The Death of Gold | The Saylor Series | Episode 10 (WiM044)
WiM Media · 2021-09-06 · 1h 20m · View on YouTube →
hey guys
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needs all right guys welcome back to the
what is money show i am thrilled today
to have
mr michael saylor sitting down with me
to discuss
bitcoin money history um as we add
some additional installments here to the
the sailor series
michael welcome back
thanks for having me robert
so
you know
i've told you about the feedback we've
gotten on the sailor series it's been
absolutely tremendous people are
reporting that it completely
reshaped their world view you know sent
them down the rabbit hole
it's been very valuable and so i commend
you for that and
i think the right place to jump in here
today
since we're taking the big picture
approach is to just answer the question
what is money
yeah you know you know i i never in my
life had anybody asked me that question
before you asked it to me the first time
for our first series
and when you asked me that question
that catalyzed a whole set of thinking
and it got me thinking money is energy
and of course we did the nine part
series and we spent a lot of time
talking about energy systems and
engineering as a discipline of of
manipulating energy and
and why it was critical to the human
race and the human condition and and so
we won't we won't recover any of that
because that's that's well trod
territory but coming back to the
question of what is money
you know and just focusing on it
i would say for our our round two or
part two of this series i'd say
money is tokenized energy
within a socio-political framework
so we know money is energy but but
tokenized energy that is a dollar is a
measure of energy a gold coin
is a measure of energy a bale of tobacco
that you're trading is a it's a token of
energy
and how much energy well
that that's where the socio-political
framework comes in whereas i mean you
can you can measure
actual
physical or engineering energy and it's
objective but
money ends up being to a certain degree
subjective because it's
yeah if i show up on a deserted island
and i've got a stack of gold coins
and everybody has guns
and they're shooting each other they
might not accept my gold coin whereas
if i actually offer them bullets for
their gun they might think the bullets
are actually better money than the gold
coin
just like cigarettes right or good money
in in a
pow camp
but gold coins wouldn't be so
so
this question of what is money gets you
really going so if money is tokenized
energy within a social political
framework
then we can look over the history of
mankind and we realize that
we've chosen many different ways to
tokenize that energy
and we'll skip through most of them
because they came and they went but but
uh
there are three
that pop to mind that are interesting
one is the gold standard
the second is the fiat standard and the
third is the bitcoin
standard and
when you start asking what is money you
start asking well what's the best
monetary system
and we've got these three systems to
talk about
i think that
um you know
one thing that's pretty clear is that
most people can't get their hands around
bitcoin because it's an utter paradigm
shift
and why is it a paradigm shift
well because i think bitcoin is the
first digital money
i mean it's the first digital money gold
wasn't digital money and and fiat's not
digital money either
um
and so economists and politicians and
investors
they all lack the right mental model
to understand bitcoin
because
science and engineering
were so intrinsic to gold that we took
it for granted because gold was a it's a
10 pound lump of something and if you if
you get slugged in the head with it
nobody had to explain that science and
physics mattered
and then science and engineering kind of
became like
quasi-irrelevant in the fiat world
everybody just kind of
they ignored science and engineering and
there were no immediate clear
consequences
there were just the hyper inflations and
the collapses of those fiat systems but
but because
because they abandoned gold
and there was no digital money they were
the only alternative to one fiat you
know the weimar republic fiat currency
was the next the pound and that
alternative you know was an alternative
to the next thing and the next thing so
we were comparing fiat currencies or
fiat monies to each other and so there
was no real need to embrace science and
engineering
and bitcoin is this paradigm shift where
we have uh digital money crashing into
uh
i guess what we'll call uh
analog money or maybe a political money
is a better way to describe it
and
now we start to ask the question again
what is money
and i think tokenized energy isn't good
enough to to explain what is money
uh
another way to describe money is by
coming back to the ideal model what is
the ideal model of money ideal money
is a shared
immutable
correct
ledger
you know you've heard the phrase you
know bitcoin is a shared immutable
ledger and people debate about whether
it's truly immutable or not but but uh
you know a crypto asset network
fully decentralized and mature
is the closest thing we can get to an
immutable shared ledger in the history
of the world
i think a lot of times when people
describe it as a shared immutable ledger
they leave off the correct or the
mathematically correct because it's
almost implied
but i think that
if you were to focus upon the three
critical dimensions of ideal money you
would say it's a ledger that's shared
everybody everybody in the
in the political system has to have the
same access to the ledger
it has to be immutable no one can
doctor it but it has to be correct
mathematically complete or
mathematically proper because if it's
incomplete
or incorrect
then it's not ideal money so
if i take that as a model
money is a shared immutable correct
ledger right that i can imagine the
perfect money would be
you know
some godlike being comes down on earth
and they create this
perfect uncorruptable
system and they telepathically
they telepathically drop that
shared immutable correct ledger into the
heads of every human being and every
time you incur
a debt
it updates the ledger and when you incur
credit it updates the ledger
and no one can corrupt the ledger this
is getting right to the heart of
property
right where it's essentially a list of
who owns what
and that ownership is premised on
what favors have you rendered to the
market
then you've earned some right to redeem
favors from the market
and money's just kind of the ultimate
form of property and one that can be
redeemed for any other form of property
yeah i mean i share a shared immutable
correct ledger could be used to allocate
ownership of all intellectual property
you can't you kind of need it to keep
track of your music rights or your video
rights or your movie rights on your
itunes
store what do you own
or the rights right registration and
licenses
can i enter a building can i exit
can i cross a border
what are my rights
and what are my obligations and what do
i own
and what do i share
and it all comes down to just a shared
database but that database needs to be
immutable and correct
and that is property the essence of
property
and i suppose you know
when you own a piece of property
and you buy it a piece of land five
acres somewhere then there's a deed and
you go and you file the deed with the
courthouse
[Music]
and that's kind of critical right and
and so much of property law revolves
around
making sure that there are no liens on
the on
the property before i buy it making sure
that you have the proper title to it
and that you can transfer that title
and um
i think that um
money right to your point right is it's
kind of like the apex property it's the
sum of all property or at least it's
it's the most important property i
suppose because
it would be the
the property that i could use to trade
for any other property exactly yeah
right any any other property or any
other product or service right so yeah
that is my tokenized energy and what
you're describing here sorry just one
more thing is this
movement of money out of the sphere of
politics into an engineered standard
and if we one of the one definition of
politics i really like is the discussion
of how to apply coercion
so bitcoin seems to be this type of
money that's actually
moving us past
moving economics out of the sphere of
politics into a more hard science
that seems to be part of this paradigm
shift as we've we've always thought
money was in the domain of who could
apply force but now it's moving into the
domain of
what's scientifically proper
yeah i mean we're moving from uh
politically engineered money to
scientifically engineered money yeah
from social engineering to scientific
engineering
yeah is it is that money because the
most important person in the village
said it's money
or is that per is that money because the
best engineer
offered it as money
yes
you know satoshi engineered money
whereas uh you know every government
has created
money
yeah
so if we look at if we start with that
model right shared immutable correct
and now we go back to all the monetary
systems in history
start with ancient coins
right coin networks well they've been so
many coin networks right starting with
the lydians
each each coin network is well i have a
i have a gold coin i have a silver coin
i have a copper coin oftentimes there's
three different coins you know one for a
thousand one for ten one for one they
have to be at three different scales
and the shortcoming is
you know you create a system of coinage
or custom tokens and then you start
shuffling them around in a network you
can only trade to the extent that you
have those tokens
and if people lose the tokens you know
the money is gone but then people
try to counterfeit the tokens they try
to cut the coins
different ways
eventually the coins might wear down
the coins have to be carried
um
and so why do all these coin systems
fail
i i guess on one hand there's never
enough of them
right there's always a limit on the
other hand they're discreet so
you can go from a thousand to a hundred
to a ten or from a thousand to a ten to
a one but how do you get to a 0.1
or 0.01
you know when you want to get to you
know to orders of magnitude more or or
you want to make change in the middle
you end up with all these money changers
and the result of the money changing is
a huge amount of friction or impedance
and
for thousands of years people couldn't
figure out how to manufacture coins that
couldn't be cut or counterfeited or that
we're durable
and so ultimately
ultimately every single
and every single mercantile system right
has its own internal coin system and
when you when you swap from one system
to second there's this money changer in
the middle and they take you
take you for ten percent yeah
i remember traveling from um
from london uh to rome back before the
eu was formed robert
and i showed up with dollars and i
converted my dollars into pounds
and then i think i took uh
i took a a plane to the netherlands and
i converted my pound to whatever the
dutch currency was and i went to belgium
and i converted the dutch currency to
the belgian currency
and then we went through france i
converted again and then we went to
italy and i converted again i ended up
with like 50 of what i started with
after about 72 hours
which makes sense to that energy analogy
because every time you have a
transformation of energy you know from
thermal to kinetic to chemical whatever
direction it's going you have loss
right so there's this this problem we've
always had transforming one form of
energy into another and back
so crossing a coin network is every
single time you cross the network
there's energy loss
and then there's loss over time
as people counterfeit coins and you
can't tell and then there's loss
there's uh
there's losses
as the coins get debased and
so the result is what like 5000
different systems of coinage
over time
and uh that every one of them struggled
ultimately they were the basis of the
gold standard
and um
we have this myth that there was a gold
standard in the good old days but it
seems like the gold standard never
worked as far as we can find
anywhere i mean we we have the stories
of the romans debasing their coinage and
the collapse of the roman empire
and we know the lydians eventually
lost theirs and we know there must have
been hundreds of systems of coinage and
greece and and one
city would would sack another city and
replace melt down their coins and create
the next set of coins
so i mean there's a problem with the
whole idea of coinage and the problem
with coinage is it's based on metal
metallic money
and of course the highest form of money
is the is the gold so let's say it's
called the gold standard but what's the
problem with the gold standard
i mean it's never it never worked that
well because
it's got a couple of uh
some crippling flaws and just some
nagging flaws
there's inflation inflation's a nagging
defect it doesn't inflate fast it's like
it inflates slow but inflates it two or
three percent a year
and because it's inflating because
you're mining more gold and you're co
and you're striking more coins or
whatever it is you're moving around
it's not
conservative and by that i mean it's not
mathematically conservative or it's not
conservative from a scientific point of
view you start with 100 units and then
you've got 102 units and then 105 units
and 108 units so whatever percentage of
the gold supply you have is leaking at
two to three percent a year
and if it gets
you know and it could be worse if it's
not a closed system so if anybody
introduces new gold into the system like
you know when the spaniards found the
inca gold or they brought back the gold
from the new world you get
you get a massive inflation
i think i i remember reading a history
of caesar where when he came back after
the garlic wars he had seized so much
gold that that cro created a hyper
inflation in rome and the interest rates
leaped
and there was just too much money and so
so either there is inflation because you
seized gold or another nation flooded
your market with gold
or there's inflation because the gold
mining process continues
and so against our ideal model of money
that means that gold's not
mathematically correct
it's not it's not uh it's not
conservative nor is it correct it's it's
an approximation
under the best of circumstances it's got
a two percent error a year and so over
the course of a decade the best of
circumstances is like a 20 25 error rate
yeah but the worst of circumstances is i
double or triple the amount of gold when
i come back from you know sacking the
aztecs or the incas
or i you know i sacked goal
and i just brought back all this gold
and so then it then you've just got
a massive error so gold is
mathematically erroneous because
you're just shuffling metallic tokens
and it's not a closed system
i mean the second problem with gold is
confiscation
right because it's physical
the the custodial rights of gold aren't
really
they're not great i guess they're a
little bit better
they're a little bit better than fiat
currency but in some ways they're not as
good
um
if i have um a lot of gold if i have if
i have uh a million dollars worth of
gold or 10 million dollars worth of gold
it's heavy
really heavy i can't get it through an
airport
you know i i don't even know like
you know
i tried to
i went online on amazon once a few years
ago and i wanted um
i wanted a little pocket knife
and i ordered this pocket knife you know
how pretty much you can only carry a
blade which is like i don't know half an
inch long or it was a what's the number
it's like some infinitesimally small
size blade
like a quarter inch or half an inch
blade so i went on amazon and i found
someone advertising this really super
small
dinky little
knife that you could put use to cl to
cut a string with
and it was advertised as being a tsa
friendly compliant you know you know
little pocket knife
and i was so proud of myself because i
must have paid like
39 for it
and then i took it to the airport to go
through the metal detector and i swear
that the tsa agent stopped you know i
put all this stuff through they stopped
the luggage they're like show me that
and they pulled out this little
you know half inch blade to slice a
string with like sir you can't take this
with you
and i thought i can't but i you know of
course the defense of amazon said it's
okay didn't really
fly right and uh the the point of the
story is you can't even slip a
needle-like metal blade through an
airport i wonder if you could carry five
gold coins and get away with it or 10
gold coins if you can't get my little
pen knife thing through
and so the answer is it's easy to
confiscate custodial rights are really
weak
so the fundamental problem with the gold
standard is
is the custody is different difficult
and the security is hyper expensive
and by hyper expensive it's yeah how
much does it cost to secure a billion
dollars worth of this stuff
like what you hire 24 armed guards and
you down you know fort knox
okay
custody
it scales with the amount stored which
is something that's very problematic
yeah the cost you would say if there's a
small amount of it it's impossible to
secure and if there's a large amount of
it it's expensive exponentially
expensive to secure
and the security cost scales in some
ways exponentially with the amount you
have and also
with the number of nodes
if i have
a hundred thousand nodes i have a
hundred thousand points of failure
and so it scales with the number of
nodes the value of the nodes and the
velocity
of the nodes
or the velocity of the money right if i
wanted to move a billion dollars of gold
every day of the week
for 365 days in a row a thousand miles
right
figure out the security cost of that
right uh the conclusion is
this money is so heavy it has no
velocity right it goes into fort knox it
sits there for 30 years and nobody
audits it
and
under that circumstance you can almost
delude yourself into saying it's secure
but it's only secure because there's no
money velocity and there's no
distribution if i wanted to give gold to
eight billion people and wanted to move
it every day
then the cost of the security would go
up to consume all of the energy that
humanity produces right right probably
probably the cost of security for eight
billion people moving gold every day is
more than the sum of the entire gross
national product of the world right so
security doesn't you know the security
cost doesn't work it doesn't scale this
gets into then that separation between
or the decomposition of money into an
asset and a currency then right so gold
is functioning as an asset but it's not
useful as a currency something that
circulates therefore we introduce a
currency
and the other thing on goal i guess it's
it's the best approximation of that
immutable ledger that you described as
ideal money but it has still has this
error rate for both inflation which is
relatively small but the bigger error
rate has to do with the violence and
confiscation risk that
it's unpredictable when the market's
going to be flooded or if you're going
to be confiscated or if you're
custodians trustworthy etc
it's not correct and um
because
the you know it's tokenized energy
but and it was the best idea for
tokenizing energy and the bronze age
right i suppose right
but um
it's not a correct token and because
it's so
easy to confiscate
it it's not really a shared ledger
anymore it's not shared tokens right
because i can't share it because i can't
carry it with me
and then that leads us to the third
problem with it which is the
hypothecation it's it's too easy to
counterfeit
and manipulate and it's easy to
you know because i can either debase the
coins
themself
or i can lie about the gold about the
asset in the vault while i give you a
gold note
i either create the gold note and i lie
about it or i just debase the coin
and um and that that creates a problem
of authenticity
and uh
that leads us to the fourth problem
which is authentication it's it's too
expensive to audit and authenticate
you know in fact you know
out of out of uh
everybody that i know i don't know a
single person that's ever authenticated
a gold coin right
you wouldn't know how coinage was an
attempt to make authentication
self-evident right
right and and uh you know isaac newton
worked on how do you create a good coin
and most coins were crappy but but you
know we still struggle with this issue
and uh so if you can't authenticate it
then that really undermines the shared
part of the shared ledger as well and
maybe the correct part
and so transportation is also a defect
it's too expensive and slow and
difficult and dangerous to move
and distribution is a defect because
it's difficult to move difficult to
authenticate and easy to confiscate
then that means how do you distribute it
it's too difficult to distribute and too
expensive to distribute when i talk
about distribute i mean how do i give it
to a billion people
right i mean practically speaking
if you distribute uh up to a thousand
dollars of gold coins to a billion
people today
there would be a 35
markup slash markdown every time it
trades
right you you pay ninety dollars for
sixty dollars worth of gold
if you have sixty dollars worth of gold
you'd be lucky to sell it for forty
dollars
and so that that uh that transfer cost
is obscene
and then finally you got this division
issue
right how do you divide
a one ounce gold coin
you know you can't and so i can't divide
it so i have to create silver coin and
copper coin
and now i never have the right
combination of change
so prices don't work quite right
so gold has
fundamentally it it's it's the best
tokenized energy in the bronze age
but because of all these
all of these defects
by the middle ages
it was clear it's going to be replaced
with some some type of fiat or some kind
of checking system or other paper ledger
system
i it's not clear to me that they didn't
replace it
i talk about the gold myth
it's not clear to me they didn't replace
it 2 000 years ago like i i you know
they talk about the sumerian tablets
right and the sumerian tablets of clay
they have ledgers on them right so isn't
it quite possible if not likely that we
had checking systems or ledger systems
that were privately enforced by banks
thousands and thousands of years ago
so the gold myth is there never was a
gold standard there was never a time
when all money was gold
what you've all what you had was a time
when the principal asset for store of
value over the long duration was gold
right
and it's quite likely
that you always had uh you know the
merchant
had their ledger and you had a credit
with the merchant yeah and you know
maybe that was a credit with the ancient
roman merchant and maybe that was a
credit with
the town or maybe that was a credit
if you're on a ship anybody's ever been
on a ship
you know sailing for months at a time
you know the quartermaster has all the
supplies
and
if you wanted some of those cigarettes
or some of that alcohol they might let
you sign it out but then they charge
your account and when the voyage is over
they debit it against your wages
right and so this has been going on for
as long as people have been sailing
ships around
what what we have
is the myth of the gold standard but
we've always had um an asset currency
system and the currency was a check a
checking system
with a central counterparty we can call
them banks today
but we had goldsmiths right that had
gold notes back in the middle ages
and i think you've always had merchants
and you've always had quarter masters
and you've always had the guy in the
army that said you know you lose it
we're going to build your wages we're
going to dock your wages for that
you know whatever it is you lost or
you're spent or are you consumed i think
this is a really important point to zero
in on because what so what gold gave us
was this
reliable
medium for final settlement
but it could only be used for large
transactions essentially because the
economics don't make sense to use it for
small transactions so it doesn't
circulate well but you can settle large
transactions with it
so
due to that technological limitation of
gold effectively had such a high value
to weight i guess you might say that we
needed these
cheaper
systems these credit systems or
derivative systems systems of deferred
settlement built up around it
and that has been
kind of the problem throughout history
as we we have this system for final
settlement but we build systems of
deferred settlement around it which are
economically more efficient
but if they introduce all of these this
need to trust counterparties which comes
with counterparty risk which blows up
time and time again
and one of the implications of that is
is the social political systems we can
create are small and local
right the implication is city state yes
or uh yeah because i i have to get my
credit from the local merchant so if the
local merchant is a thousand miles away
the credit system doesn't work it breaks
down
so
i think you can be you can create a
trust network that goes about 10 miles
or 20 miles yes
it's fascinating trust network out to
the suburbs and then once you get beyond
the suburbs the trust breaks down
and if the trust breaks down
that means you've got renaissance italy
with
a hundred different city-states and
they've all got their own little
system of trust and ledgers and coinage
and there is no universal money and so
you can't have an easy rise of the
nation state
under a gold standard or a coinage
standard at least it's kind of
challenging right it's fascinating to me
that the the actual
shape
and configuration of our institutions
is derived from the nature of our money
in a way right the reason we have a
central bank is because of gold's
technological limitations so what it
gets me really thinking about is
when you swap out gold for bitcoin how
much how transformational it potentially
is to all the institutions we take for
granted today
yeah
i think that what we're what we see is
the progression of money as technology
through the ages
and if you have a better money
you have
a better economy
and as the money gets um
if we come back to this issue of is it
shared
is it immutable is it correct
the the greater the sharing right the
greater the economy the more immutable
the higher integrity you know the higher
efficiency of the economy the more
correct
right the more effective the the economy
the faster the network updates
the faster the economy
so i mean coming back or just finishing
up on goal why does gold fail
in theory why does gold fail in theory
uh it fails because
the base layer protocol is okay it's
kind of god given by nature it's it's
the creation and the smelting of gold
it's okay
but
it's not um
it's not conservative
the base layer protocol is
is uh
is not conservative um
the application level protocol that one
layer above the base layer or the layer
two
the application protocol is difficult
and
dangerous
but what does that mean like so i give
you
ten blocks of gold that's the base layer
okay well so what are all the
applications of gold
you know you can what can you do with
how many people do you know that can
actually refine or melt down molten gold
and create something with it
that's the dangerous part and the
difficult part so gold applications
they're
they're difficult and they're limited by
the laws of physics
and um
and that just means that and and there
is no application protocol
so
if i want to do anything
with gold above the layer one is either
a very difficult dangerous application
like gold goblets or gold coins or
something like that
or i have to create the equivalent of
gold check
which is a manually implemented protocol
and
now we've got the same problem fiat
currency at the point you implement a
gold check you've in essence moved on to
the fiat standard
with a gold reserve of some sort
so
gold fails primarily because there's no
good application protocol it's not
conservative it's too difficult too slow
too dangerous
and the physicality of it
the physicality of it invites violence
it's
i can literally fire bomb the city kill
everybody in it and the goal won't be
damaged
and so
like when in doubt
shoot first
and then
sift through your clothing and take your
gold
i don't have to worry about any
collateral damage
the last thing in the world you want to
do is be carrying around
immutable money on your person
when someone has an incentive just to
kill the people and take the money right
so that that's the fundamental problem
with gold that's why the gold standard
ultimately has always just been an
invitation to war
and uh never-ending i think
thousands and thousands and thousands of
wars
and uh little many wars right invitation
to criminality imitation of violence if
the criminals don't take your gold then
the counterparties take your gold and
the counterparties don't take your gold
then the go then your own government
takes your gold and your own government
doesn't take your gold the hostile
government takes your gold but
ultimately
gold because of his physicality is is
imperfect property right it is an
imperfect property
and um
and it's imperfect money
because
because the token itself
is so cumbersome and unwieldy
to utilize and this is so it's bronze
age money as you said but this
contention over gold that extends right
up into the 20th century in world war
one world war ii
there's still
massive gold flows taking place
geopolitically
um
while those nations are at war so it's
almost
i think it's an ill understood aspect of
human history that a lot of
the violence
between countries has been over the gold
or about the gold
um but it's not often discussed in the
history books
yeah when you i mean when you think
about it
you never
you never read a historical account
where someone says
yeah we uh we invaded their country and
we killed everybody so we could take
their paper currency
right
like
that
i could give you 5 000 accounts of
we sacked the city we burned it and we
took the gold
you know by the way we might have sacked
the city and haul the people off in
slavery
but we might have taken their livestock
we we prefer to take normally the
livestocks all dead by the time we take
the city though
right so the people are dead
the cattle are dead the food is gone
you know the water is all gone but the
gold's still there yeah
so generally if you look at the first 5
000 years it's we sacked the city we
took the gold then even in the modern
era you know from 1700 1800 1900
you know we we sacked the city uh okay
what do we make off with
there's not that many diamonds so
normally they're not they're not easy to
find there's not
not a lot of that sometimes you know the
nazis took the art right yep
and the nazis took the goal yep right
and so there's a lot of that you know we
took the gold from the treasury
stalin sees the gold during the spanish
civil war you know and the polls had to
smuggle their goal away to keep it from
the nazis
and there's all sorts of examples of
of uh somebody sacking some city or or
rolling over someone's border to take
their gold
um that's because it's takeable
right exactly
it's like uh why do you want to take it
because it's takeable
but
not a single example like the nazis
didn't want norwegian
you know paper currency they didn't want
swiss paper currency they didn't want
the dutch or the french paper currency
and not many people asked the question
why we didn't take their checks yeah we
didn't take their securities
you know because secure at the end of
the day securities and derivatives and
all these things have no value
maybe the factory has value
yeah
if it's not destroyed maybe the people
have value if you get them to work for
you the gold hat you know has value but
the paper doesn't there's some examples
of the opposite actually i think in
japan they had the norbito laboratory
where they were running experiments
where they would bomb their enemies
territory with counterfeit currency
so they would try to go you know they
were the idea was to go and bomb say
england with a bunch of counterfeit
pounds so they could hyperinflate their
currency and disable their economy
so it's like not only do you tie the
paper but you try to actually
inflate the enemies paper
i yeah i think that there's um
there's a lot of examples where hostile
governments would attempt to just
counterfeit the currency of their enemy
to destabilize the regime
but it doesn't get reported a lot in
political history or even military
history
and uh i mean some nations successfully
did it to the u.s but we don't want to
talk about it right
[Music]
so
you know you won't you won't read that
much but that's
it's an effective thing you could do
well anyway so i think
i think that
that ends my thoughts on gold it's it's
basically
a metallic token and it was our it was
our best idea
but it it seems to have stopped working
thousands of years ago
you could say
you could say a thousand two thousand
years ago almost certainly they had
shared ledgers
and they just used gold as a method of
final settlement
and we know that it
we know that it failed at different
points we know that it was debased and
result in the collapse of the roman
empire and so if rome was the greatest
empire on earth
when their final settlement network
failed
then the empire collapsed
and what you have is just a history is
the endless succession
of successive empires rising up with a
new gold standard that was not debased
and then
and then generation after generation the
coinage of that next empire the
successor empire would be debased and
then that empire would fail and collapse
and then another empire would come along
and they would start the cycle over and
over again
and and yet the myth of gold as as uh
immutable money
right or or the sovereign store of value
it stayed with us for thousands of years
into the 20th century
i would say that the gold standard has
been dying a slow death
a death by a thousand cuts
1914 comes along
you know we've got we've got the golden
age from whatever eighteen seven in
nineteen 1914 but then world war one
comes along and then in 1914
every country abandons the gold standard
and maybe that's the final cut
and
after world war one
you know in the treaty of genoa we came
back to a goal reserve standard
and in essence we had gold backing the
pac
war
and that degree of backing
successively slid so there was a
debasement of the pound and the dollar
consistently and gradually and then of
course the
you know the the pound and the dollar
became layer two applications if you
will and then every other currency
became a layer 3 derivative
and then everything else in the economy
was built on those derivatives so
you had basically layers of derivatives
of gold that got progressively
less backed by tangible energy that
would be nurtured
and that resulted in you know who knows
how many collapses
the great depression eventually get
world war ii
which you could say you know came out of
just a bunch of economic collapses like
the weimar republic
and
all the gold ended up getting
centralized
you know and seized by the americans and
fort knox
and then we wrapped bretton woods around
it
and bretton woods was the second gold
reserve standard of this century
except this time it's just the dollar
was the reserve currency
backed some percentage by gold say 40
percent or 30 buy gold and then every
year thereafter it slid from 40 to 30
to 20.
i shudder to say right it must have been
less than 10
by 1971.
and in 1971 we defaulted on the gold
standard
and in essence at that point right the
gold standard was though the gold
reserve standard was effectively dead
right
gold still has the fiction of being a
store of value
and an asset
and if you're looking for a
non-sovereign store of value
between 1971
and
the invention of bitcoin
you could have gone to gold i guess you
could have used property like land or
commodities timber rights oil rights
something like that
and you could have used art
there's probably there's probably no one
king right people dabble with is is
silver you know a store of value
i think the free market
went back and forth but it's it's pretty
clear that gold kind of died
it started dying if not it died as a
store of value about 10 years ago
as far as i can see
when bitcoin was
was formed and
if we look at performance in the last 12
months
right let's
just for for kicks let's just go and and
look at 12 months of performance
so
it's quite a day right in 12 months
bitcoin is up 240 percent
gold is down
9.82 percent
over the course of 10 years bitcoin is
up 132 percent compounded annual growth
rate
gold is 94 basis points
the s p indexes is 13.9
over 10 years
33 percent over one year
and um
summary right is store gold is not a
store of value in the last decade it's
it's
something
opposite of a store of
value if the s p is up 33 in 12 months
then a reasonable surrogate for
the collapse of purchasing power of the
currency in 12 months is
you know the inverse of that right but
you could say you need 33.7
more money to buy us the same share of
the s p yep
so a store of value has to clock at 33
or better
and gold is minus 40 percent
and bitcoin is plus 200 percent
so that's
that's the marketplace screaming at you
that
no one really sees
the gold as a monetary asset anymore
except for the gold bugs yeah
one of the key points that jumps out of
me here is getting back to your
framework of ideal money is that
immutable quality
necessitates a proof of work
and gold again was just the best
approximation of that right that's
really the only thing that ever made
gold money was this proof of work
necessary to produce it was really
difficult to produce
therefore it minimized counterparty risk
um
it was the best it was the best token
that you could work to produce that you
could you could possibly mold into a
coin right but then lost relevance in a
globalizing society because it wasn't
fast enough
yeah
not not fast enough not smart enough not
smart not strong enough
yep
everything that lives in a darwinian
world has to be faster smarter stronger
yes adaptive
you know i the cicadas came after 17
years and i saw them
a month or two ago
and they all come out of the ground at
the same time and i watched those
cicadas fly around my home and i thought
those are the stupidest
slowest weakest creatures i've ever seen
sometimes they would like fly to a
branch and they couldn't land on a
branch they were literally so stupid
they couldn't land on a branch they
could barely fly fast they would you
know a lot of them would just
accidentally fly into the dirt and slam
into the dirt so
when you looked at them and you compared
them to other insects
you saw those other insects are so much
better at flying
right you never really you never you
take it for granted right but you never
think oh those birds are good at flying
they're fast and strong and smart
until you see something that isn't fast
and isn't strong and isn't smart
and you say well this thing is pretty
much you know
history how could it possibly survive
and the answer is
they all have to birth once every 17
years and there's a million of them in
the air and they're all so stupid and
slow
and inept that they're definitely going
to die but
all the other creatures aren't going to
be able to kill them fast enough to keep
some of them from procreating right so
the quantity of quality strategy
yeah and i i think gold it just
eventually it fails because it's not
strong enough it's not fast enough it's
not smart enough
and
and the world goes to the next best
thing and fiat arrives arises
not because it's better than bitcoin but
because there is no such thing as
cryptography
and and computing so in a world without
computers and without cryptography and
without networks
you know you ask yourself what are you
going to do next the answer is
i'm going to come up with a shared
ledger
i i do have math
we got algebra we got calculus
i i do have writing i i can't create a
shared ledger
and uh the immutable part
is going to come from
the institutional credibility the
credibility of the proprietor and the
reputation of the proprietor whether
that's a king
or a mayor
or an owner
or religion
right but it comes from the immutability
and the credibility comes from uh
institutional human source
and the greater the institution
the greater the monetary system
and you have the greatest
monetary systems of of history
associated with the greatest
institutions and then you have the
weakest ones
all the way down
to you know
somebody on an 80-foot sailing ship in
the middle of the atlantic and there's a
ledger
and there's a quartermaster and there's
42 people
and that's their money system and
they're trading
it's a money system which is good for
six weeks or eight weeks
but it is life or death
for the eight weeks
and that is the fiat standard and that's
backed by the force of the captain
right yeah
you have a good captain you might make
it and if you have a bad captain there's
gonna be a mutiny
yeah
yeah right maybe i was gonna die it's a
great
framework i love i love the framework of
property and energy because it
there's also this deeper
notion that
you know most
species are territorial
most social species especially and that
includes humans i think we actually
express and manage our territoriality
through property
and so every little
enclave right whether it's a boat on the
ocean or a large piece of land tries to
control its most important form of
property because it's an expression of
its of managing its territory
and that's why we have these you know
regional monopolies on money we call
central banks
so that was episode 10 of the sailor
series
uh titled the death of gold
and i think sailor did an excellent job
you know firstly
answering the question what is money
um
and you know this is clearly a question
with a lot of answers
but i think he's distilled it nicely
into this concept of tokenized
socio-political energy or
uh i think as he said was tokenized
energy
within a socio-political framework
so in the first nine episodes of the
sailor series we weren't really deep
on the first principles of energy
anthropology
and technology really building all the
way from the stone age into modernity
and in that series
one of the main tenets was that money is
another definition of mine it was the
highest form of energy
a human can channel
and um this is very fundamental to the
purpose of life because what life is
doing is it's channeling energy across
space and time to try and satisfy
certain names
whether they be
instinctual aims like those of plants or
animals
or purposeful aims like those of humans
and this uh extra condition of putting
it within a socio-political framework i
think really frames it nicely
in insofar as what humans deal with uh
in our actual existence in the world
you know the socio aspect of
sociopolitical refers to social
interaction
which i would distinguish this as trade
specifically
um
you know voluntary exchange so
two
market actors two counterparties
willingly negotiating and executing a
trade
in a way that they both perceive
themselves to be better off after the
trade is completed
this is in fact
how value is created in the world
right i value the potatoes you have more
than the apples i have to trade
you value the opposite therefore we both
trade we both believe that we're better
off after the trade
and that's how really economic value
creation works
so that's clearly a very important part
of the socio-political term the second
part of that referring to politics or
the political framework
we really have to look at what that term
means political
in my mind it is
the imposition of one
will power
on to another or you could say in in the
macro sense an aggregate of human
willpower onto another
um
and this involves
coercion frankly you know it's a form of
involuntary exchange if you will
uh
there's a great line by klauswitz who's
a philosopher
on he's a martial philosopher so on
warfare
and he says that quote
war is the continuation of politics by
other means unquote
what he means by that is we're you know
we essentially use politics
as a mechanism for sorting out our
differences
um
in a way that hopefully prevents
armed conflict or violent conflict
but often can lead to it so
within
the realm of human affairs we have we're
basically dealing with two forms of
exchange all the time right exchange
that we can enter into voluntarily that
creates value
but we also face the threat of
involuntary exchange in terms of theft
taxation inflation confiscation
um
you know violence anything like this so
the point there
you know
with money as tokenized energy in this
socio-political framework
the whole
premise of the socio-political framework
is to create
collective energy efficiency through
trade
but it has to be done in a way that
protects that economic enclave from
involuntary exchange that's what the
purpose of government is in fact
is to monopolize violence and coercion
and compulsion and protect market actors
from those forces so that they can trade
productively
and um
you know politics itself then you could
say its premise on the threat of force
so this is
an interesting way to think about it
because if
you know politics is always a phenomenon
in human affairs at a micro scale but in
a macro scale if property
could not be transgressed against if you
could not be
um
if your property could not be stolen you
kind of could not be put to the point of
a gun to doing something you would have
much
lower regard for the political leanings
of others you would just ignore it
frankly
so
politics has been very influential
on human affairs precisely because
property
has been vulnerable to confiscation
and gold in this lens is no different
you know gold
it is it was actually selected as money
um as a result of this
confluence of cross purposes across
history
where people are you know there's a game
theoretic process going on where people
are trying to hold
the asset most resistant to inflation
dilution and confiscation
um
and in a medium that satisfies the other
properties of money like you know
divisibility durability recognizability
portability and scarcity
so
through that process gold was selected
and promoted as money because it was the
least dilutable most
uh economically dense medium we had
available to us
but it had many shortcomings which
sailor you know brilliantly elaborates
in this episode
and um
so getting when we start to look at
bitcoin
you know it's the first
digital
money and
this may seem a bit complicated at first
because we're all used to using
electronic credit cards and you know we
have online banking and whatnot today
but
none of that money is natively digital
which means that its supply
is not
enforced in digital space right it's all
a derivative of
um
the central bank frankly the central
bank is the arbiter of of how much money
is in circulation
um to some extent there are there
there's a bigger picture to that and
kind of the secondary
uh second and third tier banks plus euro
dollar markets and things like that but
in general uh central bank
holds soy over the money supply
and so with bitcoin we have
a very interesting new tool and that we
have a money
that has perfected the mapping
actually between
the sociopolitical and the energy
domains so
you know again the purpose of trade is
to produce energy efficiency
and whoever does that
whoever's um
satisfying the wants of consumers more
efficiently than others is rewarded with
profits
and those profits draw in other
competitors and that's how uh markets
essentially over time lower prices and
create innovation
um and that's how competition you know
in a darwinian sense really sharpens us
as both market actors and organisms
and
with bitcoin we have this
mapping to
the socio-political domain but it's it's
it's a mapping that's done in a way
this is the the fixed supply of 21
million maps perfectly to
the scarcity of time and energy which is
a thermodynamic reality
which is
you know beneath the reason it is
upholding the reason
for trade for competition for innovation
it's it's uh people
or even in a natural ecosystem animals
competing over scarce resources
um so the medium that communicates and
coordinates the market process is money
by definition
so we needed something that mapped on to
the scarcity of time and energy and
bitcoin does that perfectly
and that's why it's such a fundamental
breakthrough um as i've argued much more
writing a one-time discovery
so
with every other money
trust has always been necessary and
trust in humans has been necessary to
secure the network and this is
often if not always ended in corruption
and failure
um so sailor lays out this
you know kind of starting with the end
in mind
if we had an ideal money in the world
what would that look like
and it would very essentially be as we
covered a shared
immutable
mathematically correct
and complete ledger so
again if we're mapping
purchasing power which money holds
on to the market actors
that have earned it
there is no
better
ideal than that than this
shared immutable
mathematically correct and complete
ledger this this spreadsheet in the sky
if you will that no one can tamper with
and
it's an interesting thought experiment
because it's um
it makes sense for what an ideal money
would look like and then it also
overlays very nicely with what bitcoin
functionally is
so
this may be you know as we're
positing here
kind of an evolution
in money
um
this tokenized energy in a
socio-political framework has always
been very vulnerable
to politics to
theft coercion war violence all these
modes of involuntary exchange
but it seems with bitcoin that we may
have
perhaps evolved
from a political
monetary standard
to an engineered monetary standard so
something
much more like the second or kilogram
the metric system right some
universal protocol
that is shared and agreed upon by
everyone
uh and
because of that consensus cannot be
easily tampered with
um or distorted and that's a really big
breakthrough uh in terms of human
cooperation because again this is
money is the medium that binds us
uh you know you
as a human may know 150 people on a
first name basis right that's the dunbar
number
uh that anthropologists have talked
about
but we are connected to the other eight
billion people in the world through
money that is this medium
that
interconnects us through trade
effectively
and if that medium can be distorted or
twisted
then it corrupts
these trade relationships and it breaks
down
the the energy efficiency we derive from
the division of labor
and that's that's largely what we're
dealing with today
with central banks
so
we zoomed out and looked at the history
of money to really explain how gold has
died or is dying a slow death
and one of the first places we started
was coinage
which was introduced really to improve
the divisibility
of money of gold and silver specifically
and to reduce transaction cost
so
again gold was this tool that was
excellent for storing value across time
but it was very limited in its ability
to express value across space because of
its physicality
its security costs limited to visibility
etc
so coinage was
introduced as like a technological
augmentation
to overcome this insufficiency of gold
um as sailor said before you can
decompose money into kind of the
currency
component and the the asset component
so we could say that gold was an
excellent asset and that it held value
over time
relatively well
but it was a terrible currency right it
did not again currency like current it
did not flow well it was not a
readily transactable money
which limited its its liquidity and
transactability
and so coins
were this augmentation introduced
to improve that and they're also uh
coins were also an attempt
as sailor said to make authentication
self-evident
so
this would have been
aimed at reducing transaction costs in a
trade so that every time you go to trade
something for gold you did not have to
stop
and weigh the gold and test its
authenticity
and you know
run it through all these different
techniques to say it you could save
time energy and effort by
relying on the
the issuer whoever issued the coin
uh the seal that they placed on it would
basically be a seal of legitimacy right
saying this is
24 ounces pure gold whatever it may be
and you could just depend on the
reputation of the issuer versus having
to assay the gold at every transaction
so this
um
the intent of this at least with coinage
was to radically decrease the
transaction costs which it in fact did
for for a long time
another way to say this is that you know
again back to the five properties of
money
this was intended to improve the
recognizability feature so people could
recognize coins
uh they would know with a high degree of
certainty that they were authentic and
they could be relied upon without having
to expend all these resources verifying
them themselves
so what this gave us
again if we're talking about this ideal
money this standard shared immutable
ledger right a standard of value if you
will
coinage was a step towards
standardization right different
regional monopolies
that controlled property a certain area
would issue their coinage
and standardize it to a certain to
certain denominations
so that they could transact with very
low friction right so you could keep uh
the economic machine moving
but this standardization
you know we talked about standardization
uh earlier in the series as well in its
relationship to monopolization
it comes at the cost of centralization
so you end up trusting that issuer right
this one singular counterparty gains a
lot of power
over the entire economic network
and this gets you into system i'm sorry
it gets you into problems like
the money changers
and uh
you know every time you're transacting
from one currency to another they're
going to take a little bit of rent
out of that that trade which would be
necessary
more and more necessary for a
globalizing society as you have to trade
across jurisdictions
um you know there's another way to say
that is energy loss every time you
transform from one energy to another
this is true in the physical world as
true
it's equally true in the financial world
as it is in the physical world
and importantly and what really you know
destroys
gold's um
ability to serve as a good money is the
fact that
the economics of it
force it to be centralized
you need this issuer so it can be more
transactable across space
and with that centralization comes
corruption right
the
issuer gains essentially absolute power
over the money and as we know thanks to
lord acton absolute power corrupts
absolutely
so we then went into some problems with
the gold standard um
and i think this is well described that
you know we've covered why gold was
selected as money that again as
people are trading
um trying to satisfy the wants of others
profitably
you have a direct financial incentive to
store those profits in a medium that
cannot be debased that you cannot be
stolen from
and again
gold was
of all the monetary metals it was the
one that exhibited
exhibited the greatest scarcity
another way to say that is
it exhibited the greatest inflation
resistance
and sailor describes inflation actually
so
typically um across history
at least over the past 50 years i think
longer as well but
um
the rate of gold inflation
averages about two percent per year
so you know with relative certainty
that you're only going to be debased or
diluted as a gold holder at a rate of
about two percent per year which means
your your wealth is getting cut in half
roughly every 35 years
but the advantage there again was was
his predictability
and you know sailor in his engineering
mind he describes it as the error rate
which i think is a great way to look at
it it's
gold was chosen
as a as this mechanism for trade as this
medium portrayed because it had the
lowest error rate right anything else
that you selected had a higher error and
therefore
if you chose it as a market actor you
would be
selected unfavorably against in free
market competition right anyone that
chose gold you chose silver you would
effectively get out competed because
your money had a higher error rate than
gold
um
but the caveat here and this is very
important with kohl's
is that that two percent is an average
it's not perfect
and in fact it can explode right it can
explode for a number of reasons
um we could have an innovation
breakthrough right uh alchemy
you know alchemists all over the world
spent a lot of effort trying to figure
out how to synthesize uh gold from lead
if there was ever a technological
breakthrough that gold could be
manufactured in a lab profitably you
know at
at a cost per ounce below the market
price
that would be very
um devastating
to gold to the error rate of gold the
supply could explode and its value would
implode
um
or as we you know
what we have actually seen historically
are these these uh discoveries you know
like the gold bonanza in south america
where all of a sudden um
you know these certain conquerors or
explorers stumble upon a new
stash of gold and then they sell it into
the market so that error rate you know
everyone's thinking it's two percent
year over year inflation well all of a
sudden you can get a 20 year or worse
um
and finally you know war war
very
clearly um can cause the market of gold
to be flooded as well for the same
reasons if one country conquers another
and they go and liquidate their gold
holdings um that can have a big effect
on that error rate of gold
which gets into another major problem
with gold is that you know it's
vulnerable to confiscation
it's
more
prone to physical theft
it doesn't have the you know it's it's
protected from inflation much more than
fiat for instance
but it's because it's a bearer asset
and that essentially it's whoever
possesses the gold
is presumed to be its rightful holder
right it's a as an asset it's 100 equity
and zero percent liability it's no one
else's
um
no one else has a claim on it if i hold
physical gold that's it it's a bare
asset so
when it is confiscated because it's a
physical bearer asset if it is
confiscated that's it you don't have
recourse to anyone or anything to try
and get it back
so that's a big problem and actually
relates to
uh you know gold inviting violence
effectively you know say that makes a
point that you can firebomb the city
destroy everything but the gold remains
intact you know it's a very durable
metal and
at that point you really don't need
because it's physical you don't need
anyone's permission to confiscate it
so
the physicality you know we keep coming
back to
that being at the core of gold's problem
and it just doesn't hold up to our ideal
standard of money
uh again the shared
immutable mathematically correct and
complete ledger this thing
that by definition
has to be non-corporeal has to be
intangible non-physical gold simply
cannot be that
and in fact what we've seen throughout
history are attempts
at the market um
to get closer to that ideal from gold
that was us abstracting
gold into paper currencies or or
building credit systems or derivative
systems on top of it to make it faster
smarter better you know to make it more
adaptive in a pure darwinian sense and
the the achilles heel of that
attempt to make gold more adaptive has
always been
humans we've always corrupted the system
whatever system we've created on top of
it
it has been corruptable
and since money is
you know the most powerful incentive in
the world
it has led to the corruption of every
social institution that has tried to do
that
the latest of which would be the central
bank which
for the past 50 years has been
completely unmoored from gold
and we could say is essentially a fully
fraudulent
globalized currency counterfeiting
operation as a result
so
it's interesting that you know it's
the institutions
the institutional configuration we have
in the world like we just mentioned the
central bank
is derivative of these technological
limitations of gold so it's like the
tool
that's so important for binding us
together whatever limitations
or failings it has they actually
manifest themselves in our socioeconomic
systems
and
you know that's it it's gold is just
in a very matter-of-fact darwinian sense
where
what did charles owen say it's not the
fastest smartest strongest or most
intelligent species that survives is the
one that's most adaptive to change
gold is simply too slow dumb weak
non-adaptive etc it just
it does one function really well and
that is
hold
its supply
uh expectations over time right when i
say really well i mean relative to
everything else we've had in the
physical domain
but again with the discovery of bitcoin
we for the first time in human history
have an asset with a
guaranteed fixed immutable supply
and
it's
can do that because of its
non-physicality the fact that it's not
physical
means that bitcoin can have this
property of absolute scarcity we
couldn't do that with anything physical
there's no
it is impossible to guarantee the supply
of any physical item right anything
physical subject to counterfeit so
we needed this
mathematical
competitive economic network to um
to zero in on this shelling point if you
will which is like a focus point in game
theory
of a fixed supply all right and there's
constantly energy and effort uh
being poured into that
to secure it
so
you know in a world of endless darwinian
competition even in the sphere of money
gold is simply not cut out to survive
um and through that same lens we could
say that bitcoin is is very simply the
apex predator of money as many people
have said
so
that was it for episode 10. uh i'll see
you guys back here soon for episode 11.
we're going to be diving into the
failings of fiat
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