SaylorCorpus

RV Classic: When Michael Saylor Decided To Go ALL-IN on Bitcoin

Raoul Pal The Journey Man · 2025-06-26 · 2h 09m · View on YouTube →

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available through Stargate. Hi, I'm Ral

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Pal and welcome to my show, The

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Journeyman, where I travel to that nexus

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of understanding between macro crypto

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and the exponential age of technology.

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Now, I've obviously been in crypto for a

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long time since about 2012 is when I was

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first involved. But one of the great

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interviews I did of all time was the

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interview with Michael Sailor back in

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2020 that kicked off this whole stampede

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of the kind of Bitcoin treasury

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strategy. And I'm traveling right now.

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And so I thought, you know, what could I

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bring you that would be interesting for

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you to learn from the genesis of the

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idea of why Michael Sailor did this.

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Now, you've all seen hundreds of Michael

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Sailor videos, but this was the first

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long form one with him. It was the one

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where we really dug into why he got

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there, what he saw in it all, and I

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thought it would help you frame it. So,

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anyway, enjoy this video from 2020, and

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I'll be back next week with something

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fresh and new from an OG in this space

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who got me into crypto back in 2012.

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Okay, enjoy. Join me, Ral Pal, as I go

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on a journey of discovery through the

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macro, crypto, and exponential age

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landscapes. In the journey, man, I talk

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to the smartest people in the world so

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we can all become smarter together.

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Michael, great to get you on Real

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Vision. You've become suddenly a legend

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in the crypto business and kind of a

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real thought leader for many people. and

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I just thought it would just be

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fascinating to get you on. But before we

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go down that kind of crypto journey, I'd

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love to hear a bit about your

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background, where you came from, and

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also Micro Strategies itself. Okay. Um,

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I'm an Air Force brat. My father was in

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the military. I lived on Air Force bases

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my entire life. I got a scholarship from

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the United States Air Force to go to

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I went to MIT and I and I was that

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generation where I read science fiction

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books. I read them all. A big fan of

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Robert Heinline. I decided I was going

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to be a rocket scientist and I got an

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aeronautics and astronautics degree with

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a specialty in spaceship design.

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And uh while I was there, I um I

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stumbled across uh this school of

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management uh uh system dynamics uh the

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construction of cons uh computer models

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to predict the future. And uh I ended up

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getting a second degree in science and

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technology and society and the history

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of science. So that that was formative

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because it was all about paradigm

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shifts, the structure of scientific

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revolutions and how did people decide to

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embrace nuclear power or electricity or

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petroleum. And a lot of people think

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that technology just kind of is a modern

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thing. But of course, and they think

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that technology companies are a class of

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investments. And I I'm always amused

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when finance people talk to me about the

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tech sector

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because they're only It's kind of an

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ignorant statement. There's never been a

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successful growth company that wasn't a

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technology company. Once you understand

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technology for the past hundred years,

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John D. Rockefeller was a tech company.

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You know, General Electric was a tech

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company. craft and Hershey's were tech

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companies. So, um, studying technology

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for the past 100, two, three, 400 years

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and why people do it. That was

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interesting to me. I, um, thought I was

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going to be a fighter pilot astronaut,

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right? But, uh, so I learned to fly in

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the Air Force and in my senior year, uh,

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Reagan won the Cold War. They ramped

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down, the military, cut it in half, and

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I had a macroeconomic event combined

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with just a random a random uh personal

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event that catapulted me into business.

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The macroeconomic event was the end of

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the Cold War, the draw down of um the

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United States military. Uh and uh the

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United States had paid for my education,

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and I was like on the hook to serve. I

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thought I'd be in the military 10 years.

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And um my final flight physical my

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senior year at MIT, they diagnosed me

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with a benign heart murmur and that

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disqualified me from flying jets. Now,

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by the way, the hilarious part of the

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story is they kicked me out of uh the

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aviation program. Uh I was a little bit

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dejected and then the next week they

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came and they said, "You can join the

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Air Force Reserve and be a civilian."

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and I was going to get paid three times

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as much money as a civilian as I would

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have made an inforce. So I thought,

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well, you just gave me a free education

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and I get to like not pay the money

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back. By the way, the week before they

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said, well, if you don't go in the

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military, that's awall. You go to jail.

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Okay, so I went from you're going to be

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in the military for a decade or you go

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to jail to Ronald Reagan is giving you

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the gift of your freedom. And by the

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way, to make it easier, if you want to

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be in the military, you have to wait two

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years working a part-time job before we

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call you up and then maybe we'll call

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you up. So, I kind of got a kick out of

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the military and then a doctor said,

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"You can't fly." And I was kind of

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dejected and I thought, "Well, this must

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be a sign from God. I should do

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something else." So, I joined the Air

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Force Reserve and I left MIT.

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I um I worked for about two years and uh

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I was going to go get a PhD

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uh because I had a very simple list. I

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you know every every red-blooded

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American male in the 80s had this list.

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Rockstar, astronaut,

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fighter pod astronaut, Top Gun, right?

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So, I tried my rockstar thing in high

0:11:38

school and then I realized rock stars

0:11:40

don't make any money or at least 99.99%

0:11:43

of musicians make like 20 bucks for the

0:11:46

game. Yeah, I tried it and I just can't

0:11:48

play guitar. I'm just not coordinated

0:11:49

enough. So, I had to give up for one

0:11:51

reason or the other. We give up on

0:11:52

Rockstar. That was our first goal. The

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second goal was fighter pilot astronaut

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and that that was dashed by some

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physician. You were close. By the way,

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the hilarious part of the story is a

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decade later, I go back to the doctor.

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He goes, "Oh, you're perfectly fine." I

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said, "I can't be fine. I have benign

0:12:09

heart murmur. I have mitro valve

0:12:11

prolapse." He goes, "No, you don't." I

0:12:12

said, "But but but I'm sure I do. They

0:12:15

kicked me out of the Air Force because I

0:12:16

had it." He said, "Oh, that was a

0:12:18

mistake. They used to make that mistake

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all the time. You know, we have much

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better equipment now." So, so I left my

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fighter pilot astronaut track because of

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a mistake and I ended up uh ended up

0:12:32

working but I left a military track on

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February March my senior year. I missed

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all of the financial aid applications

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for fellowships. I couldn't afford I had

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no money. I couldn't afford to go to a

0:12:43

PhD program. So, I worked for a year. I

0:12:46

applied for all the fellowships. I got

0:12:48

into MIT and Harvard and I was going to

0:12:51

go get my PhD and be a professor and

0:12:53

life was done. And uh just as I did

0:12:56

that, I informed my boss and my boss

0:12:59

worked at the Dupont Corporation and he

0:13:02

had I had built a computer simulation to

0:13:05

predict the return on the investment of

0:13:07

about a billion dollars of capital

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investment in titanium dioxide and they

0:13:12

needed that model to get the board to

0:13:14

give them the money. So, uh, when I

0:13:17

attended my resignation, the guy saw his

0:13:19

billion dollars of capital going away.

0:13:22

And I'm sure he said to someone that

0:13:24

works for him, "Go tell give the kid

0:13:26

whatever he wants, but he can't quit

0:13:28

yet." And I was 24 year old. I happened

0:13:31

to be important to a guy that needed a

0:13:34

billion dollars. You know, I didn't know

0:13:36

I was important. I was just the right

0:13:38

place at the right time. So he tells a

0:13:41

guy who tells a guy that comes to me and

0:13:43

says, 'Okay, well we'll give you a raise

0:13:45

if you stay. I said, 'I don't want a

0:13:47

raise. I want to be a professor. They

0:13:49

said, 'Well, what do you want? I said I

0:13:51

said, rockstar astronaut,

0:13:55

there's only one other thing I want. I

0:13:57

want my own company. So I said, I'll

0:13:59

stay if you finance my I I want uh I got

0:14:04

millions of dollars of contracts. I got

0:14:06

a quarter million dollars up front. I

0:14:08

got free office space for couple of

0:14:11

years. I got all the computer equipment,

0:14:13

IT support. 10 people from Dupont came

0:14:15

over to work for me. They didn't take

0:14:17

any equity. So, it's the best deal ever.

0:14:20

And I you I did this one negotiation, my

0:14:23

best negotiation of my life. They, you

0:14:25

know, I had zero money. In fact, when I

0:14:27

started this company, I went to a bank

0:14:29

and I got the only unsecured loan that

0:14:32

you can get as a 23 year old, which is I

0:14:35

said, "I want to buy $5,000 of

0:14:37

furniture." I mean, they gave me a

0:14:40

$5,000 furniture loan. I was living in

0:14:43

an apartment at 700 bucks a month with

0:14:45

uh with milk crates for bookshelves, and

0:14:49

I thought, five grand, that'll last me

0:14:52

six months. I maybe that'll make it. So,

0:14:54

I got a $5,000 furniture loan. Then I

0:14:57

said to Dupont, "I need a $100,000 cash

0:15:00

check upfront to start." You can imagine

0:15:03

these guys in suits. And they thought

0:15:05

the kid is out of his mind. And and they

0:15:08

said, "We can't give you that. You might

0:15:09

take that money and run off to the

0:15:11

Caribbean like maybe where you are right

0:15:13

now." And I was like, "Well, you know,

0:15:15

you got to give me the money because I

0:15:16

and this is my negotiating story. I

0:15:18

said, "You got to give me the money

0:15:20

because I have no money.

0:15:25

And they looked at me and they're like,

0:15:25

"You got a point there. You got no

0:15:27

money." So I they literally wrote me a

0:15:30

$100,000 check. And by Ral, at this

0:15:33

point on $700 a month rent, I literally

0:15:37

believed that $100,000 would last me for

0:15:40

seven years. I calculated I had seven

0:15:43

years of capital. Took the money and I

0:15:47

started Micro Strategy. And we're at 10

0:15:50

people the first year. And I thought,

0:15:52

I'm going to defer my PhD program and

0:15:54

when this thing fails, I'm going back to

0:15:57

college. And the next year we were 20

0:16:00

people. And the next year we were 40

0:16:01

people. The next year we're 80 people.

0:16:03

The next year we're 300 people. And the

0:16:05

next year people said, "You got to go

0:16:07

public." And and at some point I So what

0:16:10

year what year are we in? What year are

0:16:11

we in now? We started I graduated MIT

0:16:14

87. I started this in ' 89. Started

0:16:18

micro strategy in ' 89. Wow. And again,

0:16:21

I got so lucky, like lucky that I got

0:16:25

misdiagnosed by that doctor, lucky that

0:16:28

Reagan won the Cold War. Then I got

0:16:31

lucky that the dotcom boom took off

0:16:33

because if you recall between 96 and 99,

0:16:38

everybody was going public. And we were

0:16:40

just coming of age in 96, 97,

0:16:44

you know, and in 98 we came public, June

0:16:46

of 98. And of course if we'd come if we

0:16:49

had two years late wouldn't have

0:16:52

happened two years early wouldn't have

0:16:55

happened. We came out right that through

0:16:57

that window and by then it was just too

0:16:59

late for me to go back to college and I

0:17:01

was like stuck as a CEO for better

0:17:04

worse. So that's how Micro Strategy was

0:17:07

founded. It was if I c I couldn't do it

0:17:10

again like in that Twilight Zone episode

0:17:13

where the CEO goes back and gets all of

0:17:15

his knowledge to try again. and he ends

0:17:17

up the janitor. If you put me back there

0:17:20

again,

0:17:22

I'm like, well, I need the Cold War to

0:17:24

end and I need a doctor to make a

0:17:26

mistake and I need someone to tell me to

0:17:28

do the opposite of what I wanted to do

0:17:30

and then, you know, it's just all

0:17:33

random. So, were you a risk taker with

0:17:36

the firm? So, as you go through the the

0:17:39

journey from, you know, going public, so

0:17:40

everyone's a risk taker when you start a

0:17:42

business, you have to be, but then after

0:17:43

that, were you a risk taker? I mean how

0:17:45

did how did that kind of corporate

0:17:47

journey evolve you as CEO? You know I in

0:17:50

hindsight I was a risk taker but at the

0:17:53

time I didn't realize I was taking the

0:17:55

risk. The most dangerous kind of risk

0:17:59

I you know like uh like if I if I could

0:18:03

go back I would give myself counsel to

0:18:05

do things differently. But yeah we we

0:18:08

did take risk. Although um

0:18:11

one thing that I I did is I just was

0:18:15

always very passionate about technology.

0:18:18

So we launched Micro Strategy as a

0:18:21

business intelligence company and we

0:18:23

were always inventing the next thing. By

0:18:25

the way, the first um the first risk

0:18:30

that I took was I created a piece of

0:18:33

software to create computer simulations

0:18:36

on a Macintosh. And older, wiser minds,

0:18:39

professors from MIT told me, "Uh, that's

0:18:42

an awful idea. Um, the Macintosh is not

0:18:45

going to win. Everybody knows that

0:18:47

business people use PC." Okay, we were

0:18:49

like a million-dollar company then. I

0:18:51

said, "Well, I guess you're right, but

0:18:53

the Macintosh is much more beautiful."

0:18:55

and better technology than the PC. So we

0:18:58

doubled and doubled again

0:19:01

and they and the professor that gave me

0:19:03

that advice was still running a $300,000

0:19:05

a year consulting business and we are 4

0:19:08

million with with the wrong technology.

0:19:11

So then the professor asked me what I

0:19:13

was doing. I said, "Well, I'm creating

0:19:14

executive information systems using this

0:19:17

spreadsheet called wings with a

0:19:18

hyperscripting language." And that

0:19:20

professor said,"Well, all my friends

0:19:22

tell me that Excel is going to be the

0:19:24

choice for all big businesses and Wings

0:19:27

is going to fail." So I said, 'Well, you

0:19:29

may be right, but Excel doesn't have a

0:19:31

scripting language, so we'll try it for

0:19:33

a while. Well, we doubled again and

0:19:35

doubled again, and we got to be 30

0:19:36

million. And he was right, and he's

0:19:39

still running his $350,000 consulting

0:19:41

business. And then he asked me what I

0:19:44

was doing. And I said, 'Well, I've

0:19:46

decided to convert to Microsoft Visual

0:19:49

Basic and we're going to create

0:19:50

relational analytics on top of big

0:19:52

databases. And he said, well, do you

0:19:53

have any experience big database? I

0:19:55

said, no, none at all. And he said,

0:19:57

well, you know, Visual Basic is not what

0:19:59

people use for software engineering.

0:20:01

They use C++. I said, yeah, but I can't

0:20:03

figure that out yet. So, we did it and

0:20:05

we doubled again to $60 million. and he

0:20:08

was still running his $350 million

0:20:11

$350,000 consulting business, not making

0:20:14

a mistake. At which point I realized,

0:20:16

you know, you're kind of an idiot. You

0:20:18

need to write us the software in C++. So

0:20:21

we took the money that we made making

0:20:23

the first set of mistakes and we wrote

0:20:24

it in C++ and we doubled again. And

0:20:27

then, you know, I'm sure someone would

0:20:29

have said don't go public, but basically

0:20:32

I would say we mistake. You're not very

0:20:34

good at listening to people. That's your

0:20:35

problem. You know, I always chase after

0:20:37

these shiny things,

0:20:40

okay? But but there's a method to the

0:20:42

madness, which is you're better to be

0:20:44

correct and do something that works now

0:20:48

and then figure it out three or four

0:20:50

years from now than to do nothing and

0:20:53

sit and wait and be beat to death. So I

0:20:56

mean the short of the story is yeah I

0:20:58

took like six or seven risk and and

0:21:00

every three years we had to invent

0:21:01

something new web intelligence, mobile

0:21:05

intelligence. We launched a we launched

0:21:08

a business called alarm.com. Oh by the

0:21:11

way I got really enamored with domain

0:21:13

names. I you know I bought

0:21:15

microstrategy.com

0:21:17

for my email and then I got lazy and I

0:21:19

thought I hate typing micro. Wouldn't it

0:21:22

be better if I just had the email

0:21:23

sailorstrategy.com?

0:21:25

So, I bought it. You know, back in the

0:21:27

day when you could buy it for $100,000,

0:21:29

I bought the word strategy and still own

0:21:32

it. So, then I thought, this is kind of

0:21:34

cool. What other words could I buy? So,

0:21:36

I thought it'd be cool to be sailor at

0:21:39

michael.com.

0:21:40

So, I bought michael.com and then I

0:21:43

bought mike.com and then I was like,

0:21:45

then I bought wisdom. And by by the way,

0:21:48

the world needs hope, right? Everybody

0:21:50

needs hope. I own hope. I own hope.com.

0:21:54

So, I bought all these domain names.

0:21:56

Hope Allah. Do you still own them? Do

0:21:57

you still own them? I own Hope. If you

0:21:59

would like Hope, by the way, every about

0:22:02

once every month, someone wants to buy

0:22:03

Hope for me or they want some Hope, but

0:22:07

they always offer me like a hundred or

0:22:08

$200,000

0:22:10

and I'm hoping for a hundred million

0:22:12

dollars.

0:22:14

So, I just keep it. But that's a

0:22:17

meandering way of saying I got really

0:22:19

enamored with domains back in the mid

0:22:21

90s to the late 90s. And then I started

0:22:24

thinking these are like real estate and

0:22:25

cyerspace. What if we could

0:22:27

commercialize them? So I commercialized

0:22:31

strategy.com and I created this like uh

0:22:34

it was like a Twitter subscription. You

0:22:37

could sign up for alerts to anything

0:22:39

under the sun. And the company went from

0:22:42

zero to 100 million in one year and then

0:22:44

went from a 100red million to zero in

0:22:46

one year. And I you know it was

0:22:50

it was it was interesting. I learned a

0:22:53

lot from that. I had the skin flaided

0:22:55

off my back.

0:22:57

But, you know, then but then I went on

0:23:00

to alarm.com and but we'd launched these

0:23:03

under the micro strategy umbrella. And

0:23:05

the idea behind alarm was what if you

0:23:08

could wire all your home alarm systems

0:23:09

into the internet and they would talk to

0:23:11

you and talk to your phone and they

0:23:13

would tell they would call you and tell

0:23:14

you if someone broke into your house and

0:23:17

then and uh you know not a brilliant

0:23:20

idea today Amazon and Google and Apple

0:23:23

are doing it. Pretty unique in the year

0:23:26

1998 or 1999. Wow. So we launched that

0:23:31

and uh we launched it on alarm.com. So,

0:23:34

if you go and type alarm.com right now,

0:23:36

what you'll find it's a it's a billion

0:23:38

dollar company. Uh, we eventually spun

0:23:41

it off. We made a decent amount of money

0:23:43

off it. Then they went public with

0:23:45

Goldman Sachs and it's it's a billion

0:23:47

dollar NASDAQ traded company now. So,

0:23:49

that's one of my babies. It flew away

0:23:52

from home. I created another one called

0:23:54

But I bought Angel Ral Angel. A N G. My

0:23:58

my theory of these was very simple,

0:24:00

which is people have a hard time

0:24:03

spelling and they have a hard time

0:24:04

remembering things. So, everybody gets

0:24:08

taught how to spell angel or hope when

0:24:12

they're in high school or junior high.

0:24:15

So, if I tell you my charity or my

0:24:17

company or whatever is on Angel, you go

0:24:20

a A N G. You don't got to go to the

0:24:23

Google. You don't have to go to Yahoo.

0:24:24

You don't have to search for it. If you

0:24:27

search, by the way, for voice on Google,

0:24:31

you get a billion hits. You have to sift

0:24:34

through a billion. If your name of your

0:24:36

company is something voice or whatever,

0:24:38

voice of the people, there's a billion

0:24:39

things you're fighting with. If you own

0:24:42

voice.com,

0:24:43

you go to the top. By the way, not only

0:24:46

do you go to the top of the search

0:24:47

engine, right? Nobody needs the search

0:24:51

engine. You can bypass the search

0:24:53

engine. Everybody knows how to type in

0:24:54

voice, right? So the idea was own the

0:24:57

word in cyberspace. It's a scarce asset

0:25:00

right

0:25:03

for 10 you know thousand years people

0:25:06

been using the word so own the word. So

0:25:09

we basically commercialized on angel the

0:25:12

idea of interactive voice response like

0:25:14

Emma sorry not like Siri Siri or or or

0:25:18

or the like or Alexa and uh we did it

0:25:22

back in 2000. anybody could basically

0:25:25

build an interactive voice response

0:25:27

application. We plugged it into your

0:25:28

telephone and that started to work and

0:25:31

but it was a SAS application. We ran it

0:25:33

out of the cloud and you plugged it in

0:25:35

your telephone and we built it to a

0:25:37

certain point but it was a totally

0:25:39

different brand. It was a different

0:25:40

business model and and I had an

0:25:42

enterprise software company and this was

0:25:44

not enterprise software and it drove all

0:25:48

of the accountants crazy. So eventually

0:25:51

we realized it was more valuable to

0:25:53

someone else than it was to us. And we

0:25:54

sold it for about $120 million.

0:25:57

Uh and so that was my next little hit

0:25:59

with a domain. And then then at some

0:26:03

point I started to realize that if

0:26:07

you're not the best in the world at

0:26:09

something, nobody wants you for

0:26:11

anything. Okay? And it's like, you know,

0:26:14

in the early days we all thought, well,

0:26:16

I got $30 million. I can build this app.

0:26:19

Everybody wanted to be WhatsApp.

0:26:20

Everybody wanted to be Instagram or

0:26:22

whatever. I want I'm I gotta But if I

0:26:25

had a nickel for every time someone said

0:26:26

I have an idea for a mobile app, you

0:26:29

know, it's like, yeah, you do, right?

0:26:32

And it's worth a nickel. I launched all

0:26:36

these things. Some work, some didn't

0:26:38

work, right? And I, you know, I tried I

0:26:41

tried many of them. And then I

0:26:43

eventually realized that you need to

0:26:45

focus, right? It's the first hurdle

0:26:50

is is can you acquire a thing? Can you

0:26:53

build something? Okay, you generally

0:26:56

can. I mean, can you buy that thing? The

0:26:59

second hurdle is can you um can you

0:27:02

compete in that market, right? Can you

0:27:04

can you maintain a competitiveness in

0:27:07

that market? That means investing every

0:27:10

year as much as the next best person is

0:27:13

investing forever, right? Can you stay

0:27:16

competitive? That's a higher hurdle. But

0:27:19

the highest hurdle is can you

0:27:21

commercialize or can you profit from the

0:27:23

thing? So a lot of people can do a

0:27:26

thing. Yeah. Most people can't do a

0:27:29

thing better consistently forever. And

0:27:32

even if you can, can you make money off

0:27:35

it? Okay. So this is this is an

0:27:37

articulation of stoicism. Just because

0:27:40

you can do a thing doesn't mean you

0:27:43

should do a thing. And every young man,

0:27:47

he sees everything. He's like, I have to

0:27:48

do all this stuff. I have an idea for

0:27:51

this and this and this and this and

0:27:53

this. So I I went through that journey

0:27:55

of do this and do and it kind of worked

0:27:57

for you. You had more successes than

0:27:59

failures. I I failed up. I got a lot of

0:28:02

scars but I but it was humbling to I

0:28:05

mean you have to have the failures uh

0:28:08

along with the successes because if you

0:28:10

if you don't fail eventually you get

0:28:12

this big failure where it all comes

0:28:14

crashing down. So I guess I adopted

0:28:16

along the way this idea of stoicism and

0:28:18

I realized that you need to put all of

0:28:21

your heart and soul into one thing. And

0:28:24

so at that point we sold off the one

0:28:27

company, we spun off the other thing.

0:28:30

And I realized, you know, my destiny was

0:28:33

I could I could run Micro Strategy and

0:28:36

be the world's best business

0:28:39

intelligence company solely focused upon

0:28:42

that one thing. that's what we're going

0:28:44

to be. And um I went back to doing that

0:28:47

and I let the other things go and I let

0:28:50

the domain portfolio just sit and um it

0:28:54

and and we just we're the little engine

0:28:56

that could focused on making our

0:28:58

business intelligence better with web

0:29:00

intelligence and mobile intelligence and

0:29:01

cloud intelligence and and now our cool

0:29:04

thing is hyper intelligence. It's like

0:29:06

it's like know the answer before you ask

0:29:08

the question without clicking on

0:29:10

anything, you know, and I'll tell you

0:29:12

about that in a bit if you want. But

0:29:13

yeah, I'm super interested. I I was just

0:29:16

busy minding my own business. I got off

0:29:19

I used to tweet, you know, I used to

0:29:22

tweet all the time. I got off Twitter. I

0:29:24

focused on my core business. And then

0:29:27

eventually I came back. I discovered

0:29:30

Bitcoin. The day I put on Twitter that

0:29:33

we bought $250 million worth of Bitcoin,

0:29:35

the entire hive mind of crypto Twitter

0:29:38

came to life and they went through every

0:29:41

tweet that I had put out there, a

0:29:44

thousand of them, and then someone

0:29:46

dredges up the tweet where I had once

0:29:49

upon a time in my imminent brilliance

0:29:51

discovered that Bitcoin was dead and it

0:29:54

was going to zero. And I

0:29:56

enthusiastically posted that back in

0:29:58

2013. And and everybody wanted to know

0:30:01

what I thought about that. And and and

0:30:04

what I got to tell you is I didn't

0:30:07

remember I ever had an opinion on

0:30:09

Bitcoin until they reminded me that I

0:30:12

had once been utterly wrong on it. And

0:30:15

so I I guess that's very humbling. But

0:30:19

uh but I I love the entire crypto

0:30:22

Twitter community. I mean, I think

0:30:23

they're the smartest, coolest, most

0:30:25

interesting,

0:30:27

uh, charismatic individuals. You know,

0:30:30

when they're right, they're right. When

0:30:32

they're wrong, they're still kind of

0:30:34

interestingly right. And, uh, and I

0:30:37

think they make us better versions of

0:30:38

oursel. But putting that aside, I was

0:30:42

minding my own business running micro

0:30:44

strategy, try to be the best business

0:30:47

intelligence company we can. And I would

0:30:48

say that's 150% focus on the P&L. And I

0:30:52

was not you know and and with regard to

0:30:55

investment my investment world consisted

0:30:58

of this RL it's like

0:31:01

I was a technology investor in the year

0:31:04

2012 I published a book the mobile wave

0:31:06

and in the mobile wave I in essence said

0:31:09

software is leaping from out from under

0:31:12

your desk beyond your laptop onto a

0:31:15

mobile device. It's going from solid

0:31:17

state to liquid state to vapor state and

0:31:20

it's going to be like vapor all around

0:31:22

us. And what that means is that the

0:31:26

entire software uh world is becoming

0:31:29

uhworked

0:31:32

uhorked vapor state uh incredibly

0:31:37

powerful dematerialized versions of of

0:31:39

products and services. And so the

0:31:41

summary is is um Apple computers going

0:31:45

to rule the world. Buy Apple, Facebook,

0:31:47

Amazon, Google. Go. If you read the

0:31:50

book, you know, that's what I wrote. I

0:31:52

mean, the epiphany was 2009. I asked my

0:31:56

niece who was nine years old, you know,

0:31:58

what do you want for Christmas? And she

0:31:59

said, I want the big Apple. And I said,

0:32:01

you want a trip to New York City? And

0:32:03

she goes, no, I want an iPad. Okay. And

0:32:05

I thought, Apple's going to replace New

0:32:08

York City. Apple's going to rule the

0:32:11

world. So my investment thesis was quite

0:32:13

simple. You know, Apple, Facebook,

0:32:16

Amazon, Google. A simple way for a tech

0:32:19

investor to think is you buy a dominant

0:32:23

network according to Metaf's law that's

0:32:26

won the market, the mobile network, the

0:32:28

information network, the video network,

0:32:30

the social network. I just named Apple,

0:32:33

Google, YouTube, Facebook, the you know

0:32:37

commercial. Very simple. buy the

0:32:39

dominant network and wait while all the

0:32:41

naysayers on Wall Street and all the

0:32:44

talking heads and all the people that

0:32:46

know better tell you why you I you know

0:32:48

hedge I hate the word hedge like like

0:32:54

uh you know I could tell you Wall Street

0:32:57

luminaries in 2012 would lecture me on

0:33:00

they would say you know you shouldn't

0:33:01

buy too much Apple stock we've got a

0:33:03

we've got a mutual fund and what we do

0:33:05

is if your Apple stock gets to be too

0:33:07

much of

0:33:08

computer portfolio, we sell it and buy

0:33:10

HP and IBM to diversify you, you know.

0:33:13

And I said, well, guys, don't you

0:33:15

realize that eventually Apple's going to

0:33:16

eat them all and there won't be a need

0:33:18

for HP or IBM or anybody? And what

0:33:21

happens when Apple is 150% of all the

0:33:23

profit in the entire tech indust

0:33:25

industry, right? Like, well, we don't

0:33:27

see it that way. Okay, that's what they

0:33:29

thought. And then they go, well, you

0:33:31

know, we're going to protect you if uh

0:33:33

if your share of your portfolio is too

0:33:35

much technology. we're gonna sell

0:33:37

technology and we're going to buy all

0:33:39

these other assets. And I was like, but

0:33:42

guys, what happens when technology eats

0:33:45

everything and there aren't any other

0:33:46

assets? Okay, in my opinion, and I'm

0:33:49

going to be snarky here, I think an

0:33:52

ignorant investor thinks that technology

0:33:54

companies are a part of of the index or

0:33:58

they're a part of the industry. In my

0:34:02

opinion, as a science historian,

0:34:06

John D. Rockefeller was running a

0:34:08

technology company. If you study the

0:34:10

history of Standard Oil, he did

0:34:11

everything that Jeff Bezos did a hundred

0:34:14

years earlier. And if you study General

0:34:16

Electric, once upon a time, electricity

0:34:19

was pretty technically interesting. And

0:34:21

if you've actually been to the Hershey's

0:34:23

factory in Pennsylvania,

0:34:25

not a one of these investors could build

0:34:27

the damn thing. Hershey's factory is a

0:34:30

computer built in steel welded which is

0:34:33

the most majestic

0:34:36

majestic creation of mankind you could

0:34:38

possibly imagine. Imagine writing a

0:34:40

computer program and billions of dollars

0:34:43

of steel and moving parts that spits out

0:34:45

a hundred,000 candy bars an hour, you

0:34:49

know, without contaminating them. You

0:34:52

know, it it's you think it's not

0:34:54

technology or or craft. You know, I

0:34:57

create ketchup.

0:34:59

The technology was I had clean room

0:35:01

technology. I had to take the tomatoes,

0:35:04

manufacture the ketchup, put in a seal

0:35:07

container without any bacteria in it so

0:35:10

that it didn't rot over the course of

0:35:12

the next year. Okay? It's clean room

0:35:15

technology. No different than Intel

0:35:17

semiconductor chips. So, when these

0:35:19

people think, "Oh, well, we're not

0:35:22

buying a technology company." It's like

0:35:24

every company that ever succeeded was a

0:35:26

technology company and the only reason

0:35:28

it grew was it had technology superior

0:35:31

to everybody else. So I I happen to, you

0:35:34

know, back to 2012, I thought my

0:35:37

investment thesis is you buy technology

0:35:39

companies that have a dominant place in

0:35:41

their industry that are going to eat

0:35:43

everything and then you just wait while

0:35:46

all the people that don't really think

0:35:48

hard about this short you or diversify

0:35:52

out of you. And eventually some

0:35:54

80year-old investor that's got more

0:35:56

money than God will discover that Apple

0:35:59

computer is not some new fangled, you

0:36:03

know, uh, gimmick, right? Eventually,

0:36:06

and he will buy it at 10x what you

0:36:08

bought it for and but and then it will

0:36:11

double again, right? and he will make

0:36:14

some money and you will have made some

0:36:17

money, but you'll have to be beat to

0:36:18

death by well well-educated,

0:36:21

well-intentioned, diversifying experts

0:36:24

while you wait for that to happen. And

0:36:26

they're going to say things like, "We're

0:36:28

going to hedge you out of this or we

0:36:30

don't want to don't want to take too

0:36:31

much risk on Apple, don't want to take

0:36:33

too much risk on Google." What if you

0:36:36

had diversified your Google search

0:36:38

engine into every other search engine

0:36:40

for the last 20? You know, one of the

0:36:42

things I've talked about many times is

0:36:45

there's a lot of people who want to

0:36:46

trade. They think trading makes money.

0:36:48

When you look at people who built real

0:36:50

wealth, it's basically one bet. You

0:36:53

know, Bill Gates is who he is because he

0:36:54

didn't sell his stock essentially, you

0:36:57

know, and that's the same. People take

0:36:59

one clear bet, filter out all of the

0:37:02

noise, and just pursue it.

0:37:05

Raul, you know, I listen to to uh your

0:37:09

phrase irresponsibly long, right? But

0:37:13

but you know, it's really tongue and

0:37:15

cheek. You're not irresponsibly

0:37:19

long. You're you're just you're just uh

0:37:26

unfortunately rational.

0:37:28

Or maybe the word is is uh is like uh

0:37:33

maybe uh slightly early being rational

0:37:38

like you're making a rational decision.

0:37:40

Uh no un what's the word for unpopular.

0:37:43

You're rational and unpopular. Exclus

0:37:48

exclusively rational. Maybe that's the

0:37:51

word exclusively rational. So once you

0:37:55

understand what's going to happen, you

0:37:58

kind of got to do it. I I bought a lot

0:38:01

of Bitcoin recently, like over the past

0:38:05

before that. Why the hell did you have

0:38:06

so much cash?

0:38:09

You know, that was the question I was

0:38:11

thinking. Okay, great. You bought

0:38:12

Bitcoin. Alec, how come you had so much

0:38:14

cash? Aren't you supposed to make cash

0:38:16

if you're in business? You're supposed

0:38:18

to make money, but what do you do with

0:38:19

it? It's just sitting in the business.

0:38:22

Okay. Well, th this takes me back uh

0:38:25

back to where we went off on my little

0:38:27

tangent, which is I was minding my own

0:38:30

business running Micro Strategy where,

0:38:33

you know, running the P&L. I was a wage

0:38:36

earner. You know, you go and you make a

0:38:38

salary and you spend less money than you

0:38:40

make. It's like a it's a 20th century

0:38:42

idea. My dad taught me that like

0:38:45

depression error economics. Spend less

0:38:48

than you make. So, we were making money,

0:38:50

spending less than we were making,

0:38:52

putting cash in the bank, and and we're

0:38:54

struggling to compete against, you know,

0:38:57

my competitors are IBM, Oracle, SAP, you

0:39:01

know, Microsoft, they're all hundred

0:39:04

times bigger than us. We're the

0:39:06

independent, we're the, you know, the

0:39:07

Switzerland. So, we're doing that. That

0:39:09

kind of takes up a lot of your

0:39:10

attention. And I'm not really paying

0:39:12

attention to macroeconomics.

0:39:14

I don't you know the my my investment

0:39:17

thesis as I said was buy tech stocks but

0:39:19

like you can't buy tech stocks as a

0:39:21

public company CEO and put the treasury

0:39:24

into tech stocks and you certainly

0:39:25

couldn't do it in the year 2012. You

0:39:27

might do it in your personal portfolio

0:39:29

but but the the conventional wisdom if

0:39:33

you're running a corporate treasury is

0:39:36

you're going to buy you're going to put

0:39:38

cash and you're going to buy short-term

0:39:40

treasuries short-term T bills. And I

0:39:43

happen to believe before the financial

0:39:45

crisis, you know, I remember the time

0:39:48

when you can make five and a half

0:39:49

percent interest on overnight money.

0:39:52

We're getting five five and a half%

0:39:55

yield. You have $500 million, you're

0:39:58

getting paid $30 million. By the way, I

0:40:00

happen to remember when savings accounts

0:40:02

paid 6% interest. It's like, and by the

0:40:05

way, we didn't think we were getting a

0:40:07

good deal from the bank. We thought that

0:40:09

was totally reasonable.

0:40:11

In every conventional wisdom was the

0:40:15

risk-free cost to capital is 6 to 8% and

0:40:20

then you got to tack on a risk premium

0:40:22

of 4%. So your real cost of capital is

0:40:25

12% to do anything and that's the old

0:40:27

day. So that that's the way I thought

0:40:29

about the treasury and then I thought

0:40:32

and then there were other people. What

0:40:33

else can I do with the money? You can

0:40:35

buy your own stock back

0:40:37

or you can buy another company. Now I

0:40:41

teach a course in uh management theory

0:40:43

to all my managers and my number one

0:40:46

question is how do you wreck a software

0:40:48

company in my history and by Ral I I'm

0:40:52

like the longest presiding public

0:40:54

company CEO in the enterprise software

0:40:56

industry nobody has been CEO of a public

0:41:00

enterprise software company longer than

0:41:01

me 22 years 88 quarters I count them one

0:41:07

at a time everybody came and gone Okay.

0:41:10

How do you wreck a software company? You

0:41:13

know, you have an answer for me. What do

0:41:14

you think? Number one way to wreck it.

0:41:17

I'm assuming it's going to be acquire

0:41:19

somebody else. Make a acquisition. Make

0:41:22

a bad acquisition. Okay. Bingo. The CEO

0:41:25

of SAP comes in. He lasts for nine

0:41:27

months. He buys autonomy. They take 11

0:41:30

billion write off. It's pretty

0:41:33

impressive to burn 11 billion dollars in

0:41:36

11 months on one transaction that you

0:41:39

probably spent I don't know a few hours

0:41:41

on. I mean like how how many lifetimes

0:41:46

how many a million lifetimes to make 11

0:41:49

billion dollars. So um the number one

0:41:52

way to kill a company is make a bad

0:41:54

acquisition. So I got all this cash. Do

0:41:56

I go buy something? I I have lived long

0:41:59

enough to see 90% Yeah. How about

0:42:02

Microsoft buying Nokia? That was a good

0:42:04

idea, right? Uh by the way, you could

0:42:08

have seen that one coming a mile away.

0:42:09

That was the most awful idea you could

0:42:12

imagine. Uh you want to count the

0:42:15

number? 90% of all acquisitions end

0:42:18

awfully, right? And and there's a few

0:42:21

accretive ones. If you buy a small

0:42:23

company, pump it through a massive

0:42:25

distribution channel, jack it up by a

0:42:27

factor of 10 with no variable cost, you

0:42:30

know, maybe it works, but acquisitions

0:42:32

are bad. So, I'm not going to buy a

0:42:34

company. So, what else do you do with

0:42:35

the cash? You buy your own stock back.

0:42:38

Okay. How many how many companies have

0:42:41

gone Toys R Us gone bankrupt because

0:42:44

they bought that, you know, they lever

0:42:46

up, they issue a massive dividend, they

0:42:49

drain the capital, right? drain all the

0:42:52

capital out of the company. They're

0:42:53

running on um What happened if you were

0:42:56

actually running on uh on vapor when

0:43:00

COVID hit? Yeah. It's all over.

0:43:03

Everybody is insolvent. They're all out

0:43:05

of business overnight.

0:43:08

Okay. So, that's another way to kill the

0:43:09

company. You drain all your capital.

0:43:13

So, so what's left?

0:43:16

What what the heck is left? Okay. Steve

0:43:19

Jobs is my hero. Steve Jobs had a near a

0:43:23

near-death experience with his company.

0:43:25

Apple computer was almost, you know,

0:43:27

there was a point when Michael Dell told

0:43:29

Apple they should just give the money

0:43:31

back to the shareholders and shut down,

0:43:34

right? That's a tweet. You probably

0:43:36

don't like coming back.

0:43:38

Okay. So, Steve Jobs kept all that cash,

0:43:41

you know, till the day he died and they

0:43:43

accumulated. They didn't buy back the

0:43:45

stock. I would, you know, I thought

0:43:47

maybe I would like Micro Strategy to not

0:43:49

die and so I was going to keep the

0:43:51

capital. And by the way, so I can serve

0:43:54

the customers, you know, you have

0:43:57

nightmares of your CFO, the nightmare is

0:44:00

you let a customer down, right? like

0:44:03

some when someone actually invests $10

0:44:05

million in my company software and then

0:44:08

they build something with it and they

0:44:10

deploy it, you know, like you gonna go

0:44:13

tell them, oh, we decided not to update

0:44:15

the software. Let me put it a different

0:44:17

way. How would you feel if you put a

0:44:19

hund00 million into Bitcoin and then the

0:44:21

minor said, we're turning off the rigs

0:44:23

and the developer said, "We're not going

0:44:25

to patch the bug or upgrade and so it's

0:44:28

just going to stop working." Right? So

0:44:30

you have a you have an ethical moral

0:44:33

obligation to your customers. And a lot

0:44:35

of times these CEOs, they kind of they

0:44:37

kind of get cute. This the problem with

0:44:40

the the LBO guys. We're going to get

0:44:42

cute. We're going to buy I'm gonna buy

0:44:45

Marvel comics. I'm going to leverage it

0:44:48

up. Drain the capital out of it and

0:44:50

bankrupt Marvel. Right. Happened. Right.

0:44:54

Sad happened. Right. So don't want to do

0:44:57

that. So what can I do? I just leave the

0:45:00

cash in the bank and I'm I'm buying the

0:45:03

stock back at some rate and then along

0:45:06

comes COVID

0:45:08

and and COVID is this transformational

0:45:12

experience. You know Thomas Cune in the

0:45:15

structure of scientific revolutions

0:45:17

which is the seminal work on the history

0:45:18

of science. He wrote when the paradigm

0:45:21

shift comes along, right? The old guard,

0:45:24

you know, when we invent uh antibiotics

0:45:27

or or the science of sterilization or or

0:45:31

nuclear energy or whatever it is we

0:45:33

invent, the old guard rejects it. No one

0:45:35

accepts it until they're dead unless

0:45:39

there's a war.

0:45:41

And the one thing that'll get people to

0:45:43

change their mind is when they die and

0:45:45

their kids take over. That changes some

0:45:47

minds, right? Right. Yeah. And and and

0:45:50

the other thing that gets people to

0:45:51

change their mind is a war, you know,

0:45:53

World War II, you know, and and as as

0:45:56

Trosky said, you may not be interested

0:45:58

in war, but war is interested in you.

0:46:02

And when the war arrives, you all of a

0:46:04

sudden get interested in stuff that you

0:46:07

were able to ignore because it was of an

0:46:11

academic interest to people somewhere

0:46:13

else. So this year we got two wars. We

0:46:18

got a war on COVID and it and it and by

0:46:21

the way, what's the war on COVID done? I

0:46:24

would have fired you, Ralph, if you told

0:46:27

me you wanted to work from somewhere

0:46:29

other than my office. I you know, I

0:46:31

would have said, "You don't show up to

0:46:33

my office. You're not sitting next to

0:46:35

me. You don't have a job here." Last

0:46:38

year, I was firing people that didn't

0:46:41

want to come to work.

0:46:43

Let me tell you what happens next. COVID

0:46:46

hits, lockdown hits. I'm like, I'm

0:46:50

hating that idea. Then I got to have a

0:46:53

meeting. And at 9:00 a.m. in the

0:46:56

morning, we got a meeting and we're on

0:46:58

on video conferencing technology, A,

0:47:01

which I will not mention. And the line

0:47:04

drops, the sound doesn't work, there's a

0:47:07

warable, I blow, throw a little hissy

0:47:12

all my IT people scramble. Uh, by 11:00

0:47:16

a.m. we're on video conferencing

0:47:18

technology two and I got 12 executives

0:47:22

and we're talking blah blah blah blah

0:47:24

blah and two of the executives freeze

0:47:27

and one of them doesn't work and I throw

0:47:29

a second hissy fit.

0:47:32

by 100 p.m. they're like, "Well, you

0:47:34

know, Mike, we've got this thing called

0:47:36

Zoom, and we haven't tried it yet, but

0:47:39

we thought we might try that." I said,

0:47:41

"Hook it up." By 2 p.m. we're using

0:47:44

Zoom. It's working well, like you and I

0:47:48

are working well. By 400 PM, email goes

0:47:51

out from the CEO to the entire company.

0:47:54

Zoom is now a corporate standard. We

0:47:56

will discontinue all other uses of video

0:47:58

conferencing. Everybody in the company

0:48:00

will be certified on Zoom. Zoom

0:48:02

webinars, Zoom video recordings. You

0:48:05

know, a stipen to purchase your own home

0:48:09

microphone will go out to everybody. Buy

0:48:13

green screens if you need to. I expect

0:48:16

it to be done. No more meetings other

0:48:18

than Zoom. By 9:00 am the next morning,

0:48:22

2,500 people have turned left. Okay,

0:48:25

that's what war will do to you, okay? in

0:48:28

a hurry. It's like because you got to.

0:48:31

Now, the first war was the COVID war and

0:48:35

that changed everybody's P&L

0:48:38

and that's half the business. I have a

0:48:40

$500 million operating business and we

0:48:42

sell enterprise software and and in a

0:48:45

matter of weeks, we needed to figure out

0:48:47

how to sell that stuff virtually and how

0:48:48

to deliver service virtually. And 500

0:48:51

consultants went from being on-site to

0:48:54

being uh to being remote. And you know

0:48:57

like the war hit Ral and we started

0:48:58

worrying about what's going to happen to

0:49:00

our business. Nobody knows. Four weeks

0:49:03

later 500 people had gone had gone

0:49:06

remote and I was waiting to see like

0:49:09

whether a meteorite was going to hit me

0:49:11

on the head and you know whether whether

0:49:14

that was going to be mass destruction

0:49:16

would the revenues crumple would

0:49:19

customers go ballistic crazy. Okay. And

0:49:21

then here's what happened.

0:49:24

We stopped spending $5 million a quarter

0:49:27

on on running around on on flying around

0:49:29

in hotels.

0:49:32

Our next $15 million worth of marketing

0:49:35

events, trade shows got cancelled on us.

0:49:40

Then we realized we couldn't stage

0:49:42

$150,000

0:49:44

symposiums even we wanted to.

0:49:47

And then we realized that every

0:49:49

expensive sales and marketing and

0:49:52

services activity we had previously

0:49:54

hereto for engaged in was no longer

0:49:57

appropriate or practical or possible or

0:50:01

relevant or necessary.

0:50:03

We're like

0:50:05

I think I just made $40 million a year

0:50:10

and by $40 million a year on a $500

0:50:13

million a year revenue stream. I got

0:50:16

kicked

0:50:19

I got kicked in the ass with a golden

0:50:20

horseshoe.

0:50:21

[Laughter]

0:50:24

Okay, I don't want to make light of it

0:50:25

because a lot of people are suffering a

0:50:27

lot of pain. Okay, and there's an you

0:50:30

know someone's one person's s cost

0:50:32

savings is another person's revenue,

0:50:34

right? So if you look at the other point

0:50:35

of view, there's a lot of people in the

0:50:37

events industry, the hotel industry, the

0:50:39

airline industry, etc. And they're

0:50:41

suffering, right? But I'm the CEO. I

0:50:45

have to be the fiduciary for my

0:50:46

shareholders and for my customers. And

0:50:48

at the end of the day, what happened at

0:50:50

the P&L is we realized we were going to

0:50:52

be much more profitable and be much more

0:50:54

efficient after this despite the CEO

0:50:59

kicking and screaming, being dragged

0:51:02

into the virtual age. Right. Right. So

0:51:05

that that's me. I had an opinion. I was

0:51:07

wrong. War hit me. Bang on the head.

0:51:12

Okay. I see it differently today. And by

0:51:14

the way, at that point, I saw what

0:51:17

everybody else in the virtual world had

0:51:20

been seeing so clearly three years

0:51:22

before me, four years before me. But I

0:51:25

had to go through three different

0:51:26

vendors. And I had by I had to change my

0:51:30

technology. My customers had to be

0:51:31

forced to take my technology. My

0:51:33

employees had to be forced. If I had

0:51:35

walked in and I'd said to the CIOS that

0:51:38

I deal with, I'm not going to meet with

0:51:39

you face to face. I want you to zoom to

0:51:41

me. 12 months ago, they would have told

0:51:43

me to, you know, go pound sand. So, what

0:51:46

happened really was the war changed

0:51:48

everybody's behavior, right? And and and

0:51:51

uh so we got uh

0:51:54

now I'm going to pick it's a letin

0:51:56

quote, right? I mean, there are decades

0:51:57

when nothing happens and there are weeks

0:52:00

when decades happen, right? And and so

0:52:04

the war didn't change me. The war

0:52:06

changed everybody. And so my P&L is

0:52:08

different. My operating income is

0:52:10

different. And now that takes us back to

0:52:12

the balance sheet. The balance sheet

0:52:14

which was an afterthought. I got a bunch

0:52:15

of money. I'm buying some stock back.

0:52:18

Our stock, you know, got hammered

0:52:20

through the floor.

0:52:22

And then what happens?

0:52:24

I'm watching the market

0:52:27

and and

0:52:30

I'm living the pain of Main Street and

0:52:32

I'm watching that all of these operating

0:52:35

business are getting destroyed getting

0:52:38

destroyed and it's just the most

0:52:40

horrific awful thing of my career.

0:52:43

Horror, right? It's like I I I have no

0:52:46

words for it. I'm not even going to

0:52:48

articulate the words for it except for

0:52:50

to say I watched and felt with a

0:52:54

horrifying pain the dismantling of

0:53:00

my entire world view

0:53:03

of which

0:53:05

not a big fan. Okay. Now, having watched

0:53:09

that change,

0:53:12

then I watched a V-shaped recovery with

0:53:15

Talking Heads on MSNBC

0:53:18

and I just watched the market

0:53:20

go like that and I watched every equity

0:53:23

go through the roof. You know, Apple's

0:53:25

stock goes, it doubles even though any

0:53:29

rational person's how can Apple be worth

0:53:31

twice as much when half of the world's

0:53:34

economy just got wrecked and when

0:53:38

when their revenues and their earnings

0:53:41

are looking constant. So that the

0:53:44

earnings multiples blow through the

0:53:46

roof, right? It's like and then I watch

0:53:51

this is one that blows my mind.

0:53:53

If you told me, if you're a bond

0:53:55

salesman and you said to me, "Mike, I

0:53:57

have an idea for you. I want you to buy

0:53:59

30-year 30-year government bonds that

0:54:02

are going to yield 2% interest for the

0:54:04

rest of your life."

0:54:07

I said, "Are you out of your mind? Are

0:54:10

you out of you must be crazy to sell me

0:54:14

these bonds?"

0:54:16

Those bonds had a 22%

0:54:19

gain in 12 weeks. So, you would have

0:54:23

made a 22% gain on the long bond index.

0:54:27

I'm like, and I feel like an idiot.

0:54:29

Like, I would have made money buying

0:54:32

bonds at 2% yield for the rest of my

0:54:34

life. I would have made money buying

0:54:37

leveraged equity of everything as the

0:54:40

world is going through the floor. And

0:54:42

I'm holding my little bucket of cash

0:54:46

as this is happening.

0:54:48

And that takes me to my second war. What

0:54:51

the first war is the war on COVID. The

0:54:53

second war is the war on currency. But

0:54:55

like people say there's a currency war.

0:54:58

I heard it. I didn't understand it. I

0:55:01

thought currency war. By the way, I

0:55:03

don't even know if everybody agrees or

0:55:04

even under interprets it the way I do. I

0:55:07

thought currency war was

0:55:09

was the US wants to weaken its currency

0:55:13

so that our exports are more affordable

0:55:15

in Europe. I thought, well, that's kind

0:55:17

of cool. You know, when the U when the

0:55:20

currency weakens, all of my revenues in

0:55:22

Europe denominated in the euros go up by

0:55:25

20% and my revenues in dollars go up by

0:55:27

20%. And it's good for my stock and

0:55:30

dollars. It's like that's kind of that's

0:55:32

kind of cute. That's our currency

0:55:34

adjustment. We get that every quarter.

0:55:36

And if the US dollar is weak, we feel

0:55:38

good about it. When the US dollar is

0:55:39

strong, we have currency headwinds.

0:55:42

Okay, that's second order currency war.

0:55:46

Okay. The first order currency war is

0:55:50

every everybody in the world declared

0:55:53

war on currency and

0:55:57

your hundred million in the bank that

0:56:00

bought a bond

0:56:03

that you know maybe I I buy a bond for a

0:56:06

million bucks that yields $50,000 a

0:56:09

year. Okay, that's an asset that's

0:56:11

interesting to me. I want to retire. I

0:56:13

buy a million dollar bond yielding 5%

0:56:15

interest and I get 50,000 a year. When

0:56:18

the currency war hits now that bond

0:56:22

trades up to $2 million and it yields 20

0:56:25

50,000 a year but it's 2 and a.5% yield.

0:56:28

So what happened was the bonds shoot

0:56:31

through the roof and they appreciate by

0:56:33

100%.

0:56:35

What really happened in the past 12

0:56:38

weeks is assets we saw asset inflation

0:56:42

of 25 to 40%.

0:56:45

Okay, CPI is such a misnomer, right?

0:56:50

Like people talk about inflation like

0:56:52

it's CPI. Well, you can measure the

0:56:55

inflation rate of of consumer products

0:56:57

and services. Yeah, I buy a Domino's

0:57:00

pizza and I buy Netflix and I buy

0:57:03

YouTube. Those aren't inflating. When I

0:57:06

measure the market basket of consumer

0:57:10

assets, it's like my retired dad would

0:57:13

like to buy a million dollar bond that

0:57:14

yields $50,000 a year in interest. When

0:57:17

I measure that, you're talking about,

0:57:21

you know, six, seven, eight% in a normal

0:57:24

year as the money supply increases. All

0:57:26

of the things that I want to buy,

0:57:29

I'm being snarky. All the things I want

0:57:31

to buy are going up eight% a year in a

0:57:33

good year. All the things that are being

0:57:35

given away for me that are manufactured

0:57:37

by machine. There's also a function of

0:57:40

this and just listen to you just

0:57:41

clarified a thought for me. Right? The

0:57:43

function of inflation is generally

0:57:45

driven by demand. Right? I I don't

0:57:47

believe it's necessarily fully a

0:57:49

monetary phenomena. Maybe demand has

0:57:50

passed, but demographics plays a big

0:57:52

part. Right? The largest demographic

0:57:54

wave of all time are the baby boomers.

0:57:58

Those guys, guess what? They want to buy

0:58:01

retirement assets,

0:58:04

you know, and so you know that, you

0:58:06

know, there's a perceived value in that.

0:58:08

So, it's kind of crowded within certain

0:58:12

things

0:58:14

and it's created this enormous bubble in

0:58:16

it. And and that's that's where my

0:58:18

dispute is with with all the entire

0:58:22

media fixation on inflation as CPI. It's

0:58:26

like, do I want to buy a million dollars

0:58:29

worth of Domino pizzas and do I want to

0:58:31

buy a million dollars worth of Netflix

0:58:32

or a million dollars worth of consumable

0:58:34

products or do I want to buy a million

0:58:37

dollars worth of assets that let me not

0:58:39

work for the rest of my life? Well, that

0:58:42

they're measuring the things that are

0:58:45

easy to manufacture with a robot or a

0:58:48

factory. They're not measuring the

0:58:50

things that I want that because the

0:58:53

things that I want are scarce assets

0:58:55

that have a yield. And you know, let's

0:58:57

take a share of Apple stock. Well, you

0:59:00

wanted a share of Apple stock when it

0:59:04

quarter of what it costs today. Yeah.

0:59:07

Okay. It now costs four times as much.

0:59:09

How can you say inflation is 2% if the

0:59:13

uh if the thing I wanted to buy went up

0:59:15

by 400% and without the underlying

0:59:18

business changing by without the

0:59:20

underlying business changing. So now we

0:59:21

come back to currency war the wars on

0:59:24

the currency and and the result is 25%

0:59:29

inflation on current if you're holding

0:59:31

currency and you want and what do you

0:59:33

what can you convert treasury assets

0:59:35

too? You can convert them into other

0:59:37

assets.

0:59:39

Okay, I'm not going to buy Domino's

0:59:41

pizzas with treasury assets. I'm gonna

0:59:44

I'm gonna eventually buy a a bo a stock

0:59:48

that has a dividend or I'm a a a stream

0:59:51

of cash flows or I'm going to buy a bond

0:59:54

that has a stream of cash flows. And

0:59:56

right now, the bond that I can buy is

0:59:59

going to yield 1.3% interest for the

1:00:02

rest of my life. So now you start

1:00:05

thinking, but I I didn't have to really

1:00:08

think about it until I got hit in the

1:00:10

head with the 2x4 of this currency war.

1:00:14

And and then if I wasn't paying

1:00:15

attention,

1:00:17

the internet explodes, MSNBC explodes. I

1:00:21

if if you haven't noticed it now, right,

1:00:23

I mean, you must be living under a rock

1:00:25

somewhere, right? It it's pretty

1:00:29

noticeable. So then I start getting

1:00:31

introduced to the concept of I always

1:00:33

knew nominal interest rates were low.

1:00:35

Yeah, that I get. But then I start

1:00:37

thinking about real interest rates, but

1:00:39

I was just, oh, the real interest rate

1:00:41

on a 10-year bond is like, well, minus

1:00:43

1%. Well, no, it's not. I mean, it's

1:00:49

only minus 1% if you buy into the notion

1:00:51

that CPI is is inflation.

1:00:56

But if you actually start thinking in

1:00:57

terms of of inflation is a vector based

1:01:01

upon what you want to acquire with the

1:01:03

cash then you realize the rate at which

1:01:05

tech equity has been inflating is a lot

1:01:08

faster than like what's the what's the

1:01:11

rate at which Apple stock has been going

1:01:14

up is that its CPI right is that 10% is

1:01:17

that 50%. So now if I look at asset

1:01:20

inflation, I start thinking you know at

1:01:24

at that point the real yield on my cash.

1:01:29

Yeah. But there is a c but the bonds had

1:01:32

a capital gains as you pointed out

1:01:33

before. So the net offset of of bonds

1:01:37

over the course of this year bonds

1:01:39

versus NASDAQ has been a pretty close

1:01:41

run. Yeah, you're you're right. It's all

1:01:43

doing well. If you were smart enough, by

1:01:45

the way, I it it's totally counter to my

1:01:49

thinking. How could a person rationally

1:01:52

lock up it his company's capital for the

1:01:54

next 30 years for 2% interest? See, if

1:01:57

if I'm the CEO and you said, "No, you

1:01:59

you you'd invest it back in the business

1:02:01

at the very least. If not, you're saying

1:02:03

your business cannot generate a 2% ROI."

1:02:07

Okay, here's my my problem is moral

1:02:10

hazard. If I took $500 million and I put

1:02:14

it into a 30-year bond yielding 2%

1:02:18

interest and if any if if any

1:02:23

rational economist took over the Fed,

1:02:27

you would think the interest rates going

1:02:28

to go to 4% or 5%. The inter everybody

1:02:32

knows that the economy cannot function

1:02:35

with 0% interest forever, right?

1:02:39

Interest rate is the value of time.

1:02:42

We're we're in a war with time. We want

1:02:44

to stop. Yeah. Will you give me

1:02:47

everything that you own? Will you give

1:02:49

it to me for the rest of your life if I

1:02:51

return onethird of it to you when you're

1:02:53

dead?

1:02:55

Right. That's what 1% interest is, Ral.

1:02:58

Right. Right. Give me everything you

1:03:01

own. I will give you 1% of it back each

1:03:04

year for the next 30 years. And when

1:03:07

you're dead, you will get 30 your heirs

1:03:10

will get 30% of what you gave me. Now,

1:03:15

so here's here's the moral hazard. I

1:03:18

well or the dilemma for me as a CEO.

1:03:22

If I invest the 500 million in the

1:03:24

30-year T bills at 2%, I'm taking the

1:03:28

risk. I'm I'm making the bet that no

1:03:31

rational actor will ever fix the problem

1:03:34

in in in the Fed, right? I'm like I have

1:03:38

to bet all my company's treasury that

1:03:41

the world will stay irrationally priced

1:03:44

forever. It kind of it was the right bet

1:03:46

for a Japanese CEO to have made. It's

1:03:48

like by the way, you know, if Ray Dalio

1:03:50

says cash is trash, right? Like um I

1:03:53

don't know if he says it. the trolls

1:03:54

say. He says it, but uh like I'm going

1:03:58

to wait for 30 years and see whether

1:04:00

whether the government has inflated the

1:04:03

cash and then you're going to give me

1:04:04

back the 500 million in 30 30 years.

1:04:07

It's like I that doesn't make any sense

1:04:10

because I'm pretty much be I I can't but

1:04:14

I can't construct a rational argument

1:04:16

whereby 30 years from now I will have

1:04:19

made money on it. But here's here's what

1:04:21

I would think. Any rational person would

1:04:24

think that you lock up $500 million for

1:04:26

30 years at 2% interest. When the

1:04:28

interest rate goes to 4%,

1:04:31

your bonds are going to trade down by 30

1:04:33

or 40% and you're going to lose the $200

1:04:35

million, right? So, when I'm looking at

1:04:37

I'm thinking, you know, that's the

1:04:39

craziest thing ever, right? I can't

1:04:41

imagine that. So, if you're a shorter

1:04:44

term trader, I'm like, okay, have at it.

1:04:47

Buy the 30-year long bond index. you're

1:04:49

g but but no one seems to be thinking

1:04:51

they're going to hold it for 30 years.

1:04:52

So but I I can't get that. So So on one

1:04:56

hand I look at that as just massive

1:04:58

hazard moral hazard craziness. And on

1:05:01

the other hand I look at all these all

1:05:03

the equities I'm like well I can't just

1:05:05

buy individual equities. I mean the

1:05:08

there's too much equity risk there. And

1:05:11

then meantime I just watch you know I

1:05:14

watch the talking heads. We get beat to

1:05:16

death with this issue of real return.

1:05:20

And I start to go to school on that. And

1:05:22

I realize that you can calculate a real

1:05:25

yield. If if your real yield is take the

1:05:29

asset inflation rate and subtract that

1:05:32

from the the nominal yield, then the

1:05:35

conclusion you come to pretty quickly is

1:05:39

that the real yield on cash

1:05:43

this year is minus 30%.

1:05:47

Minus 25%. Right? If you were holding

1:05:49

the cash, if you were holding a 30-year

1:05:51

bond, you broke even or may you know or

1:05:54

maybe you're okay. But I I but I'm not.

1:05:56

If you're holding a two, three, fouryear

1:05:58

instrument, the real yield is obscenely

1:06:01

bad is minus 10, 20, 15, 20, 30. It

1:06:04

depends upon how you see that. The real

1:06:07

yield on on on

1:06:10

uh anything I was holding is bad. Now

1:06:13

the question is how do I get a positive

1:06:16

yield?

1:06:17

Like I I I use this phrase. I said, you

1:06:21

know, I come to the horrifying

1:06:23

conclusion that I'm sitting on a $500

1:06:25

million ice cube

1:06:28

that's melting.

1:06:30

It's It's melting at 6% in a good year

1:06:34

and and for the last decade, it's been

1:06:36

melting at 6%. Okay, I I was there, but

1:06:40

I could ignore it. In good times, you

1:06:42

ignore the 6%.

1:06:44

But then when you have to actually get

1:06:46

educated on macroeconomics, you realize

1:06:48

it's been melting at 6%. And then you

1:06:50

realize that this year it's melting 25%.

1:06:54

And then you have to look out over the

1:06:56

next three years and ask the question,

1:06:58

is it going to continue to melt at 20% a

1:07:00

year for the next three years? Is it

1:07:03

going to melt at 15% or 10%?

1:07:07

you know and uh if you think of it in

1:07:09

your terms because basically part of

1:07:11

your construct is that opportunity cost

1:07:13

is is your negative yield essentially

1:07:17

right now let's say you're a corporate

1:07:19

treasurer and you've got 500 or the CEO

1:07:22

you've got $500 million as you said you

1:07:25

could choose to make an acquisition well

1:07:27

guess what it's 40% more expensive now

1:07:29

in in the sector that you want to

1:07:30

acquire so as you say your opportunity

1:07:32

cost has been incredibly expensive by

1:07:36

sitting in cash. So to offset that,

1:07:38

which I guess is what your mentality is,

1:07:40

you need an asset that can offset that

1:07:42

opportunity cost without overpaying for

1:07:45

the asset. You know, R and you say you

1:07:47

say a wise thing that investor gets. I

1:07:51

was CEO. I didn't get it. I like I

1:07:53

didn't get some things until I got it.

1:07:56

Okay. Until this year, I would go to my

1:07:58

investors and I said, "Well, we got a

1:08:00

great company. We got 500 million, 600

1:08:01

million in cash, a great bulletproof

1:08:03

balance sheet." And they looked at me

1:08:05

like like we're not going to value the

1:08:07

cash. Like they didn't value my cash.

1:08:10

They thought, you know, they thought it

1:08:11

was like worth nothing. And you know, I

1:08:13

kind of took offense to that. Like they

1:08:15

don't get it. Like that the cash means

1:08:17

that we're indestructible. We're going

1:08:18

to live forever and we can do the right

1:08:20

thing by our employees, our

1:08:21

shareholders, and by our customers,

1:08:24

right? And why why is it I'm being

1:08:26

punished for being virtuous, for saving

1:08:28

my money, and for being responsible and

1:08:31

conservative, right? And I was kind of,

1:08:33

you know, angry, you know, not angry,

1:08:35

irritated a little bit, like they don't

1:08:36

get it. And then I realized they kind of

1:08:39

do get it. They had a different

1:08:40

perspective. I just didn't understand

1:08:42

what they were trying to tell me. And

1:08:43

their perspective is, I mean, there's no

1:08:47

rational investor that would raise a

1:08:48

billion dollars and say, "My my plan is

1:08:51

to put it in cash and wait, right? You

1:08:53

can't go raise that money." So their

1:08:56

perspective was assets are inflating at

1:08:58

6% or 7% a year in a good year. If I'm

1:09:01

not beating 7%, I can't stay in this

1:09:04

business. So, that takes you to this

1:09:07

this notion that the asset inflation

1:09:09

rate is actually just the cost of

1:09:11

capital. Okay? And okay, bingo.

1:09:16

Your cost of capital if you're the CEO

1:09:18

of a publicly traded company in a good

1:09:20

year in a normal year is 6% or 7%.

1:09:23

You better actually generate more than

1:09:25

7% with it or you got to give it back to

1:09:28

the shareholders. I mean down to the

1:09:31

razor thin margin. Now, now there's a

1:09:35

certain elegance to that. Um, why didn't

1:09:38

we actually do that? Well, it used to be

1:09:42

we're thinking I I've got a bunch of

1:09:43

capital. We were buying our stock back

1:09:46

at a at a measured rate, you know, and

1:09:49

uh we were very thinly traded. So if I

1:09:51

bought 20% of the stock back in the

1:09:53

windows without moving the market, it

1:09:56

takes me like seven years, you know,

1:09:58

takes me some number of years to buy it

1:09:59

all back, you know, it's very

1:10:01

frustrating. And if I like if I and I

1:10:04

can't go any faster than that, you know,

1:10:05

without doing a tender offer or the

1:10:07

like. So we're we're doing a bit of that

1:10:10

and then along comes the pandemic and

1:10:13

everybody gets kicked into high gear and

1:10:15

the opera the P&L gets kicked into high

1:10:17

gear and we're transforming and then

1:10:20

this macroeconomic change takes place

1:10:23

and the cost of capital now r is not 6%

1:10:26

anymore. the cost of capital just

1:10:28

spiked. And so the fascinating thing

1:10:31

here is if you're a corporate treasurer,

1:10:33

your cost of capital was 6%. This year,

1:10:36

your cost of capital is 25%.

1:10:39

And then all the assets that you could

1:10:41

buy go through the roof. And now this is

1:10:43

a problem, right? Do I go buy a company?

1:10:45

90% likely I burn the business. I

1:10:49

destroy the if I buy a bad acquisition,

1:10:52

then I probably make a mistake. That's a

1:10:53

that's a a peril. Do I go by um the S&P

1:10:58

500 after it spiked up today? The most

1:11:02

crowded trade, right? They're saying the

1:11:04

most crowded trade is is Well, also the

1:11:06

f the future expected returns are

1:11:07

basically negative by most people's

1:11:09

assessment for the next 10 years. So,

1:11:10

you're basically locking into a loss. It

1:11:13

feel it could very well be a loss decade

1:11:15

uh for for equities. So, but

1:11:20

I I watched television for the past like

1:11:23

four months and it just it's amazing to

1:11:26

me that that um the equity commentators

1:11:30

managed to find something positive to

1:11:32

say every single day, you know, every

1:11:36

single day. It's amazing. So, yeah, that

1:11:40

doesn't doesn't really work for me. So,

1:11:43

my cost capital spikes. I get I get

1:11:46

sensitized to the issue. We start

1:11:48

thinking we got to do something. Okay.

1:11:51

So now you put yourself in my situation.

1:11:53

You have 500 million in cash.

1:11:57

Cost of capital went through the roof

1:11:59

and and every central banker wants to

1:12:03

print more money.

1:12:05

And every intelligent investor is

1:12:07

telling you that cash is trash. What

1:12:09

would you do if you're me? I I came to

1:12:12

the same conclusion you did. I mean,

1:12:14

it's basically is you need to look for

1:12:17

an asset that's going to protect you in

1:12:19

a number of scenarios that has a high

1:12:21

expected upside that beats the cost of

1:12:24

capital. And so that's the only thing I

1:12:27

can think of. And so it to me it came

1:12:29

down to golden golden Bitcoin. So So we

1:12:33

tick through these. So what what can I

1:12:34

buy? Uh I'm not going to buy an

1:12:36

individual equity. I'm not going to buy

1:12:38

another company. Can I buy a portfolio

1:12:40

of commercial real estate? Oops. Half

1:12:43

commercial real estate's impaired. The

1:12:45

other, you know, the other half is over

1:12:47

inflated. And who's going to sell me

1:12:50

$500 million worth of commercial real

1:12:52

estate at a fair price that's not

1:12:53

impaired this year? Right? That's not

1:12:56

going to work. So now I'm down to uh can

1:12:59

I buy an index of stocks? Well, anything

1:13:01

you want to buy companywise that's cheap

1:13:04

is basically insolvent and comes with a

1:13:06

bunch of debts. Anything that doesn't

1:13:08

come with a bunch of debts is crazy,

1:13:10

ludicrously expensive. Okay, you're

1:13:12

right. I get it. And and so mark that

1:13:16

off the list. So So now I I What have I

1:13:18

got? Precious metals and Bitcoin. So I

1:13:21

look at two things that I completely

1:13:23

dismissed was oblivious to my entire

1:13:26

life, Ral. Right. Like, and so all of a

1:13:30

sudden, you get hit in the head with a

1:13:33

and you cross off your list. Every door

1:13:36

is shut to you, but these two other

1:13:38

random doors. And so you got to open up

1:13:40

the doors and start to look. And so now

1:13:42

I go down the rabbit hole and I start

1:13:44

studying and you know you can learn

1:13:47

anything on the internet. So all of a

1:13:50

sudden you get discovered by me, Pomp

1:13:53

gets discovered by me. I ha I have this

1:13:56

friend Eric Weiss who's who uh runs a

1:14:01

crypto hedge fund and a couple years ago

1:14:04

he told me about Bitcoin. I thought,

1:14:05

well that's crazy.

1:14:08

I kind of dismissed it out of hand like

1:14:09

like well I mean couldn't someone else

1:14:11

create a Bitcoin cry cryptocurrency and

1:14:14

then all the money will drain away and

1:14:16

maybe you know h how do you know it's

1:14:18

going to work and so I just don't even

1:14:19

look at it don't even think about it you

1:14:21

know and um when all the other doors

1:14:25

shut this one opens and now I now I have

1:14:27

a problem right if someone took $500

1:14:31

million out of your bank put it in your

1:14:33

backyard opened the back gate and then

1:14:35

every month someone came in and they

1:14:38

burned 2% of your money.

1:14:41

You know, it's like you go from thinking

1:14:44

your money is safe to having extreme

1:14:47

anxiety. Extreme. So now I got a problem

1:14:50

to solve. I I I first had to solve the

1:14:52

P&L problem. Now we switch to the

1:14:54

balance sheet and um so what do we do?

1:14:57

Well, take this off. First I go and I

1:15:00

stud, you know, I study the stuff and I

1:15:02

get to introduce the stock to flow,

1:15:03

right? and all all of a sudden I'm

1:15:05

looking at plan B and I'm what is stock

1:15:07

toflow? Okay, 2% you know 2% of the gold

1:15:11

supply gets inflated every year and then

1:15:13

I start doing the math and then I start

1:15:15

thinking about it. I'm thinking, well,

1:15:17

2% minus, you know, whatever it's it's

1:15:21

better. And then I start looking at

1:15:23

crypto and I look at Bitcoin and then I

1:15:26

realize this is what I and then I start

1:15:28

with all the concerns about Bitcoin,

1:15:30

right? What if it gets forked, right? I

1:15:33

mean, you know, there's nothing more

1:15:34

anxietyinducing than when someone puts

1:15:36

eight pages in front of you of what

1:15:38

happens to your crypto if it gets a hard

1:15:40

fork or a soft fork and you're studying

1:15:42

it. So, I started studying it. But, but

1:15:46

then I realized, here's what I realized

1:15:49

in short order. Bitcoin's a $200 billion

1:15:52

asset. Bitcoin is a hive of cybernetic

1:15:57

hornets doing the bidding of mother

1:16:00

nature protected by by a a wall of

1:16:05

encrypted energy.

1:16:07

Right? That's what I saw once I started

1:16:10

to dig it. It's a It's a living

1:16:13

cybernetic harm hive creature with a

1:16:16

wall of encrypted energy and and Lord

1:16:20

help the guy that tries to shove his

1:16:23

hand into that hornets's nest and steal

1:16:26

from it. Right. It's and I thought

1:16:28

that's interesting. And then I studied

1:16:31

Ethereum.

1:16:32

That's the number two. And then I

1:16:34

realized Ethereum is is something

1:16:37

totally different a world computer. and

1:16:39

they're still chasing after

1:16:40

functionality,

1:16:41

you know, all sorts of functionality and

1:16:43

like more power to them. Decentralized

1:16:46

finance, it's interesting. It's

1:16:47

experimental there. It might be

1:16:50

something that Micro Strategies build

1:16:52

something on in the future for Ethereum.

1:16:54

Yeah. I mean, I guess I guess what I'd

1:16:56

say is is um I saw all that stuff, but

1:17:01

it's there's still a question of of will

1:17:03

it work? has to be proven and there are

1:17:05

centralized competitors to it and

1:17:07

they're not done with the functional

1:17:09

architecture. I mean if you understand

1:17:12

proof of work then when the founder says

1:17:15

well we think we're going to switch it

1:17:16

to proof of stake because we don't think

1:17:18

proof of work will work for us then you

1:17:20

know you realize there's there's a

1:17:22

fundamental dogmatic set of assumptions

1:17:24

and there's an existential debate going

1:17:26

on there. Sure. You know, fast forward

1:17:29

to the conclusion which is if you look

1:17:32

at all the proofof work crypto networks,

1:17:34

Bitcoin is 92% of them all. The next

1:17:37

competitor is 2%. The next competitor is

1:17:40

one and a half percent. The next

1:17:42

competitor is less than 1%. It's the

1:17:45

market screaming to you that there's a

1:17:47

winner, right? So, when everybody says,

1:17:49

well, you know, there might be another

1:17:51

one. No, there wouldn't be, well, this

1:17:54

might be the MySpace. Well, no. If you

1:17:57

knew anything about the history of

1:17:59

MySpace, you would know that MySpace

1:18:01

flamed out at a billion dollars.

1:18:04

You know, it it flamed out when it was

1:18:08

less than 1% of what Bitcoin was. You

1:18:12

know, Bitcoin was never MySpace. You

1:18:15

know, Bitcoin is the Facebook of of

1:18:19

closed digital monetary networks. and

1:18:23

it's already crushed everything and it's

1:18:24

eating it's software eating the world,

1:18:27

right? Software eating money and it's

1:18:30

only going to get more powerful. So now

1:18:34

we're back to my issue. I know I got to

1:18:36

buy hard assets.

1:18:38

It's a question of silver, gold,

1:18:40

Bitcoin. And now I start thinking about

1:18:44

you know, and here's what I'm thinking,

1:18:46

Ral. It's like I think everybody's too

1:18:48

short term on this stuff. You want to

1:18:50

really understand it. Step back from the

1:18:52

noise. Look at the big picture.

1:18:55

How does this feel across time and

1:18:57

space?

1:18:59

I'm going to take $100 million and I'm

1:19:02

going to give it to my successor in a

1:19:05

hundred years.

1:19:07

Okay? You want to send something to your

1:19:09

grandchildren or your

1:19:10

great-grandchildren. If you want to

1:19:12

endow anything of value, a park, a

1:19:15

company, an institution, a foundation, a

1:19:19

family, a whatever, whatever, a

1:19:21

religion, you a a political system, I

1:19:24

don't care what it is. If you believe in

1:19:25

it and you want it to be here 100 years

1:19:27

from now, you got some money. How are

1:19:31

you going to convey the hundred million

1:19:33

dollars across a hundred years without

1:19:36

losing it? Would you invest it in Apple

1:19:39

stock? Apple might not be around. Would

1:19:41

you invest it in dollars? Traditionally,

1:19:43

Traditionally, real estate's been that

1:19:45

answer, but even that's risky. Okay. So,

1:19:48

you want to buy a hundred million

1:19:49

dollars of real estate in California?

1:19:52

Yeah. No. Okay. Do you know what the

1:19:54

property tax rate is in Florida? That's

1:19:57

true. I forget about US property taxes.

1:19:59

Okay. I know. It's 2%. If you take a

1:20:02

$100 million and you buy Florida real

1:20:04

estate, it's $2 million a year. And by

1:20:07

the way, it gets appraised up every

1:20:08

year. which means that over 30 years you

1:20:12

lose it all. The property tax rate on

1:20:15

anything in the real world is going to

1:20:17

drain it from you. You can't buy real

1:20:19

estate. If you look at all assets you

1:20:21

can buy the qu you buy a stock, you buy

1:20:24

an equity, you've got a property tax,

1:20:26

you've got an income tax, you've got uh

1:20:29

you've got employee payroll taxes,

1:20:32

you've got regulation, you've got

1:20:33

customs, you've got trade, you've got

1:20:35

tariff. Now, I'm going to come back to

1:20:37

you with a question. How are you going

1:20:39

to convey your family's wealth across

1:20:42

the generations for 100 years? And if

1:20:45

you don't I'll just stop right there.

1:20:46

How are you going to do it? You tell me.

1:20:49

Well, the only thing is and gold is not

1:20:51

easy because where do you store it and

1:20:55

how do you pass that along? Okay, so let

1:20:57

me stop you there and tell me what the

1:20:58

I'm going to tell you what the problem

1:20:59

is with gold. I thought about it. Take

1:21:02

your $100 million and put it in gold in

1:21:05

a vault.

1:21:07

gold miners are going to print two

1:21:09

million 2% more every year. Okay? If if

1:21:14

gold miners produced if you owned the

1:21:16

entire supply of gold in the world and

1:21:19

if it was pure right for London delivery

1:21:21

gold bars and it isn't right but if it

1:21:23

was and if you were sure you owned it

1:21:25

all if gold miners create 2% more every

1:21:29

year the rule of 70 says every 35 years

1:21:31

the gold supply doubles which means that

1:21:34

you would own half the gold supply in 35

1:21:36

years a quarter of the gold supply in in

1:21:40

uh another 35 years and in a hundred

1:21:42

years, you're going to own about 15%

1:21:45

maybe even 12% of the gold supply. So

1:21:49

here you'll like this. So I was thinking

1:21:51

through something similar in a different

1:21:53

way. I just wanted to look at the Fed

1:21:55

balance sheet growth over the last

1:21:58

whatever period I wanted to choose and I

1:22:00

looked at every asset against it. The

1:22:03

Fed balance sheet outperformed

1:22:04

everything. Outperformed gold by 50%. So

1:22:07

gold's done a bloody lousy job. It's

1:22:09

better than many things. There's only

1:22:11

one asset only one asset that did it and

1:22:15

it killed it was Bitcoin. Okay? And by

1:22:19

the way, and I know why now, and and

1:22:22

I'll tell you why I think it is in a

1:22:23

second. Um, I thought I was going to buy

1:22:26

gold and a very smart guy that that that

1:22:28

works for me, my consolidary, he said,

1:22:31

he said, "Mike, I remember, you know,

1:22:33

gold back in the 70s and the 80s is 600

1:22:36

$600 and then it traded down and and

1:22:39

it's gone nowhere for a decade." And I

1:22:42

can I'm like, everybody says gold's the

1:22:44

ultimate hard money. What's the problem?

1:22:46

What am I missing in this picture? And

1:22:48

then here's what I realized.

1:22:51

Gold's got an inflation rate at 2%.

1:22:54

Over time, that means a hund00 million

1:22:57

is going to be worth $12.5 million at

1:22:59

2%. You're going to lose 80 85% or 87%

1:23:04

of your wealth if it inflates at 2%. But

1:23:07

it's worse than that because gold's not

1:23:09

pure. Half the gold supplies floating

1:23:11

around, right? It's it's not all stamped

1:23:14

good delivery bars in London. Yeah,

1:23:17

that's the second problem. The third

1:23:19

problem is if gold price goes up, every

1:23:22

minor is your enemy. They're going to

1:23:24

print more. They're going to mine more

1:23:26

gold. They're going to ship more gold.

1:23:28

They're going to capital invest in more

1:23:29

gold. This is the dilemma of every

1:23:32

commodity business. And I used to work

1:23:33

for commodities at DuPont. The dilemma

1:23:36

is if the price of the commodity or

1:23:39

let's go back to oil fracking.

1:23:42

We fought wars over oil.

1:23:44

We went and fought wars over oil to

1:23:47

protect our oil. What happened when the

1:23:49

price of oil went to $100 a barrel?

1:23:52

Fracking. We invented a new technology

1:23:55

to And by the way, what happened? The US

1:23:57

produced so much oil, it became a world

1:24:00

crisis. We doubled. We produced 5

1:24:03

million barrels of oil a day and now we

1:24:05

produce 10 million barrels of oil a day

1:24:07

and then 11 and 12. And everybody was

1:24:09

like, "Hold it. You're gonna produce too

1:24:11

much oil." Okay? And then you realize

1:24:14

OPEC, the secret to making money in oil

1:24:17

is a cartel.

1:24:19

John D. Rockefeller understood it. A

1:24:21

cartel. Anything that humans can produce

1:24:25

with with their brains and with capital

1:24:28

is going to get overproduced. And that's

1:24:30

this. And that's the problem with uh

1:24:33

with using um um a commodity as a money

1:24:38

because ultimately if if gold is

1:24:42

successful then intelligent people are

1:24:44

going to produce more gold and you're

1:24:46

going to double triple quadruple the

1:24:47

supply of it. Anything with a

1:24:49

supernormal return gets arbited away. So

1:24:52

those returns are only available for a

1:24:53

period of time. Everybody gets into the

1:24:55

game. The margins collapse. I mean it's

1:24:57

everywhere. I mean that that's

1:24:58

capitalism. And and so people that think

1:25:01

they're buying hard gold, the problem by

1:25:02

the way, by the way, I we could have

1:25:05

another cast, I could talk with you for

1:25:07

two hours about about um the technical

1:25:11

problems with gold, you know, and but I

1:25:13

don't want to get derailed by that. Um I

1:25:16

want to I want to basically start with a

1:25:18

simple premise.

1:25:20

If I look at Bitcoin,

1:25:23

there's a lot of people in the Bitcoin

1:25:24

community that talk about stock to flow

1:25:26

and how it's going down and and I

1:25:28

appreciate it and I and I think it's a

1:25:30

good contribution, but I have a

1:25:31

different take on that as a public

1:25:33

company CEO, which is this. Every time I

1:25:36

print my share count, there's only one

1:25:38

number that matters. I print fully

1:25:40

diluted share count. No one ever asked

1:25:43

me, "Well, how many shares do you have

1:25:45

this minute?" Nobody ever asked me, "How

1:25:47

many shares are going to vest with

1:25:48

employees next month or next year?" They

1:25:51

just ask me one question. What's your

1:25:53

fully diluted share count? We take your

1:25:55

earnings, we divide by that, we're done.

1:25:57

Take your revenues, divide by that,

1:25:59

we're done. The fully diluted Bitcoin

1:26:02

count is 21 million. Done. The fact that

1:26:05

it's going to trickle out or what? I

1:26:07

don't care. Fully diluted Bitcoin count

1:26:10

21 million. Instead of saying it's the

1:26:13

stock to flow is higher. Now stock to

1:26:16

flow is exponentially going to infinity.

1:26:19

Stock to flow is infinite which means

1:26:21

it's infinitely hard because a rational

1:26:24

actor and I consider myself a rational

1:26:26

actor. I didn't buy Bitcoin expecting I

1:26:29

was buying you know this much Bitcoin

1:26:32

divided by 18,500,000.

1:26:35

I bought the Bitcoin thinking I was

1:26:37

buying that share of 21 million. And I

1:26:39

knew that and I and so now we're back

1:26:41

this very a simple thing. You take your

1:26:44

$100 million and you hold it for a year

1:26:46

in fiat currency, you're going to have

1:26:49

1% or half a percent of it left. You're

1:26:51

going to lose 99% of your money in a

1:26:54

hundred years. Boy, I know that to be

1:26:57

the case. I have a house in Florida, a

1:26:59

nice house in Florida. It would cost you

1:27:03

$15 million to buy that house. 20

1:27:06

million today. I have the sale deed for

1:27:09

that house in 1930. You know what the

1:27:12

number is on it? A h 100,000.

1:27:15

A $100,000 in 1930. Count the number of

1:27:19

years between 1930

1:27:21

and the year 2020 and figure out what

1:27:25

the uh depreciation rate was on fiat

1:27:28

currency in the US dollar. I it's a it's

1:27:31

you're going to lose 99% of your money

1:27:33

if you put it in cash. Okay, so we all

1:27:35

agree on that. Okay, this is the thing

1:27:37

that people don't say. You're going to

1:27:39

lose for sure 85% of your money if you

1:27:43

put it in gold. You're g for sure. By

1:27:47

the way, and that you're you're assuming

1:27:49

that nobody invents a better chemistry

1:27:52

for gold. We don't find gold anywhere

1:27:54

else. Nobody invests any more money in

1:27:56

gold mining. Nobody gets any smarter and

1:27:59

the gold price doesn't go up too much.

1:28:01

And if all those things are true and

1:28:03

people still use gold, you're going to

1:28:05

lose 85% of your money. But if human

1:28:08

ingenuity kicks in, gold is a commodity.

1:28:10

You're going to lose 90% of your money

1:28:12

in gold. Now, if you put your money in

1:28:14

Bitcoin, you're keeping it all. You're

1:28:18

not losing anything once from if you

1:28:20

don't believe in fully diluted Bitcoin

1:28:22

count, you have a 15% loss in a 100

1:28:26

years. But if you do believe in it,

1:28:27

there's no loss. Now, let me give you

1:28:29

another analogy.

1:28:32

You want to cross the Atlantic.

1:28:35

If you cross the Atlantic in a vessel

1:28:37

made of fiat currency, it's like

1:28:39

stitching together a bunch of inflatable

1:28:41

rafts. You're c by the way, you're

1:28:44

crossing the Atlantic in a in an

1:28:46

inflatable boat with a leak in it.

1:28:50

Or you want to cross the Atlantic in a

1:28:53

in a gold vessel, you're cross the

1:28:55

Atlantic in a wooden ship. Oh, it's sort

1:28:58

of good, but it's rotting. You know,

1:29:00

it's a wooden ship. It's better than

1:29:02

inflatable. It doesn't have a leak in

1:29:04

it, but it's wood and it's going to

1:29:06

decay. It's decaying 2 3% a year.

1:29:10

You're crossing the Atlantic in Bitcoin.

1:29:12

It's a steel hole freighter. The thing

1:29:15

about steel, you know, like I say to the

1:29:18

guys that say, "Well, why do I want a

1:29:19

steel boat?" They go, "Well, because

1:29:23

steel is indestructible and the welds

1:29:27

are harder than the original steel." If

1:29:29

you put a hole in steel and you weld it,

1:29:32

the weld is stronger than the original

1:29:34

material. Steel will last as long as you

1:29:37

maintain it will last forever. Okay? So,

1:29:41

rubber boat, wooden boat, steel vessel.

1:29:44

And now here's an epiphany, right? I

1:29:46

mean, if that's not enough, right? I

1:29:48

mean, like there's no comparison between

1:29:51

losing 80 to 90% of your money versus

1:29:54

not losing any of your money. There's no

1:29:56

comparison. But here's another epiphany.

1:29:58

I'm an aeronautical engineer from MIT. I

1:30:02

studied I studied spaceship design. I

1:30:05

studied aircraft design. I studied

1:30:07

building design.

1:30:10

You know, the entire science of civil

1:30:12

engineering requires one element. Do you

1:30:14

know what the element is?

1:30:17

Steel. Think about it for a second. I

1:30:20

build a building with with wood. You can

1:30:23

build a two-story building. You ever see

1:30:25

a five-story wooden building?

1:30:28

I built, you know, that's that's fiat. I

1:30:31

build a building of stone,

1:30:34

you know, and masonry. Look at all of

1:30:37

Europe. All of beautiful Europe. Every

1:30:39

building in Europe, five stories, six

1:30:41

stories. That's as far as you go, you

1:30:44

know, with brick.

1:30:46

What happens when I invent steel?

1:30:50

I build a 50story building. You think

1:30:53

steel is twice as good as bricks?

1:30:57

Yeah. You you could build a hundredstory

1:30:58

building, right? Steel steel is is

1:31:02

elemental to or instrumental to New York

1:31:04

City. There is no New York City without

1:31:06

steel. You there is no skyscraper.

1:31:08

There's no science of civil engineering

1:31:10

until you invent steel. You could say

1:31:13

iron maybe if you want. But in but

1:31:15

without the element without the element

1:31:17

of steel, there's no civil engineering.

1:31:20

Now flip to airspace. You know,

1:31:22

aerospace. You ever see a plane made of

1:31:25

steel?

1:31:26

No, they don't fly. Steel is the perfect

1:31:30

element except for the fact it's too

1:31:32

heavy to fly. That's why we use

1:31:34

aluminum. No aluminum,

1:31:37

no airplanes, no industry, nothing. Take

1:31:41

away aluminum, the entire aviation

1:31:44

industry goes to zero. Right? Andrew

1:31:47

Melon made his money on aluminum. Andrew

1:31:50

Carnegie made his money on steel. Right?

1:31:53

These are fundamental things. These were

1:31:55

technologists. The entire industry is

1:31:58

based on it. Now the gold standard good

1:32:02

idea in the 19th century, right? The

1:32:05

best idea you could have in the 19th

1:32:07

century.

1:32:09

But I mean just like wooden ships.

1:32:12

Pretty good idea to have wooden ships if

1:32:13

you're the British Empire. if that's the

1:32:15

best you can have, you know. Now, along

1:32:18

comes Bitcoin, cryptocurrency,

1:32:23

it's it's when I say it's harder than

1:32:26

gold. I mean it's not just 10 times

1:32:30

harder because it goes it goes a hundred

1:32:33

years without losing any of its value. I

1:32:35

say it's harder because it's an organic

1:32:38

nest of cybernetic hornets

1:32:42

feeding off of encrypted energy. It's a

1:32:45

living thing, which means that the

1:32:47

miners are going to keep upgrading their

1:32:49

equipment. The developers going to keep

1:32:51

upgrading their development. The nodes

1:32:52

are going to change. Everybody, the

1:32:54

ecosystem is going to change. And

1:32:56

they're changing in this

1:32:59

terrifying Darwinian capitalistic

1:33:02

libertarian aggressive winner take all

1:33:06

hold no bars you know no you know no one

1:33:11

company country companies holding like

1:33:15

the like I've been CEO

1:33:18

I thought I was right I was wrong you

1:33:21

could be the most brilliant CEO in the

1:33:23

world you know anything that's

1:33:25

controlled by a CEO is crippled.

1:33:27

Controlled by a state is crippled.

1:33:29

Controlled by a country, it's crippled.

1:33:31

This entire thing is its own ecosystem.

1:33:35

You know, gold is not going to get a

1:33:38

million times smarter in the next 10

1:33:40

years. It's not thinking at all. It's a

1:33:42

lump of metal lying there, right? What's

1:33:47

you know, Nicholas Taleb wrote

1:33:49

anti-fragile. I think Taleb is

1:33:50

brilliant. You know, I love all of his

1:33:52

books. Read every one of them twice.

1:33:54

Right. Uh, Bitcoin is an anti-fragile

1:33:58

evolving

1:34:00

evolving thing.

1:34:03

It's the hard its hardest currency

1:34:06

because it's getting continually

1:34:07

exponentially harder. It's getting

1:34:10

harder, but it's also smarter,

1:34:14

stronger, and faster than gold, right?

1:34:17

It's smarter because these com I I can

1:34:20

create a computer program. I can put on

1:34:22

a machine behind that bar and I can have

1:34:24

it make a million trades with your

1:34:27

crypto every night while you're sleeping

1:34:29

and move it around, right? But I can't

1:34:32

do it with gold. If I want to move a

1:34:34

$100 million of gold, I got to put it on

1:34:36

a jet, fly it around the world. It's

1:34:38

$250,000 to physically deliver $100

1:34:41

million worth of gold. I can physically

1:34:43

deliver $100 million worth of Bitcoin in

1:34:45

five bucks, right? five dollars and in

1:34:49

30 minutes, you know, depending upon how

1:34:51

riskaverse you are. But if I if I want

1:34:53

to move it, I can put a piece of

1:34:55

software on it. By the way, Ral, you

1:34:59

know, when I move a hundred million

1:35:00

dollars into a crypto exchange to buy

1:35:02

crypto, I gotta talk to like three

1:35:04

bankers on the phone and they're asking

1:35:06

me they're asking me for my birthday,

1:35:09

Ralph. You can go on Google and you can

1:35:12

Google Michael Sailor and do you know

1:35:14

what the I you don't even have to click.

1:35:17

Do you know what Google puts underneath

1:35:19

the Google for my birthday my birthday

1:35:23

you know? So, the banking system is

1:35:25

running about a million times slower and

1:35:27

less secure to move this stuff around.

1:35:30

Um, when I put it in when I put this

1:35:32

this elemental energy into Bitcoin,

1:35:35

it's smart because it's getting smart as

1:35:38

fast as the smartest crypto bank can

1:35:40

program something intelligent. And I am

1:35:42

in awe of how of how many these uh these

1:35:46

things are going on so fast. Defi and

1:35:48

CFI, right? It's not clear to me whether

1:35:50

you're going to use DeFi or CFI. Doesn't

1:35:53

matter. Whatever is going to work is

1:35:54

going to work. It's all happening. Yeah.

1:35:56

It's faster because it's dematerialized

1:35:59

gold. I look at all my employees and I

1:36:02

say, "We're in the virtual wave, guys.

1:36:04

You can now move at the speed of light

1:36:05

and bend time and space. What are you

1:36:08

going to do with it?" Right? If if I can

1:36:11

actually take your hundred million

1:36:13

dollars worth of gold, dematerialize it,

1:36:15

chop it into 10 million pieces, and move

1:36:17

it around the world a hundred times a

1:36:19

second, something new is going to

1:36:21

happen. And then it's and it's stronger.

1:36:25

It's stronger because you can liquidate

1:36:28

a hund00 million worth of Bitcoin on a

1:36:31

Saturday afternoon in a foreign country,

1:36:34

in a foreign currency.

1:36:37

And you know, you can do this and maybe

1:36:39

you might take a 3% haircut. You know,

1:36:42

you might like, holy crap, it's

1:36:44

volatile. It moved down 300 bucks. Well,

1:36:48

3% haircut to liquidate $100 million of

1:36:51

gold on a Saturday afternoon. Try doing

1:36:54

that in in Istanbul. Like try

1:36:57

liquidating a hund00 million sitting in

1:36:59

a vault in New York City in Tokyo on an

1:37:03

afternoon on a weekend. Right? So, the

1:37:06

issue is gold's going to be audited once

1:37:10

every, by the way, I apologize for

1:37:13

digressing, but you can't make this

1:37:14

stuff up. It's really hilarious. When I

1:37:16

borrow $100 million from a conventional

1:37:18

bank,

1:37:20

you know how they verify my collateral,

1:37:24

they ask me to have my accountant

1:37:26

prepare a financial statement as of the

1:37:30

end of last fiscal year. And so I

1:37:33

actually deliver a statement that has

1:37:35

all of my assets on it. And if I'm

1:37:38

borrowing money on uh June 30th, I'm

1:37:41

giving you a January 1 financial

1:37:43

statement. And and

1:37:47

by and I'm asserting that I have not

1:37:49

double pledged the collateral or

1:37:50

committed bank fraud and my accountant

1:37:53

is asserting it. And that's a pretty

1:37:54

serious thing, but you I'm saying it

1:37:57

tongue and cheek, right? Yeah. It's

1:37:58

ridiculous. Why? Why do people care

1:38:01

about publicly traded companies? Well,

1:38:03

you know, public, you know, a public

1:38:06

company has more credibility than a

1:38:08

private company and has a lot more

1:38:10

credibility than a private individual.

1:38:12

And here's one reason why. I and my CFO

1:38:19

Oxley statements, financial reports, and

1:38:22

every quarter I sign my financial

1:38:24

report. If I lie to you, Ralph, it's a

1:38:27

crime, right? I go to jail, right? If a

1:38:31

public company officer mis uh

1:38:34

misrepresents the state of the balance

1:38:36

sheet, the state of the business, like

1:38:38

you ask me like how's the future of the

1:38:40

business, I'm I'm going to equivocate. I

1:38:42

think we're, you know, the future of the

1:38:44

business will be the future of the

1:38:45

business, and we're just really excited

1:38:47

about working on the future of the

1:38:49

business. It's because it's a crime for

1:38:51

me to mislead. Okay. So, so the way that

1:38:55

we actually certify collateral is is via

1:38:59

uh regulations and criminal statutes.

1:39:02

And that's why the most credible

1:39:04

entities in the world are American

1:39:07

publicly traded companies, right?

1:39:09

Because everybody knows that if you

1:39:11

trade on the NASDAQ or the New York

1:39:13

Stock Exchange and you're a CEO or a CFO

1:39:17

of an America, you know, I if I heard a

1:39:19

guy that worked for a guy that worked

1:39:21

for a guy that worked for a guy that

1:39:22

worked for me in a foreign country was

1:39:25

actually doing something sloppy, I'm

1:39:27

thinking, well, foreign corrupt

1:39:28

practices act makes me criminally liable

1:39:31

for that. And that person gets his head

1:39:32

chopped off. Okay. So, so that's the way

1:39:36

that you actually pledge collateral

1:39:39

normally. With Bitcoin, we've totally

1:39:42

turned on his head. Anybody can inspect

1:39:44

the fact that I own the Bitcoin in one

1:39:45

second. Yeah. And and uh every 10

1:39:49

minutes you could take a complete audit

1:39:51

of everything. I mean, I wrote that

1:39:52

article about it being the world's most

1:39:53

pristine collateral. I mean, it's

1:39:55

perfect for the struct the foundation

1:39:57

stone of everything. As you were talking

1:39:59

about, you know, it's the steel of an

1:40:02

entire new financial system. is this I I

1:40:04

think what you've said is brilliant but

1:40:06

I don't think it's understood when you

1:40:08

say it's the world's best collateral the

1:40:10

world is operating on like gold is

1:40:13

collateral gets audited every seven

1:40:15

years or every three years it might be

1:40:17

there it's impossible to move it's

1:40:20

impossible because of rehypothecation

1:40:23

and the reuse of assets right it's not

1:40:25

clear Bitcoin ownership is guaranteed

1:40:30

so it's so pristine the only thing we

1:40:32

haven't got is a yield curve So your

1:40:33

third, yes, you've got it implicitly in

1:40:36

the fact that it's got a limited supply,

1:40:39

but eventually there will be a market

1:40:41

for you to lend out your your Bitcoin

1:40:43

and it's going to trade at a premium to

1:40:46

bonds, US bonds, because it's like you

1:40:49

lending out a piece of art. Well, [ __ ]

1:40:51

it. If somebody's going to borrow a

1:40:52

piece of art, they're going to pay you

1:40:53

for it. I I totally agree and I think

1:40:56

the yield curve is coming and when I

1:40:57

look at the forward contracts, it's it's

1:41:00

very fascinating to me. But summary of

1:41:02

my entire meandering analysis is

1:41:08

Bitcoin,

1:41:10

if it's not a hundred times better than

1:41:12

gold, it's a million times better than

1:41:14

gold. And there's nothing close to it.

1:41:17

And and most people, they're focused

1:41:19

upon stock toflow is better. And what

1:41:21

they haven't they haven't factored in is

1:41:24

that the smarter, faster, stronger makes

1:41:27

it a million times better. And it's

1:41:29

steel to masonry for the firmament of

1:41:32

the 21st century financial eos. Love

1:41:35

that analogy. So here's another question

1:41:37

for you. So you make the brave decision

1:41:39

to do this.

1:41:42

It doesn't seem brave to you because it

1:41:43

sounds it feels like the most

1:41:44

intelligent rational decision you can

1:41:46

make, right? But somebody else, oh my

1:41:49

god, what's he doing? So you go to your

1:41:51

CFO and go, okay, I've got Bitcoin.

1:41:54

Currently, it's marked as an intangible.

1:41:56

We can't we don't get any appreciation

1:41:57

of the value of it and gap accounting

1:42:01

doesn't work. How the hell did you get

1:42:02

through that all that [ __ ] to put it on

1:42:05

the balance sheet and yeah so not to be

1:42:07

marked where you bought it all all time.

1:42:10

So now we shift to the subject of how do

1:42:12

you build consensus in a in an

1:42:14

institution or a publicly traded

1:42:16

company. Yeah. because yeah it's it's

1:42:19

one thing uh for me to believe it but

1:42:22

there's a lot of other fiduciaries and

1:42:23

they have to understand it and they have

1:42:25

to assess all the risk so what happened

1:42:27

next is is um I started cheerfully

1:42:31

assigning homework to all the officers

1:42:34

and all the directors of the company

1:42:36

right you know and you can imagine some

1:42:40

of your podcast got linked to them a lot

1:42:43

of uh Pomp's podcast got sent to him.

1:42:47

Um, Eric Vorhees debate, famous epic

1:42:51

debate with Peter Schiff over the future

1:42:53

of of fiat versus Bitcoin as the world's

1:42:57

best currency got sent to them. Bitcoin

1:42:59

standard. Uh, the Bitcoin stand. Lynn

1:43:02

Alden's paper on three reasons I'm now

1:43:05

bullish on Bitcoin got sent to them,

1:43:08

right? Um, uh, Andreas Antonopoulos's,

1:43:13

you know, what is Bitcoin got sent to

1:43:16

them. You know, lots of So, lots of

1:43:19

compulsory YouTube watching, guys. I'm

1:43:22

going to need you to watch these things

1:43:24

on YouTube. Then I'm going to need you

1:43:26

to read this. Then lots of individual

1:43:28

meetings, meet everybody. I'm going to

1:43:31

meet, you know, I'm lucky. I've got a

1:43:34

very intelligent board. I've got a very

1:43:38

engaged board. I've got a very a very

1:43:40

int, you know, I met with I met with my

1:43:43

general counsel and uh and I and I was

1:43:46

worried, you know, like general counsel

1:43:47

is going to tell you a million reasons

1:43:49

you can't do something. I said, "Well, I

1:43:50

you know, I think we should be thinking

1:43:52

about Bitcoin and I, you know, and this

1:43:53

and this and this and this and this and

1:43:54

this, you know, and I waited for him to

1:43:56

tell me no way in heck can we ever do

1:43:59

this ever." And he goes, "Yeah, that's a

1:44:02

very interesting thesis. Um, you know, I

1:44:05

bought Bitcoin two years ago.

1:44:09

Love it. You know, like I was like, I

1:44:12

got but but you know, so it turns out

1:44:14

that uh, you know, I talked with my with

1:44:17

my board and it turns out that half of

1:44:19

them had already invested in Bitcoin

1:44:21

personally. So that we went through this

1:44:25

round of study it, think about it,

1:44:27

evaluate all the options, meet as a

1:44:29

group, break. A after that, you know,

1:44:32

the CFO went off and he like he met with

1:44:35

our auditors and our our outside

1:44:38

auditors and and more auditors and the

1:44:40

NRGC met with attorneys and more

1:44:43

attorneys and more attorneys and our

1:44:44

outside attorney and uh then we started

1:44:47

sifting through all the, you know, all

1:44:49

of the regulatory filings of everybody

1:44:51

went, you know, I went down the rabbit

1:44:53

hole, they went down the rabbit hole

1:44:56

and, you know, and the board went down a

1:44:58

rabbit hole. we all came together and

1:45:01

and I'm just I'm really proud of the

1:45:03

team. But but at the same time, I'm I I

1:45:07

think uh I think it's it's important to

1:45:10

say that rational people if they're put

1:45:13

if this is put on the table and if

1:45:15

they're given enough time and the right

1:45:17

resources, they all unanimously

1:45:20

unanimously come to the same conclusion

1:45:24

that I come to. Right? No dispute, no

1:45:27

disscent. Everybody's gota got to be

1:45:30

part of the process. And you and you got

1:45:32

to give everybody time to absorb it. And

1:45:35

you got to do your due job. How do you

1:45:36

get the audit? How do you get the

1:45:37

auditors across the line? So you read

1:45:39

internal consensus. Fine. Okay. Now you

1:45:42

got to have the bloody auditors agree

1:45:44

that you can do this.

1:45:46

Okay. Well, the auditors uh give you the

1:45:50

feedback on how you're going to account

1:45:53

for it. Yeah. and that's their position

1:45:55

and um they're good at telling you how

1:45:58

to do that, right? And so we take their

1:46:00

advice and then at some point we talked

1:46:01

to lots of different auditors and I I I

1:46:04

do think that um that we're um we're

1:46:09

leading the way here like uh clearly in

1:46:12

fact it's news that we did this. It'll

1:46:15

be news when we uh when we put out our

1:46:18

10 Q's and if you want to see exactly

1:46:20

how it gets accounted for, people be

1:46:22

looking at the 10 Q's to figure out what

1:46:24

does that do the balance sheet and the

1:46:26

P&L and that's right. But let me but let

1:46:29

me make one point R which is you can run

1:46:31

your business in order to in order to

1:46:35

make your GAP accounting beautiful.

1:46:38

If you did that you would never issue a

1:46:40

stock option. And if you look at every

1:46:42

successful tech company, they they have

1:46:45

uh stock option expenses and and and

1:46:48

every screaming success, you know,

1:46:50

Facebook comes public and there's huge

1:46:53

amounts of stock options that they've

1:46:55

issued and they take non-cash charges

1:46:57

for them. So the result is most public

1:47:00

companies have pro-forma results and

1:47:02

they have after adjustments.

1:47:05

There are mega adjustments based on

1:47:06

currency fluctuations and all sorts of

1:47:09

non-cash intangible things and the

1:47:13

investment community looks at those and

1:47:14

generally they focus more on the as

1:47:17

adjusted you know proformas as long as

1:47:20

you explain what it is then people don't

1:47:21

care because gap because gap doesn't

1:47:24

necessarily keep up with the reality of

1:47:25

the business.

1:47:27

Like for example, if I told you, you

1:47:29

know, would you buy a company that's

1:47:31

going to go up in value by a factor of

1:47:33

10 if it had a if it printed a gap loss

1:47:35

or would you not? And also the other

1:47:38

thing is is you told me before that the

1:47:40

investors valued you cash at zero. So

1:47:43

what the hell you got to lose? If you

1:47:45

say well it's a nonzero asset now and

1:47:48

whether it's whether or whether it's not

1:47:50

including your gap accounting it's like

1:47:52

well you wrote it off to zero anyway. So

1:47:54

now you can either value it as a option

1:47:56

or not. Yeah. Let's say if we buy

1:47:58

Bitcoin and it gets valued as an

1:48:01

intangible and then we're forced to

1:48:03

write it down to down based upon the

1:48:06

volatility. You know, it could happen.

1:48:08

We could buy we could buy a bunch of

1:48:10

Bitcoin. It could be written down by

1:48:11

50%. Then you have you have a a gap

1:48:15

right down and intangibly it carries an

1:48:18

intangible on your balance sheet. On the

1:48:20

other hand, if the value of Bitcoin

1:48:22

doubles, if you have a billion dollars

1:48:24

of Bitcoin, right, and the gap the gap

1:48:28

accounting says you're only showing 200

1:48:30

million, the investors are going to look

1:48:31

at that. They're rational. Yeah. I mean,

1:48:34

by the way, they're the investors are

1:48:36

rational and they normally will they

1:48:39

will understand that you have a billion

1:48:40

dollars worth of something even though

1:48:42

GAP accounting doesn't want let you uh

1:48:45

market as a billion dollars. But if the

1:48:48

market is irrational over the long term,

1:48:51

you sell some of the Bitcoin, buy all

1:48:53

your stock back, right? In fact, in the

1:48:56

extreme, if you have if you have 10

1:48:59

billion if your net asset value is worth

1:49:01

more than the value of the company

1:49:02

outstanding, you buy your shares, you

1:49:04

buy the company. At the end of the day,

1:49:06

if the Bitcoin is worth 10 billion and

1:49:08

then and then the accounting says it's

1:49:10

worth zero and if the investors insist

1:49:12

upon looking at the zero accounting and

1:49:14

they value you at nothing, you buy you

1:49:16

buy every single share of the stock back

1:49:18

and you got a private company with nine

1:49:20

billion dollars worth of Bitcoin in it.

1:49:22

Right? But there's a point to what I'm

1:49:24

saying, which is you can't run a

1:49:27

business in order to make to make the

1:49:29

GAP accounting optically look perfect.

1:49:32

If you did that, you wouldn't be in any

1:49:34

business that that outstrips the rate of

1:49:37

of accountants that have a 30-year lag.

1:49:39

Yeah. And also, just the point being is

1:49:43

is you have a reputation. The firm's

1:49:46

been existence for a long time. As long

1:49:47

as you can explain to people what you're

1:49:49

doing, nobody cares. They either like it

1:49:51

or they don't. That's what shareholding

1:49:52

is. And that's okay. I think I think we

1:49:56

have an obligation to be as clear and

1:49:59

articulate and respectful to our

1:50:02

shareholders as we possibly can be. And

1:50:05

if you look at what we've done over the

1:50:07

past three months, we have tried to be

1:50:10

extraordinarily

1:50:11

transparent and methodic. You know,

1:50:14

first we say we think we've got a, you

1:50:16

know, a treasury issue and we we need to

1:50:19

either buy our shares back or invest our

1:50:22

shares or sorry, we need to buy our

1:50:23

shares back or invest our treasury. Then

1:50:25

we said, "We've done the analysis and

1:50:28

and we're going to do a $250 million

1:50:30

tender and we're going to do $250

1:50:33

million investment or done it in

1:50:34

Bitcoin." Then we let the investors

1:50:37

decide what they want to do. That's

1:50:39

their choice, right? And then the

1:50:41

investors decide to tender some of their

1:50:43

shares and we buy some of those shares

1:50:46

and we have some extra cash. Then we

1:50:48

take the extra cash and then we tell you

1:50:51

know we tell the market it looks like we

1:50:53

have some extra cash by the way our

1:50:57

treasury policy is to invest in Bitcoin

1:51:01

then we invest in Bitcoin right and uh

1:51:04

and if anybody if anybody's holding the

1:51:07

stock right it's just very important for

1:51:09

them that they understand what's going

1:51:10

on and I I can't tell you how to think

1:51:13

about this right but by the way it's

1:51:15

like you know you would hear rumors

1:51:17

like, "Oh, I don't think investor will

1:51:19

like it." So, we went we met with all

1:51:21

the investors, you know, it's like 80%

1:51:24

of investors go, "Yeah, that's a

1:51:25

probably that's kind of a good idea, you

1:51:27

know, that's kind of interesting,

1:51:28

right?" Right? And and uh so, and then

1:51:31

they're like they go to me, well, this

1:51:33

one investor, he was kind of concerned

1:51:35

about it and he had a problem with it.

1:51:37

You know, I met with him, he goes,

1:51:38

"Well, why don't you just like uh buy

1:51:40

back all the stock?" I said um I said

1:51:43

well you know that the issue is we would

1:51:45

decapize the company if we buy back all

1:51:47

the stock we'll have no treasury assets

1:51:49

and if we have no treasury assets no

1:51:51

capital then that puts our customers at

1:51:54

risk and so you know I have to be able

1:51:57

to my customers are governments banks

1:52:01

big organizations I need to be able to

1:52:04

represent to them that for the next 30

1:52:06

years they can count on me so I can't

1:52:09

like drain the entire assets the

1:52:11

company, you know, even though, you

1:52:14

know, and and that's the problem with

1:52:15

just buying with draining a treasury. I

1:52:18

have to have a a treasury balance. And

1:52:20

so then I proceeded to explain the

1:52:22

Bitcoin thesis to him. He cuts me off

1:52:25

halfway through and he goes, "Oh, yeah,

1:52:26

I get it. I own Bitcoin."

1:52:29

Okay. So, so the point is this is an

1:52:32

example somewhere everybody's really

1:52:33

afraid. Everybody says, "Oh, that's a

1:52:35

really ballsy, risky, you know, they're

1:52:38

all long themselves.

1:52:40

along Bitcoin. It's the same in the

1:52:42

hedge fund world. Paul Tudtor Jones

1:52:43

goes, you know, you're the Paul Tudtor

1:52:45

Jones of the of the corporate world.

1:52:46

Paul was the first guy to stand up and

1:52:48

go, well, I've bought Bitcoin in my

1:52:49

fund. Well, guess what? Every bloody

1:52:52

fund manager I know owns some Bitcoin

1:52:55

already. And you know, not to beat up on

1:52:57

Paul Tutor Jones if he's listening, but

1:53:00

Paul, like if you believe in it, buying

1:53:05

but 1% is like I go to Vegas and I want

1:53:09

to I'm the rich guy that goes to Vegas

1:53:11

with my friends and I want to convince

1:53:13

them I'm cool. And I go, "Yeah, I really

1:53:15

get gambling. I really believe in

1:53:17

gambling." So I take out $100,000. I put

1:53:19

on a table. I pay blackjack for a few

1:53:21

hours and I impress my my friends that

1:53:24

I'm really cool. That's that's one view.

1:53:27

On the other hand,

1:53:29

if you're really a baller, you're Howard

1:53:33

Hughes. He went to Vegas.

1:53:36

Howard Hughes bought Vegas. Right. If

1:53:39

you really believe in gambling, if you

1:53:40

get gambling, you don't gamble $100,000

1:53:44

or 1% of your wealth in Vegas. Yeah, but

1:53:46

you buy the casino. Yeah, but Paul

1:53:49

doesn't care. He's rich enough. So for

1:53:52

him, and again, whatever he says and

1:53:55

does are two different things. I know

1:53:56

him very well from the past. And Paul

1:54:00

can move his positions on a dime. We've

1:54:03

seen him be, you know, three or four

1:54:05

times levered. You know, the guy knows

1:54:08

what he's doing. So even if he says 1%,

1:54:10

that was that snapshot of that afternoon

1:54:12

that he finished that note. It could be

1:54:14

anything. Okay. And you know, and I and

1:54:17

I notice like the hedge fund guys, they

1:54:19

either say the opposite of what they're

1:54:20

doing or they say or they talk their

1:54:23

book. And it's amusing to do that, but I

1:54:27

mean to to state what I what I think is

1:54:30

pretty obvious. Once you understand

1:54:33

Bitcoin,

1:54:35

right, you're you you have anxiety about

1:54:37

being short. Once you understand it,

1:54:40

completely terrified of being not having

1:54:43

enough. And if that's the case, then if

1:54:46

you're running10 billion dollars of

1:54:48

money,

1:54:50

you go take one or two billion dollars

1:54:52

of it or three or you just buy it all.

1:54:57

Like I I mean, don't you sit around? I

1:54:59

sit around. I'm think I'm trading this

1:55:02

Bitcoin, Ral, and and to buy this much,

1:55:05

you can't buy it in a minute or an hour.

1:55:08

You can't even buy it in a day. I'm when

1:55:10

I'm in the market, I'm buying Bitcoin

1:55:12

four days in a row every minute. Are you

1:55:15

doing it yourself? You haven't given it

1:55:17

to anybody else. I gota I I control it

1:55:20

all. But yeah, I I Yeah, take if it's

1:55:24

worth doing, do it yourself. So, here's

1:55:27

Look, I want to ask you two questions.

1:55:29

Yeah, questions. The practicalities,

1:55:31

right? So, there is the the terrifying

1:55:34

moment when you transfer your Bitcoin

1:55:37

from the exchange

1:55:39

to your hard wallet and you're like,

1:55:42

"Fuck, I hope I put in the right

1:55:44

numbers." Because there is nobody I can

1:55:46

call up at the bank say, "Oh, I made a

1:55:47

mistake in the transfer." Did you not

1:55:50

get the terror of doing that? And how do

1:55:53

you store it? Okay. Well, so a couple of

1:55:57

points I'll make. one one point I can't

1:56:00

give you too much details about about

1:56:04

how we do it and how we handle our

1:56:06

crypto just for security reasons

1:56:07

obviously right I mean in private off

1:56:11

the record we talk about it but in

1:56:13

public I can't um generally our approach

1:56:16

is is to work with institutional grade

1:56:19

crypto exchanges and institutional grade

1:56:21

crypto custodians

1:56:23

and and then like handling nitroglycerin

1:56:26

handle it very carefully Right. I handle

1:56:29

my crypto very carefully. And that means

1:56:31

that before I, you know, we're

1:56:33

whitelisting everything every which way

1:56:35

and I'm moving 0.01 Bitcoin before I

1:56:38

move anything material, right? And you

1:56:42

know, like you know, the first time it

1:56:44

took me like 60 minutes or 90 minutes to

1:56:46

get a confirm, man. I was like, you

1:56:49

know, I'm working on it. But let me make

1:56:51

the next point, which is if you wanna if

1:56:54

you want to trade this stuff, you need a

1:56:56

great team of of like over-the-counter

1:56:59

uh brokers you work with, and they have

1:57:01

to have great technology because you're

1:57:03

going to buy this thing in 89,000

1:57:06

small bites of 0.2 Bitcoin each. If I'm

1:57:10

in the market, you don't know I'm in the

1:57:11

market, right? Like I I get a a laugh

1:57:14

when I watch people come in and hammer

1:57:15

the price up by a hundred bucks and and

1:57:18

people are thinking, "Is that some

1:57:19

whale?

1:57:20

Is that Well, if you wanted to buy a

1:57:22

hund00 million of it, there's no way

1:57:24

you're chasing it up a hundred bucks.

1:57:27

So, I'm waiting for someone to panic at

1:57:30

which point I'm going to buy $10 million

1:57:33

in one minute why they think they're

1:57:34

getting the better of me. Right? That's

1:57:36

the way you're going to do that. And

1:57:38

then my last point is while I'm sitting

1:57:41

there for all those days and I'm trading

1:57:43

this stuff and I'm like day and night,

1:57:47

right? day and night trading it.

1:57:49

Everybody thinks, "Well, Bitcoin's too

1:57:50

volatile." When people like me or these

1:57:53

other institutions get into it, we've

1:57:56

got computer programs that are trying to

1:57:58

buy it every minute of the day, day and

1:57:59

night, and pretty soon there'll be one

1:58:02

set of computer programs talking another

1:58:04

set of computer programs. There's no

1:58:06

people involved,

1:58:08

right? There's no people involved. And

1:58:09

the volatility is collapsing, right?

1:58:12

It's already collapsing. Anybody that's

1:58:14

watched this stuff over the past three

1:58:15

months, you would see the volatility is

1:58:17

coming in. The other day I'm watching

1:58:19

it. Bitcoin's less volatile than Apple.

1:58:21

It's definitely less volatile than it's

1:58:23

less volatile than Amazon, less volatile

1:58:25

than all the big tech companies. That's

1:58:28

a story. My last point, it's like,

1:58:31

who are these people that are selling it

1:58:33

to me? Like, I can't believe someone is

1:58:36

willing to sell it to me. But I'm I'm

1:58:38

thanking my lucky stars. I'm like, hit

1:58:41

me again. Hit me again. Hit me again.

1:58:45

Right. And I see these guys on crypto

1:58:47

Twitter and they're like, "Yeah,

1:58:50

Sailor's gonna buy it, then he's gonna

1:58:51

dump it or he's gonna buy it. He's gonna

1:58:53

like buy another company with it." I'm

1:58:55

like, "He's going to buy it until he

1:58:57

gets like this profit. He's going to do

1:58:59

whatever." I'm like, they don't really

1:59:01

There's a lot of traders in the market.

1:59:03

They don't understand the mindset of

1:59:05

longs. Like I'm buying it for the dude

1:59:09

that's going to work for the dude that's

1:59:11

going to get hired by the guy that takes

1:59:13

over my job in a hundred years.

1:59:17

I'm not selling it. Right. When it when

1:59:19

it goes up by a factor of a hundred, I

1:59:22

might be borrowing a little a little to

1:59:25

go buy something that I want, but this

1:59:28

is what am I going to buy with it,

1:59:32

right? That's better than what I'm

1:59:34

buying, right? every other treasury

1:59:36

asset. And I count $250 trillion worth

1:59:40

of stuff. This is not about gold, right?

1:59:43

Gold, fixed income, sovereign debt, cash

1:59:47

equivalents, every other treasury asset.

1:59:49

It's got a negative real yield.

1:59:52

What am I going to buy with it? No,

1:59:54

there's no other asset to buy with it.

1:59:56

And that's why I got into the

1:59:58

irresponsibly long thing. In the end, I

2:00:00

just looked at everything and said,

2:00:01

"Right, fine. You can trade around, do

2:00:02

stuff, but if there's anything you

2:00:03

actually want to put a real position in

2:00:05

for an extended period of time that

2:00:07

there is only one thing I can really

2:00:09

see. You know, I've got gold in a

2:00:11

storage vault and I'm like, I can't see

2:00:14

the point. And you're tipping me over

2:00:17

the edge of saying I can't see the

2:00:18

point. I like gold. I have no problem

2:00:20

with it. You know, I'm not going to hold

2:00:21

it for 100 years, so I don't really

2:00:23

care. But I kind of like Bitcoin's going

2:00:25

to swallow the world. If I told you gold

2:00:28

has a has a minus

2:00:31

it's got a minus 3% real yield. Yeah,

2:00:34

but you know I don't mind because I'm

2:00:37

likely only to hold gold three years.

2:00:39

I'm not you know Bitcoin's different for

2:00:42

me. Gold for three years through this

2:00:44

particular transition phase. So maybe it

2:00:46

goes up 100% and I lose 10% in in uh

2:00:50

negative real yield. That's okay to me

2:00:54

in that time horizon. I I think that um

2:00:57

and this is where time horizon matters

2:00:59

so much. If your time horizon is 12

2:01:02

months and you guys you you're a hedge

2:01:05

fund guy, you're like, you know, you're

2:01:06

like looking at like the volatility

2:01:09

curve wave, right? You guys are trading

2:01:12

gamma and stuff like that, which like I

2:01:15

can't even I got degrees from MIT and I

2:01:18

can't figure out gamma yet. So, I need a

2:01:21

speech on that. But you're living in the

2:01:23

world of like minutes to days to weeks

2:01:25

to months to years. Let's say when you

2:01:28

go out more than a decade.

2:01:30

If you go out more than a decade, all

2:01:32

this stuff, all the noise drops away.

2:01:34

Everything gets really clear. Totally

2:01:36

agree. Totally. And when you come in

2:01:38

less than five years, there's a lot of

2:01:41

different options you got to consider.

2:01:42

So the real question is what's your time

2:01:44

horizon here? Yeah, 100% agree. And you

2:01:47

know, and that's exactly what the

2:01:49

conclusion. But for me, why I'm so

2:01:53

interested now of all time, you know,

2:01:56

really intensely focused is across

2:01:58

almost every single time horizon, it now

2:02:01

looks superior. That won't always be the

2:02:02

case. There'll be a time when whether

2:02:05

it's technology, stocks, whatever it is,

2:02:07

will outperform Bitcoin. But when I look

2:02:09

at almost every time horizon, you know,

2:02:12

going from a month, that would be the

2:02:14

shortest I'd look at. A month out to a

2:02:16

hundred years, Bitcoin looks like it's

2:02:19

going to be everything for the time

2:02:20

being. Great. That's a home run

2:02:21

opportunity. So, Ral, that makes the

2:02:23

decision easy. Yeah, I need some gold.

2:02:26

And and that's why I think if you're

2:02:29

really a hedge fund person and you

2:02:31

really get Bitcoin and the decision's so

2:02:33

easy, are you really going to tell me

2:02:35

you've decided to take 1% and take a you

2:02:38

know and hedge and try it? Like if

2:02:41

anybody really gets Bitcoin, there's

2:02:43

nobody investing 1% of their portfolio

2:02:45

in it. No. No. Exactly. I I far and away

2:02:50

my biggest position by far and away and

2:02:53

almost, you know, a very significant

2:02:56

part of my liquid assets, you know,

2:02:59

outside my properties and shareholdings

2:03:01

and stuff, you know, in real vision or

2:03:03

whatever, you know, it's Bitcoin is the

2:03:05

bet. You know, I I said the other day, I

2:03:08

said, you know, for this this is not a

2:03:12

speculation,

2:03:13

nor is it a hedge.

2:03:16

This is a deliberate corporate strategy

2:03:20

to adopt the Bitcoin standard. That's

2:03:23

what we're doing, right? And and and I

2:03:26

think that lots of people want to

2:03:28

minimalize what's going on here or

2:03:30

they're afraid. They're in fear to

2:03:33

actually come out and say what they

2:03:34

believe. Mike, they don't understand

2:03:36

yet. People are It's like, as you know,

2:03:39

you suddenly get to that point where

2:03:40

it's like, "Oh, Christ, I get it now."

2:03:43

You kind of think you get it for a

2:03:44

while, then you question yourself, then

2:03:47

you sort of get it, then you realize you

2:03:49

know nothing and then you come to the

2:03:50

epiphany is not knowing anything about

2:03:53

it apart from one core set of things

2:03:55

that this is superior to anything else

2:03:56

around it and it could be an entire

2:03:58

ecosystem, a whole structure. That's all

2:04:01

you need to know. After that, it's like,

2:04:02

okay, I got hard money with upside.

2:04:05

Brilliant.

2:04:06

And now, so now we're sitting here

2:04:08

waiting to see how long it's going to

2:04:09

take for all the other rational actors

2:04:11

in the world to come to the same

2:04:13

conclusion. Exactly. Right. And I, you

2:04:15

know, that's that's the journey. You

2:04:17

know, we're launching this crypto

2:04:19

channel on Real Vision. It's part of the

2:04:20

same bet. I know where this is all

2:04:22

going. And I've been talking about this

2:04:23

in 2012.

2:04:26

And I knew that macro and crypto were

2:04:27

about to collide. And I knew it was

2:04:29

going to happen in the next recession or

2:04:30

I didn't I guessed it would. And here we

2:04:33

are. And then what's happened is you've

2:04:36

actually moved it on further by saying,

2:04:38

okay, it's not just about markets and

2:04:41

investments and everything else. We're

2:04:42

now talking about a new standard that

2:04:44

becomes

2:04:46

the new gold standard, i.e. corporations

2:04:49

around the world, Apple with their

2:04:51

balance sheet and everybody else should

2:04:53

think of this as a reserve asset, which

2:04:55

was my point that I've been talking

2:04:56

about is this is the world's most

2:04:58

pristine reserve asset. And that's what

2:04:59

you're doing. You bought a reserve asset

2:05:01

and put it on your balance sheet.

2:05:03

Brilliant. Imagine a CEO of a

2:05:05

construction company that said, "We

2:05:07

thought we'd start building buildings

2:05:09

with steel this year and every other

2:05:13

construction company saying, "Oh, what a

2:05:15

risky thing.

2:05:17

That's too expensive as well." And all

2:05:19

the other arguments that you would have

2:05:20

had, we've not tested it in earthquakes

2:05:23

or whatever it is. I think we've covered

2:05:25

a lot of ground and I think we'll

2:05:26

probably have another conversation down

2:05:28

the track because there's a load of

2:05:30

things. I love the philosophical things

2:05:31

that you're thinking about and just also

2:05:34

your you know how you've observed the

2:05:35

tech industry and everything else. So

2:05:37

I'm definitely going to get back in

2:05:38

touch with you again and we'll as your

2:05:41

thinking evolves and as other people's

2:05:42

thinking evolve it's it's just nice

2:05:44

because you're outside of the noise of a

2:05:45

lot of the financial market stuff and

2:05:47

you're looking at differently and it's

2:05:48

brilliant and just look bravo you that

2:05:51

as you said it's a logical conclusion

2:05:52

but most people haven't reached it yet

2:05:53

and you've done something really

2:05:55

inspiring for a lot of people. Well, I

2:05:57

like I would return the a compliment

2:06:00

though and point out that that I was

2:06:02

obsessing over everything that you

2:06:04

published before we made this decision.

2:06:07

And so, so the truth is you're more that

2:06:10

you and and the entire crypto community

2:06:13

that went out there especially on

2:06:15

YouTube and published everything.

2:06:17

They're the inspiration and and it's a

2:06:19

wonderful community and there's you can

2:06:21

learn a lot on YouTube. So, so if people

2:06:25

ever wonder, does anybody listen to the

2:06:27

stuff we say? The answer is yeah, I

2:06:30

listen. Everybody, every one of my board

2:06:32

members listened, right? So, so we

2:06:35

wouldn't be here, I wouldn't be here

2:06:37

talking to you, nor would I have done

2:06:39

anything had you not said what you said

2:06:42

when you said it. That's very welcome

2:06:45

the opportunity in the future. Thanks

2:06:47

for having me. But yes, I loved it. I

2:06:49

reached out on Twitter. I said, "Listen,

2:06:50

I'd love to tell your story." He like

2:06:51

and he replied, "I love Real Vision."

2:06:54

And that's great. We're all doing we're

2:06:56

all doing the right thing, spreading the

2:06:58

word, Mike. Brilliant to speak to you.

2:07:01

Thank you ever so much for your time.

2:07:02

I'm sure people are going to get a lot

2:07:03

out of this. Thank you, Ralph. Hey, Real

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