Strategy's Stride STRD Perpetual Preferred Stock IPO Backed by Bitcoin | Michael Saylor and Phong Le
Strategy · 2025-06-03 · 50m · View on YouTube →
Hello and thank you for your
consideration of strategy's announced
perpetual stride preferred stock.
Joining us from strategy is executive
chairman Michael Sailor and chief
executive officer Fong
Lee. Here you will find a summary of key
terms for the stride offering. Should
you have further questions, please reach
out to your representative at Barclays
Morgan Stanley TD or Mullis. With that,
I will turn over to Fong to begin the
presentation. Thank you, Matt. Thank you
everyone for joining our webinar today
and watching this recording. Uh we are
launching uh Stride the third of our
preferred offerings. Uh and we're doing
it in a very strong market environment.
As you can see here, strike since launch
uh at $80 has increased
29% in a period of about uh 4 months and
strife since launch has increased 22%
since launch. This is in comparison to
6.1% during the same time period as
strike for other preferreds and negative
4.6% for other preferred during the same
period as strife. So I think it's a
great market environment to be launching
our third uh perpetual preferred
offering. Uh especially if you look at
the last month uh we have seen both of
the perpetual preferred strike and
strife perform up 13% and 15%. Uh so
strong last month for each of these
offerings. Also, if you take a step back
and look at uh our annualized asset
performance of MSTR, uh we've seen 103%
returns over the last four years. That's
uh essentially double or almost double
the returns of Bitcoin, quadruple the
returns of the MAG sub uh and nearly 10
times the return of both the S&P 500 and
gold.
If you take a look at us uh over that
same period of time since the beginning
of the Bitcoin standard era uh we've
outperformed all major assets uh the big
tech uh the uh all assets against the
S&P 500 also
2885% returns since the beginning uh
when we adopted our Bitcoin strategy and
and one other view over the last three
months uh with a lot of change and
turbulence in the macroeconomic
environment and global markets
We've seen Micro Strategy uh beating
again the entire U Magnificent 7 and
many of the other indexes uh that we
compare ourselves to. Our convertible
bonds uh since we've issued them have
also performed well. In fact uh on a
blended basis have returned 65% which is
uh slightly better than the returns of
Bitcoin during that same period 59%.
And overall across uh multiple different
metrics that we measure ourselves uh
annualized return were number one versus
the S&P 500 in the options market uh
also number one uh against uh IBIT anus
crypto complex. We mentioned before the
Bitcoin standard error return 2885%.
We're the number two most volatile stock
against the S&P 500. Number six in terms
of open interest uh against all of the
stocks in the S&P 500. And when compared
to uh take our open interest as a
percentage of our market cap, we're
number one again versus the S&P 500. Uh
we're the largest corp holder of Bitcoin
in the world with $61 billion in Bitcoin
net asset value and our trading volume
compared to the S&P 500 we are number 10
uh against the S&P 500 and if you take a
look at that trading volume as a
percentage of our market cap 6% that
takes us up to number
three. So, we recently announced our
4242 billion uh capital plan and we're
happy to say that we're 36% complete on
that, 56% through our equity plan, $23.4
billion issued uh since we announced
this plan in October of 2024 and 16%
through our fixed income plan. And
that's what part of the reason we're
launching stride is on the strength of
strife and strike and to be able to
approach uh the target of the $42
billion. We think strife is uh quite
important. Uh another thing note is we
launched ATMs at the market uh uh
offerings for both Strike and Strife.
And to date uh we have raised $316
million in Strike for $9 million in a
short period of time of Strife. And so
we believe that there's uh enough
liquidity in the fixed income market uh
and in strike and strife that there's uh
this is an appropriate time to launch
stride and our intention is uh once uh
after we IPO stride we'll also at the
appropriate time launch an ATM on
stride.
Also, if you look at our year-to-ate
performance uh on BTC yield percentage
and BTC dollar gain, two KPIs that we
measure ourselves against, uh we
recently updated our BTC yield target to
25%. And year to date, uh nearly halfway
through the year, uh we're at 16.9%
uh BTC yield. uh the BTC dollar gain. We
have a $15 billion target. Uh and we're
also more than halfway through at $8
billion uh compared to our target of $15
billion uh nearly halfway through the
year. Uh in terms of our our current
debt structure and our coverage on that
debt, we have about $61 billion of total
Bitcoin asset value and $5 billion of
convertible debt that is currently out
of the money. Uh and so when we look at
it from that point of view, $61 billion
of Bitcoin net asset value and $5
billion of other money converts, we are
are well covered 12x coverage on that.
The other question we often get is is
what about the dividends? How do how do
we pay the dividends and what is the
ability to have coverage on the
dividends from our uh current uh stride
uh current strike and strife perpetual
uh preferred offerings. And as we add
stride to the complex, how does this
look? Well, if you take the same $61
billion of Bitcoin asset value, take
away the $5 billion uh of out of the
money converts, that's about $56 billion
of coverage. And with the needs that we
currently have in terms of of covering
the dividends for strides for strike
strike and eventually stride, we have
290 years of dividends uh that we can
pay using the Bitcoin that we have. Uh
and if Bitcoin was to decline by 75%, we
still have 37 years of preferred
dividend coverage using our Bitcoin
asset value. So we we think we have uh a
lot of coverage for uh the dividends and
potential dividends of our perpetual
preferred offerings. If you look at at
our total uh capital structure, I
mentioned the $61 billion uh of Bitcoin
value. That's one way to look at it. And
and looking at our uh complete debt
complex, uh you can see here uh we have
50 billion of that that that is
essentially unencumbered uh by any of
our debt. the entire $61 billion
unencumbered. But if you take out the
debt that we have, we still have 50
billion remaining. You look at it from
an equity perspective, currently our
market capitalization is about $112
billion. And taking away again the $10
billion or so debt, we still have $102
billion of equity uh to to cover uh uh
the debt that we have on hand. Uh the
final point I'll make or or the next
final point I'll make is is our
convertible bet, right? and and the risk
profile that the convertible debt uh
provides. And what I'll mention here uh
that I want to point out is that the $
8.2 billion convertible debt uh first of
all, some of it is fairly longdated all
the way out to 2032, which is 7 years
from now. Uh and secondly I'll point out
is the interest on the convertible debt
is really now 0.421%
421% uh on a weighted uh basis is our
average uh annual fixed interest rate
that we have for convertible debt.
Uh last thing is is you know a lot of
folks ask well how do we think about
what Bitcoin price uh might approach and
so what we have here is we've assembled
a view of all of our uh analysts uh and
what they uh project for Bitcoin price
in their different models right and you
can see here the average price
projection for 2025 is $161,000
uh 50% up from where we are today and as
you look out to 2026 225,000 the
three-year projections
257,000 and uh even one of our analysts
Bernstein looks uh at this 8 years out
2033
uh million Bitcoin price. So those are
some reference points that folks can
think about when they consider investing
in Stride uh and what might uh become of
Bitcoin and what might become of of
MSTR. Uh so with that I'm going to hand
it over to Mike who will go into more
detail uh with our new offering
Stride. I'm very excited to introduce
Stride to all of you today. Stride
represents our third preferred stock
that we have brought to the market so
far this
year. Stride is a preferred stock that
will yield 10% uh perpetual
non-cumulative dividend. It's a
quarterly cash dividend. It's nonallable
for life. It's going to be backed by
about sixx Bitcoin collateral coverage
at the current Bitcoin price. So, what
we refer to as a BTC rating of
six. Why are we bringing Stride to
market? Well, we're building out the
yield curve for Bitcoin back credit
instruments.
So, Strife is our senior perpetual
preferred and and uh for a Bitcoin
believer in Bitcoin back credit
instruments then Strife is is meant to
be something similar to an investment
grade. It will be it'll be the crown
jewel of our preferred stack and uh and
our aim is for Bitcoin credit investors
to view that as investment grade and
we'll work to overcolateralize that and
uh and to make sure that that is always
senior to every other uh preferred
instrument we bring to market.
Um, strike of course is a convertible
preferred. So it's partly uh dividend
bearing and partly it has a conversion
rate to MSTR common. Um, stride is
really targeted at the high yield
market. It's our high yield credit
instrument. And if you look at it on uh
this slide, you can see that uh one of
the benefits of stride is we expect it
to yield more than strife. We expect it
to be the highest yielding of the
preferred uh equities that we offer to
the market. Um and uh we also expect it
to be very long duration. So you can see
compared to uh high yield loans or high
yield bonds, this will be a longer
duration instrument because it's
perpetual with no call. And um compared
to strike or to strife, it should be a
higher yielding preferred instrument.
And of course, you could find um a long
duration US Treasury bond like a 30-year
Treasury bond, but our goal is to offer
a combination of long duration and high
yield for credit investors that are
looking for
that. If we look at it um charted
seniority versus volatility, you can see
our most senior instrument in our
capital structure is strife. And then
you can see the max next most senior
will be strike and then stride will be
third and then the and then of course
the junior uh security is our common
equity and of course on a volatility
curve we've constructed um the capital
structure so that our common equity is
going to be the most volatile. Uh and
that's important because people want to
build derivatives and options and the
like off of that volatile instrument. Uh
strike should be the second most
volatile. It has proven to be somewhat
less volatile than the equity but more
volatile than strife uh over the last
few months. Um we expect strife to be
the least volatile because it is senior
in the capital structure. it's the most
senior uh instrument uh and we would
think that stride will probably be
somewhat more volatile. Now, we can't be
quite sure about this uh until after
we've observed it in the market for some
amount of time. uh you know it's
possible that strife will become a a
much longer duration instrument and
there'll be volatility in the uh
interest rate markets in which case uh
that might actually have a bigger impact
on strife than stride but uh we also
think that um the impact of bitcoin
moving around will impact the credit
spreads and the and the expected risk of
all these instruments and that that
might have a greater impact on stride
than strife.
So this is this is our outlook right
now. Uh the one thing that uh that's
really important though just to observe
is that strife is senior, strike is
junior to strife, stride is junior to uh
to strike and MSTR is junior to all
three of these instruments.
Um here's a table that shows the three
instruments and and what you can see is
that so far we've uh we've got
outstanding notional uh a billion and 69
million of strike. Uh we've got about
899 million of notional strife
outstanding. This offering is targeted
to start with a $250 million uh notional
amount. Um the all three of these will
be listed are listed on NASDAQ. Strike
and strife were already already trading.
Stride should trade similar uh on NASDAQ
uh with the STRD ticker. Um they've all
got the same duration. You can see uh
the dividend of Stride is 10% par just
like Strife.
The primary difference is where strife
is cumulative, stride is
non-cumulative and uh where strife is uh
senior, stride will be junior. That
means uh strife will have the uh higher
BTC rating at all times. Stride will
have a lower BTC rating than strife and
strike. Uh, having said all that, a
5.9x BTC rating is a is a pretty large
amount of collateral coverage, almost 6x
over
collateralized. And
um, you can see the comparison. Fong
showed performance. What's extraordinary
and and what you pick up here is that
both Strife and Strike have traded up
more than 20% since their IPOs in the
same time period. a difficult
macroeconomic environment where other
preferred stocks have have traded down
approximately
5%. Stride represents the fourth gear in
our BTC engine and of course the point
of our engine is to generate BTC torque
uh via surgical management of our ATMs
uh in every single trading day. So uh
the lowest gear in our engine is the
common equity and the second gear is uh
strike. Uh strife represents uh the
third gear sorry stride represents the
third gear and strife will be the fourth
gear over time. And uh you can see uh
we're doing daily rebalancing of each of
these ATMs. We as we rebalance the
parameters of the ATMs, we let them run
minute minute by minute programmatically
uh and then we tend to uh work to
synchronize our BTC acquisition as we
raise capital in the capital markets.
And uh these uh four gears they give us
the ability to continuously generate BTC
yield and BTC gain uh over time in all
manner of market conditions.
Sometimes all four of these uh gears
will be turning especially where if MNAV
is very high on the equity if uh if the
high yield markets are are very
accommodating if uh the more senior uh
credit me markets that we're positioning
strife in are accommodating and if
there's enthusiasm for convertible
preferred like strike we'll be selling
all four at the same time. Uh there'll
be periods when we won't be selling uh
or we won't be turning one of these
gears or two or three. Uh in extreme
circumstances, we might shut down the
entire engine and coast. But as a
practical matter, generally there's
probably one of one or more of these
gears that's going to be working and we
will be reacting to the capital markets
daily and minuteby minute as we operate
uh this BTC
machine. Um as you compare um these
instruments stride versus strife uh you
can see they're they're pretty similar
except that one is a senior and one is a
junior. You can see uh that the
effective yield of strife has fallen now
below 10%. because it is traded above
par. And you know, our our goal is with
Stride is just to create a higher
yielding instrument uh and one that will
appeal uh to investors that want the
higher yield. We would expect that as
the BTC rating of Strife increases uh
the credit spreads uh could improve and
we expect that as investors become more
comfortable for with our Bitcoin
collateral
uh then that will be beneficial and so
of course that's good uh over the long
run uh for our common equity. It gives
us a a more efficient mechanism and it
gives us a lower cost of capital, but
ultimately uh we'll have a lot more
flexibility to raise capital if we have
both of these instruments operating. Uh
if we weren't bringing Stride to market
if if this offering was simply a
secondary offering of Strife, we would
be um we would be undermining uh the
credit of Strife. And so probably the
effective yield would rather than
continue to climb it might be pressured
or held stable. So in fact we think we
think that it's better for the company
to allow the high yield stride at the
same time as as the senior strife. And
that gives us the ability to work uh
both ends of the yield curve at the same
time. Otherwise, there's not that much
difference between the two except for
the fact that u there's a cumulative
dividend right to strife and there are
enhanced governance features for strife
in the event that a dividend is missed.
Uh and those two things uh don't uh they
don't uh come along with
stride. This is a snapshot of our
capital structure and you can see uh
we've got the converts at the top of the
pyramid. their most senior with the
least risk. Uh then the crown jewel of
our preferred is strife. Uh we have
attached to it a $2.1 billion shelf
registration. Uh we expect uh to be very
judicious about how we uh exercise that
uh ATM. Um strike of course is is a
convertible preferred. So you have some
liquidation preferences. You have a
dividend and then you have a conversion
rate. Think of it as a Bitcoin
fellowship with a living stipend.
You know, for those who don't want the
volatility and uh and the leverage and
the common equity, this offers them the
chance to participate in the upside, but
uh with more principal protection and
and with that guaranteed uh dividend
stream or the constant dividend stream
that's that's uh geared at 8% of par.
Stride is our high yield instrument and
and um we're starting out uh with this
initial offering, but over time we're in
a position to put another ATM on it and
I would anticipate that at some point we
will attach a shelf registration and an
ATM to Stride.
Um then below Stride we have MSTR equity
and of course we have our BTC holdings.
Now if we think about how stride impacts
all parts of the capital
structure stride is improving the BTC
rating of the converts of strife and of
strike. So so the more stride that we
sell the more collateral there is uh for
those elements that are senior to it in
the capital structure. So in fact uh we
think that the market should perceive
that stride decreases the risk of the
convertible bonds decreases the risk of
strife decreases the risk of of strike.
It should be uh credit positive. Um if
we if we grow this enough uh it seems
like it would be a driver to the
compression of credit spreads of the
above three. And certainly our plan is
to improve the credit and improve the
performance of those three senior
instruments through delivering stride to
the market and growing uh growing the
stride um preferred equity base. Now if
you look below stride at the elements
that are junior to it, we think that
stride adds intelligent leverage to
MSTR.
Um, stride stride is a way for us to um
to raise additional capital uh without
diluting the common. So at it's quite
reasonable that stride could drive the
mnavs north. It could get us it could
get us to a higher mnav. Certainly our
plan is to use stride to drive the mnav
to two to three or to four or beyond.
And how would you do it? Well,
intelligent leverage and and the
intelligent leverage of stride is is uh
that we've got the leverage of a bond,
but the principle is not coming due. And
then of course we are incurring the
dividend obligation, but because it's
non-cumulative,
uh it's a much lower risk dividend uh
obligation than say a convertible bond.
a convertible bond principle does come
due and and whatever coupon is an
obligation and strife is much less uh
risky and much more intelligent leverage
than a bond because the principal
doesn't come due but the dividend is
cumulative and there are penalty
provisions and so it is a it is a more
risky uh uh form of leverage uh than
stride. stride uh gives us the ability
potentially to increase our leverage
ratio uh much higher than if we simply
relied on convertible bonds or strife.
And um if if strife does uh become or
emerge to be viewed as investment grade
then it'll be sitting at a very
different point in the yield curve and
it'll be uh it'll be in demand by a very
different set of credit investors and
stride will allow us to continue to
appeal to a different set of credit
investors uh even if stride does uh does
appreciate to investment grade credit
spreads.
Um, stride of course uh has another
impact on our equity. Um, when our when
the equity capital markets are strong,
Stride allows us to achieve a higher
MNAV. But uh when the equity capital
markets are weak, uh in the event that
say our MNAV is is less than two and
we're not enthusiastic about selling
equity, we could sell stride in order to
acquire Bitcoin until our MNAVs were to
appreciate to two, three, four, five. So
we can we can use stride in order to
support a much higher MNAV in lie of uh
using our equity ATM. Now in an extreme
case uh where the MNAV were to fall to
one or below one for the equity, Stride
gives us the option to actually sell
Stride and then buy our own stock back.
And so this is this is both uh an
intelligent form of leverage to drive up
the premium that our equity trades at
versus Bitco Bitcoin NAV and it's also a
a great defensive mechanism in case
there were an a market dislocation and
the common equity were trade below MNAV.
A very a straightforward strategy for us
to recover that would be to simply swap
the stride uh for the stride exposure
for the MSTR exposure um and capture you
know capture that difference. It's a
very easy way right uh for us to capture
uh the discount and monetize the
discount to the benefit of the common
stock shareholders when we trade below
MNAV in the same way that we monetize
the premium from time to time when we
trade uh at a substantial premium above
MNAV. And of course the last point worth
making is stride is very uh a creative
or or it's very bullish for BTC in
general because Stride is going to open
up a channel to the high yield markets
and that capital will flow from the high
yield markets uh into the Bitcoin
ecosystem and the more capital that
we're able to raise to buy Bitcoin uh
the more creative it is to Bitcoin and
the price of Bitcoin and of course that
feeds back to the value of our Bitcoin
assets which is uh beneficial to our
common equity, beneficial to the value
of the strike conversion rate and
beneficial uh to the BTC rating you know
and uh the collateral coverage for
stride for strike and for strife and of
course beneficial to the converts. So,
stride is an important part of the
capital uh pyramid and it and we view it
as being both accretive to all the major
elements of our capital structure but
also substantially derisking our capital
structure and and giving us one more
tool in our financial arsenal in order
to in order to either grow faster or to
fend off any short attack or or hostile
activist attack to manipulate our common
equity. Um here we can see the market
comparisons of preferred stocks. You can
see um preferred equity comparables
there. There's about $80 billion worth
of assets in these ETFs right now. on on
average preferred equities uh are
yielding 6 to 7%
uh and they've got a fee that ranges
anywhere from 40 basis points to 85
basis points. The high yield bond ETFs,
they generally have yields of seven to
eight
handle. And of course, uh the loan ETFs,
they have yields of seven or eight, they
all have fees. Of course, stride will
come without a fee. So, we're not going
to have a fee. And you know, assuming
that it comes at at or around par, it's
going to have a much higher yield than
any of these instruments. And so we're
we're optimistic about our opportunities
because they're already, as you can see,
tens of billions of dollars of capital
invested in instruments that uh that are
yielding substantially less with much
higher fees in the market
today. And as I said, Stride is uh
building on our ecosystem. And this
slide illustrates that strategy enables
a wide variety of securities all based
on
Bitcoin. If you want just uh baseline
Bitcoin exposure, you're going to buy
the spot Bitcoin ETFs like IBIT. Uh and
there's about $140 billion of spot
Bitcoin ETF in in the market worldwide
right now.
Um, our approach is we take advantage of
our Bitcoin reserves and we use them as
collateral in order to in order to
collateralize or back or provide
performance for a variety of securities.
uh our convertible bonds are providing
one sort of exposure with a credit
protection uh and a different uh flavor
of volatility, less volatility, more
credit protection. And as Fong showed,
the bonds are actually delivering upside
that is in excess of Bitcoin but with a
credit instrument.
Um, BMAX is an example of an ETF uh that
is buying those micro strategy or MSTR
back uh convertible bonds. Strike,
Stride, Strife, uh, they're all
intermediate in the capital structure.
If you want a convertible preferred
that's a slightly lower delta instrument
that's got a dividend, then you could
buy Strike. Stride will be our high
yield fixed preferred. Strife will be
our our senior, you know, targeted to be
investment grade uh fixed preferred. Um
and uh then you can see at the bottom of
this stack, you've got Misti, IMIST, and
MST. These are actually examples of ETFs
that are simply selling volatility.
They're they're attempting to generate
the highest possible yield, selling
volatility all the time. uh above MSTR
or MSTX, MSTU,
MSTZ. These are examples of 2X uh lever
derivatives. Uh they're they're they're
2x long MSTR or 2x short MSTR to provide
more volatility uh more performance. And
of course, if you want more than 2x, you
would go to the options market uh which
is uh quite substantial right now. Uh
what makes our company
unique is that we have this very liquid,
very volatile um reasonably well
understood, durable,
credible equ BTCbacked equity instrument
that is the MSTR common equity and it is
the core amino acid or a building block
for building these high volatility high
lever securities in the options markets
and the ETFs markets And it's also uh
the building block we use uh to create
uh convertible preferred uh or and to
generate income uh or to generate cash
flow to pay dividends for uh fixed
preferred like STRD or
STRF and um and so uh we have emerged as
unique in that way. Um I will emphasize
again uh what makes this possible is uh
our substantial Bitcoin reserves
580,955 BTC right now. Uh you know
there's a tendency to think well those
reserves aren't doing anything. Well
they're definitely doing something. Uh
the reserves are what collateralize the
preferreds. They collateralize the
bonds. uh the reserves are generating
the performance, they're generating the
volatility and the liquidity for the
common equity. So, we like their role in
that and our ability to um to issue uh
certain amounts of preferred. If if we
want to issue a uh a preferred stock
with a BTC rating of 10, then obviously
uh with $61 billion worth of Bitcoin,
you could see that we would be capped at
no more than $6
billion worth of that instrument,
assuming there was nothing senior to it.
So the size of our reserves will
ultimately control the amount and the
rate at which we can issue other
securities. And of course you know as
Bitcoin grows the value of the reserves
grow and that gives us more flexibility
with uh the issuance of our various
preferred
instruments and
um that
uh is has to be put in context versus
the entire rest of the S&P 500. Um as
you can see right now if you take the
S&P index and you uh extract the
financial services companies then
strategy is number 11 in terms of
treasury side. So we have uh grown
rapidly up the treasury stack. What is
unique about us not not just the rate at
which we're going our treasury and not
just the absolute size of the treasury.
What is unique is that our treasury is
is $61 billion of digital capital.
Right? We are
substantially all with
99.9% Bitcoin which means our treasury
has Bitcoin performance and our treasury
has Bitcoin
volatility and that means that we can
create this equity and these preferred
equities and we can absorb and either
damp or amplify
uh as we choose the uh volatility.
and the performance of BTC and that's
fairly unique and uh that makes us uh
positively polarized capital. We're
attracting capital at a fairly rapid
rate right now and we expect we'll
continue to climb up this treasury
ladder um you know in due course.
Slide 30 uh underscores our view toward
credit and credit risk and and so we
have created a metric called BTC risk.
BTC risk is the probability of being
under collateralized on a BTC basis over
a given time horizon. So if you use a
one-year time horizon in this case and
you know if you were 3x uh had a BTC
rating of three and v was 60 then you
could see there'd be a 6.29%
29% risk uh over you know at the end of
one year you would be under
collateralized you can see the risk
increases as the wall increases and the
risk
decreases as the BTC rating increases
and this you know makes sense if I have
$10 for every $1 of a liability then the
likelihood that BTC trades down 90
uh% is fairly low um you can see even at
a 70 that pops up on our chart here at
16 basis points. Um if you take this
structure, if you calculate BTC rating
and then you apply statistical modeling
and uh and then you then you apply the
duration of the credit instrument, uh
you can start to develop a very uh
specific uh precise BTC risk for every
credit instrument uh for every given
duration. And so you can see on this
slide, we've laid out the capital
structure of strategy as of March 16th,
2025. And um this is just before the
Strife launch. And um you can see for
the Bitcoin price at the time and a 50 V
and assuming you were a skeptic and you
assumed a 0% BTC ARR we calculated uh
the BTC risk of this entire structure
and we calculate the BTC credit of this
structure and you can see our our uh
securities range from a rating of 41 all
the way down to
4.6. Now let me fast forward uh to May
30th and this is the capital structure
today uh or as of this
deal. The BTC price has changed the
volatility input still 50%. Um the
outlook is still skeptical. We're
assuming 0% ARR over the next decade for
Bitcoin.
But you can see that uh the BTC risk
numbers fall dramatically for the bonds
um anywhere from 0 to 7%. And that means
the BTC credit numbers fall
dramatically. And of course you can
calculate the market credit spread that
is how are the bonds priced right now
and then you can calculate the premium
and you can see that in some cases there
are large premiums um you know in some
cases there are small premiums. So uh
the market sets the price. Um this model
implies a certain BTC credit. Um and if
you believe the model then there's a
spread premium. And of course you can
calculate the same thing for strife and
for strike. And um uh the most important
observation from this page is that all
of these instruments trade with a spread
premium. That is to say, the BTC credit
uh is lower than the market credit
spread. And that means the market
doesn't uh doesn't appreciate Bitcoin as
collateral the way that you might if you
embrace this BTC statistical
model. Now, if you're a Bitcoin
maximalist
uh and you believe that Bitcoin was
going to appreciate 30% a year,
ARR, that changes your view of risk uh
dramatically because you can see even
plugging in the same volatility and the
same Bitcoin price, if your outlook is
bullish, then the risk of all the bonds
collapses to less than 1% collapses to
0% rounded, you know, to the nearest
energy percentage. uh the risk on the
preferred also collapses to 1%. Of
course, the BTC credit falls to just a
handful of basis points. Of course, the
market credit spreads stay the same and
you can see the spread premiums
dramatically expand and um and so for a
skeptic uh you might uh you might price
these bonds much lower if you're a
Bitcoin believer than these these uh
preferred instruments and these
convertible instruments would
potentially be much more valuable to
you if you don't want to embrace um a
Bitcoin fact credit model if you're not
interested in using BTC V BTC AR BTC
um rating in order to drive to um a BTC
credit number. Another way to do this is
to to utilize the Bloomberg corporate uh
default risk model. And so we actually
created that here and we're showing you
the results of that for MSTR. And of
course it's driven uh it's driven by
volatility. And you can see that as the
volatility of MSTR falls, we we move
from a high yield um rating to more of
an investment grade type rating here. Of
course, you can go ahead and plug in
your own number and decide how what what
kind of risk would be appropriate. Uh
this shows a five-year um probability of
default.
Um coming back uh to the question of how
do we pay the dividends, you can see
here that
um Bitcoin has traded 54 uh billion
dollar average trading volume over the
past 30 days. So so BTC is very very
liquid. MSTR's average trading volume is
about $5.6 billion a day. So not as
liquid as BTC but an extremely liquid
instrument. Our annual fixed obligations
about 235 million. You have to compare
that to the equity we've raised so far
year to date that's 9.1 billion. And so
the total fixed obligations we have as a
percent of daily trading volume 4% 4.2%
2% uh as a percent of the last uh 12
months equity that we've raised about 90
basis points and as a percentage of the
last 12 month trading volume of MSTR uh
two basis points. So we feel confident
uh that we should be able to uh raise
the capital in order to pay these
dividends uh without stressing any part
of our capital
structure. Slide 36 illustrates uh the
credit spread of traditional bonds. Uh
we're currently um we're currently
engaged in a process of um of educating
the market about the creditworthiness of
Bitcoinbacked credit instruments and um
and Bitcoin backed credit instruments
are a fairly new thing. Uh the
traditional market is very familiar with
uh
fiatbacked uh credit instruments. And as
you can see here, normally credit
spreads for investment grade are
anywhere from 30 to 125 basis points.
And um you know, as your you know, as
your uh credit rating falls, you know,
these credit spreads increase to uh to
much larger numbers. Um we're confident
over time that we will persu persuade
some investors uh that our Bitcoin uh
believers to start to think uh more
seriously about Bitcoin uh as
collateral. And as they start to embrace
BTC ratings and BTC risk and BTC credit
metrics, then we expect that our fixed
income instruments and our our
preferreds will be rerated by the
marketplace. And so there is there is
upside and and uh we're
enthusiastic about our education efforts
to get the market uh to view us as uh an
investment grade company uh issuing some
instruments that are investment grade
type instruments or comparable to
investment grade type instruments.
On slide 37, you can see why we believe
this uh because uh the lowest
collateralized instrument we have is
going to be six times over
collateralized and the highest uh
seniority instrument is 60 times over
collateralized. And if you look at the
conventional capital markets, there is
no rated US company that is more than
three times over collateralized on their
fixed income
securities. And so in this particular
case, we think that we're pioneering a
new area uh super overcolateralized
credit instruments. Uh and so they're
not rated right now and the credit
rating agencies have not embraced
Bitcoin as collateral. But clearly this
is the opportunity for our common equity
shareholders and for our fixed income
investors and and and this is an
opportunity for uh for the the market
and the industry in general and uh you
can see uh we have good reason to be
optimistic based upon this table.
So uh let me end with the thought that
um stride it's going to be driven by BTC
coverage. As the price of Bitcoin
appreciates the BTC rating is going to
appreciate that means the credit risk
perceived in the instrument should
decrease. That means that the credit
spread should compress. of the credit
spread compresses then stride can trade
up from uh from whatever level we
initially uh sell it at. So that would
be credit positive for stride. We think
that uh because it's a very long
duration instrument if interest rates
fall if sofur falls um over time that
could be very beneficial to stride
because we have a long duration uh fixed
dividend and then of course as bitcoin
volatility changes uh an increase in
volatility of BTC uh would increase the
risk but a decrease in volatility of BTC
uh would of course decrease the BTC risk
and that should be credit positive for
this instrument should should compress
credit spreads over time. Um our belief
is Bitcoin has been growing 50 to 60% a
year and over the course of 20 to 30
years. Uh my belief is Bitcoin grows
about 29% a year over the course of 20
years and uh as it as it decelerates
from its 50 or 6 50 55% growth rate down
to say
20%. We think that the volatility at
least I believe the volatility of
Bitcoin will also decelerate and and
should fall from 55
uh down toward the 20 level. And of
course it'll take two two decades for
that to happen. But over time as as
Bitcoin emerges as as an institutional
grade asset class, it's very reasonable
that its performance begins to converge
on on the S&P index or some equity
capital markets number and it's
reasonable that the volatility begins to
converge in the same way. So whatever
happens
uh the important thing is that um in a
high volatility environment that is very
uh that is equity positive for us.
Higher volatility increases the value of
our equity instruments and the
derivatives and the options that trade
above the Bitcoin baseline. And then and
that gives us the option to strip the
volatility to sell the credit
instruments. And on the other hand, in a
lower volatility environment, um we have
um more creditworthy instruments and so
it's reasonable that we could increase
our leverage ratio. And so the company
is uh pretty well positioned to either
run with a lower leverage leverage ratio
on a high ball environment or a higher
leverage ratio in a lower ball
environment. And we can tune this over
time in order to ensure that we reach
optimal performance uh with our uh with
our equity and with all of these other
instruments. And uh I will just end just
reiterating the terms. It's pretty
straightforward. $100 par, 10% uh
dividend at par junior to the other
preferreds.
Um our appendix has uh you know has some
nice uh details on our assumed fully
diluted share account and also uh
there's a more detailed explanation of
how we view BTC yield BTC gain BTC
dollar gain and also uh how we deal how
we view BTC rating BTC risk BTC credit
metrics etc. So if you have questions
about that, feel free uh to read uh the
details in the appendix. And uh we thank
all of you for your time today and for
your interest in this offering.