SaylorCorpus

How Bitcoin Changes Everything | The Saylor Series | Episode 17 (WiM065)

WiM Media · 2021-10-27 · 1h 29m · View on YouTube →

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[Music]

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so that that's mobile

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payments and then retail banks if you go

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to commercial banking

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well with commercial banks you've got um

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treasury services for

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companies

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and you've got credit lines so

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corporations like an individual in a way

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i've got a bunch of cash i want to i

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want to generate yield on it call that

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treasury services

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or i have a lot of assets i want to

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generate yield on them

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and i also

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want to borrow against my assets

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and so i need a commercial grade bank to

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do that

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i tend to have slightly different

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requirements and i'm going to move in

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greater scale and i may have

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different accounting issues but the

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commercial banking

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application and the retail banking are

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pretty similar

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um exchanges are another application of

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bitcoin and

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and uh

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there people want to trade assets

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against each other and and trade

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derivatives against each other

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and uh you can imagine infinite assets

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and infinite derivatives

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um they will be compliance heavy

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right do you need to comply with the

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cftc or the sec or or who knows what and

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that gets very complicated

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it's a big business

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[Music]

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i mean the next big area of applications

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would be corporations

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and uh here

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any company that simply buys bitcoin

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becomes an application of bitcoin

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and this is not a technical application

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if we take microstrategy as an example

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when microstrategy buys bitcoin

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then microstrategy stock

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becomes a derivative of bitcoin

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and now microstrategy stock is trading

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on a nasdaq a regulated exchange

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so what you did is you took one asset

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sitting on the blockchain and you used

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it to back another asset and equity

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that's trading on the nasdaq and then

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you back a third

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asset calls and puts and leaps

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that are trading on a on a futures

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exchange like the cme or something

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and you may have even issued debt

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that trades

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privately over the counter

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through a set of broker dealers

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each of those are applications of

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bitcoin

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well how big are they they could be a

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billion they could be 10 billion you

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could have 100 billion dollars worth of

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these applications

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[Music]

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why do they exist

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because people want them

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right because there are a lot of people

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that want to trade stocks on nasdaq they

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don't want to trade bitcoin

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on coinbase

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why don't they want to because they took

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a decade to raise 100 billion dollars

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and they promised a bunch of pension

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funds that they would only trade

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equities on nasdaq and now it would take

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them another five years to reset

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expectations with the pension funds

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[Music]

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maybe they want that because

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they like there are companies that do

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convertible arbitrage they have 10

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billion dollars

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they raised it from pension funds and

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endowments and they do convertible

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arbitrage that's their strategy

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and that means they have to be able to

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buy the convertible debt and short the

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stock

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and try to generate a yield

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and they've got billions of dollars to

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do that thing so they get up that's what

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they want to buy

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there's a phrase on wall street

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when the ducks are quacking feed the

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ducks

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the ducks want to buy convertible debt

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give them convertible debt if they want

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to buy equity give them equity if they

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wanted to buy bitcoin then they would

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buy the bitcoin right but um but these

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applications meet different needs

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if you're a consumer

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you know you're a consumer you want to

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download square cash app and you want to

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smash buy 37 dollars worth of bitcoin

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and you want to do it in two clicks

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you don't really want you know a super

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complicated trading console with like 16

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bloomberg screens

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you know with futures and options and 3

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700 trading pairs

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that's not what you want

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you want to smash by 37

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so sometimes simplicity is is the right

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thing sometimes you want simpler than

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sometimes you know you've been doing

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business with the same private wealth or

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client advisor you want to call them on

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the phone

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yeah you know and you want to say buy

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ten thousand dollars worth of that

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bitcoin

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and you want them to kind of buy a

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bitcoin etf

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and you know

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the the pure bitcoin maximus will say

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you're crazy

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you should store 10 000 in your own

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hardware wallet okay well i'm 82 years

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old and i'm a wheelchair and

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my hands shake

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and i don't use computers how am i

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supposed to store this in a hardware

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wallet

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like i'm just buying it you know as an

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investment instead of buying gold

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yeah and i've got five seconds okay so

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you have five seconds and you talk to a

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guy bill that you've been doing business

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with from merrill lynch you know merrill

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lynch you know was a company of its own

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before it was bought by bank of america

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so i talked to my guy bill for i've been

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talking for 30 years

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i have five seconds

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and i want to buy 10 000 worth of

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bitcoin

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okay does that application matter

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sure it does

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what if i want to buy 10 million dollars

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worth of bitcoin

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does that matter sure it does

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what if i want to buy a hundred million

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worth of bitcoin it's the same dude

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with the same five seconds

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okay so

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do applications scale the bitcoin

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network yeah absolutely right you know

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would it be helpful to have more

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they're all handles they're they're a

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handle i'm grabbing on to bitcoin people

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handle it different ways do i

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if i have paypal it's installed on my

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machine and it works and i can click on

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a button in one second and buy bitcoin i

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prefer that

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to downloading a better application that

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takes 37 clicks and takes two days to

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get authenticated right right and so so

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at the end of the day

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these applications make a big difference

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and what what you have going on here is

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the creation of financial applications

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being wound into other exchanges and

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other platforms

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and then and the platforms are

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everything

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right

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and uh they take it like for example a

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corporation on the new york stock

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exchange takes you to the new york stock

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exchange platform a corporation on the

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nasdaq takes you to the nasdaq

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platform a corporation in japan you know

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takes you to the to the nikkei

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you know trading platforms so as bitcoin

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spreads on the balance sheets of

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different companies and different

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governments

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it spreads onto different platforms and

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it morphs

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into different derivatives and different

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flavors

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i think this is um

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sorry i just wanted to say that i think

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this is a very useful framing

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actually that if we i've said that money

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is kind of the base layer

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protocol for human interaction you know

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we've had gold

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functioning for a long time we could

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arguably say that a lot of these

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institutions

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technologies government currencies these

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are all applications on top of gold

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effectively

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and so now bitcoin's kind of like a new

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base layer it's a new base layer

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protocol

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replacing gold and enabling lots of

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other applications

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uh to flourish on top of it

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yeah i would agree i mean it's it's the

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it's the base property protocol or the

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base monetary protocol if what you want

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to do

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is to build something on a stable

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monetary base or a stable value base

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then you

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you need digital

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money

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digital property

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and that's a little bit different than

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digital currency right

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if you want a good digital currency

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you're best to make base it on a good

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digital money right currency is an

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application of money i think it's a

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great way currency is an application of

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money yes

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and if you if you understand it that way

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like money is is the base layer the the

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end-all be-all source of all value and

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virtue

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and everything else is an application on

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top of it

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i mean i don't

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i don't need a hundred percent of

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everything i am to be in my currency i

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only need one percent of everything i

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own to be in the currency i and then 99

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of what i am i need to be in the money

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yeah and in fact if if the if the money

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has integrity

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the currency doesn't need to

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right

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which is a pretty important point yeah

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if i had 99 of my wealth and the money

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and if the economy was growing or my

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assets were growing at four percent a

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year and if one percent was in the

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currency and the currency was devaluing

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10 a year it wouldn't matter yeah

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because on the margin right 10 basis

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points to you yeah i'm getting wealthier

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faster than i'm dissipating energy right

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yes yeah

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and it's it's just you know it's the

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same with a lot of things in life it's

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like the five dollar bill that falls out

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of my pocket on a saturday night

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[Music]

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isn't going to impoverish me right

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and on the margin you could say well

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you're kind of crazy to carry cash to a

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bar on a saturday night

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[Music]

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i know but i'll take the risk

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for the convenience yeah

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each of these things right is putting

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value at risk for example if you have a

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billion dollars in a company right you

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you know the you have the counterparty

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risk of the billion dollars in the

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company if the company fails you know

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the company's defrauded then a billion

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disappears but it doesn't imperil the

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entire blockchain

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and a publicly traded company that files

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quarterly results

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is a lot more trustworthy counterparty

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if like microstrategy is able to issue

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backed by bitcoin but we're a public

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company if you were a private company

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and you also wanted to issue debt backed

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by bitcoin it would either be harder

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impossible or you might pay a higher

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interest rate

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and if you were if you were an entity an

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individual that nobody trusted

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and you went you tried to sell the same

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bond right maybe you wouldn't get it

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because people are taking counterparty

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and they're trying to figure out whether

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they trust the counterparty

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[Music]

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but now here you see the beauty of

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bitcoin which is

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everybody can have an application so the

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question is

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which exchange is going to embrace

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bitcoin most effectively which mobile

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app is going to embrace bitcoin most

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effectively

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which commercial bank will embrace

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bitcoin most effectively which

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corporation will embrace bitcoin most

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effectively which government

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you know like any any governing

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municipality could you know could issue

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a billion dollars of municipal bonds a

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two percent interest they could buy a

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billion dollars a bitcoin that has a 100

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yield

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they could scrape the arbitrage and they

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could generate a billion dollars

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a year

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right

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in appreciation

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you play the game right in theory you

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could just issue a bunch of debt buy the

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bitcoin eliminate taxes forever

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you're like well that sounds too good to

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be true

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well everybody can't do it

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if you're last

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it doesn't work that well it works if

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for example

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mark zuckerberg was first to own

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facebook stock so he's rich forever yeah

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you can't get rich forever by buying

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facebook stock now what's the difference

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between you and mark zuckerberg the

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difference is

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he was first

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yeah and you were last

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and the same is true with jeff bezos

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so if you're the first city

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and you move you move early

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yeah then as everybody else enters then

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it's like

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if you came to america first and you got

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a thousand miles of farmland right or

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lord baltimore

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right

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you get a better deal than if you show

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up nine generations late

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with this

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you've got a market dynamic where the

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first government the first city the

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first state you know the first country

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they can all seize an advantage and

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they're competing

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you know like

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i talked to an energy company the other

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day i said well you know you're an

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energy company but you know what you

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could

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you can um you can either sell your

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energy to bitcoin miners you could pay

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two two cents a kilowatt hour

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and you could sell your excess energy

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small idea right

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or you can become a bitcoin miner and

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you could mine all your with all your

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excess energy and make 40 cents a

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kilowatt hour yep

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better idea

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you can go big and you can buy a bunch

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of bitcoin miners and or mine it and

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then you can go and issue billions of

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dollars of debt at two percent interest

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and buy the bitcoin

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and then make billions and billions of

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dollars right if you if you want to make

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five billion dollars and you're an

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energy company

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buy five billion worth of bitcoin issue

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a press release

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and then wait 90 days and you will

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probably make five to five to ten

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billion dollars right do you want to

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bend over and do that i mean now that's

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a bigger idea

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but the biggest

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idea is you do all those things you

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reposition your company and your your

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revenue multiple doubles or triples

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because now you're not a sleepy

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regulated entity you're a high-tech

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company

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you know um these big energy companies

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that you know you could have 20 30 40

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billion in revenue and trade at 40

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billion dollar market cap

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well it's likely that a two billion

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dollar bitcoin miner will trade with a

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40 billion dollar market cap

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so i think what if the bitcoin miners

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started buying the energy companies

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right it happened with uunet and

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worldcom you know

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back in the day where you actually saw

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the internet companies buying the baby

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bells

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yeah buying the telcos

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and um yeah and maybe they don't

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but um

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the bigger idea is the utility companies

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are in competition with the tech

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companies and they're in competition

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with the financiers and the hedge funds

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and the traders and the governments

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bitcoin doesn't care right

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and at every level there's this game

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theoretic incentive to move first

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benefit disproportionate to later

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adopters because to your point wealth is

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hierarchical right if you're there first

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and you're right

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you're going to benefit the most this is

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true in bitcoin as well if you're early

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to bitcoin you benefit

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more than later adopters and this is

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also i think the problem with fiat in a

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is that this central bank has kind of

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irrigated itself

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to always be first right it always gets

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to allocate itself new shares of

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currency

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um so it's it's it's kind of uh hijacked

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the hierarchy of wealth if you will in

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yeah and bitcoin

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the courageous

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the courageous with clarity a vision

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get to make themselves first

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it's it's private market and money yeah

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and with fiat

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it's uh it's those that are politically

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connected

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stay first right exactly

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right so it's public money

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and um

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so it's worthwhile to say you know all

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of those organizations are competing

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but we have um we have other types of

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derivatives that are very interesting or

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other application bitcoin like let's

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take insurance

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if you're an insurance company

0:16:39

then every insurance policy you issue or

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annuity that you sell

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based on bitcoin becomes a bitcoin

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derivative

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if i want to sell your life insurance

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policy that pays off

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a million dollars when you die

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and i'm going to charge you

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x premium right i got to charge you

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enough premiums and invest them to pay

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off the million dollars

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if i charge you those premiums and i

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invest them at two percent yield or

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three percent yield it's kind of hard to

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pay off the million i have to charge you

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a high premium

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whereas if i

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charge you premiums and invest them in

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bitcoin i can lower the premium or i can

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raise the payout

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or i can make the payout variable

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so now you've got an insurance company

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that's created a differentiated

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insurance product and you can either do

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it explicitly

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you can do it explicitly by by offering

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the policy backed by bitcoin

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or you can do it implicitly on your

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balance sheet

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you could just take 50 billion dollars

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of your balance sheet that are your

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collected annuities or premiums and you

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could buy bitcoin with it and use it

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collectively to back all your policies

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at the corporate

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and of course insurance companies have

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long long durations they have to look

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out 30 40 years

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they're in business forever

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they have huge balance sheets

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and their traditional funding vehicle is

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bonds and bonds are broken and so you

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need a you need a better

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type of

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annuity generating asset or a better

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appreciating asset and that's where

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bitcoin comes in

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and that's where investment firms come

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i mean

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my next application you get an

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investment firm and you sell mutual

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funds or you sell investment funds and

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people invest with you so

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if you create the fund based on bitcoin

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and then you sell that

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that becomes an instrument that's

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interesting to corporate investors

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family offices individual investors

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there's a lot of people that will want

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to buy that fund and there's a there's

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an entire industry that sells those

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funds

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there's also an interesting hybrid twist

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on that

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if you look at fidelity fidelity sells

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all sorts of fixed income funds

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municipal bond funds sovereign debt

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funds corporate bond funds junk bond

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funds

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they all have a low yield and they've

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got a negative real yield

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well you can juice them

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by blending them with bitcoin

0:19:24

[Music]

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so if i want to if i have an instrument

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or you know an asset that's been going

0:19:30

up 100 a year and i blend it in to an

0:19:33

asset that's been paying 3 interest

0:19:36

now i created a hybrid instrument that's

0:19:40

downside protection of bonds but upside

0:19:42

opportunity of something

0:19:44

right not as much

0:19:46

kind of a barbell

0:19:49

like sucralose is a powerful sweetener

0:19:52

you put it in anything

0:19:54

it's an artificial sweetener or it's a

0:19:56

booster it's a sugar if you will

0:19:59

so for an investment fund you can blend

0:20:03

various types of funds what if you're 50

0:20:05

bitcoin and then you

0:20:07

the other 50 is bitcoin derivatives call

0:20:10

and and future caller options maybe you

0:20:13

call or the bitcoin

0:20:15

or maybe

0:20:17

maybe you're 50 bitcoin and then you're

0:20:19

selling covered calls out of the money

0:20:21

to generate yield so you're creating a

0:20:23

bitcoin yield fine it doesn't have the

0:20:25

same upside as bitcoin but it's got a

0:20:26

guaranteed

0:20:28

you know at some point you know downside

0:20:30

protection upside yield you're blending

0:20:33

the thing and you're selling it to

0:20:34

someone that wants to buy that

0:20:37

are there people who want to buy it sure

0:20:40

like in a way microstrategy issues a

0:20:44

six and eight percent interest

0:20:46

and uh we buy bitcoin with it if you

0:20:49

swap the two

0:20:52

you've given up the upside of bitcoin in

0:20:54

return for getting the guarantee of six

0:20:56

and eight percent interest and why do

0:20:58

you do that well because the

0:20:59

government's paying you one percent

0:21:01

interest

0:21:03

like because the because the spread is

0:21:06

500 basis points over solver and debt

0:21:09

and because the spread over over

0:21:12

investment grade corporate debt is 400

0:21:15

basis points

0:21:17

so you want the yield

0:21:20

right who wants the yield well somebody

0:21:22

that actually sold 100 billion dollars

0:21:24

of a high yield fund to an endowment

0:21:26

that's who wants the healed right right

0:21:28

right so there are structures in the

0:21:31

financial universe they exist

0:21:34

they don't you don't just snap your

0:21:35

fingers and change those structures in a

0:21:37

day or a week or a month or a year

0:21:41

in some cases those structures have

0:21:43

formed over 30 years

0:21:45

40 years

0:21:46

10 years 10 years is a short period of

0:21:49

time in the finance world

0:21:52

what you have here is investment firms

0:21:56

that are able to create all their own

0:21:58

financial products

0:22:01

with with any mixture and blend of risk

0:22:03

and volatility

0:22:05

and they can hybridize them with

0:22:07

existing conventional assets

0:22:10

like what if you what if you had a fun

0:22:12

which was half gold half bitcoin right

0:22:14

you know for people that like gold but

0:22:16

they can't bear to give up

0:22:19

yeah or they like bitcoin but they can't

0:22:20

bear to give up their gold right

0:22:24

you know it's like an alloy right an

0:22:26

alloy right yeah yeah the i was just

0:22:29

what's coming to mind here is that you

0:22:30

could almost put in your parameters and

0:22:32

just back into the right blend

0:22:35

customized for you right using bitcoin

0:22:37

to kind of augment your risk profile and

0:22:39

volatility and such

0:22:42

yeah and there's

0:22:44

there's a lot of people

0:22:47

that would give up the ability to get a

0:22:49

100 return in a year

0:22:51

in return for

0:22:53

a downside protection

0:22:57

right

0:22:58

you know if you went to every

0:22:59

conventional investor and said

0:23:02

are you willing to give up

0:23:04

more than 30

0:23:05

upside a year in return for all these

0:23:07

downside protections

0:23:10

yeah there is a lot

0:23:11

and they and uh big banks sell these all

0:23:14

the time they're very lucrative products

0:23:17

yeah like i charge you a two percent fee

0:23:19

to give you a structured product

0:23:22

it gives you some mixture of downside

0:23:24

protection and upside that we've

0:23:26

tailored

0:23:28

you know to your needs

0:23:29

so those are just other applications

0:23:32

moving on let's talk about trust and

0:23:34

endowments you've got a family trust is

0:23:36

supposed to last a hundred years

0:23:39

fund it with bitcoin

0:23:41

the rockefeller foundation right if you

0:23:43

have um

0:23:45

any kind of endowment every university

0:23:47

every non-profit has an endowment they

0:23:50

all have the same funding problem

0:23:53

which is

0:23:54

where you put your money

0:23:57

where last 100 years

0:23:59

and here

0:24:00

this is an interesting

0:24:03

it's a digital transformation of money

0:24:05

managers

0:24:07

i can either put a hundred million

0:24:09

dollars into an endowment and have like

0:24:11

ten money managers and they charge me

0:24:13

two percent fee or one percent fee a

0:24:15

year to manage the money

0:24:17

or i can just put the money into bitcoin

0:24:19

and i've de-materialized the money

0:24:21

managers

0:24:23

we talked about the complete digital

0:24:24

transformation or de-materialize it

0:24:27

dematerializing the fiat banking system

0:24:29

in our early sessions

0:24:32

in this particular case you're just

0:24:34

dematerializing money managers

0:24:38

there's an application the application

0:24:40

would be

0:24:41

i need a certain type of reporting and

0:24:43

compliance

0:24:46

like what what if you did run a

0:24:47

non-profit foundation and you wanted to

0:24:51

be a custodian of 12 million dollars

0:24:55

you want to flip into bitcoin and now

0:24:57

you now you want to spend one hour a

0:25:00

monitoring your position

0:25:02

filing the appropriate forms with the

0:25:06

and then you need to make disbursements

0:25:08

so you're an endowment what you'd

0:25:10

probably want is a credit line so you

0:25:11

can borrow some money to pay your

0:25:15

disbursements your fees on an ongoing

0:25:17

basis

0:25:19

and then you want the principal to be

0:25:20

protected

0:25:21

normally you have that you would have to

0:25:23

reinvest it well what what's the closest

0:25:25

thing to bitcoin

0:25:27

probably the vanguard 500

0:25:30

or the like

0:25:31

and if you look at vanguard you look at

0:25:33

fidelity and look what they do one big

0:25:35

business for them is this like endowment

0:25:37

management or

0:25:38

you know donor assisted funds and they

0:25:41

just run these funds where you put your

0:25:42

money into this stuff and you put it on

0:25:44

autopilot and people look at it once

0:25:47

every 90 days

0:25:49

and that's that's a big business

0:25:52

right now

0:25:53

a hundred trillion dollars of it is

0:25:55

broken

0:25:56

because a hundred trillion dollars of it

0:25:58

is bonds

0:26:00

and so you've got massive amounts of

0:26:02

fixed income bonds and other assets that

0:26:05

are broken

0:26:07

and those are traditionally the things

0:26:08

that are easy to manage and if you can't

0:26:11

do if you can't do 100 trillion of bonds

0:26:13

you have to go into equity but there's

0:26:14

not enough equity

0:26:16

right so

0:26:17

if the equity markets in the us were 35

0:26:20

trillion and they get 100 trillion in

0:26:21

bonds that are broken

0:26:23

you can't just jam

0:26:25

50 trillion dollars into equity right

0:26:27

well you can

0:26:29

so what are the consequences right you

0:26:31

overvalue the equity right right which

0:26:33

is happening

0:26:34

which i mean i can't imagine any of

0:26:36

those examples right i mean

0:26:38

yeah lots of examples we overvalue the

0:26:40

equity as we jam the money into it

0:26:43

and people are waking up and they're

0:26:45

looking for that alternate asset class

0:26:49

and the beauty of bitcoin is bitcoin can

0:26:50

never get overvalued because bitcoin's

0:26:52

bank is cyberspace

0:26:54

if you jam 50 trillion into it

0:26:57

the price would go up by 50 trillion

0:27:00

and it would be worth 50 trillion more

0:27:03

and and this is the crazy thing about

0:27:05

bitcoin too i guess money more generally

0:27:07

is that it's a veblen good right so

0:27:09

actually the more expensive bitcoin gets

0:27:12

the more de-risked it is

0:27:15

as money

0:27:16

so therefore it's almost like a

0:27:18

self-catalyzing feedback loop in a way

0:27:20

the more money you jam into it the more

0:27:22

likely it is to eat all the other money

0:27:23

in the world

0:27:25

the more uh value you would expect to be

0:27:28

placed on it

0:27:33

yeah i mean it's the ideal solution to

0:27:33

the problem

0:27:36

now i talked about a bunch of financial

0:27:37

applications and and and i'm always

0:27:40

thinking about corporations and

0:27:41

governments as

0:27:43

as platforms but

0:27:45

we should also talk about hardware

0:27:47

applications so you know there's a lot

0:27:49

of hardware applications of bitcoin

0:27:51

there's the miners there's the nodes

0:27:53

there's the wallet

0:27:55

any device that exists

0:27:57

could have bitcoins protocol built into

0:28:00

and the question is do you want to do

0:28:03

you want to build the wallet protocols

0:28:05

you can build lightning and you can

0:28:07

build bitcoin wallet right into any

0:28:10

mobile device you could build it into

0:28:11

jewelry right you could build

0:28:13

multi-signature protocols into your

0:28:15

watches your jewelry

0:28:18

your phones your desks

0:28:21

your appliances

0:28:24

and that's a differentiating business

0:28:30

it's just it's not on you know people

0:28:30

build bluetooth into stuff

0:28:32

right

0:28:34

this is more important than bluetooth

0:28:37

a bit more important than bluetooth

0:28:39

right you can you can build

0:28:41

you can also build nodes and node

0:28:43

capabilities right into devices

0:28:46

and you can build mining into devices

0:28:49

right you could

0:28:50

you could uh integrate

0:28:53

these capabilities right into firmware

0:28:55

into hardware and there and why would

0:28:57

you do it

0:28:58

because it's differentiating

0:29:00

if apple creates if they build bitcoin

0:29:03

support into face id or touch id

0:29:07

and the icloud

0:29:10

if the icloud was like a multi-signature

0:29:12

multi-factor

0:29:14

you know bitcoin cloud

0:29:17

then you've got

0:29:18

a trillion dollars worth of bitcoin that

0:29:21

can flow into the icloud

0:29:22

[Music]

0:29:24

that differentiates icloud yeah you can

0:29:26

do it with google you could google cloud

0:29:29

you could do it in microsoft

0:29:31

right you could do it in facebook

0:29:35

and so

0:29:37

apple's interesting because it crosses

0:29:38

hardware and software and network areas

0:29:42

but you know if you go into the software

0:29:44

you've got windows and ios and android

0:29:47

and these are all operating systems

0:29:50

you know and to a certain extent things

0:29:52

like chrome are like their own little

0:29:53

mini operating system

0:29:59

you can build bitcoin right into those

0:29:59

things i mean

0:30:01

google built password managers into

0:30:03

chrome yeah

0:30:05

right

0:30:06

uh and uh if the operating system has

0:30:09

native support for the monetary protocol

0:30:17

then either that's a reason to use the

0:30:17

operating system

0:30:19

or um you can pass on those primitives

0:30:23

and that functionality to the

0:30:24

applications running on the operating

0:30:26

system yeah

0:30:27

like for example apple

0:30:30

lets banking applications use face id

0:30:33

for authentication mm-hmm right

0:30:37

and that makes the banking applications

0:30:39

better and so

0:30:41

so if you want to compete in hardware

0:30:43

and devices or in software os's

0:30:47

then putting the monetary protocol into

0:30:49

it is just like building tcpip

0:30:53

i mean i'm old enough to remember when

0:30:54

tcpip wasn't built into every computer

0:30:57

right

0:30:58

hey everybody

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i've seen recently too that

0:32:08

[Music]

0:32:10

the lighting network can actually

0:32:11

augment authentication or you can you

0:32:13

can authenticate through the lightning

0:32:15

node as well so it can be an alternative

0:32:17

to password management at some point

0:32:21

yeah i mean there's there's

0:32:22

really fascinating decentralized

0:32:24

applications like decentralized

0:32:28

is probably like outside the scope of

0:32:30

our conversation here it's like an

0:32:31

entirely other world yes yeah

0:32:38

but with hardware and software that

0:32:40

leads you to cloud right because cloud's

0:32:42

another application aws azure and google

0:32:45

cloud and the like are all general

0:32:48

purpose containerized corporate

0:32:49

platforms

0:32:51

for spinning up massive applications

0:32:54

and so to the extent that they have

0:32:56

support for bitcoin or lightning and

0:32:59

certain other monetary protocols

0:33:01

then it makes it easier for their

0:33:03

clients

0:33:04

like zoom

0:33:06

you know zooms assume went from nothing

0:33:08

to 400 million users during covid

0:33:11

because they were sitting

0:33:13

on top of cloud platforms from you know

0:33:16

an azure or an aws and if they weren't

0:33:18

they couldn't have scaled

0:33:20

so when they're scaling they need to be

0:33:22

able to access these underlying services

0:33:26

monetary services are are destined to be

0:33:29

built into every application

0:33:32

um and they would be differentiator

0:33:36

now now if we go to another really

0:33:37

interesting application take social

0:33:39

networks

0:33:40

um twitter facebook instagram tick talk

0:33:45

well one of the killer applications for

0:33:47

social networks

0:33:49

is is verification and credit worthiness

0:33:53

or another way to say it is to put skin

0:33:56

in the game

0:33:57

right now there's no cost for malicious

0:33:59

behavior

0:34:00

so if i open up my instagram direct

0:34:03

messages 99 of them are bots they're not

0:34:06

really people

0:34:08

and when i look at my twitter comments a

0:34:11

lot of times 90 of them will be bots or

0:34:15

malicious actors

0:34:17

so you've got a bot war people have

0:34:19

computers spinning up fake twitter

0:34:22

accounts and then twitter has computers

0:34:24

taking them down as fast as they can

0:34:27

and in the first hour after i post i

0:34:29

just see a bunch of garbage and then

0:34:31

maybe after a day they've cleaned it up

0:34:33

and there's like real comments

0:34:36

but what that means is there's a two

0:34:38

three four five hour delay between when

0:34:40

i do something and when i don't have

0:34:42

garbage in the feed

0:34:44

how do you solve it

0:34:46

the logical way to solve it is

0:34:49

i put a hundred thousand satoshi's

0:34:52

on a lightning wallet

0:34:53

and then i make a security deposit

0:34:56

to twitter

0:34:58

or security deposit to

0:35:00

instagram or security deposit to youtube

0:35:05

and if you deposit that's like 40 bucks

0:35:08

right pick a number it doesn't matter

0:35:09

what the number is some something less

0:35:11

than a lot but more than nothing

0:35:14

i deposit a hundred thousand satoshi's

0:35:17

and that gives me

0:35:18

and then people on twitter can say i

0:35:22

only want people

0:35:24

with an orange check

0:35:26

that are credit worthy

0:35:29

or lightning certified

0:35:31

to be able to post comments on my tweets

0:35:34

and i only want to receive uh direct

0:35:37

messages from people that are lightning

0:35:39

certified

0:35:40

or verified or i

0:35:42

follow one of those three

0:35:46

and if you're not an orange check we'll

0:35:48

call it

0:35:50

then you can't message me and you can't

0:35:51

comment

0:35:53

so what happens

0:35:56

first of all if i just if i just turned

0:35:59

my entire feed to only orange check and

0:36:01

blue check all the bots disappear

0:36:04

everything disappears right you know um

0:36:07

cz does this on binance a different way

0:36:09

he basically blocks anybody but people

0:36:11

that he follows from being able to post

0:36:13

on his twitter comments

0:36:15

but the problem with that is that if you

0:36:17

only follow a thousand people

0:36:19

you know you're you're living in this

0:36:21

hermetically sealed world of only a

0:36:23

thousand people can comment right what

0:36:25

you want

0:36:26

is you want a hundred million people to

0:36:28

be able to comment but you want them

0:36:31

to comment with

0:36:33

safe and sub and civility or at least

0:36:36

you want them to be human beings

0:36:39

so if a hundred million people post

0:36:41

thirty dollars

0:36:44

then you've got three billion dollars

0:36:45

worth of bitcoin posted as a security

0:36:48

deposit on the twitter network

0:36:51

[Music]

0:36:53

now everybody that comments is a real

0:36:55

person well let's say 98 of them are

0:36:59

and if someone wants to spin up uh 29

0:37:01

michael seller bots

0:37:03

well they can do that but they're not

0:37:05

orange checked and so i'll never see

0:37:07

them and no one will ever see them

0:37:10

right or if they want to get the orange

0:37:12

check then they have to post

0:37:14

100 000 satoshi's 29 times

0:37:18

and if it turns out that they were

0:37:19

imitating somebody

0:37:22

maybe they get a fine of a thousand

0:37:23

satoshis or maybe they just lose their

0:37:25

orange check and they forfeit the

0:37:27

security deposit

0:37:29

it's like if you trash somebody's house

0:37:30

when you're renting it

0:37:32

whenever you

0:37:33

whenever you rent a house or whenever

0:37:35

you cross public property you either

0:37:38

have to have uh

0:37:41

you have to have insurance like uh like

0:37:43

car insurance

0:37:45

or you have to be bonded if you're a

0:37:47

worker or you have to post a security

0:37:49

deposit

0:37:50

and if you have that concept that you

0:37:53

have to be bonded or have to be credit

0:37:55

worthy

0:37:57

then what that means is that every time

0:37:59

a bot attacks you it costs them thirty

0:38:01

dollars

0:38:02

and you're monetizing maliciousness

0:38:05

if someone's stupid enough to be

0:38:07

malicious

0:38:09

right it's it's not that the platforms

0:38:10

don't have rules they do have rules like

0:38:13

they they take people down and kick them

0:38:15

off and put them in the penalty box all

0:38:17

the time but the rules have no

0:38:19

consequences

0:38:20

if you have a computer that generates 87

0:38:23

million fake michael sailor accounts

0:38:25

every day

0:38:26

what the heck do you care about the

0:38:28

rules the rules don't hurt robots

0:38:30

there has to be a price or a cost to

0:38:33

maliciousness

0:38:35

and so

0:38:37

what you have here is

0:38:40

you have a bitcoin lightning network

0:38:43

that allows a billion people to post

0:38:46

twenty dollars each

0:38:49

and then you could have micro payments

0:38:52

and um

0:38:54

when that happens

0:38:56

if i go on amazon i look at the um

0:38:59

at the

0:39:00

opinion surveys i don't have to worry

0:39:02

that someone hire someone created fake

0:39:05

bots to fill in the survey

0:39:08

because if you get caught faking it you

0:39:10

get a fine

0:39:12

and uh if i go on youtube and someone's

0:39:14

running a scam video

0:39:16

and they have to have a the right green

0:39:18

check and then when they get

0:39:21

we report scam videos every every two

0:39:24

hours robert

0:39:25

every two hours someone spends up a scam

0:39:27

video on youtube which fakes something

0:39:31

and we report them as fast as they spin

0:39:34

but there's no cost right

0:39:36

or there's minimal cost the denial of

0:39:38

service accounts

0:39:40

denial of service attacks there's no

0:39:42

cost to spamming there's no cost to

0:39:45

hostility online

0:39:47

there's no cost to in to being an

0:39:49

imposter there's there's no cost to

0:39:52

spending up 97 000 fake accounts that

0:39:55

actually try to create the appearance of

0:39:57

a panic when it doesn't exist right

0:39:59

cyber warfare

0:40:03

what's the solution the solution is

0:40:05

in the real world you have skin in the

0:40:07

game if you walk up to to women on the

0:40:10

street and you and you and you insult

0:40:13

them you take the risk that the person

0:40:15

next to them or they punch you in the

0:40:18

right

0:40:20

right and if you drive your car and you

0:40:21

get in a wreck you get fined and then

0:40:24

you've got an insurance claim and

0:40:25

there's consequence and if you go rent

0:40:27

someone's house for the summer and you

0:40:29

trash the house

0:40:31

and you have a security deposit they

0:40:33

take it or if you if you rent an

0:40:34

apartment the security deposit you trash

0:40:36

it they take it so there's skin in the

0:40:38

game and that causes people to act with

0:40:40

some degree of civility

0:40:41

there's no civility in cyberspace

0:40:44

because there's no skin in the game why

0:40:47

well because if you use credit cards

0:40:49

it's two and a half percent fee it takes

0:40:51

two days to clear and two billion people

0:40:53

don't have credit cards

0:40:55

among other things

0:40:57

right you do it to the app store well i

0:41:00

mean you could try to do the app store

0:41:01

as a 30 percent cut

0:41:04

how do you move a thousand satoshis for

0:41:06

one satoshi in a split second right

0:41:09

right so having a value network

0:41:12

becomes a credit network and so for all

0:41:15

these social networks you can actually

0:41:17

inject the quality of credit worthiness

0:41:21

and you could do it

0:41:22

you could do a different scales for

0:41:24

example

0:41:25

you could post a hundred thousand

0:41:26

satoshi's to get a small check you could

0:41:29

post uh a bitcoin to get a green check

0:41:32

you could post 10 bitcoin to get a

0:41:35

purple check

0:41:36

and if i'm gonna go ahead and scalp

0:41:38

tickets

0:41:40

or i'm going to book a flight from

0:41:41

someone online i want them to have a

0:41:43

purple check because i want recourse

0:41:45

against them if they lied to me or

0:41:47

defrauded me

0:41:49

yeah this makes

0:41:51

a ton of sense because the original

0:41:54

purpose of proof-of-work itself was a

0:41:56

counter-measure to spam

0:41:57

so it only makes sense

0:41:59

yeah it would be applied at other levels

0:42:01

that was adam back's idea proof of work

0:42:04

to fight spam

0:42:06

we're living in a world 30 years later

0:42:11

we still have spam

0:42:14

like we're we're running two levels of

0:42:15

spam filters at my company

0:42:18

90 of my email is spam

0:42:21

i'm getting spammed on linkedin i'm

0:42:23

getting spammed on facebook i'm getting

0:42:25

spammed on instagram i'm getting spammed

0:42:27

on twitter

0:42:28

all of the news feeds are getting

0:42:30

spammed and it's worse than spam there

0:42:32

are hostile malicious actors that are

0:42:34

fake bots

0:42:36

that are that are waging a psychological

0:42:39

psyops warfare to destroy people and

0:42:42

ideas and demoralize them

0:42:45

and they do it for economic reasons they

0:42:47

do it for political reasons etc and

0:42:50

there is no way to stop that in the

0:42:52

absence of

0:42:54

some kind of value network

0:42:57

so the killer application for bitcoin

0:43:00

with social networks is is credit

0:43:03

worthiness leading to cyber security

0:43:06

safety

0:43:07

and civility in cyberspace

0:43:10

now if you think about where you can

0:43:11

apply this idea

0:43:13

of just a security deposit

0:43:16

which is the same as a cyber bond if you

0:43:19

or a cyber passport but the beauty by

0:43:22

was you don't have to disclose your

0:43:23

identity

0:43:25

you could spin it up and spin it down

0:43:26

and it's it's it's lightning fast and

0:43:29

dirt cheap so it's open to everybody

0:43:32

but once you spin up this idea it works

0:43:35

across every social network

0:43:37

it cleans up

0:43:39

all of the

0:43:40

the feeds the news feeds

0:43:43

et cetera it also works for all the

0:43:45

communication networks

0:43:47

so you've got what's up and signal and

0:43:49

imessage and zoom and you've got gmail

0:43:53

you know every other mail office 365

0:43:57

all of these things have spam imposter

0:44:01

malicious accounts

0:44:03

that the phishing attacks are ridiculous

0:44:05

right

0:44:06

right so if you're a corporation and you

0:44:08

want to send something you know maybe

0:44:10

you ought to post

0:44:12

if someone sent me a mail message

0:44:15

and i knew they'd posted a thousand

0:44:17

bitcoin security deposit

0:44:20

and if they had it all at risk and if

0:44:22

they could lose it instantly on the

0:44:24

platform i would i would probably trust

0:44:27

them more

0:44:30

like like it's all it's all about cyber

0:44:32

reputation if you really want me to do

0:44:34

something risky

0:44:36

what do you have at risk what's your

0:44:38

value at risk

0:44:39

[Music]

0:44:40

now what's interesting about this is is

0:44:42

you're picking up all these security

0:44:43

deposits the platforms could use the

0:44:46

money to float to do something if they

0:44:48

wanted yeah yeah

0:44:50

and uh it's generally good for bitcoin

0:44:52

because it locks up the bitcoin on the

0:44:54

platforms

0:44:57

and so and the sky's the limit once

0:44:58

you've done that

0:45:00

you're not that far from from say

0:45:03

implementing fees you could say look you

0:45:05

want to send me a message pay me a

0:45:06

thousand sets

0:45:12

you know you can have micro payments you

0:45:12

can have streaming payments

0:45:14

you can tie services to credit

0:45:16

worthiness

0:45:18

look if you're if you go to a bank and

0:45:20

you put

0:45:22

a bunch of money in the bank they'll

0:45:23

give you a higher level of service right

0:45:25

than if you put a small amount of money

0:45:26

in the bank

0:45:27

so if you want to distinguish services

0:45:30

whatever they might be it might be more

0:45:31

bandwidth on spaces or more bandwidth or

0:45:34

something yeah or it might be

0:45:36

it might be some other functionality

0:45:40

everybody eventually can be they can

0:45:42

become a bank

0:45:44

and uh you know that takes us like

0:45:45

entertainment news

0:45:47

i mean that they have um

0:45:49

similar opportunities they they either

0:45:53

they sell access via these micro

0:45:56

payments

0:45:59

they curate the response they they

0:46:03

create safer forms and safer spaces

0:46:06

by requiring that you be credit worthy

0:46:09

in order to engage or they certify

0:46:12

their news

0:46:14

by posting some credit worthiness

0:46:17

there's a lot of news circulating around

0:46:19

so if you're trying to separate fake

0:46:20

news from real news

0:46:23

then you could use this to certify

0:46:26

um it's interesting you've also got

0:46:27

service providers like uber and open

0:46:30

table and airbnb

0:46:32

and uh and for them the idea of

0:46:35

creditworthiness also matters it matters

0:46:38

when you're pairing

0:46:39

restaurants with customers like like can

0:46:42

i trust the customer to show up to the

0:46:44

restaurant will they forfeit their

0:46:46

deposit can i trust the driver can i

0:46:48

trust the passenger can i trust the

0:46:50

person that's going to come into my

0:46:52

airbnb

0:46:53

they try to do that with reputation but

0:46:56

there is no more important metric i

0:46:59

think than the creditworthiness if if

0:47:01

someone says you know i'll post 10

0:47:03

million dollars in order to drive your

0:47:05

car for the weekend

0:47:07

yes it's highly unlikely that they're

0:47:09

going to trash your car

0:47:12

yeah right and and one way or the other

0:47:14

it's just an example of insurance policy

0:47:16

or a bond

0:47:18

i mean

0:47:18

if you if you have the uh the recourse

0:47:22

you know to the bond in cyber space then

0:47:26

it creates

0:47:28

it creates accelerated commerce and that

0:47:30

means that

0:47:31

that millions of people can trade with

0:47:33

millions of people

0:47:35

without the impedance of quote unquote

0:47:37

getting to know each other yes yes

0:47:40

yeah accelerated

0:47:42

commerce and higher quality

0:47:45

right so again the skin and the game

0:47:47

term keep going around but it's this

0:47:49

balancing of incentives and

0:47:50

disincentives that uh facilitates

0:47:53

quality discourse among people there's

0:47:56

not a day that goes by robert you know

0:47:58

that you don't hear about someone

0:47:59

getting hit with a denial of service

0:48:01

attack

0:48:02

if you have an open website you know

0:48:05

there are there are hostile actors in

0:48:07

eastern europe and they'll unleash an

0:48:09

army of machines or an array of machines

0:48:12

and they'll just start hammering your

0:48:13

website to take it down

0:48:15

and uh it happens all the time

0:48:19

it's it's like spamming except it's

0:48:20

worse right and

0:48:22

and that's because there's no cost for

0:48:24

denial of service yeah but um you know

0:48:27

half a a lot of the you know the proof

0:48:29

of work you know and a lot of the

0:48:30

bitcoin protocol was to protect

0:48:33

the underlying

0:48:34

the underlying bitcoin mining network

0:48:36

from denial of service attacks

0:48:38

right

0:48:40

but this actually solves the problem

0:48:44

if you if you have

0:48:45

a web service and you require someone

0:48:48

have an orange check

0:48:50

you could actually filter on the orange

0:48:53

check and and you could then prevent the

0:48:55

denial of service attack

0:48:57

or you could protect yourself from it

0:49:00

again like having you know like having a

0:49:02

credit rating

0:49:04

in cyberspace

0:49:06

and since it's open to everybody in the

0:49:08

world

0:49:09

anybody can have one

0:49:11

and uh and

0:49:13

it causes 98

0:49:15

of the malicious behavior to be

0:49:16

non-economic anymore doesn't make any

0:49:19

sense

0:49:23

i i didn't spend much time on retail but

0:49:25

clearly retail is another

0:49:27

example of

0:49:29

of a layer three application of bitcoin

0:49:32

and it's either

0:49:33

again it's either buying selling trading

0:49:35

security deposits or credit checks or

0:49:38

the like

0:49:39

as you're doing business if i'm selling

0:49:42

something to someone and i trust them

0:49:44

and i trust their credit rating then

0:49:47

maybe

0:49:48

you can do business with with

0:49:51

retailers friction free that don't know

0:49:53

you and you don't know them

0:49:56

right and it it definitely is the case

0:49:59

that if i'm if i'm amazon or

0:50:01

or i'm i'm setting up

0:50:03

a retail operation people are coming at

0:50:07

that i don't know very well

0:50:09

and so what i want to do is find a way

0:50:12

to accelerate

0:50:13

the transactional speed and i do that

0:50:16

with some type of

0:50:18

lightning security deposit and or

0:50:21

lightning payment

0:50:26

we didn't really touch on the elephant

0:50:26

in the room here which is

0:50:28

the visa master code network costs two

0:50:30

and a half percent

0:50:36

right and so just just the the general

0:50:36

payments network in general and

0:50:38

remittance network yeah is another

0:50:40

killer application just

0:50:43

just money movement around the planet

0:50:45

because the existing systems

0:50:48

either bank wires

0:50:51

the existing way to move large sums of

0:50:52

money as bank wires

0:50:54

and small sums of money is credit cards

0:50:57

and you have knockout periods they don't

0:50:59

move on the weekends they don't move

0:51:01

from certain jurisdictions to others you

0:51:04

can't program them they're not automated

0:51:07

so you've got a heterogeneous expensive

0:51:09

manual patchwork cloth quilt

0:51:13

of payment options

0:51:15

and you can't scale that

0:51:21

and so the you know lightning

0:51:21

lightning helps you scale it at the

0:51:23

transaction level and then bitcoin is

0:51:25

the core settlement network so

0:51:28

if you want to plug 100 000

0:51:31

businesses into each other and move

0:51:33

blocks of money a million to 100 million

0:51:36

or a billion at a time you do it on the

0:51:38

bitcoin network

0:51:40

and then when you want to plug the

0:51:41

millions and tens and hundreds of

0:51:43

millions of

0:51:44

people into each other you got to do it

0:51:46

on these other platforms but it won't be

0:51:49

one i mean lightning i think will be

0:51:50

very successful

0:51:53

but i think that um you know square and

0:51:55

paypal and apple pay and google and

0:51:57

facebook they will all build their own

0:51:59

proprietary networks

0:52:02

and they will have additional

0:52:03

functionality built into it or

0:52:05

compliance built into it or performance

0:52:07

built into it

0:52:09

or just convenience

0:52:12

right it's like it's it's so subtle

0:52:16

like if i bought an insurance policy a

0:52:18

decade ago

0:52:19

and if the insurance company just buys

0:52:21

bitcoin for their balance sheet

0:52:24

i now own a bitcoin derivative insurance

0:52:26

policy and i did nothing

0:52:29

right so there are certain subtleties

0:52:31

where the corporation or the actor

0:52:35

can do something that provides a benefit

0:52:38

to millions of people without them doing

0:52:41

anything and that's how you really scale

0:52:44

in a big way like if you're a country

0:52:46

and all of a sudden you start buying

0:52:48

bitcoin

0:52:49

your currency in circulation with 11

0:52:51

million people using it has become a

0:52:53

bitcoin derivative and it just happened

0:52:56

because someone in the back office

0:52:57

started buying bitcoin right yeah

0:53:00

so the beauty of all this is

0:53:03

there's a lot of ways to scale bitcoin

0:53:06

and there's a lot of applications

0:53:08

there's hundreds of thousands of

0:53:10

applications millions of applications

0:53:13

there'll be lots of platforms lots of

0:53:15

tools

0:53:16

they'll be you know

0:53:18

if twitter creates the orange check and

0:53:20

they plug it in the lightning

0:53:22

network then who's to say that twitter

0:53:24

couldn't open up the api

0:53:27

and let

0:53:28

google and facebook and apple and medium

0:53:31

and reddit

0:53:33

and discourse discord and inherit

0:53:36

the orange check right right now twitter

0:53:39

becomes a platform for cyber security

0:53:42

and you carry your twitter reputation or

0:53:45

credit rating

0:53:46

to all these other places and that's

0:53:48

what google tries with their google

0:53:50

login and apple has login with apple

0:53:53

right

0:53:54

they're carrying authentication around

0:53:56

the network

0:53:58

but there's uh

0:54:00

there's no end

0:54:02

to the type of opportunities that there

0:54:04

are there and you're only limited by

0:54:06

human creativity

0:54:09

hey everybody so that was episode 17

0:54:13

of the sailor series

0:54:15

and in this episode we got into

0:54:18

uh the how of bitcoin how it changes uh

0:54:21

a lot of

0:54:22

things and so

0:54:25

let's start out i think

0:54:28

this is a point we've reiterated a lot

0:54:30

but i think it's worth

0:54:32

touching on again

0:54:34

as it really points to the inevitability

0:54:37

of bitcoin

0:54:39

and that's the simple fact that

0:54:41

every

0:54:42

individual and organization

0:54:45

is essentially

0:54:47

forced to buy bitcoin

0:54:50

out of self-interest at some point

0:54:53

and so the reasoning behind this

0:54:56

one useful way to think about it in my

0:54:57

opinion is that money is the prime mover

0:55:00

of human action so

0:55:03

you know there's this old saying that

0:55:05

show me the incentives and i'll show you

0:55:06

the outcome

0:55:08

and as i've said a few times i actually

0:55:11

view incentives as

0:55:13

the soil from which human action springs

0:55:16

so people tend

0:55:17

not always clearly it's not perfect but

0:55:19

on average

0:55:21

people tend to follow the

0:55:23

pathways of their incentives

0:55:28

the world of economics there's no more

0:55:30

powerful material incentive than money

0:55:32

itself which explains a lot of what we

0:55:34

talk about on the show

0:55:36

and in that way you can kind of consider

0:55:37

it um you know the base layer

0:55:40

protocol of human action

0:55:43

or perhaps even the most powerful

0:55:45

incentive in the world you know it's

0:55:48

as an emblem for freedom for power for

0:55:51

human time

0:55:53

uh this instrument that we call money is

0:55:55

is clearly something that's very

0:55:57

alluring to a lot of people

0:56:00

and so

0:56:01

when you come to look at money that way

0:56:03

when it it's like the base layer

0:56:05

operating system to use a software

0:56:07

analogy

0:56:08

come to see social institutions

0:56:11

organizations all the things we build

0:56:13

uh as really just applications of money

0:56:15

ultimately

0:56:17

um and this is very clear with the

0:56:18

business right that the business is

0:56:20

based on its p l

0:56:22

if it's not performing in a true

0:56:24

capitalist society uh it would liquidate

0:56:26

it would it would go bankrupt in the

0:56:28

capital that constitute constituted that

0:56:31

business

0:56:32

would be put back into the marketplace

0:56:34

and put to higher and better use

0:56:37

based on the wishes of consumers

0:56:42

you know you could say the same of any

0:56:44

other social institution as well

0:56:46

including the state right the state is a

0:56:47

business as well it has a bottom line it

0:56:50

has revenues

0:56:51

uh its purpose is to grow to increase

0:56:54

its revenues

0:56:55

uh and to increase its power frankly and

0:56:59

it has wielded its monopoly position on

0:57:03

violence and coercion historically

0:57:06

always really to manipulate money and to

0:57:08

monopolize money because again money is

0:57:11

is such a powerful tool

0:57:14

say that makes this great point that

0:57:16

if you can get

0:57:19

high integrity

0:57:21

at the monetary layer

0:57:23

then you don't need it at the currency

0:57:25

layer so again to back up a little bit

0:57:28

currency too just like a business just

0:57:30

like a social social institution

0:57:32

currency right this paper note we have

0:57:35

that was redeemable for money

0:57:37

historically like gold

0:57:40

that too is an application of money so

0:57:42

sailors making the point that if you

0:57:43

have high integrity

0:57:45

in the money then you don't actually

0:57:47

need it at the currency layer

0:57:49

so the way i unpack this is to say that

0:57:52

when money is well integrated to its

0:57:55

referent

0:57:57

which again if money currency used to be

0:57:59

redeemable for gold gold was just an

0:58:01

emblem of all these things we just named

0:58:03

right

0:58:04

time energy work power whatever you want

0:58:07

to call it money is kind of an amalgam

0:58:10

of all of these

0:58:11

and when money is integral to that

0:58:13

referent

0:58:15

and in a highly portable form because

0:58:17

money clearly it's it's a tool useful

0:58:20

for expressing value across time and

0:58:22

space so it needs this quality of

0:58:24

portability

0:58:26

then all of a sudden you don't need

0:58:27

promises to money you don't need a

0:58:30

currency actually it becomes unnecessary

0:58:32

the application this application of

0:58:35

money we call currency becomes

0:58:36

unnecessary when the money is integrated

0:58:39

to its referent and it's highly portable

0:58:42

and as you might have guessed that's

0:58:44

exactly what bitcoin is right bitcoin is

0:58:47

perfectly portable money rooted in work

0:58:51

which

0:58:54

superior base layer protocol

0:58:57

to human action you know it's superior

0:58:59

to gold

0:59:00

and that's why it's so

0:59:03

significantly disruptive across all of

0:59:05

these dimensions of human action

0:59:08

and so we could to zero in on

0:59:10

the nation state a bit the size of the

0:59:13

nation state today i would argue

0:59:16

is actually a result of exploiting that

0:59:19

attack vector

0:59:21

on these promissory notes to money we

0:59:23

call currency

0:59:25

right we gold lacked portability gold

0:59:28

was not useful for day-to-day

0:59:30

transactions therefore we needed to

0:59:33

abstract it into a paper currency that

0:59:35

was more portable more transactable

0:59:39

this introduced counterparty risk though

0:59:42

in the form of the custodian which was

0:59:43

the bank which later became the central

0:59:45

bank and

0:59:46

my argument here would be that the the

0:59:48

size of the nation state or the

0:59:50

government today

0:59:51

is a result of exploiting that very

0:59:54

attack surface that need to trust the

0:59:57

issuer or the custodian

1:00:01

the most forceful player in the room the

1:00:05

state the ability to extract wealth

1:00:07

essentially add infinitum rights until

1:00:09

the currency hyperinflates and if the

1:00:12

currency hyperinflated historically you

1:00:14

would you would your economy would

1:00:16

transition to the next strongest

1:00:17

currency so

1:00:19

um market actors

1:00:21

at least in the 20th century have just

1:00:23

been kind of forced into the

1:00:26

the best of the worst right whatever the

1:00:28

best fiat currency was

1:00:30

um they were forced to use so

1:00:36

bitcoin

1:00:36

by being this universally accessible

1:00:40

money

1:00:41

you know we again with a bitcoin world

1:00:43

you don't necessarily need

1:00:46

you don't need to custody it with a

1:00:49

warehouse and then issue take a take

1:00:51

receipt of a paper

1:00:53

promissory note to that money which

1:00:55

would be an application of money called

1:00:56

currency you don't need that

1:00:59

you can

1:01:00

to conduct bitcoin transactions at high

1:01:02

frequency we can abstract into something

1:01:03

that's more

1:01:05

trust minimized like the lightning

1:01:06

network instead

1:01:11

bitcoins in a way it's like destroying

1:01:13

the notion of currency in a lot of ways

1:01:15

if you if you define currency as what is

1:01:17

government authorized

1:01:20

and so

1:01:25

bitcoin is like this globally accessible

1:01:25

monetary layer

1:01:27

it because it's pure purely digital it

1:01:30

can be integrated to these other layers

1:01:31

to increase its transactability and

1:01:33

whatnot

1:01:34

and i think the thought process i have

1:01:35

here is that

1:01:37

again if all of

1:01:39

the organizations we build all the

1:01:41

institutions we build

1:01:43

in the world

1:01:44

are just applications of money

1:01:48

but money historically was not as

1:01:50

accessible right it was um

1:01:53

largely centralized and controlled by by

1:01:55

banks and and then ultimately the nation

1:01:58

state

1:01:59

then this

1:02:00

impeded the experimentation process in

1:02:03

social institutions and businesses etc

1:02:06

etc is impeded capitalism

1:02:08

in general

1:02:09

so my my thought here is that by having

1:02:12

bitcoin that's a globally accessible

1:02:14

money you'll actually accelerate the

1:02:16

experimentation in social institutions

1:02:18

including government in the state

1:02:20

businesses etc

1:02:21

which leads to more innovation more

1:02:23

quality and lower cost

1:02:27

that's another way to view this

1:02:29

transition i think is that

1:02:32

money was something that was really hard

1:02:35

to access you know it was because gold

1:02:37

was so expensive to move we needed this

1:02:39

complex

1:02:43

set of complex interdependent

1:02:46

counterparty relationships you know the

1:02:48

central bank and the prime broker and

1:02:51

the the regional banks and there's just

1:02:53

all this uh this stack of promises

1:02:57

frankly

1:02:59

where bitcoin just sort of slices

1:03:00

through the whole thing so you don't

1:03:01

need promises because the money itself

1:03:03

is highly accessible and highly portable

1:03:06

so you can just have final settlement

1:03:07

right so you have real

1:03:09

truthful signals propagating

1:03:12

uh in the sphere of human action whereas

1:03:14

today there is a lot of opportunity to

1:03:17

obfuscate and manipulate those signals

1:03:21

so you know the net outcome of that

1:03:23

would be

1:03:24

a much more honest world built on honest

1:03:26

money

1:03:28

so say and i later got into this

1:03:32

point where you know all monies

1:03:35

and assets more generally as he points

1:03:36

out they exhibit this multi-level

1:03:39

marketing evaluation dynamic so

1:03:42

that is to say

1:03:43

you know sailor gave the example of

1:03:44

amazon and facebook

1:03:47

they were first on the cap table right

1:03:49

they were first to hold that stock

1:03:51

therefore they are rich forever

1:03:57

they were the first to own the

1:03:57

certificate to this company's capital

1:04:00

the capital of which

1:04:02

you know that companies

1:04:03

came to satisfy the wants of billions

1:04:05

around the world in the case of amazon

1:04:07

and facebook

1:04:08

so that

1:04:09

those first movers right the founders

1:04:12

basically benefit disproportionately to

1:04:14

everyone else you can't go buy facebook

1:04:16

or amazon stock today and expect to have

1:04:19

the multiple of return that say bezos or

1:04:21

zuckerberg had

1:04:25

i like to point out that this is very

1:04:28

similar to monetization actually and

1:04:32

if we consider that a stock certificate

1:04:34

is title to company capital right each

1:04:37

stock certificate represents a share of

1:04:39

that company's capital

1:04:40

you could analogize and say that money

1:04:44

is a title to the global capital stock

1:04:47

because money can be used to redeem

1:04:49

anything effectively

1:04:52

when in assets monetizing as we see with

1:04:54

bitcoin the early adopters right the

1:04:56

people that figure out first that hey

1:05:00

money that is resistant to supply

1:05:02

inflation and dilution is better than

1:05:05

all monies that are not

1:05:07

resistant to or not as resistant to

1:05:11

inflation or supply dilution the people

1:05:13

that figure that out first and buy

1:05:15

bitcoin first benefit disproportionately

1:05:18

in anticipation of later adoption

1:05:21

and this also works in reverse right

1:05:24

with fiat currency those that realize

1:05:26

that hey expanding the money supply is

1:05:28

diluting me diluting my interest in the

1:05:30

global capital stock

1:05:33

i see that this

1:05:35

supply expansion is being done

1:05:37

arbitrarily and is likely to continue

1:05:40

those that figure out

1:05:42

that game first and exit that game for

1:05:44

something like bitcoin benefit

1:05:46

disproportionately to later uh people

1:05:49

that are that are forced to exit and in

1:05:51

the case of something like

1:05:51

hyperinflation

1:05:55

this is just an important point that

1:05:57

wealth the nature of wealth is

1:05:58

hierarchical right whoever builds it

1:06:01

first or gets there first or owns it

1:06:03

first tends to benefit

1:06:06

will actually will benefit

1:06:09

not necessarily at the expense of later

1:06:10

adopters but will benefit in relation to

1:06:14

later adopters

1:06:16

and so this is the game this is the game

1:06:17

of investing it's like who can figure

1:06:19

out where the world is going first

1:06:21

this is the the aim of entrepreneurship

1:06:23

is to

1:06:25

map current production efforts to

1:06:28

anticipated future market data right

1:06:31

where is the world going this is

1:06:33

entrepreneurship in a nutshell

1:06:35

and so

1:06:36

the introduction of bitcoin is

1:06:38

interesting for governments even and

1:06:39

that it actually allows them say that

1:06:42

makes this great point that

1:06:44

it allows them to be a little bit more

1:06:46

entrepreneurial in competing for

1:06:48

citizenship and that a government could

1:06:52

adopt bitcoin right or start to acquire

1:06:55

some bitcoin

1:06:56

they could use the

1:06:58

uh the gains that result from

1:07:02

bitcoin's monetization to actually

1:07:04

reduce they would not need to generate

1:07:07

as much tax revenue

1:07:09

to remain a growing concern so they

1:07:10

actually reduce taxes

1:07:13

to attract

1:07:14

citizenship

1:07:16

so you could make this means that

1:07:19

the first mover nation states to adopt

1:07:22

bitcoin could use the wealth they gain

1:07:24

as a result

1:07:26

to decrease taxes and attract the best

1:07:28

and brightest citizens in the world

1:07:29

which is to say draw in more capital

1:07:33

business activity

1:07:34

uh more intellectual capital right or

1:07:37

entrepreneurial capital into their

1:07:39

country

1:07:41

as a result of using or adopting bitcoin

1:07:43

early so

1:07:45

that's interesting that's you know the

1:07:47

the state almost

1:07:49

has to play this game now too where if

1:07:52

they want to have a tax base in the

1:07:55

digital age they need to cater to that

1:07:57

tax base and bitcoin's a tool that

1:08:00

really

1:08:01

empowers that aim a lot or the

1:08:03

realization of that aim

1:08:05

and so

1:08:07

just to round off the discussion of

1:08:09

wealth being higher alcohol this is

1:08:11

another good way to think about fiat

1:08:12

actually is that

1:08:14

if all wealth is hierarchical and it's

1:08:17

whoever gets to where everyone else is

1:08:19

going first wins

1:08:21

you could think of fiat currency as a

1:08:27

in which a

1:08:28

privileged few right the shareholders of

1:08:30

central banks

1:08:32

and those nearest

1:08:34

the spigot of freshly produced liquidity

1:08:37

are effectively always the early

1:08:39

adopters they're granting themselves

1:08:40

this perpetual privilege to always be

1:08:43

the first at the pump you know to drink

1:08:45

the freshly produced money and spend it

1:08:47

as they see fit before

1:08:49

the value of it is diminished by

1:08:50

inflation

1:08:53

so i think that's a deep point that all

1:08:54

wealth is hierarchical the problem with

1:08:56

fiat is that

1:08:58

there's no game being played actually

1:09:00

toward the satisfaction of wants it's

1:09:02

just this isolated group of individuals

1:09:05

that have enabled themselves to drink

1:09:06

first always

1:09:09

um and which is a zero-sum game by the

1:09:11

way i should add that you know there's

1:09:13

that's

1:09:15

wealth destructive you're just stealing

1:09:17

from people

1:09:18

you're not creating any new wealth

1:09:21

through trade or innovation as you would

1:09:23

be doing in a hard money society so fiat

1:09:25

currency really perverts

1:09:27

the entire incentive schema which as we

1:09:29

said earlier

1:09:31

if incentives are the soil from which

1:09:33

human characters spring then we really

1:09:36

poison that soil the fiat currency so

1:09:38

it's no wonder that we get

1:09:42

really

1:09:42

bad wicked immoral behavior coming out

1:09:46

of you know state bureaucrats and

1:09:47

central makers

1:09:52

so shifting gears a bit we got into you

1:09:54

know cellular laid out a lot of

1:09:56

instances and examples of how different

1:09:59

industry players can use bitcoin to

1:10:01

their advantage

1:10:02

um on the energy company side

1:10:06

made this point about bitcoin mining

1:10:09

essentially if you're an energy producer

1:10:10

you can

1:10:11

the easy strategy is cell energy the

1:10:13

bitcoin miners

1:10:14

slightly more complex strategy is to

1:10:16

become a miner yourself

1:10:20

you could also buy bitcoin and announce

1:10:22

if you're a large energy producer that

1:10:24

would sort of trigger this game

1:10:25

theoretic dynamic we've been describing

1:10:28

most aggressively uh you could actually

1:10:30

raise debt right if you're a publicly

1:10:32

traded energy producer you can raise

1:10:34

debt against a company's p l and balance

1:10:37

sheet

1:10:38

use that debt to go out and buy bitcoin

1:10:41

uh pay your operating expenditures as a

1:10:43

miner so you could actually

1:10:45

become much more of a holder right you

1:10:47

can kind of do all all the

1:10:49

other um

1:10:51

make all the other maneuvers that sailor

1:10:52

laid out but you could also do it with

1:10:55

borrowed money effectively

1:10:57

so um and this i think you see reflected

1:11:00

in in microstrategy's macro strategy

1:11:02

where they are

1:11:04

really adhering to gresham's law

1:11:06

gresham's law says that

1:11:08

softer money will be spent and borrowed

1:11:10

and hard money will be

1:11:13

saved

1:11:14

and that's exactly what microstrategy's

1:11:15

done right they've um

1:11:18

they've put their liquid assets into

1:11:20

bitcoin they've also taken on leverage

1:11:23

um against the company's p l and balance

1:11:25

sheet

1:11:26

and also use those proceeds to buy

1:11:28

bitcoin so this is the strategy right

1:11:30

this is

1:11:32

the strategy we've seen microstrategy

1:11:33

and something you would expect to see

1:11:36

in energy producers who have the added

1:11:38

benefit that their

1:11:41

operational their operations can uh be

1:11:45

used to produce bitcoin as well right so

1:11:46

if it's

1:11:47

if you can't sell the energy into the

1:11:49

grid you can use it to mine bitcoin so

1:11:52

i think what you'll this leads to

1:11:54

eventually is a consolidation of bitcoin

1:11:56

miners and energy producers and it's

1:11:59

interesting which way that could go

1:12:01

today you would think the producers

1:12:02

would buy the miners

1:12:04

but you know if um miners keep

1:12:06

performing

1:12:08

as they have been and bitcoin keeps

1:12:10

performing and the the multiples and

1:12:12

mining are much higher than

1:12:15

energy production you could see miners

1:12:17

ultimately buying energy producers

1:12:19

and sailor walked through some history

1:12:21

on that too and then if you tack on in

1:12:23

that future where energy producers and

1:12:26

bitcoin miners are consolidated if you

1:12:27

just tack on financial services to that

1:12:30

consolidated entity then you have this

1:12:32

potentially this future banking industry

1:12:35

that's like producing energy mining

1:12:36

bitcoin and providing financial services

1:12:39

on top of it

1:12:40

so maybe the energy producers of today

1:12:42

are the banks of tomorrow something like

1:12:46

uh sailor went into how

1:12:49

bitcoin can be used to add to different

1:12:51

investment funds

1:12:53

to increase their shop ratio or increase

1:12:55

their uh which is say their risk

1:12:57

adjusted rate of return

1:12:58

um this is really interesting because

1:13:00

then bitcoin becomes just a dial

1:13:02

effectively you know you add

1:13:04

a certain percentage

1:13:07

you know assuming it continues to do

1:13:09

what's been doing the past 13 years you

1:13:11

would just add a certain percentage of

1:13:12

bitcoin to augment the risk return

1:13:15

profile of any given mix

1:13:17

of assets or any fund of assets so

1:13:20

it's a way to juice or sweeten

1:13:22

traditional fund returns which i thought

1:13:24

was really interesting and will

1:13:26

very likely be a very large demand

1:13:28

driver for bitcoin

1:13:31

and then uh and this is a big deal

1:13:33

because you know a sailor states very

1:13:35

clearly 100 trillion dollars of bonds

1:13:38

and fixed income assets are broken right

1:13:40

we are

1:13:42

we're now at the zero bound in uh

1:13:45

many parts of the world with government

1:13:47

bonds

1:13:48

and this is not

1:13:50

surprising actually when you study

1:13:53

austrian economics one of the

1:13:55

most mind-blowing insights that i got

1:13:57

from mises was that

1:13:59

all government action

1:14:02

is a misallocation of capital

1:14:05

because

1:14:06

all government action involves coercion

1:14:09

if a government

1:14:11

taxes citizens to build a bridge you may

1:14:14

think oh well that's great we have this

1:14:17

new bridge

1:14:18

you know how is that a misallocation of

1:14:20

capital

1:14:21

but what you don't see and this gets

1:14:23

into the scene in the unseen

1:14:25

are is all of the capital investment

1:14:28

that the money would have gone to

1:14:31

had it not been taxed away from citizens

1:14:33

to build the bridge

1:14:35

another way to say this is that

1:14:37

all government revenue is via taxation

1:14:40

all taxation is coercion

1:14:43

and coercion creates externalities right

1:14:45

people try to avoid it or evade it they

1:14:47

don't want to pay it

1:14:50

and it costs money to overcome

1:14:53

that resistance

1:14:55

and therefore the the end project funded

1:14:58

by taxation is by definition a

1:15:00

misallocation of capital if the

1:15:02

marketplace wanted a bridge there if

1:15:04

enough

1:15:05

collective market actor preference

1:15:07

wanted a bridge then it would happen the

1:15:09

market would create it enough people

1:15:11

would would vote with their pocketbooks

1:15:13

to make it happen

1:15:16

it's no wonder that bond government bond

1:15:18

yields have been collapsing right it's

1:15:21

this is capital they've borrowed

1:15:23

in the market and then they've allocated

1:15:25

to projects but it's all a misallocation

1:15:27

of capital so of course

1:15:29

the misallocation of capital is not

1:15:31

generating enough yield to pay

1:15:32

bondholders over time

1:15:35

and you see this reflected in just

1:15:37

more and more production of money this

1:15:39

is the the debt monetization process we

1:15:41

increase the supply of money use it to

1:15:43

buy government debt

1:15:45

and then the government goes on

1:15:46

misallocating more and more capital in

1:15:47

kind of this vicious circle

1:15:49

but the zero bound on government bond

1:15:53

yields is the inflection point of these

1:15:55

broken store store of values

1:15:59

um stores of value sorry because

1:16:01

psychologically a creditor is not going

1:16:03

to accept the negative interest rate you

1:16:06

know it's one thing to go from eight

1:16:07

percent to five percent

1:16:09

something like that it's an entirely

1:16:10

different thing to go from two percent

1:16:11

to negative one percent

1:16:13

all of a sudden use the creditor

1:16:14

actually paying the borrower which just

1:16:16

makes no sense

1:16:18

so i think as

1:16:21

you see more of these large capital

1:16:22

pools more of these allocators add

1:16:24

bitcoin as if even if nothing else as a

1:16:27

seasoner as we described earlier

1:16:29

that um you're only going to increase

1:16:32

the price of bitcoin which further

1:16:34

de-risk it

1:16:36

and this is one of the craziest things

1:16:37

about bitcoin is that the higher the

1:16:40

price goes

1:16:41

the less risky it is

1:16:45

which is to say the higher is likely to

1:16:47

go and this is really unlike this is

1:16:49

something unique to money some people

1:16:51

have described money as the bubble that

1:16:52

never pops

1:16:55

which is to say it's the asset that has

1:16:57

the most

1:16:58

marketability

1:17:01

which is the definition of money but so

1:17:02

it's it's held

1:17:04

in anticipation of future exchange and

1:17:07

that anticipation

1:17:09

is largely rooted i mean in all the

1:17:12

properties of money but

1:17:13

primarily rooted in the scarcity how

1:17:15

credible is the scarcity of this asset

1:17:18

and um

1:17:20

you know there's just no

1:17:22

example of that historically

1:17:24

except

1:17:25

the example of an asset being

1:17:29

as it has a higher market value it

1:17:31

actually has more

1:17:32

demand for it right this is contrary to

1:17:34

any other asset except maybe gold you

1:17:36

could argue historically as hard money

1:17:39

was sort of similar and that the higher

1:17:41

it went the more

1:17:42

cemented it was as the monetary standard

1:17:46

so with bitcoin like people that think

1:17:49

they have missed the boat

1:17:50

or they think bitcoin's too expensive at

1:17:52

60 000 or whatever the number is

1:17:54

like you really need to absorb this

1:17:56

point

1:17:58

it's actually the higher bitcoin goes in

1:18:01

price

1:18:01

the more secure is its network the more

1:18:03

likely it is to continue out competing

1:18:05

all other monies

1:18:08

typically the more regulatory headspace

1:18:10

it has too because again

1:18:12

the state is incentivized

1:18:14

to um

1:18:16

operate with this thing to try and tax

1:18:18

it to try and draw in business

1:18:21

it's actually the opposite is it you

1:18:22

know bitcoin's not like a stock where

1:18:24

it's overvalued it's the higher the

1:18:26

value of bitcoin the higher the values

1:18:28

of it of bitcoin is likely to go in the

1:18:30

future

1:18:31

really interesting um

1:18:33

somewhat simple but hard to accept point

1:18:36

there

1:18:38

finally uh you know sailor went into all

1:18:40

these areas that bitcoin improves

1:18:42

hardware applications operating systems

1:18:44

entertainment news service providers

1:18:46

which

1:18:47

again back to the beginning of the

1:18:48

conversation if we consider that all

1:18:51

human organizations are applications of

1:18:55

money then it's not surprising that

1:18:56

bitcoin's disruptive to gold disruptive

1:18:58

to money it's disruptive to all of these

1:19:00

higher order

1:19:01

applications

1:19:03

and he just does a brilliant job of

1:19:05

going through them individually and

1:19:06

describing how that's the case

1:19:09

but you know what i'd like to speak to

1:19:11

here is that the the core of all of this

1:19:13

and you've heard us say it a lot the

1:19:15

core of all these improvements is the

1:19:17

introduction of skin in the game

1:19:20

and this is a really important

1:19:24

concept

1:19:25

uh it's sort of synonymous with

1:19:27

accountability

1:19:29

you could say that those who take

1:19:32

the risk

1:19:34

make decisions relevant to those risks

1:19:37

and partake in the cost benefit of the

1:19:40

of the risk taken

1:19:42

and it's when you remove the costs of

1:19:44

risk-taking

1:19:46

that the system

1:19:47

systems get flooded with risky behavior

1:19:50

not surprising right if you reduce the

1:19:52

cost of

1:19:53

risk taking people take more risk and

1:19:57

um this is you know you could you could

1:19:59

look at this the scamming and spamming

1:20:01

on social media that we walked through

1:20:04

that's a bunch of risky behavior because

1:20:06

there's no cost right these people are

1:20:09

trying to execute these phishing scams

1:20:11

and and whatnot because

1:20:13

there's nothing to lose right it takes a

1:20:15

little bit of time to set up one of

1:20:16

these fake accounts and they send

1:20:17

someone a dm and maybe

1:20:19

once in a thousand

1:20:21

thousand f tries it works but that

1:20:23

that's all you need you just need it to

1:20:25

work once and a thousand because there's

1:20:27

no cost

1:20:28

but if you introduce a cost to the

1:20:30

spamming the phishing the scamming and

1:20:32

all that then it really just goes away

1:20:34

because you can flip that cost benefit

1:20:37

on the would be spammer scammer

1:20:40

and so you know it's not

1:20:43

and this is something we lack in digital

1:20:44

space and really it was the purpose of

1:20:46

proof-of-work originally as we talked

1:20:48

about was to

1:20:49

to be a counter-measure against this

1:20:51

this type of scammy or spammy behavior

1:20:55

but it's no coincidence to me that

1:20:56

digital space has been constructed

1:20:59

without skin in the game actually when

1:21:00

we consider

1:21:03

that fiat currency is similarly

1:21:05

constructed i mean again if if the

1:21:07

internet is just an application

1:21:09

of money and then our you know fiat

1:21:12

currencies is an application of money

1:21:13

but fiat currency has no skin in the

1:21:16

then it seems to me

1:21:19

almost intuitive that these systems

1:21:21

would come to mirror one another

1:21:24

and so

1:21:25

to break this down a little bit for

1:21:26

those who may not be familiar if you

1:21:28

look at something like gold

1:21:30

and again skin in the game it's just a

1:21:32

balance of incentives and disincentives

1:21:33

that keeps the system honest and

1:21:35

balanced

1:21:37

and and actors accountable

1:21:39

so with gold

1:21:41

you have the cost of mining the cost and

1:21:43

risk of gold mining

1:21:44

that's the proverbial stick right it

1:21:47

takes sacrifice to procure the gold

1:21:50

and then the market value which you can

1:21:51

sell the gold for on the marketplace

1:21:53

that's the proverbial carrot all right

1:21:54

that's the incentive so

1:21:56

you have this balance of mining cost and

1:21:59

risk as a disincentive balance against

1:22:01

the incentive of gold's market value for

1:22:03

instance

1:22:05

now with fiat

1:22:06

we know the cost of production are near

1:22:08

zero right this is just a database entry

1:22:12

uh in the case of the us at the federal

1:22:13

reserve just a central database someone

1:22:15

presses a key and then bam you've

1:22:17

expanded the money supply 10 trillion

1:22:19

dollars so

1:22:20

there's no stick right there's no

1:22:22

downside for central bank to produce

1:22:23

more money

1:22:25

the market value of

1:22:27

said money you know called the dollar

1:22:30

it's really an expression

1:22:32

if you boil it down of market actor

1:22:35

either ignorance or fearfulness that

1:22:37

people will continue to hold dollars

1:22:41

or maybe inertia too it's like oh well

1:22:42

dollars have always worked so i just

1:22:44

assume they're going to keep working

1:22:48

you know under the threat of capital

1:22:50

controls or whatever state measure of

1:22:52

coercion you just choose to hold dollars

1:22:57

that that's the the incentive against

1:22:59

the disincentives but clearly it's

1:23:01

much heavily weighted

1:23:03

uh to the incentives and that the

1:23:04

dollars are much more valuable in the

1:23:06

market than they cost to produce

1:23:09

so what does this lead to this leads to

1:23:12

a dynamic

1:23:17

where fiat currencies self-annihilate

1:23:17

and hyperinflation right if you there's

1:23:19

no just like the spamming and scamming

1:23:21

we said there's no cost to spam and scam

1:23:23

in digital space what do you get a flood

1:23:25

of spammers and scammers well there's no

1:23:27

cost to produce fiat currency what do

1:23:28

you get

1:23:29

a flood of fiat currency in the

1:23:30

marketplace which is exactly what we

1:23:32

have today

1:23:34

and it you know historically always gets

1:23:36

to the point

1:23:37

where the money becomes so rapidly

1:23:39

produced the supply has expanded so

1:23:41

rapidly that it ultimately goes into a

1:23:43

hyperinflation event and

1:23:45

um contracts to worthlessness frankly

1:23:50

you know these things happen gradually

1:23:51

then suddenly it may be a bitter pill to

1:23:53

swallow

1:23:54

people think that the us dollar could

1:23:56

hyperinflate in fact jack dorsey tweeted

1:23:58

about this recently

1:24:00

and there was an outcry from the

1:24:02

traditional economics

1:24:04

establishment saying oh no it can't

1:24:05

happen there's no inflation but

1:24:09

i mean just

1:24:11

look at the basic supply and demand

1:24:14

economics and draw your own conclusion

1:24:16

that's all i can say um

1:24:18

and i you know i can't

1:24:20

i'd be remiss if i did not share this

1:24:23

nietzsche quote that keeps rattling

1:24:25

around in my head that

1:24:27

everything the state has

1:24:29

is stolen everything it says is a lie so

1:24:32

when they tell you there's no inflation

1:24:34

yet you see the cost of food and gas and

1:24:36

everything else that you buy on a

1:24:38

day-to-day basis going up

1:24:40

you should probably ask yourself a

1:24:41

question um

1:24:43

you know

1:24:45

what are your sources and how do you

1:24:46

trust them

1:24:47

those sources or have you done your own

1:24:49

analysis so

1:24:53

and then to bring it back to bitcoin you

1:24:55

again this game in the game it's there

1:24:57

are incentives driving up the cost of

1:25:00

bitcoin production over time so this

1:25:02

this is to say

1:25:05

the cost of production increases this is

1:25:08

creating a more secure network

1:25:11

right which leads to more demand for

1:25:13

bitcoin as a store of value which leads

1:25:15

to a higher market price

1:25:17

which makes bitcoin mining more

1:25:19

profitable because they're paid in

1:25:20

bitcoin

1:25:22

which leads to more investment in mining

1:25:23

which leads to higher production costs

1:25:25

and this is the virtuous cycle

1:25:28

uplifts bitcoin's monetization process

1:25:31

and you have that virtual cycle

1:25:33

colliding with the vicious cycle

1:25:35

of fiat currency debasement worldwide

1:25:37

and that

1:25:39

collision is what we call hybrid

1:25:41

bitcoinization it's where bitcoin just

1:25:43

devours all of the failing

1:25:45

monetary technologies worldwide and um

1:25:49

you know it's early days but i think

1:25:52

so far so good everything that

1:25:54

bitcoiners have been saying up until

1:25:56

this point directionally has been true

1:26:01

and you know this it gets outside of

1:26:04

just money though because i would say

1:26:05

the core problem in the world today is

1:26:07

that our leaders don't have skin in the

1:26:09

game you know they lead from the back if

1:26:12

you will

1:26:13

and this is not the norm you know when

1:26:15

napoleon led his troops to battle he was

1:26:18

in front right he

1:26:20

he had skin in the game he was taking

1:26:22

his troops into

1:26:24

a situation of significant risk but he

1:26:27

himself was bearing those risks

1:26:29

and if his army emerged victorious well

1:26:31

he himself benefited in those rewards

1:26:34

um that's not what we're doing today

1:26:36

though we have people

1:26:39

leaders quote unquote leaders that are

1:26:43

separated from the consequences of their

1:26:45

decisions and in fact they can often

1:26:47

make decisions that just

1:26:49

hurt everyone else and don't affect them

1:26:51

at all

1:26:55

you know it's kind of a heads eye when

1:26:55

tells you lose situation

1:26:57

and so i think bitcoin

1:27:00

again fundamentally disrupting this

1:27:03

prime mover of human action called money

1:27:06

it's reuniting decision makers with the

1:27:08

costs and benefits of the decisions they

1:27:12

this is pretty obvious right like

1:27:14

if you are the decision maker you should

1:27:17

be accountable for that decision if it's

1:27:19

a bad outcome you should incur the loss

1:27:21

if it's a good outcome you should enjoy

1:27:23

the profit i mean this is just very

1:27:25

basic economics

1:27:28

yet in the current model of statism it's

1:27:30

not that way at all it's if the

1:27:32

government makes a bad decision

1:27:34

then they're just going to print more

1:27:36

money or increase taxes to go and

1:27:38

continue making more bad decisions so

1:27:40

everyone else bears the cost

1:27:43

of a few bureaucrats decision making and

1:27:44

this just does not work right we

1:27:48

if we've learned nothing else

1:27:49

historically is that that model of

1:27:51

statism

1:27:52

and systemized coercion it fails

1:27:55

eventually

1:27:57

and um

1:27:58

you know

1:27:59

so skin in the game is what we need we

1:28:01

need skin in the game we need

1:28:03

individuals to be accountable for their

1:28:05

actions and their decision making

1:28:07

clearly

1:28:09

um skin in the game is what makes

1:28:11

systems work skin in the game is

1:28:13

intrinsic to nature right if you

1:28:17

walk off a cliff and you fall 300 feet

1:28:19

to your death well you have skin in the

1:28:21

game you made a decision

1:28:22

and nature says hey

1:28:24

gravity is now going to hold you

1:28:26

accountable for that decision walking

1:28:27

off the cliff

1:28:29

you can't

1:28:30

print money to save yourself or paper

1:28:32

over your bad decisions you you face the

1:28:34

consequences of your actions

1:28:37

and so maybe the most important way to

1:28:39

conceive of bitcoin

1:28:42

is as that it is a permanent

1:28:44

implementation

1:28:46

of the skin in the game

1:28:48

or accountability principle

1:28:51

responsibility principle whatever you

1:28:52

want to call this

1:28:54

into money and money is

1:28:58

the prime mover

1:29:00

the soil from which all of our all human

1:29:02

actions springs directly or indirectly

1:29:07

i hope you guys enjoyed that uh sailor

1:29:10

and i are likely going to record some

1:29:12

more episodes but this is it for now

1:29:15

really enjoyed this series you know

1:29:19

sailer just has this brilliant way of

1:29:20

combining education and humor

1:29:23

that has radically expanded my worldview

1:29:26

i hope you guys enjoyed this one and

1:29:28

i'll see you back here again soon

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