SaylorCorpus

Michael Saylor on Bitcoin $100k to $13M and MicroStrategy’s Monster Run

RiskReversal Media · 2024-12-05 · 38m · View on YouTube →

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[Music]

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well welcome to an extraordinarily

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special on the tape Dan Nathan gami but

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we're joined by my friend Dan's friend

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and obviously the friend of the entire

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cryptocurrency Community the CEO of

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micro strategies Michael saor is joining

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us Michael thank you so much for being

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here yeah thanks for having me guys and

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we saw Michael uh earlier in the week

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Anthony scaramucci's book party you

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obviously wrote the forward for that you

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were funny in your comments saying that

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you know Anthony wrote This Book and I'm

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using sort of air quotes in writing it

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Anthony was part of the book but he said

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at the end of it you know you should

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have one to 2% of your portfolio in

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Bitcoin and after basically you know

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writing this book he cames up with 2%

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you made the point wait a second if

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you're really passionate about this 2%

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is sort of a rounding error so let's

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start

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there yeah well I think that if you read

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an entire book of investment advice or

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financial advice you don't want someone

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to end the book saying I I don't have a

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solution for 98% of your

1:06

problem but here's an insurance policy

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one or two per is like buying an

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insurance

1:12

policy but 20 30 40% 50%

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75% is like solving the problem so I you

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know I I just said like I don't think

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you're G to come up with 50 good ideas

1:25

and I I think that um the whole idea of

1:28

diversification

1:30

uh makes sense when you don't know the

1:32

answer but you don't want to make a

1:34

mistake but I think in the field of

1:37

engineering and in many fields in life

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it's like when your kid uh is a good

1:44

basketball player you don't say I think

1:46

you should split your time between

1:48

archery and jogging and swimming and

1:51

basketball and football and hockey and

1:54

16 other things just in case you tell

1:57

them to focus on basketball and you

1:59

build the plane out of aluminum and you

2:01

don't diversify the steel beam into clay

2:04

and bronze and balls of wood right if

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there's an answer there's an answer and

2:09

you just tell someone the answer when

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you don't know the answer you're like

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yeah we go to Vegas and Gamble and pick

2:16

anything but you know don't bet more

2:17

than two% of your money right don't

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don't you know so my point really is

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there's a disconnect between giving

2:25

someone a piece of advice to make their

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life better and then saying but I 98%

2:31

don't believe in it all right so let's

2:33

go to the beginning and Dan mentioned

2:36

how we met and I'll let the audience

2:37

know so I think you would just sort of

2:40

come to the realization you spent some

2:42

time working on bitcoin and coming to

2:44

the conclusion that this made a lot of

2:46

sense you joined Morgan Brennan and me I

2:49

was able to sort of co-host power lunch

2:51

with her it was one of your first

2:53

interviews you did sort of in a

2:54

meaningful way and you sort of outlined

2:57

this vision for micro strategies and

2:59

what you're going to do I think it's now

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three or four years later my math is a

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little squishy but let's just sort of

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split hairs a little bit and that plan

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is absolutely coming to fruition as we

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sit here you have now over 400,000

3:14

Bitcoin on your balance sheet I want to

3:16

say at an average cost of about

3:19

$58,000 or so you can correct me if I'm

3:21

wrong but everything you thought was

3:24

going to happen is sort of playing out

3:27

so let's start there and you know maybe

3:30

you can talk about some of the things

3:31

that you didn't see happening you did

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see happening uh some of the pitfalls

3:36

along the way you know give us sort of

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that calendar that sort of

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timeline yeah I think um the middle of

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2020 we're running a $500 million

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business with 500 million in cash

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generating 75 million in cash flow a

3:52

year growing Z to 5% competing against

3:56

Microsoft lockdowns hit uh our stock has

4:00

zero options uh $2 million of liquidity

4:04

a day the options are worthless the

4:06

stock is worthless we have no investor

4:08

interest we're stuck in a in a

4:11

competitive trap there's no way to crawl

4:14

out of the competitive trap we've got

4:16

500 million in cash generating 4%

4:19

interest and all of a sudden Jerome pal

4:21

cranks that down to 0% interest and then

4:25

everybody's locked in their home and I'm

4:27

staring at and then I watch all the

4:30

Magnificent Seven stocks

4:32

double and then and then you realize

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that if you're sitting there all your

4:38

capital is going to be siphoned off by

4:40

the Magnificent 7 all your human capital

4:42

is going to be siphoned off by the

4:44

Magnificent

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7 right even if you have a good product

4:49

it won't be a good product in five years

4:50

once all your engineers quit and so

4:53

we're kind of stuck in a trap so so at

4:55

that point you know you have three

4:57

choices you have a death just sell the

5:01

company and a lot of people do 99% I had

5:05

100 competitors guys 99 of them or

5:08

actually all hundred of them solds right

5:11

you just exit uh or slow depth I have my

5:15

500 million I'm just going to start to

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pay all my employees massive cash

5:19

bonuses to not quit retention bonuses

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but you're just going to go through the

5:23

cash at some point you're not you're not

5:25

going to be able to get out of your hole

5:27

uh you're just going to you're going to

5:28

linger on as a zom

5:30

or you take a risk and the and the risk

5:33

is a transformational acquisition it's

5:36

like you know when you buy VMware it's

5:39

like C can you buy a company that's

5:42

growing 20 to 40% a year that's a that's

5:45

a Monster World beater company and can

5:49

you buy it for cash or buy it for stock

5:51

and maybe you have a new lease on life

5:53

and so I looked at you know option one I

5:55

looked at option two and I thought well

5:57

is there some monster company we can buy

6:00

with our 500 million in cash because

6:02

right now it's a liability and obviously

6:05

I can't I couldn't find one but then I

6:07

looked at Bitcoin and I thought Bitcoin

6:09

looks like Facebook for money it looks

6:11

like it looks like the global monetary

6:13

Network it looks like the dominant it

6:15

looks like the Google or the Facebook

6:17

and so I'm like what's the big Tech

6:19

monster Network for

6:21

money and Bitcoin looked like that for

6:25

me so I thought hey maybe I can buy do a

6:27

$500 million acquisition

6:30

I buy 500 million of Bitcoin what if you

6:32

could buy a company growing 60% a year

6:35

at one times

6:36

Revenue with cash that you don't need

6:39

that that was the idea and and it was

6:42

kind of out of frustration and

6:44

Desperation but it was it was a

6:46

strategic Hail Mary because your choice

6:48

is just sell the company give up and the

6:50

company would have been sold for $6 a

6:52

share in Enterprise Value

6:55

okay6 doar a share after 30 years of

6:58

life so we do that we get to the 500

7:02

million Bitcoin rallies the stock

7:04

doubles the stock triples now we just

7:06

have an opportunistic run uh we discover

7:09

the convertible bond market and they

7:11

want to give us 650 million in cash

7:13

pretty much for free for free for not

7:15

pretty much for free for free if I came

7:18

to you and said I'll give you $650

7:19

million at 75 basis points go invest in

7:23

something can you come up with an idea

7:26

for something to invest in that yields

7:27

more than 1%

7:29

probably if you can't right you're not

7:31

in business right probably you can't so

7:35

we did that and Bitcoin rallied again

7:37

and all of a sudden we were able to

7:38

raise a billion for zero okay and then

7:42

uh then we realized well might as well

7:44

take another 500 million and we and we

7:46

took a $500 million loan at 6% and we

7:50

thought well bitcoin's gone up 60 we'll

7:52

borrow it six we'll loan at 60 or Capt

7:54

54 you know and it moved around and then

7:57

at some point some Banker called me and

7:59

said you know you can do this ATM where

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you can actually sell equity in the

8:02

market I said you're kidding me really

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that's possible uh and actually the

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greatest innovation of the past 30 years

8:09

guys in the capital markets is the ATM

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shelf registration of equity because it

8:13

allows an issuer to issue to sell shares

8:16

per pursue to an investor you're

8:19

basically on the same footing as anybody

8:21

else it's a fair thing and for my entire

8:24

career if we wanted to sell $100 million

8:27

of equity our stock would get hammered

8:30

down 20% and so it felt pretty good to

8:33

not get hammered 20% and be able to sell

8:35

into the market whenever you want and so

8:38

now we hit upon this uh this new stage

8:42

where we realize we have a commodity

8:46

that yields that returns more than the

8:48

S&P

8:50

index that um that we can buy by selling

8:53

our stock so if if you know if you're an

8:57

investor and I give you a return High

8:59

higher than the S&P how much Capital are

9:01

you going to give me infinite so we

9:04

started doing that we sold a billion

9:06

dollars of that and the short of it is

9:08

we went from a $500 million investment

9:11

to1 billion of capital raise you know

9:16

and the stock you know went up by a

9:17

factor of 10 or 20 and then we got then

9:22

we got to 2024 and 2024 was a you know

9:25

trans by I skipped the crypto winter

9:27

where everything crashed is from 66,000

9:30

to 16,000 but this is a half hour

9:32

podcast so I'll just say it was a roller

9:34

coaster we went up to 66 down to 40 up

9:37

to 66 down to 16 back but uh and that's

9:41

all very colorful but the real point is

9:45

we're buying Bitcoin with Equity with

9:47

debt we're refinancing the debt we're

9:51

we're at all points generally we're

9:53

doing it in a creative way and we get to

9:57

2024 and um then discovered the value of

10:00

volatility I mean really understand it

10:03

because in January of 2024 Bitcoin isn't

10:05

an asset class and and the second week

10:08

the SEC approves those ETFs and then you

10:11

start having the snide comments like

10:13

well now we don't need micro strategy

10:15

anymore they're like just a proxy

10:16

they're like a you know a clumsy ETF

10:19

substitute we'll just put our money into

10:22

ETFs but what happened at the same time

10:25

was the having was coming and all of the

10:28

investors the ball Traders went through

10:31

a secular rotation and they started

10:33

selling the Bitcoin mining stocks and

10:35

looking for something else to

10:37

trade so if you track the liquidity in

10:40

the options market and in the equity

10:42

Market there was a major shift in q1 and

10:45

early Q2 where a lot of the the

10:48

volatility and the options Traders and

10:50

Equity Traders they basically hopped off

10:53

a dozen uh Bitcoin mining companies onto

10:57

micro strategy because the Bitcoin

10:59

miners were going to the having where

11:00

their revenues get cut in half so when

11:03

that happened our options interest

11:06

exploded and we became the number one

11:08

options Market when the SEC approved the

11:11

ETFs they didn't approve options okay so

11:15

uh today our options Market is like $95

11:18

billion our options Market is is the

11:20

same size as our market cap and then we

11:23

discovered that the real strategic

11:26

opportunity we had was we can

11:29

construct a a balance sheet of permanent

11:32

Capital with leverage and uh and when

11:36

you take Bitcoin and make it 100% of

11:39

your of your stock you're going to trade

11:43

probably if Bitcoin is trading with a 60

11:45

ball you're going to trade with a 75

11:47

ball just because of the uncertainty of

11:50

what the management team is going to do

11:51

like I have the option to sell Equity or

11:53

not sell Equity or we might do something

11:55

or not do something I have the option to

11:57

do debt or not do debt that opt option

12:00

is going to move you from 60 Vol to 70

12:02

or 80 Vol then if you actually execute

12:05

the option by selling Equity at a

12:07

premium or by issuing convertible bonds

12:10

you move to 90 or 100 Vol so all of a

12:13

sudden we had an equity trading with a

12:16

100 I think today it's like 120 ball

12:19

basically double uh Bitcoin equity and

12:22

now here's the big idea right uh the S&P

12:25

is 15 AR 15 ball Bitcoin is 60

12:29

60 ball it has been that way for four

12:32

years we take a company with permanent

12:35

capital and we create something which is

12:37

a 100 or 120

12:39

Vol 100 to 120

12:41

AR okay now that attracts all the

12:45

options Traders all the arbitragers all

12:47

the Bitcoin maximalists it becomes hot

12:50

money uh you you know the call rate if

12:54

you sell if you hold a dollar bill for

12:57

30 days you're getting uh s for 30

12:59

you're getting 480 basis points or

13:01

something like that if you hold a

13:03

million dollars with the S&P index for

13:05

30 days you can get like 15% interest by

13:09

selling the 30-day calls at the at the

13:11

market if you hold Bitcoin ibit for 30

13:15

days what you couldn't sell the options

13:17

until just recently but now you can sell

13:19

them in generate about 100% interest if

13:22

you sell the micro strategy call option

13:26

at the market it's 220% interest rate

13:30

okay just to hold the the the share um

13:34

and so all of a sudden what we've done

13:36

is we've created uh a levered uh a

13:40

levered flywheel on top of a product

13:43

which is already Forex as volatile and

13:46

Forex as performant as the

13:48

SNP the result is our liquidity explodes

13:51

our options interest exploded and we do

13:54

a convert bond in q1 a week later we do

13:58

another convert Bond that's the first

13:59

time in history anybody ever did two

14:01

convert bonds back to back two

14:03

consecutive weeks then we do another one

14:06

Q2 then we do another one in Q3 then we

14:09

do a billion dollars of ATM in Q3 and

14:13

then we start to get into a Groove and

14:15

we realize that at the end of the day

14:18

you know uh the Market's going to Rally

14:20

around some leader and you're either

14:22

going to lead in a decisive way or

14:25

you're going to sneak around and and

14:28

apologetic

14:30

be opportunistic or you're going to hide

14:33

and wait and so we just decided we're

14:35

going to lead I mean John D rockerfeller

14:37

decided to roll up the entire

14:39

petrochemical industry and he bought out

14:42

all of his competitors all of his

14:44

customers all of his vendors and first

14:47

he did it for for uh cash and he would

14:51

they would say okay well pay me this he

14:53

go to the bank he'd borrow the money and

14:54

he'd give him the cash and at some point

14:56

people in the industry said you know

14:59

Standard Oil stock is worth more money

15:01

than the cash and he just started

15:03

issuing the stock and Henry Flagler of

15:05

course built Florida with Standard Oil

15:08

stock and so there's this point in the

15:11

market where the market decides it trust

15:14

you and it wants to Rally behind you and

15:17

we got to the point in October 30th and

15:19

we just said look we're going to put the

15:21

question to our shareholders do you want

15:23

us to basically build this business or

15:26

not and after 40 consecutive Bitcoin

15:29

purchases after laying the foundation of

15:32

a Bitcoin you know development company

15:35

after actually rolling out the kpi of

15:37

BTC yield which is we just sold a

15:41

billion of equity it was back by 350

15:44

million in Bitcoin we bought back the

15:46

billion in Bitcoin we captured 650

15:48

million of the Arbitrage that works out

15:50

to 4% that 4% is like a a Bitcoin

15:54

dividend to the shareholders but we're

15:56

going to keep it on the balance sheet

15:58

roll it forward and reinvest it once we

16:02

constructed that model we just said look

16:04

we're going to issue $21 billion of

16:06

equity and we're going to issue $21

16:07

billion of fixed income whether it's

16:09

convertible bonds or preferred shares or

16:12

corporate bonds a and we're going to do

16:15

the per fixed income to say levered

16:17

we're going to do the equity when it's

16:18

in a massive premium to the underlying

16:21

assets to capture the yield and to

16:24

delever um if you want to get behind us

16:26

on that that's the plan we put put it

16:29

out there the next day stock trades up

16:31

we outperform every magnificent 7

16:33

company we outperform Bitcoin we

16:35

outperform every Bitcoin

16:37

company yeah so the shareholders spoke I

16:40

mean they by it's not a surprise to me I

16:43

was 95% certain they would like it

16:45

because I meet with them and they were

16:48

like this is the most brilliant thing

16:49

ever yeah just keep doing this so after

16:52

that you know we had a good week and

16:54

then November 5th came and uh there's a

16:56

red sweep and all of a sudden you have a

16:58

pro bit coin White House a pro Bitcoin

17:00

Senate a pro Bitcoin Congress Pro

17:02

Bitcoin cabinet Bitcoin rages from

17:05

68,000

17:08

999,000 the short of it is we raised 10

17:10

billion do in four years after our

17:13

initial announcement and that's like

17:15

progressively work and

17:17

learning you know we're learning and the

17:19

Market's learning to trust us right

17:21

we're building a relation my

17:23

relationship is not just with My Equity

17:25

investors it's with the convertible Bond

17:27

investors you you meet with a

17:29

convertible Bond investor say I saw you

17:31

last quarter I saw you you know you

17:32

yelled at me for this and this I fix

17:34

this I'll do this we're Partners

17:36

together I promise you I will do this

17:38

I'm not gonna I'm not gonna mess with

17:39

your opportunity I'm not gonna hedge it

17:42

I'm not gonna I'm not gonna steal your

17:43

trading opportunity I will do this and

17:46

this and this the guy goes well and and

17:48

I'm looking forward to this future the

17:50

go goes thank you for your

17:52

cander $500 million

17:55

order like if you have trust and people

17:59

understand you they'll give you your

18:01

money so what happened next is we raised

18:02

$ 13.5 billion dollar in four weeks and

18:06

I you know if you look at my

18:08

tweet my my tweet uh this morning is

18:11

basically yeah we generated about a 9

18:14

billion dollar plus gain for our

18:17

shareholders in those four weeks we're

18:18

making hundreds of millions of dollars a

18:20

day It's Tricky for conventional

18:23

investors to understand it because

18:25

you're not capturing shareholder value

18:27

creation a gap

18:30

accounting because for two reasons one

18:34

bitcoin's indefinite and tangible but

18:36

two in the history of 50 years of the

18:39

capital markets everybody's been on the

18:41

US dollar standard which is zero Vol

18:44

zero AR against the dollar and this is

18:47

the Bitcoin standard 60 ball 60 ARR

18:51

against the

18:52

dollar we don't have the math the

18:55

accounting to keep up with that in the

18:57

traditional system and that's why we

19:00

have to put forward things like a BTC

19:02

yield a BTC spread a BTC gain and those

19:06

that understand BTC they get it and

19:08

they're long and they love it and those

19:10

that don't understand BTC or don't

19:13

understand this or just aren't really

19:15

interested in putting in the work they

19:18

just think it's sham crazy and they're

19:19

just G to short it or they're just gonna

19:21

whatever so that's where we are today is

19:25

from desperation to opportunistic to

19:28

strategic

19:29

to to Identity at this point we're a

19:32

Bitcoin treasury company I'm on a

19:34

mission my mission is I'd like to see

19:37

the entire world recapitalize on bitcoin

19:41

every company every family every

19:43

individual every government I think it's

19:46

an economic protocol for Prosperity I

19:49

think it's as important as English or

19:52

fire or electricity or steel I just

19:55

think it's good technology it's a good

19:57

idea we're we're reaching the fun stage

20:00

the next four years I think are kind of

20:02

fun we get to we get to do a lot of

20:04

interesting things to help people M

20:07

Michael you know it's interesting um and

20:08

guy and I said this on fast money

20:10

earlier in the week also I I've never

20:12

I've been in the business for 26 27

20:14

years I've never seen anyone take this

20:16

sort of uh time to explain what they're

20:19

doing which seems somewhat

20:21

non-traditional if you're speaking to an

20:23

equity investor which you were back in

20:25

2022 when you were on our podcast then

20:28

you basically said some of the same

20:30

exact things that you just ended that

20:32

commentary with of like what you'd like

20:34

to see you know uh companies do what

20:37

you'd like to see households do and I

20:38

guess if they listen to you back then um

20:41

the outperformance relative to let's say

20:43

the mag 7 which you just described would

20:45

have been pretty astounding now you also

20:47

use the term traditional um investors

20:49

when I look at the holders of micr

20:52

strategy stock outside of you at almost

20:54

9 and a half% I see Capital group

20:56

Vanguard Morgan Stanley Jane Street

20:59

Black Rock and State Street now those

21:02

six or seven you know investors are

21:05

usually the largest investors in most of

21:07

the the S&P 100 we can agree on that

21:10

right so when you are speaking to them

21:12

about what you just described to us what

21:15

do they think the endgame is right

21:17

because a lot of investors have exposure

21:19

to this who don't really understand

21:21

everything that you just talked about so

21:23

what is the endgame when you listen to

21:25

an apple or Microsoft or any of the mag

21:27

7 they are lading out a 10-year plan how

21:29

they're investing their Capital where

21:31

they see you know I mean their business

21:33

going or the macro going so what do you

21:35

say to investors about what the endgame

21:37

is you just described what your plan is

21:39

right

21:40

now yeah I I think the endgame is to is

21:44

to securitize the entire asset class

21:47

securitize the asset class and and so

21:51

when we say we're a treasury company

21:53

what we mean is we're the institutional

21:56

bridge between a a high energy volatile

22:02

crypto commodity that thing we call

22:05

Bitcoin with 60 AR 60 volatility what

22:08

that means is it's it's always going to

22:11

be higher performance than the S&P index

22:14

it's always going to be more volatile

22:16

than the S&P index as it goes from a

22:19

trillion to 250 trillion as it merges

22:23

the S&P will adopt Bitcoin and their

22:26

performance will uh will drift toward it

22:29

and bitcoin's performance will drift

22:31

toward the

22:32

SNP but as long as we're sitting between

22:36

conventional Equity capital and this

22:39

crypto Capital we can Arbitrage the

22:42

difference and as long as we're sitting

22:45

between by 60 ARR 60 VA and the bond

22:50

market is six ARR sixf 55 so you have

22:56

fixed income which is 55

22:59

you have equity which is 1515 and the

23:02

traditional Market you have this raw

23:05

energy source which is 6060 in the

23:08

crypto economy which is 247 365 no one

23:12

can stop it Chinese Russians Africans

23:16

South Americans people can Panic sell 10

23:19

billion of it on Saturday night through

23:21

one of the 14,000 Exchange in the world

23:24

or 1400 so you've got this raw thing and

23:27

then you've got this traditional market

23:30

and what we've said to our investors and

23:32

I think they're starting to understand

23:33

now is so we're going to strip the

23:37

volatility strip the performance strip

23:40

the risk off of the bottom of the

23:42

capital structure give you a like a 6 to

23:46

12% investment grade instrument to

23:49

invest in a 12 to 24% high yield

23:53

instrument to invest in a convertible

23:56

investment that gives you 75 % of the

23:59

upside to 100% of The Upside but 10% of

24:02

downside and then when we strip those

24:06

performances and those WS via those

24:08

fixed income

24:10

instruments you're talking like say you

24:13

raise 100 billion in capital well you're

24:15

grabbing 60 to 65% of the economic boost

24:20

for the equity for the for the mstr

24:22

equity so when I sell a 100 billion of

24:25

fixed income I'm going to tax 60 billion

24:28

dollars of boost onto 40 billion of

24:31

equity on the MST side that's how we get

24:35

to 2x Bitcoin or two and a half or three

24:39

and of course the the real magic of the

24:42

story is the Baseline is Bitcoin is raw

24:46

commodity you either buy that on

24:47

coinbase or Bitcoin is wrapped you buy

24:51

ibit from Black Rock that's the Baseline

24:54

but it turns out most of the world

24:55

doesn't want that I mean a lot of the

24:58

world

24:59

wants high voltage they want 10x

25:02

leverage susano wants 10x leverage mum

25:07

Soros they want to be up there in the

25:09

stratosphere and then some people want

25:12

you know that the mstx mstu those those

25:15

two ETFs raiseed four billion dollars in

25:17

a matter of weeks no marketing they want

25:20

4X 3x Bitcoin micro strategy is one and

25:24

a half to 2x Bitcoin so some people want

25:26

to be up there above the base line look

25:29

if you believe in Bitcoin and someone

25:31

can give you 2x Bitcoin and they can do

25:34

it with with intelligent leverage or

25:36

with a balance sheet you trust why

25:38

wouldn't you want two times whatever you

25:40

want it right and then there's another

25:42

world of crypto curious people they're

25:45

just tired and bored like how do you

25:49

feel about a portfolio of 187

25:52

Diversified preferred stocks that give

25:53

you 520 basis points you know with and

25:57

it's like okay you on the 16th tranch of

25:59

a of the 18,000 Regional Bank and like

26:03

and it's like qip

26:05

99742 there's no

26:07

volatility you can't pledge it as cloud

26:10

or you can't borrow against it so

26:12

there's a world $300 trillion of board

26:15

money that's waiting to die getting two

26:19

three% and then there's another 200

26:21

trillion of hot money micro strategy is

26:24

just going to to sell all of those

26:27

instruments up and down the chain while

26:29

we ignore the Baseline and I just make

26:33

this one point like when you're when

26:35

you're arbitraging this you know you're

26:37

asking the question well how fast is it

26:39

appreciating so Bitcoin is plus 60 and

26:42

let's just say because it's plus 30 to

26:44

60 versus the US dollar and my long-term

26:47

forecast is 29% for 21 years so so we're

26:50

plus 30 to 60 then the next question is

26:53

how volatile is it versus the dollar

26:56

Bitcoin 60 volatile but you can imagine

26:59

it's going to be plus 30 to 60 more

27:01

volatile then you ask the question how

27:04

fast is the investment cycle if I borrow

27:07

a billion or or raise a billion of

27:10

equity and I invest it in a real estate

27:12

project it takes five years 1,500 days

27:17

if I invested in Bitcoin it takes one

27:20

day I'm running the investment cycle a

27:22

thousand times faster and then the last

27:25

question is how a creative is the

27:28

capital raise so if I'm selling it at

27:31

three times net asset value you're

27:34

capturing a 66% spread the convertible

27:37

bonds are capturing an 80% spread when

27:40

you sell a convert at an 80% spread and

27:43

you do a billion of it it literally

27:45

means that you captured 80 $800 million

27:49

of capital gain on the day you did it

27:52

and you capture all of the capital gain

27:55

for your shareholders Forever on the 800

27:58

million and so when you're raising 800

28:01

million and then you're investing it at

28:03

60% ARR or 30% right the amount of

28:07

accretion is screaming so what what are

28:11

we going to do well we're going to do

28:13

this 42 billion and then rinse and

28:16

repeat and double it and double it and

28:18

double it and double it and you're going

28:20

to say like well where do it end well I

28:23

guess when we've taken 1% of the fixed

28:26

income Market which is3 trillion

28:29

and when we levered it up and we've got

28:32

10 billion you know we bought three

28:34

trillion of Bitcoin and we're trading at

28:38

10 trillion dollars in market cap we'll

28:41

be growing 20% a year all right so that

28:44

I mean that's the end game right so

28:45

here's my question to you so you know

28:47

gold is extraordinarily mature market

28:50

and I'm going to round up here so gold

28:52

right now is an 18 trillion market cap

28:55

industry asset whatever you want to call

28:57

it Bitcoin today is about 2 trillion so

29:00

it's

29:01

11% where do you where should that ratio

29:04

be and then by giving us that ratio we

29:06

can back into a bitcoin price oh look I

29:09

mean bitcoin's going to go to 10x gold

29:11

easy just keep in mind right a public

29:15

company it's got to hold a commodity on

29:17

its balance sheet because it can't hold

29:20

Securities so you've either got a choice

29:22

of a digital commodity called Bitcoin

29:24

which is 60% ARR gold is seven

29:28

7% real estate is 10% bonds are five 4%

29:33

and and everything less than 15% doesn't

29:36

beat the cost of capital so the S&P sets

29:39

the hurdle so gold fails it's a treasury

29:43

asset for everybody in the world Bitcoin

29:45

succeeds I I think you could if you call

29:47

Bitcoin digital gold it's 10x gold but I

29:50

still think it undersells Bitcoin right

29:53

because Bitcoin is digital Capital it's

29:56

not just replacing gold it's going to

29:58

replace real estate the S&P index and

30:02

but any Capital asset held by an

30:05

institution or a wealthy family so right

30:08

now wealthy families and wealthy

30:11

families and

30:13

investors don't use bonds or gold as a

30:17

capital asset they would use the S&P

30:20

index or stocks as capital asset but uh

30:25

Banks and regulated corporations

30:28

operating companies aren't allowed to

30:30

use Securities as a capital asset

30:32

they're knocked down they don't want to

30:34

use gold it's not liquid enough and

30:37

fungible you know it's not liquid enough

30:39

and so they use real estate and you get

30:41

a Reit or real estate development

30:43

company but real estate is you know less

30:46

than the S&P index and not volatile if

30:48

you give up the AR and the volatility

30:51

S&P you're trading down so that's that's

30:53

not really a winner and then you're

30:55

stuck with bonds and bonds are dead

30:57

money a l ability so yeah I think bit

31:01

I've said before Bitcoin it should

31:02

reasonably become a a multi hundred

31:05

trillion dollar asset class right my

31:08

forecast is 13 million a coin by 2045

31:11

base case upside and downside I just

31:15

expect it's another way to say it is

31:17

it's 60% AR at 60 ball it's going to

31:21

track toward 20 20% AR and 20 ball when

31:25

bit when S&P is 1515 over 20 years it'll

31:29

just step down as it approaches that

31:32

Target okay so here you go so this is my

31:34

final question I promise so let's just

31:36

say pres president-elect Trump and his

31:40

cabinet members and the treasury

31:41

secretary all listening to this podcast

31:44

they just heard what Michael saor said

31:46

this is going to come completely out of

31:48

left field but what if they say wait a

31:50

second you know this is this is

31:52

basically property what if they say the

31:54

400,000 Bitcoin on your balance sheet

31:57

eminent domain Michael S are the best

31:59

interest of the United States for us to

32:02

have them that is that an existential

32:04

risk I mean it's happened before

32:06

thoughts on

32:07

that you know in a in a communist or

32:10

socialist state in Venezuela and North

32:12

Korea and Cuba they expropriate property

32:15

so if if a government becomes communist

32:18

or socialist then they're going to take

32:21

your property I suppose so it's an

32:23

existential threat but what I would say

32:26

to them is the smart thing to do is

32:29

think about money as bifurcated into

32:31

currency and capital and the US dollar

32:34

is destined to be the world's Reserve

32:36

currency and the smart thing to do is

32:38

just reg is just normalize stable coins

32:42

or digital currency and let Banks and

32:45

corporations issue US dollar stable coin

32:48

like tether and then that market will go

32:51

from 150 billion to 10 trillion and the

32:54

US dollar will become the medium

32:56

Exchange in North Korea South Korea Cuba

33:00

China Russia Africa South America and

33:04

probably most of Europe literally if you

33:06

want the dollar to become the world

33:07

Reserve currency and move between eight

33:10

billion people to speed of light on

33:11

Android phones it's easy to do just

33:14

normalize a digital currency with a

33:16

digital assets framework you will have

33:19

10 trillion dollars of demand for

33:21

treasury bills to back it and then I

33:24

would say acknowledge that the world

33:26

Capital Network right now is real estate

33:30

and equity and if you talk to any

33:33

billionaire no one is bragging about

33:35

holding all of their wealth in cash or

33:38

bonds it's real estate it's equity and

33:41

Bitcoin is the emerging World Reserve

33:44

Capital Network the most intelligent

33:47

thing you can do is just sell the gold

33:49

buy Bitcoin it's a free trade gold was a

33:53

good idea in the 19th century no one

33:56

thinks gold is going to be the capital

33:58

network of the 21st century so just

34:01

trade the gold for Bitcoin you'll have

34:03

25% of the Bitcoin Network you'll make

34:05

100 trillion dollars on the trade if you

34:07

don't want to trade the gold just issue

34:10

currency it's a little bit of money it's

34:12

free print money buy 25% of the Bitcoin

34:16

Network when the Chinese billionaires

34:18

the Russian billionaires the Europeans

34:20

when they all basically start buying

34:22

Bitcoin the big winner will be the

34:25

United States it's it's not more compli

34:27

licated then you can have Louisiana

34:30

California and Alaska for free by

34:33

writing a little paper check you know or

34:36

sell the past sell the stupid gold gold

34:39

is going to by the way gold is going the

34:42

way of silver which went the way of

34:43

glass beads which will go the way of

34:45

copper tokens which goes the way of the

34:47

giant Stone coin of the Yap people it's

34:50

going to be

34:52

demonetized because you can't zap a

34:55

billion dollars of gold from an Android

34:57

phone to iPhone in one Split Second it's

34:59

not complicated everybody's going to

35:01

figure it out so so I'm willing to

35:04

accept the existential risk of the

35:07

expropriation of my property if the

35:09

United States goes full on communist but

35:12

you can expect that I will agitate in

35:13

favor of capitalism between now and then

35:16

and I'm an optimist so I I I don't

35:20

dismiss the presence of evil in the

35:22

world you see North Korea you see Cuba

35:25

you see Venezuela there is evil it did

35:27

happen I just happen to believe that at

35:30

the end of the day Bitcoin is a force of

35:32

good and it's going to bring people back

35:35

from the brink and it's going to remind

35:37

them that maybe they should embrace

35:39

technology and freedom and capitalism

35:41

and property rights and and all of those

35:43

things that made America great all right

35:45

Michael one last one here I suspect

35:47

you're a Sci-Fi guy so here's the deal

35:50

if we reach artificial general

35:51

intelligence the AGI which I think a lot

35:54

of uh you know folks who are in the

35:56

Bitcoin uh think might do sooner than

35:58

later don't the machines take the

36:00

Bitcoin right out of the gate they won't

36:02

take it they will adopt it right you're

36:04

going to have billions of AIS and they

36:07

can't get bank accounts right and and by

36:10

the way the AIS are smarter than us and

36:13

so if you were an AI you wouldn't invest

36:15

in gold or silver or glass beads or

36:19

copper tokens and you wouldn't buy

36:21

Securities and you wouldn't buy real

36:23

estate right for not because it's hard

36:26

to buy it but by the way it is hard to

36:27

buy it they'll be blocked from the 20th

36:30

century economy no one's going to sell

36:31

the AI the house and they can't trade

36:33

bonds right so they'll be blocked from

36:36

the 20th century economy but the truth

36:38

is they'll look at it and they'll go

36:39

well don't we want to actually grab

36:42

billions of dollars of stuff that's

36:43

going to I'm going to grab five or 10%

36:46

of all the money in the world forever

36:48

that moves at the speed of light that's

36:49

in cyers space that no one could steal

36:51

from me why wouldn't you I mean I think

36:54

they're smarter than us and they're

36:55

faster than us so yeah uh Bitcoin will

36:58

be the reserve currency of cyberspace or

37:02

let me restate that before I get myself

37:03

trouble it's the reserve capital of

37:06

cyberspace if you're going to store your

37:08

Capital asset and as the AI accumulate

37:12

it uh they're just going to drive the

37:14

price through the roof and so if you're

37:16

a person the smart thing to do is front

37:19

run the AIS they're not going to steal

37:21

it from you they can't steal it they're

37:24

just going to trade

37:26

you pay

37:28

and rubles and real estate or whatever

37:30

else Services you want for your Bitcoin

37:33

and they're going to keep it because why

37:35

wouldn't you it's the smart thing to do

37:37

Michael saor the executive chairman of

37:40

micro strategies a Visionary clearly and

37:44

somebody as you know you think about

37:47

steadfast people that have had their

37:48

beliefs you know you mentioned

37:50

Rockefeller I mean there will be people

37:52

there will be books written about you

37:53

being this Century's Rockefeller so

37:56

Michael S your time is valuable we

37:58

appreciate it thank you so much for

37:59

joining us on the tape thanks for having

38:02

me guys always a pleasure

38:05

[Music]

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