Bitcoin Economics and Evolution | The Saylor Series | Episode 16 (WiM062)
WiM Media · 2021-10-19 · 1h 29m · View on YouTube →
[Music]
we we just finished discussing the
proof-of-work mining network and the
seven layers of security energy
technology
uh politics finance the network itself
the spatial security the temporal
security
um
so what you have is you have bitcoin as
a decentralized crypto asset network and
the thing that pops up a lot is
is the question of
what does energy usage look like over
time and is energy usage is going to
keep increasing as the price of bitcoin
increases
and i've seen commentary on this i think
a lot of people get it wrong
they seem to think
that
as the price of bitcoin increases the
energy usage will increase linearly
and uh if there's a 100x
increase in bitcoin price there's a 100x
increase
in energy usage and i think it's
just worthwhile to make the observation
that over the past 10 years
the
mining network has gone from being
energy intensive to being technology
intensive
another way to say it is
is in every single industry you go from
being labor intensive to capital
when we started with a million people
sowing or farming
farming it was a labor intensive
activity
as the capital equipment gets better you
know first you have
you know horses and carts and ox carts
and then you have tractors then you have
mega tractors then you have factories
um
all of a sudden the amount of labor
matters a lot less
and the amount of capital equipment
matters a lot more
there's a time when 90 percent of the
country was farmers and now just one or
two percent of the people in the country
produce all the food
is because it's become technology
intensive
um the bitcoin network is similar in
that except
substitute for labor energy
and substitute for capital technology
and we go back 10 years
it probably took a hundred times as much
energy to develop to generate an exah
as it is right now
uh the an s19 takes 30 megawatts per
extra hash but an s9 takes 150 megawatts
an extra hash see the 5x improvement
energy efficiency over one generation of
equipment
we're like on the seventh generation of
mining equipment
if you go
back
two or three generations then you
you get that 100x improve increase in
energy intensity
if you look at where we are today and
you go forward 10 years
it's it's reasonable to expect that you
will get
improvements in efficiency from three
dynamics
you've got halvings in the protocol and
we have one every four years so that
means that over the course of a decade
you have a 5x increase in efficiency
from the havings
then if you have a 4x increase
in
energy efficiency and you get it twice
or a 5x and a 4x you get a 20x increase
over two more generations of hardware
and now you've got a 20x times a 5x or
about 100x
increase in efficiency
so
bitcoin price could go up by a hundred
and the network efficiency would go up
by a hundred
and the energy consumption could be flat
and uh and that's an important thing to
keep in mind
because
people sometimes think well energy is
used to secure the network
no it's crypto energy it's encrypted
energy that's used to secure the network
and in order to get it from raw energy
to crypto energy you have to run it
through
a shaw 256 miner that's properly
engineered in a heat sink
and so as the heat engineering improves
the miners get more efficient as the
semiconductor technology for asics
improves the miners get more efficient
and what you have in that dynamic
is uh
never-ending struggle
between brute force and technique
and kind of reminds you of something
like nature
and and competition
like
there's two ways to do things right you
either do
you know use raw labor or you use
technology
and it's important to have the dynamic
or that that yin and yang because
when the technologies technologists get
lazy
and they stop improving
then the raw material or the brute force
overwhelms and then and the control the
network shifts back to the energy
holders
but
to the extent that the technologists
upgrade their engineering facilities
their heat technology their chip
technology
then
the energy becomes less important
the technology becomes more important
and the combination of both of these
things
require capital
free-flowing capital
and
in a free market the capital is
continually seeking
the best use
should i invest money in creating the
next generation of shaw 256 miners
should i invest money in engineering a
more efficient bitcoin mine with
immersion cooling
should i invest money in
in commercializing more energy or
plugging in more energy and just
manufacturing
the same design over and over again
you know and
so what you have is this nice delicate
dance or balance of power
but a model you can think of is
when we first started bitcoin mining it
was all energy intensive we were using
off-the-shelf computer equipment
and you were throwing raw power and raw
commodity materials added
it's rotated through a set of
generations of of hashing equipment so
now
you need energy but but the limiting
factor is not really the energy the
limiting factor on generating hashes is
the mining rigs and maybe you could say
the limiting factors on doing this well
is the mining rigs properly installed in
a mining center with the right cooling
technology
and if you look forward another another
decade
you'll see it's going to be much more
technical intensive and
you could have all the energy in the
world
but you're not going to be able to
generate crypto hashes
the um
the break-even point of an s19 is like
40 cents a kilowatt hour you could pay
40 cents a kilowatt hour for electricity
and make money the break-even point for
an s9 is eight or nine cents kilowatt
hour
if you have 20 cent power you can't make
money you got to turn it off
the break-even point for the generation
of equipment before that it's like two
cents a kilowatt hour
you can't pay three you got to turn it
off and the generation before that
you're down to half a penny a kilowatt
hour
so if you're looking to run antiquated
equipment to generate hashes you have to
be stealing the power
if you have free energy and it's
literally stolen or it's given away
you can run eight-year-old or
five-year-old equipment
but if you're paying your way
you have to run modern equipment
so this is a dynamic model
but it's important because it's a
dynamic evolution of the sophistication
of the bitcoin
security network that has darwinian
overtones
because the bitcoin miner that just buys
a bunch of equipment five years ago and
stops upgrading
becomes obsolete
you know you won't last 10 years without
equipment i mean your break-even point
becomes uh a tenth of a penny
after once you're three or four
generations behind
so this is like nature healing itself
it's a very natural process
you you if you're out of touch and
you're a thousand miles away the free
market
somewhere else is going to keep moving
the state of the art forward
and should you isolate yourself you will
you will find that you can't generate
enough hash power to participate
in the revenues and the transaction fees
and it's the it's the network's way of
simply squeezing you
off the network
now what that means
is bitcoin miners are organic creatures
with a negative feedback loop i mean in
essence a market mechanism
the difficulty adjustment is not just
tactically every two weeks in the
protocol
the difficulty adjustment is in the
market
because if you don't upgrade your
hardware every four years you become
uncompetitive
and you can't upgrade your hardware
every four years
unless you were responsible custodian of
your capital if you spent all your money
if you didn't save any money
if you're not trustworthy if you don't
have credit
you can't buy any equipment and so so to
stay competitive on the bitcoin network
you have to be credit worthy you have to
be competent and you have to be um
you have to be credible someone that has
the technology
has to be willing to sell to you
and so i i would say that the dynamic
nature of the network is
you have this competition
between minor operations and the
technology providers
and the energy sources
and the political jurisdictions
and you have to be upgrading
and you and you probably need to be
improving your efficiency
by a factor of of one and a half or two
every year you know you're subject to
moore's law
and this uh competitive darwinian
pressure and
the result of that
is
energy energy consumption is going to
fall
per extra hash
will go from 150 megawatts an extra hash
to 30 megawatts an extra hash
to five megawatts in extra hash to one
megawatt in exahash
to half a megawatt you know and on down
we're just going to move move down this
efficiency curve
you can
you could imagine if i gave you uh you
know this super computer
you know the size of a sugar cube
you know it's just look look at the
amount of power on modern semiconductors
right think about what's in the latest
iphone chip
we just keep compressing computing power
and we find a way
and human ingenuity is is like that they
will keep finding a way
to
to create more hash power
using better technique
and
so that suggests that energy consumption
will probably increase non-linearly like
with the log of the price
if the price it goes up by a factor of
10
energy consumption might go up by a
factor of two or two and a half or three
at some point
you start to think you will roll over
you'll peak we might have already done
it
you peak energy consumption and then you
taper off or it holds constant as the
hash rate increases
and instead of putting instead of a
bitcoin miner spending half of their
budget on energy
you roll over to spending half of your
budget on capital right you're buying
capital and amortizing it
and pretty soon your variable cost on
energy is five percent and forty percent
is capital equipment
and what you've got
is not an energy war
to see who controls the network you've
got a technology war
to see who controls the network
and
why is that good
well because um energy is a raw material
in the universe
but
seventh generation shaw 256 miners are
specialty equipment
right everybody on earth can find some
energy and throw it at the problem but
but you know
throwing the 11th generation of shaw 256
mining equipment at the problem is
something that probably no one's going
to be able to do unless they spent a
decade or two decades engineering that
equipment and thinking about it
so you have a specialization in the same
way that john deere
tractors are specialized after 100 years
and
you know if you if you went back to a
farmer in 1850 and you describe what a
farmer in
2020 can do
right it's like night and day right
that's what's going on with the network
so
i think it's it's self-healing uh
self-sealing self-correcting and uh
the combination of the darwinian
and and adam smith capitalist
competition
is critical advantage for for bitcoin
versus say a proof-of-stake network
right
because in proof-of-stake network you
pretty much turn off energy competition
you turn off
semiconductor competition and innovation
engineering and heat engineering
innovation
you turn off capital financial
competition yeah you turn off the
political element
and that means that i can get fat dumb
and happy just right you know i can just
post
a billion worth of my tokens
and go to sleep for a decade right
and uh and no one's trying to make the
network better
so it's not being tested there's no
stressing of it
right and ultimately
the problem with that is you're going to
suffer in integrity and durability right
so we're again at this
point where it's the bitcoin mining
network itself
is a free market in and unto itself
and it reflects many of these properties
of capitalism so there's this
you know this yin and yang i guess of
efficiency and magnitude sort of going
back and forth and to your point that's
reflected in many markets historically
where we shift from labor intensity
to capital intensity and this basically
means that the capital
as it becomes more plentiful and
effective at amplifying labor you need
less labor to accomplish the same
results right this is a natural
capitalistic progression
um does this all let me ask you this so
the the
the useful life of a minor i'm not sure
what that is maybe it varies generally
it was four to five years four to five
years so we have the older generations
rolling to cheaper energy to remain in
the marketplace
newer generation steel energy right if i
if i can boot leg energy then i can rock
old generation miners profitable because
my variable cost is zero right and then
so newer generations
would then be allocated to more
expensive energy resources initially
does this then are we is this an aspect
of the
gradually increasing
fully amortized cost to produce each
bitcoin
or you actually because there's more
capex i mean maybe the capex opex mix is
changing but the overall cost to produce
each bitcoin is rising
which is putting upward pressure on its
price in the marketplace is that another
way to look at this
well you know that's not clear to me
um you know what's the price of energy
is it going up or going down um
you know maybe the price of energy is
going up and then it's going down yes
what's the price of what's the price of
semiconductors is it going up or is it
going down right well sometimes it's
going up
it's going up if there's a monopoly on
the semiconductor chips
and then it's going down when someone
else enters the market and you know
you're
in our intel chip a 386 chip is pretty
cheap now right yeah so chip so chip
prices are coming down but the next
generation is going up and but again
it's a competitive thing
there's what's the price of
semiconductors well if there's only one
provider and as a monopoly then you
could say well the price of your
semiconductors is going to go up every
generation forever and and the cost of
bitcoin money is going to go up but
there isn't one semiconductor company
there's multiple if there is one
we're back to uh jeff bezos statement
you know your margin is my opportunity
yeah
bitcoin is an open market for mining so
that so anybody can engineer a shaw 256
chip
anybody you know there's there's no one
type of bitcoin miner there are people
slapping these things in the back of
trucks and driving them around and
plugging them into bootleg power lines
right it's not very efficient
there are people that slap 500 bitcoin
miners into a container
and they just drop it on top of a pad
does it work sure it does um
is it properly heat engineered no does
it get hot very what's the consequences
of running hard
you have to turn off the mining
equipment some of the time so you lose
efficiency and they burn out and they're
useful life is not four years it's three
years
that's two years right so
so there's a competition here
and
just like there's competition for energy
how will energy go up forever no i mean
energy could go to zero right if i if i
if i invent coal fusion
yeah
you know will semiconductors go up
forever
no they'll go up until
you know at some point bit main is
you know they raised their prices
and then everybody started talking to
intel like you go to another
semiconductor company and you say well
look bitmains you know triple their
prices and now you can make this much
and now you draw somebody else into the
space
yes so so i think that there's going to
be there's a dynamic equilibrium between
the engineering and the semiconductor
and the um
and the energy
and the best capitalized companies they
can buy the new equipment you know like
the publicly traded north american
companies they will go and buy all the
new shiny equipment
and uh and poorly capitalized companies
will run the old equipment
and then and then you will roll forward
like that
so let me let me okay but
it's not clear to me how much it will
cost to create a bitcoin yes
right because i mean that's a function
of
well i mean if we look maybe the
profitability of bitcoin is a function
of the rate at which we add hash power
versus the rate at which we add bitcoin
holders
if we increase the number of bitcoin
holders by a factor of 10
and we increase the hash power by a
factor of two
[Music]
then uh the profitability and the
revenue per extra hash is going to go up
by a factor of five right yeah
and if we increase the x ash by a factor
of 10 and hold us by a factor of two
the profitability is going to
deteriorate
and uh so the profitability of the
bitcoin mining is going to have an
impact on the rate of development of
bitcoin mining semiconductor that's
right
so here's what i was saying is that
every so the total opex and capex going
into the bitcoin network out of having
you know it goes that total allocation
of expense goes
from producing call it 900 bitcoin per
day to 400. the revenue gets cut about
in half yeah so
the production cost per bitcoin has
effectively doubled
and then my thinking was that this
higher cost to produce each bitcoin is
actually incentivizing miners to hold
right they don't want to sell below cost
of production
so that's what's bootstrapping bitcoin's
price
uh upward
yeah like i mean i can see once every
four years
the the energy cost doubles
but we don't but but if if once every
four years i upgrade the equipment and
it's five times faster
right right now the question is how much
did you pay for the equipment right yes
okay
right and the answer is if you paid a
lot for the equipment and you know
amortize the cost of the equipment and
the cost of the bitcoin and you've got
an answer but that's a price that a
vendor charges you which could be triple
or half
depending upon the competition in a very
competitive market well let's say it a
different way like if you're buying
intel grade 386 46 chips and slapping
them into your home appliance what is
the price of the intelligence that you
put inside your toaster
as a percentage of the cost of the
toaster
it's pretty cheap right i mean like at
some point the cost of intelligence
starts to drop because it's a commodity
market amd drove down the prices and so
everybody can put intelligence into
their appliance
because the
competition if there was no competition
it might go the opposite way
so
i
i think that um the the protocol
guarantees us
through havings that were we're going to
have to get five times as
efficient every decade
but
the other dynamics
like the rate of technology advance go
even faster
and they're they're just as much
and uh
i i do agree with you on this one idea
we're in a gold rush right now or a
bitcoin rush call it right between now
and like 2035
um and 2035 will have mined 99 of the
bitcoin right so you've got 14 years
and during the 14 years the block
rewards are pretty high relatively
speaking
and
and so it's very lucrative to be in the
business
but
the business is going to become
less profitable
likely
at the very least we know it's going to
rotate into a transaction fee business
so instead of 90 block reward 10
transaction fee
you could expect
90 transaction fee 10 block reward
and the transaction fees are also going
to scale more likely with the log of the
price not linear to the price
if i want to move a million dollars i
might pay you 10 bucks and if i want to
move 10 million dollars i would pay 12
but i'm not going to pay a hundred
dollars i'm just going to over bid
the million dollar buyer and what i want
to if i want to move 50 million dollars
i'll bid 14
yeah so
the transaction fees will increase with
the with the number of you know
transactions on the base layer
and that'll be a dynamic but the block
rewards go away
and so if you're a bitcoin miner
it's a very uh lucrative high growth
business right now
but it will move toward an efficient
transaction security network later
and you would do well
to buy bitcoin right that's why it makes
sense to hodl bitcoin if you're a
bitcoin miner
because it's your hedge
if bitcoin it's a hedge against two
things right it's it's a hedge against
the inevitable protocol which is the
protocol says bitcoin money is going to
get
90 less lucrative over the course of
right
cut in half once cut in half twice
over the course of 12 years
you get cut in half three times
so it's a it's a hedge against that
but it's that's a long term it's also a
hedge against the near-term
hash rate explosion
if you're mining bitcoin right now and
if somebody comes out of the blue and
they bring a lot of hash rate on the
network faster than you expected
then your market share gets cut
in that situation
bitcoin may win if everybody believes
bitcoin's gonna win and there's a flood
of people to enter the mining business
you want to own bitcoin
mining is going to get competitive
bitcoin is going to get more valuable
so
you definitely don't want to be in a
situation where
where you mine bitcoin you sell all your
bitcoin for cash
and then you're you know in that case
you're attempting to run a cash business
in 16 years
when the revenue has been cut in half
four times
right
right and and
presumably if you cut 100 to 50
to 25 to 12 to six
when you're generating six percent of
the revenue and everybody else has had
12 years or 16 years to get in the game
it's going to be more of a commodity
business right now that's not to say
that a bitcoin miner can't uh can't
compete and evolve it may be a great
business then too it may it may be that
bitcoin miners have all be running
lightning nodes
or running layer two platforms of other
sorts
you know it might be that as a bitcoin
miner you have a huge bitcoin treasury
and then you can generate yield on it
it might be that there are other
applications we'll talk about some it's
very logical for bitcoin miners maybe to
get into some of these other application
areas that will pop up
in time
and there are technology possibilities
here
so
so um
i i would say the logical thing to do in
business is you
you don't worry about what happens 16 to
20 years out if you can make a ton of
money now
i mean you might very well
make enough money now to have 10 20 30
100 billion dollars of capital then at
which point
you can go buy something else to get you
in the business
and my other my other point i guess here
is yes it's true bitcoin miners should
keep bitcoin
but it's also true that non-bitcoin
miners should keep bitcoin like the like
the
if you believe in bitcoin
then the logical
the the logic follows that no matter
what business you are in if you have
operating income you should invest in
bitcoin right
and if you are able to generate
financing if you can raise debt or
equity then you should also raise debt
and invest that in bitcoin so
that would be the case for
for other companies like microstrategy
looks at it that way we're not even a
bitcoin miner
but that's you know so that's my thought
on the bitcoin mining network and the
dynamic model over time
i think that some people intentionally
misunderstand this
like people that like proof of stakers
they they intentionally misunderstand it
because if they misunderstand it then
they can assume that energy consumption
is linear and then they can you know
play the esg card and pretend that
they're you know you do their virtue
signaling and say they're doing
something good for the environment
because they're not using energy
but the truth is they're not using
energy nor are they using technology
they're not using hardware technology
engineering technology or energy nor are
they submitting their network to
competition
and they're not using external capital
political or financial what they're
doing is they're creating
a protocol
a virtual protocol
in order to in order to create security
and even there if you're going to rely
upon a virtual protocol
to create security you'd be better off
to stake the protocol with an asset
that is outside of the network
that is external to the network so for
example the lightning network
makes a lot more sense because it's
staked with bitcoin
than if it was staked with lightning
coin
right
yeah and it's paying again paying the
revenues to for services rendered which
is actually the routing transactions
versus just how much bitcoin you hold
it's not not how it works
so i think this is a key point here is
that the proof of work energy
expenditure
is actually transforming what would just
be kind of video game asset into a
macroeconomic asset there's a real
it's creating a vortex in the real world
yes yeah yeah
yeah it's it's your it's your connection
to
thermodynamic reality and
socio-political reality exactly you
can't be in denial of those two yes
what people think of you matters if the
person is the police officer on the beat
or
runs the country what they think of you
matters yes
and
what nature thinks of you matters if you
decide to step off a cliff by looking
the wrong way
nature's opinion matters right whether
or not you respect nature or not
and so it's very important that if
you're building something
that you want to last for a thousand
years
you respect politics
yeah and you respect thermodynamics and
you respect physics yes and proof of
work
is this uh it's very creative
invention to create to continually
connect
and synchronize
right the bitcoin network
with
political physical reality
yeah it's holding never never-ending
never-ending evolution every four years
every two years
a new minor a new chip a new place a new
thing
throw away the old
the you know you have to the old
generation has to die
so the new generation can form
so that the creature can evolve right
otherwise the creature stagnates
and all and becomes progressively more
fragile
right
until it's no longer capable of
competing in the real world
and that that energetic anchor to this
to these realities you know energetic
which begets socio-political reality
this is what's keeping all network
participants honest and accountable
right there's this
synchronization and rule set imposed
upon them every 10 minutes you can't
avoid it's like gravity you know you
just cannot ignore it
yeah it's quite a wonderful thing it's a
it's a crypto universe yeah
satoshi played god
created you know either call it creating
your own universe and setting the
apprentice in motion
by defining the space time constant
or the other metaphor is you release the
creature into cyberspace
you set the genetic dna
of the creature you controlled how it
will procreate
and once you release the thing
then you know it spreads as some kind of
swarm
life form
you know continually evolving
so
so i think
with with that i think we conclude that
the bitcoin mining network and the
bitcoin network in general is quite a
wonderful thing
now the next question is
how does it scale how does that if we go
beyond the network
the primary
the primary purpose of the bitcoin
mining network is to provide security
and enforce
you know protocol integrity and
durability
of the system
and it does that very well but so how do
we actually scale out to provide
hundreds of billions of transactions a
day to billions of people on the planet
at the speed of light
you know using the latest computer
technology
and
that's i think where a lot of people
fall down they don't
you know they they just want to look at
the base chain and say well it moves
seven transactions a second and so you
can't scale but but
they lack the imagination
to understand the consequences of the
layering
so the bitcoin monetary network it
scales
based upon
platforms at the layer 2 level and then
applications above that level and you
could call them layer three applications
or you could call and you can also have
applications embedded in applications on
top of applications
so you could have layers four five six
and seven and eventually you've got and
you could have interplay between the
applications
but um
for the purposes of our discussion let's
just call them layer 2 platforms and
layer 3 applications in order to keep
from getting too confusing in our
semantics
so what i want what's the most important
one well lightning is a very interesting
and maybe the most important
layer two platform
and the idea behind lightning is
i want something to be exponentially
faster and exponentially cheaper and in
return
i'm willing to secure
exponentially less
um
money
so
if i have only a hundred dollars at risk
then there's no reason why i couldn't do
10 million transactions on that channel
and uh and that totally makes sense
because as you scale out if you look at
the transactions that eight billion
people need to make on this planet every
single day
you know
the majority of the transactions are
actually
a value less than one dollar
in fact there are plenty of transactions
that could be valued in pennies
and then the big transactions might be
might be ten a hundred dollars or a
thousand dollars and
if you i probably if you were to look at
the transaction stream on the visa
network
or the mastercard network
right i mean the average check is like
28 bucks or something but there's
billions and billions and billions of
them they go on
so
that you don't really need the final
settlement security of bitcoin
because that's
the highest level security in the world
and you're getting that to move a
billion dollars
know you probably only need to to move a
billion dollars around
you know occasionally it's like if i
moved
seven nuclear-powered aircraft carriers
per second
anywhere in the universe i could
probably win whatever war i wanted to
win
right
if that's my if that's what i'm using my
teleportation power for so bitcoin is
good for teleporting large chunks of
value but for
for all of the routine work you want
something smaller and so the logical
thing to do is
the way lightning gets at it is you're
putting liquidity in a channel you're
putting value in a channel and the
channel is at risk but the overall
blockchain is and
and of course the beauty is you get to
keep your keys
and keep custody of that so that's a
very fascinating thing
um
you can build
the universe on lightning so and so
presumably
you could give eight million eight
billion people lightning wallet or
wallets more than one you could build
lightning into
paypal and square cash and apple pay and
google pay and
and every messaging app
and
you could use it
at all scale
not just to move money but to move
anything
the other day i did a thousand satoshi
transaction on lightning for one satoshi
in one second
hey everybody
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so lightning is a is an an obvious um
layer two
and um and the simple
the
the simple design
idea is
i create a channel with a million times
less bitcoin in it and i move it a
million times faster
yeah
and that works fine
i mean and there are other approaches of
course but um
if we give up um
you can give up uh all of the proof of
work because you don't have as much at
stake
and um
and your state you're creating a staked
network but you're staking it with an
external asset
that derives its value
from
external assets external to it
energy capital and political capital and
technical capital are flowing into
bitcoin capital on bitcoin capitals and
flowing into the lightning network in
order to secure it
so
once you get that idea
you realize that
a layer one layer two solution is a lot
better idea than a higher performance
layer one solution
because making the layer one twice as
fast or three times as fast or ten times
as fast or a hundred times fast it
doesn't get due to a million times as
fast
and uh what what you're doing is
it's no different than the common sense
way that human beings solve every
problem
if you had
a million dollars in the bank and you
were going out on a saturday night and
you needed to spend money quickly
you would take a hundred dollars in cash
and you would break it into 25 bills you
put it in your wallet
and you would rest assured that you
can't lose more than a hundred dollars
and you would leave the rest of the
money locked up in the bank
and the money in the bank takes 48 hours
to get at
and takes lots of degrees of
authentication
is behind
three feet of steel
and the money in your wallet
you know is in your front pocket
and it takes one second to get at
and you know occasionally you drop a
five dollar bill on the floor when
you're drunk
and the life goes on
[Music]
and if somebody said you had to take the
entire million dollars with you out to a
nightclub every saturday night
you would say that's pretty stupid
and they said well you know the bank
vault doors are too heavy we're just
going to have to re-engineer them to
make them a thousand times lighter so
that you can open the bank vault doors
faster so that you can
access the million dollars on saturday
night while you're drinking yeah
you might think well maybe it wasn't
such a good idea to actually have access
to all my money while i'm drinking on a
saturday night
and the same is true with the idea of a
of a base layer right maybe it's not
such a good idea to have that many
transactions on the base layer because
because every single moving part is just
something to break
right and uh and so you you got yourself
too many moving parts
you don't want it so the layer two
platform is this idea that
what i want to do
is i want to just take i want to create
a cache
a cache if you will of a much smaller
amount of value
that i have that is much less at risk
that i can afford to move much quicker
and i don't need the same degree of
security on it
and um
lightning is not the only layer two
platform you can conceive of you can get
another crypto network could be a layer
two platform in theory you could spin up
a proof of stake network and you could
stake it with bitcoin
and it you know and it wouldn't be
uh a theoretically different thing
if you spin out you can also spin up a
crypto network proof of stake and then
you can move bitcoin through it but if
you're
if you're using the native token and
moving bitcoin then your bitcoins only
as secure as the native token and and of
course if the native token is gender to
thin air and yo-yo coin
yeah
right then
that's a problem
ultimately the real issue with layer
twos is
is you're moving a portion of value into
a
into that layer two trusting the layer
two
in order to get performance or
functionality exactly
so so you can do it
you can do it with lightning and the
logical thing you do is you stick with
bitcoin and then you reduce the
you reduce the risk to the channel
liquidity that's a way to do it and
that's logical
another way to do it is um
is like
to build some kind of system like maybe
if i was in a exchange
and i had bitcoin on the exchange and i
created an api
to the exchange that was programmable
then in a way the exchanges is holding
the bitcoin the api is providing you
with a very fast speed
now you've taken a different risk you've
taken
exchange risk
you know which is some counterparty risk
of some sort
if you uh if you use a paxos or a knight
egg platform those are those are kind of
more conventional platforms
to build applications on top of
like nida has a platform for you to
build a credit card plugged into bitcoin
and paxos is a platform you know plugged
into paypal you know to their
application
and so if you
if you want that kind of platform you
plug a mobile application into one of
those platforms there is some risk with
that counterparty
it is limited to the amount of bitcoin
you're handling on the platform and you
can
do all such things to mitigate the risk
but
clearly there are
there is a need for layer two platforms
and there isn't a need for just one
layer two platform like lightning is a
compelling
decentralized
you know layer two platform
because it's decentralized
but there are a lot of layer two
platforms that will be centralized
because they need to be regulated in
order to in order to meet with
regulatory compliance obligations yeah
and there are a lot of counterparties
like a credit card company
might might prefer to work with a
centralized layer two than a
decentralized layer two
because they have regulatory constraints
yeah and this is all this is similarly
rooted
in something very fundamental as proof
of work is there's this fundamental
tradeoff between security
and freedom typically
and so in money we're seeing that the
security model of bitcoin is its
decentralization
but with that comes a lot of work right
it doesn't do many transactions per
second but what you can do is abstract
that bitcoin to a more centralized
database whether it's a
custodian
or a lightning a lightning is kind of a
decentralized um
centralizing force
you pick up all this functionality but
you're giving up some of the trust
minimization you get at the base layer
i i would say that
if your focus was on property and what
you want is digital property
you want the system optimized for
durability integrity over time and
performance and functionality and
compliance are not on your list your
list is durability integrity and
mortality yeah
very simple but as you move toward
applications
and you move away from property toward
applications you either have to optimize
for functionality
like if there if there is no
functionality there's no application
or you have to optimize for performance
if i can't pay for the coffee you know
within one second i can't pay for the
coffee or you have to optimize for um
compliance
if i really want to um to issue an
insurance policy or i want to issue a
security or if i want to issue maybe a
yield a yield token
and it's illegal
in a certain state
then if i want to do it i have to
actually
comply
and compliance pops up with stable coins
compliance pops up with defy exchanges
compliance pops up with derivatives
compliance will pop up with any kind of
thing that looks like it's a security
token
these are all
applications
and but you know is there a future for
those applications on top of bitcoin
yeah
but
bitcoin's not the application
right uh it's it's and the application
will be built on a layer two platform
or it'll be built naked against the
bitcoin right maybe it maybe it is
you know you don't use a platform like
i can implement my bitcoin credit card
using the knightig platform or i could
hire a
army of programmers and i could build it
one off right right
right there's this there's this little
battle of you know do i build a custom
app or do i build an app using your sdk
and so platforms are going to be you
know either operating system type things
with an sdk
you know
yeah this i mean that's what they're
going to be they're going to look like
that and it might be it looks like an
aws where they spin up services
you could imagine aws spinning up a
whole package of like lightning nodes
if i could spin up my lightning nodes
you know and run them maybe i would do
that maybe i wouldn't do that
probably lightning is not the best
example because people are looking for
something totally decentralized there
but
but um
a better example would
just be an sdk that allows someone to
deploy a mobile app
that has uh has lightning and bitcoin
money transfers embedded in the mobile
app and i just want to do it quick and
easy yeah i guess i can scale the back
end there's kind of a continuum right
where we have this
totally
kind of decentralized layer two and
lightning maybe you have sdks in the
middle versus a fully centralized
solution via via nidig or someone else
but it just speaks to the versatility of
bitcoin which again you can't get from a
gold right you can't get this
versatility of application layer with
something like gold
and there's going to be competition
right massive competition with regard to
what are the sdks and the layer 2 tool
kits
yes
you know and even and even lightning has
like lightning labs creating a tool kit
to help you yeah boy lightning right so
so that's competition
and it's sort of interesting but it gets
a bit it gets theoretical in a way so
it's actually probably
more instructive to move down to the to
the applications themselves and talk
about
what are the applications of bitcoin
that scale the system
because these are the things that are
that make the difference and uh once you
start to think about the the way the
range of applications then you figure
out what you might build into your
platform if you're trying to create a
business
hosting those applications
um
so let's talk about that um the the
obvious application
you know is is
is the individual holder that owns
bitcoin or just holds it in cold storage
for long periods of time so
it's like the family
or the individual i think that's
pretty well understood and that's been
pioneered for a while
um the the thing that's um
that's varying is the way that
that individual chooses to hold the
bitcoin and that's where it gets really
interesting
so um
for example probably the
well the one thing i probably want to
start with is this observation that
that one interesting application of
bitcoin is a bond
you can actually create
a derivative or a security of bitcoin
and scale the network with the bond
so if a government
owns bitcoin
right the government is the customer and
if the government then buys the bitcoin
and then issues sovereign debt
the solver in debt becomes a bitcoin
derivative
so you're so you're creating credit from
bitcoin bitcoin is the base layer money
and and the debt or the credit of the
government or the bond is the is the
layer to money
um it could be backed in whole by
bitcoin like 100 or it could be in part
by bitcoin or something if a
municipality like a city
buys bitcoin and issues municipal
municipal bonds
that becomes another form of uh of an
application of bitcoin if an agency like
fannie mae or freddie mac or any
international agency you know united
nations or the like if they were to buy
bitcoin and then issue any kind of bonds
it's this it's it's another example of a
derivative
when a corporation buys bitcoin like
microstrategy
and then we issue a bond that's backed
by the bitcoin we created that
derivative
and you could even take
you could take uh bitcoin there's 700
billion dollars of this bitcoin out
there and you could issue asset-backed
bonds call it bitcoin-backed securities
these be mortgage-backed securities
and with mortgage-backed securities we
take a bunch of heterogeneous assets and
we securitize them
into into a note
and so bitcoin is
imagine you had 21 million identical
houses
called bitcoins
and you decided you were just going to
create a bond backed by 11 of them
or 37 of them an asset back bond
all all of those
are applications of bitcoin they're not
applications the way a computer
scientist thinks of them
their financial applications of bitcoin
you can have technical applications of
bitcoin that are running on mobile
devices like mobile apps
you could have web applications
you could have uh you could have
financial applications of bitcoin and a
lot of times when people think about
scaling
they
they only think about the technical
applications
and they don't really think about the
financial applications
if we um
if we move on to the next layer our next
type of application think about mobile
payments
a mobile payment a mobile app that does
payments is is something you can plug
into bitcoin like square and paypal
have plugged mobile apps into bitcoin
and what does the mobile app do well
maybe unless you buy bitcoin
maybe it lets you send bitcoin
maybe it lets you send bitcoin via the
lightning network like the moon wallet
that's an application
but maybe it lets you send bitcoin on
its own proprietary network like square
cash tags you can send bitcoin between
one cash tag and another cash tag
instantly for free
or you could send you could send bitcoin
uh you know between any two mobile apps
within the network using
the handle of the network
right if you were doing that
then probably the the application
provider
custody some of the bitcoin and they're
moving in they become a fractional bank
a bitcoin
bitcoin becomes the central bank in
cyberspace
or as
our friend ross stevens would say the
decentral bank
in cyberspace
and then all of these other mobile apps
or websites become fractional banks
plugged into the central bank of
cyberspace
and um
and uh you know
they they custody some amount of bitcoin
uh the mobile payment space is
particularly promising
because all these mobile applications
are one step removed from being mobile
banks
and there's no reason why you know
facebook and apple and google and the
like don't eventually become mobile
like
it was a matter of time before they let
you send photos
and then at some point they decided to
let you send videos
and then they decided they give you
emojis
and uh then they decided they'd let you
send audio files
yeah and in a way you could think of
bitcoin you know it's just another file
type
it's all it's all media
file type yeah
so kind of inevitable
now
you start with mobile payments and then
when you start to think about moving
that
that around and the services that
consumers want right you're now into
retail banking
so the retail banking applications are
in essence savings accounts and credit
lines based on bitcoin for consumers
so you've got billions of people that
presumably want to carry
they want a wallet with an asset in it
and uh the asset would be bitcoin
and then they want to borrow against it
so you want to be able to draw down a
credit line
at an interest rate so i carry around
ten thousand in bitcoin i borrow a
thousand dollars i pay four percent
interest
now i've i've drawn the credit line in
the local fiat currency
in question euros dollars yen
i pay the interest rate whatever that is
and then i spend the money
and that's pretty popular i mean credit
cards are quite popular right
how many credit cards are there in the
world so we're really talking about
credit cards drawn against
pro bitcoin property instead of
unsecured credit lines
and then the opposite
is uh is also the case
maybe the consumers want savings
accounts
that generate yield
so
i have bitcoin i either hold a bitcoin
or i move the bitcoin into a yield
generating account or i move the bitcoin
into or i put it in a collateral line
and i i use it and pledge it as credit
now
is that the same everywhere in the world
no not really
uh you're going to have different
regulators in every jurisdiction in
every state they're going to tell you
whether or not you need a money transfer
license or a banking license or whether
or not you need a
securities
registration in order to give yield or
give loans or move money around
right and of course
there are always nuances i think this is
one of the nuances the caldos calls el
salvador to designate bitcoin as legal
tender so that they could easily move
bitcoin around on mobile apps
uh in a place where the government is
collapsed
then the solution's going to be
a mobile wallet with lightning
because there is no regulator
and and wherever wherever you have that
kind of
of weak governance then it's not going
to matter as the as the governance gets
stronger
then there are going to be questions of
what's your compliance requirements to
do a retail banking application
and it looks like it's it's literally
different state to state country to
country jurisdiction to jurisdiction and
evolving right now
and um
that's one of the reasons why maybe
centralized application c5 will actually
beat the defy
i mean because you know the message of
default is oh it's really expensive
going through all this aml kyc yes
that's true
but it's also illegal not to
so
so the real question will be can you do
it and how much
validation do you have to go through to
do it and how compliant do you want to
be
hey everybody so that was episode 16
of the sailor series
and we started off this installment by
taking a dive into the economic dynamics
of bitcoin mining
and what staley describes as the shift
from a
energy intensive business to a
technology intensive business
and
again if we're looking i think it's
important to reflect here on bitcoin
as sealer described it in a previous
episode
as a microcosm of capitalism
because what we're seeing here and
describing here in bitcoin mining
is indeed a natural progression of
capitalism itself so
this is akin to
the bitcoin mining shifting from energy
intensity to technology intensity
is akin to the shift from
labor intensity to capital intensity in
agriculture
so what does this mean
uh it's in the name actually capitalism
right the purpose and intent of
capitalism is to accumul accumulate
capital
and capital is anything that accelerates
an actor
from an intention to the realization of
that intention um
so if you
are trying to go from new york to la
you know your shoes will accomplish that
aim at a certain speed a car will do it
much faster and a plane will do it even
faster than that so
as you increase
your sophistication up the capital stack
from shoes to car to an airplane you're
actually decreasing the distance in time
between you and your goal in this case
going from new york to la
so
as humans accumulate more capital
they are further magnifying the
economic output of labor right that's
what capital really does so
naturally
you know in the case of agriculture
when we didn't have much capital and
this could be you know knowledge tools
etc
um
it took a lot of man hours to produce
enough food to feed everybody
but as you as we start to accumulate
capital
and we have additional
layers of of labor magnification it
takes less and less labor to feed the
whole population and so this is
reflected in
i forget the exact numbers you know
clearly at the dawn of the agricultural
age it was basically 100 of human labor
going into feeding everyone and today in
the world economy i think agricultural
employment is sub 5
so that is
only possible through the accumulation
of capital
and indeed
this is the purpose of civilization
actually is to trade and innovate
to magnify productivity in this way
and really those are in fact you know
despite common misconception people
think government is is involved in the
creation of capital
it's only through trade and innovation
that we can create capital in this way
and so for bitcoin this pattern plays
out in the network shifting from a very
energy intensive model as it was early
on when people were just mining on
computers
to a more
sophisticated
capital stack and therefore more capital
intensity over time
and so sailors are making the argument
here that
again contrary to common misconception
that the bitcoin price will always track
to its energy consumption that he
actually thinks we either have hit peak
energy consumption or will soon hit
peak energy consumption and then the
intensity
uh the capital intensity
of bitcoin mining will shift from energy
towards towards capital towards
technology rather
so
and that this is a pattern too that you
know he's not just hypothesizing this
this is well established already in
bitcoin's 13-year history
so i thought you know that's a very
intelligent way to look at it and once
again it's just uh pointing to bitcoin
as a microcosm of capitalism which is a
very useful model
for understanding its
its resistance to disruption um
so
this is
and there's a there's another dynamic
equilibrium here there's a dance right
between energy producers and
technologists
that make up this microcosm of
capitalism so this is very much like a
darwinian dynamic equilibrium
one in which where energy producers are
effectively using brute force
in the attempt to solve a bitcoin mining
puzzle
and produce new bitcoin
um
but they are competing against
technologists that are using technique
instead so they're trying to get more
efficiency
per unit of energy
um
in in the production of hashes so you
know hash is just a
a guess or a vote in this mining puzzle
and so
uh energy producers are just trying to
cast as many
votes as possible kind of brute force
approach but then the technologist
side of it is more dependent on
technique trying to get more hashes per
unit of energy
so this is a classic you know
magnitude of force versus efficiency of
force struggle uh and this has been
observed and written about in many
markets um
and you have investors
standing outside of this struggle
you know effectively allocating capital
to whichever one is more profitable at
that time
so as sailor describes this this is a
very delicate dance or balance of power
in that we're constantly
pushing the envelope on energy
production you know
older generation miners are rolling to
cheaper and cheaper energy sources
everyone's incentivized to monetize
cheap energy uh or or stranded energy
and then on the other side you have
technologists incentivized to
do competition to squeeze as much margin
or as many hashes at
from each unit of energy as possible
and this is again
looking at bitcoin as a microcosm of
capitalism
this is that dynamic darwinian
equilibrium that keeps the whole
ecosystem healthy
this over time is driving down energy
consumption per extra hash generated
and causes the improvement of
semiconductors or asics
so
the net outcome of this
is is that same progression we just
identified in capitalism where we have
this shift from
energy intensity to technology intensity
and through an accounting lens we could
say this is a move from
variable cost structure
right where most of the cost per
per bitcoin produced is this variable of
energy
to a more fixed cost structure where
you're actually
uh assembling these
uh pieces of mining infrastructure a6
cetera and then amortizing them over
time
and so this will over time shift the s
the contention actually
uh the market competition will shift
from being one primarily of energy
production
and we would expect it to shift more
towards technology fabrication as more
of the
mining competition's intensity shifts
away from energy and into technology
so this is really important too because
as the network then grows becomes larger
and continues to proliferate it becomes
more technology intensive
this is going to incentivize outside
capital allocators
to take it even more seriously right
again you with the with more fixed cost
of production you get a more predictable
and manageable
market or production process to
participate in so larger more
risk-averse polls of capital
will now start to look at bitcoin mining
as an investable
domain
so
another way to maybe think about this is
that
capital itself is in a it's a form of
frozen time or energy
so
as the network becomes
uh more constant within the plans of
capital allocators which is to say it's
larger it's more robust less likely to
fail right so it's kind of forcing
everyone to develop a bitcoin strategy
as we've talked about previously
um
you'll see
more um
investment related to the fabrication of
asics of the technology side of the
business come into play
and what this does now is it starts to
actually blow up that spatial and
temporal bubble we talked about in the
last two episodes
where sailor laid out his seven layers
of proof-of-work network security
um
such that if you want to come into the
bitcoin mining game and say mount a 51
attack you're now competing with all of
these other uh technology fabricators
that are incentivized
uh effectively to plug their production
networks into bitcoin mining and and
generate profits from them so
it becomes this
this is where those layers are developed
i guess um
and maybe you know
the other way to think about this is
that
the energy piece is very direct you're
just plugging in energy you're
running it through the mining
competition and you're trying to produce
bitcoin
but when you plug in the capital piece
you're talking about
connecting production
branches of production that are much
longer much more roundabout much more
complicated much more capital intensive
so
they are able to bring a lot more wealth
to bear into the network over time
versus just monetizing energy directly
so this is
i mean the visualization i have here is
we're moving from something that's
purely dynamic which is just the
monetization of energy directly to
something that's starting to lay down uh
static
layers as well in the form of of capital
networks
so
this
if we're again looking at it through the
lens of capitalism this is what we do
on a global
economy basis right we're trying to
amplify the returns on our energy our
labor energy by accumulating capital
we would expect the bitcoin network to
follow a similar path
and that it would initially be a lot of
raw power being monetized directly but
over time
the technology which is to say the
capital intensity the business should
increase
and you'll actually get greater returns
on that energy expenditure
such that energy usage peaks at some
point it does not track to the bitcoin
price
forever
um which would say sailor brilliantly
elaborated that it probably moves at the
log of the prize or something like that
so
you know great points there i guess the
overall moral of the story is that
all this open competition
in bitcoin the microcosm of capitalism
is what keeps all market actors honest
and adaptive right you're constantly
being pressure checked by competition
you have constant incentives to evolve
to be at the cutting edge
to cut costs to create value
and
you know it's this darwinism that keeps
ecosystems free
of failed or weak strategies right we
see this in nature if you
if there's an animal in the herd and
he's moving more slowly than the rest
then those are the ones the predators
pick off
and the net outcome of that is that the
herd is
best conditioned for resisting predation
so similarly in the darwinism of
capitalism uh weaker inferior strategies
or or non-cost-effective strategies get
picked off right they get destroyed they
get out-competed
so
that
in a nutshell
is why bitcoin via the proof of work
mining algorithm
uh wins right and it wins over
all all of these other consensus
mechanisms like you know proof of stake
is being theorized about a lot lately
but
it suffers from a distinct lack of this
darwinian element that makes proof of
work
so viable
um
so just great points there connecting
capitalism and
uh say that darwinism
got into a little bit of an exchange on
how bitcoin actually bootstraps its
market value
and that there's a point here
i've talked about before but i'll
reiterate as i think it's important
you know in the market for gold mining
the production cost
tends to converge to the market value
again there's a dynamic equilibrium
between the two
uh such that if gold is selling for two
thousand dollars an ounce in the
marketplace and i can go out and mine it
at a fully loaded cost of production say
nineteen hundred dollars per ounce
i am incentivized to increase production
right to
allocate more capital into the
production of gold
right up until
i'm producing at a cost of
1999.99 right so long as there is any
economic margin left in my production
process i'm incentivized to produce gold
so
i see this as we again we have these
larger
production structures these more
roundabout production processes
specifically related to semiconductors
and asics coming into the bitcoin
scene connecting into this bitcoin
microcosm of of capitalism
and
as more they're again bringing more
force to bear more wealth to bear into
the network
um
channeling more energy is maybe another
way to think about it
that we're they're actually increasing
the cost per bitcoin
uh and at each having all of that
collective energy and technology
intensity
is going into mining you know the daily
production gets cut in half so if we're
doing 900 bitcoin per day
and the current having epoch that goes
immediately to 450
but the energy and technology intensity
did not change that much and actually
changes less and less over time as
energy is a smaller component right
energy can be turned off quickly but
these large
production processes roundabout
production processes processes of
capital cannot be so easily turned off
right they're much more permanent than
just the energy side of the business
so
this means
in my mind the way i understand this
that miners are effectively incentivized
to hold
bitcoin to not sell bitcoin
in anticipation of each having because
at each having
the the bitcoin side of their uh p l the
bitcoin revenue is actually getting cut
in half
so
you're incentivized to hold bitcoin
and not sell the cover production cost
in anticipation of each having
this is
and in the competition between miners
you want to hold as long as possible so
the stronger balance sheets will tend to
prevail or more prudently managed
balance sheets
and this engages this like a game
theoretic
uh process between minors that's
somewhat of a self-fulfilling prophecy
and i've talked about this
in some of my writing previously where
there's this virtuous cycle
of bitcoin
that no one has figured out how to break
you know i've called this a an
unstoppable vortex of incentives
and it's one in which
uh basically
bitcoin
mining
is the security budget for bitcoin so as
more
energy and technology is allocated into
the network bitcoin becomes more secure
right
this makes its network more robust makes
bitcoin a better store of value as
bitcoin becomes a better store of value
more people want to buy it as money buy
it and hold it as a sore value this
causes its price to increase
a price increase in bitcoin makes mining
more profitable
as mining becomes more profitable more
energy and technology comes under the
mining network
and that makes bitcoin more secure again
and so on and so forth so there's this
virtuous cycle
that is bitcoin
you know centered on this
uh idea of bitcoin as capitalism really
it's like an unstoppable
game
um that really just forces rational
economic actors to play
so
that was a real interesting discussion
there um
but see they did make some good
counterpoints that you can't necessarily
know
the technology side of the inputs right
because that that's subject to
innovation but we would still expect
that
whatever the best semiconductor or asic
technology available is
like that would be brought to bear in
this game because again it's
um
the difficulty adjustment constantly
makes it more or less difficult based on
on innovation so it makes
bitcoin adaptive to innovation itself um
which is you know
hard to get your head around it's like
bitcoin is a living money in a lot of
ways
so
speaking of living money we went into a
discussion about how bitcoin would uh
scale through layers this is something
nature does as well nature evolves in
layers
so looking at layer 2 itself it's
basically
making trade-offs
where you're giving up some trust
minimization of bitcoin at the base
layer
to pick up some additional functionality
at a higher layer there too
and this is very similar and intuitive
to
a trusted third party right
where
so bitcoin itself at the base layer what
makes it so expensive and slow
is that every node and every miner is
checking every other node and miners
work right it's
it's distributed consensus it's
purposefully
slow and expensive
so that you don't need to trust any
single actor right it's optimizing for
decentralization
so clearly there's a lot more energy
necessary to update this global set of
ledgers versus just trying to update one
ledger which is effectively that's the
opposite end of the spectrum that's what
a trusted third party would be right
that's what the fed is that's what your
bank is
um you're just trusting one group one
political
aggregation of willpower
versus the uh
distributed self-interest of all actors
so but
because of that there's a big
gain in efficiency right you can get
many more transactions per second on
something like paypal or venmo than you
can bitcoin base layer
so what is bitcoin going to do bitcoin
to scale in terms of payments per second
it has to scale through layers you
cannot you cannot get rid of this
trade-off at the base layer we need
21 million and we need decentralization
those are the
you know or say fixed supply and
decentralization these are the most
important properties of a non-state
money
and that's what the bitcoin base layer
optimizes for
but to get it um
circulating
as a more effective medium of exchange
bitcoin has to scale at higher layers
and um you know we see this already with
with third parties you know there's
groups like nidig that are basically
acting as a bitcoin bank
so you can they're offering all the
traditional financial services
you're accustomed to using in the legacy
financial system but on a bitcoin
standard instead
so that's one way to approach it right
you can have layer 2
organizations
you can also have
layer 2 applications which we went into
the lightning network in a little bit
but uh you know the point here is that
we have to optimize for decentralization
at the base layer as we've enumerated
plenty
in this series so far
and
precisely because that keeps the money
immune to opinion
politics counterparty risk right it's a
it's a neutral
set of rules
that no one can change and that's the
most important property of bitcoin at
the base layer
so
we we can kind of look at it like this
money itself and this is more general
than just bitcoin
is this base layer protocol it is this
set of rules
that
ideally no one can change this is kind
of what gold was historically in the
analog age right it was favored as money
because no one could mess with the
supply
no one could change the chemical
properties of gold etc etc
but everything
so we could say that money is kind of
like the base layer protocol for human
action
everything on top of that
is really just an application
so
you know
and this maybe gets into
we talk about the functions of money
right the store value
medium of exchange in a unit of account
this is to say that that base layer
really provides us
things that are very important to human
being
which is a means of establishing value
right what
what do other people find valuable
a means for actually transacting with
others to discover what is valuable and
an accounting system to communicate the
whole thing
so
and maybe this is a bit of an over
generalization this is a way i'm
thinking about it lately and i think it
ties in nicely
is that if we look at it this way that
money is the base layer for human action
and then all the institutions and
businesses and organizations we build on
top of it are effectively applications
we could say that
this becomes the common thread between
the two that
you know individuals
organisms organizations they're all just
wealth strategies effectively
and when i say wealth i mean
specifically a lot of people think that
oh wealth is like
you know your riches or your stuff but
even in an
organic sense you could just consider
wealth as being like time saved through
through some
organic specialization or innovation
um
and at a very you know deeply biological
level that's how evolution occurs
actually is there's
some need the environment is uh
demanding
some need of the organism right whether
it's an eye to sea
uh that lets you gather food more
quickly or find mates more quickly
the evolution itself is
the build-up of these economic
specializations over time so it's
increasing
the organism's productivity
and then at a collective level you know
organisms come together to do the same
thing you know for human beings it's
trade and innovation the reason we
coalesce as a civilization is because
we are more productive acting in concert
than we are in isolation if that were
not true then we would not be
grouping together like this um
so
you'd say that at biological level that
evolution is occurring through
specialization
at the socioeconomic level
innovation occurs through specialization
as well
clearly that's how
uh you know a tool that's more fit to
its job just tends to out compete in the
marketplace
so
herein lies that connection where
these these are very similar dynamics
right we have evolution
that's kind of this organic process of
innovation you know the body or
is
learning through interaction with its
environment to become more fit over time
and then we have innovation which is
more like an inorganic process of
evolution so you know in the case of
humans we're actually
figuring out how to be more fit to our
environment through material engagement
right through tools
things like that
um
and so yeah i think
that is just
a big world view shift right there
um especially for people
unfamiliar with economics and monetary
history
i think the prevailing belief is that
government is just the originator of
money somehow you know government's like
the base layer and then they issue money
and there's a market on top of that
but when you study
socioeconomic history and you know
evolutionary biology how did we get to
this point it's actually the precise
opposite
and so we are engaged in a market
process in nature nature is a market
process we keep talking about darwinism
and capitalism i mean they're very
similar
and
money is really beneath government right
government is just
one business model it's a business model
designed
you know to monopolize violence and
enforce property rights ostensibly
but it itself is just a business it is
just another wealth acquisition strategy
similar to every other organization and
organism in the world
um
so
this maybe points to how big of a deal
bitcoin is right it's something that's
disrupting
money which is the base layer operating
system for a human being
in the most fundamental way possible so
in my mind this explains why so few
people understand the significance of it
and it also points to
you know those of us that study it
closely maybe we're not seeing larger
implications of what this might be
so
you know i guess the closest analogy
here is that i think the transformation
from the agricultural age in the into
the industrial age
will be equally significant as the
transition from the industrial agent to
the digital age so if you could imagine
being a farmer
in the agricultural age and trying to
envision what where we are today right
where the industrial age has brought us
um
you know
flying and
telecommunications and all these things
it would just sound like magic right and
this gets us all the way back
to the beginning of the sailor series
where he quoted um
i forget the author's name but he says
any sufficiently advanced technology is
indistinguishable from magic so
i think
this is just a great way to look at uh
bitcoin bitcoin mining again
and
you know it comes down to
this base protocol and the functions
that it that it serves that money lets
us
store value
which is to say
we can hold something
that other market actors find relevant
right that other people find valuable
lets us accomplish trade which gets us
to the second function of money which is
free exchange
this is letting us
become more energy efficient through
trade and it facilitates innovation
which further increases our economic
efficiency
and then finally money holds us to
account right which one of these
applications
you know organizations or
any other application we build on top of
the base layer of money which one is
working which one is not
so that we can facilitate this process
of creative destruction that
propels capitalism and darwinism forward
so i hope you enjoyed that one that was
episode 16 of the sailor series and i
will see you guys back here again soon