SaylorCorpus

Bitcoin’s Seven Layers of Security #1 | The Saylor Series | Episode 14 (WiM056)

WiM Media · 2021-10-05 · 1h 18m · View on YouTube →

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hey guys

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this is robert reed love from the what

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is money show and as you learn by

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watching this show bitcoin is the single

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so we we've talked about

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bitcoin and how it's dematerializing

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these critical security functions

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traditionally provided by banks

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and or governments

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and is doing this through this

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proof-of-work security model

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but you've laid out this framework that

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i think is very brilliant and it's you

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know proof-of-work has many layers to it

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that i guess you would say these are

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protecting it from disruption

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um so maybe you could just introduce

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that model and we could walk through it

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sure you know i've called it the seven

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layers of security

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but i think um

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we should start

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excuse me

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[Music]

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start with a fundamental observation

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what we're trying to create with bitcoin

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is a digital

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property network

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something that will last for a thousand

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years or 10 000 years how do i create

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digital property in cyberspace and we

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can call it money if we like digital

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monetary network or digital property

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network

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what i want is i want a decentralized

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network that will last

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past the average life expectancy of a

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human being

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or an institution

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or a nation-state

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how do i do that

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well with um

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the beauty of proof-of-work is that

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the network derives its integrity

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from the interplay

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the miners and the nodes

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and the holders or the wallets if you

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but with a special emphasis on the

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miners

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what what what do i define as security

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you know property needs to be optimized

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for integrity and durability over time

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integrity meaning

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the protocol

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the protocol can't be corrupted

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right can't mutate if the if the

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protocol mutates we go from 21 million

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to 48 million

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you get a

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monstrosity so you don't want a mutation

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and then i don't want it to die

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if i said i want to design an immortal

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creature something that'll live for a

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million years

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uh and i want it to maintain its

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integrity

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i've i've got to protect the protocol

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and then i've also got a feed it energy

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and resources continually

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and i'm just going to call that and i

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have to protect it from a hostile attack

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in the near term

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sometimes when we think about security

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we think about just

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avoiding an attack but really security

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you can't attack in the near term

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we don't want it to die

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and and most importantly

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if you live

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but you go insane

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or you or you get a grotesque mutation

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then did you really live so how am i

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going to achieve

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my quest for immortality

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in a network

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right and and the beauty of proof of

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it is an open protocol

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that is darwinian

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and and competitive

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in a way such that it is not just

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self-correcting on the on the protocol

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level to ensure correct money

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but it's also self-healing

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and uh and it's adaptive

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to the environment around it

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so i went i like to call these the seven

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layers of security so what do you have

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you have an energy layer

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a technology layer

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a political layer a financial layer a

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network layer a spatial layer and a

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temporal layer of energy those seven

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seven various dimensions

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so let's start with uh the first

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dimension of security energy

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well i

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i have a hash rate

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say we've got about a hundred extra hash

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right now

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well i have to feed it energy in order

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to create the 100 extra hash

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bitcoin

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uh is a big customer of energy

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so in fact it turns out the bitcoin is

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the most valuable

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use of of energy or maybe the most

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valuable

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most compelling industrial customer of

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energy in the world right now

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you can generate about 40 cents a

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kilowatt hour in revenue

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uh mining bitcoin

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that makes it um

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interesting because that co-ops all the

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energy industry

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so one way that bitcoin spreads and

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stays

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organically vital

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it forms partnerships with the energy

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industry

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if you have a volcano in the middle of

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uh central america

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the value of that energy sold within 500

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miles of you is like one penny

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a kilowatt hour

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unless you sell it to bitcoin

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and it's 40 cents kilohertz

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so bitcoin is the best customer for your

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volcano it's the bitcoin is a customer

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of stranded energy

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intermittent energy

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uh energy on any frequency

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and energy at any scale

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and you don't need to be co-located with

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the cust with an industrial customer or

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a consumer

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and you don't need bandwidth

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so for example um

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what's the second best you know use of

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energy maybe like running netflix or

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google data center

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but if you want to run a google data

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center

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you need to be within

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you need to be within a fiber optic

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distance of the major switching networks

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because you're streaming video and

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streaming

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a lot of

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high bandwidth queries

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so they're bandwidth intensive

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and they need to be triple redundant

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because they need to be uh they can't

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fail if you're if you're trying to

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operate a car with google maps

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you can't afford to have an outage in

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the network

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bitcoin miners

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are are so much better than a typical

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data center because

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you could monetize the entire volcano or

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you could monetize the entire waterfall

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or the entire nuclear reactor the full

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bandwidth of it

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you could do it at a north pole

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you can do it with a satellite uplink

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and you can monetize intermittent energy

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coming off of wind or wave or

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solar and you can also shut it down in a

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heartbeat

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with fairly low economic costs so

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so that makes bitcoin

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the most compelling

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technology

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for the energy industry that's come

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along this decade maybe in a long time

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the last big energy technology was

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aluminum when people would use

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their excess aluminum to or sorry their

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excess energy to smelt aluminum

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well bitcoin bitcoin rebuilt up and in

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spades

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to do bitcoin mining you don't need a

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port to ship aluminum in and out of

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you don't need an aluminum factory which

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is difficult and you don't need aluminum

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and you also don't need the industrial

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demand for aluminum

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which eventually saturates aluminum is a

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specialty metal

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right

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what is bitcoin bitcoin is money okay so

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so half of everything that the human

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race has is bitcoin

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or will be bitcoin in time so bitcoin

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mining is is securing and producing

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something which is of enormous value

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on a very thin line

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based upon any flavor and frequency

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of energy

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and there's really nothing like that

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why does that make the network secure

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bitcoin miners um are continually

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looking for new energy sources and

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they're negotiating for cheap energy and

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when they buy it they become a big

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customer

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as they become customers of energy

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producers everywhere in the world

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the energy producers

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uh become political allies of bitcoin

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[Music]

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so the energy producers are all

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regulated entities but they're all very

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credible and they're all and they all

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are wired in the political fabric of

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every society

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if you are if you are the best customer

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of the utility in the city or the state

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or the country then that utility has a

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vested interest in protecting your

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interest

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bitcoin co-ops energy companies and also

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bitcoin is hope

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for a utility if you're a

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value stock

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100 year old utility company

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you're not getting a high multiple in in

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the stock market

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there's not a lot of excitement in fact

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you're regulated and there are limits on

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how much money you can make

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by selling your energy to consumers or

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to businesses you know if if the power

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company in new york city just jacked the

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price of energy by a factor of three

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they would get shut down by their

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regulators

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on the other hand

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uh if you get in the bitcoin mining

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business

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right

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you don't have those those kind of

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regulations on you so so bitcoin is is a

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chance for

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energy companies to become technology

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companies

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and it solves so many of their problems

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um i can generate more

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revenue check i can generate i can

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generate revenue at much higher

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price per kilowatt hour it's a very high

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price

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customer the value and use of

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electricity for bitcoin miner is higher

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than any other customer they have so

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that's good check

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it's portable

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and uh so that means every place i've

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got stranded energy production

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facilities i can move the bitcoin mine

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to the energy check that's interesting

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it's a it's an energy shock absorber

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if i have um

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a renewable energy network

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say with wind and solar

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what i want to do is i want to build it

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to the level of peak demand but if i

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build at the level of peak demand i will

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over build it by a factor of two or more

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and that means i'll be running a 50

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utilization

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for my consumer and other industrial

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customers

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so how am i going to find a customer

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that's willing to actually take up half

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of my energy production

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and then turn off

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for 10 hours a year or 20 hours a year

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when there's a brownout without

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complaining

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right the hospital is not going to do

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that yeah yeah yeah homes aren't going

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to do that

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i need some kind of industrial producer

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that becomes a shock absorber

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they're going to drive up my utilization

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in 98

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and then when i brown out they're going

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to turn off and give back energy to the

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network

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bitcoin represents a

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a driver for the development of

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sustainable and renewable energy

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it also represents

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a um a technology to provide more

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reliability and fault tolerance to a

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power grid

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right

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and um

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you know if you think about the role of

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capacitors or batteries or shock

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absorbers

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in in electrical machines or mechanical

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machines yeah

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that's what bitcoin is for

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a power network right right right

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let me ask you so

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you describe money as

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energy socio-political energy um

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and so in that framework i guess we

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could consider banks historically where

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they were actually providing custody of

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they were kind of like

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energy stores in a way right we're

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storing this excess productive economic

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energy in gold that banks were

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custodying for us

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and now with bitcoin we have this more

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direct path to monetizing energy

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and so what i think about here is

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there's kind of this interesting

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um thing where you know you've heard of

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a power bank like these little devices

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that will charge your phone or whatever

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it stores energy so it's like banks and

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power banks do you see

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the energy

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users

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and banks somehow converging because it

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seems like you kind of on a bitcoin

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standard you eliminate the need for a

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custodial bank

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they become kind of synonymous with

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energy producers do you see those

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industries coming together in the future

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well i mean i

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i think once you understand

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that a bank

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is storing monetary energy

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then you've got a bank of batteries the

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storing electrical energy

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and then bitcoin is sitting in the

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middle it's encrypting the energy from

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electrical energy

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into monetary energy

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and so

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in one hand it's upgrading the raw

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the raw physical energy

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through the encryption process

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and then on the other hand

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it's uh it's digitally transforming

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analog fiat energy

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into encrypted money

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digital money

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and um

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[Music]

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that makes bitcoin a bank

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an energy bank a monetary bank

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it makes it the the world's greatest

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battery

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right i mean you could you could look at

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it from two angles right banks are

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bleeding off one percent of your energy

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a month you know due to inflation

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batteries are bleeding off one percent

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of your electrical energy a month

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just due to battery

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you know engineering

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you've got two you've got two

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inefficient energy systems

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batteries and power grids don't work

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that well

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and fiat banks and monetary grades don't

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work that well

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and bitcoin plus lightning

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gives you

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a battery to store all the world's

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energy forever without power loss

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and the other day i sent a thousand sats

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on the lightning network and in one

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second for one set

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so you know literally you've got speed

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of light

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nearly

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you know what is the cost of one set

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right if it's such an infinitesimally

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small number a fraction of a fraction of

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a penny yeah if that

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so bitcoin's a very efficient

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energy system

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i think that the significance here is

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that bitcoin is just is disruptive

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technology for the entire energy market

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and it's co-opting the energy producers

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and energy investors

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into bitcoin

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what you see right now is you see a lot

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of um

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you see a lot of

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traditional power companies that used to

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be in the energy business they're

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getting into bitcoin mining

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people with natural gas people in the

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nuclear in

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industry people in the wind and solar

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industry

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they're getting into bitcoin mining or

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they're partnering with bitcoin mines

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so bitcoin recruited

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energy capital

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and bitcoin secures the network with

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hundreds and hundreds of of producers of

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energy are plugged in the bitcoin

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network

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creating that hash wall

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so that's the first layer of security

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for bitcoin

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and if you're going to attack it

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you know it's no small feat

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to go and and collect that much energy

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you almost can't you can you're not

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going to collect twice as much energy or

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as much energy as is currently in the

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bitcoin mining network

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politically economically practically i

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just don't know how you would do it

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right right right very very problematic

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so that

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and there's no shortcut right

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in that regard

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there's uh there's an energy wall

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and uh you have to jump over it

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and uh and it's a lot you know at the

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point where you're talking about 100

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terawatt hours of energy or something

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it's a lot of energy

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so that the second layer though is

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technology and this i don't think people

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really understand that well and when i

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talk about technology i'm referring to

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the to bitcoin asic miners

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you know

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bitcoin is a wall of encrypted energy so

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the energy is the first part but the

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encrypting the encryption the crypto is

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the second part the crypto wall of

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energy it's not raw energy

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if it was raw energy you just need a

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hundred terawatt hours to start to get

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parity

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but when it's encrypted energy

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i need i need uh 100 exahash of shaw 256

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mining equipment

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and since it's like 10 000

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miners

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right to get to an extra hash right now

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okay then that's a hun that's a million

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a million mining rigs

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of the latest build

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how do you come up with a million mining

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you know it's like it's not no one's got

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a million mining rigs sitting around i

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mean it's not clear how long it would

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take to manufacture a million mining

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rigs right

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bitcoins co-opting technology companies

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so bit you know bit main is a big player

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but but there are other big players too

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and and as bitcoin gets larger i think

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you'll see the intel's of the world and

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you'll see you know you'll see other

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semiconductor companies

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designing bitcoin mining rigs and

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getting into space

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and and um

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this is another example where this is

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open and competitive

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you know who wants it the most

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whoever wants it and what capital you

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need this is semiconductor fabrication

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capital you have to fabricate these a6

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the s19 family is five times more

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efficient than the s9s

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so if you wanted to generate an exah

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on the s9 family it took 150 megawatts

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of power

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that's a lot of power

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if you wanted to do it with s19s it's 30

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megawatts of power

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a 5x difference in a generation

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if you get through two or two

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generations every 10 years or three

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right you know you're talking about 20x

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improvement

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i mean we're we're 100x more technically

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efficient today than we were eight years

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ago where will we be in 10 more years

0:22:00

we go back and forth right there's all

0:22:02

sorts of people with opinions there's

0:22:04

moore's law some people think that asic

0:22:06

basic technology efficiency will slow

0:22:09

down but then again people been

0:22:10

predicting

0:22:11

that we would hit a wall in moore's law

0:22:13

for a while and they're still not quite

0:22:15

right

0:22:22

when you when you understand the bitcoin

0:22:22

network what you can think is that the

0:22:25

bitcoin mining network 10 years ago

0:22:28

was very energy intensive and technology

0:22:33

there's a time when you were just using

0:22:34

off-the-shelf chips and then you were

0:22:37

using gpus

0:22:39

and then you were using asic first

0:22:41

generation and then asic next generation

0:22:44

so we're like five generations into this

0:22:48

in the early time frame you through

0:22:51

think about it you throw a probably a

0:22:53

thousand times if not a million times as

0:22:56

much energy to generate a hash

0:22:59

right

0:23:00

and now you're throwing 30 megawatts to

0:23:02

generate an extra hash

0:23:05

but we'll get to the next generation

0:23:06

will be five megawatts and then what

0:23:09

happens when we get to one megawatt

0:23:11

well so as you go out

0:23:13

energy is still important

0:23:15

but it turns out the tech that the

0:23:17

network is rotating from energy

0:23:20

intensive security

0:23:22

to technology intensive security right

0:23:24

right

0:23:25

like what it what if you imagine one day

0:23:28

there will be 10 million mining rigs but

0:23:31

they'll be seventh generation asics and

0:23:34

they will be a hundred times more

0:23:36

efficient than anything we have today

0:23:39

what that means is that 99 of the hash

0:23:41

power will come from that generation of

0:23:44

mining rigs

0:23:46

which means that all this stuff that we

0:23:48

have today

0:23:49

becomes one percent of the network right

0:23:53

which means it gets squeezed out of the

0:23:55

ecosystem right all those miners that

0:23:57

are obsolete go out of business

0:24:00

and so that technology

0:24:02

intensity has a couple of dynamics one

0:24:06

one is that's what keeps the network

0:24:08

from consuming all the energy in the

0:24:10

world

0:24:11

right i mean people say silly things

0:24:14

like oh well the energy usage is going

0:24:16

to increase with the price well no it's

0:24:19

the energy usage maybe will increase

0:24:22

with the log of the price

0:24:24

that is if the price goes up by a factor

0:24:26

of 10 energy usage might go up by a

0:24:29

factor of two

0:24:31

and if price goes up by a factor of a

0:24:33

hundred energy uses might go up by a

0:24:35

factor of three or four

0:24:37

but what you've got is a situation where

0:24:41

the halvings are cutting the block

0:24:43

reward in half every four years

0:24:46

so that's a built-in

0:24:49

you know a built-in uh 5x improvement in

0:24:53

efficiency every decade

0:24:55

and then if you crank over that another

0:24:58

improvement in hardware

0:25:00

you're talking about a 50 times

0:25:03

improvement in tech efficiency in a

0:25:05

decade

0:25:07

or 50 times 50

0:25:10

in 20 years

0:25:13

right so the price has got to go way up

0:25:17

and even so what you've got is a

0:25:19

rotation the network is rotating from

0:25:23

i burn a lot of energy to generate my

0:25:25

hashes do i burn less energy to i burn

0:25:28

less energy to generate more hashes

0:25:31

it's not hard to see this right it's

0:25:33

it's in your iphone your iphone has more

0:25:35

processing power than the space shuttle

0:25:37

had yeah 40 years right right you've got

0:25:40

cooper computer in your pocket

0:25:44

you got to assume

0:25:45

that the security chips that generate

0:25:49

the hashes just keep getting better

0:25:51

and because bitcoin is unique in the

0:25:53

protocol

0:25:56

all of the other processing power is

0:25:58

irrelevant right bitcoin is a darwinian

0:26:01

competition

0:26:03

to um to generate

0:26:05

shaw 256 hashes

0:26:10

it's 95

0:26:11

dominant in that game right now right i

0:26:15

there's a few other crypto networks that

0:26:17

use that but they're like one or two

0:26:18

percent yeah

0:26:21

so that's that

0:26:23

uniqueness with regard to the

0:26:25

proof-of-work protocol

0:26:27

protects it

0:26:29

from an attack from all of the aws

0:26:31

network or all the google network or if

0:26:33

if everybody turned their iphones at

0:26:36

bitcoin mining it wouldn't help them

0:26:37

that much right yeah

0:26:38

[Music]

0:26:40

so is the common

0:26:43

the theme here between the energy layer

0:26:45

of security and the technology layer of

0:26:48

security

0:26:49

is that bitcoin you said bitcoin's

0:26:52

essentially co-opting these industries

0:26:53

so it's incentivizing

0:26:55

[Music]

0:26:56

um it's a source of demand for energy

0:26:59

that's basically unquenchable

0:27:01

and it's a source of demand for

0:27:03

semiconductors

0:27:05

for specialized mining semiconductors

0:27:07

specialized

0:27:08

mining so much markets

0:27:10

yeah people think well 50 60 of the

0:27:13

miners cost is going to energy

0:27:16

well actually the miners are spending

0:27:18

money on energy and they're spending

0:27:20

money on

0:27:21

semiconductor mining rigs yeah and then

0:27:24

they're spending money on the mining

0:27:26

centers themselves the heat sink the

0:27:28

heat engineer and the generators and

0:27:30

right like

0:27:33

so there's a competition and the

0:27:34

question is are you better off having

0:27:37

inefficient miners and more and cheap

0:27:39

power are you better off having

0:27:41

efficient miners and expensive power

0:27:43

right and do they coexist that was my

0:27:45

next question is do the so that the

0:27:48

new generation miners go to the more

0:27:51

expensive energy sources and then the

0:27:53

older generations roll off to cheaper

0:27:55

energy sources

0:27:56

and they both operate well you've got

0:27:57

like three generations of miners right

0:28:00

like people are running old inefficient

0:28:02

miners in china on free power

0:28:05

and then there and then in the us and

0:28:07

north america publicly traded miners are

0:28:09

buying

0:28:10

the latest generation expensive miners

0:28:13

because

0:28:15

their power is more expensive but they

0:28:17

have more capital

0:28:18

if i have 500 million in capital

0:28:22

like uh

0:28:23

spend 60 million dollars by 10 000 s 19s

0:28:28

mine one exahash on 30 megawatts and

0:28:30

make 120 million dollars a year

0:28:33

good deal probably good deal right

0:28:39

so in that case

0:28:39

you would rather you would rather buy

0:28:40

the better equipment and i think you'll

0:28:43

find at any given time there's like two

0:28:45

to there's three generations of mining

0:28:47

equipment

0:28:48

when the price goes high if you look at

0:28:50

the hash rate of the network back in um

0:28:54

the first quarter

0:28:55

there was a point when the hash rate got

0:28:57

to like

0:28:58

190 or something

0:29:01

and i thought the peak was 170 but there

0:29:03

was a surge up by about 10 or 15 exahash

0:29:07

and i posit that that surge was because

0:29:10

people turned on third generation

0:29:12

mining equipment like like the oldest

0:29:14

least efficient stuff and it

0:29:17

you there's a way there's a relationship

0:29:20

an s19 is generating

0:29:23

40 cents a kilowatt hour right now

0:29:26

ergo it is profitable to buy in

0:29:29

electricity up to 39 cents kilowatt hour

0:29:33

and s9

0:29:34

was five times more inefficient so

0:29:37

s9s were profitable at eight cents a

0:29:41

kilowatt hour

0:29:43

but if you go back one generation before

0:29:45

that if you're if you're five times less

0:29:47

efficient than that you're profitable at

0:29:49

one and a half cents

0:29:52

a kilowatt hour so the break-even point

0:29:55

is a function of the semiconductor yeah

0:29:58

or the joules per terahash right right

0:30:01

and that's a technology driver it's not

0:30:03

an energy driver yeah and and most of

0:30:06

the people that model bitcoin mining

0:30:09

they don't really focus upon the

0:30:11

technical efficiency of the miners

0:30:15

and by miner i don't just mean the one

0:30:17

mining rig i just mean the mining

0:30:18

operator that has a mixture of first

0:30:21

generation second generation third

0:30:23

generation equipment yeah

0:30:30

the price you know and you may turn off

0:30:30

like if the price of bitcoin went to uh

0:30:33

five thousand dollars a coin right now

0:30:36

people would probably turn off the old

0:30:38

mining equipment

0:30:40

if they had to unless the energy was

0:30:42

right

0:30:44

you can bootleg bitcoin on free energy

0:30:47

if you're steering the energy but if the

0:30:48

energy costs three cents a kilowatt hour

0:30:51

you're going to you're going to turn off

0:30:52

your old equipment you're going to keep

0:30:54

the new equipment running

0:30:56

and that's a that's an adaptive

0:30:58

correcting system itself when the price

0:31:00

goes up you're going to turn on the old

0:31:02

equipment

0:31:06

and over time though these are these are

0:31:08

transient phenomenon

0:31:11

because the more important phenomena to

0:31:14

focus on is that over a decade

0:31:17

the technical efficiency of the mining

0:31:20

network is going to increase by a factor

0:31:23

20 to 100.

0:31:25

depending upon the rate at which people

0:31:27

upgrade the semiconductors and

0:31:31

you know there are a lot of ways you can

0:31:32

enter into the network and you can

0:31:34

disrupt equilibrium

0:31:37

one way is as a nation state you can

0:31:39

start mining off of a volcano

0:31:42

the other way is is you can design a

0:31:44

totally new family of asics

0:31:48

so you know

0:31:50

maybe intel or apple wants to get into

0:31:52

space they could disrupt it

0:31:55

a big energy producer could disrupt it

0:31:57

right now the limiting factor is the

0:31:59

number of mining rigs you get your hands

0:32:01

on that's good

0:32:03

right um that crates

0:32:06

that creates some um predictability to

0:32:08

it yeah

0:32:10

and uh that keeps that keeps us from

0:32:12

going chaotic

0:32:17

if you look at these two layers of

0:32:18

security right the energy layer is

0:32:21

co-opting energy providers all around

0:32:23

the world and the technology

0:32:26

dimension is co-opting semiconductor

0:32:28

manufacturers

0:32:30

and if one of them like bitmain gets too

0:32:32

much power

0:32:34

you know jeff bezos uh famous line

0:32:37

your margin is my opportunity

0:32:40

right yeah

0:32:42

right so if uh if one company gets too

0:32:45

much power then

0:32:47

well this is not terribly complicated

0:32:49

engineering i mean

0:32:51

you know it's well understood how to

0:32:53

design shaw 256 a6 there's a capitalism

0:32:57

difficult to adjust

0:32:59

yeah yeah and

0:33:01

there are a lot of companies like

0:33:03

qualcomm intel

0:33:05

when they get squeezed they need a new

0:33:07

market

0:33:11

this is a new market for them at the

0:33:11

price you know

0:33:13

as the price goes up and and the

0:33:15

interesting thing of course is if

0:33:17

there's um if there's only one provider

0:33:19

of shaw 256 miners bit main

0:33:22

doesn't that create an artificial

0:33:24

scarcity to uh hash rate

0:33:32

and if it if there is a scarcity to hash

0:33:32

rate doesn't the price go you know the

0:33:34

profitability of bitcoin miners goes up

0:33:36

right

0:33:39

you know and so if the profitability of

0:33:41

bitcoin miners goes up then don't more

0:33:43

people want to get in the business and

0:33:44

if more people want to get in the

0:33:45

business don't they need to buy bitcoin

0:33:48

mining rigs and if they need to buy it

0:33:50

and there's infinite money don't they go

0:33:52

and find someone else to

0:33:54

break that monopoly

0:33:56

right

0:33:59

so energy and technology are are a key

0:34:02

part of the equation

0:34:04

but they're not the only part of the

0:34:05

equation because

0:34:07

if i want to generate hashes i have to

0:34:09

set up a bitcoin mining facility

0:34:12

there's physical nexus i have to do it

0:34:15

in iceland or el salvador

0:34:21

or canada or texas

0:34:21

and i you know you

0:34:23

you could probably run

0:34:25

your stake validator on a secret machine

0:34:28

in your basement

0:34:29

but you can't run a you know 150

0:34:33

megawatt facility on a secret

0:34:36

license you need the support of the

0:34:38

mayor the county

0:34:40

the governor

0:34:42

you know you could look at this as a

0:34:43

negative it isn't it's a positive

0:34:46

what it means is that bitcoin miners are

0:34:48

knocking on doors

0:34:50

everywhere in the universe and they're

0:34:52

looking for supported political

0:34:53

jurisdictions

0:34:58

you know if new york city doesn't want

0:34:58

to mine bitcoin maybe texas does

0:35:02

maybe florida does maybe wyoming does

0:35:06

right and so if china doesn't well then

0:35:09

maybe kazakhstan does

0:35:12

in fact the more irrational one country

0:35:15

is the more

0:35:16

appealing bitcoin mining is to the

0:35:18

others right

0:35:21

when china actually cracked down on

0:35:23

bitcoin mining the revenues of bitcoin

0:35:26

miners doubled the profits

0:35:29

quadrupled

0:35:34

and the incentive to get in the mining

0:35:34

business

0:35:35

jumped

0:35:40

and uh so

0:35:40

what you have is an interesting dynamic

0:35:42

where bitcoin miners partner with energy

0:35:45

companies and they partner with

0:35:47

technology companies but they also

0:35:49

partner with political jurisdictions and

0:35:51

politicians

0:35:56

and this is an interesting situation too

0:35:56

because this is so darwinian um what

0:35:58

happens if you're a bitcoin miner and

0:36:01

you set up a billion dollar bitcoin

0:36:03

mining rig in new york city and then his

0:36:05

new mayor and he outlaws bitcoin money

0:36:08

what happens to your capital

0:36:24

and because they have skin in the game

0:36:24

that means that they have to do their

0:36:26

due diligence and they've got a long

0:36:28

time horizon

0:36:31

a person that's mining bitcoin

0:36:33

is um is looking out five years looking

0:36:36

out to you kind of want to be in a

0:36:38

jurisdiction where you think that a

0:36:40

decade from now you'll still be able to

0:36:42

mine bitcoin

0:36:44

and so

0:36:45

it forces you uh to be more thoughtful

0:36:49

you know and the next step is well i

0:36:51

just invested hundreds of millions of

0:36:52

dollars in this county i guess i'd

0:36:55

probably better contribute to the county

0:36:57

election and get the county the mayor

0:36:59

elected right

0:37:01

right

0:37:02

you put down roots

0:37:04

because you have a vested interest

0:37:05

because you have something to lose

0:37:08

so the bitcoin mining network actually

0:37:10

becomes

0:37:11

a political lobbying network for bitcoin

0:37:15

interesting

0:37:16

and then every politician that has a

0:37:19

bitcoin mine has tax revenue

0:37:22

has you know when new york wanted to

0:37:25

ban bitcoin mining

0:37:27

that was blocked by a politician

0:37:30

because the politician got a letter from

0:37:32

the union

0:37:33

and the union said

0:37:35

you know we're going to lose jobs

0:37:41

so all the money

0:37:41

all the money that flows into creating

0:37:43

mining centers

0:37:46

creates jobs creates tax revenue

0:37:48

supports politicians

0:37:54

you know creates massive revenues for

0:37:54

engineering companies for uh for real

0:37:57

estate companies for landlords you know

0:37:59

et cetera it's good for the local

0:38:01

economy bitcoin brings prosperity

0:38:05

anywhere on earth

0:38:07

you know you might be a limousine

0:38:09

liberal in the upper east side and not

0:38:11

like the use of electricity

0:38:14

you know on the other hand but if you're

0:38:16

living in the middle of central africa

0:38:17

and you have evol if you have a volcano

0:38:19

or you have a waterfall you know and 90

0:38:23

of your population is living below the

0:38:25

poverty level and there is no industry

0:38:27

and someone shows up and offers to like

0:38:29

give you billions of dollars if they can

0:38:31

attach a windmill

0:38:33

to your waterfall right or turbine to

0:38:35

your waterfall how do you feel about

0:38:38

situation yeah

0:38:40

yeah it's it's incentivizing

0:38:43

everyone to interact with it

0:38:46

in a way that you know contributes to

0:38:49

and i would argue ultimately ensures its

0:38:51

success that that's the key that's the

0:38:53

thing is so hard to get your head around

0:38:54

here is like it's not even

0:38:56

it's not something that's being imposed

0:38:58

it's really just it's a game theory

0:39:01

that's turned on people so people in a

0:39:04

way have become a core component

0:39:06

of the bitcoin system it's like we you

0:39:08

know at every level we're incentivized

0:39:11

help it proliferate

0:39:13

100 megawatts is worth 300 million

0:39:15

dollars a year

0:39:21

netflix is not going to show up in el

0:39:21

salvador and offer them 300 million

0:39:23

dollars a year in order to run a data

0:39:25

center plugged into a volcano right

0:39:29

google is not going to show up in zambia

0:39:31

central africa and offer them 300

0:39:33

million dollars a year to run a google

0:39:34

data center

0:39:36

it's not going to happen

0:39:38

so what you have is bitcoin is hope for

0:39:43

energy

0:39:44

it is hope for your semiconductor

0:39:46

company it is hope for your political

0:39:49

jurisdiction

0:39:50

it solves a problem

0:39:53

and because it can go anywhere

0:39:55

right it can go anywhere on earth with a

0:39:57

satellite uplink

0:40:00

it's uh probably a more compelling

0:40:02

solution to someone that has natural

0:40:05

resources in a poor country

0:40:07

even than in a wealthy country

0:40:10

and what you end up with

0:40:13

a self-distributing dynamically

0:40:16

distributing bitcoin mining network

0:40:19

and it is solved for the problem

0:40:22

where do i find the cheapest energy in a

0:40:25

politically supportive jurisdiction

0:40:31

that's the problem you're solving for

0:40:31

that's not the same as the cheapest

0:40:32

energy

0:40:34

it has to be it has to be cheap energy

0:40:36

from an energy provider you trust in a

0:40:39

political jurisdiction you trust

0:40:44

okay what's the answer well the answer

0:40:44

is a dynamic equilibrium right it's

0:40:46

changing every single

0:40:49

week right yeah

0:40:51

you know it was different three years

0:40:53

ago three years ago there was free

0:40:56

electricity in provinces that had empty

0:40:58

you know excess coal

0:41:00

electricity capacity in china

0:41:03

and so you could get

0:41:05

effectively free energy

0:41:07

okay it was free but it wasn't

0:41:09

politically stable

0:41:11

now you can go to a politically stable

0:41:14

place like texas and pay three cents or

0:41:16

maybe you can get it for one penny in

0:41:17

kazakhstan

0:41:19

you know or maybe you can go some other

0:41:21

random place you could go to cuba or you

0:41:23

could get a bootleg thing in the jungle

0:41:25

from some warlord yeah for how long

0:41:30

while the big

0:41:32

the bitcoin mining network is

0:41:34

continually distributing itself

0:41:37

and it's organic it's just like asking

0:41:39

the question when we settle around the

0:41:42

around the earth where should we settle

0:41:44

that we will be able to make a living

0:41:46

and we won't suffer from famine

0:41:49

or tornado

0:41:50

and the answer is you don't know

0:41:52

i mean until you've lived 100 years you

0:41:54

don't know that place floods yeah

0:41:57

what's the likelihood of an earthquake

0:41:59

in your favorite place well

0:42:01

you'll find out so what happens well the

0:42:03

network distributes itself

0:42:06

some people make good choices some

0:42:08

people make unwise choices you know this

0:42:10

is back to anti-fragile or the like you

0:42:13

make really awful choices you'll

0:42:15

probably be put out of business within

0:42:16

36 months

0:42:18

if you make okay choices you might last

0:42:21

three to ten years

0:42:23

and then maybe there are other choices

0:42:24

where you'll be good for a hundred years

0:42:27

but maybe you're better off to go to the

0:42:28

place where you're good for six years

0:42:30

where the energy is one penny instead of

0:42:31

the place where you're good for a

0:42:32

hundred years where the energy is five

0:42:34

pennies

0:42:35

and maybe we could debate it

0:42:37

and maybe you have an opinion we can

0:42:39

argue to the cows come home but what

0:42:41

does it matter

0:42:43

it's better it's better just to release

0:42:46

the entire um

0:42:48

the entire creature

0:42:50

let the entire world work in a darwinian

0:42:53

adam smith

0:42:55

you know evolutionary fashion a

0:42:58

competitive way and um

0:43:01

often

0:43:02

you know the lesson of the markets is

0:43:04

there the market is smarter than anybody

0:43:09

you know you know every time i think

0:43:12

about what i knew half the time i

0:43:14

thought i knew it and i was wrong and

0:43:16

sometimes i was right but

0:43:18

the market generally outsmarts the

0:43:20

smartest person

0:43:22

so bitcoin mining

0:43:24

is a dynamic market in security and it's

0:43:27

shopping

0:43:29

it's balancing energy

0:43:31

versus technology versus uh political

0:43:34

support

0:43:36

and that takes us to the fourth layer of

0:43:38

security which is you know go ahead you

0:43:40

got a question yeah let me ask you one

0:43:41

question about that so

0:43:43

it is shopping all of these dimensions

0:43:46

but it's also stabilizing them and i

0:43:49

wonder does that apply to politics as

0:43:51

well because it seems like

0:43:52

yeah this industry is a shock absorber

0:43:55

right it is stabilizing it's a political

0:43:58

shock absorber and it's an energy shock

0:44:01

absorber

0:44:02

if you have um if you have a political

0:44:04

regime and you've got natural resources

0:44:07

but you your economy is is tanked yeah

0:44:11

bitcoin comes in

0:44:13

on one hand the bitcoin miner can

0:44:15

generate 500 million dollars a year in

0:44:18

revenue okay

0:44:20

on the other hand the bitcoin miner can

0:44:22

say we're not coming unless we actually

0:44:23

feel this is a stable regime to operate

0:44:26

in right

0:44:27

so maybe

0:44:29

you know how

0:44:30

there's that phrase like uh you know oh

0:44:33

i got married and my wife made me want

0:44:35

to be a better man

0:44:41

i was like okay well if you if you get

0:44:41

married you can't you have to give up

0:44:42

some of your bachelor ways

0:44:45

right

0:44:46

and if you have a child

0:44:48

you have to be even more responsible

0:44:53

the commitment

0:44:55

to a family is stabilizing

0:44:59

because you're thinking you know i just

0:45:00

i can't

0:45:01

you know do the crazy things i did when

0:45:04

i had no other responsibilities

0:45:06

if you actually don't have any industry

0:45:09

you have nothing to lose

0:45:12

and so a country that has a bitcoin mine

0:45:15

has something to gain and something to

0:45:17

lose and if you were to actually then

0:45:19

seize the bitcoin mine

0:45:22

right

0:45:23

no the bitcoin miners are coming to you

0:45:25

right right

0:45:26

it's the same as seizing the bitcoin

0:45:28

right if you make bitcoin illegal in

0:45:30

your country and you make mining illegal

0:45:32

then you lose all that but if you make

0:45:33

bitcoin legal or welcome and you make

0:45:35

mining welcome you gain something and

0:45:38

then if you're rational you might

0:45:40

remember that your prosperity came from

0:45:42

the new job you have

0:45:43

and that way you don't want to lose the

0:45:45

job right

0:45:47

if you're if you're jobless and homeless

0:45:51

well first of all there's nothing to

0:45:53

lose and then

0:45:54

you know if someone puts a 37 revolver

0:45:57

in front of you maybe that's more

0:45:58

appealing to use that

0:46:01

right if i if i have nothing i might be

0:46:03

more akin to violence or more more prone

0:46:05

to violence

0:46:07

and if i if i have

0:46:09

you know why do people why do people

0:46:11

resent resort to violence maybe because

0:46:13

it's hopeless

0:46:17

if i feel like things are hopeless i

0:46:17

either kill myself or i kill somebody

0:46:20

bitcoin is hope

0:46:23

and so yeah it is politically

0:46:25

stabilizing

0:46:27

because it's it's a way out for someone

0:46:29

that can't find another way out

0:46:32

and once you adopt bitcoin

0:46:35

you see something that worked and you

0:46:36

have something to lose and you're part

0:46:39

you're part of the multinational bitcoin

0:46:42

network and that is civilizing yeah

0:46:46

in its own special way because

0:46:48

after the mining it draws you into

0:46:50

bitcoin holding and then bitcoin banking

0:46:52

and then bitcoin commerce and bitcoin

0:46:55

philosophy and

0:46:56

and the like right so this i mean the

0:46:59

bitcoin mining

0:47:02

i guess we could see in a broader scope

0:47:03

that digital technology is already

0:47:06

changing the distribution of populations

0:47:09

thanks to remote work and things like

0:47:10

this but bitcoin mining itself sounds

0:47:13

like it could have a pretty significant

0:47:14

impact on where people live you know

0:47:16

you're gonna kind of migrate to these

0:47:19

cheaper energy sources and

0:47:21

set up a politically stable environment

0:47:23

and get to work

0:47:25

yeah bitcoin mining lets you create

0:47:28

an oasis of prosperity

0:47:31

around a standard a stranded energy

0:47:34

source

0:47:35

if you have stranded raw materials

0:47:37

whatever the energy is yeah

0:47:39

you can drop the miner on top of it and

0:47:42

then you can create

0:47:43

prosperity

0:47:45

because

0:47:47

it'll monetize any flavor of energy any

0:47:49

frequency of energy with no bandwidth

0:47:52

and and

0:47:53

minimal infrastructure

0:47:56

around it

0:47:57

all right guys that was episode 14 of

0:48:00

the sailor series

0:48:03

this episode we start to dive into a new

0:48:05

framework that sailors laid out

0:48:08

which causes seven layers of proof of

0:48:10

work security

0:48:13

and i think the easiest way

0:48:15

to start this is with a visualization

0:48:17

actually so

0:48:20

sailor's describing a monetary network

0:48:22

in bitcoin

0:48:26

uh constructs these layers around it and

0:48:30

each layer um

0:48:32

is a point of resistance to disruption i

0:48:36

think is the big key key point here

0:48:39

um and this is somewhat akin to

0:48:41

network effects i think you know i've

0:48:43

talked about this before that

0:48:46

the more

0:48:47

participants there are to a particular

0:48:49

network which is to say the more sides

0:48:51

there are to a marketplace

0:48:53

the more resistant it is to disruption

0:48:56

so the classic example of a one-sided

0:48:58

marketplace

0:49:00

is facebook disrupting myspace right the

0:49:04

facebook provided a superior value

0:49:06

proposition to one cohort of users which

0:49:09

just are the users of the network

0:49:11

and in doing so was able to disrupt

0:49:14

myspace

0:49:15

however when you look at a marketplace

0:49:17

that has more than one cohort cohort of

0:49:21

something like craigslist or ebay where

0:49:23

they have buyers and sellers

0:49:25

these two-sided networks tend to be more

0:49:28

difficult to disrupt because you have to

0:49:31

you have to

0:49:33

provide a superior value proposition for

0:49:35

both buyers and sellers simultaneously

0:49:38

otherwise no one moves so this is

0:49:41

somewhat akin to that um but i think the

0:49:45

sailor puts us together it's almost like

0:49:48

this set of concentric spheres i guess

0:49:51

surrounding bitcoin and each sphere

0:49:53

is protecting it in its own unique way

0:49:55

kind of uh

0:49:57

insulating the integrity of its

0:49:58

marketplace based on the incentives

0:50:01

related to bitcoin in a specific way

0:50:03

and that the net outcome of this is

0:50:05

these seven interlocking spheres that

0:50:08

really protect bitcoin from disruption

0:50:11

and nurture the growth of its network so

0:50:14

this might sound a bit abstract right

0:50:16

now but as we as we go into it i think

0:50:17

it'll become a little more concretized

0:50:21

and the other general theme here i'd

0:50:23

like you to think about as we start to

0:50:24

go through this is that it is the

0:50:27

persistence

0:50:29

of bitcoin so the actual persistence of

0:50:31

its network up time let's say or it's

0:50:33

its availability to sell energy into the

0:50:36

network or to move energy

0:50:38

um through the monetary network

0:50:41

and the certainty that it's affording

0:50:43

market actors right again hard cap of 21

0:50:46

million

0:50:47

can be confiscated inflated stopped

0:50:49

interrupted

0:50:50

um that is actually

0:50:53

in my opinion in my view

0:50:55

forcing

0:50:56

humans to reorganize themselves around

0:51:00

this network so in a very

0:51:02

broad sense we could say that

0:51:05

all of the variation in human affairs

0:51:09

uh and this gets back to something i

0:51:11

discussed earlier it

0:51:12

tends to coalesce around the invariance

0:51:15

you know sailor gave the example of

0:51:17

gravity previously

0:51:19

uh through the socioeconomic lens we

0:51:21

could say gold was this socio-economic

0:51:23

invariant historically that caused

0:51:26

market actors to voluntarily adopt it

0:51:28

and use it

0:51:29

as an apolitical store of value

0:51:33

and bitcoin has just taken that

0:51:35

principle of certainty and persistency

0:51:38

in a monetary network to a radically new

0:51:41

level so that's another way to think

0:51:42

about this

0:51:44

is that uh almost like a stone thrown

0:51:46

into a pond but the stone

0:51:49

representing certainty itself and it's

0:51:51

just propagating out into this into the

0:51:54

field of human action and changing the

0:51:56

way everyone does business right and

0:51:58

it's not like something you can ignore

0:52:00

necessarily

0:52:02

it's something that is so

0:52:05

so fundamental that if you

0:52:08

choose to trade which is to say you

0:52:10

choose to participate in the economy

0:52:12

which is to be anything less than purely

0:52:15

self-sufficient which is pretty much

0:52:17

everyone and you want to optimize for

0:52:20

wealth preservation over time

0:52:23

which is pretty much anyone i don't

0:52:24

think anyone prefers poverty um to

0:52:26

riches

0:52:28

then you have to pay attention to

0:52:29

bitcoin like you you get

0:52:31

sucked into its network

0:52:33

over time

0:52:35

and i think this model that sailor has

0:52:37

provided

0:52:38

in seven layers of proof-of-work

0:52:39

security

0:52:41

really peels back the layers so to speak

0:52:43

on this dynamic

0:52:45

and gives them a very specific

0:52:47

mechanical description of how they work

0:52:51

the first layer and we only got into

0:52:53

three layers in this episode and then

0:52:55

next episode we'll get into uh the last

0:52:57

four so the first layer

0:52:59

sailor went into

0:53:01

is the energy layer

0:53:03

and this is very important and profound

0:53:07

in bitcoin mining

0:53:09

for the first time in human history we

0:53:11

have this

0:53:12

perpetual energy buyer

0:53:14

worldwide

0:53:16

right so anywhere there is a stranded or

0:53:18

underutilized energy source

0:53:22

it can now be alchemized into digital

0:53:24

gold if you will right you can literally

0:53:27

bring a bitcoin miner on site

0:53:30

uh they're very low

0:53:32

bandwidth requirements it just need

0:53:34

needs to be able to generate

0:53:36

hashes to basically participate in the

0:53:39

mining

0:53:40

algorithm

0:53:41

and it can be used it can turn this

0:53:44

excess or stranded energy that otherwise

0:53:46

couldn't be ported

0:53:48

uh well let's say

0:53:50

that otherwise it was uneconomical to

0:53:53

port this energy elsewhere due to its

0:53:56

its geographic location

0:53:58

can now be used

0:54:01

directly monetize that energy which say

0:54:03

just turn that energy into money

0:54:07

and the other big piece here is that if

0:54:09

energy is intermittent

0:54:11

right which is say it's uh the

0:54:12

production of it is volatile like with

0:54:14

wind or solar

0:54:17

bitcoin mining acts as kind of a buffer

0:54:19

for these variable supply energy sources

0:54:22

so if there's a a huge surge in

0:54:24

production and some laxity and demand it

0:54:27

could be you could switch that to uh

0:54:30

bitcoin mining

0:54:31

and you could very quickly

0:54:33

switch back as grid demand changes

0:54:36

um so it's to say that

0:54:39

bitcoin mining works really well with

0:54:41

these interruptable

0:54:42

loads uh in high variation loads and

0:54:45

remote loads so

0:54:47

it's kind of like uh and this is an

0:54:49

example he uses later on that it is

0:54:51

providing this shock absorber

0:54:54

quality where it's actually buffering

0:54:57

the different systems against

0:54:59

uh volatility they would otherwise

0:55:00

experience

0:55:02

and you know the so the analog

0:55:06

example here is aluminum box site

0:55:09

uh and i think this was being done in

0:55:12

honestly it was greenland or iceland i

0:55:13

forget which one but they effectively

0:55:16

uh this surplus of i think it was

0:55:18

geothermal energy but they had no good

0:55:21

way to export it

0:55:25

what they would do instead was uh they

0:55:27

would import

0:55:28

aluminum and actually smelt it which is

0:55:31

a very energy intensive operation

0:55:33

and then they would smelt it with the

0:55:34

local energy and then export the uh

0:55:37

aluminum box site i think was the final

0:55:39

product uh two countries that had demand

0:55:42

for aluminum oxide so what this

0:55:45

this was an analog example of monetizing

0:55:48

stranded energy sources like the

0:55:50

stranded geothermal energy

0:55:52

that for

0:55:54

certain economic reasons couldn't be

0:55:56

transported across power lines easily or

0:55:59

cheaply

0:56:00

could now be aimed at the production of

0:56:03

a hard commodity

0:56:05

that could then be shipped anywhere

0:56:06

worldwide so the aluminum effectively

0:56:08

was serving as an energy battery and

0:56:10

this is a pretty popular example you've

0:56:12

probably heard this one before

0:56:17

the problem of course is that

0:56:17

it was very inefficient overall in that

0:56:20

not only are you mining the aluminum in

0:56:22

one place

0:56:23

shipping it to uh the place with

0:56:26

stranded energy with again icelander

0:56:28

greenland and then they're smelting it

0:56:30

so they're actually adding

0:56:31

the energy as a value input to this

0:56:34

commodity and then shipping it elsewhere

0:56:36

so it was kind of mired in these

0:56:39

logistical costs and transformation

0:56:41

costs in such a way that it didn't

0:56:44

convert the energy into money

0:56:47

at a high

0:56:49

with a high coefficient let's say

0:56:52

so in bitcoin

0:56:54

we have something that requires less

0:56:56

transformations like every time you're

0:56:59

either loading something up to put it

0:57:01

you know to ship it logistically or uh

0:57:04

incurring a transaction cost you're

0:57:05

basically mitigating the efficiency

0:57:08

of monetizing this energy so with

0:57:10

bitcoin we have something that minimizes

0:57:13

these uh these intermediate steps and

0:57:15

allows energy producers anywhere in the

0:57:18

world to essentially directly monetize

0:57:22

their energy sources

0:57:27

and this is

0:57:27

so it has a historical analog so we can

0:57:29

say some things about it

0:57:31

uh but we it is different in that it

0:57:35

it's now being monetized into this

0:57:37

absolutely scarce

0:57:40

token called bitcoin that can be

0:57:42

transported globally 24x7 365

0:57:46

you have final settlement within an hour

0:57:49

you know in theory you could

0:57:52

use a stranded energy to create bitcoin

0:57:54

in one area beam the bitcoin to another

0:57:56

area and use it to buy local energy in a

0:57:59

completely

0:58:01

discontinuous jurisdiction on the other

0:58:03

side of the planet

0:58:04

so it enables

0:58:06

this very low friction

0:58:09

way of

0:58:10

transmitting energy across space and

0:58:12

time so

0:58:14

and we have to be careful of the analogy

0:58:15

here and i'll push it too far

0:58:17

but many have said i think sailor

0:58:20

included that bitcoin functions is

0:58:22

somewhat like an energy battery or a

0:58:23

monetary battery

0:58:25

and it's the first battery that's not

0:58:28

there's no leakage effectively you know

0:58:30

we have slight impedance when we move

0:58:33

across the network in terms of

0:58:34

transaction fees but we know with

0:58:36

absolute certainty there's no unexpected

0:58:39

inflation so there's no leakage unlike

0:58:41

something like fiat currency where

0:58:43

there's just tremendous amounts of

0:58:44

leakage

0:58:45

or even gold where it's

0:58:47

it's low

0:58:48

say two percent a year but it's still

0:58:50

persistent and continuous over time

0:58:54

where we have to be careful the analogy

0:58:55

is that it's a one-way battery or like a

0:58:58

right only battery we can put energy

0:59:00

we can allocate energy into the

0:59:02

production of bitcoin

0:59:04

but you can't shoot the bitcoin

0:59:06

somewhere else in the world where

0:59:07

there's no energy and turn it back into

0:59:09

energy in the local environment there

0:59:11

needs to be a local energy market to

0:59:13

turn your bitcoin back into energy if

0:59:14

that makes sense

0:59:17

so i think that's a very useful analogy

0:59:20

and powerful way to look at it um

0:59:23

hopefully you know other energy

0:59:25

producers in the world

0:59:27

i think they're slowly awakening to this

0:59:29

but it's still

0:59:31

at the fringes to such an extent that

0:59:33

people haven't really come to see the

0:59:35

true implications of what this is going

0:59:37

to do to energy markets worldwide

0:59:41

and one of the great points there's a

0:59:43

lot of implications but one that sailor

0:59:45

brought up i had not thought of before

0:59:48

was that energy producers

0:59:51

becoming

0:59:53

customers of bitcoin mining so they're

0:59:57

selling their energy to bitcoin miners

1:00:00

this is now converting them

1:00:03

into political allies

1:00:05

all right uh here in the u.s we have we

1:00:07

have both regulated and unregulated

1:00:09

energy markets with some of the

1:00:11

regulated

1:00:12

utilities i mean these are very large

1:00:14

companies you know multi-billion dollar

1:00:15

companies

1:00:17

very conservative very old school

1:00:19

um but as they become customers to

1:00:22

bitcoin mining

1:00:23

i think these industries that have very

1:00:26

deep roots um you know it's very

1:00:29

localized right depending on the type of

1:00:31

energy that's being produced but

1:00:33

typically you know oil gas solar

1:00:35

geothermal hydro like these are all

1:00:39

relatively fixed assets let's say so

1:00:42

they're very tied into the local

1:00:44

political

1:00:45

framework because clearly energy is an

1:00:47

indispensable commodity it's like the

1:00:50

ultimate commodity in a way

1:00:52

and so as they become customers of

1:00:54

bitcoin mining they're going to be

1:00:55

learning more about this

1:00:57

uh you know where your money goes your

1:00:58

mind follows so to speak

1:01:02

by virtue of their participation in this

1:01:04

marketplace they will become political

1:01:06

allies

1:01:08

that you know lobby on behalf of bitcoin

1:01:10

call their local regulator to get rules

1:01:13

in place that are favorable to their

1:01:14

long-term capital interest

1:01:16

et cetera so i thought that was

1:01:19

a really important aspect

1:01:21

through which to look at bitcoin and

1:01:23

that this energy layer

1:01:25

it's not just about

1:01:28

thermodynamics and technology and money

1:01:31

there's also this political element to

1:01:37

which is another layer that we actually

1:01:37

revisit um here towards the end of this

1:01:39

episode so

1:01:41

the second layer that sailor brings up

1:01:44

is technology

1:01:51

you know everyone knows

1:01:51

energy goes into the bitcoin network to

1:01:53

secure it right this is the the skin in

1:01:56

the game of miners effectively that

1:01:58

underpins this darwinian or capitalistic

1:02:00

competition

1:02:02

among miners to

1:02:04

obtain transaction fees block subsidies

1:02:07

and participate in network security so

1:02:09

this is like

1:02:10

this optimal alignment of incentives

1:02:12

that satoshi created that really makes

1:02:15

bitcoin bitcoin you know

1:02:18

and what sailor brings up a great point

1:02:20

here that

1:02:22

we all know energy is very important to

1:02:24

the network but what's less obvious is

1:02:27

that over time as bitcoin grows

1:02:30

it's actually the network is rotating

1:02:33

away from energy intensity

1:02:36

say an energy intensive security model

1:02:38

and towards

1:02:40

a technology intensive security model

1:02:43

and this is something i had not thought

1:02:45

about previously either there's this

1:02:49

shift almost occurring so if we think

1:02:51

very early days of bitcoin

1:02:54

people are just mining it on their

1:02:55

computers

1:02:56

uh there's no specialized

1:02:59

semiconductors at this point it was just

1:03:02

you know whatever computational hardware

1:03:04

you had

1:03:05

was pretty much competitive in bitcoin

1:03:07

mining very early days

1:03:09

so it was

1:03:10

mostly a matter of

1:03:12

electricity getting low-cost electricity

1:03:16

such that you could keep your operating

1:03:17

expenses below

1:03:19

the market value of the bitcoin produce

1:03:20

your operating revenues

1:03:22

so we could say in the earliest days of

1:03:24

bitcoin it was almost purely energy

1:03:27

intensive

1:03:28

however as

1:03:30

the asics and semiconductors become more

1:03:32

specialized which would say they become

1:03:34

more narrowly focused

1:03:37

and functionally designed for mining

1:03:38

bitcoin

1:03:39

at the expense of everything else these

1:03:41

are kind of single purpose units uh that

1:03:46

accumulation of hardware

1:03:49

actually starts to represent

1:03:51

more of the energy intensity overall of

1:03:54

mining so another way to think about

1:03:56

this is that

1:03:57

there's a shift occurring from kind of

1:03:59

dynamic energy to static energy

1:04:01

and we could say that the semiconductors

1:04:03

themselves are effectively a form of

1:04:05

frozen energy right this is capital it's

1:04:08

uh it was an energy process energy

1:04:10

intensive process to produce them to

1:04:12

ship them to get them

1:04:15

into position plugged in and uh

1:04:18

producing hashes right so they say is

1:04:21

which is to say competing in the bitcoin

1:04:23

mining network in a way that they are

1:04:25

profitable

1:04:28

but this has effectively

1:04:31

we've we're now capitalizing this energy

1:04:33

cost into these semiconductors

1:04:36

so the technology itself the hardware is

1:04:38

becoming more important

1:04:40

more of a security layer than the energy

1:04:43

expense itself over time as the bitcoin

1:04:46

network proliferates

1:04:49

and a lot of this has to do with that

1:04:51

ratio right where

1:04:53

again these asics are producing hashes

1:04:55

more efficiently so you're getting more

1:04:57

hashes

1:04:58

per energy expenditure

1:05:01

which is in the same way that capital

1:05:03

amplifies the gains on labor right

1:05:06

this technology is becoming

1:05:09

more specialized over time and therefore

1:05:11

more of a

1:05:13

uh overall component of the security

1:05:15

network of bitcoin

1:05:23

and so this is this has a very

1:05:23

interesting effect too that it's drawing

1:05:27

more skin in the game for market actors

1:05:30

because when you start shifting into

1:05:32

technology intensive security model

1:05:34

there's a lot more capital

1:05:37

long-term capital investment necessary

1:05:39

to be competitive so you need to be

1:05:44

you need to have larger and more

1:05:44

sophisticated capital operations versus

1:05:46

just kind of plugging in and

1:05:47

participating in mining when it's

1:05:49

profitable and unplugging when it's not

1:05:51

this fixed cost of capital now needs to

1:05:54

be amortized across more bitcoin mining

1:05:57

and so the network

1:06:00

is actually becoming

1:06:02

more anti-fragile through these hardware

1:06:04

cycles so as each new generation of

1:06:07

hardware comes online that's more

1:06:08

efficient than its predecessors the

1:06:10

predecessor hardware is rolled out into

1:06:13

locations that have cheaper energy

1:06:15

whereas the new generation hardware can

1:06:17

go to higher cost energy markets and

1:06:19

still be profitable because they're

1:06:21

they're producing more hashes um

1:06:23

per unit of energy expended

1:06:26

and so

1:06:28

that's powerful because you're

1:06:30

it's pushing instead of just pushing

1:06:33

older generation hardware into the scrap

1:06:36

yard right it's actually pushing it

1:06:38

into other markets so we're getting more

1:06:40

decentralization from hardware cycle the

1:06:42

hardware cycle we're getting more hash

1:06:45

power overall because you just have more

1:06:47

penetration of the bitcoin mining

1:06:49

network globally

1:06:51

um and then you're ultimately getting

1:06:52

more security so this gets back into

1:06:55

virtuous cycle of of bitcoin mining

1:06:58

which

1:06:58

is uh you know as bitcoin network

1:07:02

becomes more secure bitcoin becomes more

1:07:04

desired as a store of value

1:07:06

as it becomes more desired as a store

1:07:08

value its price goes up as its price

1:07:09

goes up mining becomes more profitable

1:07:12

as mining becomes more profitable more

1:07:14

capex comes into the bitcoin mining

1:07:16

network to secure it

1:07:18

and so on and so forth and this this is

1:07:21

uninterruptible virtuous cycle that is

1:07:25

bitcoin's network proliferation and no

1:07:27

one's figured out how to stop it yet so

1:07:30

i thought this was just another another

1:07:32

good way to look at it and we're kind of

1:07:33

back to that

1:07:35

bitcoin is a microcosm of capitalism

1:07:38

right there has there's this

1:07:40

very competitive game a market called

1:07:42

bitcoin mining

1:07:46

it's it is forcing everyone that's

1:07:48

participating in an economy with money

1:07:51

to kind of

1:07:53

re-evaluate their strategy and that

1:07:55

there's you know on sale went through

1:07:57

countless examples of this last time

1:07:59

square needing to sell um

1:08:02

bitcoin or if a social media platform

1:08:04

incorporated it that other social media

1:08:06

platforms would have to do it so there's

1:08:07

just this

1:08:09

vortex or black hole like

1:08:12

quality to bitcoin that it's it's kind

1:08:14

of radiating

1:08:16

it's pulling all industries and market

1:08:19

actors into its

1:08:25

vortex and forcing them to to basically

1:08:25

be more capitalistic in their approach

1:08:27

if that makes sense so

1:08:28

really interesting stuff um

1:08:31

and it you know to that point you can't

1:08:33

ignore game theory this is not something

1:08:35

you can

1:08:36

turn off or wish away

1:08:38

um it's it's an unstoppable force in the

1:08:41

sense that

1:08:43

all participants in game theory are

1:08:45

operating in their best interest so it's

1:08:46

going to really dictate the direction of

1:08:49

the marketplace over time um

1:08:52

and since bitcoin you know it's kind of

1:08:56

as naval said there's two ways to

1:08:57

organize markets

1:08:59

uh either by

1:09:01

freedom or by force so like by prices or

1:09:04

by coercion kind of thing and since

1:09:06

bitcoin's so resistant to coercion

1:09:08

that i think we're really just seeing

1:09:10

all the free market principles that it

1:09:13

represents

1:09:15

being reinforced and radiated out into

1:09:17

the the broader economy and so

1:09:21

this gets us into the third layer

1:09:24

which is politics right so politics is

1:09:27

that apparatus of coercion or force

1:09:29

in most modern marketplaces

1:09:31

um but with bitcoin

1:09:33

because it's so resistant

1:09:36

there's a different dynamic at play here

1:09:38

and sailor makes the point that

1:09:40

every time a regime is hostile towards

1:09:42

bitcoin mining

1:09:44

you're just creating incentives for

1:09:47

others to be accommodating so you're

1:09:48

basically

1:09:50

all of this

1:09:51

unstoppable

1:09:54

financial incentive to

1:09:56

work with bitcoin and accommodate its

1:09:58

success if a if a politician is drawing

1:10:01

an artificial box around an area saying

1:10:03

we don't want that here you're now

1:10:05

pushing out all the best and brightest

1:10:07

the entrepreneurs the tax base the

1:10:10

wealth all the things that come with

1:10:12

this wave of innovation get pushed out

1:10:15

of that imaginary box and so what you're

1:10:17

basically doing is creating a windfall

1:10:19

opportunity for competing jurisdictions

1:10:21

so this is that

1:10:23

this kind of gets into that sovereign

1:10:24

individual thesis where

1:10:27

nation states are now forced to compete

1:10:30

in the in marketplaces basically as a

1:10:32

result of digital technology because the

1:10:34

coercion is just not as effective

1:10:40

so which is another way to say that you

1:10:40

can't have this

1:10:42

coordinated collusion among states which

1:10:44

we could almost say fiat currency is

1:10:46

that right everyone everyone could

1:10:48

debase their currency because everyone

1:10:49

else was doing it and no

1:10:51

citizens had no other option

1:10:53

um but with the introduction of another

1:10:55

option it's forcing all of these actors

1:10:58

to become more honest in their dealings

1:11:01

and so every time one political regime

1:11:03

pushes bitcoin out they're creating

1:11:05

incentives for others to take them in

1:11:07

this leads to a scramble really

1:11:11

if you just play out if you just game it

1:11:15

political actors will be scrambling to

1:11:17

attract bitcoin miners and their tax

1:11:18

revenues

1:11:19

um and this converts

1:11:22

bitcoin mining

1:11:24

the ones like wherever bitcoin mining is

1:11:27

finds a home right

1:11:30

it's now converting all the stakeholders

1:11:31

related to that mining uh operation into

1:11:36

a political lobbying mechanism which

1:11:38

sailor makes a brilliant point there

1:11:42

you know all of these jurisdictions

1:11:44

today were mired in dut um you're

1:11:47

already seeing this at the fringes a

1:11:49

little bit you see like mayor of miami

1:11:51

and a few states in the us trying to be

1:11:53

uh very accommodating to bitcoin but i

1:11:55

think this is only going to escalate

1:11:58

as the true

1:12:00

insolvency or we could say poor solvency

1:12:03

positions of many of these governments

1:12:04

comes to the surface

1:12:06

and that they're just they're out of

1:12:08

money right they they can't leave any

1:12:10

stone unturned so to speak

1:12:12

uh and it appears to me as sailor said

1:12:15

you know 100 megawatts is worth 300

1:12:17

million dollars a year

1:12:19

these are massive numbers

1:12:21

and is a very large incentive for

1:12:23

political structures that may be hostile

1:12:26

to become accommodating over time

1:12:29

um and the net result

1:12:31

you know sailor said it's a

1:12:33

self-distributing dynamic and

1:12:35

increasingly secure network

1:12:37

so this is where you know i feel like

1:12:39

we're very

1:12:41

in the middle of the unstoppability of

1:12:43

bitcoin at this point when you come to

1:12:45

see the incentives operating in multiple

1:12:47

sides

1:12:48

at multiple layers in multiple ways um

1:12:51

it becomes

1:12:53

very hard to try and

1:12:57

do a do some mental gymnastics into a

1:12:59

situation that that sees it failing

1:13:02

almost because you have

1:13:04

you have the willpower of every

1:13:07

actor that wishes to preserve wealth

1:13:09

aligned with the proliferation of this

1:13:12

network

1:13:14

and so the the other result of this

1:13:16

that's really interesting is that it's a

1:13:18

stabilizing force right we're bringing

1:13:20

stability

1:13:21

to energy markets as a buyer of last

1:13:23

resort

1:13:24

as a monetizer of stranded energy

1:13:27

sources you know as sailor said this

1:13:29

thing can be

1:13:30

bitcoin mining can be an oasis of

1:13:31

prosperity

1:13:33

so anywhere there's cheap energy right

1:13:34

you don't need any other infrastructure

1:13:36

really in place you just need an

1:13:37

internet connection and bitcoin mining

1:13:39

hardware and you can create digital gold

1:13:42

get the digital gold business

1:13:45

this also brings

1:13:47

stability to technology industries as an

1:13:49

insatiable source of demand for

1:13:51

semiconductors

1:13:52

so now all the seasonality and

1:13:54

fluctuations and risks that

1:13:55

semiconductors went through they now

1:13:57

have effectively

1:13:59

a buyer of last resort as well

1:14:02

and the persistence of again back to the

1:14:04

persistence of bitcoin the persistence

1:14:06

of revenue expectations for

1:14:08

semiconductor producers this is going to

1:14:10

lead to

1:14:12

larger and deeper capital investments

1:14:14

right because they just

1:14:16

as the lindy effect of bitcoin takes

1:14:18

more whole more and more hold and people

1:14:21

expect it to be there over time

1:14:24

you can make larger capital investments

1:14:26

based on the certainty of that revenue

1:14:29

and this will lead to again deeper more

1:14:32

complicated capital structures more

1:14:34

investment more roundaboutness of

1:14:36

production which is to say that

1:14:38

we become more efficient in production

1:14:40

we become more aggregate wealth

1:14:42

aggregately wealthy as a result so

1:14:45

a lot of impacts here

1:14:46

uh and then finally which is really

1:14:48

interesting is it

1:14:50

this same mode bitcoin is bringing

1:14:52

stability to political regimes so those

1:14:54

that offer

1:14:55

bitcoin miners the lowest tax

1:14:58

frameworks and the most predictable

1:15:00

legal frameworks they're going to

1:15:01

out-compete those who do not right all

1:15:04

the wealth which again is

1:15:06

hyper-mobile in bitcoin the talent um

1:15:10

the the knowledge the skills the

1:15:12

experience all of these

1:15:14

factors that make an economy vibrant

1:15:19

flow into the jurisdictions where

1:15:21

bitcoin is treated best

1:15:23

and it will relegate those that that

1:15:25

ignore this or resist this into the

1:15:27

economic dust bin effectively so it's

1:15:30

this hyper competitive darwinian

1:15:33

dynamic that bitcoin's bringing to the

1:15:35

geopolitical sphere that makes it

1:15:38

seemingly unstoppable

1:15:43

and you know this could lead to a lot of

1:15:43

things this could lead to

1:15:45

incentives i'm sorry

1:15:47

subsidies for bitcoin mining it would

1:15:49

make sense for states to subsidize these

1:15:51

operations to get them up and running

1:15:52

and attract

1:15:53

um you know local entrepreneurial

1:15:55

networks into the into the fold

1:15:58

uh this is again increasing political

1:16:01

stakeholders skin in the game

1:16:03

so if they start subsidizing these

1:16:04

things clearly they're going to pass

1:16:06

regulations that are favorable to them

1:16:07

they want to make sure that they

1:16:08

preserve the local industry and the tax

1:16:10

base that comes from that

1:16:13

and ultimately

1:16:14

i think if you game it out you could see

1:16:16

bitcoin as being a driver for more

1:16:17

political consensus

1:16:20

and that

1:16:21

you know all of this

1:16:23

gridlock that we see at the federal

1:16:25

level today

1:16:27

when they become when governments become

1:16:29

more accountable to their bottom line

1:16:31

they're much more likely to reach

1:16:34

consensus

1:16:36

improves their financial position and

1:16:38

moves them forward

1:16:41

again largely

1:16:43

uh that path forward i think

1:16:45

necessarily goes through bitcoin mining

1:16:47

and bitcoin production so

1:16:50

you know i my

1:16:52

great hope is that

1:16:54

as a result of this

1:16:56

coercion resistant money emerging and it

1:16:58

forcing all market actors to adapt their

1:17:01

strategies

1:17:02

to be more productive and less

1:17:05

antagonistic because antagonism just

1:17:07

doesn't work as well

1:17:09

that bitcoin

1:17:10

almost

1:17:11

encourages us or incentivizes us to rely

1:17:14

on our reason

1:17:16

right this this

1:17:17

objective distinctively human faculty we

1:17:20

all have human reason

1:17:22

over force right it's almost like maybe

1:17:24

you could say it's simpler bitcoin's

1:17:26

making force unreasonable

1:17:28

so in that in that way it is making

1:17:31

civilization more sustainable over time

1:17:36

uh less prone to

1:17:38

you know booms and busts right and again

1:17:40

the bust typically

1:17:45

the beginning of the bus is typically

1:17:47

the breakdown of the monetary standard

1:17:48

once you've compromised the most

1:17:51

important protocol in a civilization

1:17:53

which is money

1:17:54

that tends to presage

1:17:57

civilizational collapse as we've seen

1:17:59

countless times throughout history

1:18:03

bitcoin acting as the shock absorber in

1:18:05

the energy political and technology

1:18:07

domains

1:18:10

is really exciting frankly and

1:18:15

excited to see where it goes so

1:18:18

i hope you guys enjoyed that that was

1:18:19

episode 14 of the sailor series uh i'll

1:18:23

see you back here again soon as we dive

1:18:25

into the last four's last four layers

1:18:29

of the seven layers of the proof-of-work

1:18:31

security model

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