Michael Saylor Interview: Bitcoin Regulation, Volatility, and Market Structure
Blockware Intelligence · 2021-12-24 · 1h 53m · View on YouTube →
hey everybody welcome back to another
very special episode of the block where
intelligence podcast this week we have
an extremely special guest michael
saylor who doesn't even really need an
introduction at this point as well as
this week mason joppa our ceo will be
co-hosting the conversation mr sailor
thank you so much for your time happy to
have you on how are you doing
looking forward to it
awesome um i just wanted to first start
with like are you doing anything for the
holidays
bitcoin and chill
nice
giving the gift of bitcoin to everybody
netflix and
looking forward to a comfortable holiday
season
i first wanted to start with like what
did you think about the hearing last
week uh with sbf and brian brooks um i
forgot for the spokeswoman um
the
from from coinbase um what did you think
of that whole hearing like what were
kind of the key takeaways from that from
your perspective and uh did you think it
was kind of the you know beneficial
thing for the space
i think there's a lot of support for the
entire crypto industry in uh
in congress in the house and i think
it's pretty clear there's a lot of
political support for
uh for the crypto economy that's the
number one takeaway it was a fairly
friendly hearing uh to my mind
and it just reinforced my views on
regulation in general
which are
i mean every everybody knows we need
stable coins and stable coins will be
welcomed into the ecosystem but the
preference the preference of the
regulators is insured banks
the politicians are a bit more flexible
i think they would
they'd be happy to
allow a few other on-ramps but i mean at
the end of the day it's going to be some
sort of public
vehicle where you have um
transparency and disclosure and
licensing of the stablecoin
issuers and there's a little bit of
tug-of-war about whether it'll be only
fdic or it'll be
state chartered
state chartered banks and money transfer
agents or some other public
uh public organization
if they're deemed as securities right
then the then the lowest
the lowest plateau for a security would
be
you got to make a disclosure of um of
the risk related to the uh to the
ownership of the securities
and that would be a lower threshold
requiring an fdic banked issue a
stablecoin is the highest threshold i
think
with regard to you know everything else
you know it's uh
defy security tokens and the like i i
didn't really sense a lot of hostility
from the politicians with regard to
anything as far as i could see
and as i've said before i really think
the big winner is bitcoin in all these
because the one thing that's unsaid
that's that's yet said
is there really isn't any controversy
around
the status of bitcoin as digital
property
the status of bitcoin is a property not
a security
bitcoin is not a currency it's not a
security
it is property
uh it is not um
and it is not in and of itself a
centralized entity
everything else in the ecosystem either
looks like a currency and it gets
regulated you know if it's currency like
tether or circle
right then uh
then there's we're either going to
regulate it like a security and you're
going to have to be a public company and
you're going to have to make full
disclosures on a quarterly basis that's
or like a mutual fund that's the best
you can hope for
and the more extreme is you need an fdic
charter license right and then the
debate will be it can it be a state bank
or can it be a federally chartered bank
so
so we know that about stable coins um
with regard to all the defy and the
security tokens i mean they all look
like their securities and now there's a
tossing about whether there should be
light securities regulation or heavier
securities
guidelines and
it's uh it's unclear they didn't right
define they didn't decide anything there
uh what they
what they did uh kind of just generally
all you uniformly agree on is
bitcoin is property not to be regis not
to be regulated by the sec
or the treasury
or the cftc
in any way other than
just seeing ordinary uh customary and
ordinary
expectations around
transfer taxes proper you know a capital
gains taxes and
and classic
asset transfer
disclosures at some level
so
that's my takeaway i mean generally i
don't know how you could be anything
other than bullish about
about the entire asset class when you
watch that
if you're a bitcoiner
sure and what are your thoughts about
kind of the evolution of regulation
around bitcoin moving forward um and
then i guess like kind of a um you know
jam pack like
a side of that question as well is like
what do you think about the trade-offs
between sovereignty and regulation
because obviously regulation is
something that we're going to have to
face moving forward with the asset class
but obviously kind of the you know
sovereign individual ethos of bitcoin is
very at the you know
heart of a lot of the hardcore hoddlers
of the asset so what do you kind of
think about some of the uh kind of
sacrifices that will have to be made in
that sense moving forward
um well first of all i think that all
the regulatory uncertainty right now in
the political climate revolves around
crypto exchanges stable coins
and uh security tokens and d5 exchanges
and all the yield products and and all
the
advanced applications
right that's where the regulatory
uncertainty is right all the all the
back and forth
about what'll happen and when it will
happen really relates to digital
securities digital exchanges
digital
currencies
bitcoin's digital property there aren't
there we're not really having much in
the way of serious debates around that
like no one's questioning whether you
can take uh personal custody of your
bitcoin
right that's not on the table
and so
what what i think in general about the
crypto industry is there's
there's 20 or 30 pretty powerful
uh regulatory regimes
you know japan korea china
they're all going back and forth and
they have different various degrees of
view on this and there's going to be a
lot of regulatory intervention in the
crypto economy in general around otc
trading
can you trade with leverage
can you know can you can you have a 20
to 1 margin loan can i can i trade uh
without a tax disclosure
what are the tax disclosures can i trade
the security token without a securities
disclosure all that's going to go on for
the next three to five years i think
that that's and if you're invested in
any of those things if
if you're either in the business of it
or you're issuing one or you're owning
them
then i think
it's
it's an uncertain regime it's very risky
very complicated
and uh and
there's it's not clear what the answer
will be other than the fact that the u.s
will be probably the driver and whatever
whatever the us decides
treasury sec cftc that will probably
drive 80 percent of the direction of the
rest of the world but not a hundred
percent
there's always you know there's always
going to be a bit of
diverse diversity there and views
now with regard to bitcoin and and
property rights in general
my view there is i just i think
bitcoiners angst a lot about this more
than they need to
there's like 750 trillion dollars of
property in this world that's owned by
non-bitcoin people
that have lesser rights
than
the uh
the worst case for bitcoin
like like if you conceive of try to
figure out what is the worst case for
bitcoin over the next decade
the worst case for bitcoin might be
right now as far as i can see it's like
if you take custody of all your bitcoin
off the exchange you have to admit that
you took it
okay that that's like you have to say i
wired
20 bitcoin
to myself
okay and there's a disclosure that's the
worst case
and now you have the bitcoin and you
could have it any of a hundred thousand
counterparties you can send it anywhere
in 30 minutes and you've got it on a
hardware device or you've got it on any
device okay now i want you to think
about that worst case
and now i want you to think about the
best case
for the equivalent amount of gold silver
property
equity apple stock
government bonds corporate bonds
collectibles art
now tell me is there anything else on
earth
that you would rather be holding
than bitcoin
that you admitted
to the government that you hold
i mean try making your uh building in
the middle of manhattan disappear in a
boating accident
right that's a good idea you know what i
mean it's not happening so i think that
by the way try making your yacht
disappear in a boating accident
okay the point really is i think that
bitcoin the bitcoin community is very
smart
they're very smart and they're very
paranoid and to paraphrase andy grove
only the paranoid survive that's good
that's why i love them i love them i
love all the bitcoins right and i i love
the hodlers and and i really appreciate
all the thought that goes into
uh defending the network defending the
asset class but
i think from a practical point of view
right the conclusion you come to is
every other piece of property everything
else in the crypto ecosystem everything
in the non-crypto ecosystem is inferior
to hold under any
possible outcome than bitcoin is right
now so the answer is you ought to just
buy bitcoin you ought to hold bitcoin
you ought to tell everybody else hold
bitcoin and then when you consider
uh
you know how do you feel about someone
you know all these things well i mean
the answer is
this is a twisty one you know like um
it turns out that you can fight really
really hard uh take the extreme
anarchist libertarian point of view to
protect all six thousand five hundred
cryptos
right they're sh yeah they're all they
all should i can i should be able to
create my own dogecoin yo-yo coin it's a
currency that's a privacy coin that's a
security that gives yield that i can
send to anybody right that's the extreme
libertarian view you could take that
view
to protect bitcoin on the other hand you
might be hurting yourself
because
if all those things disappeared tomorrow
the money would probably flow into
bitcoin
so so you see it's a very interesting
situation i think
i don't think we have to fear the
government
not right now
like maybe in a decade
if you look at
right now
most of the people concerned about
regulation in the bitcoin community
they're extrapolating from an altcoin
like there's an alt coiner that was
issued by some group of people
that are going and they're running to
the bitcoin community saying you know if
if the sec regulates us as a security or
we can't keep doing what whatever we're
doing then they'll come for you next
well no
i don't think they will they won't come
for us next like
like if someone's running an illegal
boiler room pump and dump scheme to
defraud the general public and the sec
says you got to stop i don't think
that's a threat to bitcoin
right so so i i think that we overreact
and so and we don't need to overreact i
don't really see any initiative
that prevents anybody from owning
bitcoin as digital property
right and i think almost if you cloak
yourself with every other altcoin
you undermine your case for digital
property i don't i don't think you
improve it and i think um
i think
we should just come back to the
observation that the enemy is not the
government the enemy is property
the enemy is alternate property if
there's 750 trillion dollars worth of
money invested in
global equities 300 300 billion in debt
right
120 billion in global equity
300 billion in real estate
all of that stuff has inferior property
rights to bitcoin
so all you have to do is just cheerfully
educate the world as to why they're
building their ranch land their oil well
drilling rights
all of those things all their
intellectual property is inferior to
bitcoin
it's all inferior to bitcoin
right and and uh and with any
within any ecosystem if you're in
venezuela bitcoin is the best property
in venezuela i don't have an opinion
about the government in turkey
bitcoin is the best property in turkey i
don't have to have an opinion about the
government
in argentina bitcoin is the best
property in argentina in the u.s bitcoin
is the best property in the u.s in china
bitcoin is the best property
right now how do you feel about capital
controls wage controls price controls
you know labor controls
political laws religious laws
everybody's got stuff that they could
disagree with
but if you choose to disagree with all
those things right
you're going to be in conflict
with a lot of people that aren't against
bitcoin you're just turning them against
bitcoin right
right like uh you know when you go to
an islamic country right bitcoin is
neither christian nor islamic right like
you don't really want to get into that
when you go to any country
it's not democrat it's not republican
right
it's not this or that
it's just better property than the
alternative property
the only place
i think the only place in the world
where where
a person is pro bitcoin
is in conflict with the government
is in a true communist regime
if you're in a regime
where they where the ethos of the
government is private property or
individual ownership of all property
is illegal
right there's a few right maybe like
north korea cuba
in the uh in the soviet regime in russia
right in theory no one could own
anything
right in that change but but you know
people can own property in china they
can own property in russia there are a
lot of political regimes which are
different as long as it's legal to own
property
then instead of fighting the battle
like instead of saying i want to topple
securities law
or i want to
i want to change the tax code i want to
change the security code
you know i want to change the political
system i just you know instead of
fighting that battle
i think this fight one battle which is
bitcoin is better property than an acre
of land
it's better property than 37 donkeys
it's better property than a lump of gold
right is it legal
to make a decision
to own
a hundred donkeys
instead of a stack of corn instead of an
acre of land instead of
a bitcoin
if it is
then 99
of the solution to our problem
is go find the people that own
oil wells and own natural gas fields and
own farmland and own tall buildings and
cities
and own too many cars and own stuff
and convince them
to sell that stuff or mortgage that
stuff
and buy bitcoin
and and you know how should you do it
well
within the system that you live in
right
respect the laws and respect the culture
of the society you live in
but by all means
don't invest in a hundred donkeys
don't invest in a bar of gold
don't invest
the government
the government doesn't have a law that
says you have to have 100 of your assets
in the local currency
right like there aren't very many
by the way when they get there
that's kind of like getting close to
communism you know so they're it's
possible we'll get to something do you
think we are going there yes i was going
to ask on that oh i don't think we're
going there i think that uh i think that
we spend a lot of time worrying about
that
and i just think it's a waste of time
and energy i think there's there's a lot
of fighting about
like like about who can come up with the
bigger doomsday scenario than the next
person
it's like yeah it's colorful i mean
it'll get you like some engagement on
but no i i think
again what's what's the total value of
all assets in the united states other
than bitcoin that's called an asset or a
property right
isn't that it depends if we're uh
subtracting out debt from those
from those the point is the debts
included
yeah and there are people that you meet
every day that own the debt
and uh and so
if uh if you're talking to the public
right i think the battle you want to
fight
is to persuade people that
owning a bitcoin is better than owning a
corporate bond
small building
right
just uh
all you're doing is trading up weak
assets for strong assets
i think you know and and leave
leave the politics
like you we can fight over tax right we
can but now you're a politician
like you have an opinion about you know
how the tax system should work that's
that's a political decision
you can fight over currency that's
political decision
you know the irony you know what i've
said before is what's going to happen
as far as i can see is that u.s dollar
is going to run on stable
and when that gets released in size by
an fdic approved bank the stablecoin
business is going to go from 180 billion
to a trillion to 10 trillion
and when that happens
it's going to collapse the currencies of
like 30 countries that will remain
nameless
and when the currencies collapse because
everybody basically sells that local
currency to buy the dollar
wouldn't you rather just have you know
the the mainstream media write stories
about how the state department is
explaining to the ambassador from such
and such that we're sorry that their
citizens have adopted the dollar instead
of the local currency
i mean leave it to the state department
right leave it to the government
right do you really want to be on the
hook like if the choice was
pick a country the us dollarized that
country
or
uh bitcoin
bitcoin eyes that country
well you know the
at the end of the day i mean i think
the the us government can take care of
itself
right they're not going to arrest the
ambassador from from the us when they
call him to to express their discontent
about the fact that the citizens have
dollarized
you you really want to be the ambassador
of bitcoin and show up and say the same
thing
like my point is you're fighting a
battle 20 years or 30 years early
you don't need to fight will we ever get
to the point where there are no nation
states and there's no
no
currencies
that are issued by sovereign powers i
it's not really a debate for the next
decade
like this decade
the debate is
is bitcoin better property than all the
other properties in the world and then
and the answer is yeah
and now the question's just well how do
i buy some
yeah and then and your strategy of uh
taking on
debt or trading your alternate assets
for bitcoin is you know very apparent
what are your thoughts on on
interest-bearing products that are paid
out in native uh particularly those that
are coming out that are
non-custodial right where you can
maintain control of your bitcoin and
maintain your keys and you maintain your
bitcoin currency and you can still
receive interest on that i think that's
super intriguing
but to the to the inverse of the
products that exist now where you have
to
you know store your product with a or
store your your property aka your
bitcoin with a custodian to receive the
interest
do you have any opinions on those
products
yeah well i mean you're describing a lot
of d5 stuff and
my opinion is there's 12 billion dollars
worth of defy hacks in the past two
years
okay
okay so yeah it's a true it's intriguing
but again this is an example of
of i think the perfect becomes the enemy
of the good
in theory it would be nice
if i could take my bitcoin put it into a
decentralized protocol and generate
yield on it
the problem with it is uh technically
it's insecure right you're they're
getting hacked all like three times a
week
right
like every every few days right yeah
hundreds of millions a week okay so
so that's one problem it's a technical
security problem the second problem is
if you understand securities law
then you understand that they're all
securities
okay if you
when you're actually uh you're doing it
with a staking maybe you could come up
with a way to do it with just pure
bitcoin like i mean the closest thing is
almost like getting some yield on a
lightning note or something but
if you could but but all the approaches
people have solved so far with security
tokens and the security the tokens are
securities which means that you have to
issue them pursuant to a registration
statement if you don't it's illegal
not to mention unethical right
so
i mean
again this this takes us back to this
issue which is
you live in in the united states
yeah you can go get a yield
if you're if you're a consumer you can
go get a yield um and you're getting it
from
some
some are you getting it from a bank or
that where it's got a license or are you
getting it from an unlicensed entity
right if it's a security token that's
its own thing that's you know you're
pretty much trading all coins that are
not licensed and that's i think that's
risky in so many different ways not to
mention the fact that there's 10 000 of
them eventually so which one do you want
to hold for a while so that's that's
speculation
uh
if you're actually just posting
collateral into an unlicensed
yield generator
it doesn't have a license you can get a
yield but the problem is they're not
licensed right so you have lots of
regulatory actions
and then you don't the whole point of
the regulators there is
when you give me your money
and i agree to give you six percent
yield
how do i generate the yield
i have to go and i have to loan it out
to some counterparty now what if i loan
it to some counterparty what do they do
they short it in the market
and then what if they're or they hedge
it they sell covered calls or they they
trade in options and what if uh
what if bitcoin trades within a 20 band
well then you get your yield what if it
trades in a 42 brand
ban well then they get forced liquidated
you get wiped out you lose all your
principle the bank fails okay do you
know that
what kind of risk are you taking right
um
you're just investing in a hedge fund
but you're investing in a hedge fund
without understanding the strategy of
the hedge fund so
so the problem with that is that you
know ethically
and legally if i'm going to run a hedge
fund and take money from the public i
have an obligation to file a
registration statement and tell
everybody what kind of risk i'm taking
right i mean that's what every public
company does and that's what every
mutual fund does this is the this is
what i'm going to do with your money to
get to get the yield
okay so fine that's what i'm going to do
if
if you wanted to invest your money in a
yield generating fund and you had that
adequate disclosure then
i don't have a a problem with it i mean
i think that
you've been given
proper disclosure and you bought a
security
and you've taken securities risk
now the problem of course is
you bought a security but there was no
securities disclosure so you're sitting
in this gray zone where technically it
is illegal and the regulators could shut
it down and seize the asset right so
if you're sitting in the middle of that
operation as in do i want to be the
investor waiting to see
how that gets wrapped up
do i want to be on the other side that's
that's just a gray zone
so i wouldn't uh pursue it now i get uh
i get the opposite point of view which
is well i can give my money to jp morgan
and they give me 20 basis points
yeah i get it you've got this really
difficult situation right you have a you
have um one safe zone i can either hold
dollars at no yield or i can all bitcoin
at no yield those are both safe havens
right
it's well understood that you can own
own currency at an fdic
insured bank and it's understood you can
own digital property those are two
obvious clear zones these other zones
you know can i own a stable coin issued
by a non-fdic insured institution and
put it into some contract with some
exchange where they give me some yield
but the exchange doesn't have a license
it's based on a security token that's
not
issued pursuant to securities law
you know i'm trusting a lot of
counterparties here
but i'm getting a yield right
right you're altcoining everyone
so i like uh
i don't think it's worth the risk right
now because the theoretical yield on
digital property is quite high right
it's a theory i mean
still the 10-year yield on bitcoin is
150 percent even the one-year yield
right now is a hundred percent right so
if you're chasing after five percent
yield or 10 yield
let's say let's say i'm giving you 10
yield you're chasing after another 10
but risking everything and risking a lot
you know do you really want to risk
everything to chase after 10 percent
i
i don't i think that again like there's
there is a very um
there's an ideological
aspect to bitcoin non-custodial
non-custodial is really important for
one thing for the property the
underlying bitcoin token
but here's here's another point i'd make
the
the most important innovation in the
century right the thing that's like
maybe the most important innovation in
property in 5 000 years is bitcoin
it's non-custodial decentralized digital
property
that's the innovation
everybody keeps trying to re reapply
this innovation to every other layer
like
80 percent of the value took place when
we just created the bitcoin if
a centralized entity
held
the decentralized property
you would have a profound advance
forward so for example if if jp morgan
went and they bought a million bitcoin
tomorrow
you would have a decentralized property
held by a centralized entity
the price of bitcoin would go to 10
million a coin
and every hodler right every bitcoiner
with bitcoin and coal storage everywhere
in the world would have bitcoin worth 10
now
there's gonna be a hundred thousand
platforms a hundred million companies
there's ten thousand decentralized
crypto currencies or clock i mean things
that people are trying to represent is
decentralized there's all sorts of
non-custodial this any other thing
does any of it matter
no
nothing matters there's only one thing
in the world that matters which is
bitcoin
right if a government if the government
of russia or the government of saudi
arabia went and decided to buy a million
bitcoin or a hundred thousand bitcoin
five hundred thousand bitcoin if uh if
apple did
you see the whole point is we created a
stable point we created property in
cyberspace for the first time in the
history of the human race now
there's a lot of non-custodial
decentralized things you can do with it
and there many of them are good like if
you're in a hostile regime like if you
live in a communist regime and they're
going to murder you because you have
property then you need peer-to-peer
non-custodial wallets i get it
right
in cuba or north korea
where the government thinks you should
lose your life and lose your freedom
should you own anything
then you need it
but uh
if you live in the united states where
where you have property rights
and you have a legal right to own things
like do you still need all these
non-custodial do you need 10 000
non-custodial crypto networks and
non-custodial everything under the sun
do you need non-custodial decentralized
yield generally do you need
decentralized insurance and
decentralized banking and decentralized
nft this that and the other thing and
it's like and my answer is no
like yeah there there's like this
there's this fascination with it
it's like uh you got a square peg or
people came up with like a
a hammer so everything's a nail
and they just keep they want to use the
hammer on everything
but really there's one thing
which is
the solution to half the problems on
earth one thing bitcoin
and then the next hundred thousand
things is going to be the answer to five
percent of the problems on earth but you
know what the problem is
the next hundred thousand things are
going to be non-compliant
so you you have one thing which is
compliant in in uh the world
in non-com in the socialist and the
capitalist world and a world of property
rights
bitcoin is compliant it is legal to own
property
now
is it legal you know to do d5
you know yield generation
you know credit default swaps on
decentralized exchanges
you know how about do uh triple
anonymous wash transactions on nfts that
i sold to myself six times with leverage
i mean none of that stuff is legal right
but you know maybe it's legal somewhere
in cyberspace but let's just use the
word compliant it's just you've just
every single thing you're trying to do
when you're trying to d if you're trying
to de-materialize insurance and banking
and art
you know i mean that's what this is
right nft is dematerialized art right
and d5 is dematerialized you know
banking and dematerialized exchanges and
when you're trying to dematerialize all
this other stuff
you're tripping over all these
compliance rails
and uh
and i think that i think the cognitive
mistake
and i i wish i could come up with a
better way to explain it to people the
cognitive mistake that the mistake that
people keep making over and over and
over again
is they think
that because bitcoin needs to be
decentralized
everything that touches it
needs to be decentralized as well
and that and that second thing is that's
just an error
like uh
centralized governments
right uh compliant governments uh public
investors public companies
public institutions centralized agencies
that have uh that are custodial
they all can benefit from bitcoin and
they and all of their engagement
benefits
bitcoin
like this this issue with non-custodial
at the end of the day you're the
custodian
like so i mean there's no such thing
really as non-custodial because a family
the patriarch of the family becomes the
and the beneficiaries are all the family
members so ultimately
you know until we get down to a world of
8 billion individuals that don't trust
each other
right there's a custodian somewhere
and
and uh
it's not a problem it really isn't
it's not a pro there's one thing that
needs to be non-custodial and the one
thing is bitcoin
like once you've created that one thing
everything else
like
like you want to generate yield well i
mean the truth is
a company fidelity coinbase jp morgan
goldman sachs
said they could all go to the sec and
they could create a bitcoin yield fund
fidelity could create a bitcoin yield
fund right now anybody in the mutual
fund business
could go and create a bitcoin eel fund
where they basically file a registration
statement and they say look we're going
to hold bitcoin we're going to sell the
volatility on bitcoin we're going to
sell out of the money calls
and we're going to generate effectively
12 yield
and we're going to give up all the
upside over 40 percent and maybe we're
going to color it or not color it so the
volatility is going to go from 80 volt
to 40 volt and the yield is going to go
from zero
to
eight percent
and over time probably your principal
will appreciate it 30 a year instead of
60 a year
by the way would i buy it no
right because i'd rather have 60 a year
tax deferred
then 30 a year tax deferred and 12
a year taxable because you would end up
in california paying 52 percent of the
yield
so yeah work out in your head right what
do you get you got 35 percent after tax
instead of 60 after tax
and who benefited whoever set up the
mutual fund they scrape one percent fee
or some hedge fund scrapes 2 and twenty
you know two and twenties two percent
management fee twenty percent of the
upside any number of hedge funds will be
happy to basically take two percent of
your principal twenty percent of the
gains and give you a yield fund or yield
vehicle on top of bitcoin
and they could and you and you can do it
in a compliant ethical legal fashion
in the us nothing stopping you from
buying that or getting that product
right and the rules are different in
every other country
and maybe in china the rules are
different again
but you know last i checked you know
bridgewater capital invest in china you
know like ray dalios on television
talking about
so
all of these things are possible i
i just think
like this is and this is a it sounds
like a bitcoin maximus position but it
isn't quite it's like
i think that the revolutionary
innovation
is digital property in the form of btc
and now
if you want to go do things
the right way to think of it is pair
fidelity with bitcoin and pair
apple with bitcoin and care and pair a
bank with bitcoin and pair
everything on earth
with bitcoin
everything
your insurance po do you have
decentralized non-custodial life
insurance right now
no
do you want it
when you die who when when they don't
pay your insurance plan when you die who
do your you know
you know you've got an insurance policy
from an anonymous person on twitter and
there's a rug poll and you don't collect
on the policy and who do you complain to
people don't really want
a non-custodial life insurance policy in
the united states at least
there a political sentiment for that if
i walked down the street
and i asked a hundred people would you
like to buy your food you know from
someone you don't know would you like to
buy your life insurance from someone you
don't know
would you like
you know would you figure it out
people are kind of comfortable doing
business with people they know
do you have anxiety about the government
yeah sure i do do you have anxiety about
the future yeah sure i do
but would you like to have uh
cities and countries and companies i
think so
so
i think that you got some money you have
an opportunity to buy bitcoin you want
to invest in something invest in a
company that's using bitcoin right
you want to live in a country live in a
country that lets you own bitcoin
you want to fix the thing
put some bitcoin in it
like that's
that's a very straightforward view
here's the other view
you want to fix your country let's make
it a dao
let's issue a cup you want to fix your
city let's let's create a city token
let's you want to fix your insurance
policy let's create and you know a defy
insurance thing in cyberspace with
nobody running it
you know like i mean it's you know let's
apply non-custodial decentralized
principles here's the problem you know
as far as i can see like there's been
one successful project called bitcoin
right
now uh there's 6 500 cryptos
name the next 12 that are property right
we can have a debate bitcoin forks but
but you know they would
they would like half the time they might
or might not be able to make the case
now you have 6 000 cryptos that are
projects but but they use the word
project but that's interchangeable with
it's really company
it's a project is venture right they're
all just venture
venture capital investments with project
teams and
in some cases they converted their
company to a foundation
you know but a foundation is a company
you know they're
at the end of the day it's
you know no one's figured out
how to actually do this and and for good
reason
if i wanted to sell life insurance in a
decentralized non-custodial fashion
have you read all the life insurance
laws in every state of the united states
do you know how many laws there are
you'd have to comply with it's a lot of
code
right
probably hundreds i mean
hundreds of laws
how do you get 17 random developers to
come together to implement 1 000 pages
of intricate life insurance code and
keep it up to date
i mean it doesn't isn't it obvious it's
a daunting impossible prospect
you know what it's like
you want a good a good example look at
sap and oracle and all their accounting
software
when you when you create accounting
software to account for anything the
sale of any product right you have
statutory requirements
you have armies of of programmers
you know when they change the tax code
we have to change the accounting
software right if you pay some if you
withhold 32 instead of 27 on january 1st
right
your company's going to blow itself up
right you either bust your financials or
all your employees come at you with
pitchforks right because you were
through the
yeah you can't run an accounting system
with decentralized non-custodial
code sets
just can't do it right
and so
the
the idea that uh everything ought to be
open source non-custodial that doesn't
really make sense in fact i give you a
different idea which is
if you look at the world you've got the
crypto where you've got digital
property you've got digital currency
you have uh digital platforms and you
have digital applications
bitcoin's digital property
right so it's the key to it can you
create digital property in non-custodial
decentralized way yeah you can
is it hard yeah there's like a 99
failure rate
right i mean there's a high failure rate
like it's like starting you know it's
like you're a
a boy scout you're starting a campfire
and it's wet outside and there's like a
hundred people trying it and one dude
succeeds and they start the fire and if
you've ever been out camping wet and
cold and one of you started the fire you
know we all run toward the person that
started the fire and we try to bar the
fire
right
and it doesn't always work that way
so it's hard to start a fire
but it's such a simple idea
now go to the other things digital
currency what's the problem the problem
is it's got to be compliant with banking
laws
okay and kyc aml
and what if it isn't it's illegal that's
the problem
right that's the problem it's very
simple so how are you going to stay
compliant we have to keep control of it
right you notice these stable coins they
can actually um
they they can actually seize your tokens
like tether or circle right i mean
they're not non-custodial
right
right the first thing you do if you if
you pull off a defy hack
is you get rid of the tether and the
circle because you because you know that
if you're holding a stable coin then it
could be seized by central authority so
they are central
okay so is there a way to do it without
being centralized not really i mean not
legally like i mean you can create um
[Music]
you can create a
non-custodial stable coin die right so
you could try to do something like that
but then you run into the issue of now
it's a security
so now you it it has to be so simple
that nobody maintains it
well if it's a security then uh uh a
compliant exchange can't trade it
are you following where this is going
like what's the on ramp and the off ramp
right if it's a security that's a that's
a challenge huh so the problem with
currencies is you got to uh you got to
deal with aml kyc
terrorists laws and
and so they're not going to be compliant
unless they're issued by banks
if you're going to be a stable coin that
is a currency so then you go to
platforms you want to be a d5 platform
like eth or whatever
well you're basically an exchange the
problem is there are laws around what
exchanges can do
right you'll be a national securities
exchange
you have to agree with you have to
comply with surveillance requests
you know you have to comply with certain
leverage requirements there's all
there's all sorts there's disclosure
there's tax disclosure requirements etc
so
now you're back to being compliant
well how do you how can you be compliant
if you're non-custodial
doesn't work so you eventually end up
becoming a company in your security and
you can do it if you're a coinbase
you know you've got a headquarters
try doing it without being a
headquarters becomes problem
and then you got applications while the
application to do what to move property
rights
okay so you just sold an nft and it's my
painting and i own the copyright but you
just sold it so i sue you
you're going to run that platform
what do you think would happen to
youtube
if um
if um the eagles go to youtube or fox
news goes to youtube says look we have
copyright on the television or that
album and you're running it or
or like yo yo
dying is is basically stole my music and
they've uploaded it to youtube and
they're getting paid
per view
right they have to take it down right
if you're gonna be a platform or you
know any kind of application
then if you wanna you have two choices
you can either become
[Music]
non-compliant
non-custodial
good luck with that
but that means that nobody can touch it
right it's got to it's got to run itself
try to figure that one out i don't you
can't really easily do that with
complicated applications in fact bitcoin
did it the way we do it is every 10
minutes you know we do
a few thousand transactions
you think youtube could do it that way
not likely no way yeah
so what you end up doing is you put a
kyc aml gate
it's like youtube could youtube could uh
ignore all the intellectual property
laws in the united states if they didn't
allow united states citizens to use the
platform
right how does that work out for a
business plan
we're just going to prevent everybody
with money in the world that you know
lives in a rich country from using the
platform and the platform moves money
around
huh
run that by me again
challenge
so
here's the i mean here's the big idea it
may be impossible maybe it's impossible
to do non-custodial decentralized
applications platforms
or currencies
it's quite possible like no one's really
dealing with that elephant in the room
there
it's a it's a beautiful idea
but it's unproven
there's only one thing that's proven
right bitcoin
we have proven that we can create a
non-custodial decentralized digital
asset network which serves as a property
a store of value we've proven that
everything else is a question mark
and there's a lot of
hope right a lot of venturing
what happens
if you're a speculator and if you're a
venture capitalist then you can pursue
that right i mean
airbnb is still illegal
in my hometown i mean still i mean as
far as i know it's illegal to airbnb
your your place in miami beach right
but it's a successful venture i mean
people made money on it
you can even get the company public
right so i
mean you've got that i kind of feel like
it's you know there's more
there's a lot higher stakes with regard
to cryptocurrency
but um
does that mean that uh the payoff is 100
times greater or does that mean that the
regulatory pushback will be 100 times
higher i
i don't know
but i i think that uh
i think that people spend a lot of time
being fascinated with that and they
ought to spend more time figuring out
how to buy more bitcoin
or they ought to spend more time
that people chronically under under
invest in
businesses
that are centralized custodial compliant
businesses that could plug into bitcoin
right like uh
you can make 100 billion dollars if
you're fidelity plugging into bitcoin
harder
so why don't you go figure out how to
sell that to fidelity if you want to
plug bitcoin into apple computer and it
might be worth a trillion dollars
okay but apple's custodial
but apple's compliant
yeah i get it but it's still a trillion
dollar opportunity
but i'm a crypto person i want to go do
decentralized non-compliant
i mean
okay so here's the issue right like
is it going to be purest pure play
cryptos that are going to make all the
money in the next stage or is it going
to be
compliant custodial institutions that
plug into bitcoin that are going to make
all the money in the next decade
obviously i i happen to believe that the
custodial public institutions have more
opportunity
than all of the crypto entrepreneurs do
the crypto entrepreneurs don't want to
think that because
if you don't have a bank and if you're
not apple computer if you don't have a
country
then you can't do that right
you want to create your own country you
want to create your own bank
you want to create your own social
network
if you don't have it okay
fine
it's free world everybody should be able
to do whatever they can do and and
they'll be something good will come out
of that one out of a thousand one out of
ten thousand things
they'll be the instagram or the facebook
that'll just explode
and they'll be
99.9 failure rate and the rest of things
will all crash and burn
and i don't know which one will succeed
hey michael i i wanted to ask you this
uh today we kind of had this back and
forth on twitter talking about the
volatility of bitcoin moving forward
what are your kind of mental framework
what is your mental framework on that
moving forward do you think now that we
have institutions involved you start to
see that dampening um you know in the
future as well as what are your thoughts
on i know you don't you know delve in
too much to price action per se but like
moving forward do you think we kind of
move away from these traditional
four-year cycles we've seen with bitcoin
because we have a new type of market
participant now
well i i mean there's two different
questions like the four-year cycle
question
and then the volatility question let's
deal with them separately let's start
with volatility let's just enumerate all
the sources of volatility
uh bitcoin's volatile because the wash
trade exemption
a fast money hedge fund can buy a
billion dollars of bitcoin at 65 000
if it trades down to 50 000
they can dump it drive the price down to
45 000 they can buy it back the same day
and they can write it back up again
and they can book
what might be a 250 million dollar tax
loss
and carry it forward
and if they have a 40 or 50 tax rate
maybe they just tax loss harvested 125
million dollars by being volatile okay
so that's a source of volatility wash
trade exemption second source of
volatility
all the um all the uh
unregulated defy exchanges
tons of them right uh security tokens
the fact that i can issue a security
token i can issue um
10 million of them
well i can keep 9 million of them i can
put 1 million in the float
i can then lever it up 20 to 1 or more
and i can cross collateralize it into
another token that i might have
and then i can lean on that and then i
can cross-collateralize that to bitcoin
so the 6500 crypto tokens create
volatility for bitcoin
eath
the ethereum platform creates volatility
for bitcoin lots of it if you look at
the trading pattern of eth versus
bitcoin and i don't know if you've done
it you haven't talked much about it you
ought to
they trade minute by minute
will minute by minute like the same
like the same thing so
in the near term
what you what you can
conclude is that the volatility of the
crypto ecosystem
is clearly correlated and
cross-collateralized and driving the
volatility of bitcoin
so offshore exchanges defy exchanges
security tokens 20 to one leverage
hundred to one leverage cross
collateralization
the fact that you could do wash trading
not just by it's not just wash tax
trading right i could do wash trading on
my yoyo dyn platform and i can wash it
13 times and and print that
with leverage and cross collateralize
that to bitcoin and do it
after hours right the 24 7 365 market
all of those things the lack of
transparency the lack of surveillance
agreements all the stuff that the
libertarians
don't want the regulators to do
that the regulators want to do
or what caused the volatility
right um
i think that uh
that if
if
as the regulation advances
the volatility is going to decrease for
two reasons one
right if you if you can't trade
if you can't trade with 20 tax leverage
or 100x leverage right to be less
volatile
if the wash rule exemption
ends if
if you couldn't just dump the thing and
buy it back the same day
people would hold their loss
right that
that you would start to approach
the way people view like apple stock
like if apple traded down 10 today
i wouldn't necessarily dump it because
i'd have to wait 30 days to buy it back
and my view would be okay i dump it
but then i'll have to buy back at a
higher price
in 30 days and i'm afraid to be out of
the name so
so i think that as the regulators
eliminate excessive leverage and as they
uh normalize the tax treatment and by
the way i'm not just talking about
bitcoin right i mean
we'll talk about tax treatment of all
6500 cryptos
if they normalize that tax treatment
and they eliminate the excessive
leverage and they put in place those
surveillance agreements
and if they if they apply securities law
what would happen if they just uniformly
applied securities law to the crypto
world right now 6 000 cryptos would stop
trading
okay so the near term
near term you go you get more volatility
i think a lot of volatility is being
driven by the fact that if you're
intelligent you realize that a lot of
the security tokens and all the defy
exchanges are going to get
curtailed
it's just a question of how painfully
will they get curtailed how fast
is it going to be a slap on the hand or
is it going to be a truncation
so there's a lot of uncertainty weighing
over the market there and that's
cross-collateralized and that trades
into the bitcoin market cap right that
anxiety
so
on the other side of it if they fix all
that
imagine a world where um
bitcoin wasn't collateral for your eth
and dogecoin and shiba coin and your
yoyo coin trades
right
what if the what if the market decoupled
completely
okay it's a
it creates this there's a parade of
wonderful outcomes right which is
as as the market gets regulated as this
as the defy exchanges and the and the
security tokens start to get regulated
then the volatility from those things in
the bitcoin marketplace deteriorates
right the cap what if 95 of the capital
was bitcoin and five percent of the
capital was the altcoins
then you wouldn't have the tail wagging
the dog
right or in this case maybe the dog
wagging the tail right as the case may
be
um
so
so i think that the the the crypto
economy is this very interesting thing
i mean if you want to say good things
about it you would say
it's they're good marketers right all
the
the entire crypto world crypto exchanges
they market crypto aggressively and they
bring lots of people in the asset class
but the cost the price you pay is like
excessive volatility and
the fact that there's like 37 shiba you
know puppy coins
keeps the big institutions
from getting in in a big way right so
institutional capital that would buy
billions and billions of dollars of
bitcoin and hold it forever
kind of doesn't want to be in the same
party as sheba puppy coin you know
getting tweeted about
right
so
i think that uh as the as the entire
asset class institutionalizes
and as all of the excessive uh highly
levered deregulated behaviors start to
get curtailed
then the volatility driven by crypto
decreases
and at the same time the amount of
capital flowing from institutions
increases
and the time horizon
stretches out
right as and as the view of this goes
from it's a speculative highly levered
asset
where anything goes to
it's a long-term store of value i'm
going to buy it and hold it for my
family for 30 years
right as we rotate from one stream to
the other extreme the volatility starts
to ameliorate
right where is there not that much
volatility like real real estate
like a building
but
there's still some right i mean real
estate goes up in value 20
but when you get to real property
you know especially
property which is a long-term store of
value
you know you're not marketing to market
and um
nobody is
nobody is pledging and they're not
trading in and out of real estate with
dogecoin
and yo-yo coin with leverage on saturday
night
so just look at this just look at this
recent move we had right i mean just
like you know if you kind of look at the
the dichotomy of it if you will like it
was pretty much just we had a bunch of
levered longs right it was like friday
night when we had this massive like 25
wipeout there's like a low liquidity
time you know i watched the order books
pretty closely all the bids got pulled
which were clearly spoofed bids right if
we were in like a regular you know a
regulated environment that kind of
behavior would not take place
you can't trade with more than two to
one leverage
in a regulated environment
you see
you take away 90 of the leverage
when uh when bit max had their incident
last year
right when the the ceo was indicted or
the officers weren't indicted
um
i watched the market and the volatility
the the um the trading volume got cut in
half and the volatility got curtailed by
some dramatic amount
like it correlated very directly
yeah so i think um
that the industry's moving from
entrepreneurial anything goes
unregulated
to institutional
regulated
and that's the maturing of it
and as it moves toward toward
institutional regulation it's going to
be good for bitcoiners right so
the the irony of all this is there's a
there's a lot of people in the community
that are against regulation
but ultimately the regulation is
probably going to be
beneficial in fact i'm almost certain
it's beneficial to bitcoin more so than
anything else
it's not beneficial to a security token
trading offshore without
you know
proper disclosures right
and and a lot of times it's not
beneficial to the entrepreneurs
but it's beneficial to the holders of
bitcoin and it's beneficial to the
institutions and to the governments
and to the civilization
so
you know i guess
if you wanted an analogy
you could look at how we incorporated uh
fire
or um
electricity
and new building materials elevators
into our cities
you know they're all regulated right i
mean like before you can actually take
on you know get a certificate of
occupancy
the fire marshal shows up and they they
walk around to see if your building's
gonna catch fire why
because the chicago fire
because
if your building burns down the middle
of a city you might take out the entire
city right so why because you represent
a systemic risk to the entire city and
then they check the electricity why
because you might electrocute a
four-year-old right i mean
if you touch you ever touch a you know a
power main like you ever do your own
maintenance in your house cut through
the drywall and touch one of those lines
if you've ever done it it's very
memorable you will never forget the
feeling that you had
but we have this we have these
euphemisms you know or idioms in our
english language and one of them is
shocked
okay i challenge you figure out how many
people that use the word shocked have
ever actually been
shocked i've been shocked
like if you've actually been shocked it
is unforgettable experience it's like
it's it's like the scariest thing that
ever will happen to you
and um
that's why if you want to actually roll
electricity across the entire society
you know some rules matter
same on roads you know like a very
simple role like drive on the right side
of the road and not the left side of the
road and you can't swerve from one of
the other and when you see a red light
stop
if i took away those two rolls the red
light rule and the and the right side of
the road rule
you know
your your traffic
accident rate would go up by orders of
magnitude and the average throughput in
the society would
you know
collapse by a factor of 50.
no one would get anywhere
so you have to have some degree of of
regulation in order for technology to
actually be adopted
and
i think in this particular case as the
entire crypto economy gets regulated
it'll grow the ecosystem
but what but the big beneficiary will be
institutions that use bitcoin and
bitcoin
and the losers will be would be bitcoins
like
like the altcoin that wants to be
because all of a sudden there's no
reason for it
right
and then uh and then entrepreneurs that
want to compete with
uh with the institutions
it's like apple computers got a billion
you know more than a billion customers
they could roll out a hardware wallet on
the iphone and they could have a billion
people using it within 36 months would
that be good for bitcoin yes would that
be good for
every company that has a bitcoin
hardware wallet no
right so i think it's pretty important
when you look at all these things to
distinguish between
what's good for bitcoin and a bitcoin
holder
versus what's good for a bitcoin
entrepreneur
and a bitcoin business
versus what's good for the for every
other crypto entrepreneur
and if if you want to
if you draw this concentric ring right
if you're holding a hundred percent pure
bitcoin
then a normalized regulated environment
isn't threatening to you at all right
bitcoins go
if if the united states government
embraced bitcoin regulated at all
bitcoin price would go to 10 million
dollars a coin and if you're just
holding one bitcoin you have 10 million
dollars right
it's very simple
if you're in a pure bitcoin economy
like bitcoin miner
okay is it good for bitcoin miner well
it might be but you wouldn't want to
wake up and find out that the u.s
military is mining bitcoin
because then it wouldn't be good for you
right so so there are some things
that may or may not be good for a
bitcoin miner or bitcoin exchange you're
pure bitcoin though if they basically
regulated
all the other security tokens
then you're fine right pure bitcoin play
you're good no matter what happens in
the rest of the securities and you know
if everybody has to pay their taxes
and if everybody if everybody has to
apply
abide by banking rules and securities
rules and
intellectual property law
and
and the like and and tort law you're
fine you're a bitcoin business
but um
if you're an entrepreneur and the
institutions join
you're not quite so well off
like a startup for a hardware wallet you
know has to compete against square cash
app
and square cash app has to compete
against apple
so and apple has compete against google
right so
so there's competitive risk there
depending on what you are
and uh that's why
that's why you know when people
you know they ask for advice i say well
the obvious the the pure safe haven is
own bitcoin as a store of value
and every single time you move out one
concentric circle and put a twist on it
like i'm gonna mine bitcoin i'm gonna
trade bitcoin i'm gonna get yield on
bitcoin i'm going to do other cryptos
i'm going to do decentralized i'm going
to do a hardware to buy something as you
move out i'm going to offer an insurance
plan i'm going to offer a bank savings
account
now you're competing
and you're all you got to you gotta deal
with competition and compliance
right and and there but any of them
either of them can wipe you out right
you could be non-compliant the
competitive and the regulator shut you
down
or you can be compliant but you're not
competitive
you get shut down
and so
there's concentric rings of complexity
and risk as you go out
and
and this entire environment you know is
it's evolving week by week month by
month
right now there are a lot of advantages
to be in the pure crypto space because
you've got massive leverage and they're
non-compliant and they can do things
that the
centralized institutions can't do
but
the issue is can you cross over
and can you grow up
now you can do business there for a
while but at some point
can you get the licenses and become
compliant and can you bring that company
public right
can you uh
can you actually
can you live to enjoy
the gains that you got by being
entrepreneurial and that is
the challenge that everybody has
okay
take a bitcoin mining example
you could have gone to china and you
could have mined bitcoin very profitably
with free electricity
but sometimes when something looks too
good to be true right
if i said will come here and i'll give
you free electricity for the next 10
years because i just want bitcoin miners
to set up in my country or in my state
would you do it
what happens after two years when i just
change my mind and i say well i notice
all the bitcoin miners are making a lot
of money now i want 20 of that or half
right
if if something looks too good to be
true oftentimes it is too good to be
true or at least the proper way to say
it is there's always a risk the risk
with free electricity in china was
there's gonna be a crackdown
and eventually someone is gonna take
offense to that
right and and now you've got all your
equipment stuck in a place where
where the political environment is not
really favorable anymore
so
so you're an entrepreneur you have these
very interesting challenges
do i do do i do square cash app
which is uh it's custodial wallet and i
only sell bitcoin but i can't do what
you can do with uh
i can't do what binance can do right
i can't do what an offshore crypto
exchange can do i can't give you a yield
on your product i can't give you an
earned product i can't trade dogecoin
okay well they lost a lot of business by
not trading dogecoin and giving yield
right that's the negative but they're
compliant and they have a license that's
the positive
or
you know you can offer a hundred to one
leverage and trade a thousand things
you'll get a lot more customers and you
can have no kyc
you get a lot more customers but there's
a lot of liability there
now how do you go from one to the other
and what should you do
that's what makes the business very
challenging
right that's why that's why you know you
you really need to think that through
very hard and if you're an investor
you've got to figure out where do you
want your exposure to be
but i think i think the subject we're on
is volatility
bottom line is the industry's
it's it's not very tightly regulated and
it's cross-collateralized
cross-correlated and it's highly
volatile but it's getting less volatile
as it gets more institutionalized and as
it gets more regulated and more
institutionalized it'll get less
volatile and
if you wait
until all of these items are resolved
if you wait until every single crypto
exchange is a national securities
exchange with a surveillance agreement
with the sec and they only trade 12
tokens or six
by the way maybe there's only
one will right
if i said to you name me the 12 cryptos
that are property and not a security
what would be the next 11 you would name
there's 6 500 right
name the next 10.
i wouldn't name any of them like
like
i would not bet any material amount of
money on anything
uh if you said buy something which
you're confident is property there's
only one thing in the universe in the
digital universe on commonest properties
bitcoin one thing so
what happens if everything else
disappeared and there was bitcoin well
what up the exchanges well i mean the
point is
so if you wait for the volatility to go
away i mean will that happen i don't
know
the clock forward 10 years and imagine
the entire industry cleans itself up and
they r and they apply a much higher
standard
well presumably bitcoin would be like 5
million or 10 million a coin and
there'll be less volatility but you'll
have missed out on 100x gain
so if you wait for the volatility to go
away
the price you pay is is you lose the
opportunity
but
if you go into bitcoin right now you
accept all the volatility that comes
from
all these things i just laid i named out
or i laid out and the unfortunate
circumstances when the regulator shut
down one security token
and it panics the market is going to
cause volatility and maybe even a down
trade in bitcoin
should it no
it all trade the opposite direction but
sometimes it trades
when there's a risk-off day
everything trades down even though the
most logical thing to do would be to buy
the high quality property and sell the
low quality thing
like if i told you every single security
token every single crypto other than
bitcoins disappearing tomorrow you
should obviously sell them all and buy
bitcoin right
what would happen is everybody would
sell everything
right
they'd sell everything
and then at some point the market would
sort itself out and then they would
realize that there's one safe thing and
they would buy that and that would come
back
right
so that's what i think about uh
volatility and uh
you know you take uh
you take the good with the bad right the
good is the entire crypto ecosystem is
drawing lots of attention and drawing
lots of capital and recruiting
millions of people every month right
and you can't that's not bad
and they are driving this agenda
so there are a lot of good things
and uh
and the negative is you have to absorb
their volatility
with regard to the four year cycle i
mean i again i don't i don't really
believe in the four year cycle anymore i
think we're beyond it
i think that um
i think that uh the the material change
in the state was when uh companies when
bitcoin miners started coming public
i think i think the entire theory of the
four-year cycle is bitcoin miners are
the primary source of bitcoin supply and
they have to sell bitcoin to pay their
expenses
and every year they get paid half as
much so they have to double the price
it's kind of like this supply side uh
you know thing
but i i don't buy that model i never
bought that model i think that the
reason the price goes up is demand
like when somebody
it's a very simple thought experiment
right if apple bought a hundred billion
dollars worth of bitcoin tomorrow the
price is going to 10 million a coin or
some large amount it doesn't matter what
the miners think
right matters what apple thinks
right it matters what the person that's
on the buy side thinks if there's more
demand to buy than there is supply then
the price is going up when a government
you know if if saudi arabia
decided to buy 25 billion dollars of
bitcoin
and that hits the wire
the price is going up other people are
going to bid against them it's going up
right so the price is driven by adoption
it's driven by technology
it's driven by inflation
and though the the three first order
factors of price are adoption inflation
technology
and to a certain extent the technology
is a driver because it drives adoption
right when apple builds bitcoin wallets
into a billion iphones and google builds
it into six billion android phones
and they plug lightning if lightning got
plugged into android and ios
and you could and you could move money
at the speed of light
and if the us jp morgan issued a stable
coin and if apple supported the stable
dollar in bitcoin
and they deployed it to billions and
billions of people
prices going up
right because it because of technology
yeah because of adoption
yeah
and if the inflation rate is 40
in argentina or 80 in some country
everybody with an iphone or an android
phone is flipping all of their currency
to
dollars and they're going to think about
it they're going to flip the dollars to
bitcoin
and the price is going up
so the price is going to be a function
of technology and inflation and adoption
and uh
and the second order effect
the the theoretical austrian economics
driver for price is going to be
productivity of the economy
that adopts bitcoin as its reserve asset
right
like for example if there were 100 micro
strategies
microstrategy generates a hundred
thousand hundred million dollars a year
in cash flow
okay well so we buy a hundred million
dollars worth of bitcoin every year
because we generate 100 million in cash
flow
if there were 10 of us that's a billion
of bitcoin a year if there's 100 of us
there's 10 billion in bitcoin a year if
we grow our cash flows 10
right that
that 10 billion a year becomes 11
billion the next year if we grow our
cash flows by another five percent
becomes 11.5
billion dollars or 11 point whatever
right so productivity is the second
order factor
uh all the productivity of everyone
that's adopted bitcoin as their primary
reserve asset but that's but that's not
nearly as powerful as the first order
factors right inflation technology
and adoption
and adoption is kind of like marketing
but mark that but what could drive
adoption
the government says bitcoin is property
these hundred thousand these hundred all
coins are securities
that would drive adoption
like uh for example
uh if you go on twitter right now
um
if you want to do a little experiment uh
go on twitter right now look at my
profile and look at a tweet i replied to
cash app
and cash app said you can now send stock
or bitcoin
as a holiday gift
and i said great um
would you give cash
11 of the people said they'd give cash
would you give stock three percent so
they would gift stock would you give
bitcoin
right 86 percent
and there's uh a lot of votes on that
thousand votes
okay what does that mean
that means that people don't want to
give securities william
if the token is a security it's going to
be in the three percent apple's this
for example what's a better security
apple google or yo-yo coin
right i mean what would you rather have
facebook apple google twitter
or
dogecoin puppycoin the third
the answer is of course you you really
would rather have the digital monopoly
security so then why are people moving
puppy coin around
because it's not deemed a security it's
like getting treated somewhere between
currency and a property right now our
currency and yeah and a token
and they're not really abiding by
currency law and they're not applying by
security law but it's but but as soon as
you reclassify those things as a as a
currency or as a security
then you're going to see a lurch
20x preference
for bitcoin
so regulation will actually drive
adoption of bitcoin you see
because right now there's confusion
about which of the thousand things i
should gift
as a holiday gift but you see there's no
confusion right here look at my screen
like
like people have a view toward cash it's
like okay i'll send you some digital
dollars
if i can
not for long and they have a view toward
toward property properties better 10x
better 9x better
and their view towards security
securities are risky
why are they risky because people
control them
rightfully so securities are risky and
they're competitive and there's 10 000
different securities
so
before you're having is like
it it was important before you had these
dynamics maybe it was never super
important i don't know i don't really
care i don't think it really matters i
think that what really matters here is
account mason you you might have an
opinion like i count 16 or 17 publicly
traded bitcoin miners by the end of the
year there's probably more
maybe there's 20. do you have a do you
have any
off-the-cuff idea of how many publicly
traded bitcoin mining companies are
yeah i mean i think it's around that
number and and there's five stacks that
are entering
so i'd say you know it's probably around
20 total including those specs
so doesn't that mean we're probably
headed toward two dozen publicly traded
bitcoin mining companies in the first
half of 2022 maybe the first quarter
yeah no i think that's right i think by
the end of q1 we'll probably have
20 plus minus a few
and then and then you know how do you
value those companies right you look at
different metrics you know computational
hash power bitcoin reserves
so the revenue of all bitcoin miners
right now what is it 14 15 billion a
year
i don't know the exact number up top my
head
case for bitcoin i'll tell you i think
it's i think it's about 14 or 15 billion
yeah that sounds right
okay
so the having
the having says i cut that in half
that's seven billion dollar number
so if bitcoin miners stop selling seven
billion in bitcoin that's the same as a
having
now the average market cap of a publicly
traded bitcoin miner is about a billion
dollars 24 bitcoin miners is 24 billion
actually probably more i can count off
the top of my head there's three that
are like 12 15 billion total
okay so you'll probably have about
24
maybe 40 billion dollar market cap but
between 20 and 40 billion dollar market
cap for those miners
now there are
i i can count
two of them that raise 1.2
three of them raised two billion dollars
in the past couple months just three
raised two billion dollars
okay so
i think you can expect that once they're
public uh 25 billion dollars worth of
market cap companies going to raise
about 12 billion in capital a year easy
12 billion dollars of capital what does
a bitcoin miner do with 12 billion
dollars of cash
not enough miners to buy
you can't buy 12 billion worth of miners
like feasibly yeah you can one year
cycle yeah right the entire
in fact they're already spoken for but
that's like a five billion dollar
type business maybe something
five six
so what happens is once you raise more
than that amount of capital and by the
way the miners are running with a 70
profit margin
so you got 24 billion dollars worth of
miners that are going to generate 10
billion dollars of cash flow next year
and they're going to raise 12 billion
dollars of capital so now i've got you
to 22 probably 24 billion in capital
next year flows into the business
you can only spend 6 billion of it
towards bitcoin right you're gonna
you're gonna buy more bitcoin reserve
there's only two things you can do you
can either not sell bitcoin
or you can buy bitcoin
your bitcoin miner
okay so they're both equivalent right
buying bitcoin is the same as not
selling bitcoin so
if i told you
that um the supply of bitcoin on the
exchange was going to shrink by 12
billion dollars next year
how does that compare to the impact of
the having
you're the having is 7 billion
i've got a double having event
so the having really isn't the issue
at the point that the bitcoin miners
generate collectively more than 14
billion dollars in free cash flow
then there really isn't a bitcoin for
sale right there's 14 billion in bitcoin
that's going to be sold theoretically if
all the revenue is sold as bitcoin
14 billion in cash flow takes your stock
to flow to infinity
at 24 billion in cash flow the stock to
flow goes to negative
50 or something you see
if stock to flow is 50 now it goes to
infinity then it goes to negative 50. so
the bitcoin miners become effective
bitcoin sinks they actually start
slurping up bitcoin they don't sell
bitcoin so
so
that's why i don't really focus on the
four-year halving cycle
because there's there's never been an
example of an industry
where
where the miners were producing a
scarcity
and not a commodity
see every other mine right copper miner
silver miners gold miners
oil
drill rigs natural gas
right any kind of commodity producer any
factory they're producing a commodity
and by definition a commodity is
unbounded or unlimited in the amount
that you can produce
but a scarcity
which we would define as bitcoin
is capped at 21 million
this is
name another industry
with 24 publicly traded companies
producing a scarcity
i think i don't think it exists yeah it
doesn't exist i mean it's interesting
you know getting your perspective here
so there's 780 000 bitcoin that will be
mined by the end of 2024 right
and then we'll have the having so
that'll leave another
390 000 to be mine from the cycle 2024
to 2028. so if i'm a bitcoin miner like
i would be levering up as much debt as
possible and and running with the right
of hey i've got 1.2 million bitcoin i
can mine by the end of 2028 and then
beyond that you know
the supply is you know drastically
reduced every four years
so why why aren't you just you know
going to get unlimited debt well to the
points that you said but beyond that
if you can maintain those revenues and
you're really chasing minting new supply
then you should be targeting right now
yeah it's
it's a it's a game of aggression
financial aggression and you got to get
big really fast you got to raise as much
money as you can you have to buy as much
bitcoin as you can
my view would be i would raise as much
capital as i can i'd buy bitcoin then i
would buy all the hash power i can so if
i can buy other bitcoin miners i would
roll up every privately traded bitcoin
miner i could
you can see how this works right if
you're trading with a 10x revenue
multiple or 20 x revenue multiple and
you can buy private miners at a 3x or 5x
or 8x revenue multiple
you just buy them all you buy them for
stock
right and you you uh
all of a sudden go from being a billion
dollar miner to a 10 billion dollar
miner to a 25 billion dollar miner and
then you raise capital either through
equity or debt or converts
and then
you buy up all the hash power or you
lock up all the mining rigs but they're
already sold out for the next year and a
half probably
i would be shocked if the mining rigs
don't get sold out for the next three to
four years
in a in a capital intensive business
where there's a duopoly or something
people sometimes they will just buy
those delivery positions out for five
years or ten years
uh where does it where do you see that
uh take example boeing an airbus
in the airline business
where like emirates or or you know
another eddie odd they would buy like
the next eight years worth of seven
eight sevens just buy them all
lock everybody else out of the market
so um i think that you can buy that up
but you don't need that much capital
just to lock up all the delivery
and uh then you end up
just having excess capital so what do
you do you buy the bitcoin ideally you
buy the bitcoin before it appreciates in
value
you know there's there's one other
example of an industry where you have
a small group of companies
that
that are producing a scarcity
and that would be the digital monopolies
like uh apple and google
you know like like if you end up
creating a monopoly like a legal
monopoly of some sort you you've got
like a arm lock
right one way or the other
so um
so bitcoin
bitcoin is obviously a much better
much much better industry than uh than
any of the other
mining businesses the bitcoin miners are
really much better businesses than other
types of mines
and ultimately the dynamic to watch for
bitcoin price it's going to be
regulation
and it's going to be uh capital markets
activity of bitcoin miners
and it's going to be technology
and adoption in general
and any one of them right
like it it only takes one of them to
drive this for example the bitcoin
miners could on their back they could
drag the entire bitcoin industry if they
just get aggressive and raise 20 billion
dollars next year
this is you know will what if there's no
bitcoin for sale next year from any
miner right like
forget about all the other dynamics
right
so
so that's one possibility any big tech
company
google apple facebook
anybody that built amazon
microsoft any of them to build bitcoin
into their offering
could drive
how much uh square cash up sold 14
billion dollars of bitcoin
they're not the most powerful big tech
company 14 billion one year
if square cashup can drive 14 billion in
one year what do you think google can do
100 billion in one year
what could microsoft do
we talked about this before like
one of my pet peeves is i really think
the killer app uh
for digital property is i post like uh a
hundred thousand satoshi's
uh and get an orange check from twitter
like if anybody could go on twitter and
they could post a hundred thousand
satoshis from a lightning wallet and get
verified
then you could reset all your twitter
profiles so that you have to have a
orange check
or a blue check to post or comment or dm
you
if they upgraded that and said you can
have a a green check for one bitcoin
posted
and i'll give you a purple check if you
can post 10 bitcoin
now you create like this simple
verification architecture now what do
they prove i proved you're credit worthy
what do you do you build it into the
interface and now when everybody wants
to post on my twitter and say i'm stupid
they have to focus first post a hundred
thousand satoshis
and if i block them
then twitter goes back and says you know
you just gotta find a thousand satoshis
for being hostile online
and if someone sends me a direct message
and they don't have an orange check they
don't get through and if they want to
message me you want to message michael
saylor you got to post a hundred
thousand satoshis okay great i'll read
your comment and if they told me to like
you know they're gonna
chop me into a million pieces and i'm
stupid i block they get fined again
if they go online they post some hate
speech maybe they
they forfeit their orange check and they
get fined a hundred thousand satoshis
if you did that
you basically post a cyber security
deposit
that could go viral to like three
billion people
right
everybody on google everybody on
microsoft everybody with gmail everybody
with what's up telegram
messenger
what if everybody online had to post 100
000 satoshis in order to dm you or
comment or post a
post a review
or a little commentary on um
or if you wanted to go watch something
on youtube
do you know
okay here's a little test do you know
how often every week
some eastern european hacker
post a michael saylor bitcoin giveaway
scam
it used to be 55 times a week
in the last two weeks
it's uh
1550 times a week
like every seven minutes
i have 300 people
three teams of people 24 7 every 15
minutes taking them down
and you know when you go online
i look and it's like 15 000 people are
currently listening to michael saylor
live
in his bitcoin giveaway
okay how do they get 15 000 people to
listen to me live every seven minutes
1500 times a week
to scam people
no cost of malice right
no no cost of malicious behavior
okay so what if it cost you right what
what's a hundred thousand satoshi's
right it's like uh
40 bucks forty dollars
what if it cost you forty dollars
every time
in your life
well in order to get like a pass to go
on to youtube
for the average person they would pay 40
dollars in fact i pay 10 a month to use
youtube because i want to avoid the ads
so if you had to post a 40 deposit once
not a big deal for a person
but for the scammer they would have to
pay 60 000 every seven minutes
because they would have this you know
post up forty thousand forty dollars
times fifteen thousand to actually
create the
appearance and then if we introduce like
the purple check or the green check they
would have to post 10 bitcoin what if it
cost you 10 bitcoin every to every seven
minutes
okay now a different situation
now you're monetizing malicious behavior
you know and and evil
right
and uh now back up and ask yourself the
question what does that do for um for
social media
you deliver safety and security
basically safety and civility in
cyberspace to billions and billions of
people
bitcoin is cyber security at the speed
of light
right
cyber security at the speed of light how
do you do it digital property on the
lightning network
why do you need it well because you need
to be able to do micro transactions the
killer application is post 100 000
satoshis to get verified
anybody in the world can do it from your
lightning wallet what's the implication
99.8 percent of all the hostile behavior
disappears online
you've got a totally new revenue model
now you can trust incoming messages on
what's up or telegram or instagram
you know you don't have like russian
bots like hitting you up all the time
i can't read i can't read my twitter dms
i have
50 000
like automated spam bot postings on
my company has three levels of spam
filters
you ever read your i mean you read the
stuff that gets caught in your email
filter
right
it's ridiculous yeah
so the jute the genius of course is
right uh proof of work was created
to stop spam
and we never applied it that way
but now we can right proof of work gives
you digital property digital property
gives you bitcoin bitcoin
moves on lightning
bitcoin also can move on a centralized
rail like square cash app or paypal
but but let's let's focus on lightning
because lightning is one satoshi one
second right
so move bitcoin via a lightning wallet
to social media
and then you've got six billion people
with smartphones everybody basically
posts what what's six billion times
forty dollars
you know
2.4 trillion
forty two hundred forty fourteen i was
140 billion
but
you know you start by by driving a
hundred billion dollars worth of demand
but then what happens when
a business has to actually post
a bitcoin
there's a hundred million businesses
like how many bitcoin do you think
someone should have to post before they
ask you to wire them a bitcoin or wire
them money or something
it's very reasonable that you could
expect the big brands would and big
influencers
would post a bitcoin or even more than
one bitcoin multiple bitcoin so you
could have demand for
hundreds of thousands of bitcoin or
millions of bitcoin from institutional
users
and also a million bitcoin from consumer
and then all these big uh cyber networks
become banks if you will
and then we're back to technology drives
adoption
i mean you see the adoption angle you
see the technology angle
what's the use case the use case is like
cyber security security in cyberspace
eight billion people what's the other
use case
utility
for example
can i read my dms on instagram no can i
read my twitter dms no can i trust a
message from you over telegram no can i
trust a message received
from you over any messaging app no right
if will clementi reaches out to me on
facebook messenger tomorrow how many
steps does it take before i know it's
even you
right so can i
you know i post something on twitter it
says there's 950 comments
you ever try to read the comments i
click on them there's like 20 i can read
all the rest have been like downgraded
is potentially hostile or something
they don't work
right
stuff doesn't work right we have become
numb to the fact that
a lot of stuff doesn't work in
cyberspace can you trust the ratings on
yelp can you trust
the the stuff that people say
what percentage of the twitter accounts
are actually real human beings
can you well we
we know that there are thousands of fake
ones that try to follow you all the time
so
you really
you want to focus on something
don't focus upon the four-year having
cycle
focus upon the regulation
the education
the technology
the integration
and you know it's like
it kind of i find it to be really kind
of a tragedy in a way that there's so
much energy going into reinventing the
wheel like bitcoin and lightning right
bitcoin is the property network
lightning is the transaction network
okay you've got a non-custodial
transaction network you got a
non-custodial
asset network
okay so there's your wheel
why do we got to reinvent it 18 000
times
why don't we figure out how to plug the
wheel
into facebook and google
and amazon and apple and microsoft
and
youtube
and fill in the blank every single thing
we use in our life that's either unsafe
or full of garbage
or difficult
or lacking signal
if we do that
then um
we'll just bring a a a huge amount of
good
to the civilization
you know you'll drive up the value of of
bitcoin by
two orders of magnitude
and you don't really need to invent
you know a ton more features
you don't need that many more features
we can polish the lightning a little bit
but really the innovation should be in
the application layers
and the network layers
like how about like why don't we just
use bitcoin to eliminate all email spam
in the world for everybody forever
how about that
can we do that yeah how long will it
take 36 months
good thing bad thing
obviously a good thing
what politicians gonna actually fight
that
what do you need you need bitcoin plus
lightning plugged into office 365
with an orange check
that's the opportunity that i'm really
enthusiastic about
you know it's it's there's so many
things like that that are sitting there
right what's that worth i mean like
each of these bitcoins worth a trillion
dollars to the p l
on
on the operating side of the business to
all the big tech companies trillion each
google microsoft facebook apple they
could all generate a trillion dollars of
operating value by building it into
their products and their services
properly they just haven't figured it
out yet
and then it's worth another trillion
dollars on their balance sheet to their
stock if they plugged it into as their
treasury asset
and uh
every other company you know pretty much
every company on earth i figure you
could probably double the market cap of
the company if they figured out how to
integrate digital property
into it
either on the balance sheet side the p l
side
and they're all straight forward and
they don't require another token
right so
i would focus on that do you guys have
other stuff you wanted to cover on your
list
i'm good mason if you if you have
anything i think yeah i think it's a
good spot to start wrapping it up i know
we're way over on time here so
yeah
i think you answered
our whole list through through different
segments
exactly exactly okay
hey michael i just wanted to say you
know thank you so much this was
incredible um you know this is this
would be a huge christmas gift to all
the the whole the holders out there so
um i just i just wanted to say we really
appreciate your time and coming on i
mean this conversation was just
incredible do you have any kind of last
words you want to leave the hobblers out
there with um especially as we head into
this new year
happy holidays
my last words are i just think
everything macroeconomically is great
for bitcoin we're going through
volatility and i think i explained to
you why we have volatility
and uh
i think that
everybody should remember their laser
eyes
right the whole point of laser eyes is
focus you've got you've got digital
property you've got bitcoin you've got
lightning
if you just hold on and think out 10
years 20 years 30 years the entire world
is going to have to evolve the
regulatory apparatus all the technology
platforms all the applications
there's a lot of things that are going
to
evolve but you know if you just stay
focused through thick and thin
ultimately things will work out well
because
because it's rational everything i've
described is rational and because it's
rational somebody will do it at some
point it's just a question of the
sequencing of things
the thing you don't want to do right now
is you don't want to lose focus
right you don't want to lose focus you
don't want to lose conviction you know
you've got the winning strategy don't
allow the volatility and all the
marketing hysteria and everybody with
the conflict of interest
to shake your commitment
right that the world's going to be full
of 10 000 ventures and every venture is
going to say blah blah blah this is
better than bitcoin because of this or
whatever but
the the test of a really good venture is
are they leveraging
bitcoin and lightning right especially
bitcoin are they leveraging it to do
something better or are they trying to
reinvent it
and if they're leveraging it for
something better then it's just a risky
venture
right it's a venture it's a risky
and and you can choose to invest or not
and buy the product or not
but if they're trying to reinvent it
then they've lost focus they've lost
their way
right and and uh that's that's a
different thing entirely
caveat emptor
i think um
i think we're really so close to a major
breakthrough here
and i hate to see people lose faith
because
they're getting bounced around
as they go down the rapids
because i
i think if you roll the clock back 12
months or 18 months and you told me
everything that was going to happen
it would have exceeded my wildest dreams
like i i think it's been all good
and once you think about it from a
fundamental point of view like the way
that bitcoin has been embraced by the
world
i think you realize that we're on the
right path
we just uh got to keep working
and you got to work through the trolls
and the haters and the critics
and then everybody that wants to
reinvent the wheel
because they have a personal agenda
and and you gotta nurture
nurture um
the real virtues in the community
right there's and if you're a bitcoin
exchange right then
be thinking about how to incorporate
lightning and and upgrade the exchange
of your bitcoin miner obviously you got
to figure out how to upgrade your mining
operation and
figure out what is it you can do right
now to increase the value
of the entire ecosystem
and you know the
the checklist every morning is kind of
simple it's like
get up
educate somebody on bitcoin work on a
project
to buy more bitcoin
right maybe work on a project to make
bitcoin better make the entire ecosystem
better right add value
uh and then finally
figure go learn and study and figure out
what happened in bitcoin you know since
you last looked to keep yourself
update
and then the next day do it again right
and that's focus
and i think that the really the great
companies do that
great great business people do that and
and where you start to stray off the
path and you lose your focus
right you get distracted you get
insecure right that's it's dilutive all
these things are dilutive distractions
right and the dilutive distractions
always come in like a good idea
but you gotta ask the question is it a
great idea is it is it gonna make
bitcoin better and is it gonna get me
more bitcoin and is it gonna educate
more people on
bitcoin or is it just a different thing
because the world's got 10 000 other
ideas
you tweeted something the
you tweeted something the other day i
i'm gonna i'm gonna um mess up the
wording here but it's something like
when there's nothing to do do nothing
right i think that that's kind of a good
way to kind of wrap that up there warren
buffett quote yeah the trick is when
there's nothing to do
do nothing
it's like that scene in the bruce lee
movie you ever see it's probably end of
the dragon where bruce lee is basically
beating up 250 guys it's like a a
slugfest and he's just overcome like a
hundred of them and he's the best
fighter you know in the entire
palace
and then at some point the you know the
the evil guy drops captures bruce lee in
some kind of like
octagon and drops glass all around him
so he's trapped in the octagon and he
can't get out and they can't get in
and he sees the hundred fighters and
they're all getting ready to come after
him and he looks
and he puts his nunchucks
over his shoulders and he sits down in
the lotus position and he just conserves
his energy and he waits
he's not gonna get rattled he's gonna
wait until the walls come up and when
the walls come up he's gonna start
fighting again
but it's such a it's a classic zen-like
moment right that is so
iconic right sometimes there's nothing
to do do nothing
right
thank you for giving me a platform guys
and and for the opportunity to talk
about this
and keep up the good work i mean you're
both making extraordinary contributions
to the community
and uh brings a smile to my face
thank you what's going on michael
take care have a good holiday
you too bye
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