Michael Saylor Interview: The Future of Bitcoin - Part 1
Bitcoin Magazine · 2022-07-14 · 59m · View on YouTube →
ladies and gentlemen
welcome to the latest episode of the
wake up podcast and i have finally
managed to wrangle
the one and only michael sailor to come
join me for what i think is going to be
a
deep and multi-faceted conversation so
mike thank you for taking the time to
come and jump on man you're very
generous with your time
yeah thanks for having me alex
absolutely man
um look there's so many
a bunch of places where i want to open
this up and so many threads we can pull
on
but i wanted to
just start off with some basics and just
reiterate forever on why we're here why
bitcoin is important what money is
and then we can kind of explore
you know i don't want to spend too much
time on the noise and what's happening
in the world today because you know
bitcoins up down and around in circles
and who really gives a shit like you
know your time frame really matters here
but
i'd love to start with
uh
how you've in the past separated
money and currency and
because i think people conflate those
two
all the time and and i'd like to discuss
what is different about the two
yeah well um
i think oftentimes uh we use
concepts like money in a very sloppy
fashion and people use money
uh
and currency as though they're
synonymous
and uh i i don't really think there's
been a lot of deep thinking about this i
mean i i could honestly say
before bitcoin i didn't really think
that deeply about it i was i was
prompted to think deeply about it when
robert breedlove invited me on to his
show what is money
and i thought
wow we're going to talk about what is
money so i guess i better figure it out
and so then i s
i started to think
and uh
now i i think it's
it's helpful um if you adopt these kind
of definitions
noting that we're so early in this
journey that 95 of the world hasn't
thought deeply about it and probably
you'd have they would probably use these
these words or terms differently and
many many people even economists and
business people don't really know what
money is or they just define it sloppily
in in the context so here's here's what
i think are the useful definitions and
then we can have a discussion
i think money is economic energy
if you have a certain amount of economic
energy let's say you have a hundred
thousand dollars of economic energy in
the year 2022
that will uh that can be exchanged for
products or services or property
right i can
i can fly somewhere i can buy something
i can
you know throw a party in the year 2022.
clearly a hundred thousand dollars worth
of money in 2022 doesn't buy you the
same uh good services
or products in the year 1900.
they'll buy you a lot more
and in the year uh
2200
won't buy you the same thing either so
so you have a certain amount of money
at a certain time that you can measure
in a currency the currency in this case
the us dollar is the medium of exchange
in that political frame of reference
at the time you have the money
so if money is economic energy
what happens as you change political
frames of reference a hundred thousand
dollars
buys you a certain amount in the us and
if you go to japan
well it doesn't buy you anything because
they don't accept dollars for
you know restaurants you can't buy a
house and dollars you have to convert it
to yen
so you would convert that amount of
money from from the dollar currency into
the yin currency if you trip through 180
countries you would have to convert it
generally into the currency that's
that's the medium of exchange and the
legal tender in the country
since most countries have a different
uh a different legal currency
some countries like in europe share a
similar one to euro
so
money is is economic energy the currency
is the medium of exchange
or it's it
it is an asset legally designated by a
nation state
as
as an acceptable medium exchange and
it's given up a
legal advantage a political advantage
because you can transfer it tax free
so if i have a hundred thousand dollars
and i want to uh
to buy
an expensive car with it
right i can exchange the hundred
thousand of money via the currency
into the car
without paying a capital gains tax
and without in incurring a capital gain
loss
on the transaction
um
if i had um
a bunch of apple stock
a hundred thousand dollars worth of
apple stock
i would have an asset actually you could
you know in fact there's a batch of
securities worth a hundred thousand
dollars but if i bought the car with a
hundred thousand dollars of apple stock
and i had acquired the apple stock for
fifty thousand dollars
i would actually
get the car and i get a tax bill for the
capital gains on fifty thousand dollars
right that's what the nation state says
so for that reason apple stock or a
bunch of securities
don't make good medium of exchange
right it would even even if it was
liquid right it's not a good medium
exchange because my credit card you know
doesn't work so well with apple stock
because i can't transfer apple stock on
a saturday afternoon
and those are reasons why i wouldn't use
it
in order to buy a car but the most
important reason that
securities will never be currency
is because it's deemed as
you know we'll call it property by the
irs
and something subject to a capital gains
tax
so
the currency uh in the modern world
uh is whatever the government says it is
if you're in um
if you're in a a state of uh
anarchy
right or chaos let's say let's say
you're in a war zone
you're uh you're in afghanistan after
the government fell right while the
americans were pulling out all the banks
failed
right clearly it's not there's no
effective government to designate um a
local afghan fiat currency
there's no government to impose taxes
right that's anarchy
in that particular case
if you happen to be
an afghan citizen
and you're trans and you're uh doing a
trade with another afghan citizen
you want to buy whatever they've got
their car
right their food you could use bitcoin
as a currency
and it would be a currency because
there's no government to tell you that
you can't use it as a currency in that
case you could use goats right you could
use basically anything
yeah you could use gold you could use
bullets i was saying goats you could
because that's yeah i got you could you
could barter whatever you wanted
right because but the reason that the
reason that anything is currency
is because there's not an effective
nation state
so the reason that um we end up with um
a dichotomy right what money is economic
energy there's one aspect of money we'll
call property
another aspect of money we'll call
currency
and both of those sum up into money the
property would be
a long
a long duration asset
if i want to own a house if i have a
house a car a bitcoin
a bar of gold
even a share of stock i suppose or a a
corporation
uh we could all think of them as
property forms of money right they all
have economic value
um but generally they all have a tax
treatment
not always the same but oftentimes
there's a tax a taxable event when you
transfer property from one person to
another person
like for example
if i um if i
traded you my house
for a car
and if there's a tax on disposition of
real estate oftentimes there's a real
estate tax on transfer of title
right not only are you going to get the
capital gains tax you're also going to
get the um the real estate tax so that's
even worse
than transferring say the apple shares
because you get hit twice right
sometimes you
you could get all sorts of random taxes
depending upon the legal definition of
the property
so um
the
the best way to think of it is
if there is an effective nation state
it can choose to designate one or more
assets as currency generally one asset
the euro the yen the one
the cny the usd right those would be
designated as currencies or legal tender
you transfer them tax-free
um
though there's two reasons why
you've got an advantage of your
designated currency the one obvious
reason is because i can transfer the
asset to someone else in a trade
tax-free
okay that's the obvious reason right
because if i if i move the money ten
times in a year and if there happens to
be a you know a ten percent tax each
time i move it there's no money left at
the end of the year right so if you're
trading
a pro a property
high velocity
over the course of a few years the
property disappears
in a decade the property certainly
disappears sometimes
like if you're designated a property if
i had a hundred thousand dollars of
property in florida
i wouldn't even have to trade it just
holding it subjects it to a two percent
a year fee so that over the course of
50 years the property goes away right so
that so that's a nation state basically
taking your property away but it's worse
than that right because they could uh
reassess the property every year and if
they reassess the property up seven
percent a year you don't even get it for
50 years you get it for about 25 years
before the property goes away
so
when you look at your assets
um the nation has the ability to
classify them however they want
and
and uh
the best classification is currency
because i could hold the currency
from a tax point of view that is i can
hold the currency for a hundred years
and i'm not getting a two percent
property tax a year and i'm not getting
the capital gains when i transferred
so that's why currency tends to um
separate from property
as monetary assets and
when you think about uh
when you think about the world
right
eight billion people in the world
if you're if you want liquid assets
you'd like a liquid property asset like
bitcoin that you can hold for 100 years
it's a store of value
and then if you want to move through
nation states
if you want to do business in rent a
house or buy something in the uk or in
europe or in the us
you're going to have to have a currency
asset
and you can decide how much of your
wealth you want to store in the currency
right if you store 100 of your wealth in
the currency then the pro is your your
taxable situation is simple
uh the con is of course you're getting
uh diluted very rapidly
but there's
but there's one more point i was going
to make so the first benefit of an asset
being designated currency
is the fact that you can transfer it
without tax or hold it without taxable
um
consequences
but the secondary benefit
which is it's kind of derivative benefit
is
the accounting
for the transactions becomes orders of
magnitude easier
so
the world is run by a hundred million
companies and those hundred million
companies they provide your pizza and
they wash your clothes and they operate
the airplanes and they operate the ships
and they operate the railroads and they
give you your job right and they're
apple and google and amazon and they
have the electricity and they pump the
water we can't really reasonably do
without the companies the companies all
have accounting systems
the big accounting companies are sap and
oracle and microsoft they are wired into
those hundred million companies they are
the nervous system of the companies and
the companies can't legally do business
they can't comply with local law
without the accounting systems so the
companies become non-compliant when they
when they don't the right accounting
systems
to to operate especially as a public
company but even as a private company
you end up making really really large
investments in accounting systems um
you're you're talking about
hundreds of finance professionals in
most mid-sized companies
and 10 20 30 50 million dollars in the
accounting systems and those things
it would be if if you wanted to rip it
out or change it and do it fast
fast would be in a decade
and
and uh likely would be 15 to 20 years
and and so generally the average life
span of that customer relationship with
those accounting firms is is 25 30 years
so so it's a very very um
long duration investment
so
if um
if you want to introduce a new currency
you can't do it without the support of
the nation state
and then
and if you go against that nation state
guidance
right the companies will just
immediately reject it
because they would be deemed
non-compliant and they would lose their
license to do business in the country
and it would be worse than that right
like the ceo's going to jail and the
cfo's going to jail if if they're not
compliant so they're not going to do it
they will reject any kind of currency
that that doesn't
doesn't meet nation state acceptance
but even if they even if they wanted to
wire their systems like let's say they
were going to to accept it they end up
having to modify all their accounting
systems to immediately trans uh
translate the property into the currency
and now um
now you're talking about generating
hundreds of thousands or millions and
millions of taxable events
every month every week
so imagine
imagine if i did 87 million transactions
selling 87 million pizzas but i was
doing it in a non-currency like a
bitcoin you would literally have to keep
track of the price of bitcoin 87 million
times
and you'd have to have a different price
for every transaction
in the system
and then you would have to calculate
when you paid your bills every single
bill would be a different uh mixture of
bitcoin going out the other side
and so you're talking about accounting
systems that become orders of magnitude
more complicated
and uh no
nobody would willingly take on that
headache i mean if if you went to sap in
oracle and said build this forest they
would laugh at you
and they they're kind of a duopoly like
there's only three companies in the
world
that do this so
so they don't have to do anything
so
the currency is a very
very deep-seated strong network effect
and
this accrues uh it accrues to the united
states because if you have the world's
reserve currency
then your reserve currency is built into
the accounting systems and into the
exchanges and the marketplaces of every
country on earth and it's built into all
of the
all of the um
property assets
right because the currency is built into
the bonds it's built into commercial
real estate leases
they're 30-year leases right that are
indexed to the united states cpi
and so if you were to calculate
the total amount of investment
in all of these things
you realize it's uh
it's
extraordinary so
ultimately
money
money is energy
you have a lot of flexibility about
about how you store your economic energy
and you have to decide what your
what your goal is do you want to hold it
for a thousand years
do you want to it to be portable
do you want it to be programmable do you
want to be high frequency do you want to
want high velocity money do you want to
move it um every day every week every
month and if and so depending upon what
your uses of the money
you would probably and also your
political nexus
and your geographic nexus
for example um
it's a different circumstance for an
american citizen in argentina than it is
for an argentine citizen in argentina
and so there's a different calculus if
you're an american trading with an
american in brazil than if you're a
brazilian trading with a brazilian in
brazil
and so
you have to consider
what is uh what's the
citizenship of the person of the company
right what it what's the and companies
are even more complicated right because
a company can have 200 subsidiaries
in different locales
and they can all be licensed differently
so now the question becomes
what's the entity doing business
at what frequency with what counterparty
to what effect
and now if you can parse your way
through all the tax codes
right there's a tax code that's
different by state by municipality
by country
by counterparty
a and counterparty b
changing over time
if you can parse through all that
you can actually figure out
the right financial strategy
if it sounds daunting
it is and so you can imagine why a
typical cfo or treasurer would say screw
it we're just going to use
the currency the local currency or we're
going to use the dollar
right because that's the path of least
resistance and their thinking is
all of this is too complicated for me i
i sell pizzas
right so the the norm for corporation is
they focus upon the operating business
operating jets or planes or trains or
automobiles or making food
and they don't really focus upon the
treasury operations or the balance sheet
because it's just it would just make the
business too complicated
okay so i want to i just want to come
back to
because we've gone on
a number of tangents there what i want
to
kind of
separate just as a as a model in
people's minds as as i was listening to
you talk in the beginning you were
saying
money is kind of the
the total economic energy of a system so
the kind of i'm kind of thinking almost
of a of an electrical system like the
money is the power in the system
and then the currency is
i mean it's meant to represent
the power in the system and it's kind of
like a
it's like a map or an or an an attempt
that
enables us to move that economic energy
around the system so it's almost like
current flowing through a circuit
whereas the the total economic energy is
the money itself um
a ledger in the sky i've heard you call
it that in the past which i
i well there's lots of metaphors but
but why don't we start with energy so
money is the energy in the system
so so how do i store energy well
if i had a million dollars i could pump
water uphill
with the million dollars i could convert
the million dollars into electricity put
it in a pump and i can pump water uphill
into a reservoir
and now uh all the all the the water
behind the dam represents potential
energy
by the way if i'm lucky right the force
of nature just dropped the rain water in
into the reservoir behind the dam and i
don't have to pump it up so now i've got
a million dollars worth of water
now why why is the water energy it
wouldn't be energy at sea level it's
energy at altitude
right
the higher you are the more energy you
have
if you're a thousand feet up with a
million pounds of water or a million
gallons of water a thousand feet up
that's more energy than 100 feet up
right the effect you know the energy is
the difference between where where the
water is going to flow versus where it
is that's potential energy is going to
be given off and it's and ultimately
what you're doing is you're channeling
gravitational energy
right the real energy came from gravity
and we and the water is the fluid
if i'm flying an airplane at 50 000 feet
i have more energy than at 5 000 feet
right how do you know i just point the
nose down
and the plane starts to accelerate right
and and i pick up velocity so i'm
converting potential energy into kinetic
energy
okay so um
if i wanted to move energy via another
medium i can move it through air
pressure
sound is acoustic energy
ah
that's more energy right if i yell i'm
putting more energy into the system
right
less energy
more energy right
singing right what what what do we do
we're listening to someone perform music
we're watching them uh
expressing
an extraordinary performance art on
energy
look at a guitar
right and think about uh tesla said you
want to understand the universe think in
terms of um of vibration
right and frequency and energy
so a guitar has got a fretboard
and when you're uh when you're playing
the guitar you're actually
changing the frequency with which the
strings vibrate
you know one hand is actually uh putting
a bit of energy into the system uh but
the but the real trick is
change the length of the string so that
the strings vibrate at different
resonating frequencies and then you get
the chord you get the music
so uh any you can use many many mediums
to move energy
when sound is moving through the air
right the air is the current currency
um is it a good currency or bad currency
well the sound moves uh through the
water faster than through the air water
is a better currency than air uh but uh
the sound moves through a piece of wood
or solid faster than the water
and the stiffer the solid the faster the
sound moves
and the more efficiently it moves so you
can pick any kind of medium to move
energy
electricity is is a way to move it sound
is a way to move it water is a way to
move energy you have a certain amount of
energy you know in your body
and your blood
right is is the currency
that's moving the energy through your
body
right and and uh it works to a certain
level
so uh so fiat currencies are a method of
moving energy
um
all all of these all of these mediums
have dissipation like they dissipate
energy
right um
that's why um
that's why that's why uh well if i shine
a light
uh through a vacuum
it will travel further than if i shine a
light through a wet blanket
why
same same energy dissipated faster right
through a solid than through the air but
you know you can figure out that we can
see stars that are
light years away
but you can't see candles
that are 10 miles away
because the air doesn't uh it dissipates
energy faster
so all of these uh all of these things
dissipate energy at a certain rate
uh the u.s dollar
right now dissipating energy maybe at
the rate of 15 percent uh a year
about
um
but in in
in argentina or in turkey they're
dissipating energy at the rate of 70 a
year
and uh the best managed us you know
currency the best managed any given year
maybe anticipating energy of seven
percent a year
and right now in japan the japanese
currency has lost 19 percent
let's say the us dollar strengthened 19
against the yen
in the last uh
six months
okay so
if the u.s dollar is weakened eight and
a half percent against consumer goods
and if it's weakened 20
against property like single-family
homes
and if it's weakened 33 against oil
but it strengthened nineteen percent
against the yen
you could see that uh that the yen is
losing sixty percent fifty to sixty
percent of its energy
in six months
against
against a commodity like oil now there
are all sorts of
all sorts of um
you know individual effects so
oil is probably going up in price
because the scarcity of oil has been
increased because of the war
but if we took u.s single-family homes
and said it looks like the inflation
rate of the u.s dollar against scarce
desirable assets is about 20 percent
then you can see that uh that the
effective inflation rate of the japanese
yen against scarce desirable assets is
35 percent
maybe 40 percent
becomes tricky to measure but
but uh that's what happened so the
reason that i don't want to hold the
currency forever
is because
it's bleeding off energy over time but
the reason that i want to hold it for a
day
is
because there are massive network
effects
when i walk into a pizzeria they don't
price the pizza in apple stock
and they don't price it in bitcoin they
don't price it in bar ounces of gold
they price it in dollars
when i go to europe when the eu formed
one of the interesting things that
happened is
in the ten years after the eu formed
most menus in the european union started
listing
uh products in the local language and
english english became the second
language on all menus of most nice
restaurants all throughout europe and
then
of course they started listing prices in
euros
before that
they listed the menu in french
and
frank's so
you know you had uh a standardization
on a common currency and a standard
nation on a common language
and uh that uh that facilitates
the medium of the the process of
exchange in the near term
but the price you pay
is um you know the loss of your local
culture the loss of your local language
and the loss of control over your local
currency
and uh and the increase the increase in
the power of the centralized bureaucracy
so okay so moral
of the story here is that
we
in some way by necessity
from particularly how we've emerged as
as civilizations you know we have
territory to contend with and the latest
incarnation of contending with the
territory as the nation-state and within
the nation state
we've
had to in some way
create a medium
for people to move monetary energy but
by virtue of the fact that
the
these nation-states have become quite
bureaucratic there is an increased
dissipation of energy
uh in that process and
would you would you agree with the fact
that we're coming to a point i i know
your position on bitcoin and i mean you
made it clear for the last half an hour
in terms of
it being property
and its designation as property making
it difficult to be used as a currency
but kind of like what you said about the
euro there
they moved over to the euro they slapped
english on all the menus
can bitcoin in a sense bootstrap its way
in a similar sort of fashion where its
menus have euros and
bitcoin on them in terms of a way for
people
to make payments because
bitcoin seems to be
again let's
assume that the nation state and this
territorial necessity doesn't exist for
a moment
bitcoin in cyberspace
is not only a better money but its
money currency relationship
doesn't have any leakage i guess
and
you know the pathway there is obviously
messy
in the extreme um
what is the word uh the extreme ideal
model
if there if there was
you have to you have to imagine
i don't know what you think about
government uh a worldwide benevolent
govern government
and the government decided to adopt
austrian economics and
eliminated all the fiat currencies and
so we went to 100 bitcoin
everywhere in the world
no war i'll leave that off for a second
and then um
you just went to a complete hard money
standard then you would have the
austrian ideal and you'd have a
deflationary economy and then the price
of everything would get cheaper every
year
it would get cheaper
at the rate that the economy grew if if
we added two percent more productivity a
year then everything get two percent
cheaper a year
and so
you just have to imagine that uh that
it's it's a
there's a nation
um
i haven't really thought through whether
you can do it for one out of 100 nations
right because the other 99 nations would
also have access to bitcoin but they'd
have other
currencies and there'd be political
dynamics and military and war dynamics
you have to work through so i haven't
quite worked that out but it seems to me
that if you have the support of the
nation state to adopt a single currency
and that's bitcoin
then uh you could make it work i mean
it's not going to happen in the next 30
years not that i could see a hundred
years out 200 years out
sometime in the distant future you would
have to rebuild
first of all you have to answer the
question what do we do with all the
countries
and then then after you figure out that
what we do all the currencies and then
how do we persuade everybody and then
after that you have to rebuild the
accounting systems and rebuild all the
software systems but but in theory right
there's that future i just don't think
it's practical
anytime in the next few decades
if we take the a a more realistic
situation look at argentina right now
you have the local peso
and then you have the dollar
and then you have bitcoin
and then you also have the real
and um and so if if you're origin pine
you
you can't there's no company in
argentina that can react reject the peso
and still stay in business
right so
unless you're unless you've got an idea
to peacefully change out the government
i don't know how that happens right
it's just there's no one can operate
there uh and stay in business right
um
so what you end up with is the dyna the
same thing you're suggesting for bitcoin
replacing the dollar is the thing that
the dollar needs to do to replace the
argentine peso right the dollar is a
much better currency in argentina than
the peso
so if you wanted to watch
how hyper bitcoinization
happens
watch how dollarization happens
and does it happen with bloodshed or
without bloodshed
right like the uh el salvador dollarized
but it was after a civil war
right i mean and so go go look at all
the different countries in the world and
ask the question how do they change
currencies and how do they adopt a
stronger currency
right and uh it's a slow process and
like the the argentine peso has been
collapsing for 20 years
actually technically
if you study history
yeah i
think in uh in the house of morgan right
uh the guy that ran the bank before the
first jp morgan he got into the business
by you know
by uh bailing out busted argentine bonds
and the like i mean argentina's had
sovereign debt collapses since the late
1800s
you know that we can measure every 20
years for the last 150 years
right so like 1920s there's another
south american round of collapses in the
1950s i did another round in 1970s
another round 1990s another round
and now we're in another round
so this has been going on for a while
normally what happens is the country's
currency collapses
like that the russian currency collapsed
in the in the late 90s what'd they do
they installed the new ruble the mexican
currency collapsed what'd they do they
installed the new mexican peso
right what happens when you collapse the
currency generally the question is does
the government say or go yeah so if the
government
if the government collapses so badly
that you become a province of
the united states right
if you were if you were hawaiian and you
actually ran your own hawaiian empire
and then your nation collapsed
then you might become
a state in the united states and adopt a
dollar
but generally you have to have a
political union
to have a monetary union
so this is really
this is why
if you um if your goal is uh to make a
lot of progress in the next decade
then the best way to think about that is
bitcoin is a hundred times better than
gold which means bitcoin's gonna get a
hundred times bigger than it is right
now and we should spend our time
explaining to people why bitcoin is
better than gold better than uh owning a
an equity index fund better than owning
a second investment property
better than owning a bunch of heavy
metals
right better than owning farmland
and you could do that and bitcoin could
become a 250 trillion dollar ecosystem
without threatening anybody
right there's
there it's not there is no nation of
gold gold doesn't have a police force
has no army
there's no nsa cia protecting gold
right there's no one that's going to
fight and die for gold
there's no president of gold no one's
getting elected to defend gold
right so
if if what you want to do is improve the
human condition as fast as you can with
the least amount of confusion and
friction
and unintended consequences then
you simply
attack the nation of gold and you swap
out
everyone that wants sound money in the
form of gold for bitcoin and after you
finish that
you swap out a hundred trillion dollars
of real estate and property investments
for bitcoin and after that you swap out
you know corporate bonds and equity and
you demonetize equity and you demonetize
um corporate bonds
and um
by by time you've done that you probably
will have changed the politics in 100
countries and you'll probably have very
favorable politicians
and uh and bitcoin probably will have
built itself into the political
apparatus of those countries
and uh either
their currency will become bitcoin back
derivative
like they will they will back their
currency to bitcoin
or they will adopt bitcoin
uh and in any event your cur
your currency gets stronger if you do
intelligent things
and your currency gets weaker
when you do irrational things right so
if you loved
if you loved the country you would want
the leadership to do intelligent things
so what's intelligent
um
generate a lot of power like nuclear
power that's cheap and
and easy uh good road systems good
technology
efficient uh
efficient language efficient currency
good legal systems
you know not too much spend less than
you make yeah all of these rational
things
right uh adopt a bitcoin standard
all of these would be rational things it
would strengthen the currency
and uh and it would lessen the inflation
rate of the currency
if i want to create massive inflation i
just do the opposite
i you know declare war on 100 different
things and i spend 100 x more than i
take in and i regulate everything and
everyone everywhere right and and that
causes the currency to weaken and in the
extreme
completely collapses
so
um
it seems reasonable
that um as bitcoin grows and it gets
better understood
rational nations will embrace bitcoin
holders and bitcoin miners and bitcoin
companies
and as they embrace them the politics
will become more favorably disposed to
bitcoin and as that happens their
companies will start to hold bitcoin and
their families and then eventually their
institutions
and then their agencies
right and and as that happens
their currency becomes a bitcoin
derivative
do you know how like um like a stock is
a derivative like microstrategy is a
bitcoin derivative
so is gbtc
so is uh beto
right uh so is a bitcoin miner they're
all securities but they're derivatives
of bitcoin are they better than bitcoin
well not over the long run over the long
run bitcoin is the best thing
are they different yes but are they
better as bitcoin derivatives than if
they were gold derivatives
see if microstrategy bought 500 million
in gold instead of 500 million in
bitcoin we'd be a gold derivative
and gold has been flat to down in the
past two years
so you see
if a nation adopts the gold standard its
currency becomes a gold derivative
if it adopts a bitcoin it becomes a
bitcoin derivative the more uh bitcoin
technology and bitcoin asset value in
the citizens and the corporations
domiciled in the nation state
the stronger the nation is the more
rational it gets the stronger its
currency gets
so
the problem
that the stark problem is when the
currency is inflating at 50 a year
like let's say argentina
right that's this that's the obvious
problem a collapse of the currency or in
turkey when the currency is collapsing
and when you have bitcoin or the peso
that's an extreme proposition
and that sets up um
a confrontation
an unhealthy confrontation right because
now you're a citizen and you have to
choose to support your nation-state
currency or you have to choose uh the
global currency
against your nation-states wishes
okay
that's hard and so what do you do
if you're smart right you have like five
percent
fiat currency 95
bitcoin
right and you you kind of take the hit
on the five percent that's your checking
account and the 95 percent you kind of
preserve your store of value that's what
you do it but what if you had um
a fiat currency which was only inflating
at two percent a year
or three percent a year
right i mean the
the common narrative is that the dollar
is only going to inflate at two percent
a year we know that's not true the
number is more like seven percent in a
good year
but um when the number gets to be less
than seven percent
at seven percent then you've got ten
years to have your money cut in half
okay so you you can rely on it
reasonably for a year to three years at
a time below seven percent
when it gets to 21
you can rely on it for 24 to 36 months
and when it gets to 40 right you've got
one year
that you can rely on it and when it gets
to 80 to 90 right you've got weeks to
months
so
so my point here really is uh
there's easily 500 trillion dollars
worth of monetary energy divided between
probably a lot more than that
divided between bonds and equity and and
property and collectibles and real
estate and currencies
and uh and bitcoin
bitcoins only right it's it's uh
you know not not one percent it's ten
basis points
yeah we're ten we're one tenth of a
percent of all of that right now so
given a choice
you can either take the position that
all nation state governments must topple
and fail today
i'm an enemy of all nation states so
that bitcoin is the sole currency
or you can take the position that
bitcoin is simply going to be pair
pursue to gold and be ten times bigger
or bitcoin is much better than gold
it'll be 100 times bigger
and you can partner with every nation
state
if you use common sense right like walk
down the street and tell everybody you
have a good idea
and say i've got a really good idea it's
going to be good for america good for
your family good for your company good
for your city good for your state and
good for you and it's going to be fun
and think about how many people want to
embrace that idea
oh and it'll make you rich
that's one proposition
bitcoin better than gold
the other proposition is
i need you
to abandon your company quite your job
leave your city you know go to war with
your state go to war with your country
tell your family they're all stupid
in order to do the right thing
and if and if they all
agree with you then maybe we'll make
progress
and that's the
bitcoin is the only currency you see so
one of them is just so difficult as
it's un
unnecessarily painful
and it doesn't get you anywhere yeah
well you're not going to get 100 people
to buy into that crusade 95 or 99 out of
100 will just disagree with you and
you'll like accomplish nothing
and if you flip it flip it and say i've
just got a better technical idea and
it's just a better asset than gold
you'll persuade lots of them
and p and you will build up
support
exponentially over time
and at some point 30 years out 40 years
out 50 years out
maybe there'll be a nation that has a
currency which is inflating at three
percent a year and bitcoin
and then you'll have this interesting
political discussion do we get rid of
our fiat currency and just go to all
bitcoin
and if we do
it'll be a peaceful transition
but there's no way there's going to be
any peaceful transition in argentina to
bitcoin
right now that's not happening
yeah so
reading between the lines
what you're advocating for is a is a
process um i want to read a quote here
which is a quote from sun tzu which
actually funny enough came up today it
says to secure ourselves against defeat
lies in our own hands but the
opportunity of defeating the enemy is
provided by the enemy himself
and i guess
it's a it's an apt quote for what we're
discussing here is that um
why pick a fight with the big boss when
there are steps along the way and by the
time you actually get there
that big boss may just be um
the
what's what's the the guy behind the
curtain in the wizard of oz um yeah that
the name
yeah so
well
how about this metaphor maybe you're not
fighting against a person it's just it's
just the future fighting against the
past
for example
uh
sound money in the 19th century was gold
sound money in the 21st century is
bitcoin
right
we're just here
to evolve from the best idea we had in
the past
to the best idea we have in the future
right uh if
if um if you're looking for someone to
lose so that you can win it becomes a
zero-sum game
but
you know who's the loser if i teach you
a mathematics introduce electricity and
i give you an automobile
right there
maybe you're
maybe your grandfather
was afraid of automobiles and afraid of
electricity and and didn't get a chance
to go learn calculus or higher level
math
but you know your grandfather's not the
enemy
it was like he did as good as he could
do
we're just introducing technology
i think a a much more constructive way
to look at this is
we're introducing a better technology
it's not the world is not out to get you
right
all those people that you think are out
to get you they think that they're
trying to save you they think they're
doing the right thing
yeah right everybody's the hero in their
own story
so you me you have a disagreement
with them about their their strategy
but they don't think they're villains
and half the people in the world don't
think they're villains either and in the
best case right we could pick almost any
any issue and the world divides 50 50
more often than not on most of those
issues
so if you want to make progress
you'll be a lot more effective if you
introduce a new better way to achieve a
good thing
that everyone can benefit from
so for example
instead of saying down with the banks
the bankers are the bad guys
and we're the good guys
what if we just said
the bankers are trying to do their best
to provide financial services but
they've had to do it with gold and with
sovereign debt
and with uh defective securities and
and uh and monetized precious metals
and if they could do it with bitcoin
they'd be much better at providing
financial services
there there are plenty of uh
products that people might like to have
let's take insurance right would you
like life insurance
yeah are there life insurance companies
sure they are they the enemy no
uh what's the problem they're using
sovereign debt in order to generate
yield to pay off the life insurance
policy
okay so what would you like them to do
use bitcoin what would happen if they
did the life insurance policy would pay
10 times as much and cost one tenth as
much
okay
are you going to say death or down with
life insurance companies
no like
there's nothing you know we probably
need car insurance companies too uh you
know
corporations do things useful
banks do things useful
we just gotta uh if we look at it that
way
like uh it's important it's important to
be able to hold your own keys and take
personal custody
and and that that point is made often in
the bitcoin community but
what about a 75 year old in a coma in
the hospital do they have to take
personal custody of their keys
and what about your unborn child
or your unborn grandchild then you want
to give them bitcoin did they have to
take custody of their keys
like
like is is there a place for a bank or
an institution a custodian to transfer
your bitcoin from you
to your unborn child
because
right this is that you know that
libertarian debate which is everyone
should be responsible for their own
actions yeah well like three-year-olds
how about three months old
right where do you draw the line how
about not born for three months are they
responsible for their actions
well if they're not responsible for
their actions is is it possible for a
private company to do you a benefit
i think so
i think a private company can give you
insurance i think a private company can
give you a loan
i think a private company can be a
custodian
uh for uh for your unborn child
what if you uh you know we're back to
what if you get in a car wreck and you
suffer brain damage
okay and you've been saving all your
life to give money to your family well
what happens
uh you were stupid you got in a car
wreck you deserve to lose it all right
not really
not really right so
it comes down to the question is there a
place
for
non-profit organizations is there a
place for institutions is there a place
for companies and is there a place for
governmental agencies and for for
countries
and
there probably is
there's a massive debate that will go on
forever about how big or small that role
should be
right some people want very small
government
some people want lots of government
some people don't like corporations but
ultimately uh
we'd all we'd all suffer and live a much
lower standard of living
if we didn't have companies i mean a
simple example is uh electric power i
mean you obviously want to have
centralized generators of electricity
because they will give you one day
supply of electricity for you know for a
few pennies
like the amount of electricity you can
generate yourself it would take you
eight hours to generate two cents worth
of power eight hours so it's pretty
obvious you want a company
you know to create a generating uh
facility and you would rather
you know uh work for about 15 seconds
for the electricity and then spend the
rest of your day doing something else
and i think that um
that
once you embrace this idea that
we need to we need to
allow for a continuum
of adoption
right an economy there there's a place
for uh for people to hold their own keys
there's a place for people to custody
keys for a small period of time
like i go into the hospital for heart
surgery and i might not live and so i
i custody my keys with someone for a
week a day this place for that there's a
place for people yeah i just got
diagnosed with alzheimer's
okay well i'm going to transfer my keys
to someone
for the rest of my life because i got an
alzheimer's diagnosis right so it's a
different thing
you're a mayor of this kiddie
if you you know if you're
if you run a school right a private
school and you've got bitcoin in the
treasury
maybe all the all the parents don't want
the principal to walk around with the
bitcoin keys they they want it
with some kind of institutional
custodian
for a lot of other reasons especially
what happens when the principal quits
and you hire a new principal
let me tell you i hire a lot of people
in my life
and
if you have any experience trusting
people i could interview you for 20
hours and think you're god's gift and
the perfect person and i'll still be
right
75 percent of the time and wrong 25 of
the time
and so if you and if if you're wrong 25
of the time
right then that's pretty devastating
you know to uh you know what if the
country loses all of its assets 25 of
the time right
like every four years instead of every
one year right so you can't afford
uh
human fallibility sometimes sometimes
you need something to be 99.99999
reliable like uh as as you know deming
would say
or some some manufacturing scientists so
so i think if you're if you're going to
build a higher level civilization you
have to be open-minded
to a lot of different ways
to work with the asset and different
time frames
and when you go to the extreme
you undermine adoption but you also
undermine utility
because
you know the real economy is going to be
you know you need bitcoin at layer one
you've got lightning you know a
non-custodial open layer two and then
you've got layer threes like cash app
and paypal
and and you know the exchanges and then
you've got
layer fours you know securities like
microstrategy or gbtc where we've
literally got the thing embedded in what
we are
and then you've got products
you could you could build it into
products and services you could build a
bitcoin into a tesla
what if i had a tesla and i bought the
tesla and the tesla basically was
self-maintaining forever right because i
had enough bitcoin in it to pay for all
the electricity and also pay for the
maintenance upkeep on the car
so all of these are different
aspects of a digital economy
and they'll all be subject to different
rules and different laws and some things
will fail and some will succeed
and if you just take an open mind and
allow it all uh all to evolve i think
i think people will start to see
this is uh is uh economically good for
everybody technically good for everyone
and morally
politically good as well there don't
have to be any losers here everybody
can be a winner and and if if you go
into the marketplace
and your your position is bitcoin fixes
this well how about just bitcoin
improves this
what if you went to every company every
product every family every country every
politician
everybody just said i'm here from
bitcoin and we can improve whatever
you're doing it doesn't even matter what
you're doing it'll be better if you if
you build some type of bitcoin into
whatever you're doing
there are no enemies there the world
just divides into people that don't
understand
how we can help them yet
people that do understand how they can
how we can help them right and then
people we haven't talked to yet