SaylorCorpus

Michael Saylor Interview: Bitcoin Regulation, Volatility, and Market Structure

Blockware Intelligence · 2021-12-24 · 1h 53m · View on YouTube →

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hey everybody welcome back to another

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very special episode of the block where

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intelligence podcast this week we have

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an extremely special guest michael

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saylor who doesn't even really need an

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introduction at this point as well as

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this week mason joppa our ceo will be

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co-hosting the conversation mr sailor

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thank you so much for your time happy to

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have you on how are you doing

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looking forward to it

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awesome um i just wanted to first start

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with like are you doing anything for the

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holidays

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bitcoin and chill

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giving the gift of bitcoin to everybody

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netflix and

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looking forward to a comfortable holiday

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season

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i first wanted to start with like what

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did you think about the hearing last

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week uh with sbf and brian brooks um i

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forgot for the spokeswoman um

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from from coinbase um what did you think

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of that whole hearing like what were

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kind of the key takeaways from that from

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your perspective and uh did you think it

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was kind of the you know beneficial

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thing for the space

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i think there's a lot of support for the

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entire crypto industry in uh

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in congress in the house and i think

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it's pretty clear there's a lot of

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political support for

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uh for the crypto economy that's the

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number one takeaway it was a fairly

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friendly hearing uh to my mind

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and it just reinforced my views on

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regulation in general

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which are

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i mean every everybody knows we need

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stable coins and stable coins will be

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welcomed into the ecosystem but the

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preference the preference of the

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regulators is insured banks

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the politicians are a bit more flexible

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i think they would

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they'd be happy to

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allow a few other on-ramps but i mean at

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the end of the day it's going to be some

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sort of public

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vehicle where you have um

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transparency and disclosure and

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licensing of the stablecoin

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issuers and there's a little bit of

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tug-of-war about whether it'll be only

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fdic or it'll be

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state chartered

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state chartered banks and money transfer

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agents or some other public

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uh public organization

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if they're deemed as securities right

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then the then the lowest

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the lowest plateau for a security would

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you got to make a disclosure of um of

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the risk related to the uh to the

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ownership of the securities

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and that would be a lower threshold

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requiring an fdic banked issue a

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stablecoin is the highest threshold i

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think

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with regard to you know everything else

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you know it's uh

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defy security tokens and the like i i

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didn't really sense a lot of hostility

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from the politicians with regard to

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anything as far as i could see

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and as i've said before i really think

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the big winner is bitcoin in all these

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because the one thing that's unsaid

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that's that's yet said

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is there really isn't any controversy

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around

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the status of bitcoin as digital

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property

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the status of bitcoin is a property not

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a security

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bitcoin is not a currency it's not a

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security

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it is property

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uh it is not um

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and it is not in and of itself a

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centralized entity

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everything else in the ecosystem either

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looks like a currency and it gets

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regulated you know if it's currency like

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tether or circle

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right then uh

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then there's we're either going to

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regulate it like a security and you're

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going to have to be a public company and

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you're going to have to make full

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disclosures on a quarterly basis that's

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or like a mutual fund that's the best

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you can hope for

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and the more extreme is you need an fdic

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charter license right and then the

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debate will be it can it be a state bank

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or can it be a federally chartered bank

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so we know that about stable coins um

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with regard to all the defy and the

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security tokens i mean they all look

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like their securities and now there's a

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tossing about whether there should be

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light securities regulation or heavier

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securities

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guidelines and

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it's uh it's unclear they didn't right

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define they didn't decide anything there

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uh what they

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what they did uh kind of just generally

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all you uniformly agree on is

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bitcoin is property not to be regis not

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to be regulated by the sec

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or the treasury

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or the cftc

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in any way other than

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just seeing ordinary uh customary and

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ordinary

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expectations around

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transfer taxes proper you know a capital

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gains taxes and

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and classic

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asset transfer

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disclosures at some level

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that's my takeaway i mean generally i

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don't know how you could be anything

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other than bullish about

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about the entire asset class when you

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watch that

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if you're a bitcoiner

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sure and what are your thoughts about

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kind of the evolution of regulation

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around bitcoin moving forward um and

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then i guess like kind of a um you know

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jam pack like

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a side of that question as well is like

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what do you think about the trade-offs

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between sovereignty and regulation

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because obviously regulation is

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something that we're going to have to

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face moving forward with the asset class

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but obviously kind of the you know

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sovereign individual ethos of bitcoin is

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very at the you know

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heart of a lot of the hardcore hoddlers

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of the asset so what do you kind of

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think about some of the uh kind of

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sacrifices that will have to be made in

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that sense moving forward

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um well first of all i think that all

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the regulatory uncertainty right now in

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the political climate revolves around

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crypto exchanges stable coins

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and uh security tokens and d5 exchanges

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and all the yield products and and all

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advanced applications

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right that's where the regulatory

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uncertainty is right all the all the

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back and forth

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about what'll happen and when it will

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happen really relates to digital

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securities digital exchanges

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digital

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currencies

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bitcoin's digital property there aren't

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there we're not really having much in

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the way of serious debates around that

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like no one's questioning whether you

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can take uh personal custody of your

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bitcoin

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right that's not on the table

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and so

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what what i think in general about the

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crypto industry is there's

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there's 20 or 30 pretty powerful

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uh regulatory regimes

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you know japan korea china

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they're all going back and forth and

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they have different various degrees of

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view on this and there's going to be a

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lot of regulatory intervention in the

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crypto economy in general around otc

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trading

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can you trade with leverage

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can you know can you can you have a 20

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to 1 margin loan can i can i trade uh

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without a tax disclosure

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what are the tax disclosures can i trade

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the security token without a securities

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disclosure all that's going to go on for

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the next three to five years i think

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that that's and if you're invested in

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any of those things if

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if you're either in the business of it

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or you're issuing one or you're owning

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then i think

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it's an uncertain regime it's very risky

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very complicated

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and uh and

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there's it's not clear what the answer

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will be other than the fact that the u.s

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will be probably the driver and whatever

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whatever the us decides

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treasury sec cftc that will probably

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drive 80 percent of the direction of the

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rest of the world but not a hundred

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percent

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there's always you know there's always

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going to be a bit of

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diverse diversity there and views

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now with regard to bitcoin and and

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property rights in general

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my view there is i just i think

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bitcoiners angst a lot about this more

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than they need to

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there's like 750 trillion dollars of

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property in this world that's owned by

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non-bitcoin people

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that have lesser rights

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the uh

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the worst case for bitcoin

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like like if you conceive of try to

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figure out what is the worst case for

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bitcoin over the next decade

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the worst case for bitcoin might be

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right now as far as i can see it's like

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if you take custody of all your bitcoin

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off the exchange you have to admit that

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you took it

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okay that that's like you have to say i

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wired

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20 bitcoin

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to myself

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okay and there's a disclosure that's the

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worst case

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and now you have the bitcoin and you

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could have it any of a hundred thousand

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counterparties you can send it anywhere

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in 30 minutes and you've got it on a

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hardware device or you've got it on any

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device okay now i want you to think

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about that worst case

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and now i want you to think about the

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best case

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for the equivalent amount of gold silver

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property

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equity apple stock

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government bonds corporate bonds

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collectibles art

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now tell me is there anything else on

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earth

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that you would rather be holding

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than bitcoin

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that you admitted

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to the government that you hold

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i mean try making your uh building in

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the middle of manhattan disappear in a

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boating accident

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right that's a good idea you know what i

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mean it's not happening so i think that

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by the way try making your yacht

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disappear in a boating accident

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okay the point really is i think that

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bitcoin the bitcoin community is very

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smart

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they're very smart and they're very

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paranoid and to paraphrase andy grove

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only the paranoid survive that's good

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that's why i love them i love them i

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love all the bitcoins right and i i love

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the hodlers and and i really appreciate

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all the thought that goes into

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uh defending the network defending the

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asset class but

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i think from a practical point of view

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right the conclusion you come to is

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every other piece of property everything

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else in the crypto ecosystem everything

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in the non-crypto ecosystem is inferior

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to hold under any

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possible outcome than bitcoin is right

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now so the answer is you ought to just

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buy bitcoin you ought to hold bitcoin

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you ought to tell everybody else hold

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bitcoin and then when you consider

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you know how do you feel about someone

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you know all these things well i mean

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the answer is

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this is a twisty one you know like um

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it turns out that you can fight really

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really hard uh take the extreme

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anarchist libertarian point of view to

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protect all six thousand five hundred

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cryptos

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right they're sh yeah they're all they

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all should i can i should be able to

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create my own dogecoin yo-yo coin it's a

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currency that's a privacy coin that's a

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security that gives yield that i can

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send to anybody right that's the extreme

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libertarian view you could take that

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to protect bitcoin on the other hand you

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might be hurting yourself

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because

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if all those things disappeared tomorrow

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the money would probably flow into

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bitcoin

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so so you see it's a very interesting

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situation i think

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i don't think we have to fear the

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government

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not right now

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like maybe in a decade

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if you look at

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right now

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most of the people concerned about

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regulation in the bitcoin community

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they're extrapolating from an altcoin

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like there's an alt coiner that was

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issued by some group of people

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that are going and they're running to

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the bitcoin community saying you know if

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if the sec regulates us as a security or

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we can't keep doing what whatever we're

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doing then they'll come for you next

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well no

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i don't think they will they won't come

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for us next like

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like if someone's running an illegal

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boiler room pump and dump scheme to

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defraud the general public and the sec

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says you got to stop i don't think

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that's a threat to bitcoin

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right so so i i think that we overreact

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and so and we don't need to overreact i

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don't really see any initiative

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that prevents anybody from owning

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bitcoin as digital property

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right and i think almost if you cloak

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yourself with every other altcoin

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you undermine your case for digital

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property i don't i don't think you

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improve it and i think um

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i think

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we should just come back to the

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observation that the enemy is not the

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government the enemy is property

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the enemy is alternate property if

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there's 750 trillion dollars worth of

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money invested in

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global equities 300 300 billion in debt

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right

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120 billion in global equity

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300 billion in real estate

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all of that stuff has inferior property

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rights to bitcoin

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so all you have to do is just cheerfully

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educate the world as to why they're

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building their ranch land their oil well

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drilling rights

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all of those things all their

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intellectual property is inferior to

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bitcoin

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it's all inferior to bitcoin

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right and and uh and with any

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within any ecosystem if you're in

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venezuela bitcoin is the best property

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in venezuela i don't have an opinion

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about the government in turkey

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bitcoin is the best property in turkey i

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don't have to have an opinion about the

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government

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in argentina bitcoin is the best

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property in argentina in the u.s bitcoin

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is the best property in the u.s in china

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bitcoin is the best property

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right now how do you feel about capital

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controls wage controls price controls

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you know labor controls

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political laws religious laws

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everybody's got stuff that they could

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disagree with

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but if you choose to disagree with all

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those things right

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you're going to be in conflict

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with a lot of people that aren't against

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bitcoin you're just turning them against

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bitcoin right

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right like uh you know when you go to

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an islamic country right bitcoin is

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neither christian nor islamic right like

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you don't really want to get into that

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when you go to any country

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it's not democrat it's not republican

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right

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it's not this or that

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it's just better property than the

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alternative property

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the only place

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i think the only place in the world

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where where

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a person is pro bitcoin

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is in conflict with the government

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is in a true communist regime

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if you're in a regime

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where they where the ethos of the

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government is private property or

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individual ownership of all property

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is illegal

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right there's a few right maybe like

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north korea cuba

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in the uh in the soviet regime in russia

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right in theory no one could own

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anything

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right in that change but but you know

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people can own property in china they

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can own property in russia there are a

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lot of political regimes which are

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different as long as it's legal to own

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property

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then instead of fighting the battle

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like instead of saying i want to topple

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securities law

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or i want to

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i want to change the tax code i want to

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change the security code

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you know i want to change the political

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system i just you know instead of

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fighting that battle

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i think this fight one battle which is

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bitcoin is better property than an acre

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of land

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it's better property than 37 donkeys

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it's better property than a lump of gold

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right is it legal

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to make a decision

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to own

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a hundred donkeys

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instead of a stack of corn instead of an

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acre of land instead of

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a bitcoin

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if it is

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then 99

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of the solution to our problem

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is go find the people that own

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oil wells and own natural gas fields and

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own farmland and own tall buildings and

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cities

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and own too many cars and own stuff

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and convince them

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to sell that stuff or mortgage that

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stuff

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and buy bitcoin

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and and you know how should you do it

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within the system that you live in

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right

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respect the laws and respect the culture

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of the society you live in

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but by all means

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don't invest in a hundred donkeys

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don't invest in a bar of gold

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don't invest

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the government

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the government doesn't have a law that

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says you have to have 100 of your assets

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in the local currency

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right like there aren't very many

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by the way when they get there

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that's kind of like getting close to

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communism you know so they're it's

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possible we'll get to something do you

0:17:55

think we are going there yes i was going

0:17:57

to ask on that oh i don't think we're

0:17:58

going there i think that uh i think that

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we spend a lot of time worrying about

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and i just think it's a waste of time

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and energy i think there's there's a lot

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of fighting about

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like like about who can come up with the

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bigger doomsday scenario than the next

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person

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it's like yeah it's colorful i mean

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it'll get you like some engagement on

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twitter

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but no i i think

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again what's what's the total value of

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all assets in the united states other

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than bitcoin that's called an asset or a

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property right

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isn't that it depends if we're uh

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subtracting out debt from those

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from those the point is the debts

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included

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yeah and there are people that you meet

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every day that own the debt

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and uh and so

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if uh if you're talking to the public

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right i think the battle you want to

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fight

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is to persuade people that

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owning a bitcoin is better than owning a

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corporate bond

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small building

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right

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just uh

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all you're doing is trading up weak

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assets for strong assets

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i think you know and and leave

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leave the politics

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like you we can fight over tax right we

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can but now you're a politician

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like you have an opinion about you know

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how the tax system should work that's

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that's a political decision

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you can fight over currency that's

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political decision

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you know the irony you know what i've

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said before is what's going to happen

0:19:33

as far as i can see is that u.s dollar

0:19:35

is going to run on stable

0:19:37

and when that gets released in size by

0:19:39

an fdic approved bank the stablecoin

0:19:42

business is going to go from 180 billion

0:19:45

to a trillion to 10 trillion

0:19:47

and when that happens

0:19:49

it's going to collapse the currencies of

0:19:51

like 30 countries that will remain

0:19:52

nameless

0:19:54

and when the currencies collapse because

0:19:56

everybody basically sells that local

0:19:58

currency to buy the dollar

0:20:00

wouldn't you rather just have you know

0:20:03

the the mainstream media write stories

0:20:05

about how the state department is

0:20:07

explaining to the ambassador from such

0:20:09

and such that we're sorry that their

0:20:11

citizens have adopted the dollar instead

0:20:13

of the local currency

0:20:15

i mean leave it to the state department

0:20:17

right leave it to the government

0:20:20

right do you really want to be on the

0:20:22

hook like if the choice was

0:20:25

pick a country the us dollarized that

0:20:29

country

0:20:31

uh bitcoin

0:20:33

bitcoin eyes that country

0:20:35

well you know the

0:20:36

at the end of the day i mean i think

0:20:39

the the us government can take care of

0:20:41

itself

0:20:43

right they're not going to arrest the

0:20:44

ambassador from from the us when they

0:20:47

call him to to express their discontent

0:20:50

about the fact that the citizens have

0:20:51

dollarized

0:20:54

you you really want to be the ambassador

0:20:56

of bitcoin and show up and say the same

0:20:58

thing

0:20:59

like my point is you're fighting a

0:21:01

battle 20 years or 30 years early

0:21:05

you don't need to fight will we ever get

0:21:07

to the point where there are no nation

0:21:09

states and there's no

0:21:12

currencies

0:21:13

that are issued by sovereign powers i

0:21:16

it's not really a debate for the next

0:21:18

decade

0:21:19

like this decade

0:21:21

the debate is

0:21:23

is bitcoin better property than all the

0:21:25

other properties in the world and then

0:21:27

and the answer is yeah

0:21:30

and now the question's just well how do

0:21:31

i buy some

0:21:34

yeah and then and your strategy of uh

0:21:36

taking on

0:21:37

debt or trading your alternate assets

0:21:39

for bitcoin is you know very apparent

0:21:41

what are your thoughts on on

0:21:43

interest-bearing products that are paid

0:21:44

out in native uh particularly those that

0:21:47

are coming out that are

0:21:49

non-custodial right where you can

0:21:51

maintain control of your bitcoin and

0:21:54

maintain your keys and you maintain your

0:21:57

bitcoin currency and you can still

0:21:59

receive interest on that i think that's

0:22:00

super intriguing

0:22:02

but to the to the inverse of the

0:22:03

products that exist now where you have

0:22:06

you know store your product with a or

0:22:09

store your your property aka your

0:22:11

bitcoin with a custodian to receive the

0:22:13

interest

0:22:14

do you have any opinions on those

0:22:15

products

0:22:16

yeah well i mean you're describing a lot

0:22:18

of d5 stuff and

0:22:20

my opinion is there's 12 billion dollars

0:22:22

worth of defy hacks in the past two

0:22:24

years

0:22:32

okay so yeah it's a true it's intriguing

0:22:32

but again this is an example of

0:22:35

of i think the perfect becomes the enemy

0:22:37

of the good

0:22:38

in theory it would be nice

0:22:41

if i could take my bitcoin put it into a

0:22:43

decentralized protocol and generate

0:22:45

yield on it

0:22:51

the problem with it is uh technically

0:22:51

it's insecure right you're they're

0:22:53

getting hacked all like three times a

0:22:56

right

0:22:57

like every every few days right yeah

0:22:59

hundreds of millions a week okay so

0:23:02

so that's one problem it's a technical

0:23:04

security problem the second problem is

0:23:07

if you understand securities law

0:23:09

then you understand that they're all

0:23:11

securities

0:23:13

okay if you

0:23:14

when you're actually uh you're doing it

0:23:16

with a staking maybe you could come up

0:23:18

with a way to do it with just pure

0:23:20

bitcoin like i mean the closest thing is

0:23:22

almost like getting some yield on a

0:23:24

lightning note or something but

0:23:26

if you could but but all the approaches

0:23:29

people have solved so far with security

0:23:30

tokens and the security the tokens are

0:23:33

securities which means that you have to

0:23:35

issue them pursuant to a registration

0:23:37

statement if you don't it's illegal

0:23:39

not to mention unethical right

0:23:45

i mean

0:23:45

again this this takes us back to this

0:23:47

issue which is

0:23:48

you live in in the united states

0:23:52

yeah you can go get a yield

0:23:54

if you're if you're a consumer you can

0:23:56

go get a yield um and you're getting it

0:24:01

some are you getting it from a bank or

0:24:04

that where it's got a license or are you

0:24:07

getting it from an unlicensed entity

0:24:10

right if it's a security token that's

0:24:12

its own thing that's you know you're

0:24:13

pretty much trading all coins that are

0:24:15

not licensed and that's i think that's

0:24:18

risky in so many different ways not to

0:24:20

mention the fact that there's 10 000 of

0:24:22

them eventually so which one do you want

0:24:24

to hold for a while so that's that's

0:24:27

speculation

0:24:30

if you're actually just posting

0:24:32

collateral into an unlicensed

0:24:35

yield generator

0:24:37

it doesn't have a license you can get a

0:24:39

yield but the problem is they're not

0:24:40

licensed right so you have lots of

0:24:41

regulatory actions

0:24:43

and then you don't the whole point of

0:24:46

the regulators there is

0:24:49

when you give me your money

0:24:52

and i agree to give you six percent

0:24:54

yield

0:24:55

how do i generate the yield

0:24:58

i have to go and i have to loan it out

0:25:00

to some counterparty now what if i loan

0:25:02

it to some counterparty what do they do

0:25:04

they short it in the market

0:25:06

and then what if they're or they hedge

0:25:08

it they sell covered calls or they they

0:25:11

trade in options and what if uh

0:25:14

what if bitcoin trades within a 20 band

0:25:16

well then you get your yield what if it

0:25:18

trades in a 42 brand

0:25:21

ban well then they get forced liquidated

0:25:23

you get wiped out you lose all your

0:25:24

principle the bank fails okay do you

0:25:27

know that

0:25:28

what kind of risk are you taking right

0:25:33

you're just investing in a hedge fund

0:25:36

but you're investing in a hedge fund

0:25:37

without understanding the strategy of

0:25:39

the hedge fund so

0:25:41

so the problem with that is that you

0:25:43

know ethically

0:25:45

and legally if i'm going to run a hedge

0:25:47

fund and take money from the public i

0:25:49

have an obligation to file a

0:25:51

registration statement and tell

0:25:53

everybody what kind of risk i'm taking

0:25:56

right i mean that's what every public

0:25:58

company does and that's what every

0:25:59

mutual fund does this is the this is

0:26:00

what i'm going to do with your money to

0:26:02

get to get the yield

0:26:04

okay so fine that's what i'm going to do

0:26:07

if you wanted to invest your money in a

0:26:09

yield generating fund and you had that

0:26:12

adequate disclosure then

0:26:14

i don't have a a problem with it i mean

0:26:17

i think that

0:26:18

you've been given

0:26:19

proper disclosure and you bought a

0:26:21

security

0:26:23

and you've taken securities risk

0:26:25

now the problem of course is

0:26:27

you bought a security but there was no

0:26:29

securities disclosure so you're sitting

0:26:32

in this gray zone where technically it

0:26:34

is illegal and the regulators could shut

0:26:36

it down and seize the asset right so

0:26:39

if you're sitting in the middle of that

0:26:41

operation as in do i want to be the

0:26:43

investor waiting to see

0:26:45

how that gets wrapped up

0:26:47

do i want to be on the other side that's

0:26:49

that's just a gray zone

0:26:51

so i wouldn't uh pursue it now i get uh

0:26:55

i get the opposite point of view which

0:26:57

is well i can give my money to jp morgan

0:26:59

and they give me 20 basis points

0:27:01

yeah i get it you've got this really

0:27:03

difficult situation right you have a you

0:27:06

have um one safe zone i can either hold

0:27:09

dollars at no yield or i can all bitcoin

0:27:12

at no yield those are both safe havens

0:27:15

right

0:27:16

it's well understood that you can own

0:27:18

own currency at an fdic

0:27:21

insured bank and it's understood you can

0:27:23

own digital property those are two

0:27:27

obvious clear zones these other zones

0:27:30

you know can i own a stable coin issued

0:27:33

by a non-fdic insured institution and

0:27:36

put it into some contract with some

0:27:38

exchange where they give me some yield

0:27:41

but the exchange doesn't have a license

0:27:43

it's based on a security token that's

0:27:45

issued pursuant to securities law

0:27:48

you know i'm trusting a lot of

0:27:49

counterparties here

0:27:51

but i'm getting a yield right

0:27:53

right you're altcoining everyone

0:27:56

so i like uh

0:27:58

i don't think it's worth the risk right

0:28:00

now because the theoretical yield on

0:28:02

digital property is quite high right

0:28:05

it's a theory i mean

0:28:07

still the 10-year yield on bitcoin is

0:28:09

150 percent even the one-year yield

0:28:11

right now is a hundred percent right so

0:28:13

if you're chasing after five percent

0:28:15

yield or 10 yield

0:28:17

let's say let's say i'm giving you 10

0:28:19

yield you're chasing after another 10

0:28:22

but risking everything and risking a lot

0:28:26

you know do you really want to risk

0:28:27

everything to chase after 10 percent

0:28:31

i don't i think that again like there's

0:28:33

there is a very um

0:28:39

there's an ideological

0:28:39

aspect to bitcoin non-custodial

0:28:43

non-custodial is really important for

0:28:45

one thing for the property the

0:28:47

underlying bitcoin token

0:28:49

but here's here's another point i'd make

0:28:54

the most important innovation in the

0:28:55

century right the thing that's like

0:28:57

maybe the most important innovation in

0:28:59

property in 5 000 years is bitcoin

0:29:02

it's non-custodial decentralized digital

0:29:06

property

0:29:07

that's the innovation

0:29:09

everybody keeps trying to re reapply

0:29:11

this innovation to every other layer

0:29:16

80 percent of the value took place when

0:29:19

we just created the bitcoin if

0:29:22

a centralized entity

0:29:25

the decentralized property

0:29:28

you would have a profound advance

0:29:30

forward so for example if if jp morgan

0:29:33

went and they bought a million bitcoin

0:29:35

tomorrow

0:29:37

you would have a decentralized property

0:29:39

held by a centralized entity

0:29:41

the price of bitcoin would go to 10

0:29:43

million a coin

0:29:45

and every hodler right every bitcoiner

0:29:48

with bitcoin and coal storage everywhere

0:29:50

in the world would have bitcoin worth 10

0:29:56

there's gonna be a hundred thousand

0:29:58

platforms a hundred million companies

0:30:01

there's ten thousand decentralized

0:30:03

crypto currencies or clock i mean things

0:30:06

that people are trying to represent is

0:30:08

decentralized there's all sorts of

0:30:09

non-custodial this any other thing

0:30:12

does any of it matter

0:30:19

nothing matters there's only one thing

0:30:19

in the world that matters which is

0:30:21

bitcoin

0:30:23

right if a government if the government

0:30:24

of russia or the government of saudi

0:30:26

arabia went and decided to buy a million

0:30:28

bitcoin or a hundred thousand bitcoin

0:30:31

five hundred thousand bitcoin if uh if

0:30:33

apple did

0:30:35

you see the whole point is we created a

0:30:38

stable point we created property in

0:30:40

cyberspace for the first time in the

0:30:42

history of the human race now

0:30:45

there's a lot of non-custodial

0:30:47

decentralized things you can do with it

0:30:49

and there many of them are good like if

0:30:51

you're in a hostile regime like if you

0:30:53

live in a communist regime and they're

0:30:55

going to murder you because you have

0:30:57

property then you need peer-to-peer

0:30:58

non-custodial wallets i get it

0:31:01

right

0:31:02

in cuba or north korea

0:31:05

where the government thinks you should

0:31:08

lose your life and lose your freedom

0:31:10

should you own anything

0:31:13

then you need it

0:31:14

but uh

0:31:16

if you live in the united states where

0:31:18

where you have property rights

0:31:21

and you have a legal right to own things

0:31:25

like do you still need all these

0:31:27

non-custodial do you need 10 000

0:31:29

non-custodial crypto networks and

0:31:32

non-custodial everything under the sun

0:31:35

do you need non-custodial decentralized

0:31:37

yield generally do you need

0:31:39

decentralized insurance and

0:31:40

decentralized banking and decentralized

0:31:43

nft this that and the other thing and

0:31:45

it's like and my answer is no

0:31:48

like yeah there there's like this

0:31:50

there's this fascination with it

0:31:53

it's like uh you got a square peg or

0:31:57

people came up with like a

0:31:59

a hammer so everything's a nail

0:32:02

and they just keep they want to use the

0:32:04

hammer on everything

0:32:06

but really there's one thing

0:32:09

which is

0:32:11

the solution to half the problems on

0:32:12

earth one thing bitcoin

0:32:16

and then the next hundred thousand

0:32:18

things is going to be the answer to five

0:32:20

percent of the problems on earth but you

0:32:22

know what the problem is

0:32:23

the next hundred thousand things are

0:32:25

going to be non-compliant

0:32:28

so you you have one thing which is

0:32:29

compliant in in uh the world

0:32:33

in non-com in the socialist and the

0:32:36

capitalist world and a world of property

0:32:38

rights

0:32:39

bitcoin is compliant it is legal to own

0:32:41

property

0:32:43

is it legal you know to do d5

0:32:47

you know yield generation

0:32:49

you know credit default swaps on

0:32:51

decentralized exchanges

0:32:53

you know how about do uh triple

0:32:55

anonymous wash transactions on nfts that

0:32:59

i sold to myself six times with leverage

0:33:01

i mean none of that stuff is legal right

0:33:04

but you know maybe it's legal somewhere

0:33:06

in cyberspace but let's just use the

0:33:08

word compliant it's just you've just

0:33:11

every single thing you're trying to do

0:33:15

when you're trying to d if you're trying

0:33:16

to de-materialize insurance and banking

0:33:19

and art

0:33:21

you know i mean that's what this is

0:33:22

right nft is dematerialized art right

0:33:24

and d5 is dematerialized you know

0:33:27

banking and dematerialized exchanges and

0:33:30

when you're trying to dematerialize all

0:33:32

this other stuff

0:33:34

you're tripping over all these

0:33:35

compliance rails

0:33:38

and uh

0:33:41

and i think that i think the cognitive

0:33:43

mistake

0:33:44

and i i wish i could come up with a

0:33:46

better way to explain it to people the

0:33:48

cognitive mistake that the mistake that

0:33:50

people keep making over and over and

0:33:52

over again

0:33:53

is they think

0:33:55

that because bitcoin needs to be

0:33:56

decentralized

0:33:58

everything that touches it

0:34:00

needs to be decentralized as well

0:34:03

and that and that second thing is that's

0:34:04

just an error

0:34:07

like uh

0:34:09

centralized governments

0:34:11

right uh compliant governments uh public

0:34:14

investors public companies

0:34:18

public institutions centralized agencies

0:34:22

that have uh that are custodial

0:34:26

they all can benefit from bitcoin and

0:34:29

they and all of their engagement

0:34:31

benefits

0:34:32

bitcoin

0:34:34

like this this issue with non-custodial

0:34:36

at the end of the day you're the

0:34:37

custodian

0:34:39

like so i mean there's no such thing

0:34:41

really as non-custodial because a family

0:34:44

the patriarch of the family becomes the

0:34:47

and the beneficiaries are all the family

0:34:49

members so ultimately

0:34:52

you know until we get down to a world of

0:34:54

8 billion individuals that don't trust

0:34:56

each other

0:34:58

right there's a custodian somewhere

0:35:03

and uh

0:35:05

it's not a problem it really isn't

0:35:08

it's not a pro there's one thing that

0:35:10

needs to be non-custodial and the one

0:35:12

thing is bitcoin

0:35:14

like once you've created that one thing

0:35:17

everything else

0:35:20

like you want to generate yield well i

0:35:22

mean the truth is

0:35:24

a company fidelity coinbase jp morgan

0:35:27

goldman sachs

0:35:29

said they could all go to the sec and

0:35:31

they could create a bitcoin yield fund

0:35:34

fidelity could create a bitcoin yield

0:35:35

fund right now anybody in the mutual

0:35:37

fund business

0:35:39

could go and create a bitcoin eel fund

0:35:41

where they basically file a registration

0:35:42

statement and they say look we're going

0:35:44

to hold bitcoin we're going to sell the

0:35:45

volatility on bitcoin we're going to

0:35:47

sell out of the money calls

0:35:49

and we're going to generate effectively

0:35:51

12 yield

0:35:53

and we're going to give up all the

0:35:55

upside over 40 percent and maybe we're

0:35:58

going to color it or not color it so the

0:36:01

volatility is going to go from 80 volt

0:36:03

to 40 volt and the yield is going to go

0:36:05

from zero

0:36:08

eight percent

0:36:10

and over time probably your principal

0:36:13

will appreciate it 30 a year instead of

0:36:16

60 a year

0:36:17

by the way would i buy it no

0:36:20

right because i'd rather have 60 a year

0:36:23

tax deferred

0:36:26

then 30 a year tax deferred and 12

0:36:29

a year taxable because you would end up

0:36:32

in california paying 52 percent of the

0:36:34

yield

0:36:36

so yeah work out in your head right what

0:36:38

do you get you got 35 percent after tax

0:36:41

instead of 60 after tax

0:36:45

and who benefited whoever set up the

0:36:47

mutual fund they scrape one percent fee

0:36:50

or some hedge fund scrapes 2 and twenty

0:36:54

you know two and twenties two percent

0:36:56

management fee twenty percent of the

0:36:57

upside any number of hedge funds will be

0:37:00

happy to basically take two percent of

0:37:02

your principal twenty percent of the

0:37:04

gains and give you a yield fund or yield

0:37:07

vehicle on top of bitcoin

0:37:09

and they could and you and you can do it

0:37:13

in a compliant ethical legal fashion

0:37:16

in the us nothing stopping you from

0:37:18

buying that or getting that product

0:37:20

right and the rules are different in

0:37:22

every other country

0:37:24

and maybe in china the rules are

0:37:25

different again

0:37:27

but you know last i checked you know

0:37:29

bridgewater capital invest in china you

0:37:32

know like ray dalios on television

0:37:34

talking about

0:37:36

all of these things are possible i

0:37:39

i just think

0:37:41

like this is and this is a it sounds

0:37:43

like a bitcoin maximus position but it

0:37:45

isn't quite it's like

0:37:47

i think that the revolutionary

0:37:49

innovation

0:37:51

is digital property in the form of btc

0:37:54

and now

0:37:55

if you want to go do things

0:37:58

the right way to think of it is pair

0:38:00

fidelity with bitcoin and pair

0:38:03

apple with bitcoin and care and pair a

0:38:06

bank with bitcoin and pair

0:38:09

everything on earth

0:38:10

with bitcoin

0:38:12

everything

0:38:13

your insurance po do you have

0:38:15

decentralized non-custodial life

0:38:17

insurance right now

0:38:20

do you want it

0:38:21

when you die who when when they don't

0:38:23

pay your insurance plan when you die who

0:38:25

do your you know

0:38:28

you know you've got an insurance policy

0:38:30

from an anonymous person on twitter and

0:38:32

there's a rug poll and you don't collect

0:38:34

on the policy and who do you complain to

0:38:38

people don't really want

0:38:40

a non-custodial life insurance policy in

0:38:42

the united states at least

0:38:44

there a political sentiment for that if

0:38:46

i walked down the street

0:38:49

and i asked a hundred people would you

0:38:51

like to buy your food you know from

0:38:53

someone you don't know would you like to

0:38:55

buy your life insurance from someone you

0:38:57

don't know

0:38:58

would you like

0:39:00

you know would you figure it out

0:39:03

people are kind of comfortable doing

0:39:05

business with people they know

0:39:10

do you have anxiety about the government

0:39:10

yeah sure i do do you have anxiety about

0:39:12

the future yeah sure i do

0:39:15

but would you like to have uh

0:39:18

cities and countries and companies i

0:39:21

think so

0:39:25

i think that you got some money you have

0:39:27

an opportunity to buy bitcoin you want

0:39:29

to invest in something invest in a

0:39:31

company that's using bitcoin right

0:39:34

you want to live in a country live in a

0:39:36

country that lets you own bitcoin

0:39:39

you want to fix the thing

0:39:41

put some bitcoin in it

0:39:43

like that's

0:39:44

that's a very straightforward view

0:39:46

here's the other view

0:39:47

you want to fix your country let's make

0:39:49

it a dao

0:39:52

let's issue a cup you want to fix your

0:39:53

city let's let's create a city token

0:39:56

let's you want to fix your insurance

0:39:57

policy let's create and you know a defy

0:40:01

insurance thing in cyberspace with

0:40:03

nobody running it

0:40:05

you know like i mean it's you know let's

0:40:07

apply non-custodial decentralized

0:40:10

principles here's the problem you know

0:40:13

as far as i can see like there's been

0:40:15

one successful project called bitcoin

0:40:18

right

0:40:19

now uh there's 6 500 cryptos

0:40:24

name the next 12 that are property right

0:40:26

we can have a debate bitcoin forks but

0:40:29

but you know they would

0:40:31

they would like half the time they might

0:40:33

or might not be able to make the case

0:40:34

now you have 6 000 cryptos that are

0:40:37

projects but but they use the word

0:40:38

project but that's interchangeable with

0:40:40

it's really company

0:40:42

it's a project is venture right they're

0:40:45

all just venture

0:40:46

venture capital investments with project

0:40:49

teams and

0:40:50

in some cases they converted their

0:40:52

company to a foundation

0:40:54

you know but a foundation is a company

0:40:58

you know they're

0:40:59

at the end of the day it's

0:41:02

you know no one's figured out

0:41:05

how to actually do this and and for good

0:41:07

reason

0:41:09

if i wanted to sell life insurance in a

0:41:11

decentralized non-custodial fashion

0:41:15

have you read all the life insurance

0:41:17

laws in every state of the united states

0:41:19

do you know how many laws there are

0:41:20

you'd have to comply with it's a lot of

0:41:24

right

0:41:24

probably hundreds i mean

0:41:27

hundreds of laws

0:41:28

how do you get 17 random developers to

0:41:31

come together to implement 1 000 pages

0:41:35

of intricate life insurance code and

0:41:37

keep it up to date

0:41:39

i mean it doesn't isn't it obvious it's

0:41:41

a daunting impossible prospect

0:41:45

you know what it's like

0:41:47

you want a good a good example look at

0:41:49

sap and oracle and all their accounting

0:41:51

software

0:41:53

when you when you create accounting

0:41:54

software to account for anything the

0:41:56

sale of any product right you have

0:41:58

statutory requirements

0:42:00

you have armies of of programmers

0:42:04

you know when they change the tax code

0:42:05

we have to change the accounting

0:42:06

software right if you pay some if you

0:42:09

withhold 32 instead of 27 on january 1st

0:42:13

right

0:42:14

your company's going to blow itself up

0:42:16

right you either bust your financials or

0:42:18

all your employees come at you with

0:42:20

pitchforks right because you were

0:42:21

through the

0:42:22

yeah you can't run an accounting system

0:42:25

with decentralized non-custodial

0:42:28

code sets

0:42:30

just can't do it right

0:42:32

and so

0:42:35

the idea that uh everything ought to be

0:42:39

open source non-custodial that doesn't

0:42:41

really make sense in fact i give you a

0:42:44

different idea which is

0:42:47

if you look at the world you've got the

0:42:49

crypto where you've got digital

0:42:51

property you've got digital currency

0:42:53

you have uh digital platforms and you

0:42:57

have digital applications

0:42:59

bitcoin's digital property

0:43:01

right so it's the key to it can you

0:43:03

create digital property in non-custodial

0:43:06

decentralized way yeah you can

0:43:09

is it hard yeah there's like a 99

0:43:12

failure rate

0:43:14

right i mean there's a high failure rate

0:43:16

like it's like starting you know it's

0:43:18

like you're a

0:43:20

a boy scout you're starting a campfire

0:43:22

and it's wet outside and there's like a

0:43:24

hundred people trying it and one dude

0:43:27

succeeds and they start the fire and if

0:43:28

you've ever been out camping wet and

0:43:30

cold and one of you started the fire you

0:43:33

know we all run toward the person that

0:43:34

started the fire and we try to bar the

0:43:37

right

0:43:38

and it doesn't always work that way

0:43:41

so it's hard to start a fire

0:43:44

but it's such a simple idea

0:43:47

now go to the other things digital

0:43:48

currency what's the problem the problem

0:43:50

is it's got to be compliant with banking

0:43:53

okay and kyc aml

0:43:57

and what if it isn't it's illegal that's

0:43:59

the problem

0:44:01

right that's the problem it's very

0:44:03

simple so how are you going to stay

0:44:04

compliant we have to keep control of it

0:44:06

right you notice these stable coins they

0:44:08

can actually um

0:44:10

they they can actually seize your tokens

0:44:14

like tether or circle right i mean

0:44:16

they're not non-custodial

0:44:18

right

0:44:19

right the first thing you do if you if

0:44:21

you pull off a defy hack

0:44:23

is you get rid of the tether and the

0:44:25

circle because you because you know that

0:44:27

if you're holding a stable coin then it

0:44:30

could be seized by central authority so

0:44:32

they are central

0:44:34

okay so is there a way to do it without

0:44:37

being centralized not really i mean not

0:44:40

legally like i mean you can create um

0:44:43

[Music]

0:44:44

you can create a

0:44:46

non-custodial stable coin die right so

0:44:50

you could try to do something like that

0:44:53

but then you run into the issue of now

0:44:54

it's a security

0:44:56

so now you it it has to be so simple

0:44:59

that nobody maintains it

0:45:01

well if it's a security then uh uh a

0:45:04

compliant exchange can't trade it

0:45:08

are you following where this is going

0:45:09

like what's the on ramp and the off ramp

0:45:12

right if it's a security that's a that's

0:45:14

a challenge huh so the problem with

0:45:16

currencies is you got to uh you got to

0:45:18

deal with aml kyc

0:45:21

terrorists laws and

0:45:23

and so they're not going to be compliant

0:45:24

unless they're issued by banks

0:45:26

if you're going to be a stable coin that

0:45:28

is a currency so then you go to

0:45:30

platforms you want to be a d5 platform

0:45:33

like eth or whatever

0:45:35

well you're basically an exchange the

0:45:37

problem is there are laws around what

0:45:38

exchanges can do

0:45:40

right you'll be a national securities

0:45:42

exchange

0:45:43

you have to agree with you have to

0:45:45

comply with surveillance requests

0:45:47

you know you have to comply with certain

0:45:49

leverage requirements there's all

0:45:51

there's all sorts there's disclosure

0:45:53

there's tax disclosure requirements etc

0:45:58

now you're back to being compliant

0:46:00

well how do you how can you be compliant

0:46:04

if you're non-custodial

0:46:06

doesn't work so you eventually end up

0:46:08

becoming a company in your security and

0:46:10

you can do it if you're a coinbase

0:46:12

you know you've got a headquarters

0:46:14

try doing it without being a

0:46:15

headquarters becomes problem

0:46:18

and then you got applications while the

0:46:20

application to do what to move property

0:46:23

rights

0:46:24

okay so you just sold an nft and it's my

0:46:27

painting and i own the copyright but you

0:46:30

just sold it so i sue you

0:46:37

you're going to run that platform

0:46:37

what do you think would happen to

0:46:38

youtube

0:46:40

if um

0:46:41

if um the eagles go to youtube or fox

0:46:44

news goes to youtube says look we have

0:46:46

copyright on the television or that

0:46:48

album and you're running it or

0:46:50

or like yo yo

0:46:52

dying is is basically stole my music and

0:46:55

they've uploaded it to youtube and

0:46:57

they're getting paid

0:46:58

per view

0:46:59

right they have to take it down right

0:47:02

if you're gonna be a platform or you

0:47:04

know any kind of application

0:47:10

then if you wanna you have two choices

0:47:10

you can either become

0:47:11

[Music]

0:47:13

non-compliant

0:47:14

non-custodial

0:47:20

good luck with that

0:47:20

but that means that nobody can touch it

0:47:22

right it's got to it's got to run itself

0:47:25

try to figure that one out i don't you

0:47:28

can't really easily do that with

0:47:29

complicated applications in fact bitcoin

0:47:32

did it the way we do it is every 10

0:47:34

minutes you know we do

0:47:36

a few thousand transactions

0:47:38

you think youtube could do it that way

0:47:41

not likely no way yeah

0:47:43

so what you end up doing is you put a

0:47:45

kyc aml gate

0:47:47

it's like youtube could youtube could uh

0:47:50

ignore all the intellectual property

0:47:53

laws in the united states if they didn't

0:47:54

allow united states citizens to use the

0:47:57

platform

0:48:02

right how does that work out for a

0:48:02

business plan

0:48:04

we're just going to prevent everybody

0:48:05

with money in the world that you know

0:48:07

lives in a rich country from using the

0:48:09

platform and the platform moves money

0:48:11

around

0:48:13

run that by me again

0:48:15

challenge

0:48:18

here's the i mean here's the big idea it

0:48:20

may be impossible maybe it's impossible

0:48:23

to do non-custodial decentralized

0:48:25

applications platforms

0:48:27

or currencies

0:48:28

it's quite possible like no one's really

0:48:31

dealing with that elephant in the room

0:48:32

there

0:48:33

it's a it's a beautiful idea

0:48:36

but it's unproven

0:48:38

there's only one thing that's proven

0:48:41

right bitcoin

0:48:43

we have proven that we can create a

0:48:45

non-custodial decentralized digital

0:48:48

asset network which serves as a property

0:48:52

a store of value we've proven that

0:48:56

everything else is a question mark

0:48:59

and there's a lot of

0:49:00

hope right a lot of venturing

0:49:04

what happens

0:49:06

if you're a speculator and if you're a

0:49:07

venture capitalist then you can pursue

0:49:09

that right i mean

0:49:11

airbnb is still illegal

0:49:13

in my hometown i mean still i mean as

0:49:15

far as i know it's illegal to airbnb

0:49:17

your your place in miami beach right

0:49:21

but it's a successful venture i mean

0:49:23

people made money on it

0:49:24

you can even get the company public

0:49:27

right so i

0:49:28

mean you've got that i kind of feel like

0:49:32

it's you know there's more

0:49:34

there's a lot higher stakes with regard

0:49:36

to cryptocurrency

0:49:38

but um

0:49:40

does that mean that uh the payoff is 100

0:49:42

times greater or does that mean that the

0:49:44

regulatory pushback will be 100 times

0:49:46

higher i

0:49:47

i don't know

0:49:50

but i i think that uh

0:49:52

i think that people spend a lot of time

0:49:54

being fascinated with that and they

0:49:56

ought to spend more time figuring out

0:49:57

how to buy more bitcoin

0:49:59

or they ought to spend more time

0:50:01

that people chronically under under

0:50:03

invest in

0:50:05

businesses

0:50:07

that are centralized custodial compliant

0:50:10

businesses that could plug into bitcoin

0:50:17

right like uh

0:50:17

you can make 100 billion dollars if

0:50:19

you're fidelity plugging into bitcoin

0:50:21

harder

0:50:25

so why don't you go figure out how to

0:50:25

sell that to fidelity if you want to

0:50:27

plug bitcoin into apple computer and it

0:50:30

might be worth a trillion dollars

0:50:33

okay but apple's custodial

0:50:36

but apple's compliant

0:50:38

yeah i get it but it's still a trillion

0:50:40

dollar opportunity

0:50:42

but i'm a crypto person i want to go do

0:50:44

decentralized non-compliant

0:50:47

i mean

0:50:48

okay so here's the issue right like

0:50:52

is it going to be purest pure play

0:50:55

cryptos that are going to make all the

0:50:56

money in the next stage or is it going

0:50:59

to be

0:51:00

compliant custodial institutions that

0:51:03

plug into bitcoin that are going to make

0:51:05

all the money in the next decade

0:51:07

obviously i i happen to believe that the

0:51:09

custodial public institutions have more

0:51:12

opportunity

0:51:14

than all of the crypto entrepreneurs do

0:51:17

the crypto entrepreneurs don't want to

0:51:19

think that because

0:51:21

if you don't have a bank and if you're

0:51:22

not apple computer if you don't have a

0:51:24

country

0:51:25

then you can't do that right

0:51:28

you want to create your own country you

0:51:30

want to create your own bank

0:51:31

you want to create your own social

0:51:33

network

0:51:34

if you don't have it okay

0:51:41

it's free world everybody should be able

0:51:41

to do whatever they can do and and

0:51:43

they'll be something good will come out

0:51:44

of that one out of a thousand one out of

0:51:46

ten thousand things

0:51:48

they'll be the instagram or the facebook

0:51:51

that'll just explode

0:51:53

and they'll be

0:51:54

99.9 failure rate and the rest of things

0:51:57

will all crash and burn

0:51:59

and i don't know which one will succeed

0:52:06

hey michael i i wanted to ask you this

0:52:06

uh today we kind of had this back and

0:52:08

forth on twitter talking about the

0:52:09

volatility of bitcoin moving forward

0:52:11

what are your kind of mental framework

0:52:13

what is your mental framework on that

0:52:15

moving forward do you think now that we

0:52:17

have institutions involved you start to

0:52:18

see that dampening um you know in the

0:52:20

future as well as what are your thoughts

0:52:22

on i know you don't you know delve in

0:52:25

too much to price action per se but like

0:52:27

moving forward do you think we kind of

0:52:28

move away from these traditional

0:52:29

four-year cycles we've seen with bitcoin

0:52:31

because we have a new type of market

0:52:33

participant now

0:52:35

well i i mean there's two different

0:52:37

questions like the four-year cycle

0:52:38

question

0:52:40

and then the volatility question let's

0:52:42

deal with them separately let's start

0:52:43

with volatility let's just enumerate all

0:52:45

the sources of volatility

0:52:47

uh bitcoin's volatile because the wash

0:52:50

trade exemption

0:52:51

a fast money hedge fund can buy a

0:52:53

billion dollars of bitcoin at 65 000

0:52:56

if it trades down to 50 000

0:52:59

they can dump it drive the price down to

0:53:01

45 000 they can buy it back the same day

0:53:06

and they can write it back up again

0:53:08

and they can book

0:53:09

what might be a 250 million dollar tax

0:53:13

and carry it forward

0:53:15

and if they have a 40 or 50 tax rate

0:53:18

maybe they just tax loss harvested 125

0:53:21

million dollars by being volatile okay

0:53:24

so that's a source of volatility wash

0:53:26

trade exemption second source of

0:53:28

volatility

0:53:30

all the um all the uh

0:53:33

unregulated defy exchanges

0:53:36

tons of them right uh security tokens

0:53:38

the fact that i can issue a security

0:53:40

token i can issue um

0:53:43

10 million of them

0:53:44

well i can keep 9 million of them i can

0:53:46

put 1 million in the float

0:53:49

i can then lever it up 20 to 1 or more

0:53:53

and i can cross collateralize it into

0:53:55

another token that i might have

0:53:57

and then i can lean on that and then i

0:53:59

can cross-collateralize that to bitcoin

0:54:03

so the 6500 crypto tokens create

0:54:06

volatility for bitcoin

0:54:10

the ethereum platform creates volatility

0:54:12

for bitcoin lots of it if you look at

0:54:14

the trading pattern of eth versus

0:54:15

bitcoin and i don't know if you've done

0:54:17

it you haven't talked much about it you

0:54:19

ought to

0:54:20

they trade minute by minute

0:54:22

will minute by minute like the same

0:54:27

like the same thing so

0:54:29

in the near term

0:54:31

what you what you can

0:54:33

conclude is that the volatility of the

0:54:35

crypto ecosystem

0:54:37

is clearly correlated and

0:54:40

cross-collateralized and driving the

0:54:41

volatility of bitcoin

0:54:49

so offshore exchanges defy exchanges

0:54:49

security tokens 20 to one leverage

0:54:51

hundred to one leverage cross

0:54:53

collateralization

0:54:56

the fact that you could do wash trading

0:54:58

not just by it's not just wash tax

0:55:00

trading right i could do wash trading on

0:55:03

my yoyo dyn platform and i can wash it

0:55:06

13 times and and print that

0:55:10

with leverage and cross collateralize

0:55:12

that to bitcoin and do it

0:55:15

after hours right the 24 7 365 market

0:55:23

all of those things the lack of

0:55:23

transparency the lack of surveillance

0:55:26

agreements all the stuff that the

0:55:28

libertarians

0:55:30

don't want the regulators to do

0:55:32

that the regulators want to do

0:55:35

or what caused the volatility

0:55:37

right um

0:55:39

i think that uh

0:55:41

that if

0:55:44

as the regulation advances

0:55:48

the volatility is going to decrease for

0:55:50

two reasons one

0:55:51

right if you if you can't trade

0:55:57

if you can't trade with 20 tax leverage

0:55:57

or 100x leverage right to be less

0:55:59

volatile

0:56:00

if the wash rule exemption

0:56:02

ends if

0:56:04

if you couldn't just dump the thing and

0:56:06

buy it back the same day

0:56:08

people would hold their loss

0:56:11

right that

0:56:12

that you would start to approach

0:56:15

the way people view like apple stock

0:56:18

like if apple traded down 10 today

0:56:21

i wouldn't necessarily dump it because

0:56:23

i'd have to wait 30 days to buy it back

0:56:25

and my view would be okay i dump it

0:56:28

but then i'll have to buy back at a

0:56:30

higher price

0:56:31

in 30 days and i'm afraid to be out of

0:56:34

the name so

0:56:36

so i think that as the regulators

0:56:39

eliminate excessive leverage and as they

0:56:41

uh normalize the tax treatment and by

0:56:44

the way i'm not just talking about

0:56:45

bitcoin right i mean

0:56:47

we'll talk about tax treatment of all

0:56:48

6500 cryptos

0:56:51

if they normalize that tax treatment

0:56:54

and they eliminate the excessive

0:56:55

leverage and they put in place those

0:56:57

surveillance agreements

0:57:00

and if they if they apply securities law

0:57:04

what would happen if they just uniformly

0:57:06

applied securities law to the crypto

0:57:07

world right now 6 000 cryptos would stop

0:57:10

trading

0:57:12

okay so the near term

0:57:15

near term you go you get more volatility

0:57:17

i think a lot of volatility is being

0:57:19

driven by the fact that if you're

0:57:20

intelligent you realize that a lot of

0:57:22

the security tokens and all the defy

0:57:24

exchanges are going to get

0:57:26

curtailed

0:57:28

it's just a question of how painfully

0:57:30

will they get curtailed how fast

0:57:32

is it going to be a slap on the hand or

0:57:35

is it going to be a truncation

0:57:37

so there's a lot of uncertainty weighing

0:57:39

over the market there and that's

0:57:41

cross-collateralized and that trades

0:57:43

into the bitcoin market cap right that

0:57:46

anxiety

0:57:49

on the other side of it if they fix all

0:57:53

imagine a world where um

0:57:56

bitcoin wasn't collateral for your eth

0:57:58

and dogecoin and shiba coin and your

0:58:01

yoyo coin trades

0:58:03

right

0:58:04

what if the what if the market decoupled

0:58:07

completely

0:58:09

okay it's a

0:58:10

it creates this there's a parade of

0:58:13

wonderful outcomes right which is

0:58:16

as as the market gets regulated as this

0:58:18

as the defy exchanges and the and the

0:58:21

security tokens start to get regulated

0:58:25

then the volatility from those things in

0:58:27

the bitcoin marketplace deteriorates

0:58:30

right the cap what if 95 of the capital

0:58:34

was bitcoin and five percent of the

0:58:35

capital was the altcoins

0:58:38

then you wouldn't have the tail wagging

0:58:39

the dog

0:58:41

right or in this case maybe the dog

0:58:42

wagging the tail right as the case may

0:58:49

so i think that the the the crypto

0:58:51

economy is this very interesting thing

0:58:55

i mean if you want to say good things

0:58:56

about it you would say

0:58:58

it's they're good marketers right all

0:59:01

the entire crypto world crypto exchanges

0:59:03

they market crypto aggressively and they

0:59:06

bring lots of people in the asset class

0:59:09

but the cost the price you pay is like

0:59:11

excessive volatility and

0:59:14

the fact that there's like 37 shiba you

0:59:18

know puppy coins

0:59:20

keeps the big institutions

0:59:23

from getting in in a big way right so

0:59:26

institutional capital that would buy

0:59:27

billions and billions of dollars of

0:59:29

bitcoin and hold it forever

0:59:31

kind of doesn't want to be in the same

0:59:35

party as sheba puppy coin you know

0:59:38

getting tweeted about

0:59:40

right

0:59:43

i think that uh as the as the entire

0:59:46

asset class institutionalizes

0:59:49

and as all of the excessive uh highly

0:59:53

levered deregulated behaviors start to

0:59:56

get curtailed

0:59:58

then the volatility driven by crypto

1:00:02

decreases

1:00:04

and at the same time the amount of

1:00:06

capital flowing from institutions

1:00:08

increases

1:00:10

and the time horizon

1:00:12

stretches out

1:00:14

right as and as the view of this goes

1:00:17

from it's a speculative highly levered

1:00:19

asset

1:00:21

where anything goes to

1:00:23

it's a long-term store of value i'm

1:00:25

going to buy it and hold it for my

1:00:26

family for 30 years

1:00:28

right as we rotate from one stream to

1:00:30

the other extreme the volatility starts

1:00:32

to ameliorate

1:00:34

right where is there not that much

1:00:36

volatility like real real estate

1:00:40

like a building

1:00:44

there's still some right i mean real

1:00:45

estate goes up in value 20

1:00:48

but when you get to real property

1:00:51

you know especially

1:00:53

property which is a long-term store of

1:00:54

value

1:00:56

you know you're not marketing to market

1:00:59

and um

1:01:00

nobody is

1:01:02

nobody is pledging and they're not

1:01:03

trading in and out of real estate with

1:01:06

dogecoin

1:01:08

and yo-yo coin with leverage on saturday

1:01:11

night

1:01:12

so just look at this just look at this

1:01:14

recent move we had right i mean just

1:01:16

like you know if you kind of look at the

1:01:18

the dichotomy of it if you will like it

1:01:20

was pretty much just we had a bunch of

1:01:22

levered longs right it was like friday

1:01:23

night when we had this massive like 25

1:01:26

wipeout there's like a low liquidity

1:01:27

time you know i watched the order books

1:01:29

pretty closely all the bids got pulled

1:01:31

which were clearly spoofed bids right if

1:01:33

we were in like a regular you know a

1:01:34

regulated environment that kind of

1:01:36

behavior would not take place

1:01:39

you can't trade with more than two to

1:01:40

one leverage

1:01:41

in a regulated environment

1:01:43

you see

1:01:45

you take away 90 of the leverage

1:01:53

when uh when bit max had their incident

1:01:53

last year

1:01:55

right when the the ceo was indicted or

1:01:58

the officers weren't indicted

1:02:02

i watched the market and the volatility

1:02:04

the the um the trading volume got cut in

1:02:07

half and the volatility got curtailed by

1:02:10

some dramatic amount

1:02:12

like it correlated very directly

1:02:15

yeah so i think um

1:02:17

that the industry's moving from

1:02:19

entrepreneurial anything goes

1:02:22

unregulated

1:02:23

to institutional

1:02:25

regulated

1:02:28

and that's the maturing of it

1:02:31

and as it moves toward toward

1:02:33

institutional regulation it's going to

1:02:35

be good for bitcoiners right so

1:02:37

the the irony of all this is there's a

1:02:39

there's a lot of people in the community

1:02:40

that are against regulation

1:02:43

but ultimately the regulation is

1:02:45

probably going to be

1:02:46

beneficial in fact i'm almost certain

1:02:48

it's beneficial to bitcoin more so than

1:02:50

anything else

1:02:52

it's not beneficial to a security token

1:02:54

trading offshore without

1:02:56

you know

1:02:57

proper disclosures right

1:02:59

and and a lot of times it's not

1:03:01

beneficial to the entrepreneurs

1:03:04

but it's beneficial to the holders of

1:03:06

bitcoin and it's beneficial to the

1:03:08

institutions and to the governments

1:03:10

and to the civilization

1:03:16

you know i guess

1:03:22

if you wanted an analogy

1:03:22

you could look at how we incorporated uh

1:03:25

or um

1:03:27

electricity

1:03:30

and new building materials elevators

1:03:32

into our cities

1:03:35

you know they're all regulated right i

1:03:37

mean like before you can actually take

1:03:39

on you know get a certificate of

1:03:40

occupancy

1:03:42

the fire marshal shows up and they they

1:03:44

walk around to see if your building's

1:03:45

gonna catch fire why

1:03:47

because the chicago fire

1:03:49

because

1:03:50

if your building burns down the middle

1:03:52

of a city you might take out the entire

1:03:53

city right so why because you represent

1:03:56

a systemic risk to the entire city and

1:03:59

then they check the electricity why

1:04:01

because you might electrocute a

1:04:02

four-year-old right i mean

1:04:05

if you touch you ever touch a you know a

1:04:07

power main like you ever do your own

1:04:10

maintenance in your house cut through

1:04:11

the drywall and touch one of those lines

1:04:13

if you've ever done it it's very

1:04:15

memorable you will never forget the

1:04:17

feeling that you had

1:04:19

but we have this we have these

1:04:21

euphemisms you know or idioms in our

1:04:23

english language and one of them is

1:04:24

shocked

1:04:26

okay i challenge you figure out how many

1:04:29

people that use the word shocked have

1:04:31

ever actually been

1:04:33

shocked i've been shocked

1:04:35

like if you've actually been shocked it

1:04:37

is unforgettable experience it's like

1:04:41

it's it's like the scariest thing that

1:04:43

ever will happen to you

1:04:45

and um

1:04:47

that's why if you want to actually roll

1:04:49

electricity across the entire society

1:04:51

you know some rules matter

1:04:54

same on roads you know like a very

1:04:57

simple role like drive on the right side

1:04:59

of the road and not the left side of the

1:05:00

road and you can't swerve from one of

1:05:02

the other and when you see a red light

1:05:05

if i took away those two rolls the red

1:05:07

light rule and the and the right side of

1:05:09

the road rule

1:05:12

you know

1:05:13

your your traffic

1:05:15

accident rate would go up by orders of

1:05:18

magnitude and the average throughput in

1:05:20

the society would

1:05:22

you know

1:05:23

collapse by a factor of 50.

1:05:25

no one would get anywhere

1:05:27

so you have to have some degree of of

1:05:31

regulation in order for technology to

1:05:34

actually be adopted

1:05:38

i think in this particular case as the

1:05:40

entire crypto economy gets regulated

1:05:42

it'll grow the ecosystem

1:05:46

but what but the big beneficiary will be

1:05:49

institutions that use bitcoin and

1:05:50

bitcoin

1:05:56

and the losers will be would be bitcoins

1:05:57

like the altcoin that wants to be

1:06:00

because all of a sudden there's no

1:06:01

reason for it

1:06:04

right

1:06:05

and then uh and then entrepreneurs that

1:06:08

want to compete with

1:06:10

uh with the institutions

1:06:13

it's like apple computers got a billion

1:06:16

you know more than a billion customers

1:06:19

they could roll out a hardware wallet on

1:06:21

the iphone and they could have a billion

1:06:24

people using it within 36 months would

1:06:26

that be good for bitcoin yes would that

1:06:29

be good for

1:06:31

every company that has a bitcoin

1:06:32

hardware wallet no

1:06:35

right so i think it's pretty important

1:06:37

when you look at all these things to

1:06:38

distinguish between

1:06:40

what's good for bitcoin and a bitcoin

1:06:43

holder

1:06:45

versus what's good for a bitcoin

1:06:47

entrepreneur

1:06:48

and a bitcoin business

1:06:51

versus what's good for the for every

1:06:53

other crypto entrepreneur

1:06:55

and if if you want to

1:06:57

if you draw this concentric ring right

1:07:00

if you're holding a hundred percent pure

1:07:02

bitcoin

1:07:04

then a normalized regulated environment

1:07:07

isn't threatening to you at all right

1:07:09

bitcoins go

1:07:10

if if the united states government

1:07:11

embraced bitcoin regulated at all

1:07:13

bitcoin price would go to 10 million

1:07:15

dollars a coin and if you're just

1:07:16

holding one bitcoin you have 10 million

1:07:18

dollars right

1:07:19

it's very simple

1:07:21

if you're in a pure bitcoin economy

1:07:24

like bitcoin miner

1:07:26

okay is it good for bitcoin miner well

1:07:28

it might be but you wouldn't want to

1:07:29

wake up and find out that the u.s

1:07:31

military is mining bitcoin

1:07:33

because then it wouldn't be good for you

1:07:34

right so so there are some things

1:07:37

that may or may not be good for a

1:07:39

bitcoin miner or bitcoin exchange you're

1:07:41

pure bitcoin though if they basically

1:07:43

regulated

1:07:44

all the other security tokens

1:07:51

then you're fine right pure bitcoin play

1:07:51

you're good no matter what happens in

1:07:53

the rest of the securities and you know

1:07:56

if everybody has to pay their taxes

1:07:58

and if everybody if everybody has to

1:07:59

apply

1:08:00

abide by banking rules and securities

1:08:03

rules and

1:08:05

intellectual property law

1:08:08

and the like and and tort law you're

1:08:11

fine you're a bitcoin business

1:08:14

but um

1:08:16

if you're an entrepreneur and the

1:08:18

institutions join

1:08:20

you're not quite so well off

1:08:23

like a startup for a hardware wallet you

1:08:26

know has to compete against square cash

1:08:29

and square cash app has to compete

1:08:31

against apple

1:08:32

so and apple has compete against google

1:08:34

right so

1:08:37

so there's competitive risk there

1:08:40

depending on what you are

1:08:42

and uh that's why

1:08:44

that's why you know when people

1:08:47

you know they ask for advice i say well

1:08:50

the obvious the the pure safe haven is

1:08:53

own bitcoin as a store of value

1:08:55

and every single time you move out one

1:08:58

concentric circle and put a twist on it

1:09:00

like i'm gonna mine bitcoin i'm gonna

1:09:02

trade bitcoin i'm gonna get yield on

1:09:04

bitcoin i'm going to do other cryptos

1:09:06

i'm going to do decentralized i'm going

1:09:08

to do a hardware to buy something as you

1:09:10

move out i'm going to offer an insurance

1:09:13

plan i'm going to offer a bank savings

1:09:14

account

1:09:15

now you're competing

1:09:17

and you're all you got to you gotta deal

1:09:19

with competition and compliance

1:09:22

right and and there but any of them

1:09:25

either of them can wipe you out right

1:09:27

you could be non-compliant the

1:09:29

competitive and the regulator shut you

1:09:31

or you can be compliant but you're not

1:09:34

competitive

1:09:35

you get shut down

1:09:37

and so

1:09:39

there's concentric rings of complexity

1:09:42

and risk as you go out

1:09:45

and this entire environment you know is

1:09:49

it's evolving week by week month by

1:09:51

month

1:09:52

right now there are a lot of advantages

1:09:55

to be in the pure crypto space because

1:09:58

you've got massive leverage and they're

1:10:00

non-compliant and they can do things

1:10:01

that the

1:10:03

centralized institutions can't do

1:10:07

the issue is can you cross over

1:10:09

and can you grow up

1:10:11

now you can do business there for a

1:10:13

while but at some point

1:10:15

can you get the licenses and become

1:10:17

compliant and can you bring that company

1:10:19

public right

1:10:21

can you uh

1:10:22

can you actually

1:10:28

can you live to enjoy

1:10:28

the gains that you got by being

1:10:30

entrepreneurial and that is

1:10:33

the challenge that everybody has

1:10:37

take a bitcoin mining example

1:10:39

you could have gone to china and you

1:10:41

could have mined bitcoin very profitably

1:10:43

with free electricity

1:10:49

but sometimes when something looks too

1:10:49

good to be true right

1:10:51

if i said will come here and i'll give

1:10:54

you free electricity for the next 10

1:10:56

years because i just want bitcoin miners

1:10:58

to set up in my country or in my state

1:11:01

would you do it

1:11:07

what happens after two years when i just

1:11:07

change my mind and i say well i notice

1:11:09

all the bitcoin miners are making a lot

1:11:11

of money now i want 20 of that or half

1:11:16

right

1:11:17

if if something looks too good to be

1:11:19

true oftentimes it is too good to be

1:11:21

true or at least the proper way to say

1:11:23

it is there's always a risk the risk

1:11:26

with free electricity in china was

1:11:28

there's gonna be a crackdown

1:11:30

and eventually someone is gonna take

1:11:33

offense to that

1:11:35

right and and now you've got all your

1:11:36

equipment stuck in a place where

1:11:39

where the political environment is not

1:11:41

really favorable anymore

1:11:44

so you're an entrepreneur you have these

1:11:46

very interesting challenges

1:11:48

do i do do i do square cash app

1:11:52

which is uh it's custodial wallet and i

1:11:55

only sell bitcoin but i can't do what

1:11:57

you can do with uh

1:11:59

i can't do what binance can do right

1:12:02

i can't do what an offshore crypto

1:12:04

exchange can do i can't give you a yield

1:12:07

on your product i can't give you an

1:12:08

earned product i can't trade dogecoin

1:12:11

okay well they lost a lot of business by

1:12:13

not trading dogecoin and giving yield

1:12:16

right that's the negative but they're

1:12:17

compliant and they have a license that's

1:12:19

the positive

1:12:23

you know you can offer a hundred to one

1:12:25

leverage and trade a thousand things

1:12:27

you'll get a lot more customers and you

1:12:29

can have no kyc

1:12:32

you get a lot more customers but there's

1:12:33

a lot of liability there

1:12:36

now how do you go from one to the other

1:12:37

and what should you do

1:12:39

that's what makes the business very

1:12:41

challenging

1:12:43

right that's why that's why you know you

1:12:46

you really need to think that through

1:12:47

very hard and if you're an investor

1:12:50

you've got to figure out where do you

1:12:51

want your exposure to be

1:12:53

but i think i think the subject we're on

1:12:55

is volatility

1:12:57

bottom line is the industry's

1:12:59

it's it's not very tightly regulated and

1:13:02

it's cross-collateralized

1:13:03

cross-correlated and it's highly

1:13:05

volatile but it's getting less volatile

1:13:07

as it gets more institutionalized and as

1:13:09

it gets more regulated and more

1:13:11

institutionalized it'll get less

1:13:12

volatile and

1:13:14

if you wait

1:13:15

until all of these items are resolved

1:13:19

if you wait until every single crypto

1:13:21

exchange is a national securities

1:13:23

exchange with a surveillance agreement

1:13:24

with the sec and they only trade 12

1:13:26

tokens or six

1:13:28

by the way maybe there's only

1:13:30

one will right

1:13:33

if i said to you name me the 12 cryptos

1:13:36

that are property and not a security

1:13:38

what would be the next 11 you would name

1:13:46

there's 6 500 right

1:13:46

name the next 10.

1:13:52

i wouldn't name any of them like

1:13:54

i would not bet any material amount of

1:13:56

money on anything

1:13:59

uh if you said buy something which

1:14:01

you're confident is property there's

1:14:03

only one thing in the universe in the

1:14:05

digital universe on commonest properties

1:14:07

bitcoin one thing so

1:14:10

what happens if everything else

1:14:11

disappeared and there was bitcoin well

1:14:13

what up the exchanges well i mean the

1:14:15

point is

1:14:24

so if you wait for the volatility to go

1:14:24

away i mean will that happen i don't

1:14:28

the clock forward 10 years and imagine

1:14:30

the entire industry cleans itself up and

1:14:31

they r and they apply a much higher

1:14:33

standard

1:14:35

well presumably bitcoin would be like 5

1:14:37

million or 10 million a coin and

1:14:38

there'll be less volatility but you'll

1:14:40

have missed out on 100x gain

1:14:42

so if you wait for the volatility to go

1:14:46

the price you pay is is you lose the

1:14:49

opportunity

1:14:51

if you go into bitcoin right now you

1:14:53

accept all the volatility that comes

1:14:56

all these things i just laid i named out

1:14:59

or i laid out and the unfortunate

1:15:01

circumstances when the regulator shut

1:15:04

down one security token

1:15:07

and it panics the market is going to

1:15:08

cause volatility and maybe even a down

1:15:10

trade in bitcoin

1:15:12

should it no

1:15:14

it all trade the opposite direction but

1:15:16

sometimes it trades

1:15:18

when there's a risk-off day

1:15:21

everything trades down even though the

1:15:23

most logical thing to do would be to buy

1:15:26

the high quality property and sell the

1:15:28

low quality thing

1:15:30

like if i told you every single security

1:15:32

token every single crypto other than

1:15:34

bitcoins disappearing tomorrow you

1:15:36

should obviously sell them all and buy

1:15:38

bitcoin right

1:15:39

what would happen is everybody would

1:15:40

sell everything

1:15:43

right

1:15:44

they'd sell everything

1:15:45

and then at some point the market would

1:15:47

sort itself out and then they would

1:15:48

realize that there's one safe thing and

1:15:50

they would buy that and that would come

1:15:52

right

1:15:54

so that's what i think about uh

1:15:55

volatility and uh

1:16:02

you know you take uh

1:16:02

you take the good with the bad right the

1:16:04

good is the entire crypto ecosystem is

1:16:07

drawing lots of attention and drawing

1:16:09

lots of capital and recruiting

1:16:11

millions of people every month right

1:16:14

and you can't that's not bad

1:16:16

and they are driving this agenda

1:16:19

so there are a lot of good things

1:16:22

and uh

1:16:23

and the negative is you have to absorb

1:16:25

their volatility

1:16:27

with regard to the four year cycle i

1:16:29

mean i again i don't i don't really

1:16:31

believe in the four year cycle anymore i

1:16:33

think we're beyond it

1:16:35

i think that um

1:16:37

i think that uh the the material change

1:16:40

in the state was when uh companies when

1:16:43

bitcoin miners started coming public

1:16:46

i think i think the entire theory of the

1:16:48

four-year cycle is bitcoin miners are

1:16:50

the primary source of bitcoin supply and

1:16:53

they have to sell bitcoin to pay their

1:16:54

expenses

1:16:55

and every year they get paid half as

1:16:57

much so they have to double the price

1:17:00

it's kind of like this supply side uh

1:17:02

you know thing

1:17:04

but i i don't buy that model i never

1:17:06

bought that model i think that the

1:17:07

reason the price goes up is demand

1:17:10

like when somebody

1:17:12

it's a very simple thought experiment

1:17:14

right if apple bought a hundred billion

1:17:15

dollars worth of bitcoin tomorrow the

1:17:17

price is going to 10 million a coin or

1:17:18

some large amount it doesn't matter what

1:17:20

the miners think

1:17:22

right matters what apple thinks

1:17:25

right it matters what the person that's

1:17:27

on the buy side thinks if there's more

1:17:28

demand to buy than there is supply then

1:17:31

the price is going up when a government

1:17:34

you know if if saudi arabia

1:17:37

decided to buy 25 billion dollars of

1:17:39

bitcoin

1:17:40

and that hits the wire

1:17:42

the price is going up other people are

1:17:44

going to bid against them it's going up

1:17:47

right so the price is driven by adoption

1:17:50

it's driven by technology

1:17:52

it's driven by inflation

1:17:54

and though the the three first order

1:17:57

factors of price are adoption inflation

1:17:59

technology

1:18:01

and to a certain extent the technology

1:18:03

is a driver because it drives adoption

1:18:06

right when apple builds bitcoin wallets

1:18:08

into a billion iphones and google builds

1:18:10

it into six billion android phones

1:18:13

and they plug lightning if lightning got

1:18:16

plugged into android and ios

1:18:19

and you could and you could move money

1:18:21

at the speed of light

1:18:23

and if the us jp morgan issued a stable

1:18:27

coin and if apple supported the stable

1:18:29

dollar in bitcoin

1:18:30

and they deployed it to billions and

1:18:32

billions of people

1:18:34

prices going up

1:18:36

right because it because of technology

1:18:38

yeah because of adoption

1:18:42

and if the inflation rate is 40

1:18:44

in argentina or 80 in some country

1:18:48

everybody with an iphone or an android

1:18:50

phone is flipping all of their currency

1:18:52

dollars and they're going to think about

1:18:54

it they're going to flip the dollars to

1:18:55

bitcoin

1:18:57

and the price is going up

1:18:58

so the price is going to be a function

1:19:01

of technology and inflation and adoption

1:19:05

and uh

1:19:06

and the second order effect

1:19:09

the the theoretical austrian economics

1:19:11

driver for price is going to be

1:19:13

productivity of the economy

1:19:15

that adopts bitcoin as its reserve asset

1:19:19

right

1:19:20

like for example if there were 100 micro

1:19:23

strategies

1:19:24

microstrategy generates a hundred

1:19:25

thousand hundred million dollars a year

1:19:27

in cash flow

1:19:32

okay well so we buy a hundred million

1:19:32

dollars worth of bitcoin every year

1:19:34

because we generate 100 million in cash

1:19:36

if there were 10 of us that's a billion

1:19:38

of bitcoin a year if there's 100 of us

1:19:40

there's 10 billion in bitcoin a year if

1:19:42

we grow our cash flows 10

1:19:44

right that

1:19:46

that 10 billion a year becomes 11

1:19:48

billion the next year if we grow our

1:19:50

cash flows by another five percent

1:19:52

becomes 11.5

1:19:54

billion dollars or 11 point whatever

1:19:56

right so productivity is the second

1:19:58

order factor

1:20:00

uh all the productivity of everyone

1:20:01

that's adopted bitcoin as their primary

1:20:03

reserve asset but that's but that's not

1:20:06

nearly as powerful as the first order

1:20:08

factors right inflation technology

1:20:11

and adoption

1:20:13

and adoption is kind of like marketing

1:20:16

but mark that but what could drive

1:20:18

adoption

1:20:19

the government says bitcoin is property

1:20:22

these hundred thousand these hundred all

1:20:24

coins are securities

1:20:26

that would drive adoption

1:20:31

like uh for example

1:20:31

uh if you go on twitter right now

1:20:35

if you want to do a little experiment uh

1:20:38

go on twitter right now look at my

1:20:40

profile and look at a tweet i replied to

1:20:43

cash app

1:20:45

and cash app said you can now send stock

1:20:47

or bitcoin

1:20:49

as a holiday gift

1:20:51

and i said great um

1:20:53

would you give cash

1:20:55

11 of the people said they'd give cash

1:20:57

would you give stock three percent so

1:21:00

they would gift stock would you give

1:21:02

bitcoin

1:21:03

right 86 percent

1:21:06

and there's uh a lot of votes on that

1:21:09

thousand votes

1:21:11

okay what does that mean

1:21:13

that means that people don't want to

1:21:14

give securities william

1:21:17

if the token is a security it's going to

1:21:20

be in the three percent apple's this

1:21:22

for example what's a better security

1:21:24

apple google or yo-yo coin

1:21:29

right i mean what would you rather have

1:21:31

facebook apple google twitter

1:21:34

dogecoin puppycoin the third

1:21:38

the answer is of course you you really

1:21:40

would rather have the digital monopoly

1:21:42

security so then why are people moving

1:21:44

puppy coin around

1:21:46

because it's not deemed a security it's

1:21:48

like getting treated somewhere between

1:21:49

currency and a property right now our

1:21:51

currency and yeah and a token

1:21:54

and they're not really abiding by

1:21:56

currency law and they're not applying by

1:21:57

security law but it's but but as soon as

1:21:59

you reclassify those things as a as a

1:22:02

currency or as a security

1:22:05

then you're going to see a lurch

1:22:08

20x preference

1:22:10

for bitcoin

1:22:12

so regulation will actually drive

1:22:15

adoption of bitcoin you see

1:22:17

because right now there's confusion

1:22:19

about which of the thousand things i

1:22:21

should gift

1:22:22

as a holiday gift but you see there's no

1:22:25

confusion right here look at my screen

1:22:28

like people have a view toward cash it's

1:22:31

like okay i'll send you some digital

1:22:33

dollars

1:22:34

if i can

1:22:36

not for long and they have a view toward

1:22:37

toward property properties better 10x

1:22:40

better 9x better

1:22:42

and their view towards security

1:22:43

securities are risky

1:22:46

why are they risky because people

1:22:48

control them

1:22:49

rightfully so securities are risky and

1:22:51

they're competitive and there's 10 000

1:22:53

different securities

1:22:57

before you're having is like

1:22:59

it it was important before you had these

1:23:01

dynamics maybe it was never super

1:23:03

important i don't know i don't really

1:23:05

care i don't think it really matters i

1:23:07

think that what really matters here is

1:23:09

account mason you you might have an

1:23:11

opinion like i count 16 or 17 publicly

1:23:14

traded bitcoin miners by the end of the

1:23:16

year there's probably more

1:23:18

maybe there's 20. do you have a do you

1:23:20

have any

1:23:21

off-the-cuff idea of how many publicly

1:23:23

traded bitcoin mining companies are

1:23:26

yeah i mean i think it's around that

1:23:27

number and and there's five stacks that

1:23:30

are entering

1:23:32

so i'd say you know it's probably around

1:23:33

20 total including those specs

1:23:37

so doesn't that mean we're probably

1:23:38

headed toward two dozen publicly traded

1:23:41

bitcoin mining companies in the first

1:23:43

half of 2022 maybe the first quarter

1:23:46

yeah no i think that's right i think by

1:23:48

the end of q1 we'll probably have

1:23:51

20 plus minus a few

1:23:53

and then and then you know how do you

1:23:55

value those companies right you look at

1:23:56

different metrics you know computational

1:23:58

hash power bitcoin reserves

1:24:05

so the revenue of all bitcoin miners

1:24:05

right now what is it 14 15 billion a

1:24:09

i don't know the exact number up top my

1:24:12

case for bitcoin i'll tell you i think

1:24:13

it's i think it's about 14 or 15 billion

1:24:16

yeah that sounds right

1:24:19

so the having

1:24:21

the having says i cut that in half

1:24:23

that's seven billion dollar number

1:24:25

so if bitcoin miners stop selling seven

1:24:28

billion in bitcoin that's the same as a

1:24:30

having

1:24:32

now the average market cap of a publicly

1:24:34

traded bitcoin miner is about a billion

1:24:36

dollars 24 bitcoin miners is 24 billion

1:24:40

actually probably more i can count off

1:24:41

the top of my head there's three that

1:24:44

are like 12 15 billion total

1:24:47

okay so you'll probably have about

1:24:51

maybe 40 billion dollar market cap but

1:24:53

between 20 and 40 billion dollar market

1:24:55

cap for those miners

1:24:57

now there are

1:24:58

i i can count

1:25:01

two of them that raise 1.2

1:25:03

three of them raised two billion dollars

1:25:06

in the past couple months just three

1:25:09

raised two billion dollars

1:25:11

okay so

1:25:12

i think you can expect that once they're

1:25:14

public uh 25 billion dollars worth of

1:25:17

market cap companies going to raise

1:25:18

about 12 billion in capital a year easy

1:25:22

12 billion dollars of capital what does

1:25:24

a bitcoin miner do with 12 billion

1:25:26

dollars of cash

1:25:32

not enough miners to buy

1:25:32

you can't buy 12 billion worth of miners

1:25:34

like feasibly yeah you can one year

1:25:36

cycle yeah right the entire

1:25:38

in fact they're already spoken for but

1:25:41

that's like a five billion dollar

1:25:43

type business maybe something

1:25:45

five six

1:25:47

so what happens is once you raise more

1:25:50

than that amount of capital and by the

1:25:53

way the miners are running with a 70

1:25:55

profit margin

1:25:56

so you got 24 billion dollars worth of

1:25:59

miners that are going to generate 10

1:26:01

billion dollars of cash flow next year

1:26:04

and they're going to raise 12 billion

1:26:06

dollars of capital so now i've got you

1:26:08

to 22 probably 24 billion in capital

1:26:11

next year flows into the business

1:26:14

you can only spend 6 billion of it

1:26:26

towards bitcoin right you're gonna

1:26:26

you're gonna buy more bitcoin reserve

1:26:28

there's only two things you can do you

1:26:29

can either not sell bitcoin

1:26:31

or you can buy bitcoin

1:26:33

your bitcoin miner

1:26:36

okay so they're both equivalent right

1:26:38

buying bitcoin is the same as not

1:26:40

selling bitcoin so

1:26:42

if i told you

1:26:45

that um the supply of bitcoin on the

1:26:47

exchange was going to shrink by 12

1:26:49

billion dollars next year

1:26:52

how does that compare to the impact of

1:26:53

the having

1:27:02

you're the having is 7 billion

1:27:02

i've got a double having event

1:27:05

so the having really isn't the issue

1:27:08

at the point that the bitcoin miners

1:27:09

generate collectively more than 14

1:27:12

billion dollars in free cash flow

1:27:15

then there really isn't a bitcoin for

1:27:17

sale right there's 14 billion in bitcoin

1:27:20

that's going to be sold theoretically if

1:27:22

all the revenue is sold as bitcoin

1:27:24

14 billion in cash flow takes your stock

1:27:26

to flow to infinity

1:27:33

at 24 billion in cash flow the stock to

1:27:33

flow goes to negative

1:27:35

50 or something you see

1:27:39

if stock to flow is 50 now it goes to

1:27:41

infinity then it goes to negative 50. so

1:27:43

the bitcoin miners become effective

1:27:45

bitcoin sinks they actually start

1:27:48

slurping up bitcoin they don't sell

1:27:50

bitcoin so

1:27:52

that's why i don't really focus on the

1:27:54

four-year halving cycle

1:27:56

because there's there's never been an

1:27:58

example of an industry

1:28:00

where

1:28:01

where the miners were producing a

1:28:03

scarcity

1:28:05

and not a commodity

1:28:07

see every other mine right copper miner

1:28:09

silver miners gold miners

1:28:13

drill rigs natural gas

1:28:15

right any kind of commodity producer any

1:28:18

factory they're producing a commodity

1:28:20

and by definition a commodity is

1:28:22

unbounded or unlimited in the amount

1:28:24

that you can produce

1:28:29

but a scarcity

1:28:29

which we would define as bitcoin

1:28:31

is capped at 21 million

1:28:34

this is

1:28:35

name another industry

1:28:38

with 24 publicly traded companies

1:28:40

producing a scarcity

1:28:46

i think i don't think it exists yeah it

1:28:46

doesn't exist i mean it's interesting

1:28:48

you know getting your perspective here

1:28:50

so there's 780 000 bitcoin that will be

1:28:53

mined by the end of 2024 right

1:28:56

and then we'll have the having so

1:28:57

that'll leave another

1:28:59

390 000 to be mine from the cycle 2024

1:29:03

to 2028. so if i'm a bitcoin miner like

1:29:06

i would be levering up as much debt as

1:29:08

possible and and running with the right

1:29:10

of hey i've got 1.2 million bitcoin i

1:29:13

can mine by the end of 2028 and then

1:29:15

beyond that you know

1:29:17

the supply is you know drastically

1:29:19

reduced every four years

1:29:21

so why why aren't you just you know

1:29:23

going to get unlimited debt well to the

1:29:25

points that you said but beyond that

1:29:27

if you can maintain those revenues and

1:29:29

you're really chasing minting new supply

1:29:31

then you should be targeting right now

1:29:37

yeah it's

1:29:37

it's a it's a game of aggression

1:29:39

financial aggression and you got to get

1:29:41

big really fast you got to raise as much

1:29:43

money as you can you have to buy as much

1:29:45

bitcoin as you can

1:29:47

my view would be i would raise as much

1:29:49

capital as i can i'd buy bitcoin then i

1:29:52

would buy all the hash power i can so if

1:29:55

i can buy other bitcoin miners i would

1:29:57

roll up every privately traded bitcoin

1:29:59

miner i could

1:30:01

you can see how this works right if

1:30:02

you're trading with a 10x revenue

1:30:04

multiple or 20 x revenue multiple and

1:30:06

you can buy private miners at a 3x or 5x

1:30:09

or 8x revenue multiple

1:30:11

you just buy them all you buy them for

1:30:13

stock

1:30:15

right and you you uh

1:30:17

all of a sudden go from being a billion

1:30:19

dollar miner to a 10 billion dollar

1:30:20

miner to a 25 billion dollar miner and

1:30:23

then you raise capital either through

1:30:25

equity or debt or converts

1:30:27

and then

1:30:28

you buy up all the hash power or you

1:30:31

lock up all the mining rigs but they're

1:30:33

already sold out for the next year and a

1:30:35

half probably

1:30:37

i would be shocked if the mining rigs

1:30:38

don't get sold out for the next three to

1:30:40

four years

1:30:41

in a in a capital intensive business

1:30:44

where there's a duopoly or something

1:30:47

people sometimes they will just buy

1:30:48

those delivery positions out for five

1:30:51

years or ten years

1:30:52

uh where does it where do you see that

1:30:54

uh take example boeing an airbus

1:30:57

in the airline business

1:30:59

where like emirates or or you know

1:31:02

another eddie odd they would buy like

1:31:04

the next eight years worth of seven

1:31:06

eight sevens just buy them all

1:31:09

lock everybody else out of the market

1:31:11

so um i think that you can buy that up

1:31:13

but you don't need that much capital

1:31:14

just to lock up all the delivery

1:31:17

and uh then you end up

1:31:19

just having excess capital so what do

1:31:21

you do you buy the bitcoin ideally you

1:31:23

buy the bitcoin before it appreciates in

1:31:25

value

1:31:27

you know there's there's one other

1:31:28

example of an industry where you have

1:31:31

a small group of companies

1:31:36

that are producing a scarcity

1:31:39

and that would be the digital monopolies

1:31:42

like uh apple and google

1:31:45

you know like like if you end up

1:31:48

creating a monopoly like a legal

1:31:50

monopoly of some sort you you've got

1:31:52

like a arm lock

1:31:55

right one way or the other

1:31:57

so um

1:31:59

so bitcoin

1:32:01

bitcoin is obviously a much better

1:32:05

much much better industry than uh than

1:32:07

any of the other

1:32:09

mining businesses the bitcoin miners are

1:32:11

really much better businesses than other

1:32:13

types of mines

1:32:15

and ultimately the dynamic to watch for

1:32:18

bitcoin price it's going to be

1:32:19

regulation

1:32:21

and it's going to be uh capital markets

1:32:24

activity of bitcoin miners

1:32:26

and it's going to be technology

1:32:29

and adoption in general

1:32:32

and any one of them right

1:32:34

like it it only takes one of them to

1:32:36

drive this for example the bitcoin

1:32:38

miners could on their back they could

1:32:40

drag the entire bitcoin industry if they

1:32:42

just get aggressive and raise 20 billion

1:32:44

dollars next year

1:32:46

this is you know will what if there's no

1:32:48

bitcoin for sale next year from any

1:32:50

miner right like

1:32:52

forget about all the other dynamics

1:32:53

right

1:32:55

so that's one possibility any big tech

1:32:58

company

1:32:59

google apple facebook

1:33:01

anybody that built amazon

1:33:04

microsoft any of them to build bitcoin

1:33:06

into their offering

1:33:08

could drive

1:33:15

how much uh square cash up sold 14

1:33:15

billion dollars of bitcoin

1:33:17

they're not the most powerful big tech

1:33:19

company 14 billion one year

1:33:21

if square cashup can drive 14 billion in

1:33:23

one year what do you think google can do

1:33:25

100 billion in one year

1:33:28

what could microsoft do

1:33:31

we talked about this before like

1:33:33

one of my pet peeves is i really think

1:33:36

the killer app uh

1:33:37

for digital property is i post like uh a

1:33:41

hundred thousand satoshi's

1:33:44

uh and get an orange check from twitter

1:33:47

like if anybody could go on twitter and

1:33:49

they could post a hundred thousand

1:33:50

satoshis from a lightning wallet and get

1:33:52

verified

1:33:54

then you could reset all your twitter

1:33:56

profiles so that you have to have a

1:33:58

orange check

1:33:59

or a blue check to post or comment or dm

1:34:03

if they upgraded that and said you can

1:34:04

have a a green check for one bitcoin

1:34:06

posted

1:34:08

and i'll give you a purple check if you

1:34:10

can post 10 bitcoin

1:34:13

now you create like this simple

1:34:14

verification architecture now what do

1:34:16

they prove i proved you're credit worthy

1:34:19

what do you do you build it into the

1:34:21

interface and now when everybody wants

1:34:22

to post on my twitter and say i'm stupid

1:34:25

they have to focus first post a hundred

1:34:27

thousand satoshis

1:34:29

and if i block them

1:34:32

then twitter goes back and says you know

1:34:34

you just gotta find a thousand satoshis

1:34:36

for being hostile online

1:34:38

and if someone sends me a direct message

1:34:41

and they don't have an orange check they

1:34:43

don't get through and if they want to

1:34:45

message me you want to message michael

1:34:46

saylor you got to post a hundred

1:34:47

thousand satoshis okay great i'll read

1:34:50

your comment and if they told me to like

1:34:52

you know they're gonna

1:34:53

chop me into a million pieces and i'm

1:34:55

stupid i block they get fined again

1:34:59

if they go online they post some hate

1:35:01

speech maybe they

1:35:03

they forfeit their orange check and they

1:35:04

get fined a hundred thousand satoshis

1:35:07

if you did that

1:35:08

you basically post a cyber security

1:35:11

deposit

1:35:12

that could go viral to like three

1:35:13

billion people

1:35:16

right

1:35:17

everybody on google everybody on

1:35:19

microsoft everybody with gmail everybody

1:35:21

with what's up telegram

1:35:23

twitter

1:35:24

facebook

1:35:26

messenger

1:35:27

what if everybody online had to post 100

1:35:30

000 satoshis in order to dm you or

1:35:32

comment or post a

1:35:35

post a review

1:35:37

or a little commentary on um

1:35:39

or if you wanted to go watch something

1:35:41

on youtube

1:35:42

do you know

1:35:43

okay here's a little test do you know

1:35:45

how often every week

1:35:48

some eastern european hacker

1:35:50

post a michael saylor bitcoin giveaway

1:35:58

it used to be 55 times a week

1:35:58

in the last two weeks

1:36:00

it's uh

1:36:02

1550 times a week

1:36:05

like every seven minutes

1:36:07

i have 300 people

1:36:09

three teams of people 24 7 every 15

1:36:12

minutes taking them down

1:36:15

and you know when you go online

1:36:17

i look and it's like 15 000 people are

1:36:20

currently listening to michael saylor

1:36:23

in his bitcoin giveaway

1:36:25

okay how do they get 15 000 people to

1:36:28

listen to me live every seven minutes

1:36:31

1500 times a week

1:36:33

to scam people

1:36:39

no cost of malice right

1:36:39

no no cost of malicious behavior

1:36:42

okay so what if it cost you right what

1:36:45

what's a hundred thousand satoshi's

1:36:47

right it's like uh

1:36:50

40 bucks forty dollars

1:36:53

what if it cost you forty dollars

1:36:55

every time

1:36:58

in your life

1:37:00

well in order to get like a pass to go

1:37:03

on to youtube

1:37:04

for the average person they would pay 40

1:37:06

dollars in fact i pay 10 a month to use

1:37:09

youtube because i want to avoid the ads

1:37:11

so if you had to post a 40 deposit once

1:37:15

not a big deal for a person

1:37:17

but for the scammer they would have to

1:37:19

pay 60 000 every seven minutes

1:37:22

because they would have this you know

1:37:24

post up forty thousand forty dollars

1:37:26

times fifteen thousand to actually

1:37:28

create the

1:37:29

appearance and then if we introduce like

1:37:31

the purple check or the green check they

1:37:33

would have to post 10 bitcoin what if it

1:37:36

cost you 10 bitcoin every to every seven

1:37:38

minutes

1:37:40

okay now a different situation

1:37:43

now you're monetizing malicious behavior

1:37:45

you know and and evil

1:37:48

right

1:37:49

and uh now back up and ask yourself the

1:37:52

question what does that do for um for

1:37:54

social media

1:37:57

you deliver safety and security

1:37:59

basically safety and civility in

1:38:00

cyberspace to billions and billions of

1:38:02

people

1:38:04

bitcoin is cyber security at the speed

1:38:06

of light

1:38:08

right

1:38:09

cyber security at the speed of light how

1:38:11

do you do it digital property on the

1:38:12

lightning network

1:38:14

why do you need it well because you need

1:38:16

to be able to do micro transactions the

1:38:18

killer application is post 100 000

1:38:20

satoshis to get verified

1:38:23

anybody in the world can do it from your

1:38:24

lightning wallet what's the implication

1:38:27

99.8 percent of all the hostile behavior

1:38:30

disappears online

1:38:32

you've got a totally new revenue model

1:38:35

now you can trust incoming messages on

1:38:37

what's up or telegram or instagram

1:38:41

you know you don't have like russian

1:38:43

bots like hitting you up all the time

1:38:45

i can't read i can't read my twitter dms

1:38:48

i have

1:38:49

50 000

1:38:51

like automated spam bot postings on

1:38:54

twitter

1:38:58

my company has three levels of spam

1:38:58

filters

1:39:00

you ever read your i mean you read the

1:39:02

stuff that gets caught in your email

1:39:03

filter

1:39:05

right

1:39:05

it's ridiculous yeah

1:39:08

so the jute the genius of course is

1:39:10

right uh proof of work was created

1:39:13

to stop spam

1:39:15

and we never applied it that way

1:39:18

but now we can right proof of work gives

1:39:21

you digital property digital property

1:39:23

gives you bitcoin bitcoin

1:39:26

moves on lightning

1:39:28

bitcoin also can move on a centralized

1:39:31

rail like square cash app or paypal

1:39:35

but but let's let's focus on lightning

1:39:37

because lightning is one satoshi one

1:39:39

second right

1:39:41

so move bitcoin via a lightning wallet

1:39:44

to social media

1:39:47

and then you've got six billion people

1:39:48

with smartphones everybody basically

1:39:51

posts what what's six billion times

1:39:54

forty dollars

1:39:56

you know

1:39:58

2.4 trillion

1:40:01

forty two hundred forty fourteen i was

1:40:02

140 billion

1:40:05

you know you start by by driving a

1:40:07

hundred billion dollars worth of demand

1:40:10

but then what happens when

1:40:12

a business has to actually post

1:40:15

a bitcoin

1:40:16

there's a hundred million businesses

1:40:19

like how many bitcoin do you think

1:40:21

someone should have to post before they

1:40:23

ask you to wire them a bitcoin or wire

1:40:26

them money or something

1:40:28

it's very reasonable that you could

1:40:30

expect the big brands would and big

1:40:33

influencers

1:40:34

would post a bitcoin or even more than

1:40:37

one bitcoin multiple bitcoin so you

1:40:39

could have demand for

1:40:42

hundreds of thousands of bitcoin or

1:40:44

millions of bitcoin from institutional

1:40:46

users

1:40:47

and also a million bitcoin from consumer

1:40:52

and then all these big uh cyber networks

1:40:55

become banks if you will

1:40:58

and then we're back to technology drives

1:41:00

adoption

1:41:02

i mean you see the adoption angle you

1:41:04

see the technology angle

1:41:06

what's the use case the use case is like

1:41:08

cyber security security in cyberspace

1:41:10

eight billion people what's the other

1:41:12

use case

1:41:13

utility

1:41:15

for example

1:41:16

can i read my dms on instagram no can i

1:41:20

read my twitter dms no can i trust a

1:41:23

message from you over telegram no can i

1:41:26

trust a message received

1:41:28

from you over any messaging app no right

1:41:32

if will clementi reaches out to me on

1:41:35

facebook messenger tomorrow how many

1:41:37

steps does it take before i know it's

1:41:39

even you

1:41:41

right so can i

1:41:43

you know i post something on twitter it

1:41:45

says there's 950 comments

1:41:47

you ever try to read the comments i

1:41:49

click on them there's like 20 i can read

1:41:52

all the rest have been like downgraded

1:41:54

is potentially hostile or something

1:41:58

they don't work

1:42:00

right

1:42:01

stuff doesn't work right we have become

1:42:03

numb to the fact that

1:42:05

a lot of stuff doesn't work in

1:42:07

cyberspace can you trust the ratings on

1:42:10

yelp can you trust

1:42:12

the the stuff that people say

1:42:15

what percentage of the twitter accounts

1:42:17

are actually real human beings

1:42:20

can you well we

1:42:22

we know that there are thousands of fake

1:42:23

ones that try to follow you all the time

1:42:28

you really

1:42:30

you want to focus on something

1:42:32

don't focus upon the four-year having

1:42:35

cycle

1:42:37

focus upon the regulation

1:42:39

the education

1:42:41

the technology

1:42:43

the integration

1:42:45

and you know it's like

1:42:47

it kind of i find it to be really kind

1:42:50

of a tragedy in a way that there's so

1:42:52

much energy going into reinventing the

1:42:55

wheel like bitcoin and lightning right

1:42:58

bitcoin is the property network

1:43:00

lightning is the transaction network

1:43:02

okay you've got a non-custodial

1:43:04

transaction network you got a

1:43:06

non-custodial

1:43:07

asset network

1:43:09

okay so there's your wheel

1:43:12

why do we got to reinvent it 18 000

1:43:15

times

1:43:16

why don't we figure out how to plug the

1:43:18

wheel

1:43:19

into facebook and google

1:43:22

and amazon and apple and microsoft

1:43:27

youtube

1:43:28

and fill in the blank every single thing

1:43:30

we use in our life that's either unsafe

1:43:33

or full of garbage

1:43:35

or difficult

1:43:36

or lacking signal

1:43:39

if we do that

1:43:40

then um

1:43:42

we'll just bring a a a huge amount of

1:43:46

to the civilization

1:43:48

you know you'll drive up the value of of

1:43:51

bitcoin by

1:43:52

two orders of magnitude

1:43:55

and you don't really need to invent

1:43:58

you know a ton more features

1:44:01

you don't need that many more features

1:44:02

we can polish the lightning a little bit

1:44:05

but really the innovation should be in

1:44:07

the application layers

1:44:09

and the network layers

1:44:11

like how about like why don't we just

1:44:13

use bitcoin to eliminate all email spam

1:44:17

in the world for everybody forever

1:44:19

how about that

1:44:21

can we do that yeah how long will it

1:44:23

take 36 months

1:44:26

good thing bad thing

1:44:27

obviously a good thing

1:44:29

what politicians gonna actually fight

1:44:32

what do you need you need bitcoin plus

1:44:34

lightning plugged into office 365

1:44:37

with an orange check

1:44:40

that's the opportunity that i'm really

1:44:41

enthusiastic about

1:44:44

you know it's it's there's so many

1:44:46

things like that that are sitting there

1:44:47

right what's that worth i mean like

1:44:50

each of these bitcoins worth a trillion

1:44:52

dollars to the p l

1:44:55

on the operating side of the business to

1:44:57

all the big tech companies trillion each

1:45:01

google microsoft facebook apple they

1:45:03

could all generate a trillion dollars of

1:45:05

operating value by building it into

1:45:06

their products and their services

1:45:08

properly they just haven't figured it

1:45:10

out yet

1:45:11

and then it's worth another trillion

1:45:13

dollars on their balance sheet to their

1:45:14

stock if they plugged it into as their

1:45:16

treasury asset

1:45:19

and uh

1:45:20

every other company you know pretty much

1:45:22

every company on earth i figure you

1:45:24

could probably double the market cap of

1:45:25

the company if they figured out how to

1:45:27

integrate digital property

1:45:29

into it

1:45:30

either on the balance sheet side the p l

1:45:33

and they're all straight forward and

1:45:35

they don't require another token

1:45:39

right so

1:45:41

i would focus on that do you guys have

1:45:42

other stuff you wanted to cover on your

1:45:49

i'm good mason if you if you have

1:45:49

anything i think yeah i think it's a

1:45:50

good spot to start wrapping it up i know

1:45:52

we're way over on time here so

1:45:55

i think you answered

1:45:57

our whole list through through different

1:45:59

segments

1:46:01

exactly exactly okay

1:46:04

hey michael i just wanted to say you

1:46:05

know thank you so much this was

1:46:07

incredible um you know this is this

1:46:10

would be a huge christmas gift to all

1:46:11

the the whole the holders out there so

1:46:14

um i just i just wanted to say we really

1:46:16

appreciate your time and coming on i

1:46:18

mean this conversation was just

1:46:20

incredible do you have any kind of last

1:46:21

words you want to leave the hobblers out

1:46:23

there with um especially as we head into

1:46:25

this new year

1:46:26

happy holidays

1:46:32

my last words are i just think

1:46:32

everything macroeconomically is great

1:46:34

for bitcoin we're going through

1:46:35

volatility and i think i explained to

1:46:37

you why we have volatility

1:46:40

and uh

1:46:42

i think that

1:46:43

everybody should remember their laser

1:46:46

right the whole point of laser eyes is

1:46:48

focus you've got you've got digital

1:46:50

property you've got bitcoin you've got

1:46:52

lightning

1:46:54

if you just hold on and think out 10

1:46:57

years 20 years 30 years the entire world

1:47:00

is going to have to evolve the

1:47:02

regulatory apparatus all the technology

1:47:04

platforms all the applications

1:47:07

there's a lot of things that are going

1:47:10

evolve but you know if you just stay

1:47:13

focused through thick and thin

1:47:15

ultimately things will work out well

1:47:18

because

1:47:19

because it's rational everything i've

1:47:21

described is rational and because it's

1:47:23

rational somebody will do it at some

1:47:26

point it's just a question of the

1:47:27

sequencing of things

1:47:29

the thing you don't want to do right now

1:47:32

is you don't want to lose focus

1:47:34

right you don't want to lose focus you

1:47:36

don't want to lose conviction you know

1:47:38

you've got the winning strategy don't

1:47:41

allow the volatility and all the

1:47:44

marketing hysteria and everybody with

1:47:47

the conflict of interest

1:47:48

to shake your commitment

1:47:51

right that the world's going to be full

1:47:52

of 10 000 ventures and every venture is

1:47:55

going to say blah blah blah this is

1:47:57

better than bitcoin because of this or

1:47:59

whatever but

1:48:01

the the test of a really good venture is

1:48:03

are they leveraging

1:48:05

bitcoin and lightning right especially

1:48:07

bitcoin are they leveraging it to do

1:48:09

something better or are they trying to

1:48:11

reinvent it

1:48:12

and if they're leveraging it for

1:48:13

something better then it's just a risky

1:48:15

venture

1:48:16

right it's a venture it's a risky

1:48:19

and and you can choose to invest or not

1:48:22

and buy the product or not

1:48:24

but if they're trying to reinvent it

1:48:27

then they've lost focus they've lost

1:48:28

their way

1:48:30

right and and uh that's that's a

1:48:32

different thing entirely

1:48:34

caveat emptor

1:48:37

i think um

1:48:39

i think we're really so close to a major

1:48:41

breakthrough here

1:48:43

and i hate to see people lose faith

1:48:45

because

1:48:46

they're getting bounced around

1:48:48

as they go down the rapids

1:48:50

because i

1:48:51

i think if you roll the clock back 12

1:48:53

months or 18 months and you told me

1:48:56

everything that was going to happen

1:48:58

it would have exceeded my wildest dreams

1:49:01

like i i think it's been all good

1:49:04

and once you think about it from a

1:49:06

fundamental point of view like the way

1:49:09

that bitcoin has been embraced by the

1:49:11

world

1:49:12

i think you realize that we're on the

1:49:14

right path

1:49:15

we just uh got to keep working

1:49:18

and you got to work through the trolls

1:49:22

and the haters and the critics

1:49:25

and then everybody that wants to

1:49:26

reinvent the wheel

1:49:28

because they have a personal agenda

1:49:31

and and you gotta nurture

1:49:33

nurture um

1:49:34

the real virtues in the community

1:49:37

right there's and if you're a bitcoin

1:49:39

exchange right then

1:49:41

be thinking about how to incorporate

1:49:43

lightning and and upgrade the exchange

1:49:45

of your bitcoin miner obviously you got

1:49:46

to figure out how to upgrade your mining

1:49:48

operation and

1:49:50

figure out what is it you can do right

1:49:52

now to increase the value

1:49:54

of the entire ecosystem

1:49:57

and you know the

1:49:59

the checklist every morning is kind of

1:50:01

simple it's like

1:50:03

get up

1:50:04

educate somebody on bitcoin work on a

1:50:07

project

1:50:08

to buy more bitcoin

1:50:10

right maybe work on a project to make

1:50:13

bitcoin better make the entire ecosystem

1:50:15

better right add value

1:50:17

uh and then finally

1:50:20

figure go learn and study and figure out

1:50:22

what happened in bitcoin you know since

1:50:24

you last looked to keep yourself

1:50:27

update

1:50:28

and then the next day do it again right

1:50:31

and that's focus

1:50:32

and i think that the really the great

1:50:34

companies do that

1:50:36

great great business people do that and

1:50:39

and where you start to stray off the

1:50:41

path and you lose your focus

1:50:43

right you get distracted you get

1:50:45

insecure right that's it's dilutive all

1:50:48

these things are dilutive distractions

1:50:50

right and the dilutive distractions

1:50:52

always come in like a good idea

1:50:55

but you gotta ask the question is it a

1:50:57

great idea is it is it gonna make

1:50:59

bitcoin better and is it gonna get me

1:51:01

more bitcoin and is it gonna educate

1:51:03

more people on

1:51:04

bitcoin or is it just a different thing

1:51:07

because the world's got 10 000 other

1:51:09

ideas

1:51:11

you tweeted something the

1:51:13

you tweeted something the other day i

1:51:14

i'm gonna i'm gonna um mess up the

1:51:16

wording here but it's something like

1:51:18

when there's nothing to do do nothing

1:51:20

right i think that that's kind of a good

1:51:21

way to kind of wrap that up there warren

1:51:24

buffett quote yeah the trick is when

1:51:25

there's nothing to do

1:51:27

do nothing

1:51:29

it's like that scene in the bruce lee

1:51:30

movie you ever see it's probably end of

1:51:33

the dragon where bruce lee is basically

1:51:34

beating up 250 guys it's like a a

1:51:37

slugfest and he's just overcome like a

1:51:40

hundred of them and he's the best

1:51:42

fighter you know in the entire

1:51:46

palace

1:51:47

and then at some point the you know the

1:51:49

the evil guy drops captures bruce lee in

1:51:52

some kind of like

1:51:54

octagon and drops glass all around him

1:51:58

so he's trapped in the octagon and he

1:52:00

can't get out and they can't get in

1:52:02

and he sees the hundred fighters and

1:52:05

they're all getting ready to come after

1:52:06

him and he looks

1:52:08

and he puts his nunchucks

1:52:10

over his shoulders and he sits down in

1:52:13

the lotus position and he just conserves

1:52:15

his energy and he waits

1:52:17

he's not gonna get rattled he's gonna

1:52:19

wait until the walls come up and when

1:52:21

the walls come up he's gonna start

1:52:22

fighting again

1:52:24

but it's such a it's a classic zen-like

1:52:27

moment right that is so

1:52:28

iconic right sometimes there's nothing

1:52:31

to do do nothing

1:52:33

right

1:52:35

thank you for giving me a platform guys

1:52:37

and and for the opportunity to talk

1:52:39

about this

1:52:40

and keep up the good work i mean you're

1:52:42

both making extraordinary contributions

1:52:44

to the community

1:52:45

and uh brings a smile to my face

1:52:49

thank you what's going on michael

1:52:51

take care have a good holiday

1:52:54

you too bye

1:52:57

[Music]

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