The Predator-Prey Dynamics Of Bitcoin: Michael Saylor - Bitcoin Magazine
Bitcoin Magazine · 2021-10-08 · 1h 36m · View on YouTube →
you know
i i think that every company on earth is
sitting on a balance sheet that's
normally cash and credit
so
with a few exceptions everybody's
holding some kind of u.s dollar or euro
or the local fiat currency
and if they want an alternative to that
they're holding
risk low risk debt sovereign debt and if
they're really risky they would be
holding some other debt but a lot of
times it's sovereign debt and so that's
cash and credit
and uh the cash and credit are crumbling
right
they've always been crumbling but now
they're crumbling at a faster rate in
good times they're crumbling at seven
percent a year
and in bad times they're crumbling at 10
or 15 or 20 percent a year
and in horrific times
like if you're in venezuela argentina
lebanon
it's crumbling at
60 to 80 percent a year and that's hyper
inflation
so a year ago we were staring at a
balance sheet with 500 million dollars
of cash and credit and it looked like it
was almost certainly going to crumble at
a rate of 15 a year for four years
and that drove us to discover bitcoin
and then a light bulb went off and i
realized that
we could swap out the entire amount for
uh for something better and there are a
lot of ways to view bitcoin right you
can view bitcoin as digital property
digital money or digital energy you know
and if if you characterize this digital
property it's like i bought a 500
billion dollar
block of
property and cyberspace
and if you characterize this digital
money
i basically
bought 500 million dollars worth of a
currency
that nobody can pay any more of
and if you characterize this digital
energy
what we did is took it took analog
energy and we digitized it
you know if you had a if you had a
megawatt
of
power
and you sold that megawatt of power
commercially at 11 cents kilowatt hour
you'd have about a million dollars worth
of revenue
and if you took that megawatt of power
and you mined bitcoin with an s19 miner
today you'd have about four million
dollars a bitcoin
but the difference is if i'm holding a
megawatt of power as
electrical energy electricity
i'm gonna lose two percent
how do you put in a battery find me a
battery that holds a megawatt of power
first of all if you found one
it's got a two percent bleed rate a
month or more so you're going to lose 24
of your power in a year the half-life of
the powers at best three years
and if you move it you have to move it
on a power line
you can't move it more than 500 miles
you lose six percent of your energy
at the end of the line
every time you move it
so your transaction fee is high if you
move it and you and your inflation rate
is high if you hold it
and on the other hand if you convert it
to digital energy
you could hold it on the network forever
for no power loss
you could someone just moved two billion
dollars of bitcoin at 78 cents right you
guys saw that
so you could move it from here to tokyo
across a satellite connection for 78
cents so again no no cost to move it no
cost to hold it no constraints on the
storing of it
the half-life is forever
so
when i look at bitcoin i think
let's just convert the balance sheet
from analog money to digital money or
from something that's a depreciating
asset
to an appreciating asset
we did that and we took the first bite
at the apple august of last year and
then we
did a dutch auction to get permission in
essence from our shareholders to
reinvest the rest and by the time we
finished that we had
in essence given we had bought back
about 70 million dollars worth of stock
60 or 70 i forget and we had invested
425 million in bitcoin
obviously bitcoin did what it's supposed
to do which is appreciated
and uh from that point our stock started
appreciating bitcoin started
appreciating
and we had the ability to raise more
money through business operations we
generated cash flow
we sold equity
we sold debt
we sold convertible debt
and uh we continued to build to our
bitcoin position beca because what we
realized is
we could have we can and we should have
two strategies one strategy is run the
software business
and the other strategy is
run a property business we're in essence
running a cyber
development company or a cyber reit if
you want like
if i tell you there's 21 million blocks
in cyberspace and each one's a bitcoin
and
the world's going to consist of 21
million blocks and you showed up there
200 years before everybody else showed
up
you would think i'm just going to start
buying city blocks and cyberspace as
fast as i can
so we bought ourselves some
and then we realized that there are more
to be bought
and so we kept buying
so
what do we end up with today or where
are we
today
let's contrast this a year ago we were a
500 million dollar business growing zero
percent a year with 500 million in in a
balance sheet and crumbling cash and
credit
that's what we were a year ago
and the companies was valued about a
billion dollars
maybe one times revenue for the
enterprise software business and then
the
cash and credit is worth one that's
where we were a year ago today
we're um
a 500 million dollar software business
growing about 10 a year
so we got some growth out of it we got
more notoriety better for employee
morale
better for product awareness so we got a
bit of a boost
and
we're a 5 billion dollar
property business bitcoin business
growing a hundred percent a year or more
so we've got a high growth business
digital energy or digital property
and we've got a low growth business
enterprise software
and they're both linked
and they both benefit from each other in
different ways
so
why'd we do it well first we did it
defensively
and then we were opportunistic right
stage one is defensive i don't want to
lose my money stage two was
opportunistic i did it because i could
stage three is strategic
this is a pretty good idea to buy up all
of cyber manhattan before everybody else
moves here and if if bitcoin is
appreciating a hundred percent a year
and if i can borrow money at five
percent or one percent or six percent
then my arbitrage is going to be a
hundred percent
95 whatever the number is right we can
debate i think bitcoin went up 130 on
average for a decade and it's up faster
this year
so you plug in the number you think
it'll be but let's say we think it's
going to go up 110 percent
for the near future if i can borrow
money at five percent then i'm going to
get 105 arbitrage
why wouldn't you
right
so you have in that transition
coming defensively to bitcoin sort of
for the number go up technology
um and as most people do you right they
come to to make money or to stop leaking
wealth but
in my experience most bitcoiners who
last transitioned to thinking
of their worldview as as you have as
collecting digital property and holding
bitcoin there is no
volatility when you're holding bitcoin
and thinking on bitcoin terms so can you
speak to that mindset a little and how
how you came to that
well first i just wanted an alternative
to crumbling cash and crumbling credit i
just wanted the number not to go down
like most people don't think their
number goes down when they're holding
dollars but if you once you understand
the inflation rate you realize your
purchasing power
is going down if you're not keeping up
with the cost of capital and so your
wealth is being destroyed
so first i just wanted the number not to
go down i wanted to preserve wealth and
then
then we realized that it was uh a high
quality property
i think the um
i think the epiphany comes when you
realize that it is
it's the dominant digital property
network and digital property is better
than physical property in every way
conceivable
so if i if i theoretically designed
digital property
i want to store a billion dollars i want
to i want to hold it in the palm of my
hand move it at the speed of light
vibrate it a million times a second i
want it to last forever i want immortal
indestructible
infinite all-powerful
programmable
energy
right matter is energy
energy is matter
i can convert energy i could take a
billion dollars and turn into a building
i could in theory turn a building back
into a billion dollars i can buy a
billion dollars worth of electricity i
could buy a billion dollars worth of
guns
whatever it is you want to do right that
you know money is ultimately monetary
energy and you can convert it into any
kind of product or service or property
it's the apex
once you realize that bitcoin is digital
property or digital money or digital
energy
all of these things
then it becomes clear that everything
else you could possibly own is inferior
to that
right you would really never want to own
anything other than
pure digital energy
right like what why do you want to own a
building right
the only reason you want to own a
building is
you're going to freeze to death
if you didn't have something to come in
from the cold too right like you would
own a building to live in because
otherwise you're going to freeze to
death okay that's a good reason but with
all your discretionary energy beyond
that if you chose to own a 50-story
skyscraper in manhattan
is that as good as digital no because
the mayor of manhattan can seize your
building by eminent domain
if you're thinking you're going to rent
the building out
you know the politician can tell you
that you're not allowed to evict any of
your tenants even they don't pay you
right so
the property in the physical realm can
be impaired by any political
jurisdiction
anyone anyone with jurisdiction over the
property and that means
that means the neighborhood uh
review board right the neighborhood
building committee can tell you you
can't put an awning in front of your
building
the mayor the governor
every every regulator osha
you know
environmental review boards the congress
the senate the white house
everybody in in that physical
domain can impair the value of your
property
so
not only that
it's going to be impaired the second is
it's going to be taxed
right because when they decide to tax
your building you can't move your
building
and the third is the building is not
appealing to anybody else in the
universe like if i'm a billionaire in
beijing why would i want a skyscraper in
manhattan if it's if it's illegal for me
to travel to manhattan why would i want
to pay for that thing
so if you have a billion dollars of
property in manhattan it's not it's not
fungible and it's not desirable
everywhere else on earth
what i want is something that is
universally desirable through all space
time
how desirable will your building be in
500 years
right
buildings
not right and so there's another
interesting dynamic here with physical
property there's a maintenance cost
the cost of maintenance is the
theoretical investment every year you
have to make in order to preserve the
property value
you know if you ever own a boat
you know what that is stop investing in
the boat the boat sinks if you own a
building like what's the useful life of
a building 40 years 80 years 100 years
show me a building in manhattan that's
still good 200 years later
still desirable
so
property
property in the physical domain
doesn't hold its value through time
and it doesn't hold its value through
space
and it's not fungible
right the rockefeller center is not the
same thing as a thousand acres in kansas
they're different things the rockefeller
center is not even the same thing as
another big building in manhattan
whereas a bitcoin is the same as a
bitcoin
and we're back to your issue like where
do you get rid of volatility one bitcoin
equals one bitcoin and it means the same
thing
whether or not what is one bitcoin 121
millionth of all the energy in the
network
and uh
what is it going to be in a thousand
years
121 millionth of all the energy in the
network
okay
who's that interesting to
everybody
that joins the network
who can join the network
it's open
permissionless anybody
on earth can join the network
okay so is that everybody well not
everybody because some people haven't
joined the network
but
it is more inclusive than any other
thing
any other property network
a building in manhattan is interesting
to people that do business in manhattan
land in the us is interesting to people
that can traverse or do business in the
us
picasso
is interesting property to people who
appreciate picassos
right i mean presumably
a lot of people do but not everyone does
right so if you look at all the other
things you can own gold gold has value
to people that value gold
okay art
metals commodities
bullets bullets have value to people
that want to fire the bullets but if the
bullet doesn't actually fit in your gun
then it's pretty much useless to you
it's like a rock
very you know there's a certain bullet
you want certain bullet you don't want
so
why bitcoin
well bitcoin is the most universally
desirable
property
in space and time
it's the property with the lowest
maintenance cost
you can put a billion dollars of bitcoin
in coal storage and you don't have to
pay two percent a year to maintain it or
five percent a year or ten percent a
year
the maintenance cost on a boat is ten
percent a year the maintenance cost on a
building is three percent a year
the maintenance cost on fill in the
blank you know
pay to store your gold pay to store your
artwork pay to store your
whatever it is there's a cost
you own a company well there's a cost to
own a company you actually get diluted
by the share by the ceo or the executive
team when they issue stock options
you know if the company didn't have any
employees
right and didn't have any cost then
maybe there wouldn't be as much
maintenance but you know what do you
call a company that has no employees and
no maintenance costs well
bitcoin like
it becomes something else
so i think that when you embrace bitcoin
as your property strategy
you can get away from the maintenance
cost
the likelihood is going to be impaired
decreases exponentially
uh the l it's a lot harder to seize a
billion dollars of bitcoin than it is to
seize a billion dollars of land or a
billion of art or a billion of gold or a
billion of a building or a building of
stock
exponentially harder
if i had uh if i have a billion dollars
in a bank it's easy to seize a billion
in a bank
if i wanted to take all the money uh
from everybody in argentina
i could do it overnight if it was
sitting in cash or credit but if i
wanted to seize all the money from
everybody in argentina and they all used
bitcoin and held their own keys i would
have to incarcerate
70 million people for 90 days
and i'd have to sweat it out of them
so how hard is it
to jail
70 million people for three months and
how many people do i need to do that
very difficult a thousand times harder a
million times higher
10 million times probably 10 million to
100 million times harder
to seize the asset than it is to seize
cash or credit or securities
seizing companies and seizing buildings
is easy right the cubans seized all the
all the buildings right everybody lost
their private property in cuba and
castro took over that's simple
it's easy to nationalize an oil company
it's easy to seize all the gold right we
know how to do that
it's very difficult
to see these passwords in people's heads
so
so i look at bitcoin and i think well
it's it's a universal property it'll
last forever it's very hard to seize
it's very hard to tax
it's uh it's easy to move
and that makes it universally appealing
because on the day you wake up and you
find that it's uh illegal to own bitcoin
in your country
you can either take it with you to
another country
try taking a billion dollars of gold to
another country with you try taking a
billion dollars a building on the
country so you can either take it with
you or
you can send it
somewhere
or you can sell it
and so the ability to send it
to take it or to
to keep it or to sell it all those are
three rights
that you sacrifice when you buy a house
or a building or land or securities or
credit
or cash
you don't have those right or art or
collectibles
or sports teams right whatever it is you
think you have
you don't have property rights with
those things
and ultimately the idea of bitcoin is
nothing is is an elegant
121 millionth
of all of the value on the network for
as long as the network may
last and
there's nothing more stable
nothing more stable nothing more
predictable in the entire financial
universe than that
right that is that is the single most
stable
uh
you know
body in the entire financial universe if
you're looking for something to revolve
around there's nothing more stable
so
to me bitcoin is or has the potential to
be
the most useful
asset for meeting the coincidence of
wants of the most people
and it would follow to my mind that
bitcoin
actually
it doesn't
predict the future but it can alleviate
future uncertainty for the most people
on the planet which which to me means
that
they can accumulate property they have
the freedom to because of this
technology
i was wondering what what you thought
from a humanitarian standpoint
we can talk about el salvador i i think
yeah i think it naturally follows right
digital energy digital property digital
money is the is the greatest
utilitarian
asset
the greatest utilitarian value or the
greatest utilitarian asset on the
greatest utilitarian network
in the world in the history of the world
um
and uh
that means for eight billion people
right it it offers
the possibility of economic empowerment
i think
if you want to give if you want to give
joy to 8 billion people
you need digital music
and if you want to give education or
or enlightenment to 8 billion people you
need digital books or digital education
and if you want to give wealth to 8
billion people you need digital property
digital money
right
and um
there is no other
uh there's nothing else that offers that
promise right
the reason bitcoin's powerful is because
at the end of the day
you can put trillions and trillions of
dollars of energy on the network and you
can distribute it
over something like the lightning
network to eight billion mobile devices
and the and the mobile devices cost
fifty dollars
so the ability to give
uh economic energy to 8 billion people
on a 50 device
and do it with integrity and do it with
no friction
right like you're when you're moving
stuff with a lightning network you're
moving it for one satoshi
so it's friction free
speed of light
at any scale 37.37
000.37 million dollars
you know at any frequency
right like i wanna i wanna vibrate
something right as tesla tesla's point
about understand frequency if i have a
billion dollars of gold i put it in a
volt the frequency is like once every 10
years
that's the velocity of the money
if i have a billion dollars and i put in
the fiat currency and move it over the
visa rails
and the fed wire
then it takes one to two months to move
it every time i if i make a charge
transaction before final settlement you
know it's gonna be 30 days before you
know that you're not going to get clawed
back in another 15 days or something so
so 45 to 60 days after i pay you for
something you can move it so you're
talking about velocity of six per year
annual velocity six per year
i put the same money on on the bitcoin
lightning network and the velocity is
six
per minute say
six per second six per hour right you're
talking about
uh
a velocity which is orders of magnitude
higher and then of course the cost is
the visa network is two percent two and
a half percent friction
cost to move a billion dollars of
transactions
25 million dollars
the cost to move a billion on the
bitcoin network 68 cents
the cost to move that on the lightning
network if you break it into like
a hundred thousand transactions is get a
hundred thousand satoshis
right so there's nothing comparable
right
it's a revolutionary transaction network
and it's also a revolutionary
uh monetary network
both at the same time it's like kind of
dual revolutions
because you know in one in one case you
can
distribute economic energy
to billions and billions of people
billions of times an hour
and that
is something of wonder
and in the other case you can store a
billion dollars of energy in a battery
for a hundred years
and still have the energy
and we don't have
any other
credit or cash
or asset instrument or property
instrument
where you could store a billion dollars
of economic energy for a hundred years
without dissipating it
and just a question of
how fast right in gold you dissipate
ninety percent of it in a hundred years
and
fiat like us dollars you dissipate 98
percent 99 and 100 years
in electricity like
literal electrical energy
you dissipate 100 no one can store that
much electrical energy for a hundred
years you just paid it all it's all gone
right even we even ran into this issue
with uh oil like chemical energy or
natural gas
they had this situation last year where
they're pumping oil on the ground and
the oil price went negative
because there's nowhere to store the oil
right like once you run out of
containers or or tanks to store the oil
you got to pour it
on the ground
or into the ocean you can't store it so
so people
and and we run the same issues with
natural gas and and the like every
single form of energy or form of of um
property is challenging
to move to store
over time
and bitcoin solves that problem so
you wanna
you wanna empower eight billion people
you need a monetary network
that that can reach all of them at an
economic
cost and i think
lightning
on top of bitcoin and or
there's other layer three apps right i
mean you can do
centralized solutions like square cash
app or something like that and they also
have
exponentially decreasing transaction
costs
uh that you get
by accepting counterparty risk but if
you accept the central bitcoin bank
and you make google or apple or facebook
or square or paypal that bitcoin bank
you can still move a billion
transactions an hour
almost frictionless and so
so that bitcoin offers the promise of
super con
monetary super conducting like is it's
like
in a superconducting network when you
get the temperature low enough level
there's no friction anymore and you can
do some pretty amazing things
that's what we have
in bitcoin
or maybe call it it's like
weightlessness if i actually took you
into a weightless orbit and i can all of
a sudden push a million pounds with a
finger
interesting things happen
and i i think that's what we have here
we it's it's a major breakthrough
and i think of it as
i think it is the next logical
evolution of energy electrical engine
electrical energy was a big deal when we
had mechanical energy
we had to put uh you know a mill was
built around a turbine because i'm
running water through the mill and every
machine has to run off of that turbine
and if and then we got to electrical
energy and you didn't have to build it
around the turbine anymore you could
spread out the plant across 18 acres
because you can move electricity
up and down in multiple dimensions and
in space
but with digital energy
you know i i'm not limited to a plant i
can move the energy through time and
space
a million times more efficiently
so the kinds of structures
that you could build and the kind of
things you could do
are now
exponentially
exponentially more efficient
yeah it seems to me like you pointed out
that um a lot of centralized uh forms of
energy you know
until we found a use for it oil on a
plot of land uh would depreciate its
value for most of human history
um
so
to my mind we've solved the problem of
kind of monetary entropy by
decentralizing
the whole system and keeping it
moving through through proof of work um
uh to continue to make bitcoin the
strongest
asset um
but what does the transition look like
to make it into something like the
strongest currency we've got the us
dollar dominance as a currency how does
bitcoin
transition
do you think it will
i think bitcoin as the network is going
to continue to grow and it's going to
demonetize other assets
and that the assets it's going to
demonetize will be a function of the
cultures that it's within so for example
in a culture
where you have hyperinflation and the
government collapses
it's going to demonetize the currency
because everybody desperately needs a
currency and there isn't an alternative
um
in a culture where people uh
people feel
it's unsafe to own property
like for example if you had weak
property rights
and you felt like the government was
going to seize your house or seize your
land or you couldn't own land
maybe it's illegal to own land then
bitcoin's going to demonetize the
property
like if you have a million dollars
you're not going to invest it and land
if you don't trust your property rights
for example like
i wouldn't be comfortable making an
investment in apartment building in a
city that has shown itself willing to
strip landlords of their rights right
right so you're holding an apartment
building you can't you can't charge your
your uh tenants to live in the apartment
building nor can you evict them
okay what's the what's the logical value
of the building does it go up or does it
go down in that circumstance and if i
have if i have discretionary cash am i
going to reinvest it in more apartment
buildings or not
and i think the answer is
wherever we see property impaired the
monetary energy and the property is
going to flow to an alternative which is
better so in the u.s
i think that that in the us people are
comfortable with the us dollar and what
they're not comfortable with or less
comfortable with is maybe
uh risky stocks
or or risky property investments or say
gold
things like that and so it's logical
that bitcoin strips
the monetary premium from commodities
securities indexes
credit like like for example i got a
million dollars and i could invest it in
30-year t-bills yielding 1.6 percent
or i could buy bitcoin well
you know what's going to happen there is
i
my company had a lot of that right we
we had
we would normally put 90 percent of our
treasury into sovereign debt
and only 50 million of it or 10 of it
was sitting in cash
so
what we did is we demonetized the
sovereign debt for the most part and we
rolled into bitcoin so i think in in the
developed world in europe and the us i
think that that bitcoin is going to
demonetize
uh debt
low grade debt or or low yielding debt
and credit it's going to demonetize
savings accounts but i mean it's
uh most people had already given up on
savings accounts by the time we got the
last year what they go to etfs
and so i think bitcoin actually grabs uh
monetary energy or capital from etfs
from commercial real estate
and from debt
in the developed world
i think in the uh in the developing
world
and you know in places like
iran even in china and north korea in in
lebanon in syria in iran and iraq and
afghanistan
lots of places like that well
you don't have a stable banking system
you're not even dollarized
your currency is much worse than that
right
so i think that
i think that uh what you're going to see
is that if there's
180 countries or something out there i
think that 15 or 20 of them keep their
currency privileges i think the bottom
100 are going to lose their currencies i
think they're going to dollarize first
everybody wants to but how do i
dollarize the best way to dollarize is
the el salvador strategy which is
i have a mobile application which has
got dollars and it's got bitcoin on the
lightning network
uh what you want is you want a currency
as a medium of exchange it's like a
stable value coin
stable versus all of the pricing of the
retailers
and that's like a dollar it's probably
the most stable thing in the universe
and then you want an asset which is an
appreciating
token
that will will hold its value over time
and that's bitcoin
and if you wanted to maximize your
utility you would
you kind of put 90 of your balance sheet
into the asset
into bitcoin
and then you put the last piece the
working capital or the checking account
into whatever is the currency
uh that most of the retailers that
you're surrounded with take so if i was
in japan
i'd be holding one month worth of yen
and if i was in italy i'd be holding one
month worth of euro and if i'm in the
u.s or a dollar economy i'm holding one
month worth of dollars
and then the rest i'm sweeping and to
enter my long-term asset portfolio or
property portfolio and my stock of
property is
you know i maybe i buy a property to
live in because it's a nice house and i
want to live in it for the rest of my
life and i can't rent it
maybe
then maybe i buy my trophy art or you
know maybe i buy the picture because i
love the picture or maybe i buy the car
or maybe i buy the boat or maybe i buy
the plane or something because i want to
fly in it float in it live in it
whatever i want to do
but all my discretionary
asset i would put into the highest
quality property which is of course
bitcoin
so generally i think
i think what you're going to see is um
100 trillion dollars worth of capital
flow
out of investment properties in the
developed world into bitcoin
and the currencies the euro the dollar
will get stronger like strong by
stronger i mean
i don't mean stronger in purchasing
power i mean
you'll probably see the dollar become a
currency used in el salvador and you'll
see it used in venezuela and you'll see
it spread to argentina
and why wouldn't you see it spread to
every country in africa
like name a currency in africa that you
would prefer to hold in your wallet
versus the dollar
none i think right is there a better
currency than the dollar in in africa
but but you know if i have
ten thousand dollars
i'm probably going to hold fifty dollars
in my currency wallet i'm gonna convert
the other
9950 into bitcoin
because
that's my checking account versus
savings account
and even then you know the best thing i
think
the ideal situation you want to get to
of all eventually is
i put 100
of my assets into bitcoin
and then i have a credit card slash
credit line which is drawn
against the which is converted into
local currency
and it is drawn against the bitcoin so i
have ten thousand dollars of bitcoin and
i want to spend 37
so
i spent 37
and now i owe 37
against
my quarter my 50 million satoshis
and i and i never really sell my bitcoin
i just generated debt against the
bitcoin
and this is
we're a little bit early here but
but if
if your expense ratio
is less than your expected appreciation
over time
that is to say if you expect bitcoin to
go up
ten percent a year and if you have
a million dollars in assets and your
expenses a year fifty 000 so your
expense ratio is 5 a year
and you expect bitcoin to appreciate it
10 a year if your expense ratio is less
than your expected appreciation over
time
you never have to sell anything ever you
can borrow against your assets from now
to the end of eternity
now it requires that you have uh a
bitcoin banking sector developed right
you have to have a credit line against
the bitcoin and we see that developing
in different ways around the world but
but ultimately that would be the ideal
situation you would want to have a you
would want to have a situation where
you're holding bitcoin and you're
drawing credit lines in the currencies
that exist
and i think what we'll see is the world
will reduce down to 10 currencies or
five the chinese currency the us dollar
the euro
right the only way currency can exist is
for the government to stay viable
and uh you know there's no afghan
currency right now right i mean it's not
going to be one of those so if you're
spending anything what are you going to
be spending right it'll probably
dollarize
if it isn't it's already dollarized
right
so
i think that that what we see is a
collapse of currencies to a few
and i think you see the collapse of
properties to a few
right like for example
there's a hundred thousand buildings in
the us you can buy for the cost of one
bitcoin
or you can buy bitcoin
which of the two is the easier decision
so presumably it's like
a lot of things that are manufactured as
stores of value a security a reit
a bond it's like
why do i need all that stuff if i can
just buy bitcoin so
i think that uh
i think
how will it develop it'll develop at
different rates organically in different
countries
in different markets based upon the
culture based upon the law
based upon
you know the the circumstances of the
people and based on crises
and uh
and based on common sense
right you're in argentina um do you feel
safe in argentina you have a million
dollars do you want to own a million
dollars worth of company in argentina a
ranch a building a gold a boat
land or do you want to own the currency
or do you want to own the bitcoin
right if if you're thinking you're going
to flee the country
everything i named is worthless except
for the bitcoin
when i had money in argentina and i was
trapped there i was like well can i buy
a boat with it it's like i either buy
gold i can't get that out of the country
i buy a yacht i can float that out of
the country but that was before i knew
about bitcoin so today if you ask me the
question i'd be like
i'd say buy bitcoin it's kind of but
that's because i'm leaving but on the
other hand if you're living in texas
and you like texas
you might feel like it's okay to own
a hundred acres in texas maybe you think
you feel safe in texas
and you have a gun
right and you have some horses and you
have a tractor or a truck or a jeep
you don't need to smuggle the gun the
jeep and the horses across the border
tomorrow so you can own that property
and you feel like well texas is not
going to impair the value of my land so
i guess i'm okay there
so i i feel like the circumstances of
the individual and common sense will
dictate
your property distributions
but the apex property is always bitcoin
and in my opinion which is is pretty
well known is
if you had 10 million dollars in us
dollars converted to bitcoin and if you
wanted to buy anything you're best not
to sell the bitcoin your best to borrow
against the bitcoin
is
if if the volatility of bitcoin is going
to be plus or minus 80
then
keep your loan to value at 10 you're
safe
and if you if you if you're reasonably
certain that bitcoin is going to
appreciate it 20 a year
and if you can keep your expenses at
five percent a year
and if the volatility is not going to
cause a max drawdown of more than eighty
percent a year or fifty percent you
figure out what the number is once you
figure out those three calculations you
can get to the point where you decide
i'm just going to hold my assets
i'm going to let my asset appreciate i'm
going to fund my living expenses
with uh debt if i want to buy something
another asset
that i think is an asset i might still
want to borrow against my bitcoin to buy
the other asset
i don't if you actually sell your
bitcoin to buy an asset that's a
diversification
and you could diversify because you want
to diversify that's a personal decision
but if you've got an asset going up 130
a year
you know and you said to me mike name
something else that you think will go up
130 a year that i can diversify into
the answers i don't have anything right
like if you said to me okay well i got
to split my money 50 50. half goes into
bitcoin what's the other half
i don't know i guess a dive a portfolio
of big tech stocks maybe
maybe the nasdaq maybe maybe a
combination of apple and amazon and
facebook and google you buy some
wickedly cool technology
maybe
or you just take a very s if you want to
be very conservative it's like i just
buy a house that i expect to live in the
rest of my life because i know i'm going
to get value from that because there's
value to me getting up in the morning
and being in my space
so that's rational but i i don't expect
a million dollar house to be worth a
billion dollars
in 20 years
but there are people that put a million
in bitcoin that will make a billion off
of it by holding it
and of course that it's a very simple
principle right which is your house in
texas isn't universally appealing to
everybody with money on earth and i
can't oscillate the house in texas a
million times a second on an iphone
so the problem is the velocity of the
asset is slower and the appeal of the
asset is slower and there's a
maintenance charge the the house leaks
you got to paint it
there's things you got to do to it
there's a property tax on it
so if you're looking for
you know a measure of energy
that's that's easiest to develop or
property you can develop on top of
then you want the most universally
desirable property that's hardest to
impair that's easiest to develop that
that
that can be utilized at the highest
frequency you know i have a hotel
if the hotel had every room booked
365 days a year i'm obviously squeezing
more revenue out of the hotel
but let's do a thought experiment
what if i had 100 rooms in the hotel and
every room is booked
every night 365 days a year and you're
charging by the hour
well that's interesting
now how many hours of the year how many
room hours are actually unoccupied in
the hotel even though the hotel is
theoretically booked every room night
even if a hundred people book every room
night in the hotel for 365 days they
have to leave the room
they leave to go to work
they leave to go out
you know to a bar
they leave to commute and and point of
fact the hotel that's fully booked is is
is empty two-thirds of the time
so if i really could book out the room
hour by hour
my revenues would
triple so you see where you where you
get now what if i could actually book
out the room hour by hour to anybody in
any city on earth what if i could
actually
move the hotel or teleport the hotel
every hour
well not only could i drive the
occupancy up by a factor of 10
i could also increase the pricing i
could move the hotel to the place in the
world that that you know the venice
venice for the venice film festival
or i can move it to wherever the super
bowl is
so if i could move the hotel to the
place where the room rates are the
highest by the hour
my utilization would go up my price per
hour would go up
what if my costs were fixed
well now if you think about it right the
profitability of a hotel running at 47
occupancy at standard rates in dallas
texas
is 10
the profitability of the hotel running
at 100 occupancy at standard rates goes
to 70 percent the profit of the hotel
running at 300 occupancy goes to 200
percent the profitability of the hotel
running at 300 occupancy at the highest
marginal rate you can get for a room
anywhere on earth at any point in time
is going to
3
000 percent or 30 000 percent and so
what did i just do i just dematerialized
the property and i and i moved it with a
frequency
which was unimaginable
that's what bitcoin is right
that's what happens when you
dematerialize property you have the
option to move it with a frequency which
is unimaginable to the highest marginal
use
right and when people get their heads
around that you realize that well do you
want to own a hotel in texas
no
do you want to own anything fixed in the
real world no
what do you want to own you want to own
the the apex property and cyber space
that's universally desirable to
everybody and then you want to loan it
out to them for the number of seconds
that they want to use it
and then snatch it back
at no cost or one satoshi
and that really is what's interesting
about bitcoin
and everything around it right i mean
all of the possibility to develop those
businesses and develop those
applications
so we don't we don't have them all now i
mean defy i just described d5 by the way
in a way i described you know defy on
lightning on bitcoin
with an intelligent you know exchange
hunting for a highest optimal use but
but you don't have to
you don't have to develop all those
businesses immediately to grasp the
potential all you got to do is figure
out that the potential is there the
incentive is there
you can do one of two things
you can either
build one of those businesses which is
hard
it's hard to build binance it's hard to
build an exchange it's hard to build
paypal it's hard to build fidelity
it's just hard
you got to deal with the regulatory
issues the technical issues the security
issues
or
the other thing you can do is you can
just own the bitcoin and wait
there's an intermediate you can own the
bitcoin and you can loan it out but that
means you have to basically pick the
counterparty you trust
so
maybe i get a 130 percent appreciation
by just waiting in cold storage
maybe i get
135 or 140 percent appreciate i get an
extra boost of 5
to 10
by loaning it out and trusting someone
else
or maybe i go and create my own coinbase
or create my own
fill in the blank
create opera create square create the
next great payment network of the next
great bank
yeah you do that
that's a different that's an endeavor
and maybe if you're really good and you
work really hard you'll create something
worth billions and billions of dollars
but that's a different thing that's
industry
so the way i look at it is
you know you have capital
you got to invest it
if i live 200 years ago if you go back x
post facto if i had a priori knowledge i
would go back and buy manhattan in 1900
all of it
why wouldn't you i
buy everything you can just buy the land
hold it keep it in the family
right that would be a good idea buy apex
property a hundred years before
everybody else has to move there and
wait that's what i would do then today
knowing what we know now
i would buy the apex property in
cyberspace
and the apex property in cyberspace is
bitcoin and i would just wait
and let let nature take its its its
course people are going to do everything
they can
to develop those applications those
businesses on top of digital property
and as they succeed
they're going to lock up the property
they're going to create more demand for
it they're going to drive up the price
of it and you're going to you're going
to benefit as a property holder
at any scale
right you have 37 bucks worth of it or
37 billion dollars worth of it that's
that's the option you didn't have in
manhattan you couldn't buy 37 worth of
dirt in manhattan you had to buy it one
block at a time and so
today if you want if you want to own
natural gas rights
or commodities or or commercial real
estate you got to buy into a reit
or you know something like that you have
to buy a security which gives you a
share of the thing
the beauty of bitcoin is you don't have
to buy the security if you want you can
buy the underlying property and a
pristine unit 37 million satoshi's and
it is it has the same
security
and the same financial appreciation
potential as if you bought as much as we
bought
de-materialized
property and money through bitcoin
is by open sourcing and open sourcing
most of the components of it so so
what i'm wondering is
as a as a patent holder
yourself
what do you think about the free flow of
ideas you think it's enough positive for
society to have
patents on things or is it more of a
business opportunity
um i
think that the only reason to uh to
pursue a patent
in my opinion and this is this is
my opinion over the course of a 30-year
career is the only reason you get a
patent is defensively so you can defend
yourself against patent trolls when they
sue you
and i've used it over and over again
like there are people with one patent
and they just sue for a living it's like
someone finds out that use mathematics
on a phone or you use the color green in
your interface
and they show up saying that they use
math and the color green and your
software and they want 10 percent of
your company
and then you have to defend yourself and
it turns out in our legal system the the
best way to defend yourself is to knock
out their patent by having a prior claim
or a different related patent and so
so defensive portfolios of patents make
sense
am i a fan of patents not really
no if i could wave my hand i would
eliminate all patents because i think
the restraints of trade and i don't
really think that
the society is served by by people
laying claim to the right
you know to send messages over the air
or or to add numbers on a screen
and and ultimately all these patents
boil down to
i have an idea to do something
well yeah so like everybody in the human
race has ideas and sometimes people have
the same idea twice
so why should you be able to prevent
every other human from starting a fire
or
my idea was start a fire just before it
starts raining and pretty soon someone's
trying to tell you you got to freeze the
death because you want to start a fire
before it rains
i i'm not a big fan of them
uh
you know
and so if we got rid of them all the
world be a better place but in a world
where we can't get rid of them then
accumulating them to defend
sovereignty is useful
and uh putting together like the the
crypto patents uh
as part of coppa the copa initiative is
primarily defensive one it's a useful
thing to do
to defend it
i do think the open network is obviously
much more powerful especially in this
context and
i think the closed network is hopeless
right i mean first of all it's
you can't have a centralized money
i mean because you can't establish it as
being anything other than a security
right every centralized system is going
to pass the howie test it's going to be
a common enterprise and pursuit of
profit
and if that's the case
then you lose your moral standing
like
you can't as a senator or congressman or
a mayor or governor or president you
can't actually promote a security
if the senator said i think that apple
stock is a better store of value than
the us dollar that's a violation of
house ethics rules
like that's just wrong in so many
different ways that you can't imagine
how wrong that is and so
so i think that um that things that are
patented and to any degree centralized
they don't serve as a universal
medium of exchange or a universal store
of value or universal unit of account
right they're not money they can't be
money
and uh if you're trying to create
digital energy
the whole idea is
i want to be able to move my energy
between 8 billion people
across every political jurisdiction
across 100 million corporations on a
universal open protocol
and so
if you if you attempt to constrain or
license the protocol
right it's
it doesn't it's no longer a universal
language of energy anymore
i mean imagine if if you know half the
people in the world weren't able to use
the word for
like
how does anything work if you're not
allowed to use the word for or the
number four right because someone's got
a patent on four
so the answer is it doesn't work as a
protocol you'll never install
a universal
monetary protocol unless it's open
for so many obvious reasons
and and it will never be successful
right in information is by definition
copyable i mean this
this is everything
including bitcoin private keys i mean
it's
kind of like
the one trade-off with bitcoin is the
burden of responsibility falls on the
user to protect
one piece of information
and so what i'm wondering is
what do you think about a future
this future where we're lending bitcoin
and what do you think about banks
co-opting
the custody of bitcoin from the majority
of people who aren't going to put in the
thousand hours to learn how to do it
successfully
i think there's um
a very vibrant
dynamically
evolving market
um
of
bitcoin applications
that are mutating faster than we can
speak or describe them
in every jurisdiction it's like like a
petri dish of life
like for example
there's a use case of bitcoin which is
i'm going to use it and i'm going to use
a hardware wallet and place a certain
amount in coal storage
okay and there's a lot of people that
have mastered that and that's a good
thing but even the people that have
mastered that would admit that there's
another use case which is the chivo
application in el salvador
right that is a downloadable you know
wallet that's that's moving around
bitcoin on the lightning network
and it's riskier
right you've got kyc involved so it's
not as private
and it's riskier because you you know
you could lose your mobile phone
uh
but it's faster
and then you've got a third application
which is like strike or
a third-party party lightning wallet
which is and there are some
moon or breeze
they're not
kyc they're not they're non-custodial
and that's a third application and
that's
did that benefit from
the existence of the shiva wallet sure
it does
the demand for the for those wallets
will go up because the civil wallet goes
up and and then in the defense of of the
president of el salvador kind of hard to
give 30 worth of bitcoin to every
citizen unless you do some kind of kyc
citizenship check right
otherwise one citizen claims it 10
million times right so
and everybody else gets nothing
so
so there's an application
that's different there
now
there's a fourth application right what
what if you're
a company a corporation is going to take
the view that they don't want to have a
single individual they'll want to have a
multi-signature
relationship
when it comes to custody of their
bitcoin and they'll have more
sophisticated
uh custodial
rules
a government
would be even different if if you were a
citizen of of a of a
a city
and the city
put a billion dollars of bitcoin on its
balance sheet would you want the mayor
to carry the keys around and by the way
if you were the mayor would you want
people to know that you actually have
the keys i mean wouldn't you be
concerned about getting kidnapped and
having your fingers ripped off one at a
time or having your
a family member kidnapped so in that
particular case they're going to
actually be interested in a different
thing right like
like so that's another application and
that's multi-signature application but
then who should be signing it and in
some cases not even multi-sig across
people it's multi-sig across
organizations like
three agencies
or three corporations or auditors might
need to have some involvement
so
i i'm not threatened by the entry of
banks
i think that um
they're all just different
manifestations of bitcoin bitcoin is
property
and you can build things on top of it
one thing you can build on top of it is
uh is a checking account and a savings
account you know we need square and
paypal to offer their mobile apps on top
of it but we also could use an etf
for example
uh there are organizations in our
society i mean if i'm an institutional
investor i have two billion dollars it
took me 30 years to raise the 2 billion
dollars
the the money's raised from fireman's
pension funds and unions
and other and other organizations and
foundations the rockefeller foundation
and they gave me the money and they gave
it to me 15 years ago
and i have the ability to buy securities
with it but i don't have the ability to
buy property with it or i don't have the
ability to buy bitcoin with it
and if i wanted to buy bitcoin
i would have to convince a board of
directors with 28 people on it that
meets once every six months and then i
would have to convince my outside
auditors and i'd have to change the law
in the state of
utah and then i would have to go back to
all of my limited partners and explain
to them and then i'd have to actually
educate 252 people and my outside
auditors and after i did that i go
through a one-year process to establish
my relationship with the bitcoin
exchange then i have to figure out how
we're going to custody it and that would
take me about oh five years and i'd
probably fail
99 of the time
or
i could punch a button and buy 27
million dollars worth of the bitcoin etf
and i could do that in 30 seconds
now
is there a role for an etf
sure there is for the you know you can
say well you know that part you know the
person that invests the firemen's fund
ought to actually hold their own keys
well if you were a retired fireman
and you had your entire pension
and someone said there's one dude we
hired last week and he has two billion
dollars of your money and he's got the
keys and he just disappeared
you might not take kindly to that right
so
it's not always the case that the right
answer is
you know
cold storage hardware wallet
self-custody
it depends upon who you are
and we can't let the perfect be the
enemy of the good
i would say there's probably a there's
probably a thousand different
instantiations in fact more than that
for example the etf is a way to get
bitcoin exposure
now you could say is that as good as
holding the bitcoin no is it is it
better than holding an etf that's
invested in negative yielding sovereign
debt of italy
yes
my choice isn't the choice to own
bitcoin or or own the etf my choice is
to own the italian sovereign debt etf or
own the bitcoin etf that's my choice
so once you realize that you realize
that um
that what we want is we want traditional
banks to offer certain types of bitcoin
accounts we want the new mobile banks
like square and
paypal you're going to have the square
but
you'll have square that lets you hold
bitcoin and move it out of out of square
and move it on a cache tag but they
don't support lightning yet
but at some point square cache cache app
will support lightning they'll be better
when paypal supported bitcoin they
didn't support bitcoin withdrawals they
were worse
when they had bitcoin withdrawals
they're better when they add lightning
they'll be better still
right there's going to be then there's
going to be non-custodial wallets
they're better better right
you're going to have layers of but but
not but the guys in the hardware wall of
business say non-custodial
hot wallets on mobile phones aren't as
good
so i'm going to stack up layers of
bitcoin
and i can name probably
20 off the top of my head
you're gonna you know you can own a
piece of uh you can own a junk bond for
a microstrategy that yields six and
eight percent interest
is that as good as owning bitcoin no
is it better than owning a junk bond
that isn't backed by bitcoin that yields
two percent interest
yeah
you see so you can own a convert and
microstrategy
and that yields like whatever half a
percent interest
but it's backed by micro by bitcoin and
bitcoin goes up by a factor of 10 your
bond's gonna go up by a factor of five
is that better than owning bitcoin
no
is it better than owning another
convertible bond that's backed by some
other you know the space tourism or
something
maybe
right depends
so what you have is a universe of people
that can own certain types of securities
and certain types of properties by
charter
and then you have uh and then you have a
a universe of securities and properties
of bitcoin that are being offered as the
banking sector and the financial sector
evolves
when the sector evolves when we have a
bitcoin etf in the us billions and
billions of dollars will flow into
bitcoin that under no shape
under no circumstances would have found
their way into bitcoin otherwise
i
i know people i know a 70 year old guy
he's got a phone in his hand he might
have something like a paypal on it he
can do this he can go
two thousand dollars
bitcoin that's what he can do
if you go back to him and say you know i
need you to like listen to 500 hours of
videos and learn to go through a 97 step
process and buy these 14 things
like
i can't do it right
so so it's literally like i cannot do it
in theory it would be nice if we all had
our own gun and our own shack on our own
ranch with our own livestock and we had
we could grow our own food and we could
ride our horses we can go off the grid
et cetera but
it gets real when you gotta perform your
own appendectomy
and
at that point you start thinking maybe
this living off the grid thing wasn't
you know
such a good idea
right and and so i i think with um
with bitcoin
you've got different services in every
country in every market
and and what's legally possible and
possible from a regulatory point of view
and what's technically possible and
what's practical
is changing all the time
i happen to i happen to think that
the best outcome is the greatest
diversity of market opportunities
because i i'm not smart enough to know
the one right answer
and i i do think that
if you look at uh if you look at
consumers there's a different solution
for different types of individuals
if you look at
my 83 year old dad right he's not going
to buy anything with the mobile app
but he might
sell his stock portfolio and put it into
a bitcoin etf if he could do that with
right so individuals
you know they have their own needs
corporations are different
some companies can buy bitcoin some
companies some companies for example
would want a treasury service from
fidelity that gave them three percent
yield where they could just buy 10
million dollars worth of it on a phone
call and they don't want to custody it
and right now their choice is hold cash
or tell jp morgan or bank of america sit
a group to put it in
that they the treasurers they just sweep
billions of dollars into short dated
sovereign debt portfolios
buy me a 157 million dollars worth of uh
90 day government debt thank you click
right they need something like a
treasury type service backed by bitcoin
if you go to institutions
every institution's got a different
charter some people by law they can do
convertible debt arbitrage if you give
them a convertible debt instrument they
can buy it if you don't they can't it's
i mean
i mean it's not really an issue of do
they want to they can't the guy that's
sitting with you can talk with you for
five minutes punch a button and buy 500
million dollars worth of the security
and you could talk to him for 10 000
hours and he can't buy
the underlying bitcoin and take personal
custody of it just can't
so all those institutions are different
and then
stuff gets really real when you get to
municipal
state and federal governments
under what circumstances do you want
what if the
what if jerome powell said tomorrow
we decided to buy a hundred billion
dollars of bitcoin
how do you feel about that and then how
would you like him to do that
how should he go about that
do you want jerome powell to walk around
with the keys like
what you know you want the 12 members of
the federal reserve board i mean who do
you really trust
what if we elect a new president and the
old one just won't give up the money
like
like what if what if my family just
keeps the 100 billion right like so
when you get in the political domain
now it's different
so i tend to think there's a place for
all those things and there's some that
will be more successful than others
and there's you know
some bitcoin banks will fail right some
bitcoin exchanges are crooked sometimes
they have security issues sometimes that
you know somebody steals all the bitcoin
right it's happened
it will happen again
right the market needs to squeeze out
the weak offerings
even you know even hardware wallets
there are some that are better than
others right software wallets some are
better than others non-custodial
custodial they're not all equal they're
not all perfect
right so
i i think that the competition should
continue
i think the beauty of the open network
is the protocols are out there
when apple computer decides to build
their own apple pay bitcoin offering
they have access to the protocols will
they do better than square will they do
better than paypal well they do better
than google i don't know here's what i
know they should be punished if they
don't
right
the money the capital should go away
from the people that do a poor job
to the people that do the best job who
gets to make the decision
the people with the capital should make
the decision
i i shouldn't be calling if i tweeted
you take all your money and put it in
this software wallet you would you would
think it's like it's a little bit
offensive
so let the people with the money make
the decision and uh
give them a give them an entire universe
of options
some are going to make a mistake some
are going to lose their keys
someone lose their phone some exchanges
are gonna get hacked right it's like
that's life
in the universe
that which does not kill us makes us
stronger
some stuff kills us
that still makes us stronger the part of
the herd that doesn't die is the
stronger part of the herd
and that's that's darwinian
natural selection
you know the all the alternatives are
are less desirable in my opinion
yeah
it seems to me bitcoin is is good at
promoting its own production much like
you know jeans
um
which brings me to probably my last
question what what if any are the the
predator
dynamics of bitcoin and how are they
different from those of you know the
potentially infinite
um asset and
fiat currency
i think there's um
there's a very uh
dynamic competitive market in bitcoin
mining
on the security side of the network
and i think there's a very dynamic
competitive market in uh bitcoin and the
exchanges
and i think there's a dynamic
competitive market in the applications
so call them the banks
or the financial application itself and
all three of those are very darwinian to
the benefit of the network
so for example
you know like
if i take an s19 miner and 30 megawatts
of energy i can create an extra hash
it took me 150 megawatts of energy to
create an axa hash with an s9 miner
if you take the generation before that
you're talking about 500 megawatts of
energy
so
if i'm sitting on mining equipment after
six to eight years
i'm obsolete
and my break even
the break-even point for the s19 is 40
cents
45 cents a kilowatt hour the break-even
point for the s9 is 9 cents a kilowatt
hour the break-even point for the
previous generation is 2 cents a
kilowatt hour
what's happening is the bitcoin mining
network is upgrading its technology
and squeezing off the grid
all of the obsolete or the third
generation the older technology
um if you can't upgrade if you don't
have the money to buy the new generation
technology you got to pay the price with
energy and at some point you need 50 x
as much energy you can't afford to pay
the price you're you're getting squeezed
out no matter what
um
if you can't get the bitcoin mining
equipment vendor to sell to you
like what a bit main won't sell to me
okay while you're still losing
it's a competition to maintain the trust
of the vendor
you know there's a competition at the
hardware layer if you don't like the
fact that bitmain controls most of the
market you go to another vendor and you
get them to manufacture a mining rig
which is comparable okay so
we're continually creating new hash
power that's competitive
we're looking for cheaper sources of
energy that's competitive
if you trusted a free source of energy
in china and the government cut you off
well you lost that was a bad decision
and so you're looking for political
support
if the energy provider isn't trustworthy
if they pull the rug out from under you
you're you know
you're out of luck you're lost
if the politicians pull their political
support you're lost
if you can't upgrade your hardware
you're lost if you engineer your mining
facility poorly and you don't do the
right heat dissipation you burn out your
rigs you're lost
if you can't raise capital in order to
buy new mining equipment you're lost
if you don't have the trust of the
capital markets right
marathon and riot are publicly trading
they can go and they can raise equity in
debt if you can't go public you're a
disadvantage
if you're in a market where there are no
capital markets the chinese can't take
their chinese mining companies public
their disadvantage
and so
on the mining side there's a comp
there's a competition for capital
there's a competition to engineer mining
facilities there's competition to design
semiconductors
shaw 256 mining rigs there's a
competition to operate
by the way you can't get ripped off by
your employees either right
all of these things there's a
competition to find uh supported
political jurisdictions
that's never-ending
what's the result on bitcoin uh bitcoin
gets more secure and more robust and
more more anti-fragile
it's not inflationary right because the
protocol is locked in
the only result is the network
decentralizes or like
would bitcoin be at risk if all the
mining was in one place and one
politician could turn it off at the same
time with the snap of a finger yes
so
what happens when someone does that on a
small part of the network it teaches
everybody else and they decentralize and
they're looking for places if i'm going
to invest 500 million dollars in bitcoin
mining don't you think i'm going to pick
a jurisdiction where they're not likely
to outlaw me in the next decade
there's a reason i might want to go to
texas and not go to say new york
or california
right i'm going to go find a supportive
jurisdiction
so the mining network is has got a very
healthy uh competitive dynamic across
five different types of capital
engineering capital you know
semiconductor technical capital
political capital
financial capital you know uh and even
human capital
so that's going on and that's good to
the entire network
um
on the exchange side
well you see that in process right now
all of the migration you know coinbase
is competing with binance competing with
ftx competing with square competing with
paypal
what's going to happen do i want a
crypto exchange a bitcoin only exchange
do i want a bitcoin only non-custodial
custodial
do i want to have leverage or not
leverage well there's
legal issues there's there's technical
issues there's market driven issues
ultimately the competition is driving
more diversity and more choice and
people are going to migrate to the thing
they're most comfortable with
the other day i bought 30 worth of
bitcoin uh
you know i bought it on one application
and paid 69 cent fee and then i went and
i i tried uh strike
and i paid next to nothing
i thought that's kind of cool
okay so thank you jack mahlers we
appreciate that
competition makes us all better right
there's pressure and uh and that
pressure will continue
so um
when will that end that won't end
right i mean it was a it's a herculean
lift that el salvador managed to deliver
the chivo wallet in 90 days but there's
already people complaining about it you
know it's custodial and it's kyc'd and
they'll be in the next thing okay well
if if we roll forward to the next
generation every 90 days or every
six months you know that seems pretty
healthy to me
and uh we need that right because we can
never make we can never make the
exchanges too efficient we can never
make the wall it's too functional or too
secure we're going to continue with that
and the beauty is look we need square to
do what they're doing why because you
need a big company to actually compete
with
apple apple computer is not going to
enter the bitcoin space because they're
threatened by
a non-custodial wallet you know coming
out of south america
right
they're not going to compete they're not
going to enter the space for chivo
either but they will enter the space if
they see square and paypal
generating hundreds of billions of
dollars of market cap if you think that
square is going to take
500 million users off of apple pay
that will cause a response from a
facebook or a google or an apple
so it's useful to have that competition
going there because because we might
want apple to decide to buy a hundred
billion of bitcoin and to build bitcoin
into a billion iphones that might you
know create a secure element as a
hardware wallet on the iphone that would
be a useful thing
so that competition is useful in that
regime but on the other hand the
competition of of moon versus breeze
versus you know strike versus whatever i
mean that's useful too
non-custodial versus custodial lightning
only
and there's going to be a different
wallet in every single country you know
and you're going to have jurisdictions
they're going to have an impact
so
i think that's good and then i think the
third area we talked about
that i mentioned is just applications or
banking apps
like um
microstrategy has a convertible bond
there are hundreds of billions of
dollars of capital
that can buy convertible bonds
okay
is it good or is it bad well it's the
only bitcoin back convertible bond
there's only two convertible bonds in
the world that are backed by bitcoin and
we issued both of them
okay
so
then there's a junk bond backed by
bitcoin there's one of them in the world
we issued it
okay
um
there'll be etfs
there'll be other kinds of products
they all compete with each other
each one of them meets a different need
in the market
will what if someone else comes along
with the better bond okay well that's
good too
you know what if
if if coinbase turned around tomorrow
and decided to issue 20 billion dollars
worth of convertible bonds to buy
bitcoin
would i be upset
well you know like maybe it would make
the micro strategy bond less desirable
but other than making bitcoin more
desirable and then the bitcoin would
trade up and then microstrategy equity
would trade up and then the micro
strategy bond would trade up and so
the competition's probably a good thing
and if uh jp morgan and morgan stanley
and goldman sachs decided they wanted to
start to do this
you know that
like uh maybe that's a good thing for
everybody
so
i think ultimately in fact i won't say
maybe right the competition is good
all the the more the more options there
are for bitcoin securities the better it
is for bitcoin
the more options there are for bitcoin
wallets and bitcoin exchanges the better
it is for bitcoin
and the more competition in bitcoin
mining the better it is for bitcoin the
more bitcoin mining rig companies the
better is for bitcoin bitcoin wins no
matter what happens
having said all that
and this is what i say to entrepreneurs
if you have a bitcoin company you know
there's a 99 chance or a 99 failure rate
for most corporations over a long enough
period of time
right
there's a lot of
there there
there were hundreds and hundreds of
companies that wanted to be apple's
iphone
and how many companies wanted to be
instagram and how many companies wanted
to be facebook
you know and how many companies wanted
to be amazon
for amazon to win 15 000 retailers have
to lose
okay so
competition
is good for the underlying network it'll
be great for the protocol of bitcoin
it'll be great for the asset value of
bitcoin
it's not good for the competitor
like you're going to have to fight tooth
and nail you know with every iota of
your energy to succeed in whatever
market you choose to go into and if if
you're going to go into that market you
need to have a set of strategic assets
ideally
like for example fidelity has 22 million
customers and they've been selling
treasury services and funds to big
institutions for the past 50 years
can they offer a bitcoin fund sure
can they put bitcoin into their fixed
income
fund products yeah they have two
trillion dollars worth of that stuff
okay are they going to defeat square
cash up no
who's got more customers jack dorsey or
fidelity jack dorsey he's got more than
20 million
now jack dorsey's not competing against
fidelity he's competing against apple
and paypal
in a different way
and they've got their assets
so you but and so what's his advantage
he's more nimble than they are
and what's your advantage maybe you're
more nimble than the someone bigger than
you
and can you turn that into a compelling
sustainable advantage maybe
apple did it
google did it
yahoo came first
you can
are the odds in your favor no
what's the most rational strategy if
you're a competitor
take your entire balance sheet and
invest in bitcoin
and then borrow against your balance
sheet to fund your operations
right if you raised 100 million dollars
to build a new bitcoin software wallet i
would say take 100 million buy bitcoin
with it and now pay your payroll by
borrowing against the bitcoin and if you
succeed more power to you you'll be
worth
a lot more than
you know
100 million
20 bitcoin per million so you buy 2 000
bitcoin right
so you'll be worth 2 000 bitcoin if you
disinvest your treasury
i think bitcoins go to a million next
stop right so 2 000 times a million is
pretty good
nothing wrong with that
and if you're and if the business itself
works you'll be worth 4 000 bitcoin
but if you hold 100 million in cash
and the business doesn't work you'll be
worth nothing
or zero
right that that same logic holds for
bitcoin miners
right if you're mining bitcoin you never
want to sell any bitcoin and if you
raise money you want to buy bitcoin with
the money you raise and then you want to
borrow against the bitcoin to pay the
operating expenses
if you do that if if you believe in
bitcoin it's it's obvious
if you don't believe in bitcoin
maybe you shouldn't be in the business
like if you're gonna look me in the face
and if you don't think bitcoins going to
a million dollars a coin and then 10
million dollars a coin
i don't think you should be a bitcoin
miner i don't think you should be a
bitcoin exchange i don't think you
should be a bitcoin wallet i don't think
you should i just don't think you should
be you shouldn't be a pure play focused
in the business at all because you're
already you're already a loser you've
already decided you're going to lose
if you think
your assets going to zero it's hopeless
all these other things if you think it's
not going to zero
then rational
thinking is
the competition in the market is making
my bitcoin more valuable that's good but
the competition is making my existing
business less profitable that's bad
and if i'm a genius and i execute well
maybe i can stay ahead of everybody else
maybe
but while i'm doing that
every single free dollar i can raise i
should convert to bitcoin
because
there's many out of a hundred
possibilities there's 99 paths where you
fail and bitcoin succeeds
and there's one path where you fail or
you succeed in bitcoin succeeds
and
you know some people don't think bitcoin
is going to succeed but they're not
they're not with us right
you don't think bitcoin is going to
succeed go do something else you know
whatever with your life but don't
don't try to create a bitcoin business
any closing remarks for today michael
thoughts
my closing remark is i thought bitcoin
was a good idea in august of 2020.
there's every single month for the past
13 months there have been fundamental
developments in the space that have made
it a better idea
every single month every week i almost
see a new development that makes that
makes the network stronger
smarter
faster
harder
it makes it more anti-fragile it makes
it more like it becomes clearer and
clearer
that this is
the future of digital property this is
digital energy
this is the future of digital money
this is the solution to the the problems
of the world this is a macroeconomic
imperative for 500 trillion dollars
worth of capital this is a technical
imperative for everybody in the
technology industry
and the energy industry
and this is a moral imperative for
everybody on earth
right so
i've just become more convicted every
single week every single month that's
gone by there's not a single thing
that's happened the past 13 months
that i thought
caused me to think that the future was
riskier or less certain
i mean even even the china exodus right
which was probably the most brutal
event that we've seen it was a good
thing for the network and it
it removed the biggest existential
threats you know is china is bitcoin
going to be hijacked by the chinese
government
what about a 51 attack you know how
anti-fragile is the network
is bitcoin american or chinese
technology
after the china exodus it became clear
that bitcoin is
us technology this is good for the
western world
this is part of the western technology
stack this is google and apple and
amazon and facebook
and and bitcoin right this is
that so the worst thing that happened
was the best thing to happen everything
else has been a good thing to happen
it's like
you know you just you're watching every
shoe drop
companies adopting
banks adopting
politicians supporting
right the the negative fudd in the media
is just people noticing that bitcoin is
the most disruptive technology of the
decade
and and even the negative publicity is
positive publicity it's all just
marketing bitcoin
it's like if these people hate on it so
much why it must be really good
that they're so afraid of it
and
and where
you know how you have a shockwave
a shock wave forms when you move faster
than the uh than the air
if i move through the air faster than
then uh the air can
can flow around me
then i create a shock wave
uh i'm disrupting laminar flow and i'm
getting turbulence
because i'm going too fast
okay
bitcoin is creating turbulence
because it's going too fast
right when you see some uninformed
politician that critiques it it's
because they were asked to have an
opinion and they had 10 minutes to study
it and so they give an uninformed
opinion
when some billionaire investor says they
like gold better it's because they're
asked to have an opinion and they spent
30 years studying gold and they haven't
spent 30 hours or 300 hours or a
thousand hours studying bitcoin they had
30 minutes 60 minutes 15 minutes
a lot of people you know when these
editorials are written in the journal in
the new york times it's
i never seen anybody
ever say oh i spent a thousand hours
studying bitcoin let me break down my
problems with it
i never seen anybody say i spent 100
hours studying it let me tell you the
13 problems i have you know
there are no informed critiques
i have yet to see them there are
uninformed critiques and what is that
that's the same as your fighter jet
slamming into a wall of air faster than
the speed of sound and you get a shock
wave and you get turbulence and you get
heat
and you get sound and fury
and is that a bad thing
just means we're moving fast
right we're moving very fast and we're
getting noticed and everyone has to
notice it
right when you're asking the
spokesperson for the kremlin you know
for for
for putin whether or not russia is going
to adopt bitcoin as the national
currency
that's not when they say not yet or no
that's not
that's not a negative signal
that's a positive signal nobody asked
putin whether they're going to adopt
apple stock or gold or silver
or the giant stone coin of the yap
people
as currency in russia
right there's only one question they're
asking them
and they're asking them the question
because it's on the table and that's
indicative of the success of bitcoin
so
to summarize
i am more bullish than ever