SaylorCorpus

ICR Conference 2025 Keynote - Michael Saylor

ICR · 2025-01-21 · 53m · View on YouTube →

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thank you very much we'd like everyone

0:04

to take their seats and I know uh people

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are like grabbing lunch and they'll be

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kind of coming in uh over the next few

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minutes but uh Michael sailor is the

0:12

founder and executive chairman of micro

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strategy which as most of you know is a

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publicly traded uh business intelligent

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firm and the holder as of today of

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450,000 Bitcoin at an average cost of

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approximately 62,000 per coin the

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company has allocated over 28 billion to

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their Bitcoin treasury

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strategy Michael's also the founder of

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alarm.com he's a named inventor on over

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48 patents and the author of the book

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The Mobile wave he founded the Sailor

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Academy a nonprofit that has provided

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free education to over 2 million

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students and as we all know he's one of

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the world's leading advocates for the

0:56

Bitcoin standard with dual degrees from

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MIT in Aerospace Engineering in the

1:00

history of science Michael posts his

1:03

views on X as sailor and on his website

1:06

michael.com if you want more information

1:09

and we're very fortunate that he's

1:10

agreed to speak with us today how about

1:12

a warm welcome for Michael

1:14

[Applause]

1:23

sailor thank you uh thanks for

1:23

coming uh I know I took you away from

1:26

probably a nonbox lunch

1:31

but I'll try to make it worth your while

1:34

[Music]

1:35

um everybody in the world every investor

1:38

every executive is facing an economic

1:40

and a technology

1:43

challenge you could specify the economic

1:47

challenges it's very difficult to

1:49

outperform monetary inflation when you

1:51

look at the rate at which the currency

1:54

Supply is

1:55

expanding um most Investments don't

1:58

outperform it you know that the S&P 500

2:02

is to a certain degree the cost of

2:04

capital but all of the safer investment

2:07

and asset classes underperform and even

2:10

though you're getting wealthier nominal

2:12

terms and real terms you're really

2:14

not and if you're a company executive

2:17

and your company isn't growing

2:19

organically 15% a year or more

2:23

institutional investors tend to lose

2:25

interest in you 15% is a hurdle rate and

2:30

uh and when they lose interest your

2:32

liquidity and your stock dries up and

2:34

then the options Market dries up and

2:38

that's a challenge you become in in many

2:40

ways you could be a zombie company my

2:43

company was a zombie company um we got

2:46

to the point where the stock traded $2

2:48

million a day there was no options

2:52

Market uh we were dead money nobody

2:55

tuned into our earnings calls and it

2:57

wasn't clear how we were going to to get

3:00

ahead and and I would say half of the

3:03

Russell 2000 are stuck in that same spot

3:06

if not 90% of all

3:09

companies and here's one of the reasons

3:12

why um the winners in the 21st century

3:16

they're all digital monopolies if you

3:19

have an Investment Portfolio and it

3:21

doesn't include apple and Amazon or

3:23

Facebook or Google or Nvidia or the like

3:26

you're probably not winning it's very

3:28

hard to see how you could be a

3:30

successful investor without some

3:32

exposure to those

3:34

companies and if you look at the rest of

3:38

the S&P normally the S&P is the 500

3:41

Greatest companies in the United

3:44

States 493 of them are fairly boring how

3:49

do you how do you actually compete

3:52

against a digital Monopoly when someone

3:54

has I think Facebook has two billion

3:57

users a day or of a billion customers um

4:03

and when you can ship a product to a

4:04

billion people overnight with a A Punch

4:06

of a button that's an enormous

4:10

Advantage so all of us we struggling

4:14

with this issue how how do you how are

4:16

you going to be a winner when you're not

4:18

one of the seven

4:20

winners um the technology challenge is

4:24

very intertwined with this which is you

4:26

can't win if you miss the next

4:28

technology wave

4:31

you know that there was personal

4:32

Computing and there was the internet and

4:34

there was mobile Computing and now

4:36

there's artificial

4:39

intelligence and I'm here to say that I

4:42

think everybody in the world understands

4:45

artificial intelligence is the next

4:48

technology wave but I think very very

4:51

few people not so many really appreciate

4:54

there's another technology wave taking

4:56

place and it's it's a digital

4:59

transformation of capital it's the it's

5:01

digital Capital it's it's happening

5:03

right in front of people's faces but

5:06

because it's unexpected and it's a

5:08

paradigm shift and it's an inversion of

5:10

everyone's world view they tend to

5:12

dismiss it as

5:14

something random unlikely unlucky

5:19

scary and um I'm here to talk about

5:23

Bitcoin and so bitcoin's the solution to

5:26

the problem it's the solution to the

5:28

economic problem how do you win when

5:30

there's only seven companies that can

5:32

win and it's a solution to the

5:34

technology question how do you get on

5:37

the next technology wave and how do you

5:40

exploit it to the benefit of your

5:42

investors your family your company your

5:51

customers now how do I know Bitcoin is

5:51

the next wave why should you think it's

5:53

the next wave well here's a chart of the

5:57

top 10 largest assets in the world right

6:01

now and so if you look at the 10 uh

6:04

bitcoin's number seven it is the seventh

6:07

largest asset in the world goals number

6:09

one then you've got these Magnificent

6:11

Seven companies Nvidia Apple Microsoft

6:14

Amazon alphabet

6:17

meta and you got Saudia

6:20

ramco and you got a little bit of

6:23

silver but of them the fastest growing

6:26

of these is Bitcoin Bitcoin is growing

6:29

three times faster than Microsoft why is

6:33

it why is it the next wave well it's not

6:37

just the fastest growing asset in the

6:39

world it's the most popular asset in the

6:43

world it's literally the most popular

6:46

asset in the world everyone wants to

6:47

talk about it it's the most

6:49

interesting it's the most digital asset

6:52

in the world right you you you can't

6:55

digitally transform you can't move um

6:58

these other assets at the speed of light

7:01

a million times a second between 8

7:03

billion computers the way you can with

7:05

Bitcoin it's the most useful asset in

7:08

the world if you need a billion dollars

7:10

in five minutes on a Saturday afternoon

7:13

this is the only asset you can

7:15

liquidate right it is it is useful to

7:18

every company on Earth to every person

7:19

on Earth it is global you know these

7:23

other things aren't Global assets with

7:24

the exception of gold so in essence

7:28

Bitcoin is the digit digal gold but but

7:31

you know you can't beam gold between 8

7:33

billion iPhones and gold is a 5,000 year

7:36

old idea and Bitcoin is that idea

7:39

reinvented for the 21st

7:42

century and now I'm going to give you a

7:44

set of suggestions or or a set of

7:47

indicators as to why maybe this is

7:49

something big why it's not just

7:53

random this is Bitcoin versus that asset

7:56

allocation chart and you can see that

7:59

that um it looks hard to find a solution

8:01

when you don't include Bitcoin and when

8:03

you put Bitcoin on the chart it renders

8:05

every other solution

8:06

irrelevant it's like it's pretty clear

8:08

there's one thing that's interesting and

8:10

everything else is just more of the same

8:14

Bitcoin punches a hole into the chart

8:19

60% over the past four

8:22

years and

8:24

um if we zoom into that a little bit

8:27

closer this is as set performance uh

8:31

since micro strategy adopted the Bitcoin

8:33

standard the S&P is uh returning 13% a

8:37

year real estate's 10% a year gold 7% a

8:42

year bonds are minus 5% a year as you

8:45

can see the cost of capital the hurdle

8:47

rate there is 13 the only thing that's

8:49

beating it that's conventional is the

8:51

Magnificent 7 which is a bit more than

8:53

doubling it and then Bitcoin is doubling

8:56

the Magnificent s so one of these things

8:59

things is is is really an

9:03

overwhelming uh winner Bitcoin more than

9:06

four times conventional performance

9:09

let's look out over 14 years it's the

9:11

winter in 11 of 14 years so it's not

9:15

just it's up over the last four years

9:17

it's up more over 10 years 8 years 12

9:21

years here's another slice you can look

9:24

at everything in the world trying to

9:25

find

9:27

something which is more compelling but

9:29

Bitcoin is showing a annualized

9:31

performance of 147% from

9:35

2011 but again you know after Bitcoin

9:38

you just fall to like your best growth

9:40

stock

9:42

idea and

9:45

uh it's not just it's the best

9:47

performing asset it's the best

9:49

performing uncorrelated asset it's got

9:52

the highest sharp ratio it's also got

9:55

the lowest correlation these are these

9:57

are Fidelity numbers so the entire ire

9:59

world is looking for an investment idea

10:02

that's uncorrelated to risk assets you

10:05

know we have entire conferences

10:06

alternative investment conferences and

10:09

we talk about should it be real estate

10:11

should it be natural gas rights should

10:13

it be intellectual property well Bitcoin

10:16

is the global fungible liquid

10:18

alternative

10:20

asset and uh you don't have to believe

10:22

me or look you don't have to understand

10:24

the fundamentals even if you even if you

10:25

don't want to spend a thousand hours

10:27

studying it you can just look at the

10:28

chart published by Fidelity it gives you

10:31

the same

10:33

answer Black Rock announ they launched a

10:36

Bitcoin ETF a year

10:38

ago uh that

10:41

ETF um leaped above

10:45

1,100 ETFs that they sell to be number

10:49

13 in 12 months so that just shows you

10:52

how fast it's

10:54

moving you know blowing past a thousand

10:57

other ETFs but it's more than that um

11:01

that ETF is the most successful ETF

11:04

launch in the history of ETFs and I

11:07

would say if you look at Wall Street

11:08

over 40 years the last big innovation in

11:11

Wall Street was the ETF the idea that

11:14

you could buy spy or you could buy uh a

11:18

portfolio a

11:20

QQQ uh or a diversified portfolio of

11:23

assets that was the big

11:25

idea uh big enough to attract trillions

11:27

of dollars of capital

11:30

and the most successful example of that

11:32

big idea is

11:36

ibit Right which has just been a

11:38

screaming home

11:44

run not only is it run past nearly all

11:44

of the Black Rock ETFs and all the other

11:47

ETFs it's actually outstripped black

11:50

Rock's gold fund which is around forever

11:52

I and it did it in 12

11:55

months right digital gold is better than

11:59

gold uh just like digital photos are

12:01

better than physical photos and digital

12:04

videos are better than your you know

12:07

then your VHS cassettes right it's it's

12:10

not a complicated idea I digitally

12:13

transform something it's a million times

12:15

smarter a million times faster a million

12:18

times more ubiquitous a million times

12:21

you know lighter than the thing that it

12:26

replaced in 2024 10 of the top 20 ETFs

12:30

launch were all based on

12:33

bitcoin right so everybody's cool ideas

12:37

right it's based on bitcoin or some

12:39

derivative of

12:45

Bitcoin uh those spot Bitcoin ETFs they

12:45

are um they're they're compliance

12:48

gateways or or wrappers if I want to buy

12:52

Bitcoin then I have to solve the

12:54

compliance problem the compatibility

12:56

problem the convenience problem and in

13:00

January of 2024 the first ETFs got

13:04

approved in the US to do this this is

13:07

the list of them uh in that 12 months

13:11

they siphoned up $ 109 billion of

13:14

AUM so it gives you a sense of just how

13:16

fast they

13:18

moved um they were a solution to a

13:21

problem right but it's not just a US

13:25

phenomena uh ETFs that are backing

13:28

Bitcoin coin or or a back by Bitcoin are

13:30

popping up every country in the world

13:33

and so you can see they're in Canada

13:35

they're in Sweden they're in Germany

13:37

they're in Singapore they're in

13:39

Switzerland they're in

13:41

Australia right um they solve a

13:44

fundamental issue right uh in some cases

13:47

it solves the issue of reporting tax

13:50

compliance it may solve the issue of

13:51

capital

13:53

controls right you know you're seeing

13:55

ETFs popping up in Hong Kong eventually

13:58

the Chinese will let you own Bitcoin but

14:00

they're more likely to let you own it if

14:02

it's custody in a bank in

14:05

Shanghai right me many uh many countries

14:10

they're not cons they're not trying to

14:12

keep their citizens or their companies

14:14

from getting

14:16

rich they're simply trying to keep the

14:18

capital from flowing out of the company

14:21

or the country so is so it's it's

14:24

totally fine for a billion people to

14:26

make an investment that makes them money

14:28

as long as they keep it in the country

14:30

in question and so these ETFs in many

14:33

cases they're handles or they're

14:34

wrappers but they're um they're also

14:37

just solving the problem of how do you

14:39

be politically

14:41

correct and how do you be harmonious

14:43

with all the with all of The Regulators

14:46

around the

14:53

world wealthy families they're always

14:53

looking for how to diversify their

14:55

assets it's like uh I own a bunch of

14:57

real estate or I own Diversified

14:59

portfolio stocks or I want some all

15:01

other alternative assets well there's 60

15:04

Global billionaires that we know

15:06

publicly are invested in Bitcoin I give

15:08

you a short list but uh the more

15:11

important point is Bitcoin is the

15:13

fastest growing alternative investment

15:15

for high net High net worth individuals

15:18

in the world and it's

15:21

a it's a it's a very straightforward

15:23

powerful

15:25

idea you know I'm going to buy a

15:27

building that's that's buying property

15:30

to diversify myself and get away from

15:34

risk exposure that's great but buildings

15:37

are liquid and they're not

15:40

fungible uh what if I could buy a

15:42

digital building and I could buy it $200

15:44

at a time or $200 million at a time or2

15:47

billion doar at a time and what if it

15:50

offered the same economic property

15:53

rights if it offered the same

15:55

characteristics whether you bought $200

15:57

or $200 million

15:59

of it that's a powerful idea it's a

16:02

fungible idea it's a global idea it's an

16:06

idea people can remember right and it's

16:09

not likely that you can buy the same

16:12

physical assets that Elon Musk and Mark

16:14

Zuckerberg own but you can buy the same

16:17

Bitcoin they own and you've got the same

16:19

rights per pursue to

16:22

them there's s 70 public companies that

16:26

are capitalizing on bitcoin right now

16:28

you're starting to see this

16:30

explode uh companies like simler

16:33

companies like Mara and Riot and and CER

16:37

you know all of them are realizing that

16:40

if they recapitalize on bitcoin they go

16:43

from investing in uh a bond that loses

16:46

10% of its value a year to a Bitcoin

16:49

that gains 40% more value a year it's

16:53

simply flipping of a light switch this

16:55

is a virtuous economic Dynamic it's

16:58

spreading

17:05

you see 70 companies then it'll be 700

17:05

then it'll be 7,000 then it'll be 7,000

17:07

there's 400 million companies in the

17:09

world who doesn't want

17:17

money um those Bitcoin ETFs are

17:17

outperforming all the commodity ETFs so

17:21

I show you every commodity ETF what you

17:23

see is bitcoin's crushing

17:25

Everything Gold is second best

17:29

the rest are just trading

17:31

Vehicles right you can buy some gold and

17:34

you'll get an average performance you

17:36

can buy Bitcoin and get good performance

17:38

everything else is just a trade all

17:40

other Commodities are pretty awful to

17:42

hold for more than a few years you're

17:43

not going to invest your family's life

17:45

savings and natural gas or soybeans for

17:49

100 years and you can probably figure

17:53

why um Bitcoins those ETFs are also

17:56

outperforming the bond portfolios as you

17:58

can see if you're thinking Bitcoin

18:00

versus bonds well you know bonds are all

18:03

fairly lame

18:05

boring

18:07

um right now you're starting to see a

18:09

movement to 1 to 3% allocation you know

18:12

the 6040 Bond portfolio that that's

18:15

going to change right that's not going

18:17

to last much longer uh that 1 to 3% uh

18:22

allocation to bitcoin will eventually

18:24

become a 5 to 10% allocation to bitcoin

18:27

when you start to see conventional

18:29

portfolios with just 1 two 3% allocation

18:32

you know the price of Bitcoin skyrockets

18:35

but when it gets to 5 to 10% allocation

18:37

it's definitely going to be in the

18:42

millions and so if I put Bitcoin up

18:42

against every other ETF what you can see

18:45

is that it's you know it's still

18:47

outperforming them all it's the fastest

18:50

horse in the

18:51

race you can see where black Rock's ibit

18:54

sits on the leaderboard right now but

18:58

you can also see that at the rate that

19:00

it's growing ibit may very well be the

19:03

largest ETF in the world within 10 years

19:05

I I would think it's more likely than

19:07

not based upon the performance

19:09

characteristics of the

19:16

industry uh bitcoin's beating your

19:16

favorite hedge

19:17

fund right uh it is The

19:21

Benchmark um it was up 121% in the last

19:25

year but again when I when I look I'm

19:28

looking at out and I'm saying well we're

19:29

getting 60% a year from Bitcoin like

19:33

show me a hedge fund that's going to

19:34

give me 60% a year over four years you

19:37

know show me someone that's going to

19:39

promise me 30% a year for the next 20

19:41

years and not charge me a

19:44

fee right and give me complete liquidity

19:47

and Redemption it's not easy so you see

19:51

the world's inverting you know

19:54

um and that takes us to the question of

19:57

what is bitcoin well Bitcoin just

19:59

requires a return to First principles

20:01

it's a it's a new form of Technology it

20:04

is it is economic technology I think of

20:07

it as digital

20:09

energy

20:11

but you know if you started with this

20:13

Trope and you said what did Satoshi do

20:16

Satoshi discovered a method to transfer

20:19

value uh without a trusted

20:21

intermediary and people often times

20:24

repeat that but that's the small idea

20:27

it's not the big idea

20:29

yes we transfer a billion dollars from

20:32

point A to point B without a

20:35

bank the big idea is in order to

20:38

transfer value without an intermediary

20:40

you have to store the value without an

20:43

intermediary the big idea is I put the

20:46

billion dollars into

20:48

cyberspace

20:51

forever money and order the big idea is

20:53

we launched a payload into orbit when

20:56

you launch a payload into a ballis

20:58

trajectory it comes back to earth when

21:01

you launch it into orbit it orbits

21:04

forever right when you get to escape

21:06

velocity maybe it's never coming back so

21:09

imagine the idea that I could put a

21:11

billion dollars into a bank in

21:13

cyberspace that would stay there

21:16

untarnished not

21:18

corroding right without being debased

21:22

forever like forever is such a powerful

21:25

idea right it's frictionless it's

21:27

superconducting

21:28

the big idea is store value without an

21:31

intermediary it means you transcend

21:33

Banks you transcend physical laws right

21:37

it this represents a digital

21:38

transformation a capital from financial

21:41

and physical assets to digital pure

21:44

digital like how how much does a book

21:48

weigh if it's the encyclopedia Botanica

21:51

how much does it weigh when is a digital

21:53

encyclopedia branica one of them is a

21:56

billion trillion times

21:59

lighter than the other it's the

22:01

fundamental phase shift and now what's

22:04

that worth well Global wealth is divided

22:07

across a bunch of assets here's a $900

22:09

trillion wealth

22:11

chart people own half those things for

22:14

utility they own buildings to to live in

22:16

or work in and they own cars to drive

22:19

and they own companies to operate but

22:21

the other half of the assets are just

22:23

held as a long-term store of capital you

22:26

bought it because you had money and you

22:28

needed to put the money to work so you

22:30

bought the you have a land bank you

22:32

bought a bunch of land you bought a

22:34

bunch of commercial real estate you

22:36

bought a bunch of

22:38

bonds half of everything is just

22:40

long-term

22:42

capital so if that's what half of

22:45

everything is what's the problem well

22:48

the problem is when you put your money

22:50

your 450 trillion into that long-term

22:52

capto investment you get hit with taxes

22:56

income tax you get hit with wage control

22:58

price controls

23:00

regulations there's a fire in California

23:04

there's a

23:05

hurricane in Florida there's a war in

23:09

Russia and Ukraine there's a currency

23:12

collapse in Egypt there's a bank failure

23:15

Lebanon right these are all the things

23:18

that cause you to lose money if you're

23:20

an investor and you've lived long enough

23:22

you can probably give me 30 40 50 ways

23:25

you lost money most 10ks have 30 40

23:29

pages of risk factors of just ways you

23:31

can lose money there's a lot of ways you

23:33

can lose in the world that's I'm going

23:36

to call it entropy I'm going to call it

23:38

chaos I'm going to call it the passage

23:40

of time your Warehouse just gets older

23:43

it was a good warehouse and 40 years

23:45

later it's not a good Warehouse you have

23:47

to rebuild

23:48

it what's that cost well that cost about

23:52

$1 trillion a year it's 3% of 450

23:56

trillion right it's costing us money to

24:00

store you know I'm going to put a

24:02

billion dollars in your hands and you

24:04

got to go buy up everything you want in

24:07

Asia and hold it a 100 years then play

24:10

all these out and you realize there's

24:12

going to be an entropic lapse there's

24:14

going to be an inefficiency

24:17

there well Bitcoin is an asset without

24:20

that Financial Risk of the currency the

24:22

stock or the bond you're going to buy

24:24

and it doesn't have the physical risk of

24:26

real estate or property because you put

24:28

it in cyberspace it is an orbit it is

24:32

outside of the political domain outside

24:34

of the physical domain outside of a

24:37

currency

24:38

domain and that is and that is a a

24:42

solution to long-term capital so what

24:46

you see is you see smart money

24:48

everywhere in the world smart PE here's

24:51

the big idea of Bitcoin you get to keep

24:55

your

24:56

money that's the idea

24:58

who cares people that live in China and

25:02

Russia and Africa and South America and

25:05

Asia and Europe that want to keep their

25:08

money and so the money is

25:11

Flowing from those long-term capital

25:14

assets from that warehouse from that uh

25:18

currency from that South American

25:21

bond from that bar of

25:29

gold is flowing into

25:29

Bitcoin Bitcoin is digital Capital so I

25:33

would I would submit to you I think the

25:35

greatest digital transformation of the

25:37

21st century more important than digital

25:40

music or digital books or digital video

25:43

or digital education or digital Fillin

25:45

the blank is the digital transformation

25:48

of capital Bitcoin is digital capital

25:54

and if it's digital Capital it's going

25:55

to transform the capital markets

25:59

so imagine your $100 million building I

26:03

give you a $100 million and you own a

26:05

building in

26:07

La okay or put it in Miami or put it in

26:11

any city in the world in

26:14

Istanbul and now digitally transform it

26:17

what happens when you digitally

26:18

transform the100 million building well

26:21

you get rid of all the things that are

26:23

liabilities you get rid of the tax the

26:25

traffic the tenants the torts the

26:27

trouble the weather the corrosion the

26:30

regulator this the

26:33

the the um fact that you can't move it

26:37

and then you add all the things that

26:39

make something more valuable right how

26:41

do you make the building more valuable

26:44

you make it invisible indestructible

26:46

Immortal teleport programmable divisible

26:50

you make it fungible configurable you

26:52

make it volatile these things make the

26:55

building more valuable the other things

26:57

make the building less valuable Bitcoin

27:00

is in essence just that digital

27:03

transformation if you had your1 million

27:06

building in

27:07

Ukraine or you had it in Syria or you

27:10

had it in fill in the blank Venezuela or

27:13

Cuba or

27:15

LA or you had it in the in the path of

27:19

whatever storm or you had it in

27:21

Moscow what's it worth now right and and

27:25

how does it degrade

27:28

digital capital is global

27:31

Capital right this idea of a building

27:34

right it's like we can debate whether or

27:36

not you want your building in New York

27:37

or Miami or LA or San

27:41

Francisco but if I took a if I gave you

27:44

a billion dollars and I dropped you in

27:48

Africa and I said to you okay I want you

27:51

to go buy a mixture of African uh assets

27:55

worth a billion dollars buy anything you

27:57

want buy it in any country buy land buy

28:01

The Bu buy the buildings buy the

28:04

companies buy your favorite African

28:06

currency buy the Egyptian pound buy the

28:09

naira buy the krugger

28:12

Rand buy a concession on a whatever

28:16

Safari buy tents buy mineral rights buy

28:20

it all the catches you have to hold it

28:22

for 100 years in

28:25

Africa what are you going to buy

28:28

and now here's the second question if I

28:30

gave you a choice you can either buy all

28:32

that stuff and be locked in that in that

28:35

investment for a 100 years or you can

28:38

buy digital capital on the Bitcoin

28:40

Network that all the other smart rich

28:42

people own and that you can carry with

28:45

you uh in your pocket or you can zap it

28:48

out of the you know Out of

28:50

Africa and it's in cyers space and it's

28:53

not subject to African political

28:56

jurisdiction and no Warlord AFC is going

28:58

to take it you don't have to trust an

28:59

African

29:05

bank and you you can live in Africa as

29:05

long as you want until you decide you

29:07

want to move so is it even a I mean is

29:11

it even a difficult

29:13

question let me play the question a

29:15

different way I'm going to take all your

29:17

money right now I'm gonna I'm gonna uh

29:20

cast a spell and I'm going to teleport

29:22

it all and I'm going to spread it

29:24

equally across a mixture of Market

29:27

Basket of assets Ina afca and I'm going

29:29

to say hey I played a magic trick on you

29:31

I moved all of your assets into the

29:33

middle of all these countries in Africa

29:35

and now I'm going to give you a a green

29:38

button you can hit the green button and

29:39

move it all

29:42

back or I'm going to give you an orange

29:44

button you can move it to cyberspace or

29:46

you can leave it there and and so when

29:49

people wonder like why is money flowing

29:51

into Bitcoin why is the price going up

29:54

it's not going up randomly it's it's

29:57

going up in the same same way that water

29:59

flows downhill and it's it's going in

30:02

the same way that that capital is always

30:04

fleeing from a less secure situation to

30:08

a more secure

30:10

situation because it's just a natural

30:13

human

30:18

behavior you have a billion dollars in

30:18

Nigeria you can buy a billion in Bitcoin

30:20

but you you cannot buy a billion dollars

30:22

of real estate in New York City and you

30:24

cannot put your billion dollars into JP

30:26

Morgan and so you see on a relative

30:29

basis there's a certain appeal here and

30:32

then here we we can see Bitcoin is

30:36

um it's a revolutionary advance in

30:38

capital preservation everything you own

30:40

in this world probably has a useful life

30:42

of 10 to 100

30:44

years so what if I give you something

30:46

with a useful life of a thousand

30:48

years like when gold inflates a 2% a

30:52

year that means it's got a halflife of

30:54

35 years your capital and gold as a 30 5

30:58

year halflife when something inflates at

31:01

0% a year your capital on that thing has

31:04

a half life of

31:05

forever there's a the difference between

31:07

2% and 0% is I live 35 years I live for

31:12

a billion

31:13

years it's a pretty big difference when

31:16

you compound

31:18

it so this thing we call Bitcoin it's a

31:21

network it's secured by energy it's by

31:25

electrical energy by computer power by

31:27

political Power by economic power it's

31:30

simply put it's the most powerful crypto

31:33

Network in the world has the most

31:35

popular support it has more computer

31:38

power than Amazon or Microsoft could

31:41

muster if they wanted to people say

31:43

What's it back by it's just backed by

31:46

power a lot of power right the political

31:50

power to topple or tip an election which

31:53

is what just happened in the US right

31:56

the computer power that that is is such

31:59

a dense hash wall that every computer on

32:03

Earth turned against it wouldn't Dent

32:05

it um let me switch gears to a 21-year

32:09

Outlook of Bitcoin what do I think's

32:12

going to happen well I've got an open

32:13

source model it's called Bitcoin 24 you

32:16

can Google it it's on GitHub you can

32:18

download this you can plug in all your

32:20

assumptions and create your own

32:22

forecast but I think looking out over

32:25

the next 21 years you know I just I I

32:28

think the money supply the currency

32:30

Supply will continue to grow you're

32:32

going to you're going to continue to see

32:34

Innovation you're going to see equities

32:36

continue to grow gold will gradually

32:39

underperform of course bitcoin's going

32:41

to overperform equities will overperform

32:46

because of AI and

32:48

technology and this is a simple a simple

32:51

view I put fourth in Nashville in July

32:54

and I haven't really changed from it I

32:56

expect the bitcoin's going to go from

32:58

60% AR decelerating to 20% for a blended

33:02

rate of

33:03

29% I think the volatility of Bitcoin

33:06

will go from 60 Vol decelerating to 20

33:09

Vol for a blended Vol of whatever the

33:12

same and I think that you know if you

33:14

look out 20 years it's still going to be

33:16

growing faster than the S&P a bit 50%

33:19

more it's still going to be 50% more

33:21

volatile than the

33:23

S&P but you want a simple view of the

33:26

market you just think here's something

33:28

which is 29% AR for the next 21 years

33:32

targeting $13 million a

33:35

coin and if you look at that against our

33:39

map of wealth it's not that radically

33:41

different um just Bitcoin becomes the

33:44

global monetary index a $280 trillion

33:47

asset class equities will still be

33:49

bigger real estate will still be bigger

33:52

bonds will still be bigger it's just you

33:55

know if you want to get rich you're not

33:56

getting rich investing in

33:58

gold right if you want to stay Rich you

34:01

can probably hold a diversified

34:02

portfolio of real estate and Equity if

34:05

you want to outperform you're going to

34:07

need

34:08

Bitcoin we're entering the era of

34:11

institutional adoption now this 10 years

34:13

this is the Gold Rush

34:15

era right in 24 Bitcoin emerged as a

34:19

viable alternative to bonds and a in a

34:22

corporate portfolio that was the first

34:24

year now you see all these public

34:27

entities that that are holding Bitcoin

34:29

115 different ones so this is

34:32

spreading as I said it's a virus it's

34:34

going to

34:35

accelerate uh there's a wave of

34:37

political support for Bitcoin it's

34:39

surging you can see the entire cabinet

34:41

is pro Bitcoin the White House is pro

34:44

Bitcoin the Senate and the house are pro

34:47

Bitcoin you know you've got a senator uh

34:50

proposing a Bitcoin strategic

34:54

Reserve you've got Larry thinkink

34:56

advocating for Bitcoin on CNBC and I

34:59

just showed you the Black Rock numbers

35:00

they're

35:02

Stellar you've got Donald Trump never

35:05

sell your Bitcoin right it's all you

35:09

need to

35:10

know you've got Senator lumus I

35:13

encourage people to buy and hold I

35:15

encourage them to say Bitcoin for their

35:17

retirement for their

35:19

future you've got Joe Karan debating

35:22

with Mohamad a lot of people that are

35:24

nodding with you because we can deflate

35:26

our way out of some of the step but the

35:28

difference between 2% and 3% compounded

35:31

for the dollar is devastating and and

35:34

you're saying you should buy

35:36

Bitcoin um in 2025 with the first year

35:40

of the crypto

35:41

Renaissance right I think what you're

35:43

going to see is um you'll see

35:45

improvements to the Wall Street ETFs um

35:48

you're going to see fair value

35:49

accounting from fby which will be a big

35:52

boost uh you've got 250 plus pro crypto

35:56

uh Representatives or senators in

35:59

congress I think you'll see the repeal

36:01

of Sab 121 which allows Banks to enter

36:04

the asset class and start to bank

36:06

Bitcoin that's going to be a big deal

36:08

the end of the war in crypto is just a

36:10

big deal and uh I think the arrival of a

36:14

digital assets framework and a bunch of

36:16

Bitcoin standard companies all of these

36:18

things are are in progress process right

36:23

now uh a few words on micro strategy

36:26

we're powered by digital

36:28

Capital what do we do we flipped to the

36:30

Bitcoin standard about four years ago we

36:32

started buying Bitcoin and we've just

36:34

been accumulating every

36:36

quarter 46 48 successive announcements

36:40

we're up to 450,000 Bitcoin as of this

36:48

morning and uh what are we doing what we

36:48

do is is we issue Securities debt

36:52

Securities like convertible bonds or the

36:55

like in order to create Leverage

36:58

we raise permanent capital and then we

37:01

have an equity which is a bit more

37:03

volatile and a bit higher performance

37:05

than Bitcoin we generate The Leverage

37:07

with fixed income instruments which are

37:10

less volatile uh lower performance than

37:13

Bitcoin and on top of our Equity is a

37:16

very vibrant options market and then uh

37:19

and then the fixed income instruments

37:21

offer a different

37:23

opportunity uh for fixed income

37:25

investors you could think of us as like

37:27

a Bitcoin Refinery you know crude oil

37:29

goes in one side and you have like

37:32

kerosene gasoline coming out the other

37:35

side um Bitcoin is just crude Capital 60

37:40

Vol 60 AR the world's full of people

37:42

that that want 15

37:44

ARR and 10v they don't want 6060 so

37:48

we're just stepping down the Bitcoin and

37:51

we're giving people the flavor they want

37:54

uh what's happened well we basically

37:57

almost doubl the performance of Bitcoin

37:59

not quite over the last four years and

38:02

you so you can see how uh the phrase I

38:06

have and I use often is the only thing

38:07

better than Bitcoin is more

38:09

Bitcoin it you can't beat 60% ARR you

38:14

can't beat that except if you borrow

38:16

money at 0% interest and you buy the 60

38:20

AR then you can beat it so we borrow

38:22

money at 0% or 1% interest with

38:25

convertible bonds then we buy something

38:27

going up 60% and that's how we beat

38:30

Bitcoin and you have to have a public

38:32

company with a large permanent Capital

38:35

base in order to lever it so we're using

38:38

our permanent Bitcoin capital in order

38:40

to issue the fixed income securities in

38:42

order to create the

38:44

leverage and that has allowed us to

38:46

outperform every S&P 500 company over

38:49

these four years by a large margin um

38:54

and of course part of the trick is to be

38:56

more volatile we're the most volatile

38:58

company out of the S&P

39:00

500 okay and volatility is thought to be

39:03

a bug we think it's a feature capital is

39:06

thought to be toxic we think it's an

39:08

asset right and so we pursue the

39:11

volatility the volatility gives the

39:13

stock options uh value and that gives

39:16

the convertible bonds value and that's

39:18

how we're able to raise Capital

39:20

quickly right and if you look at what's

39:23

what volatility has done for us it's

39:25

made us one of the the top top 10 uh

39:29

biggest options markets in the S&P

39:31

universe and we're also one of the top

39:33

10 most traded names in the S&P universe

39:37

and the thing on the left is interesting

39:39

but the thing on the right kind of tells

39:41

you the story what's really going on

39:43

here we have the largest options open

39:46

interest as percentage of market cap in

39:48

the entire market and we have the

39:50

highest daily trading volume the most

39:53

liquidity as percentage of market cap in

39:55

Mar in the market another way to say it

39:57

is we're we're running very hot we've

40:00

created a crypto reactor Bitcoin is the

40:04

fuel and conventional wisdom is strip

40:07

volatility from the balance sheet strip

40:09

volatility from the p&l but when you do

40:12

it you destroy the options market and

40:14

you destroy your own

40:16

liquidity right and of course we are

40:18

serving as the institutional Gateway for

40:20

you to short Bitcoin or go long Bitcoin

40:23

with leverage and we're happy for people

40:26

to do either have to be two sides to

40:28

every trade so you can see we're about

40:30

you know not quite 10 times bigger than

40:33

the options market for straight

40:39

Bitcoin you should power your company

40:39

with Bitcoin this is the speech I gave

40:42

to Microsoft I said they should try some

40:44

Bitcoin why because it's the highest

40:46

performing uncorrelated asset a

40:49

corporation can hold on its balance

40:52

sheet right Microsoft's 18% a year uh

40:57

performance versus Bitcoin

40:59

62% bonds minus 5% those are the only

41:03

three numbers you need to see now what

41:04

look what happens

41:06

next if you're Microsoft and you

41:09

generate a 100 billion in cash flow and

41:11

you sweep your cash flows into your own

41:15

stock you underperform Bitcoin by

41:19

97% you basically lose 97% of your gains

41:23

because you're

41:24

buying you're buying a plus 18 instead

41:27

of a plus 62

41:30

right but look at this one if you're

41:33

Microsoft and you put 100 billion

41:35

dollars into US treasury bills it's a

41:38

minus

41:44

99.7% trade it's

41:44

horrific the bonds are

41:46

toxic now anybody that went to Harvard

41:49

Business School knows this but their

41:51

solution is the wrong solution the

41:53

solution is surrender all the money

41:57

throw the money away because the money

41:59

is toxic s show me a rich family that

42:03

came up with the idea of throw all the

42:05

money away to solve their

42:07

problems right if you're going to

42:09

perform in a superior way you're not

42:11

going to do it without digital Capital

42:14

there's Microsoft there's Nvidia that's

42:16

micro strategy in the same time

42:18

period we're not smarter than them and

42:21

we don't work harder than them right

42:24

we're the people building with steel and

42:26

they're building building with

42:29

wood I have a gun they have a bow and

42:32

arrow it's

42:34

technology right look at micro strategy

42:37

versus Microsoft here we have

42:41

effectively the same size options

42:45

market and our stock trades more than

42:48

theirs why because they stripped the

42:51

volatility from the balance sheet and

42:53

they stripped the volatility from the

42:56

p&l because that's what Harvard B School

42:59

classic Finance tells you to do what

43:02

happens when you strip your volatility

43:03

you have a 98% collapse in your options

43:06

Market you have a 99% collapse in

43:09

liquidity and this is masked by the fact

43:11

that they're so large but this is not

43:14

good for them this is not good for

43:16

someone holding 10 billion dollar of

43:18

Microsoft stock it's not as good a

43:21

collateral and it doesn't generate the

43:23

same return this is not what you should

43:25

be aspiring to

43:27

so every company has a choice to

43:31

make cling to the past which is

43:34

conventional I buy treasury bonds I do

43:37

BuyBacks I pay out dividends or embrace

43:41

the future which is I use Bitcoin as

43:44

digital capital a different idea Bitcoin

43:48

buys instead of stock

43:51

BuyBacks the first choice is regression

43:54

you're divesting your earnings yearly

43:56

you're increasing investor risk and

43:58

you're slowing your own growth the

44:01

second choice is progression you're

44:04

investing your earnings back into your

44:06

own business you're decreasing risk and

44:09

you're accelerating

44:11

growth right this is actually Microsoft

44:14

in the past five years they have

44:16

surrendered $200 billion of

44:19

capital just surrendered it right they

44:22

generated 200 billion and and how does

44:24

it help the sholders today it doesn't

44:27

it's gone they literally gave it

44:31

away and what did they do by giving it

44:33

away they an these are the risk factors

44:36

in Microsoft's

44:38

10K not mine theirs they disclose them

44:42

they're amplifying their own risk when

44:45

you're buying your stock back you're

44:48

Levering up your own equity on your own

44:51

risk

44:52

factors how do you get out of that

44:54

vicious cycle right the best way to

44:56

escape the cycle is reverse the process

45:00

and start to invest in a diversified

45:03

uncorrelated highly performing asset so

45:07

Bitcoin is the asset without

45:08

counterparty risk you don't have risk to

45:11

a competitor a country a corporation a

45:13

creditor a culture or currency that's

45:16

the point get rid of the

45:18

risk now now what if you could buy a

45:21

digital Monopoly growing at 60% a year

45:24

at one times

45:26

Revenue and what if that company was

45:28

more profitable than your own company

45:30

would you do it who wouldn't do

45:33

it what if you could keep doing it every

45:36

year

45:39

forever well that's Bitcoin right

45:42

Bitcoin is the universal Perpetual

45:46

profitable merger partner right what

45:49

you're doing is the transformational

45:51

merger but you're doing it with a a

45:53

crypto Monopoly so when you evaluate

45:57

your options you can plug in that same

45:59

model and I did it for Microsoft and I

46:02

looked at their business I looked at

46:03

their cash

46:06

flows right and I looked at what happens

46:08

if they convert their existing assets to

46:10

bitcoin or if they sweep their dividends

46:12

into Bitcoin or they replace their

46:14

BuyBacks with Bitcoin or they just

46:16

borrow a little bit of money cheap to

46:17

buy Bitcoin and what's the result the

46:20

result is if they just convert some of

46:23

their spare cash that make 155 bucks a

46:25

share and if they replace the dividend

46:28

they make $362 a

46:31

share right and if they get rid of the

46:33

BuyBacks

46:34

$477 so it's worth anywhere from $100 to

46:37

$500 a share do they have to change

46:40

their Core Business not at all right the

46:43

other catch is they double the value of

46:46

company right what happens to the market

46:48

cap of the company well status quo is

46:52

nothing

46:53

good that little change is worth a

46:56

trillion dollar

46:58

right if you go to full triple Maxi it's

47:01

trillion right you can just be worth

47:04

five you know8 trillion instead of three

47:06

trillion or whatever what's the downside

47:09

no you just get

47:15

rich okay this is another way to see

47:15

Microsoft 5% of Microsoft's value is

47:18

based upon its tangible assets it's it's

47:22

actual liquid assets right now 95% is

47:25

based upon forward expectations

47:31

when you actually start to reinvest in

47:31

Bitcoin your stock is valued 41% on on

47:35

your assets and only 59% based on

47:39

expectations so conventional wisdom says

47:41

value the company based on forward

47:43

expectations but but you know the

47:45

richest people in the world aren't

47:47

valued based on expectations of how hard

47:49

they're going to work Bernard Arno and

47:51

Jeff Bezos and Elon Musk they're not

47:53

valued based on how hard they're going

47:55

to work they're valued based on what

47:57

they own your family's value based so

48:00

why wouldn't you want to own something

48:03

right Bitcoin is the thing to own so the

48:07

snapshot here is you know you can crank

48:12

the stock price up improve the ARR you

48:15

know the growth rate for the investors

48:17

create trillions of dollars of value all

48:20

you have to do is manage your balance

48:21

sheet differently you're capitalizing on

48:25

bitcoin not capitalizing on

48:28

bonds and I'll just end with some

48:30

observation if it's good for your family

48:32

and good for your portfolio and good for

48:34

your company it's probably good for your

48:36

country why not power your country based

48:38

on bitcoin so this is Senator lum's

48:42

proposal the idea is to buy some Bitcoin

48:45

for the United States actually a million

48:47

Bitcoin over the course of five years

48:50

why because it's a peaceful Equitable

48:53

solution for solving political

48:55

differences it'll actually lay in place

48:58

a foundation for the US to lead lead

49:01

economically and ideologically without

49:04

violence in the 21st

49:06

century it's because you're harnessing

49:09

you're you're assuming economic and

49:10

Technology leadership in the world

49:13

trillions of dollars of money is going

49:15

to flow into this network and you can be

49:18

the primary beneficiary if you're the US

49:21

and you own it the US already has the

49:23

world Reserve currency why wouldn't you

49:26

want to own the world's Reserve Capital

49:28

Network that's what Bitcoin is the

49:30

world's Reserve Capital Network and what

49:33

you're doing when you support it is

49:35

you're attracting the capital from the

49:37

Chinese the Russians the Africans the

49:39

South Americans the Europeans into the

49:42

network all that capital is going to

49:45

flow and we're going to be the

49:48

beneficiaries if you plug that Bitcoin

49:50

24 model in the lumus bill what it does

49:53

is cut the US debt in half over 20 years

49:58

but if you think about the

49:59

Precedence we bought the Louisiana

50:02

Territory for next to nothing $15

50:05

million and then we bought California

50:07

and Mexico and uh and Texas from in in

50:11

the Mexican War and then we bought

50:13

Alaska look at all those

50:16

purchases when we bought Alaska we

50:18

bought a bunch of territory not even

50:19

knowing what it was

50:21

worth and then a hundred years later

50:24

there's a trillion dollars of uh mineral

50:26

rights under underneath it they weren't

50:28

thinking that in

50:30

1867 right and

50:32

so we paid I think 40 million do for

50:36

three quarters of the United States $40

50:40

million if you know where the people are

50:42

going if you know the future California

50:45

what could they possibly do in

50:47

California right we bought California

50:49

for 18 million bucks so Bitcoin is

50:54

simply cyber Manhattan

50:57

all the AIS are going there all the

50:59

global capital is going there all we

51:01

need to do is buy it it's all going to

51:04

arrive so if you think about the

51:06

greatest deal of the 21st century it's

51:09

just buy 20 25% of cyber space when the

51:13

US buys it every company will follow

51:16

every country will follow all the

51:18

capitalists will follow and we end up

51:21

you know in the extreme case the Trump

51:23

Max case you make $81 trillion doar just

51:27

buying the future what you're doing is

51:30

you're tipping you're inverting the

51:33

entire world

51:34

order uh instead of relying upon 20th

51:38

century Capital

51:40

assets that 450 trillion will flow into

51:44

21st century digital assets if you know

51:49

that the world is moving from the 20th

51:51

to the 21st century if you believe in

51:54

the progression of Technology if you

51:56

think that people would rather have a

51:58

billion dollars of Bitcoin than a

52:00

billion dollars of frozen tundra in

52:02

Siberia or natural gas rights in Cuba or

52:06

whatever then you can just buy it now

52:09

you can buy it for next to nothing and

52:12

so that's the logic of the Bitcoin

52:14

strategic reserve for the United States

52:17

and it works for any country it works

52:20

for any company right and and uh I guess

52:24

the best thing I can say about Bitcoin

52:26

is is is it's happening everybody needs

52:30

it nobody can stop it very few people

52:33

understand it and it's just volatile

52:35

enough to be scary enough that if you

52:37

don't do the work and get the conviction

52:39

you'll just stare at it and watch it

52:41

pass you by but I don't really mind the

52:45

volatility because what I say to people

52:47

is if Bitcoin appreciated at 60% a year

52:51

in a perfect exponential with no

52:53

volatility people stupider than me

52:57

richer than me would own it all and I

52:59

would have no opportunity and so I kind

53:02

of like the way it's evolved and um I

53:05

want to thank everybody for your time

53:07

today and just leave you with the

53:08

thought do the right thing for your

53:11

family for the country for your

53:13

investors and adult Bitcoin

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