SaylorCorpus

Bitcoin Economics and Evolution | The Saylor Series | Episode 16 (WiM062)

WiM Media · 2021-10-19 · 1h 29m · View on YouTube →

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[Music]

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we we just finished discussing the

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proof-of-work mining network and the

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seven layers of security energy

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technology

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uh politics finance the network itself

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the spatial security the temporal

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security

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so what you have is you have bitcoin as

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a decentralized crypto asset network and

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the thing that pops up a lot is

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is the question of

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what does energy usage look like over

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time and is energy usage is going to

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keep increasing as the price of bitcoin

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increases

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and i've seen commentary on this i think

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a lot of people get it wrong

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they seem to think

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as the price of bitcoin increases the

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energy usage will increase linearly

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and uh if there's a 100x

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increase in bitcoin price there's a 100x

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increase

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in energy usage and i think it's

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just worthwhile to make the observation

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that over the past 10 years

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mining network has gone from being

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energy intensive to being technology

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intensive

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another way to say it is

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is in every single industry you go from

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being labor intensive to capital

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when we started with a million people

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sowing or farming

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farming it was a labor intensive

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activity

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as the capital equipment gets better you

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know first you have

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you know horses and carts and ox carts

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and then you have tractors then you have

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mega tractors then you have factories

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all of a sudden the amount of labor

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matters a lot less

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and the amount of capital equipment

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matters a lot more

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there's a time when 90 percent of the

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country was farmers and now just one or

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two percent of the people in the country

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produce all the food

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is because it's become technology

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intensive

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um the bitcoin network is similar in

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that except

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substitute for labor energy

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and substitute for capital technology

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and we go back 10 years

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it probably took a hundred times as much

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energy to develop to generate an exah

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as it is right now

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uh the an s19 takes 30 megawatts per

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extra hash but an s9 takes 150 megawatts

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an extra hash see the 5x improvement

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energy efficiency over one generation of

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equipment

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we're like on the seventh generation of

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mining equipment

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if you go

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two or three generations then you

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you get that 100x improve increase in

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energy intensity

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if you look at where we are today and

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you go forward 10 years

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it's it's reasonable to expect that you

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will get

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improvements in efficiency from three

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dynamics

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you've got halvings in the protocol and

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we have one every four years so that

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means that over the course of a decade

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you have a 5x increase in efficiency

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from the havings

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then if you have a 4x increase

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energy efficiency and you get it twice

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or a 5x and a 4x you get a 20x increase

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over two more generations of hardware

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and now you've got a 20x times a 5x or

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about 100x

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increase in efficiency

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bitcoin price could go up by a hundred

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and the network efficiency would go up

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by a hundred

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and the energy consumption could be flat

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and uh and that's an important thing to

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keep in mind

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because

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people sometimes think well energy is

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used to secure the network

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no it's crypto energy it's encrypted

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energy that's used to secure the network

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and in order to get it from raw energy

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to crypto energy you have to run it

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through

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a shaw 256 miner that's properly

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engineered in a heat sink

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and so as the heat engineering improves

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the miners get more efficient as the

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semiconductor technology for asics

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improves the miners get more efficient

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and what you have in that dynamic

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is uh

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never-ending struggle

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between brute force and technique

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and kind of reminds you of something

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like nature

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and and competition

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there's two ways to do things right you

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either do

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you know use raw labor or you use

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technology

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and it's important to have the dynamic

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or that that yin and yang because

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when the technologies technologists get

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and they stop improving

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then the raw material or the brute force

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overwhelms and then and the control the

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network shifts back to the energy

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holders

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to the extent that the technologists

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upgrade their engineering facilities

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their heat technology their chip

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technology

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the energy becomes less important

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the technology becomes more important

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and the combination of both of these

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things

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require capital

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free-flowing capital

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in a free market the capital is

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continually seeking

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the best use

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should i invest money in creating the

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next generation of shaw 256 miners

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should i invest money in engineering a

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more efficient bitcoin mine with

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immersion cooling

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should i invest money in

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in commercializing more energy or

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plugging in more energy and just

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manufacturing

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the same design over and over again

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you know and

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so what you have is this nice delicate

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dance or balance of power

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but a model you can think of is

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when we first started bitcoin mining it

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was all energy intensive we were using

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off-the-shelf computer equipment

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and you were throwing raw power and raw

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commodity materials added

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it's rotated through a set of

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generations of of hashing equipment so

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you need energy but but the limiting

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factor is not really the energy the

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limiting factor on generating hashes is

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the mining rigs and maybe you could say

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the limiting factors on doing this well

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is the mining rigs properly installed in

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a mining center with the right cooling

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technology

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and if you look forward another another

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decade

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you'll see it's going to be much more

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technical intensive and

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you could have all the energy in the

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world

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but you're not going to be able to

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generate crypto hashes

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the um

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the break-even point of an s19 is like

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40 cents a kilowatt hour you could pay

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40 cents a kilowatt hour for electricity

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and make money the break-even point for

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an s9 is eight or nine cents kilowatt

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if you have 20 cent power you can't make

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money you got to turn it off

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the break-even point for the generation

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of equipment before that it's like two

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cents a kilowatt hour

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you can't pay three you got to turn it

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off and the generation before that

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you're down to half a penny a kilowatt

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so if you're looking to run antiquated

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equipment to generate hashes you have to

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be stealing the power

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if you have free energy and it's

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literally stolen or it's given away

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you can run eight-year-old or

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five-year-old equipment

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but if you're paying your way

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you have to run modern equipment

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so this is a dynamic model

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but it's important because it's a

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dynamic evolution of the sophistication

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of the bitcoin

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security network that has darwinian

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overtones

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because the bitcoin miner that just buys

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a bunch of equipment five years ago and

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stops upgrading

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becomes obsolete

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you know you won't last 10 years without

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equipment i mean your break-even point

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becomes uh a tenth of a penny

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after once you're three or four

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generations behind

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so this is like nature healing itself

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it's a very natural process

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you you if you're out of touch and

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you're a thousand miles away the free

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market

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somewhere else is going to keep moving

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the state of the art forward

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and should you isolate yourself you will

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you will find that you can't generate

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enough hash power to participate

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in the revenues and the transaction fees

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and it's the it's the network's way of

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simply squeezing you

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off the network

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now what that means

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is bitcoin miners are organic creatures

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with a negative feedback loop i mean in

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essence a market mechanism

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the difficulty adjustment is not just

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tactically every two weeks in the

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protocol

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the difficulty adjustment is in the

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market

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because if you don't upgrade your

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hardware every four years you become

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uncompetitive

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and you can't upgrade your hardware

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every four years

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unless you were responsible custodian of

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your capital if you spent all your money

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if you didn't save any money

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if you're not trustworthy if you don't

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have credit

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you can't buy any equipment and so so to

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stay competitive on the bitcoin network

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you have to be credit worthy you have to

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be competent and you have to be um

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you have to be credible someone that has

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the technology

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has to be willing to sell to you

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and so i i would say that the dynamic

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nature of the network is

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you have this competition

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between minor operations and the

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technology providers

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and the energy sources

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and the political jurisdictions

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and you have to be upgrading

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and you and you probably need to be

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improving your efficiency

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by a factor of of one and a half or two

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every year you know you're subject to

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moore's law

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and this uh competitive darwinian

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pressure and

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the result of that

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energy energy consumption is going to

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per extra hash

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will go from 150 megawatts an extra hash

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to 30 megawatts an extra hash

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to five megawatts in extra hash to one

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megawatt in exahash

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to half a megawatt you know and on down

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we're just going to move move down this

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efficiency curve

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you can

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you could imagine if i gave you uh you

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know this super computer

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you know the size of a sugar cube

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you know it's just look look at the

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amount of power on modern semiconductors

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right think about what's in the latest

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iphone chip

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we just keep compressing computing power

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and we find a way

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and human ingenuity is is like that they

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will keep finding a way

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to create more hash power

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using better technique

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so that suggests that energy consumption

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will probably increase non-linearly like

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with the log of the price

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if the price it goes up by a factor of

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energy consumption might go up by a

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factor of two or two and a half or three

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at some point

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you start to think you will roll over

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you'll peak we might have already done

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you peak energy consumption and then you

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taper off or it holds constant as the

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hash rate increases

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and instead of putting instead of a

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bitcoin miner spending half of their

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budget on energy

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you roll over to spending half of your

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budget on capital right you're buying

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capital and amortizing it

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and pretty soon your variable cost on

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energy is five percent and forty percent

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is capital equipment

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and what you've got

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is not an energy war

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to see who controls the network you've

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got a technology war

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to see who controls the network

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why is that good

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well because um energy is a raw material

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in the universe

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seventh generation shaw 256 miners are

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specialty equipment

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right everybody on earth can find some

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energy and throw it at the problem but

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but you know

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throwing the 11th generation of shaw 256

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mining equipment at the problem is

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something that probably no one's going

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to be able to do unless they spent a

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decade or two decades engineering that

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equipment and thinking about it

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so you have a specialization in the same

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way that john deere

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tractors are specialized after 100 years

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you know if you if you went back to a

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farmer in 1850 and you describe what a

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farmer in

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2020 can do

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right it's like night and day right

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that's what's going on with the network

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i think it's it's self-healing uh

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self-sealing self-correcting and uh

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the combination of the darwinian

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and and adam smith capitalist

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competition

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is critical advantage for for bitcoin

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versus say a proof-of-stake network

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right

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because in proof-of-stake network you

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pretty much turn off energy competition

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you turn off

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semiconductor competition and innovation

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engineering and heat engineering

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innovation

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you turn off capital financial

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competition yeah you turn off the

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political element

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and that means that i can get fat dumb

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and happy just right you know i can just

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a billion worth of my tokens

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and go to sleep for a decade right

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and uh and no one's trying to make the

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network better

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so it's not being tested there's no

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stressing of it

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right and ultimately

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the problem with that is you're going to

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suffer in integrity and durability right

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so we're again at this

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point where it's the bitcoin mining

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network itself

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is a free market in and unto itself

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and it reflects many of these properties

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of capitalism so there's this

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you know this yin and yang i guess of

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efficiency and magnitude sort of going

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back and forth and to your point that's

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reflected in many markets historically

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where we shift from labor intensity

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to capital intensity and this basically

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means that the capital

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as it becomes more plentiful and

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effective at amplifying labor you need

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less labor to accomplish the same

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results right this is a natural

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capitalistic progression

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um does this all let me ask you this so

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the the

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the useful life of a minor i'm not sure

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what that is maybe it varies generally

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it was four to five years four to five

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years so we have the older generations

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rolling to cheaper energy to remain in

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the marketplace

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newer generation steel energy right if i

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if i can boot leg energy then i can rock

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old generation miners profitable because

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my variable cost is zero right and then

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so newer generations

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would then be allocated to more

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expensive energy resources initially

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does this then are we is this an aspect

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of the

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gradually increasing

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fully amortized cost to produce each

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bitcoin

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or you actually because there's more

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capex i mean maybe the capex opex mix is

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changing but the overall cost to produce

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each bitcoin is rising

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which is putting upward pressure on its

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price in the marketplace is that another

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way to look at this

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well you know that's not clear to me

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um you know what's the price of energy

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is it going up or going down um

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you know maybe the price of energy is

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going up and then it's going down yes

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what's the price of what's the price of

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semiconductors is it going up or is it

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going down right well sometimes it's

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going up

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it's going up if there's a monopoly on

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the semiconductor chips

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and then it's going down when someone

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else enters the market and you know

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you're

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in our intel chip a 386 chip is pretty

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cheap now right yeah so chip so chip

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prices are coming down but the next

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generation is going up and but again

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it's a competitive thing

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there's what's the price of

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semiconductors well if there's only one

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provider and as a monopoly then you

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could say well the price of your

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semiconductors is going to go up every

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generation forever and and the cost of

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bitcoin money is going to go up but

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there isn't one semiconductor company

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there's multiple if there is one

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we're back to uh jeff bezos statement

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you know your margin is my opportunity

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bitcoin is an open market for mining so

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that so anybody can engineer a shaw 256

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anybody you know there's there's no one

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type of bitcoin miner there are people

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slapping these things in the back of

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trucks and driving them around and

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plugging them into bootleg power lines

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right it's not very efficient

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there are people that slap 500 bitcoin

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miners into a container

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and they just drop it on top of a pad

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does it work sure it does um

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is it properly heat engineered no does

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it get hot very what's the consequences

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of running hard

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you have to turn off the mining

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equipment some of the time so you lose

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efficiency and they burn out and they're

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useful life is not four years it's three

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years

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that's two years right so

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so there's a competition here

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just like there's competition for energy

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how will energy go up forever no i mean

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energy could go to zero right if i if i

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if i invent coal fusion

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you know will semiconductors go up

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forever

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no they'll go up until

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you know at some point bit main is

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you know they raised their prices

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and then everybody started talking to

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intel like you go to another

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semiconductor company and you say well

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look bitmains you know triple their

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prices and now you can make this much

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and now you draw somebody else into the

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space

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yes so so i think that there's going to

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be there's a dynamic equilibrium between

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the engineering and the semiconductor

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and the um

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and the energy

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and the best capitalized companies they

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can buy the new equipment you know like

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the publicly traded north american

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companies they will go and buy all the

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new shiny equipment

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and uh and poorly capitalized companies

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will run the old equipment

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and then and then you will roll forward

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like that

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so let me let me okay but

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it's not clear to me how much it will

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cost to create a bitcoin yes

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right because i mean that's a function

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well i mean if we look maybe the

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profitability of bitcoin is a function

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of the rate at which we add hash power

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versus the rate at which we add bitcoin

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holders

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if we increase the number of bitcoin

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holders by a factor of 10

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and we increase the hash power by a

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factor of two

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[Music]

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then uh the profitability and the

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revenue per extra hash is going to go up

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by a factor of five right yeah

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and if we increase the x ash by a factor

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of 10 and hold us by a factor of two

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the profitability is going to

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deteriorate

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and uh so the profitability of the

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bitcoin mining is going to have an

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impact on the rate of development of

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bitcoin mining semiconductor that's

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right

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so here's what i was saying is that

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every so the total opex and capex going

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into the bitcoin network out of having

0:20:57

you know it goes that total allocation

0:21:00

of expense goes

0:21:02

from producing call it 900 bitcoin per

0:21:04

day to 400. the revenue gets cut about

0:21:07

in half yeah so

0:21:08

the production cost per bitcoin has

0:21:11

effectively doubled

0:21:12

and then my thinking was that this

0:21:14

higher cost to produce each bitcoin is

0:21:17

actually incentivizing miners to hold

0:21:19

right they don't want to sell below cost

0:21:21

of production

0:21:22

so that's what's bootstrapping bitcoin's

0:21:24

price

0:21:25

uh upward

0:21:27

yeah like i mean i can see once every

0:21:31

four years

0:21:33

the the energy cost doubles

0:21:37

but we don't but but if if once every

0:21:40

four years i upgrade the equipment and

0:21:42

it's five times faster

0:21:45

right right now the question is how much

0:21:47

did you pay for the equipment right yes

0:21:51

right and the answer is if you paid a

0:21:52

lot for the equipment and you know

0:21:54

amortize the cost of the equipment and

0:21:56

the cost of the bitcoin and you've got

0:21:57

an answer but that's a price that a

0:21:59

vendor charges you which could be triple

0:22:02

or half

0:22:04

depending upon the competition in a very

0:22:06

competitive market well let's say it a

0:22:09

different way like if you're buying

0:22:11

intel grade 386 46 chips and slapping

0:22:14

them into your home appliance what is

0:22:17

the price of the intelligence that you

0:22:19

put inside your toaster

0:22:21

as a percentage of the cost of the

0:22:22

toaster

0:22:24

it's pretty cheap right i mean like at

0:22:26

some point the cost of intelligence

0:22:28

starts to drop because it's a commodity

0:22:31

market amd drove down the prices and so

0:22:34

everybody can put intelligence into

0:22:35

their appliance

0:22:37

because the

0:22:38

competition if there was no competition

0:22:41

it might go the opposite way

0:22:48

i think that um the the protocol

0:22:51

guarantees us

0:22:52

through havings that were we're going to

0:22:55

have to get five times as

0:22:57

efficient every decade

0:23:00

the other dynamics

0:23:02

like the rate of technology advance go

0:23:05

even faster

0:23:07

and they're they're just as much

0:23:10

and uh

0:23:15

i i do agree with you on this one idea

0:23:15

we're in a gold rush right now or a

0:23:17

bitcoin rush call it right between now

0:23:20

and like 2035

0:23:22

um and 2035 will have mined 99 of the

0:23:26

bitcoin right so you've got 14 years

0:23:30

and during the 14 years the block

0:23:31

rewards are pretty high relatively

0:23:34

speaking

0:23:36

and so it's very lucrative to be in the

0:23:38

business

0:23:41

the business is going to become

0:23:43

less profitable

0:23:45

likely

0:23:46

at the very least we know it's going to

0:23:48

rotate into a transaction fee business

0:23:51

so instead of 90 block reward 10

0:23:54

transaction fee

0:23:56

you could expect

0:23:57

90 transaction fee 10 block reward

0:24:02

and the transaction fees are also going

0:24:04

to scale more likely with the log of the

0:24:06

price not linear to the price

0:24:09

if i want to move a million dollars i

0:24:12

might pay you 10 bucks and if i want to

0:24:14

move 10 million dollars i would pay 12

0:24:17

but i'm not going to pay a hundred

0:24:19

dollars i'm just going to over bid

0:24:21

the million dollar buyer and what i want

0:24:23

to if i want to move 50 million dollars

0:24:25

i'll bid 14

0:24:27

yeah so

0:24:28

the transaction fees will increase with

0:24:31

the with the number of you know

0:24:33

transactions on the base layer

0:24:36

and that'll be a dynamic but the block

0:24:38

rewards go away

0:24:40

and so if you're a bitcoin miner

0:24:43

it's a very uh lucrative high growth

0:24:45

business right now

0:24:48

but it will move toward an efficient

0:24:51

transaction security network later

0:24:54

and you would do well

0:24:56

to buy bitcoin right that's why it makes

0:24:58

sense to hodl bitcoin if you're a

0:25:00

bitcoin miner

0:25:02

because it's your hedge

0:25:04

if bitcoin it's a hedge against two

0:25:05

things right it's it's a hedge against

0:25:07

the inevitable protocol which is the

0:25:09

protocol says bitcoin money is going to

0:25:12

90 less lucrative over the course of

0:25:15

right

0:25:16

cut in half once cut in half twice

0:25:20

over the course of 12 years

0:25:23

you get cut in half three times

0:25:26

so it's a it's a hedge against that

0:25:28

but it's that's a long term it's also a

0:25:30

hedge against the near-term

0:25:33

hash rate explosion

0:25:35

if you're mining bitcoin right now and

0:25:38

if somebody comes out of the blue and

0:25:40

they bring a lot of hash rate on the

0:25:41

network faster than you expected

0:25:44

then your market share gets cut

0:25:47

in that situation

0:25:50

bitcoin may win if everybody believes

0:25:52

bitcoin's gonna win and there's a flood

0:25:53

of people to enter the mining business

0:25:56

you want to own bitcoin

0:25:58

mining is going to get competitive

0:25:59

bitcoin is going to get more valuable

0:26:03

you definitely don't want to be in a

0:26:04

situation where

0:26:07

where you mine bitcoin you sell all your

0:26:09

bitcoin for cash

0:26:11

and then you're you know in that case

0:26:13

you're attempting to run a cash business

0:26:16

in 16 years

0:26:18

when the revenue has been cut in half

0:26:20

four times

0:26:22

right

0:26:23

right and and

0:26:25

presumably if you cut 100 to 50

0:26:29

to 25 to 12 to six

0:26:32

when you're generating six percent of

0:26:34

the revenue and everybody else has had

0:26:38

12 years or 16 years to get in the game

0:26:42

it's going to be more of a commodity

0:26:44

business right now that's not to say

0:26:46

that a bitcoin miner can't uh can't

0:26:49

compete and evolve it may be a great

0:26:51

business then too it may it may be that

0:26:53

bitcoin miners have all be running

0:26:55

lightning nodes

0:26:56

or running layer two platforms of other

0:26:59

sorts

0:27:00

you know it might be that as a bitcoin

0:27:03

miner you have a huge bitcoin treasury

0:27:06

and then you can generate yield on it

0:27:09

it might be that there are other

0:27:10

applications we'll talk about some it's

0:27:13

very logical for bitcoin miners maybe to

0:27:15

get into some of these other application

0:27:18

areas that will pop up

0:27:21

in time

0:27:22

and there are technology possibilities

0:27:27

so um

0:27:29

i i would say the logical thing to do in

0:27:31

business is you

0:27:33

you don't worry about what happens 16 to

0:27:35

20 years out if you can make a ton of

0:27:38

money now

0:27:39

i mean you might very well

0:27:42

make enough money now to have 10 20 30

0:27:44

100 billion dollars of capital then at

0:27:46

which point

0:27:47

you can go buy something else to get you

0:27:50

in the business

0:27:51

and my other my other point i guess here

0:27:54

is yes it's true bitcoin miners should

0:27:56

keep bitcoin

0:27:58

but it's also true that non-bitcoin

0:28:00

miners should keep bitcoin like the like

0:28:04

if you believe in bitcoin

0:28:06

then the logical

0:28:08

the the logic follows that no matter

0:28:10

what business you are in if you have

0:28:14

operating income you should invest in

0:28:16

bitcoin right

0:28:18

and if you are able to generate

0:28:19

financing if you can raise debt or

0:28:21

equity then you should also raise debt

0:28:23

and invest that in bitcoin so

0:28:26

that would be the case for

0:28:28

for other companies like microstrategy

0:28:29

looks at it that way we're not even a

0:28:31

bitcoin miner

0:28:37

but that's you know so that's my thought

0:28:37

on the bitcoin mining network and the

0:28:39

dynamic model over time

0:28:41

i think that some people intentionally

0:28:43

misunderstand this

0:28:44

like people that like proof of stakers

0:28:47

they they intentionally misunderstand it

0:28:49

because if they misunderstand it then

0:28:51

they can assume that energy consumption

0:28:53

is linear and then they can you know

0:28:56

play the esg card and pretend that

0:28:58

they're you know you do their virtue

0:29:00

signaling and say they're doing

0:29:01

something good for the environment

0:29:02

because they're not using energy

0:29:05

but the truth is they're not using

0:29:06

energy nor are they using technology

0:29:09

they're not using hardware technology

0:29:11

engineering technology or energy nor are

0:29:14

they submitting their network to

0:29:15

competition

0:29:17

and they're not using external capital

0:29:19

political or financial what they're

0:29:21

doing is they're creating

0:29:23

a protocol

0:29:25

a virtual protocol

0:29:27

in order to in order to create security

0:29:30

and even there if you're going to rely

0:29:32

upon a virtual protocol

0:29:35

to create security you'd be better off

0:29:37

to stake the protocol with an asset

0:29:40

that is outside of the network

0:29:43

that is external to the network so for

0:29:46

example the lightning network

0:29:48

makes a lot more sense because it's

0:29:49

staked with bitcoin

0:29:51

than if it was staked with lightning

0:29:54

right

0:29:56

yeah and it's paying again paying the

0:29:57

revenues to for services rendered which

0:30:00

is actually the routing transactions

0:30:02

versus just how much bitcoin you hold

0:30:04

it's not not how it works

0:30:06

so i think this is a key point here is

0:30:08

that the proof of work energy

0:30:10

expenditure

0:30:11

is actually transforming what would just

0:30:13

be kind of video game asset into a

0:30:16

macroeconomic asset there's a real

0:30:19

it's creating a vortex in the real world

0:30:21

yes yeah yeah

0:30:24

yeah it's it's your it's your connection

0:30:29

thermodynamic reality and

0:30:31

socio-political reality exactly you

0:30:34

can't be in denial of those two yes

0:30:38

what people think of you matters if the

0:30:40

person is the police officer on the beat

0:30:43

runs the country what they think of you

0:30:45

matters yes

0:30:48

what nature thinks of you matters if you

0:30:50

decide to step off a cliff by looking

0:30:52

the wrong way

0:30:54

nature's opinion matters right whether

0:30:56

or not you respect nature or not

0:30:59

and so it's very important that if

0:31:01

you're building something

0:31:03

that you want to last for a thousand

0:31:04

years

0:31:05

you respect politics

0:31:07

yeah and you respect thermodynamics and

0:31:10

you respect physics yes and proof of

0:31:13

is this uh it's very creative

0:31:16

invention to create to continually

0:31:20

connect

0:31:22

and synchronize

0:31:24

right the bitcoin network

0:31:27

political physical reality

0:31:30

yeah it's holding never never-ending

0:31:32

never-ending evolution every four years

0:31:34

every two years

0:31:35

a new minor a new chip a new place a new

0:31:38

thing

0:31:39

throw away the old

0:31:41

the you know you have to the old

0:31:43

generation has to die

0:31:45

so the new generation can form

0:31:48

so that the creature can evolve right

0:31:50

otherwise the creature stagnates

0:31:53

and all and becomes progressively more

0:31:55

fragile

0:31:56

right

0:31:58

until it's no longer capable of

0:32:01

competing in the real world

0:32:03

and that that energetic anchor to this

0:32:06

to these realities you know energetic

0:32:08

which begets socio-political reality

0:32:11

this is what's keeping all network

0:32:13

participants honest and accountable

0:32:15

right there's this

0:32:17

synchronization and rule set imposed

0:32:18

upon them every 10 minutes you can't

0:32:20

avoid it's like gravity you know you

0:32:22

just cannot ignore it

0:32:27

yeah it's quite a wonderful thing it's a

0:32:27

it's a crypto universe yeah

0:32:30

satoshi played god

0:32:32

created you know either call it creating

0:32:34

your own universe and setting the

0:32:35

apprentice in motion

0:32:37

by defining the space time constant

0:32:40

or the other metaphor is you release the

0:32:42

creature into cyberspace

0:32:45

you set the genetic dna

0:32:47

of the creature you controlled how it

0:32:48

will procreate

0:32:50

and once you release the thing

0:32:52

then you know it spreads as some kind of

0:32:55

swarm

0:32:57

life form

0:32:58

you know continually evolving

0:33:02

so i think

0:33:04

with with that i think we conclude that

0:33:05

the bitcoin mining network and the

0:33:07

bitcoin network in general is quite a

0:33:09

wonderful thing

0:33:11

now the next question is

0:33:13

how does it scale how does that if we go

0:33:16

beyond the network

0:33:17

the primary

0:33:19

the primary purpose of the bitcoin

0:33:22

mining network is to provide security

0:33:24

and enforce

0:33:25

you know protocol integrity and

0:33:28

durability

0:33:30

of the system

0:33:32

and it does that very well but so how do

0:33:34

we actually scale out to provide

0:33:38

hundreds of billions of transactions a

0:33:41

day to billions of people on the planet

0:33:43

at the speed of light

0:33:45

you know using the latest computer

0:33:47

technology

0:33:50

that's i think where a lot of people

0:33:52

fall down they don't

0:33:53

you know they they just want to look at

0:33:55

the base chain and say well it moves

0:33:57

seven transactions a second and so you

0:33:59

can't scale but but

0:34:01

they lack the imagination

0:34:04

to understand the consequences of the

0:34:06

layering

0:34:07

so the bitcoin monetary network it

0:34:10

scales

0:34:12

based upon

0:34:13

platforms at the layer 2 level and then

0:34:16

applications above that level and you

0:34:20

could call them layer three applications

0:34:22

or you could call and you can also have

0:34:24

applications embedded in applications on

0:34:26

top of applications

0:34:29

so you could have layers four five six

0:34:31

and seven and eventually you've got and

0:34:33

you could have interplay between the

0:34:34

applications

0:34:36

but um

0:34:37

for the purposes of our discussion let's

0:34:39

just call them layer 2 platforms and

0:34:41

layer 3 applications in order to keep

0:34:44

from getting too confusing in our

0:34:46

semantics

0:34:51

so what i want what's the most important

0:34:51

one well lightning is a very interesting

0:34:53

and maybe the most important

0:34:56

layer two platform

0:34:58

and the idea behind lightning is

0:35:01

i want something to be exponentially

0:35:03

faster and exponentially cheaper and in

0:35:06

return

0:35:07

i'm willing to secure

0:35:09

exponentially less

0:35:13

money

0:35:16

if i have only a hundred dollars at risk

0:35:20

then there's no reason why i couldn't do

0:35:22

10 million transactions on that channel

0:35:26

and uh and that totally makes sense

0:35:28

because as you scale out if you look at

0:35:31

the transactions that eight billion

0:35:33

people need to make on this planet every

0:35:35

single day

0:35:37

you know

0:35:38

the majority of the transactions are

0:35:40

actually

0:35:41

a value less than one dollar

0:35:44

in fact there are plenty of transactions

0:35:47

that could be valued in pennies

0:35:49

and then the big transactions might be

0:35:52

might be ten a hundred dollars or a

0:35:54

thousand dollars and

0:35:56

if you i probably if you were to look at

0:35:58

the transaction stream on the visa

0:36:00

network

0:36:01

or the mastercard network

0:36:04

right i mean the average check is like

0:36:06

28 bucks or something but there's

0:36:09

billions and billions and billions of

0:36:10

them they go on

0:36:13

that you don't really need the final

0:36:15

settlement security of bitcoin

0:36:17

because that's

0:36:19

the highest level security in the world

0:36:21

and you're getting that to move a

0:36:23

billion dollars

0:36:26

know you probably only need to to move a

0:36:28

billion dollars around

0:36:30

you know occasionally it's like if i

0:36:32

moved

0:36:34

seven nuclear-powered aircraft carriers

0:36:36

per second

0:36:38

anywhere in the universe i could

0:36:40

probably win whatever war i wanted to

0:36:43

right

0:36:44

if that's my if that's what i'm using my

0:36:47

teleportation power for so bitcoin is

0:36:50

good for teleporting large chunks of

0:36:52

value but for

0:36:55

for all of the routine work you want

0:36:57

something smaller and so the logical

0:36:59

thing to do is

0:37:01

the way lightning gets at it is you're

0:37:03

putting liquidity in a channel you're

0:37:05

putting value in a channel and the

0:37:07

channel is at risk but the overall

0:37:09

blockchain is and

0:37:10

and of course the beauty is you get to

0:37:12

keep your keys

0:37:15

and keep custody of that so that's a

0:37:16

very fascinating thing

0:37:20

you can build

0:37:21

the universe on lightning so and so

0:37:24

presumably

0:37:26

you could give eight million eight

0:37:28

billion people lightning wallet or

0:37:30

wallets more than one you could build

0:37:33

lightning into

0:37:34

paypal and square cash and apple pay and

0:37:37

google pay and

0:37:39

facebook

0:37:40

and every messaging app

0:37:45

you could use it

0:37:47

at all scale

0:37:49

not just to move money but to move

0:37:51

anything

0:37:53

the other day i did a thousand satoshi

0:37:55

transaction on lightning for one satoshi

0:37:57

in one second

0:37:59

hey everybody

0:38:01

as you've no doubt learned by watching

0:38:02

this show bitcoin is the single most

0:38:05

important asset you can own in the 21st

0:38:07

century

0:38:08

and one of the most important companies

0:38:10

in bitcoin today is knightig

0:38:13

knightig's mission is to get bitcoin

0:38:15

into the hands of as many people as

0:38:18

possible

0:38:19

one of the ways they are accomplishing

0:38:21

this mission is by empowering banks and

0:38:24

financial technology companies to offer

0:38:27

their own bitcoin products and services

0:38:30

as a true game changer in the industry

0:38:33

naidig is safely unlocking the power of

0:38:35

bitcoin for forward-thinking individuals

0:38:38

and institutions alike

0:38:40

led by robbie guttmann yenzao and ross

0:38:43

stevens nydia has absolutely exploded

0:38:46

onto the bitcoin scene recently and has

0:38:48

quickly become a leader in this space

0:38:52

so whether you are a professional

0:38:53

investor looking for asset management

0:38:55

services

0:38:57

or a company looking to white label your

0:38:59

own bitcoin product or service

0:39:02

consider nidig your single source

0:39:04

solution for everything bitcoin

0:39:08

so lightning is a is an an obvious um

0:39:12

layer two

0:39:14

and um and the simple

0:39:18

the simple design

0:39:20

idea is

0:39:22

i create a channel with a million times

0:39:25

less bitcoin in it and i move it a

0:39:27

million times faster

0:39:32

and that works fine

0:39:35

i mean and there are other approaches of

0:39:36

course but um

0:39:39

if we give up um

0:39:41

you can give up uh all of the proof of

0:39:43

work because you don't have as much at

0:39:45

stake

0:39:46

and um

0:39:48

and your state you're creating a staked

0:39:50

network but you're staking it with an

0:39:52

external asset

0:39:54

that derives its value

0:39:57

external assets external to it

0:40:01

energy capital and political capital and

0:40:03

technical capital are flowing into

0:40:05

bitcoin capital on bitcoin capitals and

0:40:07

flowing into the lightning network in

0:40:10

order to secure it

0:40:18

once you get that idea

0:40:18

you realize that

0:40:20

a layer one layer two solution is a lot

0:40:23

better idea than a higher performance

0:40:25

layer one solution

0:40:27

because making the layer one twice as

0:40:29

fast or three times as fast or ten times

0:40:32

as fast or a hundred times fast it

0:40:34

doesn't get due to a million times as

0:40:37

and uh what what you're doing is

0:40:41

it's no different than the common sense

0:40:43

way that human beings solve every

0:40:45

problem

0:40:46

if you had

0:40:48

a million dollars in the bank and you

0:40:50

were going out on a saturday night and

0:40:52

you needed to spend money quickly

0:40:55

you would take a hundred dollars in cash

0:40:58

and you would break it into 25 bills you

0:41:01

put it in your wallet

0:41:02

and you would rest assured that you

0:41:04

can't lose more than a hundred dollars

0:41:06

and you would leave the rest of the

0:41:08

money locked up in the bank

0:41:10

and the money in the bank takes 48 hours

0:41:12

to get at

0:41:13

and takes lots of degrees of

0:41:15

authentication

0:41:16

is behind

0:41:18

three feet of steel

0:41:20

and the money in your wallet

0:41:23

you know is in your front pocket

0:41:25

and it takes one second to get at

0:41:27

and you know occasionally you drop a

0:41:30

five dollar bill on the floor when

0:41:31

you're drunk

0:41:33

and the life goes on

0:41:35

[Music]

0:41:36

and if somebody said you had to take the

0:41:38

entire million dollars with you out to a

0:41:40

nightclub every saturday night

0:41:43

you would say that's pretty stupid

0:41:45

and they said well you know the bank

0:41:47

vault doors are too heavy we're just

0:41:49

going to have to re-engineer them to

0:41:50

make them a thousand times lighter so

0:41:52

that you can open the bank vault doors

0:41:54

faster so that you can

0:41:56

access the million dollars on saturday

0:41:58

night while you're drinking yeah

0:42:00

you might think well maybe it wasn't

0:42:02

such a good idea to actually have access

0:42:04

to all my money while i'm drinking on a

0:42:05

saturday night

0:42:08

and the same is true with the idea of a

0:42:09

of a base layer right maybe it's not

0:42:11

such a good idea to have that many

0:42:13

transactions on the base layer because

0:42:16

because every single moving part is just

0:42:19

something to break

0:42:21

right and uh and so you you got yourself

0:42:23

too many moving parts

0:42:25

you don't want it so the layer two

0:42:28

platform is this idea that

0:42:30

what i want to do

0:42:32

is i want to just take i want to create

0:42:34

a cache

0:42:37

a cache if you will of a much smaller

0:42:40

amount of value

0:42:41

that i have that is much less at risk

0:42:43

that i can afford to move much quicker

0:42:46

and i don't need the same degree of

0:42:47

security on it

0:42:50

and um

0:42:52

lightning is not the only layer two

0:42:54

platform you can conceive of you can get

0:42:56

another crypto network could be a layer

0:42:59

two platform in theory you could spin up

0:43:02

a proof of stake network and you could

0:43:03

stake it with bitcoin

0:43:05

and it you know and it wouldn't be

0:43:08

uh a theoretically different thing

0:43:11

if you spin out you can also spin up a

0:43:14

crypto network proof of stake and then

0:43:16

you can move bitcoin through it but if

0:43:18

you're

0:43:19

if you're using the native token and

0:43:21

moving bitcoin then your bitcoins only

0:43:23

as secure as the native token and and of

0:43:26

course if the native token is gender to

0:43:28

thin air and yo-yo coin

0:43:31

right then

0:43:32

that's a problem

0:43:34

ultimately the real issue with layer

0:43:36

twos is

0:43:37

is you're moving a portion of value into

0:43:42

into that layer two trusting the layer

0:43:45

in order to get performance or

0:43:47

functionality exactly

0:43:49

so so you can do it

0:43:52

you can do it with lightning and the

0:43:54

logical thing you do is you stick with

0:43:56

bitcoin and then you reduce the

0:43:59

you reduce the risk to the channel

0:44:01

liquidity that's a way to do it and

0:44:04

that's logical

0:44:06

another way to do it is um

0:44:08

is like

0:44:10

to build some kind of system like maybe

0:44:13

if i was in a exchange

0:44:15

and i had bitcoin on the exchange and i

0:44:17

created an api

0:44:19

to the exchange that was programmable

0:44:22

then in a way the exchanges is holding

0:44:24

the bitcoin the api is providing you

0:44:26

with a very fast speed

0:44:29

now you've taken a different risk you've

0:44:31

taken

0:44:32

exchange risk

0:44:34

you know which is some counterparty risk

0:44:36

of some sort

0:44:38

if you uh if you use a paxos or a knight

0:44:40

egg platform those are those are kind of

0:44:42

more conventional platforms

0:44:45

to build applications on top of

0:44:48

like nida has a platform for you to

0:44:51

build a credit card plugged into bitcoin

0:44:53

and paxos is a platform you know plugged

0:44:56

into paypal you know to their

0:44:58

application

0:45:00

and so if you

0:45:01

if you want that kind of platform you

0:45:04

plug a mobile application into one of

0:45:07

those platforms there is some risk with

0:45:09

that counterparty

0:45:10

it is limited to the amount of bitcoin

0:45:13

you're handling on the platform and you

0:45:15

do all such things to mitigate the risk

0:45:19

clearly there are

0:45:21

there is a need for layer two platforms

0:45:23

and there isn't a need for just one

0:45:24

layer two platform like lightning is a

0:45:27

compelling

0:45:28

decentralized

0:45:30

you know layer two platform

0:45:32

because it's decentralized

0:45:34

but there are a lot of layer two

0:45:36

platforms that will be centralized

0:45:38

because they need to be regulated in

0:45:39

order to in order to meet with

0:45:41

regulatory compliance obligations yeah

0:45:44

and there are a lot of counterparties

0:45:46

like a credit card company

0:45:49

might might prefer to work with a

0:45:51

centralized layer two than a

0:45:53

decentralized layer two

0:45:55

because they have regulatory constraints

0:45:58

yeah and this is all this is similarly

0:46:01

rooted

0:46:02

in something very fundamental as proof

0:46:04

of work is there's this fundamental

0:46:05

tradeoff between security

0:46:08

and freedom typically

0:46:10

and so in money we're seeing that the

0:46:12

security model of bitcoin is its

0:46:14

decentralization

0:46:16

but with that comes a lot of work right

0:46:19

it doesn't do many transactions per

0:46:20

second but what you can do is abstract

0:46:22

that bitcoin to a more centralized

0:46:25

database whether it's a

0:46:27

custodian

0:46:28

or a lightning a lightning is kind of a

0:46:30

decentralized um

0:46:32

centralizing force

0:46:34

you pick up all this functionality but

0:46:36

you're giving up some of the trust

0:46:37

minimization you get at the base layer

0:46:41

i i would say that

0:46:44

if your focus was on property and what

0:46:46

you want is digital property

0:46:49

you want the system optimized for

0:46:51

durability integrity over time and

0:46:53

performance and functionality and

0:46:56

compliance are not on your list your

0:46:58

list is durability integrity and

0:47:00

mortality yeah

0:47:03

very simple but as you move toward

0:47:05

applications

0:47:06

and you move away from property toward

0:47:09

applications you either have to optimize

0:47:11

for functionality

0:47:13

like if there if there is no

0:47:14

functionality there's no application

0:47:17

or you have to optimize for performance

0:47:21

if i can't pay for the coffee you know

0:47:23

within one second i can't pay for the

0:47:24

coffee or you have to optimize for um

0:47:28

compliance

0:47:30

if i really want to um to issue an

0:47:33

insurance policy or i want to issue a

0:47:35

security or if i want to issue maybe a

0:47:38

yield a yield token

0:47:41

and it's illegal

0:47:43

in a certain state

0:47:45

then if i want to do it i have to

0:47:47

actually

0:47:48

comply

0:47:50

and compliance pops up with stable coins

0:47:54

compliance pops up with defy exchanges

0:47:56

compliance pops up with derivatives

0:47:58

compliance will pop up with any kind of

0:48:01

thing that looks like it's a security

0:48:02

token

0:48:03

these are all

0:48:04

applications

0:48:06

and but you know is there a future for

0:48:09

those applications on top of bitcoin

0:48:13

bitcoin's not the application

0:48:17

right uh it's it's and the application

0:48:19

will be built on a layer two platform

0:48:24

or it'll be built naked against the

0:48:26

bitcoin right maybe it maybe it is

0:48:29

you know you don't use a platform like

0:48:32

i can implement my bitcoin credit card

0:48:35

using the knightig platform or i could

0:48:36

hire a

0:48:38

army of programmers and i could build it

0:48:40

one off right right

0:48:42

right there's this there's this little

0:48:43

battle of you know do i build a custom

0:48:46

app or do i build an app using your sdk

0:48:50

and so platforms are going to be you

0:48:53

know either operating system type things

0:48:56

with an sdk

0:48:58

you know

0:49:02

yeah this i mean that's what they're

0:49:02

going to be they're going to look like

0:49:04

that and it might be it looks like an

0:49:07

aws where they spin up services

0:49:10

you could imagine aws spinning up a

0:49:13

whole package of like lightning nodes

0:49:16

if i could spin up my lightning nodes

0:49:19

you know and run them maybe i would do

0:49:21

that maybe i wouldn't do that

0:49:23

probably lightning is not the best

0:49:24

example because people are looking for

0:49:26

something totally decentralized there

0:49:29

but um

0:49:31

a better example would

0:49:33

just be an sdk that allows someone to

0:49:36

deploy a mobile app

0:49:38

that has uh has lightning and bitcoin

0:49:41

money transfers embedded in the mobile

0:49:44

app and i just want to do it quick and

0:49:46

easy yeah i guess i can scale the back

0:49:49

end there's kind of a continuum right

0:49:51

where we have this

0:49:52

totally

0:49:53

kind of decentralized layer two and

0:49:55

lightning maybe you have sdks in the

0:49:57

middle versus a fully centralized

0:49:59

solution via via nidig or someone else

0:50:01

but it just speaks to the versatility of

0:50:03

bitcoin which again you can't get from a

0:50:05

gold right you can't get this

0:50:07

versatility of application layer with

0:50:09

something like gold

0:50:10

and there's going to be competition

0:50:12

right massive competition with regard to

0:50:15

what are the sdks and the layer 2 tool

0:50:19

you know and even and even lightning has

0:50:21

like lightning labs creating a tool kit

0:50:24

to help you yeah boy lightning right so

0:50:27

so that's competition

0:50:29

and it's sort of interesting but it gets

0:50:31

a bit it gets theoretical in a way so

0:50:33

it's actually probably

0:50:34

more instructive to move down to the to

0:50:37

the applications themselves and talk

0:50:39

about

0:50:40

what are the applications of bitcoin

0:50:42

that scale the system

0:50:48

because these are the things that are

0:50:48

that make the difference and uh once you

0:50:51

start to think about the the way the

0:50:54

range of applications then you figure

0:50:56

out what you might build into your

0:50:57

platform if you're trying to create a

0:50:58

business

0:51:00

hosting those applications

0:51:04

so let's talk about that um the the

0:51:07

obvious application

0:51:10

you know is is

0:51:12

is the individual holder that owns

0:51:14

bitcoin or just holds it in cold storage

0:51:17

for long periods of time so

0:51:19

it's like the family

0:51:20

or the individual i think that's

0:51:23

pretty well understood and that's been

0:51:26

pioneered for a while

0:51:29

um the the thing that's um

0:51:32

that's varying is the way that

0:51:35

that individual chooses to hold the

0:51:37

bitcoin and that's where it gets really

0:51:39

interesting

0:51:41

so um

0:51:43

for example probably the

0:51:47

well the one thing i probably want to

0:51:48

start with is this observation that

0:51:51

that one interesting application of

0:51:52

bitcoin is a bond

0:51:54

you can actually create

0:51:56

a derivative or a security of bitcoin

0:52:00

and scale the network with the bond

0:52:03

so if a government

0:52:06

owns bitcoin

0:52:07

right the government is the customer and

0:52:10

if the government then buys the bitcoin

0:52:12

and then issues sovereign debt

0:52:14

the solver in debt becomes a bitcoin

0:52:16

derivative

0:52:18

so you're so you're creating credit from

0:52:20

bitcoin bitcoin is the base layer money

0:52:23

and and the debt or the credit of the

0:52:26

government or the bond is the is the

0:52:28

layer to money

0:52:30

um it could be backed in whole by

0:52:32

bitcoin like 100 or it could be in part

0:52:35

by bitcoin or something if a

0:52:37

municipality like a city

0:52:40

buys bitcoin and issues municipal

0:52:42

municipal bonds

0:52:45

that becomes another form of uh of an

0:52:47

application of bitcoin if an agency like

0:52:49

fannie mae or freddie mac or any

0:52:51

international agency you know united

0:52:54

nations or the like if they were to buy

0:52:56

bitcoin and then issue any kind of bonds

0:52:59

it's this it's it's another example of a

0:53:01

derivative

0:53:03

when a corporation buys bitcoin like

0:53:05

microstrategy

0:53:06

and then we issue a bond that's backed

0:53:09

by the bitcoin we created that

0:53:10

derivative

0:53:12

and you could even take

0:53:15

you could take uh bitcoin there's 700

0:53:18

billion dollars of this bitcoin out

0:53:19

there and you could issue asset-backed

0:53:21

bonds call it bitcoin-backed securities

0:53:24

these be mortgage-backed securities

0:53:27

and with mortgage-backed securities we

0:53:29

take a bunch of heterogeneous assets and

0:53:32

we securitize them

0:53:34

into into a note

0:53:36

and so bitcoin is

0:53:38

imagine you had 21 million identical

0:53:40

houses

0:53:41

called bitcoins

0:53:43

and you decided you were just going to

0:53:45

create a bond backed by 11 of them

0:53:48

or 37 of them an asset back bond

0:53:52

all all of those

0:53:54

are applications of bitcoin they're not

0:53:58

applications the way a computer

0:53:59

scientist thinks of them

0:54:02

their financial applications of bitcoin

0:54:04

you can have technical applications of

0:54:06

bitcoin that are running on mobile

0:54:08

devices like mobile apps

0:54:11

you could have web applications

0:54:13

you could have uh you could have

0:54:16

financial applications of bitcoin and a

0:54:19

lot of times when people think about

0:54:20

scaling

0:54:23

they only think about the technical

0:54:24

applications

0:54:26

and they don't really think about the

0:54:28

financial applications

0:54:32

if we um

0:54:33

if we move on to the next layer our next

0:54:36

type of application think about mobile

0:54:37

payments

0:54:39

a mobile payment a mobile app that does

0:54:41

payments is is something you can plug

0:54:43

into bitcoin like square and paypal

0:54:46

have plugged mobile apps into bitcoin

0:54:49

and what does the mobile app do well

0:54:51

maybe unless you buy bitcoin

0:54:53

maybe it lets you send bitcoin

0:54:56

maybe it lets you send bitcoin via the

0:54:59

lightning network like the moon wallet

0:55:02

that's an application

0:55:04

but maybe it lets you send bitcoin on

0:55:06

its own proprietary network like square

0:55:08

cash tags you can send bitcoin between

0:55:11

one cash tag and another cash tag

0:55:13

instantly for free

0:55:15

or you could send you could send bitcoin

0:55:18

uh you know between any two mobile apps

0:55:21

within the network using

0:55:24

the handle of the network

0:55:26

right if you were doing that

0:55:28

then probably the the application

0:55:31

provider

0:55:32

custody some of the bitcoin and they're

0:55:34

moving in they become a fractional bank

0:55:36

a bitcoin

0:55:37

bitcoin becomes the central bank in

0:55:40

cyberspace

0:55:41

or as

0:55:42

our friend ross stevens would say the

0:55:45

decentral bank

0:55:46

in cyberspace

0:55:49

and then all of these other mobile apps

0:55:51

or websites become fractional banks

0:55:53

plugged into the central bank of

0:55:55

cyberspace

0:55:57

and um

0:55:59

and uh you know

0:56:01

they they custody some amount of bitcoin

0:56:04

uh the mobile payment space is

0:56:06

particularly promising

0:56:08

because all these mobile applications

0:56:11

are one step removed from being mobile

0:56:13

banks

0:56:14

and there's no reason why you know

0:56:17

facebook and apple and google and the

0:56:19

like don't eventually become mobile

0:56:23

it was a matter of time before they let

0:56:26

you send photos

0:56:28

and then at some point they decided to

0:56:30

let you send videos

0:56:32

and then they decided they give you

0:56:33

emojis

0:56:35

and uh then they decided they'd let you

0:56:37

send audio files

0:56:38

yeah and in a way you could think of

0:56:41

bitcoin you know it's just another file

0:56:44

it's all it's all media

0:56:46

file type yeah

0:56:49

so kind of inevitable

0:56:52

you start with mobile payments and then

0:56:54

when you start to think about moving

0:56:56

that around and the services that

0:56:58

consumers want right you're now into

0:57:00

retail banking

0:57:01

so the retail banking applications are

0:57:04

in essence savings accounts and credit

0:57:06

lines based on bitcoin for consumers

0:57:10

so you've got billions of people that

0:57:12

presumably want to carry

0:57:14

they want a wallet with an asset in it

0:57:17

and uh the asset would be bitcoin

0:57:22

and then they want to borrow against it

0:57:24

so you want to be able to draw down a

0:57:25

credit line

0:57:27

at an interest rate so i carry around

0:57:29

ten thousand in bitcoin i borrow a

0:57:31

thousand dollars i pay four percent

0:57:33

interest

0:57:34

now i've i've drawn the credit line in

0:57:36

the local fiat currency

0:57:38

in question euros dollars yen

0:57:43

i pay the interest rate whatever that is

0:57:45

and then i spend the money

0:57:48

and that's pretty popular i mean credit

0:57:50

cards are quite popular right

0:57:52

how many credit cards are there in the

0:57:53

world so we're really talking about

0:57:55

credit cards drawn against

0:57:57

pro bitcoin property instead of

0:57:59

unsecured credit lines

0:58:01

and then the opposite

0:58:03

is uh is also the case

0:58:06

maybe the consumers want savings

0:58:08

accounts

0:58:09

that generate yield

0:58:14

i have bitcoin i either hold a bitcoin

0:58:18

or i move the bitcoin into a yield

0:58:20

generating account or i move the bitcoin

0:58:23

into or i put it in a collateral line

0:58:26

and i i use it and pledge it as credit

0:58:41

is that the same everywhere in the world

0:58:41

no not really

0:58:43

uh you're going to have different

0:58:44

regulators in every jurisdiction in

0:58:46

every state they're going to tell you

0:58:47

whether or not you need a money transfer

0:58:49

license or a banking license or whether

0:58:52

or not you need a

0:58:53

securities

0:58:54

registration in order to give yield or

0:58:57

give loans or move money around

0:59:00

right and of course

0:59:02

there are always nuances i think this is

0:59:04

one of the nuances the caldos calls el

0:59:06

salvador to designate bitcoin as legal

0:59:09

tender so that they could easily move

0:59:11

bitcoin around on mobile apps

0:59:13

uh in a place where the government is

0:59:15

collapsed

0:59:17

then the solution's going to be

0:59:19

a mobile wallet with lightning

0:59:21

because there is no regulator

0:59:23

and and wherever wherever you have that

0:59:26

kind of

0:59:27

of weak governance then it's not going

0:59:29

to matter as the as the governance gets

0:59:31

stronger

0:59:33

then there are going to be questions of

0:59:35

what's your compliance requirements to

0:59:37

do a retail banking application

0:59:40

and it looks like it's it's literally

0:59:42

different state to state country to

0:59:44

country jurisdiction to jurisdiction and

0:59:46

evolving right now

0:59:50

and um

0:59:51

that's one of the reasons why maybe

0:59:52

centralized application c5 will actually

0:59:56

beat the defy

0:59:58

i mean because you know the message of

1:00:00

default is oh it's really expensive

1:00:01

going through all this aml kyc yes

1:00:04

that's true

1:00:05

but it's also illegal not to

1:00:09

so the real question will be can you do

1:00:11

it and how much

1:00:12

validation do you have to go through to

1:00:15

do it and how compliant do you want to

1:00:18

hey everybody so that was episode 16

1:00:22

of the sailor series

1:00:24

and we started off this installment by

1:00:27

taking a dive into the economic dynamics

1:00:31

of bitcoin mining

1:00:33

and what staley describes as the shift

1:00:35

from a

1:00:37

energy intensive business to a

1:00:39

technology intensive business

1:00:43

again if we're looking i think it's

1:00:45

important to reflect here on bitcoin

1:00:48

as sealer described it in a previous

1:00:50

episode

1:00:51

as a microcosm of capitalism

1:00:55

because what we're seeing here and

1:00:56

describing here in bitcoin mining

1:00:58

is indeed a natural progression of

1:01:00

capitalism itself so

1:01:03

this is akin to

1:01:05

the bitcoin mining shifting from energy

1:01:07

intensity to technology intensity

1:01:10

is akin to the shift from

1:01:13

labor intensity to capital intensity in

1:01:16

agriculture

1:01:17

so what does this mean

1:01:19

uh it's in the name actually capitalism

1:01:21

right the purpose and intent of

1:01:23

capitalism is to accumul accumulate

1:01:26

capital

1:01:27

and capital is anything that accelerates

1:01:33

an actor

1:01:34

from an intention to the realization of

1:01:37

that intention um

1:01:40

so if you

1:01:41

are trying to go from new york to la

1:01:44

you know your shoes will accomplish that

1:01:46

aim at a certain speed a car will do it

1:01:48

much faster and a plane will do it even

1:01:50

faster than that so

1:01:52

as you increase

1:01:55

your sophistication up the capital stack

1:01:57

from shoes to car to an airplane you're

1:01:59

actually decreasing the distance in time

1:02:02

between you and your goal in this case

1:02:04

going from new york to la

1:02:08

as humans accumulate more capital

1:02:12

they are further magnifying the

1:02:16

economic output of labor right that's

1:02:18

what capital really does so

1:02:21

naturally

1:02:22

you know in the case of agriculture

1:02:25

when we didn't have much capital and

1:02:26

this could be you know knowledge tools

1:02:31

it took a lot of man hours to produce

1:02:34

enough food to feed everybody

1:02:36

but as you as we start to accumulate

1:02:39

capital

1:02:40

and we have additional

1:02:41

layers of of labor magnification it

1:02:44

takes less and less labor to feed the

1:02:46

whole population and so this is

1:02:47

reflected in

1:02:50

i forget the exact numbers you know

1:02:52

clearly at the dawn of the agricultural

1:02:53

age it was basically 100 of human labor

1:02:57

going into feeding everyone and today in

1:02:59

the world economy i think agricultural

1:03:02

employment is sub 5

1:03:04

so that is

1:03:06

only possible through the accumulation

1:03:08

of capital

1:03:10

and indeed

1:03:11

this is the purpose of civilization

1:03:14

actually is to trade and innovate

1:03:17

to magnify productivity in this way

1:03:20

and really those are in fact you know

1:03:23

despite common misconception people

1:03:25

think government is is involved in the

1:03:27

creation of capital

1:03:28

it's only through trade and innovation

1:03:31

that we can create capital in this way

1:03:33

and so for bitcoin this pattern plays

1:03:36

out in the network shifting from a very

1:03:40

energy intensive model as it was early

1:03:42

on when people were just mining on

1:03:44

computers

1:03:46

to a more

1:03:47

sophisticated

1:03:49

capital stack and therefore more capital

1:03:52

intensity over time

1:03:54

and so sailors are making the argument

1:03:56

here that

1:03:58

again contrary to common misconception

1:04:00

that the bitcoin price will always track

1:04:02

to its energy consumption that he

1:04:04

actually thinks we either have hit peak

1:04:07

energy consumption or will soon hit

1:04:09

peak energy consumption and then the

1:04:12

intensity

1:04:13

uh the capital intensity

1:04:16

of bitcoin mining will shift from energy

1:04:18

towards towards capital towards

1:04:19

technology rather

1:04:23

and that this is a pattern too that you

1:04:25

know he's not just hypothesizing this

1:04:27

this is well established already in

1:04:29

bitcoin's 13-year history

1:04:31

so i thought you know that's a very

1:04:34

intelligent way to look at it and once

1:04:35

again it's just uh pointing to bitcoin

1:04:38

as a microcosm of capitalism which is a

1:04:40

very useful model

1:04:42

for understanding its

1:04:44

its resistance to disruption um

1:04:49

this is

1:04:51

and there's a there's another dynamic

1:04:53

equilibrium here there's a dance right

1:04:55

between energy producers and

1:04:57

technologists

1:04:59

that make up this microcosm of

1:05:01

capitalism so this is very much like a

1:05:03

darwinian dynamic equilibrium

1:05:06

one in which where energy producers are

1:05:09

effectively using brute force

1:05:12

in the attempt to solve a bitcoin mining

1:05:14

puzzle

1:05:15

and produce new bitcoin

1:05:18

but they are competing against

1:05:19

technologists that are using technique

1:05:22

instead so they're trying to get more

1:05:23

efficiency

1:05:25

per unit of energy

1:05:28

in in the production of hashes so you

1:05:30

know hash is just a

1:05:32

a guess or a vote in this mining puzzle

1:05:35

and so

1:05:36

uh energy producers are just trying to

1:05:38

cast as many

1:05:39

votes as possible kind of brute force

1:05:41

approach but then the technologist

1:05:43

side of it is more dependent on

1:05:44

technique trying to get more hashes per

1:05:47

unit of energy

1:05:49

so this is a classic you know

1:05:52

magnitude of force versus efficiency of

1:05:54

force struggle uh and this has been

1:05:57

observed and written about in many

1:05:59

markets um

1:06:01

and you have investors

1:06:04

standing outside of this struggle

1:06:07

you know effectively allocating capital

1:06:09

to whichever one is more profitable at

1:06:11

that time

1:06:13

so as sailor describes this this is a

1:06:14

very delicate dance or balance of power

1:06:18

in that we're constantly

1:06:20

pushing the envelope on energy

1:06:23

production you know

1:06:25

older generation miners are rolling to

1:06:26

cheaper and cheaper energy sources

1:06:29

everyone's incentivized to monetize

1:06:31

cheap energy uh or or stranded energy

1:06:35

and then on the other side you have

1:06:37

technologists incentivized to

1:06:40

do competition to squeeze as much margin

1:06:43

or as many hashes at

1:06:46

from each unit of energy as possible

1:06:49

and this is again

1:06:51

looking at bitcoin as a microcosm of

1:06:53

capitalism

1:06:54

this is that dynamic darwinian

1:06:56

equilibrium that keeps the whole

1:06:58

ecosystem healthy

1:07:01

this over time is driving down energy

1:07:03

consumption per extra hash generated

1:07:06

and causes the improvement of

1:07:08

semiconductors or asics

1:07:11

the net outcome of this

1:07:14

is is that same progression we just

1:07:16

identified in capitalism where we have

1:07:17

this shift from

1:07:19

energy intensity to technology intensity

1:07:21

and through an accounting lens we could

1:07:22

say this is a move from

1:07:24

variable cost structure

1:07:27

right where most of the cost per

1:07:29

per bitcoin produced is this variable of

1:07:31

energy

1:07:32

to a more fixed cost structure where

1:07:35

you're actually

1:07:36

uh assembling these

1:07:38

uh pieces of mining infrastructure a6

1:07:41

cetera and then amortizing them over

1:07:44

and so this will over time shift the s

1:07:48

the contention actually

1:07:51

uh the market competition will shift

1:07:53

from being one primarily of energy

1:07:55

production

1:07:57

and we would expect it to shift more

1:07:58

towards technology fabrication as more

1:08:01

of the

1:08:03

mining competition's intensity shifts

1:08:05

away from energy and into technology

1:08:08

so this is really important too because

1:08:13

as the network then grows becomes larger

1:08:16

and continues to proliferate it becomes

1:08:18

more technology intensive

1:08:20

this is going to incentivize outside

1:08:23

capital allocators

1:08:25

to take it even more seriously right

1:08:27

again you with the with more fixed cost

1:08:29

of production you get a more predictable

1:08:31

and manageable

1:08:33

market or production process to

1:08:36

participate in so larger more

1:08:38

risk-averse polls of capital

1:08:40

will now start to look at bitcoin mining

1:08:43

as an investable

1:08:45

domain

1:08:47

another way to maybe think about this is

1:08:51

capital itself is in a it's a form of

1:08:54

frozen time or energy

1:08:57

as the network becomes

1:09:00

uh more constant within the plans of

1:09:03

capital allocators which is to say it's

1:09:05

larger it's more robust less likely to

1:09:07

fail right so it's kind of forcing

1:09:09

everyone to develop a bitcoin strategy

1:09:11

as we've talked about previously

1:09:15

you'll see

1:09:17

more um

1:09:20

investment related to the fabrication of

1:09:23

asics of the technology side of the

1:09:25

business come into play

1:09:28

and what this does now is it starts to

1:09:31

actually blow up that spatial and

1:09:34

temporal bubble we talked about in the

1:09:37

last two episodes

1:09:39

where sailor laid out his seven layers

1:09:40

of proof-of-work network security

1:09:44

such that if you want to come into the

1:09:47

bitcoin mining game and say mount a 51

1:09:50

attack you're now competing with all of

1:09:52

these other uh technology fabricators

1:09:54

that are incentivized

1:09:56

uh effectively to plug their production

1:09:58

networks into bitcoin mining and and

1:10:00

generate profits from them so

1:10:03

it becomes this

1:10:05

this is where those layers are developed

1:10:08

i guess um

1:10:10

and maybe you know

1:10:11

the other way to think about this is

1:10:16

the energy piece is very direct you're

1:10:18

just plugging in energy you're

1:10:21

running it through the mining

1:10:23

competition and you're trying to produce

1:10:26

bitcoin

1:10:27

but when you plug in the capital piece

1:10:30

you're talking about

1:10:31

connecting production

1:10:33

branches of production that are much

1:10:35

longer much more roundabout much more

1:10:38

complicated much more capital intensive

1:10:42

they are able to bring a lot more wealth

1:10:46

to bear into the network over time

1:10:48

versus just monetizing energy directly

1:10:50

so this is

1:10:51

i mean the visualization i have here is

1:10:53

we're moving from something that's

1:10:54

purely dynamic which is just the

1:10:56

monetization of energy directly to

1:10:59

something that's starting to lay down uh

1:11:01

static

1:11:02

layers as well in the form of of capital

1:11:05

networks

1:11:09

if we're again looking at it through the

1:11:11

lens of capitalism this is what we do

1:11:14

on a global

1:11:16

economy basis right we're trying to

1:11:19

amplify the returns on our energy our

1:11:21

labor energy by accumulating capital

1:11:24

we would expect the bitcoin network to

1:11:27

follow a similar path

1:11:29

and that it would initially be a lot of

1:11:31

raw power being monetized directly but

1:11:33

over time

1:11:35

the technology which is to say the

1:11:36

capital intensity the business should

1:11:38

increase

1:11:39

and you'll actually get greater returns

1:11:41

on that energy expenditure

1:11:43

such that energy usage peaks at some

1:11:45

point it does not track to the bitcoin

1:11:47

price

1:11:48

forever

1:11:49

um which would say sailor brilliantly

1:11:51

elaborated that it probably moves at the

1:11:53

log of the prize or something like that

1:11:57

you know great points there i guess the

1:11:59

overall moral of the story is that

1:12:02

all this open competition

1:12:05

in bitcoin the microcosm of capitalism

1:12:07

is what keeps all market actors honest

1:12:10

and adaptive right you're constantly

1:12:12

being pressure checked by competition

1:12:14

you have constant incentives to evolve

1:12:16

to be at the cutting edge

1:12:18

to cut costs to create value

1:12:23

you know it's this darwinism that keeps

1:12:25

ecosystems free

1:12:28

of failed or weak strategies right we

1:12:30

see this in nature if you

1:12:33

if there's an animal in the herd and

1:12:35

he's moving more slowly than the rest

1:12:36

then those are the ones the predators

1:12:38

pick off

1:12:39

and the net outcome of that is that the

1:12:41

herd is

1:12:43

best conditioned for resisting predation

1:12:46

so similarly in the darwinism of

1:12:48

capitalism uh weaker inferior strategies

1:12:51

or or non-cost-effective strategies get

1:12:54

picked off right they get destroyed they

1:12:56

get out-competed

1:13:00

in a nutshell

1:13:02

is why bitcoin via the proof of work

1:13:05

mining algorithm

1:13:06

uh wins right and it wins over

1:13:09

all all of these other consensus

1:13:11

mechanisms like you know proof of stake

1:13:13

is being theorized about a lot lately

1:13:16

it suffers from a distinct lack of this

1:13:19

darwinian element that makes proof of

1:13:23

so viable

1:13:25

so just great points there connecting

1:13:28

capitalism and

1:13:31

uh say that darwinism

1:13:31

got into a little bit of an exchange on

1:13:33

how bitcoin actually bootstraps its

1:13:36

market value

1:13:37

and that there's a point here

1:13:39

i've talked about before but i'll

1:13:41

reiterate as i think it's important

1:13:43

you know in the market for gold mining

1:13:46

the production cost

1:13:48

tends to converge to the market value

1:13:50

again there's a dynamic equilibrium

1:13:52

between the two

1:13:54

uh such that if gold is selling for two

1:13:56

thousand dollars an ounce in the

1:13:57

marketplace and i can go out and mine it

1:14:01

at a fully loaded cost of production say

1:14:03

nineteen hundred dollars per ounce

1:14:05

i am incentivized to increase production

1:14:08

right to

1:14:09

allocate more capital into the

1:14:10

production of gold

1:14:12

right up until

1:14:13

i'm producing at a cost of

1:14:16

1999.99 right so long as there is any

1:14:18

economic margin left in my production

1:14:21

process i'm incentivized to produce gold

1:14:25

i see this as we again we have these

1:14:28

larger

1:14:29

production structures these more

1:14:31

roundabout production processes

1:14:33

specifically related to semiconductors

1:14:35

and asics coming into the bitcoin

1:14:38

scene connecting into this bitcoin

1:14:40

microcosm of of capitalism

1:14:44

as more they're again bringing more

1:14:46

force to bear more wealth to bear into

1:14:49

the network

1:14:51

channeling more energy is maybe another

1:14:52

way to think about it

1:14:54

that we're they're actually increasing

1:14:57

the cost per bitcoin

1:15:00

uh and at each having all of that

1:15:03

collective energy and technology

1:15:05

intensity

1:15:06

is going into mining you know the daily

1:15:09

production gets cut in half so if we're

1:15:10

doing 900 bitcoin per day

1:15:12

and the current having epoch that goes

1:15:14

immediately to 450

1:15:16

but the energy and technology intensity

1:15:19

did not change that much and actually

1:15:21

changes less and less over time as

1:15:23

energy is a smaller component right

1:15:25

energy can be turned off quickly but

1:15:28

these large

1:15:29

production processes roundabout

1:15:31

production processes processes of

1:15:33

capital cannot be so easily turned off

1:15:35

right they're much more permanent than

1:15:37

just the energy side of the business

1:15:41

this means

1:15:43

in my mind the way i understand this

1:15:44

that miners are effectively incentivized

1:15:47

to hold

1:15:48

bitcoin to not sell bitcoin

1:15:51

in anticipation of each having because

1:15:53

at each having

1:15:54

the the bitcoin side of their uh p l the

1:15:58

bitcoin revenue is actually getting cut

1:16:00

in half

1:16:02

you're incentivized to hold bitcoin

1:16:05

and not sell the cover production cost

1:16:07

in anticipation of each having

1:16:10

this is

1:16:11

and in the competition between miners

1:16:13

you want to hold as long as possible so

1:16:15

the stronger balance sheets will tend to

1:16:17

prevail or more prudently managed

1:16:19

balance sheets

1:16:20

and this engages this like a game

1:16:23

theoretic

1:16:24

uh process between minors that's

1:16:27

somewhat of a self-fulfilling prophecy

1:16:28

and i've talked about this

1:16:30

in some of my writing previously where

1:16:33

there's this virtuous cycle

1:16:35

of bitcoin

1:16:37

that no one has figured out how to break

1:16:39

you know i've called this a an

1:16:40

unstoppable vortex of incentives

1:16:43

and it's one in which

1:16:45

uh basically

1:16:48

bitcoin

1:16:52

mining

1:16:52

is the security budget for bitcoin so as

1:16:57

energy and technology is allocated into

1:16:59

the network bitcoin becomes more secure

1:17:01

right

1:17:02

this makes its network more robust makes

1:17:04

bitcoin a better store of value as

1:17:07

bitcoin becomes a better store of value

1:17:09

more people want to buy it as money buy

1:17:12

it and hold it as a sore value this

1:17:14

causes its price to increase

1:17:16

a price increase in bitcoin makes mining

1:17:19

more profitable

1:17:20

as mining becomes more profitable more

1:17:23

energy and technology comes under the

1:17:25

mining network

1:17:27

and that makes bitcoin more secure again

1:17:29

and so on and so forth so there's this

1:17:30

virtuous cycle

1:17:32

that is bitcoin

1:17:35

you know centered on this

1:17:37

uh idea of bitcoin as capitalism really

1:17:39

it's like an unstoppable

1:17:42

um that really just forces rational

1:17:45

economic actors to play

1:17:49

that was a real interesting discussion

1:17:51

there um

1:17:53

but see they did make some good

1:17:54

counterpoints that you can't necessarily

1:17:57

the technology side of the inputs right

1:18:00

because that that's subject to

1:18:02

innovation but we would still expect

1:18:07

whatever the best semiconductor or asic

1:18:09

technology available is

1:18:11

like that would be brought to bear in

1:18:12

this game because again it's

1:18:15

the difficulty adjustment constantly

1:18:17

makes it more or less difficult based on

1:18:20

on innovation so it makes

1:18:22

bitcoin adaptive to innovation itself um

1:18:26

which is you know

1:18:27

hard to get your head around it's like

1:18:29

bitcoin is a living money in a lot of

1:18:33

speaking of living money we went into a

1:18:35

discussion about how bitcoin would uh

1:18:37

scale through layers this is something

1:18:41

nature does as well nature evolves in

1:18:42

layers

1:18:45

so looking at layer 2 itself it's

1:18:46

basically

1:18:48

making trade-offs

1:18:51

where you're giving up some trust

1:18:52

minimization of bitcoin at the base

1:18:54

layer

1:18:55

to pick up some additional functionality

1:18:57

at a higher layer there too

1:18:59

and this is very similar and intuitive

1:19:02

a trusted third party right

1:19:05

where

1:19:06

so bitcoin itself at the base layer what

1:19:08

makes it so expensive and slow

1:19:11

is that every node and every miner is

1:19:14

checking every other node and miners

1:19:17

work right it's

1:19:19

it's distributed consensus it's

1:19:21

purposefully

1:19:22

slow and expensive

1:19:24

so that you don't need to trust any

1:19:26

single actor right it's optimizing for

1:19:28

decentralization

1:19:31

so clearly there's a lot more energy

1:19:33

necessary to update this global set of

1:19:35

ledgers versus just trying to update one

1:19:37

ledger which is effectively that's the

1:19:39

opposite end of the spectrum that's what

1:19:41

a trusted third party would be right

1:19:42

that's what the fed is that's what your

1:19:45

bank is

1:19:46

um you're just trusting one group one

1:19:49

political

1:19:51

aggregation of willpower

1:19:52

versus the uh

1:19:54

distributed self-interest of all actors

1:19:58

so but

1:20:00

because of that there's a big

1:20:02

gain in efficiency right you can get

1:20:03

many more transactions per second on

1:20:05

something like paypal or venmo than you

1:20:07

can bitcoin base layer

1:20:09

so what is bitcoin going to do bitcoin

1:20:12

to scale in terms of payments per second

1:20:14

it has to scale through layers you

1:20:16

cannot you cannot get rid of this

1:20:18

trade-off at the base layer we need

1:20:21

21 million and we need decentralization

1:20:24

those are the

1:20:25

you know or say fixed supply and

1:20:26

decentralization these are the most

1:20:28

important properties of a non-state

1:20:30

money

1:20:31

and that's what the bitcoin base layer

1:20:32

optimizes for

1:20:33

but to get it um

1:20:36

circulating

1:20:38

as a more effective medium of exchange

1:20:40

bitcoin has to scale at higher layers

1:20:42

and um you know we see this already with

1:20:45

with third parties you know there's

1:20:46

groups like nidig that are basically

1:20:49

acting as a bitcoin bank

1:20:51

so you can they're offering all the

1:20:54

traditional financial services

1:20:56

you're accustomed to using in the legacy

1:20:58

financial system but on a bitcoin

1:21:00

standard instead

1:21:01

so that's one way to approach it right

1:21:03

you can have layer 2

1:21:05

organizations

1:21:07

you can also have

1:21:08

layer 2 applications which we went into

1:21:11

the lightning network in a little bit

1:21:13

but uh you know the point here is that

1:21:18

we have to optimize for decentralization

1:21:20

at the base layer as we've enumerated

1:21:22

plenty

1:21:24

in this series so far

1:21:27

precisely because that keeps the money

1:21:30

immune to opinion

1:21:32

politics counterparty risk right it's a

1:21:35

it's a neutral

1:21:37

set of rules

1:21:39

that no one can change and that's the

1:21:40

most important property of bitcoin at

1:21:42

the base layer

1:21:46

we we can kind of look at it like this

1:21:49

money itself and this is more general

1:21:50

than just bitcoin

1:21:53

is this base layer protocol it is this

1:21:55

set of rules

1:21:59

ideally no one can change this is kind

1:22:01

of what gold was historically in the

1:22:02

analog age right it was favored as money

1:22:05

because no one could mess with the

1:22:06

supply

1:22:08

no one could change the chemical

1:22:09

properties of gold etc etc

1:22:12

but everything

1:22:14

so we could say that money is kind of

1:22:16

like the base layer protocol for human

1:22:18

action

1:22:20

everything on top of that

1:22:22

is really just an application

1:22:26

you know

1:22:27

and this maybe gets into

1:22:29

we talk about the functions of money

1:22:31

right the store value

1:22:33

medium of exchange in a unit of account

1:22:35

this is to say that that base layer

1:22:37

really provides us

1:22:39

things that are very important to human

1:22:41

being

1:22:42

which is a means of establishing value

1:22:45

right what

1:22:46

what do other people find valuable

1:22:49

a means for actually transacting with

1:22:51

others to discover what is valuable and

1:22:53

an accounting system to communicate the

1:22:55

whole thing

1:22:59

and maybe this is a bit of an over

1:23:01

generalization this is a way i'm

1:23:02

thinking about it lately and i think it

1:23:04

ties in nicely

1:23:06

is that if we look at it this way that

1:23:07

money is the base layer for human action

1:23:10

and then all the institutions and

1:23:11

businesses and organizations we build on

1:23:13

top of it are effectively applications

1:23:17

we could say that

1:23:19

this becomes the common thread between

1:23:21

the two that

1:23:23

you know individuals

1:23:26

organisms organizations they're all just

1:23:29

wealth strategies effectively

1:23:35

and when i say wealth i mean

1:23:35

specifically a lot of people think that

1:23:37

oh wealth is like

1:23:39

you know your riches or your stuff but

1:23:40

even in an

1:23:41

organic sense you could just consider

1:23:43

wealth as being like time saved through

1:23:46

through some

1:23:47

organic specialization or innovation

1:23:52

and at a very you know deeply biological

1:23:55

level that's how evolution occurs

1:23:57

actually is there's

1:23:59

some need the environment is uh

1:24:02

demanding

1:24:03

some need of the organism right whether

1:24:05

it's an eye to sea

1:24:07

uh that lets you gather food more

1:24:09

quickly or find mates more quickly

1:24:13

the evolution itself is

1:24:15

the build-up of these economic

1:24:17

specializations over time so it's

1:24:18

increasing

1:24:20

the organism's productivity

1:24:22

and then at a collective level you know

1:24:24

organisms come together to do the same

1:24:25

thing you know for human beings it's

1:24:27

trade and innovation the reason we

1:24:31

coalesce as a civilization is because

1:24:34

we are more productive acting in concert

1:24:36

than we are in isolation if that were

1:24:38

not true then we would not be

1:24:41

grouping together like this um

1:24:45

you'd say that at biological level that

1:24:46

evolution is occurring through

1:24:48

specialization

1:24:49

at the socioeconomic level

1:24:51

innovation occurs through specialization

1:24:53

as well

1:24:54

clearly that's how

1:24:56

uh you know a tool that's more fit to

1:24:59

its job just tends to out compete in the

1:25:00

marketplace

1:25:03

herein lies that connection where

1:25:07

these these are very similar dynamics

1:25:09

right we have evolution

1:25:11

that's kind of this organic process of

1:25:13

innovation you know the body or

1:25:16

learning through interaction with its

1:25:18

environment to become more fit over time

1:25:20

and then we have innovation which is

1:25:22

more like an inorganic process of

1:25:24

evolution so you know in the case of

1:25:27

humans we're actually

1:25:29

figuring out how to be more fit to our

1:25:31

environment through material engagement

1:25:33

right through tools

1:25:35

things like that

1:25:38

and so yeah i think

1:25:39

that is just

1:25:42

a big world view shift right there

1:25:45

um especially for people

1:25:48

unfamiliar with economics and monetary

1:25:50

history

1:25:52

i think the prevailing belief is that

1:25:54

government is just the originator of

1:25:56

money somehow you know government's like

1:25:58

the base layer and then they issue money

1:26:00

and there's a market on top of that

1:26:02

but when you study

1:26:04

socioeconomic history and you know

1:26:06

evolutionary biology how did we get to

1:26:08

this point it's actually the precise

1:26:10

opposite

1:26:11

and so we are engaged in a market

1:26:14

process in nature nature is a market

1:26:16

process we keep talking about darwinism

1:26:17

and capitalism i mean they're very

1:26:20

similar

1:26:24

money is really beneath government right

1:26:27

government is just

1:26:29

one business model it's a business model

1:26:31

designed

1:26:33

you know to monopolize violence and

1:26:35

enforce property rights ostensibly

1:26:38

but it itself is just a business it is

1:26:41

just another wealth acquisition strategy

1:26:44

similar to every other organization and

1:26:46

organism in the world

1:26:51

this maybe points to how big of a deal

1:26:53

bitcoin is right it's something that's

1:26:57

disrupting

1:26:59

money which is the base layer operating

1:27:01

system for a human being

1:27:04

in the most fundamental way possible so

1:27:07

in my mind this explains why so few

1:27:09

people understand the significance of it

1:27:13

and it also points to

1:27:15

you know those of us that study it

1:27:16

closely maybe we're not seeing larger

1:27:19

implications of what this might be

1:27:23

you know i guess the closest analogy

1:27:26

here is that i think the transformation

1:27:29

from the agricultural age in the into

1:27:31

the industrial age

1:27:33

will be equally significant as the

1:27:36

transition from the industrial agent to

1:27:37

the digital age so if you could imagine

1:27:40

being a farmer

1:27:41

in the agricultural age and trying to

1:27:44

envision what where we are today right

1:27:47

where the industrial age has brought us

1:27:50

you know

1:27:51

flying and

1:27:52

telecommunications and all these things

1:27:54

it would just sound like magic right and

1:27:56

this gets us all the way back

1:27:58

to the beginning of the sailor series

1:28:00

where he quoted um

1:28:02

i forget the author's name but he says

1:28:04

any sufficiently advanced technology is

1:28:07

indistinguishable from magic so

1:28:11

i think

1:28:12

this is just a great way to look at uh

1:28:15

bitcoin bitcoin mining again

1:28:19

you know it comes down to

1:28:22

this base protocol and the functions

1:28:24

that it that it serves that money lets

1:28:27

store value

1:28:30

which is to say

1:28:32

we can hold something

1:28:34

that other market actors find relevant

1:28:36

right that other people find valuable

1:28:38

lets us accomplish trade which gets us

1:28:40

to the second function of money which is

1:28:42

free exchange

1:28:44

this is letting us

1:28:46

become more energy efficient through

1:28:48

trade and it facilitates innovation

1:28:50

which further increases our economic

1:28:53

efficiency

1:28:54

and then finally money holds us to

1:28:56

account right which one of these

1:28:58

applications

1:28:59

you know organizations or

1:29:01

any other application we build on top of

1:29:03

the base layer of money which one is

1:29:04

working which one is not

1:29:06

so that we can facilitate this process

1:29:08

of creative destruction that

1:29:11

propels capitalism and darwinism forward

1:29:15

so i hope you enjoyed that one that was

1:29:17

episode 16 of the sailor series and i

1:29:20

will see you guys back here again soon

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