SaylorCorpus

The Predator-Prey Dynamics Of Bitcoin: Michael Saylor - Bitcoin Magazine

Bitcoin Magazine · 2021-10-08 · 1h 36m · View on YouTube →

0:00:01

you know

0:00:01

i i think that every company on earth is

0:00:04

sitting on a balance sheet that's

0:00:05

normally cash and credit

0:00:09

with a few exceptions everybody's

0:00:11

holding some kind of u.s dollar or euro

0:00:13

or the local fiat currency

0:00:16

and if they want an alternative to that

0:00:18

they're holding

0:00:19

risk low risk debt sovereign debt and if

0:00:22

they're really risky they would be

0:00:23

holding some other debt but a lot of

0:00:25

times it's sovereign debt and so that's

0:00:27

cash and credit

0:00:28

and uh the cash and credit are crumbling

0:00:31

right

0:00:32

they've always been crumbling but now

0:00:35

they're crumbling at a faster rate in

0:00:37

good times they're crumbling at seven

0:00:39

percent a year

0:00:40

and in bad times they're crumbling at 10

0:00:42

or 15 or 20 percent a year

0:00:45

and in horrific times

0:00:47

like if you're in venezuela argentina

0:00:52

lebanon

0:00:53

it's crumbling at

0:00:55

60 to 80 percent a year and that's hyper

0:00:58

inflation

0:01:00

so a year ago we were staring at a

0:01:02

balance sheet with 500 million dollars

0:01:04

of cash and credit and it looked like it

0:01:07

was almost certainly going to crumble at

0:01:09

a rate of 15 a year for four years

0:01:13

and that drove us to discover bitcoin

0:01:15

and then a light bulb went off and i

0:01:17

realized that

0:01:19

we could swap out the entire amount for

0:01:22

uh for something better and there are a

0:01:26

lot of ways to view bitcoin right you

0:01:27

can view bitcoin as digital property

0:01:30

digital money or digital energy you know

0:01:32

and if if you characterize this digital

0:01:35

property it's like i bought a 500

0:01:37

billion dollar

0:01:38

block of

0:01:39

property and cyberspace

0:01:42

and if you characterize this digital

0:01:44

money

0:01:45

i basically

0:01:46

bought 500 million dollars worth of a

0:01:49

currency

0:01:51

that nobody can pay any more of

0:01:54

and if you characterize this digital

0:01:56

energy

0:01:57

what we did is took it took analog

0:02:00

energy and we digitized it

0:02:03

you know if you had a if you had a

0:02:05

megawatt

0:02:08

power

0:02:10

and you sold that megawatt of power

0:02:13

commercially at 11 cents kilowatt hour

0:02:15

you'd have about a million dollars worth

0:02:17

of revenue

0:02:20

and if you took that megawatt of power

0:02:22

and you mined bitcoin with an s19 miner

0:02:25

today you'd have about four million

0:02:27

dollars a bitcoin

0:02:30

but the difference is if i'm holding a

0:02:32

megawatt of power as

0:02:35

electrical energy electricity

0:02:39

i'm gonna lose two percent

0:02:41

how do you put in a battery find me a

0:02:42

battery that holds a megawatt of power

0:02:44

first of all if you found one

0:02:46

it's got a two percent bleed rate a

0:02:47

month or more so you're going to lose 24

0:02:50

of your power in a year the half-life of

0:02:52

the powers at best three years

0:02:55

and if you move it you have to move it

0:02:57

on a power line

0:02:58

you can't move it more than 500 miles

0:03:00

you lose six percent of your energy

0:03:03

at the end of the line

0:03:05

every time you move it

0:03:07

so your transaction fee is high if you

0:03:09

move it and you and your inflation rate

0:03:12

is high if you hold it

0:03:14

and on the other hand if you convert it

0:03:17

to digital energy

0:03:18

you could hold it on the network forever

0:03:20

for no power loss

0:03:22

you could someone just moved two billion

0:03:23

dollars of bitcoin at 78 cents right you

0:03:26

guys saw that

0:03:28

so you could move it from here to tokyo

0:03:31

across a satellite connection for 78

0:03:34

cents so again no no cost to move it no

0:03:38

cost to hold it no constraints on the

0:03:40

storing of it

0:03:42

the half-life is forever

0:03:46

when i look at bitcoin i think

0:03:49

let's just convert the balance sheet

0:03:50

from analog money to digital money or

0:03:53

from something that's a depreciating

0:03:55

asset

0:03:56

to an appreciating asset

0:03:59

we did that and we took the first bite

0:04:01

at the apple august of last year and

0:04:03

then we

0:04:05

did a dutch auction to get permission in

0:04:07

essence from our shareholders to

0:04:08

reinvest the rest and by the time we

0:04:10

finished that we had

0:04:12

in essence given we had bought back

0:04:14

about 70 million dollars worth of stock

0:04:17

60 or 70 i forget and we had invested

0:04:20

425 million in bitcoin

0:04:23

obviously bitcoin did what it's supposed

0:04:25

to do which is appreciated

0:04:28

and uh from that point our stock started

0:04:30

appreciating bitcoin started

0:04:32

appreciating

0:04:33

and we had the ability to raise more

0:04:36

money through business operations we

0:04:38

generated cash flow

0:04:40

we sold equity

0:04:42

we sold debt

0:04:44

we sold convertible debt

0:04:46

and uh we continued to build to our

0:04:49

bitcoin position beca because what we

0:04:51

realized is

0:04:57

we could have we can and we should have

0:04:57

two strategies one strategy is run the

0:04:59

software business

0:05:01

and the other strategy is

0:05:03

run a property business we're in essence

0:05:05

running a cyber

0:05:07

development company or a cyber reit if

0:05:10

you want like

0:05:11

if i tell you there's 21 million blocks

0:05:14

in cyberspace and each one's a bitcoin

0:05:18

the world's going to consist of 21

0:05:19

million blocks and you showed up there

0:05:22

200 years before everybody else showed

0:05:26

you would think i'm just going to start

0:05:27

buying city blocks and cyberspace as

0:05:29

fast as i can

0:05:31

so we bought ourselves some

0:05:33

and then we realized that there are more

0:05:35

to be bought

0:05:37

and so we kept buying

0:05:40

what do we end up with today or where

0:05:42

are we

0:05:44

today

0:05:49

let's contrast this a year ago we were a

0:05:49

500 million dollar business growing zero

0:05:53

percent a year with 500 million in in a

0:05:55

balance sheet and crumbling cash and

0:05:57

credit

0:05:59

that's what we were a year ago

0:06:01

and the companies was valued about a

0:06:03

billion dollars

0:06:04

maybe one times revenue for the

0:06:06

enterprise software business and then

0:06:09

cash and credit is worth one that's

0:06:11

where we were a year ago today

0:06:14

we're um

0:06:16

a 500 million dollar software business

0:06:19

growing about 10 a year

0:06:21

so we got some growth out of it we got

0:06:23

more notoriety better for employee

0:06:25

morale

0:06:26

better for product awareness so we got a

0:06:28

bit of a boost

0:06:31

we're a 5 billion dollar

0:06:34

property business bitcoin business

0:06:36

growing a hundred percent a year or more

0:06:40

so we've got a high growth business

0:06:43

digital energy or digital property

0:06:46

and we've got a low growth business

0:06:48

enterprise software

0:06:50

and they're both linked

0:06:51

and they both benefit from each other in

0:06:53

different ways

0:06:57

why'd we do it well first we did it

0:06:58

defensively

0:07:00

and then we were opportunistic right

0:07:02

stage one is defensive i don't want to

0:07:04

lose my money stage two was

0:07:06

opportunistic i did it because i could

0:07:09

stage three is strategic

0:07:11

this is a pretty good idea to buy up all

0:07:13

of cyber manhattan before everybody else

0:07:16

moves here and if if bitcoin is

0:07:19

appreciating a hundred percent a year

0:07:22

and if i can borrow money at five

0:07:23

percent or one percent or six percent

0:07:27

then my arbitrage is going to be a

0:07:29

hundred percent

0:07:31

95 whatever the number is right we can

0:07:34

debate i think bitcoin went up 130 on

0:07:37

average for a decade and it's up faster

0:07:40

this year

0:07:41

so you plug in the number you think

0:07:43

it'll be but let's say we think it's

0:07:44

going to go up 110 percent

0:07:47

for the near future if i can borrow

0:07:49

money at five percent then i'm going to

0:07:51

get 105 arbitrage

0:07:54

why wouldn't you

0:08:00

right

0:08:00

so you have in that transition

0:08:03

coming defensively to bitcoin sort of

0:08:05

for the number go up technology

0:08:09

um and as most people do you right they

0:08:11

come to to make money or to stop leaking

0:08:14

wealth but

0:08:19

in my experience most bitcoiners who

0:08:19

last transitioned to thinking

0:08:22

of their worldview as as you have as

0:08:25

collecting digital property and holding

0:08:28

bitcoin there is no

0:08:30

volatility when you're holding bitcoin

0:08:32

and thinking on bitcoin terms so can you

0:08:35

speak to that mindset a little and how

0:08:37

how you came to that

0:08:41

well first i just wanted an alternative

0:08:43

to crumbling cash and crumbling credit i

0:08:45

just wanted the number not to go down

0:08:48

like most people don't think their

0:08:49

number goes down when they're holding

0:08:51

dollars but if you once you understand

0:08:53

the inflation rate you realize your

0:08:55

purchasing power

0:08:56

is going down if you're not keeping up

0:08:59

with the cost of capital and so your

0:09:00

wealth is being destroyed

0:09:02

so first i just wanted the number not to

0:09:05

go down i wanted to preserve wealth and

0:09:10

then we realized that it was uh a high

0:09:13

quality property

0:09:15

i think the um

0:09:22

i think the epiphany comes when you

0:09:22

realize that it is

0:09:26

it's the dominant digital property

0:09:28

network and digital property is better

0:09:30

than physical property in every way

0:09:32

conceivable

0:09:34

so if i if i theoretically designed

0:09:38

digital property

0:09:40

i want to store a billion dollars i want

0:09:42

to i want to hold it in the palm of my

0:09:44

hand move it at the speed of light

0:09:45

vibrate it a million times a second i

0:09:47

want it to last forever i want immortal

0:09:51

indestructible

0:09:52

infinite all-powerful

0:09:55

programmable

0:09:57

energy

0:09:58

right matter is energy

0:10:00

energy is matter

0:10:02

i can convert energy i could take a

0:10:04

billion dollars and turn into a building

0:10:06

i could in theory turn a building back

0:10:08

into a billion dollars i can buy a

0:10:10

billion dollars worth of electricity i

0:10:12

could buy a billion dollars worth of

0:10:14

whatever it is you want to do right that

0:10:16

you know money is ultimately monetary

0:10:19

energy and you can convert it into any

0:10:21

kind of product or service or property

0:10:23

it's the apex

0:10:26

once you realize that bitcoin is digital

0:10:28

property or digital money or digital

0:10:31

energy

0:10:32

all of these things

0:10:38

then it becomes clear that everything

0:10:38

else you could possibly own is inferior

0:10:40

to that

0:10:41

right you would really never want to own

0:10:44

anything other than

0:10:46

pure digital energy

0:10:49

right like what why do you want to own a

0:10:51

building right

0:10:52

the only reason you want to own a

0:10:53

building is

0:10:55

you're going to freeze to death

0:10:58

if you didn't have something to come in

0:10:59

from the cold too right like you would

0:11:01

own a building to live in because

0:11:03

otherwise you're going to freeze to

0:11:04

death okay that's a good reason but with

0:11:07

all your discretionary energy beyond

0:11:09

that if you chose to own a 50-story

0:11:12

skyscraper in manhattan

0:11:15

is that as good as digital no because

0:11:17

the mayor of manhattan can seize your

0:11:20

building by eminent domain

0:11:23

if you're thinking you're going to rent

0:11:24

the building out

0:11:26

you know the politician can tell you

0:11:28

that you're not allowed to evict any of

0:11:30

your tenants even they don't pay you

0:11:33

right so

0:11:35

the property in the physical realm can

0:11:37

be impaired by any political

0:11:39

jurisdiction

0:11:41

anyone anyone with jurisdiction over the

0:11:43

property and that means

0:11:46

that means the neighborhood uh

0:11:49

review board right the neighborhood

0:11:51

building committee can tell you you

0:11:52

can't put an awning in front of your

0:11:54

building

0:11:55

the mayor the governor

0:11:58

every every regulator osha

0:12:01

you know

0:12:02

environmental review boards the congress

0:12:05

the senate the white house

0:12:08

everybody in in that physical

0:12:10

domain can impair the value of your

0:12:13

property

0:12:16

not only that

0:12:18

it's going to be impaired the second is

0:12:19

it's going to be taxed

0:12:22

right because when they decide to tax

0:12:23

your building you can't move your

0:12:25

building

0:12:26

and the third is the building is not

0:12:28

appealing to anybody else in the

0:12:30

universe like if i'm a billionaire in

0:12:32

beijing why would i want a skyscraper in

0:12:34

manhattan if it's if it's illegal for me

0:12:36

to travel to manhattan why would i want

0:12:38

to pay for that thing

0:12:40

so if you have a billion dollars of

0:12:42

property in manhattan it's not it's not

0:12:45

fungible and it's not desirable

0:12:47

everywhere else on earth

0:12:52

what i want is something that is

0:12:52

universally desirable through all space

0:12:56

how desirable will your building be in

0:12:59

500 years

0:13:01

right

0:13:01

buildings

0:13:03

not right and so there's another

0:13:04

interesting dynamic here with physical

0:13:06

property there's a maintenance cost

0:13:08

the cost of maintenance is the

0:13:10

theoretical investment every year you

0:13:12

have to make in order to preserve the

0:13:14

property value

0:13:16

you know if you ever own a boat

0:13:18

you know what that is stop investing in

0:13:20

the boat the boat sinks if you own a

0:13:22

building like what's the useful life of

0:13:25

a building 40 years 80 years 100 years

0:13:27

show me a building in manhattan that's

0:13:29

still good 200 years later

0:13:31

still desirable

0:13:34

property

0:13:36

property in the physical domain

0:13:39

doesn't hold its value through time

0:13:42

and it doesn't hold its value through

0:13:44

space

0:13:46

and it's not fungible

0:13:48

right the rockefeller center is not the

0:13:51

same thing as a thousand acres in kansas

0:13:56

they're different things the rockefeller

0:13:58

center is not even the same thing as

0:13:59

another big building in manhattan

0:14:02

whereas a bitcoin is the same as a

0:14:05

bitcoin

0:14:07

and we're back to your issue like where

0:14:09

do you get rid of volatility one bitcoin

0:14:11

equals one bitcoin and it means the same

0:14:14

thing

0:14:15

whether or not what is one bitcoin 121

0:14:18

millionth of all the energy in the

0:14:20

network

0:14:22

and uh

0:14:24

what is it going to be in a thousand

0:14:25

years

0:14:27

121 millionth of all the energy in the

0:14:30

network

0:14:34

who's that interesting to

0:14:36

everybody

0:14:37

that joins the network

0:14:40

who can join the network

0:14:42

it's open

0:14:43

permissionless anybody

0:14:46

on earth can join the network

0:14:49

okay so is that everybody well not

0:14:51

everybody because some people haven't

0:14:53

joined the network

0:14:55

it is more inclusive than any other

0:14:59

thing

0:15:00

any other property network

0:15:02

a building in manhattan is interesting

0:15:03

to people that do business in manhattan

0:15:06

land in the us is interesting to people

0:15:08

that can traverse or do business in the

0:15:11

picasso

0:15:13

is interesting property to people who

0:15:15

appreciate picassos

0:15:18

right i mean presumably

0:15:21

a lot of people do but not everyone does

0:15:24

right so if you look at all the other

0:15:25

things you can own gold gold has value

0:15:28

to people that value gold

0:15:33

okay art

0:15:33

metals commodities

0:15:36

bullets bullets have value to people

0:15:38

that want to fire the bullets but if the

0:15:39

bullet doesn't actually fit in your gun

0:15:41

then it's pretty much useless to you

0:15:43

it's like a rock

0:15:44

very you know there's a certain bullet

0:15:46

you want certain bullet you don't want

0:15:53

why bitcoin

0:15:53

well bitcoin is the most universally

0:15:55

desirable

0:15:56

property

0:15:58

in space and time

0:16:00

it's the property with the lowest

0:16:01

maintenance cost

0:16:03

you can put a billion dollars of bitcoin

0:16:05

in coal storage and you don't have to

0:16:07

pay two percent a year to maintain it or

0:16:09

five percent a year or ten percent a

0:16:12

the maintenance cost on a boat is ten

0:16:14

percent a year the maintenance cost on a

0:16:16

building is three percent a year

0:16:19

the maintenance cost on fill in the

0:16:21

blank you know

0:16:23

pay to store your gold pay to store your

0:16:25

artwork pay to store your

0:16:27

whatever it is there's a cost

0:16:30

you own a company well there's a cost to

0:16:32

own a company you actually get diluted

0:16:34

by the share by the ceo or the executive

0:16:37

team when they issue stock options

0:16:39

you know if the company didn't have any

0:16:41

employees

0:16:42

right and didn't have any cost then

0:16:44

maybe there wouldn't be as much

0:16:46

maintenance but you know what do you

0:16:47

call a company that has no employees and

0:16:50

no maintenance costs well

0:16:52

bitcoin like

0:16:54

it becomes something else

0:16:57

so i think that when you embrace bitcoin

0:16:59

as your property strategy

0:17:02

you can get away from the maintenance

0:17:05

the likelihood is going to be impaired

0:17:07

decreases exponentially

0:17:09

uh the l it's a lot harder to seize a

0:17:12

billion dollars of bitcoin than it is to

0:17:13

seize a billion dollars of land or a

0:17:15

billion of art or a billion of gold or a

0:17:17

billion of a building or a building of

0:17:18

stock

0:17:20

exponentially harder

0:17:22

if i had uh if i have a billion dollars

0:17:24

in a bank it's easy to seize a billion

0:17:26

in a bank

0:17:27

if i wanted to take all the money uh

0:17:29

from everybody in argentina

0:17:32

i could do it overnight if it was

0:17:34

sitting in cash or credit but if i

0:17:36

wanted to seize all the money from

0:17:38

everybody in argentina and they all used

0:17:40

bitcoin and held their own keys i would

0:17:42

have to incarcerate

0:17:44

70 million people for 90 days

0:17:48

and i'd have to sweat it out of them

0:17:50

so how hard is it

0:17:52

to jail

0:17:53

70 million people for three months and

0:17:56

how many people do i need to do that

0:17:58

very difficult a thousand times harder a

0:18:01

million times higher

0:18:03

10 million times probably 10 million to

0:18:05

100 million times harder

0:18:07

to seize the asset than it is to seize

0:18:10

cash or credit or securities

0:18:14

seizing companies and seizing buildings

0:18:16

is easy right the cubans seized all the

0:18:18

all the buildings right everybody lost

0:18:20

their private property in cuba and

0:18:21

castro took over that's simple

0:18:24

it's easy to nationalize an oil company

0:18:26

it's easy to seize all the gold right we

0:18:29

know how to do that

0:18:31

it's very difficult

0:18:32

to see these passwords in people's heads

0:18:37

so i look at bitcoin and i think well

0:18:39

it's it's a universal property it'll

0:18:42

last forever it's very hard to seize

0:18:44

it's very hard to tax

0:18:47

it's uh it's easy to move

0:18:50

and that makes it universally appealing

0:18:53

because on the day you wake up and you

0:18:55

find that it's uh illegal to own bitcoin

0:18:58

in your country

0:18:59

you can either take it with you to

0:19:01

another country

0:19:03

try taking a billion dollars of gold to

0:19:05

another country with you try taking a

0:19:07

billion dollars a building on the

0:19:08

country so you can either take it with

0:19:10

you or

0:19:12

you can send it

0:19:14

somewhere

0:19:16

or you can sell it

0:19:19

and so the ability to send it

0:19:21

to take it or to

0:19:22

to keep it or to sell it all those are

0:19:24

three rights

0:19:25

that you sacrifice when you buy a house

0:19:29

or a building or land or securities or

0:19:33

credit

0:19:34

or cash

0:19:36

you don't have those right or art or

0:19:38

collectibles

0:19:39

or sports teams right whatever it is you

0:19:42

think you have

0:19:43

you don't have property rights with

0:19:45

those things

0:19:48

and ultimately the idea of bitcoin is

0:19:50

nothing is is an elegant

0:19:53

121 millionth

0:19:56

of all of the value on the network for

0:20:00

as long as the network may

0:20:04

last and

0:20:06

there's nothing more stable

0:20:09

nothing more stable nothing more

0:20:12

predictable in the entire financial

0:20:13

universe than that

0:20:15

right that is that is the single most

0:20:17

stable

0:20:20

you know

0:20:22

body in the entire financial universe if

0:20:25

you're looking for something to revolve

0:20:26

around there's nothing more stable

0:20:31

to me bitcoin is or has the potential to

0:20:37

the most useful

0:20:39

asset for meeting the coincidence of

0:20:42

wants of the most people

0:20:46

and it would follow to my mind that

0:20:48

bitcoin

0:20:49

actually

0:20:50

it doesn't

0:20:51

predict the future but it can alleviate

0:20:53

future uncertainty for the most people

0:20:57

on the planet which which to me means

0:21:00

they can accumulate property they have

0:21:02

the freedom to because of this

0:21:04

technology

0:21:06

i was wondering what what you thought

0:21:08

from a humanitarian standpoint

0:21:11

we can talk about el salvador i i think

0:21:13

yeah i think it naturally follows right

0:21:16

digital energy digital property digital

0:21:19

money is the is the greatest

0:21:22

utilitarian

0:21:24

asset

0:21:25

the greatest utilitarian value or the

0:21:28

greatest utilitarian asset on the

0:21:29

greatest utilitarian network

0:21:32

in the world in the history of the world

0:21:36

and uh

0:21:43

that means for eight billion people

0:21:43

right it it offers

0:21:45

the possibility of economic empowerment

0:21:49

i think

0:21:54

if you want to give if you want to give

0:21:54

joy to 8 billion people

0:21:56

you need digital music

0:21:58

and if you want to give education or

0:22:01

or enlightenment to 8 billion people you

0:22:03

need digital books or digital education

0:22:06

and if you want to give wealth to 8

0:22:08

billion people you need digital property

0:22:11

digital money

0:22:12

right

0:22:13

and um

0:22:18

there is no other

0:22:18

uh there's nothing else that offers that

0:22:20

promise right

0:22:22

the reason bitcoin's powerful is because

0:22:25

at the end of the day

0:22:26

you can put trillions and trillions of

0:22:28

dollars of energy on the network and you

0:22:31

can distribute it

0:22:32

over something like the lightning

0:22:33

network to eight billion mobile devices

0:22:36

and the and the mobile devices cost

0:22:37

fifty dollars

0:22:39

so the ability to give

0:22:41

uh economic energy to 8 billion people

0:22:45

on a 50 device

0:22:47

and do it with integrity and do it with

0:22:50

no friction

0:22:52

right like you're when you're moving

0:22:53

stuff with a lightning network you're

0:22:54

moving it for one satoshi

0:22:56

so it's friction free

0:22:58

speed of light

0:23:00

at any scale 37.37

0:23:04

000.37 million dollars

0:23:06

you know at any frequency

0:23:10

right like i wanna i wanna vibrate

0:23:13

something right as tesla tesla's point

0:23:16

about understand frequency if i have a

0:23:18

billion dollars of gold i put it in a

0:23:20

volt the frequency is like once every 10

0:23:22

years

0:23:23

that's the velocity of the money

0:23:25

if i have a billion dollars and i put in

0:23:27

the fiat currency and move it over the

0:23:29

visa rails

0:23:30

and the fed wire

0:23:33

then it takes one to two months to move

0:23:35

it every time i if i make a charge

0:23:37

transaction before final settlement you

0:23:40

know it's gonna be 30 days before you

0:23:41

know that you're not going to get clawed

0:23:43

back in another 15 days or something so

0:23:46

so 45 to 60 days after i pay you for

0:23:49

something you can move it so you're

0:23:51

talking about velocity of six per year

0:23:54

annual velocity six per year

0:23:56

i put the same money on on the bitcoin

0:23:58

lightning network and the velocity is

0:24:03

per minute say

0:24:05

six per second six per hour right you're

0:24:08

talking about

0:24:10

a velocity which is orders of magnitude

0:24:13

higher and then of course the cost is

0:24:16

the visa network is two percent two and

0:24:18

a half percent friction

0:24:21

cost to move a billion dollars of

0:24:22

transactions

0:24:24

25 million dollars

0:24:26

the cost to move a billion on the

0:24:27

bitcoin network 68 cents

0:24:31

the cost to move that on the lightning

0:24:33

network if you break it into like

0:24:35

a hundred thousand transactions is get a

0:24:38

hundred thousand satoshis

0:24:41

right so there's nothing comparable

0:24:44

right

0:24:44

it's a revolutionary transaction network

0:24:47

and it's also a revolutionary

0:24:50

uh monetary network

0:24:52

both at the same time it's like kind of

0:24:54

dual revolutions

0:24:57

because you know in one in one case you

0:25:00

distribute economic energy

0:25:03

to billions and billions of people

0:25:06

billions of times an hour

0:25:08

and that

0:25:09

is something of wonder

0:25:11

and in the other case you can store a

0:25:13

billion dollars of energy in a battery

0:25:16

for a hundred years

0:25:17

and still have the energy

0:25:20

and we don't have

0:25:22

any other

0:25:23

credit or cash

0:25:25

or asset instrument or property

0:25:27

instrument

0:25:29

where you could store a billion dollars

0:25:31

of economic energy for a hundred years

0:25:34

without dissipating it

0:25:36

and just a question of

0:25:37

how fast right in gold you dissipate

0:25:40

ninety percent of it in a hundred years

0:25:43

fiat like us dollars you dissipate 98

0:25:46

percent 99 and 100 years

0:25:50

in electricity like

0:25:52

literal electrical energy

0:25:54

you dissipate 100 no one can store that

0:25:57

much electrical energy for a hundred

0:25:58

years you just paid it all it's all gone

0:26:01

right even we even ran into this issue

0:26:04

with uh oil like chemical energy or

0:26:06

natural gas

0:26:07

they had this situation last year where

0:26:09

they're pumping oil on the ground and

0:26:11

the oil price went negative

0:26:13

because there's nowhere to store the oil

0:26:15

right like once you run out of

0:26:17

containers or or tanks to store the oil

0:26:21

you got to pour it

0:26:23

on the ground

0:26:24

or into the ocean you can't store it so

0:26:27

so people

0:26:28

and and we run the same issues with

0:26:30

natural gas and and the like every

0:26:33

single form of energy or form of of um

0:26:36

property is challenging

0:26:39

to move to store

0:26:41

over time

0:26:43

and bitcoin solves that problem so

0:26:46

you wanna

0:26:48

you wanna empower eight billion people

0:26:51

you need a monetary network

0:26:53

that that can reach all of them at an

0:26:56

economic

0:26:58

cost and i think

0:26:59

lightning

0:27:01

on top of bitcoin and or

0:27:03

there's other layer three apps right i

0:27:05

mean you can do

0:27:06

centralized solutions like square cash

0:27:08

app or something like that and they also

0:27:13

exponentially decreasing transaction

0:27:15

costs

0:27:16

uh that you get

0:27:18

by accepting counterparty risk but if

0:27:20

you accept the central bitcoin bank

0:27:23

and you make google or apple or facebook

0:27:26

or square or paypal that bitcoin bank

0:27:29

you can still move a billion

0:27:31

transactions an hour

0:27:32

almost frictionless and so

0:27:34

so that bitcoin offers the promise of

0:27:38

super con

0:27:39

monetary super conducting like is it's

0:27:43

in a superconducting network when you

0:27:44

get the temperature low enough level

0:27:46

there's no friction anymore and you can

0:27:48

do some pretty amazing things

0:27:49

that's what we have

0:27:52

in bitcoin

0:27:53

or maybe call it it's like

0:27:54

weightlessness if i actually took you

0:27:57

into a weightless orbit and i can all of

0:27:59

a sudden push a million pounds with a

0:28:01

finger

0:28:03

interesting things happen

0:28:05

and i i think that's what we have here

0:28:07

we it's it's a major breakthrough

0:28:09

and i think of it as

0:28:11

i think it is the next logical

0:28:14

evolution of energy electrical engine

0:28:17

electrical energy was a big deal when we

0:28:19

had mechanical energy

0:28:21

we had to put uh you know a mill was

0:28:23

built around a turbine because i'm

0:28:26

running water through the mill and every

0:28:28

machine has to run off of that turbine

0:28:31

and if and then we got to electrical

0:28:33

energy and you didn't have to build it

0:28:35

around the turbine anymore you could

0:28:37

spread out the plant across 18 acres

0:28:40

because you can move electricity

0:28:42

up and down in multiple dimensions and

0:28:45

in space

0:28:46

but with digital energy

0:28:49

you know i i'm not limited to a plant i

0:28:51

can move the energy through time and

0:28:53

space

0:28:55

a million times more efficiently

0:28:57

so the kinds of structures

0:29:00

that you could build and the kind of

0:29:02

things you could do

0:29:04

are now

0:29:05

exponentially

0:29:08

exponentially more efficient

0:29:11

yeah it seems to me like you pointed out

0:29:13

that um a lot of centralized uh forms of

0:29:16

energy you know

0:29:18

until we found a use for it oil on a

0:29:21

plot of land uh would depreciate its

0:29:23

value for most of human history

0:29:29

to my mind we've solved the problem of

0:29:31

kind of monetary entropy by

0:29:33

decentralizing

0:29:35

the whole system and keeping it

0:29:38

moving through through proof of work um

0:29:43

uh to continue to make bitcoin the

0:29:45

strongest

0:29:46

asset um

0:29:48

but what does the transition look like

0:29:50

to make it into something like the

0:29:53

strongest currency we've got the us

0:29:55

dollar dominance as a currency how does

0:29:58

bitcoin

0:29:59

transition

0:30:00

do you think it will

0:30:06

i think bitcoin as the network is going

0:30:06

to continue to grow and it's going to

0:30:07

demonetize other assets

0:30:11

and that the assets it's going to

0:30:12

demonetize will be a function of the

0:30:14

cultures that it's within so for example

0:30:18

in a culture

0:30:23

where you have hyperinflation and the

0:30:23

government collapses

0:30:25

it's going to demonetize the currency

0:30:28

because everybody desperately needs a

0:30:30

currency and there isn't an alternative

0:30:34

in a culture where people uh

0:30:37

people feel

0:30:39

it's unsafe to own property

0:30:43

like for example if you had weak

0:30:44

property rights

0:30:46

and you felt like the government was

0:30:48

going to seize your house or seize your

0:30:50

land or you couldn't own land

0:30:53

maybe it's illegal to own land then

0:30:55

bitcoin's going to demonetize the

0:30:57

property

0:30:59

like if you have a million dollars

0:31:00

you're not going to invest it and land

0:31:02

if you don't trust your property rights

0:31:05

for example like

0:31:08

i wouldn't be comfortable making an

0:31:10

investment in apartment building in a

0:31:12

city that has shown itself willing to

0:31:15

strip landlords of their rights right

0:31:18

right so you're holding an apartment

0:31:20

building you can't you can't charge your

0:31:23

your uh tenants to live in the apartment

0:31:26

building nor can you evict them

0:31:29

okay what's the what's the logical value

0:31:31

of the building does it go up or does it

0:31:33

go down in that circumstance and if i

0:31:36

have if i have discretionary cash am i

0:31:38

going to reinvest it in more apartment

0:31:40

buildings or not

0:31:42

and i think the answer is

0:31:45

wherever we see property impaired the

0:31:47

monetary energy and the property is

0:31:49

going to flow to an alternative which is

0:31:52

better so in the u.s

0:31:55

i think that that in the us people are

0:31:57

comfortable with the us dollar and what

0:31:59

they're not comfortable with or less

0:32:01

comfortable with is maybe

0:32:03

uh risky stocks

0:32:05

or or risky property investments or say

0:32:10

things like that and so it's logical

0:32:12

that bitcoin strips

0:32:15

the monetary premium from commodities

0:32:18

securities indexes

0:32:21

credit like like for example i got a

0:32:23

million dollars and i could invest it in

0:32:25

30-year t-bills yielding 1.6 percent

0:32:28

or i could buy bitcoin well

0:32:32

you know what's going to happen there is

0:32:34

my company had a lot of that right we

0:32:37

we had

0:32:38

we would normally put 90 percent of our

0:32:41

treasury into sovereign debt

0:32:43

and only 50 million of it or 10 of it

0:32:46

was sitting in cash

0:32:49

what we did is we demonetized the

0:32:51

sovereign debt for the most part and we

0:32:54

rolled into bitcoin so i think in in the

0:32:56

developed world in europe and the us i

0:32:59

think that that bitcoin is going to

0:33:01

demonetize

0:33:03

uh debt

0:33:04

low grade debt or or low yielding debt

0:33:08

and credit it's going to demonetize

0:33:10

savings accounts but i mean it's

0:33:13

uh most people had already given up on

0:33:16

savings accounts by the time we got the

0:33:18

last year what they go to etfs

0:33:21

and so i think bitcoin actually grabs uh

0:33:25

monetary energy or capital from etfs

0:33:29

from commercial real estate

0:33:31

and from debt

0:33:33

in the developed world

0:33:35

i think in the uh in the developing

0:33:38

world

0:33:40

and you know in places like

0:33:42

iran even in china and north korea in in

0:33:47

lebanon in syria in iran and iraq and

0:33:50

afghanistan

0:33:51

lots of places like that well

0:33:53

you don't have a stable banking system

0:33:56

you're not even dollarized

0:33:58

your currency is much worse than that

0:34:00

right

0:34:01

so i think that

0:34:03

i think that uh what you're going to see

0:34:05

is that if there's

0:34:07

180 countries or something out there i

0:34:10

think that 15 or 20 of them keep their

0:34:12

currency privileges i think the bottom

0:34:14

100 are going to lose their currencies i

0:34:18

think they're going to dollarize first

0:34:20

everybody wants to but how do i

0:34:22

dollarize the best way to dollarize is

0:34:25

the el salvador strategy which is

0:34:27

i have a mobile application which has

0:34:29

got dollars and it's got bitcoin on the

0:34:32

lightning network

0:34:34

uh what you want is you want a currency

0:34:37

as a medium of exchange it's like a

0:34:39

stable value coin

0:34:41

stable versus all of the pricing of the

0:34:43

retailers

0:34:45

and that's like a dollar it's probably

0:34:47

the most stable thing in the universe

0:34:49

and then you want an asset which is an

0:34:51

appreciating

0:34:55

token

0:34:56

that will will hold its value over time

0:34:59

and that's bitcoin

0:35:01

and if you wanted to maximize your

0:35:03

utility you would

0:35:05

you kind of put 90 of your balance sheet

0:35:08

into the asset

0:35:10

into bitcoin

0:35:12

and then you put the last piece the

0:35:14

working capital or the checking account

0:35:16

into whatever is the currency

0:35:20

uh that most of the retailers that

0:35:22

you're surrounded with take so if i was

0:35:24

in japan

0:35:25

i'd be holding one month worth of yen

0:35:28

and if i was in italy i'd be holding one

0:35:31

month worth of euro and if i'm in the

0:35:33

u.s or a dollar economy i'm holding one

0:35:35

month worth of dollars

0:35:37

and then the rest i'm sweeping and to

0:35:40

enter my long-term asset portfolio or

0:35:43

property portfolio and my stock of

0:35:46

property is

0:35:48

you know i maybe i buy a property to

0:35:50

live in because it's a nice house and i

0:35:52

want to live in it for the rest of my

0:35:53

life and i can't rent it

0:35:56

maybe

0:35:57

then maybe i buy my trophy art or you

0:36:01

know maybe i buy the picture because i

0:36:03

love the picture or maybe i buy the car

0:36:05

or maybe i buy the boat or maybe i buy

0:36:07

the plane or something because i want to

0:36:09

fly in it float in it live in it

0:36:10

whatever i want to do

0:36:12

but all my discretionary

0:36:14

asset i would put into the highest

0:36:17

quality property which is of course

0:36:18

bitcoin

0:36:20

so generally i think

0:36:23

i think what you're going to see is um

0:36:27

100 trillion dollars worth of capital

0:36:31

out of investment properties in the

0:36:34

developed world into bitcoin

0:36:37

and the currencies the euro the dollar

0:36:40

will get stronger like strong by

0:36:42

stronger i mean

0:36:44

i don't mean stronger in purchasing

0:36:46

power i mean

0:36:48

you'll probably see the dollar become a

0:36:50

currency used in el salvador and you'll

0:36:53

see it used in venezuela and you'll see

0:36:56

it spread to argentina

0:36:58

and why wouldn't you see it spread to

0:37:00

every country in africa

0:37:02

like name a currency in africa that you

0:37:04

would prefer to hold in your wallet

0:37:06

versus the dollar

0:37:09

none i think right is there a better

0:37:11

currency than the dollar in in africa

0:37:14

but but you know if i have

0:37:17

ten thousand dollars

0:37:19

i'm probably going to hold fifty dollars

0:37:22

in my currency wallet i'm gonna convert

0:37:24

the other

0:37:29

9950 into bitcoin

0:37:29

because

0:37:30

that's my checking account versus

0:37:32

savings account

0:37:34

and even then you know the best thing i

0:37:36

think

0:37:37

the ideal situation you want to get to

0:37:39

of all eventually is

0:37:42

i put 100

0:37:43

of my assets into bitcoin

0:37:46

and then i have a credit card slash

0:37:48

credit line which is drawn

0:37:51

against the which is converted into

0:37:53

local currency

0:37:54

and it is drawn against the bitcoin so i

0:37:57

have ten thousand dollars of bitcoin and

0:37:59

i want to spend 37

0:38:03

i spent 37

0:38:04

and now i owe 37

0:38:06

against

0:38:08

my quarter my 50 million satoshis

0:38:13

and i and i never really sell my bitcoin

0:38:17

i just generated debt against the

0:38:19

bitcoin

0:38:21

and this is

0:38:22

we're a little bit early here but

0:38:25

but if

0:38:27

if your expense ratio

0:38:29

is less than your expected appreciation

0:38:33

over time

0:38:35

that is to say if you expect bitcoin to

0:38:37

go up

0:38:38

ten percent a year and if you have

0:38:41

a million dollars in assets and your

0:38:43

expenses a year fifty 000 so your

0:38:46

expense ratio is 5 a year

0:38:48

and you expect bitcoin to appreciate it

0:38:50

10 a year if your expense ratio is less

0:38:54

than your expected appreciation over

0:38:57

you never have to sell anything ever you

0:38:59

can borrow against your assets from now

0:39:02

to the end of eternity

0:39:05

now it requires that you have uh a

0:39:08

bitcoin banking sector developed right

0:39:11

you have to have a credit line against

0:39:13

the bitcoin and we see that developing

0:39:16

in different ways around the world but

0:39:19

but ultimately that would be the ideal

0:39:21

situation you would want to have a you

0:39:23

would want to have a situation where

0:39:25

you're holding bitcoin and you're

0:39:27

drawing credit lines in the currencies

0:39:29

that exist

0:39:31

and i think what we'll see is the world

0:39:33

will reduce down to 10 currencies or

0:39:35

five the chinese currency the us dollar

0:39:38

the euro

0:39:40

right the only way currency can exist is

0:39:42

for the government to stay viable

0:39:45

and uh you know there's no afghan

0:39:47

currency right now right i mean it's not

0:39:50

going to be one of those so if you're

0:39:51

spending anything what are you going to

0:39:53

be spending right it'll probably

0:39:55

dollarize

0:39:56

if it isn't it's already dollarized

0:39:58

right

0:40:01

i think that that what we see is a

0:40:03

collapse of currencies to a few

0:40:05

and i think you see the collapse of

0:40:07

properties to a few

0:40:10

right like for example

0:40:12

there's a hundred thousand buildings in

0:40:14

the us you can buy for the cost of one

0:40:15

bitcoin

0:40:17

or you can buy bitcoin

0:40:19

which of the two is the easier decision

0:40:26

so presumably it's like

0:40:26

a lot of things that are manufactured as

0:40:29

stores of value a security a reit

0:40:32

a bond it's like

0:40:34

why do i need all that stuff if i can

0:40:37

just buy bitcoin so

0:40:40

i think that uh

0:40:43

i think

0:40:44

how will it develop it'll develop at

0:40:46

different rates organically in different

0:40:49

countries

0:40:50

in different markets based upon the

0:40:52

culture based upon the law

0:40:55

based upon

0:40:56

you know the the circumstances of the

0:40:59

people and based on crises

0:41:02

and uh

0:41:03

and based on common sense

0:41:06

right you're in argentina um do you feel

0:41:09

safe in argentina you have a million

0:41:11

dollars do you want to own a million

0:41:13

dollars worth of company in argentina a

0:41:15

ranch a building a gold a boat

0:41:20

land or do you want to own the currency

0:41:22

or do you want to own the bitcoin

0:41:25

right if if you're thinking you're going

0:41:27

to flee the country

0:41:29

everything i named is worthless except

0:41:32

for the bitcoin

0:41:34

when i had money in argentina and i was

0:41:36

trapped there i was like well can i buy

0:41:37

a boat with it it's like i either buy

0:41:39

gold i can't get that out of the country

0:41:42

i buy a yacht i can float that out of

0:41:44

the country but that was before i knew

0:41:46

about bitcoin so today if you ask me the

0:41:48

question i'd be like

0:41:49

i'd say buy bitcoin it's kind of but

0:41:52

that's because i'm leaving but on the

0:41:54

other hand if you're living in texas

0:41:56

and you like texas

0:41:58

you might feel like it's okay to own

0:42:01

a hundred acres in texas maybe you think

0:42:03

you feel safe in texas

0:42:05

and you have a gun

0:42:07

right and you have some horses and you

0:42:09

have a tractor or a truck or a jeep

0:42:12

you don't need to smuggle the gun the

0:42:15

jeep and the horses across the border

0:42:18

tomorrow so you can own that property

0:42:21

and you feel like well texas is not

0:42:23

going to impair the value of my land so

0:42:25

i guess i'm okay there

0:42:27

so i i feel like the circumstances of

0:42:30

the individual and common sense will

0:42:32

dictate

0:42:33

your property distributions

0:42:36

but the apex property is always bitcoin

0:42:39

and in my opinion which is is pretty

0:42:42

well known is

0:42:44

if you had 10 million dollars in us

0:42:47

dollars converted to bitcoin and if you

0:42:49

wanted to buy anything you're best not

0:42:52

to sell the bitcoin your best to borrow

0:42:54

against the bitcoin

0:42:57

if if the volatility of bitcoin is going

0:42:59

to be plus or minus 80

0:43:03

keep your loan to value at 10 you're

0:43:06

and if you if you if you're reasonably

0:43:08

certain that bitcoin is going to

0:43:09

appreciate it 20 a year

0:43:12

and if you can keep your expenses at

0:43:14

five percent a year

0:43:17

and if the volatility is not going to

0:43:20

cause a max drawdown of more than eighty

0:43:22

percent a year or fifty percent you

0:43:25

figure out what the number is once you

0:43:27

figure out those three calculations you

0:43:28

can get to the point where you decide

0:43:30

i'm just going to hold my assets

0:43:33

i'm going to let my asset appreciate i'm

0:43:35

going to fund my living expenses

0:43:38

with uh debt if i want to buy something

0:43:42

another asset

0:43:44

that i think is an asset i might still

0:43:46

want to borrow against my bitcoin to buy

0:43:48

the other asset

0:43:50

i don't if you actually sell your

0:43:52

bitcoin to buy an asset that's a

0:43:54

diversification

0:43:56

and you could diversify because you want

0:43:59

to diversify that's a personal decision

0:44:02

but if you've got an asset going up 130

0:44:04

a year

0:44:06

you know and you said to me mike name

0:44:08

something else that you think will go up

0:44:10

130 a year that i can diversify into

0:44:14

the answers i don't have anything right

0:44:16

like if you said to me okay well i got

0:44:19

to split my money 50 50. half goes into

0:44:21

bitcoin what's the other half

0:44:23

i don't know i guess a dive a portfolio

0:44:26

of big tech stocks maybe

0:44:28

maybe the nasdaq maybe maybe a

0:44:31

combination of apple and amazon and

0:44:33

facebook and google you buy some

0:44:36

wickedly cool technology

0:44:39

maybe

0:44:40

or you just take a very s if you want to

0:44:43

be very conservative it's like i just

0:44:45

buy a house that i expect to live in the

0:44:47

rest of my life because i know i'm going

0:44:49

to get value from that because there's

0:44:51

value to me getting up in the morning

0:44:53

and being in my space

0:44:55

so that's rational but i i don't expect

0:44:59

a million dollar house to be worth a

0:45:01

billion dollars

0:45:02

in 20 years

0:45:04

but there are people that put a million

0:45:06

in bitcoin that will make a billion off

0:45:08

of it by holding it

0:45:11

and of course that it's a very simple

0:45:13

principle right which is your house in

0:45:15

texas isn't universally appealing to

0:45:17

everybody with money on earth and i

0:45:19

can't oscillate the house in texas a

0:45:21

million times a second on an iphone

0:45:24

so the problem is the velocity of the

0:45:27

asset is slower and the appeal of the

0:45:30

asset is slower and there's a

0:45:31

maintenance charge the the house leaks

0:45:33

you got to paint it

0:45:35

there's things you got to do to it

0:45:36

there's a property tax on it

0:45:39

so if you're looking for

0:45:40

you know a measure of energy

0:45:44

that's that's easiest to develop or

0:45:47

property you can develop on top of

0:45:50

then you want the most universally

0:45:52

desirable property that's hardest to

0:45:54

impair that's easiest to develop that

0:45:58

that can be utilized at the highest

0:46:00

frequency you know i have a hotel

0:46:08

if the hotel had every room booked

0:46:08

365 days a year i'm obviously squeezing

0:46:11

more revenue out of the hotel

0:46:13

but let's do a thought experiment

0:46:15

what if i had 100 rooms in the hotel and

0:46:18

every room is booked

0:46:20

every night 365 days a year and you're

0:46:23

charging by the hour

0:46:25

well that's interesting

0:46:27

now how many hours of the year how many

0:46:30

room hours are actually unoccupied in

0:46:33

the hotel even though the hotel is

0:46:35

theoretically booked every room night

0:46:38

even if a hundred people book every room

0:46:41

night in the hotel for 365 days they

0:46:44

have to leave the room

0:46:46

they leave to go to work

0:46:48

they leave to go out

0:46:50

you know to a bar

0:46:51

they leave to commute and and point of

0:46:54

fact the hotel that's fully booked is is

0:46:58

is empty two-thirds of the time

0:47:01

so if i really could book out the room

0:47:05

hour by hour

0:47:07

my revenues would

0:47:08

triple so you see where you where you

0:47:11

get now what if i could actually book

0:47:13

out the room hour by hour to anybody in

0:47:16

any city on earth what if i could

0:47:17

actually

0:47:19

move the hotel or teleport the hotel

0:47:21

every hour

0:47:24

well not only could i drive the

0:47:26

occupancy up by a factor of 10

0:47:30

i could also increase the pricing i

0:47:32

could move the hotel to the place in the

0:47:34

world that that you know the venice

0:47:37

venice for the venice film festival

0:47:39

or i can move it to wherever the super

0:47:40

bowl is

0:47:42

so if i could move the hotel to the

0:47:45

place where the room rates are the

0:47:46

highest by the hour

0:47:49

my utilization would go up my price per

0:47:51

hour would go up

0:47:54

what if my costs were fixed

0:47:57

well now if you think about it right the

0:47:59

profitability of a hotel running at 47

0:48:03

occupancy at standard rates in dallas

0:48:05

texas

0:48:06

is 10

0:48:08

the profitability of the hotel running

0:48:10

at 100 occupancy at standard rates goes

0:48:13

to 70 percent the profit of the hotel

0:48:16

running at 300 occupancy goes to 200

0:48:19

percent the profitability of the hotel

0:48:21

running at 300 occupancy at the highest

0:48:23

marginal rate you can get for a room

0:48:26

anywhere on earth at any point in time

0:48:28

is going to

0:48:30

000 percent or 30 000 percent and so

0:48:33

what did i just do i just dematerialized

0:48:36

the property and i and i moved it with a

0:48:40

frequency

0:48:42

which was unimaginable

0:48:45

that's what bitcoin is right

0:48:47

that's what happens when you

0:48:48

dematerialize property you have the

0:48:51

option to move it with a frequency which

0:48:53

is unimaginable to the highest marginal

0:48:58

right and when people get their heads

0:48:59

around that you realize that well do you

0:49:01

want to own a hotel in texas

0:49:05

do you want to own anything fixed in the

0:49:07

real world no

0:49:09

what do you want to own you want to own

0:49:11

the the apex property and cyber space

0:49:14

that's universally desirable to

0:49:16

everybody and then you want to loan it

0:49:18

out to them for the number of seconds

0:49:21

that they want to use it

0:49:23

and then snatch it back

0:49:25

at no cost or one satoshi

0:49:28

and that really is what's interesting

0:49:30

about bitcoin

0:49:32

and everything around it right i mean

0:49:34

all of the possibility to develop those

0:49:36

businesses and develop those

0:49:38

applications

0:49:40

so we don't we don't have them all now i

0:49:42

mean defy i just described d5 by the way

0:49:45

in a way i described you know defy on

0:49:48

lightning on bitcoin

0:49:50

with an intelligent you know exchange

0:49:53

hunting for a highest optimal use but

0:49:58

but you don't have to

0:50:00

you don't have to develop all those

0:50:02

businesses immediately to grasp the

0:50:04

potential all you got to do is figure

0:50:06

out that the potential is there the

0:50:09

incentive is there

0:50:11

you can do one of two things

0:50:13

you can either

0:50:15

build one of those businesses which is

0:50:18

it's hard to build binance it's hard to

0:50:20

build an exchange it's hard to build

0:50:22

paypal it's hard to build fidelity

0:50:25

it's just hard

0:50:26

you got to deal with the regulatory

0:50:28

issues the technical issues the security

0:50:30

issues

0:50:33

the other thing you can do is you can

0:50:34

just own the bitcoin and wait

0:50:37

there's an intermediate you can own the

0:50:39

bitcoin and you can loan it out but that

0:50:41

means you have to basically pick the

0:50:42

counterparty you trust

0:50:47

maybe i get a 130 percent appreciation

0:50:50

by just waiting in cold storage

0:50:52

maybe i get

0:50:54

135 or 140 percent appreciate i get an

0:50:57

extra boost of 5

0:50:59

to 10

0:51:00

by loaning it out and trusting someone

0:51:03

or maybe i go and create my own coinbase

0:51:06

or create my own

0:51:08

fill in the blank

0:51:10

create opera create square create the

0:51:12

next great payment network of the next

0:51:14

great bank

0:51:16

yeah you do that

0:51:18

that's a different that's an endeavor

0:51:20

and maybe if you're really good and you

0:51:22

work really hard you'll create something

0:51:24

worth billions and billions of dollars

0:51:25

but that's a different thing that's

0:51:26

industry

0:51:28

so the way i look at it is

0:51:31

you know you have capital

0:51:33

you got to invest it

0:51:36

if i live 200 years ago if you go back x

0:51:39

post facto if i had a priori knowledge i

0:51:42

would go back and buy manhattan in 1900

0:51:45

all of it

0:51:47

why wouldn't you i

0:51:49

buy everything you can just buy the land

0:51:52

hold it keep it in the family

0:51:55

right that would be a good idea buy apex

0:51:58

property a hundred years before

0:52:00

everybody else has to move there and

0:52:02

wait that's what i would do then today

0:52:06

knowing what we know now

0:52:08

i would buy the apex property in

0:52:10

cyberspace

0:52:12

and the apex property in cyberspace is

0:52:14

bitcoin and i would just wait

0:52:17

and let let nature take its its its

0:52:20

course people are going to do everything

0:52:22

they can

0:52:23

to develop those applications those

0:52:25

businesses on top of digital property

0:52:29

and as they succeed

0:52:31

they're going to lock up the property

0:52:33

they're going to create more demand for

0:52:34

it they're going to drive up the price

0:52:36

of it and you're going to you're going

0:52:38

to benefit as a property holder

0:52:41

at any scale

0:52:43

right you have 37 bucks worth of it or

0:52:45

37 billion dollars worth of it that's

0:52:47

that's the option you didn't have in

0:52:49

manhattan you couldn't buy 37 worth of

0:52:51

dirt in manhattan you had to buy it one

0:52:54

block at a time and so

0:52:56

today if you want if you want to own

0:52:59

natural gas rights

0:53:01

or commodities or or commercial real

0:53:03

estate you got to buy into a reit

0:53:05

or you know something like that you have

0:53:07

to buy a security which gives you a

0:53:09

share of the thing

0:53:11

the beauty of bitcoin is you don't have

0:53:12

to buy the security if you want you can

0:53:14

buy the underlying property and a

0:53:16

pristine unit 37 million satoshi's and

0:53:20

it is it has the same

0:53:22

security

0:53:23

and the same financial appreciation

0:53:26

potential as if you bought as much as we

0:53:29

bought

0:53:38

de-materialized

0:53:38

property and money through bitcoin

0:53:41

is by open sourcing and open sourcing

0:53:45

most of the components of it so so

0:53:48

what i'm wondering is

0:53:49

as a as a patent holder

0:53:51

yourself

0:53:53

what do you think about the free flow of

0:53:55

ideas you think it's enough positive for

0:53:58

society to have

0:54:00

patents on things or is it more of a

0:54:03

business opportunity

0:54:10

think that the only reason to uh to

0:54:12

pursue a patent

0:54:15

in my opinion and this is this is

0:54:17

my opinion over the course of a 30-year

0:54:19

career is the only reason you get a

0:54:21

patent is defensively so you can defend

0:54:23

yourself against patent trolls when they

0:54:25

sue you

0:54:26

and i've used it over and over again

0:54:29

like there are people with one patent

0:54:31

and they just sue for a living it's like

0:54:34

someone finds out that use mathematics

0:54:36

on a phone or you use the color green in

0:54:39

your interface

0:54:40

and they show up saying that they use

0:54:42

math and the color green and your

0:54:44

software and they want 10 percent of

0:54:47

your company

0:54:48

and then you have to defend yourself and

0:54:51

it turns out in our legal system the the

0:54:53

best way to defend yourself is to knock

0:54:55

out their patent by having a prior claim

0:54:57

or a different related patent and so

0:55:00

so defensive portfolios of patents make

0:55:03

sense

0:55:05

am i a fan of patents not really

0:55:08

no if i could wave my hand i would

0:55:09

eliminate all patents because i think

0:55:11

the restraints of trade and i don't

0:55:13

really think that

0:55:14

the society is served by by people

0:55:17

laying claim to the right

0:55:20

you know to send messages over the air

0:55:23

or or to add numbers on a screen

0:55:26

and and ultimately all these patents

0:55:28

boil down to

0:55:29

i have an idea to do something

0:55:32

well yeah so like everybody in the human

0:55:34

race has ideas and sometimes people have

0:55:37

the same idea twice

0:55:39

so why should you be able to prevent

0:55:42

every other human from starting a fire

0:55:45

my idea was start a fire just before it

0:55:48

starts raining and pretty soon someone's

0:55:50

trying to tell you you got to freeze the

0:55:51

death because you want to start a fire

0:55:53

before it rains

0:55:54

i i'm not a big fan of them

0:55:58

you know

0:55:59

and so if we got rid of them all the

0:56:01

world be a better place but in a world

0:56:03

where we can't get rid of them then

0:56:06

accumulating them to defend

0:56:09

sovereignty is useful

0:56:11

and uh putting together like the the

0:56:14

crypto patents uh

0:56:17

as part of coppa the copa initiative is

0:56:19

primarily defensive one it's a useful

0:56:21

thing to do

0:56:23

to defend it

0:56:24

i do think the open network is obviously

0:56:26

much more powerful especially in this

0:56:29

context and

0:56:30

i think the closed network is hopeless

0:56:32

right i mean first of all it's

0:56:34

you can't have a centralized money

0:56:38

i mean because you can't establish it as

0:56:40

being anything other than a security

0:56:42

right every centralized system is going

0:56:44

to pass the howie test it's going to be

0:56:46

a common enterprise and pursuit of

0:56:48

profit

0:56:49

and if that's the case

0:56:52

then you lose your moral standing

0:56:57

you can't as a senator or congressman or

0:56:59

a mayor or governor or president you

0:57:01

can't actually promote a security

0:57:04

if the senator said i think that apple

0:57:06

stock is a better store of value than

0:57:08

the us dollar that's a violation of

0:57:10

house ethics rules

0:57:12

like that's just wrong in so many

0:57:13

different ways that you can't imagine

0:57:15

how wrong that is and so

0:57:17

so i think that um that things that are

0:57:20

patented and to any degree centralized

0:57:23

they don't serve as a universal

0:57:27

medium of exchange or a universal store

0:57:30

of value or universal unit of account

0:57:33

right they're not money they can't be

0:57:35

money

0:57:37

and uh if you're trying to create

0:57:38

digital energy

0:57:40

the whole idea is

0:57:42

i want to be able to move my energy

0:57:45

between 8 billion people

0:57:47

across every political jurisdiction

0:57:49

across 100 million corporations on a

0:57:52

universal open protocol

0:57:55

and so

0:57:57

if you if you attempt to constrain or

0:57:59

license the protocol

0:58:02

right it's

0:58:03

it doesn't it's no longer a universal

0:58:05

language of energy anymore

0:58:08

i mean imagine if if you know half the

0:58:10

people in the world weren't able to use

0:58:12

the word for

0:58:16

how does anything work if you're not

0:58:17

allowed to use the word for or the

0:58:20

number four right because someone's got

0:58:22

a patent on four

0:58:24

so the answer is it doesn't work as a

0:58:27

protocol you'll never install

0:58:29

a universal

0:58:31

monetary protocol unless it's open

0:58:34

for so many obvious reasons

0:58:37

and and it will never be successful

0:58:44

right in information is by definition

0:58:44

copyable i mean this

0:58:47

this is everything

0:58:49

including bitcoin private keys i mean

0:58:52

kind of like

0:58:53

the one trade-off with bitcoin is the

0:58:55

burden of responsibility falls on the

0:58:57

user to protect

0:59:00

one piece of information

0:59:02

and so what i'm wondering is

0:59:05

what do you think about a future

0:59:08

this future where we're lending bitcoin

0:59:10

and what do you think about banks

0:59:12

co-opting

0:59:13

the custody of bitcoin from the majority

0:59:17

of people who aren't going to put in the

0:59:19

thousand hours to learn how to do it

0:59:20

successfully

0:59:23

i think there's um

0:59:25

a very vibrant

0:59:28

dynamically

0:59:29

evolving market

0:59:34

bitcoin applications

0:59:37

that are mutating faster than we can

0:59:39

speak or describe them

0:59:42

in every jurisdiction it's like like a

0:59:44

petri dish of life

0:59:46

like for example

0:59:49

there's a use case of bitcoin which is

0:59:51

i'm going to use it and i'm going to use

0:59:53

a hardware wallet and place a certain

0:59:55

amount in coal storage

0:59:57

okay and there's a lot of people that

0:59:59

have mastered that and that's a good

1:00:00

thing but even the people that have

1:00:02

mastered that would admit that there's

1:00:05

another use case which is the chivo

1:00:07

application in el salvador

1:00:11

right that is a downloadable you know

1:00:14

wallet that's that's moving around

1:00:16

bitcoin on the lightning network

1:00:18

and it's riskier

1:00:20

right you've got kyc involved so it's

1:00:23

not as private

1:00:24

and it's riskier because you you know

1:00:26

you could lose your mobile phone

1:00:29

but it's faster

1:00:31

and then you've got a third application

1:00:34

which is like strike or

1:00:36

a third-party party lightning wallet

1:00:39

which is and there are some

1:00:41

moon or breeze

1:00:44

they're not

1:00:45

kyc they're not they're non-custodial

1:00:49

and that's a third application and

1:00:51

that's

1:00:52

did that benefit from

1:00:55

the existence of the shiva wallet sure

1:00:57

it does

1:00:58

the demand for the for those wallets

1:01:00

will go up because the civil wallet goes

1:01:03

up and and then in the defense of of the

1:01:06

president of el salvador kind of hard to

1:01:08

give 30 worth of bitcoin to every

1:01:10

citizen unless you do some kind of kyc

1:01:13

citizenship check right

1:01:15

otherwise one citizen claims it 10

1:01:17

million times right so

1:01:20

and everybody else gets nothing

1:01:23

so there's an application

1:01:26

that's different there

1:01:28

there's a fourth application right what

1:01:30

what if you're

1:01:31

a company a corporation is going to take

1:01:34

the view that they don't want to have a

1:01:36

single individual they'll want to have a

1:01:37

multi-signature

1:01:39

relationship

1:01:41

when it comes to custody of their

1:01:43

bitcoin and they'll have more

1:01:44

sophisticated

1:01:46

uh custodial

1:01:48

rules

1:01:49

a government

1:01:51

would be even different if if you were a

1:01:53

citizen of of a of a

1:01:56

a city

1:01:58

and the city

1:01:59

put a billion dollars of bitcoin on its

1:02:01

balance sheet would you want the mayor

1:02:04

to carry the keys around and by the way

1:02:07

if you were the mayor would you want

1:02:08

people to know that you actually have

1:02:10

the keys i mean wouldn't you be

1:02:11

concerned about getting kidnapped and

1:02:13

having your fingers ripped off one at a

1:02:15

time or having your

1:02:17

a family member kidnapped so in that

1:02:20

particular case they're going to

1:02:21

actually be interested in a different

1:02:23

thing right like

1:02:25

like so that's another application and

1:02:27

that's multi-signature application but

1:02:30

then who should be signing it and in

1:02:32

some cases not even multi-sig across

1:02:34

people it's multi-sig across

1:02:36

organizations like

1:02:38

three agencies

1:02:40

or three corporations or auditors might

1:02:43

need to have some involvement

1:02:46

i i'm not threatened by the entry of

1:02:49

banks

1:02:50

i think that um

1:02:52

they're all just different

1:02:54

manifestations of bitcoin bitcoin is

1:02:56

property

1:02:58

and you can build things on top of it

1:03:01

one thing you can build on top of it is

1:03:03

uh is a checking account and a savings

1:03:05

account you know we need square and

1:03:07

paypal to offer their mobile apps on top

1:03:09

of it but we also could use an etf

1:03:13

for example

1:03:14

uh there are organizations in our

1:03:17

society i mean if i'm an institutional

1:03:19

investor i have two billion dollars it

1:03:22

took me 30 years to raise the 2 billion

1:03:24

dollars

1:03:25

the the money's raised from fireman's

1:03:27

pension funds and unions

1:03:29

and other and other organizations and

1:03:32

foundations the rockefeller foundation

1:03:34

and they gave me the money and they gave

1:03:35

it to me 15 years ago

1:03:37

and i have the ability to buy securities

1:03:41

with it but i don't have the ability to

1:03:43

buy property with it or i don't have the

1:03:45

ability to buy bitcoin with it

1:03:47

and if i wanted to buy bitcoin

1:03:50

i would have to convince a board of

1:03:51

directors with 28 people on it that

1:03:53

meets once every six months and then i

1:03:55

would have to convince my outside

1:03:57

auditors and i'd have to change the law

1:03:59

in the state of

1:04:00

utah and then i would have to go back to

1:04:03

all of my limited partners and explain

1:04:04

to them and then i'd have to actually

1:04:06

educate 252 people and my outside

1:04:09

auditors and after i did that i go

1:04:11

through a one-year process to establish

1:04:13

my relationship with the bitcoin

1:04:15

exchange then i have to figure out how

1:04:17

we're going to custody it and that would

1:04:19

take me about oh five years and i'd

1:04:21

probably fail

1:04:23

99 of the time

1:04:27

i could punch a button and buy 27

1:04:29

million dollars worth of the bitcoin etf

1:04:31

and i could do that in 30 seconds

1:04:36

is there a role for an etf

1:04:38

sure there is for the you know you can

1:04:40

say well you know that part you know the

1:04:43

person that invests the firemen's fund

1:04:45

ought to actually hold their own keys

1:04:48

well if you were a retired fireman

1:04:51

and you had your entire pension

1:04:53

and someone said there's one dude we

1:04:55

hired last week and he has two billion

1:04:57

dollars of your money and he's got the

1:04:59

keys and he just disappeared

1:05:02

you might not take kindly to that right

1:05:06

it's not always the case that the right

1:05:09

answer is

1:05:11

you know

1:05:12

cold storage hardware wallet

1:05:14

self-custody

1:05:16

it depends upon who you are

1:05:19

and we can't let the perfect be the

1:05:21

enemy of the good

1:05:22

i would say there's probably a there's

1:05:24

probably a thousand different

1:05:25

instantiations in fact more than that

1:05:28

for example the etf is a way to get

1:05:31

bitcoin exposure

1:05:32

now you could say is that as good as

1:05:34

holding the bitcoin no is it is it

1:05:37

better than holding an etf that's

1:05:39

invested in negative yielding sovereign

1:05:41

debt of italy

1:05:44

my choice isn't the choice to own

1:05:46

bitcoin or or own the etf my choice is

1:05:49

to own the italian sovereign debt etf or

1:05:52

own the bitcoin etf that's my choice

1:05:55

so once you realize that you realize

1:05:57

that um

1:05:59

that what we want is we want traditional

1:06:02

banks to offer certain types of bitcoin

1:06:05

accounts we want the new mobile banks

1:06:07

like square and

1:06:08

paypal you're going to have the square

1:06:12

you'll have square that lets you hold

1:06:14

bitcoin and move it out of out of square

1:06:17

and move it on a cache tag but they

1:06:18

don't support lightning yet

1:06:20

but at some point square cache cache app

1:06:23

will support lightning they'll be better

1:06:25

when paypal supported bitcoin they

1:06:27

didn't support bitcoin withdrawals they

1:06:29

were worse

1:06:30

when they had bitcoin withdrawals

1:06:31

they're better when they add lightning

1:06:33

they'll be better still

1:06:35

right there's going to be then there's

1:06:36

going to be non-custodial wallets

1:06:39

they're better better right

1:06:40

you're going to have layers of but but

1:06:43

not but the guys in the hardware wall of

1:06:45

business say non-custodial

1:06:47

hot wallets on mobile phones aren't as

1:06:51

so i'm going to stack up layers of

1:06:54

bitcoin

1:06:55

and i can name probably

1:06:58

20 off the top of my head

1:07:00

you're gonna you know you can own a

1:07:02

piece of uh you can own a junk bond for

1:07:04

a microstrategy that yields six and

1:07:06

eight percent interest

1:07:07

is that as good as owning bitcoin no

1:07:10

is it better than owning a junk bond

1:07:12

that isn't backed by bitcoin that yields

1:07:14

two percent interest

1:07:17

you see so you can own a convert and

1:07:20

microstrategy

1:07:21

and that yields like whatever half a

1:07:23

percent interest

1:07:25

but it's backed by micro by bitcoin and

1:07:27

bitcoin goes up by a factor of 10 your

1:07:30

bond's gonna go up by a factor of five

1:07:33

is that better than owning bitcoin

1:07:36

is it better than owning another

1:07:37

convertible bond that's backed by some

1:07:40

other you know the space tourism or

1:07:42

something

1:07:43

maybe

1:07:44

right depends

1:07:46

so what you have is a universe of people

1:07:48

that can own certain types of securities

1:07:51

and certain types of properties by

1:07:53

charter

1:07:55

and then you have uh and then you have a

1:07:57

a universe of securities and properties

1:08:00

of bitcoin that are being offered as the

1:08:03

banking sector and the financial sector

1:08:06

evolves

1:08:08

when the sector evolves when we have a

1:08:10

bitcoin etf in the us billions and

1:08:12

billions of dollars will flow into

1:08:14

bitcoin that under no shape

1:08:17

under no circumstances would have found

1:08:19

their way into bitcoin otherwise

1:08:22

i know people i know a 70 year old guy

1:08:26

he's got a phone in his hand he might

1:08:28

have something like a paypal on it he

1:08:31

can do this he can go

1:08:33

two thousand dollars

1:08:34

bitcoin that's what he can do

1:08:38

if you go back to him and say you know i

1:08:40

need you to like listen to 500 hours of

1:08:42

videos and learn to go through a 97 step

1:08:44

process and buy these 14 things

1:08:48

i can't do it right

1:08:50

so so it's literally like i cannot do it

1:08:53

in theory it would be nice if we all had

1:08:56

our own gun and our own shack on our own

1:08:58

ranch with our own livestock and we had

1:09:01

we could grow our own food and we could

1:09:03

ride our horses we can go off the grid

1:09:06

et cetera but

1:09:08

it gets real when you gotta perform your

1:09:10

own appendectomy

1:09:13

at that point you start thinking maybe

1:09:14

this living off the grid thing wasn't

1:09:17

you know

1:09:18

such a good idea

1:09:20

right and and so i i think with um

1:09:24

with bitcoin

1:09:26

you've got different services in every

1:09:28

country in every market

1:09:31

and and what's legally possible and

1:09:33

possible from a regulatory point of view

1:09:35

and what's technically possible and

1:09:36

what's practical

1:09:38

is changing all the time

1:09:41

i happen to i happen to think that

1:09:44

the best outcome is the greatest

1:09:46

diversity of market opportunities

1:09:49

because i i'm not smart enough to know

1:09:52

the one right answer

1:09:55

and i i do think that

1:09:58

if you look at uh if you look at

1:10:00

consumers there's a different solution

1:10:02

for different types of individuals

1:10:05

if you look at

1:10:08

my 83 year old dad right he's not going

1:10:10

to buy anything with the mobile app

1:10:13

but he might

1:10:14

sell his stock portfolio and put it into

1:10:16

a bitcoin etf if he could do that with

1:10:19

right so individuals

1:10:22

you know they have their own needs

1:10:25

corporations are different

1:10:27

some companies can buy bitcoin some

1:10:29

companies some companies for example

1:10:31

would want a treasury service from

1:10:32

fidelity that gave them three percent

1:10:34

yield where they could just buy 10

1:10:36

million dollars worth of it on a phone

1:10:38

call and they don't want to custody it

1:10:40

and right now their choice is hold cash

1:10:43

or tell jp morgan or bank of america sit

1:10:46

a group to put it in

1:10:48

that they the treasurers they just sweep

1:10:50

billions of dollars into short dated

1:10:52

sovereign debt portfolios

1:10:54

buy me a 157 million dollars worth of uh

1:10:59

90 day government debt thank you click

1:11:02

right they need something like a

1:11:04

treasury type service backed by bitcoin

1:11:07

if you go to institutions

1:11:09

every institution's got a different

1:11:11

charter some people by law they can do

1:11:13

convertible debt arbitrage if you give

1:11:15

them a convertible debt instrument they

1:11:17

can buy it if you don't they can't it's

1:11:19

i mean

1:11:20

i mean it's not really an issue of do

1:11:22

they want to they can't the guy that's

1:11:24

sitting with you can talk with you for

1:11:26

five minutes punch a button and buy 500

1:11:28

million dollars worth of the security

1:11:31

and you could talk to him for 10 000

1:11:33

hours and he can't buy

1:11:35

the underlying bitcoin and take personal

1:11:37

custody of it just can't

1:11:39

so all those institutions are different

1:11:42

and then

1:11:43

stuff gets really real when you get to

1:11:45

municipal

1:11:46

state and federal governments

1:11:49

under what circumstances do you want

1:11:52

what if the

1:11:53

what if jerome powell said tomorrow

1:11:56

we decided to buy a hundred billion

1:11:58

dollars of bitcoin

1:11:59

how do you feel about that and then how

1:12:01

would you like him to do that

1:12:03

how should he go about that

1:12:11

do you want jerome powell to walk around

1:12:11

with the keys like

1:12:12

what you know you want the 12 members of

1:12:14

the federal reserve board i mean who do

1:12:16

you really trust

1:12:18

what if we elect a new president and the

1:12:21

old one just won't give up the money

1:12:23

like what if what if my family just

1:12:26

keeps the 100 billion right like so

1:12:29

when you get in the political domain

1:12:32

now it's different

1:12:34

so i tend to think there's a place for

1:12:36

all those things and there's some that

1:12:38

will be more successful than others

1:12:41

and there's you know

1:12:43

some bitcoin banks will fail right some

1:12:45

bitcoin exchanges are crooked sometimes

1:12:47

they have security issues sometimes that

1:12:49

you know somebody steals all the bitcoin

1:12:51

right it's happened

1:12:52

it will happen again

1:12:54

right the market needs to squeeze out

1:12:56

the weak offerings

1:12:59

even you know even hardware wallets

1:13:01

there are some that are better than

1:13:02

others right software wallets some are

1:13:03

better than others non-custodial

1:13:05

custodial they're not all equal they're

1:13:08

not all perfect

1:13:09

right so

1:13:10

i i think that the competition should

1:13:13

continue

1:13:14

i think the beauty of the open network

1:13:16

is the protocols are out there

1:13:18

when apple computer decides to build

1:13:21

their own apple pay bitcoin offering

1:13:24

they have access to the protocols will

1:13:25

they do better than square will they do

1:13:27

better than paypal well they do better

1:13:29

than google i don't know here's what i

1:13:32

know they should be punished if they

1:13:34

don't

1:13:36

right

1:13:37

the money the capital should go away

1:13:40

from the people that do a poor job

1:13:43

to the people that do the best job who

1:13:45

gets to make the decision

1:13:47

the people with the capital should make

1:13:48

the decision

1:13:50

i i shouldn't be calling if i tweeted

1:13:52

you take all your money and put it in

1:13:54

this software wallet you would you would

1:13:56

think it's like it's a little bit

1:13:57

offensive

1:13:59

so let the people with the money make

1:14:02

the decision and uh

1:14:04

give them a give them an entire universe

1:14:06

of options

1:14:08

some are going to make a mistake some

1:14:09

are going to lose their keys

1:14:11

someone lose their phone some exchanges

1:14:13

are gonna get hacked right it's like

1:14:15

that's life

1:14:17

in the universe

1:14:18

that which does not kill us makes us

1:14:20

stronger

1:14:21

some stuff kills us

1:14:24

that still makes us stronger the part of

1:14:26

the herd that doesn't die is the

1:14:27

stronger part of the herd

1:14:30

and that's that's darwinian

1:14:32

natural selection

1:14:34

you know the all the alternatives are

1:14:37

are less desirable in my opinion

1:14:42

it seems to me bitcoin is is good at

1:14:45

promoting its own production much like

1:14:49

you know jeans

1:14:52

which brings me to probably my last

1:14:54

question what what if any are the the

1:14:57

predator

1:14:58

dynamics of bitcoin and how are they

1:15:00

different from those of you know the

1:15:03

potentially infinite

1:15:05

um asset and

1:15:06

fiat currency

1:15:12

i think there's um

1:15:12

there's a very uh

1:15:14

dynamic competitive market in bitcoin

1:15:16

mining

1:15:17

on the security side of the network

1:15:20

and i think there's a very dynamic

1:15:21

competitive market in uh bitcoin and the

1:15:25

exchanges

1:15:27

and i think there's a dynamic

1:15:29

competitive market in the applications

1:15:32

so call them the banks

1:15:34

or the financial application itself and

1:15:36

all three of those are very darwinian to

1:15:39

the benefit of the network

1:15:41

so for example

1:15:42

you know like

1:15:44

if i take an s19 miner and 30 megawatts

1:15:47

of energy i can create an extra hash

1:15:51

it took me 150 megawatts of energy to

1:15:53

create an axa hash with an s9 miner

1:15:56

if you take the generation before that

1:15:59

you're talking about 500 megawatts of

1:16:01

energy

1:16:03

if i'm sitting on mining equipment after

1:16:05

six to eight years

1:16:07

i'm obsolete

1:16:09

and my break even

1:16:11

the break-even point for the s19 is 40

1:16:13

cents

1:16:14

45 cents a kilowatt hour the break-even

1:16:17

point for the s9 is 9 cents a kilowatt

1:16:19

hour the break-even point for the

1:16:21

previous generation is 2 cents a

1:16:22

kilowatt hour

1:16:24

what's happening is the bitcoin mining

1:16:26

network is upgrading its technology

1:16:29

and squeezing off the grid

1:16:32

all of the obsolete or the third

1:16:34

generation the older technology

1:16:38

um if you can't upgrade if you don't

1:16:40

have the money to buy the new generation

1:16:42

technology you got to pay the price with

1:16:44

energy and at some point you need 50 x

1:16:47

as much energy you can't afford to pay

1:16:48

the price you're you're getting squeezed

1:16:50

out no matter what

1:16:53

if you can't get the bitcoin mining

1:16:55

equipment vendor to sell to you

1:16:57

like what a bit main won't sell to me

1:16:59

okay while you're still losing

1:17:01

it's a competition to maintain the trust

1:17:04

of the vendor

1:17:05

you know there's a competition at the

1:17:07

hardware layer if you don't like the

1:17:08

fact that bitmain controls most of the

1:17:10

market you go to another vendor and you

1:17:12

get them to manufacture a mining rig

1:17:14

which is comparable okay so

1:17:17

we're continually creating new hash

1:17:19

power that's competitive

1:17:22

we're looking for cheaper sources of

1:17:24

energy that's competitive

1:17:26

if you trusted a free source of energy

1:17:28

in china and the government cut you off

1:17:30

well you lost that was a bad decision

1:17:33

and so you're looking for political

1:17:35

support

1:17:36

if the energy provider isn't trustworthy

1:17:38

if they pull the rug out from under you

1:17:41

you're you know

1:17:42

you're out of luck you're lost

1:17:44

if the politicians pull their political

1:17:46

support you're lost

1:17:48

if you can't upgrade your hardware

1:17:49

you're lost if you engineer your mining

1:17:51

facility poorly and you don't do the

1:17:54

right heat dissipation you burn out your

1:17:55

rigs you're lost

1:17:57

if you can't raise capital in order to

1:18:00

buy new mining equipment you're lost

1:18:03

if you don't have the trust of the

1:18:05

capital markets right

1:18:07

marathon and riot are publicly trading

1:18:09

they can go and they can raise equity in

1:18:11

debt if you can't go public you're a

1:18:13

disadvantage

1:18:15

if you're in a market where there are no

1:18:16

capital markets the chinese can't take

1:18:18

their chinese mining companies public

1:18:20

their disadvantage

1:18:21

and so

1:18:23

on the mining side there's a comp

1:18:24

there's a competition for capital

1:18:27

there's a competition to engineer mining

1:18:29

facilities there's competition to design

1:18:31

semiconductors

1:18:33

shaw 256 mining rigs there's a

1:18:36

competition to operate

1:18:39

by the way you can't get ripped off by

1:18:40

your employees either right

1:18:43

all of these things there's a

1:18:44

competition to find uh supported

1:18:46

political jurisdictions

1:18:48

that's never-ending

1:18:50

what's the result on bitcoin uh bitcoin

1:18:53

gets more secure and more robust and

1:18:55

more more anti-fragile

1:18:57

it's not inflationary right because the

1:18:59

protocol is locked in

1:19:01

the only result is the network

1:19:04

decentralizes or like

1:19:06

would bitcoin be at risk if all the

1:19:09

mining was in one place and one

1:19:12

politician could turn it off at the same

1:19:13

time with the snap of a finger yes

1:19:19

what happens when someone does that on a

1:19:22

small part of the network it teaches

1:19:24

everybody else and they decentralize and

1:19:26

they're looking for places if i'm going

1:19:28

to invest 500 million dollars in bitcoin

1:19:31

mining don't you think i'm going to pick

1:19:33

a jurisdiction where they're not likely

1:19:35

to outlaw me in the next decade

1:19:38

there's a reason i might want to go to

1:19:39

texas and not go to say new york

1:19:42

or california

1:19:44

right i'm going to go find a supportive

1:19:46

jurisdiction

1:19:48

so the mining network is has got a very

1:19:50

healthy uh competitive dynamic across

1:19:53

five different types of capital

1:19:56

engineering capital you know

1:19:58

semiconductor technical capital

1:20:00

political capital

1:20:02

financial capital you know uh and even

1:20:05

human capital

1:20:07

so that's going on and that's good to

1:20:09

the entire network

1:20:11

on the exchange side

1:20:13

well you see that in process right now

1:20:16

all of the migration you know coinbase

1:20:18

is competing with binance competing with

1:20:20

ftx competing with square competing with

1:20:23

paypal

1:20:24

what's going to happen do i want a

1:20:25

crypto exchange a bitcoin only exchange

1:20:28

do i want a bitcoin only non-custodial

1:20:30

custodial

1:20:32

do i want to have leverage or not

1:20:34

leverage well there's

1:20:36

legal issues there's there's technical

1:20:39

issues there's market driven issues

1:20:42

ultimately the competition is driving

1:20:45

more diversity and more choice and

1:20:47

people are going to migrate to the thing

1:20:49

they're most comfortable with

1:20:51

the other day i bought 30 worth of

1:20:53

bitcoin uh

1:20:55

you know i bought it on one application

1:20:57

and paid 69 cent fee and then i went and

1:21:00

i i tried uh strike

1:21:03

and i paid next to nothing

1:21:05

i thought that's kind of cool

1:21:07

okay so thank you jack mahlers we

1:21:09

appreciate that

1:21:11

competition makes us all better right

1:21:14

there's pressure and uh and that

1:21:16

pressure will continue

1:21:18

so um

1:21:20

when will that end that won't end

1:21:23

right i mean it was a it's a herculean

1:21:26

lift that el salvador managed to deliver

1:21:29

the chivo wallet in 90 days but there's

1:21:32

already people complaining about it you

1:21:34

know it's custodial and it's kyc'd and

1:21:37

they'll be in the next thing okay well

1:21:39

if if we roll forward to the next

1:21:41

generation every 90 days or every

1:21:44

six months you know that seems pretty

1:21:46

healthy to me

1:21:48

and uh we need that right because we can

1:21:50

never make we can never make the

1:21:52

exchanges too efficient we can never

1:21:55

make the wall it's too functional or too

1:21:57

secure we're going to continue with that

1:22:00

and the beauty is look we need square to

1:22:03

do what they're doing why because you

1:22:04

need a big company to actually compete

1:22:08

apple apple computer is not going to

1:22:11

enter the bitcoin space because they're

1:22:14

threatened by

1:22:16

a non-custodial wallet you know coming

1:22:18

out of south america

1:22:20

right

1:22:22

they're not going to compete they're not

1:22:23

going to enter the space for chivo

1:22:25

either but they will enter the space if

1:22:27

they see square and paypal

1:22:29

generating hundreds of billions of

1:22:31

dollars of market cap if you think that

1:22:34

square is going to take

1:22:36

500 million users off of apple pay

1:22:41

that will cause a response from a

1:22:43

facebook or a google or an apple

1:22:46

so it's useful to have that competition

1:22:48

going there because because we might

1:22:50

want apple to decide to buy a hundred

1:22:52

billion of bitcoin and to build bitcoin

1:22:54

into a billion iphones that might you

1:22:57

know create a secure element as a

1:22:59

hardware wallet on the iphone that would

1:23:00

be a useful thing

1:23:02

so that competition is useful in that

1:23:04

regime but on the other hand the

1:23:06

competition of of moon versus breeze

1:23:09

versus you know strike versus whatever i

1:23:12

mean that's useful too

1:23:14

non-custodial versus custodial lightning

1:23:18

and there's going to be a different

1:23:20

wallet in every single country you know

1:23:22

and you're going to have jurisdictions

1:23:23

they're going to have an impact

1:23:27

i think that's good and then i think the

1:23:28

third area we talked about

1:23:31

that i mentioned is just applications or

1:23:33

banking apps

1:23:35

like um

1:23:36

microstrategy has a convertible bond

1:23:39

there are hundreds of billions of

1:23:41

dollars of capital

1:23:43

that can buy convertible bonds

1:23:47

is it good or is it bad well it's the

1:23:50

only bitcoin back convertible bond

1:23:52

there's only two convertible bonds in

1:23:53

the world that are backed by bitcoin and

1:23:55

we issued both of them

1:23:59

then there's a junk bond backed by

1:24:01

bitcoin there's one of them in the world

1:24:02

we issued it

1:24:06

there'll be etfs

1:24:08

there'll be other kinds of products

1:24:11

they all compete with each other

1:24:13

each one of them meets a different need

1:24:15

in the market

1:24:16

will what if someone else comes along

1:24:18

with the better bond okay well that's

1:24:21

good too

1:24:22

you know what if

1:24:24

if if coinbase turned around tomorrow

1:24:27

and decided to issue 20 billion dollars

1:24:29

worth of convertible bonds to buy

1:24:31

bitcoin

1:24:33

would i be upset

1:24:35

well you know like maybe it would make

1:24:36

the micro strategy bond less desirable

1:24:38

but other than making bitcoin more

1:24:40

desirable and then the bitcoin would

1:24:41

trade up and then microstrategy equity

1:24:43

would trade up and then the micro

1:24:44

strategy bond would trade up and so

1:24:47

the competition's probably a good thing

1:24:50

and if uh jp morgan and morgan stanley

1:24:54

and goldman sachs decided they wanted to

1:24:56

start to do this

1:24:58

you know that

1:25:00

like uh maybe that's a good thing for

1:25:02

everybody

1:25:05

i think ultimately in fact i won't say

1:25:07

maybe right the competition is good

1:25:10

all the the more the more options there

1:25:13

are for bitcoin securities the better it

1:25:15

is for bitcoin

1:25:16

the more options there are for bitcoin

1:25:19

wallets and bitcoin exchanges the better

1:25:21

it is for bitcoin

1:25:23

and the more competition in bitcoin

1:25:25

mining the better it is for bitcoin the

1:25:28

more bitcoin mining rig companies the

1:25:30

better is for bitcoin bitcoin wins no

1:25:33

matter what happens

1:25:35

having said all that

1:25:37

and this is what i say to entrepreneurs

1:25:39

if you have a bitcoin company you know

1:25:42

there's a 99 chance or a 99 failure rate

1:25:46

for most corporations over a long enough

1:25:48

period of time

1:25:50

right

1:25:51

there's a lot of

1:25:53

there there

1:25:54

there were hundreds and hundreds of

1:25:56

companies that wanted to be apple's

1:25:58

iphone

1:25:59

and how many companies wanted to be

1:26:00

instagram and how many companies wanted

1:26:02

to be facebook

1:26:04

you know and how many companies wanted

1:26:05

to be amazon

1:26:07

for amazon to win 15 000 retailers have

1:26:10

to lose

1:26:11

okay so

1:26:14

competition

1:26:16

is good for the underlying network it'll

1:26:19

be great for the protocol of bitcoin

1:26:21

it'll be great for the asset value of

1:26:23

bitcoin

1:26:24

it's not good for the competitor

1:26:27

like you're going to have to fight tooth

1:26:30

and nail you know with every iota of

1:26:32

your energy to succeed in whatever

1:26:35

market you choose to go into and if if

1:26:38

you're going to go into that market you

1:26:39

need to have a set of strategic assets

1:26:43

ideally

1:26:44

like for example fidelity has 22 million

1:26:47

customers and they've been selling

1:26:49

treasury services and funds to big

1:26:52

institutions for the past 50 years

1:26:55

can they offer a bitcoin fund sure

1:26:58

can they put bitcoin into their fixed

1:26:59

income

1:27:00

fund products yeah they have two

1:27:02

trillion dollars worth of that stuff

1:27:05

okay are they going to defeat square

1:27:07

cash up no

1:27:09

who's got more customers jack dorsey or

1:27:11

fidelity jack dorsey he's got more than

1:27:14

20 million

1:27:19

now jack dorsey's not competing against

1:27:19

fidelity he's competing against apple

1:27:22

and paypal

1:27:23

in a different way

1:27:25

and they've got their assets

1:27:28

so you but and so what's his advantage

1:27:30

he's more nimble than they are

1:27:33

and what's your advantage maybe you're

1:27:35

more nimble than the someone bigger than

1:27:38

and can you turn that into a compelling

1:27:40

sustainable advantage maybe

1:27:42

apple did it

1:27:44

google did it

1:27:46

yahoo came first

1:27:48

you can

1:27:49

are the odds in your favor no

1:27:53

what's the most rational strategy if

1:27:54

you're a competitor

1:27:56

take your entire balance sheet and

1:27:58

invest in bitcoin

1:28:00

and then borrow against your balance

1:28:02

sheet to fund your operations

1:28:05

right if you raised 100 million dollars

1:28:07

to build a new bitcoin software wallet i

1:28:09

would say take 100 million buy bitcoin

1:28:11

with it and now pay your payroll by

1:28:13

borrowing against the bitcoin and if you

1:28:16

succeed more power to you you'll be

1:28:17

worth

1:28:18

a lot more than

1:28:20

you know

1:28:21

100 million

1:28:24

20 bitcoin per million so you buy 2 000

1:28:28

bitcoin right

1:28:30

so you'll be worth 2 000 bitcoin if you

1:28:33

disinvest your treasury

1:28:35

i think bitcoins go to a million next

1:28:37

stop right so 2 000 times a million is

1:28:39

pretty good

1:28:40

nothing wrong with that

1:28:42

and if you're and if the business itself

1:28:44

works you'll be worth 4 000 bitcoin

1:28:52

but if you hold 100 million in cash

1:28:52

and the business doesn't work you'll be

1:28:53

worth nothing

1:28:56

or zero

1:28:58

right that that same logic holds for

1:29:01

bitcoin miners

1:29:03

right if you're mining bitcoin you never

1:29:05

want to sell any bitcoin and if you

1:29:07

raise money you want to buy bitcoin with

1:29:09

the money you raise and then you want to

1:29:11

borrow against the bitcoin to pay the

1:29:13

operating expenses

1:29:15

if you do that if if you believe in

1:29:17

bitcoin it's it's obvious

1:29:20

if you don't believe in bitcoin

1:29:22

maybe you shouldn't be in the business

1:29:24

like if you're gonna look me in the face

1:29:25

and if you don't think bitcoins going to

1:29:28

a million dollars a coin and then 10

1:29:29

million dollars a coin

1:29:31

i don't think you should be a bitcoin

1:29:32

miner i don't think you should be a

1:29:34

bitcoin exchange i don't think you

1:29:35

should be a bitcoin wallet i don't think

1:29:38

you should i just don't think you should

1:29:39

be you shouldn't be a pure play focused

1:29:42

in the business at all because you're

1:29:43

already you're already a loser you've

1:29:45

already decided you're going to lose

1:29:47

if you think

1:29:48

your assets going to zero it's hopeless

1:29:50

all these other things if you think it's

1:29:52

not going to zero

1:29:54

then rational

1:29:56

thinking is

1:29:57

the competition in the market is making

1:30:00

my bitcoin more valuable that's good but

1:30:02

the competition is making my existing

1:30:05

business less profitable that's bad

1:30:08

and if i'm a genius and i execute well

1:30:10

maybe i can stay ahead of everybody else

1:30:12

maybe

1:30:15

but while i'm doing that

1:30:17

every single free dollar i can raise i

1:30:20

should convert to bitcoin

1:30:22

because

1:30:24

there's many out of a hundred

1:30:25

possibilities there's 99 paths where you

1:30:28

fail and bitcoin succeeds

1:30:34

and there's one path where you fail or

1:30:34

you succeed in bitcoin succeeds

1:30:40

you know some people don't think bitcoin

1:30:41

is going to succeed but they're not

1:30:43

they're not with us right

1:30:45

you don't think bitcoin is going to

1:30:46

succeed go do something else you know

1:30:48

whatever with your life but don't

1:30:50

don't try to create a bitcoin business

1:31:00

any closing remarks for today michael

1:31:00

thoughts

1:31:03

my closing remark is i thought bitcoin

1:31:05

was a good idea in august of 2020.

1:31:09

there's every single month for the past

1:31:12

13 months there have been fundamental

1:31:14

developments in the space that have made

1:31:15

it a better idea

1:31:17

every single month every week i almost

1:31:20

see a new development that makes that

1:31:23

makes the network stronger

1:31:25

smarter

1:31:26

faster

1:31:28

harder

1:31:29

it makes it more anti-fragile it makes

1:31:32

it more like it becomes clearer and

1:31:34

clearer

1:31:35

that this is

1:31:37

the future of digital property this is

1:31:40

digital energy

1:31:41

this is the future of digital money

1:31:44

this is the solution to the the problems

1:31:48

of the world this is a macroeconomic

1:31:51

imperative for 500 trillion dollars

1:31:53

worth of capital this is a technical

1:31:55

imperative for everybody in the

1:31:57

technology industry

1:31:59

and the energy industry

1:32:01

and this is a moral imperative for

1:32:03

everybody on earth

1:32:05

right so

1:32:06

i've just become more convicted every

1:32:08

single week every single month that's

1:32:10

gone by there's not a single thing

1:32:12

that's happened the past 13 months

1:32:15

that i thought

1:32:17

caused me to think that the future was

1:32:19

riskier or less certain

1:32:21

i mean even even the china exodus right

1:32:23

which was probably the most brutal

1:32:25

event that we've seen it was a good

1:32:28

thing for the network and it

1:32:31

it removed the biggest existential

1:32:34

threats you know is china is bitcoin

1:32:36

going to be hijacked by the chinese

1:32:37

government

1:32:38

what about a 51 attack you know how

1:32:41

anti-fragile is the network

1:32:44

is bitcoin american or chinese

1:32:47

technology

1:32:48

after the china exodus it became clear

1:32:51

that bitcoin is

1:32:52

us technology this is good for the

1:32:54

western world

1:32:56

this is part of the western technology

1:32:58

stack this is google and apple and

1:33:00

amazon and facebook

1:33:02

and and bitcoin right this is

1:33:06

that so the worst thing that happened

1:33:07

was the best thing to happen everything

1:33:09

else has been a good thing to happen

1:33:12

it's like

1:33:13

you know you just you're watching every

1:33:15

shoe drop

1:33:16

companies adopting

1:33:18

banks adopting

1:33:20

politicians supporting

1:33:22

right the the negative fudd in the media

1:33:25

is just people noticing that bitcoin is

1:33:28

the most disruptive technology of the

1:33:30

decade

1:33:31

and and even the negative publicity is

1:33:34

positive publicity it's all just

1:33:35

marketing bitcoin

1:33:37

it's like if these people hate on it so

1:33:38

much why it must be really good

1:33:41

that they're so afraid of it

1:33:45

and where

1:33:47

you know how you have a shockwave

1:33:49

a shock wave forms when you move faster

1:33:51

than the uh than the air

1:33:54

if i move through the air faster than

1:33:57

then uh the air can

1:34:00

can flow around me

1:34:02

then i create a shock wave

1:34:04

uh i'm disrupting laminar flow and i'm

1:34:06

getting turbulence

1:34:08

because i'm going too fast

1:34:11

bitcoin is creating turbulence

1:34:14

because it's going too fast

1:34:16

right when you see some uninformed

1:34:18

politician that critiques it it's

1:34:20

because they were asked to have an

1:34:22

opinion and they had 10 minutes to study

1:34:24

it and so they give an uninformed

1:34:26

opinion

1:34:27

when some billionaire investor says they

1:34:30

like gold better it's because they're

1:34:31

asked to have an opinion and they spent

1:34:33

30 years studying gold and they haven't

1:34:35

spent 30 hours or 300 hours or a

1:34:38

thousand hours studying bitcoin they had

1:34:40

30 minutes 60 minutes 15 minutes

1:34:44

a lot of people you know when these

1:34:45

editorials are written in the journal in

1:34:47

the new york times it's

1:34:50

i never seen anybody

1:34:52

ever say oh i spent a thousand hours

1:34:54

studying bitcoin let me break down my

1:34:56

problems with it

1:34:58

i never seen anybody say i spent 100

1:35:00

hours studying it let me tell you the

1:35:02

13 problems i have you know

1:35:05

there are no informed critiques

1:35:09

i have yet to see them there are

1:35:11

uninformed critiques and what is that

1:35:15

that's the same as your fighter jet

1:35:17

slamming into a wall of air faster than

1:35:21

the speed of sound and you get a shock

1:35:23

wave and you get turbulence and you get

1:35:26

and you get sound and fury

1:35:29

and is that a bad thing

1:35:31

just means we're moving fast

1:35:34

right we're moving very fast and we're

1:35:36

getting noticed and everyone has to

1:35:38

notice it

1:35:40

right when you're asking the

1:35:42

spokesperson for the kremlin you know

1:35:44

for for

1:35:45

for putin whether or not russia is going

1:35:48

to adopt bitcoin as the national

1:35:50

currency

1:35:52

that's not when they say not yet or no

1:35:55

that's not

1:35:57

that's not a negative signal

1:36:00

that's a positive signal nobody asked

1:36:02

putin whether they're going to adopt

1:36:04

apple stock or gold or silver

1:36:07

or the giant stone coin of the yap

1:36:09

people

1:36:10

as currency in russia

1:36:13

right there's only one question they're

1:36:15

asking them

1:36:16

and they're asking them the question

1:36:18

because it's on the table and that's

1:36:21

indicative of the success of bitcoin

1:36:27

to summarize

1:36:29

i am more bullish than ever

Copied!