SaylorCorpus

Channeling Monetary Energy Across Time and Space | The Saylor Series | Episode 5 (WiM005)

WiM Media · 2020-12-23 · 2h 10m · View on YouTube →

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they're dominating because they're able

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deliver force faster

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harder stronger smarter

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so if we ask the question what is money

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money is the highest form of energy that

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human beings can channel

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bitcoin is channeling human

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ingenuity into making it

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better and and every commodity

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is channeling human energy into making

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worse the lowbrow or the the

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the historic colloquial term is total

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right hold on for dear life or just

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total or save whatever

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and the highbrow term would be adopt as

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a treasury reserve essay

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[Music]

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hey guys so as you learned uh by

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watching the what is money show

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bitcoin is the single most important

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asset you can own in the world today

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and so this begs the question which i'm

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often asked how does one build

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their bitcoin position and the strategy

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really is simple

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i suggest first you decide on an initial

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portfolio percentage allocation

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and target portfolio percentage

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allocation go ahead and establish

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the initial position or the one-time buy

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and then start dollar cost averaging

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towards your target portfolio

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percentage and you can also complement

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by buying bitcoin price dips to further

0:01:43

increase that position and reduce your

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cost basis

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and finally i suggest to everyone to

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custody of their bitcoin to move all

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their bitcoin into self-sovereign

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custody because again bitcoin left on

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exchange is not bitcoin it's a bitcoin

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and for those of you living in the us

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there's no better choice than swan

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bitcoin to do all of the above

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so swan lets you set up automatic

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recurring buys for bitcoin

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also lets you facilitate one-time buys

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for buying price dips

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and finally they let you do some

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automatic

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recurring withdrawals into cold storage

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which is a really big deal

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and all of this they provide at the

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lowest fees in the business

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uh approximately 0.99 per year

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for weekly buys of 50 or more which is

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about

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60 i'm sorry 70 to 80 less than coinbase

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by comparison

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and the best part swan is a bitcoin

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focused

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they publish great content on their swan

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signal live

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podcast uh they publish a lot of content

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in their newsletter and website

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and their their team is just the

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absolute dream team of bitcoin

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i would say check out their roster it's

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growing every day but but it's a super

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with that i would

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myself and the rest of

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uh the swan team as we continue the

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fight to restore

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freedom truth and virtue in the world

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through bitcoin

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alright thanks

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hey guys welcome to episode five of

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the sailor series here on the what is

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money show uh

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super excited for this one this is

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episode two

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of us getting into bitcoin theory um

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and just things are starting to really

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heat up and get interesting at this

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point

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so it's a big episode i don't want to

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waste a lot of time here i'm just going

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to run through a few of the topics

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uh that we'll be hearing today if you

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haven't checked out episodes one through

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yet i suggest that you do because a lot

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of the foundation that we've been

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building upon up until this point

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uh really starts to throw off uh some

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good energy here so

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today we're going to talk about money as

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power uh

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also talking about one of my favorite

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ways to describe money is as an

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insurance policy on the uncertainty

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or the entropy of the future

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and then we'll also be looking at debt

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and how it's actually a form of

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anti-anti-energy excuse me

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and then sailor delivers a really

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interesting take

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on fiat currency and that it's a way of

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politically toxifying money um and he

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draws some really interesting analogies

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there that i think you're gonna like

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and then we're gonna deliver a thought

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experiment that i think

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is a really simple way of clarifying the

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value proposition of bitcoin

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and its superiority as a store value in

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comparison to all other assets

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uh maybe something you can use in your

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own uh arguments with pre-corners

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and then we're going to talk about some

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lessons of history um

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and how essentially the most organized

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group of people tend to win out

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we're going to look at store value

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versus medium of exchange in terms of

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monetary functionality

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we're going to look at the utility of

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money and how that intends to drive

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its market value we're also going to

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look at the productivity of market

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participants in a monetary network and

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how that drives market value

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and then finally we're going to look at

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bitcoin as

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you know what i've argued in past and

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what we get into a bit here is

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american is a i'm sorry bitcoin is

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an american technology now i do not mean

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america the nation state like it was

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invented in america i mean the idea of

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america

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the principles of free market capitalism

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bitcoin positively embodies them

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and say they're not getting into a

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unique discussion on that topic

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and then we'll look at and compare and

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contrast

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the nature of fiat currency inflation

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and bitcoin appreciation and see how

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they're sort of polar opposite

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forces and then we conclude by diving

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some philosophy and we're talking a bit

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about truth

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and how bitcoin uh relates to truth

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and and uh civilization's relationship

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the truth so

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big episode today excited for you guys

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to see this let's jump in

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we're talking about

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about bitcoin the as the first digital

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monetary network and

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and um

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i'm positing this uh this uh

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thought experiment i have a hundred

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million dollar

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block of energy i i can generate a

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hundred million dollars worth of energy

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through

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chemical processes kinetic gravitational

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electrical atomic power

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let's just assume that i did some amount

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of work

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in order to generate that energy i

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converted that energy into money

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money is the highest form of energy now

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i've got a hundred million dollar block

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of money

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you can do a lot with a hundred million

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dollars it equates to about three

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thousand

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pounds worth of gold it converts to a

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hundred million dollars of currency and

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it converts to

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you know we could do the calculation in

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bitcoin ten

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thousand bitcoin right or

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a little bit less than ten thousand

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bitcoin i guess

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at this point in time and now

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now i want to do two things with it i

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want to channel it through time

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and i want to channel it through

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space the beauty of bitcoin channeling

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through time

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is that there really is no loss over

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there's no inflation you've only got the

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21 million bitcoin so as a ratio to the

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21 million

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it's infinitely hard and

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and so that's a big check and and uh

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if we contrast it to gold and fiat

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you're going to lose 99.5

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of your energy in fiat you're going to

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98 of your energy in gold

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you're going to keep all your energy in

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bitcoin so

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clearly channeling energy through time

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is important

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and and it's critical channeling it

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through space

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really refers to not just moving it

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around the world but it means moving it

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across domains as well

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but from counterparty to counterparty

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and uh

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we can see the inefficiencies of fiat

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counterparty to counterparty is your

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you're locked into nine to five banking

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hours you can't

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do big transactions on a saturday

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you're there are certain jurisdictions

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where you can't do transactions at all

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you're always working through a

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counterparty which is its own risk

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and um of course if we go to gold

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fiat is faster but it's it's still got

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complexities and the gold is slower it's

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going to take a month to physically

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deliver

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gold and so super slow super expensive

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and so neither fiat nor

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gold make nearly so much sense for

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channeling energy through time and space

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i think that the best metaphor when i

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think about this is

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it it's like i want to cross from london

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to new york city

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and i need to cross the atlantic and

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that's the journey

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and if i'm gonna do it with fiat

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currency it's like

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a rubber raft with a leak in it maybe a

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big rubber raft

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and it's got a leak in it and i'm gonna

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be continually

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blowing up that raft every day

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to keep it from sinking on me and i'm

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going to get battered this way in that

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way but it

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it's a it's a bit of a venture on the

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other hand with gold

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it's like getting in a wooden ship and

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it's going to rot over the course of

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many many years but maybe for the first

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two three four five years compared to

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the rubber raft

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i feel pretty good but it's a heavy ship

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you know wood is heavier than rubber so

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it's kind of harder to get going and

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it's harder to maneuver it but it's a

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more solid but ultimately it's organic

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and it's going to decay

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and then if i put it into a

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a crypto container a bitcoin

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it's like a steel vessel i have a steel

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a steel hole container ship really is

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the best metaphor

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thousand feet long 60 feet wide moves 30

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knots

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the thing that's special about steel is

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steel is indestructible

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as long as you maintain it

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the maintenance means you have to keep

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it from corroding

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it can be attacked by a corrosion and

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the way you maintain is you paint it

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you sand it down every five to ten years

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you repaint it

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if you maintain it it will last longer

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than you will last in fact

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it's it will last essentially forever

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hundreds of years

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if you punch a hole in a steel hole

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and then you weld it the weld is

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stronger than the original steel

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so it is an indestructible extremely

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strong

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repairable uh element and uh

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it doesn't take a rocket scientist to

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figure out that

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if you're going to actually engage in

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commerce all around the world you want a

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bunch of steel container ships

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you do not want wooden ships and you

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certainly don't want

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inflatables and that that's the

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distinction

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and that's why bitcoin is really such an

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extraordinary

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invention you know we talked about

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getting out of the gravity well

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the other metaphor is i have a hundred

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million dollars worth of energy

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if i can get it into a vacuum and vacuum

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seal it

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it's like vacuums when we want to keep

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food forever we vacuum seal the food

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we want to keep bacteria from attacking

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it we want to

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we want to keep natural parasites and

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pathogens

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from attacking our energy

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and so the way that you protect your

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food energy and stabilize it forever

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is you vacuum seal it

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and uh the way you protect your monetary

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energy

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from parasites and from decay

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and from rotting is you vacuum seal it

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and uh that is the genius

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of bitcoin when i say the destiny of

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money

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is to be encrypted it's like

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it's like vacuum sealing your food it's

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you're taking monetary

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energy in fiat that can decay

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debase diffuse

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and you're encrypting it in

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in an encrypted container such that no

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one else can touch it no one else can

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screw with it

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and uh when you think about

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you think about all these miners these

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miners are power

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plants they're plugged into analog

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energy

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but they're modulating the analog

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energy the physical energy the pure

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energy through the sha

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256 protocol to make it

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a wall of encrypted energy

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if not a cloud of encrypted energy and

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and the rails of encrypted energy if you

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want to pass

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through that if you want to attack that

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you have to go through that

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wall of shaw 256 encrypted energy

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and uh and all of our monetary energy

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is protected and floating in the cloud

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behind that wall

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right and it's a fairly unique wall

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right and and that's the the majesty

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of bitcoin right already the most

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powerful computing network in the world

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we've never had something

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as cryptographically secure as the

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bitcoin network it's already

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in its early stages already the most

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powerful computing network humanity has

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ever seen with still a lot of room to

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yeah and that and i guess that takes us

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to our next

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interesting question which is so how big

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can the bitcoin network get

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and how how is that how is it going to

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absorb more power

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i'm i'm measuring money is power by the

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way the cliche

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money is power right money

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it's not a cliche it's a deep

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reality money is the highest form

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of power the super set of all power

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every kinetic energy i can take bows and

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arrows and guns club you to death and

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take your money

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or take your value with a war i can

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convert kinetic energy

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into power atomic energy into power

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chemical energy i can burn and create

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power right

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gravitational energy like damn a river

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and crate right and ultimately that

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power becomes

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money so but i can't do the uh

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maybe i can do that i can take the money

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and i convert it back into other things

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but money is this amalgam of all powers

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you know that mankind has managed to

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collect

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yes and so the question really is

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how big how much money how much power

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can flow into bitcoin

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and uh there's a lot of debate in the

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community for example the most famous

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model is the stock to flow model right

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and a lot of bitcoins talk about stock

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to flow and it's like well

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as bitcoin gets harder its price is

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going up

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well i mean the power in the network is

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directly proportional to the price

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because it's equal to 21 million

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times the price right that's the power

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in the network

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you can almost look think of it as a

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voltage or something too

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the higher the voltage the more energy

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passes through

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electrical network so i see the price as

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the voltage

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and um i i think that

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um that stock to flow

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is is an interesting uh it's an

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interesting trans

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what is a transcendental model

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where our particular model as we're

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moving through a short period

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early history of bitcoin where the

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the rate of block rewards is falling

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dramatically

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but i think that as you look toward the

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future of the chain as it asymptotically

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goes to 21 million

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and as the block rewards uh go to zero

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and the entire network flips over to

0:16:42

transaction fees

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then you start to think well that's just

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because it's hard that's not going to

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explain why it's valuable

0:16:50

it's it's hard to you know to synthesize

0:16:54

polonium or uranium but it's really hard

0:16:57

to create steel

0:16:59

really like steel power plants if the

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steel overflows

0:17:02

it hits the concrete it blows up kills

0:17:05

everybody

0:17:06

it's hard to deal with nitroglycerin

0:17:09

there's a lot of hard things

0:17:10

in the world and there's some things

0:17:12

that are nearly impossible

0:17:14

i will probably never walk on the sun

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impossible

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but the impossibility of something

0:17:21

doesn't make it valuable what makes it

0:17:24

valuable

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is is some other dynamics and i i have a

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simple model

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my and i tweeted this model the other

0:17:32

day i think

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i i think the the success of bitcoin and

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the network

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power ultimately is a function of the

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adoption

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the utility the productivity and the

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inflation

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those four and they're they're big grand

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concepts they're vectors they're not

0:17:48

like one number they're

0:17:49

ideas but the adoption

0:17:53

idea is a monetary network is going to

0:17:56

be as big

0:17:57

as as uh the amount of of assets

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or the amount of asset holders that

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adopted as their primary treasury

0:18:05

reserve

0:18:05

asset so for example if

0:18:09

a million people with a hundred dollars

0:18:13

decide to hold their hundred dollars and

0:18:15

they put a hundred million dollars into

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bitcoin

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the bitcoin network's worth a hundred

0:18:18

million dollars

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if a company with a hundred million

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dollars

0:18:24

decides to hold their hundred million in

0:18:26

bitcoin they're gonna and

0:18:28

the the lowbrow or the the

0:18:32

the historic colloquial term is total

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right hold on for dear life or just

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total or save whatever

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and the highbrow term would be adopt as

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a treasury reserve asset

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same thing yeah if i'm filing an sec

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statement i would say

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as the treasury reserve asset and it was

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if i was

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just a bitcoin maximalist i loved it and

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i got i was i'm huddling

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yeah they're the same and that's why i

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love the huddlers

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that's why they're they're my people i

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love them

0:19:03

right they're holy but and they and they

0:19:05

figured out before i figured it out

0:19:08

and i gave them credit they figured it

0:19:09

out and that's a genius

0:19:11

right but i'm not too proud to learn

0:19:14

right some some other you got to believe

0:19:17

if i lived a million years ago and some

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dude comes out with fire

0:19:20

i like i'm not like i'm not the guy who

0:19:22

said i'm not doing that that wasn't my

0:19:25

yeah yeah yeah yeah can i borrow some of

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that fire sir

0:19:28

and thank you right thank you for

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bringing life to me

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so adoption the number of

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individuals and the number of entities

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that adopt

0:19:40

bitcoin as a treasury reserve asset not

0:19:43

measured in numbers

0:19:45

measured in monetary energy and you know

0:19:48

in whatever u.s dollar equivalents but

0:19:51

they're converting their fiat

0:19:53

euros yen pesos dollars

0:19:56

the total us dollar amount of

0:19:59

fiat that is converted into bitcoin for

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the purposes

0:20:04

of holding as a treasury reserve asset

0:20:08

you see the the traders the speculators

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they're short-term interesting but over

0:20:14

the long term

0:20:16

they don't really have any value to the

0:20:17

network right

0:20:19

someone that's going to to buy a million

0:20:21

of bitcoin today

0:20:23

and sell it tomorrow they're not going

0:20:26

to drive

0:20:27

network energy because they're going to

0:20:29

rob the network of energy

0:20:30

as fast as they fed the network they are

0:20:33

mercenaries

0:20:34

right you know the roman empire was

0:20:37

built on citizen

0:20:38

soldiers willing to fight and die to

0:20:40

protect what they believed in

0:20:42

at the point that you're hiring

0:20:43

mercenaries to fight

0:20:45

and not die as long as you pay them

0:20:48

your empire's over right right

0:20:52

so citizen the hodlers people that adopt

0:20:55

bitcoin is a treasury reserve asset

0:20:57

they're citizens

0:20:58

of bitcoin they're citizens and

0:21:02

the more if you decide it's 20 of your

0:21:05

treasury reserves

0:21:07

like this is it's a matter of faith it's

0:21:09

like how committed are you

0:21:11

if you're really committed like say

0:21:14

microstrategy you know

0:21:16

i had 500 million dollars worth of money

0:21:19

i didn't need

0:21:21

i had two choices i can buy the stock

0:21:23

back or buy bitcoin with it

0:21:25

well i bought as much stock back as the

0:21:28

as the shareholders wanted

0:21:29

to sell to us because that was the

0:21:31

appropriate respectful thing to do

0:21:34

right tender offer and then whatever's

0:21:37

we convert right the treasury is our

0:21:40

reserve

0:21:41

asset which is our reserve energy is our

0:21:44

life force

0:21:45

right treasury is life force you know

0:21:48

it's not

0:21:49

it's not unlike fat fat is nature's

0:21:51

organic battery

0:21:53

you carry 30 pounds of fat that means

0:21:55

you'll probably be able to live an extra

0:21:56

60 to 90 days without food when the

0:21:58

going gets tough

0:22:00

right no oh and so it's an organic

0:22:03

battery

0:22:03

a treasury is an organic battery or it's

0:22:06

it's a monetary battery for a family

0:22:08

an individual a company or country

0:22:12

right you have no treasury you're going

0:22:15

to die

0:22:17

very quickly you know when the crisis

0:22:20

right you're going to be solvent in some

0:22:24

through an economics lens we would i

0:22:27

often describe this as

0:22:28

cash a cash balance whatever you're

0:22:31

holding it in is basically an insurance

0:22:33

policy

0:22:35

on the uncertainty of the future right

0:22:37

because this cash

0:22:38

balance or this treasury reserve gives

0:22:40

you pure optionality in the marketplace

0:22:43

you're best able to contend with

0:22:45

unforeseen developments

0:22:46

right um and another thing just to jump

0:22:49

back to the

0:22:51

the power and money relationship

0:22:54

i think it's very uh interesting to look

0:22:57

at it

0:22:58

power through the physics definition

0:23:00

physics defines power

0:23:02

as work over time right which that's

0:23:05

what gold was it was reflective of our

0:23:07

collective work

0:23:08

over time and it was a claim on that

0:23:10

work over time in the form of capital

0:23:13

and the other thing you're drawing the

0:23:15

analogy to the vacuum ceiling to protect

0:23:17

it from parasites

0:23:19

i work we could all agree that work is

0:23:23

kind of the opposite of theft

0:23:24

right you don't create any value by

0:23:26

theft you just steal the value of others

0:23:28

and that's essentially what inflation is

0:23:32

money uh being power there's a big

0:23:35

incentive

0:23:36

to store it in a medium that is as much

0:23:39

protected from theft as possible

0:23:41

and i think that's that's getting to the

0:23:42

core value proposition of what bitcoin

0:23:44

represents

0:23:45

[Music]

0:23:48

yeah that is definitely the pro the the

0:23:51

proposition right it's

0:23:54

it's an an encrypted

0:23:57

energy crucible in which we store

0:24:01

the precious energy of life and

0:24:05

and we're we're insulating it via an

0:24:08

encrypted vacuum layer from all the

0:24:10

things that would bleed off

0:24:12

or steal that heat right heat you know

0:24:15

steal the heat steal the energy

0:24:18

right be it a political a political

0:24:21

exchange

0:24:22

or or just just uh physical right there

0:24:25

are a lot of ways to lose the energy of

0:24:28

you know and uh bitcoin solves that

0:24:31

problem

0:24:32

um now how do we get energy into the

0:24:35

system

0:24:37

right yeah there are a lot of metaphors

0:24:39

for heat exchange and

0:24:41

if you look at closed systems a closed

0:24:44

system and thermodynamics

0:24:46

is um is

0:24:49

mass cannot leave or enter only heat

0:24:54

so let's assume that 21 million bitcoin

0:24:56

is the mass

0:24:57

it cannot leave or enter heat can come

0:25:01

um if i'm buying bitcoin

0:25:04

at a price higher than the rolling

0:25:08

the rolling three year average or the

0:25:10

rolling 200 week average

0:25:12

i'm heating it up and if i'm selling it

0:25:15

at a price

0:25:16

lower than the rolling average

0:25:19

for whatever time frame you care about

0:25:21

let's say that four years

0:25:23

is your time reference frame if i'm

0:25:26

selling it

0:25:26

at a price lower than the 200 week

0:25:30

moving average

0:25:31

i'm cooling it down so

0:25:34

people see bitcoin trading day to day

0:25:37

and they're like oh it's lower than

0:25:39

yesterday that's not what i see

0:25:41

i see it if it's trading at 10 000 and

0:25:43

the 200

0:25:45

week rolling average was 7 000

0:25:48

i see it heating up i see it i

0:25:51

i see it as capacitor gathering

0:25:55

energy right and that's a very it's a

0:25:59

important uh way to think of it

0:26:02

now we come back to this issue of

0:26:03

adoption you can adopt bitcoin

0:26:06

with varying degrees of commitment this

0:26:09

it's like a adopt it's like joining a

0:26:11

religion right it's like

0:26:13

so i adopt bitcoin as my treasury

0:26:15

reserve asset

0:26:17

and then do i commit fifty percent

0:26:20

of my reserves to it or one percent

0:26:24

or 99 or 100 percent what is the true

0:26:28

adoption rate how much do you really

0:26:30

believe it is it a hedge

0:26:32

is it a one percent hedge all our paul

0:26:35

tudor jones

0:26:36

or is it a is it a 100 commitment

0:26:40

a la michael saylor right i said no

0:26:43

hedge

0:26:44

no speculation 100 commitment

0:26:47

just by the way just like your body is

0:26:48

100 committed to storing excess energy

0:26:51

and fat

0:26:53

100 commitment right there's no other

0:26:55

thing

0:26:56

uh you know i like your analogy of an

0:26:58

insurance policy

0:27:00

except that i would say an and

0:27:03

all powerful insurance policy with no

0:27:07

caveats because the problem with most

0:27:10

insurance policies is

0:27:11

i have an insurance policy on my

0:27:13

restaurant

0:27:15

but it doesn't cover pandemics

0:27:18

and so on like have you noticed how many

0:27:20

insurance policies are not paying off

0:27:23

in the pandemic because there's a car

0:27:24

valve

0:27:26

well we only insure against a

0:27:29

you know only if this happens and that

0:27:32

that happens and if you didn't do this

0:27:34

and if nobody said that and if the

0:27:35

government didn't do this

0:27:36

then in that case i will give you some

0:27:38

money right

0:27:39

if you were driving your car and you

0:27:41

were drunk i don't pay

0:27:43

the policy if you were sober i paid the

0:27:45

policy

0:27:46

unless someone says that you were

0:27:48

erratic and i don't pay the policy

0:27:50

where and so that's the problem by the

0:27:52

way with buying an insurance policy

0:27:55

yeah if i if i have a hundred million

0:27:58

dollars of energy

0:27:59

and i buy a million dollar insurance

0:28:01

policy that pays off 100 million

0:28:04

if it pays off well that's cheap and i

0:28:07

get to take the 99 million and buy

0:28:09

something else with it

0:28:10

but it's but i've assumed risk i've

0:28:13

taken a counterparty risk

0:28:15

in order to get the insurance policy

0:28:18

you could say you could say that a

0:28:20

hundred million dollars of bitcoin in

0:28:22

your treasury

0:28:23

is an insurance policy with no

0:28:24

counterparty risk

0:28:26

this i think brings up a very deep point

0:28:29

i actually tweeted about this today

0:28:31

there's a quote from carl schmidt that

0:28:35

he who gets to decide the exception

0:28:39

is sovereign right so there's rules that

0:28:42

we're all abiding by our protocols but

0:28:44

whoever gets to make exceptions to those

0:28:46

rules or protocol it really has the

0:28:48

power

0:28:49

to act as they see fit in the world

0:28:51

because they get to bend the rules right

0:28:53

and that's what is so deeply profound

0:28:55

about bitcoin is that it is a set of

0:28:58

rules that we cannot break it is an

0:29:00

exception

0:29:01

proof money supply and it's

0:29:04

unlike anything we've ever had and by by

0:29:08

eliminating that attack vector such that

0:29:10

any group

0:29:11

could be sovereign over the money it

0:29:14

it effectively makes everyone

0:29:16

individually

0:29:17

maximally sovereign and that's one of

0:29:19

the great breakthroughs

0:29:21

of bitcoin and that's why it should be a

0:29:25

treasury reserve asset

0:29:33

if you look at the the corruption

0:29:33

and the decimation the destruction in

0:29:36

our society

0:29:37

and the devastation in our economy there

0:29:40

are two

0:29:41

there are two things that everyone fears

0:29:43

individual bankruptcy

0:29:46

and corporate insolvency right

0:29:49

becoming insolvent as an individual or

0:29:51

as an entity

0:29:52

so how many times you've heard the story

0:29:55

that was a really good company but they

0:29:57

but they took on too much debt

0:29:59

and they couldn't make their interest

0:30:01

and they were broken up and

0:30:03

they closed their factories and they

0:30:04

moved away and

0:30:06

now we're eating i know manufactured

0:30:11

from a machine because our favorite

0:30:13

vendor got destroyed

0:30:15

right there a lot of companies that get

0:30:16

destroyed how does it happen

0:30:19

well they're inve they have treasuries

0:30:21

in fiat the fiat's inflating

0:30:23

so the cfo thinks well i can't afford to

0:30:26

invest this

0:30:28

it's not politically acceptable to

0:30:30

invest in uh

0:30:31

stocks or equity that keeps up with

0:30:33

inflation

0:30:34

if i invest in bonds i can't keep up

0:30:37

with inflation

0:30:38

and so i start borrowing buying my stock

0:30:42

and i borrow money to buy my stock back

0:30:44

so they

0:30:45

if i have 100 million dollars in

0:30:48

treasury

0:30:49

and i borrow 100 million

0:30:57

and then i buy back 150 million worth of

0:30:57

stock

0:30:58

i get the stock up but now

0:31:01

my treasury is net

0:31:05

minus a hun you know what is it i got 50

0:31:07

million in cash

0:31:09

so i minus 50 million in that treasury

0:31:11

instead of plus 100 million right

0:31:13

right so i went from having a positive

0:31:17

a positive position it's like

0:31:20

you have enough fat to live for 30 days

0:31:22

without food

0:31:24

to a negative position you have no fat

0:31:27

you're in debt and there's a banker

0:31:30

that clicks on a feed you button every

0:31:33

day and if the banker decides to pull

0:31:35

the plug

0:31:35

on your credit line you're instantly

0:31:38

eviscerated

0:31:39

exactly and so so a company in debt

0:31:43

with no liquid assets has no energy it's

0:31:46

an energy debt

0:31:48

right so what that means is

0:31:51

maybe you generate a hundred million

0:31:54

dollars in cash flow a year

0:31:55

and you've got 500 million in debt and

0:31:58

or a billion in debt and you need 90

0:32:00

million of it as ebitda to cover the

0:32:02

covenants

0:32:03

that means you have a 10 million dollar

0:32:04

cushion that means you have a 2 million

0:32:07

a quarter cushion that means that in any

0:32:09

given quarter

0:32:10

if you were short three million dollars

0:32:12

on a 500 million

0:32:14

number that three million dollars kicks

0:32:17

you into default

0:32:19

on your debt and renders you potentially

0:32:21

it renders your capital worthless

0:32:23

right drive your equity to zero and it

0:32:26

can render you insolvent

0:32:29

and the creditor can take control you

0:32:31

lose your sovereignty the creditor takes

0:32:32

control of your company you lose

0:32:34

everything

0:32:34

that's right you lose ever by the way

0:32:37

it's the same

0:32:38

as i go on to an exchange and i'm

0:32:40

trading at 50 to 1 leverage or 101

0:32:43

leverage

0:32:44

the idea that i'm going to pledge one

0:32:46

bitcoin

0:32:47

and get control of 100 bitcoin and if it

0:32:49

goes down by 100 bucks

0:32:51

i'm going to be utterly wiped out it's a

0:32:54

pretty

0:32:55

silly idea i would not recommend it to

0:32:57

anybody other than an

0:32:59

addicted gambler you you literally

0:33:02

if your goal is i'm okay losing all of

0:33:05

this and that's just like going to vegas

0:33:07

or going to bitcoinville

0:33:09

if that's the what you want to do then

0:33:12

call it a gambling habit

0:33:14

but there's nothing rational about it

0:33:17

the leverage

0:33:19

the leverage could be thought of as

0:33:22

every entity

0:33:23

be it a government or a corporation is

0:33:26

draining their life energy

0:33:28

pouring it out right when you flip from

0:33:30

being

0:33:31

from having a positive treasury to a

0:33:34

negative treasury

0:33:36

i have drained my entity of my life

0:33:39

force and i'm living at the pleasure

0:33:42

of my creditors wherever and whoever

0:33:46

they may be or my counterparties i've

0:33:49

lost my sovereignty

0:33:51

absolutely and individuals do it too

0:33:54

right corporations do individuals do

0:33:56

absolutely and i think

0:33:57

you're plucking the threat of how the

0:34:00

incentive

0:34:01

schema related to fiat currency

0:34:04

fragilizes

0:34:05

the economy right in a systemic fashion

0:34:08

because to your point

0:34:09

there's no adequate store of value so

0:34:11

people are

0:34:12

forced into at the individual and

0:34:14

corporate level are forced into

0:34:17

the use of leverage right the assumption

0:34:19

of debt because the the

0:34:20

real debt load is actually eroding via

0:34:23

inflation over time so there's an

0:34:24

incentive to take on debt

0:34:26

but this is a very short-sighted

0:34:29

strategy because now

0:34:30

you are hyper exposed to the inherent

0:34:33

volatility of the future right so once

0:34:35

there's any form of shock

0:34:37

right covet or any other form of

0:34:39

economic shock you can go to zero

0:34:40

immediately and get wiped out

0:34:42

versus holding cash makes you

0:34:44

anti-fragile right you can absorb these

0:34:47

shocks you can actually capitalize on

0:34:48

these shocks

0:34:49

such that if price if things get priced

0:34:51

lower in the market

0:34:52

you can go and acquire things at a

0:34:54

discount

0:34:56

and in a simple world if you if you had

0:35:00

that was non-inflationary if the

0:35:03

if if the politicians uh adopted

0:35:07

austrian economics and said we're going

0:35:08

to print cash with zero inflation

0:35:12

then this then it's simple for the

0:35:13

citizens of the society to save in cash

0:35:16

and and you want deflation and the cash

0:35:19

will actually be worth more

0:35:20

over time right and that's what jeff

0:35:23

booth puts up

0:35:24

points out but every technologist knows

0:35:26

this if there was no inflation

0:35:28

the cash would buy more over time right

0:35:31

and my entire simple monetary

0:35:35

uh strategy would be save cash

0:35:38

and over time i'll improve but in a

0:35:41

currency war

0:35:43

the political system declares war on the

0:35:45

currency

0:35:46

and makes the cash toxic and if it's two

0:35:49

percent toxic

0:35:50

that's like a that's like injecting a

0:35:54

a mild drug into your veins when it

0:35:57

becomes 10

0:35:58

toxic is like a poison in your veins

0:36:01

when it becomes 20 toxic this is like

0:36:04

basically saying i'm going to put you on

0:36:06

chemotherapy

0:36:08

but actually it's like putting a healthy

0:36:09

person on chemotherapy

0:36:11

and i pump toxic chemicals through a

0:36:14

healthy

0:36:14

person's bloodstream because current

0:36:18

right current is is like like

0:36:21

blood current it's carrying the energy

0:36:24

of life the oxygen oxygen

0:36:26

is energy right your blood carries

0:36:29

energy to keep you alive

0:36:31

currency is carrying energy if a

0:36:34

sovereign nation

0:36:36

is injecting massive inflation

0:36:39

is into its own currency it's injecting

0:36:42

a toxicity

0:36:43

into its own circulatory system and it's

0:36:46

somewhere between

0:36:47

either one metaphors chemotherapy

0:36:51

another metaphor would be diabetes

0:36:54

type 2 diabetes i'm injecting so much

0:36:57

sugar

0:36:59

so much sugar into your system that your

0:37:01

you know your

0:37:02

insulin response is failing you know

0:37:05

and you're becoming insulin resistant

0:37:08

and your body becomes diabetic

0:37:10

and i inject i give you metabolic

0:37:12

disease because

0:37:13

i am just pumping the liquidity

0:37:17

or pumping that too hard into the

0:37:19

currency

0:37:20

which is the blood of life which is

0:37:23

possibly where we are today right i mean

0:37:25

the stimulative

0:37:26

responses by central banks don't seem to

0:37:28

be having the same effect

0:37:30

as they used to right yeah arguably like

0:37:33

if i pump enough sugar into your body

0:37:36

you become diabetic first and then the

0:37:39

pancreas fails and the liver fails

0:37:42

and you have organ failure cancer and

0:37:44

death

0:37:45

that's that's a that's what happens if

0:37:47

you if you overdose on pure sugar

0:37:49

right um i guess the equivalent

0:37:52

would be hyperinflation if i if i inject

0:37:55

enough of like

0:37:56

enough money money in this system

0:37:59

that the currency loses all of its

0:38:02

energy carrying

0:38:03

like oxygen carrying capability energy

0:38:05

carrying capability i just lose it

0:38:07

all at that point the organ failure is

0:38:10

now how do i buy electricity

0:38:11

how do i buy food right how do i get on

0:38:14

a bus

0:38:14

like all the transit systems the food

0:38:17

systems

0:38:18

how do i pay soldiers and policemen and

0:38:20

firemen that's

0:38:21

death of the society that happens in

0:38:24

hyper hyper inflation

0:38:25

that's a great point the other you said

0:38:27

it loses its energy carrying capacity

0:38:30

and it's also there's a connection here

0:38:32

to information right because the price

0:38:34

signals become totally

0:38:35

disrupted like the money means nothing

0:38:38

in that in that instance

0:38:40

so capital is not being allocated

0:38:42

efficiently whatsoever

0:38:43

because price is complete you completely

0:38:46

lose this economic

0:38:47

nerve signal that we call the price

0:38:49

signal so it's losing its energy

0:38:50

carrying capacity it's information

0:38:52

carrying capacity

0:38:53

and you end up with cash in the streets

0:38:55

like we have in venezuela today

0:38:57

the phrase the phrase toxic shock

0:39:01

comes to mind toxic shock of the

0:39:04

toxic shock of the system but let's move

0:39:08

back to our happy subject

0:39:10

how did the bitcoin energy network grow

0:39:13

adoption so a million people

0:39:17

adopt it as their 90 treasury reserve

0:39:20

asset and they have a million dollars

0:39:24

and now you've got a million

0:39:27

times a thousand is a billion a million

0:39:30

times a million

0:39:31

is a trillion right so

0:39:34

a million millions gets you to a

0:39:36

trillion

0:39:37

in the network they put the money in the

0:39:39

network and

0:39:40

and the network is the syndication of

0:39:43

all of the

0:39:44

energy all of the treasury energy of the

0:39:46

people that choose to adopt it as their

0:39:48

primary treasury reserve

0:39:50

so when a million people put a million

0:39:52

dollars in

0:39:53

it's a trillion dollar network when a

0:39:56

thousand

0:39:56

companies put a billion dollars in

0:40:00

it's another trillion network

0:40:03

so now you're up to two trillion when

0:40:07

when a hundred companies put

0:40:11

a billion in right or or a hundred

0:40:14

billion in

0:40:15

right you you go the next level so

0:40:24

as individuals families

0:40:24

com private companies public companies

0:40:27

government agencies

0:40:30

small governments mid-size you know

0:40:32

municipalities states

0:40:34

small countries mid-size companies big

0:40:36

countries

0:40:38

all the non-profit organizations right

0:40:41

as they adopt

0:40:42

this as their treasury reserve asset

0:40:46

they don't need to adopt it as their

0:40:47

currency medium exchange they don't need

0:40:49

to adopt it as a unit of measure

0:40:50

it's as it becomes their store of value

0:40:53

their treasury reserve

0:40:54

asset as they adopt it the network

0:40:57

syndicates all their energy you know and

0:41:00

the decision

0:41:01

of apple to buy a hundred billion worth

0:41:04

of it

0:41:05

would be would accrue to the benefit of

0:41:07

a million hodlers

0:41:08

that bought a hundred thousand each or a

0:41:11

million each or fifty thousand whatever

0:41:12

they bought

0:41:14

the beauty of it is that everybody is

0:41:17

rata para pursue benefiting right and

0:41:20

it's in everybody's interest

0:41:22

to bring everybody else in right that's

0:41:24

right and uh and it's a network effect

0:41:27

right that as someone comes in someone

0:41:30

else comes in the price moves up

0:41:32

the people that were in it get get a

0:41:35

benefit

0:41:36

that and now we get to this next dynamic

0:41:39

right

0:41:41

but with me pausing to say without

0:41:43

adoption

0:41:44

right without people believing that this

0:41:46

should be their treasury reserve asset

0:41:48

without that you have nothing right so

0:41:50

right so it's not enough to say it's

0:41:52

just hard

0:41:53

you have to people have to love bitcoin

0:41:56

more than they love

0:41:57

gold silver apple stock amazon facebook

0:42:00

whatever

0:42:01

and by the way we didn't touch on it

0:42:03

much but

0:42:10

if we consider you know bitcoin as a

0:42:10

energy network versus facebook as an

0:42:12

energy network

0:42:13

or apple as an energy network the issue

0:42:15

there is i gotta look out a hundred

0:42:17

years and say well i'd be able to put a

0:42:19

hundred million dollars in apple stock

0:42:20

hold it for 100 years

0:42:22

and what's my exposure and of course

0:42:24

your exposure is

0:42:26

income tax on the company sales tax on

0:42:29

their product

0:42:30

tariff exchanges regulatory

0:42:33

interaction income tax on

0:42:41

their employees all sorts of other taxes

0:42:41

you know you can come up with plus plus

0:42:43

any other regulatory action including

0:42:46

and likely being the ultimate

0:42:49

regulation of these things as public

0:42:51

utilities

0:42:52

right because if they weren't regulated

0:42:54

as public utilities the richest guy in

0:42:55

every city would be the guy that owned

0:42:57

the electrical power plant

0:42:59

and that guy would be richer than jeff

0:43:00

bezos or bill gates right

0:43:02

the only reason that these guys are rich

0:43:05

is because they're in a new novel

0:43:08

unregulated

0:43:10

area that was not deemed to be important

0:43:14

and the problem is as soon as it is

0:43:15

deemed to be important enough that you

0:43:18

can't

0:43:18

live without it then it becomes a

0:43:20

god-given right

0:43:22

to have access to your youtube or to

0:43:25

your iphone or to your whatever

0:43:27

and now this is the entire value

0:43:30

proposition

0:43:32

differs i mean we live in a society

0:43:35

right now where people think

0:43:36

equity is like a perfect store of value

0:43:38

what they don't realize is

0:43:40

it's possible for the equity to go to

0:43:43

the equity for example a nationalized

0:43:47

power station has zero equity it still

0:43:50

works

0:43:52

when stuff gets nationalized be it be it

0:43:55

education

0:43:56

power electricity technology the equity

0:43:59

goes to zero

0:44:00

you can have something with the equity

0:44:01

zero and the debt has value

0:44:03

you can have something where the equity

0:44:05

has no value

0:44:06

the the debt has no value but the

0:44:09

underlying vendors are getting paid

0:44:11

yeah i mean it can shift back and forth

0:44:13

it's a political thing

0:44:14

right so so with regard to

0:44:18

to uh bitcoin right and the value of the

0:44:20

network it comes down to people

0:44:23

making the commitment to adopt it as

0:44:26

their treasury reserve asset at all

0:44:28

levels and and no one

0:44:32

i would it's just as good for us if

0:44:34

norway adopts it

0:44:35

for their for their treasury reserve as

0:44:38

it is is

0:44:39

some big charity as it is the

0:44:42

rockefeller foundation

0:44:43

or the hughes institute or harvard or

0:44:46

stanford or mit

0:44:48

or for a private company or a public

0:44:51

company

0:44:53

you know or an agency of the government

0:44:55

maybe um you know the county

0:44:57

you know that you live in or a city you

0:44:59

live in or the fire department or a

0:45:01

union or a pension fund

0:45:03

and then there's all the investors right

0:45:05

hedge funds pension funds

0:45:07

insurance companies right all there are

0:45:10

a lot of entities that have

0:45:12

monetary energy they either need it to

0:45:15

operate

0:45:16

or they've stored it up in trust for for

0:45:19

for their shareholders or for future

0:45:21

generations

0:45:22

etc so as that energy flows

0:45:27

the network strengthens now that's the

0:45:29

first order dynamic

0:45:31

it's simple network effect we're

0:45:33

syndicating our power

0:45:35

no different by the way than let's say

0:45:37

that there's a hundred of us on a

0:45:39

football field

0:45:40

and you organize 50 people to be on your

0:45:43

tug of war team

0:45:45

and i can only get five on mine and the

0:45:47

rest are all singletons

0:45:49

your team wins right if there's a lesson

0:45:52

of history by the way

0:45:54

the lesson of history is the most

0:45:57

organized

0:45:58

team always wins right the reason the

0:46:01

romans kicked everybody's ass for

0:46:03

nearly a thousand years is they were the

0:46:05

most organized

0:46:07

right even that when they put their

0:46:09

petty differences aside

0:46:11

for 700 years they beat everybody else

0:46:14

right and then when they started

0:46:15

fighting with each other there's a decay

0:46:17

and eventually

0:46:18

they when they were disorganized that

0:46:21

dis organization

0:46:23

causes a deterioration in power

0:46:26

so it's the most organized that wins it

0:46:28

doesn't matter whether you're in eighth

0:46:29

grade

0:46:30

football or in high school or whether

0:46:33

you're in college or whatever it is

0:46:35

organization is always critical

0:46:39

and i think i think you're pointing to

0:46:41

another strength of the bitcoin network

0:46:44

and also debunking what i would call the

0:46:47

alternative narrative

0:46:49

that money needs to be adopted as a

0:46:51

medium of exchange

0:46:52

to proliferate as a network right

0:46:56

you you do have to hold or adopt it as a

0:46:59

treasury reserve asset

0:47:01

in an economic sense to create

0:47:03

reservation demand

0:47:04

for that asset you're taking that asset

0:47:06

off the market you're reducing its

0:47:08

supply

0:47:09

thereby increasing its price and that's

0:47:12

creates the the bootstrapping effect i

0:47:15

guess of this monetization

0:47:16

process and that that again harkens back

0:47:19

to this evolutionary path where you have

0:47:21

as a store value first after it's

0:47:24

accreted enough value

0:47:25

it can be used as a medium of exchange

0:47:27

because those early holders

0:47:28

have more of an incentive to use it as a

0:47:30

medium of exchange

0:47:31

and then finally once it's widely

0:47:33

accepted enough it's being used as a

0:47:34

unit of account

0:47:35

so i think that really and to your point

0:47:37

about organization

0:47:40

holders are all perfectly aligned to 21

0:47:44

million

0:47:44

right it's just the energy efficient

0:47:45

strategy is to just hold

0:47:47

it's very simple hard to disrupt hard to

0:47:50

disorganize because there's not a lot of

0:47:52

activity on part of the holder

0:47:53

so it seems like an indomitable strategy

0:47:56

in the market for money

0:47:58

that's why that's why if you understood

0:48:00

bitcoin

0:48:01

you would never say something so silly

0:48:03

as i know when to buy it i know and to

0:48:05

sell it and i just

0:48:06

trade the people that are trading in it

0:48:10

don't really understand it because they

0:48:13

understood it

0:48:14

they would just buy it and hold it and

0:48:16

then sometimes people think they're

0:48:18

accomplishing something but they're

0:48:19

accomplishing not that much

0:48:21

like if a hundred a hundred entities buy

0:48:25

a billion each

0:48:27

then the value of the network's gonna go

0:48:28

up by a hundred by more than a hundred

0:48:30

billion dollars and if they just buy it

0:48:32

and park it in a cyber vault and don't

0:48:34

touch it for a hundred years

0:48:36

it doesn't matter it's going up right

0:48:41

that the the the fact that they poured

0:48:43

their energy

0:48:44

into the container is actually what

0:48:47

caused the energy network to grow the

0:48:49

moving in and out

0:48:51

is actually wasting and dissipating

0:48:53

energy you know you're

0:48:55

you're just dissipating energy to come

0:48:57

and go

0:48:59

and um and and ultimately

0:49:03

the success of the thing is what

0:49:06

we've got i hear these people they talk

0:49:09

about uh store value medium exchange

0:49:13

bitcoin is a high frequency store of

0:49:15

value and a low

0:49:17

frequency medium of exchange right

0:49:20

that's what it needs to be and

0:49:21

technically that's what it is

0:49:24

and and if you understand that once you

0:49:27

get it you realize you shouldn't

0:49:28

fight that so for example i buy a

0:49:31

billion dollars of bitcoin

0:49:34

every second every second

0:49:40

it keeps anybody from stealing my

0:49:42

bitcoin

0:49:43

every second it's storing the value no

0:49:46

government no parasite

0:49:48

no thief no hacker is taking my billion

0:49:51

dollars

0:49:52

so every second for the next million

0:49:54

years it's working

0:49:56

i you know in the same way that i put

0:49:59

that energy into a vacuum package and

0:50:01

every second it's staying vacuum sealed

0:50:04

and the whole point was to live forever

0:50:06

and so if i gave you a little crypto

0:50:09

feel that made you

0:50:10

live forever and never age you would say

0:50:14

high frequency longevity device it works

0:50:17

pretty well

0:50:18

and you wouldn't have a problem there's

0:50:20

nothing wrong with

0:50:21

living forever it's immortal energy

0:50:25

so that's high frequency the problem is

0:50:27

people don't recognize

0:50:29

that every second of the day they're

0:50:31

being attacked

0:50:32

you are being attacked by the way every

0:50:34

second of the day there's bacteria and

0:50:36

there's viruses trying to kill you

0:50:38

if i said i'm going to spin up a field

0:50:40

that stops them from killing you it's

0:50:42

going to work a million years and you're

0:50:43

not going to notice it

0:50:45

you would think that's a pretty good

0:50:46

trick but that's in fact what happens

0:50:49

when you actually store value now low

0:50:52

frequency medium of exchange in order

0:50:56

for bitcoin to have its anti-fragile

0:50:58

properties

0:51:00

we and for it to have utility we have to

0:51:02

be able to move it

0:51:03

on occasion maybe once a year i move it

0:51:06

from one

0:51:08

one cyber crypto bank to another one or

0:51:10

one cyber evol to another one or once a

0:51:13

decade

0:51:14

or maybe when i'm gonna die i need to

0:51:17

transfer

0:51:18

it to somebody or split it between my

0:51:21

daughter and my son or maybe not maybe i

0:51:24

just have one key and i give it to

0:51:26

my one child they give it to their one

0:51:28

child they give it to their one child

0:51:30

and it never gets transferred but

0:51:32

but um maybe once a year

0:51:36

i have to take five percent of my

0:51:38

bitcoin

0:51:39

out of my vault convert it to fiat

0:51:42

and then break that into a hundred

0:51:44

thousand little parts and put it on

0:51:45

apple pay

0:51:46

and use it to pay for uber's and

0:51:48

domino's pizza and

0:51:50

credit card bills okay once a year

0:51:53

i take out i take a chunk out of my

0:51:56

piggy bank

0:51:57

my crypto bank and i put it into fiat

0:52:00

and i do whatever i'm gonna do with it

0:52:02

right maybe

0:52:03

and by and maybe if i

0:52:06

if the world works the way you think it

0:52:08

might work i just put a hundred million

0:52:11

dollars into the vault

0:52:13

i never take it out i just borrow

0:52:15

against it and i

0:52:16

bar you know like i just borrow three

0:52:19

million a year one million a year

0:52:22

tax-free i don't recognize income

0:52:25

i don't generate a capital gain tax i

0:52:27

don't generate any operating income

0:52:28

tax i i don't if i borrow money in cash

0:52:34

and if my if my bitcoin is going up 20

0:52:38

a year if that's the real yield and i

0:52:41

can borrow money at five percent

0:52:43

then my effective our arbitrage is 15

0:52:47

so it never makes sense to sell it ever

0:52:50

right

0:52:50

in fact in fact if you look at people

0:52:53

that use real estate as a store of value

0:52:55

the way it works is

0:52:57

my family buys a block in manhattan for

0:53:00

a hundred million dollars

0:53:01

or they buy it for 10 million dollars in

0:53:03

1900 it goes up eight percent a year

0:53:07

it doubles every 10 years it's worth 20

0:53:09

million then 40 million than 80 million

0:53:11

and then

0:53:12

160 million and by the time you get out

0:53:14

80 years you got a billion dollars worth

0:53:16

of real estate in manhattan

0:53:18

you're not selling it you haven't done

0:53:21

one transaction

0:53:22

in a hundred years all you've done is

0:53:25

pledged it is collateral against the

0:53:27

loan and you borrowed 42 million dollars

0:53:29

against it and you're paying three

0:53:31

percent interest

0:53:32

and that 42 million dollars that's not

0:53:34

income

0:53:35

you didn't pay 40 tax on 40 million

0:53:37

dollars in income

0:53:38

that's not a capital gain it's not a

0:53:40

long-term capital gain it's not a

0:53:42

short-term capital gain

0:53:44

it's a liability you've generated 42

0:53:47

million dollars of liabilities against a

0:53:49

non-taxed

0:53:49

asset the only way it's getting taxes

0:53:52

you're just you're suffering from real

0:53:53

estate taxes right

0:53:55

but but you can see if you if you're in

0:53:58

a jurisdiction

0:53:59

where inflation is high real estate tax

0:54:02

is low

0:54:03

interest is low then your secret

0:54:06

to living well forever tax-free

0:54:10

it's just borrow against your stationary

0:54:13

assets and so you know and that's that's

0:54:16

the news and the

0:54:17

that's the news of this week right

0:54:19

donald trump has 400 million in debt and

0:54:21

paid no taxes for a decade

0:54:23

right but he's not unique you know you

0:54:26

could substitute

0:54:27

every real estate magnate generational

0:54:31

a family that had generational wealth

0:54:34

and real estate

0:54:35

they all did it yeah all of them

0:54:38

like that's you know how do rich people

0:54:41

live well and pay no taxes not by

0:54:44

selling stuff

0:54:46

right not by transacting stuff the way

0:54:49

that they actually live

0:54:51

is they just park an asset on the

0:54:53

balance sheet

0:54:54

and they never ever ever ever trade it

0:54:57

they just finance it or bar against it

0:55:00

and then once in a blue moon

0:55:02

once a decade somebody wants to pay me

0:55:03

triple what it's worth

0:55:05

and maybe i do it but oftentimes you

0:55:08

the warren buffett school of thought is

0:55:10

the taxes kill you

0:55:12

and so the ideal holding period for an

0:55:14

asset is forever

0:55:16

right and it's not just you know he says

0:55:18

it's forever

0:55:19

because like i'm committed to it yeah

0:55:21

but it's the taxes

0:55:23

that murder you and so the ideal holding

0:55:26

period is forever because then you can

0:55:28

pledge it

0:55:29

and borrow against it and how do you get

0:55:33

you buy an asset it goes up you borrow

0:55:35

against it to buy another asset

0:55:37

and it goes up your buyer gets to buy

0:55:39

another asset and it goes up

0:55:41

and pretty soon you know you've

0:55:43

generated all these assets that are

0:55:45

highly appreciated with massive built-in

0:55:47

capital gains that you're never ever

0:55:48

going to recognize

0:55:54

obviously that can change in different

0:55:54

jurisdictions of the politicians decide

0:55:56

they're just going to tax you on

0:55:57

unrealized capital gains but

0:55:59

let me ask you how do you balance that

0:56:02

with the the

0:56:05

not becoming fragilized by leverage is

0:56:09

it just kind of a

0:56:10

threshold that you would keep you'd

0:56:12

never borrow more than say 10

0:56:13

of the value of the collateral something

0:56:16

to that effect is that how you protect

0:56:17

yourself

0:56:18

the fragility comes from uh

0:56:22

two primary metrics uh collateral

0:56:25

coverage

0:56:26

and uh and the um and the mark the

0:56:29

market

0:56:29

the the frequency of the loan the

0:56:31

duration of the loan

0:56:33

how frequently is is the collateral

0:56:36

marked to market

0:56:38

so for example if you borrow money to

0:56:41

buy a house and it's a 30-year mortgage

0:56:45

and if the bank says to you they're

0:56:47

never going to market

0:56:48

tomorrow they're never going to mark it

0:56:49

down right there are some loans like a

0:56:52

mortgage loan where they'll never get

0:56:53

marked down

0:56:55

they might get marked up you can go to

0:56:57

the bank and you can petition them

0:56:59

to revalue your loan but nobody ever

0:57:01

went to the bank and said

0:57:03

uh mark my house to the market after the

0:57:06

real estate market crashed

0:57:07

right sure yeah so if you buy a million

0:57:10

dollar house with a

0:57:12

with a 800 000 loan right

0:57:15

and you've got 800 000 in debt and it's

0:57:17

it's never marked the market then

0:57:18

there's not that much fragility as long

0:57:20

as you can make the

0:57:22

25 000 a year interest payment

0:57:25

assume i mean three percent right so

0:57:28

that's not that risky

0:57:29

i mean a little bit risky you can't make

0:57:30

25 000 you lose it but but

0:57:32

on the margin if i didn't have the

0:57:34

million bucks or i didn't have the 800

0:57:36

000 and someone's going to give me the

0:57:37

800 000

0:57:38

house for free and all you do is pay 25

0:57:41

000 a year

0:57:41

i think that's pretty good trade-off and

0:57:43

the worst that happens is

0:57:45

they take the house back and i go do it

0:57:47

again somewhere else

0:57:49

so that's not very fragile how does it

0:57:51

get fragile it's fragile when you buy a

0:57:53

million dollar house

0:57:56

and um and you pledge um

0:57:59

well actually it's fragile when you buy

0:58:01

a million dollars with the stock

0:58:08

on 800 000 alone you know

0:58:08

and you've got loan to value of 80

0:58:10

percent and now

0:58:12

the stock trades down 20 percent right

0:58:15

and the stock trades down 20 and the

0:58:17

banker marks the loan

0:58:19

marks the collateral every day and

0:58:22

if you're in a swap uh with a bank uh

0:58:25

they will market to market every day

0:58:27

every single day they calculate the

0:58:29

value of collateral and

0:58:30

if you're under that you have to wire

0:58:32

them the money the next day and if

0:58:34

you're over

0:58:34

they they in theory have to wire you the

0:58:36

money and you have to market the market

0:58:38

every day that's risky and and

0:58:41

and of course so if you are going to buy

0:58:44

stock if you're going to buy a 100 stock

0:58:47

you probably don't want to borrow more

0:58:49

than 50 percent but

0:58:50

but if you borrow 50 you you damn well

0:58:53

better

0:58:54

think that the volatility is not going

0:58:55

to be 50 right right

0:58:57

you can't afford it so probably

0:59:00

in that case if you thought the

0:59:01

volatility was to could lose half its

0:59:03

value you want to borrow no more than 25

0:59:05

percent

0:59:06

if you want to be able to hold the stock

0:59:08

even if it loses 80 of the value you

0:59:09

can't borrow more than 20 percent loan

0:59:11

to value right

0:59:12

right so

0:59:16

the the big risk the hyper risk is like

0:59:18

one of these bitcoin exchanges i go 101

0:59:21

leverage and i mark the market

0:59:23

every hour right what if i mark the

0:59:27

market every minute robert

0:59:29

right i mean that's the bitmex

0:59:30

liquidations right i basically

0:59:33

bought a hundred bitcoin i pledge one

0:59:35

bitcoin

0:59:36

it gets mark the market every minute and

0:59:38

if the price goes down a hundred dollars

0:59:41

i get wiped out and there's a crash

0:59:44

and uh and it happens in three seconds

0:59:48

so that's risky yeah if you

0:59:51

if you want to take the opposite point

0:59:53

of view i have uh

0:59:55

i have a hundred bitcoin and i'm gonna

0:59:58

borrow

0:59:58

the equivalent of one bitcoin in value

1:00:00

or 10 bitcoin in value

1:00:02

and as long as it doesn't go more than

1:00:05

90 percent down

1:00:07

i'm good but if you wanted to save for

1:00:09

one you would say

1:00:11

i'm going to borrow against the

1:00:12

collateral but i want you to agree that

1:00:14

you won't ever market the market

1:00:16

um that's what real estate loans are

1:00:19

right or like or you know

1:00:23

a bank uh i'm going to loan you money

1:00:26

against your artwork

1:00:27

or against uh your boat or against some

1:00:30

other

1:00:31

some other interesting collectible and

1:00:33

every year

1:00:35

our our um appraiser is going to

1:00:37

reappraise it

1:00:38

or every five years right so

1:00:42

it's the the issue is the frequency of

1:00:44

the appraisal

1:00:45

right complying with the volatility

1:00:48

of the asset combined with the political

1:00:52

regime you're in combined with the

1:00:56

loan to value if you're in a political

1:00:58

regime where

1:00:59

where it's unacceptable to let real

1:01:02

estate values

1:01:03

go down then you can reasonably

1:01:06

expect that it's not likely your house

1:01:07

is going to be worth 20 of what you

1:01:09

bought it for because the politicians

1:01:11

won't let that happen

1:01:12

but they might not protect your picasso

1:01:14

painting

1:01:16

but so if i borrowed money against

1:01:17

picasso painting

1:01:19

you know i might and the banker said

1:01:21

we're going to market the market every

1:01:23

month that's not as

1:01:24

good as once a decade right

1:01:27

so so when you're thinking about risk

1:01:30

you're thinking about

1:01:31

how liquid is the collateral and how

1:01:33

frequent

1:01:34

is the mark to market and then how much

1:01:37

is the loan to value

1:01:39

and and that's how you you get to a

1:01:42

a question of risk and what you should

1:01:44

do or not do

1:01:45

that makes sense i'm not saying you have

1:01:47

to do it by the way

1:01:49

you know you could just sell the bitcoin

1:01:52

highly appreciated for cash paid

1:01:55

tax and take zero risk and and

1:01:59

you know look if if the interest rate

1:02:01

was 18

1:02:03

and you like and you thought that um

1:02:06

the economy was gonna grow at four

1:02:08

percent or three percent

1:02:10

then you would sell and you would take

1:02:13

on the debt so

1:02:14

it's a function of of uh interest rates

1:02:16

as well

1:02:17

and uh and productivity and let's go

1:02:20

back to this issue of

1:02:21

our our our power equation adoption

1:02:25

utility productivity inflation we talked

1:02:27

about adoption

1:02:29

and my point there was you're just

1:02:31

syndicating

1:02:33

if the world is static in a static world

1:02:36

where there's um

1:02:37

a trillion dollars of assets if you get

1:02:40

a 100 billion on the network

1:02:42

then that's better than 10 and 500

1:02:45

billion is better than 100

1:02:47

and in a static world it's just all

1:02:48

about recruiting

1:02:50

and getting people to join the network

1:02:53

but the world is not

1:02:54

strictly speaking static the next

1:02:57

next thing is is dynamic and technology

1:03:00

is what makes it dynamic and that's

1:03:02

where utility comes in

1:03:04

so if i can take bitcoin and i can buy

1:03:07

it from square

1:03:09

cash it's got more utility if i can

1:03:12

send it as twenty 22. if i can send it

1:03:16

from square cash if square will convert

1:03:18

my bitcoin

1:03:19

into dollars and send it in a split

1:03:21

second it's got more utility

1:03:23

if apple computer builds it into apple

1:03:26

and i can link a small wallet with

1:03:30

one percent of my bitcoin into apple pay

1:03:33

and i can zap that around on my iphone

1:03:35

it's got more utility

1:03:37

if if a bank if kraken creates a crypto

1:03:41

and they offer me four percent interest

1:03:44

and they'll offer it to me with

1:03:45

institutional

1:03:47

low-risk counterparty and they and they

1:03:49

represent to me

1:03:51

that they've got 100 billion dollars of

1:03:54

insurance

1:03:55

and i can give them my crypto wallet and

1:03:57

i get four percent interest on and are

1:03:59

six and i trust them

1:04:02

the utility just went up again

1:04:05

right and uh bitcoin becomes more

1:04:08

valuable

1:04:08

if if i get to the point where

1:04:12

where i can tie i can manage my crypto

1:04:15

you know using my retina scanner face id

1:04:18

and give speech instructions and i can

1:04:21

send robert 37 in cash

1:04:25

you know of my crypto and if it always

1:04:28

works

1:04:29

and i did it i just did it right

1:04:32

and it's more secure than hardware key

1:04:35

and i don't have to remember my 12 seed

1:04:37

key or whatever

1:04:38

and i don't have to have it whatever and

1:04:39

it never work never fails

1:04:41

utility went up right

1:04:44

but if i can say robert if i can say

1:04:47

uh uh maybe i got a girlfriend uh lisa

1:04:51

i say send lisa flowers on her birthday

1:04:55

every year for the next decade click

1:04:59

and it's jacked into my crypto utility

1:05:02

went up right there's a lot of ways

1:05:04

utility can go

1:05:06

up right if buying stuff selling stuff

1:05:09

etc it's all a function of technology if

1:05:13

the lightning network

1:05:14

works you know and yeah in the ideal

1:05:17

world back to back to my example

1:05:19

i have x money ten million dollars i

1:05:22

have a hundred million

1:05:23

or i have a hundred thousand in my uh

1:05:26

checking account

1:05:27

i say move a hundred thousand in

1:05:30

checking leave the rest in the

1:05:32

in the bank yielding seven percent

1:05:34

interest tie my checking

1:05:36

account into apple pay link that

1:05:39

to my uber account my sister's uber

1:05:42

account my domino's account

1:05:43

and use it to pay off netflix google

1:05:46

this that and the other thing

1:05:48

and pledge it you know as trusted

1:05:50

collateral

1:05:51

on some dating network to show that i'm

1:05:53

a real person

1:05:55

and then use it oh yeah and

1:05:56

automatically pay all my fees on my

1:05:58

domain registrations every year when

1:06:00

they come due

1:06:01

there i just said it i just did it

1:06:08

that's utility that's right that's it

1:06:08

that's so connected

1:06:10

to productivity right you're just you're

1:06:12

it's enabling you to accomplish

1:06:14

greater results with the same or less

1:06:15

efforts so the utility is a reflection

1:06:18

of your productivity

1:06:19

and that that's a great segue to to

1:06:21

element three

1:06:23

of of the network power and that's

1:06:26

productivity

1:06:27

well we have a million hodlers and they

1:06:31

put a million

1:06:32

dollars each into the network and now

1:06:34

and now we have a trillion dollars

1:06:37

in the network adopting it as your

1:06:40

primary treasury reserve asset means

1:06:42

sweeping

1:06:42

your excess cash flows into bitcoin

1:06:46

so those million people put a million

1:06:48

each but how much money they make each

1:06:49

year and how much do they save each year

1:06:51

so let's say they they uh make a hundred

1:06:55

thousand a year

1:06:56

and they save ten thousand a year so ten

1:06:58

thousand times a million

1:07:00

10 billion right so in that case

1:07:03

10 billion in fiat gets converted into

1:07:05

bitcoin

1:07:06

every year that's the productivity

1:07:09

if they all get a raise to next year

1:07:12

it'll be 11 billion next year it'll be

1:07:14

12 billion

1:07:15

if they all start their own business

1:07:17

their next year will be 30 billion

1:07:19

if the economy is growing and they're

1:07:21

inventing cool stuff

1:07:22

and one of them becomes the next michael

1:07:28

or bill gates or whatever that person's

1:07:28

going to put in

1:07:30

100 you know billion or 50 billion right

1:07:32

if you if you get lucky and winning

1:07:33

toddlers is jeff bezos

1:07:35

and he's going to put in 37 billion so

1:07:37

the productivity of the individuals

1:07:41

is going to sweep cash flows into the

1:07:42

network and the same is true with the

1:07:44

productivity of the corporations

1:07:47

so microstrategy we put 500 million

1:07:51

into a network we make 50 million a year

1:07:53

if we generate 50 million a year

1:07:55

after tax we sweep that into the

1:07:57

treasury

1:07:59

right and do that 10 years in a row our

1:08:02

initial 500 million is going to become

1:08:05

500 million more of discounted cash flow

1:08:09

right so now we're just back to some

1:08:11

basic finance theory

1:08:13

what's the value of the stock it's equal

1:08:16

to the cash

1:08:17

the the balance sheet cash value

1:08:21

plus the discounted value of the

1:08:23

discounting of the cash flows

1:08:26

the discounted value of the cash flows

1:08:27

over time so

1:08:30

the treasury that gets put in is the

1:08:32

initial slug

1:08:33

and the discounted value of the cash

1:08:35

flows of all the people in the network

1:08:38

is the next value proposition of course

1:08:41

this kind of dovetails nicely with

1:08:43

economic theory because

1:08:45

if the overall worldwide economy is flat

1:08:48

and not growing

1:08:50

then the cash flows are not going to

1:08:51

grow if the overall economy

1:08:54

tanks and goes and and starts to

1:08:56

deteriorate the cash flows will

1:08:58

deteriorate

1:08:59

if i destroy the economy cash flows are

1:09:02

going to zero

1:09:04

no value will accrete and if i invent an

1:09:07

atomic over thruster that gives you

1:09:09

infinite energy in a sugar cube

1:09:11

presumably

1:09:13

you know productivity is going to go

1:09:14

through the roof and cash flows are

1:09:16

going to go through the roof

1:09:17

so ultimately we're getting a bunch of

1:09:20

people to join the network

1:09:21

and then the our fates all of our fates

1:09:25

are intertwined

1:09:26

with all of our productivities we've

1:09:28

created a cyber economy

1:09:30

just like warren buffett said never

1:09:32

never bet against the united states

1:09:35

the united states was a 20th century

1:09:36

physical economy and every business in

1:09:38

it was working to the benefit of every

1:09:40

other business in a competitive

1:09:42

capitalist darwinian ecosystem

1:09:46

well now we're actually creating a cyber

1:09:48

economy where you can be in a

1:09:49

relationship with

1:09:51

anybody else to the extent that

1:09:55

that robert you adopt as a hodler

1:09:58

and i adopt as a corporate treasurer if

1:10:01

i'm successful

1:10:02

you benefit if you're successful

1:10:06

i benefit right obviously

1:10:10

if we can get apple computer to put 100

1:10:12

billion in

1:10:13

and then sweep 50 billion a year

1:10:16

we all benefit right and when a country

1:10:20

does it

1:10:21

they benefit and of course if the people

1:10:23

that join the network

1:10:25

are more responsible right if if they

1:10:28

actually are productive

1:10:29

and they save more than they spend or

1:10:32

earn more revenue than they spend in

1:10:36

then the network grows and if they spend

1:10:39

more in revenue

1:10:40

flip it the other way a million hodlers

1:10:43

all of a sudden save their money

1:10:45

and then they start going crazy and

1:10:47

partying and quit their jobs and buy

1:10:49

lambos and

1:10:51

blow it all on champagne and gambling

1:10:54

they start drawing down their balances

1:10:56

in the bitcoin network and they sell

1:10:58

their bitcoin for

1:10:59

fiat and if they're selling it for fiat

1:11:03

they're draining the energy out of the

1:11:04

network

1:11:05

right right so the network is going to

1:11:08

accrete

1:11:08

with virtuous economic behavior and

1:11:12

debase and dilute with vices

1:11:16

i i love the example that you use of the

1:11:18

united states

1:11:19

as being this darwinian economic

1:11:22

ecosystem

1:11:24

of value creation because it was indeed

1:11:27

kind of it was the place in the world

1:11:29

with the lowest impediments to free

1:11:31

trade

1:11:32

that actually led to america creating

1:11:35

the most wealth and the most capital

1:11:36

right

1:11:37

and in many ways i think bitcoin

1:11:40

positively embodies a lot of the the

1:11:43

founding principles

1:11:44

of we would say american free market

1:11:48

capitalism right

1:11:49

you have inviolable property rights

1:11:52

in bitcoin uh which which in the

1:11:55

american ecosystem are actually

1:11:57

marginally disrespected through

1:11:59

quantitative easing and fiat currency

1:12:01

printing

1:12:02

there's a rule of law here so in the us

1:12:05

so we have non-violent dispute

1:12:06

resolution and enforcement of contract

1:12:09

uh and clearly the bitcoin network is

1:12:12

you know the most

1:12:13

adept network at reaching global

1:12:15

consensus we've ever created

1:12:17

and then kind of from the first two uh

1:12:20

honest money or hard money

1:12:22

would be something else that a real

1:12:24

capitalist system puts out

1:12:26

so it's it's almost as if america

1:12:29

as an experiment was the closest thing

1:12:31

to pure capitalism we had

1:12:33

prior to bitcoin because again the

1:12:36

nation state always gives into that

1:12:37

temptation to violate the money supply

1:12:39

and thereby violate the private property

1:12:42

rights of its citizens

1:12:44

you know robert uh you jog my memory or

1:12:47

drug my thoughts

1:12:48

i've described bitcoin as a swarm of

1:12:51

cyber

1:12:52

hornets behind a wall of encrypted

1:12:55

energy

1:12:57

well the united states

1:13:05

is a swarm of military assets a navy

1:13:05

army and air force behind a wall of

1:13:08

water

1:13:09

right you know the insulation is the

1:13:13

pacific ocean the atlantic ocean

1:13:15

three thousand miles of water you had to

1:13:17

go through the navy the army and the air

1:13:19

force

1:13:20

and that protected

1:13:23

a bunch of capitalists a bunch of

1:13:26

entrepreneurs

1:13:27

work you know in service of the goddess

1:13:32

of wisdom in this case in service of the

1:13:34

american way

1:13:35

right the american business is pursuing

1:13:38

the american dream

1:13:40

unhindered by interruption

1:13:43

because they're behind a wall of water

1:13:47

but you know you know you go to you go

1:13:49

to poland

1:13:50

they're good people too right i've been

1:13:53

there

1:13:53

i have a lot of polish employees they're

1:13:55

brilliant

1:13:56

between russia and germany you know

1:14:00

sometimes you know again trotsky's point

1:14:03

you may not be interested in war but war

1:14:05

is interested in you it's kind of hard

1:14:07

to go about your business

1:14:09

when people are rolling over you with

1:14:10

tanks this way

1:14:12

that way and and uh

1:14:16

the equivalent of that in a monetary

1:14:18

system or

1:14:19

an energy system is when someone's

1:14:21

stealing your energy

1:14:22

right okay how do i keep my coffee warm

1:14:26

i put it in a thermos i need to

1:14:29

insulate my energy so that no one steals

1:14:33

if i if i take your starbucks coffee and

1:14:35

i put it in a

1:14:36

cooler of ice and i drop it in the ice

1:14:38

your coffee is getting cold

1:14:41

right right and so the wall of encrypted

1:14:44

energy is the insulator the wall of

1:14:46

water

1:14:47

is the insulator the insulation is the

1:14:49

insulator the vacuum

1:14:51

is the insulator if you want if you want

1:14:54

a crucible

1:14:56

of of um virtuous innovation

1:15:01

you need that vessel that serves as the

1:15:05

insulator

1:15:06

against all the forces that would attack

1:15:09

it from without

1:15:10

or interfere with that process

1:15:13

and um you know and that's yeah that is

1:15:16

bitcoin

1:15:17

right we're creating that and

1:15:21

and having said all that right adoption

1:15:23

utility

1:15:25

productivity those three things create

1:15:28

monetary chemical reaction

1:15:31

of sorts and the last piece is inflation

1:15:35

but inflation is almost just the way

1:15:38

that we translate

1:15:40

the energy it's the translation

1:15:42

coefficient of the energy

1:15:44

into a frame of reference

1:15:47

of of the dimensionality or the domain

1:15:49

where i'm spending it

1:15:51

i mean i'm gonna have to translate my

1:15:53

monetary energy into rubles

1:15:55

or pesos or dollars or euros

1:15:58

or yen if i cross into one of those

1:16:00

domains

1:16:02

because it's their world not our world

1:16:05

right

1:16:06

right so if uh if the dollar didn't

1:16:10

inflate

1:16:12

then would bitcoin go up if the united

1:16:15

states had a

1:16:15

perfect monetary policy no inflation

1:16:19

could bitcoin succeed yeah it could

1:16:22

succeed

1:16:23

if people adopt it because it's got

1:16:25

technical advantages right

1:16:27

if they adopt it as a reserve asset i

1:16:29

mean their choice is that versus stock

1:16:31

versus bonds versus property

1:16:33

you still have the issue of how do i how

1:16:35

do i commute

1:16:36

energy through time and space so

1:16:40

i would still adopt it technology would

1:16:43

still get better

1:16:44

i mean if there was no inflation you

1:16:46

would still like the iphone

1:16:48

you know you would still like zooming to

1:16:50

me if there was no inflation

1:16:52

technology would get better and we'd

1:16:55

have productivity we'd be inventing

1:16:57

stuff

1:16:57

fusion better materials

1:17:01

etc and when we created stuff like

1:17:03

zooming

1:17:05

and we put together zoom with youtube we

1:17:08

would talk

1:17:09

and somebody go up on youtube and a

1:17:10

hundred thousand people would see it and

1:17:12

three people would have an idea and

1:17:13

something would happen that wouldn't

1:17:14

have happened otherwise

1:17:16

you don't need inflation for

1:17:19

bitcoin to be successful any more than

1:17:22

you need it for google or

1:17:23

apple or amazon to be successful it just

1:17:26

happens that that uh

1:17:30

in an inflationary environment it it

1:17:33

accelerates two percent

1:17:35

inflation will grow it two percent

1:17:37

faster

1:17:38

ten percent inflation will grow at ten

1:17:40

percent faster

1:17:42

in theory if a bond is is pure energy

1:17:45

and if bonds are inflating at 20

1:17:49

then that means that bitcoin will have a

1:17:52

real yield in that currency where you

1:17:54

see that

1:17:55

energy inflation and it'll be different

1:17:59

rel relative to the frame of reference

1:18:01

of every single

1:18:02

domain or every country depending upon

1:18:04

how they choose to manage their currency

1:18:06

they could in theory right i can peg to

1:18:08

the dollar like in singapore

1:18:10

or uae i paid to the dollar i could peg

1:18:12

the gold

1:18:13

i you know if i peg the gold

1:18:17

it'll be a three four percent

1:18:18

differential if i peg to

1:18:20

to the dollar it could be a 10 15

1:18:23

differential if i peg to the peso

1:18:24

it could be a 32 differential right so

1:18:27

all of

1:18:28

the value of bitcoin relative to the

1:18:31

people

1:18:31

in the ecosystem and the domain will

1:18:33

vary right and of course

1:18:35

that's why if i'm in lebanon or

1:18:37

argentina

1:18:39

this is even more insanely valuable to

1:18:43

than if i'm in switzerland

1:18:46

absolutely i would just maybe add that

1:18:49

two percent inflation would increase

1:18:51

adoption say by two percent but

1:18:54

as you increase the inflation rate i

1:18:56

think it would actually be non-linear

1:18:59

because if you take the extreme example

1:19:01

of hyperinflation

1:19:02

like everyone would pile out of their

1:19:04

currency into the dollar or to bitcoin

1:19:07

something that was more reliable

1:19:09

such that as you increase from say 2

1:19:12

to 10 people's inflation expectations

1:19:15

actually increase

1:19:16

which gives them further incentive to

1:19:18

move into bitcoin or something

1:19:19

alternative

1:19:21

it's it's multi-variant non-linear

1:19:24

and it's one dynamic is

1:19:27

hype hyperinflation panics people do it

1:19:31

high inflation pushes them into it low

1:19:34

inflation encourage them into it

1:19:36

but we're marking the value of the

1:19:39

bitcoin

1:19:40

to all the assets the tangible assets

1:19:43

all the products and services

1:19:44

and assets in the domain which is being

1:19:47

inflated

1:19:48

and that's also having an impact a frame

1:19:51

of reference

1:19:52

impact sorry so so the frame of

1:19:54

reference changes literally when it's

1:19:56

a million dollars for a cup of coffee

1:19:59

right

1:19:59

bitcoin is going to be worth a billion

1:20:02

dollars right

1:20:03

right right that's yeah that is the

1:20:05

number go up technology right

1:20:08

so so it becomes

1:20:11

it becomes powerful in that regard so

1:20:14

each of these four effects i i haven't

1:20:17

written them out as a formula

1:20:19

equation if i was writing i'd be writing

1:20:21

f of adoption

1:20:22

f function of utility function of

1:20:25

productivity

1:20:26

because in fact they're all vectors that

1:20:29

are all

1:20:29

time dynamically varying across many

1:20:32

dimensions each of these is a general

1:20:34

idea and they all

1:20:36

they all convolve with one another

1:20:39

in order to drive network power but when

1:20:42

you take them all into

1:20:44

all into effect then uh

1:20:47

then you just realize bitcoin is this

1:20:50

energy network

1:20:51

it's gonna gather energy and

1:20:54

as as people

1:20:57

perceive it they will adopt it

1:21:02

the utility is as people adopt it

1:21:05

they'll want to integrate it with more

1:21:07

utility

1:21:08

it's as as they do that

1:21:11

it's it's natural he we can expect human

1:21:14

productivity will increase

1:21:16

we can expect technology to advance if

1:21:19

we only have point one percent adoption

1:21:22

it's like having all of the gas in one

1:21:24

percent of the chamber and i take away

1:21:26

the barrier you can expect it well

1:21:28

it's not getting less the genie is out

1:21:30

of the bottle the genie is going to

1:21:32

expand

1:21:34

and then you know betting on

1:21:37

some governments to inflate is is not a

1:21:40

highly risky bet you can yeah

1:21:42

that's a good bet probably you'll get

1:21:44

that and

1:21:46

that is that is uh

1:21:49

you know bitcoin network power dynamic

1:21:52

right that is the dynamic there and and

1:21:54

everybody

1:21:56

everybody that's marketing bitcoin

1:21:58

they're contributing to it

1:21:59

everyone working on bitcoin technology

1:22:01

isn't contributing to it

1:22:03

everyone simply holding bitcoins

1:22:04

contributing to it

1:22:06

everybody that hates it or everybody

1:22:08

everybody attacking every

1:22:10

other asset or every time another asset

1:22:12

fails or another currency weakens it

1:22:14

contributes to it

1:22:15

and then just the relentless passage of

1:22:17

time contributes to it

1:22:20

i think this is a brilliant way and

1:22:23

unique way

1:22:24

to look at the network effects of

1:22:25

bitcoin um

1:22:27

and i also find it interesting that at

1:22:29

the center of this vortex

1:22:32

is the highest expression of truth we've

1:22:34

ever had right it

1:22:35

bitcoin is literally this system of

1:22:38

converting energy into indisputable

1:22:40

truth

1:22:41

about who owns what utx owes and the 21

1:22:45

million again

1:22:46

is kind of like the third certainty in

1:22:48

life we've had historically had death

1:22:50

and taxes

1:22:51

and now in the socio-economic sphere at

1:22:53

least we have this number

1:22:55

21 million we know that can't be

1:22:57

violated and that's what's spurring all

1:22:59

these effects

1:23:00

bitcoin is a cyber economy

1:23:05

based upon the principles of truth

1:23:08

respecting the laws of thermodynamics

1:23:11

respecting

1:23:12

newton's laws you know if

1:23:15

if you're going to worship the goddess

1:23:17

of energy you better

1:23:19

respect the laws of conservation of

1:23:22

energy and and it is that

1:23:25

conservative monetary energy system

1:23:29

the first conservative

1:23:32

monetary energy system that we've ever

1:23:35

invented

1:23:36

anybody can choose to be a member any

1:23:38

individual any family

1:23:40

any company any government can choose to

1:23:42

be a member

1:23:43

of this closed energy system

1:23:47

and conservative energy is truth it

1:23:50

starts with this simple principle energy

1:23:52

can be

1:23:53

neither created nor destroyed

1:23:56

it's like it might by the way you can

1:23:58

lose control of it

1:24:00

right you have it you can lose control

1:24:02

of it and it can dissipate and

1:24:04

and you can you can lose it and so that

1:24:07

doesn't mean you can be

1:24:08

lazy or sloppy you have to channel the

1:24:11

energy

1:24:12

but bitcoin is the best system in the

1:24:14

history of the world for controlling

1:24:16

storing and channeling

1:24:18

energy and that's why it's destined to

1:24:21

be successful

1:24:22

i i love i i've never heard it put like

1:24:24

that the conservative energy is

1:24:26

truth that ties it back to how we

1:24:29

started this conversation

1:24:31

of the eagle dragging the goat off the

1:24:33

cliff side right it's

1:24:35

employing the least energy necessary to

1:24:37

accomplish the greatest result

1:24:39

and that's what you want to bet on that

1:24:41

is the winning strategy on what you want

1:24:42

to bet

1:24:43

and it points towards the kernel of all

1:24:46

economics

1:24:47

which is scarcity gives things market

1:24:49

value

1:24:51

scarcity is the driver of market value

1:24:53

things that are hard to obtain

1:24:55

and have utility are what give them

1:24:57

value in the marketplace

1:24:59

the ultimate scarce asset in the

1:25:02

universe

1:25:03

is energy yes you can't create more of

1:25:07

right i give this much to you you can't

1:25:10

wiggle your fingers and make it twice as

1:25:13

much right

1:25:14

if you lose it it's gone yeah

1:25:17

and and you can play all these games in

1:25:19

thermodynamics it's a great profes it's

1:25:21

a great

1:25:23

field because everybody think they're

1:25:25

all looking for that perpetual motion

1:25:27

machine you know and

1:25:28

and they could you know the laws of the

1:25:30

thermodynamics you know

1:25:32

we used to paraphrase them you know at

1:25:34

mit in a snarky way we'd say

1:25:36

you can't win you can't break even and

1:25:39

you can't get out of the game

1:25:42

the laws of thermodynamics it's like

1:25:45

from a layman's point of view

1:25:46

you can't cheat there is no cheating

1:25:50

in thermodynamics it might look like you

1:25:52

got something for nothing

1:25:54

even maxwell's demon you know he he

1:25:57

paused well

1:25:58

maybe maybe i could actually

1:26:02

fight a reverse entropy and get order

1:26:05

from disorder by dividing a chamber and

1:26:08

i have a demon and there's a little door

1:26:10

molecules are bouncing around and what

1:26:13

if my demon opened the door when the

1:26:15

molecule bounced from the right to the

1:26:17

left and closed it before the door

1:26:19

bounced from the left to the right i

1:26:21

could over time with randomness get all

1:26:23

of the bouncy molecules on one side of

1:26:26

the chamber

1:26:27

and i could uh reduce entropy

1:26:31

well and they're like it couldn't figure

1:26:32

out that they called it maxwell's demon

1:26:35

what's wrong with that argument like

1:26:36

doesn't that break the law of

1:26:37

thermodynamics

1:26:38

and the answer came along a hundred

1:26:39

years later with some ibm computer

1:26:41

scientists pointed out

1:26:44

that information is building up in the

1:26:47

head of the demon

1:26:48

and and the information you know

1:26:52

is in itself creating entropy and so

1:26:55

oh you're not cheating once you actually

1:26:58

account for all the information in the

1:27:00

system

1:27:01

and all the disorder in the system

1:27:04

and all the energy in the system it did

1:27:07

it did

1:27:07

respect the laws of thermodynamics

1:27:11

you can't cheat time you can't cheat

1:27:14

space

1:27:15

i mean there is ultimately conservation

1:27:18

isaac newton right all of newton's laws

1:27:21

conservation of mass conservation of

1:27:25

energy f equals m a

1:27:26

it's it's the basics of physics the

1:27:29

basis of mechanics

1:27:31

it's the basis of every machine we built

1:27:33

that works

1:27:34

right right it's the basis of of all of

1:27:38

our heat exchange and

1:27:40

and um it hasn't

1:27:43

been i mean scientists and engineers

1:27:48

don't have a high opinion of economists

1:27:51

one of the reasons why is it it hasn't

1:27:53

been important

1:27:55

for economists to understand closed

1:27:58

systems

1:27:59

isolated systems you know servo

1:28:03

mechanisms

1:28:04

you know conservation of mass and energy

1:28:07

equals mc

1:28:08

equals mc matters what it means is if

1:28:11

there's

1:28:11

mass it becomes exponentially expensive

1:28:14

to move it around

1:28:16

e is the energy you want to move stuff

1:28:18

fast you need to take the mass to zero

1:28:21

and that's how you move stuff fast so

1:28:25

you know economists maybe maybe what

1:28:27

they were doing

1:28:28

didn't matter before bitcoin like right

1:28:31

you could just say maybe bitcoin is the

1:28:33

first time that

1:28:34

technology crashed

1:28:37

into a economic you have you have energy

1:28:41

you have technology you have math

1:28:44

crashing into economics and now you

1:28:46

couldn't really be a competent economist

1:28:49

without appreciating closed systems

1:28:52

energy efficiency

1:28:56

of you know everything right

1:28:59

another thing this calls to mind and

1:29:01

maybe a unique way to look at bitcoin

1:29:04

we can't break the laws of

1:29:06

thermodynamics

1:29:08

those are the rules of the game within

1:29:10

which we are operating

1:29:12

in physical reality and bitcoin in a way

1:29:15

maps onto that system very nicely

1:29:17

because it gives us an economic system

1:29:19

in which we cannot break the laws right

1:29:21

critically respects and aligns itself

1:29:25

with the laws of thermodynamics in the

1:29:28

economic sphere

1:29:29

and another thing this made me think of

1:29:32

this is a framework i got from you on

1:29:34

inflation was that

1:29:36

you know cpi is low but everything you

1:29:38

want is inflating

1:29:40

rapidly and it's almost as the i guess

1:29:43

you could probably plot that on the

1:29:44

spectrum as the things that are more

1:29:45

energy intensive to create

1:29:47

are inflating more rapidly right and the

1:29:50

things that are created easily

1:29:52

are tweaked and controlled and dumped

1:29:53

into that cpi bucket

1:29:55

because because the laws of

1:29:57

thermodynamics apply

1:29:59

even if you don't wish they did right

1:30:03

yeah you can't get out of the game

1:30:06

no free lunch in the universe right

1:30:09

[Music]

1:30:17

all right guys that was episode 5

1:30:17

of the sailor series and man what a

1:30:20

big episode we hit on some major

1:30:22

concepts

1:30:24

today um i thought it was super

1:30:27

interesting as always

1:30:28

mr sailor brings the heat uh i think

1:30:32

first of all we talked about how fiat

1:30:35

currency

1:30:36

was basically implemented

1:30:39

as a means of augmenting the portability

1:30:42

of gold right because

1:30:43

gold is heavy and physical it's

1:30:46

difficult and expensive to transact it

1:30:49

across space

1:30:51

although gold is really good at holding

1:30:53

its value across time

1:30:54

because it had a high relative scarcity

1:30:58

and but the point there

1:31:02

that that say brought up is that

1:31:03

although fiat's good at moving

1:31:06

or we could say gold-backed paper

1:31:08

currencies are good at moving value

1:31:10

across

1:31:10

space right that was their purpose of

1:31:12

introduction that they actually

1:31:13

suffer because they they have all of

1:31:16

these frictions between different

1:31:17

regulatory and intermediary

1:31:20

environments such that when you try and

1:31:23

cash say from china to the us uh you hit

1:31:26

different types

1:31:27

of capital controls and whatnot so it

1:31:29

can be very

1:31:30

expensive and cumbersome to actually

1:31:32

move fiat currency across

1:31:34

uh different jurisdictional domains

1:31:35

which which actually inhibits

1:31:37

its original purpose which was to

1:31:39

increase the portability of money

1:31:42

and i like the analogy he drew

1:31:45

with uh a boat right actually

1:31:48

if you consider that the moving value

1:31:51

across space

1:31:52

function of money uh is something like

1:31:55

uh putting goods on a boat putting uh

1:31:57

selling it across the sea

1:31:59

he's saying that effectively uh

1:32:03

that you know gold was a dinghy

1:32:07

very uh unlikely to move value across

1:32:10

space well whereas fiat currency might

1:32:13

be something more like a wooden

1:32:14

ship uh a little bit better at doing

1:32:17

that but still

1:32:18

not ideal whereas bitcoin is actually

1:32:21

like a steel

1:32:23

ship uh you know it's it's an extremely

1:32:26

strong protocol

1:32:29

uh and as long as you you know you

1:32:30

maintain steel by painting it

1:32:33

it's basically indestructible so the

1:32:35

analogy there being

1:32:37

so long as bitcoin is maintained by the

1:32:39

mining network

1:32:40

right which is um which generates its

1:32:42

revenues through

1:32:43

the block subsidy and transaction fees

1:32:46

that it essentially

1:32:47

makes the the monetary network itself uh

1:32:50

you know self-reinforcing

1:32:52

and indestructible in a lot of ways and

1:32:56

the last analogy that steel's super

1:32:58

repairable right if you weld

1:32:59

a steel plate onto the whole of the ship

1:33:02

the weld actually has a higher

1:33:03

uh tensile strength than the original

1:33:05

steel itself

1:33:07

which i think we can analogize to

1:33:09

bitcoin is that it can

1:33:11

absorb superior competitive features

1:33:15

from the marketplace so it can actually

1:33:17

repair or improve

1:33:18

itself in a way that makes it even

1:33:20

stronger than its virtual form

1:33:23

so that was a great analogy and the

1:33:25

other one i liked that we touched on was

1:33:26

the vacuum sealing of food

1:33:29

which if you think about it is just a

1:33:31

way of restricting

1:33:33

the stored energy whether it's food or

1:33:36

money

1:33:37

from contact with entropy of the

1:33:38

environment right so in the case of

1:33:40

vacuum sealing we're removing all of the

1:33:42

all the microorganisms that might exist

1:33:45

in that air or water or moisture

1:33:48

from the package itself such that none

1:33:51

of them can attack the energy content

1:33:53

stored therein

1:33:54

and the analogy there being

1:33:59

getting the entropy or uncertainty out

1:34:01

of the monetary channel

1:34:03

we can think of the sha 256 algorithm as

1:34:07

an um a an encrypted valve

1:34:10

uh encrypted vacuum ceiling of the

1:34:13

monetary energy stored in the bitcoin

1:34:15

network

1:34:16

so it gives it this super high

1:34:18

resistance to impurities

1:34:20

uh or uncertainty or um

1:34:23

nefarious actors right or even even um

1:34:26

that doesn't have to be nefarious

1:34:27

necessarily uh depending on your

1:34:29

perspective on social banks but it gets

1:34:31

the uncertainty

1:34:32

out of your money right it gives it this

1:34:34

energetic vacuum sale so i thought that

1:34:36

was a really

1:34:36

cool analogy too and we talked about

1:34:40

money being power and the money itself

1:34:43

is the super

1:34:45

of all power that humans have been able

1:34:48

to create in the world

1:34:50

and again the physics definition which i

1:34:52

really like

1:34:54

for power because it ties back to the

1:34:55

importance of proof of work

1:34:57

power is the capacity to do work over

1:35:01

right so to to be able to apply force

1:35:04

over distance over time that's what

1:35:05

uh power actually means and

1:35:09

it makes sense that we would generate

1:35:12

power or be able to um

1:35:14

allocate energy into a power source

1:35:16

network through proof of work

1:35:18

right that's what gold mining was and

1:35:20

that's what the mining expenditure

1:35:21

related to bitcoin is

1:35:23

and so we think of money as this amalgam

1:35:27

of all the powers that human beings have

1:35:29

had over time

1:35:31

uh and look at bitcoin through that lens

1:35:34

we see that

1:35:35

the power in the network uh which was

1:35:38

another analogy used was kind of like

1:35:40

the voltage in a closed source system

1:35:42

right so

1:35:43

the supply of bitcoin doesn't move

1:35:46

but the amount of energy stored in the

1:35:48

network can be is the only thing that

1:35:50

can be increased

1:35:51

so it's a perfectly closed system that

1:35:54

mass can either exit or leave but only

1:35:57

energy can be added to it

1:35:58

and so that way we can think of uh the

1:36:01

power of the energy of the bitcoin

1:36:03

energy network as its price effectively

1:36:06

and we dug in a little bit of that and

1:36:10

it's talked about you know the stock the

1:36:13

flow model and bitcoin supply issuance

1:36:15

it's not actually to supply that's

1:36:18

driving the value

1:36:19

necessarily uh as we go into later that

1:36:21

it's more uh

1:36:22

function of its utility but

1:36:25

uh this because it's not as i said the

1:36:28

impossibility

1:36:30

to produce something is not what makes

1:36:31

it valuable

1:36:33

it's actually the impossibility of

1:36:35

producing something that already has

1:36:37

relevance to someone's goal directed

1:36:39

action right that's so so value is this

1:36:41

subjective

1:36:43

uh quality where if a particular

1:36:47

object or even a service or piece of

1:36:50

knowledge

1:36:51

is relevant to you accomplishing the

1:36:54

aims of your goal directed out

1:36:55

action if it's an accelerant for you

1:36:58

towards achieving your goals

1:36:59

then we could say that thing has value

1:37:03

now the value even if something has an

1:37:05

accelerant towards you achieving your

1:37:07

say like oxygen right we all have the

1:37:09

aim of breathing and surviving

1:37:11

it doesn't actually have a lot of value

1:37:13

because it has no scarcity

1:37:15

right so the scarcity can amplify the

1:37:18

value but the value itself

1:37:20

is actually a function of its the in the

1:37:23

individual good service or knowledge is

1:37:26

relevance to your goal directed action

1:37:29

and uh so that we

1:37:33

we actually looked at this like to put

1:37:35

in these buckets of what actually

1:37:36

defines the monetary network value of

1:37:38

bitcoin

1:37:39

and he classified it as adoption

1:37:41

inflation

1:37:42

utility um

1:37:45

and i love this quote he said that

1:37:49

bitcoin is quote an encrypted energy

1:37:51

crucible in which we store the energy of

1:37:53

life so we've touched on repeatedly in

1:37:57

the show that

1:37:59

money is life force right it's meta

1:38:01

energy that allows us to access

1:38:04

essentially any other form of energy

1:38:05

that's available in the marketplace

1:38:07

[Music]

1:38:09

and in that way it's we

1:38:12

need a system that

1:38:16

maps onto the scarcity of the thing that

1:38:19

it represents

1:38:20

that makes sense so when thermodynamics

1:38:22

energy can neither be created or

1:38:24

destroyed

1:38:25

so it makes sense that the money which

1:38:27

best maps on to that would become

1:38:30

naturally selected in the marketplace

1:38:34

and then went into another definition of

1:38:36

money this is one i've used

1:38:37

several times i say that money is an

1:38:40

insurance policy on the uncertainty

1:38:42

of the future right the interracial

1:38:45

uncertainty of the future no matter how

1:38:47

much technology advances we're never

1:38:50

going to get rid of uncertainty

1:38:51

um and uncertainty itself by the way is

1:38:55

another expression of entropy

1:38:56

right and we live in a universe pervaded

1:38:59

by entropy

1:38:59

and in fact entropy is the only thing

1:39:01

that defines the flow of time in the

1:39:03

universe

1:39:04

everything all physical processes are

1:39:06

symmetric but

1:39:07

the one thing that imparts a

1:39:09

directionality to time

1:39:11

is this flow of entropy things becoming

1:39:13

increasingly

1:39:14

uh uncertain or breaking down or more

1:39:17

chaotic

1:39:17

over time left unmaintained

1:39:21

and so money since it gives us

1:39:24

pure optionality in the marketplace it's

1:39:26

like no matter what unforeseen

1:39:28

consequence we encounter

1:39:30

money is the best tool for dealing with

1:39:31

that uncertainty because it gives us a

1:39:33

claim

1:39:33

on the collective savings of the world

1:39:35

so we can access

1:39:37

whatever it is we may need assuming it's

1:39:39

available to marketplace to resolve that

1:39:40

uncertainty

1:39:41

when we encounter it and sailor made a

1:39:45

uh caveat to this analogy because he

1:39:48

said that

1:39:49

one thing about an insurance policy is

1:39:50

that it carries a lot of counterparty

1:39:53

so even today you know we're sitting in

1:39:56

2020 with this global pandemic

1:39:58

striking there's many many insurance

1:40:00

policies

1:40:01

are not being paid out because they had

1:40:03

exclusion exclusions for pandemic or

1:40:06

other

1:40:07

you know forced major i think as they

1:40:08

call a lot of them

1:40:10

and so we could say that bitcoin is

1:40:12

actually even more valuable than just a

1:40:14

standard insurance policy in that it's a

1:40:16

non-counterparty

1:40:17

insurance policy right it's a money that

1:40:20

does not have any political exposure

1:40:24

um to to pay out right so if you

1:40:27

if you're holding cash in a form that

1:40:29

can't be

1:40:30

confiscated inflated stopped

1:40:34

then no matter what uh eventuality you

1:40:37

encounter no matter what circumstances

1:40:39

you encounter

1:40:40

in dealing with the uncertainties of

1:40:41

life you have a pool of pure capital

1:40:44

optionality basically with bitcoin

1:40:46

and that cannot be said for any other

1:40:48

asset there is no other money that can

1:40:50

provide you

1:40:51

that degree of assurance and so

1:40:56

when this is i mentioned that quote that

1:40:58

this is from carl schmidt that

1:41:00

sovereign is he who decides the

1:41:01

exception

1:41:03

so this is really important because by

1:41:05

totally removing

1:41:07

the counterparty risks from money

1:41:09

bitcoin has

1:41:10

removed all exceptions from money or the

1:41:13

monetary policy if you will

1:41:16

and by doing that right you've taken

1:41:18

away the ability to make exceptions

1:41:20

in in the game of bitcoin so

1:41:23

all of a sudden sovereign is he who

1:41:25

makes the exception if no one can make

1:41:27

the exception

1:41:28

then no one's sovereign right so there's

1:41:30

no sovereign over participants in the

1:41:32

network

1:41:33

which means you've maximized the

1:41:35

individual sovereignty of

1:41:37

all network participants and this is

1:41:39

something that's really radical like you

1:41:41

really have to think about this for a

1:41:42

long time

1:41:45

and again we could define sovereignty

1:41:48

somewhat simply as just the authority to

1:41:50

act as one sees fit

1:41:52

right the ability to conduct an action

1:41:55

consistent with your purpose and aims

1:41:57

and bitcoin is the only money in history

1:41:59

that maximizes our ability to do that

1:42:02

so as i argue actually one of my latest

1:42:04

pieces bitcoin and hope

1:42:06

that bitcoin is money purpose built for

1:42:08

entrepreneurship

1:42:10

right it maximizes not only their

1:42:12

sovereignty but also their

1:42:13

accountability

1:42:14

uh and their ability to engage in

1:42:17

adventure right and to engage in

1:42:21

business dealings and

1:42:24

taking on risk to try and solve problems

1:42:26

for for the market

1:42:28

and generally value the process so

1:42:32

i thought that was a really interesting

1:42:33

way to look at it and then we got into

1:42:37

and i love this the way he described

1:42:40

debt as almost an anti-energy where

1:42:44

you've actually instead of having this

1:42:47

capital cushion against uncertainty

1:42:51

that debt actually can amplify

1:42:55

the the negative consequences of

1:42:57

encountering uncertainty now it can also

1:42:59

be used to enhance the positive

1:43:00

consequences right that's what leverage

1:43:02

is it will amplify your gains or losses

1:43:05

but it tends to be a poor strategy over

1:43:09

time because

1:43:10

the one thing that's unavoidable in an

1:43:12

entropic universe is volatility

1:43:14

so it makes volatility

1:43:18

you know positive volatility more

1:43:19

beneficial but it can make negative

1:43:21

volatility

1:43:23

it can cause you total destruction right

1:43:25

it puts you at risk of ruin which

1:43:27

uh if you've read any of telugu's work

1:43:28

is just you know the number one thing we

1:43:30

almost avoid

1:43:32

so we got into some specific examples of

1:43:36

fiat currency it's actually it's because

1:43:39

depreciating over time and large

1:43:42

corporations

1:43:43

have access to really cheap loans it's

1:43:45

actually incentivizing them

1:43:47

to take negative treasury positions

1:43:49

right to borrow money

1:43:52

on the market at low rates and buy back

1:43:54

their own stock because they

1:43:55

because again you would expect that the

1:43:58

scarcity of that stock

1:44:00

and the performance of the underlying

1:44:01

capital would tend to outperform the

1:44:04

borrowing costs

1:44:05

in a market where uh the cost of

1:44:08

of of borrowing is suppressed by central

1:44:11

banks effectively

1:44:12

so this puts corporations in a weird

1:44:16

position because it's causing

1:44:17

the incentive structure is such that it

1:44:19

causes them to fragilize their own

1:44:21

business model

1:44:22

into instead of having a positive

1:44:25

buffer against uncertainty in their

1:44:26

treasury they actually carry negative

1:44:29

treasury balances which can make them

1:44:32

subject to their creditors right the

1:44:34

wishes of their creditors which

1:44:36

again sovereign is he who makes the

1:44:38

exception so all of a sudden

1:44:40

by uh marginalizing your own capital

1:44:43

position

1:44:44

and putting yourself in the hands of

1:44:45

creditors you've now you've now

1:44:48

given away your sovereignty if you will

1:44:50

to a creditor and and

1:44:52

taking it away from yourself and your

1:44:54

shareholders

1:44:56

so i thought that was brilliant as well

1:44:59

and then we went into

1:45:01

the politics of currency and this is

1:45:05

this is another way to look at the

1:45:07

importance of bitcoin is that

1:45:09

you know people for years have talked

1:45:11

about getting the money out of politics

1:45:13

right if you get the money in politics

1:45:14

that would make for a more fair

1:45:15

equitable system but

1:45:17

bitcoin sort of flipped out on its head

1:45:18

and said for you're getting money out of

1:45:20

politics right

1:45:21

that would require legislating away

1:45:24

human nature

1:45:25

somehow just in a way that's not

1:45:26

possible what we can do instead

1:45:28

with bitcoin is just get politics out of

1:45:30

money right all of a sudden we have a

1:45:32

money that

1:45:33

can't be manipulated or confiscated

1:45:36

based on political will

1:45:38

and say there's analogy here is that

1:45:41

politics actually

1:45:42

toxify the currency and we could think

1:45:46

quantitative easing or monetary

1:45:48

inflation is actually like putting in

1:45:50

healthy individual

1:45:52

on chemotherapy just to enrich the

1:45:56

physician the physician being the

1:45:57

government right it's like

1:45:58

the physician is administering this

1:46:02

uh quote-unquote medicine to the patient

1:46:05

but the patient

1:46:06

you know being the productive economy

1:46:07

doesn't actually need it right

1:46:09

quantitative easing again it's not

1:46:11

infusing any new value into an economy

1:46:14

it's just reallocating it away from

1:46:17

those holding

1:46:18

the fiat currency as a store value to

1:46:20

those holding assets

1:46:22

that that inflate right typically real

1:46:23

estate stock reliably serious assets

1:46:26

so the the other part of that is that

1:46:29

over time

1:46:30

you know this analogy holds because like

1:46:33

even sugar

1:46:34

or or drugs like maybe heroin or

1:46:37

chemotherapy

1:46:38

it loses its efficacy over time so the

1:46:40

stimulative effects

1:46:41

of fiat currency inflation actually

1:46:44

diminish over time as well

1:46:46

and that's what we're seeing today at

1:46:47

2020 it's that central banks have

1:46:49

kind of pushed all the lovers uh to the

1:46:52

metal so to speak and they're getting

1:46:54

little economic response as a result

1:46:58

and it through that biological lens we

1:47:01

could consider

1:47:03

hyperinflation as being a form of like

1:47:06

socioeconomic organ

1:47:08

failure or a toxic shock or all the

1:47:11

sudden these energy centers right in the

1:47:13

form of our institutions or economic

1:47:15

networks

1:47:16

the lifeblood that flows through them

1:47:18

and currency has been so

1:47:20

diminished in terms of its informational

1:47:22

and energetic carrying capacity

1:47:24

that the institutions start to come

1:47:25

unravel right people can no longer

1:47:31

interoperate between themselves and

1:47:31

between these institutions that maintain

1:47:34

the trust that maintains social cohesion

1:47:37

is basically

1:47:37

diluted along with the currency so i

1:47:40

thought that was a great

1:47:41

great way to look at it as well and then

1:47:46

i think this is just a wonderful

1:47:49

argument this next point

1:47:50

on how to just diffuse anyone's

1:47:53

counterpoint

1:47:55

to bitcoin once assuming they have a

1:47:57

relatively

1:47:58

sophisticated understanding of a store

1:48:00

value function

1:48:03

and it's just a very simple thought

1:48:04

experiment how do you store value

1:48:07

effectively for 100 years into the

1:48:10

future

1:48:10

how can i store value today in a

1:48:14

uh the most lossless way

1:48:19

to transmit at 100 years into the future

1:48:22

right so we could say all right what's

1:48:25

being used today is stored by

1:48:26

fang stocks right or other high

1:48:28

performing equities

1:48:30

they're being used today why not why not

1:48:32

those so the problem

1:48:34

with those is that clearly by owning an

1:48:36

equity you're taking on industry

1:48:38

regulatory and counterparty risk um

1:48:41

there's not really many equities you

1:48:43

could have invested in 100 years ago

1:48:45

that would still hold their value today

1:48:47

maybe none

1:48:48

actually i'm not i could be wrong on

1:48:50

that but very very few so you have to be

1:48:52

you know the stock picker of the century

1:48:55

so to speak for that to work so you

1:48:58

could say oh well let's look at

1:48:59

something like real estate

1:49:01

real estate also suffers from all of

1:49:03

those issues it does have reliable

1:49:05

scarcity but

1:49:07

it's an asset that's out in the open it

1:49:08

can't be hidden in the event of

1:49:11

a war or an escalation of property taxes

1:49:14

or even just

1:49:15

outright confiscation as in the us we

1:49:17

have imminent domain

1:49:18

your property could just be taken away

1:49:20

completely

1:49:22

even if it worked perfectly say you're

1:49:24

paying a low property tax rate of

1:49:26

two percent a year you're still getting

1:49:28

cut in half every 35 years

1:49:31

so that's not a very effective way

1:49:34

um so that would take you kind of the

1:49:37

historically the most trust minimized

1:49:39

asset

1:49:40

or trust of store value which is gold um

1:49:43

but as we covered in the last episode

1:49:45

you know government or i'm sorry gold

1:49:47

two percent inflation per year if you're

1:49:49

trying to

1:49:50

circumvent the counterparty risk related

1:49:52

to it you need to move it

1:49:53

right every quarter every few years that

1:49:56

can be

1:49:57

another 25 basis points to 1 per year

1:50:01

so now even looking at gold as the

1:50:04

hardest economic store value

1:50:05

historically

1:50:07

uh you're talking about getting cut in

1:50:08

half every 35 to 22 years

1:50:11

um and over 100 year period you're

1:50:13

approaching a 90 loss of value

1:50:15

you could say fiat currency right the us

1:50:18

dollar us dollar is strong today but

1:50:20

uh i would argue that there's scarcely a

1:50:23

worse choice than that

1:50:25

um that is the wealth storage medium

1:50:29

that at least holds its value over time

1:50:31

i think your best case of holding a fiat

1:50:34

currency for a hundred years at least

1:50:35

the past hundred years in the us dollar

1:50:37

you're

1:50:38

above 99 total loss of value

1:50:42

and that's if you pick the right

1:50:43

currency and yours doesn't hyperinflate

1:50:46

is invaded by another country and the

1:50:48

authorized or whatever it may be

1:50:49

so you're somewhere between 99 and 100

1:50:51

loss of total value and fiat currency

1:50:54

so what does that leave you with leaves

1:50:57

you with bitcoin

1:50:58

right there's only one store of value

1:51:00

that is totally free of counter party

1:51:02

has a fully diluted or totally

1:51:06

uh a universally transparent and

1:51:08

predictable

1:51:09

uh supply schedule so we all know the

1:51:11

inflation there's zero unexpected

1:51:12

inflation

1:51:14

um and it can be stored in a way

1:51:17

in any number of ways um in these custom

1:51:21

high security ultra high security

1:51:23

custody schemas right like multi-sig

1:51:26

and things of that sort so i think you

1:51:28

just zoom out

1:51:29

on the store value argument it's a clear

1:51:32

winner

1:51:33

right there's just not even competition

1:51:36

uh i mean your second best choice is

1:51:38

maybe i guess gold

1:51:40

or possibly real estate and you're still

1:51:41

looking at you know

1:51:44

say in the case of real estate if

1:51:45

everything went perfectly uh

1:51:48

and you only had your two percent

1:51:51

property tax per year you're looking at

1:51:53

like an 87

1:51:54

total loss in 100 years so

1:51:58

where is bitcoin you have essentially

1:52:01

right because we it's not that bitcoin

1:52:03

doesn't have inflation in the system but

1:52:04

the inflation

1:52:06

is it's a fully diluted cap table if you

1:52:08

will everyone knows what it is so you're

1:52:09

playing off of 21 million even though

1:52:11

say maybe 18.5 million bitcoin

1:52:13

have only been issued so far to date so

1:52:16

i thought that was brilliant

1:52:17

great way to look at it zoom out in the

1:52:20

store value arena bitcoin

1:52:22

is undisputed the best contender i mean

1:52:26

the one argument against it would be

1:52:28

it's new right it's 12 years old so how

1:52:31

could you argue it's going to last for

1:52:32

100 years

1:52:33

um and that just comes down to faith and

1:52:36

kind of the existing track record of

1:52:37

bitcoin and the protocol

1:52:39

and the math underpinning it so um

1:52:42

it's not a surefire bet but assuming

1:52:45

bitcoin continues to function

1:52:47

in the same flawless way it has to date

1:52:49

then it's not even a contest

1:52:51

bitcoin's far and away the best store

1:52:52

value

1:52:55

and so that got us into a discussion

1:52:58

about

1:53:00

history and sailor made the point that

1:53:04

the greatest lesson of history

1:53:08

was that the most organized group of

1:53:10

people win

1:53:12

clearly right we are more than the sum

1:53:15

of our parts

1:53:16

when we can coordinate our efforts and

1:53:20

again by getting the politics out of

1:53:22

money

1:53:23

bitcoiners are essentially perfectly

1:53:27

aligned

1:53:28

um we can compete and fight amongst

1:53:31

ourselves and argue and all of these

1:53:33

things but

1:53:34

the one thing that doesn't change it's

1:53:36

not subject to politics

1:53:37

is 21 million right 21 million

1:53:41

no confiscating only private keys can

1:53:43

generate

1:53:44

and spend transactions these these

1:53:47

fundamental rules of money that are not

1:53:49

subject to politics

1:53:52

enhances the cohesion of bitcoiners

1:53:55

effectively

1:53:56

and so that's another perspective on why

1:53:59

bitcoin wins it's just going to have a

1:54:01

more organized more disciplined

1:54:03

uh force basically behind it human force

1:54:07

and the way

1:54:08

i tweeted this the other day i really

1:54:10

liked

1:54:12

uh just putting it this way and this

1:54:14

gets back to the sun tzu thing that

1:54:15

territory is the most decisive factor

1:54:19

in determining the outcome of any battle

1:54:21

and as bitcoiners

1:54:23

the moral intellectual and philosophical

1:54:26

high ground that we occupy

1:54:28

is virtually unassailable so in my mind

1:54:31

that's why we win

1:54:32

right we we are operating

1:54:35

from a place uh that is the most

1:54:39

protected and gives us the most

1:54:40

optionality against all competing

1:54:42

systems

1:54:43

uh and therefore causes

1:54:46

uh that causes bitcoin to out-compete

1:54:50

all the other systems over time right

1:54:52

it's just darwinian

1:54:54

and then going back into

1:54:57

the sov or store value versus medial

1:54:59

exchange argument

1:55:00

sailor had a brilliant way of describing

1:55:02

this bitcoins a high frequency store

1:55:04

value

1:55:05

and a low frequency medium of exchange

1:55:07

so that every second

1:55:09

you're holding bitcoin it's performing

1:55:11

its function right anyone that's saying

1:55:13

bitcoin doesn't have utility they don't

1:55:14

understand

1:55:15

inflation they don't understand store

1:55:17

value because

1:55:18

every second you're holding bitcoin and

1:55:20

it's adhering to that fixed and

1:55:22

diminishing supply schedule

1:55:24

and you're storing it in a custody model

1:55:27

that's

1:55:27

really difficult to confiscate or

1:55:29

corrupt

1:55:31

it's performing it's it's function right

1:55:33

it's storing your

1:55:34

monetary life energy in a encrypted

1:55:37

vacuum sealed container um

1:55:41

and you know one of the things he said

1:55:43

there was

1:55:45

in the sphere of money bitcoin is

1:55:46

immortal energy we've never had anything

1:55:48

like this

1:55:50

um and this too

1:55:53

got into we got into a little bit of the

1:55:55

discussion about

1:56:01

how preserving this wealth will impact

1:56:01

the relationship

1:56:03

bitcoin's relationship with fiat

1:56:04

currency so bitcoin which is

1:56:06

historically yielding about 20

1:56:08

annually if you can go into the market

1:56:10

and borrow at five percent

1:56:12

you have an incentive to never sell you

1:56:15

have an incentive to just keep

1:56:16

accumulating bitcoin and

1:56:18

borrowing uh up to these intelligent

1:56:20

thresholds right of

1:56:21

ideally never being marked to market uh

1:56:24

and having

1:56:24

favorable loan covenants your incentive

1:56:26

is to borrow and acquire bitcoin

1:56:29

and um that again he analogized this to

1:56:34

generational wealth is handled where a

1:56:37

lot of families just own

1:56:38

say a block in new york city and they

1:56:40

just borrow against it little by little

1:56:42

over time

1:56:44

so say this point in the sphere of money

1:56:49

bitcoin operates as this immortal

1:56:52

energy if you will and the incentives

1:56:56

related to bitcoin

1:56:57

are interesting because historically

1:56:59

it's been yielding let's say 20

1:57:01

annualized return

1:57:02

so if you can go into the marketplace

1:57:04

and borrow let's say five percent or

1:57:06

anything below the annualized return

1:57:08

then you actually have an incentive to

1:57:11

do so to actually go out and borrow

1:57:13

and acquire more bitcoin and more

1:57:15

recently

1:57:16

this was recorded before sailor's latest

1:57:18

announcement but most recently

1:57:19

uh he actually used microstrategy's

1:57:21

balance sheet

1:57:23

to go out and raise some convertible

1:57:26

notes

1:57:27

and do this very thing or you can borrow

1:57:30

at a rate below

1:57:31

bitcoin's expected annualized return and

1:57:33

he's using it to acquire additional

1:57:35

bitcoin

1:57:36

this this points for something really

1:57:38

interesting pierre richard wrote a great

1:57:40

piece about this years ago

1:57:42

um i think it's called speculative

1:57:44

attacks

1:57:45

and so what's effectively happening is

1:57:49

since bitcoin tends to outperform

1:57:53

broader investment indices right and

1:57:56

since

1:57:58

debt and interest rates i'm sorry excuse

1:58:00

me interest rates

1:58:01

are being artificially suppressed by

1:58:03

interest by central banks

1:58:06

this opens up an attack vector on the

1:58:08

fiat currency itself

1:58:10

where market actors can go into the

1:58:12

marketplace borrow fiat

1:58:14

and then actually sell that fiat to

1:58:16

acquire bitcoin

1:58:17

and if you do this at scale this can

1:58:20

actually

1:58:21

uh induce inflationary pressure on the

1:58:23

fiat currency

1:58:24

undergoing the speculative attack so we

1:58:27

could even say that what

1:58:28

the sailor's recent move with the

1:58:30

convertible note play

1:58:32

is in some ways actually a speculative

1:58:33

attack on the us dollar

1:58:35

so again it just points towards this

1:58:39

how the economic principles underpinning

1:58:41

money

1:58:42

and the incentive schemes uh related to

1:58:46

both fiat currency and bitcoin sort of

1:58:48

all point towards

1:58:49

the ultimate success of bitcoin in the

1:58:52

long term

1:58:54

and then we got into the utility of

1:58:58

money

1:58:58

as another one of these these factors

1:59:01

that drive

1:59:02

bitcoin's success and the general point

1:59:04

here is pretty straightforward it's

1:59:06

bitcoin is extensible i mean its

1:59:09

protocol is adaptable you can you can

1:59:11

add other features to it you can build

1:59:12

businesses on top of it you can

1:59:14

connect apis to it there's a great

1:59:16

degree of programmatic

1:59:18

programmability um that bitcoin enables

1:59:21

is something like gold

1:59:22

simply does not right gold is just this

1:59:24

dumb rock that essentially sits in a

1:59:25

vault

1:59:27

and provides assurances of supply

1:59:28

scarcity

1:59:30

but offers none of this other feature

1:59:32

set that bitcoin enables

1:59:34

and looking at it as technology we don't

1:59:37

say that fiat currency

1:59:39

it suffers because it has these

1:59:40

technology back doors

1:59:42

in the form of issuers being able to

1:59:44

inflate the supply

1:59:45

and steal wealth from everyone else

1:59:47

whereas something like gold or bitcoin

1:59:49

does not right it has these

1:59:51

these bad doors closed and

1:59:54

this this spins up a number of

1:59:57

interesting possibilities with bitcoin

1:59:59

which sailor went into

2:00:00

a little more detail but basically

2:00:03

by interfacing

2:00:07

this base monetary protocol we call

2:00:09

bitcoin

2:00:10

with digital technology we now gain a

2:00:13

huge degree

2:00:14

of customizability and uh unique ways

2:00:18

to say channel our will or intent

2:00:22

across time and fund it in many unique

2:00:27

and you can do this you know things like

2:00:29

smart contracts even that

2:00:31

actually mitigate or minimize

2:00:33

counterparty risk whereas if

2:00:36

again you wanted to send flowers to your

2:00:38

niece on a birthday every year for 100

2:00:40

years after your death

2:00:42

do that with something like gold you'd

2:00:43

have to put all your trust in a

2:00:44

custodian

2:00:45

uh and some type of payment mechanism to

2:00:48

get to the flower delivery guy

2:00:49

and then the flower delivery business

2:00:50

itself you'd have to you know bet on one

2:00:52

that was going to stay in business

2:00:54

whereas it's something like bitcoin you

2:00:56

can actually write a lot of these things

2:00:58

increasingly write these things into the

2:01:00

code or into a smart contract

2:01:02

that could go into the marketplace and

2:01:03

search right for

2:01:05

uh say a good payment service to deliver

2:01:08

the payment a good flower delivery

2:01:09

service

2:01:10

so it gives you a much higher degree of

2:01:12

adaptivity

2:01:14

and resiliency and projecting your will

2:01:17

and intentions

2:01:18

um beyond the grave even so super

2:01:20

interesting way to look at bitcoin

2:01:23

and then he touched on another

2:01:28

aspect of bitcoin that really drives its

2:01:28

valuation

2:01:30

and he was referring to the productivity

2:01:32

of the bitcoin

2:01:33

network participants themselves so

2:01:36

when market actors with their individual

2:01:38

corporation government

2:01:40

have decided to go long bitcoin they're

2:01:42

making a similar decision what sailor

2:01:45

where they're deciding to use bitcoin as

2:01:48

a primary treasury reserve asset or

2:01:50

so differently just to hold it on their

2:01:52

balance sheet as a means of storing

2:01:53

wealth

2:01:55

and what this does is this is a

2:01:57

two-phased

2:01:59

kind of approach because the initial

2:02:00

phase just hey

2:02:02

i'm putting my treasure into bitcoin

2:02:04

right i'm selling the cash and buying

2:02:05

bitcoin

2:02:06

but the second order effect of that is

2:02:08

once you've made that decision

2:02:11

you as a productive and effective

2:02:12

entrepreneur

2:02:14

are going to continue sweeping profits

2:02:17

or excess cash flow

2:02:18

into your treasury over time so not only

2:02:21

is the the value accreted

2:02:25

to the bitcoin network it's not even

2:02:26

that initial slug of capital in the form

2:02:28

of the treasury transaction

2:02:30

but also the discounted future expected

2:02:33

cash flows

2:02:34

from future sweeps into that same

2:02:36

treasury right

2:02:38

and um and i think this is an incredibly

2:02:41

interesting way to look at it because

2:02:42

i've never seen anyone in bitcoin

2:02:45

that studies it closely that becomes

2:02:47

bullish that ever becomes

2:02:48

less bullish so it's almost like once

2:02:51

you're in

2:02:51

you're allocating capital in you're

2:02:54

studying it more closely you see all

2:02:56

these

2:02:56

things we've covered right in depth and

2:02:59

more things we will cover

2:03:00

on how significant of a monetary

2:03:03

innovation this really is

2:03:05

and it just causes you to sort of

2:03:06

escalate your allocation percentage

2:03:08

right maybe you're

2:03:09

20 of your treasury initially and

2:03:11

creeping up to 30 40 50.

2:03:13

and this is all this self-reinforcing

2:03:15

feedback loop

2:03:16

because every decision you make to

2:03:19

increase your

2:03:20

allocation of the bitcoin is putting

2:03:22

game theoretic pressure on all other

2:03:24

market participants to do the same

2:03:26

right it's a game of front running or

2:03:28

taking as much territory on the network

2:03:30

as possible

2:03:31

so this has a really interesting effect

2:03:34

of intertwining

2:03:36

the fate of bitcoiners together in a way

2:03:39

that it's like a compounding

2:03:40

incentive structure that

2:03:43

incentivizes not only to become more

2:03:45

productive right to generate even more

2:03:47

free cash flow to put into savings right

2:03:49

this into this superior savings

2:03:51

technology

2:03:52

but it also incentivizes us as holders

2:03:54

to want to educate others

2:03:56

we wanted to describe to the rest of the

2:03:59

world

2:04:00

for not only financial purposes but also

2:04:02

for moral purposes

2:04:04

of how the existing system is rigged and

2:04:06

you are being robbed and

2:04:07

this is not only pragmatically the best

2:04:10

system but also philosophically

2:04:12

the best system for savings the world's

2:04:13

ever had and

2:04:15

um even evangelize right once you're a

2:04:18

bitcoin holder

2:04:20

and you found this way of of saving your

2:04:24

own wealth your own life energy

2:04:26

in a in an uncompromisable medium across

2:04:29

time you you want the same for others

2:04:33

right the natural human proclivity

2:04:35

towards

2:04:36

helping one another

2:04:38

[Music]

2:04:39

i think sort of comes to the surface and

2:04:41

then you want to see others succeed in

2:04:42

the same way

2:04:43

because why would you want anything else

2:04:46

right other actually other people

2:04:48

succeeding

2:04:49

in true free market economic competition

2:04:51

it's a positive sum game right every

2:04:53

time someone's

2:04:54

doing something better faster cheaper

2:04:56

that solution they're providing accretes

2:04:58

to all of us

2:05:00

so bitcoin really not only does it

2:05:03

intertwine all of the fates

2:05:04

of its network of market participants

2:05:06

but it's also encouraging us to think

2:05:09

differently and and communicate

2:05:10

differently um

2:05:12

versus a fiat currency paradigm which is

2:05:15

much more

2:05:15

zero sum right much more rent seeking

2:05:17

focus so

2:05:19

that was really interesting too so on

2:05:21

this topic of bitcoin

2:05:23

as an american in the idea sense

2:05:26

technology

2:05:27

see i had this great quote that a

2:05:29

crucible

2:05:30

of virtuous innovation requires a vacuum

2:05:34

insulation

2:05:35

layer right again to preserve

2:05:40

the wealth whether that's the

2:05:42

productivity the energy generated the

2:05:44

profits the cash flows

2:05:46

of any entity requires

2:05:49

um an insulating layer of some kind

2:05:52

otherwise

2:05:53

the entropy of nature right whether it's

2:05:55

the greed of man or the uncertainty of

2:05:57

nature

2:05:58

um or the the transaction uh or

2:06:02

let's say the taxes right of moving

2:06:04

capital from one jurisdiction to another

2:06:06

they just eat up

2:06:07

that wealth itself so again we're back

2:06:11

to that

2:06:13

bitcoin being the ultimate vacuum

2:06:15

sealing

2:06:16

of capital we've ever had which i

2:06:18

thought was just a great analogy

2:06:20

we got into inflation a bit and

2:06:23

the one thing i just really wanted to

2:06:24

point out here is that

2:06:27

contrary to what bitcoin is right this

2:06:28

this virtuous

2:06:31

feedback loop of of incentives and game

2:06:34

theory

2:06:34

fiat currency is actually the reverse so

2:06:38

not only is it inflation theft right

2:06:40

it's eroding

2:06:42

real wealth through uh fiat currency

2:06:44

supply inflation

2:06:46

but it's also there's a psychological

2:06:48

element to it as well

2:06:49

so if inflation is growing market actors

2:06:52

are smart

2:06:53

they start to attempt to front run

2:06:56

future inflation so actually

2:06:58

inflation expectations tend to outpace

2:07:03

actual inflation in a non-linear fashion

2:07:07

inflation is coming in at two three four

2:07:09

five percent if it's growing people

2:07:10

expect it to continue

2:07:12

growing they'll actually start selling

2:07:13

their fiat today

2:07:16

in anticipation of further fiat currency

2:07:18

inflation in the future

2:07:20

and when you sell fiat currency you're

2:07:22

inducing

2:07:23

uh further inflationary pressure on it

2:07:26

right you're actually

2:07:27

increasing the velocity of money itself

2:07:29

so it becomes this game of like

2:07:31

hot potatoes so you don't want to hold

2:07:33

the dollars and this can add

2:07:36

fuel to that vicious cycle that

2:07:38

ultimately culminates

2:07:40

in hyperinflation and again that's just

2:07:42

the precise

2:07:43

opposite of bitcoin's quantitative

2:07:46

hardening

2:07:46

technology right it's disinflating over

2:07:49

time causing it to appreciate

2:07:51

and then finally we got into you know

2:07:53

one of the topics i like to talk about a

2:07:56

which i think is eternally mystifying is

2:07:58

this concept of truth

2:08:00

um and sailor presented it in a way i'd

2:08:03

never heard before

2:08:04

and that he said quote conservative

2:08:06

conservative energy

2:08:08

is truth meaning that what

2:08:12

whatever strategy or organism or

2:08:14

organization

2:08:15

best adheres to the first law of

2:08:17

thermodynamics

2:08:19

right and optimizing its its inflows and

2:08:21

outflows

2:08:22

let's say of energy or money or anything

2:08:24

else uh

2:08:26

that's how you succeed right you want to

2:08:28

maximize your cash inflows minimize your

2:08:30

cash outflows for instance to be a

2:08:31

successful

2:08:32

organization and in that context bitcoin

2:08:35

is the first

2:08:37

conservative monetary network in history

2:08:39

we could say gold was one

2:08:41

it was the most conservative monetary

2:08:42

network in history but bitcoin is the

2:08:44

first one that maps perfectly on to

2:08:47

thermodynamics i thought that was super

2:08:49

interesting

2:08:50

and um you know as as sailors

2:08:53

said sort of uh sort of jokingly how

2:08:57

they talked about thermodynamics at mit

2:08:59

and that you can't win you can't break

2:09:01

even and you can't escape the game

2:09:03

bitcoin maps onto that really well

2:09:05

it's like you can't manipulate 21

2:09:07

million you must incur

2:09:09

transaction fees right so you can't

2:09:10

really break even

2:09:12

um and you can't ignore the game right

2:09:15

you can't escape the game of bitcoin it

2:09:17

just opposes its rules

2:09:18

on everything so

2:09:21

that was it i think it was a great

2:09:23

episode you know

2:09:24

he concluded with saying that perhaps

2:09:27

bitcoin

2:09:27

is actually the first instance of

2:09:29

technology crashing into economics

2:09:31

so possibly it'll cause a rewriting of

2:09:34

the history books which

2:09:35

i've i've intuited it would

2:09:38

more so in the sphere of say capitalism

2:09:40

versus socialism

2:09:42

but we may actually see

2:09:44

[Music]

2:09:45

economics become more focused on these

2:09:49

physical principles of say energy um and

2:09:52

and um everything we've discussed today

2:09:55

thermal dynamic principles and things

2:09:56

like that

2:09:57

and actually uh the new book by safety

2:09:59

you know he's

2:10:00

he's writing a book called principles of

2:10:01

economics and it goes into energy which

2:10:04

is not something you typically see in

2:10:05

economic textbooks so he might be at

2:10:06

right at the cutting edge of something

2:10:07

really important

2:10:09

so anyways that was episode five uh i

2:10:12

hope you can tell things are heating up

2:10:14

at this point you know we spent a lot of

2:10:16

time building this foundation and now i

2:10:17

think you're starting to see the fruits

2:10:18

of that

2:10:19

and uh things are only going to get more

2:10:21

interesting going into future episodes

2:10:23

thanks again and we'll see you soon

2:10:29

[Music]

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