SaylorCorpus

Michael Saylor on BTC at $100K and the Future of MicroStrategy

Galaxy · 2024-12-11 · 1h 42m · View on YouTube →

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[Music]

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I guess I just want to start with the

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fact that Bitcoin broke

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$100,000 is this your first interview

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since this Milestone yes it is and I

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said this to Tucker cross and on

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television I said I'm going to be buying

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the top forever it it's okay now

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everybody's got to do their thing the

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shorts got to be short the Longs got to

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be long the Traders got to trade the

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haters got to hate this is a global

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monetary asset it is worthy of attention

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if it's not going to zero it's going to

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a million Y and that's where we find

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ourselves today welcome to Galaxy brains

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an infinite amount of cash I'm your host

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Alex Thor the US banking system is sound

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and resilient Bitcoin made a new

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all-time high if you're not long if

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you're not long you're short satachi is

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going to come on there laugh

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hysterically go quiet all bitcoin's

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going to be erased Bitcoin Bitcoin is

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the best crypto user Bitcoin is going to

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zero welcome back to Galaxy brains as

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always I'm Alex Thorne head of firmwide

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research at Galaxy Bitcoin not zero and

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we have a great episode for you today

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Michael sailor founder and chairman of

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micro strategy is our guest we flew down

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to Miami to interview Michael the day

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that Bitcoin hit 100,000 for the first

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time and this 90-minute interview is the

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first long form interview with Michael

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since that epic Milestone micro strategy

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is the largest single entity holder of

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Bitcoin in the world its stock is the

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best performing this year year in the

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world and we get into it deep with

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Michael about his thoughts for the

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Bitcoin strategic Reserve nation state

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game theory for dollar dominance and

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Bitcoin we talked with Michael about

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micro strategies uh treasury operations

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both now and its plans for the future as

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well as some Bitcoin native topics like

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proof of reserves Bitcoin development

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and much more it's a fascinating

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interview I know you will enjoy but

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before we get to it I need to remind you

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to please refer to the link to

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disclaimer in the podcast notes and note

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that none of the information in this

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podcast constitutes investment advice or

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an offer recommendation or solicitation

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by Galaxy or any of its Affiliates to

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buy or sell any Securities this is a

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great episode Michael was on fire we

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were uh down there the first day after

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Bitcoin hit 100K and I know you'll enjoy

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this interview Bim net is off this week

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we'll catch up with him next week so

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let's get right into it with Michael

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sailor Michael sailor uh founder and

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chairman of micro strategy thank you so

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much for coming on Galaxy brins yeah

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thanks for having me it's great to be

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here Michael and I guess I just want to

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start with the fact that Bitcoin broke

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$100,000 I think this is is this your

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first interview since uh this Milestone

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yes it is do you feel uh Vindicated

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what's your take is is it an important

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Milestone I think uh it's an important

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Milestone because when you get to the

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100 to the six figure level I think it

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sends the message to people that Bitcoin

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is here to stay I think uh there's been

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uh multiple stages of Bitcoin right

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there there were the early years when it

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wasn't clear what it was or whether

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would

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survive then there were the blocksize

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War years when there was the big fight

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over the identity of Bitcoin and what

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was what was Bitcoin and what wasn't

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Bitcoin and then I think from 2020 to

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2024 I would say those were the crazy

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years but there was a big the big

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question was is Bitcoin an Institutional

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great asset will it be embraced by

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governments by corporations by

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institutions by traditional Capital

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markets and there was back and forth and

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there was a lot of skepticism and you

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know some people said it's too good to

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be true some people said it's so good

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they'll ban it some people said well

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there'll be a little bit but it won't be

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much and uh and then there's a big fight

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over is it a currency or is it capital

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and I think that um since November 5th

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right we've seen kind of a surge from

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like 68 67 all the way through

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100 I think the answer that's been

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question that the the question that's

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been answered is is Bitcoin here to stay

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is it an Institutional great asset will

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it be

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embraced by the wealth and the power of

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the world and I think think busting

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through 100,000 is is a numeric

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punctuation uh to the emphatic answer to

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that question which is yes yeah it will

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be embraced a resounding yes you've

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never been more right in your strategy

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than at this very moment with Bitcoin at

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$113,000

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um what's the ride been like I mean i' I

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think you know not just Bitcoin but

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Micro strategy is maybe the most

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important and biggest story in global

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markets this year certainly from a stock

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it's the best performing stock in the

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world um what's that ride been like this

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year uh it's been uh

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exhilarating uh and uh it's full of

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highs and lows I

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think in the middle of 2020 it started

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with um an act uh out of uh frustration

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Desperation it was like we're going to

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take a we're going to take a strategic

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move because the alternative is a slow

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death or quick death and once you get to

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the point where your back is against the

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wall you know you're going to do

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something so at that point we're a bit

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frustrated and we took our first Bitcoin

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position then Bitcoin began to rally and

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when Bitcoin rallied back toward the

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all-time high at the time was just

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heading toward

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19,000 uh we moved into an opportunistic

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phase and we were we opportunistically

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found we could uh raise money in the

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convertible bond market for less than 1%

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interest and it's like what what if

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someone wants to give you billions of

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dollars for free to pursue your business

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strategy right what CEO wouldn't take

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the money for free right and so yeah we

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did that and then we moved into sort of

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a a what is it the the terrorized Zone

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I think Bitcoin sorted up then it

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crashed on the Chinese yeah the China

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ban first the China ban and that the

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then there was the environmental ESG

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fund right Elon discovered that it used

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electricity all of a sudden yeah we and

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we fought our way through that and then

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it surged back up again and then we went

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into the crypto winter and we we fell

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from 66,000 to

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16,000 and so that 80% draw down I I

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think that was uh you know the big test

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because it shook out it shook out the

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tourists and it also shook out everyone

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that didn't know how to manage a capital

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structure so you know the poorly

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capitalized uh you know entities that

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had lots of credit risk and and had L

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had unhealthy leverage got taken out and

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there was a lot of uh forced liquid and

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panic selling of Bitcoin that took us to

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the 16

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66,000 and uh you just had to grit your

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teeth and get through that and I would

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say you know that was sort of the low

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point right around the point where

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silvergate Bank failed or like q1 2023

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from from FTX to silvergate bank uh and

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it was also sad I mean it was I mean a

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lot of poorly run companies

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uh failed because they were poorly run

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but then there were a lot of good

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companies I thought you know signature

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silvergate were forced out of business

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to no fault of their own they just uh

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they were caught in choke point 2.0 and

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that was somewhere between tragic and

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coordinated even distasteful yeah

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silvergate in particular to me because

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they didn't go bankrupt they orderly it

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was an orderly windown they didn't lose

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any anybody's money um neither did

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signature I know signature is like

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almost like an assassination I would say

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they're both political yeah yeah you are

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you optimistic that that's that's going

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to change under the new Administration I

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am yeah I think we crawled out of the

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Valley of the crypto winter and and we

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crawled uh you know recovered back into

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the 30s or the the 40s and then I think

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we got into 2024 and I think in

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2024 you know there's we started with

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some uh

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cautious

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optimism Bitcoin grinding up a lot of

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questions about the rest of the digital

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assets economy but Bitcoin you know

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recovering from the bottom on its own

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without help from

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anybody and then we got the approval of

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the spot Bitcoin

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ETFs and uh then we had the having and

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the consequences the having were were a

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number of things one there was a big

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secular rotation of of capital from a

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bunch of Bitcoin miners to micro

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strategy the options market and Bitcoin

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moved from the miners to micro strategy

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so all of a sudden micro strategy uh

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emerged as you know a leading volatility

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liquidity trade in the crypto

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ecosystem and we became aware of that

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and I think the second thing is 450

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Bitcoin a day which is $45 million a day

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of sell got taken out of the market and

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so the supply tightened and the natural

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Supply Titan the market

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matured the ETFs

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legitimized uh the asset class and we

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went into the summer and it was a big

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summer uh the Summer where the Trump

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campaign first of all you know caught a

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huge amount of electricity in the

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greater political economy and then Trump

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embraced Bitcoin and embraced crypto

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and the crypto community and the Bitcoin

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Community embraced Trump uh that took us

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into the November 5th elections and uh

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and two things kind of happened uh

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around that time frame on October

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30th uh micro micro strategy announced

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our 2121 plan we had basically gone and

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done one convert a second convert a

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third convert a fourth convert and a few

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billion dollars of ATM is so we had

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raised quite a bit of capital but we

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were doing it peace meal quarter by

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quarter and we decided it was time for

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us to be more strategic so we announced

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a $21 billion uh Equity shelf

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registration and a $21 billion fixed

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income plan over three years that was

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the biggest uh Equity uh shelf

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registration in the history of capital

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markets so no one ever sold $21 billion

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of equity like that ever right and and

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that kind of flies past some people

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because it's like what I'm saying is

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like out of every company ever right

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never done before the Bitcoin demand and

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the Bitcoin company did it yeah one

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Bitcoin company did it and of course

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it's we did it because we have the

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world's best use of proceeds right uh

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the first time in in human history you

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have a commodity that returns higher

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higher than the S&P with higher

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volatility than the S&P so you have 60

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Vol 60 AR on bitcoin

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going for many years versus 1515 for the

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S&P now you had a commodity high allall

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high performance you can put 100% on

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your balance sheet well that means in

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theory you can issue infinite Equity

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right I mean as long as you can return

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more than the S&P every other commodity

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I mean real estate art gold it's 10v 10

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AR SV 7 AR five five

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so everything other than Bitcoin was

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always less than the cost of capital

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micro strategy you know we kind of

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discovered we discovered a crypto

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reactor that could be fueled by Bitcoin

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and we put a re crypto reactor in the

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middle of our company it's kind of like

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turning on a nuclear reactor or putting

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an internal combustion engine in a

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Horseless

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Carriage and it you know that's what we

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learned in 2024 and we came in October

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30th and we said this is what we're

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going to do and that was very well

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received by the capital markets that was

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a big success yeah and the day after we

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did that our stock outperformed every

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magnificent 7 company and our stock

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outperformed every Bitcoin company and

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outperformed Bitcoin and that was a very

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important signal to the market which is

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the capital Market's going to line up

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behind an operating company to pursue a

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Bitcoin treasury strategy in size yeah

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in size so we were ready to go the

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market kind of started to take off and

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then we get to November 5th and at 8:00

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p.m. on November 5th Bitcoin is high 60s

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and nobody knows whether it's going to

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be a blue sweep or a red sweep or a red

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and white and blue or right a split and

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really the the timeline is if you get a

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Wave bitcoin's going to grind up 20 to

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40% a year against resistance the rest

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of the digital assets industry is going

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to trade sideways under Onslaught you

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know gradually you know and who knows

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hoping just fighting on could be bad

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yeah yeah it could be bad but with the

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red wave and by 8 am the next morning we

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knew there was a red sweep of Congress

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the Senate the house and the White House

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at that point Bitcoin is going to Surge

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up 40 60

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80% the digital assets industry has a

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new lease on life now you're going to

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get a digital assets framework going to

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get an end to the war in crypto we don't

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know what it means but we know that the

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alternative was fight on a Guerilla War

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that's very painful a war of attrition

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yeah and now what you've got is a

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favorable tax regime a favorable you

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know a low regulation regime a pro

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crypto regime a pro Bitcoin you know

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regime and also the Domino start to fall

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Bitcoin surges up

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and uh you know it goes from 69 to today

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we're plus 100 so I don't have to say

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the implication of that to everybody

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right right it's pretty obvious the

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impact of that on 20 million Bitcoins

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right you

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create eight 700 billion dollar yeah

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since the election 700 billion dollars

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in weeks but the other thing that

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happened was micro strategy had we took

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30 years to culate 500 million in

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capital which we invested by September

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October of 2020 we took four years

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grinding away through the crypto winter

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to find another $10 billion of capital

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to invest in Bitcoin and then the next

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four weeks of November we raised 13.5

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billion dollars of

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capital so and in November we bought

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nearly like 150,000 Bitcoin it was your

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biggest slug of Bitcoin ever at it there

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were 15,000 Bitcoin mined in the month

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of November right about 10 times that

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when you start to work through the math

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of what's going on here you can

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see uh the political landscape changed

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the headwinds became Tailwinds the

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capital markets aligned they align

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they're aligning behind the ETF

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providers I mean Black Rock has had

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record flow incredible yeah right and

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micro strategy as record flows our

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option interest surged to like hundred

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billion do right and our liquidity

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surged the point where we're the number

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three stock after Nvidia and you know

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and after Tesla and so the capital

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markets discovered and supported Bitcoin

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uh the political system did and now

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we're starting to see The Dominoes fall

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I mean the favorable comments by Jerome

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pal not a surprise right his mark I mean

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and everybody else it's you you can see

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at this point the consensus is building

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this is a global monetary asset it is

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worthy of attention if it's not going to

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zero it's going to a million yep and

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that's where we find oursel today can I

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ask you about the 2121 plan which was

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Absol you're you're absolutely right

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Earth shattering in Earth shaking in

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capital markets I think and then proving

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the demand in fact so much demand that I

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think the latest convert that you guys

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did at a 0% interest rate right zero

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coupon up 55 points and we started to

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looking to raise 1.75 billion which is

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twice as big as our previous largest

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convert we started twice as big and it

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became $3 billion by the time we

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finished and you've already raised 13

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out of the

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42 uh that's 30% over 3 years though

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aren't you ahead of schedule like or

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what you know what what is your pacing

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going to look like you think yeah we are

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had a schedule but you know there are a

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lot of

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unknowns on October 30th uh we weren't

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sure how enthusiastically the capital

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markets would Embrace us you've got

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you've got the convertible investors

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you've also got the equity investors

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you've also got the options Traders so

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so we have many many constituencies so

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we had to see how they would react and

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that was a big thumbs up from all of

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them M and then we didn't really know

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the outcome of the election and and I I

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really do think the red sweep on

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November 5th is probably the single most

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important thing that's happened maybe to

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the entire crypto economy in the history

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of the economy do you think there might

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ever be interest uh in those Capital

0:18:48

markets for like a minus 50 bips coupon

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cuz you're you found a way to turn free

0:18:53

money into Bitcoin basically what about

0:18:56

making them pay you okay well I I I

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think the most important point to to

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make here is we're not really limited to

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the convertible bond market right

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convertible bonds just happen to be one

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form of fixed income we've experimented

0:19:10

with all sorts of fixed income we've

0:19:12

tried asset-backed financing we've tried

0:19:15

senior debt there's junk bonds there's

0:19:18

also preferred stock uh and there and

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there are various flavors of that and

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Structured Products um in October 30 we

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laid out our treasury strategy and our

0:19:31

treasury strategy is it looks like this

0:19:34

it's you've got a crypto commodity

0:19:38

called Bitcoin which is 60

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AR 60 volatility okay

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okay the uh the performance the 60r

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that's a form of

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energy and then the volatil is another

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form of energy it's it's kind of like uh

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potential in kinetic energy or you could

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think of it as a you know you got a

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train moving 60 miles an hour and you

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got a Flywheel spinning 60 RPM on the

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train and that's your energy okay so

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that's what's coming out of the crypto

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economy the macro economy there's a

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drive shaft and that's being driven into

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the spot ETFs and if you wrap it with

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ibit or fbtc you can buy

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6060 right in the form of uh security

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or you can buy

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6060 in the form of a

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commodity micro strategy as an operating

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company what we're doing is is we're

0:20:40

stepping that up and we're stepping that

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down right so some people want 15 what

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they want is 25% of the return of

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Bitcoin and you would think well you're

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crazy well they'd rather have 15 ARR

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five vol

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no risk or or be 10x over collateralized

0:21:03

right uh just give me 15% but tell me

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there's a very very small chance I you

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know I don't get my principal back some

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people want 15 15 by the way the entire

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S&P index is people buying 15 15 right

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right all you got to do is take 75% of

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Bitcoin away and you can create 155

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which is A1 trillion dollar right market

0:21:26

right now so one for of of fixed income

0:21:30

or one form of investors is to Target

0:21:32

that you can Target that in an in a a

0:21:37

fixed instrument where you're giving

0:21:38

people a Cash

0:21:40

coupon or you can Target it in a um in a

0:21:45

structured instrument where you're

0:21:46

giving them a capital gain over time a

0:21:48

convertible instrument but you could

0:21:50

just Target 25% of Bitcoin and I'll give

0:21:53

you 15 15 or maybe I'll give you 15 AR

0:21:57

five vol and people would lose their

0:22:00

minds right because that's like 3x the

0:22:02

sharp ratio of the S&P so you can create

0:22:06

that you can create 3030 you can

0:22:09

basically give I'm going to give you

0:22:11

half Bitcoin I'm gonna take the other

0:22:13

I'm GNA take half of the performance and

0:22:15

I'm going to take half I'm going to take

0:22:17

all the volatility away and half the

0:22:19

performance and I'll give you the other

0:22:20

half do you want as a coupon or do you

0:22:23

want it in a conversion and then I can

0:22:25

give you 75% of it

0:22:28

um and then I can give you you know so

0:22:31

when we did that convert well we did a

0:22:33

convertible Bond at zero coupon up 55

0:22:36

but it's um it's a 144a offering so it's

0:22:40

an O it's something you sell to

0:22:42

qualified institutional buyers but you

0:22:44

can't sell it to retail and it doesn't

0:22:46

trade like on a four-letter ticker right

0:22:48

so that that's a market and a pool of

0:22:52

capital but there are all these other

0:22:54

pools of capital right so if you sell

0:22:56

something which is just the same

0:22:59

performance as the S&P but less risky I

0:23:02

mean how big is that pool of capital

0:23:03

massive Market or I'll give you another

0:23:05

idea what if I gave you the performance

0:23:08

of the ETFs with downside protection

0:23:12

what if I give you the upside of Bitcoin

0:23:14

but no downside that sounds pretty good

0:23:16

doesn't it yeah that's what our bonds do

0:23:18

our bonds are actually more than the

0:23:20

performance like convertible bonds and

0:23:22

micro strategy are more than the

0:23:24

performance Bitcoin more than the

0:23:27

performance of Bitcoin

0:23:29

but with the downside protection they're

0:23:31

a bond and so if you think about that

0:23:34

the thing an operating company can do is

0:23:37

we can strip the volatility strip the

0:23:40

performance strip the risk we can embed

0:23:44

something the senior 10% tranch of the

0:23:47

capital structure and we spit out one

0:23:49

type of

0:23:50

returns but by the way some people hate

0:23:54

volatility right the mainstream normies

0:23:57

yeah they do they hate it yeah

0:23:59

but if you go to

0:24:00

Susana and you said we're going to strip

0:24:02

the volatility from micro micro strategy

0:24:05

we wouldn't have a hundred billion doll

0:24:08

95 billion open interest do you know you

0:24:10

know what happens when you strip the

0:24:12

volatility from a company our size I

0:24:15

know because

0:24:16

I I have another company that I started

0:24:20

and the other company is twice as big as

0:24:22

micro strategy and revenue and twice as

0:24:26

big in EIT dah and it's

0:24:29

well-run and it's it's just a great

0:24:33

company the open interest is $5 million

0:24:40

wow we're

0:24:42

98 billion as I'm speaking to right now

0:24:46

so stripping the volatility out of the

0:24:49

business is like uh spraying the fire

0:24:52

with a fire extinguisher or literally

0:24:54

you're not pouring gas on the flame

0:24:55

you're you're pouring water on the flame

0:24:59

tionally right whereas what we're doing

0:25:01

is pouring gasoline on the flame if you

0:25:03

ever study a you know study an internal

0:25:05

combustion engine and look at how it

0:25:08

works the point is to channel and you

0:25:11

know and compress you know

0:25:13

supercharge the supercharge turbocharge

0:25:16

the fire and direct it not put it out

0:25:18

right right so so there's a big Market a

0:25:23

$300 trillion market for you know fixed

0:25:27

income coupon generating principal

0:25:31

protected low volatility instruments

0:25:34

there's another massive market100

0:25:37

trillion do market for Equity like SNP

0:25:41

spy Vanguard 500

0:25:44

QQQ that kind of in something that gives

0:25:47

you 15 just beat the S&P performance and

0:25:50

if you beat the and if you do it with

0:25:52

less ball or less risk then why don't I

0:25:55

just give you trillions of that so

0:25:57

there's that market

0:25:59

then there's the Bitcoin Market which is

0:26:01

I'll take I I want Bitcoin upside and of

0:26:04

course there's 100 billion dollars now I

0:26:07

guess in that market right now but you

0:26:11

know at micro strategy and then there's

0:26:14

a convertible

0:26:15

arbitragers right and the convertible

0:26:17

arbitragers they're like I'm going to

0:26:19

buy 50 million of your of your paper I'm

0:26:21

going to short 40 million or 35 million

0:26:24

of your stock and then as the stock

0:26:26

moves around I'm going to adjust the

0:26:27

short right and I'm extracting that

0:26:30

premium

0:26:31

risk-free and that's their thing and

0:26:34

that's what they do when I meet with

0:26:36

them by the way I'm like you know I see

0:26:38

you I see you guys every you know few

0:26:40

weeks or every quarter nice to see you

0:26:42

again by the way that thing that you

0:26:44

shorted tripled like my advice what I

0:26:48

say to them they don't take my advice

0:26:50

nobody it's okay nobody no it it's okay

0:26:53

now everybody's got to do their thing

0:26:55

the shorts got to be short the Long's

0:26:56

got to be long the Traders got got to

0:26:58

trade right the haters got to hate the

0:27:01

Maxis are going to Maxi everybody's

0:27:03

going to do their thing that's fine but

0:27:06

what I say to them is you know this is

0:27:09

bit this is like 75% Bitcoin upside

0:27:13

actually it's it's like 70% micro

0:27:15

strategy upside it's 100% Bitcoin upside

0:27:19

no downside right like that is to say a

0:27:22

Bitcoin crashed 90% tomorrow you're

0:27:25

still getting

0:27:26

paid the could go about 95% tomorrow and

0:27:30

stay there for five years you're still

0:27:32

getting paid it's like why are you

0:27:35

you're already hedged you're already 10x

0:27:39

collateralized why are you hedging it

0:27:41

again yeah it's interesting right and

0:27:43

but there are some people that do they

0:27:45

double hedge it so there's a group of

0:27:47

people that buy that convert and they

0:27:50

they just buy the convert they're

0:27:51

already hedged and they outperform

0:27:53

Bitcoin without the risk there's other

0:27:55

people that by way that's one type of

0:27:59

view there are other people they don't

0:28:00

want to take the risk for an

0:28:03

hour like literally the afternoon

0:28:06

they're buying the bond there I mean

0:28:07

when the Stock's moving around they're

0:28:10

buying 50 million shorting 40 million

0:28:13

minute by minute they don't even want to

0:28:15

take an afternoon of risk but that's

0:28:18

okay so I think that it's a long-winded

0:28:21

answer to your question but it's we're

0:28:24

just going to provide Securities to to

0:28:27

every pool of Capital if if what you

0:28:29

want is that instrument if we think it's

0:28:32

good for our common stock shareholders

0:28:34

we'll sell it I mean ultimately there's

0:28:36

a lot of instruments we could create

0:28:37

that are kind of dilutive to us so we're

0:28:39

not going to but you know there's the

0:28:42

dude that wants investment grade fixed

0:28:44

income guaranteed coupon 10x over

0:28:47

collateralize with a bit of boost past

0:28:49

that we're going to give them their

0:28:50

thing there's someone else that wants

0:28:53

20% coupon yield you know outperform

0:28:56

private credit and they want lots of

0:28:58

cash we'll give them their thing there's

0:29:01

somebody else that wants Bitcoin upside

0:29:03

but they want principal protection and

0:29:05

less volatility and we'll give them

0:29:07

their thing right and as we do each of

0:29:11

those things there's a certain uh

0:29:14

economic spread that we capture and when

0:29:18

we're doing it for example if if I sell

0:29:20

a fixed income instrument deep in the

0:29:22

capital structure and 10 10x over

0:29:25

collateralized I have $40 billion of

0:29:27

capital and I sell a billion or two

0:29:29

billion dollars of this senior strip and

0:29:32

I give you I give you

0:29:34

25% of the gain of

0:29:38

Bitcoin okay when you work that out in

0:29:40

your head you realize at a minimum 75%

0:29:43

of the economics goes to the common

0:29:45

stock right but it's better than that

0:29:48

because we also get the float yep but

0:29:50

it's better than that because we also

0:29:51

get the volatility yeah so most people

0:29:55

don't have the math but if you're a

0:29:56

Quant right model the value of selling a

0:30:00

fixed income instrument where what I

0:30:02

gave you was a guaranteed coupon and I

0:30:04

gave you over collateralization and

0:30:06

principal security but in return I took

0:30:09

the float I took the ball FR I'm getting

0:30:12

a billion dollars from you and it's

0:30:15

going to trade with a 60 ball right

0:30:18

anybody you it's like a billion dollar

0:30:20

flywheel spending 60 RPM there's energy

0:30:23

in it right yeah so when I get the

0:30:25

billion dollars and and it's spending 60

0:30:29

I can probably sell the volatility for a

0:30:32

100 million a year right so you hand

0:30:34

yeah you hand it to me absolutely I'm

0:30:36

making a 100 million a year holding it

0:30:38

then it's going up 30 to 60% I'm getting

0:30:41

that yeah and then I've also got another

0:30:44

float which is another intangible I'm

0:30:46

holding the capital in the Fiat economy

0:30:49

and that provides collateral for

0:30:52

something else when you put it all

0:30:54

together that means that really the C

0:30:56

the spread is like 85% 80 880 it could

0:31:00

be easily 80 to 85% yeah okay well that

0:31:04

means you sell 10 billion doar of that

0:31:06

instrument you capture eight to eight

0:31:08

and a half billion dollars of

0:31:10

Bitcoin that that you stack on top of

0:31:13

your existing Equity that's the leverage

0:31:17

and the common okay so so the strategy

0:31:21

we pursue is we strip away the risk and

0:31:24

the volatility of the people that hate

0:31:26

it and we just give them something which

0:31:28

is just better than everything else

0:31:30

right it's better than all the bank

0:31:32

preferreds and it's better than all the

0:31:33

real estate preferreds and it's better

0:31:35

than corporate investment grades and

0:31:37

it's better than junk and it's better

0:31:39

than private credit and it's better than

0:31:41

you know better than the S&P it might be

0:31:43

better than a Bitcoin ETF we just give

0:31:45

you something how much better 20% better

0:31:49

better but but then we keep the rest and

0:31:52

the rest goes into

0:31:54

MST MST then does one and a you know our

0:31:58

Target was 1 and a2x Bitcoin but the

0:32:00

truth is we got the 2x yeah so it's just

0:32:04

and then all of that compounds on itself

0:32:06

and well when we're running at 2x

0:32:07

Bitcoin and 2x VA like we have a vault

0:32:10

Bitcoin ball is is 60 we're 120

0:32:14

140 plug that into black

0:32:16

shs right what that means by the way is

0:32:20

if you sell the if you look at the call

0:32:22

rate if I sell a an at the market call

0:32:25

30 days out on ibit you generate 100%

0:32:28

interest if you sell the same call 30

0:32:31

days out on mstr you generate

0:32:34

220% and it's insane that is insane 200%

0:32:38

right you sell that same call on

0:32:43

15% right and then you go and try to

0:32:45

sell that call on B and D on the bond or

0:32:48

on vnq the real estate or on gold good

0:32:51

luck right there's no Mark like there's

0:32:53

no Vault there's no Market nobody wants

0:32:54

to even make a market in that right and

0:32:57

you basically hold the dollar okay well

0:32:59

you get 30 days suur you get

0:33:01

480 basis points so so us Levering our

0:33:08

our permanent Capital gets us to more V

0:33:12

and then the UNC the fact that we're an

0:33:14

operating company means I can sell

0:33:16

Equity at a premium but I don't have to

0:33:19

I can do a convertible Bond but I don't

0:33:21

have to I can issue preferred I don't

0:33:24

have to right you don't know what we're

0:33:26

going to do we could buy our stock back

0:33:28

we don't have to so the uncertainty plus

0:33:31

the permanent capital P the plus the the

0:33:34

There's No Redemption right like right

0:33:37

right like you know black rock or

0:33:39

someone else I envy them because they

0:33:41

have more Capital but it's it's

0:33:42

overnight deposits right okay so you

0:33:45

could have what would you rather have a

0:33:47

hundred billion dollars in overnight

0:33:49

deposits in your bank or $50

0:33:52

billion that you have forever that no

0:33:54

one gets back right so we have the

0:33:56

permanent capital

0:33:58

we can lever it we have the option to

0:34:01

lever it the combination of those things

0:34:04

means that we would even if we weren't

0:34:06

levered I think we would trade at

0:34:08

130% of Bitcoin ball yeah because just

0:34:12

of the uncertainty right but when you

0:34:14

layer a little bit of Leverage on top

0:34:16

maybe you get to to 2X and maybe you

0:34:18

could get to more than twox you might

0:34:20

get to 3x if you do that gives you all

0:34:22

this not no pun tenant all this

0:34:24

optionality right you mean okay and now

0:34:26

we're back to the turbocharger the

0:34:28

supercharger right what we do is we

0:34:31

compress this Capital we put leverage on

0:34:34

it and then we feed it right back into

0:34:36

the engine because we we can issue

0:34:39

convertible bonds that are actually

0:34:42

boosted by MST right that's how the bond

0:34:46

the bond could be half you know we could

0:34:49

sell a bond theoretically that zero

0:34:51

coupon up 100 right and if mstr is 2x

0:34:55

Bitcoin the bond is 1x Bitcoin coin

0:34:58

right but the bond is still got

0:35:02

theoretically 50 to

0:35:05

65% spread in it or economic boost to

0:35:09

the common stock so if you understand

0:35:11

the float to spread the volatility when

0:35:14

you when you plug everything into

0:35:18

everything we basically use the common

0:35:20

to go back even we could use the common

0:35:23

to pay the Cash coupon to pay a cash

0:35:25

dividend but when we're paying the cash

0:35:27

dividend we wouldn't be paying

0:35:30

6% in cash we would be raising the cash

0:35:34

by selling equity which is valued three

0:35:37

to four to five to 10x the underlying

0:35:40

assets so our effective cost of capital

0:35:42

isn't six it's two yeah or one right and

0:35:46

then you're like well where's the

0:35:47

premium comp from because we're actually

0:35:50

getting an 80% boost on the Strip that

0:35:53

we sold the fixed income and we're

0:35:55

feeding it back into the common so we're

0:35:59

in the business of creating this Capital

0:36:03

amplifier y triple amplifier you know

0:36:06

we're we're boosting The Leverage on the

0:36:08

common we're we're boosting the return

0:36:12

on all of these other instruments

0:36:15

because we're using the common and then

0:36:18

we're feeding it back into the Bitcoin

0:36:19

Network which is driving up the price of

0:36:22

Bitcoin right you know which is helping

0:36:25

everybody

0:36:26

else which is bringing more companies so

0:36:29

so it's a very virtuous cycle with about

0:36:32

three or four very powerful positive

0:36:34

feedback loops that are all engineered

0:36:37

yeah and then one last point which

0:36:39

is you you got to be 100%

0:36:43

Bitcoin like the reason we can do

0:36:46

it is because we are we are $40 billion

0:36:52

of Bitcoin

0:36:54

Capital 60 or $50 million of USD MH and

0:37:00

nothing yeah of anything else no real

0:37:02

estate right no other coin no other no

0:37:05

other good idea the thing that I try to

0:37:08

get across to people with the laser eyes

0:37:11

and the focus is is sometimes the least

0:37:16

risky thing is not to diversify right

0:37:20

when you've got an engineering solution

0:37:22

when you're building an airplane and

0:37:24

someone says aluminum is the right metal

0:37:27

diversifying into copper bronze steel

0:37:30

and aluminum doesn't make the plane less

0:37:32

risky right right if the you don't need

0:37:38

it's it's not like this everybody's got

0:37:40

to have their turn we got to we got to

0:37:42

like use a little bit of Art and a

0:37:44

little bit of real estate and a little

0:37:45

bit of gold a little bit of Bitcoin and

0:37:47

a little bit of what Nvidia stock right

0:37:50

it's that doesn't work it breaks the

0:37:53

machine right it's the homogeneity of

0:37:57

the of the fuel right we don't put 16

0:38:00

different types of radioactive elements

0:38:02

into the you know yeah pick the thing

0:38:05

engineer the reactor for the thing you

0:38:08

know you put dirty fuel into the into

0:38:11

the yacht the engine fouls you put dirty

0:38:14

gasoline into the car it fouls right so

0:38:17

you have to engineer the reactor in the

0:38:20

right way and it's you know it's like

0:38:23

the austrians would say about money any

0:38:26

amount will do

0:38:28

you just have to

0:38:29

pick the money right right right bu

0:38:33

metalism silver and gold is a recipe to

0:38:36

disaster yeah pick one focus on it so

0:38:41

what we've done is we've focused on

0:38:42

bitcoin we've created a Bitcoin treasury

0:38:45

company it's a crypto Reactor with

0:38:48

Bitcoin is the fuel because we do that

0:38:52

we can give our converts the highest

0:38:54

performance of any convertible bonds and

0:38:56

we can give our f fixed income the

0:38:58

highest performance of any fixed income

0:39:01

and we can give homogeneous credit and

0:39:05

transparency and here's the other point

0:39:07

I make a lot of times people come and

0:39:08

they're like I want to do the Bitcoin

0:39:10

standard thing but but I think I should

0:39:12

I'm GNA hedge I'm gonna I'm gonna put in

0:39:14

this put hedge thing or maybe I should

0:39:17

do some of this and some of that you

0:39:20

know I'm like no that's not the engine

0:39:23

no yeah no don't you know you don't

0:39:28

hedge you don't want to

0:39:30

be 72% Bitcoin with 30% Hedges on to

0:39:35

generate guarantee

0:39:36

yield you want to be

0:39:39

150% Bitcoin no Hedges on but but but

0:39:45

yeah because you're robbing the investor

0:39:49

of their opportunity when you put your

0:39:51

Hedges on there's a there's a concept in

0:39:54

System Dynamics and political economy

0:39:57

the shifting of the burden to the

0:39:59

intervener yeah okay it's like because

0:40:03

you you chose to do it I don't have to

0:40:07

okay so when I give you a

0:40:11

Bitcoin company and I don't hedge it and

0:40:14

I tell you I'm not going to hedge it you

0:40:17

don't believe me for a while you're

0:40:19

going to you're going to rug pull me

0:40:20

you're going to take profits you're

0:40:21

going to right it takes a long time for

0:40:24

people to trust you right but your best

0:40:28

chance to get people to trust you is if

0:40:30

you're laser like focused and committed

0:40:33

and transparent and you never break

0:40:35

Faith with them they're like this is by

0:40:38

the way this is tough love when Bitcoin

0:40:40

trades down 80% and you wanted me to

0:40:43

bail out I didn't I'm sorry you know all

0:40:46

those Bond holders they came to me when

0:40:49

when the bonds the bonds were trading 30

0:40:53

cents and 40 and they wanted me to issue

0:40:56

Equity to buy them back

0:40:58

back said no we're keeping our position

0:41:01

they said well this is a big opportunity

0:41:03

for you you could buy these bonds back

0:41:05

below par I said no this is a big

0:41:09

opportunity for

0:41:10

you you're the convertible Bond investor

0:41:13

you have to buy bonds with your capital

0:41:16

for a living that's your opportunity my

0:41:19

job is to issue the Securities and stay

0:41:22

and stay long Bitcoin buy Bitcoin hold

0:41:26

the Bitcoin manage the structure don't

0:41:28

get liquidated that's my job your job is

0:41:32

to buy the equity or if you don't want

0:41:34

to buy the equity buy the bonds the

0:41:36

short story is the bonds went from 30 to

0:41:39

300 right like they were they were

0:41:41

screaming home runs the most lucrative

0:41:44

thing you could have done the simplest

0:41:46

most brainless thing imaginable was at

0:41:49

the bottom of the crypto winter you

0:41:51

could have bought all of these micro

0:41:53

strategy convertible bonds at 50% 60%

0:41:57

below par they were and the joke of

0:42:00

course is they were guaranteed to pay at

0:42:03

par right I was like I would have bought

0:42:05

them guys if my lawyers would let me buy

0:42:07

these I would have bought them they were

0:42:09

guaranteed to pay off right and yet what

0:42:12

you the only thing you had to know to

0:42:14

make that money was you just had to do

0:42:16

the research and figure out the Bitcoin

0:42:18

was something real once you figured that

0:42:20

out it was very

0:42:22

straightforward so coming back to this

0:42:24

point it's when you hedge and when and

0:42:29

when you're

0:42:30

heterogeneous you rob the rest of the

0:42:33

market of their opportunity the

0:42:35

opportunity for the convertible

0:42:37

Arbitrage is they get to ARB that

0:42:40

instrument the options Traders get to

0:42:43

trade the options the the haters get to

0:42:45

short and they get a great short

0:42:47

opportunity the guys that are long get

0:42:49

to go long the degenerate Traders they

0:42:51

get their thing everybody can go take

0:42:54

their Bloomberg and they build a little

0:42:56

model and like you know well the the the

0:42:59

$800 call strikes two years out are

0:43:03

mispriced versus the one year out $700

0:43:06

call strikes I'm going to sell one and

0:43:09

buy the other one and lock the

0:43:10

difference yeah everybody's got to have

0:43:12

their thing and so the point is if

0:43:15

you're thinking as a public company that

0:43:18

you're going to take a Bloomberg and

0:43:19

trade you're a fool

0:43:22

because what you can do that they can't

0:43:26

do buy Bitcoin hold the Bitcoin issue

0:43:30

the Securities that they need you to do

0:43:32

that Y and what they what they can do is

0:43:38

is Buy trade Arbitrage short go long and

0:43:42

you want them to do that so when you

0:43:45

start to to move into the territory of

0:43:48

your partners and you take their

0:43:50

opportunity like like if if I was like

0:43:54

could you imagine if I put on a press

0:43:55

release yeah bitcoin's zoomed above

0:43:57

100,000 we decided to take money off the

0:44:00

table we locked in our

0:44:02

gains everybody would go ballistic yeah

0:44:04

yeah and then they would never trust us

0:44:06

ever again yeah I mean for all of those

0:44:08

people and I'm like you don't understand

0:44:11

like the world doesn't give a they don't

0:44:14

care that you're the world's most

0:44:15

brilliant Trader and you do like 187

0:44:18

opaque things to make a billion dollars

0:44:21

if you show me a hedge fund that makes a

0:44:24

billion dollars in an opaque way I don't

0:44:27

want to invest a dime in

0:44:28

you like not not like what how would I

0:44:31

Val I'm not going to why would I you're

0:44:34

like some smart guy that makes some

0:44:35

money in a way I don't know how but

0:44:37

maybe you won't next year good for you

0:44:39

but I don't I can't bet on that yeah I

0:44:41

would rather invest in a guy that loses

0:44:44

a billion dollars in a way that I

0:44:46

understand it's like oh Bitcoin traded

0:44:48

down five ,000 oh yeah you just lost a

0:44:53

billion do you know Bitcoin when Bitcoin

0:44:55

moves like 2 ,500 down we lose a billion

0:44:59

yeah but now I can go you know I go buy

0:45:02

that yeah and you and everyone knows

0:45:04

exactly why yeah it's like the world's

0:45:06

got infinite Capital they want they want

0:45:09

the security so the real key here if

0:45:13

you're running a public company is pick

0:45:15

a strategy solve a problem for the

0:45:18

market be consistent reliable

0:45:20

trustworthy and you know if the market

0:45:23

move trades down

0:45:25

90% you know the most lucrative trade in

0:45:28

the world was like to buy micro strategy

0:45:30

stock at the bottom of the crypto winter

0:45:32

right yeah absolutely right I mean I

0:45:34

think our stock got down to $13 a share

0:45:37

1 you know not that long ago $13 a share

0:45:41

you're up over 400 right now yeah and so

0:45:44

and so for us to unwind the trade would

0:45:48

Unwound like I think

0:45:51

literally it's a98 billion

0:45:55

mistake yeah to basically Flinch yeah at

0:45:59

the bottom of the market and by the way

0:46:02

it never occurred to me like why would

0:46:03

we had a strategy of course I'm not

0:46:05

going to it's just the conventional rest

0:46:08

of the world they were all asking they

0:46:09

were like you definitely should I'm like

0:46:11

you guys out of your mind I saw stories

0:46:12

that were like Michael sailor bet big on

0:46:14

bitcoin and lost I think it was like a

0:46:15

four was the headline in the wall yeah

0:46:18

it's like um let me ask you Michael you

0:46:20

talked about other companies you you I

0:46:22

was um I was at your Bitcoin for

0:46:25

Corporation conference in Las Vegas

0:46:26

early earlier this year yeah um you gave

0:46:28

a great presentation there you just gave

0:46:30

a presentation to the Microsoft board of

0:46:33

directors uh which had a lot of the

0:46:34

slides from your uh talk in Las Vegas um

0:46:39

they have like 80 billion in cash on

0:46:41

their balance sheet like you're talking

0:46:44

about not how it's not efficient it

0:46:46

messes up the engine if you in in this

0:46:49

pot whether it's your operating business

0:46:50

or on your balance you have all this

0:46:51

other stuff of course they have a lot of

0:46:53

stuff what's the pitch exact like

0:46:54

broadly speaking for an operating

0:46:56

company not for a a micro strategy or

0:46:59

metap planet where where it's a Bitcoin

0:47:01

engine company at this point but for

0:47:03

like a Microsoft like like should they

0:47:05

be doing 2% like or should they be

0:47:08

plowing a lot more in right I mean I've

0:47:09

seen this the talk I think 2% is silly I

0:47:13

think I think traditional financial

0:47:15

advisors that want to talk work Bitcoin

0:47:18

into their talk script so they sound

0:47:21

cool and adding one or two can improve

0:47:24

the sharp and what that's buying an

0:47:26

insurance

0:47:27

policy right that's like me pitching you

0:47:29

on life insurance just in case I I mean

0:47:32

it's not a way to live it's not a you

0:47:34

know you're not going to you know live

0:47:36

joyfully forever and put your family you

0:47:39

know you're not going to provide

0:47:40

generational wealth for your family and

0:47:42

put your kids through college and get a

0:47:43

yacht and a third vacation yeah home and

0:47:47

be universally idolized because you

0:47:49

bought flood

0:47:50

insurance right so uh yeah I'm not

0:47:54

against buying insurance or auto

0:47:55

insurance I just think think uh not that

0:47:58

interesting um here's my view on

0:48:01

Microsoft and this the same for pretty

0:48:04

much every company certainly The

0:48:05

Magnificent Seven you have a good

0:48:08

company you're generating cash flow a

0:48:10

lot of cash investors invested their

0:48:13

money in you so now your choice is you

0:48:17

can invest in the core business to grow

0:48:19

the business you can but but let's

0:48:22

assume you're investing as much as you

0:48:23

can come up with and then the cash flow

0:48:25

you've got that's excess you just don't

0:48:27

know how to grow the p&l anymore well

0:48:29

then you either hold it as Bonds on your

0:48:32

balance sheet you pay it out as a

0:48:35

dividend you buy your stock back or you

0:48:39

go and you do a merger and you pay cash

0:48:41

for the

0:48:42

merger and so we tick those off uh doing

0:48:46

mergers and Acquisitions 90% to 95%

0:48:51

failure rate right I mean HP did a

0:48:54

disastrous acquisition I mean the number

0:48:56

of disastrous Acquisitions where the

0:48:58

companies overvalued by 2 to 10 yeah

0:49:01

most like to if I were to say 5% of the

0:49:04

Acquisitions are

0:49:07

successful

0:49:09

economically I think I might be

0:49:11

overstating the case but I'd be very

0:49:12

optimistic but I I'm sure 90 to 95% are

0:49:17

um a disaster and you don't really know

0:49:20

whether they're a disaster for like

0:49:22

three two to four years so you can

0:49:25

embark on that course which is

0:49:28

statistically you know a bad outcome and

0:49:31

it's a slow outcome it's costly just to

0:49:33

effect and how how many of these big

0:49:35

mergers they're still fighting uh in

0:49:38

litigation over the merger to get

0:49:39

approval or whatever a year after they

0:49:42

announce it it takes forever it's very

0:49:45

dilutive it's

0:49:46

distracting and most of the time it

0:49:49

destroys shareholder value yep um so

0:49:53

that's not great yeah so the next thing

0:49:55

is I pay a dividend yeah okay well so

0:49:59

that's the CEO of the company saying you

0:50:02

know I'm abdicating my responsibility on

0:50:04

invest your money I don't know how to

0:50:05

invest the money in fact I'm so confused

0:50:07

about how to invest the money I'm just

0:50:09

going to pay 40% of it in tax to the US

0:50:12

government and give you the remainder

0:50:14

and then tell you to go figure it out

0:50:16

which is kind of rude to the shareholder

0:50:18

isn't it I think it's I think it's so

0:50:20

it's awful it's a especially for uh I I

0:50:25

think it's awful for a bunch of reasons

0:50:27

one they bought a stock they wanted this

0:50:30

they wanted a capital gain in the stock

0:50:32

they want the stock to go up in value

0:50:34

and so you're converting a capital gain

0:50:37

you're forcibly converting a capital

0:50:39

gain into a taxable distribution for an

0:50:42

equity investor if they wanted a a

0:50:44

taxable distribution they should be a

0:50:46

fixed income investor if you're going to

0:50:48

do that my view is issue a preferred

0:50:50

stock or issue a bond and pay it to

0:50:52

someone who's a willing recipient I

0:50:55

think actually jamming a dividend on an

0:50:58

equity investor it converts your company

0:51:01

from a growth company and a tax

0:51:04

efficient Equity it converts you into a

0:51:06

hybrid where you're kind of half fixed

0:51:08

income half Equity you're basically

0:51:11

telling the world you're not a Growth

0:51:12

Company

0:51:13

anymore you're not sure how to

0:51:16

grow and you really would like to find a

0:51:19

lot of risk adverse investors that don't

0:51:22

even believe in growth right that are

0:51:25

happy to pay tax you know excessive

0:51:28

taxes so that strikes me as you've lost

0:51:32

you've lost focus on your investors

0:51:34

you're trifurcating or bifurcating the

0:51:36

investor Community you're incurring an

0:51:38

unnecessary tax bill you're signaling

0:51:40

weakness insecurity

0:51:42

confusion and you're waiting for a bunch

0:51:44

of retirees who are risk adverse and

0:51:46

terrified of losing their money you're

0:51:49

you're waiting for them to figure out

0:51:50

how to reinvest the

0:51:52

dividend right right and so I I I can't

0:51:55

see that that makes a lot of strategic

0:51:58

sense and so then that leaves you with

0:52:00

the buyback yeah okay you got a company

0:52:04

and you don't know how to grow the

0:52:05

company with your cash so you're just

0:52:08

going to buy your own stock back it

0:52:11

sounds kind of good but you're

0:52:13

surrendering the capital you're

0:52:16

surrendering the capital so if the

0:52:19

company had you know it had uh hundred

0:52:22

billion dollar of cash well you know the

0:52:25

company's worth at least 100 billion

0:52:27

but when you buy back 10% of the stock

0:52:30

the company has zero or a billion in

0:52:32

cash or you know a razor thin layer of

0:52:34

working capital now the stock trades up

0:52:39

10% maybe but the company has lost 95%

0:52:44

of its tangible assets how is that not

0:52:47

riskier what you're doing is you're

0:52:49

Levering up the company on forward

0:52:51

expectations y so if we come back to

0:52:54

Microsoft Microsoft

0:52:57

um the entire Enterprise Value is B is

0:53:00

95 sometimes 97 to

0:53:04

98% between 98 and 95% of it is based on

0:53:08

just forward expectations nothing

0:53:10

tangible like it's it's it's you're

0:53:14

going to generate x billion dollars of

0:53:16

income this quarter I multiply it by

0:53:21

144 Lord help you if you're a billion

0:53:23

short right that's 144 billion if you

0:53:27

actually change the guidance right these

0:53:30

stocks basically that people this is the

0:53:33

irony conventional wisdom is well um

0:53:37

it's responsible to pay out the dividend

0:53:39

and buy back the

0:53:41

stock but you realize you're literally

0:53:44

creating 144 to1 lever on your next

0:53:49

quarter of result or 150 or 200 to one

0:53:53

and you're asking the market to Value

0:53:55

the company B based on future

0:53:57

expectations so we come back to

0:54:01

Microsoft Microsoft is just valued on

0:54:03

expectations right now if there's an

0:54:05

Anti-Trust ruling or a neg negative

0:54:08

regulatory thing a competitive

0:54:10

development a management failing right I

0:54:13

mean half of the market cap can just go

0:54:16

away now how do you solve the problem

0:54:19

well the conventional solution if you

0:54:22

live in a US dollar standard world and

0:54:25

you're buying your stock back and

0:54:26

dividing your stock back or dividing the

0:54:29

cash flows out and you're holding a very

0:54:32

razor thin amount of um of uh

0:54:37

treasuries then the way that you drisk

0:54:40

the Share the shareholder dilemma is you

0:54:43

require your customers to sign

0:54:45

three-year agreements Enterprise

0:54:47

agreements then you bundle into the

0:54:50

Enterprise agreement 16

0:54:52

products and then you build in

0:54:54

escalators every year and it becomes uh

0:54:58

you try to turn it into a real estate

0:55:00

rental project a rental company and now

0:55:03

the now the co customers got to buy

0:55:04

everything you sell and how they how do

0:55:07

they not renew right that's that is the

0:55:10

software as a service model that wants

0:55:12

to be a long-term

0:55:14

lease and it's it sounds kind of good by

0:55:17

the way I lived that I was a CEO of that

0:55:20

company I'm like it sounds kind of good

0:55:22

and that's the Mantra of software

0:55:24

companies and that's the you know

0:55:26

everybody wants to be I sell three-year

0:55:29

agreements with CPI plus 3% escalators

0:55:32

and then I just bundle another thing uh

0:55:36

and so now what do you got you got

0:55:37

Harvard B School CFO and he's like I

0:55:40

stripped the volatility off the balance

0:55:42

sheet by getting rid of everything other

0:55:44

than t- bills oh about I got rid of the

0:55:47

long the 10y year and the 30-year t-

0:55:48

bills I just have 30-day treasuries yeah

0:55:51

good for you check and I stripped the

0:55:55

volatility off of the p&l because every

0:55:58

Co every customer has to buy our

0:56:00

software on three-year renewable

0:56:02

contracts with a price escalator and and

0:56:05

you know good for you how do you think

0:56:08

the customers feel about that how do you

0:56:10

think the competitors feel about that

0:56:12

you just bundle the competitor's product

0:56:14

into your Enterprise agreement so what

0:56:16

do they do they go to The Regulators

0:56:18

they sue you for antitrust so the

0:56:21

conventional strategy for Microsoft

0:56:24

which is the conventional strategy for

0:56:26

every software company and I don't know

0:56:29

how many companies go down this path

0:56:32

that can you know Apple service Revenue

0:56:34

we're just going to have apple Prime and

0:56:36

you're going to buy you know everything

0:56:38

put all in the one device you got to

0:56:40

carry what's your monthly fee on that

0:56:42

you're G to cancel you know did you buy

0:56:44

the gaming thing that you don't use you

0:56:46

get the iCloud data storage yeah okay

0:56:49

okay you just forgot to pay your bill

0:56:50

and of course all your memories

0:56:51

disappear and your friends and your

0:56:53

photos yeah it's it's a hostage

0:56:55

situation okay

0:56:57

so that's a conventional strategy I view

0:57:00

that as a road to Surf them for the

0:57:02

company because the this is the Fiat

0:57:05

strategy right you're going down this

0:57:07

strategy of I have no assets I have no

0:57:11

Capital therefore I only live on

0:57:14

expectations therefore I make my

0:57:16

Executives work harder my employees work

0:57:18

harder my customers have to sign into

0:57:21

this program eventually you get this

0:57:24

customer Revolt or competitor Vault you

0:57:27

have to choose between one constituency

0:57:28

or the shareholder someone is going to

0:57:32

out so how do you fix it there's a

0:57:34

there's a path to prosperity and the

0:57:36

path to Prosperity is Bitcoin you adopt

0:57:39

a different capital structure you

0:57:41

recapitalize on BTC instead of

0:57:45

USD and if you if you start thinking

0:57:48

differently BTC is 60% AR 60 Vol instead

0:57:53

of z00 yep okay okay when you

0:57:57

recapitalize on BTC now let's take that

0:58:01

excess cash if Microsoft takes their

0:58:04

excess cash and buys Bitcoin they add

0:58:06

$150 a share and a trillion dollars to

0:58:09

the market cap they don't even have to

0:58:10

change the dividend right or the

0:58:12

BuyBacks you just make a trillion

0:58:14

dollars and you and you crank 150 bucks

0:58:16

or more into the business because now

0:58:19

you're investing in uh something that's

0:58:21

uh that beats the cost of capital now

0:58:24

there's a little chart you should have

0:58:25

in your head

0:58:27

the S&P index is the cost of capital

0:58:29

it's plus 15 for the last four years if

0:58:32

you normalize that then Bitcoin is up

0:58:36

48% over that yeah Microsoft stock is up

0:58:41

4% and bonds are minus

0:58:44

19% so when you have a hundred billion

0:58:46

do of capital if you put into Bitcoin

0:58:48

you're getting 10 times the ARR you get

0:58:51

from just buying your own stock back

0:58:53

while you

0:58:54

drisk right the difference over 10

0:58:58

years choosing to buy your stock back

0:59:01

with that that cash instead of buying

0:59:03

Bitcoin is minus

0:59:04

97% destruction of the capital choosing

0:59:08

to put that money into the bond is minus

0:59:17

99.7% destruction of the capital so it's

0:59:17

blood curdling and what and so you

0:59:19

follow that to its conclusion it's like

0:59:22

convert the cash you make a

0:59:24

trillion convert the divid in you make

0:59:26

another trillion out another $150 a

0:59:28

share convert to BuyBacks you make

0:59:31

another trillion it's another $150 a

0:59:33

share take all that borrow money at

0:59:36

4% Microsoft could borrow money at 3%

0:59:40

yeah you know 10% loan to value at 3%

0:59:43

invested at 30 to 60% make another

0:59:46

trillion and so literally using the

0:59:49

balance sheet doubles the value of the

0:59:51

company instead of being valued 95% on

0:59:55

expectation

0:59:56

you could get it down to 50% on

0:59:59

expectations and the other 50% is

1:00:01

tangible assets appreciating in the

1:00:04

worst case 20% a year right so that's

1:00:08

the logic of a Bitcoin strategy and of

1:00:12

course it's not a 2% insurance policy no

1:00:15

it's a policy to increase the growth

1:00:18

rate of the company by 50 to

1:00:20

100% and decrease the risk by a factor

1:00:23

of 10 it's a very powerful pitch um

1:00:26

I got some other questions by the way I

1:00:28

recommend everybody check out that three

1:00:30

minutes uh pitch are you g to go back by

1:00:32

the way I heard maybe you're going to go

1:00:33

back and present again i' probably go

1:00:34

back and do it in 30 minutes because

1:00:36

there's a lot of subtlety there that you

1:00:39

don't get through in 180 seconds totally

1:00:40

totally but you did a good job

1:00:42

compressing that um you know I had

1:00:44

people have this question they ask me

1:00:46

this I don't I don't know the answer

1:00:47

you've talked a bit about it you've got

1:00:49

400,000 Bitcoin micro strategy does um

1:00:52

it's about 2% of the Bitcoin

1:00:54

Supply how much is enough when does that

1:00:57

step do you like how much Bitcoin will

1:01:00

micro strategy have I you know I laugh

1:01:04

you know Dave poroy complains about

1:01:06

buying it at 10 and panic selling it and

1:01:08

then he's like oh I bought it at 40 oh I

1:01:10

I hit the wrong button you know you know

1:01:13

all these things and now it's 100,000

1:01:15

and what I've said and I said this to

1:01:17

Tucker crosson on television I said I'm

1:01:19

going to be buying the top forever I

1:01:21

mean here's what I tell you when

1:01:22

bitcoin's a million dollars a coin I bet

1:01:27

I will probably buy a billion dollars of

1:01:29

it at a million of coin probably in one

1:01:34

yep and when it's 2 million I will

1:01:37

probably be doing it again in one day

1:01:39

and when it's 10 million I will be doing

1:01:41

a billion dollar or more in one day

1:01:43

right and so we're not

1:01:46

stopping the big idea here is there's

1:01:50

$450 trillion of Assets in Equity Real

1:01:55

Estate fixed income that store value

1:01:58

Assets in the 20th century

1:02:00

economy there's two

1:02:03

trillion in Bitcoin in the 21st century

1:02:06

economy we're the bridge we're going to

1:02:10

continue to create Bitcoin back

1:02:12

Securities to channel that capital from

1:02:19

inefficient an inefficient uh energy

1:02:22

form to a more efficient structure when

1:02:26

you if I give you a billion and you

1:02:28

invest in a diversified portfolio of

1:02:31

African real estate companies and Equity

1:02:35

Investments that's a very inefficient

1:02:38

portfolio if I take the same billion and

1:02:40

I pull it into Bitcoin and I eliminate

1:02:42

your counterparty risk to every country

1:02:45

in Africa and every company and every

1:02:47

currency in

1:02:49

Africa that's a much more efficient

1:02:51

thing that gives off energy so I don't

1:02:54

see why we wouldn't just keep growing

1:02:58

every year forever there'll be a point

1:03:02

when Bitcoin is a three four 500

1:03:05

trillion dollar asset

1:03:08

class and maybe there's you know if it

1:03:11

if I don't know if it'll ever equalize

1:03:14

we'll see but I mean this could be this

1:03:16

will probably be a th000 trillion and

1:03:18

this will be 500 trillion and there's

1:03:20

still going to be normies there's still

1:03:22

going to be people that're like I'd

1:03:23

rather buy my government bonds or the

1:03:26

government told me I had to capitalize

1:03:28

my bank on the bonds or I want to buy

1:03:30

this there's still going to be that

1:03:32

there's there's always going to be in my

1:03:35

opinion there's going to be a spread

1:03:37

between say the

1:03:39

S&P uh if the S&P is

1:03:42

155 and Bitcoin is 60 to 60 I think the

1:03:45

Bitcoin is tracking toward the S&P and

1:03:48

the S&P is going to track up because the

1:03:51

S&P companies will flip the whole

1:03:53

Bitcoin y but there's always going to be

1:03:55

this risk premium which you know

1:03:57

theoretically is up to

1:04:00

6% because of the counterparty risk of

1:04:04

you've got an attack surface you've got

1:04:05

a company you've got a currency you've

1:04:07

got management risk Etc all this and as

1:04:09

long as that that uh risk exists there's

1:04:14

always going to be some kind of

1:04:16

Arbitrage

1:04:18

opportunity I think it's super

1:04:19

interesting stick with this longer term

1:04:22

Vision let's say you call it a five it

1:04:24

could be 500 trillion I don't know pick

1:04:26

the most bullish utopian outcome for BTC

1:04:29

in general like maybe it's the does

1:04:31

become the global Reserve currency look

1:04:33

I would just focus people on my 21-year

1:04:35

forecast is it goes up 29% AR on average

1:04:40

which means it's

1:04:41

60% grinding down to 20% over 21 years

1:04:46

and it grows to 13 million of coin and

1:04:49

it grows to 280 million in the asset and

1:04:54

of course there's plus or minus rails

1:04:55

there's the bare case and then there's

1:04:58

the bull case it could go faster it

1:05:00

could go less by the way you did put out

1:05:02

a great model which is on GitHub but yes

1:05:05

it's Bitcoin 24 you can download it you

1:05:07

can plug in your own assumptions about

1:05:09

everything come up with your own model

1:05:11

but you know like I'm focused on the 21

1:05:13

years because I think that's as much as

1:05:15

any politician any business executive

1:05:19

any normal investor can manage and and

1:05:23

I'm sure that if I'm lucky enough to be

1:05:24

in good health yeah

1:05:26

you know I will come Trot out in 21

1:05:28

years and I will give you the next 21y

1:05:30

year model and that will be a much a

1:05:33

much better articulated more nuanced one

1:05:36

that'll take into account the the8

1:05:38

billion robot flying cars yeah you know

1:05:41

and all the other stuff the telepathic

1:05:43

DNA nanobot you know inlays we have but

1:05:48

right now I think that that's enough and

1:05:50

you can you can imagine and build any

1:05:52

kind of business and chart a strategy

1:05:55

for your family your business or your

1:05:58

country based upon that model which I

1:06:00

think is beneficial to most people I

1:06:02

think that makes a lot of sense um yeah

1:06:04

thinking a 100 years in a I don't think

1:06:06

anyone can really do that in any case

1:06:08

not much it's not realistic yeah a lot

1:06:10

will change and I think 21 months is too

1:06:12

short yeah yeah I think a lot of people

1:06:14

fall into 21 week 21 day 21 month trap

1:06:17

and that paralyzes them it's like it's

1:06:20

like Dave well I miss Bitcoin he missed

1:06:22

Bitcoin at 20,000 40,000 100,000 and my

1:06:26

response is Dave you could still buy it

1:06:27

for less than a million yeah what the

1:06:29

heck you what's your issue it's

1:06:31

currently trading at you're getting a

1:06:32

90% discount to a million I'll be buying

1:06:35

a billion at a million so why just can't

1:06:37

you man

1:06:39

up buy $100,000 Bitcoin and stop quit

1:06:43

your whining I love it um right you know

1:06:46

uh a couple other questions that are

1:06:47

interesting here what about you know uh

1:06:49

FDR executive order 6102 tried well made

1:06:53

the private banned the private ownership

1:06:54

of gold doesn't feel certainly right now

1:06:56

like there's a risk of that for Bitcoin

1:06:58

but is that something that you worry

1:06:59

about at all with

1:07:01

M Community is really just just wrapped

1:07:05

around the axle on this issue and I

1:07:07

think it started 15 years ago with

1:07:11

someone saying this is a cryptocurrency

1:07:13

and then someone else said there has to

1:07:14

be a currency and look what happened

1:07:17

with the and and it's like the reserve

1:07:21

currency and look what happened to gold

1:07:23

and so that'll happen to us I think what

1:07:25

they're missing is it's not a currency

1:07:28

capital I think that's the fundamental

1:07:30

issue you just have to come to grips

1:07:31

with it it is not digital currency it is

1:07:34

not cryptocurrency it is digital Capital

1:07:37

it is crypto capital and if you think

1:07:40

deeply about this you realize that money

1:07:44

money it bifurcates into a medium

1:07:47

exchange legal tender which is a

1:07:49

currency and store of value investment

1:07:54

asset which is capital and once you get

1:07:57

to that point where you embrace the idea

1:08:00

it's Capital not currency it frees you

1:08:02

from this pernicious notion that it's

1:08:05

got to replace the dollar it's got to

1:08:07

compete with the dollar it's got to

1:08:09

compete with other currencies that the

1:08:11

truth is the cryptocurrency the digital

1:08:14

currency is

1:08:16

tether and circle it's it's a stable

1:08:19

coin us do that is the digital currency

1:08:22

and if you want to fixate on it that's

1:08:24

the one and the debate is whether or not

1:08:27

that's going to go to 10 trillion

1:08:29

dollars or a 100 billion and it's and

1:08:32

it's all about the regulatory regime

1:08:34

yeah now if we come back to digital

1:08:37

capital and you know and I like for

1:08:39

kicks I read history I read monetary

1:08:42

history I read Murray rothbart's history

1:08:44

Austrian you know history of economic

1:08:47

thought from an Austrian perspective I

1:08:48

read his money in banking in the US I'm

1:08:51

I read his Great Depression I read the

1:08:53

history of the Roth Charles I read will

1:08:55

and Durant's history of the world I have

1:08:58

read like monetary

1:09:00

histories you know from 17 different

1:09:04

directions every

1:09:06

philosophy and you know there are these

1:09:09

there are these ideas that are tropes

1:09:12

that just aren't really true it's like

1:09:14

oh yeah the Fiat era that's 1971 well no

1:09:18

the truth is we've had debased currency

1:09:20

like in every Century 42 times for the

1:09:24

past 4,000 years the Romans alone like

1:09:27

debased and rebased their their currency

1:09:29

multiple times yeah and so and so

1:09:32

hyperinflation pops up everywhere Credit

1:09:35

Credit dollars pop up everywhere bank

1:09:38

failures pop Fiat currencies pop up

1:09:40

everywhere you know it you

1:09:44

know the the US government in the

1:09:47

Revolutionary War issued the Continental

1:09:50

you know and and they they de debased it

1:09:54

200 to one like

1:09:55

99.5% collapse Y and they're like but

1:09:58

every state issued Their Own Credit at

1:10:00

the same time they all collaps and

1:10:03

defaulted and that's sort of interesting

1:10:05

but it happened again in the Civil War

1:10:07

multiple times then it happened a few

1:10:09

more times but if you go back to the

1:10:11

Massachusetts Bay Colony you'll find

1:10:13

that the Puritans did it in 1620 1667

1:10:17

like every 40 years it happened in in

1:10:21

Massachusetts before we even had a

1:10:22

country yeah like you know why they

1:10:25

wanted to issue paper currency to go

1:10:27

fight Wars they wanted to invade Canada

1:10:30

but but the point is like you're to

1:10:31

you're telling the story about hyper

1:10:33

inflating a currency and defaulting on

1:10:35

it it happens all the time so now let's

1:10:37

go to you know Franklin Roosevelt yeah

1:10:40

what happened there well the dollar was

1:10:43

we we were on a gold a gold exchange

1:10:46

standard we weren't on a gold standard

1:10:48

we went on we we by the way everybody

1:10:50

like when we had the goal standard well

1:10:52

we had the goal standard for like four

1:10:55

years sort of here and it flitted in and

1:10:57

it flitted out and like you find a few

1:11:00

years in every Century going back 2,000

1:11:02

years when you find some go standard and

1:11:05

then you get on the you know the random

1:11:08

debased coin token buy metal standard

1:11:10

and then you go back and then the Empire

1:11:12

collops you do it again right yeah so

1:11:15

you know everybody was off the latest

1:11:18

gold standard in World War to and then

1:11:20

they debased all their currencies and

1:11:22

then the Treaty of Genoa we sort of went

1:11:24

on a Gold Exchange standard but that was

1:11:27

really the it was really the dollar

1:11:30

standard and the pound was based on the

1:11:32

dollar and the dollar was based on gold

1:11:35

and everything else was based on dollars

1:11:37

or pounds and then everybody def

1:11:40

inflated that and officially the dollar

1:11:43

exchange for you know $20 to an ounce of

1:11:47

gold and Franklin Rosevelt wanted a

1:11:49

loose money policy and they already

1:11:53

basically took PE they took gold coins

1:11:55

away away so individuals couldn't

1:11:56

exchange and then and then they went to

1:11:57

a gold bullon standard and and they were

1:12:00

never backed one to one they were never

1:12:02

back they were probably not even back 20

1:12:04

to one who knows and and you get to a

1:12:07

point where you know countries can

1:12:10

exchange their dollars for bullon and I

1:12:13

think the French is that the warship or

1:12:15

whatever the French wanted to exchange

1:12:17

their their pounds for gold with England

1:12:20

and England didn't have the gold and

1:12:22

there was a deal this is like back in

1:12:24

the late 20s and eventually the US said

1:12:28

well you know we'll give you the gold

1:12:31

and they stepped in and at some point

1:12:33

the US realized they couldn't keep doing

1:12:35

it and Roosevelt wanted to Deval devalue

1:12:37

the dollar so the way to devalue the

1:12:40

dollar was I mean closed the goal they

1:12:42

closed the goal window then they then

1:12:45

they devalued the dollar to 35 or

1:12:48

something you know and uh and then they

1:12:52

still froze the wind there was no

1:12:54

settlement Network right right right you

1:12:56

know uh it was still basically you can

1:12:58

have some dollars or you can have some

1:13:00

pounds and they played with that and

1:13:03

then they see you know and by you know

1:13:05

World War II they basically put all the

1:13:07

gold in s Fort Knox and then Britton

1:13:09

woods they just kind of seized it

1:13:11

forever yeah and then we kept debasing

1:13:13

and at some point when the French wanted

1:13:15

it again uh we went completely off it

1:13:19

but here's the

1:13:20

point the US is not on the Bitcoin

1:13:23

standard the US is not pegged you know

1:13:27

if the US said you know

1:13:31

$100,000 equal you know equals Bitcoin

1:13:34

and we will not print any more currency

1:13:36

than that they would be stray jacketing

1:13:39

the US currency and then there would be

1:13:42

some political Dynamic there when I want

1:13:44

to inflate the currency and fight a war

1:13:46

or pay a bill then I have to get off the

1:13:48

Bitcoin standard but the point is it

1:13:51

never went on the Bitcoin standard

1:13:53

when're not on the Bitcoin stand

1:13:55

standard number one number two it's not

1:13:58

currency Jerome pal literal the reason

1:14:01

Bitcoin rallied past 100,000 is because

1:14:04

Jerome pal on stage said to the world

1:14:07

Bitcoin does not compete with the dollar

1:14:09

it competes with gold guess what gold is

1:14:12

not currency you don't buy coffee with

1:14:15

gold you can't settle with gold yeah

1:14:18

right I mean the point is once you

1:14:19

realize gold is a capital asset gold is

1:14:23

a capital asset that's like 77 ball 7

1:14:26

AR7 ball or something it's a it's a

1:14:28

garbagey one you're better off to use

1:14:31

the S&P index as a 155 ball Capital

1:14:34

asset but Bitcoin is a 6060 Capital

1:14:37

asset so Jerome pal underscored that I

1:14:42

think the you know if you thought about

1:14:45

you know I've got a phrase you did not

1:14:47

sell your

1:14:48

Bitcoin right and there are a lot of you

1:14:51

know again Maxis are like no we want it

1:14:53

to be a currency we want be able to pay

1:14:55

for coffee with Bitcoin pay me in

1:14:57

Bitcoin want to and it's like pay me in

1:15:00

Gold it's like pay me in a building it's

1:15:03

pay me with a slice of your professional

1:15:04

sports team pay me with the Picasso yeah

1:15:07

it's you know the point is a Picasso and

1:15:10

a sports team and a building are better

1:15:12

Investments than the dollar or the peso

1:15:16

but if you could just open up your world

1:15:20

view and say the dollar is better than

1:15:23

the peso the dollar is a perfectly fine

1:15:26

Capital asset if you're in a hyperin

1:15:28

lating economy if the if the local

1:15:31

currency is going to zero in 36 months

1:15:34

and you switch to and you recapitalize

1:15:36

on dollars you're going to get rich so

1:15:39

this is all like a frame of

1:15:42

reference right and once you understand

1:15:44

the frame of reference that this thing

1:15:46

is minus

1:15:47

20% to a dude to a dude that's got minus

1:15:52

25% Capital if you offer minus 7%

1:15:55

Capital it looks like a plus 15 you know

1:15:59

yeah percent you don't need to go to

1:16:02

plus 60% Capital so you know what I

1:16:07

would say is you just really have to

1:16:09

understand Bitcoin is digital Capital if

1:16:12

it's digital Capital you know Jerome pal

1:16:16

is totally right it is competing with

1:16:17

gold you should sell your gold gold is

1:16:20

going to get demonetized it's it's gold

1:16:23

is a crappy settlement Network

1:16:25

how do you move 1010 billion of gold in

1:16:27

an hour from here to Tokyo like warships

1:16:29

it's a by by the way as an

1:16:33

aside two things the Spanish Empire

1:16:36

peaked in the 16th Symphony 16th C

1:16:39

Century two

1:16:41

reasons the gold settlement Network

1:16:44

failed they wanted to send gold from

1:16:47

Spain to the Netherlands to pay the

1:16:50

Spanish Army to fight to hold the

1:16:52

Netherlands for this for the Spanish

1:16:55

and the fleet carrying the gold got

1:16:57

washed into a port and Queen Elizabeth

1:17:01

stole the gold it just it collapsed into

1:17:03

the ocean and they they picked it no no

1:17:05

Queen Elizabeth stole oh they had to

1:17:06

dock there and she just they SW into a

1:17:09

British port a harbor and she stole it

1:17:12

she's like I'm not sending it you're my

1:17:14

enemy so the settlement Network failed

1:17:17

and she inter she intercepted all the

1:17:20

money and she bankrupted the Spanish

1:17:23

Army in the Netherlands and that's why

1:17:25

the Netherlands is Protestant today

1:17:27

instead of Catholic okay that's the

1:17:29

first point go was never an effective

1:17:32

settlement Network second

1:17:35

point the Spanish had hyperinflation in

1:17:38

the 16th century why because they

1:17:41

brought back too much gold yeah right

1:17:43

they they discovered all this gold great

1:17:45

well what does that mean bam every

1:17:48

single local economy collapsed prices

1:17:50

went through the roof and this and the

1:17:53

Spanish Empire peaked

1:17:55

when they found the goal so

1:17:57

takeaway goal's not that good as money

1:18:00

everybody you know like the austrians

1:18:02

they wrote the book and everybody's

1:18:04

looking back to sound

1:18:06

money goal was just the least crappy

1:18:10

money yeah right the real story of

1:18:13

civilization

1:18:14

is copper tokens and glass beads and

1:18:17

Tomahawk arrow heads and giant Stone

1:18:20

coin of the Yap people and bales of

1:18:22

tobacco and and silver and you know gold

1:18:27

they were you know and and clippable

1:18:29

gold coins versus better gold coins they

1:18:32

were all just attempts to flee from

1:18:36

Dirty you know imperfect money or dirty

1:18:39

defect dirty defective money and we're

1:18:43

you know and we're getting to the point

1:18:45

where we just had you know heavy not

1:18:49

good money and then Bitcoin comes along

1:18:52

and the entire 20th century is okay

1:18:55

there's some gold there but I don't

1:18:57

think for a hundred years there was

1:18:59

anything looking like any gold

1:19:02

parody and so I I don't think it's

1:19:07

rational and it's not even constructive

1:19:10

to just fixate over and over again on

1:19:14

what happened to gold and how gold got

1:19:16

demonetized gold was demonetized in the

1:19:20

16th century right I mean if you study

1:19:23

any Empire like

1:19:26

Rothchilds like they traded bearer bonds

1:19:29

they were bonds they were pieces of

1:19:31

paper they occasionally used gold at

1:19:34

points in times but the entire 19th

1:19:36

century economy was moving on you know

1:19:39

on sovereign debt issued by the French

1:19:41

government and the UK government the the

1:19:44

Rothchilds didn't get rich because they

1:19:45

were gold dealers right and so there's a

1:19:48

certain fiction or a myth that somehow

1:19:51

there was this point when we had perfect

1:19:52

settlement of gold didn't happen in any

1:19:55

Century I'm aware of there's there's

1:19:58

always been a credit layer Y and and and

1:20:02

Bitcoin is it's property it's Capital

1:20:07

it's going to compete with the S&P it's

1:20:09

going to compete with bonds it's going

1:20:12

to compete with gold it's a better

1:20:14

settlement

1:20:15

network if you live in Cuba if you live

1:20:18

if your country goes

1:20:20

communist you should fear for it and

1:20:23

when the politics turn so socialist with

1:20:25

wealth taxes and unrealized capital

1:20:28

gains taxes and last yeah will will the

1:20:31

Socialist expropriate your property yeah

1:20:35

okay so if you if you believe in

1:20:37

property rights you should agitate

1:20:40

against socialism

1:20:42

expropriation fascism State control of

1:20:46

of things and

1:20:47

communism but Bitcoin is still the best

1:20:52

settlement Network we've had for a

1:20:54

capital in the history of the world it's

1:20:56

the best Capital it is emerging as the

1:20:59

world's Reserve Capital

1:21:01

Network and it's a lot more constructive

1:21:04

use of your time just to tell the US

1:21:06

government or any government just buy it

1:21:08

let me ask you about the Strategic

1:21:09

Reserve idea because it's it's very

1:21:12

interesting as you point out it's not a

1:21:14

it's not a Bitcoin standard there's been

1:21:16

many versions of of proposals obviously

1:21:19

Senator Cynthia lum's Bitcoin Act is one

1:21:22

you said people should sell their gold

1:21:23

to buy Bitcoin that's what the ACT

1:21:25

proposes right and there's a bunch of

1:21:27

other varieties how how should the

1:21:29

government be thinking about this in

1:21:30

your view gold is a shiny dead

1:21:34

Rock sell it all like you really W to if

1:21:39

you want to elevate uh Us's economic

1:21:43

leadership in the world there there are

1:21:44

two very simple

1:21:46

strategies almost three but to dump the

1:21:51

gold and buy Bitcoin because you

1:21:53

simultaneously demonetize the asset held

1:21:56

by your enemies who owns the goal right

1:21:59

you just sell it all and demonetize gold

1:22:03

once and for all put a stake in its

1:22:05

heart and buy Bitcoin and you get 20 25%

1:22:08

of the Bitcoin Network for

1:22:11

free but it's better right you could

1:22:13

just print the money and buy Bitcoin and

1:22:15

keep the gold but it's so much more

1:22:18

intelligent to

1:22:20

demonetize the your enemy's Network and

1:22:23

everybody else's Network networ you

1:22:24

might as well drive gold from a$ 20

1:22:27

trillion asset to A4 trillion asset

1:22:32

devalue the assets of gold held by every

1:22:35

non us

1:22:38

entity Drive Bitcoin to the roof and

1:22:40

then have 25% of the Bitcoin Network

1:22:43

forever uh and so that's a very

1:22:45

straightforward thing the second my

1:22:47

second observation is they ought to just

1:22:50

create a normal regime to issue digital

1:22:52

currency back by us treasuries

1:22:56

like I mean the US ought to have a

1:22:57

framework so tether relocates to New

1:22:59

York City right that's what you want

1:23:01

right and then you ought to basically

1:23:03

have a free-for-all where JP Morgan or

1:23:05

Goldman Sachs can issue their own stable

1:23:08

coin you know people you know if you

1:23:12

want to be non-constructive you can fix

1:23:14

dat in oh yeah the US is G you the the

1:23:16

bitcoin's going to demonetize bonds not

1:23:18

really that's not the constructive thing

1:23:20

I would focus upon the fact that Bitcoin

1:23:22

is going to demonetize the S&P index all

1:23:24

your real estate all your gold right and

1:23:27

other random store of value assets us

1:23:30

bonds are still going to stick around

1:23:32

because Banks need to hold them the

1:23:34

regulated entities need to hold them

1:23:36

they're the safe haven everybody outside

1:23:39

the US would give their left arm to be

1:23:42

capitalized on us bonds right

1:23:46

so what's really going to happen here my

1:23:49

strategy would

1:23:51

be and I really think it's Evil Genius

1:23:53

strategy right if it's like it's so good

1:23:55

right that our Ally our enemies would

1:23:58

hate us but our allies would complain

1:24:00

too and the US would make a hundred

1:24:02

trillion dollars in a heartbeat right

1:24:05

here's the strategy you dump gold

1:24:07

demonetize the entire gold Network you

1:24:09

buy Bitcoin you buy five million or six

1:24:11

million Bitcoin you monetize the Bitcoin

1:24:15

Network all the capital in the world

1:24:18

sitting in Siberian real estate or

1:24:20

Chinese natural gas or every other

1:24:22

currency derivative that's help is a

1:24:24

long-term store of value Europeans

1:24:27

Africans South Americans

1:24:29

Asians they you know they all just dump

1:24:32

their crappy property and their crappy

1:24:35

Capital assets and they buy Bitcoin the

1:24:37

price of Bitcoin goes to the moon the US

1:24:40

is the big beneficiary us companies are

1:24:43

the big

1:24:44

beneficiary and while you're doing that

1:24:47

you uh you normalize and and and support

1:24:52

digital currency and you just Define

1:24:54

digital currency is the US dollar backed

1:24:56

by US dollar equivalence in a regulated

1:24:59

us custodian that's audited what happens

1:25:02

next $150 billion dollar of stable coin

1:25:07

goes to a trillion

1:25:10

248 and probably somewhere between eight

1:25:13

and 16 trillion dollars and you create

1:25:17

six 10 to 20 trillion dollars of demand

1:25:21

for us sovereign debt and so you're like

1:25:24

while you're taking away a little bit of

1:25:26

the demand because the capital asset of

1:25:28

Bitcoin grows you're adding back the

1:25:30

demand to back the stable coin where

1:25:32

ises the where does the digital currency

1:25:35

goes it replaces the CNY the ruble it

1:25:39

replaces every African currency it

1:25:41

replaces every South American currency

1:25:44

it replaces the

1:25:46

Euro I mean if you really if you really

1:25:48

believe in US World Reserve currency and

1:25:52

values every single currency in the

1:25:55

world will actually just merge into the

1:25:58

US dollar if it was freely available

1:26:01

there isn't a stronger currency no there

1:26:03

isn't there's only there's only

1:26:05

currencies pegged to the dollar uh

1:26:08

explicitly like a

1:26:10

drom or the CNY yeah literally pled to

1:26:14

the dollar explicitly then there's

1:26:16

implicitly pegged to the dollar like the

1:26:19

Euro and then there's currencies

1:26:21

collapsing against the

1:26:23

dollar and like you know so what were we

1:26:26

on you know after World War II during

1:26:29

World War I we're on the dollar standard

1:26:31

after World War I the dollar standard

1:26:33

Treaty of Genoa the dollar standard

1:26:35

Bretton Woods the dollar standard that

1:26:38

it's like we're like oh we just

1:26:39

discovered the dollar standard 1971

1:26:41

we've been on the dollar standard since

1:26:44

we financed World War I for the Brits

1:26:46

right and we took over the world

1:26:48

financial System since then you want to

1:26:50

stay on the dollar standard you really

1:26:53

need to release 10 trillion dollar of

1:26:56

digital currency and then you'll be on

1:26:58

the dollar standard but what I just

1:27:01

described basically replaces every

1:27:04

currency in the world with dollar yeah

1:27:07

which the US controls right

1:27:10

and it siphons off hundreds of trillions

1:27:13

of dollars of 20th century Capital

1:27:15

assets and half of the capital in the

1:27:19

rest of the world and most 75% of the

1:27:24

capital of our enemies get siphoned into

1:27:27

Bitcoin and the big beneficiary is the

1:27:30

US government and after that every us

1:27:33

company because we're the ones that own

1:27:34

and run it yeah and so what I'm

1:27:37

describing there you can do for

1:27:40

free snap your fingers all you got to do

1:27:44

is make the observation the goal failed

1:27:47

as a as a money and a monetary Network

1:27:50

in the 16th century for the Spanish like

1:27:53

you're not going to save it yeah and

1:27:55

given the fact it's failed let's just

1:27:57

eliminate the

1:27:58

fiction demonetize it go to digital

1:28:02

gold sell the past own the future easy I

1:28:07

love it very it is I love you described

1:28:09

as Evil Genius almost a couple questions

1:28:12

Michael um have you thought about either

1:28:15

your uh either qualify custodians or in

1:28:18

general if micro strategy would perform

1:28:20

a cryptographic proof of reserves is

1:28:22

there interest in that um because in

1:28:25

addition to being the world's best

1:28:26

settlement Network and best asset it's

1:28:28

also the most trans transparent asset

1:28:31

right you yeah well we're we're

1:28:32

continually

1:28:38

auditing our custodians and we're

1:28:38

continually auditing our reserves and

1:28:42

there's an auditor there's an auditor

1:28:43

backing up the auditor there's a finance

1:28:46

team backing that up and there's another

1:28:48

process backing that up uh the question

1:28:51

of what we disclose is is a more

1:28:54

complicated situation because you know

1:28:57

there there there's certain practices

1:29:00

for a regulated entity in the United

1:29:02

States like like for example right JP

1:29:06

Morgan's not going to disclose to you

1:29:09

where they keep the computers that run

1:29:12

your bank accounts in order to create

1:29:15

transparency and so there are certain

1:29:16

disclosures that would actually be

1:29:18

viewed as more risky for a public

1:29:21

regulated company and there are other

1:29:23

disclos measures where where the people

1:29:26

that we work with wouldn't be allowed to

1:29:28

make them either so that's that's a

1:29:30

balance I what I would say is

1:29:33

that that entire uh best practice is

1:29:37

evolving pretty rapidly at this point

1:29:40

because there's so many eyes on it and

1:29:42

there's a lot of people thinking hard

1:29:44

about it and I think it'll continue to

1:29:46

improve interesting um talk about

1:29:48

Bitcoin development a little bit uh we

1:29:51

had a conversation on the sidelines of

1:29:52

the micro strategy conf conference in

1:29:54

Las Vegas about this there is some

1:29:56

momentum building for an upgrade to

1:29:59

bitcoin I think one of the least

1:30:01

controversial and more widely accepted

1:30:03

one is this op Che template verify gives

1:30:06

you some better um encumbrance tools so

1:30:08

you could do like vaults and like other

1:30:10

types of custody uh do you have thoughts

1:30:13

on on that specifically or in general

1:30:15

Bitcoin upgrade sort of philosophy I'm

1:30:17

very conservative on development I think

1:30:19

we I think we should go forward very

1:30:25

carefully very very carefully with

1:30:28

consensus and think hard um I I feel

1:30:33

like I think I will go on the record I

1:30:35

think the biggest threat to bitcoin is

1:30:38

overfunded

1:30:40

enthusiastic

1:30:41

developers that want to do something

1:30:43

cool that want to make it better and I

1:30:46

actually think if you look at the

1:30:48

history of every Empire and the fall of

1:30:51

every

1:30:52

Empire everyone

1:30:54

Rome Greece they always reach a peak and

1:30:58

they collapse from within because a

1:31:00

bunch of overfunded lawyers write laws

1:31:03

to make things better right and I think

1:31:06

in this particular case the developers

1:31:08

are the lawyers and the code they're

1:31:10

writing are the laws and they kind of

1:31:12

look at it and they're like well I

1:31:14

learned how to write code and I want to

1:31:16

be meaningful I want to make my fame I

1:31:19

want to be famous I want to earn my

1:31:21

fortune I want to make a you know you

1:31:23

could be senor

1:31:24

right and say look they're

1:31:27

lobbyists that want to you know it's

1:31:29

like when a guy shows up in DC and says

1:31:32

I have a new idea to protect the snail

1:31:34

daughter fish and improve the

1:31:36

environment and it cost everybody a

1:31:37

million dollars right they're like well

1:31:40

it seems like they're very

1:31:41

self-interested that's the cynical view

1:31:45

the the you

1:31:47

know what is it the more graceful or or

1:31:52

or the more charitable the more itable

1:31:54

view is they learned how to write code

1:31:57

they want to help and make a

1:31:59

contribution right and the world's full

1:32:01

of you know 20s something 30-some males

1:32:05

with a lot of energy that want to make a

1:32:08

contribution right we we get a lot of

1:32:10

our you know one out of a out of a

1:32:14

thousand ideas is a good idea and 99.9%

1:32:17

of the ideas fail and I don't I don't

1:32:20

think there's that much risk what I

1:32:22

would say is if you have all these good

1:32:25

ideas launch a company risk your own

1:32:28

capital and you know risk your own

1:32:31

credibility there's a 99% chance you'll

1:32:34

fail and there's a 0.1% chance you'll be

1:32:36

an Instagram or a meta or Google and

1:32:40

you'll succeed and then there's a 100%

1:32:43

chance that when you succeed in the

1:32:45

aftermath people will criticize you

1:32:48

right I mean think about the great

1:32:49

successes oh yeah think about think

1:32:51

about what people think about Microsoft

1:32:54

Facebook

1:32:56

Instagram Apple after they've succeeded

1:32:59

right there's always an unintended

1:33:01

Google YouTube there's an unintended

1:33:04

consequence that comes from that great

1:33:08

success and

1:33:10

99.999% of the people that tried to do

1:33:12

that they all failed so my view on this

1:33:16

is it works don't break

1:33:19

it and I I can give you a hundred

1:33:22

examples of how all these all these

1:33:25

ideas go awfully horribly

1:33:28

wrong right and and I think the burden

1:33:30

of proof ought to beond the person if if

1:33:33

someone comes into your life and

1:33:35

proposes they want to forcibly inject

1:33:37

your kids with a 100 vaccines to make

1:33:41

better I mean I think the burden of

1:33:44

proof ought to be on the person that

1:33:45

wants to give you the 100 vaccines and

1:33:48

each one of these ideas including all

1:33:50

the covenants they're all they're all

1:33:53

vaccination

1:33:54

you know upgrades boosters to make us

1:33:57

better just in case in order to deal

1:33:59

with something and I and I got to say

1:34:02

you man the global warming thing you

1:34:05

know a lot of a lot of damage has been

1:34:08

done in favor of grand Ambitions to make

1:34:11

the world a better place so I I think

1:34:14

it's inconsistent with the

1:34:16

community to basically

1:34:20

idealistically charge forward

1:34:23

jamming

1:34:25

upgrades because it might make things

1:34:27

better in the future I really think

1:34:29

that's an ethereum thing I think if you

1:34:31

look at the ethereum road map it's like

1:34:35

never saw a good ey dank Shing you know

1:34:38

something I never saw a good idea I

1:34:40

didn't want to get into the protocol and

1:34:42

I have 10 years of good ideas and I

1:34:45

think I think that's kind of like

1:34:48

forcible mutation that leads to

1:34:52

monstrosity right and and so I think

1:34:55

with Bitcoin we should be very

1:34:57

careful and very thoughtful and it's not

1:35:00

that I can't be convinced sure that

1:35:02

there's that there's something we need

1:35:04

to do but but I'm of the

1:35:06

opinion that we should do things we need

1:35:08

to do and I would say also there's a

1:35:11

political Schism here which is which is

1:35:15

you everybody shows up at the capital

1:35:18

and they want to force their politics

1:35:20

it's like my view is that all human

1:35:22

beings should potentially

1:35:25

starve in order to make sure that we

1:35:28

don't chop down a tree you you know yeah

1:35:33

like there are people that will

1:35:34

basically there are people who believe

1:35:35

that well look if you look at every war

1:35:38

right I mean Napoleon drafted every

1:35:40

18year old in France 15 years in a row

1:35:43

and murdered a third of them because he

1:35:46

thought it was very important to to

1:35:48

spread the code of Napoleon but it

1:35:50

turned out to be not that important to

1:35:52

them right so so the world's full of

1:35:55

people that have an agenda right and

1:35:57

maybe your agenda is you you know you

1:35:59

want Bitcoin to work but you don't want

1:36:02

Banks to use it and you don't want the

1:36:04

government to use it you don't want

1:36:05

corporations to use it so so if your

1:36:08

agenda is is true crypto Anarchist then

1:36:13

you're going to want to drive a certain

1:36:14

set of developments into the

1:36:17

protocol but that actually may result in

1:36:20

the failure of your agenda

1:36:24

and the thing that's going to hundreds

1:36:25

of trillions right right clearly right

1:36:27

now my um my view is Bitcoin without

1:36:32

anybody's

1:36:33

help is going to make it to hundreds of

1:36:36

trillions of

1:36:37

dollars right and provide the economic

1:36:40

capital framework for the world without

1:36:43

anybody's help so you're you know all

1:36:46

you can do is break it yeah you don't

1:36:47

want to mess with at this point right

1:36:49

now and so so every every

1:36:51

proposal by by every actor ought to be

1:36:55

viewed with a with a lens of you know is

1:36:59

this essential and but I don't see

1:37:01

anything essential right now yep right

1:37:04

show me that it's essential to avoid the

1:37:06

failure of the

1:37:08

network right yeah I think I mean that's

1:37:10

a reasonable and conservative approach I

1:37:12

I think I think pursuing functionality

1:37:14

for the sake of functionality in all

1:37:16

these domains unleash it opens up a

1:37:19

Pandora's box of unintended consequences

1:37:22

which could with which likely will

1:37:25

perniciously backfire to the detriment

1:37:28

of everybody uh Michael you were once a

1:37:31

skeptic of Bitcoin and and we just were

1:37:33

about to wrap in a moment but you were

1:37:34

once a skeptic of Bitcoin um you've

1:37:37

obviously come around completely you're

1:37:39

now the best performing stock of the

1:37:41

year uh micro strategy is the largest

1:37:44

holder individual entity holder of

1:37:46

Bitcoin in the world um what would you

1:37:49

say to the Perpetual no coiners who

1:37:53

can't reckon with this the people like

1:37:55

the Peter schiffs who've been bearish on

1:37:57

bitcoin for the entire time or people

1:38:00

that called it a tulip bubble five times

1:38:02

in a row since 2013 do they have Bitcoin

1:38:05

derangement syndrome I would just ignore

1:38:07

them you know again Harvey Harvey

1:38:11

determined that your heart

1:38:13

beats you know and it beats blood out

1:38:16

through the arteries and it comes back

1:38:20

via the vein and when he discovered the

1:38:23

circular system and that was a big

1:38:25

breakthrough because for thousands of

1:38:26

years people didn't know what the heart

1:38:27

did and they didn't believe that and

1:38:29

when he rolled it out the medical

1:38:30

establishment everybody rejected it all

1:38:33

the doctors rejected it even though they

1:38:35

could run a simple experiment to

1:38:36

determine it and he said um no physician

1:38:41

no doctor over the age of 40 will ever

1:38:44

believe me I so there's just no point uh

1:38:48

Max plank said uh science advances one

1:38:52

funeral at a

1:38:54

time and so I really think you've got

1:38:58

you've got three

1:39:01

constituencies uh you've got the the old

1:39:05

guard that is successful traditional set

1:39:08

in their ways and they don't need a new

1:39:10

idea they don't want to hear it they

1:39:13

created their reputation and staked it

1:39:15

based on an old idea they will take it

1:39:17

to their grave you're wasting your time

1:39:20

there's no point you just should ignore

1:39:22

them you've got the new generation the

1:39:25

20s something the 30s

1:39:27

somethings the guy wants to get rich he

1:39:30

wants to get famous he's got nothing he

1:39:32

can't afford a house he wants a yacht he

1:39:34

wants

1:39:35

respect okay everything to gain nothing

1:39:38

to lose right those are the people that

1:39:41

pick up guitars and become lead Zeppelin

1:39:43

or the Beatles right I mean it's always

1:39:46

the Young Generation using the new

1:39:48

technology to make their way in the

1:39:50

world that's uh that's the beauty of

1:39:54

and and that's not hard you don't have

1:39:55

to work that hard to convince them and

1:39:57

then you've got the the the middle

1:40:00

people that are reasonably open-minded

1:40:03

over time initially they'll be

1:40:06

dismissive and then they'll be less

1:40:08

dismissive and then they'll start to

1:40:10

notice and maybe their daughter or their

1:40:13

son will tell them or maybe they'll run

1:40:16

into a crisis a near-death experience

1:40:19

like I did and they'll have to find a

1:40:22

new idea

1:40:24

or maybe uh they'll be persuaded by

1:40:26

someone they respect and then they will

1:40:29

gradually study it and they will flip

1:40:32

right and and I think you're better off

1:40:34

to to focus your time on that middle

1:40:37

group those who don't haven't really

1:40:39

made up their mind or they have

1:40:41

reasonable open minds and maybe they

1:40:43

have a motive like they they have a mo

1:40:46

like how am I going to

1:40:48

10x my value right the the best run

1:40:52

companies in the world that everybody

1:40:54

loves they probably won't switch first

1:40:55

because they have more to lose than they

1:40:57

have to gain right it's the zombie

1:40:59

companies that are forsaken by the

1:41:02

market that no one cares about that are

1:41:04

competing against Microsoft and against

1:41:07

apple or against

1:41:09

Google that are kind of in a hopeless

1:41:12

situation but not dead

1:41:14

yet you're not dead yet MH I have a

1:41:17

solution for you right and I I think

1:41:20

that's that's the ones that you focus on

1:41:23

it makes a lot of sense um Michael

1:41:25

sailor founder and chairman of micro

1:41:28

strategy thank you so much for coming on

1:41:30

Galaxy brins yeah thanks for having me

1:41:33

that's it for this week's episode of

1:41:34

Galaxy brains thank you to Our Guest

1:41:36

Michael sailor chairman and founder of

1:41:38

micro strategy Bim net will be back next

1:41:40

week and we will also see you next week

1:41:43

so have a safe and happy

1:41:51

weekend thanks for listening to Galaxy

1:41:51

brains the weekly podcast from Galaxy

1:41:53

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