Michael Saylor Interview: The Greatest Bitcoin Explanation of All Time

I mean like it's going to millions of

coin and it could be tens of millions of

coin today we interview Bitcoin

billionaire and founder of micro

strategy Michael sailor Capital flows to

security it flows to where it's treated

the best as he shares his ultimate

Bitcoin forecast for 2025 and Beyond

it's flowing into Bitcoin because it's

running away from Russia and it's

running away from China and it's running

away from Africa and it's running away

from Venezuela and Cuba and it's running

away from South America it's even

running away from watch today's whole

video Michael also reveals the biggest

lie with Quantum Computing and Bitcoin

you know the entire Willow thing is a

successful marketing stunt also his

never before heard prediction on the

future of ethereum and salana the path

is open for stable coin that to go from

$150 billion to a trillion dollar to1

trillion click the like button to

support me let's start just for all the

new people that have entered crypto in

this last year that are going to enter

crypto in this next year I know altcoin

daily we've had hundreds of thousands of

new subscribers just in this last year

for the new people could you clearly

explain how Bitcoin goes from 100K per

coin today to 13 million per coin by

2045 well um we have to start with first

principles um Bitcoin is the world's

first perfect monetary asset and by

perfect I mean hard capped at some fix

amount um every other U monetary asset

you could use as a long-term store of

value has some uh leakage or inflation

in it whether it's gold or

silver or real estate or um art or

whatever it is there's uh there's

entropy there's

degradation and uh so the ideal perfect

monetary asset would be some fixed

amount of something for the next

thousand years or 10,000 years and so

bitcoin's the first thing like that even

things we think that are scares like

real estate we can make more real estate

we make more waterfront property even

half of Boston and half of Miami Beach

is man-made waterfront property so you

start with that idea of scarcity so why

does it go up in value it goes up

because the supply of dollars is

increasing 7% a year for the past 100

years and the supply of weak currents is

more like

14% h a year um and that means they the

dollar loses 99.9% of its value over 100

years a weak currency would lose you

know

99.9% of its value sometimes over 20

years so uh so the reason that the value

of scarce desirable stuff goes up is

because it's difficult to manufacture

with uh a factory

uh you ever go to Hershey's Pennsylvania

you see a factory and they've spit out

candy bars and they spit out candy bars

at 50,000 an hour in a box and you can't

create 50,000 candy bars but they did it

very well that's why they created a

company so if a factory can make it the

price is going down if a politician can

print it or declare it the price is

going down if a technology or if a robot

can create it if a technologist can make

it cheaper if it's subject to more law

if the AI can spit it out you don't want

to store your you know your monetary

wealth and anything that human Ingenuity

or politics creates more of so that just

leaves you with things like da Vinci

paintings you like scarce sort of dead

people you like um you would prefer

beachfront property in Palm Beach over

Waterfront it's harder to create Beach

than it is to create Waterfront and when

you look at those things you know an

acre of land in Miami beach has gone up

a factor of thousand in 100 years uh

beachfront property in Palm Beach might

have gone up 2,000 I mean these things

went from $110,000 an acre to 20 or 30

or 40 million an acre so the general

idea is is uh the currency Supply is

increasing there are certain scarce

desirable assets that are not increasing

very fast Bitcoin is hard capped it's

not increasing at all so why is it going

up uh to 13 million of coin well for the

last 10 years it's been appreciating 60%

a year on average for the past four

years 60% a

year okay the S&P index is increasing

about uh 15% a year for the past four

years um the money supply the dollar is

increasing somewhere between 7 and 10% a

year maybe 10% a year for the past four

years so so once you understand that

Bitcoin is simpler more

thermodynamically

sound than an equity

portfolio right that the thing that's

going up a bit faster than the inflation

rate is a diversified portfolio of high

quality companies like Tesla and Apple

and Google and the like they can go they

can maybe outperform a couple of percent

due to human Ingenuity and robots and Ai

and mors law

technology um

but companies have surfaces so companies

have counterparty risk the risk factors

of companies are they might get sued for

antitrust you know China doesn't like

Nvidia Europe might tax Apple uh a union

might unionize Amazon uh the US

government might Sue Microsoft right if

it's a really good company it's going to

get a regulatory Onslaught and if it's a

bad company it's going to get crushed by

a bigger company and then maybe it just

gets unlucky because of a war or famine

or hurricane or bad weather or maybe

you're located in a city and the tax

rate triples and so there's a parade of

horribles that cause you to lose money

on uh a corporate investment or a

financial investment or maybe you have

the best company in the world and it

happens to be in Venezuela and the

government changes or you know the

people used to have really good uh

companies in Cuba and then castra took

over and then all of a sudden it becomes

illegal or the currency collapses or

they expropriate your property you have

the best oil company in Venezuela and

then the government takes it okay or

maybe you have a great company in Russia

and the currency collapses like it did

in 98 or maybe you have a great company

in Brazil and the currency collapses

like it did about 30 years ago and

so things that are in the real world

things that are subject to political uh

fate or weather or war or famine or

competition or maybe you have the

world's greatest um photo company like

Kodak oops or

Xerox right um the world's full of

examples of really great companies and

maybe really great product Pro uh maybe

have great land maybe you own buildings

but the buildings were in uh Egypt and

there's a coup or maybe the buildings

were in downtown Afghanistan you know

and Cabo oops okay so what is bitcoin

well it's it's not in the real world

world it's not a

company there's no counterparty risk to

a company no counterparty risk to a

culture no counterparty risk to a

currency no counterparty risk to a

creditor right you're stripping away

counterparty risks and so when you strip

away all the risk you get pure digital

property why is it going to go up it's

going to go up because um capital is

Flowing from the more entropic state

from the state of anxiety and risk and

confusion uh toward uh the more ordered

State a less risky State think of water

at the top of a mountain why does the

water flow

downhill accidental the waterfall scary

turbulence but what if it stops it's

flowing downhill because of physics

because it's a lower energy State for

the water to be at sea level than for

the water to be one mile up um why is

money flowing into Bitcoin well I'm

going to take all your money put it in

random countries and random banks in

Africa maybe I Spirit it with a magic

spell and then I say okay it's Monday

morning your your money is in random

Banks and random countries in Africa

would you like to bring it back to the

US or would you like to leave it

there right accidental no you're going

to bring it back to a place you feel

comfortable Capital flows to security it

flows to where it's treated the best and

so money is Flowing Capital I'm using

money as a phrase for long-term capital

it's flowing into Bitcoin because it's

running away from Russia and it's

running away from China and it's running

away from Africa and it's running away

from Venezuela and Cuba and it's running

away from South America it's even

running away from Europe if you ask the

Europeans the very simple test uh do you

prefer the digal dollar the digital Euro

99 to1 they prefer the dollar to the

euro in their own country they don't

want the Euro everybody wants the dollar

everybody wants to live in the US

everybody wants their their property and

the safe Apex network of the world so

capital is flowing into Bitcoin at

60% the traditional method uh of storing

your long-term capital is the S&P index

is

15% what's going to happen is that more

and more capital is going to flow from

the 15% to the 60% more capital is going

to flow from the 20th century to the

21st century you got a billion dollars

of warehouses built in 1980 they're

rusting right they're falling apart

you're going to have to rebuild them you

want to rebuild them for another 40-year

run or you want to put it into Bitcoin

right so money money flows from the past

to the Future money flows from physical

to digital money flows from high risk to

low RIS risk money flows from insecure

to secure money flows from the East to

the West Bitcoin simply represents the

highest form the the least disorderly

least risky form of property rights the

60% will track toward the 15 so over

time uh the SNP index and Bitcoin will

head toward each other so what do I

expect I think Bitcoin as it gets bigger

goes from 60% growth rate to 58 to 55 to

52 to 50 to 48 to 38 to 35 to

33 you know and and the traditional

world the 500 you know the $150 trillion

dollar of traditional equities that's

that's basically a 15 perent or 12 to 15

percenter they'll start to incorporate

Bitcoin maybe they'll start to creep up

toward Bitcoin but they'll also struggle

with all the entropic risk and compet

competition and weather and War and

famine so they're always going to

struggle bitcoin's going to become half

the size of equity it'll start to head

up toward the size of equity and then

there's $300 trillion do of fixed income

bonds preferred stocks all sorts of um

uh ETFs that hold fixed income

instruments currency equivalent

sovereign debt that's that yields about

5% right now so 5% before tax maybe 3 or

4% after tax so as people get more

comfortable with

Bitcoin they're going to move money

toward Bitcoin and then companies like

micro strategy well we're going to

create an equity that pulls capital from

the equity Capital markets from the

Magnificent 7 from the S&P it'll flow

into micro strategy stock and then we

will create bonds and the bonds will pay

you twice as much or three times as much

as the bonds in the traditional Capital

Market so as we issue those bonds the

capital that's in fixed income will jump

onto a Bitcoin back Bond and the equity

will jump onto a Bitcoin backed equity

and over time you've got $500 trillion

doll of this traditional Capital think

of it as sitting up on that Mountaintop

and it wants to go to ground it wants to

go to a simpler more elegant less risky

less disordered State a lower energy

state

uh you know uh water goes from Steam uh

you go from Steam to water and you go

from water to ice and every time you

change that phase enormous amount of

energy gets given up and if you want to

go the other way you have to put energy

into it right you have to cook the ice

to get it to be water you have to boil

the water to get it to be steamed so

this is all just economic physics or

thermodynamics and what do I think you

know I think over 21 years Bitcoin goes

from from 60% AR down to 20%

AR and and if you blend it it's like an

average of 29% AR and if you crank 29%

ARR into a 21-year model that takes you

from where Bitcoin was which was about

55,000 a coin in the middle of

2024 when I was at Bitcoin Nashville and

I gave that speech and I gave that

forecast Bitcoin is about 55,000 or

60,000 and uh it just climbs up with

some volatility you know it surges up it

crashes down it surges up it crashes

down the serpentine and it climbs to 13

million of coin in the year

2045 and as it climbs it becomes a

greater amount of the world's Capital

instead of being $2 trillion dollar it

becomes $280 trillion but you know the

amount of wealth in the world goes from

900 trillion to 4,000 trillion and

there's a lot of bonds and there's a lot

of real estate there's a lot of

equity and it's not like Bitcoin eats

everything it's just like Bitcoin goes

from being a tenth of 1% of the world's

wealth you know to being

s% of the world's wealth or something

like that you know and for people that

want to play with that if you Google

Bitcoin 24 you'll find the model on

GitHub you can go download the model you

can crank in your assumptions about

inflation and Innovation rates and all

the monetization and demonetization of

the asset classes and and you'll come to

your own you know bu case and bare case

and base case where Bitcoin is

headed but you know at the end of the

day the big idea is half the money in

the world uh is just long-term capital

people just want to preserve their

wealth I mean it's the greatest use case

in the world is just wealth preservation

I just want to take my money and I want

to put it in a savings account in

cyberspace I want to Bank in cyberspace

that won't rip me off and I want to buy

an asset that uh no entrepreneur can

make

more of no AI can make more of no

politician can make more of I want to

know I'm buying 121 millionth of all of

the money in the bank for the next

thousand years and I don't want a

management that can kind of freeze my

assets steal my money debase the

currency and and so Bitcoin is that very

simple idea and that I think is my

elaborate explanation for why I think

it's going to 13 million of coin you

know with plus or minus you know that

was my base

case exactly and so to cap put a cap on

this just for clarity that based on your

assumptions that was your base case

meaning there's a bull case over 13

million and what was what was the bare

case like at I think like the range was

from three million to 49 million right I

mean like it's going to millions of coin

and it could be tens of millions of coin

right and we're speaking on the future

obviously because that's what we all

care about is Bitcoin Believers but you

know I remember when you first publicly

announced you were in into bitcoin

bitcoin's price was around $10,000 per

coin so that's at least a 10x so you

know my question for you you know you

faced a lot of detractors my question to

you is do you have a message for your

haters now that Bitcoin has cleared

100K

um bitcoin's Bitcoin want you back it's

never too late to uh Embrace Bitcoin you

know I was a hater uh when Bitcoin was

$100 a coin yeah you know and uh you

know some people get on board at $10 a

coin some at 100 some at a th000 some at

10,000 it's not too late it's still

pretty early I mean uh it's a

99% discount you know 10 million a coin

you're still going to get a 100x if you

join now it's it's like the guy saying

damn uh it's

1750 and I didn't buy Manhattan real

estate a 100 years ago and now it's

going to cost me more so like

everybody's saying that they're always

thinking it's too late it's not too late

I mean it's still you're still at the

point where just one two% of the

population of the world really

understands what's going on you're

you're I think we're like getting into

the third

inning okay how in like 50 to 60 million

Americans own Bitcoin According to some

research yet there are so many people in

the world who don't own any Bitcoin

today you can get 01 Bitcoin for $11,000

it used to be cheaper um how important

is it for somebody to get off zero and

accumulate that first

01 well I I think everybody that has a

longterm uh Capital plan if you have a

portfolio of of assets or if you have

money that you don't need for four years

I think uh the reasonable thing to do is

you want to have some portion of it in

digital property in in digital Capital

that's Bitcoin and I I think 1% 2% is

like an insurance policy I mean it's

like it's not going to it you'll you're

buying an insurance policy so you won't

be totally wrecked 10 20 30% would be

like a nice a nice allocation right if

you had a third of your assets in

Magnificent Seven stocks or high quality

companies and if you had 20 or 30% in

real estate or kind of high quality

Collectibles you want to figure out what

do you want to give to your grandkids

what do you want to retire on something

scarce desirable that you want to hold

that you think that someone wealthier

than you more sophisticated than you

might want to buy from you 10 20 30 40

years from now if you think about it

like that then I think Bitcoin

definitely ought to be part of that

portfolio I mean everybody's got to

decide what percentage of their

portfolio but um at this point we've

kind of we've moved past the point where

you would be thinking that the

government's going to ban it or take

away from you you're just buying digital

property so would you say there's almost

nothing more important if you have zero

Bitcoin than getting off zero and

getting that first point

Z1 look if you're a mega billionaire if

you're Warren Buffett I guess it's not

really that important to him but I think

if you're middle class like if you like

money if you want money there's nothing

more important it's the future of money

money me defining money as as long-term

store of value you know I mean you're

not going to get rich by holding

currencies in your pocket you you ought

to minimize the amount of currency you

hold but if you want to get rich the

time tested way to get rich is levered

long property you buy scarce desirable

property and that will preserve your

wealth the way you preserve your wealth

is you buy scarce desirable property the

way you get wealth the way you create

wealth is you borrow the money from the

bank to buy the

property so rich families it's like I'm

gonna buy a billion dollars of real

estate but I don't have the billion so I

managed to figure out how to borrow 900

million and then I went and I raised

another 70 million in equity and I got a

30 mli 30% promote and he ended up when

the dust settle with 30% of 10 billion

do worth of real estate and I made3

billion because you know I got highly

levered so I I think finding a way uh to

get scarce desirable property and lever

into it is how you get rich if you want

to stay Rich then uh you want to buy

something that's going to appreciate

faster than the monetary inflation rate

after

taxes and that means that's why you

can't store Capital in bonds because no

bonds will give you more than the

inflation rate after taxes that means

that your best bet is you know you pick

the next Nvidia but you know good luck

right it's like you got to pick one out

of 500 maybe you just you grab a you

know portfolio of Mag seven stocks and

maybe you can beat but otherwi if you're

not going to do that then Bitcoin is the

best idea look I

think Bitcoin is plus 60% a year for the

past four years the S&P is plus 5% the

mag 7 is like plus 25 to 30 % you know

this is not complicated rocket science

um the monetary inflation rate it feels

like it's 10% to me so you know should

you if if you if you don't care about

money then I guess it doesn't matter but

if if you care about money if you want

more or you want to keep the money you

have the hurdle rate you know for

practical purposes is is 10% and you the

conventional approach is you buy S&P 500

Index and you beat it by a little bit

and then the you know real estate's not

that good because with real estate

you're probably growing less than the

15% and you're getting property tax and

the property tax is a killer for you

over

time Michael sailor bitcoin's either

going to zero or a million what if

you're wrong about the million what

could go wrong in general that takes it

to zero realistically

[Music]

I guess space aliens come down with the

you know space alien cyber virus and

they hate the human race and they decide

that the best thing in the human race is

Bitcoin and they try to kill it um I I

rather think that they'll probably just

zap us all you know before they bother

to kill Bitcoin some some extinction

level event you know like this you're on

a ship what could go wrong with your

family oh ship could sink I guess

rapidly I mean the Titanic level

extinction level event you know an

asteroid could hit the earth I mean

that's what took out the dinosaurs so I

mean I would acknowledge that you could

have an existential threat or extinction

level event that but that's the case

with everything that you can possibly

own I mean that's that's an argument for

not crossing the street that's an

argument for not putting food in your

mouth that's an argument for not

drinking and that's an argument for not

owning anything you know it might poison

you or it might collapse to zero but uh

but beyond that I think most of the

turbulence in the future is just

political uh political volatility it's

like oh the Chinese are going to block

it oh that's bad oh the Chinese going to

embrace it that's bad oh the Chinese

didn't block it that's bad oh the

Chinese you know it's like people

speculating about what the Chinese will

do what the Russians will do you know

what the government will do and that

causes you know they're going to raise

the interest rates that's bad they're

going to lower the interest rates that's

bad

the entire asset is very exposed to

macroeconomic

volatility I think it's a feature I

think it's what makes it the greatest

asset in the world but uh there are a

lot of people that don't like volatility

and they would just like everything to

be smooth and calm and easy they're

always going to perceive it as a little

bit

scary I think that we're Beyond we're

beyond the point where it's going to

fail didn't fail it succeeded is it

going to be banned no right the The Big

Three is will it be hacked will it be

banned will it be copied and the answer

is it hasn't been hacked it isn't

getting banned it has been copied but

it's winning it's the best copy right it

was a copy of other stuff that came

before it it was a bit better and other

people have copied it but the copies

have been deemed a bit worse the smart

money in the world has decided this is

the

winner you know it's a

it's like the economic protocol for

Prosperity why do you speak English

because it's the economic it's a

language protocol for Prosperity you

know why do you use base 10 math why do

you use uh Zoom right now right why do

you use the internet right theoretically

the internet could stop Zoom could stop

I could change to

Chinese I

could theoretically but the point is

it's the protocol chosen by all the

people on the planet to go about their

business they didn't have to choose

English it could have been French that

might have been decided at waterl Orit

bit before that right could have been

Latin didn't work out that way right it

works out to be English so I think at

this

point it you know if you think of it as

a

protocol it's like well what if people

stop using 10 and nine and the number

eight what if they start using base 16

it's like well I'm building my computer

programs on Bas 10 but but but what if

they switch to Swahili and use base 32

because I I read somewhere it's better

it's like yeah well maybe but right now

the entire world thinks this one is

better and and we'll use this one

because all the smart rich people use

this one and when all the smart rich

people decide to move to a different

protocol at least I'll be rich and I can

move my money to the new protocol with

them

right and so that's that's why Bitcoin

is winning that's why it makes sense to

be invested in it so Google's Willow and

Quantum Computing I know it's not ready

yet but let's say in 15 years when

Quantum Computing goes into full effect

what will happen to

bitcoin you know the entire Willow thing

is a successful marketing stunt but they

created a Quantum Benchmark that has no

practical use and then they showed that

their quantum computer with no practical

use is really good at The Benchmark that

they created right so if it had a

practical use they would have turned it

on to mind Bitcoin and they would be

making $50 million a day but they're not

so I guess it you know pick a they could

use it for a lot of things it is a um a

proof of concept that they can create

something which may or may not be useful

sometime in the future and I you know in

the history of science you know they're

proof of Concepts and sometimes they're

five years before they work and

sometimes they're 50 years you know we

had Google Glass you remember when we

finally commercialized that that started

like 2012 or 2013 and here we are and

you know 12 years later and no Google

Glass so um nobody knows when we will

have a powerful enough computer to crack

modernday encryption but when we do it

it will be a problem for everybody

including Google it crashes their own

stock guys if it crashes Microsoft and

Google and meta and apple and everything

in the S&P and all the Magnificent 7 and

all the robots and all the drones fall

out of the sky and the banking system

fails and the governments of the world

fail when someone does that and what's

the answer intelligent computer

scientists will upgrade all the

encryption in order to in order to uh be

Quantum resistant or whatever there's

going to be a

continual upgrade to encryption

technology defense technology to address

the threats as they form bitcoin's just

software right as I said it's a

protocol you know it's like what do you

expect your bank to do when it's no

longer secure you expect the bank to

upgrade the software what do you think

all the smart people with the money in

the world are going to do when someone

invents a computer that might threaten

their money they're going to upgrade the

software and upgrade the hardware to

defeat the threat so I you know

I it it's it's not like anything it's

not unlike every other issue in the

world what happens when I am you know

you don't have a word for this in the

English language so I heard everybody

switching to Russian because you don't

have a word in the English language to

deal with the quantum threat and my

answer is when it's really a threat

we'll invent the word and we'll stick

with English right so the protocols

evolve life is going to move

forward smart people when they're under

threat are just going to upgrade their

defenses and that's what I expect with

Bitcoin just like I expect it with

everything else you use in your life

that requires encryption of any

sort let's pivot a little bit and

actually zoom out I don't want to talk

about an existent existential threat but

let's talk about Wall Street now getting

involved in Bitcoin and crypto and

here's the thing Michael don't even try

and deny it Wall Street is known to

manipulate markets when they get long

they get loud when they want a better

price they start propagating uncertainty

Now That Wall Street is in and they're

increasingly getting more in do you

think bitcoin's price is being

manipulated by Big Wall Street

Wales I think um when the price moves in

random directions on Saturday night or

Sunday morning or during the day and

when it moves in the opposite direction

of the way that it ought to naturally

move I think there's someone with a lot

of capital that's either panicked and

they're doing something that I deem to

be stupid or foolish or I think there's

someone with a lot of capital that has a

different agenda than than the rest of

us and we don't understand it and that

creates

volatility I don't think it's just Wall

Street I mean the truth is uh bitcoin's

just a free market it's the freest

Market in capital in the world and the

definition of free market is anybody can

manipulate it any way they want until

they run out of money so if you have a

100 billion dollar of Bitcoin and on

Saturday night you want to sell all

hundred billion dollar of Bitcoin all

the way down to one penny maybe you can

do

it and maybe you have an agenda to do it

I'll probably be buying it when it gets

down to the one penny maybe when it gets

to the $1 I mean if you want to call it

manipulation you can but I don't I

wouldn't refer it to manipulation as

much as enable it's enabling you to do

it right bitcoin's volatile it's always

going to be more volatile than the S&P

the S&P is Vol 15 and bitcoin's Vol 60

it's always more volatile but the reason

it's more volatile is because if you had

a billion dollars and you were in Japan

on Saturday night and you just had a

panic attack and decided the world's

going to plunge into chaos and if you

wanted to take A1 billion doll or a100

billion dollar short position on the

economy the only way you could do it was

Bitcoin but Bitcoin would give you not

just the ability to short the market it

would give you the ability to short the

market in one minute it would give you

the ability to short the market with

100x leverage or 50x leverage or 20x

leverage okay the truth is on Wall

Street you know normally you can't even

short more than 2x like it's very

difficult for people to get extreme

lovers I guess in the CMA Market they

get a bit more leverage in the future so

there they can bring more leverage but I

mean Bitcoin is really providing

everybody in the world with the greatest

degree of liquidity and leverage and

credit and maybe you're a fool to short

it but maybe you're a fool to go long

the other way but the point is that's

what makes markets everybody's got their

opinion you know and you might think

that you know better but who if somebody

wants to panic sell a billion dollars of

Bitcoin on Saturday night because they

heard that missiles got launched because

they saw it on X from a stupid troll

account you know your position is either

you're not allowed to do it I'm going to

censor the transaction because you're

just not allowed and I'm I'm the god

king of capital markets or your position

is you're free to do what you want I

think it's stupid of you there's a

phrase a fool and his money are soon

parted if you're stupid enough to sell a

billion dollars based on a troll account

cuz you saw a meme and there was no

missile strike or maybe there was but it

didn't matter you're just going to lose

the money you won't have the money and

so the market gets smarter and what I

would say about all this volatility and

all this trading is the very intelligent

capitalists that make the right trades

are getting richer and more powerful and

more

influential and the really stupid

capitalists that make the wrong trades

are getting poorer and they're getting

less

powerful right and and they're becoming

irrelevant and the marketplace is much

more complicated than you or I or any

regulator or anybody on the face of the

earth and the real Beauty the insane

beauty of the Bitcoin network is it is

the world's greatest free

market maybe the greatest free market of

anything I mean I wonder is there any

product in the world that is traded

globally

247365 in multi-billion doll components

where everything is connected to

everything all the

time I mean I don't you can't short

Manhattan real estate you can't short

gold you can't you can't trade iPhones

like you you can't Panic sell a billion

iPhones on Saturday night because you

think Apple's going under and you can't

you know roaring Kitty buy 10 million

iPhones on Sunday morning and so I don't

know that there's another free market to

buy and sell things with or without

leverage at any point anywhere that's

greater than

Bitcoin so I you know I just think uh

Wall Street is is just one of the actors

but if they do stupid stuff if if they

like manipulate see the thing is you can

manipulate the price of a stock at 400

p.m. in the evening knowing that no

one's going to touch it until 9:30 the

next day you can't really do that with

Bitcoin because if you manipulate the

price of the stock at 400 p.m. it's

going to trade another 6 hours so if you

manipulated it down you would be the

loser because people would be buying it

cheap you know in Japan and China and

Europe while you're asleep and then

you're going to wake up and you're going

to find that you're naked short and

you've lost your shirt so I so I think

this is a game for

adults and uh you know maybe they short

it and they buy back and maybe you don't

like the fact that they shorted a

billion in the morning and bought back a

billion in the afternoon but a free

market person would say hey they created

liquidity and because they created

liquidity it trades 10x as much as it

would otherwise trade and because it

trades 10x as much that means that you

can actually extract a billion dollars

in five minutes instead of a billion

dollars in five

months right it's like you ever see a

gyroscope I'm spending the gyroscope

really fast and you're like well wait a

minute it's not going anywhere what's

the point of spinning a gyro really fast

if it doesn't

move with that because the answer is

stability right it creates enormous

stability it's we use it in inertial

navigation systems and so all of this

stuff going on in the market which could

be characterized by a hater or a skeptic

as

manipulation it's capitalist trading

with an agenda that's different than

yours or M mine based on their local

knowledge and they're creating

liquidity they're compressing the spread

they're creating credit they're creating

stability they're they're actually

diminishing the volatility because

they're going to short it at the top

they're going to they're going to cover

their short at the bottom they're

creating they're creating a stable

framework and you know and and the

inertial navigation systems matter the

Gyros matter right all of these things

uh have a an a a physical value right in

the

economy and I I

think anybody in business or anybody

that studied life much they realize that

in a city or in an economy where lots of

actors are able to go about their

business doing things that you don't

understand that you wouldn't

do normally that maximizes productivity

and and um uh quality life right and and

if we only agree to do the things that

you think make sense well every idea

that you never thought of is never

coming to you and the truth of the

matter is you'd probably be dead because

there's probably 99,000 things that get

done in the society that you can't do

that you wouldn't even think to start

doing that are going to save your life

one day and so I just think let the free

markets Market that's that's what

they're meant to do that's what makes

the entire

world work that's lifts what lifts

Humanity out of the

gutter Michael you were once very vocal

that ethereum in your opinion would be

declared an unregistered security then

it became an ETF what did you get wrong

or what information

changed I think the political landscape

and consensus really shifted in the

second quarter when uh Trump embraced

crypto

uh the crypto Community I think was at

the end of their rope where it was

pretty clear the the current

Administration was going to continue to

wage a war on crypto via enforcement

actions and they had nothing to lose by

abandoning you know the Democratic party

and they made that decision and then I

think there was a you know atmosphere of

lawfare that

caused you know Trump to decide he would

be benefited to Ally with the crypto

community and so that Alliance formed

and got progressively stronger and I

think that changed the political

landscape not just in the US but it

changed it in the world actually it

changed the course of human history I

think it changed the outcome of the

election right I think the crypto

Community Support actually was was a

material um force that tipped the

election you know uh in favor of the red

swe sweep and I think we got a red sweep

in part because of the support of the

digital assets community so I think um I

think that there were really two

possible Futures two

timelines uh in uh March or or February

of the year and and one timeline the

blue timeline is is uh Bitcoin Motors up

as the one uh the one crypto asset

that's embraced as a commodity

by the by the uh Global community and

then everything else sits you know in a

gray zone right you know and um in a

world of

uncertainty and I think the second

timeline the red timeline is is the war

on crypto

ends uh we get a supportive uh

Administration House and Senate we get a

digital assets

framework we get um we get a framework

there's three things we need in a

framework we need a

taxonomy we need

legitimacy and we need uh

proportionality and uh a taxonomy means

uh give me uh a physical ethical

definition of a digital commodity a

digital security a digital token a

digital currency an nft and an a digital

asset pack token and

ABT we need those things defined

and the second thing we need legitimacy

we need the rights and responsibilities

of an

issuer an

exchange and a holder an owner right if

you're a digital exchange you know what

can you trade what are your

responsibilities right obviously

something grounded in the do not lie

cheat and steel area but it goes beyond

it like do you have a right to self-

custody of your digital Securities can

you can you custody Apple stock on your

iPhone can you custody your Apple stock

on your Android phone if it's tokenized

right can you take your Apple stock out

of the country how do I issue a digital

commodity how do I how do I issue a

token what's the difference between a

security and a token maybe a token is

utility in cyberspace and a security

gives you a right to cash flows in

physical space or it gives you a right

to physical property right um to find a

digital currency a a token pegged one

for one to a fiat currency back by Cy

equivalence okay great right so you can

see the taxonomy you can see the the

legitimacy and then you get to Pro you

get to this issue of

proportionality you know it costs right

now $10 million a year in compliance

fees to actually issue of public

security if you want to raise a million

dollars once how do you afford to pay 10

million a year for the insurance policy

how do I raise $100,000 when it cost me

$40 million to go public right so logic

says it shouldn't cost more than 10

basis points a year to issue um a a

security or a token or something if I

have a million doll thing then certainly

when it cost me 1% of the thing when it

cost me $110,000 a year that's getting

expensive to issue it but at maybe

$1,000 I could maybe handle a million

doll thing

so I think that those ideas the assets

framework the idea of proportionality

legitimacy taxonomy that was not going

anywhere in a split Congress and a blue

red Congress and that caused me to be

fairly pessimistic the beginning of the

year I would have thought bitcoin's

going to grind up 20 to 40% a year and

then everything else is just fighting a

headwind and we don't know but it's just

going to be a continual simmering you

know

struggle uh brutal painful struggle but

then I think uh things shifted in the

second quarter and then in the third

quarter and then you know things shifted

more and then November 5th everything

flipped to the the triple red timeline

and now I think the out the Outlook

that's most reasonable is Bitcoin surges

up I mean we saw it went from 68,000

through 100,000 bitcoin's not growing 20

to 40% a year it's growing like plus 20

40 to 60% or or moreit Bitcoin surges

and then all the other digital assets

they have a new le on life at least

there's an expectation of reg a

regulatory framework

coming I can't tell you

exactly you know what happens next

because I haven't seen the framework

right and that has to be determined uh

in uh dialogue between the White House

and and the uh cabinet and the house and

the Senate and the industry but I'm

optimistic right and and now I would say

I would say um my forecast for Bitcoin

isn't that different it's going to grow

29% AR over 21 years to be a $280

trillion do asset class and 13 million a

coin that's not that different maybe a

little bit faster up front maybe I'm a

little bit maybe I'm leaning more toward

the base case to the bull case than I

was leaning from the base case toward

the bare case so yeah I'm a bit more

optimistic but I think the big major C

change is is you can see $500 trillion

of conventional assets getting tokenized

to become digital assets I think the qu

the issue is why wouldn't half of the

equity in the world become digital

Equity like why wouldn't you expect to

see Apple stock Google Amazon stock

trading on your iPhone and your Android

phone is tokenized

security and I would think

that the the path is open for stable

coin that that to go from $150 billion

to a trillion dollar to 10 trillion

dollar I mean I at this point you define

a digital currency you Peg it to the

dollar to dollar equivalence yeah there

ought to be a regulatory environment

where a company or a

bank especially in the US can issue a US

dollar backed stable coin I think

there's 10 trillion dollars of demand

for that I think that we're going to go

from a 100 billion to a 10 trillion doll

industry in stable coins we're just

waiting for the you know the framework

for the digital currency um and as you

know I don't think the Bitcoin is

digital currency I think Bitcoin is

digital Capital currency is the

short-term medium exchange pegged to the

fiat

currency capital is the long-term store

of value competing with real estate and

gold and high quality equity and your

art you know that you're going to give

to your grandchildren I think those two

are clear

um I think that um I I think the

exciting thing right is uh defining a

digital token right how about a token in

cyberspace that has utility in

cyberspace it's not a security it

doesn't have a claim on real property or

on cash flows but rather it's Tom Brady