RV Classic: When Michael Saylor Decided To Go ALL-IN on Bitcoin
Raoul Pal The Journey Man · 2025-06-26 · 2h 09m · View on YouTube →
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Pal and welcome to my show, The
Journeyman, where I travel to that nexus
of understanding between macro crypto
and the exponential age of technology.
Now, I've obviously been in crypto for a
long time since about 2012 is when I was
first involved. But one of the great
interviews I did of all time was the
interview with Michael Sailor back in
2020 that kicked off this whole stampede
of the kind of Bitcoin treasury
strategy. And I'm traveling right now.
And so I thought, you know, what could I
bring you that would be interesting for
you to learn from the genesis of the
idea of why Michael Sailor did this.
Now, you've all seen hundreds of Michael
Sailor videos, but this was the first
long form one with him. It was the one
where we really dug into why he got
there, what he saw in it all, and I
thought it would help you frame it. So,
anyway, enjoy this video from 2020, and
I'll be back next week with something
fresh and new from an OG in this space
who got me into crypto back in 2012.
Okay, enjoy. Join me, Ral Pal, as I go
on a journey of discovery through the
macro, crypto, and exponential age
landscapes. In the journey, man, I talk
to the smartest people in the world so
we can all become smarter together.
Michael, great to get you on Real
Vision. You've become suddenly a legend
in the crypto business and kind of a
real thought leader for many people. and
I just thought it would just be
fascinating to get you on. But before we
go down that kind of crypto journey, I'd
love to hear a bit about your
background, where you came from, and
also Micro Strategies itself. Okay. Um,
I'm an Air Force brat. My father was in
the military. I lived on Air Force bases
my entire life. I got a scholarship from
the United States Air Force to go to
MIT.
I went to MIT and I and I was that
generation where I read science fiction
books. I read them all. A big fan of
Robert Heinline. I decided I was going
to be a rocket scientist and I got an
aeronautics and astronautics degree with
a specialty in spaceship design.
And uh while I was there, I um I
stumbled across uh this school of
management uh uh system dynamics uh the
construction of cons uh computer models
to predict the future. And uh I ended up
getting a second degree in science and
technology and society and the history
of science. So that that was formative
because it was all about paradigm
shifts, the structure of scientific
revolutions and how did people decide to
embrace nuclear power or electricity or
petroleum. And a lot of people think
that technology just kind of is a modern
thing. But of course, and they think
that technology companies are a class of
investments. And I I'm always amused
when finance people talk to me about the
tech sector
because they're only It's kind of an
ignorant statement. There's never been a
successful growth company that wasn't a
technology company. Once you understand
technology for the past hundred years,
John D. Rockefeller was a tech company.
You know, General Electric was a tech
company. craft and Hershey's were tech
companies. So, um, studying technology
for the past 100, two, three, 400 years
and why people do it. That was
interesting to me. I, um, thought I was
going to be a fighter pilot astronaut,
right? But, uh, so I learned to fly in
the Air Force and in my senior year, uh,
Reagan won the Cold War. They ramped
down, the military, cut it in half, and
I had a macroeconomic event combined
with just a random a random uh personal
event that catapulted me into business.
The macroeconomic event was the end of
the Cold War, the draw down of um the
United States military. Uh and uh the
United States had paid for my education,
and I was like on the hook to serve. I
thought I'd be in the military 10 years.
And um my final flight physical my
senior year at MIT, they diagnosed me
with a benign heart murmur and that
disqualified me from flying jets. Now,
by the way, the hilarious part of the
story is they kicked me out of uh the
aviation program. Uh I was a little bit
dejected and then the next week they
came and they said, "You can join the
Air Force Reserve and be a civilian."
and I was going to get paid three times
as much money as a civilian as I would
have made an inforce. So I thought,
well, you just gave me a free education
and I get to like not pay the money
back. By the way, the week before they
said, well, if you don't go in the
military, that's awall. You go to jail.
Okay, so I went from you're going to be
in the military for a decade or you go
to jail to Ronald Reagan is giving you
the gift of your freedom. And by the
way, to make it easier, if you want to
be in the military, you have to wait two
years working a part-time job before we
call you up and then maybe we'll call
you up. So, I kind of got a kick out of
the military and then a doctor said,
"You can't fly." And I was kind of
dejected and I thought, "Well, this must
be a sign from God. I should do
something else." So, I joined the Air
Force Reserve and I left MIT.
I um I worked for about two years and uh
I was going to go get a PhD
uh because I had a very simple list. I
you know every every red-blooded
American male in the 80s had this list.
Rockstar, astronaut,
fighter pod astronaut, Top Gun, right?
Obviously. Yeah. Professor. Okay. Or
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So, I tried my rockstar thing in high
school and then I realized rock stars
don't make any money or at least 99.99%
of musicians make like 20 bucks for the
game. Yeah, I tried it and I just can't
play guitar. I'm just not coordinated
enough. So, I had to give up for one
reason or the other. We give up on
Rockstar. That was our first goal. The
second goal was fighter pilot astronaut
and that that was dashed by some
physician. You were close. By the way,
the hilarious part of the story is a
decade later, I go back to the doctor.
He goes, "Oh, you're perfectly fine." I
said, "I can't be fine. I have benign
heart murmur. I have mitro valve
prolapse." He goes, "No, you don't." I
said, "But but but I'm sure I do. They
kicked me out of the Air Force because I
had it." He said, "Oh, that was a
mistake. They used to make that mistake
all the time. You know, we have much
better equipment now." So, so I left my
fighter pilot astronaut track because of
a mistake and I ended up uh ended up
working but I left a military track on
February March my senior year. I missed
all of the financial aid applications
for fellowships. I couldn't afford I had
no money. I couldn't afford to go to a
PhD program. So, I worked for a year. I
applied for all the fellowships. I got
into MIT and Harvard and I was going to
go get my PhD and be a professor and
life was done. And uh just as I did
that, I informed my boss and my boss
worked at the Dupont Corporation and he
had I had built a computer simulation to
predict the return on the investment of
about a billion dollars of capital
investment in titanium dioxide and they
needed that model to get the board to
give them the money. So, uh, when I
attended my resignation, the guy saw his
billion dollars of capital going away.
And I'm sure he said to someone that
works for him, "Go tell give the kid
whatever he wants, but he can't quit
yet." And I was 24 year old. I happened
to be important to a guy that needed a
billion dollars. You know, I didn't know
I was important. I was just the right
place at the right time. So he tells a
guy who tells a guy that comes to me and
says, 'Okay, well we'll give you a raise
if you stay. I said, 'I don't want a
raise. I want to be a professor. They
said, 'Well, what do you want? I said I
said, rockstar astronaut,
there's only one other thing I want. I
want my own company. So I said, I'll
stay if you finance my I I want uh I got
millions of dollars of contracts. I got
a quarter million dollars up front. I
got free office space for couple of
years. I got all the computer equipment,
IT support. 10 people from Dupont came
over to work for me. They didn't take
any equity. So, it's the best deal ever.
And I you I did this one negotiation, my
best negotiation of my life. They, you
know, I had zero money. In fact, when I
started this company, I went to a bank
and I got the only unsecured loan that
you can get as a 23 year old, which is I
said, "I want to buy $5,000 of
furniture." I mean, they gave me a
$5,000 furniture loan. I was living in
an apartment at 700 bucks a month with
uh with milk crates for bookshelves, and
I thought, five grand, that'll last me
six months. I maybe that'll make it. So,
I got a $5,000 furniture loan. Then I
said to Dupont, "I need a $100,000 cash
check upfront to start." You can imagine
these guys in suits. And they thought
the kid is out of his mind. And and they
said, "We can't give you that. You might
take that money and run off to the
Caribbean like maybe where you are right
now." And I was like, "Well, you know,
you got to give me the money because I
and this is my negotiating story. I
said, "You got to give me the money
because I have no money.
And they looked at me and they're like,
"You got a point there. You got no
money." So I they literally wrote me a
$100,000 check. And by Ral, at this
point on $700 a month rent, I literally
believed that $100,000 would last me for
seven years. I calculated I had seven
years of capital. Took the money and I
started Micro Strategy. And we're at 10
people the first year. And I thought,
I'm going to defer my PhD program and
when this thing fails, I'm going back to
college. And the next year we were 20
people. And the next year we were 40
people. The next year we're 80 people.
The next year we're 300 people. And the
next year people said, "You got to go
public." And and at some point I So what
year what year are we in? What year are
we in now? We started I graduated MIT
87. I started this in ' 89. Started
micro strategy in ' 89. Wow. And again,
I got so lucky, like lucky that I got
misdiagnosed by that doctor, lucky that
Reagan won the Cold War. Then I got
lucky that the dotcom boom took off
because if you recall between 96 and 99,
everybody was going public. And we were
just coming of age in 96, 97,
you know, and in 98 we came public, June
of 98. And of course if we'd come if we
had two years late wouldn't have
happened two years early wouldn't have
happened. We came out right that through
that window and by then it was just too
late for me to go back to college and I
was like stuck as a CEO for better
worse. So that's how Micro Strategy was
founded. It was if I c I couldn't do it
again like in that Twilight Zone episode
where the CEO goes back and gets all of
his knowledge to try again. and he ends
up the janitor. If you put me back there
again,
I'm like, well, I need the Cold War to
end and I need a doctor to make a
mistake and I need someone to tell me to
do the opposite of what I wanted to do
and then, you know, it's just all
random. So, were you a risk taker with
the firm? So, as you go through the the
journey from, you know, going public, so
everyone's a risk taker when you start a
business, you have to be, but then after
that, were you a risk taker? I mean how
did how did that kind of corporate
journey evolve you as CEO? You know I in
hindsight I was a risk taker but at the
time I didn't realize I was taking the
risk. The most dangerous kind of risk
I you know like uh like if I if I could
go back I would give myself counsel to
do things differently. But yeah we we
did take risk. Although um
one thing that I I did is I just was
always very passionate about technology.
So we launched Micro Strategy as a
business intelligence company and we
were always inventing the next thing. By
the way, the first um the first risk
that I took was I created a piece of
software to create computer simulations
on a Macintosh. And older, wiser minds,
professors from MIT told me, "Uh, that's
an awful idea. Um, the Macintosh is not
going to win. Everybody knows that
business people use PC." Okay, we were
like a million-dollar company then. I
said, "Well, I guess you're right, but
the Macintosh is much more beautiful."
and better technology than the PC. So we
doubled and doubled again
and they and the professor that gave me
that advice was still running a $300,000
a year consulting business and we are 4
million with with the wrong technology.
So then the professor asked me what I
was doing. I said, "Well, I'm creating
executive information systems using this
spreadsheet called wings with a
hyperscripting language." And that
professor said,"Well, all my friends
tell me that Excel is going to be the
choice for all big businesses and Wings
is going to fail." So I said, 'Well, you
may be right, but Excel doesn't have a
scripting language, so we'll try it for
a while. Well, we doubled again and
doubled again, and we got to be 30
million. And he was right, and he's
still running his $350,000 consulting
business. And then he asked me what I
was doing. And I said, 'Well, I've
decided to convert to Microsoft Visual
Basic and we're going to create
relational analytics on top of big
databases. And he said, well, do you
have any experience big database? I
said, no, none at all. And he said,
well, you know, Visual Basic is not what
people use for software engineering.
They use C++. I said, yeah, but I can't
figure that out yet. So, we did it and
we doubled again to $60 million. and he
was still running his $350 million
$350,000 consulting business, not making
a mistake. At which point I realized,
you know, you're kind of an idiot. You
need to write us the software in C++. So
we took the money that we made making
the first set of mistakes and we wrote
it in C++ and we doubled again. And
then, you know, I'm sure someone would
have said don't go public, but basically
I would say we mistake. You're not very
good at listening to people. That's your
problem. You know, I always chase after
these shiny things,
okay? But but there's a method to the
madness, which is you're better to be
correct and do something that works now
and then figure it out three or four
years from now than to do nothing and
sit and wait and be beat to death. So I
mean the short of the story is yeah I
took like six or seven risk and and
every three years we had to invent
something new web intelligence, mobile
intelligence. We launched a we launched
a business called alarm.com. Oh by the
way I got really enamored with domain
names. I you know I bought
microstrategy.com
for my email and then I got lazy and I
thought I hate typing micro. Wouldn't it
be better if I just had the email
sailorstrategy.com?
So, I bought it. You know, back in the
day when you could buy it for $100,000,
I bought the word strategy and still own
it. So, then I thought, this is kind of
cool. What other words could I buy? So,
I thought it'd be cool to be sailor at
michael.com.
So, I bought michael.com and then I
bought mike.com and then I was like,
then I bought wisdom. And by by the way,
the world needs hope, right? Everybody
needs hope. I own hope. I own hope.com.
So, I bought all these domain names.
Hope Allah. Do you still own them? Do
you still own them? I own Hope. If you
would like Hope, by the way, every about
once every month, someone wants to buy
Hope for me or they want some Hope, but
they always offer me like a hundred or
$200,000
and I'm hoping for a hundred million
dollars.
So, I just keep it. But that's a
meandering way of saying I got really
enamored with domains back in the mid
90s to the late 90s. And then I started
thinking these are like real estate and
cyerspace. What if we could
commercialize them? So I commercialized
strategy.com and I created this like uh
it was like a Twitter subscription. You
could sign up for alerts to anything
under the sun. And the company went from
zero to 100 million in one year and then
went from a 100red million to zero in
one year. And I you know it was
it was it was interesting. I learned a
lot from that. I had the skin flaided
off my back.
But, you know, then but then I went on
to alarm.com and but we'd launched these
under the micro strategy umbrella. And
the idea behind alarm was what if you
could wire all your home alarm systems
into the internet and they would talk to
you and talk to your phone and they
would tell they would call you and tell
you if someone broke into your house and
then and uh you know not a brilliant
idea today Amazon and Google and Apple
are doing it. Pretty unique in the year
1998 or 1999. Wow. So we launched that
and uh we launched it on alarm.com. So,
if you go and type alarm.com right now,
what you'll find it's a it's a billion
dollar company. Uh, we eventually spun
it off. We made a decent amount of money
off it. Then they went public with
Goldman Sachs and it's it's a billion
dollar NASDAQ traded company now. So,
that's one of my babies. It flew away
from home. I created another one called
But I bought Angel Ral Angel. A N G. My
my theory of these was very simple,
which is people have a hard time
spelling and they have a hard time
remembering things. So, everybody gets
taught how to spell angel or hope when
they're in high school or junior high.
So, if I tell you my charity or my
company or whatever is on Angel, you go
a A N G. You don't got to go to the
Google. You don't have to go to Yahoo.
You don't have to search for it. If you
search, by the way, for voice on Google,
you get a billion hits. You have to sift
through a billion. If your name of your
company is something voice or whatever,
voice of the people, there's a billion
things you're fighting with. If you own
voice.com,
you go to the top. By the way, not only
do you go to the top of the search
engine, right? Nobody needs the search
engine. You can bypass the search
engine. Everybody knows how to type in
voice, right? So the idea was own the
word in cyberspace. It's a scarce asset
right
for 10 you know thousand years people
been using the word so own the word. So
we basically commercialized on angel the
idea of interactive voice response like
Emma sorry not like Siri Siri or or or
or the like or Alexa and uh we did it
back in 2000. anybody could basically
build an interactive voice response
application. We plugged it into your
telephone and that started to work and
but it was a SAS application. We ran it
out of the cloud and you plugged it in
your telephone and we built it to a
certain point but it was a totally
different brand. It was a different
business model and and I had an
enterprise software company and this was
not enterprise software and it drove all
of the accountants crazy. So eventually
we realized it was more valuable to
someone else than it was to us. And we
sold it for about $120 million.
Uh and so that was my next little hit
with a domain. And then then at some
point I started to realize that if
you're not the best in the world at
something, nobody wants you for
anything. Okay? And it's like, you know,
in the early days we all thought, well,
I got $30 million. I can build this app.
Everybody wanted to be WhatsApp.
Everybody wanted to be Instagram or
whatever. I want I'm I gotta But if I
had a nickel for every time someone said
I have an idea for a mobile app, you
know, it's like, yeah, you do, right?
And it's worth a nickel. I launched all
these things. Some work, some didn't
work, right? And I, you know, I tried I
tried many of them. And then I
eventually realized that you need to
focus, right? It's the first hurdle
is is can you acquire a thing? Can you
build something? Okay, you generally
can. I mean, can you buy that thing? The
second hurdle is can you um can you
compete in that market, right? Can you
can you maintain a competitiveness in
that market? That means investing every
year as much as the next best person is
investing forever, right? Can you stay
competitive? That's a higher hurdle. But
the highest hurdle is can you
commercialize or can you profit from the
thing? So a lot of people can do a
thing. Yeah. Most people can't do a
thing better consistently forever. And
even if you can, can you make money off
it? Okay. So this is this is an
articulation of stoicism. Just because
you can do a thing doesn't mean you
should do a thing. And every young man,
he sees everything. He's like, I have to
do all this stuff. I have an idea for
this and this and this and this and
this. So I I went through that journey
of do this and do and it kind of worked
for you. You had more successes than
failures. I I failed up. I got a lot of
scars but I but it was humbling to I
mean you have to have the failures uh
along with the successes because if you
if you don't fail eventually you get
this big failure where it all comes
crashing down. So I guess I adopted
along the way this idea of stoicism and
I realized that you need to put all of
your heart and soul into one thing. And
so at that point we sold off the one
company, we spun off the other thing.
And I realized, you know, my destiny was
I could I could run Micro Strategy and
be the world's best business
intelligence company solely focused upon
that one thing. that's what we're going
to be. And um I went back to doing that
and I let the other things go and I let
the domain portfolio just sit and um it
and and we just we're the little engine
that could focused on making our
business intelligence better with web
intelligence and mobile intelligence and
cloud intelligence and and now our cool
thing is hyper intelligence. It's like
it's like know the answer before you ask
the question without clicking on
anything, you know, and I'll tell you
about that in a bit if you want. But
yeah, I'm super interested. I I was just
busy minding my own business. I got off
I used to tweet, you know, I used to
tweet all the time. I got off Twitter. I
focused on my core business. And then
eventually I came back. I discovered
Bitcoin. The day I put on Twitter that
we bought $250 million worth of Bitcoin,
the entire hive mind of crypto Twitter
came to life and they went through every
tweet that I had put out there, a
thousand of them, and then someone
dredges up the tweet where I had once
upon a time in my imminent brilliance
discovered that Bitcoin was dead and it
was going to zero. And I
enthusiastically posted that back in
2013. And and everybody wanted to know
what I thought about that. And and and
what I got to tell you is I didn't
remember I ever had an opinion on
Bitcoin until they reminded me that I
had once been utterly wrong on it. And
so I I guess that's very humbling. But
uh but I I love the entire crypto
Twitter community. I mean, I think
they're the smartest, coolest, most
interesting,
uh, charismatic individuals. You know,
when they're right, they're right. When
they're wrong, they're still kind of
interestingly right. And, uh, and I
think they make us better versions of
oursel. But putting that aside, I was
minding my own business running micro
strategy, try to be the best business
intelligence company we can. And I would
say that's 150% focus on the P&L. And I
was not you know and and with regard to
investment my investment world consisted
of this RL it's like
I was a technology investor in the year
2012 I published a book the mobile wave
and in the mobile wave I in essence said
software is leaping from out from under
your desk beyond your laptop onto a
mobile device. It's going from solid
state to liquid state to vapor state and
it's going to be like vapor all around
us. And what that means is that the
entire software uh world is becoming
uhworked
uhorked vapor state uh incredibly
powerful dematerialized versions of of
products and services. And so the
summary is is um Apple computers going
to rule the world. Buy Apple, Facebook,
Amazon, Google. Go. If you read the
book, you know, that's what I wrote. I
mean, the epiphany was 2009. I asked my
niece who was nine years old, you know,
what do you want for Christmas? And she
said, I want the big Apple. And I said,
you want a trip to New York City? And
she goes, no, I want an iPad. Okay. And
I thought, Apple's going to replace New
York City. Apple's going to rule the
world. So my investment thesis was quite
simple. You know, Apple, Facebook,
Amazon, Google. A simple way for a tech
investor to think is you buy a dominant
network according to Metaf's law that's
won the market, the mobile network, the
information network, the video network,
the social network. I just named Apple,
Google, YouTube, Facebook, the you know
commercial. Very simple. buy the
dominant network and wait while all the
naysayers on Wall Street and all the
talking heads and all the people that
know better tell you why you I you know
hedge I hate the word hedge like like
like
uh you know I could tell you Wall Street
luminaries in 2012 would lecture me on
they would say you know you shouldn't
buy too much Apple stock we've got a
we've got a mutual fund and what we do
is if your Apple stock gets to be too
much of
computer portfolio, we sell it and buy
HP and IBM to diversify you, you know.
And I said, well, guys, don't you
realize that eventually Apple's going to
eat them all and there won't be a need
for HP or IBM or anybody? And what
happens when Apple is 150% of all the
profit in the entire tech indust
industry, right? Like, well, we don't
see it that way. Okay, that's what they
thought. And then they go, well, you
know, we're going to protect you if uh
if your share of your portfolio is too
much technology. we're gonna sell
technology and we're going to buy all
these other assets. And I was like, but
guys, what happens when technology eats
everything and there aren't any other
assets? Okay, in my opinion, and I'm
going to be snarky here, I think an
ignorant investor thinks that technology
companies are a part of of the index or
they're a part of the industry. In my
opinion, as a science historian,
John D. Rockefeller was running a
technology company. If you study the
history of Standard Oil, he did
everything that Jeff Bezos did a hundred
years earlier. And if you study General
Electric, once upon a time, electricity
was pretty technically interesting. And
if you've actually been to the Hershey's
factory in Pennsylvania,
not a one of these investors could build
the damn thing. Hershey's factory is a
computer built in steel welded which is
the most majestic
majestic creation of mankind you could
possibly imagine. Imagine writing a
computer program and billions of dollars
of steel and moving parts that spits out
a hundred,000 candy bars an hour, you
know, without contaminating them. You
know, it it's you think it's not
technology or or craft. You know, I
create ketchup.
The technology was I had clean room
technology. I had to take the tomatoes,
manufacture the ketchup, put in a seal
container without any bacteria in it so
that it didn't rot over the course of
the next year. Okay? It's clean room
technology. No different than Intel
semiconductor chips. So, when these
people think, "Oh, well, we're not
buying a technology company." It's like
every company that ever succeeded was a
technology company and the only reason
it grew was it had technology superior
to everybody else. So I I happen to, you
know, back to 2012, I thought my
investment thesis is you buy technology
companies that have a dominant place in
their industry that are going to eat
everything and then you just wait while
all the people that don't really think
hard about this short you or diversify
out of you. And eventually some
80year-old investor that's got more
money than God will discover that Apple
computer is not some new fangled, you
know, uh, gimmick, right? Eventually,
and he will buy it at 10x what you
bought it for and but and then it will
double again, right? and he will make
some money and you will have made some
money, but you'll have to be beat to
death by well well-educated,
well-intentioned, diversifying experts
while you wait for that to happen. And
they're going to say things like, "We're
going to hedge you out of this or we
don't want to don't want to take too
much risk on Apple, don't want to take
too much risk on Google." What if you
had diversified your Google search
engine into every other search engine
for the last 20? You know, one of the
things I've talked about many times is
there's a lot of people who want to
trade. They think trading makes money.
When you look at people who built real
wealth, it's basically one bet. You
know, Bill Gates is who he is because he
didn't sell his stock essentially, you
know, and that's the same. People take
one clear bet, filter out all of the
noise, and just pursue it.
Raul, you know, I listen to to uh your
phrase irresponsibly long, right? But
but you know, it's really tongue and
cheek. You're not irresponsibly
long. You're you're just you're just uh
unfortunately rational.
Or maybe the word is is uh is like uh
maybe uh slightly early being rational
like you're making a rational decision.
Uh no un what's the word for unpopular.
You're rational and unpopular. Exclus
exclusively rational. Maybe that's the
word exclusively rational. So once you
understand what's going to happen, you
kind of got to do it. I I bought a lot
of Bitcoin recently, like over the past
before that. Why the hell did you have
so much cash?
You know, that was the question I was
thinking. Okay, great. You bought
Bitcoin. Alec, how come you had so much
cash? Aren't you supposed to make cash
if you're in business? You're supposed
to make money, but what do you do with
it? It's just sitting in the business.
Okay. Well, th this takes me back uh
back to where we went off on my little
tangent, which is I was minding my own
business running Micro Strategy where,
you know, running the P&L. I was a wage
earner. You know, you go and you make a
salary and you spend less money than you
make. It's like a it's a 20th century
idea. My dad taught me that like
depression error economics. Spend less
than you make. So, we were making money,
spending less than we were making,
putting cash in the bank, and and we're
struggling to compete against, you know,
my competitors are IBM, Oracle, SAP, you
know, Microsoft, they're all hundred
times bigger than us. We're the
independent, we're the, you know, the
Switzerland. So, we're doing that. That
kind of takes up a lot of your
attention. And I'm not really paying
attention to macroeconomics.
I don't you know the my my investment
thesis as I said was buy tech stocks but
like you can't buy tech stocks as a
public company CEO and put the treasury
into tech stocks and you certainly
couldn't do it in the year 2012. You
might do it in your personal portfolio
but but the the conventional wisdom if
you're running a corporate treasury is
you're going to buy you're going to put
cash and you're going to buy short-term
treasuries short-term T bills. And I
happen to believe before the financial
crisis, you know, I remember the time
when you can make five and a half
percent interest on overnight money.
We're getting five five and a half%
yield. You have $500 million, you're
getting paid $30 million. By the way, I
happen to remember when savings accounts
paid 6% interest. It's like, and by the
way, we didn't think we were getting a
good deal from the bank. We thought that
was totally reasonable.
In every conventional wisdom was the
risk-free cost to capital is 6 to 8% and
then you got to tack on a risk premium
of 4%. So your real cost of capital is
12% to do anything and that's the old
day. So that that's the way I thought
about the treasury and then I thought
and then there were other people. What
else can I do with the money? You can
buy your own stock back
or you can buy another company. Now I
teach a course in uh management theory
to all my managers and my number one
question is how do you wreck a software
company in my history and by Ral I I'm
like the longest presiding public
company CEO in the enterprise software
industry nobody has been CEO of a public
enterprise software company longer than
me 22 years 88 quarters I count them one
at a time everybody came and gone Okay.
How do you wreck a software company? You
know, you have an answer for me. What do
you think? Number one way to wreck it.
I'm assuming it's going to be acquire
somebody else. Make a acquisition. Make
a bad acquisition. Okay. Bingo. The CEO
of SAP comes in. He lasts for nine
months. He buys autonomy. They take 11
billion write off. It's pretty
impressive to burn 11 billion dollars in
11 months on one transaction that you
probably spent I don't know a few hours
on. I mean like how how many lifetimes
how many a million lifetimes to make 11
billion dollars. So um the number one
way to kill a company is make a bad
acquisition. So I got all this cash. Do
I go buy something? I I have lived long
enough to see 90% Yeah. How about
Microsoft buying Nokia? That was a good
idea, right? Uh by the way, you could
have seen that one coming a mile away.
That was the most awful idea you could
imagine. Uh you want to count the
number? 90% of all acquisitions end
awfully, right? And and there's a few
accretive ones. If you buy a small
company, pump it through a massive
distribution channel, jack it up by a
factor of 10 with no variable cost, you
know, maybe it works, but acquisitions
are bad. So, I'm not going to buy a
company. So, what else do you do with
the cash? You buy your own stock back.
Okay. How many how many companies have
gone Toys R Us gone bankrupt because
they bought that, you know, they lever
up, they issue a massive dividend, they
drain the capital, right? drain all the
capital out of the company. They're
running on um What happened if you were
actually running on uh on vapor when
COVID hit? Yeah. It's all over.
Everybody is insolvent. They're all out
of business overnight.
Okay. So, that's another way to kill the
company. You drain all your capital.
So, so what's left?
What what the heck is left? Okay. Steve
Jobs is my hero. Steve Jobs had a near a
near-death experience with his company.
Apple computer was almost, you know,
there was a point when Michael Dell told
Apple they should just give the money
back to the shareholders and shut down,
right? That's a tweet. You probably
don't like coming back.
Okay. So, Steve Jobs kept all that cash,
you know, till the day he died and they
accumulated. They didn't buy back the
stock. I would, you know, I thought
maybe I would like Micro Strategy to not
die and so I was going to keep the
capital. And by the way, so I can serve
the customers, you know, you have
nightmares of your CFO, the nightmare is
you let a customer down, right? like
some when someone actually invests $10
million in my company software and then
they build something with it and they
deploy it, you know, like you gonna go
tell them, oh, we decided not to update
the software. Let me put it a different
way. How would you feel if you put a
hund00 million into Bitcoin and then the
minor said, we're turning off the rigs
and the developer said, "We're not going
to patch the bug or upgrade and so it's
just going to stop working." Right? So
you have a you have an ethical moral
obligation to your customers. And a lot
of times these CEOs, they kind of they
kind of get cute. This the problem with
the the LBO guys. We're going to get
cute. We're going to buy I'm gonna buy
Marvel comics. I'm going to leverage it
up. Drain the capital out of it and
bankrupt Marvel. Right. Happened. Right.
Sad happened. Right. So don't want to do
that. So what can I do? I just leave the
cash in the bank and I'm I'm buying the
stock back at some rate and then along
comes COVID
and and COVID is this transformational
experience. You know Thomas Cune in the
structure of scientific revolutions
which is the seminal work on the history
of science. He wrote when the paradigm
shift comes along, right? The old guard,
you know, when we invent uh antibiotics
or or the science of sterilization or or
nuclear energy or whatever it is we
invent, the old guard rejects it. No one
accepts it until they're dead unless
there's a war.
And the one thing that'll get people to
change their mind is when they die and
their kids take over. That changes some
minds, right? Right. Yeah. And and and
the other thing that gets people to
change their mind is a war, you know,
World War II, you know, and and as as
Trosky said, you may not be interested
in war, but war is interested in you.
And when the war arrives, you all of a
sudden get interested in stuff that you
were able to ignore because it was of an
academic interest to people somewhere
else. So this year we got two wars. We
got a war on COVID and it and it and by
the way, what's the war on COVID done? I
would have fired you, Ralph, if you told
me you wanted to work from somewhere
other than my office. I you know, I
would have said, "You don't show up to
my office. You're not sitting next to
me. You don't have a job here." Last
year, I was firing people that didn't
want to come to work.
Let me tell you what happens next. COVID
hits, lockdown hits. I'm like, I'm
hating that idea. Then I got to have a
meeting. And at 9:00 a.m. in the
morning, we got a meeting and we're on
on video conferencing technology, A,
which I will not mention. And the line
drops, the sound doesn't work, there's a
warable, I blow, throw a little hissy
fit,
all my IT people scramble. Uh, by 11:00
a.m. we're on video conferencing
technology two and I got 12 executives
and we're talking blah blah blah blah
blah and two of the executives freeze
and one of them doesn't work and I throw
a second hissy fit.
by 100 p.m. they're like, "Well, you
know, Mike, we've got this thing called
Zoom, and we haven't tried it yet, but
we thought we might try that." I said,
"Hook it up." By 2 p.m. we're using
Zoom. It's working well, like you and I
are working well. By 400 PM, email goes
out from the CEO to the entire company.
Zoom is now a corporate standard. We
will discontinue all other uses of video
conferencing. Everybody in the company
will be certified on Zoom. Zoom
webinars, Zoom video recordings. You
know, a stipen to purchase your own home
microphone will go out to everybody. Buy
green screens if you need to. I expect
it to be done. No more meetings other
than Zoom. By 9:00 am the next morning,
2,500 people have turned left. Okay,
that's what war will do to you, okay? in
a hurry. It's like because you got to.
Now, the first war was the COVID war and
that changed everybody's P&L
and that's half the business. I have a
$500 million operating business and we
sell enterprise software and and in a
matter of weeks, we needed to figure out
how to sell that stuff virtually and how
to deliver service virtually. And 500
consultants went from being on-site to
being uh to being remote. And you know
like the war hit Ral and we started
worrying about what's going to happen to
our business. Nobody knows. Four weeks
later 500 people had gone had gone
remote and I was waiting to see like
whether a meteorite was going to hit me
on the head and you know whether whether
that was going to be mass destruction
would the revenues crumple would
customers go ballistic crazy. Okay. And
then here's what happened.
We stopped spending $5 million a quarter
on on running around on on flying around
in hotels.
Our next $15 million worth of marketing
events, trade shows got cancelled on us.
Then we realized we couldn't stage
$150,000
symposiums even we wanted to.
And then we realized that every
expensive sales and marketing and
services activity we had previously
hereto for engaged in was no longer
appropriate or practical or possible or
relevant or necessary.
We're like
I think I just made $40 million a year
and by $40 million a year on a $500
million a year revenue stream. I got
kicked
I got kicked in the ass with a golden
horseshoe.
[Laughter]
Okay, I don't want to make light of it
because a lot of people are suffering a
lot of pain. Okay, and there's an you
know someone's one person's s cost
savings is another person's revenue,
right? So if you look at the other point
of view, there's a lot of people in the
events industry, the hotel industry, the
airline industry, etc. And they're
suffering, right? But I'm the CEO. I
have to be the fiduciary for my
shareholders and for my customers. And
at the end of the day, what happened at
the P&L is we realized we were going to
be much more profitable and be much more
efficient after this despite the CEO
kicking and screaming, being dragged
into the virtual age. Right. Right. So
that that's me. I had an opinion. I was
wrong. War hit me. Bang on the head.
Okay. I see it differently today. And by
the way, at that point, I saw what
everybody else in the virtual world had
been seeing so clearly three years
before me, four years before me. But I
had to go through three different
vendors. And I had by I had to change my
technology. My customers had to be
forced to take my technology. My
employees had to be forced. If I had
walked in and I'd said to the CIOS that
I deal with, I'm not going to meet with
you face to face. I want you to zoom to
me. 12 months ago, they would have told
me to, you know, go pound sand. So, what
happened really was the war changed
everybody's behavior, right? And and and
uh so we got uh
now I'm going to pick it's a letin
quote, right? I mean, there are decades
when nothing happens and there are weeks
when decades happen, right? And and so
the war didn't change me. The war
changed everybody. And so my P&L is
different. My operating income is
different. And now that takes us back to
the balance sheet. The balance sheet
which was an afterthought. I got a bunch
of money. I'm buying some stock back.
Our stock, you know, got hammered
through the floor.
And then what happens?
I'm watching the market
and and
I'm living the pain of Main Street and
I'm watching that all of these operating
business are getting destroyed getting
destroyed and it's just the most
horrific awful thing of my career.
Horror, right? It's like I I I have no
words for it. I'm not even going to
articulate the words for it except for
to say I watched and felt with a
horrifying pain the dismantling of
my entire world view
of which
not a big fan. Okay. Now, having watched
that change,
then I watched a V-shaped recovery with
Talking Heads on MSNBC
and I just watched the market
go like that and I watched every equity
go through the roof. You know, Apple's
stock goes, it doubles even though any
rational person's how can Apple be worth
twice as much when half of the world's
economy just got wrecked and when
when their revenues and their earnings
are looking constant. So that the
earnings multiples blow through the
roof, right? It's like and then I watch
this is one that blows my mind.
If you told me, if you're a bond
salesman and you said to me, "Mike, I
have an idea for you. I want you to buy
30-year 30-year government bonds that
are going to yield 2% interest for the
rest of your life."
I said, "Are you out of your mind? Are
you out of you must be crazy to sell me
these bonds?"
Those bonds had a 22%
gain in 12 weeks. So, you would have
made a 22% gain on the long bond index.
I'm like, and I feel like an idiot.
Like, I would have made money buying
bonds at 2% yield for the rest of my
life. I would have made money buying
leveraged equity of everything as the
world is going through the floor. And
I'm holding my little bucket of cash
as this is happening.
And that takes me to my second war. What
the first war is the war on COVID. The
second war is the war on currency. But
like people say there's a currency war.
I heard it. I didn't understand it. I
thought currency war. By the way, I
don't even know if everybody agrees or
even under interprets it the way I do. I
thought currency war was
was the US wants to weaken its currency
so that our exports are more affordable
in Europe. I thought, well, that's kind
of cool. You know, when the U when the
currency weakens, all of my revenues in
Europe denominated in the euros go up by
20% and my revenues in dollars go up by
20%. And it's good for my stock and
dollars. It's like that's kind of that's
kind of cute. That's our currency
adjustment. We get that every quarter.
And if the US dollar is weak, we feel
good about it. When the US dollar is
strong, we have currency headwinds.
Okay, that's second order currency war.
Okay. The first order currency war is
every everybody in the world declared
war on currency and
your hundred million in the bank that
bought a bond
that you know maybe I I buy a bond for a
million bucks that yields $50,000 a
year. Okay, that's an asset that's
interesting to me. I want to retire. I
buy a million dollar bond yielding 5%
interest and I get 50,000 a year. When
the currency war hits now that bond
trades up to $2 million and it yields 20
50,000 a year but it's 2 and a.5% yield.
So what happened was the bonds shoot
through the roof and they appreciate by
100%.
What really happened in the past 12
weeks is assets we saw asset inflation
of 25 to 40%.
Okay, CPI is such a misnomer, right?
Like people talk about inflation like
it's CPI. Well, you can measure the
inflation rate of of consumer products
and services. Yeah, I buy a Domino's
pizza and I buy Netflix and I buy
YouTube. Those aren't inflating. When I
measure the market basket of consumer
assets, it's like my retired dad would
like to buy a million dollar bond that
yields $50,000 a year in interest. When
I measure that, you're talking about,
you know, six, seven, eight% in a normal
year as the money supply increases. All
of the things that I want to buy,
I'm being snarky. All the things I want
to buy are going up eight% a year in a
good year. All the things that are being
given away for me that are manufactured
by machine. There's also a function of
this and just listen to you just
clarified a thought for me. Right? The
function of inflation is generally
driven by demand. Right? I I don't
believe it's necessarily fully a
monetary phenomena. Maybe demand has
passed, but demographics plays a big
part. Right? The largest demographic
wave of all time are the baby boomers.
Those guys, guess what? They want to buy
retirement assets,
you know, and so you know that, you
know, there's a perceived value in that.
So, it's kind of crowded within certain
things
and it's created this enormous bubble in
it. And and that's that's where my
dispute is with with all the entire
media fixation on inflation as CPI. It's
like, do I want to buy a million dollars
worth of Domino pizzas and do I want to
buy a million dollars worth of Netflix
or a million dollars worth of consumable
products or do I want to buy a million
dollars worth of assets that let me not
work for the rest of my life? Well, that
they're measuring the things that are
easy to manufacture with a robot or a
factory. They're not measuring the
things that I want that because the
things that I want are scarce assets
that have a yield. And you know, let's
take a share of Apple stock. Well, you
wanted a share of Apple stock when it
was
quarter of what it costs today. Yeah.
Okay. It now costs four times as much.
How can you say inflation is 2% if the
uh if the thing I wanted to buy went up
by 400% and without the underlying
business changing by without the
underlying business changing. So now we
come back to currency war the wars on
the currency and and the result is 25%
inflation on current if you're holding
currency and you want and what do you
what can you convert treasury assets
too? You can convert them into other
assets.
Okay, I'm not going to buy Domino's
pizzas with treasury assets. I'm gonna
I'm gonna eventually buy a a bo a stock
that has a dividend or I'm a a a stream
of cash flows or I'm going to buy a bond
that has a stream of cash flows. And
right now, the bond that I can buy is
going to yield 1.3% interest for the
rest of my life. So now you start
thinking, but I I didn't have to really
think about it until I got hit in the
head with the 2x4 of this currency war.
And and then if I wasn't paying
attention,
the internet explodes, MSNBC explodes. I
if if you haven't noticed it now, right,
I mean, you must be living under a rock
somewhere, right? It it's pretty
noticeable. So then I start getting
introduced to the concept of I always
knew nominal interest rates were low.
Yeah, that I get. But then I start
thinking about real interest rates, but
I was just, oh, the real interest rate
on a 10-year bond is like, well, minus
1%. Well, no, it's not. I mean, it's
only minus 1% if you buy into the notion
that CPI is is inflation.
But if you actually start thinking in
terms of of inflation is a vector based
upon what you want to acquire with the
cash then you realize the rate at which
tech equity has been inflating is a lot
faster than like what's the what's the
rate at which Apple stock has been going
up is that its CPI right is that 10% is
that 50%. So now if I look at asset
inflation, I start thinking you know at
at that point the real yield on my cash.
Yeah. But there is a c but the bonds had
a capital gains as you pointed out
before. So the net offset of of bonds
over the course of this year bonds
versus NASDAQ has been a pretty close
run. Yeah, you're you're right. It's all
doing well. If you were smart enough, by
the way, I it it's totally counter to my
thinking. How could a person rationally
lock up it his company's capital for the
next 30 years for 2% interest? See, if
if I'm the CEO and you said, "No, you
you you'd invest it back in the business
at the very least. If not, you're saying
your business cannot generate a 2% ROI."
Okay, here's my my problem is moral
hazard. If I took $500 million and I put
it into a 30-year bond yielding 2%
interest and if any if if any
rational economist took over the Fed,
you would think the interest rates going
to go to 4% or 5%. The inter everybody
knows that the economy cannot function
with 0% interest forever, right?
Interest rate is the value of time.
We're we're in a war with time. We want
to stop. Yeah. Will you give me
everything that you own? Will you give
it to me for the rest of your life if I
return onethird of it to you when you're
dead?
Right. That's what 1% interest is, Ral.
Right. Right. Give me everything you
own. I will give you 1% of it back each
year for the next 30 years. And when
you're dead, you will get 30 your heirs
will get 30% of what you gave me. Now,
so here's here's the moral hazard. I
well or the dilemma for me as a CEO.
If I invest the 500 million in the
30-year T bills at 2%, I'm taking the
risk. I'm I'm making the bet that no
rational actor will ever fix the problem
in in in the Fed, right? I'm like I have
to bet all my company's treasury that
the world will stay irrationally priced
forever. It kind of it was the right bet
for a Japanese CEO to have made. It's
like by the way, you know, if Ray Dalio
says cash is trash, right? Like um I
don't know if he says it. the trolls
say. He says it, but uh like I'm going
to wait for 30 years and see whether
whether the government has inflated the
cash and then you're going to give me
back the 500 million in 30 30 years.
It's like I that doesn't make any sense
because I'm pretty much be I I can't but
I can't construct a rational argument
whereby 30 years from now I will have
made money on it. But here's here's what
I would think. Any rational person would
think that you lock up $500 million for
30 years at 2% interest. When the
interest rate goes to 4%,
your bonds are going to trade down by 30
or 40% and you're going to lose the $200
million, right? So, when I'm looking at
I'm thinking, you know, that's the
craziest thing ever, right? I can't
imagine that. So, if you're a shorter
term trader, I'm like, okay, have at it.
Buy the 30-year long bond index. you're
g but but no one seems to be thinking
they're going to hold it for 30 years.
So but I I can't get that. So So on one
hand I look at that as just massive
hazard moral hazard craziness. And on
the other hand I look at all these all
the equities I'm like well I can't just
buy individual equities. I mean the
there's too much equity risk there. And
then meantime I just watch you know I
watch the talking heads. We get beat to
death with this issue of real return.
And I start to go to school on that. And
I realize that you can calculate a real
yield. If if your real yield is take the
asset inflation rate and subtract that
from the the nominal yield, then the
conclusion you come to pretty quickly is
that the real yield on cash
this year is minus 30%.
Minus 25%. Right? If you were holding
the cash, if you were holding a 30-year
bond, you broke even or may you know or
maybe you're okay. But I I but I'm not.
If you're holding a two, three, fouryear
instrument, the real yield is obscenely
bad is minus 10, 20, 15, 20, 30. It
depends upon how you see that. The real
yield on on on
uh anything I was holding is bad. Now
the question is how do I get a positive
yield?
Like I I I use this phrase. I said, you
know, I come to the horrifying
conclusion that I'm sitting on a $500
million ice cube
that's melting.
It's It's melting at 6% in a good year
and and for the last decade, it's been
melting at 6%. Okay, I I was there, but
I could ignore it. In good times, you
ignore the 6%.
But then when you have to actually get
educated on macroeconomics, you realize
it's been melting at 6%. And then you
realize that this year it's melting 25%.
And then you have to look out over the
next three years and ask the question,
is it going to continue to melt at 20% a
year for the next three years? Is it
going to melt at 15% or 10%?
you know and uh if you think of it in
your terms because basically part of
your construct is that opportunity cost
is is your negative yield essentially
right now let's say you're a corporate
treasurer and you've got 500 or the CEO
you've got $500 million as you said you
could choose to make an acquisition well
guess what it's 40% more expensive now
in in the sector that you want to
acquire so as you say your opportunity
cost has been incredibly expensive by
sitting in cash. So to offset that,
which I guess is what your mentality is,
you need an asset that can offset that
opportunity cost without overpaying for
the asset. You know, R and you say you
say a wise thing that investor gets. I
was CEO. I didn't get it. I like I
didn't get some things until I got it.
Okay. Until this year, I would go to my
investors and I said, "Well, we got a
great company. We got 500 million, 600
million in cash, a great bulletproof
balance sheet." And they looked at me
like like we're not going to value the
cash. Like they didn't value my cash.
They thought, you know, they thought it
was like worth nothing. And you know, I
kind of took offense to that. Like they
don't get it. Like that the cash means
that we're indestructible. We're going
to live forever and we can do the right
thing by our employees, our
shareholders, and by our customers,
right? And why why is it I'm being
punished for being virtuous, for saving
my money, and for being responsible and
conservative, right? And I was kind of,
you know, angry, you know, not angry,
irritated a little bit, like they don't
get it. And then I realized they kind of
do get it. They had a different
perspective. I just didn't understand
what they were trying to tell me. And
their perspective is, I mean, there's no
rational investor that would raise a
billion dollars and say, "My my plan is
to put it in cash and wait, right? You
can't go raise that money." So their
perspective was assets are inflating at
6% or 7% a year in a good year. If I'm
not beating 7%, I can't stay in this
business. So, that takes you to this
this notion that the asset inflation
rate is actually just the cost of
capital. Okay? And okay, bingo.
Your cost of capital if you're the CEO
of a publicly traded company in a good
year in a normal year is 6% or 7%.
You better actually generate more than
7% with it or you got to give it back to
the shareholders. I mean down to the
razor thin margin. Now, now there's a
certain elegance to that. Um, why didn't
we actually do that? Well, it used to be
we're thinking I I've got a bunch of
capital. We were buying our stock back
at a at a measured rate, you know, and
uh we were very thinly traded. So if I
bought 20% of the stock back in the
windows without moving the market, it
takes me like seven years, you know,
takes me some number of years to buy it
all back, you know, it's very
frustrating. And if I like if I and I
can't go any faster than that, you know,
without doing a tender offer or the
like. So we're we're doing a bit of that
and then along comes the pandemic and
everybody gets kicked into high gear and
the opera the P&L gets kicked into high
gear and we're transforming and then
this macroeconomic change takes place
and the cost of capital now r is not 6%
anymore. the cost of capital just
spiked. And so the fascinating thing
here is if you're a corporate treasurer,
your cost of capital was 6%. This year,
your cost of capital is 25%.
And then all the assets that you could
buy go through the roof. And now this is
a problem, right? Do I go buy a company?
90% likely I burn the business. I
destroy the if I buy a bad acquisition,
then I probably make a mistake. That's a
that's a a peril. Do I go by um the S&P
500 after it spiked up today? The most
crowded trade, right? They're saying the
most crowded trade is is Well, also the
f the future expected returns are
basically negative by most people's
assessment for the next 10 years. So,
you're basically locking into a loss. It
feel it could very well be a loss decade
uh for for equities. So, but
I I watched television for the past like
four months and it just it's amazing to
me that that um the equity commentators
managed to find something positive to
say every single day, you know, every
single day. It's amazing. So, yeah, that
doesn't doesn't really work for me. So,
my cost capital spikes. I get I get
sensitized to the issue. We start
thinking we got to do something. Okay.
So now you put yourself in my situation.
You have 500 million in cash.
Cost of capital went through the roof
and and every central banker wants to
print more money.
And every intelligent investor is
telling you that cash is trash. What
would you do if you're me? I I came to
the same conclusion you did. I mean,
it's basically is you need to look for
an asset that's going to protect you in
a number of scenarios that has a high
expected upside that beats the cost of
capital. And so that's the only thing I
can think of. And so it to me it came
down to golden golden Bitcoin. So So we
tick through these. So what what can I
buy? Uh I'm not going to buy an
individual equity. I'm not going to buy
another company. Can I buy a portfolio
of commercial real estate? Oops. Half
commercial real estate's impaired. The
other, you know, the other half is over
inflated. And who's going to sell me
$500 million worth of commercial real
estate at a fair price that's not
impaired this year? Right? That's not
going to work. So now I'm down to uh can
I buy an index of stocks? Well, anything
you want to buy companywise that's cheap
is basically insolvent and comes with a
bunch of debts. Anything that doesn't
come with a bunch of debts is crazy,
ludicrously expensive. Okay, you're
right. I get it. And and so mark that
off the list. So So now I I What have I
got? Precious metals and Bitcoin. So I
look at two things that I completely
dismissed was oblivious to my entire
life, Ral. Right. Like, and so all of a
sudden, you get hit in the head with a
2x4
and you cross off your list. Every door
is shut to you, but these two other
random doors. And so you got to open up
the doors and start to look. And so now
I go down the rabbit hole and I start
studying and you know you can learn
anything on the internet. So all of a
sudden you get discovered by me, Pomp
gets discovered by me. I ha I have this
friend Eric Weiss who's who uh runs a
crypto hedge fund and a couple years ago
he told me about Bitcoin. I thought,
well that's crazy.
I kind of dismissed it out of hand like
like well I mean couldn't someone else
create a Bitcoin cry cryptocurrency and
then all the money will drain away and
maybe you know h how do you know it's
going to work and so I just don't even
look at it don't even think about it you
know and um when all the other doors
shut this one opens and now I now I have
a problem right if someone took $500
million out of your bank put it in your
backyard opened the back gate and then
every month someone came in and they
burned 2% of your money.
You know, it's like you go from thinking
your money is safe to having extreme
anxiety. Extreme. So now I got a problem
to solve. I I I first had to solve the
P&L problem. Now we switch to the
balance sheet and um so what do we do?
Well, take this off. First I go and I
stud, you know, I study the stuff and I
get to introduce the stock to flow,
right? and all all of a sudden I'm
looking at plan B and I'm what is stock
toflow? Okay, 2% you know 2% of the gold
supply gets inflated every year and then
I start doing the math and then I start
thinking about it. I'm thinking, well,
2% minus, you know, whatever it's it's
better. And then I start looking at
crypto and I look at Bitcoin and then I
realize this is what I and then I start
with all the concerns about Bitcoin,
right? What if it gets forked, right? I
mean, you know, there's nothing more
anxietyinducing than when someone puts
eight pages in front of you of what
happens to your crypto if it gets a hard
fork or a soft fork and you're studying
it. So, I started studying it. But, but
then I realized, here's what I realized
in short order. Bitcoin's a $200 billion
asset. Bitcoin is a hive of cybernetic
hornets doing the bidding of mother
nature protected by by a a wall of
encrypted energy.
Right? That's what I saw once I started
to dig it. It's a It's a living
cybernetic harm hive creature with a
wall of encrypted energy and and Lord
help the guy that tries to shove his
hand into that hornets's nest and steal
from it. Right. It's and I thought
that's interesting. And then I studied
Ethereum.
That's the number two. And then I
realized Ethereum is is something
totally different a world computer. and
they're still chasing after
functionality,
you know, all sorts of functionality and
like more power to them. Decentralized
finance, it's interesting. It's
experimental there. It might be
something that Micro Strategies build
something on in the future for Ethereum.
Yeah. I mean, I guess I guess what I'd
say is is um I saw all that stuff, but
it's there's still a question of of will
it work? has to be proven and there are
centralized competitors to it and
they're not done with the functional
architecture. I mean if you understand
proof of work then when the founder says
well we think we're going to switch it
to proof of stake because we don't think
proof of work will work for us then you
know you realize there's there's a
fundamental dogmatic set of assumptions
and there's an existential debate going
on there. Sure. You know, fast forward
to the conclusion which is if you look
at all the proofof work crypto networks,
Bitcoin is 92% of them all. The next
competitor is 2%. The next competitor is
one and a half percent. The next
competitor is less than 1%. It's the
market screaming to you that there's a
winner, right? So, when everybody says,
well, you know, there might be another
one. No, there wouldn't be, well, this
might be the MySpace. Well, no. If you
knew anything about the history of
MySpace, you would know that MySpace
flamed out at a billion dollars.
You know, it it flamed out when it was
less than 1% of what Bitcoin was. You
know, Bitcoin was never MySpace. You
know, Bitcoin is the Facebook of of
closed digital monetary networks. and
it's already crushed everything and it's
eating it's software eating the world,
right? Software eating money and it's
only going to get more powerful. So now
we're back to my issue. I know I got to
buy hard assets.
It's a question of silver, gold,
Bitcoin. And now I start thinking about
it,
you know, and here's what I'm thinking,
Ral. It's like I think everybody's too
short term on this stuff. You want to
really understand it. Step back from the
noise. Look at the big picture.
How does this feel across time and
space?
I'm going to take $100 million and I'm
going to give it to my successor in a
hundred years.
Okay? You want to send something to your
grandchildren or your
great-grandchildren. If you want to
endow anything of value, a park, a
company, an institution, a foundation, a
family, a whatever, whatever, a
religion, you a a political system, I
don't care what it is. If you believe in
it and you want it to be here 100 years
from now, you got some money. How are
you going to convey the hundred million
dollars across a hundred years without
losing it? Would you invest it in Apple
stock? Apple might not be around. Would
you invest it in dollars? Traditionally,
Traditionally, real estate's been that
answer, but even that's risky. Okay. So,
you want to buy a hundred million
dollars of real estate in California?
Yeah. No. Okay. Do you know what the
property tax rate is in Florida? That's
true. I forget about US property taxes.
Okay. I know. It's 2%. If you take a
$100 million and you buy Florida real
estate, it's $2 million a year. And by
the way, it gets appraised up every
year. which means that over 30 years you
lose it all. The property tax rate on
anything in the real world is going to
drain it from you. You can't buy real
estate. If you look at all assets you
can buy the qu you buy a stock, you buy
an equity, you've got a property tax,
you've got an income tax, you've got uh
you've got employee payroll taxes,
you've got regulation, you've got
customs, you've got trade, you've got
tariff. Now, I'm going to come back to
you with a question. How are you going
to convey your family's wealth across
the generations for 100 years? And if
you don't I'll just stop right there.
How are you going to do it? You tell me.
Well, the only thing is and gold is not
easy because where do you store it and
how do you pass that along? Okay, so let
me stop you there and tell me what the
I'm going to tell you what the problem
is with gold. I thought about it. Take
your $100 million and put it in gold in
a vault.
gold miners are going to print two
million 2% more every year. Okay? If if
gold miners produced if you owned the
entire supply of gold in the world and
if it was pure right for London delivery
gold bars and it isn't right but if it
was and if you were sure you owned it
all if gold miners create 2% more every
year the rule of 70 says every 35 years
the gold supply doubles which means that
you would own half the gold supply in 35
years a quarter of the gold supply in in
uh another 35 years and in a hundred
years, you're going to own about 15%
maybe even 12% of the gold supply. So
here you'll like this. So I was thinking
through something similar in a different
way. I just wanted to look at the Fed
balance sheet growth over the last
whatever period I wanted to choose and I
looked at every asset against it. The
Fed balance sheet outperformed
everything. Outperformed gold by 50%. So
gold's done a bloody lousy job. It's
better than many things. There's only
one asset only one asset that did it and
it killed it was Bitcoin. Okay? And by
the way, and I know why now, and and
I'll tell you why I think it is in a
second. Um, I thought I was going to buy
gold and a very smart guy that that that
works for me, my consolidary, he said,
he said, "Mike, I remember, you know,
gold back in the 70s and the 80s is 600
$600 and then it traded down and and
it's gone nowhere for a decade." And I
can I'm like, everybody says gold's the
ultimate hard money. What's the problem?
What am I missing in this picture? And
then here's what I realized.
Gold's got an inflation rate at 2%.
Over time, that means a hund00 million
is going to be worth $12.5 million at
2%. You're going to lose 80 85% or 87%
of your wealth if it inflates at 2%. But
it's worse than that because gold's not
pure. Half the gold supplies floating
around, right? It's it's not all stamped
good delivery bars in London. Yeah,
that's the second problem. The third
problem is if gold price goes up, every
minor is your enemy. They're going to
print more. They're going to mine more
gold. They're going to ship more gold.
They're going to capital invest in more
gold. This is the dilemma of every
commodity business. And I used to work
for commodities at DuPont. The dilemma
is if the price of the commodity or
let's go back to oil fracking.
We fought wars over oil.
We went and fought wars over oil to
protect our oil. What happened when the
price of oil went to $100 a barrel?
Fracking. We invented a new technology
to And by the way, what happened? The US
produced so much oil, it became a world
crisis. We doubled. We produced 5
million barrels of oil a day and now we
produce 10 million barrels of oil a day
and then 11 and 12. And everybody was
like, "Hold it. You're gonna produce too
much oil." Okay? And then you realize
OPEC, the secret to making money in oil
is a cartel.
John D. Rockefeller understood it. A
cartel. Anything that humans can produce
with with their brains and with capital
is going to get overproduced. And that's
this. And that's the problem with uh
with using um um a commodity as a money
because ultimately if if gold is
successful then intelligent people are
going to produce more gold and you're
going to double triple quadruple the
supply of it. Anything with a
supernormal return gets arbited away. So
those returns are only available for a
period of time. Everybody gets into the
game. The margins collapse. I mean it's
everywhere. I mean that that's
capitalism. And and so people that think
they're buying hard gold, the problem by
the way, by the way, I we could have
another cast, I could talk with you for
two hours about about um the technical
problems with gold, you know, and but I
don't want to get derailed by that. Um I
want to I want to basically start with a
simple premise.
If I look at Bitcoin,
there's a lot of people in the Bitcoin
community that talk about stock to flow
and how it's going down and and I
appreciate it and I and I think it's a
good contribution, but I have a
different take on that as a public
company CEO, which is this. Every time I
print my share count, there's only one
number that matters. I print fully
diluted share count. No one ever asked
me, "Well, how many shares do you have
this minute?" Nobody ever asked me, "How
many shares are going to vest with
employees next month or next year?" They
just ask me one question. What's your
fully diluted share count? We take your
earnings, we divide by that, we're done.
Take your revenues, divide by that,
we're done. The fully diluted Bitcoin
count is 21 million. Done. The fact that
it's going to trickle out or what? I
don't care. Fully diluted Bitcoin count
21 million. Instead of saying it's the
stock to flow is higher. Now stock to
flow is exponentially going to infinity.
Stock to flow is infinite which means
it's infinitely hard because a rational
actor and I consider myself a rational
actor. I didn't buy Bitcoin expecting I
was buying you know this much Bitcoin
divided by 18,500,000.
I bought the Bitcoin thinking I was
buying that share of 21 million. And I
knew that and I and so now we're back
this very a simple thing. You take your
$100 million and you hold it for a year
in fiat currency, you're going to have
1% or half a percent of it left. You're
going to lose 99% of your money in a
hundred years. Boy, I know that to be
the case. I have a house in Florida, a
nice house in Florida. It would cost you
$15 million to buy that house. 20
million today. I have the sale deed for
that house in 1930. You know what the
number is on it? A h 100,000.
A $100,000 in 1930. Count the number of
years between 1930
and the year 2020 and figure out what
the uh depreciation rate was on fiat
currency in the US dollar. I it's a it's
you're going to lose 99% of your money
if you put it in cash. Okay, so we all
agree on that. Okay, this is the thing
that people don't say. You're going to
lose for sure 85% of your money if you
put it in gold. You're g for sure. By
the way, and that you're you're assuming
that nobody invents a better chemistry
for gold. We don't find gold anywhere
else. Nobody invests any more money in
gold mining. Nobody gets any smarter and
the gold price doesn't go up too much.
And if all those things are true and
people still use gold, you're going to
lose 85% of your money. But if human
ingenuity kicks in, gold is a commodity.
You're going to lose 90% of your money
in gold. Now, if you put your money in
Bitcoin, you're keeping it all. You're
not losing anything once from if you
don't believe in fully diluted Bitcoin
count, you have a 15% loss in a 100
years. But if you do believe in it,
there's no loss. Now, let me give you
another analogy.
You want to cross the Atlantic.
If you cross the Atlantic in a vessel
made of fiat currency, it's like
stitching together a bunch of inflatable
rafts. You're c by the way, you're
crossing the Atlantic in a in an
inflatable boat with a leak in it.
Or you want to cross the Atlantic in a
in a gold vessel, you're cross the
Atlantic in a wooden ship. Oh, it's sort
of good, but it's rotting. You know,
it's a wooden ship. It's better than
inflatable. It doesn't have a leak in
it, but it's wood and it's going to
decay. It's decaying 2 3% a year.
You're crossing the Atlantic in Bitcoin.
It's a steel hole freighter. The thing
about steel, you know, like I say to the
guys that say, "Well, why do I want a
steel boat?" They go, "Well, because
steel is indestructible and the welds
are harder than the original steel." If
you put a hole in steel and you weld it,
the weld is stronger than the original
material. Steel will last as long as you
maintain it will last forever. Okay? So,
rubber boat, wooden boat, steel vessel.
And now here's an epiphany, right? I
mean, if that's not enough, right? I
mean, like there's no comparison between
losing 80 to 90% of your money versus
not losing any of your money. There's no
comparison. But here's another epiphany.
I'm an aeronautical engineer from MIT. I
studied I studied spaceship design. I
studied aircraft design. I studied
building design.
You know, the entire science of civil
engineering requires one element. Do you
know what the element is?
Steel. Think about it for a second. I
build a building with with wood. You can
build a two-story building. You ever see
a five-story wooden building?
I built, you know, that's that's fiat. I
build a building of stone,
you know, and masonry. Look at all of
Europe. All of beautiful Europe. Every
building in Europe, five stories, six
stories. That's as far as you go, you
know, with brick.
What happens when I invent steel?
I build a 50story building. You think
steel is twice as good as bricks?
Yeah. You you could build a hundredstory
building, right? Steel steel is is
elemental to or instrumental to New York
City. There is no New York City without
steel. You there is no skyscraper.
There's no science of civil engineering
until you invent steel. You could say
iron maybe if you want. But in but
without the element without the element
of steel, there's no civil engineering.
Now flip to airspace. You know,
aerospace. You ever see a plane made of
steel?
No, they don't fly. Steel is the perfect
element except for the fact it's too
heavy to fly. That's why we use
aluminum. No aluminum,
no airplanes, no industry, nothing. Take
away aluminum, the entire aviation
industry goes to zero. Right? Andrew
Melon made his money on aluminum. Andrew
Carnegie made his money on steel. Right?
These are fundamental things. These were
technologists. The entire industry is
based on it. Now the gold standard good
idea in the 19th century, right? The
best idea you could have in the 19th
century.
But I mean just like wooden ships.
Pretty good idea to have wooden ships if
you're the British Empire. if that's the
best you can have, you know. Now, along
comes Bitcoin, cryptocurrency,
it's it's when I say it's harder than
gold. I mean it's not just 10 times
harder because it goes it goes a hundred
years without losing any of its value. I
say it's harder because it's an organic
nest of cybernetic hornets
feeding off of encrypted energy. It's a
living thing, which means that the
miners are going to keep upgrading their
equipment. The developers going to keep
upgrading their development. The nodes
are going to change. Everybody, the
ecosystem is going to change. And
they're changing in this
terrifying Darwinian capitalistic
libertarian aggressive winner take all
hold no bars you know no you know no one
company country companies holding like
the like I've been CEO
I thought I was right I was wrong you
could be the most brilliant CEO in the
world you know anything that's
controlled by a CEO is crippled.
Controlled by a state is crippled.
Controlled by a country, it's crippled.
This entire thing is its own ecosystem.
You know, gold is not going to get a
million times smarter in the next 10
years. It's not thinking at all. It's a
lump of metal lying there, right? What's
you know, Nicholas Taleb wrote
anti-fragile. I think Taleb is
brilliant. You know, I love all of his
books. Read every one of them twice.
Right. Uh, Bitcoin is an anti-fragile
evolving
evolving thing.
It's the hard its hardest currency
because it's getting continually
exponentially harder. It's getting
harder, but it's also smarter,
stronger, and faster than gold, right?
It's smarter because these com I I can
create a computer program. I can put on
a machine behind that bar and I can have
it make a million trades with your
crypto every night while you're sleeping
and move it around, right? But I can't
do it with gold. If I want to move a
$100 million of gold, I got to put it on
a jet, fly it around the world. It's
$250,000 to physically deliver $100
million worth of gold. I can physically
deliver $100 million worth of Bitcoin in
five bucks, right? five dollars and in
30 minutes, you know, depending upon how
riskaverse you are. But if I if I want
to move it, I can put a piece of
software on it. By the way, Ral, you
know, when I move a hundred million
dollars into a crypto exchange to buy
crypto, I gotta talk to like three
bankers on the phone and they're asking
me they're asking me for my birthday,
Ralph. You can go on Google and you can
Google Michael Sailor and do you know
what the I you don't even have to click.
Do you know what Google puts underneath
the Google for my birthday my birthday
you know? So, the banking system is
running about a million times slower and
less secure to move this stuff around.
Um, when I put it in when I put this
this elemental energy into Bitcoin,
it's smart because it's getting smart as
fast as the smartest crypto bank can
program something intelligent. And I am
in awe of how of how many these uh these
things are going on so fast. Defi and
CFI, right? It's not clear to me whether
you're going to use DeFi or CFI. Doesn't
matter. Whatever is going to work is
going to work. It's all happening. Yeah.
It's faster because it's dematerialized
gold. I look at all my employees and I
say, "We're in the virtual wave, guys.
You can now move at the speed of light
and bend time and space. What are you
going to do with it?" Right? If if I can
actually take your hundred million
dollars worth of gold, dematerialize it,
chop it into 10 million pieces, and move
it around the world a hundred times a
second, something new is going to
happen. And then it's and it's stronger.
It's stronger because you can liquidate
a hund00 million worth of Bitcoin on a
Saturday afternoon in a foreign country,
in a foreign currency.
And you know, you can do this and maybe
you might take a 3% haircut. You know,
you might like, holy crap, it's
volatile. It moved down 300 bucks. Well,
3% haircut to liquidate $100 million of
gold on a Saturday afternoon. Try doing
that in in Istanbul. Like try
liquidating a hund00 million sitting in
a vault in New York City in Tokyo on an
afternoon on a weekend. Right? So, the
issue is gold's going to be audited once
every, by the way, I apologize for
digressing, but you can't make this
stuff up. It's really hilarious. When I
borrow $100 million from a conventional
bank,
you know how they verify my collateral,
they ask me to have my accountant
prepare a financial statement as of the
end of last fiscal year. And so I
actually deliver a statement that has
all of my assets on it. And if I'm
borrowing money on uh June 30th, I'm
giving you a January 1 financial
statement. And and
by and I'm asserting that I have not
double pledged the collateral or
committed bank fraud and my accountant
is asserting it. And that's a pretty
serious thing, but you I'm saying it
tongue and cheek, right? Yeah. It's
ridiculous. Why? Why do people care
about publicly traded companies? Well,
you know, public, you know, a public
company has more credibility than a
private company and has a lot more
credibility than a private individual.
And here's one reason why. I and my CFO
sign
Oxley statements, financial reports, and
every quarter I sign my financial
report. If I lie to you, Ralph, it's a
crime, right? I go to jail, right? If a
public company officer mis uh
misrepresents the state of the balance
sheet, the state of the business, like
you ask me like how's the future of the
business, I'm I'm going to equivocate. I
think we're, you know, the future of the
business will be the future of the
business, and we're just really excited
about working on the future of the
business. It's because it's a crime for
me to mislead. Okay. So, so the way that
we actually certify collateral is is via
uh regulations and criminal statutes.
And that's why the most credible
entities in the world are American
publicly traded companies, right?
Because everybody knows that if you
trade on the NASDAQ or the New York
Stock Exchange and you're a CEO or a CFO
of an America, you know, I if I heard a
guy that worked for a guy that worked
for a guy that worked for a guy that
worked for me in a foreign country was
actually doing something sloppy, I'm
thinking, well, foreign corrupt
practices act makes me criminally liable
for that. And that person gets his head
chopped off. Okay. So, so that's the way
that you actually pledge collateral
normally. With Bitcoin, we've totally
turned on his head. Anybody can inspect
the fact that I own the Bitcoin in one
second. Yeah. And and uh every 10
minutes you could take a complete audit
of everything. I mean, I wrote that
article about it being the world's most
pristine collateral. I mean, it's
perfect for the struct the foundation
stone of everything. As you were talking
about, you know, it's the steel of an
entire new financial system. is this I I
think what you've said is brilliant but
I don't think it's understood when you
say it's the world's best collateral the
world is operating on like gold is
collateral gets audited every seven
years or every three years it might be
there it's impossible to move it's
impossible because of rehypothecation
and the reuse of assets right it's not
clear Bitcoin ownership is guaranteed
so it's so pristine the only thing we
haven't got is a yield curve So your
third, yes, you've got it implicitly in
the fact that it's got a limited supply,
but eventually there will be a market
for you to lend out your your Bitcoin
and it's going to trade at a premium to
bonds, US bonds, because it's like you
lending out a piece of art. Well, [ __ ]
it. If somebody's going to borrow a
piece of art, they're going to pay you
for it. I I totally agree and I think
the yield curve is coming and when I
look at the forward contracts, it's it's
very fascinating to me. But summary of
my entire meandering analysis is
Bitcoin,
if it's not a hundred times better than
gold, it's a million times better than
gold. And there's nothing close to it.
And and most people, they're focused
upon stock toflow is better. And what
they haven't they haven't factored in is
that the smarter, faster, stronger makes
it a million times better. And it's
steel to masonry for the firmament of
the 21st century financial eos. Love
that analogy. So here's another question
for you. So you make the brave decision
to do this.
It doesn't seem brave to you because it
sounds it feels like the most
intelligent rational decision you can
make, right? But somebody else, oh my
god, what's he doing? So you go to your
CFO and go, okay, I've got Bitcoin.
Currently, it's marked as an intangible.
We can't we don't get any appreciation
of the value of it and gap accounting
doesn't work. How the hell did you get
through that all that [ __ ] to put it on
the balance sheet and yeah so not to be
marked where you bought it all all time.
So now we shift to the subject of how do
you build consensus in a in an
institution or a publicly traded
company. Yeah. because yeah it's it's
one thing uh for me to believe it but
there's a lot of other fiduciaries and
they have to understand it and they have
to assess all the risk so what happened
next is is um I started cheerfully
assigning homework to all the officers
and all the directors of the company
right you know and you can imagine some
of your podcast got linked to them a lot
of uh Pomp's podcast got sent to him.
Um, Eric Vorhees debate, famous epic
debate with Peter Schiff over the future
of of fiat versus Bitcoin as the world's
best currency got sent to them. Bitcoin
standard. Uh, the Bitcoin stand. Lynn
Alden's paper on three reasons I'm now
bullish on Bitcoin got sent to them,
right? Um, uh, Andreas Antonopoulos's,
you know, what is Bitcoin got sent to
them. You know, lots of So, lots of
compulsory YouTube watching, guys. I'm
going to need you to watch these things
on YouTube. Then I'm going to need you
to read this. Then lots of individual
meetings, meet everybody. I'm going to
meet, you know, I'm lucky. I've got a
very intelligent board. I've got a very
engaged board. I've got a very a very
int, you know, I met with I met with my
general counsel and uh and I and I was
worried, you know, like general counsel
is going to tell you a million reasons
you can't do something. I said, "Well, I
you know, I think we should be thinking
about Bitcoin and I, you know, and this
and this and this and this and this and
this, you know, and I waited for him to
tell me no way in heck can we ever do
this ever." And he goes, "Yeah, that's a
very interesting thesis. Um, you know, I
bought Bitcoin two years ago.
Love it. You know, like I was like, I
got but but you know, so it turns out
that uh, you know, I talked with my with
my board and it turns out that half of
them had already invested in Bitcoin
personally. So that we went through this
round of study it, think about it,
evaluate all the options, meet as a
group, break. A after that, you know,
the CFO went off and he like he met with
our auditors and our our outside
auditors and and more auditors and the
NRGC met with attorneys and more
attorneys and more attorneys and our
outside attorney and uh then we started
sifting through all the, you know, all
of the regulatory filings of everybody
went, you know, I went down the rabbit
hole, they went down the rabbit hole
and, you know, and the board went down a
rabbit hole. we all came together and
and I'm just I'm really proud of the
team. But but at the same time, I'm I I
think uh I think it's it's important to
say that rational people if they're put
if this is put on the table and if
they're given enough time and the right
resources, they all unanimously
unanimously come to the same conclusion
that I come to. Right? No dispute, no
disscent. Everybody's gota got to be
part of the process. And you and you got
to give everybody time to absorb it. And
you got to do your due job. How do you
get the audit? How do you get the
auditors across the line? So you read
internal consensus. Fine. Okay. Now you
got to have the bloody auditors agree
that you can do this.
Okay. Well, the auditors uh give you the
feedback on how you're going to account
for it. Yeah. and that's their position
and um they're good at telling you how
to do that, right? And so we take their
advice and then at some point we talked
to lots of different auditors and I I I
do think that um that we're um we're
leading the way here like uh clearly in
fact it's news that we did this. It'll
be news when we uh when we put out our
10 Q's and if you want to see exactly
how it gets accounted for, people be
looking at the 10 Q's to figure out what
does that do the balance sheet and the
P&L and that's right. But let me but let
me make one point R which is you can run
your business in order to in order to
make your GAP accounting beautiful.
If you did that you would never issue a
stock option. And if you look at every
successful tech company, they they have
uh stock option expenses and and and
every screaming success, you know,
Facebook comes public and there's huge
amounts of stock options that they've
issued and they take non-cash charges
for them. So the result is most public
companies have pro-forma results and
they have after adjustments.
There are mega adjustments based on
currency fluctuations and all sorts of
non-cash intangible things and the
investment community looks at those and
generally they focus more on the as
adjusted you know proformas as long as
you explain what it is then people don't
care because gap because gap doesn't
necessarily keep up with the reality of
the business.
Like for example, if I told you, you
know, would you buy a company that's
going to go up in value by a factor of
10 if it had a if it printed a gap loss
or would you not? And also the other
thing is is you told me before that the
investors valued you cash at zero. So
what the hell you got to lose? If you
say well it's a nonzero asset now and
whether it's whether or whether it's not
including your gap accounting it's like
well you wrote it off to zero anyway. So
now you can either value it as a option
or not. Yeah. Let's say if we buy
Bitcoin and it gets valued as an
intangible and then we're forced to
write it down to down based upon the
volatility. You know, it could happen.
We could buy we could buy a bunch of
Bitcoin. It could be written down by
50%. Then you have you have a a gap
right down and intangibly it carries an
intangible on your balance sheet. On the
other hand, if the value of Bitcoin
doubles, if you have a billion dollars
of Bitcoin, right, and the gap the gap
accounting says you're only showing 200
million, the investors are going to look
at that. They're rational. Yeah. I mean,
by the way, they're the investors are
rational and they normally will they
will understand that you have a billion
dollars worth of something even though
GAP accounting doesn't want let you uh
market as a billion dollars. But if the
market is irrational over the long term,
you sell some of the Bitcoin, buy all
your stock back, right? In fact, in the
extreme, if you have if you have 10
billion if your net asset value is worth
more than the value of the company
outstanding, you buy your shares, you
buy the company. At the end of the day,
if the Bitcoin is worth 10 billion and
then and then the accounting says it's
worth zero and if the investors insist
upon looking at the zero accounting and
they value you at nothing, you buy you
buy every single share of the stock back
and you got a private company with nine
billion dollars worth of Bitcoin in it.
Right? But there's a point to what I'm
saying, which is you can't run a
business in order to make to make the
GAP accounting optically look perfect.
If you did that, you wouldn't be in any
business that that outstrips the rate of
of accountants that have a 30-year lag.
Yeah. And also, just the point being is
is you have a reputation. The firm's
been existence for a long time. As long
as you can explain to people what you're
doing, nobody cares. They either like it
or they don't. That's what shareholding
is. And that's okay. I think I think we
have an obligation to be as clear and
articulate and respectful to our
shareholders as we possibly can be. And
if you look at what we've done over the
past three months, we have tried to be
extraordinarily
transparent and methodic. You know,
first we say we think we've got a, you
know, a treasury issue and we we need to
either buy our shares back or invest our
shares or sorry, we need to buy our
shares back or invest our treasury. Then
we said, "We've done the analysis and
and we're going to do a $250 million
tender and we're going to do $250
million investment or done it in
Bitcoin." Then we let the investors
decide what they want to do. That's
their choice, right? And then the
investors decide to tender some of their
shares and we buy some of those shares
and we have some extra cash. Then we
take the extra cash and then we tell you
know we tell the market it looks like we
have some extra cash by the way our
treasury policy is to invest in Bitcoin
then we invest in Bitcoin right and uh
and if anybody if anybody's holding the
stock right it's just very important for
them that they understand what's going
on and I I can't tell you how to think
about this right but by the way it's
like you know you would hear rumors
like, "Oh, I don't think investor will
like it." So, we went we met with all
the investors, you know, it's like 80%
of investors go, "Yeah, that's a
probably that's kind of a good idea, you
know, that's kind of interesting,
right?" Right? And and uh so, and then
they're like they go to me, well, this
one investor, he was kind of concerned
about it and he had a problem with it.
You know, I met with him, he goes,
"Well, why don't you just like uh buy
back all the stock?" I said um I said
well you know that the issue is we would
decapize the company if we buy back all
the stock we'll have no treasury assets
and if we have no treasury assets no
capital then that puts our customers at
risk and so you know I have to be able
to my customers are governments banks
big organizations I need to be able to
represent to them that for the next 30
years they can count on me so I can't
like drain the entire assets the
company, you know, even though, you
know, and and that's the problem with
just buying with draining a treasury. I
have to have a a treasury balance. And
so then I proceeded to explain the
Bitcoin thesis to him. He cuts me off
halfway through and he goes, "Oh, yeah,
I get it. I own Bitcoin."
Okay. So, so the point is this is an
example somewhere everybody's really
afraid. Everybody says, "Oh, that's a
really ballsy, risky, you know, they're
all long themselves.
along Bitcoin. It's the same in the
hedge fund world. Paul Tudtor Jones
goes, you know, you're the Paul Tudtor
Jones of the of the corporate world.
Paul was the first guy to stand up and
go, well, I've bought Bitcoin in my
fund. Well, guess what? Every bloody
fund manager I know owns some Bitcoin
already. And you know, not to beat up on
Paul Tutor Jones if he's listening, but
Paul, like if you believe in it, buying
1%,
but 1% is like I go to Vegas and I want
to I'm the rich guy that goes to Vegas
with my friends and I want to convince
them I'm cool. And I go, "Yeah, I really
get gambling. I really believe in
gambling." So I take out $100,000. I put
on a table. I pay blackjack for a few
hours and I impress my my friends that
I'm really cool. That's that's one view.
On the other hand,
if you're really a baller, you're Howard
Hughes. He went to Vegas.
Howard Hughes bought Vegas. Right. If
you really believe in gambling, if you
get gambling, you don't gamble $100,000
or 1% of your wealth in Vegas. Yeah, but
you buy the casino. Yeah, but Paul
doesn't care. He's rich enough. So for
him, and again, whatever he says and
does are two different things. I know
him very well from the past. And Paul
can move his positions on a dime. We've
seen him be, you know, three or four
times levered. You know, the guy knows
what he's doing. So even if he says 1%,
that was that snapshot of that afternoon
that he finished that note. It could be
anything. Okay. And you know, and I and
I notice like the hedge fund guys, they
either say the opposite of what they're
doing or they say or they talk their
book. And it's amusing to do that, but I
mean to to state what I what I think is
pretty obvious. Once you understand
Bitcoin,
right, you're you you have anxiety about
being short. Once you understand it,
completely terrified of being not having
enough. And if that's the case, then if
you're running10 billion dollars of
money,
you go take one or two billion dollars
of it or three or you just buy it all.
Like I I mean, don't you sit around? I
sit around. I'm think I'm trading this
Bitcoin, Ral, and and to buy this much,
you can't buy it in a minute or an hour.
You can't even buy it in a day. I'm when
I'm in the market, I'm buying Bitcoin
four days in a row every minute. Are you
doing it yourself? You haven't given it
to anybody else. I gota I I control it
all. But yeah, I I Yeah, take if it's
worth doing, do it yourself. So, here's
Look, I want to ask you two questions.
Yeah, questions. The practicalities,
right? So, there is the the terrifying
moment when you transfer your Bitcoin
from the exchange
to your hard wallet and you're like,
"Fuck, I hope I put in the right
numbers." Because there is nobody I can
call up at the bank say, "Oh, I made a
mistake in the transfer." Did you not
get the terror of doing that? And how do
you store it? Okay. Well, so a couple of
points I'll make. one one point I can't
give you too much details about about
how we do it and how we handle our
crypto just for security reasons
obviously right I mean in private off
the record we talk about it but in
public I can't um generally our approach
is is to work with institutional grade
crypto exchanges and institutional grade
crypto custodians
and and then like handling nitroglycerin
handle it very carefully Right. I handle
my crypto very carefully. And that means
that before I, you know, we're
whitelisting everything every which way
and I'm moving 0.01 Bitcoin before I
move anything material, right? And you
know, like you know, the first time it
took me like 60 minutes or 90 minutes to
get a confirm, man. I was like, you
know, I'm working on it. But let me make
the next point, which is if you wanna if
you want to trade this stuff, you need a
great team of of like over-the-counter
uh brokers you work with, and they have
to have great technology because you're
going to buy this thing in 89,000
small bites of 0.2 Bitcoin each. If I'm
in the market, you don't know I'm in the
market, right? Like I I get a a laugh
when I watch people come in and hammer
the price up by a hundred bucks and and
people are thinking, "Is that some
whale?
Is that Well, if you wanted to buy a
hund00 million of it, there's no way
you're chasing it up a hundred bucks.
So, I'm waiting for someone to panic at
which point I'm going to buy $10 million
in one minute why they think they're
getting the better of me. Right? That's
the way you're going to do that. And
then my last point is while I'm sitting
there for all those days and I'm trading
this stuff and I'm like day and night,
right? day and night trading it.
Everybody thinks, "Well, Bitcoin's too
volatile." When people like me or these
other institutions get into it, we've
got computer programs that are trying to
buy it every minute of the day, day and
night, and pretty soon there'll be one
set of computer programs talking another
set of computer programs. There's no
people involved,
right? There's no people involved. And
the volatility is collapsing, right?
It's already collapsing. Anybody that's
watched this stuff over the past three
months, you would see the volatility is
coming in. The other day I'm watching
it. Bitcoin's less volatile than Apple.
It's definitely less volatile than it's
less volatile than Amazon, less volatile
than all the big tech companies. That's
a story. My last point, it's like,
who are these people that are selling it
to me? Like, I can't believe someone is
willing to sell it to me. But I'm I'm
thanking my lucky stars. I'm like, hit
me again. Hit me again. Hit me again.
Right. And I see these guys on crypto
Twitter and they're like, "Yeah,
Sailor's gonna buy it, then he's gonna
dump it or he's gonna buy it. He's gonna
like buy another company with it." I'm
like, "He's going to buy it until he
gets like this profit. He's going to do
whatever." I'm like, they don't really
There's a lot of traders in the market.
They don't understand the mindset of
longs. Like I'm buying it for the dude
that's going to work for the dude that's
going to get hired by the guy that takes
over my job in a hundred years.
I'm not selling it. Right. When it when
it goes up by a factor of a hundred, I
might be borrowing a little a little to
go buy something that I want, but this
is what am I going to buy with it,
right? That's better than what I'm
buying, right? every other treasury
asset. And I count $250 trillion worth
of stuff. This is not about gold, right?
Gold, fixed income, sovereign debt, cash
equivalents, every other treasury asset.
It's got a negative real yield.
What am I going to buy with it? No,
there's no other asset to buy with it.
And that's why I got into the
irresponsibly long thing. In the end, I
just looked at everything and said,
"Right, fine. You can trade around, do
stuff, but if there's anything you
actually want to put a real position in
for an extended period of time that
there is only one thing I can really
see. You know, I've got gold in a
storage vault and I'm like, I can't see
the point. And you're tipping me over
the edge of saying I can't see the
point. I like gold. I have no problem
with it. You know, I'm not going to hold
it for 100 years, so I don't really
care. But I kind of like Bitcoin's going
to swallow the world. If I told you gold
has a has a minus
it's got a minus 3% real yield. Yeah,
but you know I don't mind because I'm
likely only to hold gold three years.
I'm not you know Bitcoin's different for
me. Gold for three years through this
particular transition phase. So maybe it
goes up 100% and I lose 10% in in uh
negative real yield. That's okay to me
in that time horizon. I I think that um
and this is where time horizon matters
so much. If your time horizon is 12
months and you guys you you're a hedge
fund guy, you're like, you know, you're
like looking at like the volatility
curve wave, right? You guys are trading
gamma and stuff like that, which like I
can't even I got degrees from MIT and I
can't figure out gamma yet. So, I need a
speech on that. But you're living in the
world of like minutes to days to weeks
to months to years. Let's say when you
go out more than a decade.
If you go out more than a decade, all
this stuff, all the noise drops away.
Everything gets really clear. Totally
agree. Totally. And when you come in
less than five years, there's a lot of
different options you got to consider.
So the real question is what's your time
horizon here? Yeah, 100% agree. And you
know, and that's exactly what the
conclusion. But for me, why I'm so
interested now of all time, you know,
really intensely focused is across
almost every single time horizon, it now
looks superior. That won't always be the
case. There'll be a time when whether
it's technology, stocks, whatever it is,
will outperform Bitcoin. But when I look
at almost every time horizon, you know,
going from a month, that would be the
shortest I'd look at. A month out to a
hundred years, Bitcoin looks like it's
going to be everything for the time
being. Great. That's a home run
opportunity. So, Ral, that makes the
decision easy. Yeah, I need some gold.
And and that's why I think if you're
really a hedge fund person and you
really get Bitcoin and the decision's so
easy, are you really going to tell me
you've decided to take 1% and take a you
know and hedge and try it? Like if
anybody really gets Bitcoin, there's
nobody investing 1% of their portfolio
in it. No. No. Exactly. I I far and away
my biggest position by far and away and
almost, you know, a very significant
part of my liquid assets, you know,
outside my properties and shareholdings
and stuff, you know, in real vision or
whatever, you know, it's Bitcoin is the
bet. You know, I I said the other day, I
said, you know, for this this is not a
speculation,
nor is it a hedge.
This is a deliberate corporate strategy
to adopt the Bitcoin standard. That's
what we're doing, right? And and and I
think that lots of people want to
minimalize what's going on here or
they're afraid. They're in fear to
actually come out and say what they
believe. Mike, they don't understand
yet. People are It's like, as you know,
you suddenly get to that point where
it's like, "Oh, Christ, I get it now."
You kind of think you get it for a
while, then you question yourself, then
you sort of get it, then you realize you
know nothing and then you come to the
epiphany is not knowing anything about
it apart from one core set of things
that this is superior to anything else
around it and it could be an entire
ecosystem, a whole structure. That's all
you need to know. After that, it's like,
okay, I got hard money with upside.
Brilliant.
And now, so now we're sitting here
waiting to see how long it's going to
take for all the other rational actors
in the world to come to the same
conclusion. Exactly. Right. And I, you
know, that's that's the journey. You
know, we're launching this crypto
channel on Real Vision. It's part of the
same bet. I know where this is all
going. And I've been talking about this
in 2012.
And I knew that macro and crypto were
about to collide. And I knew it was
going to happen in the next recession or
I didn't I guessed it would. And here we
are. And then what's happened is you've
actually moved it on further by saying,
okay, it's not just about markets and
investments and everything else. We're
now talking about a new standard that
becomes
the new gold standard, i.e. corporations
around the world, Apple with their
balance sheet and everybody else should
think of this as a reserve asset, which
was my point that I've been talking
about is this is the world's most
pristine reserve asset. And that's what
you're doing. You bought a reserve asset
and put it on your balance sheet.
Brilliant. Imagine a CEO of a
construction company that said, "We
thought we'd start building buildings
with steel this year and every other
construction company saying, "Oh, what a
risky thing.
That's too expensive as well." And all
the other arguments that you would have
had, we've not tested it in earthquakes
or whatever it is. I think we've covered
a lot of ground and I think we'll
probably have another conversation down
the track because there's a load of
things. I love the philosophical things
that you're thinking about and just also
your you know how you've observed the
tech industry and everything else. So
I'm definitely going to get back in
touch with you again and we'll as your
thinking evolves and as other people's
thinking evolve it's it's just nice
because you're outside of the noise of a
lot of the financial market stuff and
you're looking at differently and it's
brilliant and just look bravo you that
as you said it's a logical conclusion
but most people haven't reached it yet
and you've done something really
inspiring for a lot of people. Well, I
like I would return the a compliment
though and point out that that I was
obsessing over everything that you
published before we made this decision.
And so, so the truth is you're more that
you and and the entire crypto community
that went out there especially on
YouTube and published everything.
They're the inspiration and and it's a
wonderful community and there's you can
learn a lot on YouTube. So, so if people
ever wonder, does anybody listen to the
stuff we say? The answer is yeah, I
listen. Everybody, every one of my board
members listened, right? So, so we
wouldn't be here, I wouldn't be here
talking to you, nor would I have done
anything had you not said what you said
when you said it. That's very welcome
the opportunity in the future. Thanks
for having me. But yes, I loved it. I
reached out on Twitter. I said, "Listen,
I'd love to tell your story." He like
and he replied, "I love Real Vision."
And that's great. We're all doing we're
all doing the right thing, spreading the
word, Mike. Brilliant to speak to you.
Thank you ever so much for your time.
I'm sure people are going to get a lot
out of this. Thank you, Ralph. Hey, Real
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