Channeling Monetary Energy Across Time and Space | The Saylor Series | Episode 5 (WiM005)
WiM Media · 2020-12-23 · 2h 10m · View on YouTube →
they're dominating because they're able
to
deliver force faster
harder stronger smarter
so if we ask the question what is money
money is the highest form of energy that
human beings can channel
bitcoin is channeling human
ingenuity into making it
better and and every commodity
is channeling human energy into making
it
worse the lowbrow or the the
the historic colloquial term is total
right hold on for dear life or just
total or save whatever
and the highbrow term would be adopt as
a treasury reserve essay
[Music]
hey guys so as you learned uh by
watching the what is money show
bitcoin is the single most important
asset you can own in the world today
and so this begs the question which i'm
often asked how does one build
their bitcoin position and the strategy
really is simple
i suggest first you decide on an initial
portfolio percentage allocation
and target portfolio percentage
allocation go ahead and establish
the initial position or the one-time buy
and then start dollar cost averaging
towards your target portfolio
percentage and you can also complement
this
by buying bitcoin price dips to further
increase that position and reduce your
cost basis
and finally i suggest to everyone to
take
custody of their bitcoin to move all
their bitcoin into self-sovereign
custody because again bitcoin left on
exchange is not bitcoin it's a bitcoin
iou
and for those of you living in the us
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uh approximately 0.99 per year
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alright thanks
hey guys welcome to episode five of
the sailor series here on the what is
money show uh
super excited for this one this is
episode two
of us getting into bitcoin theory um
and just things are starting to really
heat up and get interesting at this
point
so it's a big episode i don't want to
waste a lot of time here i'm just going
to run through a few of the topics
uh that we'll be hearing today if you
haven't checked out episodes one through
four
yet i suggest that you do because a lot
of the foundation that we've been
building upon up until this point
uh really starts to throw off uh some
good energy here so
today we're going to talk about money as
power uh
also talking about one of my favorite
ways to describe money is as an
insurance policy on the uncertainty
or the entropy of the future
and then we'll also be looking at debt
and how it's actually a form of
anti-anti-energy excuse me
and then sailor delivers a really
interesting take
on fiat currency and that it's a way of
politically toxifying money um and he
draws some really interesting analogies
there that i think you're gonna like
and then we're gonna deliver a thought
experiment that i think
is a really simple way of clarifying the
value proposition of bitcoin
and its superiority as a store value in
comparison to all other assets
uh maybe something you can use in your
own uh arguments with pre-corners
and then we're going to talk about some
lessons of history um
and how essentially the most organized
group of people tend to win out
we're going to look at store value
versus medium of exchange in terms of
monetary functionality
we're going to look at the utility of
money and how that intends to drive
its market value we're also going to
look at the productivity of market
participants in a monetary network and
how that drives market value
and then finally we're going to look at
bitcoin as
you know what i've argued in past and
what we get into a bit here is
american is a i'm sorry bitcoin is
an american technology now i do not mean
america the nation state like it was
invented in america i mean the idea of
america
the principles of free market capitalism
bitcoin positively embodies them
and say they're not getting into a
unique discussion on that topic
and then we'll look at and compare and
contrast
the nature of fiat currency inflation
and bitcoin appreciation and see how
they're sort of polar opposite
forces and then we conclude by diving
into
some philosophy and we're talking a bit
about truth
and how bitcoin uh relates to truth
and and uh civilization's relationship
the truth so
big episode today excited for you guys
to see this let's jump in
we're talking about
about bitcoin the as the first digital
monetary network and
and um
i'm positing this uh this uh
thought experiment i have a hundred
million dollar
block of energy i i can generate a
hundred million dollars worth of energy
through
chemical processes kinetic gravitational
electrical atomic power
let's just assume that i did some amount
of work
in order to generate that energy i
converted that energy into money
money is the highest form of energy now
i've got a hundred million dollar block
of money
you can do a lot with a hundred million
dollars it equates to about three
thousand
pounds worth of gold it converts to a
hundred million dollars of currency and
it converts to
you know we could do the calculation in
bitcoin ten
thousand bitcoin right or
a little bit less than ten thousand
bitcoin i guess
at this point in time and now
now i want to do two things with it i
want to channel it through time
and i want to channel it through
space the beauty of bitcoin channeling
through time
is that there really is no loss over
time
there's no inflation you've only got the
21 million bitcoin so as a ratio to the
21 million
it's infinitely hard and
and so that's a big check and and uh
if we contrast it to gold and fiat
you're going to lose 99.5
of your energy in fiat you're going to
lose
98 of your energy in gold
you're going to keep all your energy in
bitcoin so
clearly channeling energy through time
is important
and and it's critical channeling it
through space
really refers to not just moving it
around the world but it means moving it
across domains as well
but from counterparty to counterparty
and uh
we can see the inefficiencies of fiat
counterparty to counterparty is your
you're locked into nine to five banking
hours you can't
do big transactions on a saturday
you're there are certain jurisdictions
where you can't do transactions at all
you're always working through a
counterparty which is its own risk
and um of course if we go to gold
fiat is faster but it's it's still got
complexities and the gold is slower it's
going to take a month to physically
deliver
gold and so super slow super expensive
and so neither fiat nor
gold make nearly so much sense for
channeling energy through time and space
i think that the best metaphor when i
think about this is
it it's like i want to cross from london
to new york city
and i need to cross the atlantic and
that's the journey
and if i'm gonna do it with fiat
currency it's like
a rubber raft with a leak in it maybe a
big rubber raft
and it's got a leak in it and i'm gonna
be continually
blowing up that raft every day
to keep it from sinking on me and i'm
going to get battered this way in that
way but it
it's a it's a bit of a venture on the
other hand with gold
it's like getting in a wooden ship and
it's
it's going to rot over the course of
many many years but maybe for the first
few
two three four five years compared to
the rubber raft
i feel pretty good but it's a heavy ship
you know wood is heavier than rubber so
it's kind of harder to get going and
it's harder to maneuver it but it's a
bit
more solid but ultimately it's organic
and it's going to decay
and then if i put it into a
a crypto container a bitcoin
it's like a steel vessel i have a steel
hole
a steel hole container ship really is
the best metaphor
thousand feet long 60 feet wide moves 30
knots
the thing that's special about steel is
steel is indestructible
as long as you maintain it
the maintenance means you have to keep
it from corroding
it can be attacked by a corrosion and
the way you maintain is you paint it
you sand it down every five to ten years
you repaint it
if you maintain it it will last longer
than you will last in fact
it's it will last essentially forever
hundreds of years
if you punch a hole in a steel hole
and then you weld it the weld is
stronger than the original steel
so it is an indestructible extremely
strong
repairable uh element and uh
it doesn't take a rocket scientist to
figure out that
if you're going to actually engage in
commerce all around the world you want a
bunch of steel container ships
you do not want wooden ships and you
certainly don't want
inflatables and that that's the
distinction
and that's why bitcoin is really such an
extraordinary
invention you know we talked about
getting out of the gravity well
the other metaphor is i have a hundred
million dollars worth of energy
if i can get it into a vacuum and vacuum
seal it
it's like vacuums when we want to keep
food forever we vacuum seal the food
we want to keep bacteria from attacking
it we want to
we want to keep natural parasites and
pathogens
from attacking our energy
and so the way that you protect your
food energy and stabilize it forever
is you vacuum seal it
and uh the way you protect your monetary
energy
from parasites and from decay
and from rotting is you vacuum seal it
and uh that is the genius
of bitcoin when i say the destiny of
money
is to be encrypted it's like
it's like vacuum sealing your food it's
you're taking monetary
energy in fiat that can decay
debase diffuse
and you're encrypting it in
in an encrypted container such that no
one else can touch it no one else can
screw with it
and uh when you think about
you think about all these miners these
miners are power
plants they're plugged into analog
energy
but they're modulating the analog
energy the physical energy the pure
energy through the sha
256 protocol to make it
a wall of encrypted energy
if not a cloud of encrypted energy and
and the rails of encrypted energy if you
want to pass
through that if you want to attack that
you have to go through that
wall of shaw 256 encrypted energy
and uh and all of our monetary energy
is protected and floating in the cloud
behind that wall
right and it's a fairly unique wall
right and and that's the the majesty
of bitcoin right already the most
powerful computing network in the world
we've never had something
as cryptographically secure as the
bitcoin network it's already
in its early stages already the most
powerful computing network humanity has
ever seen with still a lot of room to
grow
yeah and that and i guess that takes us
to our next
interesting question which is so how big
can the bitcoin network get
and how how is that how is it going to
absorb more power
i'm i'm measuring money is power by the
way the cliche
money is power right money
it's not a cliche it's a deep
reality money is the highest form
of power the super set of all power
every kinetic energy i can take bows and
arrows and guns club you to death and
take your money
or take your value with a war i can
convert kinetic energy
into power atomic energy into power
chemical energy i can burn and create
power right
gravitational energy like damn a river
and crate right and ultimately that
power becomes
money so but i can't do the uh
maybe i can do that i can take the money
and i convert it back into other things
but
but money is this amalgam of all powers
you know that mankind has managed to
collect
yes and so the question really is
how big how much money how much power
can flow into bitcoin
and uh there's a lot of debate in the
community for example the most famous
model is the stock to flow model right
and
and a lot of bitcoins talk about stock
to flow and it's like well
as bitcoin gets harder its price is
going up
well i mean the power in the network is
directly proportional to the price
because it's equal to 21 million
times the price right that's the power
in the network
you can almost look think of it as a
voltage or something too
the higher the voltage the more energy
passes through
electrical network so i see the price as
the voltage
and um i i think that
um that stock to flow
is is an interesting uh it's an
interesting trans
what is a transcendental model
where our particular model as we're
moving through a short period
early history of bitcoin where the
the rate of block rewards is falling
dramatically
but i think that as you look toward the
future of the chain as it asymptotically
goes to 21 million
and as the block rewards uh go to zero
and the entire network flips over to
transaction fees
then you start to think well that's just
because it's hard that's not going to
explain why it's valuable
it's it's hard to you know to synthesize
polonium or uranium but it's really hard
to create steel
really like steel power plants if the
steel overflows
it hits the concrete it blows up kills
everybody
it's hard to deal with nitroglycerin
there's a lot of hard things
in the world and there's some things
that are nearly impossible
i will probably never walk on the sun
impossible
but the impossibility of something
doesn't make it valuable what makes it
valuable
is is some other dynamics and i i have a
simple model
my and i tweeted this model the other
day i think
i i think the the success of bitcoin and
the network
power ultimately is a function of the
adoption
the utility the productivity and the
inflation
those four and they're they're big grand
concepts they're vectors they're not
like one number they're
ideas but the adoption
idea is a monetary network is going to
be as big
as as uh the amount of of assets
or the amount of asset holders that
adopted as their primary treasury
reserve
asset so for example if
a million people with a hundred dollars
each
decide to hold their hundred dollars and
they put a hundred million dollars into
bitcoin
the bitcoin network's worth a hundred
million dollars
if a company with a hundred million
dollars
decides to hold their hundred million in
bitcoin they're gonna and
the the lowbrow or the the
the historic colloquial term is total
right hold on for dear life or just
total or save whatever
and the highbrow term would be adopt as
a treasury reserve asset
same thing yeah if i'm filing an sec
statement i would say
as the treasury reserve asset and it was
if i was
just a bitcoin maximalist i loved it and
i got i was i'm huddling
yeah they're the same and that's why i
love the huddlers
that's why they're they're my people i
love them
right they're holy but and they and they
figured out before i figured it out
and i gave them credit they figured it
out and that's a genius
right but i'm not too proud to learn
right some some other you got to believe
if i lived a million years ago and some
dude comes out with fire
i like i'm not like i'm not the guy who
said i'm not doing that that wasn't my
idea
yeah yeah yeah yeah can i borrow some of
that fire sir
and thank you right thank you for
bringing life to me
so adoption the number of
individuals and the number of entities
that adopt
bitcoin as a treasury reserve asset not
measured in numbers
measured in monetary energy and you know
in whatever u.s dollar equivalents but
they're converting their fiat
euros yen pesos dollars
the total us dollar amount of
fiat that is converted into bitcoin for
the purposes
of holding as a treasury reserve asset
like
you see the the traders the speculators
they're short-term interesting but over
the long term
they don't really have any value to the
network right
someone that's going to to buy a million
of bitcoin today
and sell it tomorrow they're not going
to drive
network energy because they're going to
rob the network of energy
as fast as they fed the network they are
mercenaries
right you know the roman empire was
built on citizen
soldiers willing to fight and die to
protect what they believed in
at the point that you're hiring
mercenaries to fight
and not die as long as you pay them
your empire's over right right
so citizen the hodlers people that adopt
bitcoin is a treasury reserve asset
they're citizens
of bitcoin they're citizens and
the more if you decide it's 20 of your
treasury reserves
like this is it's a matter of faith it's
like how committed are you
if you're really committed like say
microstrategy you know
i had 500 million dollars worth of money
i didn't need
i had two choices i can buy the stock
back or buy bitcoin with it
well i bought as much stock back as the
as the shareholders wanted
to sell to us because that was the
appropriate respectful thing to do
right tender offer and then whatever's
left
we convert right the treasury is our
reserve
asset which is our reserve energy is our
life force
right treasury is life force you know
it's not
it's not unlike fat fat is nature's
organic battery
you carry 30 pounds of fat that means
you'll probably be able to live an extra
60 to 90 days without food when the
going gets tough
right no oh and so it's an organic
battery
a treasury is an organic battery or it's
it's a monetary battery for a family
an individual a company or country
right you have no treasury you're going
to die
very quickly you know when the crisis
hits
right you're going to be solvent in some
ways
through an economics lens we would i
often describe this as
cash a cash balance whatever you're
holding it in is basically an insurance
policy
on the uncertainty of the future right
because this cash
balance or this treasury reserve gives
you pure optionality in the marketplace
you're best able to contend with
unforeseen developments
right um and another thing just to jump
back to the
the power and money relationship
i think it's very uh interesting to look
at it
power through the physics definition
physics defines power
as work over time right which that's
what gold was it was reflective of our
collective work
over time and it was a claim on that
work over time in the form of capital
and the other thing you're drawing the
analogy to the vacuum ceiling to protect
it from parasites
i work we could all agree that work is
kind of the opposite of theft
right you don't create any value by
theft you just steal the value of others
work
and that's essentially what inflation is
so
money uh being power there's a big
incentive
to store it in a medium that is as much
protected from theft as possible
and i think that's that's getting to the
core value proposition of what bitcoin
represents
[Music]
yeah that is definitely the pro the the
proposition right it's
it's an an encrypted
energy crucible in which we store
the precious energy of life and
and we're we're insulating it via an
encrypted vacuum layer from all the
things that would bleed off
or steal that heat right heat you know
steal the heat steal the energy
right be it a political a political
exchange
or or just just uh physical right there
are a lot of ways to lose the energy of
life
you know and uh bitcoin solves that
problem
um now how do we get energy into the
system
right yeah there are a lot of metaphors
for heat exchange and
if you look at closed systems a closed
system and thermodynamics
is um is
mass cannot leave or enter only heat
so let's assume that 21 million bitcoin
is the mass
it cannot leave or enter heat can come
um if i'm buying bitcoin
at a price higher than the rolling
the rolling three year average or the
rolling 200 week average
i'm heating it up and if i'm selling it
at a price
lower than the rolling average
for whatever time frame you care about
let's say that four years
is your time reference frame if i'm
selling it
at a price lower than the 200 week
moving average
i'm cooling it down so
people see bitcoin trading day to day
and they're like oh it's lower than
yesterday that's not what i see
i see it if it's trading at 10 000 and
the 200
week rolling average was 7 000
i see it heating up i see it i
i see it as capacitor gathering
energy right and that's a very it's a
important uh way to think of it
now we come back to this issue of
adoption you can adopt bitcoin
with varying degrees of commitment this
it's like a adopt it's like joining a
religion right it's like
so i adopt bitcoin as my treasury
reserve asset
and then do i commit fifty percent
of my reserves to it or one percent
or 99 or 100 percent what is the true
adoption rate how much do you really
believe it is it a hedge
is it a one percent hedge all our paul
tudor jones
or is it a is it a 100 commitment
a la michael saylor right i said no
hedge
no speculation 100 commitment
just by the way just like your body is
100 committed to storing excess energy
and fat
100 commitment right there's no other
thing
uh you know i like your analogy of an
insurance policy
except that i would say an and
all powerful insurance policy with no
caveats because the problem with most
insurance policies is
i have an insurance policy on my
restaurant
but it doesn't cover pandemics
and so on like have you noticed how many
insurance policies are not paying off
in the pandemic because there's a car
valve
well we only insure against a
you know only if this happens and that
that happens and if you didn't do this
and if nobody said that and if the
government didn't do this
then in that case i will give you some
money right
if you were driving your car and you
were drunk i don't pay
the policy if you were sober i paid the
policy
unless someone says that you were
erratic and i don't pay the policy
where and so that's the problem by the
way with buying an insurance policy
yeah if i if i have a hundred million
dollars of energy
and i buy a million dollar insurance
policy that pays off 100 million
if it pays off well that's cheap and i
get to take the 99 million and buy
something else with it
but it's but i've assumed risk i've
taken a counterparty risk
in order to get the insurance policy
you could say you could say that a
hundred million dollars of bitcoin in
your treasury
is an insurance policy with no
counterparty risk
this i think brings up a very deep point
i actually tweeted about this today
there's a quote from carl schmidt that
says
he who gets to decide the exception
is sovereign right so there's rules that
we're all abiding by our protocols but
whoever gets to make exceptions to those
rules or protocol it really has the
power
to act as they see fit in the world
because they get to bend the rules right
and that's what is so deeply profound
about bitcoin is that it is a set of
rules that we cannot break it is an
exception
proof money supply and it's
unlike anything we've ever had and by by
eliminating that attack vector such that
any group
could be sovereign over the money it
it effectively makes everyone
individually
maximally sovereign and that's one of
the great breakthroughs
of bitcoin and that's why it should be a
treasury reserve asset
if you look at the the corruption
and the decimation the destruction in
our society
and the devastation in our economy there
are two
there are two things that everyone fears
individual bankruptcy
and corporate insolvency right
becoming insolvent as an individual or
as an entity
so how many times you've heard the story
that was a really good company but they
but they took on too much debt
and they couldn't make their interest
and they were broken up and
they closed their factories and they
moved away and
now we're eating i know manufactured
slop
from a machine because our favorite
vendor got destroyed
right there a lot of companies that get
destroyed how does it happen
well they're inve they have treasuries
in fiat the fiat's inflating
so the cfo thinks well i can't afford to
invest this
it's not politically acceptable to
invest in uh
stocks or equity that keeps up with
inflation
if i invest in bonds i can't keep up
with inflation
and so i start borrowing buying my stock
back
and i borrow money to buy my stock back
so they
if i have 100 million dollars in
treasury
and i borrow 100 million
and then i buy back 150 million worth of
stock
i get the stock up but now
my treasury is net
minus a hun you know what is it i got 50
million in cash
so i minus 50 million in that treasury
instead of plus 100 million right
right so i went from having a positive
a positive position it's like
you have enough fat to live for 30 days
without food
to a negative position you have no fat
you're in debt and there's a banker
that clicks on a feed you button every
day and if the banker decides to pull
the plug
on your credit line you're instantly
eviscerated
exactly and so so a company in debt
with no liquid assets has no energy it's
an energy debt
right so what that means is
maybe you generate a hundred million
dollars in cash flow a year
and you've got 500 million in debt and
or a billion in debt and you need 90
million of it as ebitda to cover the
covenants
that means you have a 10 million dollar
cushion that means you have a 2 million
a quarter cushion that means that in any
given quarter
if you were short three million dollars
on a 500 million
number that three million dollars kicks
you into default
on your debt and renders you potentially
it renders your capital worthless
right drive your equity to zero and it
can render you insolvent
and the creditor can take control you
lose your sovereignty the creditor takes
control of your company you lose
everything
that's right you lose ever by the way
it's the same
as i go on to an exchange and i'm
trading at 50 to 1 leverage or 101
leverage
the idea that i'm going to pledge one
bitcoin
and get control of 100 bitcoin and if it
goes down by 100 bucks
i'm going to be utterly wiped out it's a
pretty
silly idea i would not recommend it to
anybody other than an
addicted gambler you you literally
if your goal is i'm okay losing all of
this and that's just like going to vegas
or going to bitcoinville
if that's the what you want to do then
call it a gambling habit
but there's nothing rational about it
the leverage
the leverage could be thought of as
every entity
be it a government or a corporation is
draining their life energy
pouring it out right when you flip from
being
from having a positive treasury to a
negative treasury
i have drained my entity of my life
force and i'm living at the pleasure
of my creditors wherever and whoever
they may be or my counterparties i've
lost my sovereignty
absolutely and individuals do it too
right corporations do individuals do
absolutely and i think
you're plucking the threat of how the
incentive
schema related to fiat currency
fragilizes
the economy right in a systemic fashion
because to your point
there's no adequate store of value so
people are
forced into at the individual and
corporate level are forced into
the use of leverage right the assumption
of debt because the the
real debt load is actually eroding via
inflation over time so there's an
incentive to take on debt
but this is a very short-sighted
strategy because now
you are hyper exposed to the inherent
volatility of the future right so once
there's any form of shock
right covet or any other form of
economic shock you can go to zero
immediately and get wiped out
versus holding cash makes you
anti-fragile right you can absorb these
shocks you can actually capitalize on
these shocks
such that if price if things get priced
lower in the market
you can go and acquire things at a
discount
and in a simple world if you if you had
cash
that was non-inflationary if the
if if the politicians uh adopted
austrian economics and said we're going
to print cash with zero inflation
then this then it's simple for the
citizens of the society to save in cash
and and you want deflation and the cash
will actually be worth more
over time right and that's what jeff
booth puts up
points out but every technologist knows
this if there was no inflation
the cash would buy more over time right
and
and my entire simple monetary
uh strategy would be save cash
and over time i'll improve but in a
currency war
the political system declares war on the
currency
and makes the cash toxic and if it's two
percent toxic
that's like a that's like injecting a
mild
a mild drug into your veins when it
becomes 10
toxic is like a poison in your veins
when it becomes 20 toxic this is like
basically saying i'm going to put you on
chemotherapy
but actually it's like putting a healthy
person on chemotherapy
and i pump toxic chemicals through a
healthy
person's bloodstream because current
right current is is like like
blood current it's carrying the energy
of life the oxygen oxygen
is energy right your blood carries
energy to keep you alive
currency is carrying energy if a
sovereign nation
is injecting massive inflation
is into its own currency it's injecting
a toxicity
into its own circulatory system and it's
somewhere between
either one metaphors chemotherapy
another metaphor would be diabetes
type 2 diabetes i'm injecting so much
sugar
so much sugar into your system that your
you know your
insulin response is failing you know
and you're becoming insulin resistant
and your body becomes diabetic
and i inject i give you metabolic
disease because
i am just pumping the liquidity
or pumping that too hard into the
currency
which is the blood of life which is
possibly where we are today right i mean
the stimulative
responses by central banks don't seem to
be having the same effect
as they used to right yeah arguably like
if i pump enough sugar into your body
you become diabetic first and then the
pancreas fails and the liver fails
and you have organ failure cancer and
death
that's that's a that's what happens if
you if you overdose on pure sugar
right um i guess the equivalent
would be hyperinflation if i if i inject
enough of like
enough money money in this system
that the currency loses all of its
energy carrying
like oxygen carrying capability energy
carrying capability i just lose it
all at that point the organ failure is
now how do i buy electricity
how do i buy food right how do i get on
a bus
like all the transit systems the food
systems
how do i pay soldiers and policemen and
firemen that's
death of the society that happens in
hyper hyper inflation
that's a great point the other you said
it loses its energy carrying capacity
and it's also there's a connection here
to information right because the price
signals become totally
disrupted like the money means nothing
in that in that instance
so capital is not being allocated
efficiently whatsoever
because price is complete you completely
lose this economic
nerve signal that we call the price
signal so it's losing its energy
carrying capacity it's information
carrying capacity
and you end up with cash in the streets
like we have in venezuela today
the phrase the phrase toxic shock
comes to mind toxic shock of the
toxic shock of the system but let's move
back to our happy subject
how did the bitcoin energy network grow
well
adoption so a million people
adopt it as their 90 treasury reserve
asset and they have a million dollars
each
and now you've got a million
times a thousand is a billion a million
times a million
is a trillion right so
a million millions gets you to a
trillion
in the network they put the money in the
network and
and the network is the syndication of
all of the
energy all of the treasury energy of the
people that choose to adopt it as their
primary treasury reserve
so when a million people put a million
dollars in
it's a trillion dollar network when a
thousand
companies put a billion dollars in
it's another trillion network
so now you're up to two trillion when
when a hundred companies put
a billion in right or or a hundred
billion in
right you you go the next level so
as individuals families
com private companies public companies
government agencies
small governments mid-size you know
municipalities states
small countries mid-size companies big
countries
all the non-profit organizations right
as they adopt
this as their treasury reserve asset
they don't need to adopt it as their
currency medium exchange they don't need
to adopt it as a unit of measure
it's as it becomes their store of value
their treasury reserve
asset as they adopt it the network
syndicates all their energy you know and
the decision
of apple to buy a hundred billion worth
of it
would be would accrue to the benefit of
a million hodlers
that bought a hundred thousand each or a
million each or fifty thousand whatever
they bought
the beauty of it is that everybody is
pro
rata para pursue benefiting right and
it's in everybody's interest
to bring everybody else in right that's
right and uh and it's a network effect
right that as someone comes in someone
else comes in the price moves up
the people that were in it get get a
benefit
that and now we get to this next dynamic
right
but with me pausing to say without
adoption
right without people believing that this
should be their treasury reserve asset
without that you have nothing right so
right so it's not enough to say it's
just hard
you have to people have to love bitcoin
more than they love
gold silver apple stock amazon facebook
whatever
and by the way we didn't touch on it
much but
if we consider you know bitcoin as a
energy network versus facebook as an
energy network
or apple as an energy network the issue
there is i gotta look out a hundred
years and say well i'd be able to put a
hundred million dollars in apple stock
hold it for 100 years
and what's my exposure and of course
your exposure is
income tax on the company sales tax on
their product
tariff exchanges regulatory
interaction income tax on
their employees all sorts of other taxes
you know you can come up with plus plus
any other regulatory action including
and likely being the ultimate
regulation of these things as public
utilities
right because if they weren't regulated
as public utilities the richest guy in
every city would be the guy that owned
the electrical power plant
and that guy would be richer than jeff
bezos or bill gates right
the only reason that these guys are rich
is because they're in a new novel
unregulated
area that was not deemed to be important
and the problem is as soon as it is
deemed to be important enough that you
can't
live without it then it becomes a
god-given right
to have access to your youtube or to
your iphone or to your whatever
and now this is the entire value
proposition
differs i mean we live in a society
right now where people think
equity is like a perfect store of value
what they don't realize is
it's possible for the equity to go to
zero
the equity for example a nationalized
power station has zero equity it still
works
when stuff gets nationalized be it be it
education
power electricity technology the equity
goes to zero
you can have something with the equity
zero and the debt has value
you can have something where the equity
has no value
the the debt has no value but the
underlying vendors are getting paid
yeah i mean it can shift back and forth
it's a political thing
right so so with regard to
to uh bitcoin right and the value of the
network it comes down to people
making the commitment to adopt it as
their treasury reserve asset at all
levels and and no one
i would it's just as good for us if
norway adopts it
for their for their treasury reserve as
it is is
some big charity as it is the
rockefeller foundation
or the hughes institute or harvard or
stanford or mit
or for a private company or a public
company
you know or an agency of the government
maybe um you know the county
you know that you live in or a city you
live in or the fire department or a
union or a pension fund
and then there's all the investors right
hedge funds pension funds
insurance companies right all there are
a lot of entities that have
monetary energy they either need it to
operate
or they've stored it up in trust for for
for their shareholders or for future
generations
etc so as that energy flows
the network strengthens now that's the
first order dynamic
it's simple network effect we're
syndicating our power
no different by the way than let's say
that there's a hundred of us on a
football field
and you organize 50 people to be on your
tug of war team
and i can only get five on mine and the
rest are all singletons
your team wins right if there's a lesson
of history by the way
the lesson of history is the most
organized
team always wins right the reason the
romans kicked everybody's ass for
nearly a thousand years is they were the
most organized
right even that when they put their
petty differences aside
for 700 years they beat everybody else
right and then when they started
fighting with each other there's a decay
and eventually
they when they were disorganized that
dis organization
causes a deterioration in power
so it's the most organized that wins it
doesn't matter whether you're in eighth
grade
football or in high school or whether
you're in college or whatever it is
organization is always critical
and i think i think you're pointing to
another strength of the bitcoin network
here
and also debunking what i would call the
alternative narrative
that money needs to be adopted as a
medium of exchange
to proliferate as a network right
you you do have to hold or adopt it as a
treasury reserve asset
in an economic sense to create
reservation demand
for that asset you're taking that asset
off the market you're reducing its
supply
thereby increasing its price and that's
what
creates the the bootstrapping effect i
guess of this monetization
process and that that again harkens back
to this evolutionary path where you have
it
as a store value first after it's
accreted enough value
it can be used as a medium of exchange
because those early holders
have more of an incentive to use it as a
medium of exchange
and then finally once it's widely
accepted enough it's being used as a
unit of account
so i think that really and to your point
about organization
holders are all perfectly aligned to 21
million
right it's just the energy efficient
strategy is to just hold
it's very simple hard to disrupt hard to
disorganize because there's not a lot of
activity on part of the holder
so it seems like an indomitable strategy
in the market for money
that's why that's why if you understood
bitcoin
you would never say something so silly
as i know when to buy it i know and to
sell it and i just
trade the people that are trading in it
don't really understand it because they
understood it
they would just buy it and hold it and
then sometimes people think they're
accomplishing something but they're
accomplishing not that much
like if a hundred a hundred entities buy
a billion each
then the value of the network's gonna go
up by a hundred by more than a hundred
billion dollars and if they just buy it
and park it in a cyber vault and don't
touch it for a hundred years
it doesn't matter it's going up right
it's
that the the the fact that they poured
their energy
into the container is actually what
caused the energy network to grow the
moving in and out
is actually wasting and dissipating
energy you know you're
you're just dissipating energy to come
and go
and um and and ultimately
the success of the thing is what
we've got i hear these people they talk
about uh store value medium exchange
well
bitcoin is a high frequency store of
value and a low
frequency medium of exchange right
that's what it needs to be and
technically that's what it is
and and if you understand that once you
get it you realize you shouldn't
fight that so for example i buy a
billion dollars of bitcoin
every second every second
it keeps anybody from stealing my
bitcoin
every second it's storing the value no
government no parasite
no thief no hacker is taking my billion
dollars
so every second for the next million
years it's working
i you know in the same way that i put
that energy into a vacuum package and
every second it's staying vacuum sealed
and the whole point was to live forever
and so if i gave you a little crypto
feel that made you
live forever and never age you would say
high frequency longevity device it works
pretty well
and you wouldn't have a problem there's
nothing wrong with
living forever it's immortal energy
so that's high frequency the problem is
people don't recognize
that every second of the day they're
being attacked
you are being attacked by the way every
second of the day there's bacteria and
there's viruses trying to kill you
if i said i'm going to spin up a field
that stops them from killing you it's
going to work a million years and you're
not going to notice it
you would think that's a pretty good
trick but that's in fact what happens
when you actually store value now low
frequency medium of exchange in order
for bitcoin to have its anti-fragile
properties
we and for it to have utility we have to
be able to move it
on occasion maybe once a year i move it
from one
one cyber crypto bank to another one or
one cyber evol to another one or once a
decade
or maybe when i'm gonna die i need to
transfer
it to somebody or split it between my
daughter and my son or maybe not maybe i
just have one key and i give it to
my one child they give it to their one
child they give it to their one child
and it never gets transferred but
but um maybe once a year
i have to take five percent of my
bitcoin
out of my vault convert it to fiat
and then break that into a hundred
thousand little parts and put it on
apple pay
and use it to pay for uber's and
domino's pizza and
credit card bills okay once a year
i take out i take a chunk out of my
piggy bank
my crypto bank and i put it into fiat
and i do whatever i'm gonna do with it
right maybe
and by and maybe if i
if the world works the way you think it
might work i just put a hundred million
dollars into the vault
i never take it out i just borrow
against it and i
bar you know like i just borrow three
million a year one million a year
tax-free i don't recognize income
i don't generate a capital gain tax i
don't generate any operating income
tax i i don't if i borrow money in cash
and if my if my bitcoin is going up 20
a year if that's the real yield and i
can borrow money at five percent
then my effective our arbitrage is 15
so it never makes sense to sell it ever
right
in fact in fact if you look at people
that use real estate as a store of value
the way it works is
my family buys a block in manhattan for
a hundred million dollars
or they buy it for 10 million dollars in
1900 it goes up eight percent a year
it doubles every 10 years it's worth 20
million then 40 million than 80 million
and then
160 million and by the time you get out
80 years you got a billion dollars worth
of real estate in manhattan
you're not selling it you haven't done
one transaction
in a hundred years all you've done is
pledged it is collateral against the
loan and you borrowed 42 million dollars
against it and you're paying three
percent interest
and that 42 million dollars that's not
income
you didn't pay 40 tax on 40 million
dollars in income
that's not a capital gain it's not a
long-term capital gain it's not a
short-term capital gain
it's a liability you've generated 42
million dollars of liabilities against a
non-taxed
asset the only way it's getting taxes
you're just you're suffering from real
estate taxes right
but but you can see if you if you're in
a jurisdiction
where inflation is high real estate tax
is low
interest is low then your secret
to living well forever tax-free
it's just borrow against your stationary
assets and so you know and that's that's
the news and the
that's the news of this week right
donald trump has 400 million in debt and
paid no taxes for a decade
right but he's not unique you know you
could substitute
every real estate magnate generational
a family that had generational wealth
and real estate
they all did it yeah all of them
like that's you know how do rich people
live well and pay no taxes not by
selling stuff
right not by transacting stuff the way
that they actually live
is they just park an asset on the
balance sheet
and they never ever ever ever trade it
they just finance it or bar against it
and then once in a blue moon
once a decade somebody wants to pay me
triple what it's worth
and maybe i do it but oftentimes you
know
the warren buffett school of thought is
the taxes kill you
and so the ideal holding period for an
asset is forever
right and it's not just you know he says
it's forever
because like i'm committed to it yeah
but it's the taxes
that murder you and so the ideal holding
period is forever because then you can
pledge it
and borrow against it and how do you get
rich
you buy an asset it goes up you borrow
against it to buy another asset
and it goes up your buyer gets to buy
another asset and it goes up
and pretty soon you know you've
generated all these assets that are
highly appreciated with massive built-in
capital gains that you're never ever
going to recognize
obviously that can change in different
jurisdictions of the politicians decide
they're just going to tax you on
unrealized capital gains but
let me ask you how do you balance that
with the the
not becoming fragilized by leverage is
it just kind of a
threshold that you would keep you'd
never borrow more than say 10
of the value of the collateral something
to that effect is that how you protect
yourself
the fragility comes from uh
two primary metrics uh collateral
coverage
and uh and the um and the mark the
market
the the frequency of the loan the
duration of the loan
how frequently is is the collateral
marked to market
so for example if you borrow money to
buy a house and it's a 30-year mortgage
and if the bank says to you they're
never going to market
tomorrow they're never going to mark it
down right there are some loans like a
mortgage loan where they'll never get
marked down
they might get marked up you can go to
the bank and you can petition them
to revalue your loan but nobody ever
went to the bank and said
uh mark my house to the market after the
real estate market crashed
right sure yeah so if you buy a million
dollar house with a
with a 800 000 loan right
and you've got 800 000 in debt and it's
it's never marked the market then
there's not that much fragility as long
as you can make the
25 000 a year interest payment
assume i mean three percent right so
that's not that risky
i mean a little bit risky you can't make
25 000 you lose it but but
on the margin if i didn't have the
million bucks or i didn't have the 800
000 and someone's going to give me the
800 000
house for free and all you do is pay 25
000 a year
i think that's pretty good trade-off and
the worst that happens is
they take the house back and i go do it
again somewhere else
so that's not very fragile how does it
get fragile it's fragile when you buy a
million dollar house
and um and you pledge um
well actually it's fragile when you buy
a million dollars with the stock
on 800 000 alone you know
and you've got loan to value of 80
percent and now
the stock trades down 20 percent right
and the stock trades down 20 and the
banker marks the loan
marks the collateral every day and
if you're in a swap uh with a bank uh
they will market to market every day
every single day they calculate the
value of collateral and
if you're under that you have to wire
them the money the next day and if
you're over
they they in theory have to wire you the
money and you have to market the market
every day that's risky and and
and of course so if you are going to buy
stock if you're going to buy a 100 stock
you probably don't want to borrow more
than 50 percent but
but if you borrow 50 you you damn well
better
think that the volatility is not going
to be 50 right right
you can't afford it so probably
in that case if you thought the
volatility was to could lose half its
value you want to borrow no more than 25
percent
if you want to be able to hold the stock
even if it loses 80 of the value you
can't borrow more than 20 percent loan
to value right
right so
the the big risk the hyper risk is like
one of these bitcoin exchanges i go 101
leverage and i mark the market
every hour right what if i mark the
market every minute robert
right i mean that's the bitmex
liquidations right i basically
bought a hundred bitcoin i pledge one
bitcoin
it gets mark the market every minute and
if the price goes down a hundred dollars
i get wiped out and there's a crash
and uh and it happens in three seconds
so that's risky yeah if you
if you want to take the opposite point
of view i have uh
i have a hundred bitcoin and i'm gonna
borrow
the equivalent of one bitcoin in value
or 10 bitcoin in value
and as long as it doesn't go more than
90 percent down
i'm good but if you wanted to save for
one you would say
i'm going to borrow against the
collateral but i want you to agree that
you won't ever market the market
um that's what real estate loans are
right or like or you know
a bank uh i'm going to loan you money
against your artwork
or against uh your boat or against some
other
some other interesting collectible and
every year
our our um appraiser is going to
reappraise it
or every five years right so
it's the the issue is the frequency of
the appraisal
right complying with the volatility
of the asset combined with the political
regime you're in combined with the
loan to value if you're in a political
regime where
where it's unacceptable to let real
estate values
go down then you can reasonably
expect that it's not likely your house
is going to be worth 20 of what you
bought it for because the politicians
won't let that happen
but they might not protect your picasso
painting
but so if i borrowed money against
picasso painting
you know i might and the banker said
we're going to market the market every
month that's not as
good as once a decade right
so so when you're thinking about risk
you're thinking about
how liquid is the collateral and how
frequent
is the mark to market and then how much
is the loan to value
and and that's how you you get to a
a question of risk and what you should
do or not do
that makes sense i'm not saying you have
to do it by the way
you know you could just sell the bitcoin
highly appreciated for cash paid
tax and take zero risk and and
you know look if if the interest rate
was 18
and you like and you thought that um
the economy was gonna grow at four
percent or three percent
then you would sell and you would take
on the debt so
it's a function of of uh interest rates
as well
and uh and productivity and let's go
back to this issue of
our our our power equation adoption
utility productivity inflation we talked
about adoption
and my point there was you're just
syndicating
if the world is static in a static world
where there's um
a trillion dollars of assets if you get
a 100 billion on the network
then that's better than 10 and 500
billion is better than 100
and in a static world it's just all
about recruiting
and getting people to join the network
but the world is not
strictly speaking static the next
next thing is is dynamic and technology
is what makes it dynamic and that's
where utility comes in
so if i can take bitcoin and i can buy
it from square
cash it's got more utility if i can
send it as twenty 22. if i can send it
from square cash if square will convert
my bitcoin
into dollars and send it in a split
second it's got more utility
if apple computer builds it into apple
pay
and i can link a small wallet with
one percent of my bitcoin into apple pay
and i can zap that around on my iphone
it's got more utility
if if a bank if kraken creates a crypto
bank
and they offer me four percent interest
and they'll offer it to me with
institutional
low-risk counterparty and they and they
represent to me
that they've got 100 billion dollars of
insurance
and i can give them my crypto wallet and
i get four percent interest on and are
six and i trust them
the utility just went up again
right and uh bitcoin becomes more
valuable
if if i get to the point where
where i can tie i can manage my crypto
keys
you know using my retina scanner face id
and give speech instructions and i can
say
send robert 37 in cash
you know of my crypto and if it always
works
and i did it i just did it right
and it's more secure than hardware key
and i don't have to remember my 12 seed
key or whatever
and i don't have to have it whatever and
it never work never fails
utility went up right
but if i can say robert if i can say
uh uh maybe i got a girlfriend uh lisa
i say send lisa flowers on her birthday
every year for the next decade click
and it's jacked into my crypto utility
went up right there's a lot of ways
utility can go
up right if buying stuff selling stuff
etc it's all a function of technology if
the lightning network
works you know and yeah in the ideal
world back to back to my example
i have x money ten million dollars i
have a hundred million
or i have a hundred thousand in my uh
checking account
i say move a hundred thousand in
checking leave the rest in the
in the bank yielding seven percent
interest tie my checking
account into apple pay link that
to my uber account my sister's uber
account my domino's account
and use it to pay off netflix google
this that and the other thing
and pledge it you know as trusted
collateral
on some dating network to show that i'm
a real person
and then use it oh yeah and
automatically pay all my fees on my
domain registrations every year when
they come due
there i just said it i just did it
that's utility that's right that's it
that's so connected
to productivity right you're just you're
it's enabling you to accomplish
greater results with the same or less
efforts so the utility is a reflection
of your productivity
and that that's a great segue to to
element three
of of the network power and that's
productivity
well we have a million hodlers and they
put a million
dollars each into the network and now
and now we have a trillion dollars
in the network adopting it as your
primary treasury reserve asset means
sweeping
your excess cash flows into bitcoin
so those million people put a million
each but how much money they make each
year and how much do they save each year
so let's say they they uh make a hundred
thousand a year
and they save ten thousand a year so ten
thousand times a million
10 billion right so in that case
10 billion in fiat gets converted into
bitcoin
every year that's the productivity
if they all get a raise to next year
it'll be 11 billion next year it'll be
12 billion
if they all start their own business
their next year will be 30 billion
if the economy is growing and they're
inventing cool stuff
and one of them becomes the next michael
or bill gates or whatever that person's
going to put in
100 you know billion or 50 billion right
if you if you get lucky and winning
toddlers is jeff bezos
and he's going to put in 37 billion so
the productivity of the individuals
is going to sweep cash flows into the
network and the same is true with the
productivity of the corporations
so microstrategy we put 500 million
into a network we make 50 million a year
if we generate 50 million a year
after tax we sweep that into the
treasury
right and do that 10 years in a row our
initial 500 million is going to become
500 million more of discounted cash flow
right so now we're just back to some
basic finance theory
what's the value of the stock it's equal
to the cash
the the balance sheet cash value
plus the discounted value of the
discounting of the cash flows
the discounted value of the cash flows
over time so
the treasury that gets put in is the
initial slug
and the discounted value of the cash
flows of all the people in the network
is the next value proposition of course
this kind of dovetails nicely with
economic theory because
if the overall worldwide economy is flat
and not growing
then the cash flows are not going to
grow if the overall economy
tanks and goes and and starts to
deteriorate the cash flows will
deteriorate
if i destroy the economy cash flows are
going to zero
no value will accrete and if i invent an
atomic over thruster that gives you
infinite energy in a sugar cube
presumably
you know productivity is going to go
through the roof and cash flows are
going to go through the roof
so ultimately we're getting a bunch of
people to join the network
and then the our fates all of our fates
are intertwined
with all of our productivities we've
created a cyber economy
just like warren buffett said never
never bet against the united states
the united states was a 20th century
physical economy and every business in
it was working to the benefit of every
other business in a competitive
capitalist darwinian ecosystem
well now we're actually creating a cyber
economy where you can be in a
relationship with
anybody else to the extent that
that robert you adopt as a hodler
and i adopt as a corporate treasurer if
i'm successful
you benefit if you're successful
i benefit right obviously
if we can get apple computer to put 100
billion in
and then sweep 50 billion a year
we all benefit right and when a country
does it
they benefit and of course if the people
that join the network
are more responsible right if if they
actually are productive
and they save more than they spend or
they
earn more revenue than they spend in
cost
then the network grows and if they spend
more in revenue
flip it the other way a million hodlers
all of a sudden save their money
and then they start going crazy and
partying and quit their jobs and buy
lambos and
blow it all on champagne and gambling
they start drawing down their balances
in the bitcoin network and they sell
their bitcoin for
fiat and if they're selling it for fiat
they're draining the energy out of the
network
right right so the network is going to
accrete
with virtuous economic behavior and
debase and dilute with vices
i i love the example that you use of the
united states
as being this darwinian economic
ecosystem
of value creation because it was indeed
kind of it was the place in the world
with the lowest impediments to free
trade
that actually led to america creating
the most wealth and the most capital
right
and in many ways i think bitcoin
positively embodies a lot of the the
founding principles
of we would say american free market
capitalism right
you have inviolable property rights
in bitcoin uh which which in the
american ecosystem are actually
marginally disrespected through
quantitative easing and fiat currency
printing
there's a rule of law here so in the us
so we have non-violent dispute
resolution and enforcement of contract
law
uh and clearly the bitcoin network is
you know the most
adept network at reaching global
consensus we've ever created
and then kind of from the first two uh
honest money or hard money
would be something else that a real
capitalist system puts out
so it's it's almost as if america
as an experiment was the closest thing
to pure capitalism we had
prior to bitcoin because again the
nation state always gives into that
temptation to violate the money supply
and thereby violate the private property
rights of its citizens
you know robert uh you jog my memory or
drug my thoughts
i've described bitcoin as a swarm of
cyber
hornets behind a wall of encrypted
energy
well the united states
is a swarm of military assets a navy
army and air force behind a wall of
water
right you know the insulation is the
pacific ocean the atlantic ocean
three thousand miles of water you had to
go through the navy the army and the air
force
and that protected
a bunch of capitalists a bunch of
entrepreneurs
work you know in service of the goddess
of
of wisdom in this case in service of the
american way
right the american business is pursuing
the american dream
unhindered by interruption
because they're behind a wall of water
but you know you know you go to you go
to poland
they're good people too right i've been
there
i have a lot of polish employees they're
brilliant
between russia and germany you know
sometimes you know again trotsky's point
you may not be interested in war but war
is interested in you it's kind of hard
to go about your business
when people are rolling over you with
tanks this way
that way and and uh
the equivalent of that in a monetary
system or
an energy system is when someone's
stealing your energy
right okay how do i keep my coffee warm
i put it in a thermos i need to
insulate my energy so that no one steals
it
if i if i take your starbucks coffee and
i put it in a
cooler of ice and i drop it in the ice
your coffee is getting cold
right right and so the wall of encrypted
energy is the insulator the wall of
water
is the insulator the insulation is the
insulator the vacuum
is the insulator if you want if you want
a crucible
of of um virtuous innovation
you need that vessel that serves as the
insulator
against all the forces that would attack
it from without
or interfere with that process
and um you know and that's yeah that is
bitcoin
right we're creating that and
and having said all that right adoption
utility
productivity those three things create
that
monetary chemical reaction
of sorts and the last piece is inflation
but inflation is almost just the way
that we translate
the energy it's the translation
coefficient of the energy
into a frame of reference
of of the dimensionality or the domain
where i'm spending it
i mean i'm gonna have to translate my
monetary energy into rubles
or pesos or dollars or euros
or yen if i cross into one of those
domains
because it's their world not our world
right
right so if uh if the dollar didn't
inflate
then would bitcoin go up if the united
states had a
perfect monetary policy no inflation
could bitcoin succeed yeah it could
succeed
if people adopt it because it's got
technical advantages right
if they adopt it as a reserve asset i
mean their choice is that versus stock
versus bonds versus property
you still have the issue of how do i how
do i commute
energy through time and space so
i would still adopt it technology would
still get better
i mean if there was no inflation you
would still like the iphone
you know you would still like zooming to
me if there was no inflation
technology would get better and we'd
have productivity we'd be inventing
stuff
fusion better materials
etc and when we created stuff like
zooming
and we put together zoom with youtube we
would talk
and somebody go up on youtube and a
hundred thousand people would see it and
three people would have an idea and
something would happen that wouldn't
have happened otherwise
you don't need inflation for
bitcoin to be successful any more than
you need it for google or
apple or amazon to be successful it just
happens that that uh
in an inflationary environment it it
accelerates two percent
inflation will grow it two percent
faster
ten percent inflation will grow at ten
percent faster
in theory if a bond is is pure energy
and if bonds are inflating at 20
then that means that bitcoin will have a
20
real yield in that currency where you
see that
energy inflation and it'll be different
rel relative to the frame of reference
of every single
domain or every country depending upon
how they choose to manage their currency
they could in theory right i can peg to
the dollar like in singapore
or uae i paid to the dollar i could peg
the gold
i you know if i peg the gold
it'll be a three four percent
differential if i peg to
to the dollar it could be a 10 15
differential if i peg to the peso
it could be a 32 differential right so
all of
the value of bitcoin relative to the
people
in the ecosystem and the domain will
vary right and of course
that's why if i'm in lebanon or
argentina
this is even more insanely valuable to
me
than if i'm in switzerland
absolutely i would just maybe add that
two percent inflation would increase
adoption say by two percent but
as you increase the inflation rate i
think it would actually be non-linear
because if you take the extreme example
of hyperinflation
like everyone would pile out of their
currency into the dollar or to bitcoin
something that was more reliable
such that as you increase from say 2
to 10 people's inflation expectations
actually increase
which gives them further incentive to
move into bitcoin or something
alternative
it's it's multi-variant non-linear
and it's one dynamic is
hype hyperinflation panics people do it
high inflation pushes them into it low
inflation encourage them into it
but we're marking the value of the
bitcoin
to all the assets the tangible assets
all the products and services
and assets in the domain which is being
inflated
and that's also having an impact a frame
of reference
impact sorry so so the frame of
reference changes literally when it's
a million dollars for a cup of coffee
right
bitcoin is going to be worth a billion
dollars right
right right that's yeah that is the
number go up technology right
so so it becomes
it becomes powerful in that regard so
each of these four effects i i haven't
written them out as a formula
equation if i was writing i'd be writing
f of adoption
f function of utility function of
productivity
because in fact they're all vectors that
are all
time dynamically varying across many
dimensions each of these is a general
idea and they all
they all convolve with one another
in order to drive network power but when
you take them all into
all into effect then uh
then you just realize bitcoin is this
energy network
it's gonna gather energy and
as as people
perceive it they will adopt it
the utility is as people adopt it
they'll want to integrate it with more
utility
it's as as they do that
it's it's natural he we can expect human
productivity will increase
we can expect technology to advance if
we only have point one percent adoption
it's like having all of the gas in one
percent of the chamber and i take away
the barrier you can expect it well
it's not getting less the genie is out
of the bottle the genie is going to
expand
and then you know betting on
some governments to inflate is is not a
highly risky bet you can yeah
that's a good bet probably you'll get
that and
that is that is uh
you know bitcoin network power dynamic
right that is the dynamic there and and
everybody
everybody that's marketing bitcoin
they're contributing to it
everyone working on bitcoin technology
isn't contributing to it
everyone simply holding bitcoins
contributing to it
everybody that hates it or everybody
everybody attacking every
other asset or every time another asset
fails or another currency weakens it
contributes to it
and then just the relentless passage of
time contributes to it
i think this is a brilliant way and
unique way
to look at the network effects of
bitcoin um
and i also find it interesting that at
the center of this vortex
is the highest expression of truth we've
ever had right it
bitcoin is literally this system of
converting energy into indisputable
truth
about who owns what utx owes and the 21
million again
is kind of like the third certainty in
life we've had historically had death
and taxes
and now in the socio-economic sphere at
least we have this number
21 million we know that can't be
violated and that's what's spurring all
these effects
bitcoin is a cyber economy
based upon the principles of truth
respecting the laws of thermodynamics
respecting
newton's laws you know if
if you're going to worship the goddess
of energy you better
respect the laws of conservation of
energy and and it is that
conservative monetary energy system
the first conservative
monetary energy system that we've ever
invented
anybody can choose to be a member any
individual any family
any company any government can choose to
be a member
of this closed energy system
and conservative energy is truth it
starts with this simple principle energy
can be
neither created nor destroyed
it's like it might by the way you can
lose control of it
right you have it you can lose control
of it and it can dissipate and
and you can you can lose it and so that
doesn't mean you can be
lazy or sloppy you have to channel the
energy
but bitcoin is the best system in the
history of the world for controlling
storing and channeling
energy and that's why it's destined to
be successful
i i love i i've never heard it put like
that the conservative energy is
truth that ties it back to how we
started this conversation
of the eagle dragging the goat off the
cliff side right it's
employing the least energy necessary to
accomplish the greatest result
and that's what you want to bet on that
is the winning strategy on what you want
to bet
and it points towards the kernel of all
economics
which is scarcity gives things market
value
scarcity is the driver of market value
things that are hard to obtain
and have utility are what give them
value in the marketplace
the ultimate scarce asset in the
universe
is energy yes you can't create more of
it
right i give this much to you you can't
wiggle your fingers and make it twice as
much right
if you lose it it's gone yeah
and and you can play all these games in
thermodynamics it's a great profes it's
a great
field because everybody think they're
all looking for that perpetual motion
machine you know and
and they could you know the laws of the
thermodynamics you know
we used to paraphrase them you know at
mit in a snarky way we'd say
you can't win you can't break even and
you can't get out of the game
the laws of thermodynamics it's like
from a layman's point of view
you can't cheat there is no cheating
in thermodynamics it might look like you
got something for nothing
even maxwell's demon you know he he
paused well
maybe maybe i could actually
fight a reverse entropy and get order
from disorder by dividing a chamber and
i have a demon and there's a little door
and
molecules are bouncing around and what
if my demon opened the door when the
molecule bounced from the right to the
left and closed it before the door
bounced from the left to the right i
could over time with randomness get all
of the bouncy molecules on one side of
the chamber
and i could uh reduce entropy
well and they're like it couldn't figure
out that they called it maxwell's demon
well
what's wrong with that argument like
doesn't that break the law of
thermodynamics
and the answer came along a hundred
years later with some ibm computer
scientists pointed out
that information is building up in the
head of the demon
and and the information you know
is in itself creating entropy and so
oh you're not cheating once you actually
account for all the information in the
system
and all the disorder in the system
and all the energy in the system it did
it did
respect the laws of thermodynamics
you can't cheat time you can't cheat
space
i mean there is ultimately conservation
and
isaac newton right all of newton's laws
conservation of mass conservation of
energy f equals m a
it's it's the basics of physics the
basis of mechanics
it's the basis of every machine we built
that works
right right it's the basis of of all of
our heat exchange and
and um it hasn't
been i mean scientists and engineers
don't have a high opinion of economists
and
one of the reasons why is it it hasn't
been important
for economists to understand closed
systems
isolated systems you know servo
mechanisms
you know conservation of mass and energy
equals mc
equals mc matters what it means is if
there's
mass it becomes exponentially expensive
to move it around
e is the energy you want to move stuff
fast you need to take the mass to zero
and that's how you move stuff fast so
you know economists maybe maybe what
they were doing
didn't matter before bitcoin like right
you could just say maybe bitcoin is the
first time that
technology crashed
into a economic you have you have energy
you have technology you have math
crashing into economics and now you
couldn't really be a competent economist
without appreciating closed systems
energy efficiency
of you know everything right
another thing this calls to mind and
maybe a unique way to look at bitcoin
we can't break the laws of
thermodynamics
those are the rules of the game within
which we are operating
in physical reality and bitcoin in a way
maps onto that system very nicely
because it gives us an economic system
in which we cannot break the laws right
it
critically respects and aligns itself
with the laws of thermodynamics in the
economic sphere
and another thing this made me think of
was
this is a framework i got from you on
inflation was that
you know cpi is low but everything you
want is inflating
rapidly and it's almost as the i guess
you could probably plot that on the
spectrum as the things that are more
energy intensive to create
are inflating more rapidly right and the
things that are created easily
are tweaked and controlled and dumped
into that cpi bucket
because because the laws of
thermodynamics apply
even if you don't wish they did right
yeah you can't get out of the game
no free lunch in the universe right
[Music]
all right guys that was episode 5
of the sailor series and man what a
big episode we hit on some major
concepts
today um i thought it was super
interesting as always
mr sailor brings the heat uh i think
first of all we talked about how fiat
currency
was basically implemented
as a means of augmenting the portability
of gold right because
gold is heavy and physical it's
difficult and expensive to transact it
across space
although gold is really good at holding
its value across time
because it had a high relative scarcity
and but the point there
that that say brought up is that
although fiat's good at moving
or we could say gold-backed paper
currencies are good at moving value
across
space right that was their purpose of
introduction that they actually
suffer because they they have all of
these frictions between different
regulatory and intermediary
environments such that when you try and
move
cash say from china to the us uh you hit
different types
of capital controls and whatnot so it
can be very
expensive and cumbersome to actually
move fiat currency across
uh different jurisdictional domains
which which actually inhibits
its original purpose which was to
increase the portability of money
and i like the analogy he drew
with uh a boat right actually
if you consider that the moving value
across space
function of money uh is something like
uh putting goods on a boat putting uh
selling it across the sea
he's saying that effectively uh
that you know gold was a dinghy
very uh unlikely to move value across
space well whereas fiat currency might
be something more like a wooden
ship uh a little bit better at doing
that but still
not ideal whereas bitcoin is actually
like a steel
ship uh you know it's it's an extremely
strong protocol
uh and as long as you you know you
maintain steel by painting it
it's basically indestructible so the
analogy there being
so long as bitcoin is maintained by the
mining network
right which is um which generates its
revenues through
the block subsidy and transaction fees
that it essentially
makes the the monetary network itself uh
you know self-reinforcing
and indestructible in a lot of ways and
then
the last analogy that steel's super
repairable right if you weld
a steel plate onto the whole of the ship
the weld actually has a higher
uh tensile strength than the original
steel itself
which i think we can analogize to
bitcoin is that it can
absorb superior competitive features
from the marketplace so it can actually
repair or improve
itself in a way that makes it even
stronger than its virtual form
so that was a great analogy and the
other one i liked that we touched on was
the vacuum sealing of food
which if you think about it is just a
way of restricting
the stored energy whether it's food or
money
from contact with entropy of the
environment right so in the case of
vacuum sealing we're removing all of the
air
all the microorganisms that might exist
in that air or water or moisture
from the package itself such that none
of them can attack the energy content
stored therein
and the analogy there being
getting the entropy or uncertainty out
of the monetary channel
we can think of the sha 256 algorithm as
an um a an encrypted valve
uh encrypted vacuum ceiling of the
monetary energy stored in the bitcoin
network
so it gives it this super high
resistance to impurities
uh or uncertainty or um
nefarious actors right or even even um
that doesn't have to be nefarious
necessarily uh depending on your
perspective on social banks but it gets
the uncertainty
out of your money right it gives it this
energetic vacuum sale so i thought that
was a really
cool analogy too and we talked about
money being power and the money itself
is the super
of all power that humans have been able
to create in the world
and again the physics definition which i
really like
for power because it ties back to the
importance of proof of work
power is the capacity to do work over
time
right so to to be able to apply force
over distance over time that's what
uh power actually means and
it makes sense that we would generate
power or be able to um
allocate energy into a power source
network through proof of work
right that's what gold mining was and
that's what the mining expenditure
related to bitcoin is
and so we think of money as this amalgam
of all the powers that human beings have
had over time
uh and look at bitcoin through that lens
we see that
the power in the network uh which was
another analogy used was kind of like
the voltage in a closed source system
right so
the supply of bitcoin doesn't move
but the amount of energy stored in the
network can be is the only thing that
can be increased
so it's a perfectly closed system that
uh
mass can either exit or leave but only
energy can be added to it
and so that way we can think of uh the
power of the energy of the bitcoin
energy network as its price effectively
and we dug in a little bit of that and
it's talked about you know the stock the
flow model and bitcoin supply issuance
it's not actually to supply that's
driving the value
necessarily uh as we go into later that
it's more uh
function of its utility but
uh this because it's not as i said the
impossibility
to produce something is not what makes
it valuable
it's actually the impossibility of
producing something that already has
relevance to someone's goal directed
action right that's so so value is this
subjective
uh quality where if a particular
object or even a service or piece of
knowledge
is relevant to you accomplishing the
aims of your goal directed out
action if it's an accelerant for you
towards achieving your goals
then we could say that thing has value
now the value even if something has an
accelerant towards you achieving your
aims
say like oxygen right we all have the
aim of breathing and surviving
it doesn't actually have a lot of value
because it has no scarcity
right so the scarcity can amplify the
value but the value itself
is actually a function of its the in the
individual good service or knowledge is
relevance to your goal directed action
and uh so that we
we actually looked at this like to put
in these buckets of what actually
defines the monetary network value of
bitcoin
and he classified it as adoption
inflation
utility um
and i love this quote he said that
bitcoin is quote an encrypted energy
crucible in which we store the energy of
life so we've touched on repeatedly in
the show that
money is life force right it's meta
energy that allows us to access
essentially any other form of energy
that's available in the marketplace
[Music]
and in that way it's we
need a system that
maps onto the scarcity of the thing that
it represents
that makes sense so when thermodynamics
energy can neither be created or
destroyed
so it makes sense that the money which
best maps on to that would become
naturally selected in the marketplace
and then went into another definition of
money this is one i've used
several times i say that money is an
insurance policy on the uncertainty
of the future right the interracial
uncertainty of the future no matter how
much technology advances we're never
going to get rid of uncertainty
um and uncertainty itself by the way is
another expression of entropy
right and we live in a universe pervaded
by entropy
and in fact entropy is the only thing
that defines the flow of time in the
universe
everything all physical processes are
symmetric but
the one thing that imparts a
directionality to time
is this flow of entropy things becoming
increasingly
uh uncertain or breaking down or more
chaotic
over time left unmaintained
and so money since it gives us
pure optionality in the marketplace it's
like no matter what unforeseen
consequence we encounter
money is the best tool for dealing with
that uncertainty because it gives us a
claim
on the collective savings of the world
so we can access
whatever it is we may need assuming it's
available to marketplace to resolve that
uncertainty
when we encounter it and sailor made a
good
uh caveat to this analogy because he
said that
one thing about an insurance policy is
that it carries a lot of counterparty
risk
so even today you know we're sitting in
2020 with this global pandemic
striking there's many many insurance
policies
are not being paid out because they had
exclusion exclusions for pandemic or
other
you know forced major i think as they
call a lot of them
and so we could say that bitcoin is
actually even more valuable than just a
standard insurance policy in that it's a
non-counterparty
insurance policy right it's a money that
does not have any political exposure
um to to pay out right so if you
if you're holding cash in a form that
can't be
confiscated inflated stopped
then no matter what uh eventuality you
encounter no matter what circumstances
you encounter
in dealing with the uncertainties of
life you have a pool of pure capital
optionality basically with bitcoin
and that cannot be said for any other
asset there is no other money that can
provide you
that degree of assurance and so
when this is i mentioned that quote that
this is from carl schmidt that
sovereign is he who decides the
exception
so this is really important because by
totally removing
the counterparty risks from money
bitcoin has
removed all exceptions from money or the
monetary policy if you will
and by doing that right you've taken
away the ability to make exceptions
in in the game of bitcoin so
all of a sudden sovereign is he who
makes the exception if no one can make
the exception
then no one's sovereign right so there's
no sovereign over participants in the
network
which means you've maximized the
individual sovereignty of
all network participants and this is
something that's really radical like you
really have to think about this for a
long time
and again we could define sovereignty
somewhat simply as just the authority to
act as one sees fit
right the ability to conduct an action
consistent with your purpose and aims
and bitcoin is the only money in history
that maximizes our ability to do that
so as i argue actually one of my latest
pieces bitcoin and hope
that bitcoin is money purpose built for
entrepreneurship
right it maximizes not only their
sovereignty but also their
accountability
uh and their ability to engage in
adventure right and to engage in
business dealings and
taking on risk to try and solve problems
for for the market
and generally value the process so
i thought that was a really interesting
way to look at it and then we got into
debt
and i love this the way he described
debt as almost an anti-energy where
you've actually instead of having this
capital cushion against uncertainty
that debt actually can amplify
the the negative consequences of
encountering uncertainty now it can also
be used to enhance the positive
consequences right that's what leverage
is it will amplify your gains or losses
but it tends to be a poor strategy over
time because
the one thing that's unavoidable in an
entropic universe is volatility
so it makes volatility
you know positive volatility more
beneficial but it can make negative
volatility
it can cause you total destruction right
it puts you at risk of ruin which
uh if you've read any of telugu's work
is just you know the number one thing we
almost avoid
so we got into some specific examples of
how
fiat currency it's actually it's because
it's
depreciating over time and large
corporations
have access to really cheap loans it's
actually incentivizing them
to take negative treasury positions
right to borrow money
on the market at low rates and buy back
their own stock because they
because again you would expect that the
scarcity of that stock
and the performance of the underlying
capital would tend to outperform the
borrowing costs
in a market where uh the cost of
of of borrowing is suppressed by central
banks effectively
so this puts corporations in a weird
position because it's causing
the incentive structure is such that it
causes them to fragilize their own
business model
into instead of having a positive
buffer against uncertainty in their
treasury they actually carry negative
treasury balances which can make them
subject to their creditors right the
wishes of their creditors which
again sovereign is he who makes the
exception so all of a sudden
by uh marginalizing your own capital
position
and putting yourself in the hands of
creditors you've now you've now
given away your sovereignty if you will
to a creditor and and
taking it away from yourself and your
shareholders
so i thought that was brilliant as well
and then we went into
the politics of currency and this is
this is another way to look at the
importance of bitcoin is that
you know people for years have talked
about getting the money out of politics
right if you get the money in politics
that would make for a more fair
equitable system but
bitcoin sort of flipped out on its head
and said for you're getting money out of
politics right
that would require legislating away
human nature
somehow just in a way that's not
possible what we can do instead
with bitcoin is just get politics out of
money right all of a sudden we have a
money that
can't be manipulated or confiscated
based on political will
and say there's analogy here is that
politics actually
toxify the currency and we could think
of
quantitative easing or monetary
inflation is actually like putting in
healthy individual
on chemotherapy just to enrich the
physician the physician being the
government right it's like
the physician is administering this
uh quote-unquote medicine to the patient
but the patient
you know being the productive economy
doesn't actually need it right
quantitative easing again it's not
infusing any new value into an economy
it's just reallocating it away from
those holding
the fiat currency as a store value to
those holding assets
that that inflate right typically real
estate stock reliably serious assets
so the the other part of that is that
over time
you know this analogy holds because like
even sugar
or or drugs like maybe heroin or
chemotherapy
it loses its efficacy over time so the
stimulative effects
of fiat currency inflation actually
diminish over time as well
and that's what we're seeing today at
2020 it's that central banks have
kind of pushed all the lovers uh to the
metal so to speak and they're getting
very
little economic response as a result
and it through that biological lens we
could consider
hyperinflation as being a form of like
socioeconomic organ
failure or a toxic shock or all the
sudden these energy centers right in the
form of our institutions or economic
networks
the lifeblood that flows through them
and currency has been so
diminished in terms of its informational
and energetic carrying capacity
that the institutions start to come
unravel right people can no longer
interoperate between themselves and
between these institutions that maintain
the trust that maintains social cohesion
is basically
diluted along with the currency so i
thought that was a great
great way to look at it as well and then
this
i think this is just a wonderful
argument this next point
on how to just diffuse anyone's
counterpoint
to bitcoin once assuming they have a
relatively
sophisticated understanding of a store
value function
and it's just a very simple thought
experiment how do you store value
effectively for 100 years into the
future
how can i store value today in a
uh the most lossless way
to transmit at 100 years into the future
right so we could say all right what's
being used today is stored by
fang stocks right or other high
performing equities
they're being used today why not why not
those so the problem
with those is that clearly by owning an
equity you're taking on industry
regulatory and counterparty risk um
there's not really many equities you
could have invested in 100 years ago
that would still hold their value today
maybe none
actually i'm not i could be wrong on
that but very very few so you have to be
you know the stock picker of the century
so to speak for that to work so you
could say oh well let's look at
something like real estate
real estate also suffers from all of
those issues it does have reliable
scarcity but
it's an asset that's out in the open it
can't be hidden in the event of
a war or an escalation of property taxes
or even just
outright confiscation as in the us we
have imminent domain
your property could just be taken away
completely
even if it worked perfectly say you're
paying a low property tax rate of
two percent a year you're still getting
cut in half every 35 years
so that's not a very effective way
um so that would take you kind of the
historically the most trust minimized
asset
or trust of store value which is gold um
but as we covered in the last episode
you know government or i'm sorry gold
has
two percent inflation per year if you're
trying to
circumvent the counterparty risk related
to it you need to move it
right every quarter every few years that
can be
another 25 basis points to 1 per year
so now even looking at gold as the
hardest economic store value
historically
uh you're talking about getting cut in
half every 35 to 22 years
um and over 100 year period you're
approaching a 90 loss of value
you could say fiat currency right the us
dollar us dollar is strong today but
uh i would argue that there's scarcely a
worse choice than that
um that is the wealth storage medium
that at least holds its value over time
i think your best case of holding a fiat
currency for a hundred years at least
the past hundred years in the us dollar
you're
above 99 total loss of value
and that's if you pick the right
currency and yours doesn't hyperinflate
or
is invaded by another country and the
authorized or whatever it may be
so you're somewhere between 99 and 100
loss of total value and fiat currency
so what does that leave you with leaves
you with bitcoin
right there's only one store of value
that is totally free of counter party
risk
has a fully diluted or totally
uh a universally transparent and
predictable
uh supply schedule so we all know the
inflation there's zero unexpected
inflation
um and it can be stored in a way
in any number of ways um in these custom
high security ultra high security
custody schemas right like multi-sig
and things of that sort so i think you
just zoom out
on the store value argument it's a clear
winner
right there's just not even competition
uh i mean your second best choice is
maybe i guess gold
or possibly real estate and you're still
looking at you know
say in the case of real estate if
everything went perfectly uh
and you only had your two percent
property tax per year you're looking at
like an 87
total loss in 100 years so
where is bitcoin you have essentially
zero
right because we it's not that bitcoin
doesn't have inflation in the system but
the inflation
is it's a fully diluted cap table if you
will everyone knows what it is so you're
playing off of 21 million even though
say maybe 18.5 million bitcoin
have only been issued so far to date so
i thought that was brilliant
great way to look at it zoom out in the
store value arena bitcoin
is undisputed the best contender i mean
the one argument against it would be
it's new right it's 12 years old so how
could you argue it's going to last for
100 years
um and that just comes down to faith and
kind of the existing track record of
bitcoin and the protocol
and the math underpinning it so um
it's not a surefire bet but assuming
bitcoin continues to function
in the same flawless way it has to date
then it's not even a contest
bitcoin's far and away the best store
value
and so that got us into a discussion
about
history and sailor made the point that
the greatest lesson of history
was that the most organized group of
people win
clearly right we are more than the sum
of our parts
when we can coordinate our efforts and
again by getting the politics out of
money
bitcoiners are essentially perfectly
aligned
um we can compete and fight amongst
ourselves and argue and all of these
things but
the one thing that doesn't change it's
not subject to politics
is 21 million right 21 million
no confiscating only private keys can
generate
and spend transactions these these
fundamental rules of money that are not
subject to politics
enhances the cohesion of bitcoiners
effectively
and so that's another perspective on why
bitcoin wins it's just going to have a
more organized more disciplined
uh force basically behind it human force
and the way
i tweeted this the other day i really
liked
uh just putting it this way and this
gets back to the sun tzu thing that
territory is the most decisive factor
in determining the outcome of any battle
and as bitcoiners
the moral intellectual and philosophical
high ground that we occupy
is virtually unassailable so in my mind
that's why we win
right we we are operating
from a place uh that is the most
protected and gives us the most
optionality against all competing
systems
uh and therefore causes
uh that causes bitcoin to out-compete
all the other systems over time right
it's just darwinian
and then going back into
the sov or store value versus medial
exchange argument
sailor had a brilliant way of describing
this bitcoins a high frequency store
value
and a low frequency medium of exchange
so that every second
you're holding bitcoin it's performing
its function right anyone that's saying
bitcoin doesn't have utility they don't
understand
inflation they don't understand store
value because
every second you're holding bitcoin and
it's adhering to that fixed and
diminishing supply schedule
and you're storing it in a custody model
that's
really difficult to confiscate or
corrupt
it's performing it's it's function right
it's storing your
monetary life energy in a encrypted
vacuum sealed container um
and you know one of the things he said
there was
in the sphere of money bitcoin is
immortal energy we've never had anything
like this
um and this too
got into we got into a little bit of the
discussion about
how preserving this wealth will impact
the relationship
bitcoin's relationship with fiat
currency so bitcoin which is
historically yielding about 20
annually if you can go into the market
and borrow at five percent
you have an incentive to never sell you
have an incentive to just keep
accumulating bitcoin and
borrowing uh up to these intelligent
thresholds right of
ideally never being marked to market uh
and having
favorable loan covenants your incentive
is to borrow and acquire bitcoin
and um that again he analogized this to
how
generational wealth is handled where a
lot of families just own
say a block in new york city and they
just borrow against it little by little
over time
so say this point in the sphere of money
bitcoin operates as this immortal
energy if you will and the incentives
related to bitcoin
are interesting because historically
it's been yielding let's say 20
annualized return
so if you can go into the marketplace
and borrow let's say five percent or
anything below the annualized return
then you actually have an incentive to
do so to actually go out and borrow
and acquire more bitcoin and more
recently
this was recorded before sailor's latest
announcement but most recently
uh he actually used microstrategy's
balance sheet
to go out and raise some convertible
notes
and do this very thing or you can borrow
at a rate below
bitcoin's expected annualized return and
he's using it to acquire additional
bitcoin
this this points for something really
interesting pierre richard wrote a great
piece about this years ago
um i think it's called speculative
attacks
and so what's effectively happening is
that
since bitcoin tends to outperform
broader investment indices right and
since
debt and interest rates i'm sorry excuse
me interest rates
are being artificially suppressed by
interest by central banks
this opens up an attack vector on the
fiat currency itself
where market actors can go into the
marketplace borrow fiat
and then actually sell that fiat to
acquire bitcoin
and if you do this at scale this can
actually
uh induce inflationary pressure on the
fiat currency
undergoing the speculative attack so we
could even say that what
the sailor's recent move with the
convertible note play
is in some ways actually a speculative
attack on the us dollar
so again it just points towards this
how the economic principles underpinning
money
and the incentive schemes uh related to
both fiat currency and bitcoin sort of
all point towards
the ultimate success of bitcoin in the
long term
and then we got into the utility of
money
as another one of these these factors
that drive
bitcoin's success and the general point
here is pretty straightforward it's
bitcoin is extensible i mean its
protocol is adaptable you can you can
add other features to it you can build
businesses on top of it you can
connect apis to it there's a great
degree of programmatic
programmability um that bitcoin enables
is something like gold
simply does not right gold is just this
dumb rock that essentially sits in a
vault
and provides assurances of supply
scarcity
but offers none of this other feature
set that bitcoin enables
and looking at it as technology we don't
say that fiat currency
it suffers because it has these
technology back doors
in the form of issuers being able to
inflate the supply
and steal wealth from everyone else
whereas something like gold or bitcoin
does not right it has these
these bad doors closed and
this this spins up a number of
interesting possibilities with bitcoin
which sailor went into
a little more detail but basically
by interfacing
this base monetary protocol we call
bitcoin
with digital technology we now gain a
huge degree
of customizability and uh unique ways
to say channel our will or intent
across time and fund it in many unique
ways
and you can do this you know things like
smart contracts even that
actually mitigate or minimize
counterparty risk whereas if
again you wanted to send flowers to your
niece on a birthday every year for 100
years after your death
do that with something like gold you'd
have to put all your trust in a
custodian
uh and some type of payment mechanism to
get to the flower delivery guy
and then the flower delivery business
itself you'd have to you know bet on one
that was going to stay in business
whereas it's something like bitcoin you
can actually write a lot of these things
increasingly write these things into the
code or into a smart contract
that could go into the marketplace and
search right for
uh say a good payment service to deliver
the payment a good flower delivery
service
so it gives you a much higher degree of
adaptivity
and resiliency and projecting your will
and intentions
um beyond the grave even so super
interesting way to look at bitcoin
and then he touched on another
aspect of bitcoin that really drives its
valuation
and he was referring to the productivity
of the bitcoin
network participants themselves so
when market actors with their individual
corporation government
have decided to go long bitcoin they're
making a similar decision what sailor
did
where they're deciding to use bitcoin as
a primary treasury reserve asset or
so differently just to hold it on their
balance sheet as a means of storing
wealth
and what this does is this is a
two-phased
kind of approach because the initial
phase just hey
i'm putting my treasure into bitcoin
right i'm selling the cash and buying
bitcoin
but the second order effect of that is
once you've made that decision
you as a productive and effective
entrepreneur
are going to continue sweeping profits
or excess cash flow
into your treasury over time so not only
is the the value accreted
to the bitcoin network it's not even
that initial slug of capital in the form
of the treasury transaction
but also the discounted future expected
cash flows
from future sweeps into that same
treasury right
and um and i think this is an incredibly
interesting way to look at it because
i've never seen anyone in bitcoin
that studies it closely that becomes
bullish that ever becomes
less bullish so it's almost like once
you're in
you're allocating capital in you're
studying it more closely you see all
these
things we've covered right in depth and
more things we will cover
on how significant of a monetary
innovation this really is
and it just causes you to sort of
escalate your allocation percentage
right maybe you're
20 of your treasury initially and
creeping up to 30 40 50.
and this is all this self-reinforcing
feedback loop
because every decision you make to
increase your
allocation of the bitcoin is putting
game theoretic pressure on all other
market participants to do the same
right it's a game of front running or
taking as much territory on the network
as possible
so this has a really interesting effect
of intertwining
the fate of bitcoiners together in a way
that it's like a compounding
incentive structure that
incentivizes not only to become more
productive right to generate even more
free cash flow to put into savings right
this into this superior savings
technology
but it also incentivizes us as holders
to want to educate others
we wanted to describe to the rest of the
world
for not only financial purposes but also
for moral purposes
of how the existing system is rigged and
you are being robbed and
this is not only pragmatically the best
system but also philosophically
the best system for savings the world's
ever had and
um even evangelize right once you're a
bitcoin holder
and you found this way of of saving your
own wealth your own life energy
in a in an uncompromisable medium across
time you you want the same for others
right the natural human proclivity
towards
helping one another
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i think sort of comes to the surface and
then you want to see others succeed in
the same way
because why would you want anything else
right other actually other people
succeeding
in true free market economic competition
it's a positive sum game right every
time someone's
doing something better faster cheaper
that solution they're providing accretes
to all of us
so bitcoin really not only does it
intertwine all of the fates
of its network of market participants
but it's also encouraging us to think
differently and and communicate
differently um
versus a fiat currency paradigm which is
much more
zero sum right much more rent seeking
focus so
that was really interesting too so on
this topic of bitcoin
as an american in the idea sense
technology
see i had this great quote that a
crucible
of virtuous innovation requires a vacuum
insulation
layer right again to preserve
the wealth whether that's the
productivity the energy generated the
profits the cash flows
of any entity requires
um an insulating layer of some kind
otherwise
the entropy of nature right whether it's
the greed of man or the uncertainty of
nature
um or the the transaction uh or
let's say the taxes right of moving
capital from one jurisdiction to another
they just eat up
that wealth itself so again we're back
to that
bitcoin being the ultimate vacuum
sealing
of capital we've ever had which i
thought was just a great analogy
we got into inflation a bit and
the one thing i just really wanted to
point out here is that
contrary to what bitcoin is right this
this virtuous
feedback loop of of incentives and game
theory
fiat currency is actually the reverse so
not only is it inflation theft right
it's eroding
real wealth through uh fiat currency
supply inflation
but it's also there's a psychological
element to it as well
so if inflation is growing market actors
are smart
they start to attempt to front run
future inflation so actually
inflation expectations tend to outpace
actual inflation in a non-linear fashion
so
inflation is coming in at two three four
five percent if it's growing people
expect it to continue
growing they'll actually start selling
their fiat today
in anticipation of further fiat currency
inflation in the future
and when you sell fiat currency you're
inducing
uh further inflationary pressure on it
right you're actually
increasing the velocity of money itself
so it becomes this game of like
hot potatoes so you don't want to hold
the dollars and this can add
fuel to that vicious cycle that
ultimately culminates
in hyperinflation and again that's just
the precise
opposite of bitcoin's quantitative
hardening
technology right it's disinflating over
time causing it to appreciate
and then finally we got into you know
one of the topics i like to talk about a
lot
which i think is eternally mystifying is
this concept of truth
um and sailor presented it in a way i'd
never heard before
and that he said quote conservative
conservative energy
is truth meaning that what
whatever strategy or organism or
organization
best adheres to the first law of
thermodynamics
right and optimizing its its inflows and
outflows
let's say of energy or money or anything
else uh
that's how you succeed right you want to
maximize your cash inflows minimize your
cash outflows for instance to be a
successful
organization and in that context bitcoin
is the first
conservative monetary network in history
we could say gold was one
it was the most conservative monetary
network in history but bitcoin is the
first one that maps perfectly on to
thermodynamics i thought that was super
interesting
and um you know as as sailors
said sort of uh sort of jokingly how
they talked about thermodynamics at mit
and that you can't win you can't break
even and you can't escape the game
bitcoin maps onto that really well
it's like you can't manipulate 21
million you must incur
transaction fees right so you can't
really break even
um and you can't ignore the game right
you can't escape the game of bitcoin it
just opposes its rules
on everything so
that was it i think it was a great
episode you know
he concluded with saying that perhaps
bitcoin
is actually the first instance of
technology crashing into economics
so possibly it'll cause a rewriting of
the history books which
i've i've intuited it would
more so in the sphere of say capitalism
versus socialism
but we may actually see
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economics become more focused on these
uh
physical principles of say energy um and
and um everything we've discussed today
thermal dynamic principles and things
like that
and actually uh the new book by safety
you know he's
he's writing a book called principles of
economics and it goes into energy which
is not something you typically see in
economic textbooks so he might be at
right at the cutting edge of something
really important
so anyways that was episode five uh i
hope you can tell things are heating up
at this point you know we spent a lot of
time building this foundation and now i
think you're starting to see the fruits
of that
and uh things are only going to get more
interesting going into future episodes
so
thanks again and we'll see you soon
[Music]
you