't uh you can't deprive

1:34:12

people the ability to experiment what

1:34:15

you can do is protect the

1:34:17

protocol I I I think by the way the

1:34:20

transactions are gonna get much more

1:34:21

expensive Peter like like like this this

1:34:24

entire debate it it misses the who cares

1:34:27

whether it's a dollar or $10 or $25 I

1:34:30

mean let's take the big picture look out

1:34:34

years if you're looking to save your

1:34:38

wealth if you had $10 million and you

1:34:39

had a choice to buy a $10 million

1:34:42

painting pedigree painting to buy a $10

1:34:45

million apartment in New

1:34:47

York or to buy $10 million of Bitcoin

1:34:51

what would you buy

1:34:53

most people would buy Bitcoin

1:34:55

right most bitcoiners would buy Bitcoin

1:34:58

most people on this podcast Bitcoin

1:35:00

Bitcoin as well I'm just saying it's

1:35:01

like the people outside haven't figured

1:35:03

that out yet yeah so it's a

1:35:06

million-dollar transaction fee to buy

1:35:08

art and it's $600,000 transaction fee to

1:35:11

buy the apartment not including taxes so

1:35:15

probably the transaction fee for both

1:35:17

both of those first two trades is a

1:35:19

million dollars it could be $2 million

1:35:21

for the art you're talking about a 10%

1:35:23

commiss

1:35:24

6% commission is basically the status

1:35:27

quo for all residential real estate in

1:35:29

the world and if you can get down to

1:35:31

five or four you're genius right so the

1:35:35

question is will people one day pay

1:35:37

$600,000 to buy a Bitcoin worth 10

1:35:40

million I think

1:35:41

yes would you of course you would if you

1:35:44

believed in Bitcoin and your choice was

1:35:47

you pay A500 $600,000 fee to buy a piece

1:35:51

of residential real estate that's got a

1:35:53

2 % annual property tax on it and it's

1:35:57

in a high rise and someone's going to

1:35:59

put another one up next to it or you

1:36:01

could buy the Bitcoin you would say okay

1:36:03

well I guess I'll just buy the Bitcoin

1:36:05

the transaction fee whether it's a

1:36:07

dollar $10 $100 $1,000 $10,000 $100,000

1:36:11

or a million

1:36:13

dollars that's just a matter of time and

1:36:17

so I I think if you look at all all ways

1:36:22

that people store value the all the

1:36:25

networks have transaction fees the

1:36:26

transaction fees are quite High the

1:36:29

transaction fees to own $10 million of

1:36:32

of an

1:36:33

ETF would be $900,000 over 10

1:36:42

years almost I mean 90 basis points for

1:36:42

a year for 10 years that's where you get

1:36:43

to so so high transaction fees are on a

1:36:48

final settlement are actually much

1:36:51

higher in everything else in the world

1:36:53

they they've just been obscenely low on

1:36:56

the Bitcoin Network and for someone that

1:36:58

wants to move

1:37:00

$25 then yeah you care whether it's $1

1:37:03

or $25 but the truth is even $1 is too

1:37:06

much to move

1:37:07

$25 you should be using something like

1:37:09

the lightning Network or you should be

1:37:11

using cash app and going cashtag to cash

1:37:14

tag or you should find some more

1:37:16

efficient way to do

1:37:17

it um we want the transaction fees to go

1:37:22

up because we want want this to ensure

1:37:25

the security of the

1:37:27

network but it is but but it's fair and

1:37:30

ethical because the truth is no one's

1:37:32

got a gun to their head and they're not

1:37:34

they're not forced to use Bitcoin to do

1:37:36

consumer transactions right everyone

1:37:38

that complains about it C could have

1:37:41

downloaded a lightning wallet anytime

1:37:44

they want right you can you have the

1:37:47

freedom to download any of 20 lightning

1:37:48

wallets and you can anytime you want

1:37:51

when the B when the Bitcoin network is

1:37:55

slow you can move some money into the

1:37:57

wallet you know put decide to you know

1:38:00

move your money from your savings

1:38:01

account to your checking account and um

1:38:05

and then once it's in the lightning

1:38:06

wallet you move it around in essence

1:38:08

friction free cheap and

1:38:12

so the all the all this does is just

1:38:15

catalyzes new applications on Layer Two

1:38:18

and layer three and that's healthy

1:38:20

because there's going there needs to be

1:38:24

um an explosion of those

1:38:26

applications and we need to have um we

1:38:32

need to have these Bitcoin miners are

1:38:34

like a network of fortresses you need a

1:38:37

network of Bitcoin miners everywhere in

1:38:39

the world because the minor in

1:38:41

kazakhstan's fighting for Bitcoin in

1:38:43

Kazakhstan yeah and the minor in China

1:38:45

is fighting for Bitcoin in China and the

1:38:47

minor in Europe is fighting for Bitcoin

1:38:50

in Europe or Sweden or Iceland or

1:38:51

Ireland right and I could go on at

1:38:55

infinitum when when ethereum went to the

1:38:58

merge they unilaterally

1:39:01

disarmed

1:39:03

deenergized but it's kind of like it's

1:39:06

kind of like scuttling your entire Navy

1:39:09

right or or or basically throwing away

1:39:12

your Air Force okay and it got cheaper

1:39:15

right they're like oh yeah it's so much

1:39:16

cheaper now we got rid of our army our

1:39:18

Navy and our Air Force it's so much

1:39:19

cheaper and so what are you going to do

1:39:21

with the dod budget well we're just

1:39:23

going to give it to

1:39:24

ourselves it's kind of yeah what they

1:39:27

did it's like we're just going to give

1:39:28

it to ourself and we're going to

1:39:31

eliminate the defense and the security

1:39:34

system of the network and it and the

1:39:37

problem is twofold right the first

1:39:38

problem is the ethical problem you

1:39:40

basically stole the property you stole

1:39:43

you stole somewhere in the range of 10

1:39:45

billion to 40 billion dollar worth of

1:39:48

property from bit from eth miners right

1:39:52

whatever the numbers a lot they just

1:39:53

stole it right and they just gave it

1:39:55

tosel and so there's an ethical problem

1:39:58

there and then there's a systemic

1:40:01

problem which is there's never going to

1:40:03

be an eth Miner that goes

1:40:06

public and if you knew enough about

1:40:08

Securities Law you would know that eth

1:40:10

validators are securities and and

1:40:13

they're unregistered Securities and

1:40:15

that's the entire debate that the SEC

1:40:18

has right now on staking and the like if

1:40:20

you create your own Staker your you've

1:40:22

created a financial services company

1:40:26

that's hyper complicated and there's no

1:40:30

there's no real precedent for it so I

1:40:35

don't I don't think it was wise for a

1:40:37

number of

1:40:38

reasons I think we're lucky right now I

1:40:41

would summarize we're lucky we're

1:40:43

through segwit we're through tap rout

1:40:47

right it was a war bad things were done

1:40:50

by everybody in the war some stuff do

1:40:55

regret now we're here the issue is do

1:40:59

you have to do it again right have we

1:41:02

grown up and I think the Bitcoin at this

1:41:04

point has grown up and now you just let

1:41:07

these people launch all these these

1:41:08

things right you know if it wasn't for

1:41:11

inscriptions I wouldn't have told my own

1:41:15

executive team I want you to focus on

1:41:18

developing Enterprise security

1:41:20

applications that leverage the Bitcoin

1:41:22

blockchain based

1:41:23

layer right so I'm diverting corporate

1:41:28

uh development effort and money and

1:41:30

energy to create M multiactor

1:41:33

authentication and multi- signature

1:41:36

capabilities and maybe maybe we'll

1:41:38

inscribe contracts maybe we'll in we'll

1:41:41

hash some of our documents maybe we'll

1:41:44

create some other security update that

1:41:46

we can use and give that to millions or

1:41:51

hundreds of millions of corporate

1:41:52

accounts

1:41:54

but you know I had the idea from you

1:41:57

know it's like they're doing it I I

1:41:59

don't really care for a monkey jpeg I'm

1:42:01

not going to burn that but you know what

1:42:04

is something valuable I might burn and

1:42:06

the example I gave it's like my will

1:42:09

when I burn my will and if I if I don't

1:42:12

want to burn my entire I could burn my

1:42:13

entire will or I could just hash

1:42:15

it I could burn that I could I could

1:42:18

basically inscribe the hash key of my

1:42:20

will store it away because you know

1:42:22

right right what right now my will is

1:42:24

sitting somewhere on

1:42:27

paper and anybody with an iPhone could

1:42:30

just go and photograph the thing change

1:42:32

a few words right yeah we should do that

1:42:34

man counterfeit it yeah well no oh

1:42:37

change change change Michaels

1:42:41

uh just a just to change track what what

1:42:44

has this last two years been like for

1:42:46

you oh even or even a different question

1:42:49

to add into that is that um people say

1:42:53

Bitcoin changes them like has it changed

1:42:56

do you think you've changed during this

1:42:57

two years has it had a profound impact I

1:42:59

mean look there's been lots of ups and

1:43:01

downs well big ups and downs for you

1:43:05

it's I think I think

1:43:16

um it's made me even more focused yeah

1:43:16

like stress uh stress like uh volatility

1:43:21

you know impacts different people

1:43:23

differently you know some people that

1:43:25

were part of the Bitcoin Community you

1:43:27

know when it was going really well you

1:43:31

know and when we entered that bare

1:43:33

Market they kind of distanced

1:43:35

themsel and and the impact of that on

1:43:39

them was they should

1:43:41

diversify right so some people's lesson

1:43:43

they take away from it is I got to

1:43:45

diversify or distance myself the lesson

1:43:48

I took away from this is this is not

1:43:51

going to be easy we're going to have to

1:43:53

redouble our efforts and focus even

1:43:55

harder you thought you could do this and

1:43:58

maybe do one one more thing or two more

1:44:00

things and you realize no you just need

1:44:03

to keep focused keep laser like on this

1:44:07

thing this is

1:44:09

um this is uh going to be an intense

1:44:12

struggle what's the biggest part of the

1:44:14

struggle is it the eyeballs on you or

1:44:17

the criticism or is it just managing the

1:44:20

the up and downs of the the value

1:44:23

I think probably

1:44:26

um the most challenging thing for me in

1:44:29

my current condition or position is is

1:44:34

uh just

1:44:43

managing the uh mood of the rest of the

1:44:43

market like all the media the investors

1:44:47

right like it's if you've in invest

1:44:49

enough time like you have and you have

1:44:53

in Bitcoin then the price fluctuations

1:44:57

or you know or the routine fud doesn't

1:45:00

really affect your world viiew right

1:45:03

yeah but if you haven't spent that much

1:45:07

time and Bitcoin trades down $5,000 and

1:45:09

someone contemporaneously releases some

1:45:11

fud oh oh the US government's going to

1:45:13

sell some Bitcoin you know I would think

1:45:15

well it doesn't matter one way or the

1:45:17

other if it's true or not true you know

1:45:19

and and it's irrelevant but but the

1:45:22

volatility the the volatility creates a

1:45:25

news event and when the price is going

1:45:29

up people have to come up with a

1:45:32

narrative explanation for why it's going

1:45:34

up and so that's good there'll be just a

1:45:36

hundred really good stories when the

1:45:38

price going up and when price is going

1:45:40

down there will be a hundred bad stories

1:45:42

or negative stories that have to be

1:45:45

invented you have to come up with

1:45:47

there's something I am deep in human

1:45:50

consciousness that drives people to want

1:45:52

to explain

1:45:54

reason for it has to be a reason so

1:45:57

there'll be all this all this negativity

1:46:00

and then someone's gonna say okay I

1:46:02

heard about this is this good for

1:46:03

Bitcoin what what happens next are we

1:46:05

okay are we okay so I have to I just

1:46:08

have to communicate a lot if if Bitcoin

1:46:11

was just plus 20% a year actually

1:46:14

Bitcoin has been here's the irony Peter

1:46:17

since we actually got in uh to the bit

1:46:19

Bitcoin um investment bit coin is the

1:46:23

best performing asset in the world by

1:46:25

far it's up 140% or more it's more than

1:46:30

10x NASDAQ it's more than 6X or

1:46:32

something S&P it's 100x gold it's it's

1:46:37

destroying

1:46:38

everything you can look back and see

1:46:41

this it's kind of clocking up about 40

1:46:43

to 50% a year steadily so you wouldn't

1:46:47

think that would be a problem but it is

1:46:49

it is emotionally torturous for

1:46:54

investors that uh that aren't really

1:46:59

um extremely well educated bitcoiners to

1:47:03

handle that

1:47:04

volatility so you have to continually

1:47:06

explain it we have to we explain it to

1:47:08

the media we have to explain it uh and

1:47:11

and talk to public investors we have to

1:47:14

we have to always you deal with the

1:47:16

Twitter trolls right people that that

1:47:19

want to come up with some negative

1:47:21

cynical interpret

1:47:23

in order to drive engagement well they

1:47:26

want you to fail they want it to have

1:47:28

been wrong there were people who want

1:47:31

that yeah it seems we have that yeah

1:47:34

yeah we have

1:47:36

that but the thing is it yeah another

1:47:40

cycle you know you can be very right and

1:47:42

it's a whole different ball game for you

1:47:45

then um but I think even even yourself

1:47:50

when Bitcoin started to hit about 15

1:47:52

16,000 it must have been like [ __ ] we

1:47:54

were here now we're here yeah writing it

1:47:57

from 66,000 to 15,000 is is a little

1:48:00

painful especially lever especially with

1:48:03

the silvergate loan yeah I mean look

1:48:06

we're on the same ride here there's just

1:48:07

a lot more zeros on that but like but

1:48:09

I'm really curious about that silvergate

1:48:11

loan because um can you explain like how

1:48:15

that deal was structured when it took

1:48:16

place and how you actually ended up sort

1:48:18

of closing it because with I don't

1:48:19

understand how that worked with them

1:48:20

having to basically close down the bank

1:48:24

yeah well we went entered into the

1:48:27

loan before Tera Luna melted out so so

1:48:32

if you recall what the state of Bitcoin

1:48:35

was in the crypto economy before teruna

1:48:38

before three eras before every single

1:48:41

bankruptcy life was good I mean

1:48:44

generally you know it was halfway to the

1:48:48

Moon Yeah and everybody was everybody

1:48:51

was in massive investment mode and I

1:48:53

guess crypto VC was all-time high and

1:48:56

signature and silvergate had massive

1:48:58

expansion plans

1:48:59

Etc you know and I I had like 10

1:49:02

companies offering me loans against

1:49:05

Bitcoin and we had you know quite a lot

1:49:09

I don't know I guess I guess we had

1:49:11

something like $4 billion dollar of

1:49:14

uncollateralized of just free collateral

1:49:16

so $4 billion of assets so at that point

1:49:19

we were borrowing $200 million with $4

1:49:22

billion

1:49:23

so it's like a loan to value 5% yeah so

1:49:26

so it's it seemed fairly reasonable at

1:49:29

that time I think Bitcoin was in the mid

1:49:31

40s or in that range 4550 yeah and then

1:49:36

um and then what just happened was a

1:49:38

succession of meltdowns

1:49:40

right you know and and they started with

1:49:43

teral Luna and then it's like massive

1:49:45

deleveraging and it turned out that

1:49:46

everybody was basically cross trading

1:49:49

with everybody right I mean Alam and

1:49:51

three Aras and Genesis and FTX and the

1:49:55

entire thing just started to collapse

1:49:58

but it didn't come all at once right it

1:49:59

came in about five succession plot to so

1:50:03

five brutal beatdowns one two three four

1:50:07

five and when we got to um when we got

1:50:10

to New Year's Eve of this year right

1:50:13

that's you know fees on the base chain

1:50:15

were sometime one two vat you know they

1:50:19

were like there were there were blocks

1:50:20

with $300 transaction fees in the entire

1:50:24

block right and um I think Bitcoin was

1:50:29

16,500 around New Year's Eve

1:50:32

so at that point

1:50:41

um all all of the Wildcat crypto Banks

1:50:41

had all been wiped out right but they

1:50:42

you know they were just all playing fast

1:50:44

and loose right taking hundreds of

1:50:46

millions of dollars of your you know

1:50:48

depositors money and then loaning it to

1:50:50

another hedge fund that would then put

1:50:52

it into you know anchor protocol with us

1:50:55

or something and like they were there

1:50:58

were like seven layers of risk

1:51:01

rehypothecation there and so they got

1:51:03

wiped out but uh you know signature and

1:51:06

silvergate were still around and and we

1:51:08

didn't really have the banking crisis

1:51:10

outside the you know the crypto

1:51:13

ecosystem you know

1:51:16

but so and by the way that that entire

1:51:19

thing right that was catalyzed by the

1:51:21

FED right the FED took interest rates

1:51:22

from zero basis points to 500 basis

1:51:25

points in 12 months so that's the

1:51:27

steepest incline in the risk-free

1:51:29

overnight rate that we've seen in our

1:51:32

lifetimes so they kind of crushed a

1:51:34

bunch of stuff and the first the crypto

1:51:36

ecosystem smashed first with uh with

1:51:40

silvergate what happened really was Ju

1:51:43

Just like with all the other fractional

1:51:44

Reserve Banks they're sitting on longdd

1:51:47

treasuries or long dat or midd fixed

1:51:51

income instruments and anything that you

1:51:53

bought any bond fixed income bond you

1:51:55

bought with a duration of 7 to 30 years

1:51:59

when short-term rates were zero all

1:52:02

those things are yielding one and a half

1:52:03

two two and a half three% interest so so

1:52:10

they looked better than nothing but when

1:52:13

overnight rates are 500 basis points

1:52:16

risk free and you're sitting stuck with

1:52:19

credit risk and you're stuck with

1:52:20

interest rate risk for 10 15 15 years

1:52:23

they all trade down I think that the

1:52:25

entire Bond portfolio the bond index b n

1:52:28

traded down 18% from August of 2020 uh

1:52:33

to like last week so all the bonds

1:52:36

traded down and so if you look at the

1:52:38

the bonds for the banks they're all

1:52:39

trading down 10 15% so all technically

1:52:41

insolvent because if you're a fractional

1:52:44

Reserve with a 10 to1 ratio and your

1:52:46

bonds trade down 10% right you've wiped

1:52:50

you've wiped out everything so that

1:52:52

that's that's an oops courtesy of

1:52:55

Central Banking Regulators right like

1:52:58

what you know how how's that not going

1:53:01

to happen um so silvergate I think you

1:53:06

know suffered

1:53:11

two two unfortunate incidences or two

1:53:14

situations one they had a lot of money

1:53:17

invested in in midd uh fixed income

1:53:21

instruments that traded down that's the

1:53:24

first but that didn't kill them I think

1:53:26

what killed them is is their credit

1:53:29

line uh with with um the federal home

1:53:34

Association was was not

1:53:37

renewed so so they got a margin call

1:53:40

from the government and I I think you

1:53:44

know the the crypto-friendly banks have

1:53:47

not been treated as

1:53:50

generously as other Diversified plain

1:53:53

vanilla Banks right so we saw with

1:53:56

signature a similar situation so having

1:53:59

said all that I think silvergate was

1:54:01

really well-run bank is a well-run bank

1:54:03

and the fact that they didn't actually

1:54:05

default they didn't go in solvent they

1:54:08

weren't put into receivership and they

1:54:10

didn't uh they didn't lose their

1:54:12

depositor money right and so every you

1:54:15

know all these other Banks they all

1:54:18

actually had to be bailed out silvergate

1:54:21

didn't get a bail out the problem was

1:54:22

silvergate is they just didn't have the

1:54:24

capital so they had to wind down the

1:54:26

business I like Allen as well I think

1:54:28

Allen's a great guy Allan stand up yeah

1:54:31

he's he's done an extraordinary job yeah

1:54:33

like he he's actually I think if you're

1:54:37

looking for a role model like for how to

1:54:40

be a banker he he is a role model have

1:54:43

you met ironic he's great I really like

1:54:45

I've been down to that in San Diego a

1:54:46

couple of times just top guy yeah so I I

1:54:49

feel badly about that but they needed to

1:54:53

basically sell off all their assets and

1:54:55

they need to do it in a hurry so we had

1:54:58

a three-year loan so our loan was not

1:55:00

due until until I guess March of

1:55:10

2025 so we would prefer not to pay it

1:55:11

off obviously we would like to keep it

1:55:12

because I expect that Bitcoin will be

1:55:14

trading it double or triple by then so

1:55:18

from our point of view paying it off

1:55:20

early wasn't ideal that's why it was a

1:55:21

three-year loan but you know the the

1:55:24

business decision I mean they were

1:55:26

selling silvergate was selling their

1:55:28

assets at a discount like they basically

1:55:31

liquidating them uh before they're due

1:55:34

and taking a a haircut to do it so in

1:55:37

this case the business decision

1:55:40

was do we hold out and that might very

1:55:45

well contribute to silvergate being in

1:55:48

receiver ship and not being able to wind

1:55:49

down their BS so that's not really good

1:55:51

for them right we could be recal but

1:55:54

then who's going to take over the bank

1:55:55

and then what's that situation going to

1:55:57

be or do we try to pay it off early and

1:56:01

uh so I mean the accommodation was we

1:56:03

paid it off early not ideal for us but

1:56:05

we got a 22% discount against the the

1:56:09

fixed loan and the loan was you know the

1:56:13

world turned upside down the loan was so

1:56:14

for plus

1:56:15

30 70 basis points or something so that

1:56:19

was a

1:56:20

3.75% loan a year

1:56:22

go but then Sofer went to 500 basis

1:56:26

points so it went from being a 3% loan

1:56:28

to being an 8 and a half per interest

1:56:31

rate in 12 months so the rest of our

1:56:34

debt is one and a half% interest so this

1:56:38

became the most expensive piece of debt

1:56:40

we had and it was actually onethird of

1:56:41

our interest payments a year we're you

1:56:44

know we've we've got a really nice situ

1:56:47

like one and a half% interest on $2.2

1:56:50

billion of debt we're paying $30 million

1:56:52

a year of interest on everything else

1:56:54

but we were looking at paying $15

1:56:56

million or $16 million a year of

1:56:58

interest just on this one

1:57:00

stub so from our point of view we

1:57:03

thought it's expensive debt it's

1:57:04

floating who knows where silver is going

1:57:07

it's it was it's also it didn't start

1:57:10

out being a problem but it was it was

1:57:12

the least popular piece of debt we had

1:57:14

you remember the entire yeah micro

1:57:16

strategy liquidation yeah you know

1:57:19

Twitter party where everyone was just

1:57:21

GLE Yul you know having a liquidation

1:57:25

they're hoping that was it 3K the number

1:57:27

well first they were like we think

1:57:28

they'll get liquidated to 20,000 like no

1:57:31

it's less and eventually eventually I

1:57:33

had to put out a tweet saying look I

1:57:35

mean when Bitcoin goes to

1:57:37

3,500 we've still got the Bitcoin and if

1:57:39

it goes below that we'll figure out

1:57:41

something else right yeah um but you

1:57:44

know the Twitter people are just very

1:57:45

unhappy that we weren't getting

1:57:46

liquidated at least the trolls twit

1:57:48

trolls they very they all got liquidated

1:57:50

so they weren't us this not fair they're

1:57:53

like the Bull Run can't start till

1:57:55

sailor gets liquidated yeah so it was it

1:57:58

turned out having that debt that was

1:58:00

marked that was against collateral Mark

1:58:02

to Market was politically you know a

1:58:05

public relations liability for us right

1:58:09

and and uh it was just one if you're a

1:58:13

public company you know it's just one

1:58:15

complication we didn't need so for us to

1:58:20

basically pay off the loan we kind of

1:58:22

got a triple benefit we we got rid of a

1:58:25

a third of our interest payments a year

1:58:28

and we blew away an obscenely expensive

1:58:31

loan we you know if you if you calculate

1:58:33

the irr on that if you're basically

1:58:37

buying out the loan at a 22% discount

1:58:40

you know you're avoiding $50 million of

1:58:42

principal payments and you're avoiding

1:58:44

another $35 million of Interest payment

1:58:46

so you're avoiding $85 million on $200

1:58:49

million so you you know it's it's like a

1:58:53

30% irr or something trade yeah so it's

1:58:57

it's it's a no-brainer yeah that you

1:59:00

would want to do that if you had that

1:59:02

option uh so it was uh we took out

1:59:06

expensive debt we kind of simplified the

1:59:10

balance sheet we we uh freed up we we

1:59:14

had a I mean nearly a billion dollars of

1:59:16

Bitcoin posted as collateral against to

1:59:18

at one point so you're freeing up a

1:59:20

billion dollars of collateral you know

1:59:22

paying off a loan getting rid of the

1:59:24

interest and now you're simplifying the

1:59:26

capital structure and now the the next

1:59:29

piece of debt coming due is December of

1:59:32

2025 and it's got It's convertible to

1:59:35

equity okay at like an a 390 strike or

1:59:39

something like that so so uh a much less

1:59:44

let's say sometimes in public

1:59:46

companies you don't want your trolls to

1:59:50

be able to generate at or spin a

1:59:53

negative hypothetical yeah right like if

1:59:57

you don't to Spook people yeah the short

2:00:00

sellers if they can come up with a

2:00:02

scenario under Rich under which things

2:00:06

get scary then they are incentivized to

2:00:09

Market that scenario so by taking uh by

2:00:12

paying this loan off it was it was a

2:00:14

benefit to silvergate because they're

2:00:16

basically unwinding you know winding

2:00:18

down the company right so they have to

2:00:20

get the loan off their books and it's a

2:00:22

benefit to us because we clean up our

2:00:24

balance sheet and it was

2:00:27

economically you know

2:00:29

economically a a win for the

2:00:31

shareholders amazing well listen I know

2:00:34

we taking up a lot of your time we could

2:00:35

have gone for hours and hours and hours

2:00:37

more um this is brilliant uh thank you

2:00:41

so much for coming in it's totally

2:00:43

different interview I didn't even look

2:00:44

at this I told you that uh thank you for

2:00:47

uh sharing your wisdom with my boy there

2:00:49

and uh we're going to see you a few

2:00:50

times this week anyway h

2:00:52

looking forward to it thanks for having

2:00:54

me as always as always and I I should

2:00:58

say for the record I'm a big fan I

2:01:00

listen to a lot of your podcasts and and

2:01:03

like a lot of times I'll scoop through

2:01:05

and I say you know which of the Peter

2:01:07

McCormack interviews this week do I want

2:01:09

to listen into and uh I I gotta say it's

2:01:14

exhausting for me to scroll through all

2:01:16

your interviews to try to figure out

2:01:18

which ones to listen to so I'm very

2:01:20

impressed with your work ethic like

2:01:22

you've created a lot a lot of really

2:01:24

high quality educational content it

2:01:27

takes a lot of energy so I don't know

2:01:29

where you guys get it but I think it's a

2:01:31

great asset to the community thank you

2:01:33

was a big I mean six of us work on it

2:01:34

now so did you watch the film have you

2:01:37

watched the mining film that's worth

2:01:39

watch it's on my tray things I'm working

2:01:42

through that right now and do you know

2:01:43

what these are behind me tell me you

2:01:45

know I bought a football team oh yeah

2:01:47

yeah there there are trophies this

2:01:49

season we won the double I think I had

2:01:52

maybe I'd heard that yeah listen thank

2:01:54

you so much you know we'll be pesing you

2:01:56

again in a few months to talk to you

2:01:57

again but thank you and just keep doing

2:01:58

your thing um really really love this

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