SaylorCorpus

Guy Adami interviews Michael Saylor, CEO of MicroStrategy

RiskReversal Media · 2022-01-26 · 48m · View on YouTube →

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Ladies and gentlemen, please welcome our moderator, TV personality and host CNBC Fast Money,

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Guy Adammi.

1:09

Hey everyone, hopefully everybody's enjoying the conference.

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I was hoping we get more people, but I guess people in meetings I totally get it, but I want

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to thank everybody that's here for making the effort to get down to Florida.

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A couple of years ago they asked me to co-host Power Lunch and one of the guests was going

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to be Michael Seller, which I found fascinating.

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So I obviously did my homework.

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I did the interview with Morgan Brennan, and I'd say five or ten minutes after the interview

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ended, Mr. Seller reached out to me and said, I thought it was well done and really appreciated

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it.

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And we started a bit of a friendship.

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So when I reached out to Michael a few months ago and asked him to come down here, he immediately

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said, yes, I don't think he needs an introduction.

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I'm sure you all know who he is.

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And without further ado, ladies and gentlemen, the CEO of MicroStrategy is Michael Seller.

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Well, Michael, you heard my introduction.

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I mean, we did that interview on CNBC and it was fascinating.

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And that was a couple of years ago, but you had your sort of come for lack of a better

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experience.

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Jesus moment in terms of crypto, probably March, April, I guess of 2020.

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Can you sort of speak to that and what forced you into that?

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What was the catalyst to get you there?

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You know, we're running a conservatively managed company with large cash flows.

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And we accumulated more than half a billion dollars of cash over the previous few years.

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And the cash used to generate with conventional treasury strategies about 550 basis points.

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I remember when you could basically get more than 500 basis points for overnight money,

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no credit risk.

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And I say you're holding $500 million and you're thinking maybe I get $25 million a year.

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The rest of the business was generating $30, $40 million a year in cash flow.

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It felt like a balanced asset.

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And I come to Jesus moment was March, April, the second quarter of 2020, interest rates

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have been sliding for a decade, you know, hope springs eternal.

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And I pretty much lost hope.

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They got pegged to zero.

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You know, Jerome Powell said we're not even thinking about raising interest rates to the

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year 2024.

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I said my $500 million looks like dead money.

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It's going to generate zero.

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Meanwhile, COVID hit.

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We all went virtual.

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The company started generating much more cash.

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75, we thought $75, $80, $90 million a year in cash flow on the operating side.

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But then we saw on the balance sheet side, the cash was going to generate zero.

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And then we watched as there's a K shape recovery and assets all appreciated in price 25%.

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And I started thinking over the next four to eight years, the monetary expansion rate

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is going to be double what it had been in the past 10 years.

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It's going to be going from 10% to 20%.

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This treasury balance is going to lose 20% of its purchasing power a year.

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The nominal yield is going to be zero.

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The real yield is going to be minus 15 minus 20%.

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My investors valued the company at one time's revenue plus the cash.

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Their view was cash is trash, give it all back to us.

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And so we got to this point where we realized we either needed to give all the cash back

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to the shareholders and decap the lies the company.

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Or we needed to invest it in something which was going to go up in value more than the

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rate of the money expansion.

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And that set us on this search for what eventually became Bitcoin.

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Well, it's interesting you talk about balance sheet corporate balance sheets and how most

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companies look at it wrong.

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If you have cash on your balance sheet that's actually a liability.

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Can you speak to that because more and more I think people are coming to that realization.

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But it took a long time for people to get there.

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I think there's two types of inflation you can focus on.

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One is consumer inflation as measured by CPI.

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And the other is asset inflation as measured by, and I think the best surrogate I can find

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is the S&P index.

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So asset inflation is the cost to capital.

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It's the cost to stay wealthy.

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If you want to be rich or stay rich or maintain shareholder value, you got to hit that hurdle

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rate.

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That's traditionally been 10% a year up until 2020.

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And then it doubled.

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You know, almost went to 25%.

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So the monetary inflation rate is the cost to capital is the S&P index.

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If you're a private individual and you own everything you need, your car, your house,

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and you're looking toward retirement, you could think, well, I just need to keep up with

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the CPI.

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I don't need to buy anything.

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I don't need to buy stocks.

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I don't need to buy a house in the Hamptons.

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So if I can keep up with CPI, I'm good.

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But if you're a young individual, you're in your 20s, you want to buy a house, you want

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to send your kids to expensive school, you want luxury assets, you want to stock portfolio,

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you want so security from the private sector.

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If the price of an S&P stock is going up at 10% a year and your salary is going up at

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3% a year, you got a negative real yield of minus 7.

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So what I realize is I'm a public company CEO.

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If I want a whole shareholder value and I'm holding 500 million in cash, I need to beat

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the S&P index.

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How do you do that?

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You could buy the S&P, but the problem is not very popular with your shareholders.

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And there's a technicality, which is the S&P index is a security.

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And you can't hold more than 40% of your assets as securities if you're an SEC operating

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company.

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So I can't really buy a package of securities.

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I got to either lever up the company, give all the capital back to the shareholders, buy

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my own stock back, or I have to buy property, not a security that will actually hold its

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value that scares and desirable.

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And so, you know, the general idea, the theme is you're sitting on conventional treasury

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strategy, which yields 1% interest.

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And the monetary inflation rate, the cost of capital is 20%.

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Your minus 19% real yield.

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Your burning 19% of your treasury a year.

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It used to be sovereign debt yielded 5%, 4%, 6%, and you expected 7, 8%, 9% inflation.

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You're a minus real yield, minus 3.

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You can do that for 30 years.

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And if it's going to take 30 years to burn your treasury, you can justify having a conventional

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strategy because you're better off to have the insurance policy for 30 years just in

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case to protect the operating business.

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But when the cost of capital goes to 25%, and the nominal yield is zero, and your negative

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real yield is minus 25%, now you're burning through your treasury in 3 to 4 years.

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And that's not the worst case.

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The worst case is I'm sitting in Argentina, or Turkey, or Lebanon, or Venezuela.

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And the inflation rate goes to 100%, or 200%, or 1000%, and you're going to burn through

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all your cash in 12 months.

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And so you can see that risk-free rate varies depending on the macroeconomic circumstances.

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And if you're going to run a business responsibly to preserve shareholder value, you've got to

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have an opinion about what is the real yield on your treasury strategy, and how important

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is it to have capital?

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And if I'd given all the capital back and just divvited it all back to the shareholders,

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then we're a low-growth company generating cash that's losing 15% of its purchasing

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power a year, competing against Microsoft.

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And at that point, while your shareholders start to wonder whether you'll be around,

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so the stock trades down, and then the employees start to wonder, and then the customers start

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to wonder, you get yourself in a death spiral, and you can spend into oblivion.

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So I didn't want to decapitalize the company financially if I'm fighting a war for human

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capital and customer retention.

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So that's why I concluded, in essence, the traditional treasury strategy is bankrupt

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in a highly inflationary environment, and you've got to do something different on your

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balance sheet.

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So you came to that realization, it obviously took you a period of time to get up the

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curve, and you mentioned property, I'm going to come back to that.

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But it's not just you don't work in a vacuum.

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You want to get your board of directors to sign off on this as well.

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Sign off on putting Bitcoin on your back sheet.

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Now, if memory serves, you send them all home over the weekend with a homework assignment,

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and they all came back to you with the thumbs up.

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Can you speak to that?

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Because I think that's really fascinating.

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The theoretical thing you want to do is you want to replace your balance sheet, which

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has got crumbling credit.

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I've got credit generating 1% yield with a cost-accapital of 20%.

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I'm crumbling.

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I want to replace my balance sheet with some property, a non-currency derivative.

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So either by a building, or by land, or by a portfolio of art, or by gold, or by some

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crypto gold.

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After sifting through every possible property, I settled upon the idea of crypto gold, and

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then I sifted through 6,500 cryptos, and I figured Bitcoin is the closest thing to digital

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gold on the dominant network.

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It's the least risky of the crypto assets, and it's the one that is acknowledged as a

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property.

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So now, if I've come to that conclusion, I've got my general counsel, my CFO, I've got

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my outside auditors, I've got my outside counsel, law firm, and I've got my boarded directors.

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So this becomes an education exercise.

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I gave them about five hours worth of videos, what is Bitcoin?

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How do you think about the macroeconomic?

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So I said, watch all these, then I gave them a bunch of materials, started pointing them

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toward articles on Bitcoin, the bullish case for Bitcoin, the Bitcoin standard.

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I said, you know, guys, I want you to watch all these videos, peruse these things, and

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then I m going to talk to you.

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So first I give them the homework.

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You know, you can be amazed what you can learn on YouTube, guy.

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You can learn anything on YouTube.

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Right?

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You got to pick the right.

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The right YouTube, not the wrong YouTube, but if you pick the right things, I gave them

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that.

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Then I talked to them after that and answered all the questions.

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Then we all got together as a group, as we talked with each other.

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Then we broke up into working groups, the general counsel, letter review on the regulatory

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statutory issues.

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You know, we study every single publicly traded company that's got me crypto on the balance

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sheet.

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What have they done?

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We study all the guidelines.

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The CFO leads the financial review with the accountants and the finance department.

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You know, I lead some strategy discussions.

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We have a discussion on shareholder relations.

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How are we going to actually bring our shareholders along?

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And you know, we work through the accounting.

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We work through the statutory disclosure issues.

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And we subtle upon a very conservative strategy.

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We basically said, we're going to buy back $250 million worth of our stock.

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And we're going to invest $250 million in an asset as an inflation hedge.

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We put that out on the wire.

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And you know, we announced that to all of our shareholders.

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We waited for five days, crickets.

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The stock did in trade.

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Everybody kind of liked just it in a home and ignored it completely.

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Five days later, we accelerated the process because we can't just wait forever.

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I mean, clock is ticking.

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So we announced that we had rifle through.

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We studied every alternative.

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We made a decision.

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The decision was to invest $250 million in Bitcoin.

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We did it around 11,000 some change of coin between 11, 11, 1500 to coin.

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So early on by today's standards.

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And then we said, we're going to announce a Dutch auction.

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We're going to buy back $250 million worth of our shares at a premium.

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I think the stock was trading 120 and we announced we tend to up to 140.

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And we give everybody 20 days to think about it.

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Because you got 20 days to decide, do you want to be on on micro strategies Bitcoin journey?

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Do you want to get off?

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If you want to get off, we buy you out at a profit.

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If you want to stay on, you stay with us.

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When you see these press releases at 9 a.m., and you got to make a decision by 9.30 a.m.,

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right?

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That's kind of anxiety inducing.

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So we thought the kindest, generalist thing we can do is give everybody 20 trading days.

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Stock traded up.

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First it traded into 130s and it traded above.

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People thought, well, this is a put option.

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Traded above 140.

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People had their 20 days to get in or get out.

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The shareholder base rotated.

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At the end of the period, we had about $60 million is tendered.

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We had an extra $175 million in cash.

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We bought Bitcoin with it.

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All of a sudden we had a $425 million position at about, you know, we bought that Bitcoin $10,500.

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So a low basis.

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And then we waited.

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You know, and the our stock traded up, Bitcoin traded up, the market started to register.

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Oh, here's the publicly traded company that could use this as a strategy.

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You know, the rest is kind of history.

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Well, it's interesting.

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You said a lot of interesting things, but anxiety inducing.

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And I remember one of the first times we spoke, you talked about our society is based

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on, is predicated on doing exactly that.

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And think about the last two days, for example, in terms of the market.

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I'm sure there are people looking at their phones, seeing what the market's doing.

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It's all anxiety inducing it.

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You gave people 20 days.

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How are you able to get yourself away from that and have the clarity that's required to

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have a vision of not five minutes, but five years, 50 years?

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Well, you know, I became a big believer in big tech and the mobile wave around 2010.

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And I made large investments in Apple, Amazon, Facebook and Google between 2010 and 2012.

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And during that time period, there were a lot of haters of Amazon.

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They hated it.

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A lot of people would tell you, if Apple stock doubles, you should sell half of it and diversify

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into the other computer companies.

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When Amazon goes up, you should sell half of it and diversify in the other retail companies.

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You know, what are these things?

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I don't get it.

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And you know, my view then was it doesn't make sense to sell the big tech dominant monopoly

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because it's going to eat everything.

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One company, Amazon One, Walmart kept up every other retail or 15,000 retailers lost.

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With Apple, one company won the mobile wave.

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They got 150% of the profit mobile phones.

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Every other company lost money to compete with them.

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And so my experience as a private investor is you got to figure out what's the dominant

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technology that's going to win in the eyes of a billion people.

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They have an overwhelming lever.

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Once you figure that out, if you're if 98% of the people disagree with you, it's probably

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a good investment.

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Like I could have lined up everybody on Wall Street in 2010.

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You can go back and you probably had a parade of people talking heads on television, telling

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you why Amazon did it make money.

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They're never going to make money, blah, blah, blah.

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And here we are today.

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So that was my experience, a happy experience.

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I knew find the dominant technology and put the chip down and wait a decade.

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I had my father's experience.

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My father worked for his entire life and retired as a chief mass of charge in the Air Force.

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And then his retirement savings, he can't invest in a savings account.

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They yield zero.

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So he goes and he buys some stocks and he bought like British petroleum stock.

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And so my dad's owning British petroleum, they have an oil well blow up.

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And then the president of the United States decides to enter into the fray.

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The stock gets destroyed.

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And it's like, why does a non-commissioned officer have to become a stock analyst and bet

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their life savings on guessing which stock will get destroyed or not get destroyed based

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on an act of God so he can live happily ever after in his retirement?

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And it struck me as, that's not right.

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The political system destroyed the savings account.

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You know, you used to be, you could buy a bond yielding 6% interest and the risk was the

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United States government would default on it.

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And we got to the point where, you know, a guy driving a taxi cab has to guess whether

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or not Facebook will beat Apple.

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You know, you're taking risk.

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And so my view was there's something wrong.

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People shouldn't have to be hedge funds and they shouldn't have to guess whether a stock

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will beat their quarterly earnings in order to not lose all their money.

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There's something busted there.

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And the appeal of Bitcoin is, it's just a savings account in cyber space run by software.

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It's like Bitcoin is like a savings account run by software and it's incorruptible.

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The software doesn't get to change the rules.

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You're not guessing whether they'll hit their quarterly earnings.

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You're just putting your money in that bank in cyber space and you're waiting for a decade.

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Even over the course of a decade after you've smoothed on all the volatility, it's outperforming

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the S&P.

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There's no CEO to give himself stock options.

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There's no board to issue credit or debt and dilute you.

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You're not going to, you don't have to worry about your stock triples and the company sells

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more stock.

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All you're doing is you're converting what is a weaker form of property into a stronger

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form of property and waiting for a long period of time.

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I should talk ahead.

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I mean, unfortunately, I find myself one of those talking heads.

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With that said, we say things on the network, a lot of the networks, when we talk about

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Bitcoin, we call it cryptocurrency.

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Bitcoin is a currency and I'm sure that makes you wince in pain because you have a much

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different view.

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You view this as property and that's not nuance.

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That's an actual distinction.

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Yeah, I think that if you're going to be in the entire crypto economy, you have to understand

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the legal and the technical definition of property versus security versus currency.

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A currency is a legal tender and you can legally transfer it a thousand times a year without

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incurring a tax obligation.

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I can take a million dollars on six months ago, hold it for six months, give it to you,

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and there's no accounting event, there's no tax event.

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I take a million dollars of property if it trades, and I give you a million dollars

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of that property, but the basis has changed and of course it's going to change.

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There's a capital gain or a capital loss that has to be accounted for.

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If something's property, you're not going to want to trade it.

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You're going to want to hold property for a decade.

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Maybe the ideal holding period for property is forever.

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You're a wealthy family in New York.

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Your grandfather bought a city block in New York in 1930.

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You're holding it in your 2022.

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You're going to give it to your grandkids and property is meant to be levered up.

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I'm going to mortgage it.

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I'm going to live off of the borrowings or I'm going to develop it or I'm going to sell

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the air rights over it.

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I'm going to lean it.

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Or I'm going to rent it, but I'm going to hold it.

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That's the way a rational business person handles property.

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Currency is something that I'm going to move with high velocity.

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It's a working capital.

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Cryptocurrency is a stablecoin.

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Every stablecoin is an essence of crypto dollar.

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The world wants to move crypto dollars around because they can move them at high velocity

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and they solve a problem.

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I can settle every three hours and I can trade 24, 7, 365.

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There's a place for high velocity, currency.

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But property solves a different problem.

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I'm sitting in Argentina and I want to trade my weak property.

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Weak property is a business that sells stuff in pesos.

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I want to convert it and it's limited to Argentina.

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I sell my building.

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I convert it to Bitcoin.

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My Bitcoin is valuable and desirable to anybody with money in London, Paris, Beijing, or Moscow.

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My building in Argentina is valuable only to someone in Argentina.

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I can rent the building for pesos.

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I can rent the Bitcoin for euros or dollars.

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Weak property goes to strong property.

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Weak currency, the peso losing 80% of its value in a year goes to the dollar losing 15%

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of its value in a year.

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When you think that way, you realize there's a massive demand for strong property everywhere

24:02

in the world.

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But there's even a bigger demand for strong currency.

24:07

The cryptocurrency is the stablecoin.

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It's the tether.

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It's the circle.

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It's whatever the United States endorses if a bank like Silvergate issues a stablecoin,

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that's going to be cryptocurrency.

24:22

What's interesting you mentioned, you know, currencies that are attractive.

24:25

We live on a planet where it's seemingly every central bank is trying to devalue their

24:30

currency against the next guys in Gauss to make their goods more attractive.

24:34

You mentioned Jerome Powell who just seemingly a few years ago, we're not thinking about

24:39

raising rates to post Thanksgiving to a complete 180 in terms of everything we're talking

24:46

about now.

24:47

Some of the volatility we're seeing is no doubt in the back of that.

24:49

So what is your current macroeconomic outlook?

24:52

What's going on to you?

24:55

First of all, I'd say you can't be an investor without understanding and having a macroeconomic

25:02

outlook and a microeconomic outlook.

25:05

If you're going to own stocks and you own international stocks that actually sell their products

25:11

in South America, you have a partial currency derivative and you have to have an opinion

25:17

on the real, the bowl of R and the peso in order to own the stock.

25:21

If you're going to own an asset, you've got to understand, is it a currency derivative,

25:27

pure and simple, like a bond, an Argentine bond, a U.S. bond?

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Is it a 100% currency derivative or is it a partial currency derivative, like a value

25:38

stock or is it a property like owning a Leonardo da Vinci painting that's valued just for the

25:46

essence of its ownership?

25:49

So my macroeconomic view is there's 130 currencies that are floating right now in one shape

25:54

or form.

25:56

The strongest currency is the dollar.

25:58

It's losing purchasing power at maybe double.

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The rate it was losing purchasing power before 2020.

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So if it was losing 7% to 10% of its purchasing power a year, it's now losing 15% to 20%

26:13

of its purchasing power a year.

26:15

We're going to stay in an environment for the next four to eight years where we're going

26:19

to run higher deficits.

26:20

We're going to have a lower interest rates, looser monetary policy than we had before 2020.

26:28

It's just a question of are you a 15% or 20% or 12% or I don't think anybody reasonably

26:35

can expect that we're going to go back to a tighter money policy than we had in 2019

26:40

or 2018.

26:43

So my forecast there is all the strong currencies of the world, which are the dollar, the

26:50

euro, and then all the currencies pegged to the dollar, the DRAM, etc.

26:57

All of those currencies lose 15% of their purchasing power a year for quite a while.

27:03

The second tier currencies are losing double that.

27:07

They're losing 30% of their purchasing power a year and they're just weakening against

27:12

the dollar and you can see it.

27:14

And then the third tier currencies are losing anywhere 50% to 100%.

27:20

Well, they're running 50 to 100% inflation.

27:23

You can see that in like an Argentina right now.

27:28

The indisha of the weakest currencies is either nominal inflation is diverging from the

27:37

black market inflation.

27:40

The official exchange rate of the peso is like a hundred peso to the dollar.

27:46

But the blue market rate hit 210 pesos to the dollar the other day.

27:51

And 36 months ago, 15 pesos to the dollar.

27:56

And 15 years ago, it was two pesos to the dollar.

27:58

And I remember when it was one peso to the dollar.

28:02

So the weakest currencies are going to have capital controls.

28:07

We see the Chinese currency, the C and Ys pegged to the dollar, but the only way they pegged

28:10

to the dollar is the capital controls.

28:13

And Argentina has somewhat capital controls.

28:16

That's why you got to pay 200 pesos to get a dollar.

28:20

And officially the government only pays you 100 pesos.

28:25

I'm not looking to play like where's Bitcoin going price wise.

28:28

But I want to mention something because it's, I think it's interesting.

28:31

It's, I don't think it's coincidental that the recent decline in Bitcoin has come on the

28:36

heels of a Fed that's seemingly trying to get themselves back from being, in my words,

28:42

reckless to having some semblance of order.

28:45

With that said to what you're saying, if they were to have to backtrack for whatever

28:49

reason, market collapse, or they just can't continue raising rates and reducing their balance

28:54

sheet, how bullish would that acknowledgement that they have effectively failed be for Bitcoin?

29:01

Well, you know, I'm not a trader.

29:05

And so my short time horizon is four years.

29:09

During five years, well, I'll take that kind of risk.

29:13

And my normal time horizon is a decade for a forecast.

29:18

And the ideal time horizon is forever.

29:21

It's property.

29:22

Do I want to own Manhattan?

29:23

Do I want to own London?

29:25

Do I want to own gold?

29:26

Or do I want to own Bitcoin for the next three years?

29:31

Having said all that, right, the way Bitcoin trades oftentimes is it trades like with the

29:35

derivative, the acceleration or the jerk or something of the money supply.

29:41

So the fast money traders control it in the near term.

29:45

And they will tend to kind of do the opposite of the long term, which I find interesting.

29:53

When the Fed said there was no inflation, right, people come on television and say, there's

29:59

no inflation.

30:01

Maybe you don't need Bitcoin because Bitcoin's inflation hedge.

30:06

And then the fast money trades against it for a bit.

30:10

And then another week or two weeks go by.

30:13

And then once you get outside the fast money, the momentum, the more fundamental players

30:18

come in and they start buying it up and it accelerates.

30:22

And I think when the Fed says, well, I guess there is inflation, we've got big inflation,

30:28

but we recognize it's a problem.

30:29

The fast money says, oh, well, they recognize it's a problem.

30:32

So it trades against Bitcoin.

30:34

Like, well, the Fed's going to treat the problem.

30:37

And you're in that dynamic.

30:39

And then I think eventually over time, the longer term investors come in and they start

30:46

to drive it the other direction.

30:48

So you've got to decide whether you're fast money.

30:51

If you're fast money, you're trading on the volatility.

30:53

And those guys, I guess they know what they're doing.

30:56

They can figure it out.

30:57

But I can't figure it out from hour to hour day to day.

31:02

My view is if everybody in the world today universally agrees we have an inflation problem,

31:10

the question you're going to ask yourself is if the Fed raises short term rates to 1% or 2%,

31:15

and they've agreed there's a 7% CPI, and if you can establish a 15% to 20% monetary inflation rate,

31:25

what's the likelihood that inflation's going away?

31:28

Not great, to be honest with you.

31:29

And I'm on a show called Fast Money and I can't figure it out.

31:32

So current regulatory outlook for crypto Bitcoin, all those things, the industry,

31:38

and the risks associated with that and political considerations, because now that's coming into play.

31:46

Yeah, if you look at the entire crypto ecosystem, you've got digital property, digital currency,

31:55

and digital securities, and digital platforms.

32:00

And they all have a different regulatory overhang and regulatory risk.

32:05

But the least risky of these things is digital property.

32:10

Bitcoin's the dominant digital property.

32:13

It's a common property.

32:15

It's not a security.

32:16

It's acknowledged as not a security.

32:19

That makes it ethical for a public official to endorse it without a conflict of interest.

32:26

If you're the mayor of Miami or you're the governor of New York or you're a senator of congressmen

32:31

or the head of a country and you stood up and said, I think everybody should have a chicken in every pot,

32:39

a farm, a house, some land, and some Bitcoin.

32:43

You just said the same thing.

32:45

You said, I'm endorsing food as property, land as property, houses property,

32:51

a synthetic digital asset as property, live happily ever after.

32:55

You know, it's a better store of value than the US dollar, than the peso, than the ball of art.

33:01

So I think Bitcoin has got some clarity there.

33:03

If in the use cases property, buy it as property, if you sell it or transfer it, you know,

33:10

capital gains tax, a loss, a gain, or whatever, that's been decided.

33:16

Are there other digital properties?

33:18

Well, I mean, the Bitcoin forks are 1% of Bitcoin.

33:22

They failed.

33:23

There's a lot of question about, is there any other digital property?

33:27

I can't, I would not endorse any other digital property other than Bitcoin,

33:31

because everything else is murky.

33:33

Now you got a digital currency.

33:35

Well, you've got, you've got a lot of digital stable coins.

33:38

There's 17 or 18 stable coins.

33:40

The digital currency that's won is the dollar.

33:43

If the world had its way, we would have $1 to $10 trillion worth of digital dollars circulating.

33:49

Why aren't they?

33:51

Well, they, you know, they need to be endorsed by the banking regulators.

33:55

If, if JP Morgan issues a digital dollar, they could issue a trillion dollars worth of

34:01

Like that, because the use case for the digital dollar right now is offshore settlement

34:09

of crypto trades and people that don't trust their own government and their own banks.

34:15

If you're in Turkey or Lebanon or Argentina, a short story.

34:20

I have a million dollars in Argentina tying bank.

34:23

I'm worried about the peso.

34:24

They're pegged one to the, one peso to the dollar.

34:28

On one night, the government sends a fax machine, a fax memo and they convert everybody's

34:33

dollars to pesos.

34:34

The next day they devalue the peso, 10 to 1.

34:37

The next day they hand me back one tenth of the money I had and that's under a capital

34:42

of control.

34:43

That's what happens in a, in a government, in a environment where you don't trust the

34:47

bank.

34:48

So people that are concerned about that, they want to own digital currency.

34:52

They want to swap their lira or their Lebanese pounds or their Argentine pesos or their boulevards

34:59

to tether or to a circle or whatever stable coin.

35:03

But you're not going to see Amazon and IBM and Microsoft do tens of billions of dollars

35:09

of cross-border remittances with a stable coin unless it's issued by an FDIC insured institution.

35:17

So corporate treasury usage and retail remittances require a government endorsement.

35:25

And so I think with digital currency, we're waiting for that government endorse digital currency.

35:32

When El Salvador endorsed the stuff, you saw three million people download a wallet within

35:39

four weeks.

35:41

That's half the country.

35:43

So I think that there's a demand for that, but there's a question of who can issue a stable

35:48

coin.

35:49

Do you need a money transfer license, a state banking license, a federal banking license,

35:55

a federal banking license in every country?

35:58

What's the KYC, etc?

36:01

With regard to digital securities, most of the other cryptos are securities.

36:06

And I think that's been made clear by a lot of regulators.

36:10

If there's a small group of people and they've issued a token, it looks like an investment

36:14

contract, you're relying upon the work of others to make profit, if it generates a yield,

36:20

looks like a security.

36:21

We're waiting for more clarity on how do I issue a digital token that's a security and

36:28

then what are the liabilities associated with that?

36:33

I think that that's the biggest regulatory overhang.

36:37

And the last piece is digital platforms.

36:40

What's the innovation of crypto?

36:42

There's four big innovations.

36:45

One innovation is digital property and cyberspace.

36:48

You could put $100 trillion on the Bitcoin network.

36:50

Big innovation.

36:51

I can take $10 million, move it from Rio de Janeiro to Moscow to Beijing to London.

36:59

And I could never do that with pure property in the history of the human race.

37:03

That's an innovation.

37:04

The second innovation is cryptocurrency.

37:08

The world wants $10 trillion worth of US dollars.

37:11

If they get it, 100 currencies will collapse and will have a dozen strong currencies that

37:17

will exist.

37:18

And nobody in Asia or nobody in Africa is going to use any currency other than the dollar

37:25

unless they're forced.

37:27

So that's the second innovation and we're working to get through that adoption phase.

37:32

The third innovation is I can issue a token or a security really fast, maybe, and trade

37:40

it with high velocity.

37:42

We're waiting to get guidance on, well, how do I issue a compliant token?

37:48

How do I do that?

37:50

And then is there a faster way than taking a company public?

37:54

The taking a company a public way, I know very well.

37:56

It takes six months to a year.

37:59

It's a $10 million expense and takes a year.

38:05

And it becomes a 50 person finance account.

38:10

It's a $10 million overhead every year forever.

38:14

That's the heavy way, the 20th century way.

38:17

Is there a 21st century way?

38:19

Well, we're waiting.

38:20

The fourth innovation is digital platform trading this stuff 24, 7, 365, and cross collateral

38:28

izing it.

38:30

Does the world want that?

38:31

Yeah, I mean, they want to trade on, they want to trade all sorts of derivatives and they

38:36

want to do sports betting, they want to trade digital commodities, they want to trade

38:39

digital tokens.

38:41

Is there a, you know, and what's the example of success?

38:44

Well, the big offshore crypto exchanges, you know, big example of success, all the crypto

38:49

tokens.

38:51

But what's the regulator view?

38:53

They want to be national securities exchanges.

38:56

The SEC wants these things to be national securities exchanges and adopt the principles

39:01

and the protocols of a national security exchange, which means you can't have 20 to 1 leverage,

39:07

it means you got to have surveillance agreements, means you got to be transparent.

39:11

And so clearly, over the next 36 months, it's a 36 month, 40 month, I don't think it gets

39:20

sorted out in 12 months.

39:22

But it's over the next three to five years.

39:25

This industry needs to go from entrepreneurial, fast and loose to institutional, regulated,

39:35

orderly, transparent, like, you know, private companies to public companies, unregulated to

39:42

regulated, retail offshore to institutional onshore.

39:51

And you know, when you're looking at it as an investor, if you're a public investor,

39:57

a public company, a public official, you're safe harbor, you're safe place is Bitcoin as

40:04

property.

40:05

Not Bitcoin is a medium of exchange, but Bitcoin is a store of value.

40:09

I'm going to buy it, hold it for a decade.

40:12

That's a clear place.

40:14

If you're a tech VC, a crypto venture capitalist, I mean, who's going to do that?

40:21

Who's going to dominate stable coins?

40:22

Who's going to dominate digital platforms?

40:24

Who's going to dominate, you know, what's the cool, you know, DeFi, swap exchange?

40:29

You can play that, but you have to understand the competition, the regulation, the security

40:35

issues, and it's a lot more complicated.

40:38

And if you're a speculator, you're a speculator, dogecoin versus shipcoin.

40:44

That's speculation.

40:45

Not so bad.

40:46

6040 model that was dominated the 20th century, I mean, what's the modern asset allocation

40:53

model in your opinion in 2022?

40:57

I think traditional balance sheet, if you look at the corporate treasury model, it's traditionally

41:04

been all cash and cash equivalents.

41:09

And I think that's defective in the Western world because that's crumbling credit and

41:16

you're losing 15% to 20% a year.

41:20

But I think that the illustrative point would be if I took that treasury strategy to Africa

41:27

or South America, where you've got a negative real yield of minus 50%.

41:32

And I don't think there be any debate.

41:34

You can't capitalize a company in the international market on credit.

41:41

You have to.

41:42

So all those international companies, I think their model is flipped from international currencies

41:49

to the US currency.

41:51

If you're an Argentine rancher, you would rather be sitting on stablecoin US dollars as

41:57

you're working capital.

41:59

So I think you're going to see everybody wants to trade up.

42:03

You see the headline in the Wall Street Journal, huge demand for dollars in Bitcoin and

42:09

Turkey last week.

42:11

So I think that you're going to see balance sheets in weak countries trade from a weak

42:18

currency to a strong currency.

42:20

I think that if you're holding a large treasury in the US, you can't hold working capital.

42:28

And you can see this for the past 20 years guy, major companies have all leveraged up.

42:33

If you're a leveraged up with debt, you've got negative working capital.

42:37

The way that a CFO solves the problem is they basically divin in or they buy back with

42:43

all their cash and they convert it to their own stock or they're doing act of vision acquisitions.

42:50

Massive acquisitions, massive buybacks, massive leverage, and anybody holding cash is just

42:58

getting beat to death by negative real yields.

43:02

And I think that if you're a public institutional investor, 6040 is dead because we're at the

43:09

end of the line on interest rates.

43:11

We're not going to negative interest rates.

43:13

I think that political consensus is pretty clear.

43:17

So it makes a lot more sense to replace the bond aspect of your portfolio with property.

43:24

Right?

43:25

If I was giving advice to anybody, if you're wanting to be risk averse, take a portion

43:31

and buy super high quality big tech dominant networks, you buy big tech monopolies and then

43:41

take another portion and buy the highest quality physical 20th century property you can buy.

43:47

Buy city blocks in Manhattan, buy buildings, buy scarce art, buy sports teams, buy the

43:54

Patriots, buy something, but Disney is partly property.

44:01

They own Marvel, they own Mickey Mouse, they own Star Wars, they own intellectual property.

44:08

That's why we love them.

44:10

We don't love commodity cash cows that have to compete in a competitive market for cash

44:18

generation to sell generics.

44:21

We don't love that because that looks like a bond.

44:25

I would buy property, I would buy big tech monopoly because you can assume they can raise

44:32

their prices and they can apple can ship a new product to a billion people overnight for

44:37

a nickel.

44:39

They have a chance.

44:42

And then I would buy digital property as Bitcoin.

44:45

Bitcoin is the dominant digital property.

44:48

There may be other digital properties that will form.

44:52

I'm not comfortable with them enough to recommend them.

44:56

But I think that Bitcoin meets a need for everybody in the world.

45:01

If you want to have a non-sauver and non-cash derivative store of value beyond the control

45:07

of any government or any company that is not a security that is on an open permissionless

45:14

network that you can trade 24, 7, 365, that checks a lot of boxes for a lot of investors

45:22

if you think that 5% of the world wants it and having 5% of it in your portfolio is rational,

45:28

1%, 10%, some amount, I think everybody is going to make that decision based on their

45:34

risk tolerance and their portfolio charter.

45:39

You're definitely trying to democratize education in the last minute and a half.

45:42

I'd be remiss if I didn't bring up sale or academy.

45:44

Can you sort of speak to that?

45:47

You know, it impoverished my family.

45:51

My family's life savings for 200 years were wiped out in the first four weeks that I attended

45:56

MIT.

45:58

It's expensive to get an education and I'm sitting in the back of a lecture hall and the professors

46:04

about there and I'm paying more money than my family could make or save in five years

46:13

to spend a few minutes and I said this isn't right that is insanely expensive and then

46:19

I got to the point where I realized I could just put a video camera on that professor and

46:24

if I upload the courses and if I actually put the textbook in the public domain, I can

46:31

give away the same computer science degree or physics degree to a million people for a

46:37

nickel.

46:38

I can give it away to a billion people for a nickel.

46:42

So we created an organization, Sailor Academy that's eventually going to become Sailor University

46:49

and we give away free college degrees to anybody that wants it.

46:53

All they got to do is have an iPad or a computer.

46:56

We just got approved by the state of Florida to give a free MBA.

47:00

So if you get through the courses, you can get an MBA degree.

47:04

It'll be accredited by Florida.

47:05

It'll cost you nothing other than the electricity and a used iPad.

47:10

I don't think you can teach ballet that way, guy.

47:13

I don't think you can teach golf that way.

47:15

I do think you can teach mathematics on a computer for free.

47:21

The world's got maybe 10 million PhDs.

47:24

We need a billion PhDs.

47:25

You can't spend millions of dollars to get an education.

47:29

We need to give away an education for a nickel to billions of people to move the human

47:36

race forward.

47:37

It is possible.

47:39

I'm on a mission to do it.

47:42

And I like the way things are headed.

47:44

We've passed a million student threshold now.

47:47

We're adding more students every week.

47:51

You know, then MIT added every year and we're giving them the education for free.

47:58

So we'll see where it goes.

48:00

Well, I'm sure it's going to go great places.

48:01

Maybe if I apply, you'll write me a letter of recommendation.

48:04

But I want to be respectful of your time, Michael.

48:06

Thanks for joining us.

48:07

Thanks, everybody, for being here.

48:09

Thank you, Michael Seller.

48:10

Thank you.

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