Bitcoin’s Seven Layers of Security #1 | The Saylor Series | Episode 14 (WiM056)
WiM Media · 2021-10-05 · 1h 18m · View on YouTube →
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so we we've talked about
bitcoin and how it's dematerializing
these critical security functions
traditionally provided by banks
and or governments
and is doing this through this
proof-of-work security model
but you've laid out this framework that
i think is very brilliant and it's you
know proof-of-work has many layers to it
that i guess you would say these are
protecting it from disruption
um so maybe you could just introduce
that model and we could walk through it
sure you know i've called it the seven
layers of security
but i think um
we should start
excuse me
[Music]
start with a fundamental observation
what we're trying to create with bitcoin
is a digital
property network
something that will last for a thousand
years or 10 000 years how do i create
digital property in cyberspace and we
can call it money if we like digital
monetary network or digital property
network
but
what i want is i want a decentralized
network that will last
past the average life expectancy of a
human being
or an institution
or a nation-state
so
how do i do that
well with um
the beauty of proof-of-work is that
the network derives its integrity
from the interplay
of
the miners and the nodes
and the holders or the wallets if you
will
but with a special emphasis on the
miners
what what what do i define as security
well
you know property needs to be optimized
for integrity and durability over time
integrity meaning
the protocol
the protocol can't be corrupted
right can't mutate if the if the
protocol mutates we go from 21 million
to 48 million
you get a
monstrosity so you don't want a mutation
and then i don't want it to die
so
if i said i want to design an immortal
creature something that'll live for a
million years
uh and i want it to maintain its
integrity
then
i've i've got to protect the protocol
and then i've also got a feed it energy
and resources continually
and i'm just going to call that and i
have to protect it from a hostile attack
in the near term
sometimes when we think about security
we think about just
avoiding an attack but really security
is
you can't attack in the near term
we don't want it to die
and and most importantly
if you live
but you go insane
or you or you get a grotesque mutation
then did you really live so how am i
going to achieve
my quest for immortality
in a network
right and and the beauty of proof of
work
is
it is an open protocol
that is darwinian
and and competitive
in a way such that it is not just
self-correcting on the on the protocol
level to ensure correct money
but it's also self-healing
and uh and it's adaptive
to the environment around it
so i went i like to call these the seven
layers of security so what do you have
you have an energy layer
a technology layer
a political layer a financial layer a
network layer a spatial layer and a
temporal layer of energy those seven
seven various dimensions
so let's start with uh the first
dimension of security energy
well i
i have a hash rate
say we've got about a hundred extra hash
right now
well i have to feed it energy in order
to create the 100 extra hash
bitcoin
uh is a big customer of energy
so in fact it turns out the bitcoin is
the most valuable
use of of energy or maybe the most
valuable
most compelling industrial customer of
energy in the world right now
you can generate about 40 cents a
kilowatt hour in revenue
uh mining bitcoin
so
that makes it um
interesting because that co-ops all the
energy industry
so one way that bitcoin spreads and
stays
organically vital
is
it forms partnerships with the energy
industry
if you have a volcano in the middle of
uh central america
the value of that energy sold within 500
miles of you is like one penny
a kilowatt hour
unless you sell it to bitcoin
and it's 40 cents kilohertz
so bitcoin is the best customer for your
volcano it's the bitcoin is a customer
of stranded energy
intermittent energy
uh energy on any frequency
and energy at any scale
and you don't need to be co-located with
the cust with an industrial customer or
a consumer
um
and you don't need bandwidth
so for example um
what's the second best you know use of
energy maybe like running netflix or
google data center
but if you want to run a google data
center
you need to be within
you need to be within a fiber optic
distance of the major switching networks
because you're streaming video and
streaming
a lot of
high bandwidth queries
so they're bandwidth intensive
and they need to be triple redundant
because they need to be uh they can't
fail if you're if you're trying to
operate a car with google maps
you can't afford to have an outage in
the network
so
bitcoin miners
are are so much better than a typical
data center because
you could monetize the entire volcano or
you could monetize the entire waterfall
or the entire nuclear reactor the full
bandwidth of it
you could do it at a north pole
you can do it with a satellite uplink
and you can monetize intermittent energy
coming off of wind or wave or
solar and you can also shut it down in a
heartbeat
with fairly low economic costs so
so that makes bitcoin
the most compelling
technology
for the energy industry that's come
along this decade maybe in a long time
the last big energy technology was
aluminum when people would use
their excess aluminum to or sorry their
excess energy to smelt aluminum
well bitcoin bitcoin rebuilt up and in
spades
to do bitcoin mining you don't need a
port to ship aluminum in and out of
you don't need an aluminum factory which
is difficult and you don't need aluminum
ore
and you also don't need the industrial
demand for aluminum
which eventually saturates aluminum is a
specialty metal
right
so
what is bitcoin bitcoin is money okay so
so half of everything that the human
race has is bitcoin
or will be bitcoin in time so bitcoin
mining is is securing and producing
something which is of enormous value
on a very thin line
based upon any flavor and frequency
of energy
and there's really nothing like that
why does that make the network secure
well
bitcoin miners um are continually
looking for new energy sources and
they're negotiating for cheap energy and
when they buy it they become a big
customer
so
as they become customers of energy
producers everywhere in the world
the energy producers
uh become political allies of bitcoin
[Music]
so the energy producers are all
regulated entities but they're all very
credible and they're all and they all
are wired in the political fabric of
every society
so
if you are if you are the best customer
of the utility in the city or the state
or the country then that utility has a
vested interest in protecting your
interest
so
bitcoin co-ops energy companies and also
bitcoin is hope
for a utility if you're a
value stock
100 year old utility company
you're not getting a high multiple in in
the stock market
there's not a lot of excitement in fact
you're regulated and there are limits on
how much money you can make
by selling your energy to consumers or
to businesses you know if if the power
company in new york city just jacked the
price of energy by a factor of three
they would get shut down by their
regulators
on the other hand
uh if you get in the bitcoin mining
business
right
you don't have those those kind of
regulations on you so so bitcoin is is a
chance for
energy companies to become technology
companies
and it solves so many of their problems
um i can generate more
revenue check i can generate i can
generate revenue at much higher
price per kilowatt hour it's a very high
price
customer the value and use of
electricity for bitcoin miner is higher
than any other customer they have so
that's good check
it's portable
and uh so that means every place i've
got stranded energy production
facilities i can move the bitcoin mine
to the energy check that's interesting
it's a it's an energy shock absorber
if i have um
a renewable energy network
say with wind and solar
what i want to do is i want to build it
to the level of peak demand but if i
build at the level of peak demand i will
over build it by a factor of two or more
and that means i'll be running a 50
utilization
for my consumer and other industrial
customers
so how am i going to find a customer
that's willing to actually take up half
of my energy production
and then turn off
for 10 hours a year or 20 hours a year
when there's a brownout without
complaining
right the hospital is not going to do
that yeah yeah yeah homes aren't going
to do that
so
i need some kind of industrial producer
that becomes a shock absorber
they're going to drive up my utilization
in 98
and then when i brown out they're going
to turn off and give back energy to the
network
so
bitcoin represents a
a
a driver for the development of
sustainable and renewable energy
it also represents
a um a technology to provide more
reliability and fault tolerance to a
power grid
right
and um
you know if you think about the role of
capacitors or batteries or shock
absorbers
in in electrical machines or mechanical
machines yeah
that's what bitcoin is for
a power network right right right
let me ask you so
you describe money as
energy socio-political energy um
and so in that framework i guess we
could consider banks historically where
they were actually providing custody of
gold
they were kind of like
energy stores in a way right we're
storing this excess productive economic
energy in gold that banks were
custodying for us
and now with bitcoin we have this more
direct path to monetizing energy
and so what i think about here is
there's kind of this interesting
um thing where you know you've heard of
a power bank like these little devices
that will charge your phone or whatever
it stores energy so it's like banks and
power banks do you see
the energy
users
and banks somehow converging because it
seems like you kind of on a bitcoin
standard you eliminate the need for a
custodial bank
they become kind of synonymous with
energy producers do you see those
industries coming together in the future
well i mean i
i think once you understand
that a bank
is storing monetary energy
then you've got a bank of batteries the
storing electrical energy
and then bitcoin is sitting in the
middle it's encrypting the energy from
electrical energy
into monetary energy
and so
in one hand it's upgrading the raw
the raw physical energy
through the encryption process
and then on the other hand
it's uh it's digitally transforming
analog fiat energy
into encrypted money
digital money
and um
[Music]
that makes bitcoin a bank
an energy bank a monetary bank
it makes it the the world's greatest
battery
right i mean you could you could look at
it from two angles right banks are
bleeding off one percent of your energy
a month you know due to inflation
batteries are bleeding off one percent
of your electrical energy a month
just due to battery
you know engineering
you've got two you've got two
inefficient energy systems
batteries and power grids don't work
that well
and fiat banks and monetary grades don't
work that well
and bitcoin plus lightning
gives you
a battery to store all the world's
energy forever without power loss
and the other day i sent a thousand sats
on the lightning network and in one
second for one set
so you know literally you've got speed
of light
nearly
you know what is the cost of one set
right if it's such an infinitesimally
small number a fraction of a fraction of
a penny yeah if that
so bitcoin's a very efficient
energy system
um
i think that the significance here is
that bitcoin is just is disruptive
technology for the entire energy market
and it's co-opting the energy producers
and energy investors
into bitcoin
what you see right now is you see a lot
of um
you see a lot of
traditional power companies that used to
be in the energy business they're
getting into bitcoin mining
people with natural gas people in the
nuclear in
industry people in the wind and solar
industry
they're getting into bitcoin mining or
they're partnering with bitcoin mines
so bitcoin recruited
energy capital
and bitcoin secures the network with
hundreds and hundreds of of producers of
energy are plugged in the bitcoin
network
creating that hash wall
so that's the first layer of security
for bitcoin
and if you're going to attack it
you know it's no small feat
to go and and collect that much energy
you almost can't you can you're not
going to collect twice as much energy or
as much energy as is currently in the
bitcoin mining network
politically economically practically i
just don't know how you would do it
right right right very very problematic
so that
and there's no shortcut right
in that regard
there's uh there's an energy wall
and uh you have to jump over it
and uh and it's a lot you know at the
point where you're talking about 100
terawatt hours of energy or something
it's a lot of energy
so that the second layer though is
technology and this i don't think people
really understand that well and when i
talk about technology i'm referring to
the to bitcoin asic miners
you know
bitcoin is a wall of encrypted energy so
the energy is the first part but the
encrypting the encryption the crypto is
the second part the crypto wall of
energy it's not raw energy
if it was raw energy you just need a
hundred terawatt hours to start to get
parity
but when it's encrypted energy
i need i need uh 100 exahash of shaw 256
mining equipment
and since it's like 10 000
miners
right to get to an extra hash right now
okay then that's a hun that's a million
a million mining rigs
of the latest build
how do you come up with a million mining
rigs
you know it's like it's not no one's got
a million mining rigs sitting around i
mean it's not clear how long it would
take to manufacture a million mining
rigs right
bitcoins co-opting technology companies
so bit you know bit main is a big player
but but there are other big players too
and and as bitcoin gets larger i think
you'll see the intel's of the world and
you'll see you know you'll see other
semiconductor companies
designing bitcoin mining rigs and
getting into space
and and um
this is another example where this is
open and competitive
you know who wants it the most
whoever wants it and what capital you
need this is semiconductor fabrication
capital you have to fabricate these a6
the s19 family is five times more
efficient than the s9s
so if you wanted to generate an exah
on the s9 family it took 150 megawatts
of power
that's a lot of power
if you wanted to do it with s19s it's 30
megawatts of power
a 5x difference in a generation
if you get through two or two
generations every 10 years or three
right you know you're talking about 20x
improvement
i mean we're we're 100x more technically
efficient today than we were eight years
ago where will we be in 10 more years
we go back and forth right there's all
sorts of people with opinions there's
moore's law some people think that asic
basic technology efficiency will slow
down but then again people been
predicting
that we would hit a wall in moore's law
for a while and they're still not quite
right
when you when you understand the bitcoin
network what you can think is that the
bitcoin mining network 10 years ago
was very energy intensive and technology
poor
there's a time when you were just using
off-the-shelf chips and then you were
using gpus
and then you were using asic first
generation and then asic next generation
so we're like five generations into this
now
in the early time frame you through
think about it you throw a probably a
thousand times if not a million times as
much energy to generate a hash
right
and now you're throwing 30 megawatts to
generate an extra hash
but we'll get to the next generation
will be five megawatts and then what
happens when we get to one megawatt
well so as you go out
energy is still important
but it turns out the tech that the
network is rotating from energy
intensive security
to technology intensive security right
right
like what it what if you imagine one day
there will be 10 million mining rigs but
they'll be seventh generation asics and
they will be a hundred times more
efficient than anything we have today
what that means is that 99 of the hash
power will come from that generation of
mining rigs
which means that all this stuff that we
have today
becomes one percent of the network right
yep
which means it gets squeezed out of the
ecosystem right all those miners that
are obsolete go out of business
and so that technology
intensity has a couple of dynamics one
one is that's what keeps the network
from consuming all the energy in the
world
right i mean people say silly things
like oh well the energy usage is going
to increase with the price well no it's
not
the energy usage maybe will increase
with the log of the price
that is if the price goes up by a factor
of 10 energy usage might go up by a
factor of two
and if price goes up by a factor of a
hundred energy uses might go up by a
factor of three or four
but what you've got is a situation where
the halvings are cutting the block
reward in half every four years
so that's a built-in
you know a built-in uh 5x improvement in
efficiency every decade
and then if you crank over that another
10x
improvement in hardware
you're talking about a 50 times
improvement in tech efficiency in a
decade
or 50 times 50
in 20 years
right so the price has got to go way up
and even so what you've got is a
rotation the network is rotating from
i burn a lot of energy to generate my
hashes do i burn less energy to i burn
less energy to generate more hashes
it's not hard to see this right it's
it's in your iphone your iphone has more
processing power than the space shuttle
had yeah 40 years right right you've got
a
cooper computer in your pocket
so
you got to assume
that the security chips that generate
the hashes just keep getting better
and because bitcoin is unique in the
protocol
all of the other processing power is
irrelevant right bitcoin is a darwinian
competition
to um to generate
shaw 256 hashes
it's 95
dominant in that game right now right i
mean
there's a few other crypto networks that
use that but they're like one or two
percent yeah
so that's that
uniqueness with regard to the
proof-of-work protocol
protects it
from an attack from all of the aws
network or all the google network or if
if everybody turned their iphones at
bitcoin mining it wouldn't help them
that much right yeah
[Music]
so is the common
the theme here between the energy layer
of security and the technology layer of
security
is that bitcoin you said bitcoin's
essentially co-opting these industries
so it's incentivizing
[Music]
um it's a source of demand for energy
that's basically unquenchable
and it's a source of demand for
semiconductors
for specialized mining semiconductors
specialized
mining so much markets
yeah people think well 50 60 of the
miners cost is going to energy
well actually the miners are spending
money on energy and they're spending
money on
semiconductor mining rigs yeah and then
they're spending money on the mining
centers themselves the heat sink the
heat engineer and the generators and
right like
so there's a competition and the
question is are you better off having
inefficient miners and more and cheap
power are you better off having
efficient miners and expensive power
right and do they coexist that was my
next question is do the so that the
new generation miners go to the more
expensive energy sources and then the
older generations roll off to cheaper
energy sources
and they both operate well you've got
like three generations of miners right
like people are running old inefficient
miners in china on free power
and then there and then in the us and
north america publicly traded miners are
buying
the latest generation expensive miners
because
their power is more expensive but they
have more capital
if i have 500 million in capital
like uh
spend 60 million dollars by 10 000 s 19s
mine one exahash on 30 megawatts and
make 120 million dollars a year
good deal probably good deal right
so in that case
you would rather you would rather buy
the better equipment and i think you'll
find at any given time there's like two
to there's three generations of mining
equipment
when the price goes high if you look at
the hash rate of the network back in um
the first quarter
there was a point when the hash rate got
to like
190 or something
and i thought the peak was 170 but there
was a surge up by about 10 or 15 exahash
and i posit that that surge was because
people turned on third generation
mining equipment like like the oldest
least efficient stuff and it
you there's a way there's a relationship
an s19 is generating
40 cents a kilowatt hour right now
ergo it is profitable to buy in
electricity up to 39 cents kilowatt hour
and s9
was five times more inefficient so
s9s were profitable at eight cents a
kilowatt hour
but if you go back one generation before
that if you're if you're five times less
efficient than that you're profitable at
one and a half cents
a kilowatt hour so the break-even point
is a function of the semiconductor yeah
or the joules per terahash right right
and that's a technology driver it's not
an energy driver yeah and and most of
the people that model bitcoin mining
they don't really focus upon the
technical efficiency of the miners
and by miner i don't just mean the one
mining rig i just mean the mining
operator that has a mixture of first
generation second generation third
generation equipment yeah
the price you know and you may turn off
like if the price of bitcoin went to uh
five thousand dollars a coin right now
people would probably turn off the old
mining equipment
if they had to unless the energy was
free
right
you can bootleg bitcoin on free energy
if you're steering the energy but if the
energy costs three cents a kilowatt hour
you're going to you're going to turn off
your old equipment you're going to keep
the new equipment running
and that's a that's an adaptive
correcting system itself when the price
goes up you're going to turn on the old
equipment
yep
and over time though these are these are
transient phenomenon
because the more important phenomena to
focus on is that over a decade
the technical efficiency of the mining
network is going to increase by a factor
of
20 to 100.
depending upon the rate at which people
upgrade the semiconductors and
you know there are a lot of ways you can
enter into the network and you can
disrupt equilibrium
one way is as a nation state you can
start mining off of a volcano
the other way is is you can design a
totally new family of asics
so you know
maybe intel or apple wants to get into
space they could disrupt it
a big energy producer could disrupt it
right now the limiting factor is the
number of mining rigs you get your hands
on that's good
right um that crates
that creates some um predictability to
it yeah
and uh that keeps that keeps us from
going chaotic
so
if you look at these two layers of
security right the energy layer is
co-opting energy providers all around
the world and the technology
dimension is co-opting semiconductor
manufacturers
and if one of them like bitmain gets too
much power
you know jeff bezos uh famous line
your margin is my opportunity
right yeah
right so if uh if one company gets too
much power then
well this is not terribly complicated
engineering i mean
you know it's well understood how to
design shaw 256 a6 there's a capitalism
difficult to adjust
yeah yeah and
there are a lot of companies like
qualcomm intel
when they get squeezed they need a new
market
this is a new market for them at the
price you know
as the price goes up and and the
interesting thing of course is if
there's um if there's only one provider
of shaw 256 miners bit main
doesn't that create an artificial
scarcity to uh hash rate
and if it if there is a scarcity to hash
rate doesn't the price go you know the
profitability of bitcoin miners goes up
right
you know and so if the profitability of
bitcoin miners goes up then don't more
people want to get in the business and
if more people want to get in the
business don't they need to buy bitcoin
mining rigs and if they need to buy it
and there's infinite money don't they go
and find someone else to
break that monopoly
right
so
so energy and technology are are a key
part of the equation
but they're not the only part of the
equation because
if i want to generate hashes i have to
set up a bitcoin mining facility
there's physical nexus i have to do it
in iceland or el salvador
or canada or texas
and i you know you
you could probably run
your stake validator on a secret machine
in your basement
but you can't run a you know 150
megawatt facility on a secret
license you need the support of the
mayor the county
the governor
you know you could look at this as a
negative it isn't it's a positive
what it means is that bitcoin miners are
knocking on doors
everywhere in the universe and they're
looking for supported political
jurisdictions
you know if new york city doesn't want
to mine bitcoin maybe texas does
maybe florida does maybe wyoming does
right and so if china doesn't well then
maybe kazakhstan does
in fact the more irrational one country
is the more
appealing bitcoin mining is to the
others right
when china actually cracked down on
bitcoin mining the revenues of bitcoin
miners doubled the profits
quadrupled
and the incentive to get in the mining
business
jumped
and uh so
what you have is an interesting dynamic
where bitcoin miners partner with energy
companies and they partner with
technology companies but they also
partner with political jurisdictions and
politicians
and this is an interesting situation too
because this is so darwinian um what
happens if you're a bitcoin miner and
you set up a billion dollar bitcoin
mining rig in new york city and then his
new mayor and he outlaws bitcoin money
what happens to your capital
and because they have skin in the game
that means that they have to do their
due diligence and they've got a long
time horizon
a person that's mining bitcoin
is um is looking out five years looking
out to you kind of want to be in a
jurisdiction where you think that a
decade from now you'll still be able to
mine bitcoin
and so
it forces you uh to be more thoughtful
you know and the next step is well i
just invested hundreds of millions of
dollars in this county i guess i'd
probably better contribute to the county
election and get the county the mayor
elected right
right
you put down roots
because you have a vested interest
because you have something to lose
so the bitcoin mining network actually
becomes
a political lobbying network for bitcoin
um
interesting
and then every politician that has a
bitcoin mine has tax revenue
has you know when new york wanted to
ban bitcoin mining
that was blocked by a politician
because the politician got a letter from
the union
and the union said
you know we're going to lose jobs
so all the money
all the money that flows into creating
mining centers
creates jobs creates tax revenue
supports politicians
you know creates massive revenues for
engineering companies for uh for real
estate companies for landlords you know
et cetera it's good for the local
economy bitcoin brings prosperity
anywhere on earth
you know you might be a limousine
liberal in the upper east side and not
like the use of electricity
you know on the other hand but if you're
living in the middle of central africa
and you have evol if you have a volcano
or you have a waterfall you know and 90
of your population is living below the
poverty level and there is no industry
and someone shows up and offers to like
give you billions of dollars if they can
attach a windmill
to your waterfall right or turbine to
your waterfall how do you feel about
situation yeah
yeah it's it's incentivizing
everyone to interact with it
in a way that you know contributes to
and i would argue ultimately ensures its
success that that's the key that's the
thing is so hard to get your head around
here is like it's not even
it's not something that's being imposed
it's really just it's a game theory
that's turned on people so people in a
way have become a core component
of the bitcoin system it's like we you
know at every level we're incentivized
to
help it proliferate
100 megawatts is worth 300 million
dollars a year
netflix is not going to show up in el
salvador and offer them 300 million
dollars a year in order to run a data
center plugged into a volcano right
google is not going to show up in zambia
central africa and offer them 300
million dollars a year to run a google
data center
it's not going to happen
so what you have is bitcoin is hope for
energy
it is hope for your semiconductor
company it is hope for your political
jurisdiction
it solves a problem
and because it can go anywhere
right it can go anywhere on earth with a
satellite uplink
it's uh probably a more compelling
solution to someone that has natural
resources in a poor country
even than in a wealthy country
and what you end up with
is a
a self-distributing dynamically
distributing bitcoin mining network
and it is solved for the problem
where do i find the cheapest energy in a
politically supportive jurisdiction
that's the problem you're solving for
that's not the same as the cheapest
energy
it has to be it has to be cheap energy
from an energy provider you trust in a
political jurisdiction you trust
okay what's the answer well the answer
is a dynamic equilibrium right it's
changing every single
week right yeah
you know it was different three years
ago three years ago there was free
electricity in provinces that had empty
you know excess coal
electricity capacity in china
and so you could get
effectively free energy
okay it was free but it wasn't
politically stable
now you can go to a politically stable
place like texas and pay three cents or
maybe you can get it for one penny in
kazakhstan
you know or maybe you can go some other
random place you could go to cuba or you
could get a bootleg thing in the jungle
from some warlord yeah for how long
but
while the big
the bitcoin mining network is
continually distributing itself
and it's organic it's just like asking
the question when we settle around the
around the earth where should we settle
that we will be able to make a living
and we won't suffer from famine
or tornado
and the answer is you don't know
i mean until you've lived 100 years you
don't know that place floods yeah
what's the likelihood of an earthquake
in your favorite place well
you'll find out so what happens well the
network distributes itself
some people make good choices some
people make unwise choices you know this
is back to anti-fragile or the like you
make really awful choices you'll
probably be put out of business within
36 months
if you make okay choices you might last
three to ten years
and then maybe there are other choices
where you'll be good for a hundred years
but maybe you're better off to go to the
place where you're good for six years
where the energy is one penny instead of
the place where you're good for a
hundred years where the energy is five
pennies
and maybe we could debate it
and maybe you have an opinion we can
argue to the cows come home but what
does it matter
it's better it's better just to release
the entire um
the entire creature
let the entire world work in a darwinian
adam smith
you know evolutionary fashion a
competitive way and um
often
you know the lesson of the markets is
there the market is smarter than anybody
yes
you know you know every time i think
about what i knew half the time i
thought i knew it and i was wrong and
sometimes i was right but
the market generally outsmarts the
smartest person
so bitcoin mining
is a dynamic market in security and it's
shopping
it's balancing energy
versus technology versus uh political
support
and that takes us to the fourth layer of
security which is you know go ahead you
got a question yeah let me ask you one
question about that so
it is shopping all of these dimensions
but it's also stabilizing them and i
wonder does that apply to politics as
well because it seems like
yeah this industry is a shock absorber
right it is stabilizing it's a political
shock absorber and it's an energy shock
absorber
if you have um if you have a political
regime and you've got natural resources
but you your economy is is tanked yeah
bitcoin comes in
on one hand the bitcoin miner can
generate 500 million dollars a year in
revenue okay
on the other hand the bitcoin miner can
say we're not coming unless we actually
feel this is a stable regime to operate
in right
so maybe
you know how
there's that phrase like uh you know oh
i got married and my wife made me want
to be a better man
i was like okay well if you if you get
married you can't you have to give up
some of your bachelor ways
right
and if you have a child
you have to be even more responsible
so
the commitment
to a family is stabilizing
because you're thinking you know i just
i can't
you know do the crazy things i did when
i had no other responsibilities
if you actually don't have any industry
you have nothing to lose
and so a country that has a bitcoin mine
has something to gain and something to
lose and if you were to actually then
seize the bitcoin mine
right
no the bitcoin miners are coming to you
right right
it's the same as seizing the bitcoin
right if you make bitcoin illegal in
your country and you make mining illegal
then you lose all that but if you make
bitcoin legal or welcome and you make
mining welcome you gain something and
then if you're rational you might
remember that your prosperity came from
the new job you have
and that way you don't want to lose the
job right
if you're if you're jobless and homeless
well first of all there's nothing to
lose and then
you know if someone puts a 37 revolver
in front of you maybe that's more
appealing to use that
right if i if i have nothing i might be
more akin to violence or more more prone
to violence
and if i if i have
you know why do people why do people
resent resort to violence maybe because
it's hopeless
if i feel like things are hopeless i
either kill myself or i kill somebody
else
bitcoin is hope
yeah
and so yeah it is politically
stabilizing
because it's it's a way out for someone
that can't find another way out
and once you adopt bitcoin
you see something that worked and you
have something to lose and you're part
of
you're part of the multinational bitcoin
network and that is civilizing yeah
in its own special way because
after the mining it draws you into
bitcoin holding and then bitcoin banking
and then bitcoin commerce and bitcoin
philosophy and
and the like right so this i mean the
bitcoin mining
i guess we could see in a broader scope
that digital technology is already
changing the distribution of populations
thanks to remote work and things like
this but bitcoin mining itself sounds
like it could have a pretty significant
impact on where people live you know
you're gonna kind of migrate to these
cheaper energy sources and
set up a politically stable environment
and get to work
yeah bitcoin mining lets you create
an oasis of prosperity
around a standard a stranded energy
source
if you have stranded raw materials
whatever the energy is yeah
you can drop the miner on top of it and
then you can create
prosperity
because
it'll monetize any flavor of energy any
frequency of energy with no bandwidth
and and
minimal infrastructure
around it
all right guys that was episode 14 of
the sailor series
and
this episode we start to dive into a new
framework that sailors laid out
which causes seven layers of proof of
work security
and i think the easiest way
to start this is with a visualization
actually so
sailor's describing a monetary network
in bitcoin
that
self
uh constructs these layers around it and
each layer um
is a point of resistance to disruption i
think is the big key key point here
um and this is somewhat akin to
network effects i think you know i've
talked about this before that
the more
participants there are to a particular
network which is to say the more sides
there are to a marketplace
the more resistant it is to disruption
so the classic example of a one-sided
marketplace
is facebook disrupting myspace right the
facebook provided a superior value
proposition to one cohort of users which
just are the users of the network
and in doing so was able to disrupt
myspace
however when you look at a marketplace
that has more than one cohort cohort of
user
something like craigslist or ebay where
they have buyers and sellers
these two-sided networks tend to be more
difficult to disrupt because you have to
you have to
provide a superior value proposition for
both buyers and sellers simultaneously
otherwise no one moves so this is
somewhat akin to that um but i think the
way
sailor puts us together it's almost like
this set of concentric spheres i guess
surrounding bitcoin and each sphere
is protecting it in its own unique way
kind of uh
insulating the integrity of its
marketplace based on the incentives
related to bitcoin in a specific way
and that the net outcome of this is
these seven interlocking spheres that
really protect bitcoin from disruption
and nurture the growth of its network so
this might sound a bit abstract right
now but as we as we go into it i think
it'll become a little more concretized
um
and the other general theme here i'd
like you to think about as we start to
go through this is that it is the
persistence
of bitcoin so the actual persistence of
its network up time let's say or it's
its availability to sell energy into the
network or to move energy
um through the monetary network
and the certainty that it's affording
market actors right again hard cap of 21
million
can be confiscated inflated stopped
interrupted
um that is actually
in my opinion in my view
forcing
humans to reorganize themselves around
this network so in a very
broad sense we could say that
all of the variation in human affairs
uh and this gets back to something i
discussed earlier it
tends to coalesce around the invariance
you know sailor gave the example of
gravity previously
uh through the socioeconomic lens we
could say gold was this socio-economic
invariant historically that caused
market actors to voluntarily adopt it
and use it
as an apolitical store of value
and bitcoin has just taken that
principle of certainty and persistency
in a monetary network to a radically new
level so that's another way to think
about this
is that uh almost like a stone thrown
into a pond but the stone
representing certainty itself and it's
just propagating out into this into the
field of human action and changing the
way everyone does business right and
it's not like something you can ignore
necessarily
um
it's something that is so
so fundamental that if you
choose to trade which is to say you
choose to participate in the economy
which is to be anything less than purely
self-sufficient which is pretty much
everyone and you want to optimize for
wealth preservation over time
which is pretty much anyone i don't
think anyone prefers poverty um to
riches
then you have to pay attention to
bitcoin like you you get
sucked into its network
over time
and i think this model that sailor has
provided
in seven layers of proof-of-work
security
really peels back the layers so to speak
on this dynamic
and gives them a very specific
mechanical description of how they work
so
the first layer and we only got into
three layers in this episode and then
next episode we'll get into uh the last
four so the first layer
sailor went into
is the energy layer
and this is very important and profound
that
in bitcoin mining
for the first time in human history we
have this
perpetual energy buyer
worldwide
right so anywhere there is a stranded or
underutilized energy source
it can now be alchemized into digital
gold if you will right you can literally
bring a bitcoin miner on site
uh they're very low
bandwidth requirements it just need
needs to be able to generate
uh
hashes to basically participate in the
mining
algorithm
and it can be used it can turn this
excess or stranded energy that otherwise
couldn't be ported
uh well let's say
that otherwise it was uneconomical to
port this energy elsewhere due to its
its geographic location
can now be used
to
directly monetize that energy which say
just turn that energy into money
and the other big piece here is that if
energy is intermittent
right which is say it's uh the
production of it is volatile like with
wind or solar
um
bitcoin mining acts as kind of a buffer
for these variable supply energy sources
so if there's a a huge surge in
production and some laxity and demand it
could be you could switch that to uh
bitcoin mining
and you could very quickly
switch back as grid demand changes
um so it's to say that
bitcoin mining works really well with
these interruptable
loads uh in high variation loads and
remote loads so
it's kind of like uh and this is an
example he uses later on that it is
providing this shock absorber
quality where it's actually buffering
the different systems against
uh volatility they would otherwise
experience
and you know the so the analog
example here is aluminum box site
uh and i think this was being done in
honestly it was greenland or iceland i
forget which one but they effectively
had
uh this surplus of i think it was
geothermal energy but they had no good
way to export it
and
what they would do instead was uh they
would import
aluminum and actually smelt it which is
a very energy intensive operation
and then they would smelt it with the
local energy and then export the uh
aluminum box site i think was the final
product uh two countries that had demand
for aluminum oxide so what this
this was an analog example of monetizing
stranded energy sources like the
stranded geothermal energy
that for
certain economic reasons couldn't be
transported across power lines easily or
cheaply
could now be aimed at the production of
a hard commodity
that could then be shipped anywhere
worldwide so the aluminum effectively
was serving as an energy battery and
this is a pretty popular example you've
probably heard this one before
the problem of course is that
it was very inefficient overall in that
not only are you mining the aluminum in
one place
shipping it to uh the place with
stranded energy with again icelander
greenland and then they're smelting it
so they're actually adding
the energy as a value input to this
commodity and then shipping it elsewhere
so it was kind of mired in these
logistical costs and transformation
costs in such a way that it didn't
convert the energy into money
at a high
with a high coefficient let's say
so in bitcoin
we have something that requires less
transformations like every time you're
either loading something up to put it
you know to ship it logistically or uh
incurring a transaction cost you're
basically mitigating the efficiency
of monetizing this energy so with
bitcoin we have something that minimizes
these uh these intermediate steps and
allows energy producers anywhere in the
world to essentially directly monetize
their energy sources
and this is
so it has a historical analog so we can
say some things about it
uh but we it is different in that it
it's now being monetized into this
absolutely scarce
token called bitcoin that can be
transported globally 24x7 365
you have final settlement within an hour
you know in theory you could
use a stranded energy to create bitcoin
in one area beam the bitcoin to another
area and use it to buy local energy in a
completely
uh
discontinuous jurisdiction on the other
side of the planet
so it enables
this very low friction
way of
transmitting energy across space and
time so
um
and we have to be careful of the analogy
here and i'll push it too far
but many have said i think sailor
included that bitcoin functions is
somewhat like an energy battery or a
monetary battery
and it's the first battery that's not
there's no leakage effectively you know
we have slight impedance when we move
across the network in terms of
transaction fees but we know with
absolute certainty there's no unexpected
inflation so there's no leakage unlike
something like fiat currency where
there's just tremendous amounts of
leakage
or even gold where it's
it's low
say two percent a year but it's still
persistent and continuous over time
um
where we have to be careful the analogy
is that it's a one-way battery or like a
right only battery we can put energy
we can allocate energy into the
production of bitcoin
but you can't shoot the bitcoin
somewhere else in the world where
there's no energy and turn it back into
energy in the local environment there
needs to be a local energy market to
turn your bitcoin back into energy if
that makes sense
um
so i think that's a very useful analogy
and powerful way to look at it um
hopefully you know other energy
producers in the world
i think they're slowly awakening to this
but it's still
at the fringes to such an extent that
people haven't really come to see the
true implications of what this is going
to do to energy markets worldwide
um
and one of the great points there's a
lot of implications but one that sailor
brought up i had not thought of before
was that energy producers
becoming
customers of bitcoin mining so they're
selling their energy to bitcoin miners
this is now converting them
into political allies
all right uh here in the u.s we have we
have both regulated and unregulated
energy markets with some of the
regulated
utilities i mean these are very large
companies you know multi-billion dollar
companies
very conservative very old school
um but as they become customers to
bitcoin mining
i think these industries that have very
deep roots um you know it's very
localized right depending on the type of
energy that's being produced but
typically you know oil gas solar
geothermal hydro like these are all
relatively fixed assets let's say so
they're very tied into the local
political
framework because clearly energy is an
indispensable commodity it's like the
ultimate commodity in a way
and so as they become customers of
bitcoin mining they're going to be
learning more about this
uh you know where your money goes your
mind follows so to speak
and
by virtue of their participation in this
marketplace they will become political
allies
that you know lobby on behalf of bitcoin
call their local regulator to get rules
in place that are favorable to their
long-term capital interest
et cetera so i thought that was
a really important aspect
um
through which to look at bitcoin and
that this energy layer
it's not just about
thermodynamics and technology and money
there's also this political element to
it
which is another layer that we actually
revisit um here towards the end of this
episode so
the second layer that sailor brings up
is technology
and
you know everyone knows
energy goes into the bitcoin network to
secure it right this is the the skin in
the game of miners effectively that
underpins this darwinian or capitalistic
competition
among miners to
obtain transaction fees block subsidies
and participate in network security so
this is like
this optimal alignment of incentives
that satoshi created that really makes
bitcoin bitcoin you know
um
and what sailor brings up a great point
here that
we all know energy is very important to
the network but what's less obvious is
that over time as bitcoin grows
it's actually the network is rotating
away from energy intensity
say an energy intensive security model
and towards
a technology intensive security model
and this is something i had not thought
about previously either there's this
shift almost occurring so if we think
very early days of bitcoin
people are just mining it on their
computers
uh there's no specialized
semiconductors at this point it was just
you know whatever computational hardware
you had
was pretty much competitive in bitcoin
mining very early days
so it was
mostly a matter of
electricity getting low-cost electricity
such that you could keep your operating
expenses below
the market value of the bitcoin produce
your operating revenues
so we could say in the earliest days of
bitcoin it was almost purely energy
intensive
however as
the asics and semiconductors become more
specialized which would say they become
more narrowly focused
and functionally designed for mining
bitcoin
at the expense of everything else these
are kind of single purpose units uh that
that
accumulation of hardware
actually starts to represent
more of the energy intensity overall of
mining so another way to think about
this is that
there's a shift occurring from kind of
dynamic energy to static energy
and we could say that the semiconductors
themselves are effectively a form of
frozen energy right this is capital it's
been
uh it was an energy process energy
intensive process to produce them to
ship them to get them
uh
into position plugged in and uh
producing hashes right so they say is
which is to say competing in the bitcoin
mining network in a way that they are
profitable
um
but this has effectively
we've we're now capitalizing this energy
cost into these semiconductors
so the technology itself the hardware is
becoming more important
more of a security layer than the energy
expense itself over time as the bitcoin
network proliferates
um
and a lot of this has to do with that
ratio right where
again these asics are producing hashes
more efficiently so you're getting more
hashes
per energy expenditure
which is in the same way that capital
amplifies the gains on labor right
it
this technology is becoming
more specialized over time and therefore
more of a
uh overall component of the security
network of bitcoin
um
and so this is this has a very
interesting effect too that it's drawing
in
more skin in the game for market actors
so
because when you start shifting into
technology intensive security model
there's a lot more capital
long-term capital investment necessary
to be competitive so you need to be
you need to have larger and more
sophisticated capital operations versus
just kind of plugging in and
participating in mining when it's
profitable and unplugging when it's not
this fixed cost of capital now needs to
be amortized across more bitcoin mining
and so the network
is actually becoming
more anti-fragile through these hardware
cycles so as each new generation of
hardware comes online that's more
efficient than its predecessors the
predecessor hardware is rolled out into
locations that have cheaper energy
whereas the new generation hardware can
go to higher cost energy markets and
still be profitable because they're
they're producing more hashes um
per unit of energy expended
and so
that's powerful because you're
it's pushing instead of just pushing
older generation hardware into the scrap
yard right it's actually pushing it
into other markets so we're getting more
decentralization from hardware cycle the
hardware cycle we're getting more hash
power overall because you just have more
penetration of the bitcoin mining
network globally
um and then you're ultimately getting
more security so this gets back into
that
virtuous cycle of of bitcoin mining
which
is uh you know as bitcoin network
becomes more secure bitcoin becomes more
desired as a store of value
as it becomes more desired as a store
value its price goes up as its price
goes up mining becomes more profitable
as mining becomes more profitable more
capex comes into the bitcoin mining
network to secure it
and so on and so forth and this this is
that
uninterruptible virtuous cycle that is
bitcoin's network proliferation and no
one's figured out how to stop it yet so
i thought this was just another another
good way to look at it and we're kind of
back to that
bitcoin is a microcosm of capitalism
right there has there's this
very competitive game a market called
bitcoin mining
and
it's it is forcing everyone that's
participating in an economy with money
to kind of
uh
re-evaluate their strategy and that
there's you know on sale went through
countless examples of this last time
from
square needing to sell um
bitcoin or if a social media platform
incorporated it that other social media
platforms would have to do it so there's
just this
vortex or black hole like
quality to bitcoin that it's it's kind
of radiating
it's pulling all industries and market
actors into its
vortex and forcing them to to basically
be more capitalistic in their approach
if that makes sense so
really interesting stuff um
and it you know to that point you can't
ignore game theory this is not something
you can
turn off or wish away
um it's it's an unstoppable force in the
sense that
all participants in game theory are
operating in their best interest so it's
going to really dictate the direction of
the marketplace over time um
and since bitcoin you know it's kind of
like
as naval said there's two ways to
organize markets
uh either by
freedom or by force so like by prices or
by coercion kind of thing and since
bitcoin's so resistant to coercion
that i think we're really just seeing
all the free market principles that it
represents
um
being reinforced and radiated out into
the the broader economy and so
this gets us into the third layer
which is politics right so politics is
that apparatus of coercion or force
in most modern marketplaces
um but with bitcoin
because it's so resistant
there's a different dynamic at play here
and sailor makes the point that
every time a regime is hostile towards
bitcoin mining
you're just creating incentives for
others to be accommodating so you're
basically
all of this
unstoppable
um
financial incentive to
work with bitcoin and accommodate its
success if a if a politician is drawing
an artificial box around an area saying
we don't want that here you're now
pushing out all the best and brightest
the entrepreneurs the tax base the
wealth all the things that come with
this wave of innovation get pushed out
of that imaginary box and so what you're
basically doing is creating a windfall
opportunity for competing jurisdictions
so this is that
this kind of gets into that sovereign
individual thesis where
nation states are now forced to compete
in the in marketplaces basically as a
result of digital technology because the
coercion is just not as effective
so which is another way to say that you
can't have this
coordinated collusion among states which
we could almost say fiat currency is
that right everyone everyone could
debase their currency because everyone
else was doing it and no
citizens had no other option
um but with the introduction of another
option it's forcing all of these actors
to become more honest in their dealings
and so every time one political regime
pushes bitcoin out they're creating
incentives for others to take them in
this leads to a scramble really
if you just play out if you just game it
out
that
political actors will be scrambling to
attract bitcoin miners and their tax
revenues
um and this converts
bitcoin mining
the ones like wherever bitcoin mining is
finds a home right
it's now converting all the stakeholders
related to that mining uh operation into
a political lobbying mechanism which
sailor makes a brilliant point there
and
you know all of these jurisdictions
today were mired in dut um you're
already seeing this at the fringes a
little bit you see like mayor of miami
and a few states in the us trying to be
uh very accommodating to bitcoin but i
think this is only going to escalate
as the true
insolvency or we could say poor solvency
positions of many of these governments
comes to the surface
and that they're just they're out of
money right they they can't leave any
stone unturned so to speak
uh and it appears to me as sailor said
you know 100 megawatts is worth 300
million dollars a year
these are massive numbers
and is a very large incentive for
political structures that may be hostile
to become accommodating over time
um and the net result
you know sailor said it's a
self-distributing dynamic and
increasingly secure network
so this is where you know i feel like
we're very
in the middle of the unstoppability of
bitcoin at this point when you come to
see the incentives operating in multiple
sides
at multiple layers in multiple ways um
it becomes
very hard to try and
do a do some mental gymnastics into a
situation that that sees it failing
almost because you have
you have the willpower of every
actor that wishes to preserve wealth
aligned with the proliferation of this
network
um
and so the the other result of this
that's really interesting is that it's a
stabilizing force right we're bringing
stability
to energy markets as a buyer of last
resort
as a monetizer of stranded energy
sources you know as sailor said this
thing can be
bitcoin mining can be an oasis of
prosperity
so anywhere there's cheap energy right
you don't need any other infrastructure
really in place you just need an
internet connection and bitcoin mining
hardware and you can create digital gold
get the digital gold business
this also brings
stability to technology industries as an
insatiable source of demand for
semiconductors
so now all the seasonality and
fluctuations and risks that
semiconductors went through they now
have effectively
a buyer of last resort as well
and the persistence of again back to the
persistence of bitcoin the persistence
of revenue expectations for
semiconductor producers this is going to
lead to
larger and deeper capital investments
right because they just
as the lindy effect of bitcoin takes
more whole more and more hold and people
expect it to be there over time
you can make larger capital investments
based on the certainty of that revenue
and this will lead to again deeper more
complicated capital structures more
investment more roundaboutness of
production which is to say that
we become more efficient in production
we become more aggregate wealth
aggregately wealthy as a result so
a lot of impacts here
uh and then finally which is really
interesting is it
this same mode bitcoin is bringing
stability to political regimes so those
that offer
bitcoin miners the lowest tax
frameworks and the most predictable
legal frameworks they're going to
out-compete those who do not right all
the wealth which again is
hyper-mobile in bitcoin the talent um
the the knowledge the skills the
experience all of these
factors that make an economy vibrant
will
flow into the jurisdictions where
bitcoin is treated best
and it will relegate those that that
ignore this or resist this into the
economic dust bin effectively so it's
this hyper competitive darwinian
dynamic that bitcoin's bringing to the
geopolitical sphere that makes it
seemingly unstoppable
and you know this could lead to a lot of
things this could lead to
incentives i'm sorry
subsidies for bitcoin mining it would
make sense for states to subsidize these
operations to get them up and running
and attract
um you know local entrepreneurial
networks into the into the fold
uh this is again increasing political
stakeholders skin in the game
so if they start subsidizing these
things clearly they're going to pass
regulations that are favorable to them
they want to make sure that they
preserve the local industry and the tax
base that comes from that
and ultimately
i think if you game it out you could see
bitcoin as being a driver for more
political consensus
and that
you know all of this
gridlock that we see at the federal
level today
when they become when governments become
more accountable to their bottom line
they're much more likely to reach
consensus
that
improves their financial position and
moves them forward
um
again largely
uh that path forward i think
necessarily goes through bitcoin mining
and bitcoin production so
you know i my
great hope is that
as a result of this
coercion resistant money emerging and it
forcing all market actors to adapt their
strategies
to be more productive and less
antagonistic because antagonism just
doesn't work as well
that bitcoin
almost
encourages us or incentivizes us to rely
on our reason
right this this
objective distinctively human faculty we
all have human reason
over force right it's almost like maybe
you could say it's simpler bitcoin's
making force unreasonable
so in that in that way it is making
civilization more sustainable over time
uh less prone to
you know booms and busts right and again
the bust typically
uh
the beginning of the bus is typically
the breakdown of the monetary standard
once you've compromised the most
important protocol in a civilization
which is money
that tends to presage
civilizational collapse as we've seen
countless times throughout history
so
bitcoin acting as the shock absorber in
the energy political and technology
domains
is really exciting frankly and
i am
excited to see where it goes so
i hope you guys enjoyed that that was
episode 14 of the sailor series uh i'll
see you back here again soon as we dive
into the last four's last four layers
of the seven layers of the proof-of-work
security model