Bitcoin: The First Digital Monetary Energy Network | The Saylor Series | Episode 4 (WiM004)
WiM Media · 2020-12-21 · 1h 47m · View on YouTube →
technologies that are dominating today.
They're dominating because they're able
to
deliver force
faster, harder, stronger, smarter.
So if we ask the question, what is
money? Money is the highest form of
energy that human beings can channel.
Bitcoin is channeling human ingenuity
into making it better
and and every commodity is channeling
human energy into making it worse. The
lowbrow or or the the the historic
colloquial term is hodal, right? Hold on
for dear life or just hold or save
whatever. And the highbrow term would be
adopt as a treasury reserve essay.
[Music]
Hey guys, so as you learned uh by
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then start dollar cost averaging towards
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you can also complement this by buying
Bitcoin price dips to further increase
that position and reduce your cost
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Hey guys, welcome back to episode four
of the What is Money Show. Uh, we're
coming back today with part four of the
sailor series.
Um, and this is the first part of day
two. So, Sailor and I spent two days
recording. Uh, we did about 10 and a
half hours in total. So, episode 4
represents the first episode in day two.
And, uh, if you haven't seen episodes
one through three yet, I highly
recommend you go and check those out.
Uh, we built a lot of foundational
material there that, um, just gets
referenced back to going forward. So, I
think it's really important. In episodes
one through three, we covered the stone
ages, the iron ages. We went into the
dark ages, how we came forward into the
steel and the industrial age. And now
today, we're getting into the good
stuff, Bitcoin theory, the digital age,
um how money and economics is changing
once again, uh based on the these new
and radical innovations we see in the
world today. So today we're going to
learn about how Bitcoin is the first
true digital monetary system in world
history. Um we're also going to hear
Sailor's question, I'm sorry, Sailor's
answer to that allimp important
question, what is money? And he has a
really really good answer I think you're
going to dig. And uh we're going to get
into a bit of the economic principles
underlying commodities and their uses
money and why commodities make a really
bad form of money. actually um Sailor
lays out a really good case for for
commodity money being kind of a
self-defeating endeavor. And then
finally, um we're going to start looking
at Bitcoin
as the ultimate means of wealth
settlement and preservation.
Um it's as Sailor refers to it as the
first
closed loop or closed source energy
system we've ever had. Um, so I don't
want to spoil anything. This episode's
really good. Um, for me, this is when a
lot of the light bulbs started to go off
and started to have a lot of those
little mini epiphies during our
conversation, which you might see me uh
having as we engage. So, I hope you like
this. Um, it's a really good episode and
uh, see you again soon.
Hey everyone, welcome back to the What
is Money Show. I'm your host, Robert
Breedlove, and I'm sitting down today
with Michael Sailor as we dive into part
two of uh this deep conversation
involving history, technology,
commerce, economics, money. Um really
covering a a a broad broad spectrum of
topics today. And um today's the good
day because we're getting into the good
stuff with Bitcoin theory uh as the
first digital monetary system. Michael,
welcome back.
Thank you for having me, Robert.
I'm excited about this. So, we're going
to talk about Bitcoin theory.
Bitcoin theory. It's a a field you
wouldn't have thought you would have
heard about even five years ago.
Well, um, you know,
when I think of Bitcoin, I think this is
the first digital monetary system in the
history of the world. Perhaps the first
per we've tried others, they just didn't
work. This is the first one that's
perfected that's functioning. It's the
first one to to cross a hundred billion
dollars in market cap. And now it's
about 200 billion in market cap. $200
billion means $200 billion of monetary
energy.
And if I look at all of the other great
digital networks, Apple, Google,
Facebook, when they cross a hundred
billion dollars of monetary energy, then
that's a legitimizing step. Generally,
when they get there,
95% or more of the investment community
doesn't believe in them. sometimes 99%
doesn't believe in them, but they're too
big to fail. They're they're fires that
have been unleashed into the society and
they're burning
and the the effect is exothermal. It's
it's it's what we have in each of these
networks is we have the collapse, a
dematerialization of some product or
service or virtue or some ineffable
quality, be it friendship or mobile
devices or information. It's collapsing
into a lower energy state.
And as it collapses into a lower energy
state, hu huge amounts of energy in the
form of profit, cash flow, and value get
given off. Apple can ship a a better a
better camera to a billion people
overnight for a nickel.
Facebook can improve the way that you
communicate to your loved ones
overnight for a nickel. And Google can
package the library of Alexandria in the
palm of your hand and ship it to a
billion people overnight for a nickel.
And when when you have these massive
dematerializations of value and they get
on a network with a network
effect, it's almost like what where you
see a crystallizing structure where
you've got an amorphous substance and as
it crystallizes we go from steam to
water to ice collapses gives off energy.
And what what Bitcoin is is it's that
first digital monetary network, digital
monetary system. It's collapsing into a
a much more efficient form. It's giving
off energy. And um that just brings us
back to this entire subject of how
important is energy to the human race.
Okay,
let me ask you, sorry, let me ask a
question there. There's a chart with fa
phase transitions of say water of going
from ice to water to steam as its
temperature increases and it shows
increases in temperature and then when
it actually goes into the phase
transition it flat lines. So it's like
all that energy is being reallocated to
I guess changing the the molecular
structure for the next state. Then the
the temperature starts to increase again
as it goes into water and it flat lines
again before it goes into steam. So I
guess what you're getting at is that
energy becomes transmuted into the next
state before it can start to give off
energy in the form of profit,
productivity. It's it's giving back
economic substance, I guess, to its
users. Um I think that's sort of the
analogy you're drawing there. It's yeah,
it's a it's a wild thing when when all
the monetary energy
leaps from gold to Bitcoin or when it
leaps from fiat to Bitcoin, there's this
phase transition and uh
and um we see it uh throughout all all
areas of science, but right now this is
this is uh just the first time in human
that we see uh this creation of a pure
digital
monetary network and I I want to replace
monetary network with energy network
because
monetary uh energy is energy and money
is energy. In fact, money is the highest
form of energy. So if we ask the
question what is money? Money is the
highest form of energy that human beings
can channel.
So if I look back through time, human
beings as a species prosper by
channeling energy. And when we mastered
fire, we channeled chemical energy. And
when we mastered missiles, we channel
kinetic energy. And when we master water
and hydraulics, we're actually
channeling gravitational energy. The
idea of an aqueduct is, well, I'm using
gravity to move water 70 miles or I'm
running a water wheel or I'm floating a
two-tonon
block in the water and the gravity's
pushing down on the water and the water
is pushing up. And when I dam a stream
and I generate hydro energy, well,
that's that's gravity being converted
energy. But if I damn the stream to
divert a bunch of fish into my pond, I'm
still using gravity. Now, I I can
channel gravity by dumping a bunch of
rocks on your head, but it's not nearly
so easy to create a river of rocks as it
is to actually just tap into a river of
water. And uh and so the mastery of fire
and water is the mastery of of chemical
energy, gravitational energy, eventually
thermal in energy. And that in the
modern era morphed into the the mastery
of electrical energy and atomic energy.
And of course, of course, there's
conservation of energy. And when we look
at all of these energy networks, look, I
mean, look, a hundred guys with bows and
arrows are an energy network, right? I'm
I'm moving kinetic energy from this side
of the battlefield to that side of the
battlefield. and and um a civilization
at the mouth of a river with cities up
and down the river, right? Is sitting on
a energy network, right? Just like the
Aian and the Greek civilization was
sitting at the middle of an energy
network and they were using
gravitational energy to to uh you know
and by wind energy, right? Another form
of energy with between sales and
gravity,
you know, I I'm taking advantage of
these energies. So the theme is humans
prosper by channeling energy.
Yeah.
What's the most efficient
energy network in the history of the
world? Well, it's about to be Bitcoin.
Um because the challenge of humans
humanity is how do I store energy and
transmit energy across time and space
and domain? And by domain I mean perhaps
governmental domain like how do I move
my energy from New York to Tokyo. And
this becomes an interesting question
right let's say let's take a typical
power grid. Well I generate uh power I
channel chemical energy into electrical
energy. I lose like 35% of the energy in
the coal or in the fossil fuel. When it
gets onto the grid, I move it over a
high voltage line and it and I can move
it up to about 500 miles and I lose 2%
of the energy.
Now, it has to go has to get stepped
down to 240 volts or lower voltage even
to get into your house. I lose as as the
voltage steps down, I lose more energy.
It's about a 4% loss.
I could if I had pure energy at the
power plant, I'm gonna lose 6% of the
energy to put it into your house 250
miles away. I can't send it 2,000 miles
away. I just can't. I can't send it
10,000 miles away. Energy will not move
from New York to Tokyo. But I can do New
York to Skenactity. Now, when it gets
into your house, you have to use it
immediately. You can't store it. So,
let's say I wanted to store it. I need a
battery. Well, they the absence of a
battery prevents a mechanism.
Uh the mobile wave is a function of
lithium ion batteries in the palm of
your hand. No, no lithium-ion battery,
no smartphone. Now, we're we're working
with modern batteries. You know, Tesla,
all it's all about the battery, right?
And uh and Elon Musk has really driven
battery technology. So, let's say I put
a battery in your house and you pull
energy into your house. Well, you've
lost 6%.
Now, a typical battery, a good one, is
going to lose 2% per month.
Okay, that means you're going to lose
24% of your energy a year. Well, what
does that sound like? It sounds like 24%
inflation a year. It sounds, you know,
it sounds like hyperinflation.
It could get worse, right?
Hyperinflation is 100% inflation year.
Let's say that I have a battery which
loses 20% of my power a year. Well, my
halflife on my energy that I pulled off
the plant is three and a half years in
10 years, right? I'm up to 12 and a
half% of my energy.
So, the entire civilization is based
upon electric power grids and networks.
And yet, it's not that good. I mean, you
really can't store that much power.
Anybody that ever put their computer,
they charged it and left the computer
for a month or two months and you
whipped it open. It's like it's drained.
It's dead. Yeah.
Okay. So, now
let's say I want to take a hundred
million. By the way, I can take a
hundred million dollars of money and I
can buy a hundred million dollars of
electricity in New York
and I can distribute it to 10 million
people in New York
as long as they use it today.
But it, you know, so so if they don't
use it today, it starts to bleed out and
we're and so this is this is uh the loss
on the network. No.
And in a monetary sense, we would say
that energy really lacks durability,
right? And I think this is important to
you to tie this back to money is that
gold itself, to your point, was an
energy network, right? It was whatever
productivity couldn't be allocated
towards something more economic, we
would go and mine gold such that gold
became this claim on savings of
humanity, which is what money is. And
those savings themselves are the result
of all our collective energy utilization
up until that point, right? We've been
trans transitioning energy into capital
and then gold or money becomes the
network that commands that capital and
then I what I think is interesting too
is that the scarcity of the gold
actually reflects the scarcity of the
energy right so it maps onto it in a way
a brilliant insight and now let's play a
thought experiment let's take our
hundred million dollars worth of
monetary energy
and let's put it in a a power network
and then that runs on copper and then
let's put it into a gold network. If I
put it into a copper energy network,
I have uh 20 24% bleed rate per year by
the time it gets to the
battery I lose 6% and I can't get it
more than 500 miles. Okay, that so that
it's a very shortterm short duration
here and now energy network. Let's put
it into a gold network. I put a $100
million into gold. Now I can move that
hund00 million of gold a 100 miles.
Would I lose 6%. No, probably not. 6%,
right? I I could probably lose a hund
move a hundred million dollars of gold a
100 miles for 10,000 to $100,000
depending upon how much security I need.
So we're talking about 10 basis points
instead of 600 basis points of loss. 10
base. So goal is a more efficient way to
move large amounts of energy
short periods of time or short
distances. What if I want to move a
hund00 million worth of gold at 10,000
miles?
Well, that's about 3,000 pounds of gold
at one and a half tons. So, I put it on
a Global Express. Cost $10,000 an hour.
I put some dudes with guns on it. I fly
16 18 hours around the world. That's
about $180,000
plus another 70,000.
250,000.
If I have to fly the plane back, let's
just assume I don't. It's 250,000.
So now now we're up to like 25 basis
points.25%
is the cost to move it around the world
once.
Okay. So So that's okay. Now, what if I
wanna deliver
a hundred million dollars of gold a
hundred years into the future? By the
way, what if I want to deliver a hundred
million dollars of of energy a 100 years
into the future on um copper and
batteries? Well, my halflife is at 24%
at 2% bleed a month, right? My halfife
is three and a half years. It's gone
completely. And everybody with any
common sense knows if you put your
laptop charged in your attic for a
hundred years, it will not be charged in
a 100 years, right? You cannot store
electricity on a copper network or a
lithium ion battery, it's no good. I put
it in gold,
put it in a vault.
Okay, so let's say I put it in a vault
in JP Morgan and I put in a vault in JP
Morgan in 1900 in the United States of
America. And the United States is the
most successful country in the 21st 20th
century. We win every war and JP Morgan
remains as a bank and the vault is and
New York remains.
In that case, assuming a 2% mining rate,
assuming a stock to flow of 50 and
miners mine 2% more gold a year, the
halflife of a gold battery is 35 years.
I go from 100 million to 50 million in
35 years to 25 million in 70 years to
about 12 and a half million in a hundred
years. So I've I've depleted my gold
battery 87% if the United States wins
every war,
right?
And if JP Morgan is in a corrupt
institution and doesn't fail and if no
one drops a nuclear bomb on New York
City,
right?
things don't happen then I will get 12%
of my money back.
So in addition to betting on gold right
which is governed by natural law you're
also assuming this counterparty risk in
the form of the US government in the
form of JP Morgan. You have to bet on
these on stability in the geopolitical
landscape
as well right because the go gold has to
be secured and it has to be secured by
institutions. What what what if you put
a hundred million dollars worth of gold
into a bank in Frankfurt in 1900?
What if you put it in in the largest
bank in Japan in Tokyo in 1900?
Name name a city you could have and a
bank you could have put it in in 1900
that would still be there in the year
2000.
It's a short list by the way. No,
London, Switzer, you know, Zurich, New
York, you would have failed in Paris,
Berlin, anywhere in Eastern Europe, you
would have failed in Moscow, you would
have lost it all in Beijing, you would
have lost Tokyo, you would have lost it
all anywhere south of the Rio Grande.
Yeah. And in the US,
lost it everywhere in Africa,
possibly. Would Executive Order 6102
have impacted you in the US? And you
would have lost it in the US.
Yeah.
Okay. So, so isn't it ironic? Okay. So,
can't we reduce it down to maybe
Switzerland?
Maybe.
Yeah.
Like I It's an interesting exercise for
the reader, but the counterparty risk on
gold is uh is at the municipal level,
the state level, the federal level, and
the corporate level.
And that's and and over a long there's a
phrase, right? Over a long enough
timeline, the mortality rate is 100%.
Right. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. In
the long run, we're all dead. Right.
Sort of. I think Keynes may have said
that.
He said it. Robert Heinland wrote a book
called Lifeline that he said over a long
enough timeline the mortality rate is
100%.
Yeah.
And so in this particular case, back to
our gold network.
We have a gold network and we want to
move money. So I put a hundred million
dollars in gold and I want to move it
around. Well, it's 25 basis points every
time I move it around the world. If I
move it once a quarter, it's 1%
bleed a year if I move it once a
quarter. Okay? If I mine it, it's 2%
bleed a year. That gets me to 3% bleed a
year. Divide that into 70 and every 22
year. That's the halflife of gold.
Energy on a gold network has a halflife
of 22 years at best. When you throw in
the counterparty risk and the need to
move it around, let's just assume we're
moving it around so we don't lose it.
You're just down to now the the issue of
technology and commodity risk. And this
is an important point. Gold is the king
of commodities. Gold is the is the
greatest of all human commodities.
But my my first job at DuPont was I
built computer simulations of
commodities and specialty chemical
networks. And let me tell you what
people in that business think. They
think commodity is a dirty word. The
first thing I learned is commodity is
awful. Nobody wants to be in a commodity
business. And here's the reason
commodities are awful.
If I actually create um a factory that
creates a commodity, say gasoline,
the only thing it can do is create
gasoline. If I invest $10 billion into
gasoline refinery, my fixed costs are 10
billion. the uh the ideal rational price
for me to make a profit, call it $4 a
gallon, but my variable cost is $1.50 a
gallon because I've got all these
billions of dollars in the factory. What
happens is when I create commodity
refineries when the price goes below the
profit the profitable point I I can't do
I will still keep running the factory
because I've got a variable margin. I'm
generating cash flow even though I'm
driving the price down for everybody
else in the business. So, it's possible
in a commodity business for every single
producer to be losing money and from
their them to all be acting irrationally
and they're all pumping out the
commodity, be it silver. If you're a
gold miner, what can you do other than
mine gold,
right? Once I've gone and I've invested
a hundred billion dollars in mining
gold, if the price of gold is cut in
half, but my variable cost is $400 an
ounce and it's $800 an ounce. I'm mining
gold and selling it at $800 an ounce.
I'm selling it at $700 an ounce. I'm
selling it at 600. When it gets to 500,
I'm selling it because the market is not
rational. I can't transmute my hundred
billion dollars of gold mining capital
into Google stock,
right? The switching costs are too high.
It's just not possible.
And and by the way, maybe I've been
captured by the government. Like maybe
maybe a certain government wants to mine
gold. Maybe uh maybe I can't legally
stop even if I wanted to stop. So when
you have a commodity business where
people have specialized capital and they
make those investments, what happens
over time everywhere in every industry
in every commodity in the history of the
world is the producers overproduce the
commodity because in the phrase of Hotel
California, you can check in anytime you
want.
It's a one-way route,
right? you go in, you can't get out. And
so as C and course that takes us to this
real issue of gold or the real risk of
gold which is
gold price goes up by a factor of 10.
Capital gets attracted into commodity
production. It's a feedback. People
produce more. Gold price comes down.
People keep producing to try to recover
their cash flows. Lots of intelligent
people become desperate. When men are
desperate, they invent new techniques to
produce more gold. They keep producing
because they don't have a choice. They
will produce down until the variable
cost equals the price. then they will
keep producing below variable cost
because it's possible that they're in a
situation where where uh they can uh lay
off the for example a government that
takes ownership of a gold mine will
produce below variable cost in order to
maintain jobs.
We'll subsidize it. Yeah.
Where does this happen? Uh automobiles
and airlines.
This is why you don't ever want to be a
budget airline because a government will
operate airline flights at a variable
cost loss in order to avoid shutting
down the I mean the airline, right? If
you're Singapore and you turn off the
airlines because they're not profitable.
You turned off your bridge to the world.
You you know the politicians will run
the airline below variable cost. If I
want to keep jobs and how many countries
want to project jobs? If I want to
project jobs, I will produce
something below the variable co and sell
it below the variable cost. We do that
with anything that is politically
uh charged. When a government decides
education, health care, transportation,
automobiles, local manufacturing,
security, defense, defense is a great
example of something that we produce
whether we like it or not.
you know, at a cost that's higher than
potentially the value and use of it
and we can't stop it creates this
industrial complex. So
I think a good sorry to cut up just a
good point there that I think reinforces
your earlier point too. You said that
gold was the greatest commodity in
history and I think the point there is
that it is the greatest commodity in
history because it it commands human
time or commands savings. It commands
the collective output of capital that
humanity has ever created. Right? So in
that way it's kind of like the smartest
form of energy because human beings are
our ingenuity, our time, our our ability
to see the world. We are the greatest
form of economic energy in the world,
right? And gold is the the instrument
that commands that energy.
For thousands of years, it was it was
the the best commodity that we could
produce to store our energy in. Like
part partly it was hard, but it's not
the hardest thing to produce. I think
there are other commodities that are
harder to produce, but it was the best
combination of being hard and then being
durable and being nonto right. There are
toxic things that kill us.
Yeah.
You know, there are things that aren't
durable that are unstable. Like I I'm
sure we figured out how to produce gold
before we figured out how to produce
uranium or palonium,
right?
But so there's other stuff
the other the other
the sorry the other important piece too
is that gold is indestructible right
such that every ounce we ever mined is
pretty much still part of the extent
supply I think it's two Olympic size
swimming pools of gold
you ever produce
you want stability right it takes us
back to like why why Marjorie
Merryweather Post was the richest woman
in the world because Post cereal was
starch that was stable
stability at room temperature
like Coca-Cola is stable at room
temperature in a can and
a great analogy
is stable energy.
So yeah, it's energy, but nonetheless,
it's a commodity. And you know what they
call a business when it's been totally
wrecked? They call it commoditized,
right? The profit margins.
Yeah.
And so every business person forever
has always strived to avoid being
commoditized. That's that's the origin
of branding, right? We branded sugar
water. We branded Gucci bags. We branded
everything. Everybody, everybody, we
patent things. We brand things because
we want to avoid the inevitable result.
The res the result is as soon as
something is commoditized and and open
to the public and anybody can produce
it, its value goes not it goes to the
variable cost of production and then it
goes below.
Right? For example,
Apple computer worth$ two trillion
dollars today.
Google worth more than a trillion.
Facebook. These are valuable networks.
But are they the most valuable networks?
No, they're not the most valuable
networks that to our to humanity.
They're the most valuable
non-commoditized
networks because if I go to New York
City and I pull the plug on Google, it's
inconvenient. But if I go to New York
City and I pull the plug on the power
company, it's deadly,
right?
If I cut off your power and your water,
right? Or even turn off the bridge,
people die.
If I turn off Google, Facebook, and
Apple,
nobody in New York City is going to die,
right? And so
people forget this. And this is this is
the danger, by the way, of putting all
your wealth. This is the danger of
storing your wealth in Apple stock. If
you think but the world thinks Apple,
Google, and Facebook, big tech, they're
a store of value. And you know, post
pandemic, everybody surged into the
NASDAQ five and the NASDAQ because a big
tech equity. This is a store of value.
I'll be safe here. Well, you'll be safe
there for a year or two years. But you
know, General Electric and General
Motors
were once, you know, and Standard Oil,
they were the most important networks on
Earth. And they changed humanity a lot
more than Google, Apple, and Facebook
did, you know, and and you want to
change your life, try to go a week
without electricity and see if if there
aren't riots, murders, mayhem, and it
and it comes to an end. And so people
don't ask the question that they don't
ask why is it that I get my electricity
for nothing?
Why do I get my water for nothing?
Because you try try to go three days
without water, three days without
electricity. You see what that's like?
And the answer is because those two
things got declared as public utilities,
right?
They're so important
that nobody could could have a monopoly
on it. Right? As soon as as soon as
standard oil became so instrumental that
it changed the western world,
politicians got interested in standard
oil,
right?
And as soon as you know, if your power
company said, "We just decided to jack
the cost of electricity by a factor of
10, would you pay it?"
Sure, you'd pay it, right? Would you
complain? Who would you complain to?
It's politician, right?
Yeah. Yeah. So, so we've got these uh
these networks. They're really
important,
but eventually they become if they're
important enough, they become commodity
networks. And so that that that's an
interesting characteristic.
The reason that gold doesn't work over
time is
by the way, we we have two examples. It
doesn't work over time because people
produce two to three% more of it a year
and over a hundred years that means you
lose 90% of your energy.
It doesn't work over time because
there's counterparty risks, you know,
and and the Polish bank through no fault
of their own got overrun by the Nazis in
World War II and the Beijing bank got
overrun by first, you know, one regime,
then another regime, then a third
regime. Right? So, that's another reason
it doesn't work. And the third reason it
doesn't work is if the people become
threatened
by the network. So for example, 1933,
Franklin Delano Roosevelt f found gold
to be inconvenient.
If the people become threatened, they
complain to the politicians. The
politicians
might go ahead and take action. And in
this case, the reason that they were
able to take action is because all the
gold was sitting in the same place.
So if the gold's sitting in a vault and
we know where it is and it's under the
control of institutions, the
institutions are under control of
governments and therefore that that and
that heighten
the counterparty risk because the
centralized nature of gold. So the best
case for a gold network is you're going
to lose 90% of your energy over a
hundred years. But the likely case is
you're going to lose 95 to
98% of your energy over 100 years. And
and if we looked at Nicholas TB's like
range of outcomes, if you take a hundred
the hundred biggest cities in the world
and you put your gold in the best bank
in any of the hundred cities in the
world, it looks like in 95 of them or 96
of them or maybe maybe 99 of them, you
lost all your money. You lost all your
Yeah. So, so isn't it if we come back to
the issue of monetary now go ahead
Robert
just add one thing so that highlights to
one of the shortcomings of gold is that
the economies of scale
uh lead to its centralization right
because it is so heavy and hard to
transact it's not you know compare
compared to Bitcoin that's non-corporeal
that can be transmitted uh at the speed
of light because gold is so heavy it is
subtle right that that leads to its
centralization in bank vaults and that
becomes the ultimate honeypot for for
politicians and governments frankly and
the other I guess attack vector we
didn't discuss is that that temptation
is always given into right as soon as
things get dicey governments immediately
monopolize that golden energy network
which is the most important in the world
let's say it's not fast enough We talk
about you know every good technology is
smarter, faster, stronger. Every
technology smarter, faster, stronger. So
coming to digital gold versus gold,
physical gold is not fast enough. How
fast is it? If I wanted to move a hund00
million of gold, as we talked about,
it's going to cost me $250,000.
So that's that it's impedance. But how
long's going to take you? A week, a
month?
Somewhere between a Yeah, you want to
move 3,000 pounds of gold from New York
to about a month, I'm guessing, if you
want to get all the protocols set up.
So, so you're talking about a quarter
million dollars in a month to move the
gold. If assuming I needed another
custodian and I used Bitcoin and I
wanted to move a hund00 million dollars
of Bitcoin and this is this is where you
know Bitcoin critics are just utterly
wrong and missing the point. They all
think they all think, "Oh, well, it
takes 30 minutes and $5 to move
Bitcoin." And they're comparing it to uh
a new crypto network that has no value
on it. And they're saying, "I could find
a way to move it in five minutes for a
nickel." But that's not the point. The
the appropriate comparison is to gold.
How long would it take to move a hundred
million dollars of gold? And because
there's $250 trillion in assets in the
alt assets
and there's only 25 billion dollars of
real assets in the alt coins or the alt
cryptos. So
how long does it take me to move the
$250 trillion around? And when you think
about that, you realize that that
Bitcoin would move it in 30 minutes
instead of 30 days.
Okay, that's 1440 times as fast, right?
A thousand times as fast a minute versus
1440 minutes in a day.
And so it's it's thousand times as fast,
but then it's $5 versus $250,000,
right?
You know, so we we do that. That's
50,000 times cheaper.
Absolutely.
So So
now we've got people saying, "Oh, well,
it's very energy inefficient, blah,
blah, blah." Well, it's not really. It's
it's it's in it's inefficient in the way
that it's inefficient to create
an electro electro high-speed transit
system, a mass transit system. It was
expensive to build the mass transit
system. It got really really cheap to
move on the rails,
right?
If you look at the history of railroads,
right? The biggest thing in the 19th
century was railroads. It was pretty
expensive to create the railroads.
it became really cheap to move on the
rails.
Right. Right.
So, what we do is we created crypto
rails in order to make it 50,000 times
cheaper to move. But it's it's not just
that it's 50,000 times cheaper. It's
that it's a thousand times faster and
50,000 times cheaper. And then when you
start to multiply a thousand times
50,000
and you realize it starts to be 50
million times
faster,
right?
And then you start to add that third
dimension which is maybe a computer that
thinks about this while you're sleeping
18,000 times and you realize eventually
you get to 50 billion times faster. And
now we've we've got to a new engineering
or or a new scientific metaphor which is
superconducting networks.
Okay, if you you know there's impedance
going through electric power network and
you're losing it. And so the the
solution is I need to get the
superconductance. I got to cool the
network down to close to near zero,
right?
And it's expensive.
And the point is, yeah, it's expensive
to get to near zero and then the
impedance disappears in the network and
the friction goes away. And what could
you do if the friction went completely
away,
right? You're in outer space, right? The
smallest amount of energy can move
something billions of miles. And I love
that analogy, too, that you're getting
to a lower energy state, and that
eliminates the frictions to to
conductance. So you achieve
superconductivity
and in a way that's what Bitcoin is,
right? It's a monetary medium completely
free of the noise of unexpected
inflation. So you're actually conveying
pure price signal. Something we even
gold we didn't quite have that.
And I love your analogy because I mean
the aerospace engineer in me is is is
loving it a lot.
You could think about
when when you encrypt monetary energy on
the Bitcoin network.
It's like
achieving escape velocity out of the
gravity well. What we've done, we paid a
price to get out of the gravity well.
Throw a baseball on a baseball field
that goes a couple of hundred feet.
Get out of the gravity well. throw the
baseball, it'll go around the earth
forever.
Yeah.
Doesn't it? Okay. So, how much more
distance do you get out of the baseball
if you pay the price of getting out of
the gravity? Well,
right.
It's not It's not like 10 times better.
It's not a hundred times better. It's
not a million times better. It's it goes
to infinity and it never stops. And
that's the that's the breakthrough that
people don't get. It's like what could I
do if I had vacuum and I was I was rid
of friction and yeah there's a price to
pay and and that's your phase change and
your state change and uh that's why I
would say
Bitcoin is the most efficient system for
channeling energy through time and space
in the history of mankind. We we've
never figured out how to channel energy
with no impedance and channel energy
with no loss. But let's let's come back
to the outer space analogy. Take your
flashlight and shine it in your
basement. Take your flashlight, shine
it, you know, on your baseball field.
Now get into outer space and take your
flashlight and shine it. Or flip it the
other way, the Hubble telescope, right?
How much better are the photos you get
from the Hubble telescope than the
photos you get from a telescope that has
to shoot through the atmosphere,
right?
It's a billion times better.
Yeah.
It's like you just can't really imagine
the world when you're trapped in
I think energy well.
This analogy too holds for the
counterparty the institutional
counterparty risk. It's almost as once
you escape the gravity well, you're also
free of institutional counterparty risk.
Right? I don't need to worry about the
stability of the United States or JP
Morgan to transmit Bitcoin 100 years
into the future. You only need to be
concerned about the stability of the
energy network, which is maintained by
the collective self-interest of the
world. and theory.
Yeah, it it's something that's just all
together unique and we've just never had
it before.
Um, if if you now if you now
conceptualize that and you go through
your thought experiment, you realize we
need a monetary system. And our monetary
system, the three in front of our face
are let let's take it. Fiat is a
monetary system. Gold is a monetary
system. uh, Bitcoin as a as a monetary
system.
If I put my hundred million dollars of
monetary energy, I I have energy. I take
energy, I sell it on the grid, you give
me money. I take my money, I put it into
the US dollar bank. It's in fiat. I wait
a hundred years
and it's 7 to 8% asset inflation rate. I
have a half life of
10 years.
So I get cut in half 10 times.
Okay. 100 million, 50 million, 25
million, 12 million. It's going to get
painful. 6 million,
three million. I only cut in half five
times. One and a half million.
That's six times. Now it gets really
painful. 70 basis points. 35 basis
points.
17 basis points.
Eight basis points.
Eight basis points. Crazy.
Wait. Eight basis points. If you don't
get hyperinflation,
the eight basis points if if your nation
wins in this case. Yeah.
Your bet, you know. So, we're not even
what to say. It's you're losing 99% of
your energy is being charitable.
99% of your energy. Let's say now let's
put that let's let's generate a hund00
million worth of electricity by burning
coal or nuclear power or pedalling on my
flywheel or rowing on my rowing machine.
However you got to it windmills, let's
sell it to the grid. take the hundred
million and let's go to JP Morgan and
let's buy a $100 million worth of gold
and let's have them custodian for me.
Put it in their vault. I guess I could
just take it with me. It's 3,000 pounds,
right? $2,000 an ounce or whatever the
number is, you know.
Okay, so one and a half tons.
No, I got to put it in a vault, right?
So, I put it in a vault and I pay for
custody fees and you know going in
there's a fee but and then I'm I'm
paying whatever 20 30 40 basis points a
year to keep it. And then the miners are
out there doing their mining thing and
it's probably 200 basis points worth of
additional gold. So that's 250 basis
points a year. And if I watch it and you
know assuming I'm it's just a a dead
rock and I'm not it's it's heavy and I'm
not moving it. I'm doing nothing with
it. I'm just staring at it.
Then uh I've just got the I've got to
add on the counterparty risk and then
the fracking risk or the technology
risk. The fracking risk is is um
academics always opine about shortages
shortage. You know, academics have been
saying there's an oil shortage, an
energy shortage coming. They've been
saying it since the Club of Rome in 1973
or something. They they said it in the
50s and the 60s and the 70s and the 80s
and the 90s and the world always
predicted that we were going to run out
of oil or run out of energy in about 10
years. And this is I studied this at
MIT. I created computer simulations
about it. There's an entire school of
thought system dynamics that studies
these things.
The flaw in the reasoning is it's a
linear interpretation of the world
instead of a a closed feedback or a
nonlinear interpretation of the world.
The linear interpretation of the world
is we got 10 years worth of oil because
that's what our name proven reserves
are. The closed loop interpretation of
the world is when we get to when we
actually get to five years worth of
reserves, people start looking for more
reserves,
right? And so no company wants to carry
on their balance sheet more than about
10 years worth. And then they just keep
finding more, but they don't publish it
because we're not factoring in human
will to live,
human ingenuity,
right? People have a tendency that when
you tell them they're about to run out
of something, they repprioritize,
they think a little bit harder, and they
go come up with an innovative solution.
So that's what happened with fracking.
We were going to run out of oil. We had
a crisis and eventually the price of oil
went high enough that people sat down
and said, you know, if we invent a new
chemistry and if we raise some capital,
we can go ahead and implement fracking.
And we doubled the amount of oil. And we
did it fast. We had 5 million barrels a
day for like 40 years. And that was
conventional wisdom. And everybody
thought that's it. And then we went the
next year to six million, the next year
to seven million, the next year to 8
million, the next year to nine million,
the next year to 10 million. And I
watched it happen. And I watched, you
know, all of the big investment bankers,
JP Morgan and the like. They went and
they raised billions of dollars from
investors and they invested in these
fracking companies and Chesapeake Energy
and all these others popped up and we
were a wash with oil and the next thing
you read is we have too much oil.
And you know why? because it's a
commodity because if you put a hundred
billion dollars into anything,
you invent something new. So for for you
to be a this is why being a cynic and a
pessimist about technology is generally
a losing trade because you're assuming
that human beings won't invent anything
new and have no capability to do it
different.
And this has its roots in the what I
would say is kind of the Malthusian
fallacy, right? where he said we're
going to run out of food, there's going
to be mass starvation and it just fails
to take into account the nonlinearities
associated with innovation, right? When
we get our back against the wall, so to
speak, we get smarter. We figure out new
ways of of extracting resources or or
growing food. And it's impossible to, I
think, project that, right? You can't
you don't know when those breakthroughs
are coming, but when they do come, it
releases a lot of energy, right?
releases a lot of productivity.
Yeah. Mus is it's the the iconic example
of just being utterly wrong over and
over and over again. And if you study
the history of science, the history of
science is very simple. The
non-scientist and non-believers, they
will tell you why it's impossible.
And then the creative, innovative
scientist
who thought, I'm gonna ignore that and
just go try it. And 99% of the
population generally will just tell you
why it's impossible and be cynical and
critical and they're fearful. And the 1%
will say, I think I'll just go try it.
And of course, the 1% is generally
right. I mean, they're wrong until
they're right. The technology fails
until it succeeds. But if they just keep
trying, the likelihood that you'll
invent electricity or airplanes or
antibiotics
or or better techniques for agriculture
or or uh mobile phones or YouTube,
the likelihood is high. It is highly
likely that someone in the future will
come up with a way to extract all the
energy you're ever going to need from
some element the size of a sugar cube.
We don't have it yet. And I can probably
find a million conventional thinkers
that'll tell us why it's impossible. The
same guys, you know, that told John
Harrison he couldn't discover longitude
with a clock and the same guys that told
the Wright brothers they couldn't fly.
It'll be those same guys and they'll be
right until they're wrong.
Right.
And um and in this particular case,
that's a good thing. That that's a good
thing if what you want is abundance. But
that's why it's a crippling intellectual
mistake
to run a monetary system on a commodity
that can be produced by man. Ultimately,
you have to run a monetary system on
math, right? You know, as you pointed
out, I think before mathematical money
because 2 plus 2 equals 4. And as long
as 2 plus 2 equals four,
human ingenuity is not the enemy. And by
the way, this this is a basic
sociological principle really, which is
do you want to design a system assuming
that people are stupid and will not
evolve and cannot defeat it? Or do you
want to design a system assuming people
are smart and channel the energy of
human ingenuity into making the system
work better? And this is why gold is
defective and why a a decentralized
crypto network of which Bitcoin is the
most successful in the history of the
world. That's why that is effective
because Bitcoin is channeling human
ingenuity
into making it better
and and every commodity is channeling
human energy into making it worse as a
money.
And uh so if we come back to this idea,
right, um Bitcoin is the ultimate energy
network. Well, we're gonna we're going
to bleed 99.5% of our energy on a fiat
network. We're going to bleed 95% or
more of our energy on a gold network.
Once you calculate uh the fully diluted
Bitcoin count, 20,999,999
spot 98.
That's right. As I heard from Andreas
the other day, that number just slightly
less than 21 million. Once you've done
that, then you just realize that it's a
lossless
monetary energy system through through
time
through space.
It has a slight loss in the form of
transaction fees,
but that's a good thing. And it's a it's
a the transaction fees on on the Bitcoin
network are like a little bit of
impedance
a andor a little bit of gravity, a
little bit of friction.
And you know the goddess of wisdom that
created the universe gave us a little
bit of friction. It's a good thing. No
gravity, no friction, your life gets
really, really complicated.
No resistance, no growth.
Yeah.
So, yeah. And so, there's nothing wrong
with just a slight bit of friction.
That's why the idea that I got to drive
transaction fees to zero is a silly
idea. It's like, no, we what we want to
do is drive inflation or or in or the
loss of energy over time to zero. And
then we want there to be a slight loss
of energy when we reorganize
all of the monetary energy. When I send
a hund00 million
from New York to Tokyo, I don't mind
spending $5.
I probably won't mind spending $50. When
Bitcoin has $250 trillion dollars of
energy into it, there's no reason why
you can't pay 25 billion in transaction
fees. People forget, again, it's this is
the problem of of the crypto community.
They're fixated upon
a protottypical coin network that's a
lab experiment and they're comparing it
to Bitcoin instead of comparing Bitcoin
to actual monetary or asset networks in
the real world. So for example, here's a
real asset network. It's called real
estate.
I have a hundred trillion dollars of
real estate. You have a house. Let's say
you have a million dollar house.
you want to hold. This is a good
example. Let's assume that real estate
is my energy network.
If you want to actually uh carry a
million dollar house aundred years
in Florida, there's a 2% trans uh real
estate tax. You would pay $20,000 a year
every year for a hundred years, assuming
that the house was capped and not
reappraised. And so you're in essence
going to lose the house in 50 years,
right? Under the best of circumstances,
you're going to lose all your wealth in
about 20 years if you store your wealth
or you store your monetary energy in a
real estate network in um in uh Florida.
So if if you go to any other real estate
uh jurisdiction, they've all got
different tax rates over time. But this
is why you can't really store energy in
property because the tax rate generally
will bleed you
out with a h you know somewhere between
20 years and a hundred years. Now that's
the that's the inflation rate or or the
or the uh the energy loss rate over
time. What about over space? What if you
want to transfer a million-doll house?
What if I want to buy it from you?
So, you want to exchange heat exchange.
You want to exchange the energy in the
house. Well, it's a 6% transaction fee
and it and at the point that I said,
"Robert, I want to buy your house. I'll
give you a million bucks for it." How
many days to closing?
30
probably 30
best case.
Okay. So, you just paid $60,000 and
waited a month in order to do your
transaction.
Now compare that to Bitcoin again,
right? 30 minutes, six bucks,
30 days, $60,000. This is why we don't
use property as an energy network. By
the way, when by way some people do,
you could ask people point blank, how
are you going to actually give your
money to your uh granddaughter?
Oh, I'm gonna buy property. Buy it
where? California, Florida,
where it's the same counterparty rate,
by the way. It's worse than gold.
Yeah.
You can move you can move 3,000 pounds
of gold in 30 days
for $150, $200,000.
You can't move $100 million worth of
property
in 30 days to another country. And
you're also taking the counterparty
risk. Again, the other thing with
property is that it's nonfgeable, right?
So, the liquidity of the market is much
smaller than say gold or Bitcoin.
Um, and you yeah, you run the risk of
that area having some natural disaster
or some other event that makes it
uninhabitable or or unappealing.
It's it's illquid, right? It could take
you three years to sell the house.
That's right.
It'll take you three years to to find a
counterparty. It'll take you 30 days to
do the transaction. Now, we just come
back to this fee, right? What are the
transaction fees on the Visa network?
What are the transaction fees
across any monetary network? Um, it's
it's pretty routine to pay one, two, 3%
to move something around. If Bitcoin
gets
to be a hundred trillion dollars and
there's 1% transaction fees, it's going
to be 10. Well, pick any number,
multiply by 1%, right? It's a trillion
dollars a year in transaction fees.
Nothing wrong with that. What's the
entire size of the You know what the
spreads are in the bond industry? Like I
used to buy and and sell convertible
debt. There were two 200 basis point
spreads. You could buy at 96
and so you could you could buy at 98,
you could sell at 96. The banks got in
between,
right? Yeah.
You know, like so all of all of the
financial system is built on taking a
spread. That's why New York City has
tall buildings,
right?
We talked about this before. We talked
wherever there's a node in a network, a
rail head, I mean Venice, Paris, London,
New York, wherever there's a node in a
central network where there's exchange,
there's a transaction fee. And uh if
you're if you're lucky, it's only 1% or
2%.
When you're unlucky, I mean, there's a
reason people refer to free ports. Free
port meant that when you pull your ship
into the port, we weren't going to steal
it all.
B, you know what the what the great
breakthrough is in Singapore? Here's the
breakthrough. We're going to have a port
in the middle of the Pacific where if a
ship comes into our port, we don't take
all their cargo or we don't take 10% of
their cargo. That
That's your idea? Yeah, that's my idea.
We're going to let them stop here and
not seize 10% of their stuff. Wow,
that's a brilliant idea. By the way,
that's such a unique concept that
Singapore is Singapore. It is the
greatest port in all the Pacific because
it's so rare that a country agrees not
to take 3% of what you have when you
stop. By the way, you can't even come
into the United States without filling
out a customs form where they charge you
a 10% duty on whatever you have in your
possession. The point it's very common
to take 10% of what you have when you
come and when you leave. That's why
those cities are cities. That's why
those empires are empires. So when
someone sits around and they whine about
$5 in transaction fees is too great.
They're they're whining because it's
more expensive than their laboratory
experiment on their scientific workbench
that no one's using.
Right. Right.
Yeah. You can you can I can
conceptualize hypothetically in my
perfect world a perfect system where it
was better. But the real world is a
hundred trillion dollars worth of real
estate and $250 trillion worth of bonds
and stocks and gold and silver and other
property. And that stuff's moving around
with with transaction fees which are are
high enough to have paid for all the
buildings in London, Paris, New York,
San Francisco,
Beijing, Tokyo, Venice, and Rome. It's
not a new idea to charge transaction
fees. It's not a problem. And the beauty
of Bitcoin is
as more miners come on, they create a
very competitive industry. And if and if
a minor charges too much transaction
fees, someone else is going to drive the
the cost of transaction fees down. And
if if the revenue from transaction fees
falls below the variable cost of running
the mining rigs, people are going to
take mining rigs out of production
eventually.
Unless a government wants to subsidize
them in which a government's going to be
subsidizing the crypto rails which
create the 21st century economy
and that you know that's by the way
that's a reason why mining is a bit
riskier as a business than owning
Bitcoin.
Right.
Right. because you're getting into a
commodity business where you may get
driven down to the variable cost of of
the electricity or below the variable
cost of the electricity if someone else
wants to get into the business and they
can and that's it's good for Bitcoin.
It's good for everything built above the
chain,
right? caveat and core if you want to
get into uh the commodity or the the the
business of encrypted energy.
I think that's a great point too that
you bring up the transaction fees on the
Bitcoin network are set at fair market
value, right? It is a freely competitive
industry such that all of the
transaction fees are a consensual
exchange and the value paid in those
transaction fees goes you know with very
little loss directly to supporting the
security of the network. Whereas
ostensibly these government fees that
are you know they're non-consensual
they're conducted under you know a
monopolized area. A lot of that value
being extracted 10% in 10% out is not
going to securing the property rights
that you're bringing in and out, right?
It's a a very small piece of that. Most
of it's going into political coffers.
And politicians, they don't even hide
that. They'll say, "We've just decided
to tax this in order to pay for
something unrelated."
Exactly. Yeah.
[Music]
All right, guys. How good was that?
Another great episode with Mr. Sailor.
Um, I think we're starting to see things
come together in this episode where all
of this foundation we've been laying uh
starts to relate highlight the
significance of Bitcoin in the modern
age. And we started out talking about
Bitcoin being the first true digital
monetary network in history. You know,
there had been prior attempts with
things like E-old
um and other things, but they had never
solved the issue of of counterparties.
Frankly, we had never had a trust
minimized digital money um that was
basically more or less free of
counterparty risk. And Sailor brings up
the great point that, you know, Bitcoin
I think at the time we recorded was well
over $200 billion in market cap. And
when you look at Bitcoin through that
lens as an energy a digital energy
network, other digital energy networks
like Amazon, Apple, Netflix, etc. Once
they pass that hundred billion dollar
milestone, that tends to be kind of a
point of no return. Um, and also a point
that leads them to um realizing these
winner take all dynamics in uh digital
competition. And so he also makes a
great point that
at that point in those companies life
cycles, those digital monetary or I'm
sorry those digital energy networks life
cycles, 99% of the investment community
still doesn't get it. Right? When Amazon
or Apple was at 100 billion market cap,
people were still just just riding them
off and didn't realize that these are
going to be multi- you know even
trillion dollar companies today. So,
I thought that was really interesting
that Bitcoin is we really are at that
juncture, you know, where it's crossed
uh the multiundred billion dollar market
cap threshold and that gives it a lot of
resiliency to just excuse me disruption
or downside potential um where it still
has a just a ton of upside potential if
you look at it even in the context of
gold's market cap um or even other um
store stores of
And I I liked that Sailor went into
how these digital networks,
they're dematerializing
some ineffitable quality, which he was
talking about with like social media as
friendship or, you know, with with Apple
you could say maybe it's information or
communication. In the case of Bitcoin,
it's money. And there it's
taking that ineffable quality to a lower
energy state, something that's more
crystalline like. And when it when it
does that, uh, you know, using the the
analogy of a phase transition, say water
going from liquid to ice, all of this
thermal energy is released. Um, and in
an economic sense, that would be value
or cash flows or market cap. Uh, what
what I think he called was an exothermal
reaction, right? where it actually
collapses
uh to a state that requires lower energy
to remain cohesive and gives off that
excess energy um in the form of of value
of some kind. And I just thought that
was a brilliant way to look at it. And
it calls to mind again the the
standardization, right? Like when we
when we achieve certain standards and
everyone starts singing off of the same
song sheet, productivity just explodes.
So our effort effort necessary to
maintain the network collapses. So the
network gains a lot of density and then
in doing that it just um throws off all
of this uh you know whatever the
ineffable quality it's aiming for
whether it's whether it's energy or
value or or productivity for instance.
And then
Sailor, you know, he was so kind to
actually
answer the question that we always ask
on the show, which is what is money? And
the way he puts it is that money is the
highest form of energy that human beings
can channel. Um, and indeed, if you go
back to what we talked about like in
episode one, we looked at the stone age
technologies,
that's what human beings have been doing
to advance themselves. And it's what
distinguishes man from animal. In fact,
is that we harness energy and channel it
across the field lines of our intellect
essentially. And he made the point that,
you know, fire the three stone
technology we looked at were fire,
missiles, and water. Fire was harnessing
and channeling chemical energy. Missiles
were kinetic energy and water was
gravitational energy. And in the modern
era, you know, we we've we've evolved
past that. And now we're dealing with
things like thermal energy, electrical
energy, even nuclear energy.
And the point that he makes is that all
of this,
the meta energy, if you will, that
controls all of the others is money,
right? Money is the claim on the
collective savings of humanity. It's a
claim on the efforts present or past or
even future of all of us. Um so any
group that commands one of these forms
of energy can be commanded themselves by
money. So it makes money this this form
of of meta energy which I thought was a
very interesting definition.
And it's actually it's also what defines
civilization in a way. It's like what
types of energy are we harnessing,
right? Are we a stone age society that's
only harnessing fire? Um, and at what
scale are we doing that? How, you know,
at what scale are we channeling that
energy? That's those two aspects are
kind of what defines civilization in a
lot of ways. And he makes a point too
that the challenge has always been
moving the energy across domain. And
this domain could even either be uh say
a jurisdictional or governmental domain.
you know, how do you get your capital
out of one country into another with the
least loss possible? Uh, could be
characterological. So, from going from
thermal energy to kinetic energy, what's
the most efficient way to do that? We
could look at something like maybe the
steam engine was such a breakthrough
because it it um allowed us to
transition energy in the least uh the
most lossless way, we could say. Or even
just moving the energy across space and
time, right? If we can harness it and
store it in a medium uh that's reliable
and then transport it somewhere else and
and um redeem it at later at later times
for later uses uh that has a lot of
value as well as as humans try to go
into the world and solve problems. And
so in that lens,
historically at least, gold was energy
money, right? It was
the it's what captured the residual
energy that mankind was able to produce
that was not able to be put to a higher
and better use. So if we couldn't uh
dedicate our efforts towards any other
activity that could increase
productivity
um more than say gold mining then we
would just go and mine gold right and
gold again being kind of this hard
energy money would would sort of be a
its annual appreciation would be a proxy
for the the aggregate productivity
growth in an economy and if you if
unless your investment could outperform
that say it's two or 3% a year uh then
you would just mine gold. So it kind of
provided this floor for for for human
energy and this medium through which we
stored it and transported it. But I
loved this part where Sailor went into
the math behind why gold sucks like as
good even though it was the best thing
we ever had historically like it still
sucks as an energy money. One was if you
want to move gold around the world once,
say it cost you 25 basis points, which
on $100 million is $250,000
just to move it around the world once.
Um, so you know, if you're doing that
once a quarter, that's 1% energy loss
per year.
And that's something which we got into,
you would almost have to do because if
you're going to store gold, you've got
to put it in a vault. It's got to be
physically safeguarded. it's going to be
physically safeguarded over a long
period of time. Then you have to trust a
counterparty. You have to trust a
custodian. And as we went through
history, many of these custodians and
nation states have fallen over. So it's
if you wanted to transport wealth across
a 100 years, you would necessarily need
to change locations u rather frequently
uh just to avoid that risk or minimize
that risk. And then
I also looked at so that was across
space, right? say cost 1% to move it
four times a year across space. And then
also gold production increases about 2%
per year. So gold's losing uh it's got a
2% dilution built right into it with
gold mining. And so if you put those two
together, you call it 3% loss per year
in this this monetary energy battery.
You've got a 22-year halflife, right? In
22 years of holding your value in gold,
you're going to get cut in half. So
that's just not that great, you know,
like as far as building something in a
long time horizon. And then
when you start to factor in the
counterparty risk, oh, I'm sorry, after
when you get into 100 years, that's half
life is 22 years. After 100 years,
you're talking about 87% loss um in
value if you're storing in gold. And
that's your best case, by the way.
That's assuming you move it to the right
places and you don't end up storing it
in a Frankfurt or a Tokyo in 1900 or any
of these other cities that you know lost
a war or their institutions were
compromised. This assumes that you make
the right moves with it. Your best case
is let's call it a 90% loss in value.
Your worst case is 100% which is either
confiscation or outright um or you know
theft. If a German if you were in Poland
and a Germany invaded your country then
your gold was stolen effectively.
And
Bitcoin is just fundamentally different
because it's this form of money
that is it's digitized energy, right? So
it's not stored in a physical corporeal
form that can be seen, targeted,
confiscated. It'sformational, which
allows you a lot of unique ways to
custody it in these ultra high security
schemas um that are largely resistant to
these these forms of counterparty risk
that we've seen gold succumb to in the
past.
And then we got into commodities uh the
economic principles surrounding them.
And I like how he described gold mining
and that
the capex deployed into gold mining is
really largely for the purpose of mining
gold and the switching costs related to
it are very high. So you can't just turn
your gold miner off and start mining
silver, right? you really you have to in
in some cases depending on the the
actual piece of equipment it may only be
useful for mining gold but assuming it's
useful for mining something else you
have to pull it out of the mine put it
on a truck or ship ship it somewhere
else redeploy it uh not to mention all
the training and security uh involved
with that so very high switching costs
on the capex related to gold mining and
this leads to specialized producers
overproducing Right?
So they'll overproduce
this commodity gold
down to the point where marginal revenue
is equal to marginal cost. So there's no
profit and even below at times because
again they're trying to amortize the
cost of this capex they've invested in
gold mining. or they can also possibly
if they get desperate enough they can
seek a government subsidy um that can
allow them to mine below the cost of
capital even further. And so
this all of this
leads to um commodity money sort of
getting destroyed. It it just it the
incentives are to always increase its
supply and always uh compress its
margins.
And
I you know that the way Sailor puts this
is that
the energy being channeled into
commodity production.
It's actually the incentives related to
it are targeting human ingenuity at
destroying that commodity or
commodifying it which is to say to press
its profit margin and increase its
supply. Whereas those incentives in
Bitcoin are fundamentally different,
which we'll touch on shortly. But the
interesting thing here with with gold is
as a commodity or energy money is that
it was a stable form of energy at room
temperature, which as we touched on in
prior episodes is like was akin to the
breakthrough with uh consumer packaged
goods, right? with post foods that they
could store food energy at room
temperature in the form of of corn
flakes or or other canned or dried
goods. So
uh and that's this also points to
commodification at least points to this
kind of interesting configuration in the
world where we have say the electric and
water networks in any civilization are
clearly the most important. Right? if
you turned off electricity or water,
chaos would ensue.
Um whereas if you turned off say Google
or Amazon, it might be inconvenient, but
it's not necessarily going to be a total
breakdown in society.
But Amazon and Google are tremendously
more valuable on a market cap basis than
electric and water networks. And the
answer to why is because electric and
water networks are commodified, right?
They have become uh this network that's
so fundamental to civilization that
we've we've optimized how we produce and
distribute these goods in a way that
makes them ultra cost effective uh to
the consumer. Whereas things like Amazon
and Google are they haven't been
commodified yet, right? they're still
new enough uh they're newly explored
industrial territory if you will and
there's still very uh large margins
there and then there there's they're
also monopolists right which as we saw
earlier in the steel age um in in the
railroads and whatnot the in these newly
charted industrial spaces you tend to
have monopolies first before
commodification well first of all the
monopolist sets standards once the
standards are set the commodification
sets in and actually compresses the
margin and and leads us to u the more
free market environment we have today.
So commodification
also points to why fang stocks which are
being predominantly used as a store of
value today. Right? Since the store
value function of fiat currency has been
so compromised,
we see a lot of institutional capital
poles, high net worth individuals,
um, everyone really that would typically
depend on fiat currency as a store of
value, resorting to the fang stocks or
other high-flying uh, tech stocks as a
store of value, something that is
reliably scarce enough to hold its value
across time. But commodification,
uh, the history of it and the economic
principles behind it actually point
towards why that's a really bad strategy
for the long run. Um because we're early
in the digital age, you know, these data
monopolies, although they could be
expected to persist for some time, uh
you know, years, possibly even decades,
um it's very unlikely that the large
margins, profit margins they are
enjoying today will persist far into the
future. What's much more likely is that
now the standards are established, we'll
see commodification uh some of these
digital utilities that are monopolized
today uh if if history's in the
indicator. So,
in that way, you know, the fang stocks,
although they're like a primary store
value today, maybe second only to to
government bonds, um, and increasingly
so now that government bonds are largely
yielding negative. Um, they make for a
really poor long-term store of value.
And this also points towards Bitcoin and
and the uniqueness of it and that
Bitcoin is like the ultimate store value
through this lens of commodification
because it actually resists
commodification. So if you think that
Bitcoin mining is this race to produce
hashes more cheaply, right? We can think
of a hash as a a vote or a lottery
ticket um trying to win trying to solve
the puzzle to win the Coinbase uh reward
which is you know the the newly minted
Bitcoin uh in every block every 10
minutes. And so the commodification of
Bitcoin is actually in the energy being
allocated into its network. However,
and this is where Bitcoin is so unique
is that in every four years
the algorithm adjusts itself
in such a way that it actually uh pushes
back on this commodifying force uh by
cutting its new supply flow in half. So
you know at a having the operational and
energy expense being allocated
to generate a hash which is to create
bitcoin basically um that same
cost flows into half as much bitcoin
being produced. So, as Bitcoin is
undergoing this downward pressure, cost
reduction, as people figure out how to
generate hashes more cheaply, right,
with cheaper energy or better AS6 or
whatever the the breakthrough is, the
algorithm pushes back every four years
and says, you know, you're you're
pressing down cost of production um in
one way, but then every four years we're
going to we're going to double it. And
that is that's actually the incentive
structure that makes Bitcoin so
interesting. Um because that keeps
ratcheting its marginal cost of
production higher, right? And then as we
know uh in you know by studying
commodities and money that the marginal
cost of revenue or the market price
tends to converge to the marginal cost
of production. So, Bitcoin uh the
algorithm actually has this rising floor
cost of production and that's what's
ratcheting uh its market price higher
and higher. And if you look at just the
the price action of Bitcoin historically
on a log scale mapped over these
havings, you see it perfectly. Um it's
not to say that that will hold
indefinitely into the future, but it's
definitely very unique. Um, and that
we've never seen an asset that has this
um, you know, at least we're 12 years in
very predictable and algorithmically
enforced
uh, market value or I wouldn't say
enforced, let's say driven. Uh, it's
definitely influenced by the algorithm.
So something that's really interesting
and very unique to economics.
And
the other thing that's interesting to me
about that is it's it's like it's
inverting
the economic principles behind
commodification. So if you think that
the ratcheting effects in say gold
production will actually be to produce
gold more cheaply over time, right? So
just make gold uh more and more cheaply
over time.
Um, which actually points to why gold
was selected as money because it's the
thing that most resisted
commodification, right? You couldn't get
the cost of gold production lower
because it's so scarce and hard to
produce.
But because Bitcoin's pushing back, it's
actually pushing those
uh instead of it all of that effort
flowing into producing cheaper Bitcoin,
it's actually pushing us to just seek
out cheaper energy. So, it's it's
created this
uh global perpetual incentive scheme to
to figure out cheaper ways to make
energy, right? Because you can't because
that's the only way to access uh cheaper
Bitcoin production effectively. Um
although Bitcoin keeps getting harder to
produce. So, it's just really really
unique um economics to think about. And
then
we went into the settlement aspects of
Bitcoin and why comparing it to another
crypto asset is simply the wrong
comparison. Uh Sailor made a great point
that if you if you want to compare the
cost to settle in Bitcoin, you have to
compare it to gold because
with gold, you are settling in finality,
right? If you if I flip you a gold coin,
you put it in your pocket and walk away,
you and I have participated in an
irreversible transaction. Uh there's no
authority in the world that can make you
give me that coin back. Uh and there's
no authority in the world that can aside
from gold mining that can devalue that
coin. Right? So, it's
um we've transferred a token of self-s
sovereign wealth. Right? It is a it is a
final transaction, a final settlement.
And there's only one other asset in the
world that lets you do that in a in a
fully depoliticized way, right? You
could argue that, oh, Ethereum lets you
do that, but Ethereum is subject to
political attack vectors. We don't know
its whole supply. There's a a a small
group of people that control uh its
functioning. Whereas, it's just not true
for Bitcoin, right? Bitcoin is the only
truly decentralized digital asset in the
world. And
so that points to another way to think
about Bitcoin. Another analogy that we
went into was this the superconductive
monetary network, right? It's a a
lossless energy network. So we can now
transmit this meta energy that is money
across time, across space, across
jurisdictional domain, governmental
domain um with the least amount of loss.
And and the analogy there is to the
super superc conductivity is it uh
superconductivity is effectively cooling
the the conductive material to a very
low temperature. a very low entropy
medium and by by uh getting the entropy
out of the channel it maximizes the flow
of energy right there's there's the
least impedance or the least friction in
the channel and I love that analogy for
Bitcoin because that is what Bitcoin
that's the breakthrough that Bitcoin is
right it's the first asset we have in
history that has absolute 0%
noise in the channel which is unexpected
supply inflation. Everyone knows and can
agree to what the supply is and what the
supply ever will be. Um and the the the
other thing that analogy proves is that
um or points towards rather is that it's
very expensive to achieve that right
there's a great deal of energy
expenditure necessary to achieve superc
conductivity or to achieve uh this
breakthrough. But once you get there,
you release all of these uh productivity
gains. Um again, kind of like that that
uh the phase transition to a lower
energy state. When it crystallizes, it
just throws off this exothermic reaction
of value, cash flow, profit, whatever it
is. And um the you know, it's that's
what Bitcoin's done, right? It's you
we've now had this singular moment
breakthrough which we call the genesis
block. Um pretty much everything from
there has been a step function of the
algorithm that is now
releasing all of these gains into the
world in terms of reducing frictions to
trade. um you know reducing the noise
and theft in the channel in the form of
inflation and then um giving us a a
medium of wealth storage that can't be
confiscated right so it's taken a lot of
unpredictability
out of money if you will and I liked
that same achievement can also be
analogized to achieving escape velocity
which I thought was a really cool
analogy and that once you get you know
there's a huge expenditure say to get
into orbit right if you imagine a rocket
how much fuel it has to expend how much
ingenuity and design and science has to
go into building a rocket uh to get it
uh going fast enough away from the earth
to escape earth's gravitational field
but once you get into orbit
all of the sudden your returns on energy
expended go to like near infinity Right?
You could just the the example sailor
gave was throwing a baseball on a
baseball field go you know a few hundred
feet I guess if you've got a strong arm
and then it'll fall. You throw that same
baseball in orbit, it just goes around
the earth forever, right? So your
returns on energy expended just explode.
Just they become astronomical.
And
Sailor said about this, he said, quote,
"Bitcoin is the most efficient system
for channeling energy through time and
space in the history of mankind."
Like if we could just sit with that for
a while and really think about the
profoundity of something like that and
that
we are the species that channel energy
across time and space. That's what
distinguishes us as man. And here we
have the system
that has achieved this function at to a
higher degree than any other system
we've ever created. That's the
breakthrough Bitcoin is. It's something
truly remarkable. Um, and it's, you
know, why so many of us have decided to
devote our life to it, talking about it,
educating others. Um, so this thing I I
love the the engineering mindset and
lens that Sailor brought to this
equation. Um, I talked about a lot of
these aspects of Bitcoin previously, but
I was more focused on the the time side.
um which time too is is like absolutely
scarce but it's more of an experiential
uh aspect of reality whereas sailor is
very focused on the energy which is much
more of an engineering or physicist
aspect uh of reality and much more
measurable uh and objective than even
time. So, I think it's it's they're kind
of saying the same thing, but it but
it's um speaking to a different audience
in a way. I think it's uh just really
good really good stuff he's bringing to
the table. And the other thing the other
the last part I thought was cool about
the
absolute zero
superconductive monetary network or
achieving escape velocity was the
example of the Hubble Space Telescope.
Right? So for the whole history of
astronomy,
we've been pointing our telescopes
toward the sky, but we've dealt with
atmospheric distortion. Something we've
had to correct for something like um
certain objects far into the distance,
we just couldn't even see. Um and it's
all because we had this distortion,
right, of of the the atmospheric shell
that surrounds our planet. But once
again once we achieved escape velocity
and we got into earth orbit and we got a
a telescope up there in the form of
Hubble telescope
that's when we started to see the
universe in a whole new way with a whole
entirely new degree of clarity and
precision unlike anything we had ever
seen before. This totally free of
atmospheric distortion. And it's because
we eliminated the frictions to
visibility if you will, right? We we
eliminated the frictions to
communication uh in this case
communicating light to the eye or light
to the telescope and it gave us this
entirely new perspective on the universe
and I think Bitcoin is just going to do
something similar right we we've we're
we've eliminated the atmospheric
distortions if you will of counterparty
risk monetary inflation commodification
all of these things that have screwed up
every monetary system historically and
broken civilization after civilization.
All of a sudden, we have this invention
for Bitcoin that's like the Hubble
telescope, right? It just it exists
in an orbit that's beyond man's reach,
which is really important. So, it's it's
not vulnerable to counterparty attack
vectors. Uh we all know what the
inflation rate is and ever will be. So,
there's no unexpected inflation.
Um and it's just yeah just a lossless
energy network as Sailor said. It's just
something that's it's a really big
breakthrough. And then the other thing
there is the price signals that it would
propagate right with price signals
being the coordinating force in any
economy.
They've always suffered from these
distortions that we just mentioned like
inflation counterparty risk and what
have you. uncertainty in general,
entropy, right? Entropy in the channel
by being an entropyless or entropy
minimized monetary channel. Bitcoin prom
like a Bitcoin denominated world
promises to allocate capital more
efficiently than ever before. And that
may sound kind of economic nerdy when
you say uh allocating capital, but that
means putting people and assets in the
right place. So they're so they're best
satisfying wants or best solving
problems for the demands of market
participants. So it it will lead us to a
world in where more of our satisfactions
are more easily I'm sorry more of our
desires are more easily satisfied which
is a really really big deal. and
s talk too. I like this that there's
kind of two types of people there. We
have the doers in the world and we have
the naysayers.
I would also say you could call those
the tinkerers
and the bureaucrats or the entrepreneurs
and the legislators. And these are what
distinguishes these two people um is one
is actionoriented right willing to fail,
willing to take risks, willing to put
their skin in the game. Whereas the
other one is just contrarian and says
things can't be done. Um, I think I
flash back to the example of the Wright
brothers where every intellectual in the
world, there was basically consensus
among them all that man would never fly
until these two guys uh flew in their
garage. Um, so it's a really
bad idea to bet against human ingenuity.
Like if history's shown us nothing else
is that we
have this amazing ability to problem
solve in a way that we can't even
fathom. So the point being
when we look at a commodity money versus
something like Bitcoin is that it's a
really bad idea to try and run a
monetary system
based on a commodity, right? Uh it's
much better to run a monetary network
which is intended to be a system
for allocating our time and our energy
based on math, right? Based on a system
that has inviable rules or um one that
incentivizes fair play versus a twisting
of the rules because that would actually
produce uh the best outcome and the best
mode of play. Right? When rules are
fixed, players are going to play the
game to the best of their ability. But
when rules are bendable or breakable,
you're actually creating incentives uh
to behave um in a corruptive way or an
exploitative way. Um and that's what
Bitcoin is, right? It you could through
that game theoretical lens, you could
just say it's the most fair game we've
ever had. It's a fixed rule set that no
one can change or manipulate.
And
looking at a money based on commodity
versus a money based on math, you know,
Bitcoin is actually channeling human
ingenuity in a way that causes it to
improve over time. Um, and in a way that
causes civilization to improve, whereas
a commodity money is going to be
channeling human energy and ingenuity
into uh the compression of the profit
margins on that commodity uh and the
overprouction of that commodity. So, it
just
it makes so much more sense to be in a
true digital money with a rule set based
in math versus something uh you know
just based on our ability to produce it
in the natural world. It it's such
such a leap forward in innovation and
and potentially civilizational advance
as well that it's hard to even
comprehend how big of a deal this is.
And finally, we touched on the
transaction fees in the Bitcoin network.
So although it's a, you know,
quoteunquote lossless
monetary system,
there is a need, there's always going to
be a need um for some resistance in the
channel, which we would call transaction
fees. And this is essentially the fee
we're paying to the miners, right, for
uh securing the network. Um, and we
could think as Sailor alluded to as the
goddess of wisdom, you know, always
introduced a little bit of friction.
It's kind of like all things exist in
opposition a little bit. We need
something to push against to move
forward.
And you can also think of the
transaction fees as
the expense or the tax we're paying to
the governors of the network which the
the enforcers of the rules are the
miners right so in the same way you pay
taxes to the government ostensibly to
protect and preserve your private
property rights in the Bitcoin universe
we actually have to pay this tax uh to
the mining network that so they can
secure the monetary network itself and
and preserve our private property rights
in the time chain, the Bitcoin time
chain. And so to argue that a crypto
asset needs to eliminate transaction
fees is just sort of ignorant of this
fundamental truth that we need in a
monetary network. Um what we need truly
in a monetary network is zero unexpected
energy loss or inflation which Bitcoin
provides. So I hope you guys enjoyed
that episode. Uh again, that was our
first session on day two. We're now into
Bitcoin theory, getting into the modern
age, and it's only going to get more
interesting from here. So, I'll see you
back for the next