SaylorCorpus

The Death of Gold | The Saylor Series | Episode 10 (WiM044)

WiM Media · 2021-09-06 · 1h 20m · View on YouTube →

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hey guys

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this is robert reed love from the what

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is money show and as you learn by

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needs all right guys welcome back to the

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what is money show i am thrilled today

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to have

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mr michael saylor sitting down with me

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to discuss

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bitcoin money history um as we add

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some additional installments here to the

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the sailor series

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michael welcome back

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thanks for having me robert

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you know

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i've told you about the feedback we've

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gotten on the sailor series it's been

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absolutely tremendous people are

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reporting that it completely

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reshaped their world view you know sent

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them down the rabbit hole

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it's been very valuable and so i commend

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you for that and

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i think the right place to jump in here

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today

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since we're taking the big picture

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approach is to just answer the question

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what is money

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yeah you know you know i i never in my

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life had anybody asked me that question

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before you asked it to me the first time

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for our first series

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and when you asked me that question

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that catalyzed a whole set of thinking

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and it got me thinking money is energy

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and of course we did the nine part

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series and we spent a lot of time

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talking about energy systems and

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engineering as a discipline of of

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manipulating energy and

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and why it was critical to the human

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race and the human condition and and so

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we won't we won't recover any of that

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because that's that's well trod

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territory but coming back to the

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question of what is money

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you know and just focusing on it

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i would say for our our round two or

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part two of this series i'd say

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money is tokenized energy

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within a socio-political framework

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so we know money is energy but but

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tokenized energy that is a dollar is a

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measure of energy a gold coin

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is a measure of energy a bale of tobacco

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that you're trading is a it's a token of

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energy

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and how much energy well

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that that's where the socio-political

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framework comes in whereas i mean you

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can you can measure

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actual

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physical or engineering energy and it's

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objective but

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money ends up being to a certain degree

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subjective because it's

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yeah if i show up on a deserted island

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and i've got a stack of gold coins

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and everybody has guns

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and they're shooting each other they

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might not accept my gold coin whereas

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if i actually offer them bullets for

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their gun they might think the bullets

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are actually better money than the gold

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just like cigarettes right or good money

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in in a

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pow camp

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but gold coins wouldn't be so

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this question of what is money gets you

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really going so if money is tokenized

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energy within a social political

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framework

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then we can look over the history of

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mankind and we realize that

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we've chosen many different ways to

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tokenize that energy

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and we'll skip through most of them

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because they came and they went but but

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there are three

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that pop to mind that are interesting

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one is the gold standard

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the second is the fiat standard and the

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third is the bitcoin

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standard and

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when you start asking what is money you

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start asking well what's the best

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monetary system

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and we've got these three systems to

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talk about

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i think that

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um you know

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one thing that's pretty clear is that

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most people can't get their hands around

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bitcoin because it's an utter paradigm

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shift

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and why is it a paradigm shift

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well because i think bitcoin is the

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first digital money

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i mean it's the first digital money gold

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wasn't digital money and and fiat's not

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digital money either

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and so economists and politicians and

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investors

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they all lack the right mental model

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to understand bitcoin

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because

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science and engineering

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were so intrinsic to gold that we took

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it for granted because gold was a it's a

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10 pound lump of something and if you if

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you get slugged in the head with it

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nobody had to explain that science and

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physics mattered

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and then science and engineering kind of

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became like

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quasi-irrelevant in the fiat world

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everybody just kind of

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they ignored science and engineering and

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there were no immediate clear

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consequences

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there were just the hyper inflations and

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the collapses of those fiat systems but

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but because

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because they abandoned gold

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and there was no digital money they were

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the only alternative to one fiat you

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know the weimar republic fiat currency

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was the next the pound and that

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alternative you know was an alternative

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to the next thing and the next thing so

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we were comparing fiat currencies or

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fiat monies to each other and so there

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was no real need to embrace science and

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engineering

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and bitcoin is this paradigm shift where

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we have uh digital money crashing into

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i guess what we'll call uh

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analog money or maybe a political money

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is a better way to describe it

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now we start to ask the question again

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what is money

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and i think tokenized energy isn't good

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enough to to explain what is money

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another way to describe money is by

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coming back to the ideal model what is

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the ideal model of money ideal money

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is a shared

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immutable

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correct

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ledger

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you know you've heard the phrase you

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know bitcoin is a shared immutable

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ledger and people debate about whether

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it's truly immutable or not but but uh

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you know a crypto asset network

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fully decentralized and mature

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is the closest thing we can get to an

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immutable shared ledger in the history

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of the world

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i think a lot of times when people

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describe it as a shared immutable ledger

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they leave off the correct or the

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mathematically correct because it's

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almost implied

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but i think that

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if you were to focus upon the three

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critical dimensions of ideal money you

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would say it's a ledger that's shared

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everybody everybody in the

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in the political system has to have the

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same access to the ledger

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it has to be immutable no one can

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doctor it but it has to be correct

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mathematically complete or

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mathematically proper because if it's

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incomplete

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or incorrect

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then it's not ideal money so

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if i take that as a model

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money is a shared immutable correct

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ledger right that i can imagine the

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perfect money would be

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you know

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some godlike being comes down on earth

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and they create this

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perfect uncorruptable

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system and they telepathically

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they telepathically drop that

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shared immutable correct ledger into the

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heads of every human being and every

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time you incur

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a debt

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it updates the ledger and when you incur

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credit it updates the ledger

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and no one can corrupt the ledger this

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is getting right to the heart of

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property

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right where it's essentially a list of

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who owns what

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and that ownership is premised on

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what favors have you rendered to the

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market

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then you've earned some right to redeem

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favors from the market

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and money's just kind of the ultimate

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form of property and one that can be

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redeemed for any other form of property

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yeah i mean i share a shared immutable

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correct ledger could be used to allocate

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ownership of all intellectual property

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you can't you kind of need it to keep

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track of your music rights or your video

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rights or your movie rights on your

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itunes

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store what do you own

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or the rights right registration and

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licenses

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can i enter a building can i exit

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can i cross a border

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what are my rights

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and what are my obligations and what do

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i own

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and what do i share

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and it all comes down to just a shared

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database but that database needs to be

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immutable and correct

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and that is property the essence of

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property

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and i suppose you know

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when you own a piece of property

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and you buy it a piece of land five

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acres somewhere then there's a deed and

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you go and you file the deed with the

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courthouse

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[Music]

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and that's kind of critical right and

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and so much of property law revolves

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around

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making sure that there are no liens on

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the on

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the property before i buy it making sure

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that you have the proper title to it

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and that you can transfer that title

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and um

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i think that um

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money right to your point right is it's

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kind of like the apex property it's the

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sum of all property or at least it's

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it's the most important property i

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suppose because

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it would be the

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the property that i could use to trade

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for any other property exactly yeah

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right any any other property or any

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other product or service right so yeah

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that is my tokenized energy and what

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you're describing here sorry just one

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more thing is this

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movement of money out of the sphere of

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politics into an engineered standard

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and if we one of the one definition of

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politics i really like is the discussion

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of how to apply coercion

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so bitcoin seems to be this type of

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money that's actually

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moving us past

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moving economics out of the sphere of

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politics into a more hard science

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that seems to be part of this paradigm

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shift as we've we've always thought

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money was in the domain of who could

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apply force but now it's moving into the

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domain of

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what's scientifically proper

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yeah i mean we're moving from uh

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politically engineered money to

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scientifically engineered money yeah

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from social engineering to scientific

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engineering

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yeah is it is that money because the

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most important person in the village

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said it's money

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or is that per is that money because the

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best engineer

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offered it as money

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you know satoshi engineered money

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whereas uh you know every government

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has created

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money

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so if we look at if we start with that

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model right shared immutable correct

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and now we go back to all the monetary

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systems in history

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start with ancient coins

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right coin networks well they've been so

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many coin networks right starting with

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the lydians

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each each coin network is well i have a

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i have a gold coin i have a silver coin

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i have a copper coin oftentimes there's

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three different coins you know one for a

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thousand one for ten one for one they

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have to be at three different scales

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and the shortcoming is

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you know you create a system of coinage

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or custom tokens and then you start

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shuffling them around in a network you

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can only trade to the extent that you

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have those tokens

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and if people lose the tokens you know

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the money is gone but then people

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try to counterfeit the tokens they try

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to cut the coins

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different ways

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eventually the coins might wear down

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the coins have to be carried

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and so why do all these coin systems

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i i guess on one hand there's never

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enough of them

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right there's always a limit on the

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other hand they're discreet so

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you can go from a thousand to a hundred

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to a ten or from a thousand to a ten to

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a one but how do you get to a 0.1

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or 0.01

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you know when you want to get to you

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know to orders of magnitude more or or

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you want to make change in the middle

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you end up with all these money changers

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and the result of the money changing is

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a huge amount of friction or impedance

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for thousands of years people couldn't

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figure out how to manufacture coins that

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couldn't be cut or counterfeited or that

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we're durable

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and so ultimately

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ultimately every single

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and every single mercantile system right

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has its own internal coin system and

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when you when you swap from one system

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to second there's this money changer in

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the middle and they take you

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take you for ten percent yeah

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i remember traveling from um

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from london uh to rome back before the

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eu was formed robert

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and i showed up with dollars and i

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converted my dollars into pounds

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and then i think i took uh

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i took a a plane to the netherlands and

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i converted my pound to whatever the

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dutch currency was and i went to belgium

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and i converted the dutch currency to

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the belgian currency

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and then we went through france i

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converted again and then we went to

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italy and i converted again i ended up

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with like 50 of what i started with

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after about 72 hours

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which makes sense to that energy analogy

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because every time you have a

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transformation of energy you know from

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thermal to kinetic to chemical whatever

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direction it's going you have loss

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right so there's this this problem we've

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always had transforming one form of

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energy into another and back

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so crossing a coin network is every

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single time you cross the network

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there's energy loss

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and then there's loss over time

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as people counterfeit coins and you

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can't tell and then there's loss

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there's uh

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there's losses

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as the coins get debased and

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so the result is what like 5000

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different systems of coinage

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over time

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and uh that every one of them struggled

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ultimately they were the basis of the

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gold standard

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and um

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we have this myth that there was a gold

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standard in the good old days but it

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seems like the gold standard never

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worked as far as we can find

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anywhere i mean we we have the stories

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of the romans debasing their coinage and

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the collapse of the roman empire

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and we know the lydians eventually

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lost theirs and we know there must have

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been hundreds of systems of coinage and

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greece and and one

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city would would sack another city and

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replace melt down their coins and create

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the next set of coins

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so i mean there's a problem with the

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whole idea of coinage and the problem

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with coinage is it's based on metal

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metallic money

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and of course the highest form of money

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is the is the gold so let's say it's

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called the gold standard but what's the

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problem with the gold standard

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i mean it's never it never worked that

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well because

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it's got a couple of uh

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some crippling flaws and just some

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nagging flaws

0:17:54

there's inflation inflation's a nagging

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defect it doesn't inflate fast it's like

0:17:59

it inflates slow but inflates it two or

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three percent a year

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and because it's inflating because

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you're mining more gold and you're co

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and you're striking more coins or

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whatever it is you're moving around

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it's not

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conservative and by that i mean it's not

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mathematically conservative or it's not

0:18:17

conservative from a scientific point of

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view you start with 100 units and then

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you've got 102 units and then 105 units

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and 108 units so whatever percentage of

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the gold supply you have is leaking at

0:18:30

two to three percent a year

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and if it gets

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you know and it could be worse if it's

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not a closed system so if anybody

0:18:39

introduces new gold into the system like

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you know when the spaniards found the

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inca gold or they brought back the gold

0:18:47

from the new world you get

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you get a massive inflation

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i think i i remember reading a history

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of caesar where when he came back after

0:18:56

the garlic wars he had seized so much

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gold that that cro created a hyper

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inflation in rome and the interest rates

0:19:03

leaped

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and there was just too much money and so

0:19:07

so either there is inflation because you

0:19:10

seized gold or another nation flooded

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your market with gold

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or there's inflation because the gold

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mining process continues

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and so against our ideal model of money

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that means that gold's not

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mathematically correct

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it's not it's not uh it's not

0:19:30

conservative nor is it correct it's it's

0:19:33

an approximation

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under the best of circumstances it's got

0:19:37

a two percent error a year and so over

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the course of a decade the best of

0:19:42

circumstances is like a 20 25 error rate

0:19:45

yeah but the worst of circumstances is i

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double or triple the amount of gold when

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i come back from you know sacking the

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aztecs or the incas

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or i you know i sacked goal

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and i just brought back all this gold

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and so then it then you've just got

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a massive error so gold is

0:20:04

mathematically erroneous because

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you're just shuffling metallic tokens

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and it's not a closed system

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i mean the second problem with gold is

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confiscation

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right because it's physical

0:20:19

the the custodial rights of gold aren't

0:20:21

really

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they're not great i guess they're a

0:20:24

little bit better

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they're a little bit better than fiat

0:20:28

currency but in some ways they're not as

0:20:33

if i have um a lot of gold if i have if

0:20:36

i have uh a million dollars worth of

0:20:38

gold or 10 million dollars worth of gold

0:20:40

it's heavy

0:20:42

really heavy i can't get it through an

0:20:44

airport

0:20:45

you know i i don't even know like

0:20:49

you know

0:20:50

i tried to

0:20:51

i went online on amazon once a few years

0:20:55

ago and i wanted um

0:20:57

i wanted a little pocket knife

0:20:59

and i ordered this pocket knife you know

0:21:02

how pretty much you can only carry a

0:21:04

blade which is like i don't know half an

0:21:06

inch long or it was a what's the number

0:21:09

it's like some infinitesimally small

0:21:11

size blade

0:21:13

like a quarter inch or half an inch

0:21:15

blade so i went on amazon and i found

0:21:18

someone advertising this really super

0:21:21

small

0:21:22

dinky little

0:21:24

knife that you could put use to cl to

0:21:26

cut a string with

0:21:29

and it was advertised as being a tsa

0:21:32

friendly compliant you know you know

0:21:35

little pocket knife

0:21:37

and i was so proud of myself because i

0:21:38

must have paid like

0:21:40

39 for it

0:21:44

and then i took it to the airport to go

0:21:46

through the metal detector and i swear

0:21:48

that the tsa agent stopped you know i

0:21:50

put all this stuff through they stopped

0:21:52

the luggage they're like show me that

0:21:54

and they pulled out this little

0:21:57

you know half inch blade to slice a

0:22:00

string with like sir you can't take this

0:22:02

with you

0:22:04

and i thought i can't but i you know of

0:22:07

course the defense of amazon said it's

0:22:09

okay didn't really

0:22:10

fly right and uh the the point of the

0:22:14

story is you can't even slip a

0:22:17

needle-like metal blade through an

0:22:20

airport i wonder if you could carry five

0:22:23

gold coins and get away with it or 10

0:22:26

gold coins if you can't get my little

0:22:28

pen knife thing through

0:22:31

and so the answer is it's easy to

0:22:32

confiscate custodial rights are really

0:22:37

so the fundamental problem with the gold

0:22:39

standard is

0:22:41

is the custody is different difficult

0:22:43

and the security is hyper expensive

0:22:46

and by hyper expensive it's yeah how

0:22:49

much does it cost to secure a billion

0:22:51

dollars worth of this stuff

0:22:53

like what you hire 24 armed guards and

0:22:55

you down you know fort knox

0:23:00

custody

0:23:01

it scales with the amount stored which

0:23:04

is something that's very problematic

0:23:07

yeah the cost you would say if there's a

0:23:09

small amount of it it's impossible to

0:23:11

secure and if there's a large amount of

0:23:13

it it's expensive exponentially

0:23:15

expensive to secure

0:23:17

and the security cost scales in some

0:23:19

ways exponentially with the amount you

0:23:22

have and also

0:23:23

with the number of nodes

0:23:26

if i have

0:23:27

a hundred thousand nodes i have a

0:23:29

hundred thousand points of failure

0:23:31

and so it scales with the number of

0:23:33

nodes the value of the nodes and the

0:23:35

velocity

0:23:37

of the nodes

0:23:39

or the velocity of the money right if i

0:23:41

wanted to move a billion dollars of gold

0:23:44

every day of the week

0:23:46

for 365 days in a row a thousand miles

0:23:51

right

0:23:52

figure out the security cost of that

0:23:54

right uh the conclusion is

0:23:57

this money is so heavy it has no

0:23:58

velocity right it goes into fort knox it

0:24:01

sits there for 30 years and nobody

0:24:03

audits it

0:24:07

under that circumstance you can almost

0:24:09

delude yourself into saying it's secure

0:24:12

but it's only secure because there's no

0:24:14

money velocity and there's no

0:24:16

distribution if i wanted to give gold to

0:24:19

eight billion people and wanted to move

0:24:21

it every day

0:24:23

then the cost of the security would go

0:24:25

up to consume all of the energy that

0:24:28

humanity produces right right probably

0:24:31

probably the cost of security for eight

0:24:33

billion people moving gold every day is

0:24:36

more than the sum of the entire gross

0:24:39

national product of the world right so

0:24:42

security doesn't you know the security

0:24:44

cost doesn't work it doesn't scale this

0:24:47

gets into then that separation between

0:24:50

or the decomposition of money into an

0:24:52

asset and a currency then right so gold

0:24:55

is functioning as an asset but it's not

0:24:57

useful as a currency something that

0:24:58

circulates therefore we introduce a

0:25:01

currency

0:25:03

and the other thing on goal i guess it's

0:25:05

it's the best approximation of that

0:25:07

immutable ledger that you described as

0:25:09

ideal money but it has still has this

0:25:11

error rate for both inflation which is

0:25:14

relatively small but the bigger error

0:25:16

rate has to do with the violence and

0:25:18

confiscation risk that

0:25:20

it's unpredictable when the market's

0:25:22

going to be flooded or if you're going

0:25:23

to be confiscated or if you're

0:25:24

custodians trustworthy etc

0:25:27

it's not correct and um

0:25:30

because

0:25:31

the you know it's tokenized energy

0:25:34

but and it was the best idea for

0:25:37

tokenizing energy and the bronze age

0:25:40

right i suppose right

0:25:42

but um

0:25:45

it's not a correct token and because

0:25:48

it's so

0:25:49

easy to confiscate

0:25:51

it it's not really a shared ledger

0:25:53

anymore it's not shared tokens right

0:25:56

because i can't share it because i can't

0:25:58

carry it with me

0:26:00

and then that leads us to the third

0:26:02

problem with it which is the

0:26:03

hypothecation it's it's too easy to

0:26:05

counterfeit

0:26:07

and manipulate and it's easy to

0:26:10

you know because i can either debase the

0:26:12

coins

0:26:14

themself

0:26:15

or i can lie about the gold about the

0:26:17

asset in the vault while i give you a

0:26:20

gold note

0:26:23

i either create the gold note and i lie

0:26:25

about it or i just debase the coin

0:26:27

and um and that that creates a problem

0:26:31

of authenticity

0:26:33

and uh

0:26:34

that leads us to the fourth problem

0:26:36

which is authentication it's it's too

0:26:38

expensive to audit and authenticate

0:26:42

you know in fact you know

0:26:44

out of out of uh

0:26:47

everybody that i know i don't know a

0:26:48

single person that's ever authenticated

0:26:50

a gold coin right

0:26:52

you wouldn't know how coinage was an

0:26:55

attempt to make authentication

0:26:57

self-evident right

0:27:01

right and and uh you know isaac newton

0:27:03

worked on how do you create a good coin

0:27:05

and most coins were crappy but but you

0:27:08

know we still struggle with this issue

0:27:11

and uh so if you can't authenticate it

0:27:15

then that really undermines the shared

0:27:17

part of the shared ledger as well and

0:27:20

maybe the correct part

0:27:23

and so transportation is also a defect

0:27:25

it's too expensive and slow and

0:27:28

difficult and dangerous to move

0:27:31

and distribution is a defect because

0:27:34

it's difficult to move difficult to

0:27:36

authenticate and easy to confiscate

0:27:40

then that means how do you distribute it

0:27:42

it's too difficult to distribute and too

0:27:44

expensive to distribute when i talk

0:27:46

about distribute i mean how do i give it

0:27:48

to a billion people

0:27:50

right i mean practically speaking

0:27:52

if you distribute uh up to a thousand

0:27:55

dollars of gold coins to a billion

0:27:57

people today

0:27:59

there would be a 35

0:28:01

markup slash markdown every time it

0:28:03

trades

0:28:05

right you you pay ninety dollars for

0:28:07

sixty dollars worth of gold

0:28:08

if you have sixty dollars worth of gold

0:28:10

you'd be lucky to sell it for forty

0:28:11

dollars

0:28:13

and so that that uh that transfer cost

0:28:18

is obscene

0:28:20

and then finally you got this division

0:28:22

issue

0:28:23

right how do you divide

0:28:25

a one ounce gold coin

0:28:28

you know you can't and so i can't divide

0:28:31

it so i have to create silver coin and

0:28:33

copper coin

0:28:35

and now i never have the right

0:28:37

combination of change

0:28:39

so prices don't work quite right

0:28:42

so gold has

0:28:44

fundamentally it it's it's the best

0:28:47

tokenized energy in the bronze age

0:28:50

but because of all these

0:28:52

all of these defects

0:28:54

by the middle ages

0:28:57

it was clear it's going to be replaced

0:28:58

with some some type of fiat or some kind

0:29:02

of checking system or other paper ledger

0:29:05

system

0:29:06

i it's not clear to me that they didn't

0:29:08

replace it

0:29:10

i talk about the gold myth

0:29:12

it's not clear to me they didn't replace

0:29:14

it 2 000 years ago like i i you know

0:29:16

they talk about the sumerian tablets

0:29:18

right and the sumerian tablets of clay

0:29:20

they have ledgers on them right so isn't

0:29:23

it quite possible if not likely that we

0:29:26

had checking systems or ledger systems

0:29:30

that were privately enforced by banks

0:29:33

thousands and thousands of years ago

0:29:36

so the gold myth is there never was a

0:29:38

gold standard there was never a time

0:29:41

when all money was gold

0:29:44

what you've all what you had was a time

0:29:46

when the principal asset for store of

0:29:49

value over the long duration was gold

0:29:52

right

0:29:53

and it's quite likely

0:29:56

that you always had uh you know the

0:29:58

merchant

0:29:59

had their ledger and you had a credit

0:30:01

with the merchant yeah and you know

0:30:04

maybe that was a credit with the ancient

0:30:06

roman merchant and maybe that was a

0:30:08

credit with

0:30:09

the town or maybe that was a credit

0:30:12

if you're on a ship anybody's ever been

0:30:14

on a ship

0:30:15

you know sailing for months at a time

0:30:18

you know the quartermaster has all the

0:30:19

supplies

0:30:22

if you wanted some of those cigarettes

0:30:24

or some of that alcohol they might let

0:30:26

you sign it out but then they charge

0:30:28

your account and when the voyage is over

0:30:31

they debit it against your wages

0:30:34

right and so this has been going on for

0:30:36

as long as people have been sailing

0:30:38

ships around

0:30:40

what what we have

0:30:42

is the myth of the gold standard but

0:30:45

we've always had um an asset currency

0:30:49

system and the currency was a check a

0:30:51

checking system

0:30:53

with a central counterparty we can call

0:30:55

them banks today

0:30:58

but we had goldsmiths right that had

0:31:00

gold notes back in the middle ages

0:31:03

and i think you've always had merchants

0:31:05

and you've always had quarter masters

0:31:07

and you've always had the guy in the

0:31:08

army that said you know you lose it

0:31:11

we're going to build your wages we're

0:31:13

going to dock your wages for that

0:31:15

you know whatever it is you lost or

0:31:17

you're spent or are you consumed i think

0:31:19

this is a really important point to zero

0:31:22

in on because what so what gold gave us

0:31:24

was this

0:31:26

reliable

0:31:28

medium for final settlement

0:31:30

but it could only be used for large

0:31:33

transactions essentially because the

0:31:35

economics don't make sense to use it for

0:31:36

small transactions so it doesn't

0:31:38

circulate well but you can settle large

0:31:40

transactions with it

0:31:42

due to that technological limitation of

0:31:45

gold effectively had such a high value

0:31:47

to weight i guess you might say that we

0:31:50

needed these

0:31:51

cheaper

0:31:52

systems these credit systems or

0:31:53

derivative systems systems of deferred

0:31:55

settlement built up around it

0:31:58

and that has been

0:32:00

kind of the problem throughout history

0:32:02

as we we have this system for final

0:32:04

settlement but we build systems of

0:32:05

deferred settlement around it which are

0:32:07

economically more efficient

0:32:09

but if they introduce all of these this

0:32:11

need to trust counterparties which comes

0:32:13

with counterparty risk which blows up

0:32:16

time and time again

0:32:18

and one of the implications of that is

0:32:21

is the social political systems we can

0:32:24

create are small and local

0:32:26

right the implication is city state yes

0:32:29

or uh yeah because i i have to get my

0:32:32

credit from the local merchant so if the

0:32:35

local merchant is a thousand miles away

0:32:37

the credit system doesn't work it breaks

0:32:42

i think you can be you can create a

0:32:43

trust network that goes about 10 miles

0:32:46

or 20 miles yes

0:32:48

it's fascinating trust network out to

0:32:50

the suburbs and then once you get beyond

0:32:52

the suburbs the trust breaks down

0:32:54

and if the trust breaks down

0:32:57

that means you've got renaissance italy

0:33:01

a hundred different city-states and

0:33:03

they've all got their own little

0:33:05

system of trust and ledgers and coinage

0:33:08

and there is no universal money and so

0:33:11

you can't have an easy rise of the

0:33:14

nation state

0:33:16

under a gold standard or a coinage

0:33:19

standard at least it's kind of

0:33:21

challenging right it's fascinating to me

0:33:23

that the the actual

0:33:25

shape

0:33:26

and configuration of our institutions

0:33:29

is derived from the nature of our money

0:33:31

in a way right the reason we have a

0:33:33

central bank is because of gold's

0:33:35

technological limitations so what it

0:33:37

gets me really thinking about is

0:33:39

when you swap out gold for bitcoin how

0:33:41

much how transformational it potentially

0:33:44

is to all the institutions we take for

0:33:46

granted today

0:33:51

i think that what we're what we see is

0:33:53

the progression of money as technology

0:33:55

through the ages

0:33:58

and if you have a better money

0:34:00

you have

0:34:01

a better economy

0:34:03

and as the money gets um

0:34:07

if we come back to this issue of is it

0:34:09

shared

0:34:10

is it immutable is it correct

0:34:14

the the greater the sharing right the

0:34:17

greater the economy the more immutable

0:34:20

the higher integrity you know the higher

0:34:22

efficiency of the economy the more

0:34:25

correct

0:34:26

right the more effective the the economy

0:34:30

the faster the network updates

0:34:33

the faster the economy

0:34:36

so i mean coming back or just finishing

0:34:39

up on goal why does gold fail

0:34:41

in theory why does gold fail in theory

0:34:44

uh it fails because

0:34:47

the base layer protocol is okay it's

0:34:51

kind of god given by nature it's it's

0:34:54

the creation and the smelting of gold

0:34:57

it's okay

0:35:00

it's not um

0:35:03

it's not conservative

0:35:05

the base layer protocol is

0:35:07

is uh

0:35:09

is not conservative um

0:35:13

the application level protocol that one

0:35:15

layer above the base layer or the layer

0:35:18

the application protocol is difficult

0:35:23

dangerous

0:35:25

but what does that mean like so i give

0:35:27

ten blocks of gold that's the base layer

0:35:31

okay well so what are all the

0:35:33

applications of gold

0:35:38

you know you can what can you do with

0:35:38

how many people do you know that can

0:35:39

actually refine or melt down molten gold

0:35:42

and create something with it

0:35:45

that's the dangerous part and the

0:35:47

difficult part so gold applications

0:35:50

they're

0:35:51

they're difficult and they're limited by

0:35:53

the laws of physics

0:35:56

and um

0:35:58

and that just means that and and there

0:36:00

is no application protocol

0:36:04

if i want to do anything

0:36:07

with gold above the layer one is either

0:36:10

a very difficult dangerous application

0:36:13

like gold goblets or gold coins or

0:36:15

something like that

0:36:17

or i have to create the equivalent of

0:36:19

gold check

0:36:20

which is a manually implemented protocol

0:36:25

now we've got the same problem fiat

0:36:27

currency at the point you implement a

0:36:29

gold check you've in essence moved on to

0:36:31

the fiat standard

0:36:33

with a gold reserve of some sort

0:36:37

gold fails primarily because there's no

0:36:40

good application protocol it's not

0:36:42

conservative it's too difficult too slow

0:36:45

too dangerous

0:36:47

and the physicality of it

0:36:49

the physicality of it invites violence

0:36:54

i can literally fire bomb the city kill

0:36:57

everybody in it and the goal won't be

0:36:59

damaged

0:37:00

and so

0:37:01

like when in doubt

0:37:03

shoot first

0:37:04

and then

0:37:05

sift through your clothing and take your

0:37:08

i don't have to worry about any

0:37:10

collateral damage

0:37:13

the last thing in the world you want to

0:37:15

do is be carrying around

0:37:17

immutable money on your person

0:37:21

when someone has an incentive just to

0:37:24

kill the people and take the money right

0:37:27

so that that's the fundamental problem

0:37:28

with gold that's why the gold standard

0:37:30

ultimately has always just been an

0:37:32

invitation to war

0:37:34

and uh never-ending i think

0:37:37

thousands and thousands and thousands of

0:37:41

and uh little many wars right invitation

0:37:43

to criminality imitation of violence if

0:37:46

the criminals don't take your gold then

0:37:49

the counterparties take your gold and

0:37:51

the counterparties don't take your gold

0:37:53

then the go then your own government

0:37:55

takes your gold and your own government

0:37:57

doesn't take your gold the hostile

0:37:58

government takes your gold but

0:38:00

ultimately

0:38:02

gold because of his physicality is is

0:38:05

imperfect property right it is an

0:38:08

imperfect property

0:38:10

and um

0:38:12

and it's imperfect money

0:38:15

because

0:38:16

because the token itself

0:38:20

is so cumbersome and unwieldy

0:38:23

to utilize and this is so it's bronze

0:38:25

age money as you said but this

0:38:28

contention over gold that extends right

0:38:30

up into the 20th century in world war

0:38:32

one world war ii

0:38:33

there's still

0:38:34

massive gold flows taking place

0:38:37

geopolitically

0:38:39

while those nations are at war so it's

0:38:41

almost

0:38:43

i think it's an ill understood aspect of

0:38:45

human history that a lot of

0:38:47

the violence

0:38:49

between countries has been over the gold

0:38:51

or about the gold

0:38:53

um but it's not often discussed in the

0:38:54

history books

0:38:56

yeah when you i mean when you think

0:38:58

about it

0:38:59

you never

0:39:02

you never read a historical account

0:39:06

where someone says

0:39:08

yeah we uh we invaded their country and

0:39:11

we killed everybody so we could take

0:39:13

their paper currency

0:39:14

right

0:39:18

i could give you 5 000 accounts of

0:39:21

we sacked the city we burned it and we

0:39:24

took the gold

0:39:25

you know by the way we might have sacked

0:39:27

the city and haul the people off in

0:39:28

slavery

0:39:30

but we might have taken their livestock

0:39:33

we we prefer to take normally the

0:39:35

livestocks all dead by the time we take

0:39:37

the city though

0:39:38

right so the people are dead

0:39:40

the cattle are dead the food is gone

0:39:43

you know the water is all gone but the

0:39:46

gold's still there yeah

0:39:48

so generally if you look at the first 5

0:39:50

000 years it's we sacked the city we

0:39:52

took the gold then even in the modern

0:39:54

era you know from 1700 1800 1900

0:39:59

you know we we sacked the city uh okay

0:40:02

what do we make off with

0:40:04

there's not that many diamonds so

0:40:05

normally they're not they're not easy to

0:40:07

find there's not

0:40:08

not a lot of that sometimes you know the

0:40:10

nazis took the art right yep

0:40:14

and the nazis took the goal yep right

0:40:17

and so there's a lot of that you know we

0:40:18

took the gold from the treasury

0:40:21

stalin sees the gold during the spanish

0:40:24

civil war you know and the polls had to

0:40:27

smuggle their goal away to keep it from

0:40:29

the nazis

0:40:31

and there's all sorts of examples of

0:40:34

of uh somebody sacking some city or or

0:40:38

rolling over someone's border to take

0:40:40

their gold

0:40:41

um that's because it's takeable

0:40:44

right exactly

0:40:46

it's like uh why do you want to take it

0:40:48

because it's takeable

0:40:51

not a single example like the nazis

0:40:53

didn't want norwegian

0:40:55

you know paper currency they didn't want

0:40:57

swiss paper currency they didn't want

0:40:59

the dutch or the french paper currency

0:41:02

and not many people asked the question

0:41:04

why we didn't take their checks yeah we

0:41:07

didn't take their securities

0:41:10

you know because secure at the end of

0:41:11

the day securities and derivatives and

0:41:14

all these things have no value

0:41:17

maybe the factory has value

0:41:21

if it's not destroyed maybe the people

0:41:24

have value if you get them to work for

0:41:25

you the gold hat you know has value but

0:41:28

the paper doesn't there's some examples

0:41:30

of the opposite actually i think in

0:41:31

japan they had the norbito laboratory

0:41:34

where they were running experiments

0:41:37

where they would bomb their enemies

0:41:39

territory with counterfeit currency

0:41:42

so they would try to go you know they

0:41:44

were the idea was to go and bomb say

0:41:46

england with a bunch of counterfeit

0:41:48

pounds so they could hyperinflate their

0:41:50

currency and disable their economy

0:41:53

so it's like not only do you tie the

0:41:55

paper but you try to actually

0:41:57

inflate the enemies paper

0:42:00

i yeah i think that there's um

0:42:03

there's a lot of examples where hostile

0:42:05

governments would attempt to just

0:42:06

counterfeit the currency of their enemy

0:42:09

to destabilize the regime

0:42:11

but it doesn't get reported a lot in

0:42:14

political history or even military

0:42:16

history

0:42:17

and uh i mean some nations successfully

0:42:20

did it to the u.s but we don't want to

0:42:22

talk about it right

0:42:23

[Music]

0:42:26

you know you won't you won't read that

0:42:27

much but that's

0:42:29

it's an effective thing you could do

0:42:32

well anyway so i think

0:42:34

i think that

0:42:36

that ends my thoughts on gold it's it's

0:42:39

basically

0:42:41

a metallic token and it was our it was

0:42:44

our best idea

0:42:46

but it it seems to have stopped working

0:42:50

thousands of years ago

0:42:52

you could say

0:42:54

you could say a thousand two thousand

0:42:55

years ago almost certainly they had

0:42:57

shared ledgers

0:42:59

and they just used gold as a method of

0:43:02

final settlement

0:43:04

and we know that it

0:43:06

we know that it failed at different

0:43:08

points we know that it was debased and

0:43:11

result in the collapse of the roman

0:43:12

empire and so if rome was the greatest

0:43:15

empire on earth

0:43:17

when their final settlement network

0:43:19

failed

0:43:21

then the empire collapsed

0:43:24

and what you have is just a history is

0:43:26

the endless succession

0:43:29

of successive empires rising up with a

0:43:32

new gold standard that was not debased

0:43:34

and then

0:43:35

and then generation after generation the

0:43:38

coinage of that next empire the

0:43:40

successor empire would be debased and

0:43:43

then that empire would fail and collapse

0:43:46

and then another empire would come along

0:43:48

and they would start the cycle over and

0:43:50

over again

0:43:52

and and yet the myth of gold as as uh

0:43:56

immutable money

0:43:58

right or or the sovereign store of value

0:44:01

it stayed with us for thousands of years

0:44:04

into the 20th century

0:44:07

i would say that the gold standard has

0:44:08

been dying a slow death

0:44:10

a death by a thousand cuts

0:44:14

1914 comes along

0:44:17

you know we've got we've got the golden

0:44:18

age from whatever eighteen seven in

0:44:20

nineteen 1914 but then world war one

0:44:22

comes along and then in 1914

0:44:25

every country abandons the gold standard

0:44:28

and maybe that's the final cut

0:44:32

after world war one

0:44:35

you know in the treaty of genoa we came

0:44:37

back to a goal reserve standard

0:44:39

and in essence we had gold backing the

0:44:44

and that degree of backing

0:44:46

successively slid so there was a

0:44:48

debasement of the pound and the dollar

0:44:50

consistently and gradually and then of

0:44:53

course the

0:44:55

you know the the pound and the dollar

0:44:57

became layer two applications if you

0:45:00

will and then every other currency

0:45:02

became a layer 3 derivative

0:45:05

and then everything else in the economy

0:45:07

was built on those derivatives so

0:45:09

you had basically layers of derivatives

0:45:12

of gold that got progressively

0:45:15

less backed by tangible energy that

0:45:18

would be nurtured

0:45:21

and that resulted in you know who knows

0:45:23

how many collapses

0:45:25

the great depression eventually get

0:45:27

world war ii

0:45:28

which you could say you know came out of

0:45:30

just a bunch of economic collapses like

0:45:32

the weimar republic

0:45:35

all the gold ended up getting

0:45:37

centralized

0:45:39

you know and seized by the americans and

0:45:41

fort knox

0:45:43

and then we wrapped bretton woods around

0:45:45

and bretton woods was the second gold

0:45:47

reserve standard of this century

0:45:50

except this time it's just the dollar

0:45:51

was the reserve currency

0:45:54

backed some percentage by gold say 40

0:45:56

percent or 30 buy gold and then every

0:45:59

year thereafter it slid from 40 to 30

0:46:03

to 20.

0:46:06

i shudder to say right it must have been

0:46:07

less than 10

0:46:09

by 1971.

0:46:12

and in 1971 we defaulted on the gold

0:46:15

standard

0:46:17

and in essence at that point right the

0:46:20

gold standard was though the gold

0:46:22

reserve standard was effectively dead

0:46:24

right

0:46:25

gold still has the fiction of being a

0:46:27

store of value

0:46:29

and an asset

0:46:31

and if you're looking for a

0:46:33

non-sovereign store of value

0:46:36

between 1971

0:46:40

the invention of bitcoin

0:46:43

you could have gone to gold i guess you

0:46:44

could have used property like land or

0:46:47

commodities timber rights oil rights

0:46:50

something like that

0:46:53

and you could have used art

0:46:56

there's probably there's probably no one

0:46:58

king right people dabble with is is

0:47:00

silver you know a store of value

0:47:03

i think the free market

0:47:05

went back and forth but it's it's pretty

0:47:07

clear that gold kind of died

0:47:10

it started dying if not it died as a

0:47:12

store of value about 10 years ago

0:47:16

as far as i can see

0:47:18

when bitcoin was

0:47:20

was formed and

0:47:21

if we look at performance in the last 12

0:47:23

months

0:47:25

right let's

0:47:26

just for for kicks let's just go and and

0:47:30

look at 12 months of performance

0:47:35

it's quite a day right in 12 months

0:47:38

bitcoin is up 240 percent

0:47:41

gold is down

0:47:43

9.82 percent

0:47:47

over the course of 10 years bitcoin is

0:47:49

up 132 percent compounded annual growth

0:47:53

gold is 94 basis points

0:47:56

the s p indexes is 13.9

0:48:00

over 10 years

0:48:02

33 percent over one year

0:48:06

and um

0:48:11

summary right is store gold is not a

0:48:11

store of value in the last decade it's

0:48:15

something

0:48:16

opposite of a store of

0:48:18

value if the s p is up 33 in 12 months

0:48:23

then a reasonable surrogate for

0:48:26

the collapse of purchasing power of the

0:48:29

currency in 12 months is

0:48:32

you know the inverse of that right but

0:48:34

you could say you need 33.7

0:48:37

more money to buy us the same share of

0:48:39

the s p yep

0:48:42

so a store of value has to clock at 33

0:48:45

or better

0:48:47

and gold is minus 40 percent

0:48:51

and bitcoin is plus 200 percent

0:48:55

so that's

0:48:56

that's the marketplace screaming at you

0:49:00

no one really sees

0:49:02

the gold as a monetary asset anymore

0:49:07

except for the gold bugs yeah

0:49:10

one of the key points that jumps out of

0:49:11

me here is getting back to your

0:49:13

framework of ideal money is that

0:49:16

immutable quality

0:49:19

necessitates a proof of work

0:49:22

and gold again was just the best

0:49:23

approximation of that right that's

0:49:25

really the only thing that ever made

0:49:27

gold money was this proof of work

0:49:29

necessary to produce it was really

0:49:31

difficult to produce

0:49:32

therefore it minimized counterparty risk

0:49:36

it was the best it was the best token

0:49:38

that you could work to produce that you

0:49:41

could you could possibly mold into a

0:49:44

coin right but then lost relevance in a

0:49:46

globalizing society because it wasn't

0:49:48

fast enough

0:49:51

not not fast enough not smart enough not

0:49:54

smart not strong enough

0:49:57

everything that lives in a darwinian

0:49:59

world has to be faster smarter stronger

0:50:03

yes adaptive

0:50:05

you know i the cicadas came after 17

0:50:09

years and i saw them

0:50:11

a month or two ago

0:50:12

and they all come out of the ground at

0:50:14

the same time and i watched those

0:50:15

cicadas fly around my home and i thought

0:50:18

those are the stupidest

0:50:20

slowest weakest creatures i've ever seen

0:50:23

sometimes they would like fly to a

0:50:26

branch and they couldn't land on a

0:50:28

branch they were literally so stupid

0:50:30

they couldn't land on a branch they

0:50:32

could barely fly fast they would you

0:50:35

know a lot of them would just

0:50:36

accidentally fly into the dirt and slam

0:50:39

into the dirt so

0:50:41

when you looked at them and you compared

0:50:42

them to other insects

0:50:44

you saw those other insects are so much

0:50:47

better at flying

0:50:49

right you never really you never you

0:50:51

take it for granted right but you never

0:50:53

think oh those birds are good at flying

0:50:55

they're fast and strong and smart

0:50:58

until you see something that isn't fast

0:51:00

and isn't strong and isn't smart

0:51:03

and you say well this thing is pretty

0:51:05

much you know

0:51:07

history how could it possibly survive

0:51:09

and the answer is

0:51:11

they all have to birth once every 17

0:51:14

years and there's a million of them in

0:51:16

the air and they're all so stupid and

0:51:19

and inept that they're definitely going

0:51:21

to die but

0:51:23

all the other creatures aren't going to

0:51:24

be able to kill them fast enough to keep

0:51:26

some of them from procreating right so

0:51:29

the quantity of quality strategy

0:51:32

yeah and i i think gold it just

0:51:35

eventually it fails because it's not

0:51:37

strong enough it's not fast enough it's

0:51:39

not smart enough

0:51:41

and the world goes to the next best

0:51:43

thing and fiat arrives arises

0:51:47

not because it's better than bitcoin but

0:51:49

because there is no such thing as

0:51:50

cryptography

0:51:52

and and computing so in a world without

0:51:55

computers and without cryptography and

0:51:57

without networks

0:51:59

you know you ask yourself what are you

0:52:01

going to do next the answer is

0:52:03

i'm going to come up with a shared

0:52:07

ledger

0:52:09

i i do have math

0:52:11

we got algebra we got calculus

0:52:14

i i do have writing i i can't create a

0:52:17

shared ledger

0:52:18

and uh the immutable part

0:52:21

is going to come from

0:52:23

the institutional credibility the

0:52:25

credibility of the proprietor and the

0:52:27

reputation of the proprietor whether

0:52:29

that's a king

0:52:30

or a mayor

0:52:32

or an owner

0:52:35

or religion

0:52:37

right but it comes from the immutability

0:52:40

and the credibility comes from uh

0:52:43

institutional human source

0:52:45

and the greater the institution

0:52:48

the greater the monetary system

0:52:51

and you have the greatest

0:52:53

monetary systems of of history

0:52:57

associated with the greatest

0:52:58

institutions and then you have the

0:53:00

weakest ones

0:53:01

all the way down

0:53:03

to you know

0:53:05

somebody on an 80-foot sailing ship in

0:53:08

the middle of the atlantic and there's a

0:53:10

ledger

0:53:11

and there's a quartermaster and there's

0:53:14

42 people

0:53:16

and that's their money system and

0:53:17

they're trading

0:53:19

it's a money system which is good for

0:53:20

six weeks or eight weeks

0:53:23

but it is life or death

0:53:26

for the eight weeks

0:53:28

and that is the fiat standard and that's

0:53:30

backed by the force of the captain

0:53:33

right yeah

0:53:35

you have a good captain you might make

0:53:37

it and if you have a bad captain there's

0:53:38

gonna be a mutiny

0:53:41

yeah right maybe i was gonna die it's a

0:53:44

great

0:53:45

framework i love i love the framework of

0:53:47

property and energy because it

0:53:49

there's also this deeper

0:53:51

notion that

0:53:52

you know most

0:53:54

species are territorial

0:53:56

most social species especially and that

0:53:58

includes humans i think we actually

0:54:00

express and manage our territoriality

0:54:03

through property

0:54:04

and so every little

0:54:06

enclave right whether it's a boat on the

0:54:08

ocean or a large piece of land tries to

0:54:12

control its most important form of

0:54:13

property because it's an expression of

0:54:15

its of managing its territory

0:54:17

and that's why we have these you know

0:54:19

regional monopolies on money we call

0:54:21

central banks

0:54:23

so that was episode 10 of the sailor

0:54:27

series

0:54:28

uh titled the death of gold

0:54:31

and i think sailor did an excellent job

0:54:34

you know firstly

0:54:35

answering the question what is money

0:54:39

and you know this is clearly a question

0:54:41

with a lot of answers

0:54:43

but i think he's distilled it nicely

0:54:46

into this concept of tokenized

0:54:50

socio-political energy or

0:54:53

uh i think as he said was tokenized

0:54:55

energy

0:54:56

within a socio-political framework

0:54:59

so in the first nine episodes of the

0:55:01

sailor series we weren't really deep

0:55:03

on the first principles of energy

0:55:05

anthropology

0:55:08

and technology really building all the

0:55:10

way from the stone age into modernity

0:55:13

and in that series

0:55:15

one of the main tenets was that money is

0:55:18

another definition of mine it was the

0:55:20

highest form of energy

0:55:21

a human can channel

0:55:24

and um this is very fundamental to the

0:55:26

purpose of life because what life is

0:55:28

doing is it's channeling energy across

0:55:30

space and time to try and satisfy

0:55:32

certain names

0:55:34

whether they be

0:55:35

instinctual aims like those of plants or

0:55:37

animals

0:55:38

or purposeful aims like those of humans

0:55:41

and this uh extra condition of putting

0:55:44

it within a socio-political framework i

0:55:46

think really frames it nicely

0:55:52

in insofar as what humans deal with uh

0:55:52

in our actual existence in the world

0:55:55

you know the socio aspect of

0:55:57

sociopolitical refers to social

0:55:59

interaction

0:56:01

which i would distinguish this as trade

0:56:04

specifically

0:56:06

you know voluntary exchange so

0:56:11

market actors two counterparties

0:56:14

willingly negotiating and executing a

0:56:16

trade

0:56:18

in a way that they both perceive

0:56:19

themselves to be better off after the

0:56:21

trade is completed

0:56:23

this is in fact

0:56:26

how value is created in the world

0:56:28

right i value the potatoes you have more

0:56:32

than the apples i have to trade

0:56:34

you value the opposite therefore we both

0:56:37

trade we both believe that we're better

0:56:39

off after the trade

0:56:41

and that's how really economic value

0:56:43

creation works

0:56:45

so that's clearly a very important part

0:56:48

of the socio-political term the second

0:56:50

part of that referring to politics or

0:56:52

the political framework

0:56:57

we really have to look at what that term

0:56:57

means political

0:57:00

in my mind it is

0:57:03

the imposition of one

0:57:06

will power

0:57:07

on to another or you could say in in the

0:57:10

macro sense an aggregate of human

0:57:12

willpower onto another

0:57:15

and this involves

0:57:17

coercion frankly you know it's a form of

0:57:19

involuntary exchange if you will

0:57:23

there's a great line by klauswitz who's

0:57:25

a philosopher

0:57:27

on he's a martial philosopher so on

0:57:29

warfare

0:57:30

and he says that quote

0:57:36

war is the continuation of politics by

0:57:36

other means unquote

0:57:39

what he means by that is we're you know

0:57:40

we essentially use politics

0:57:43

as a mechanism for sorting out our

0:57:44

differences

0:57:47

in a way that hopefully prevents

0:57:49

armed conflict or violent conflict

0:57:52

but often can lead to it so

0:57:56

within

0:57:57

the realm of human affairs we have we're

0:57:59

basically dealing with two forms of

0:58:00

exchange all the time right exchange

0:58:02

that we can enter into voluntarily that

0:58:04

creates value

0:58:06

but we also face the threat of

0:58:07

involuntary exchange in terms of theft

0:58:10

taxation inflation confiscation

0:58:15

you know violence anything like this so

0:58:18

the point there

0:58:20

you know

0:58:21

with money as tokenized energy in this

0:58:23

socio-political framework

0:58:26

the whole

0:58:27

premise of the socio-political framework

0:58:30

is to create

0:58:32

collective energy efficiency through

0:58:34

trade

0:58:36

but it has to be done in a way that

0:58:38

protects that economic enclave from

0:58:41

involuntary exchange that's what the

0:58:43

purpose of government is in fact

0:58:45

is to monopolize violence and coercion

0:58:49

and compulsion and protect market actors

0:58:51

from those forces so that they can trade

0:58:53

productively

0:58:55

and um

0:58:58

you know politics itself then you could

0:59:01

say its premise on the threat of force

0:59:04

so this is

0:59:05

an interesting way to think about it

0:59:07

because if

0:59:08

you know politics is always a phenomenon

0:59:10

in human affairs at a micro scale but in

0:59:13

a macro scale if property

0:59:16

could not be transgressed against if you

0:59:18

could not be

0:59:21

if your property could not be stolen you

0:59:23

kind of could not be put to the point of

0:59:25

a gun to doing something you would have

0:59:28

lower regard for the political leanings

0:59:30

of others you would just ignore it

0:59:31

frankly

0:59:35

politics has been very influential

0:59:38

on human affairs precisely because

0:59:41

property

0:59:42

has been vulnerable to confiscation

0:59:45

and gold in this lens is no different

0:59:47

you know gold

0:59:49

it is it was actually selected as money

0:59:52

um as a result of this

0:59:55

confluence of cross purposes across

0:59:57

history

0:59:58

where people are you know there's a game

1:00:00

theoretic process going on where people

1:00:01

are trying to hold

1:00:03

the asset most resistant to inflation

1:00:06

dilution and confiscation

1:00:09

and in a medium that satisfies the other

1:00:11

properties of money like you know

1:00:13

divisibility durability recognizability

1:00:16

portability and scarcity

1:00:19

through that process gold was selected

1:00:21

and promoted as money because it was the

1:00:26

least dilutable most

1:00:29

uh economically dense medium we had

1:00:31

available to us

1:00:36

but it had many shortcomings which

1:00:36

sailor you know brilliantly elaborates

1:00:39

in this episode

1:00:41

and um

1:00:43

so getting when we start to look at

1:00:45

bitcoin

1:00:50

you know it's the first

1:00:50

digital

1:00:51

money and

1:00:53

this may seem a bit complicated at first

1:00:55

because we're all used to using

1:00:57

electronic credit cards and you know we

1:00:59

have online banking and whatnot today

1:01:01

none of that money is natively digital

1:01:04

which means that its supply

1:01:07

is not

1:01:09

enforced in digital space right it's all

1:01:11

a derivative of

1:01:14

the central bank frankly the central

1:01:15

bank is the arbiter of of how much money

1:01:18

is in circulation

1:01:20

um to some extent there are there

1:01:22

there's a bigger picture to that and

1:01:24

kind of the secondary

1:01:26

uh second and third tier banks plus euro

1:01:28

dollar markets and things like that but

1:01:29

in general uh central bank

1:01:31

holds soy over the money supply

1:01:34

and so with bitcoin we have

1:01:36

a very interesting new tool and that we

1:01:39

have a money

1:01:41

that has perfected the mapping

1:01:43

actually between

1:01:45

the sociopolitical and the energy

1:01:49

domains so

1:01:52

you know again the purpose of trade is

1:01:54

to produce energy efficiency

1:01:57

and whoever does that

1:01:59

whoever's um

1:02:01

satisfying the wants of consumers more

1:02:03

efficiently than others is rewarded with

1:02:05

profits

1:02:07

and those profits draw in other

1:02:08

competitors and that's how uh markets

1:02:11

essentially over time lower prices and

1:02:12

create innovation

1:02:14

um and that's how competition you know

1:02:16

in a darwinian sense really sharpens us

1:02:19

as both market actors and organisms

1:02:24

with bitcoin we have this

1:02:26

mapping to

1:02:28

the socio-political domain but it's it's

1:02:32

it's a mapping that's done in a way

1:02:35

this is the the fixed supply of 21

1:02:37

million maps perfectly to

1:02:39

the scarcity of time and energy which is

1:02:41

a thermodynamic reality

1:02:44

which is

1:02:45

you know beneath the reason it is

1:02:47

upholding the reason

1:02:49

for trade for competition for innovation

1:02:52

it's it's uh people

1:02:54

or even in a natural ecosystem animals

1:02:57

competing over scarce resources

1:02:59

um so the medium that communicates and

1:03:02

coordinates the market process is money

1:03:05

by definition

1:03:06

so we needed something that mapped on to

1:03:08

the scarcity of time and energy and

1:03:10

bitcoin does that perfectly

1:03:12

and that's why it's such a fundamental

1:03:13

breakthrough um as i've argued much more

1:03:16

writing a one-time discovery

1:03:20

with every other money

1:03:23

trust has always been necessary and

1:03:26

trust in humans has been necessary to

1:03:28

secure the network and this is

1:03:31

often if not always ended in corruption

1:03:34

and failure

1:03:36

um so sailor lays out this

1:03:39

you know kind of starting with the end

1:03:40

in mind

1:03:41

if we had an ideal money in the world

1:03:43

what would that look like

1:03:49

and it would very essentially be as we

1:03:49

covered a shared

1:03:51

immutable

1:03:53

mathematically correct

1:03:55

and complete ledger so

1:03:58

again if we're mapping

1:04:01

purchasing power which money holds

1:04:05

on to the market actors

1:04:07

that have earned it

1:04:10

there is no

1:04:11

better

1:04:12

ideal than that than this

1:04:14

shared immutable

1:04:16

mathematically correct and complete

1:04:18

ledger this this spreadsheet in the sky

1:04:20

if you will that no one can tamper with

1:04:24

it's an interesting thought experiment

1:04:26

because it's um

1:04:29

it makes sense for what an ideal money

1:04:32

would look like and then it also

1:04:34

overlays very nicely with what bitcoin

1:04:37

functionally is

1:04:41

this may be you know as we're

1:04:43

positing here

1:04:45

kind of an evolution

1:04:47

in money

1:04:50

this tokenized energy in a

1:04:51

socio-political framework has always

1:04:53

been very vulnerable

1:04:55

to politics to

1:04:57

theft coercion war violence all these

1:05:00

modes of involuntary exchange

1:05:03

but it seems with bitcoin that we may

1:05:07

perhaps evolved

1:05:09

from a political

1:05:11

monetary standard

1:05:13

to an engineered monetary standard so

1:05:15

something

1:05:17

much more like the second or kilogram

1:05:21

the metric system right some

1:05:23

universal protocol

1:05:25

that is shared and agreed upon by

1:05:27

everyone

1:05:29

uh and

1:05:30

because of that consensus cannot be

1:05:32

easily tampered with

1:05:34

um or distorted and that's a really big

1:05:37

breakthrough uh in terms of human

1:05:39

cooperation because again this is

1:05:41

money is the medium that binds us

1:05:44

uh you know you

1:05:46

as a human may know 150 people on a

1:05:49

first name basis right that's the dunbar

1:05:51

number

1:05:52

uh that anthropologists have talked

1:05:54

about

1:05:55

but we are connected to the other eight

1:05:58

billion people in the world through

1:06:00

money that is this medium

1:06:03

interconnects us through trade

1:06:05

effectively

1:06:06

and if that medium can be distorted or

1:06:09

twisted

1:06:10

then it corrupts

1:06:12

these trade relationships and it breaks

1:06:15

the the energy efficiency we derive from

1:06:17

the division of labor

1:06:19

and that's that's largely what we're

1:06:20

dealing with today

1:06:22

with central banks

1:06:30

we zoomed out and looked at the history

1:06:30

of money to really explain how gold has

1:06:33

died or is dying a slow death

1:06:36

and one of the first places we started

1:06:38

was coinage

1:06:40

which was introduced really to improve

1:06:43

the divisibility

1:06:44

of money of gold and silver specifically

1:06:48

and to reduce transaction cost

1:06:52

again gold was this tool that was

1:06:54

excellent for storing value across time

1:06:57

but it was very limited in its ability

1:06:59

to express value across space because of

1:07:01

its physicality

1:07:03

its security costs limited to visibility

1:07:06

so coinage was

1:07:08

introduced as like a technological

1:07:10

augmentation

1:07:12

to overcome this insufficiency of gold

1:07:17

um as sailor said before you can

1:07:19

decompose money into kind of the

1:07:21

currency

1:07:22

component and the the asset component

1:07:26

so we could say that gold was an

1:07:28

excellent asset and that it held value

1:07:30

over time

1:07:31

relatively well

1:07:33

but it was a terrible currency right it

1:07:35

did not again currency like current it

1:07:37

did not flow well it was not a

1:07:40

readily transactable money

1:07:43

which limited its its liquidity and

1:07:45

transactability

1:07:47

and so coins

1:07:49

were this augmentation introduced

1:07:52

to improve that and they're also uh

1:07:55

coins were also an attempt

1:07:57

as sailor said to make authentication

1:07:59

self-evident

1:08:03

this would have been

1:08:06

aimed at reducing transaction costs in a

1:08:08

trade so that every time you go to trade

1:08:10

something for gold you did not have to

1:08:13

and weigh the gold and test its

1:08:15

authenticity

1:08:17

and you know

1:08:18

run it through all these different

1:08:19

techniques to say it you could save

1:08:22

time energy and effort by

1:08:25

relying on the

1:08:27

the issuer whoever issued the coin

1:08:30

uh the seal that they placed on it would

1:08:32

basically be a seal of legitimacy right

1:08:34

saying this is

1:08:36

24 ounces pure gold whatever it may be

1:08:39

and you could just depend on the

1:08:40

reputation of the issuer versus having

1:08:43

to assay the gold at every transaction

1:08:45

so this

1:08:47

the intent of this at least with coinage

1:08:49

was to radically decrease the

1:08:52

transaction costs which it in fact did

1:08:54

for for a long time

1:08:57

another way to say this is that you know

1:08:58

again back to the five properties of

1:09:00

money

1:09:01

this was intended to improve the

1:09:03

recognizability feature so people could

1:09:06

recognize coins

1:09:08

uh they would know with a high degree of

1:09:10

certainty that they were authentic and

1:09:12

they could be relied upon without having

1:09:15

to expend all these resources verifying

1:09:17

them themselves

1:09:19

so what this gave us

1:09:22

again if we're talking about this ideal

1:09:23

money this standard shared immutable

1:09:26

ledger right a standard of value if you

1:09:29

coinage was a step towards

1:09:31

standardization right different

1:09:34

regional monopolies

1:09:36

that controlled property a certain area

1:09:38

would issue their coinage

1:09:39

and standardize it to a certain to

1:09:42

certain denominations

1:09:43

so that they could transact with very

1:09:45

low friction right so you could keep uh

1:09:47

the economic machine moving

1:09:51

but this standardization

1:09:53

you know we talked about standardization

1:09:55

uh earlier in the series as well in its

1:09:56

relationship to monopolization

1:09:59

it comes at the cost of centralization

1:10:02

so you end up trusting that issuer right

1:10:04

this one singular counterparty gains a

1:10:07

lot of power

1:10:08

over the entire economic network

1:10:10

and this gets you into system i'm sorry

1:10:12

it gets you into problems like

1:10:14

the money changers

1:10:16

and uh

1:10:18

you know every time you're transacting

1:10:19

from one currency to another they're

1:10:20

going to take a little bit of rent

1:10:22

out of that that trade which would be

1:10:24

necessary

1:10:25

more and more necessary for a

1:10:26

globalizing society as you have to trade

1:10:28

across jurisdictions

1:10:30

um you know there's another way to say

1:10:32

that is energy loss every time you

1:10:34

transform from one energy to another

1:10:36

this is true in the physical world as

1:10:39

it's equally true in the financial world

1:10:40

as it is in the physical world

1:10:43

and importantly and what really you know

1:10:45

destroys

1:10:47

gold's um

1:10:49

ability to serve as a good money is the

1:10:51

fact that

1:10:53

the economics of it

1:10:55

force it to be centralized

1:10:57

you need this issuer so it can be more

1:10:59

transactable across space

1:11:01

and with that centralization comes

1:11:03

corruption right

1:11:06

issuer gains essentially absolute power

1:11:08

over the money and as we know thanks to

1:11:10

lord acton absolute power corrupts

1:11:12

absolutely

1:11:15

so we then went into some problems with

1:11:18

the gold standard um

1:11:20

and i think this is well described that

1:11:23

you know we've covered why gold was

1:11:26

selected as money that again as

1:11:29

people are trading

1:11:31

um trying to satisfy the wants of others

1:11:34

profitably

1:11:35

you have a direct financial incentive to

1:11:37

store those profits in a medium that

1:11:40

cannot be debased that you cannot be

1:11:42

stolen from

1:11:44

and again

1:11:45

gold was

1:11:46

of all the monetary metals it was the

1:11:48

one that exhibited

1:11:49

exhibited the greatest scarcity

1:11:53

another way to say that is

1:11:55

it exhibited the greatest inflation

1:11:56

resistance

1:11:58

and sailor describes inflation actually

1:12:02

typically um across history

1:12:05

at least over the past 50 years i think

1:12:07

longer as well but

1:12:09

the rate of gold inflation

1:12:12

averages about two percent per year

1:12:14

so you know with relative certainty

1:12:17

that you're only going to be debased or

1:12:19

diluted as a gold holder at a rate of

1:12:21

about two percent per year which means

1:12:24

your your wealth is getting cut in half

1:12:25

roughly every 35 years

1:12:28

but the advantage there again was was

1:12:30

his predictability

1:12:32

and you know sailor in his engineering

1:12:34

mind he describes it as the error rate

1:12:37

which i think is a great way to look at

1:12:38

it it's

1:12:40

gold was chosen

1:12:43

as a as this mechanism for trade as this

1:12:45

medium portrayed because it had the

1:12:47

lowest error rate right anything else

1:12:49

that you selected had a higher error and

1:12:52

therefore

1:12:54

if you chose it as a market actor you

1:12:56

would be

1:12:57

selected unfavorably against in free

1:12:59

market competition right anyone that

1:13:01

chose gold you chose silver you would

1:13:02

effectively get out competed because

1:13:04

your money had a higher error rate than

1:13:09

but the caveat here and this is very

1:13:11

important with kohl's

1:13:12

is that that two percent is an average

1:13:15

it's not perfect

1:13:17

and in fact it can explode right it can

1:13:19

explode for a number of reasons

1:13:21

um we could have an innovation

1:13:24

breakthrough right uh alchemy

1:13:27

you know alchemists all over the world

1:13:29

spent a lot of effort trying to figure

1:13:30

out how to synthesize uh gold from lead

1:13:34

if there was ever a technological

1:13:36

breakthrough that gold could be

1:13:38

manufactured in a lab profitably you

1:13:41

know at

1:13:42

at a cost per ounce below the market

1:13:44

price

1:13:46

that would be very

1:13:47

um devastating

1:13:50

to gold to the error rate of gold the

1:13:52

supply could explode and its value would

1:13:54

implode

1:13:56

or as we you know

1:13:58

what we have actually seen historically

1:14:00

are these these uh discoveries you know

1:14:02

like the gold bonanza in south america

1:14:05

where all of a sudden um

1:14:07

you know these certain conquerors or

1:14:09

explorers stumble upon a new

1:14:11

stash of gold and then they sell it into

1:14:13

the market so that error rate you know

1:14:16

everyone's thinking it's two percent

1:14:17

year over year inflation well all of a

1:14:19

sudden you can get a 20 year or worse

1:14:24

and finally you know war war

1:14:28

clearly um can cause the market of gold

1:14:31

to be flooded as well for the same

1:14:33

reasons if one country conquers another

1:14:35

and they go and liquidate their gold

1:14:36

holdings um that can have a big effect

1:14:39

on that error rate of gold

1:14:42

which gets into another major problem

1:14:44

with gold is that you know it's

1:14:45

vulnerable to confiscation

1:14:51

prone to physical theft

1:14:59

it doesn't have the you know it's it's

1:14:59

protected from inflation much more than

1:15:01

fiat for instance

1:15:03

but it's because it's a bearer asset

1:15:06

and that essentially it's whoever

1:15:08

possesses the gold

1:15:10

is presumed to be its rightful holder

1:15:12

right it's a as an asset it's 100 equity

1:15:15

and zero percent liability it's no one

1:15:17

else's

1:15:19

no one else has a claim on it if i hold

1:15:21

physical gold that's it it's a bare

1:15:23

asset so

1:15:25

when it is confiscated because it's a

1:15:27

physical bearer asset if it is

1:15:28

confiscated that's it you don't have

1:15:31

recourse to anyone or anything to try

1:15:32

and get it back

1:15:37

so that's a big problem and actually

1:15:37

relates to

1:15:40

uh you know gold inviting violence

1:15:42

effectively you know say that makes a

1:15:44

point that you can firebomb the city

1:15:46

destroy everything but the gold remains

1:15:49

intact you know it's a very durable

1:15:51

metal and

1:15:53

at that point you really don't need

1:15:55

because it's physical you don't need

1:15:56

anyone's permission to confiscate it

1:16:01

the physicality you know we keep coming

1:16:03

back to

1:16:05

that being at the core of gold's problem

1:16:08

and it just doesn't hold up to our ideal

1:16:10

standard of money

1:16:12

uh again the shared

1:16:14

immutable mathematically correct and

1:16:16

complete ledger this thing

1:16:18

that by definition

1:16:21

has to be non-corporeal has to be

1:16:23

intangible non-physical gold simply

1:16:26

cannot be that

1:16:28

and in fact what we've seen throughout

1:16:30

history are attempts

1:16:33

at the market um

1:16:35

to get closer to that ideal from gold

1:16:38

that was us abstracting

1:16:40

gold into paper currencies or or

1:16:42

building credit systems or derivative

1:16:45

systems on top of it to make it faster

1:16:47

smarter better you know to make it more

1:16:49

adaptive in a pure darwinian sense and

1:16:53

the the achilles heel of that

1:16:56

attempt to make gold more adaptive has

1:16:59

always been

1:17:01

humans we've always corrupted the system

1:17:03

whatever system we've created on top of

1:17:06

it has been corruptable

1:17:09

and since money is

1:17:10

you know the most powerful incentive in

1:17:12

the world

1:17:13

it has led to the corruption of every

1:17:15

social institution that has tried to do

1:17:19

the latest of which would be the central

1:17:20

bank which

1:17:22

for the past 50 years has been

1:17:23

completely unmoored from gold

1:17:27

and we could say is essentially a fully

1:17:29

fraudulent

1:17:30

globalized currency counterfeiting

1:17:32

operation as a result

1:17:37

it's interesting that you know it's

1:17:39

the institutions

1:17:41

the institutional configuration we have

1:17:43

in the world like we just mentioned the

1:17:45

central bank

1:17:47

is derivative of these technological

1:17:49

limitations of gold so it's like the

1:17:53

that's so important for binding us

1:17:55

together whatever limitations

1:17:58

or failings it has they actually

1:18:00

manifest themselves in our socioeconomic

1:18:02

systems

1:18:05

you know that's it it's gold is just

1:18:08

in a very matter-of-fact darwinian sense

1:18:11

where

1:18:13

what did charles owen say it's not the

1:18:14

fastest smartest strongest or most

1:18:16

intelligent species that survives is the

1:18:18

one that's most adaptive to change

1:18:21

gold is simply too slow dumb weak

1:18:25

non-adaptive etc it just

1:18:28

it does one function really well and

1:18:31

that is

1:18:34

its supply

1:18:36

uh expectations over time right when i

1:18:40

say really well i mean relative to

1:18:41

everything else we've had in the

1:18:43

physical domain

1:18:45

but again with the discovery of bitcoin

1:18:48

we for the first time in human history

1:18:51

have an asset with a

1:18:52

guaranteed fixed immutable supply

1:19:00

can do that because of its

1:19:01

non-physicality the fact that it's not

1:19:03

physical

1:19:05

means that bitcoin can have this

1:19:06

property of absolute scarcity we

1:19:08

couldn't do that with anything physical

1:19:09

there's no

1:19:11

it is impossible to guarantee the supply

1:19:13

of any physical item right anything

1:19:15

physical subject to counterfeit so

1:19:18

we needed this

1:19:20

mathematical

1:19:22

competitive economic network to um

1:19:26

to zero in on this shelling point if you

1:19:28

will which is like a focus point in game

1:19:31

theory

1:19:32

of a fixed supply all right and there's

1:19:34

constantly energy and effort uh

1:19:37

being poured into that

1:19:38

to secure it

1:19:42

you know in a world of endless darwinian

1:19:45

competition even in the sphere of money

1:19:48

gold is simply not cut out to survive

1:19:51

um and through that same lens we could

1:19:53

say that bitcoin is is very simply the

1:19:55

apex predator of money as many people

1:19:57

have said

1:20:00

that was it for episode 10. uh i'll see

1:20:02

you guys back here soon for episode 11.

1:20:04

we're going to be diving into the

1:20:06

failings of fiat

1:20:08

[Music]

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