Tech Themes thru History—Harder, Smarter, Faster, Stronger | The Saylor Series | Episode 3 (WiM003)

they're dominating because they're able

to

deliver force

faster harder stronger smarter

so if we ask the question what is money

money is the highest form of energy that

human beings can channel

bitcoin

is channeling human ingenuity

into making it better

and and every commodity is channeling

human energy into making it worse the

lowbrow or the

the

the historic

colloquial term is total right hold on

for dear life or just total or save

whatever and the highbrow term would be

adopt as a treasury reserve essay

[Music]

hey guys so as you learned uh by

watching the what is money show

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cost basis

and finally i suggest to everyone to

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through bitcoin alright thanks

hey guys welcome back to episode three

of the what is money show

here in the sailor series

so we've covered with michael saylor so

far uh the rise of man

through the stone

stone ages through the iron ages we went

into the dark ages we saw how mankind

can have a misstep that causes him to

regress a thousand years

and up into the steel and industrial age

and

today uh we're gonna go even further

into the future and the the the arc of

all this is

we're seeing

how mankind uh does take these

evolutionary steps forward in terms of

both his morality and and the tools um

that he conducts his life with

and we we see as michael says that the

natural selection

through this process helps mankind

become smarter faster stronger

and we're coming to see that

actually the defensive attributes of

technology tend to be

more important than offensive attributes

over time

and um

this is just leading us deeper into

and closer to bitcoin which you know as

we'll talk about later is the ultimate

monetary defense of technology

and uh in that sense

humans the reason we're able to progress

in this way the reason we're different

than any other animal is because we are

actually capable of harnessing and

channeling energy across

uh these field lines of our intellect so

we can we can form these abstract

concepts and ideas and then actually

energize them by harnessing harnessing

energy in the natural world

and

that's why

in a geopolitical sense you know naval

power has been the force that sort of

governs

the world you know he who dominates the

sea dominates the world

and uh in that context we're looking now

as we progress into the digital age

as digital space being this this new

high seas if you will

and um

so in this episode we're going to get

into a lot of that and then we'll also

finish off by talking about

an area that mr sailor is an expert in

which is the history of scientific

revolutions

and we're going to talk about in

particular the the technology diffusion

s-curve

which is when a new idea starts to

permeate a society it starts out

relatively slowly before it hits its

inflection point and becomes rapidly

adopted at an accelerating pace before

finally uh hitting a point of full

market penetration it starts to level

out

and this will be uh important to

comprehend in terms of not only all the

innovations we've seen recently

especially the internet but also the

path that we would expect bitcoin to

continue to follow

and then finally we'll touch on

[Music]

war you know and how it is an accelerant

innovation

um and how it can it can accelerate us

down that path of the technology s-curve

and leaves us eventually with with

technologies that would be

perceived as miracles to primitive man

right as michael will say later that

sufficiently advanced technology is

indistinguishable from magic so

i hope you're pumped you know we're

still building this big foundation

getting into modernity um and this is

going to be one of the final episodes

that gets us there so with that let's

get into episode three so i remember the

name of the of the jewish bankers it's

the

warburgs if you want a great

vignette

on on

why it's important to have have capital

that's mobile

study uh just read any history of the

warburg and what what their family went

through and what all the jewish families

went through

in the 30s in germany

and what the bankers had to do to move

capital out of the country

and um

and you get

you get a very poignant um

punctuated uh

appreciation for the need of having

secure

capital that you control

um

so

there are some i think general themes of

technology throughout history

if you look across all of these

the general theme is is

human beings marching toward being

harder smarter faster

and stronger

and um

everyone that succeeded all every empire

every individual every company

they all found a way to be harder

smarter faster and stronger

um

george r.r martin

he wrote a bunch of books he's known for

game of thrones but he also wrote a

bunch of books

on superheroes or at least he called

them wild cards

and it's about a bunch of um

superhero or super people that have

genetic mutations and

and um they get it from some virus

and it's a it's a universe full of

normal people

and then uh and then jokers people that

have been hideously disformed by this

virus and then aces people that have um

been given superpower and

he takes a very

modern view of it and he says he starts

to analyze superpowers

guy figures out he can shoot laser beams

out of his hands or another

woman can be invisible or some dude can

be a thin man

and he goes

there are a lot of these superheroes but

but after a while we quickly realized

that the most powerful ones

were the ones with defensive

super powers

defensive attributes overcome all the

offensive attributes

in a battle so for example

the guy that's indestructible with no

other superpower

can pick up a machine gun and kill

everybody

and you can shoot him a million times

but he's indestructible

whereas the guy with laser beams jumping

out of his hands he's just as mortal as

you and me

and uh and you hit him with one rock he

goes down and he's dead

so it's the it's the impossible to kill

ones

that end up winning all the battles

between superheroes and the smackdown

and the ones with the sexy things are

sexy really cool

superpowers they're useless

because because the guy that's got none

of those he just gets a bazooka and he

just fire i was like i'm indestructible

so i'm gonna set off an atomic bomb in

the city and kill everybody but myself

because i'm indestructible right it's

pretty easy to win the war

if you're indestructible

and um

it causes you to come to conclusion

about

you know history and who wins in history

unbreakable is better

anti-fragile

is best

so the superhero that's good is the one

that you hit him and you can't hurt him

but the superheroes that are most

frightening are the ones where

you shoot him with a laser beam and now

they can shoot your laser beams back at

you

and

and you mind read them and they absorb

your mind reading and they can mind redo

and you fly the speed of sound and now

they can fight the speed of sound it's

like

like that character and

what is it an x

i think it's rogue an x-men or yeah or

siler and heroes or maybe rogue it's the

one that absorbs your power and plays it

back at you

you know pretty soon it's like i'm

indestructible and i have every other

power and you just better get out of the

way yeah and that's anti-fragile right

yeah i'm looking for the fight like i'm

looking for people because i'm just

going to absorb their thing

so

you see that theme through history

uh the really successful um

governments empires organizations they

kind of

they're continually fighting they're

continually absorbing

the romans absorbed the carthaginian's

navy in 90 days

but but it's it's easier said than done

right

that it wasn't like some roman

politician that said these are

carthaginian ships they're inferior to

us we will invent our own ships

it's like not too proud to copy

not too proud to absorb it

um

this kind of principle can explain the

success of the united states and the

wars of the last century or more it's

like um

why do we

why did we win in world war one world

war ii why you know why is america

america well

there's two narratives or there's

millionaires here's one one is because

we're more patriotic and we're righteous

and we're better

the other one is

the europeans

were fighting in europe

and we

so

we were fighting

they were soft when you're dropping

bombs in the middle of suburban germany

right you're attacking the soft

underbelly of the citizens

in germany

or the soft underbelly of the citizens

in france or you know the battle of

britain right

this is uh

this is the the citizen population being

ravaged by a war

and that destroyed their economies right

destroyed their cultures right same

happened in russia

same happened in italy happened

and it's happened in china the chinese

fought a war in china soil

the japanese fought you know sort of a

portion of a war right on their own soil

with atomic warheads

on the other hand the us hadn't fought a

war on u.s soil since 1865.

okay so who's harder right

back to this missile idea right

if you can throw a missile 3 000 miles

and your enemy can throw a missile back

300 miles at you

it's pretty simple i have a rifle you

have a pistol

i stand back a thousand

feet

your pistol's good for 200 feet

i take 100 shots

eventually one hits

you're a perfect shot

it doesn't matter

longer arms

so

this this idea right are you

are you unbreakable or or what is back

to terrain what is the terrain the

geography determines a lot of things

um

if you take

a modern

ship if you if you take

take a take a

a modern yacht built in the year 2020

with every piece of modern equipment on

it

now try to sail it

to afghanistan

you probably won't get there

something will probably break

try to sail it

try to sail it to rome without stopping

in a port along the way

you probably won't make it

robert nobody does

like they all stop and hide somewhere

it's really

hard to move stuff over the ocean

thousands of miles

it's really hard now

why don't you try to sail an armada of a

thousand ships three thousand miles

in order to invade

america

right germans couldn't sail

13 miles

you know across the straits of dover

right

you know the japanese couldn't cross

from japan to china during the kamikaze

you know

and that's not very far

it's really hard

it's only one guy that ever pulled it

off william the conqueror in 1066 nobody

else managed to cross 13 miles that's

your hydraulic moat

it's really hard it explains the culture

of the uk

it explains

the culture of the united states it

explains a lot of other cultures it

explains the balance of power i think if

you just say

here's someone that you couldn't kill

who could kill you

i i had the option

to fight on your turf

but you did never have the option to

fight on

my turf now

that in and of its way is the reason

that uh security

uh

is so incredibly important to

the bitcoin network

what is important is that it not break

that it not that it doesn't

if i'm indestructible i don't have to be

the fastest

the shiniest

the whatever anything

i just have to be indestructible

if i'm indestructible

what

the indestructible man goes and buys a

machine gun and he's the most powerful

superhero in the room

right right right the indestructible

blockchain

goes and buys a digital app

or another crypto network as a you know

an

off-chain app

or a nexus a lightning

or a binance

or a coinbase or square cache or

whatever

and it's just fine it's the most

powerful

network in the room

because the thing

that made it the winner was its

indestructibility its immortality

right not the fact that it could shoot

laser beams from its fingers or it was

beautiful

or it could fly with pretty wings or it

was invisible right all of these other

things like privacy transaction all

these other things

they're features and they're interesting

but they pale compared to the

characteristic of immortality

right

being indestructible in the here and now

pretty useful superhero power

being indestructible and never aging

double useful superpower

and as for the rest

if you're an open software protocol

someone's going to code an extension to

your protocol to give you every other

cool power anybody wants

like i can find a way to construct every

other superpower by

by

hook or crook and that makes me

anti-fragile and now i'm like the

frightening

impossible to stop

that's superhero great analogy uh

cause of mine that old saying that if

you wait long enough by the river

you can see the bodies of your enemies

float by you know it's like because

bitcoin is unchangeable and it's just a

rock-solid

absolute scarce quantity of 21 million

and that is the primary property and

money that matters right as you i love

the analogy you gave too of

when someone asks you about the eps of

your company they only care about the

fully diluted cap table right who gives

a if you've got 18 outstanding

whatever whatever just just tell me the

fully diluted number and that's what

bitcoin is right it's like you know it

doesn't matter if there's only three

million have been lost or 18 million in

a half mine so far and three and a half

to go it's all that really matters is

that fully diluted figure of 21 million

and that the scarcity cannot be

compromised and then it has enough

anti-fragility on top of that to absorb

other market-proven features that's all

you want in money right

yeah the mining rate

it's like like a secondary um

particular effect that happens in the

first few years of its evolution but

exponentially becomes irrelevant it's a

second order

driver the first order drivers

you know are the hardness infinitely

hard

and then

adoption and utility

and inflation

in the um in the fiat reference frame

that it's operating in

um

a couple more points i you know

that are worth making on um

technology and

and

human history

humans

triumph

throughout history

by channeling energy

right that that all of these things come

down to how did i channel energy

so

navy power

right the british the british navy ruled

the sea

the phoenicians the venetians the greeks

the romans the americans today

controlled the seas via their aircraft

carriers and by naval power

and naval power is just bringing

overwhelming force to bear

faster

stronger force that's faster that's

harder than any other force anywhere on

earth i park in an

aircraft carrier somewhere

you know and death reigns from above

and um

so we've seen all empires are driven by

a naval power

in time

we invented airplanes

you know

and then air power became the thing

right

and uh air power is all again about

death from above right the most powerful

navy idea is airplanes flying off an

aircraft carrier first it was the

battleship i show up in your harbor and

i blast everything then it became

air power

and uh if i could get above you

and we saw this conclusion

it is impossible for a modern nation

state to function if it does not control

its own airspace

if

you saw that in the first gulf war the

second gulf war

the united states or

especially the united states air force

could pretty much bomb any country back

to the stone age in a matter of a week

once they lost their

air supremacy once you lose control your

airspace there's no hope for you

you can take out every port

every power reactor every generator

every serious building they're all gone

death from above there's nothing you can

do

you're at the bottom of the gravity well

right and with technology today someone

can sit out six miles up

you can't shoot down a plane moving high

speed six miles up you have to fight the

gravity while to get there they're just

working opposite it's an energy thing

right so i'm moving from a lower energy

state i'm on the ground moving armies

around to a high energy state i have a

boat i'm moving heavy medicines around

to a higher energy state i'm above you

dropping munitions on you

then after that

became nuclear power right you harnessed

nuclear power and that ended world war

ii pretty definitively in a hurry

then we go to

space satellite power

and you go up in the gravity wall some

more

and that manifests itself primarily with

gpes right

if you look at the impact of having your

global positioning satellites that's

what allows me to drop a laser guided

bomb or a drone anywhere on earth and

guide it day or night to anything right

and that's a massive source of american

supremacy controlling those gps

satellites

right and uh you lose them big problem

too

right

one of my favorite books and i noted is

the moon is a harsh mistress

and in it robert heinlein

he writes about a bunch of um loonies

basically

libertarians that live on the moon that

believe in making their own way and

and their motto is there ain't no such

thing as a free lunch

abbreviated to tons of and he introduced

that idea

and they take it to the extreme which is

like your air is not even free on the

moon you pay for everything you pay for

water you pay for food you pay for air

everybody pulls their own weight

no one waits for a bailout there's no

bailout coming from anybody

you know and uh they're not big fans of

authority and i don't like being told

what to do

and and uh the plot of the book kind of

winds on that they're they're being

oppressed by um

earthlings

who are making them work as slaves and

they're taking 90 of their economic

um economic productivity and shipping

back

basically their future to earth and

they're and they're gradually

suffocating and starving them to death

and uh and it's just onerous taxation

without representation

but uh onerous

so the learnings decide to fight back

you know with the help of an ai computer

the first ai computer i have to remember

the name of the computer is mike

by the way

right

and their technique is they realize they

got a catapult and they start tossing

rocks

down the gravity well

and they just take a big rock

put it in their catapult and it doesn't

take that much force to you know toss it

off the moon because they're low g

right they're tossing a rock out of a 1

8 g or whatever and it hits the it hits

the earth goes into a trajectory and of

course it starts picking up speed

and by the time it lands

it's

like an atomic warhead

wow they just start tossing them at

random places

until the until the uh the federation

empire that's oppressing them

decides that maybe it's had enough

wow

and of course the lesson is right it's

humans

channeling energy but they're channeling

gravitational energy and a lot of it and

there's a lot more energy

than the stuff that we have

all through human history since a

million years ago to today

it's really the story

of intelligent people looking around for

where is the energy coming from

and how do i channel it in a network in

order to achieve something

harder smarter

faster

stronger that's such an interesting

point

it's back to the terrain of the battle

right they're holding the ultimate high

ground being on the moon

and another thing this this calls to

mind is um i don't know if you've read

the book the sovereign individual

i don't know if i read it all i've read

i've heard of it but so the the

yeah i've written written in the late

90s and it's been

relatively prescient in a number of

domains they predicted

the rise of what they called narrow

casting as opposed to broadcasting which

we call social media today they

predicted the rise of anonymous digital

cash being disruptive to the nation

state which we would think bitcoin is

and they also predicted the

digitization of securities so other

property rights going away from a

government

function to be to be

provided via software

and one of the things that was

interesting there is they

they compared digital space to the high

seas basically saying the high c the

reason whoever controls the high seas

controls the world is because that's the

most frictionless environment right you

can move things

uh with the least energy on the seas

once you can conquer them so whoever

controls that domain sort of runs the

world but also because it's frictionless

it's very difficult to project

dominion over the high seas right so we

have we don't have law really we have

international waters kind of everywhere

in the world and they compared that and

analogized it to digital space

where it's this frictional and

frictionless space that whoever is

dominant there will be dominant in the

21st century but it will also be very

difficult to project the minion so you

won't have it'll be unregulated largely

so they're using that to kind of make

the case for

for digital cash and the fact that

people would be able to escape

uh oppressive regimes right once you get

your capital in the digital space you're

sort of no longer under the thumb of the

government or the local oppressive

monopoly so i just think it's

interesting how it always just comes

down to the terrain right

[Music]

yeah

and i agree with you on that

and um

i i agree that the digital domain has

has weakened all the geographic terrain

constraints

um

it's pretty clear that

information is flowing across borders

and even when people try to stop it

um they're uh

they're defeated by vpns and

not browsing and

you know

other techniques

and we see we see places where

information is illegal it's leaking

where capital is uh what's illegal to

move capital is leaking or it's illegal

to move information is leaking where

one person's um

one person sedition is another person's

news or truth

depending on who controls the government

and uh

that's something

i wrote about in uh my book the mobile

wave you might be interested to note and

i think 1998

we created a product called narrowcaster

oh really

yeah we made a lot of money off it and

it did just that it actually sent out

personalized information so

i was i was always a big fan of that so

i think

it's it's interesting the way that's

evolving

probably

probably the key theme

there is

technology is empowering the individual

and giving them more sovereignty that's

right and it's it's harder

and harder

in those ways for the government to

control

what information you get and then how

you manage your assets

right

it's a very

twisty complicated subject because the

government's getting more power over you

in some areas as they get less power of

you and other areas right

and it's spinning fast

and you could argue that that trajectory

is taking us closer to a reflection of

natural law right because natural law

would would say that sovereignty in here

is within the individual

our our rights are not given to us from

government they actually

uh

inherit naturally within us

so it seems to me that

and it's complicated because we've never

seen a world like that right again we've

always needed government to sort of keep

the peace and

enforce contract law and satisfy

property rights but now in digital the

digital age at least there's the

possibility of some of those functions

kind of falling to software

yeah as more and more

things dematerialize the software and

they and they move into cyberspace

it seems like it

it gets harder for any one government

to assert control over the things that

take place virtually

so

there's a lot of virtual

empowerment going on but

there's a lot of other things going on

too yeah

yeah

you know

i guess i i would end i'd end this

section with

just a couple of

dynamics that i think i i've seen over

and over again the technology

you know um when i was in mit i studied

the history of science and

i read about the structure of scientific

revolutions and i just i studied all

different types of

technology diffusions and

and um there are certain things that pop

out

you know a lot of times you'll see an s

curve

where

it'll start slow

and it'll accelerate until it reaches

diminishing returns and then all of a

sudden it's not an interesting

technology anymore you see that a lot

but

one of the lessons of history is

it's very difficult to figure out when

the curve starts

and

it's hard to stop it once it starts but

it's it's a lot easier to invest in it

and to forecast it once it starts

but

before it starts people will say well

next year this will commercialize or in

two years or in five years ten years

you could be off by two years you could

be off by a hundred years

like you remember uh

google glass

yeah

how big that was gonna be and

and how that was a lead balloon and how

many years is it after google glass and

it's still not going to happen

next year either

technology

fails

until it succeeds that's another trend

and another theme so you see over and

over again people pick a technology to

say it'll never work it'll never work

it'll never work

in the year

1902 before the wright brothers flew

that next year

if you'd asked the most learned people

on earth they would have given you a

hundred reasons why airplanes will never

fly

and they would do a hundred examples of

how they didn't fly

and they would talk you to death

and uh the thing about these paradigm

shifts is

oftentimes

it's not the learned individuals that

make the breakthrough

aircraft

wasn't uh aircraft weren't designed by

professors of aeronautics and

astronautics and

engineering and fluid dynamics and

mathematicians they all failed miserably

right the wright brothers were bicycle

mechanics

they had a bicycle shop

tinkerers

they're the ones that ushered in the age

and uh they did it against all

conventional wisdom

and on the other hand leonardo da vinci

tried to develop his own flying

contraption every brilliant person for

hundreds of years tried it failed

all failed and then some dudes in dayton

ohio that have a bicycle shop succeed

um it happens like that

you know the story of um

john harrison

inventing uh discovering a method to

determine longitude on the ocean which

is it's articulating the book longitudes

amazing story

everybody knew how to find latitude it

was easy you just sight against the

north star but longitude is very hard

because all this they're spinning all

the time required massively complicated

calculations they gave it to the

newtonian professors

at cambridge and oxford the smartest

mathematicians in the world the smartest

astronomers in the world no one could

figure it out

finally they posted a 10 000 pound prize

and john harrison

who was not a mathematician his clock

maker

figured it out and the way he figured it

out is he made a clock that was accurate

and they put one clock

on the this ship and they set it

to the greenwich observatory the royal

observatory which is in greenwich

england

hence the term greenwich mean time

greenwich mean time comes because you

sail down the timbs past the royal

observatory in greenwich you set your

clock on that and then you have another

clock

and then every day at noon if you're in

the caribbean you look up and then you

set that clock and then you just

subtract the time on the one from the

top of the other multiply by 15 degrees

and you've got your lawn longitude

it was a tinkerer's solution to

a problem everybody else wanted to solve

it with star charts

and tables and complex math

but of course

ships captains in the middle of the

caribbean or in a storm they can't do

complex math they're just

stay alive

so you see lots of examples

in history where people try to do

something and they either accidentally

discover it like penicillin or um a

tinkerer discovers it and not the

educated and then all the professors

crap all over it

and they all swear it'll never work

and the tendency is

is either to reject it people don't like

change

or it doesn't get embraced until

everybody dies

or until there's a war

and war has a way of opening your mind

because

when someone drops a bomb on your head

and you're burning or screaming then the

pain causes you to take a more

open-minded attitude so a lot of stuff

happened after world war ii and happens

in various wars and you can trace

without human history that drives

innovation faster

you know generational change will drive

it faster

people keep trying it and then

just because it's failed a thousand

times what doesn't mean it won't succeed

but when it does succeed

then it's probably unstoppable for a

while

and hence

you know you just get to this phrase

which is cut which is kind of

punctuation for

modern technology

arthur c clark writes

any sufficiently

advanced technology

is indistinguishable

from magic

and it was a great quote

it's a quote that i put on the back of

my prospectus when my company came

public in 98

i believed it then

we have thousands and thousands of

examples of magic things in our lives

today

literally magic things

that are just technical things

it's always been that way and

and to a to a primitive man right a

rifle looks magical

or an airplane

and now

and we're starting to deal with uh with

some software technologies and digital

technologies that

don't just look magical to a primitive

man

they're gonna look magical to a modern

right

because they just really are getting

pretty magical

[Music]

all right guys so that was episode three

of the sailor series

hope you enjoyed that we continue our

progress towards modernity

um and laying this really solid

intellectual foundation

uh through the lens of technology

anthropology

uh civilizational development military

all of these aspects that lead us to the

importance of bitcoin as mine

and uh as i said to the in the intro

i like to think of this whole arc as an

evolutionary process right i actually

consider that

evolution is the inorganic form of

innovation or you could say that

innovation is the organic form of

evolution so it's all

they're both about

colliding ideas together and with

reality to test which

ideas strategies

and approaches work best right which

offer the highest utility

to the the organism or

human being

that's that's set an intention in a name

and um it's through this this iterative

process as sailor says it makes us

harder faster and stronger

and

i think what's what's starting to shape

up here because i think you'll see is

that

the defensive attributes tend to be even

more important than offensive attributes

so

if you have an ability to defend

yourself say behind a wall of water like

here in the united states we're defended

on both sides by like by large walls

water in the atlantic and the pacific

ocean we have this natural

defensive advantage

so it's uh

really difficult to

invade us

um without having long-ranging weapons

uh when we dominate

the naval territory already right like

we are the dominant naval force because

of our access to the oceans and our our

protection from from hostile powers and

i liked the the analogy that

sailor gave when he talked about

um the superheroes the the george rr

martin superheroes that

i think they were called the aces where

the

it wasn't the superhero with the most

uh

the best offensive capability right the

laser beams out of the eyes whatever

that became

uh dominant it was actually the one that

was indestructible because you could he

could essentially subject himself to any

situation

and survive so uh which reminded me of

that saying that

which i think is from sun tzu

might be laozi if you wait long enough

by the river you live to see the bodies