Michael Saylor on How Bitcoin Infiltrates Corporate America
Real Vision · 2020-10-21 · 2h 01m · View on YouTube →
michael
great to get you on real vision you've
become
suddenly a legend in the crypto business
and
kind of a real thought leader for many
people and i just thought it would be
fascinating to get you on but before we
go down that kind of crypto journey
i'd love to hear a bit about your
background where you came from
and also micro strategies itself okay
um i'm an air force brat my father was
in the military i lived on air force
bases my entire life
so i got a scholarship from the united
states air force to go to mit
i went to mit and i and i was that
generation where i read
science fiction books i read them all a
big fan of robert heinlein i
decided i was going to be a rocket
scientist and i got an aeronautics and
astronautics degree
with a specialty in spaceship design
and while i was there i um
i stumbled across this school of
management uh
system dynamics uh the construction of
cons uh computer models to predict the
future
and uh i ended up getting a second
degree in science
and technology and society in the
history of science
so that that was formative because it
was all about paradigm shifts the
structure of scientific revolutions
and how did people decide to embrace
nuclear power or electricity
or petroleum and a lot of people think
that technology just
kind of is a modern thing but of course
and they think that technology companies
are a class
of investments and i'm always amused
when finance people talk to me about the
tech sector because they're only
it's kind of an ignorant statement
there's never been a successful
growth company that wasn't a technology
company once you understand technology
for the past hundred years
john d rockefeller was a tech company
you know general electric was a tech
company
craft and hershey's were tech companies
so um studying technology for the past
hundred two
three four hundred years and why people
do it that was interesting to me
i am thought i was going to be a fighter
pilot astronaut
right but uh so i learned fly in the air
force and in my senior year
reagan won the cold war they ramped down
the military cut it in half and i had a
macroeconomic event
combined with just a random
a random personal event that catapulted
me into business
the macroeconomic event was the end of
the cold war the drawdown
of um the united states military
uh and uh the united states had paid for
my education and i was like on the hook
to serve i thought i'd be in the
military ten years
and um my final
flight physical my senior year at mit
they diagnosed me with a benign heart
murmur
and that disqualified me from flying
jets
now by the way the hilarious part of the
story is
they kicked me out of uh the aviation
program
uh i was a little bit dejected and then
the next week they came and they said
you can join the air force reserve and
be a civilian
and i was going to pay three times as
much money as a civilian as i would have
made in the air force
so i thought well you just gave me a
free education and i get to like
not pay the money back by the way the
week before they said well if you don't
go in the military that's awol you go to
jail
okay so i went from you're going to be
in the military for a decade or you go
to jail to
ronald reagan is giving you the gift of
your freedom and by the way to make it
easier
if you want to be in the military you
have to wait two years
working a part-time job before we call
you up and then maybe we'll call you up
so i kind of got a kick out of the
military and then a doctor said you
can't fly
and i was kind of dejected and i thought
well this must be a sign
sorry for interrupting your video but i
have a very important message to share
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i don't think it's something you could
afford to be without
so i kind of got a kick out of the
military and then a doctor said you
can't fly
and i was kind of dejected and i thought
well this must be a sign from god i
should do something else
so i joined the air force reserve and i
left mit
i am i worked for about two years
and i was gonna go get a phd uh because
i had a very simple list i have you know
every
every red-blooded american male in the
80s had this list
rock star astronaut
fighter pod astronaut top gun right
obviously yeah
professor okay or ceo
so i tried my rockstar thing in high
school and then i realized
rock stars don't make any money or at
least
percent of musicians make like 20 bucks
for the game
i tried and i just can't play guitar i'm
just not coordinated enough to have to
give up
for one reason the other we give up on
rockstar yeah that was our first
goal the second goal was fighter pilot
astronaut and that that was dashed by
some physician
you were close by the way the hilarious
part of the story is a decade
later i go back to the doctor he goes oh
you're perfectly fine i said i can't be
fine i have benign heart murmur i'm
mitral valve prolapse
he goes no you don't i said but but i'm
sure i do they kicked me out of the air
force because i had it
he said oh that was a mistake they used
to make that mistake all the time
you know we have much better equipment
now
so so i left my fighter pilot astronaut
track
because of a mistake and i ended up uh
ended up working but i left the military
track on
february march my senior year i missed
all of the financial aid applications
for fellowships i couldn't afford
i had no money i couldn't afford to go
to a phd program so i worked for a year
i applied for all the fellowships i got
into mit
and harvard and i was going to go get my
phd and be a professor and life was done
and uh just as i did that i informed my
boss and my boss worked at
the dupont corporation and he had i had
built a computer simulation
to predict the return on the investment
of about a billion dollars of capital
investment in titanium dioxide
and they needed that model to get the
board to give them the money
so when i tended my resignation
the guy saw his billion dollars of
capital going away
and i'm sure he said to someone that
works for him go tell
give the kid whatever he wants but he
can't quit yet
and i was 24 year old i happened to be
important to a guy that needed a billion
dollars
you know i didn't know i was important i
was just the right place at the right
time
so he tells a guy who tells a guy that
comes to me and says
okay well we'll give you a raise if you
stay i said i don't want to raise
i want to be a professor they said well
what do you want i said
i said rock star astronaut
there's only one other thing i want i
want my own company
so i said i'll stay if you finance my
i i want uh i got millions of dollars of
contracts
i got a quarter million dollars up front
i got free office space for a couple of
years
i got all the computer equipment i.t
support 10 people from dupont came over
to work for me
they didn't take any equity so it's the
best deal ever
and i you i did this one negotiation my
best negotiation my life
they you know i had zero money in fact
when i started this company
i went to a bank and i got the only
unsecured loan that you can get as a 23
year old
which is i said i want to buy five
thousand dollars of furniture
i mean they gave me a 5 000 furniture
loan
i was living in an apartment at 700
bucks a month with uh
with milk crates for bookshelves and i
thought
five grand that'll last me six months i
maybe that'll make it so i got a 5 000
furniture loan
then i said to dupont i need a hundred
thousand dollar cash check
up front to start you can imagine these
guys in suits and they thought the kid
is out of his mind
and and they said we can't give you that
you might take that money and run off to
the caribbean
like maybe where you are right now and i
was like well you know you got to give
me the money because i
and this is my negotiating story i said
you got to give me the money
because i have no money
[Laughter]
and they looked at me and i you got a
point there you got no money
so i they literally wrote me a hundred
thousand dollar check and by
rao at this point on seven hundred
dollar a month
rent i literally believe that hundred
thousand dollars would last me for seven
years
i calculated i had seven years of
capital took the money
and i started micro strategy and where
10 people the first year and i thought
i'm going to defer
my phd program and when this thing fails
i'm going back to college and the next
year we were 20 people the next year we
were 40 people the next year we were 80
people the next year we were 300 people
and the next year people said you got to
go public
and at some point what year are we in
what year are we in now
we started i graduated in mit 87
i started this in 89 started
microstrategy in 89
wow and i again i got so lucky like
lucky that i got misdiagnosed by that
doctor lucky that
reagan won the cold war then i got lucky
that the dot-com boom took off because
if you recall between 96 and 99
everybody was going public and we were
just coming of age in 96
97 you know and in 98 we came public
june of 98
and of course it would come if we are
two years late
wouldn't have happened two years early
wouldn't have happened we came out right
that through that window and by then it
was just too late for me to go back to
college and i was like stuck
as a ceo better worse
so that's how microstrategy was founded
it was if i could i couldn't do it again
like in that twilight zone episode where
the ceo goes back
and gets all of his knowledge to try
again he ends up the janitor
if you put me back there again
i'm like well i need the cold war to end
and i need a doctor to make a mistake
and i need someone to tell me to do the
opposite of what i wanted to do and then
you know it's just all random so were
you
a risk taker with the firm so as you go
through
the journey from you know going public
so everyone's a risk taker when you
start a business you have to be
but then after that were you a risk
taker i mean how did how did that
kind of corporate journey evolved you
were ceo
you know i in hindsight i was a risk
taker
but at the time i didn't realize i was
taking the risk
the most dangerous kind of risk i you
know
like uh like if i if i could go back i
would give myself
counsel to do things differently but
yeah we
we did take risk although i'm
one thing that i i did is i just was
always very passionate about
technology so we launched microstrategy
as a business intelligence company and
we were always inventing the next thing
finally the first um the first risk
that i took was i created a piece of
software
to create computer simulations on a
macintosh
and older wiser minds professors from
mit told me
uh that's how awful idea um the
macintosh is not gonna win
everybody knows that business people use
the pc okay we were like a million
dollar company then i said
well i guess you're right but the
macintosh is much more beautiful and
better technology than the pc
so we doubled and doubled again
and they and the professor that gave me
that advice was still running a 300 000
a year consulting business and we were 4
million
with with the wrong technology so then
the professor asked me what i was doing
i said well
i'm creating executive information
systems using this spreadsheet called
wings with a hyperscripting language and
that professor said
well all my friends tell me that excel
is going to be the choice for all big
businesses
and wings is going to fail so i said
well you may be right but excel doesn't
have a scripting language
so we'll try it for a while well we
doubled again and doubled again
we got to be 30 million and he was right
and he's still running his 350 000
consulting business and then he asked me
what i was doing and i said
well i've decided to convert to
microsoft visual basic and we're going
to create relational analytics on top of
big databases he said well do you have
an experienced big database i said
no none at all and he said well you know
visual basic is not what people use for
software engineering they use c
plus i said yeah but i can't figure that
out yet
so we did it and we doubled again to 60
million dollars and he was still running
his 350 million dollar
a 50 000 consulting business not making
a mistake
at which point i realized you know
you're kind of an idiot you need to
write us
the software in c plus plus so we took
the money that we made making the first
set of mistakes and we wrote it in c
plus plus and we doubled again
and then you know i'm sure someone said
don't go public
but basically i would say we mistake
we're not very good at listening to
people that's your problem
you know i always chase after these
shiny things
okay but but there's a method to the
madness which is you're better to be
correct and do something that works
now and then figure it out three or four
years from now
then to do nothing and sit and wait and
be beat to death
so i mean the short of the story is you
know i took like six or seven risk and
and every three years we had to invent
something new
web intelligence mobile intelligence
we launched uh we launched a business
called alarm.com
about i got really enamored with domain
names
i you know i bought microstrategy.com
for my email and then i got lazy and i
thought
i hate typing micro wouldn't it be
better if i just had the email
sailor at strategy.com so i bought it
you know back in the day when you could
buy it for a hundred thousand dollars i
bought the word
strategy and still own it so then i
thought this is kind of cool
what other words could i buy i thought
it'd be cool to be
sailor michael.com so i bought
michael.com
and then i bought mike.com and then i
was like then i bought wisdom
and by the way the world needs hope
right everybody needs hope
i own hope i own hope.com
so i bought all these domain names hope
i own allah if you would like hope by
the way every
about once every month someone wants to
buy hope for me
or they want some hope but they always
offer me like a hundred and two hundred
thousand dollars
and i'm hoping for a hundred million
dollars
so i just keep it but that's a
meandering way of saying
i got re-enamored with domains back in
the mid-90s to the late 90s
and then i started thinking these are
like real estate and cyberspace
what if we could commercialize them so i
commercialized
strategy.com and i created this like uh
it was like a twitter subscription
you could sign up for alerts to anything
under the sun
and the company went from zero to 100
million in one year
and then went from 100 million to zero
in one year
and i you know it was it was
it was interesting i learned a lot from
that i had the skin flayed off my
back but you know then
but then i went on to alarm.com
and but we launched these under the
microstrategy umbrella
and the idea behind alarm was what if
you could wire all your home alarm
systems into the internet and they would
talk to you and talk to your phone and
they would tell they would call you and
tell you if someone broke into your
house
and then and uh you know not a brilliant
idea
today amazon and google and apple are
doing it
pretty unique in the year 1998 or 1999
wow so we launched that and
we launched it on alarm.com so if you go
and type alarm.com right now what you'll
find is
it's a billion dollar company uh we
eventually spun it off we made a decent
amount of money off it then they
went public with goldman sachs and it's
it's a billion dollar nasdaq traded
company now
so that's one of my babies uh it flew
away from home
i created another one called i bought
angel raw
angel a-n-g-e-f my theory of these was
very simple which is
people have a hard time spelling and
they have a hard time remembering things
so everybody gets taught how to spell
angel or hope when they're in
high school or junior high so if i tell
you
my charity or my company or whatever is
on angel you go
am a-n-g-e-o you don't got to go to the
google you don't have to go to yahoo you
don't have to search for it
if you search by the way for voice
on google you get a billion hits you
have to sift through a billion
if your name of your company is
something voice or whatever voice of the
people there's a billion things you're
fighting with
if you own voice.com you go to the top
by the way not only do you go to the top
of the search engine
right nobody needs the search engine you
can bypass a search engine everybody
knows how to type in
voice right so the idea was own the word
in cyberspace it's a scarce asset right
it's
fascinating and for 10 you know 1 000
years people been using the word
so own the word so we basically
commercialized on angel the idea of
interactive voice response like emma
i'm sorry not like uh siri siri or
or or the like or alexa and uh we did it
back in
2000 anybody could basically build an
interactive
voice response application we plugged it
into your telephone
and that started to work and about it
was a sas application we ran it out of
the cloud and you plugged in your
telephone
and we built it to a certain point but
it was a totally different brand it was
a different business model and
and i had an enterprise software company
and this was not enterprise software and
it drove
all of the accountants crazy so
eventually we realized it was more
valuable to someone else than it was to
us and we sold it for about 120 million
dollars
uh and so that was my next little hit
with a domain
and then then at some point i started to
realize
that if you're not the best in the world
at something
nobody wants you for anything okay and
it's like
you know in the early days we all
thought well
i got 30 million dollars i can build
this app everybody wanted to be what's
up everybody wanted to be instagram or
whatever
i when i'm i gotta but if i had a nickel
for every time someone said i have an
idea for a mobile app you know
it's like yeah you do right and
it's worth a nickel i launched all these
things some work
some didn't work right and i you know i
i tried
i tried it many of them and then i
eventually realized that you need to
focus right it's the first
hurdle is is can you acquire a thing can
you build something
okay you generally can i mean
can you buy that thing the second hurdle
is
can you um can you compete in that
market right can you can you maintain a
competitiveness
in that market that means investing
every year as much as the next best
person is investing forever
right can you stay competitive that's a
higher hurdle
but the highest hurdle is can you
commercialize or not can you profit from
the thing
so a lot of people can do a thing yeah
most people can't do a thing better
consistently forever
and even if you can can you make money
off it
okay so this is a this is an
articulation of stoicism
just because you can do a thing doesn't
mean you should do a thing
and every young man he sees everything
he's like i have to do all this stuff
i have an idea for this and this and
this and this and this
so i i went through that journey of do
this and i kind of worked for you
you have more successes than failures i
failed up
i got a lot of scars but i but it was
humbling
to i mean you have to have the failures
uh along with the successes because if
you if you don't fail eventually you get
this big failure where it all comes
crashing down
so i guess i adopted along the way this
idea of stoicism and i realized that
you need to put all of your heart and
soul into one thing
and so at that point we sold off the one
company we
spun off the other thing and i realized
you know my destiny was i could i could
run
microstrategy and be the world's best
business intelligence company solely
focused upon that one thing that's what
we're going to be
and um i went back to doing that and i
let the other things go
and i let the domain portfolio just sit
and um it and and we just we're the
little engine that could focus upon
making our business intelligence better
with web intelligence and mobile
intelligence and cloud intelligence and
and now our cool thing is hyper
intelligence it's like
it's like know the answer before you ask
the question without clicking on
anything
you know and i tell you about that in a
bit if you want but yeah i'm super
interested
i i was just busy minding my own
business
i got off i used to tweet you know i
used to tweet all the time i got off
i focused on my core business and then
eventually i came back i discovered
bitcoin
the day i put on twitter that we bought
250 million
worth of bitcoin the entire hive mind of
crypto twitter came to life
and they went through every tweet that i
had put out there
a thousand of them and then someone
dredges up the tweet where i had
once upon a time in my imminent
brilliance discovered that
bitcoin was dead and it was going to
zero and i
enthusiastically posted that back in
2013.
and and everybody wanted to know what i
thought about that and
and and what i got to tell you is
i didn't remember i ever had an opinion
on bitcoin
until they reminded me that i had once
been utterly wrong
on it and so i i guess that's very
humbling
but uh but i i love the entire crypto
twitter community i mean i think they're
the smartest
coolest most interesting uh charismatic
individuals
you know when they're right there right
when they're wrong they're still
kind of interestingly right and uh and
i think they make us better versions of
ourself but
putting that aside i was minding my own
business running micro strategy
trying to be the best business
intelligence company we can and i would
say that's 150
focus on the p l and i was not you know
and and with regard to investment my
investment world consisted of
this row it's like i was a technology
investor
in the year 2012 i published a book the
mobile wave
and in the mobile wave ion essence said
software is leaping
from out from under your desk beyond
your laptop
onto a mobile device it's going from
solid state
to liquid state to vapor state and it's
going to be like vapor all around us
and what that means is that the entire
software
world is becoming networked
networked uh networked vapor state
uh incredibly powerful dematerialized
versions of of
products and services and so the summary
is
is um apple computers going to rule the
world
buy apple facebook amazon google go
if you read the book you know that's
what i wrote i mean the epiphany was
2009 i asked my niece who was nine years
old
you know what do you want for christmas
and she said i want the big apple and i
said you want a trip to new york city
and she goes no i want an ipad okay and
i thought
apple's going to replace new york city i
was going to rule the world
so my investment thesis was quite simple
you know
apple facebook amazon google a simple
way
for a tech investor to think is you buy
a dominant
network according to metcalf's law
that's won the market
the mobile network the information
network the video network the social
network
i just named apple google youtube
facebook the you know commercial very
simple
buy the dominant network and wait while
all the naysayers on wall street
and all the talking heads and all the
people that know better
tell you why you you know hedge
i hate the word hedge like like
like uh you know i can tell you wall
street
luminaries in 2012 would lecture me on
they would say you know you shouldn't
buy too much apple stock
we've got a we've got a mutual fund and
what we do is if your apple stock gets
to be too much of your
computer portfolio we sell it and buy hp
and ibm to diversify you
you know and i said well guys don't you
realize that eventually apple's going to
eat them all
and there won't be a need for hp or ibm
or anybody and what happens when apple
is 150
of all the profit in the entire tech
industry industry right
well we don't see it that way okay
that's what they thought
and then they go well you know we're
gonna protect you
if uh if your share of your portfolio is
too much technology
we're gonna sell technology and we're
gonna buy all these other assets
and i was like but guys what happens
when technology eats everything and
there aren't any other assets
okay in my opinion and i'm gonna be
snarky here
i think an ignorant investor thinks that
technology companies are a part of
of the index or they're a part of the
industry
in my opinion as a science historian
john d rockefeller was running a
technology company if you study the
history of standard oil
he did everything that jeff bezos did a
hundred years earlier
and if you study general electric once
upon a time electricity was pretty
technically interesting and if you've
actually been to the hershey's factory
in pennsylvania
not a one of these investors could build
the damn thing hershey's factory
is a computer built in steel welded
which is the most
majestic majestic creation of mankind
you could possibly imagine
imagine writing a computer program and
billions of dollars of steel and moving
parts that spits out
a hundred thousand candy bars an hour
you know without contaminating them you
know
it's you think it's not technology or
or craft you know i create ketchup
the technology was i had clean room
technology
i had to take the tomatoes manufacture
the ketchup
put in a seal container without any
bacteria in it so that it didn't rot
over the course of the next year okay
it's
clean room technology no different than
intel semiconductor chips
so when these people think oh well we're
not
buying a technology company it's like
every company that ever succeeded was a
technology company and the only reason
it grew
was it had technology superior to
everybody else
so i i happen to you know back to 2012 i
thought
my investment thesis is you buy
technology companies that have a
dominant
place in their industry that are going
to eat everything and then you just wait
while all the people that don't really
think hard about this
short you or diversify out of you and
eventually
some 80 year old investor that's got
more money than god
will discover that apple computer is not
some newfangled you know uh gimmick
right eventually and he will buy it at
10x what you bought it for
and and but and then it will double
again right and he will make some money
and you will have made some money but
you'll have to be beat to death by
well well-educated well-intentioned
diversifying experts
while you wait for that to happen and
they're going to say things like
we're going to hedge you out of this or
we don't want to
don't want to take too much risk on
apple don't want to take too much risk
on google
what if you had diversified your google
search engine into every other search
engine for the last
20 years you know one of the things i've
talked about many times is
there's a lot of people who want to
trade they think trading makes money
when you look at people who built real
wealth it's basically one bet
you know bill gates is who he is because
he didn't sell his stock
essentially you know and that's the same
people take one
clear bet filter out all of the noise
and just pursue it
we're all you know i listened to to uh
your phrase irresponsibly long
right but but you know it's really
tongue-in-cheek
you're not irresponsibly
long you're you're just
you're just uh unfortunately
rational like maybe the word is
is uh is like uh
maybe uh some slightly early being
rational
like you're making a rational decision
uh no
i'm on what's the word for unpopular
you're rational and
unpopular exclu exclusively
rational maybe that's the word
exclusively rational
so once you understand what's going to
happen
you kind of got to do it i i bought a
lot of bitcoin
recently like over the past before that
why the hell did you have so much cash
you know that was the question i was
thinking okay great you bought bitcoin
how come you had so much cash aren't you
supposed to make cash if you're in
business you're supposed to make money
but what do you do with it it's just
sitting in the business
okay well this takes me back uh back to
where
we went off on my little tangent which
is
i was minding my own business running
microstrategy
where you know running the p l i was a
wage earner you know you go and you make
a salary and you spend less money than
you make it's like
it's a 20th century idea my dad taught
me that
like depression error economics spend
less than you make
so we're making money spending less than
we're making putting cash in the bank
and we're struggling to compete against
you know
my competitors are ibm oracle sap
you know microsoft they're all 100 times
bigger than us
we're the independent we're the you know
the switzerland so we're doing that that
kind of takes up a lot of your attention
and i'm not really paying attention to
macroeconomics
i don't you know my my investment thesis
as i said was
buy tech stocks but like you can't buy
tech stocks as a public company ceo
and put the treasury into tech stocks
and you certainly couldn't do it near
2012
you might do in your personal portfolio
but but the
the conventional wisdom if you're
running a corporate treasury is
you're going to buy you're going to put
cash and you're going to buy short-term
treasuries short-term t-bills and
i happen to believe before the financial
crisis
you know i remember the time when you
can make five and a half percent
interest on overnight money we're
getting five
five and a half percent yield you have
500 million dollars you're getting paid
30 million dollars
finally i happen to remember when
savings accounts paid six percent
interest
it's like and by the way we didn't think
we were getting a good deal from the
bank we thought that was totally
reasonable
and every conventional wisdom was
the risk-free cost of capital
is six to eight percent and then you get
attack on a risk premium of four percent
so your real cost to capital is 12 to do
anything and that's the old day
so that that's the way i thought about
the treasury
and then i thought and then there were
other people what else can i do with the
money
you can buy your own stock back or you
can buy another company
now i teach a course in uh management
theory to all
my managers and my number one question
is
how do you wreck a software company in
my history and by
rao i'm like the longest presiding
public company ceo in the enterprise
software industry
nobody has been ceo of a public
enterprise software company longer than
me 22
years 88 quarters i count them
one at a time everybody came and gone
okay how do you wreck a software company
you know you have an answer for me what
do you think
number one way to wreck it i'm assuming
it's going to be acquire somebody else
make a acquisition make a bad
acquisition okay bingo
the ceo of sap comes in he lasts for
nine months he buys autonomy
they take an 11 billion dollar write-off
it's pretty impressive to burn 11
billion dollars
in 11 months on one transaction that you
probably spend
i don't know a few hours on i mean
like how many lifetimes how many
a million lifetimes to make 11 billion
dollars
so um the number one way to kill a
company is make a bad acquisition
so i got all this cash do i go buy
something i i have lived long enough to
see
90 percent yeah how about microsoft
buying nokia that was a good idea
right uh by the way you could have seen
that one coming a mile away that was the
most awful idea
you could imagine uh you want to count
the number
90 of all acquisitions end awfully
right and and there's a few accretive
ones
if you buy a small company pump it
through a massive distribution channel
jack it up by a factor of 10 with no
variable cost
you know maybe it works but acquisitions
are bad so
i'm not going to buy a company so what
else do you do with the cash
you buy your own stock back okay how
many
how many companies have gone toys r us
gone bankrupt
because they bought that you know they
lever up they issue a massive dividend
they drain the capital right drain all
the capital out of the company they're
running on
um what happened if you were actually
running
on uh on vapor when covid hit
yeah it's all over everybody is
insolvent
they're all out of business overnight
okay so that's another way to kill the
company you drain all your capital
so so what's left
what what the heck is left okay steve
jobs is my hero
steve jobs had a near a near-death
experience with this company apple
computer was almost you know
there was a point when michael dell told
apple they should just give the money
back to the shareholders and shut down
right that's a tweet you probably don't
like coming back
okay so steve jobs kept all that cash
you know until the day he died and they
accumulate they didn't buy back the
stock
i would you know i thought maybe i would
like microstrategy to not
die and so i was going to keep the
capital and
by the way so i can serve the customers
yeah you have nightmares of your cfo the
nightmare is
you let a customer down right like some
when someone actually invests 10 million
dollars in my company
software and then they build something
with it and they deploy it
you know like you're going to go tell
them oh we decided not to update the
software
let me put it differently how would you
feel if you put 100 million dollars into
bitcoin
and then the miner said we're turning
off the rigs and the developers said
we're not going to patch the bug or
upgrade and so it's just going to stop
working right so you have a you have an
ethical moral obligation to your
customers and a lot of times these ceos
they kind of they kind of get cute
this is the problem with the the lbo
guys
we're going to get cute we're going to
buy it i'm going to buy marvel comics
i'm going to leverage it up drain the
capital out of it and bankrupt marvel
right happened right sad
happen right so don't want to do that
so what can i do i just leave the cash
in the bank and i'm buying the stock
back at some rate and then along comes
covid and and covet is this
transformational experience
thomas kuhn and the structure of
scientific revolutions which is the
seminal work on the history of science
he wrote when the paradigm shift comes
along
write the old guard you know when we
invent uh
antibiotics or or the science of
sterilization or
or nuclear energy or whatever it is we
invent
the old guard rejects it no one accepts
it until they're dead
unless there's a war
and the one thing that'll get people to
change their mind is when they die and
their kids take over
that changes some minds right and
and the other thing that gets people to
change their mind is a war
you know world war ii it you know and as
as trotsky said you may not be
interested in war
but war is interested in you and
when the war arrives you all of a sudden
get interested in stuff
that you were able to ignore because it
was
of an academic interest to people
somewhere else
so this year we got two wars
we got a war on covid and it and it and
by the way what's the warren kovac done
i would have fired you rau if you told
me you wanted to work from somewhere
other than my office
i you know i would have said you don't
show up to my office you're not sitting
next to me you don't have a job here
last year i was firing people that
didn't want to come to work
let me tell you what happens next covet
hits
lockdown hits i'm like
i'm hating that idea then i gotta have a
meeting
and at nine a.m in the morning we got a
meeting and we're on
on video conferencing technology a which
i will not mention
and the line drops the sound doesn't
work
there's a war ball i blow throw a little
hissy fit
all my it people scramble by 11 a.m
we're on video conferencing technology
2 and i got 12 executives and we're
talking blah blah blah blah blah and two
of the executives freeze
and one of them doesn't work and i throw
a second hissy fit
by 1pm they're like well you know mike
we've got this thing called
zoom and we haven't tried it yet but we
thought we might try that i said
hook it up by 2 p.m we're using zoom
it's working well like you and i are
working well
by 4 p.m email goes out from the ceo to
the entire company
zoom is now the corporate standard we
will discontinue all
other uses of video conferencing
everybody in the company will be
certified on zoom zoom webinar
zoom video recordings you know a stipend
to purchase your own
home microphone
will go out to everybody buy green
screens if you need to
i expect it to be done no more meetings
other than zoom by a.m the next morning
2
500 people have turned left okay that's
what war will do to you
okay in a hurry it's like because you
got to
now the first war was the coveted war
and that changed everybody's p l
and that's half the business i have a
500 million dollar
operating business and we sell
enterprise software and
and in a matter of weeks we needed to
figure out how to sell that stuff
virtually and how to deliver
service virtually and 500 consultants
went from being on site
to being uh to being remote and you know
like the war hit rel and we started
worrying about what's going to happen to
our business
nobody knows four weeks later 500 people
had gone
had gone remote and i was waiting to see
like whether a meteorite was going to
hit me on the head and you know
whether whether that was going to be
mass destruction would the revenues
crumple
would customers go ballistic crazy okay
and then here's what happened
we stopped spending five million dollars
a quarter on
on running around on flying around in
hotels
our next 15 million dollars worth of
marketing events
trade shows got cancelled on us
then we realized we couldn't stage 150
000 symposiums even we wanted to
and then we realized that every
expensive sales and marketing and
services activity we had previously
heretofore engaged in
was no longer appropriate
or practical or possible or relevant or
necessary
well like i think i just made 40 million
dollars a year
and about 40 million dollars a year on a
500
million dollar a year revenue stream i
got kicked
i got kicked in the ass with a golden
horseshoe
[Laughter]
all right i don't want to make light of
it because a lot of people are suffering
a lot of pain
okay and there's a you know someone's
one person's
state cost savings is another person's
revenue right so if you look at the
other point of view there's a lot of
people
in the events industry the hotel
industry the airline industry
et cetera and they're suffering right
but
i'm the ceo i have to be the fiduciary
for my shareholders and for my customers
and
at the end of the day what happened at
the p l is we realized we were going to
be much more profitable and be much more
efficient
after this despite the ceo
kicking and screaming being dragged into
the virtual age
right right so that that's me i had an
opinion
i was wrong war hit me bang
on the head okay i see it differently
today
and by the way at that point i saw what
everybody else
in the virtual world had been seeing so
clearly
three years before me four years before
me but i had to go through three
different vendors
and i had by i had to change my
technology my customers had to be forced
to take my technology my employees had
to be forced if i had walked in and i
said to the
cios that i deal with i'm not going to
meet with you face to face i want you to
zoom to me
12 months ago they would have told me to
you know go pound sand
so what happened really was the war
changed everybody's behavior
right and and uh so we got uh
now i'm gonna pick it's a let in quote
right i mean there are decades where
nothing happens
and there are weeks when decades happen
right
and so the war didn't change me the war
changed everybody
and so my p l is different my operating
income is different
and now that takes us back to the ballot
sheet the balance sheet which was an
afterthought i got a bunch of money
i'm buying some stock back our stock you
know got hammered
through the floor and then what happens
so i'm watching the market
and and i'm living the pain of main
street
and i'm watching that all of these
operating businesses are getting
destroyed
getting destroyed and it's just the most
horrific
awful thing of my career horror
right it's like i i i have no words for
it i'm not even going to articulate the
words for it except for this
to say i watched and felt with a
horrifying
pain the dismantling of
my entire world view
of which not a big fan
okay now having watched that
change then i watched a v-shaped
recovery with
talking heads on msnbc and i just
watched the market
go like that and i watched every equity
go through the roof
you know apple stock goes it doubles
even though any rational persons how can
apple be worth
twice as much when half of the world's
economy just got
wrecked and when
when their revenues and their earnings
are looking constant
so that the earnings multiples blow
through the roof
right it's like and then i watch
but this is one that blows my mind ralph
if you told me if you're a bond salesman
and you said to me mike i have an idea
for you
i want you to buy 30-year 30-year
government
bonds that are going to yield two
percent interest for the rest of your
life
i said are you out of your mind
are you you must be crazy to sell me
these bonds
those bonds had a 22
gain in 12 weeks so you would have made
a 22
gain on the long bond index i might and
i feel like an
idiot like i would have made money
buying
bonds a two percent yield for the rest
of my life
i would have made money buying leveraged
equity
of everything as the world is going
through the floor
and i'm holding my little bucket of cash
as this is happening and that takes me
to my second war
but the first war is the warren covet
the second war is the war on currency
but like people say there's a currency
war
i heard it i didn't understand it i
thought currency war
by the way i don't even know if
everybody agrees or even under
interprets it the way i do
i thought currency war was
was the us wants to weaken its currency
so that our exports are more affordable
in europe
i thought well that's kind of cool uh
you know when the uh when the currency
weakens
all of my revenues in europe denominated
in the euros go up by 20 percent and my
revenues and dollars go up by 20 percent
and it's good for my stock in dollars
it's like that's kind of
that's kind of cute that's our currency
adjustment we get that every quarter
and if the us dollar is weak we feel
good about it when the us dollar is
strong we have currency headwinds
okay that's second order currency war
okay the first order currency war is
every every buddy in the world declared
war on
currency and
your hundred million dollars in the bank
that bought
a bond that you know maybe i
i buy a bond for a million bucks that
yields 50
000 a year okay that's an asset that's
interesting to me
i want to retire i buy a million dollar
bond yielding 5
interest and i get 50 000 a year
when the currency war hits now that bond
trades up to two million dollars and it
deals 20
50 000 a year but is two and a half
percent yield
so what happened was the bonds shoot
through the roof and they appreciate by
a hundred percent
what really happened in the past 12
weeks
is assets we saw asset inflation of 25
to 40 percent
okay cpi is such a misnomer right like
people talk about inflation like it's
cpi well
you can measure the inflation rate of of
consumer
products and services yeah i buy a
domino's pizza and i buy netflix and i
buy youtube
those aren't inflating when i measure
the market basket of consumer assets
it's like my retired dad would like to
buy a million dollar bond that yields
fifty thousand dollars a year in
interest
when i measure that you're talking about
you know six seven eight percent in a
normal year as the money supply
increases
all of the things that i want to buy
i'm being snarky all the things i want
to buy are going up eight percent a year
in a good year
all the things that are being given away
for me that are manufactured by machines
there's also a function of this and just
listen to you just clarified a thought
for me
right the function of inflation is
generally driven by demand
right i i don't believe it's necessarily
fully a monetary phenomenon maybe demand
is passed but demographics
plays a big part right the largest
demographic wave
of all time are the baby boomers
those guys guess what they want to buy
retirement assets
you know and so you know that you know
there's a perceived value in that so
it's kind of crowded within certain
things
and it's created this enormous bubble in
it and that's that's where my dispute
is with with all the entire
media fixation on inflation as cpi
it's like do i want to buy a million
dollars worth of domino pizzas
and do i want to buy a million dollars
worth of netflix or a million dollars
worth of consumable products
or do i want to buy a million dollars
worth of assets that let me not work for
the rest of my life
well that they're measuring the things
that are easy to manufacture with a
robot
or a factory they're not measuring the
things that i want
that because the things that i want are
scarce assets that have a yield and
you know let's take a share of apple
stock well you wanted a share of apple
stock
when it was a quarter of what it costs
today
yeah okay it now costs four times as
much
how can you say inflation is two percent
if the
uh if the thing i wanted to buy went up
by 400
and without the underlying business
changing without the underlying business
changing
so now we come back to a currency one
the wars on the currency
and and the result is
25 inflation on cur if you're holding
currency and you want
and what do you what can you convert
treasury assets to
you can convert them into other assets
okay i'm not going to buy domino's
pizzas
with treasury assets i'm going to i'm
going to eventually buy
a stock that has a dividend
or i'm a stream of cash flows or i'm
going to buy a bond
that is a stream of cash flows and right
now
the bond that i can buy is going to
yield 1.3
interest for the rest of my life so
now you start thinking i i didn't have
to really think about it
until i got hit in the head with the 2x4
of this currency war
and and then if i wasn't paying
attention
the internet explodes msnbc explodes
if if you haven't noticed it now right i
mean you must be
living under a rock somewhere right
it it's pretty noticeable so then i
start getting introduced to the concept
of
i always knew nominal interest rates
were low
yeah that i get but then i started
thinking about real interest rates
but every system oh the real interest
rate on a 10-year bond is like well
minus one percent
well no it's not i mean
it's only minus one percent if you buy
into the notion that cpi
is is inflation but if you actually
start thinking in terms of
of inflation is a vector based upon
what you want to acquire with the cash
then you realize the rate at which
tech equity has been inflating is a lot
faster than
like what's the what's the rate at which
apple stock has been going up
is that it's cpi right is that 10 is
that 50
so now if i look at asset inflation i
start thinking you know
at at that point the real yield
on my cash yeah but there is a cap
but the bonds had a capital gains as you
pointed out before
so the net offset of bonds over the
course of this year bonds versus nasdaq
it's been a pretty close run yeah you're
you're right i think we're doing well
if you were smart enough
it's totally counter to my thinking how
could a
person rationally lock up its com his
company's capital for the next 30 years
for two percent interest
see if if i'm the ceo and you said no
you you'd
invest it back in the business at the
very least if not you're saying your
business cannot generate
a two percent roi okay here's my
my problem is moral hazard if i took
500 million dollars and i put it into
a 30-year bond yielding 2 interest
and if any if if any
rational economist took over the fed
you would think the interest rate's
gonna go to four percent
or five percent the inter everybody
knows
that the economy cannot function with a
zero percent
interest forever right interest rate is
the value of time
we're in a war with time we want to stop
yeah will you give me everything that
you own will you give it to me
for the rest of your life if i return
one third of it to you when you're dead
right that's what one percent interest
is well
right right give me everything you own
i will give you one percent of it back
each year
for the next 30 years and when you're
dead
you will get 30 your heirs will get 30
of what you gave me now
so here's here's the moral hazard
i well that or the dilemma for me as a
ceo
if i invest the 500 million in the
30-year t-bills at 2
i'm taking the risk i'm i'm making the
bet that no
rational actor will ever fix the problem
in in in in the fed right i'm
like i have to bet all my company's
treasury
that the world will stay irrationally
priced everything
it kind of it was the right bet for a
japanese ceo to have made
it's like by the way you know if ray
dalio says cash is trash right like um
i don't know if he says it the trolls
say he says it but uh
like i'm gonna wait for 30 years and see
whether
whether the government has inflated the
cash and then you're going to give me
back the 500 million in 30
30 years it's like i that doesn't make
any sense
because i pretty much bet i i can't but
i can't construct a rational argument
whereby 30 years from now
i will have made money on it but here's
here's what i would think any rational
person would think that you lock up 500
million dollars for 30 years at 2
interest when the interest rate goes to
4 percent
your bonds are going to trade down by 30
or 40 and you're going to lose the 200
million dollars right
so what i'm looking at i'm thinking you
know that's the craziest thing ever
right
i can't imagine that so if you're a
shorter term trader
i'm like okay have at it buy the 30-year
long bond index you're gonna but no one
seems to be thinking they're gonna hold
it for 30 years
so but i i can't get that so so on one
hand i look at that it's just massive
hazard moral hazard craziness
and on the other hand i look at all
these of the equities i'm like well
i can't just buy individual equities i
mean
there's too much equity risk there and
then meantime
i just watch you know i watch the
talking heads we get beat to death
with this issue of real return
and i start to go to school on that and
i realized that
you can calculate a real yield if if
your real yield is take the asset
inflation rate and subtract that
from the the nominal yield
then the conclusion you come to pretty
quickly
is that the real yield on cash
this year is minus 30
minus 25 right if you were holding the
cash
if you were holding a 30-year bond you
broke even or may you know or maybe
you're okay
but i but i'm not if you're holding a
two-three four-year instrument the real
yield
is obscenely bad it's minus 10 20
15 20 30 depends upon how you see that
the real yield on on
on uh anything i was holding is bad now
the question is
how do i get a positive yield like i
i i use this phrase i said you know
i come to the horrifying conclusion that
i'm sitting on a 500 million dollar ice
cube
that's melting it's it's melting
at six percent in a good year and
for the last decade it's been melting at
six percent
okay i i was there but i could ignore it
in good times you ignore the six percent
but then when you have to actually get
educated on macroeconomics you realize
it's been melting at six percent
and then you realize that this year it's
melting 25 percent
and then you have to look out over the
next three years and ask the question
is it going to continue to melt at 20
percent a year for the next
three years is going to melt at 15 or 10
percent
you know and uh but if you think about
your terms because basically
part of your construct is that
opportunity cost
is is your negative yield essentially
right
now let's say you're a corporate
treasurer and you've got 500
with the ceo you've got 500 million
dollars as you said
you could choose to make an acquisition
well guess what 40
more expensive now in in the sector that
you want to acquire so as you say your
opportunity cost
has been incredibly expensive by setting
in cash
so to offset that which i guess is what
your mentality is you need an asset that
can offset that opportunity cost
without overpaying for the asset you
know raleigh
and you say you say a wise thing that an
investor gets
i was ceo i didn't get it i like i
didn't get some things until
i got it okay until this year i would go
to my investors and i said well we got a
great company we got 500 million 600
million in cash a great bulletproof
balance sheet
and they looked at me like like we're
not going to value the cash
like they didn't value my cash they
thought you know they thought it was
like worth nothing
and you know i kind of took offense to
that like they don't get it like
the cash means that we're indestructible
we're going to live forever and we can
do the right thing by our employees our
shareholders
and by our customers right and why why
is it i'm being punished for being
virtuous
for saving my money and for being
responsible and conservative
and i was kind of you know angry you
know not angry irritated a little bit
like they don't get it
and then i realized they kind of do get
it they had a different perspective i
just didn't understand what they were
trying to tell me
and their perspective is i mean there's
no rational investor that would raise a
billion dollars and say
my plan is to put it in cash and wait
right you can't go raise
that money so their perspective was
assets are inflating at six percent or
seven percent a year in a good year
if i'm not beating seven percent i can't
stay in this business
so that takes you to this this notion
that the asset inflation rate
is actually just the cost of capital
okay and okay bingo
your cost to capital if you're the ceo
of a publicly traded company in a good
year in a normal year is six percent or
seven percent
you better actually generate more than
seven percent with it or
you got to give it back to the
shareholders i mean down to
the razor thin margin now now
there's a certain elegance to that um
why didn't we actually
do that well it used to be we're
thinking
i i've got a bunch of capital we're
buying our stock back
at a at a measured rate you know and uh
we were very friendly traded so if i
bought 20 of the stock back in the
windows
without moving the market it takes me
like seven years
you know it takes me some number of
years to buy it all back you know it's
very frustrating and if i like
if i and i can't go any faster than that
you know without doing a tender offer of
the light
so we're we're doing a bit of that and
then along comes
the pandemic and everybody gets kicked
into high gear and
the opera the p l gets kicked into high
gear and we're transforming
and then this macroeconomic change takes
place and the cost capital now row
it's not six percent anymore the cost of
capital just spiked
and so the fascinating thing here is if
you're a corporate treasurer
your cost of capital was six percent
this year your cost capital is 25
and then all the assets that you could
buy go through the roof and now that
this is a problem like do i go buy a
company
90 likely i burn the business
i destroy the if i buy a bad acquisition
then i probably make a mistake that's a
that's a peril
do i go by um the s p 500
after it spiked up today the most
crowded trade right they're saying the
most crowded trade is
also the future expected returns are
basically negative by
most people's assessment for the next 10
years so you're basically locking into a
loss
it feel it could very well be a lost
decade
uh for for equities so but
i watched television for the past like
four months
and it's just it's amazing to me that
that um
the equity commentators managed to find
something positive to say
every single day you know
every single day it's amazing so yeah
that doesn't it doesn't really work for
me so
my cost capital spikes i get i get
sensitized to the issue
we start thinking we got to do something
okay so now you put yourself in my
situation
you have 500 million in cash
cost capital went through the roof and
and every central banker wants to print
more money
and every intelligent investor is
telling you that cash is trash
what would you do if you're me i i came
to the same conclusion you did
i mean it's basically is you need to
look for an asset
that's going to protect you in a number
of scenarios that has a high expected
upside
that beats the cost of capital and so
that's the only thing i can think of and
so it to me it came down to
golden golden bitcoin so so we tick
through these
so what what can i buy i'm not going to
buy an individual equity i'm not going
to buy another company
can i buy a portfolio of commercial real
estate oops
half commercial real estate's impaired
the other you know
the other half is overinflated and
who's going to sell me 500 million
dollars worth of commercial real estate
at a fair price that's not impaired
this year right that's not going to work
so now i'm down to uh can i buy an index
of stock
well anything you want to buy company
wise that's cheap
is basically insolvent and comes with a
bunch of debts
anything that doesn't cover the bunch of
debts is crazy ludicrously expensive
okay you're right i get it and and so
mark that off the list so so now i i
what have i got precious metals and
bitcoin
so i look at two things that i
completely dismissed was oblivious to
my entire life rel right like
and so all of a sudden you get hit in
the head with a two by four
and you cross off your list and every
door is shut to you
but these two other random doors and so
you got to open up the doors and start
to look
and so now i go down the rabbit hole and
i start studying
and you know you can learn anything on
the internet
so all of a sudden you get discovered by
me
pomp gets discovered by me i ha i have
this friend
eric weiss who's who's uh
runs a crypto hedge fund and a couple
years ago he told me about bitcoin i
thought well that's crazy
i i kind of dismissed it out of him like
like well i mean couldn't someone else
create a bitcoin
cryptocurrency and then all the money
will drain away and
maybe you know how how do you know it's
going to work and so i just don't even
look at it don't even think about it
you know and um when all the other doors
shut this one opens and now i
now i have a problem right if someone
took
500 million dollars out of your bank put
it in your backyard
open the back gate and then every month
someone came in and they burned two
percent of your money
you know it's like you go from thinking
your money is safe to having
extreme anxiety extreme
so now i got a problem assault i i first
had to solve the p
l problem now we switch to the balance
sheet
and uh so what do we do well take this
off
first i go and i start you know i study
the stuff and i get to introduce the
stock to flow right now
all of a sudden i'm looking at plan b
and what is stock to flow
okay two percent you know two percent of
the gold supply gets inflated every year
and then i start doing the math and i
start thinking about it i'm thinking
well two percent minus you know whatever
it's
it's better and then i start looking at
crypto and i look at bitcoin
and then i realized this is what i and
then i start
with all the concerns about bitcoin
right what if it gets
forked right i mean you know there's
nothing more anxiety inducing than when
someone puts eight pages
in front of you of what happens to your
crypto if it gets a hard fork or a soft
fork and you're studying it
so i started studying it but but then i
realized
here's what i realized in short order
bitcoin's the 200 billion dollar asset
bitcoin is a hive of cybernetic
hornets doing the bidding of mother
nature
protected by by a
a wall of encrypted energy
right that's what i saw once i started
to dig it it's
it's a it's a living cybernetic harm
hive creature with a wall of encrypted
energy
and and lord help the guy that tries to
shove his hand into that hornet's nest
and steal
from it right it's and i thought that's
interesting
and then i studied aetherium that's the
number two and then i realized
ethereum is is something totally
different a world computer and they're
still chasing after functionality
uh you know all sorts of functionality
and like more power to them
decentralized finance it's interesting
it's experimental there
it might be something that micro
strategies build something on in the
future
for ethereum yeah i mean i guess i guess
what i'd say is
is um i saw all that stuff
but it's there's still a question of of
will it work it has to be proven and
there are centralized competitors to it
and they're not done with the functional
architecture i mean
if you understand proof of work then
when the founder
says well we think we're going to switch
it to proof of stake because we don't
think proof of work will work for us
then you know you realize there's
there's a fundamental dogmatic
set of assumptions and there's an
existential debate going on there
sure you know fast forward to the
conclusion which is
if you look at all the proof-of-work
crypto networks bitcoin is 92 percent of
them all
the next competitor is two percent the
next competitor is one and a half
percent
the next competitor is less than one
percent it's the market screaming to you
that there's a winner
right so when everybody says well you
know there might be another one
no they wouldn't be well this might be
the
myspace well no if you knew anything
about the history
of myspace you would know that myspace
flamed out at a billion dollars
you know it flamed out when it was
less than one percent of what bitcoin
was
you know bitcoin was never myspace
you know bitcoin is the facebook of of
closed digital monetary networks
and it's already crushed everything and
it's eating it's software
eating the world right software eating
money
and it's only going to get more powerful
so
now we're back to my issue i know i got
to buy hard assets
it's a question of silver gold bitcoin
and now i start thinking about it you
know and
here's what i'm thinking row it's like i
think everybody's too short-term on this
stuff
you want to really understand it step
back from the noise look at the big
picture
how does this feel across time and space
i'm gonna take a hundred million dollars
and i'm going to give it
to my successor in a hundred years
okay you want to send something to your
grandchildren or your
great-grandchildren if you want to endow
anything of value
a park a company an institution
a foundation a family or whatever
whatever you're a religion you a
political system i don't care what it is
if you believe in it and you want it to
be here a hundred years from now
you got some money how are you going to
convey
the hundred million dollars across a
hundred years
without losing it would you invest in
apple stock
apple might not be around would you
invest it in dollars traditionally
traditionally real estate's been that
answer but even that's risky
okay so you want to buy a hundred
million dollars of real estate in
california
yeah no okay do you know what the
property tax rate is in florida
that's true i forget about u.s property
taxes yeah i know it's two percent
if you take a hundred million dollars
and you buy florida real estate it's two
million dollars a year
and by the way it gets appraised up
every year which means that
over 30 years you'll lose it all the
property tax rate on anything
in the real world is going to drain it
from you you can't buy real estate
if you look at all assets you can buy
the clock you buy a stock you buy an
equity
you've got a property tax you've got an
income tax
you've got you've got employee payroll
taxes
you've got regulation you've got customs
you've got trade you've got tariff
now i'm going to come back to you with a
question how are you going to convey
your family's wealth across the
generations for
100 years and if you're not i'll just
stop right there how are you going to do
it you tell me well the only thing
is and gold is not easy because
where do you store it and how do you
pass that along okay so let me stop you
there and tell me what the
i'm going to tell you what the problem
is the goal i thought about
take your 100 million dollars and put it
in gold
in a vault gold miners are going to
2 million 2 percent more every year
okay if if gold miners produce if you
own the entire supply of gold in the
world
and if it was pure right for london
delivery gold bars and it isn't right
but if it was and if you were sure you
owned it all
if gold miners create two percent more
every year the rule of 70 says every 35
years the goal supply doubles
which means that you would own half the
gold supply in 35 years a quarter of the
gold supply
in in another 35 years and in a hundred
years
you're going to own about 15 percent
maybe even 12
of the goal supply so here you'll like
this
so i was thinking through something
similar in a different way
i just wanted to look at the fed balance
sheet growth over the last
whatever period i wanted to choose and i
looked at every asset against it
the fed balance sheet outperformed
everything outbound goal by 50
so gold's done a bloody lousy job it's
better than many things
there's only one asset only one asset
that did it
and it killed it was bitcoin okay and
by the way and i know why now and and
i'll tell you what i think it is in a
second
um i thought i was going to buy gold and
a very smart guy that
that works for me my consolidaire he
said he said mike i remember
you know gold back in the 70s and the
80s was 600
600 and then it traded down and
and it's gone nowhere for a decade and i
can i'm like
everybody says gold's the ultimate hard
money what's the problem what am i
missing in this picture
and then here's what i realized
goals got an inflation rate of two
percent over time that means a hundred
million dollars is going to be worth
twelve and a half million dollars at two
percent
you're going to lose 80 85
or 87 percent of your wealth if it
inflates at two percent but it's worse
than that
because gold's not pure half the goal
supplies floating around
right it's not all stamped good delivery
bars in london
yeah that's the second problem the third
problem is if gold
price goes up every miner is your enemy
they're going to print more
they're going to mine more gold they're
going to ship more gold they're going to
capital invest in more gold
this is the dilemma of every commodity
business and i used to work for
commodities of dupont
the dilemma is if the price of the
commodity or
let's go back to oil fracking
we fought wars over oil rail we went and
fought wars over
oil to protect our oil what happened
when the price of oil went to a hundred
dollars a barrel
fracking we invented a new technology
to and by the way what happened the us
produced so much oil
it became a world crisis we doubled and
we we produced five million barrels of
water a day and now we produce 10
million bills of oil a day and then 11
and 12.
and everybody was like hold it you're
going to produce too much oil
okay and then you realize opec
the secret to making money in oil is a
cartel
john d rockefeller understood it a
anything that humans can produce with
with their brains
and with capital is going to get over
produced
and that's this and that's the problem
with
uh with using um a commodity
as a money because ultimately if
if gold is successful then intelligent
people are going to produce more
gold and you're going to double triple
quadruple the supply of it
anything with a supernormal return gets
arbitraged away
so those returns are only available for
a period of time everybody gets into the
game
the margins collapse i mean it's
everywhere i mean that that's capitalism
and and so
people that think they're buying hard
gold the problem by
by the way i we could have another cast
i could talk with you for two
hours about about um the
technical problems with gold you know
and but i don't want to get derailed by
that
um i want to i want to basically start
with a simple premise
if i look at bitcoin there's a lot of
people at bitcoin community talk about
stock to flow and how it's going down
and and i appreciate it and i and i
think it's a good contribution but i
have a different take on that as a
public company ceo
which is this every time i print my
share count
there's only one number that matters i
print fully deluded share
count no one ever asked me well how many
shares do you have this minute
nobody ever asked me how many shares are
going to vest with employees next month
or next year
they just ask me one question what's
your fully diluted share account
we take your earnings we divide by that
we're done take your revenue divide by
that we're done
the fully deluded bitcoin count is 21
million
done the fact that it's going to trickle
out about it
i don't care fully diluted bitcoin count
21 million
instead of saying it's the heart stock
to flow is higher
now stock to flow is exponentially going
to infinity
stock to flow is infinite which means
it's infinitely hard because a rational
actor
and i consider myself a rational actor i
didn't buy bitcoin expecting i was
buying
you know this much bitcoin divided by 18
million
500 000 i bought the bitcoin thinking i
was buying that share of 21 million
and i knew that and i and so now we're
back this very
simple thing you take your 100 million
dollars and you hold it for a year in
fiat currency you're going to have
one percent or half a percent of it left
you're going to lose 99
of your money in a hundred years by the
way wrong
i know that to be the case i have a
house in florida
a nice house in florida it would cost
you 15 million dollars to buy that house
20 million today i have the sale
deed for that house in 1930 you know
what the number is on it
a hundred thousand a hundred thousand
dollars in nineteen
thirty count the number of years between
1930
and the year 2020 and figure out what
the
uh depreciation rate was on fiat
currency in the us dollar
i it's it's you're going to lose 99 of
your money if you put it in cash okay so
we all agree on that
okay this is the thing that people don't
say you're gonna lose
for sure 85 of your money if you put it
in gold
you're gonna for sure by the way and
that
you're you're assuming that nobody
invents a better chemistry for gold
we don't find gold anywhere else nobody
invests any more money in gold mining
nobody gets any smarter and the gold
price doesn't go up too much
and if all those things are true and
people still use gold
you're going to lose 85 of your money
but if human ingenuity kicks in gold's a
commodity you're going to lose
90 of your money in gold now if you put
your money in bitcoin
you're keeping it all you're not losing
anything once
if you don't believe in fully deluded
bitcoin count you have a 15
loss in 100 years but if you do believe
in it there's no loss
now let me give you another analogy
you want to cross the atlantic
if you cross the atlantic in a vessel
made of fiat currency it's like
stitching together a bunch of inflatable
rafts
your crop by the way you're crossing the
atlantic and in an inflatable
boat with a leak in it or
you want to cross the atlantic and in a
gold vessel
you're across the atlantic in a wooden
ship oh it's
sort of good but it's rotting you know
it's a wooden ship
it's better than inflatable it doesn't
have a leak in it
but it's wood and it's going to decay
it's decaying two three percent
a year you're crossing the atlantic in
bitcoin
it's a steelhole freighter the thing
about steel
you know like i say to the guys that say
well why do i want to steal
boat they go well because
steel is indestructible and the welds
are harder than the original steel if
you put a hole in steel
and you weld it the weld is stronger
than the original material
steel will last as long as you maintain
it
will last forever okay so rubber boat
wooden boat steel vessel and now here's
an epiphany
right i mean if that's not enough right
i mean
like there's no comparison between
losing 80 to 90 percent of your money
versus not losing any of your money
there's no comparison
but here's another epiphany i'm an
aeronautical engineer
from mit i studied i studied spaceship
design
i studied aircraft design i studied
building design
you know the entire science of civil
engineering requires one element you
know what the element is
steel think about it for a second i
build a building with
with wood you can build a two-story
building
you ever see a five-story wooden
i built you know that's that's fiat i
build a building
of stone you know and masonry
look at all of europe all of beautiful
europe every building in europe
five stories six stories that's as far
as you go
you know with brick what happens when i
invent steel
i build a 50-story building you think
steel is twice as good as bricks
yeah you you can build a hundred story
building right
steel steel is is elemental to or
instrumental to new york city there is
no new york city without steel
you know there is no skyscraper there's
no science of civil engineering until
you invent steel
right you could say iron maybe if you
want but into but without the element
without the element of steel there's no
civil engineering
now flip to air space you know aerospace
you ever see a plane made of steel
no they don't fly steel is the perfect
element except for the fact it's too
heavy to fly
that's why we use aluminum no aluminum
no airplanes no industry nothing
take away aluminum the entire aviation
industry goes to zero
right andrew mellon made his money on
aluminum
andrew carnegie made his money on steel
right these are fundamental things these
were technologists
the entire industry is based on it now
the gold standard good idea in the 19th
century
right the best idea you could have in
the 19th century
but i mean just like wooden ships pretty
good idea to have wooden ships if you're
the british empire if that's the best
you can have
you know now along comes bitcoin
cryptocurrency it's
it's when i say it's harder than gold
i mean it's not just 10 times harder
because it goes
it goes 100 years without losing any of
its value
i say it's harder because it's an
organic
nest of cybernetic hornets
feeding off of encrypted energy
it's a living thing which means that the
miners are going to keep upgrading their
equipment the developer's going to keep
upgrading their development the nodes
are going to change
everybody the ecosystem is going to
change and they're changing
in this terrifying darwinian
capitalistic libertarian aggressive
winner take all hold no bars
you know no you know no one company
country companies holding like that like
i've been
ceo i thought i was right
i was wrong you could be the most
brilliant ceo
at all you know anything that's
controlled by a ceo is crippled
controlled by a state is crippled
controlled by a country it's crippled
this entire thing is its own ecosystem
you know gold is not going to get a
million times smarter in the next 10
years
it's not thinking at all it's a lump of
metal lying there
right what's you know nicholas taleb
wrote anti-fragile
i think taleb is brilliant you know i
love all of his books read every one of
them twice
right uh bitcoin is an anti-fragile
evolving
evolving thing
it's the heart it's hardest currency
because it's getting continually
exponentially harder
it's getting harder but it's also
smarter stronger and faster
than gold right it's smarter because
these com
i i can create a computer program i can
put on a machine behind that
bar and i can have it make a million
trades with your crypto every night
while you're sleeping and move it around
right
but i can't do it with gold if i want to
move a hundred million dollars of gold i
got to put it on a jet fly it around the
world it's 250 000 dollars to
physically deliver 100 million dollars
worth of gold i can physically deliver
100 million
worth of bitcoin in five bucks right
five dollars and
and 30 minutes you know depending upon
how risk-averse you are
but if i if i want to move it i can put
a piece of software on it
by the way ralph you know when i move a
hundred million dollars into a crypto
exchange to buy crypto
i got to talk to like three bankers on
the phone and they're asking me
they're asking me for my birthday ralph
you can go on google
and you can google michael saylor and do
you know what the
i you don't have to click do you know
what google puts
underneath the google for my birthday my
birthday
you know so the banking system is
running about a million times
slower and less secure to move this
stuff around
um when i put it in when i put this this
elemental energy into bitcoin
it's smart because it's getting smart as
fast as the smartest crypto bank can
program something intelligent
and i am in awe of how of how many of
these uh these things are going on so
fast
d5 and c5 right it's not clear to me
whether you're going to use d5
or c5 doesn't matter whatever is going
to work is going to work
it's all happening yeah it's faster
because it's dematerialized gold
i look at all my employees and i say
we're in the virtual wave guys
you can now move at the speed of light
and bend time and space
what are you going to do with it right
if
if i can actually take your 100 million
dollars worth of gold dematerialize it
chop it into 10 million pieces and move
it around the world 100 times a second
something new is going to happen and
then it's
and it's stronger it's stronger because
you can liquidate a hundred million
dollars with the bitcoin on a saturday
afternoon
in a foreign country in a foreign
currency
and you know you can do this and maybe
you might take a three percent haircut
you know you might like oh holy crap
it's volatile it moved down
300 bucks well three percent haircut to
liquidate 100 million dollars of gold on
a saturday afternoon try
doing that in in istanbul
try liquidating 100 million dollars
sitting in a vault in new york city
in tokyo on an afternoon on a weekend
right so the issue is
gold's going to be audited once every by
the way
i apologize for digressing but you can't
make this stuff up it's really hilarious
when i borrow 100 million dollars from a
conventional bank
you know how they verify my collateral
they ask me to have my accountant
prepare a financial statement
as of the end of last fiscal year and so
i actually deliver a statement that has
all of my assets on it
and if i'm borrowing money on
june 30th i'm giving you a january first
financial statement
and and by and i'm asserting that i have
not double pledged the collateral or
committed bank fraud
and my accountant is asserting it and
that's a pretty serious thing
but you know i'm saying it
tongue-in-cheek right yeah that's
ridiculous
why why do people care about publicly
traded companies well
you know public you know a public
company has more credibility than a
private company and
has a lot more pred credibility than a
private individual and here's one reason
why
i and my cfo sign
uh sarbanes-oxley statements financial
reports and every quarter i signed my
financial report
if i lie to you ralph it's a crime
right i go to jail right if a public
company officer
mis uh misrepresents the state of the
balance sheet the state of the business
uh you asked me like how's the future of
the business i'm going to equivocate
i think we're you know the future of the
business will be the future of the
business and we're just really excited
about
working on the future of the business
it's because it's a crime for me to
mislead
okay so so the way that we actually
certify collateral is is via
regulations and criminal statutes and
that's why
the most credible entities in the world
are american
publicly traded companies right because
everybody knows
that if you trade on the nasdaq or the
new york stock exchange
and you're a ceo or a cfo of an america
it if i heard a guy that worked for a
guy that worked for a guy that worked
for a guy that worked for me in a
foreign country
was actually doing something sloppy i'm
thinking well foreign corrupt practices
act makes me criminally liable
for that and that person gets chopped
off okay
so so that's the way that you actually
pledge collateral
normally with bitcoin we've totally
turned his head
anybody can inspect the fact that i own
the bitcoin in one second
yeah and and uh every 10 minutes you
could take a complete audit of
everything i mean i wrote that article
about it being the world's most pristine
collateral i mean
it's perfect for the struck the
foundation stone of everything
as you were talking about you know it's
the steel
of an entire new financial system is
this i i think what you've said is
brilliant
but i don't think it's understood when
you say it's the world's best
collateral the world is operating on
like gold is collateral it gets audited
every seven years
or every three years it might be there
it's impossible to move
and it's impossible because of
rehypothecation
and the reuse of assets right it's not
clear bitcoin
ownership is guaranteed so it's so
pristine the only thing we haven't got
is a yield curve so your third
yes you've got it implicitly in the fact
that it's got a limited supply
but eventually there will be a market
for you to lend out your
your bitcoin and it's going to trade at
a premium
to bonds us bonds because it's like you
lending out a piece of art
well [ __ ] it if somebody's going to
borrow your piece of art they're going
to pay you for it
i totally agree and i i think the yield
curve is coming and when i look at the
forward contracts it's very fascinating
to me
but yeah summary of my entire meandering
analysis is
bitcoin if it's not a hundred times
better than gold
it's a million times better than gold
and there's nothing close
to it and and most people they're
focused upon
stock to flow is better and what they
haven't they haven't factored in
is it the smarter faster stronger makes
it a
million times better and it's steel to
masonry
for the firmament of the 21st century
financial ecosystems
love that analogy so here's another
question for you so you make
the brave decision to do this
it doesn't seem brave to you because it
sounds it feels like the most
intelligent rational decision you can
make right
but yeah everybody else oh my god what's
he doing
so you go to your cfo and go okay
i've got bitcoin currently it's marked
as an intangible we can't we don't get
any appreciation of the value of it
and gap accounting doesn't work how the
hell did you get through that
all that [ __ ] to put it on the balance
sheet and
yeah so not to be marked where you
bought it all
the time so now we shift to the subject
of how do you build consensus
in a in an institution or a publicly
traded company
yeah because yeah it's one thing uh for
me to believe it but
there's a lot of other fiduciaries and
they have to understand it and they have
to assess all the risks
so what happened next is um
i started cheerfully assigning homework
to all the officers and all the
directors of the company right
you know and you can imagine some of
your podcasts got linked to them
a lot of uh pomp's podcast got sent to
them
um eric voorhees debate
famous epic debate with peter schiff
over the future of
of fiat versus bitcoin as the world's
best currency got sent to them
the bitcoin standard uh the bitcoin
center lynn
alden's paper on three reasons i'm now
bullish on bitcoin got sent to them
right um uh andreas antonopoulos is
you know what is bitcoin got sent to
them
you know lots of so lots of compulsory
youtube watching
guys i'm gonna need you to watch these
things on youtube
then i'm going to need you to read this
then lots of individual meetings
meet everybody i'm going to meet you
know
i'm lucky i've got a very intelligent
board i've got a very engaged board i've
got a very
a very entire you know i'm out with i
met with my general counsel
and uh and i said i was worried you know
like general counsel is going to tell
you a million reasons you can't do
something i said
well you know i think we should be
thinking about bitcoin and i you know
and this and this and this and this and
this and this
uh you know and i waited for him to tell
me no way in heck can we ever do this
ever
and he goes yeah that's a very
interesting thesis um
you know i i bought bitcoin two years
ago
[Laughter]
i love it you know like i was like oh i
get my but you know so
it turns out that uh you know i talked
with my with my
board and it turns out that half of them
had already invested in bitcoin
personally so that we went through this
round of
study it think about it evaluate all the
options
meet as a group break after that
you know the cfo went off and he like he
met with our auditors and our
our outside authors and and more
auditors and the nrgc
met with attorneys and more attorneys
and more attorneys than our outside
attorney
and then we started sifting through all
the you know all of the regulatory
filings of everybody
with that you know i went down the
rabbit hole they went down the rabbit
hole
and you know and the board went down a
rabbit hole we all came together and
and i'm just i'm really proud of the
team but uh
but at the same time i'm i i think uh
i think it's it's important to say that
rational people
if they're put if this is put on the
table and if they're given enough time
and the right resources
they all unanimously unanimously come to
the same conclusion
that i come to right no dispute
no dissent everybody's gotta gotta be
part of the process and the
and you got to give everybody time to
absorb it and you got to do your due job
how do you get the order how do you get
the auditors across the line so you read
internal consensus fine okay now you've
got to have the bloody auditors agree
that
you can do this okay well
the auditors uh give you the feedback on
how you're going to account for it
yeah and that's their position and
they're good at telling you how to do
that
right and so we take their advice and at
some point we talk to lots of different
auditors
and i i do think that um that we're
um we're leading the way here
like uh clearly in fact it's news that
we did this
it'll be news when we uh when we put out
our 10
qs and if you want to see exactly how it
gets accounted for people be
looking at the 10 cues to figure out
what does that do the balance sheet and
the p
l and that's right but let me but let me
make one point ral which is
you can run your business in order to
in order to make your gap accounting
beautiful
if you did that you would never issue a
stock option and if you look at every
successful tech company
they they have uh stock option expenses
and
and every screaming success you know
facebook comes public and there's
huge amounts of stock options that
they've issued and they take non-cash
charges for them
so the result is most public companies
have pro
forma results and they have after
adjustments
there are mega adjustments based on
currency fluctuations and all sorts of
non-cash and tangible
things and uh the investment community
looks at those and generally they focus
more on the
as adjusted at you know pro formas you
know as long as you explain what it is
then people don't care
because because gap doesn't necessarily
keep up with the reality of the business
right and like for example if i told you
you know would you buy a company that's
going to go up in value by a factor of
10
if it had a if it printed a gap loss or
would you not
and also the other thing is as you told
me before that the investors valued your
cash at zero
so what the hell you got to lose if you
say well it's a non-zero asset now
and whether it's whether or whether it's
not including your gap accounting
it's like well he wrote it off to zero
anyway so now you can either value it as
an option or not
yeah let's say if we buy bitcoin and it
gets valued as an intangible
and then we're forced to write it down
to down based upon the volatility you
know it could happen we could buy
uh we could buy a bunch of bitcoin it
could be written down by 50 percent
then you have you have a a gap right
down
and intangibly as carries an intangible
on your balance sheet
on the other hand if the value of
bitcoin doubles
if you have a billion dollars of bitcoin
right and
the gap the gap accounting says you're
only showing 200 million the investors
are going to look at that they're
rational
yeah i mean they're right by the way
they're the investors are rational
and they normally will they will
understand that you have a billion
dollars worth of something
even though gap accounting doesn't what
let you mark it as a billion dollars but
if the market is
irrational over the long term you sell
some of the bitcoin buy all your stock
back
right in fact in the extreme if you
if you have ten if your net asset value
is worth more than the value of the
company outstanding you buy your shares
you buy the company at the end of the
day if the bitcoins worth 10 billion
and then and then the accounting says
it's worth zero and if the investors
insist upon looking at the
zero accounting and they value you at
nothing you buy
you buy every single share of the stock
back and you got a private company with
nine billion dollars worth of bitcoin in
it
right but there's a point to what i'm
saying which is
you can't run a business in order to
make
to make the gap accounting optically
look perfect
if you did that you wouldn't be in any
business that outstrips the rate of
of accountants that have a 30-year lag
yeah and also just the point being is
is you have a reputation the firm's
resistance for a long time
as long as you can explain to people
what you're doing nobody cares either
like it or they don't that's what
shareholding is
and that's okay i think i think we have
an obligation
to be as clear and articulate
and respectful to our shareholders as we
possibly can be
and if you look at what we've done over
the past three months
we have tried to be extraordinarily
transparent and methodic
you know first we say we think we've got
a you know
a treasury issue and we we need to
either buy our shares back or invest our
shares
or sorry we need to buy our shares back
or invest investor treasury
then we said we've done the analysis and
and we're going to do a 250 million
dollar tender
and we're going to do 250 million dollar
investment or done in bitcoin
then we let the investors decide what
they want to do
that's their choice right and then the
investors decide to tender some of their
shares
and we buy some of those shares and we
have some extra cash
then we take the extra cash well and
then we ta
you know we tell the market it looks
like we have some extra cash
by the way our treasury policy is to
invest in bitcoin
then we invest in bitcoin right and uh
and if anybody if anybody's holding the
stock right this
is very important for them that they
understand what's going on and
i i can't tell you how to think about
this
right but by the way it's like you know
you would hear rumors like
oh i don't think investor will like it
so we went we met with all the investors
you know it's like 80 of us yeah that's
a probably that's kind of a good idea
you know that's kind of interesting
right right and and uh so and then
they're like they go to me well this one
investor he was kind of concerned about
it
and he had a problem with it you know i
met with him he goes
well why don't you just like uh buy back
all the stock and
i said um i said well you know the issue
is we would decapitalize the company if
we buy back all the stock we'll have no
treasury assets
and if we have no treasury assets no
capital then
that puts our customers at risk and so
you know i have to be able to
my customers are governments banks
big organizations i need to be able to
represent to them that for the next
30 years they can count on me so i can't
like drain the entire assets of the
company
you know even though you know and and
that's the problem with just buying
with draining and treasury i have to
have a treasury balance
and so then i proceeded to explain the
bitcoin thesis to him
he cuts me off halfway through he goes
oh yeah i get it i own bitcoin
okay so so the point is this is an
example somewhere everybody's really
afraid
everybody says oh that's a really ballsy
risky you know
they're all along themselves they're all
along bitcoin
it's the same in the hedge fund world
paul tudor jones goes you know you're
the paul tudor james of the
of the corporate world paul was the
first guy to stand up and go well i
bought bitcoin in my fun
well guess what every bloody fun manager
i know
owned some bitcoin already and you know
not to beat up on paul tudor jones if
he's
listening but paul like if you believe
in it buying one percent
but one percent is like i go to vegas
and i want to i'm the rich guy that goes
to vegas with my friends
and i want to convince them i'm cool and
i go yeah i really get gambling
i really believe the gaming so i take
out a hundred thousand dollars i put on
a table i
pay blackjack for a few hours and i
impress my
my friends that i'm really cool that's
that's one view
on the other hand if you're really a
baller
you're howard hughes he went to vegas
howard hughes bought vegas right if you
really believe in gambling if you get
gambling you don't gamble a hundred
thousand dollars or one percent of your
wealth in vegas
you buy the casino yep but paul doesn't
care
he's rich enough so for him and
again whatever he says and does are two
different things
i know him very well from the past and
paul can move his positions on a dime
we've seen him be you know three or four
times levered
you know the guy knows what he's doing
so even if he says one percent that was
that snapshot of that afternoon that he
finished that note
it could be anything okay and you know
and i noticed like the hedge fund guys
they either say the opposite of what
they're doing
or they say or they talk their book and
it's amusing to do that but i mean just
to state what i what i think is pretty
obvious
once you understand bitcoin
right you're you you have anxiety about
being short
once you understand it completely
terrified of being not having enough
and if that's the case then if you're
running 10 billion dollars of money
you go take one or two billion dollars
of it
or three or you just buy it all
like i mean don't you sit around i sit
around and think
i i'm trading this bitcoin row and and
to buy this much you can't buy it in a
minute or an hour
you can't even buy it a day i'm when i'm
in the market i'm buying bitcoin
four days in a row every minute are you
doing it yourself
well i haven't given it to anybody else
i gotta i i control
it all but you know yeah i i yeah
take if it's worth doing do it yourself
so here's i wanna ask you two questions
yeah questions
the practicalities right so there is the
the terrifying moment when you transfer
your bitcoin
from the exchange to your hard wallet
and you're like [ __ ] i hope i put in the
right numbers
because there is nobody i can call up at
the bank say oh i made a mistake in the
transfer
did you not get the terror of doing that
and how do you store it
okay well so a couple of points i'll
make one
one point i can't give you too much
details
about about how we do it and how we
handle our crypto just for security
reasons
obviously right i mean in private
off the record we talk about it but in
public i can't
um generally our approach is to work
with institutional grade crypto
exchanges and institutional grade crypto
custodians and and then like handling
nitroglycerin
handle it very carefully right i handle
my crypto very carefully
and that means that before i you know
we're white listing everything every
which way and i'm moving 0.01 bitcoin
before i move
anything material right and you know
like
you know the first time it took me like
60 minutes or 90 minutes to get it
confirmed man i was like
you know i'm working on but let me make
the next point
which is if you want to if you want to
trade this stuff you need a great team
of of
like over-the-counter uh brokers you
work with and they have to have great
technology because
you're going to buy this thing in 89 000
small bytes of 0.2 bitcoin each
if i'm in the market you don't know i'm
in the market right like i get a
a laugh when i watch people come in and
hammer the price up by a hundred bucks
and and people are thinking is that some
whales is that
well if you wanted to buy a hundred
million dollars of it there's no way
you're chasing it
up 100 bucks so i'm waiting for someone
to panic
at which point i'm going to buy 10
million dollars in one minute why they
think they're getting the better of me
right that's the way you're going to do
that and then my last point
is while i'm sitting there for all those
days
and i'm trading this stuff and i'm like
day and night right day and night
trading it everybody thinks well
bitcoin's too volatile
when people like me or these other
institutions get into it
we've got computer programs that are
trying to buy it every minute of the day
day and night and pretty soon there'll
be one set of computer programs talking
another set of computer problems
there's no people involved right there's
no people
involved and the volatility is
collapsing right it's already collapsing
anybody that's watched this stuff over
the past three months you would see the
volatility is coming in
the other day i'm watching it bitcoin's
less volatile than apple
it's definitely less volatile than it's
less welded than amazon less volatile
than all the big tech companies
that's a story my last point it's like
who are these people that are selling it
to me like i can't believe
someone is willing to sell it to me but
i'm i'm thanking my lucky stars
like hit me again hit me again hit me
again
right and i see these guys on crypto
twitter and they're like yeah
sailor's gonna buy it and he's gonna
dump it or he's gonna buy it
he's gonna like buy another company with
it i like
he's gonna buy it until he gets like
this profit he's gonna do whatever i'm
like
they don't really there's a lot of
traders in the market they don't
understand the mindset of longs like
i'm buying it for the dude that's gonna
work for the dude that's gonna get hired
by the guy
that takes over my job in a hundred
years
i'm not selling it right when it goes up
by a factor of 100
i might be borrowing a little a little
to go buy something that i want but this
is
what am i going to buy with it
right that's better than what i'm buying
right every other treasury asset
and i count 250 trillion dollars worth
of stuff
this is not about gold right gold fixed
income
sovereign debt cash equivalents every
other treasury assets got a negative
real
yield what am i going to buy with it
no there's no other asset to buy with it
and that's why i got into the
irresponsibly long thing in the end i
just looked at everything and
said right fine you can trade around do
stuff but if there's anything you
actually want to put a real position in
for an extended period of time
that there is only one thing i can
really see you know i've got
gold in a storage vault and i'm like i
can't see the point
you're tipping me over the edge of
saying i can't see the point i like gold
i have no problem with it
you know i'm not going to hold it for
100 years so i don't really care but
i kind of like bitcoin's gonna swallow
the world if i told you gold has a
has a minus it's got a minus three
percent
real yield yeah but you know i don't
mind because
i'm likely to hold gold three years i'm
not you know bitcoin's different for me
but gold for three years through this
particular
transition phase right so maybe it goes
up 100 and i lose 10 percent
in in negative real yield that's okay to
me
is that time horizon i i think that um
and this is where time horizon matters
so much if your time horizon
is 12 months and you got you you're a
hedge fund guy you're like you know
you're like looking at like the
volatility
curve wave right you guys are trading
gamma and stuff like that which like i
can't even
i got degrees from mit and i can't
figure out gamma yet
so i need a speech on that but you're
living in the world
of like minutes to days to weeks to
months to years
let's say when you go out more than a
decade
if you go out more than a decade all
this stuff all the noise drops away
everything gets really clear
totally great when you come in less than
five years
there's a lot of different options you
got to consider so the real question is
what's your time horizon here
yeah 100 agree and you know and that's
exactly
the conclusion but for me
why i'm so interested now of all time
really intensely focused is across
almost every single time horizon
it now looks superior that won't always
be the case there'll be a time when
whether it's technology stocks or
whatever it is will outperform bitcoin
but when i look at almost every time
horizon you know
going from a month that would be the
shortest i'd look at
a month out to 100 years bitcoin looks
like it's going to be everything for the
time being
great that's a home run opportunity so
rao that makes the decision easy
yeah i need to sell my gold and that's
why i think
if you're really a hedge fund person and
you really get bitcoin
and the decision's so easy are you
really going to tell me you've decided
to take one percent and take a
you know and hedge and try it like if
anybody really gets bitcoin
there's nobody investing one percent of
their portfolio in it
no no exactly
my biggest position by far in a way
and almost you know a very significant
part of my
liquid net assets you know outside my
properties and shareholdings and stuff
you know
in real vision or whatever you know it's
bitcoin is the bet
you know i said the other day i said you
know for this
this is not a speculation nor
is it a hedge this is a deliberate
corporate strategy to adopt the bitcoin
standard that's what we're doing right
and
and i think that lots of people want to
minimize what's going
on here or they're afraid they're in
fear to actually come out and say what
they believe
mike they don't understand yet people
are
it's like as you know you suddenly get
to that point where it's like
oh christ i get it now you kind of think
you get it for a while
then you question yourself then you sort
of get it then you realize you know
nothing
and then you come to the epiphany is not
knowing
anything about it apart from one core
set of things that this is superior to
anything else around it
and it could be an entire ecosystem a
whole structure that's all you need to
know
after that it's like okay i've got hard
money with upside
brilliant and now so now we're sitting
here waiting to see how long it's going
to take for all the other rational
actors in the world
to come to the same conclusion exactly
right and i
you know that's that's the journey you
know we're launching this
crypto channel and real vision it's part
of the same bet i know where this is all
going
and i've been talking about this in 2012
and i knew that macro and crypto were
about to collide and i knew it was going
to happen in the next recession or
i didn't i guess it would and here we
are
and then what's happened is you've
actually moved it on further
by saying okay it's not just about
markets and
investments everything else we're now
talking about a new standard
that becomes the new gold standard
i.e corporations around the world apple
where their balance sheet and everybody
else
should think of this as a reserve asset
which was my point
that i've been talking about is this is
the world's most pristine reserve asset
and that's what you're doing
you bought a reserve asset and put it on
your balance sheet
brilliant imagine a ceo of a
construction company that said we
thought we'd start building
buildings with steel this year
and every other construction company is
saying oh what a risky thing
that's too expensive as well and all the
other arguments that you would have had
we've not tested it in earthquakes or
whatever it is i think we've covered a
lot of ground and i think
we'll probably have another conversation
down the track because there's a load of
things i love the philosophical
things that you're thinking about and
just also your you know how you've
observed the tech industry and
everything else so
i'm definitely going to get back in
touch with you again and we'll as your
thinking evolves and that's other
people's thinking evolve it's just nice
because you're outside of the noise of a
lot of the financial market stuff and
you look at it differently
it's brilliant and just let bravo you
that as you said it's a logical
conclusion but most people haven't
reached it yet and
you've done something really inspiring
for a lot of people well i
like i would return a compliment though
and point out that
that i was obsessing over everything
that you published
before we made this decision and so so
the truth is you're more that you and
and the entire crypto community
that went out there especially on
youtube and published everything they're
the inspiration and and
it's a wonderful community and there's
you can learn a lot on youtube
so so if people ever wonder does anybody
listen to the stuff we say
the answer is yeah i listened everybody
every one of my board members listened
all right so you so we wouldn't be here
i wouldn't be here talking to you
nor would i have done anything had you
not said
what you said when you said it that's
very cool
welcome the opportunity in the future
thanks for having me but yes i i loved
it i reached out on twitter i said
listen i'd love to tell your story
you're like and you replied
i love real vision and that's great
we're all doing we're all doing the
right thing spreading the word
mike brilliant to speak to you thank you
ever so much for your time i'm sure
people are going to get a lot out of
this
thank you ralph thank you for watching
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