SaylorCorpus

Economics, Inflation, Interest Rates, & Natural Competition | The Saylor Series | Episode 9 (WiM009)

WiM Media · 2021-01-16 · 1h 42m · View on YouTube →

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they're dominating because they're able

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deliver force faster

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harder stronger smarter

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so if we ask the question what is money

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money is the highest form of energy that

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human beings can channel

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bitcoin is channeling human

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ingenuity into making it

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better and and every commodity

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is channeling human energy into making

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worse the lowbrow or the the

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the historic colloquial term is total

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right hold on for dear life or just

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total or save whatever

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and the highbrow term would be adopt as

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a treasury reserve essay

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[Music]

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hey guys so as you learned uh by

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watching the what is money show

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bitcoin is the single most important

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asset you can own in the world today

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and so this begs the question which i'm

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often asked how does one build

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their bitcoin position and the strategy

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really is simple

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i suggest first you decide on an initial

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portfolio percentage allocation

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and target portfolio percentage

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allocation go ahead and establish the

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initial position with a one-time buy

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and then start dollar cost averaging

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towards your target portfolio

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percentage and you can also complement

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this by buying bitcoin price dips to

0:01:43

further increase that position and

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reduce your cost basis

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and finally i suggest to everyone to

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custody of their bitcoin to move all

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their bitcoin into self-sovereign

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custody because again bitcoin left on

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exchange is not bitcoin it's a bitcoin

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and for those of you living in the us

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there's no better choice than swan

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bitcoin to do all of the above

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so swan lets you set up automatic

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recurring buys for bitcoin

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also lets you facilitate one-time buys

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for buying price dips

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and finally they let you do some

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automatic

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recurring withdrawals into cold storage

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which is a really big deal

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and all of this they provide at the

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lowest fees in the business

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uh approximately 0.99 per year

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for weekly buys of 50 or more which is

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about

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60 i'm sorry 70 to 80 less than coinbase

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by comparison

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their newsletter

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and website and their their team is just

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the absolute

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dream team of bitcoin i would say check

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um and it lets you stack sats with

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myself

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and the rest of uh the swan team as we

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continue the fight to restore

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freedom truth and virtue in the world

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through bitcoin

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all right thanks

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all right guys welcome back to episode

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of the sailor series uh today

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is another deep episode we're actually

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getting towards the end of the line here

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and uh covering some of the last bit of

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ground in the macroeconomic domain

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and tying it back into actually some

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philosophy towards the end which i

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thought was really interesting

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so today we're going to talk a bit about

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how bitcoin

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is an elemental innovation uh time is

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back to episode one

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actually uh where we just discuss stone

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age technologies

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including fire water and missiles so

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um we're actually making the case that

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bitcoin is an elemental invention akin

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to one of these stone age technologies

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which as a reminder if you haven't seen

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the prior episodes

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highly recommend you go and check those

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out as they build a long

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and strong intellectual edifice to get

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us to this point

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uh secondly we're going to talk about

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fiat currency how it's a contaminated

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form of money uh that actually leads to

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socio-economic decay

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and we're going to go into interest

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rates uh an area that's commonly

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misunderstood by even people uh

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typically considered financially

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sophisticated

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then we're going to talk a bit about

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central bank price manipulation how that

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influences markets

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we're also going to look at market

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competition and

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the law of decimation how that plays out

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in nature

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and throughout history then we're going

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to get into the philosophical domain

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uh we're going to touch on a bit of

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stoicism

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and how sailor has used this in his own

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and how he sees its importance in

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markets in general

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and then finally uh we'll leave off

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with a bit of discussion on

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anti-fragility and

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the vitality of life so excited for this

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uh another crazy episode with the the

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incredibly brilliant

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michael saylor so with that let's dive

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in sort of the purpose of humanity has

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been to

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channel energy through our intellect

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right that's how we've

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developed everything essentially

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and i'm reminded of a quote by alfred

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north whitehead

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that i'll paraphrase it he said that

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it's common

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wisdom for people to say you should

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think before you act

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but that in fact civilization advances

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by us being able to execute more

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important operations

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without having to think about them all

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right so we're actually

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when we can embed these things uh these

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certain important actions in a protocol

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that we don't need to think about it as

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much it frees us up to do other things

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right that's kind of the layers

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upon which we build civilization and

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it just seems like this digital age

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we're going into

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is something radically new it seems to

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as profound as the renaissance or as

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profound as the enlightenment do you see

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it that way are we

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are we co-evolving with the tools that

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we're creating

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in like the next 500 years are gonna be

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something so fundamentally different

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than what history has been that it'll be

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hard to recognize it in a few hundred

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years

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i i do think that um

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the creation of bitcoin and the creation

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of the

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of the first effective crypto network

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isn't is an elemental force

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a is a true invention akin to the

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discovery of fire

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or the discovery of atomic energy or the

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discovery of

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of we can make a list of a lot of

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uh fundamental things maybe one

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interesting thing is just

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the science of uh or the science of

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sterilization

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right germs medicine modern medicine and

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the awareness of the importance of uh

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sterilizing instruments and and

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the way that disease spreads right

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immunology

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once we figured that out we were able to

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go from living 50 years of living 70

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years because

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we realized that we were just

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every time we entered into a

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medical procedure including the birth of

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a child

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we were moving into an unsterile

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environment that was

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life threatening in fact life uh

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soul soul sucking right like uh

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life stealing right the death rate um

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the death rate uh from childbirth was

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huge right

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the average life expectancy was short

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and we needed that breakthrough to

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realize that we were swimming in germs

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and the very simple solution

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is wash your hands sterilize or

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instruments

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and you put that together with

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antibiotics and the human life expects

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to jump by 50

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so what if we're actually doing

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economics with dirty money

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and so we've been dealing we've been

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using

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monetary energy which is bleeding

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right it's it's the same way as

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operating with

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with uh non-sterile instruments

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and the patient keeps dying and we don't

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know why

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and um the significance of bitcoin

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is we're going from from defective money

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which is somewhere between toxic it may

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just be

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uh bleeding like ineffective bleeding

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two three four percent a year

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or it's toxic when it gets to minus 10

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or minus 15

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real yield so using toxic money

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how is that different than using toxic

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instruments

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when i commit surgery on you like

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how is it different than feeding you

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toxic food

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i think i think we're breaking through

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this new world we sterilize our

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instruments we encrypt our money

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we're moving uh we're moving toward a

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science of non-toxic

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economic energy madam curie

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died of radiation poisoning and she died

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of cancer from the radiation

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they didn't realize that radiation

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killed you that it

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caused cancer there's a lot of basics

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in and life that we don't understand a

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bit a big breakthrough in

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and uh health is when we realized that

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sugar was toxic

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my mother didn't know sugar was toxic

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right i mean uh

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conventional wisdom and governmental

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advice would you need your four favorite

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food groups and pursue a low-fat diet

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but starch and sugar was fine

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and of course now we know that too much

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starch and too much sugar

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makes you insulin resistant makes your

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type 2 diabetic gives you cancer

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my mother became diabetic became

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overweight got cancer

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we thought it was just unfortunate

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doctor said we don't know why these

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things happen

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it's just unfortunate you know if i

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could go back in time

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i'd be like i know exactly why it

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happens i know exactly how to solve it

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right don't eat sugar don't eat starch

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stop eating fast sometimes you know i

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never

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i never eat before like one two one in

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the afternoon i only eat an eight hour

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window

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and i'll go two or three days and i

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won't eat i mean i adopt fasting

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and i won't drink anything with sugar in

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right you want to live a long time don't

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dose yourself with sugar it's toxic

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the instruments are toxic the germs are

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toxic we killed george washington

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because we bled him to death

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toxic the money's toxic that's

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fundamentally the issue

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the money is toxic that i mean

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that's the fundamental issue with with

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inflation and we

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if we segue into the discussion of

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inflation

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it's everybody keeps thinking there is

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no inflation because everybody focuses

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upon a market basket consumer goods

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and if you look in the u.s and you look

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in europe they leave food

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and energy out of the basket of consumer

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goods and they say

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we left out the highly volatile food and

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energy from the index

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well highly volatile means it went up

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and the number would change

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right quality is another word for signal

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we left out everything that actually

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changes

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in price from our price index

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right okay people it literally is like a

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jedi mind trick

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and it's like a triple mind trick it's

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we have a consumer price index and we've

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left the prices that vary out of the

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index oh check

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we have a consumer price index well

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first of all

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it's not a scalar it's a vector it's an

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n-dimensional vector dynamically

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changing in time you've just created a

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skill

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we've created a market basket of things

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that we think you want

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yes your basket is what i want

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the market basket of things that you

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want does not include assets

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no i would never want to buy an asset

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only rich people buy assets

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poor people do not buy assets how do

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poor people get rich

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you have to buy assets to go from being

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poor to being rich i didn't

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i didn't go from being poor to being

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wealthy

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by not buying assets or not trading

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assets you create them or you buy them

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so the entire field of inflation

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is defective and the irony is that 99

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of the economists that talk about it

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they they already have accepted the

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notion that a market basket of consumer

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products and services is acceptable and

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it's acceptable to throw out

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energy and food and i never seen an

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economist

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say why don't we actually define the

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things

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that are working a 22 year old is going

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to want to buy by the time they're 32

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and here's one thing early retirement

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right i want to retire i want to buy

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early retirement by the time i'm 32. how

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do i do that

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i need to buy a bond that pays me 75 000

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a year and interest risk free

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and i need for the 75 000 a year

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to pay my living expenses

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and if the interest rate was seven

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percent then i need a million dollars

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for that

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but the interest rate goes to point

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seven percent i need ten million dollars

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so from 2010 to 2020

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the interest rate went down to 60 basis

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points on a 10-year

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government bond which meant that the

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bond went from a million dollars

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to 10 million dollars which meant that

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the 22 year old

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suffering from 22 inflation on early

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retirement

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but because that's not in a basket

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because that's not something that you

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would ever want to give them

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there's no inflation

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you can actually track it and you can

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see that the inflation rate changes

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across a thousand different

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if you just started with a simple

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principle inflation is a basket of

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products services or assets

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if you just did that that's kind of the

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equivalent of saying oh it's possible

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the sun

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revolves around the earth but it's

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possible the earth revolves around the

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sun let's find out which

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has anybody ever asked the question

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whether or not the basket should include

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assets or

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products or services right no one's even

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questioning the most basic premise and

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it goes it goes to this

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the the most you know it's pernicious

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rule of propaganda and it's attributed

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to joseph goebbels and the nazi regime

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he said

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and it's also attributed to old movie so

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maybe it's apocryphal

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but he said all of our focus groups

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show us and tell us we can't tell people

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what to think

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but we can tell them what to think about

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i cannot change your mind once you've

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made it up and if you have an opinion

0:15:48

but i can get you to focus upon

0:15:50

something so if i just keep saying

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inflation cpi and it didn't go

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up and this is what it is when's the

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last time 100 million people said what

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we really wanted to buy

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was early retirement

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well i didn't even know that was a

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product i could buy

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because i couldn't conceive of it well

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it is a product you can buy

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it's a government 30-year bond that

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yields six percent

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interest in a non-inflationary

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environment that's a risk-free

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retirement you can buy that

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right now the problem is at 140 basis

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points

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that would cost you you know 30 million

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dollars

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for 60 grand a year

0:16:36

how do i make that at 75 grand a year

0:16:39

salary

0:16:40

saving 15 grand if i'm making 500

0:16:43

000 a year and i save a hundred thousand

0:16:47

you know i pay 200 000 in tax i make

0:16:49

three hundred grand i save a hundred

0:16:50

thousand

0:16:51

if i save a hundred thousand for twenty

0:16:53

years i've got two million dollars

0:16:56

and investing that in the government

0:16:59

at sixty basis points or a hundred basis

0:17:02

points

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i've got nothing wow

0:17:07

so so the problem starts with

0:17:11

the fact that inflation is misdefined

0:17:13

the right way to think about it

0:17:16

is every single product service or asset

0:17:20

has an inflation coefficient and the

0:17:22

inflationary coefficient

0:17:24

right is that's the rate at which the

0:17:26

price will change as i

0:17:28

pump my money into the money system

0:17:32

and so the coefficients vary and they're

0:17:34

a function

0:17:35

of the scarcity of the asset

0:17:39

and the demand for the asset the

0:17:41

information

0:17:42

content of the asset uh

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the material cost or the variable cost

0:17:49

of the asset and then the modularity

0:17:52

of the asset if i can stamp out the

0:17:55

asset a million times out of a factory

0:17:57

it's going to be less inflationary

0:17:59

because

0:18:00

because the fixed cost is higher and the

0:18:02

variable cost is lower

0:18:04

cell phones mobile phones will not be

0:18:05

inflationary because everything's in the

0:18:08

software will not be inflationary

0:18:10

because there's no variable cause

0:18:12

things you know streaming music on

0:18:16

amazon music or apple music will not be

0:18:18

inflationary

0:18:20

because i can stream it a billion times

0:18:23

a picasso will be inflationary because

0:18:26

there's only

0:18:27

you know 20 50 100. right

0:18:30

that's you know five acres of beachfront

0:18:33

property

0:18:33

in the middle of miami beach will be

0:18:35

inflationary to the extent

0:18:37

people want miami beach five acres in

0:18:40

ohio will not be inflationary because

0:18:41

there's a lot of land in the world the

0:18:43

only land people want

0:18:44

is in the middle of new york the middle

0:18:46

of london the hamptons

0:18:48

miami beach the middle of la the middle

0:18:50

of san francisco the middle of tokyo

0:18:52

you fly across this country and look

0:18:54

down there's enough land

0:18:56

to park 10 billion people on five acres

0:18:59

each right now it's just got to be

0:19:03

in demand and scarce may i ask you a

0:19:05

question about this

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so the coefficient itself

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in my mind would be a product of the

0:19:13

scarcity of the good or service relative

0:19:16

to the scarcity of

0:19:18

the money it's denominated in right such

0:19:21

if the money supply is outpacing the

0:19:23

production of the good or service

0:19:25

that good or service will inflate in

0:19:27

price right

0:19:28

and then so my so to your point it's not

0:19:31

a single variable it's not cpi as

0:19:33

inflation

0:19:34

everything has its own inflation rate

0:19:36

and then my second

0:19:38

so our second part of that question

0:19:39

would be why

0:19:41

is the narrative surrounding inflation

0:19:43

so distorted do you think it's

0:19:45

intentional

0:19:45

by governments that are clearly heavily

0:19:47

indebted

0:19:49

um because i i don't see any equitable

0:19:52

benefit to inflation whatsoever it's

0:19:54

purely a mechanism

0:19:55

for reallocating wealth and i don't

0:19:58

understand why the narrative's so

0:19:59

distorted

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200 years ago people thought they had to

0:20:02

bleed george washington's death to save

0:20:04

his life

0:20:06

and everybody agreed on it

0:20:09

people you know people the whole point

0:20:11

of paradigm shifts right

0:20:13

everybody agreed that the sun revolved

0:20:14

around the earth everybody agreed the

0:20:17

world was flat

0:20:18

everybody agreed that humans would never

0:20:22

i mean everybody agrees on stuff until

0:20:24

they realize that they're just utterly

0:20:26

and totally and horrifically wrong

0:20:30

so in this particular case

0:20:35

i blow a bunch of of liquidity into the

0:20:38

system

0:20:39

there's let's say there's a there's 50

0:20:42

trillion dollars worth of

0:20:44

energy like pick a number any number and

0:20:47

i blow

0:20:48

10 trillion dollars worth of money in

0:20:50

the system and so

0:20:52

there's still 50 trillion worth of

0:20:53

energy but now the money is

0:20:55

diluted by 20 right so

0:20:58

if i have a product and i can measure

0:21:00

the pure energy

0:21:02

content of the product

0:21:09

then the then if it's 100 pure energy

0:21:09

the price has got to go up by 20 if i

0:21:11

expand the money

0:21:12

supply by 20 assuming it's completely

0:21:14

liquid and in demand

0:21:16

what's an example of that like maybe um

0:21:18

a bond

0:21:19

like a pure financial instrument

0:21:27

something that is a rib eye

0:21:27

something that is tangible and you

0:21:29

cannot produce it with any less energy

0:21:33

right this is you know this is why proof

0:21:35

of work is bitcoin is torture

0:21:37

if it takes me a tangible amount of

0:21:39

energy to produce that thing

0:21:41

then its inflation coefficient is going

0:21:43

to be

0:21:44

like a hundred percent and on the other

0:21:48

the cost to produce a streaming youtube

0:21:50

video

0:21:52

you know is going to be the the energy

0:21:54

content is one percent of the value

0:21:56

added or the value in use

0:21:58

and 99 of the value in use is um

0:22:02

is information but not and and

0:22:05

non-scarce information so it's got a

0:22:08

variable cost of

0:22:09

one percent an iphone's got a variable

0:22:12

cost of 30

0:22:13

35 40 right everything's got a different

0:22:17

a different variable cost gold's got a

0:22:19

much higher variable cost right

0:22:22

right because because it's it's holding

0:22:24

its energy

0:22:26

so if when you look at all these things

0:22:31

you'll be able to calculate different

0:22:32

inflation coefficients

0:22:34

and therefore different inflation rates

0:22:36

across an array of

0:22:38

thousands of things it'll be different

0:22:41

inflation rates in new york city

0:22:42

manhattan

0:22:43

versus you know farmland in kansas

0:22:46

it'll be different right so you can't

0:22:48

really you can't say oh this asset class

0:22:52

there'll be different inflation rates on

0:22:54

different stocks

0:22:55

right because it'll be a function of the

0:22:57

you know you notice um

0:23:01

if the cash flows are likely to continue

0:23:03

from the stock

0:23:05

right subject to or less affected by

0:23:07

inflation then it's

0:23:08

it's uh it's going to go up so

0:23:12

i i think that the pernicious mistake

0:23:14

everybody makes

0:23:16

is they um

0:23:19

they don't really think about in energy

0:23:22

density and information density

0:23:24

of their products services and assets

0:23:27

they're not applying conservation of

0:23:29

energy

0:23:31

if the law of conservation of energy

0:23:33

applies that when i increase the money

0:23:35

supply

0:23:36

by 20 and if the energy is constant

0:23:39

right then all of them all the numbers

0:23:42

have to change and if they didn't change

0:23:46

on um on the deflationary products they

0:23:49

must have changed more

0:23:52

on something else so you can't very well

0:23:56

be printing 10

0:23:57

more money and not have the inflation

0:23:59

it's just we're choosing

0:24:01

to pick just one percent of

0:24:04

the things that are inflated the

0:24:06

deflationary assets we put them in a

0:24:08

bucket

0:24:09

and it's almost too easy if i get to

0:24:11

throw out all

0:24:12

assets all real estate all stocks

0:24:16

all bonds and then i get to throw out

0:24:18

energy and then i get to throw away

0:24:20

food right well what is how could you

0:24:23

possibly generate inflation

0:24:25

right because you could print 100

0:24:29

gazillion trillion billion dollars and

0:24:32

the cost of free streaming

0:24:33

twitter and youtube is not going up

0:24:36

right

0:24:38

yeah you're throwing out everything that

0:24:39

changes so it's self-defeating

0:24:42

so so bottom line is inflation is um

0:24:46

there's no such thing as a free lunch

0:24:48

but in fl the inflation that's being

0:24:50

reported

0:24:51

is an irrelevant metric i call it it's a

0:24:53

metaphysical metric

0:24:56

that's that's been uh artificially

0:24:58

defined

0:24:59

in order to provide some comfort and

0:25:02

it's working

0:25:03

the great majority of people not only do

0:25:06

they not think there's not

0:25:07

they don't think there's inflation you

0:25:09

literally have

0:25:11

politicians lamenting that they can't

0:25:13

create inflation

0:25:15

and how important it is to create

0:25:16

inflation even as

0:25:19

they're inflating every scarce asset

0:25:22

on earth to the point where no one can

0:25:24

afford

0:25:25

look robert like i'm a rich man like i'm

0:25:29

i'm a very wealthy man i can't afford to

0:25:31

buy a house in the hamptons

0:25:33

like like i'll go you know like i'll go

0:25:35

look at these things and i'm like

0:25:37

who's paying 47 million dollars or like

0:25:41

like they're selling houses for 25

0:25:43

million dollars on two acres i'm like

0:25:45

are you guys out of your minds like

0:25:49

like how you know or like you go to new

0:25:51

york city and someone's paying

0:25:53

25 million dollars for a 5 000 square

0:25:56

apartment wow and you know

0:26:00

25 000 a square foot

0:26:03

i mean at the end of the day it's

0:26:05

obscene

0:26:07

and what you what you can see is

0:26:11

we're running 10 to 20 percent inflation

0:26:13

for the past

0:26:14

decade we're just running it

0:26:17

on all of the scarce luxury

0:26:20

assets that have high information that

0:26:24

have high energy value

0:26:26

that i mean what's the definition of

0:26:28

scarce right maybe the definition of

0:26:30

scarce is it has high energy energy

0:26:32

value because

0:26:33

if i could stamp out a billion trillion

0:26:35

of them for the same unit of energy

0:26:38

i must be diluting the energy down right

0:26:41

distinct things that are hard to produce

0:26:43

right so gold and bitcoin they're all

0:26:45

inflating and i would say that it's

0:26:48

it is a lie right i don't i'm not sure

0:26:51

necessarily about

0:26:52

the intentionality you could argue about

0:26:53

that but it's definitely a lie

0:26:55

this is that cpi is inflation and it

0:26:58

seems like it's being used to cover up

0:27:00

this widespread system of theft that is

0:27:04

monetary inflation i'm not even sure

0:27:07

they realize

0:27:09

that it is theft or that they're doing

0:27:11

it i i'm half convinced that 80

0:27:14

of the people in government don't even

0:27:16

realize

0:27:17

that the inflation metric is a wrong

0:27:21

metric

0:27:22

and irrelevant i

0:27:25

it's like i'm burning myself to death

0:27:29

and i'm calculating the temperature on

0:27:31

the counter six feet away

0:27:40

and i guess it's like they're just not

0:27:40

feeling the pain

0:27:42

and that you know and and because of

0:27:44

that it takes us to the issue of

0:27:46

interest right

0:27:47

and if you think inflation is not coming

0:27:50

so you keep printing money

0:27:51

and you keep driving the interest rate

0:27:53

down the problem we have

0:27:55

is really just a warren currency a war

0:27:58

on time

0:28:00

we re rendered the money toxic if you

0:28:03

hold the money

0:28:04

once you understand that the the real

0:28:06

inflation rate is 10 to 15

0:28:09

because that's how assets are clocking

0:28:11

then you realize that any currency

0:28:13

you're holding is is uh draining energy

0:28:17

from your life at ten percent a year

0:28:19

it's almost like i put in a battery that

0:28:21

drains two percent a month or

0:28:23

one percent a month i i can't store

0:28:26

energy you know you know uh

0:28:29

another metaphor for what happens in the

0:28:31

human body when you can't store energy

0:28:34

like robert if i took you and i dropped

0:28:38

in the middle of the arctic circle and

0:28:41

it was 20 below

0:28:43

your body would start losing energy at a

0:28:45

rapid rate

0:28:47

you'd freeze to death it's literally

0:28:50

like i come into your office and i crank

0:28:52

the temperature down

0:28:53

20 degrees and i'm freezing

0:28:56

to death because i'm pulling the energy

0:28:59

off your skin

0:29:02

and so what do you do insulate

0:29:05

cover up right how to

0:29:08

but what if you can't if you're a

0:29:11

wealthy person you put on a fur coat

0:29:13

right or maybe you're smart enough to

0:29:17

realize

0:29:19

like what do wealthy people do you drop

0:29:21

them in the arctic and they get on their

0:29:23

jet and they fly to the caribbean

0:29:24

where it's warm right because they can't

0:29:27

and what do you do if you're poor

0:29:29

i dropped in the arctic or or even worse

0:29:32

right i go to your hometown and i just

0:29:33

turn the temperature down to 20

0:29:35

below and you can't leave

0:29:38

but but you know it's like i slowly

0:29:40

freeze you to death

0:29:41

i don't do it fast it's like you don't

0:29:44

even realize it's happening

0:29:47

if it happened at a gradual enough rate

0:29:49

it's like i know i'm working hard i'm

0:29:51

just not getting ahead

0:29:53

i'm working i'm not getting ahead

0:29:55

because every time i put money in the

0:29:57

right the cost the price of everything

0:29:59

keeps going up

0:30:00

the price of a house in miami beach it

0:30:02

was a million dollars on the street

0:30:04

where i live and then it's 2 million and

0:30:05

that's 3 million there's 4 million then

0:30:07

it's five million it's eight million

0:30:08

that's 10 million

0:30:09

i'm not talking about every decade i'm

0:30:10

talking about every year i'm talking

0:30:12

about

0:30:13

2000 to 2010

0:30:16

you know during that administration we

0:30:19

were printing money so

0:30:20

fast that we had this housing bloom and

0:30:23

everybody that owned houses

0:30:24

were happy they're refinancing their

0:30:26

houses but you're looking you're like

0:30:28

how is it possible people

0:30:29

bought this house in 1998 for a million

0:30:32

dollars and i'm being asked to pay 10

0:30:33

million

0:30:34

for the same house

0:30:40

it's like if you happen to be working

0:30:40

for cash

0:30:41

that's what pop would say you can't work

0:30:44

if you're working for cash and paying

0:30:45

taxes and then you're putting

0:30:47

cash in the bank then you're suffering

0:30:51

from inflation and shadow tax

0:30:55

like your life energy is being robbed

0:30:58

from you and so that takes us to this

0:31:02

this issue of real yield right um

0:31:06

if the actual nominal yield is one and a

0:31:08

half percent on a 30-year t-bill

0:31:10

or zero percent on short-term money and

0:31:13

if the

0:31:13

asset inflation rate blended across all

0:31:16

stock

0:31:17

all liquid assets stocks and bonds and

0:31:20

the like

0:31:22

it's probably 15 right now

0:31:26

maybe 12 13 14 15 but let's just say

0:31:29

it's only 10

0:31:30

just to be nice well then you're looking

0:31:34

a real yield of minus 10 you've never

0:31:37

seen that number printed

0:31:38

in any kind of public media no i mean no

0:31:41

one would dare

0:31:42

say we have a negative real yield of 10

0:31:44

percent it would create a panic

0:31:47

but if you if you did think negative

0:31:49

real yield of 10

0:31:51

what happens in action cycle through and

0:31:53

you say well if my cash flows of the

0:31:55

stock aren't going up by more than 10

0:31:57

percent that's deluded

0:31:59

the only equity you can you can buy

0:32:02

where you're going to make out on

0:32:03

is where the company is able to grow its

0:32:05

cash flows

0:32:06

more than 10 a year right and then

0:32:09

you've got to buy it in a decent price

0:32:11

so if your cash flows are growing 20 or

0:32:14

30 a year maybe it's a good deal that's

0:32:15

why people like

0:32:16

you know tech like facebook or google

0:32:19

because they did

0:32:20

on amazon they did for a while i don't

0:32:22

know if they will going forward

0:32:24

it's a lot harder to over the next 36

0:32:26

months it seems much less likely that

0:32:28

you'll see

0:32:28

20 cash flow growth will you see 10

0:32:32

i don't what percentage of the s p 500

0:32:35

will grow cash flows more than 10

0:32:38

this year any

0:32:45

5 10 like probably not more than 10

0:32:45

right right we could figure it out but

0:32:50

if you're not doing that then you're

0:32:51

dilutive of course that means any any

0:32:54

fixed bonds that aren't generating 10

0:32:56

they're they're long-term dilutive yeah

0:33:00

so where does that leave bitcoin right

0:33:03

well bitcoin's got a positive real yield

0:33:05

because

0:33:06

you don't you're not getting hit with

0:33:07

that 10 percent

0:33:10

currency yeah debasement

0:33:15

and so let me ask you so this

0:33:18

just to jump back a little bit to

0:33:20

bitcoin as a unit of account

0:33:23

or a financial frame of reference yeah

0:33:26

do you suggest here that it is actually

0:33:29

useful

0:33:30

to look and i guess you could do this

0:33:32

with bitcoin or gold but to look at

0:33:33

these historic

0:33:34

price charts denominated in bitcoin or

0:33:38

to strip out a lot of this central bank

0:33:40

induced market manipulation

0:33:42

via inflation i think that that'll be a

0:33:45

lot more useful in the next 10 years

0:33:47

with bitcoin the first 10 years of

0:33:49

bitcoin was it was so

0:33:51

developmental going from zero you have

0:33:53

this asymptotic

0:33:54

zero number and so if i think that

0:33:57

if you look over the next 10 years i

0:33:59

think that'll that'll become a

0:34:01

valuable thing people have done it in

0:34:03

gold and i think that's probably

0:34:05

uh it's a more stable

0:34:08

application because gold was a bit more

0:34:10

stable through this time period

0:34:12

but again it's manipulated to a certain

0:34:14

extent and it's like got its own problem

0:34:16

so we talked this would help

0:34:17

this would help eliminate some confusion

0:34:19

i think for people that

0:34:20

think the s p is just going up forever

0:34:23

if you actually denominate it in gold

0:34:25

the chart doesn't look that great right

0:34:27

it had a boom in 2001 but it's not been

0:34:29

good ever since

0:34:31

if you if you simply divide it by the

0:34:34

monetary supply

0:34:35

like if the monetary support going up by

0:34:38

seven percent and the s p is going up by

0:34:40

eight percent

0:34:42

then the overall market's flat and that

0:34:45

makes sense because

0:34:48

why do people think that uh

0:34:51

stocks should always go up eight percent

0:34:55

i i'm in business robert

0:34:58

it's it's hideously competitive

0:35:02

like the do you think that we don't have

0:35:05

a competitive market for everything in

0:35:07

this country

0:35:08

it's obscenely competitive

0:35:11

and so what you've got you look at the

0:35:13

nasdaq is you have like five companies

0:35:16

apple amazon facebook google

0:35:24

right microsoft

0:35:24

right those five and aren't they

0:35:27

responsible for like 80 percent

0:35:29

of the gain everybody else is competing

0:35:33

and it's competitive market and what

0:35:35

does that mean it means it's hard

0:35:37

to grow 20 a year because whenever you

0:35:40

do anything someone else is copying you

0:35:43

and they're pushing on you so unless you

0:35:45

get a dominant digital network with a

0:35:47

near monopoly

0:35:49

with these massive exploding economies

0:35:52

of scale on a zero variable cost low

0:35:55

variable cost

0:35:56

it's it's very very difficult to perform

0:35:58

and most of the s p

0:36:00

isn't right to the extent that the s p

0:36:03

isn't apple amazon facebook google

0:36:05

microsoft

0:36:07

they're just a bunch of companies

0:36:08

competing with each other so you would

0:36:10

think that they would grow

0:36:11

at the uh at the productivity growth

0:36:14

rate of the overall economy

0:36:16

but of course which what two percent

0:36:18

three percent why shouldn't they

0:36:20

if you had hard money and by the way

0:36:23

coming back to that theory of uh

0:36:25

bitcoin network value bitcoin network

0:36:27

value goes through the roof

0:36:29

skyrockets in the early days when

0:36:30

there's massive adoption and massive

0:36:32

technology

0:36:33

explosion but in the in the later stages

0:36:36

of the s

0:36:37

curve when it's fully diffused and when

0:36:39

it's mature

0:36:40

it just grows with the gdp it grows with

0:36:44

those with productivity of the people in

0:36:46

the network

0:36:47

if they grow two percent a year it grows

0:36:49

two percent a year

0:36:50

so any mature equity market you would

0:36:53

expect

0:36:55

equity indexes equity prices to grow

0:36:57

with the gdp if they're growing faster

0:36:59

it's the monetary expansion right expand

0:37:02

the monetary supply seven percent

0:37:04

expand the gdp one percent s p should go

0:37:07

eight percent it's going to be

0:37:09

disproportionate

0:37:11

the big tech the leading edge innovative

0:37:14

is going to be going double triple

0:37:16

quadruple that

0:37:18

and then the trailing edge laggards are

0:37:21

going to be

0:37:22

tanking and then everyone that's working

0:37:25

their asses off as hard as they can is

0:37:28

going to be barely

0:37:29

keeping up right because you have to do

0:37:33

a hundred thousand things right

0:37:34

just to stay in business in a real

0:37:37

darwinian and capitalist economy

0:37:40

it's like being flat means defeating

0:37:43

99 of the rest of the market being flat

0:37:48

to be up you have to you know amazon's

0:37:51

up because they beat

0:37:52

15 000 companies you know

0:37:55

the next two are just slightly okay

0:37:58

and there's some that are flat and

0:37:59

everybody else gets destroyed because of

0:38:02

the natural effect there this reminds me

0:38:04

of the the red queen

0:38:05

from i think alice in wonderland or said

0:38:08

in my kingdom

0:38:09

everyone has to run as fast as they can

0:38:11

just to stand still

0:38:12

right

0:38:13

[Music]

0:38:15

i'll give you i'll give you another

0:38:17

example

0:38:22

there are 3 500 publicly traded

0:38:22

companies

0:38:35

9.99 of humanity

0:38:35

right that makes you this number one out

0:38:38

of 10 000 people

0:38:40

if you were smarter than 99.99 of

0:38:43

humanity

0:38:44

there are 750 000 people on the planet

0:38:46

smarter than you

0:38:54

and 99 of them one

0:38:54

want what you have if you have a billion

0:38:57

dollars

0:38:58

if you if you have a publicly traded

0:38:59

company 99

0:39:01

of the people that that are smarter than

0:39:05

000 other people

0:39:08

don't have what you have and they can

0:39:11

probably raise a billion dollars

0:39:14

and chase you right they're harder

0:39:17

they're smarter they're faster they're

0:39:20

stronger

0:39:21

than you are right i'm sitting at a

0:39:25

company as

0:39:25

one of 3500 and the world is full of

0:39:29

people

0:39:30

that are smarter than me that can raise

0:39:32

a billion dollars

0:39:34

that want what we have want what i have

0:39:38

that's darwinian competition

0:39:41

like there's the view from one side of

0:39:45

the table which is

0:39:46

oh yeah well you made it you're

0:39:48

successful

0:39:50

there's the view on the other side of

0:39:53

there's a guy that's going to work 80

0:39:55

hours a week that's going to be

0:39:56

surrounded with 100 other people they're

0:39:57

going to work 70 hours a week they're

0:39:58

going to raise

0:39:59

infinite money that are going to target

0:40:01

you and do everything they can

0:40:03

to take your market from you

0:40:09

now that that's a very humbling

0:40:09

observation that's why

0:40:11

you can't rest on your laurels there's

0:40:14

something

0:40:15

beautiful right and that terrifying

0:40:18

concept that's what drives humanity

0:40:21

forward

0:40:22

keeps you honest right it is the core of

0:40:24

stoicism

0:40:25

and it it reminds you

0:40:29

your best chance is to focus all

0:40:32

of your energy all of your assets

0:40:36

on just this one thing that you're going

0:40:38

to be

0:40:39

the best in the world at and you better

0:40:40

stay humble

0:40:43

if i take my own business i came public

0:40:45

in 1998

0:40:47

there's a 99 mortality rate

0:40:52

99 out of the 100

0:40:55

companies i competed with are gone but

0:40:58

my peers i'm the only person

0:41:01

probably i'm probably i'm talking about

0:41:04

100 publicly traded companies

0:41:07

there's probably 500 ceos that launched

0:41:10

a company with

0:41:11

20 30 50 100 million dollars of capital

0:41:14

and they're all gone that's

0:41:17

what the open market the free market

0:41:20

will do

0:41:21

and it is what it is i mean that's

0:41:25

that's why the human race

0:41:26

is what they are right there's always

0:41:29

someone

0:41:31

and when they attack if you're

0:41:33

distracted

0:41:34

if you're arrogant if you're if you're

0:41:38

fat dumb happy comfortable they're going

0:41:41

to eat you

0:41:42

and if you're if you're half focused or

0:41:45

defocused they're going to take your arm

0:41:48

and if you completely focus

0:41:52

you can react if there's something

0:41:54

they're doing that's good

0:41:55

you channel it you inherit it you evolve

0:41:59

you you live and you grow stronger and

0:42:03

and otherwise you shrink and they

0:42:05

squeeze you out of the entire market

0:42:09

there's there's something i observe

0:42:12

and again it's it's very stoic it's

0:42:16

everybody everybody thinks

0:42:19

when you're when you're young you want

0:42:21

to acquire as much as you can acquire

0:42:23

so young men are acquisitive young young

0:42:26

business people are inquisitive

0:42:28

can you acquire the thing

0:42:31

that's generally the easiest hurdle to

0:42:33

jump the next question is can you

0:42:35

maintain

0:42:36

the thing can you stay competitive

0:42:38

that's ten times harder

0:42:40

and then the biggest hurdle is are you

0:42:43

going to be able to commercialize the

0:42:45

thing

0:42:46

or profit from it can you

0:42:50

buy something or build something and

0:42:52

continuously improve it

0:42:54

forever so that you're competitive and

0:42:56

then do it in a manner that is cheaper

0:42:58

such that you can charge more for it

0:43:00

than it costs you to do that thing

0:43:02

that's obscenely hard so typically

0:43:06

everybody thinks that they can acquire

0:43:07

something then they

0:43:09

when they realize the maintenance

0:43:10

requirements you know they fail

0:43:13

and then very few people ever get to the

0:43:14

point where they can commercialize

0:43:16

something

0:43:17

you can well you can apply to a boat

0:43:19

everybody wants to buy a boat

0:43:20

and then they're like oh my god this is

0:43:22

really expensive to maintain a boat and

0:43:24

i can't afford to maintain the boat

0:43:27

but if they buy the boat they got to

0:43:28

spend 10 a year

0:43:30

to maintain it and then at some point

0:43:33

the question is can you enjoy the boat

0:43:34

like oh i'm spending all this money on

0:43:36

the boat but i never have time to go out

0:43:37

and use the boat this is just crazy

0:43:39

there's a way

0:43:40

around my neck i gotta rid this it's an

0:43:42

example of

0:43:43

of um you know being too

0:43:46

ambitious in your inquisitiveness

0:43:50

and and it illustrates the law of

0:43:53

decimation

0:43:55

and the law of decimation is in ancient

0:43:57

roman republic if the legion screwed up

0:44:00

they killed one out of every 10 10 men

0:44:02

in the legion actually they made the

0:44:04

kill the tenth in order to remind them

0:44:08

that they should stay disciplined at

0:44:10

random right

0:44:11

yeah random randomly get randomly kept

0:44:14

they didn't kill them all because

0:44:15

there'd be no legion left so

0:44:17

so but one out of 10 is going to die if

0:44:19

you break ranks and

0:44:20

and retreat so is their way is their

0:44:22

ultimate punishment law of decimation

0:44:25

but but you can apply to everything in

0:44:28

life robert but it goes like this

0:44:31

the universe tends toward entropy and

0:44:33

disorder

0:44:35

if something will go wrong it does go

0:44:37

wrong that's murphy's law

0:44:44

the law of decimation is

0:44:44

one tenth of all the moving parts that

0:44:47

anything

0:44:48

will break in any given year if you have

0:44:51

10 employees

0:44:52

one will quit or become unhappy if you

0:44:55

have 10 moving parts

0:44:56

one will break if you have 10 plans

0:45:00

one will blow up in your face if you

0:45:02

have 10 features

0:45:03

one of them will stop working if you

0:45:06

have a hundred

0:45:07

ten of them will stop working if you

0:45:08

spend a hundred million dollars on

0:45:10

something you have spent ten million

0:45:11

dollars to maintain it

0:45:13

you're gonna have to divert ten percent

0:45:15

of the cost of anything

0:45:17

to maintain something i talked about

0:45:20

steel will last forever

0:45:21

quote if you maintain it most people

0:45:23

don't maintain it

0:45:25

it costs a lot of money to paint a steel

0:45:27

ship most people

0:45:29

they budget for the acquisition and they

0:45:32

underestimate the maintenance

0:45:34

because they don't have the humility or

0:45:36

the life experience

0:45:38

this is by the way the problem we're

0:45:40

building rube goldberg devices into

0:45:42

crypto networks

0:45:43

that's the problem with all the

0:45:44

complexity with ethereum and all the

0:45:47

complexity with some of these things

0:45:49

it sounds good on paper but

0:45:52

when you put 187 moving parts into

0:45:55

something and when one of them breaks

0:45:57

and the entire thing crashes

0:45:59

and burns and you die

0:46:02

it wasn't worth it you know when you're

0:46:06

young

0:46:07

you overestimate the value of

0:46:10

functionality

0:46:11

and acquisition and you underestimate

0:46:14

how how expensive is going to be

0:46:16

maintain things and then you really

0:46:18

underestimate this last issue

0:46:20

can you enjoy it can i

0:46:23

this is the basic rule of life can i buy

0:46:25

the thing can i maintain the thing can i

0:46:27

enjoy the thing

0:46:29

right this men are always reaching

0:46:32

beyond their fingertips

0:46:34

sometimes women do like they want too

0:46:38

they're empire builders this is why

0:46:40

napoleon should not have gone to moscow

0:46:42

this is why hitler might have gone to

0:46:44

moscow this is why you don't fight a war

0:46:46

on two fronts

0:46:52

this is and this is the essence of

0:46:52

stoicism but stoicism is really a

0:46:55

philosophy

0:46:56

that that is very consistent with

0:46:58

thermodynamics

0:47:00

and entropy and complexity theory

0:47:10

if you've ever run anything complicated

0:47:10

or built anything complicated

0:47:12

or or been responsible for anything

0:47:14

complicated

0:47:16

you know stuff breaks

0:47:23

is this do you think this

0:47:23

we'll call it a law of nature that 10 of

0:47:26

the components in a complex system break

0:47:30

and require maintenance yearly annually

0:47:33

is this

0:47:33

is this connected to the religious

0:47:36

tithing

0:47:36

you think where you're actually supposed

0:47:38

to feed the flame right with 10

0:47:40

of your profit to maintain the

0:47:41

institution

0:47:43

i think i think it's interesting the

0:47:45

extent to which you see the 10

0:47:47

number pop up on an annual basis

0:47:51

10 is the maintenance obligation on a

0:47:53

boat 10

0:47:55

is is the tiding obligation for

0:47:57

thousands of years

0:47:58

10 is a is a reasonable estimate

0:48:02

you know for a house with 187 light

0:48:05

bulbs

0:48:07

18 of them will burn out right it just

0:48:11

pops up

0:48:11

over and over again and uh

0:48:19

my only real explanation is just

0:48:19

friction

0:48:21

randomness chaos

0:48:25

life corrosion

0:48:29

weather right termites

0:48:33

bugs bacteria

0:48:36

the same would be true with your body

0:48:37

right if you're talking about

0:48:39

maintaining yourself

0:48:41

you got to actually allocate time and

0:48:43

energy to maintain yourself a lot of

0:48:44

times people

0:48:45

under invest in their own health

0:48:52

and then when they and when they under

0:48:52

invest in those things they blame it on

0:48:53

genetics so they blame it on

0:48:55

some unfortunate occurrence we don't

0:48:58

know why this happened it's very

0:49:00

unfortunate

0:49:01

these things just happen sometimes

0:49:08

i'll i'll end with one

0:49:08

one thought on stoicism and nicholas

0:49:11

talab would appreciate this one too it's

0:49:16

the words don't matter the action

0:49:19

matters

0:49:20

okay words are just words and

0:49:23

that applies to stoics you and me

0:49:27

and marcus aurelius i think one of the

0:49:30

great paradoxes of history

0:49:33

is marcus aurelius was the last emperor

0:49:36

in the line of the antonines during the

0:49:39

golden age of rome and there's

0:49:40

trajan and there's hadrian as marcus

0:49:43

antoninus

0:49:45

et cetera and for about 100 years

0:49:48

that was the pox romana and each of

0:49:51

those emperors

0:49:52

was elected based on virtue as an adult

0:49:56

and and he adopted his heir and they

0:49:58

just typically adopted a 40 year old

0:50:03

emperor who had had a uh a career in the

0:50:05

military of virtue and he was tough

0:50:08

and and responsible and grounded in

0:50:11

reality and and

0:50:12

he and uh you know if you're a general

0:50:15

in the army campaigning

0:50:16

and you get drunk and screw around

0:50:20

right your soldiers put a knife at you

0:50:23

you're not gonna make it

0:50:24

in order to keep the respect and stay

0:50:26

alive and in wartime

0:50:28

around a bunch of guys with weapons

0:50:31

you better be a good leader and they

0:50:34

better respect you because you're

0:50:35

leading them to their death

0:50:36

if they don't respect it so if you

0:50:38

actually rose through that

0:50:40

meritocracy you know maybe you had a

0:50:43

chance

0:50:45

so marcus aurelius writes the

0:50:47

meditations and it gets the

0:50:49

quintessential text

0:50:50

on stoicism and he says you know just

0:50:53

because you can't do a thing doesn't

0:50:55

mean you should do a thing

0:50:56

he said soon you will have forgotten all

0:50:59

and all will have forgotten you

0:51:01

and you should know your place in the

0:51:02

universe and you should submit yourself

0:51:05

and and do the right thing for everyone

0:51:09

and that's all good but at

0:51:12

the end of the day the single most

0:51:14

important decision marcus aurelia has

0:51:16

made in his entire career

0:51:17

and his life was the decision on an

0:51:20

heir and when it came time to make that

0:51:23

decision he failed

0:51:24

miserably and he appointed his son

0:51:27

commodus

0:51:27

to be the emperor and communist was a

0:51:29

minor and of weak

0:51:31

moral and intellectual constitution and

0:51:34

in no way shape or form qualified to be

0:51:36

emperor of all the known worlds

0:51:39

and and by by so doing that marcus

0:51:42

aurelius plunged the roman empire into

0:51:44

chaos and turmoil for hundreds of years

0:51:48

resulting in the deaths of millions if

0:51:51

tens or hundreds of millions of people

0:51:54

awful awful

0:51:58

and there's your philosopher king

0:52:02

he's remembered today as having written

0:52:04

a good book and vid a great start

0:52:05

but if you look at his actions the

0:52:08

actual action he took

0:52:10

was the least stoic most

0:52:13

foolish most painful

0:52:16

action of any of his foreign bears and

0:52:19

it just

0:52:20

makes the blood curdle that's i've

0:52:23

i've been anxiously waiting to talk

0:52:25

about this actually because i'm

0:52:26

a huge fan of marcus aurelius i that

0:52:29

particular episode is documented

0:52:32

somewhat well in the movie gladiator for

0:52:34

people who want to go out and watch it

0:52:36

um but he is also known to have been one

0:52:39

of the greatest

0:52:40

emperors of all time right up until that

0:52:43

point where he made that fateful

0:52:44

decision he was

0:52:46

he was great until the the succession

0:52:50

yeah he had all of the power of the

0:52:53

western world

0:52:54

in his hands he had keys right the

0:52:56

crypto keys to all the wealth and power

0:52:58

in the roman empire

0:53:01

in the gladiator that imply he was

0:53:03

murdered by his son

0:53:04

right but in the history books they

0:53:06

they're pretty important

0:53:08

handed that those keys to commodus

0:53:11

and communist was a disaster and he was

0:53:13

that plot platonic ideal

0:53:15

of the philosopher king right one of the

0:53:18

few maybe

0:53:19

possibly arguably the only successful

0:53:21

philosopher king

0:53:23

throughout history and i think one of

0:53:24

his other quotes that i really liked is

0:53:27

no man can lose any other life

0:53:31

than he now lives nor can he live any

0:53:33

other life than he now loses

0:53:36

and um stoicism has been big in my life

0:53:40

personally and i think it's necessary

0:53:43

for everything we've talked about today

0:53:45

for this eternal contention we have with

0:53:47

reality if you don't adopt a stoic

0:53:49

philosophy

0:53:50

how do you keep yourself together right

0:53:52

it's just

0:53:53

i think stoicism is critical and i think

0:53:56

he was a good writer

0:53:57

and i and i i would even probably admit

0:53:59

he was a good emperor

0:54:01

until that final decision until he blew

0:54:04

up which i

0:54:05

which i just lay out as a paradox and

0:54:08

maybe it's um

0:54:10

maybe it's a warning and the warning is

0:54:13

you could live a great life

0:54:14

and you could be a great writer and you

0:54:16

could be a great thinker

0:54:17

but at any given point it's always that

0:54:20

last decision

0:54:22

it's that you know you still have time

0:54:24

to snatch defeat from the jaws of

0:54:26

victory

0:54:27

right did he choose love over his

0:54:30

principles

0:54:31

is that what it was love for his son

0:54:33

over the principles of succession

0:54:36

presumably yeah interesting yeah

0:54:39

you can read it read up on it and come

0:54:41

to your own conclusion

0:54:42

it's just it's a short chapter

0:54:47

i think i i am at the last our last

0:54:49

point just on vitality anti-fragility

0:54:52

could be

0:54:53

a synonym for anti-fragility could be

0:54:56

um genetic vitality right

0:55:00

darwinian vitality if i'm involving

0:55:03

uh in response to threats as a life

0:55:07

force

0:55:08

then i'm anti-fragile and this is

0:55:11

darwin's

0:55:12

darwin's famous quote it's not the

0:55:14

strongest fastest or smartest species

0:55:16

that survives

0:55:17

but the one that's most adaptive to

0:55:18

change right

0:55:20

which makes it makes it anti-fragile

0:55:22

which makes it over time the strongest

0:55:24

right but just not in the near term

0:55:27

yeah there's a there's a certain

0:55:30

terrifying beauty

0:55:32

in nature um there are no ugly animals

0:55:36

you look at a bird that it's beautiful

0:55:38

you look at a you look at a lion in the

0:55:41

wild it's beautiful

0:55:42

no one's got a mangy coat there's no

0:55:45

unhealthy anything

0:55:47

and most people and that's our ideal of

0:55:49

beauty right

0:55:50

we think nature is beautiful all the

0:55:53

trees are beautiful the plants are

0:55:54

beautiful

0:55:55

the birds are beautiful they chirp

0:55:57

they're beautiful sounds the flowers are

0:56:01

what they don't really think about is

0:56:02

what's going on behind the scenes

0:56:04

because they've got this

0:56:05

this simple zoo backyard view of nature

0:56:10

i mean the truth is everything's at its

0:56:11

finest when

0:56:13

tomorrow is uncertain when the

0:56:16

when when the life of the creature

0:56:19

is uncertain um

0:56:23

i've actually got these beautiful banyan

0:56:25

vine trees in my back

0:56:27

of my house in florida one day on a

0:56:30

beautiful sunny day i walked by

0:56:32

and i and i stood and stared the tree

0:56:35

and i saw a bunch of ants running up and

0:56:38

and when i traced the ants i saw there

0:56:40

were thousands of ants and i saw there

0:56:42

was a centipede

0:56:44

some kind of millipede about a hundred

0:56:45

times bigger than a normal

0:56:47

and those ants had decided they were

0:56:49

going to eat that

0:56:50

they were actually going to haul that

0:56:52

millipede back to their

0:56:53

queen as dinner and they

0:56:56

attacked it relentlessly relentlessly

0:56:59

and i watched

0:57:01

hundreds and hundreds and then thousands

0:57:02

and thousands of ants going against this

0:57:04

one melbourne and it's fighting for its

0:57:07

life and i swear i watched it for 45

0:57:09

minutes

0:57:09

like a war non-stop on a beautiful sunny

0:57:13

if you looked around you would have saw

0:57:15

grass and blue sky

0:57:16

and pretty water and birds chirping but

0:57:19

there was a knock down

0:57:20

drag out war to devour this millipede

0:57:23

and it's fighting for its life and i

0:57:25

watched it crawl up the tree and the

0:57:26

ants dragged it down and

0:57:28

it did everything it could and they kept

0:57:30

coming and you just had this horrific

0:57:31

terrifying

0:57:33

you know sad conclusion it's gonna die

0:57:35

unless

0:57:37

unless a massive spins

0:57:40

up to blow water down and create some

0:57:43

disruption there's no

0:57:44

it's got no chance it's going to get

0:57:45

eaten alive

0:57:47

and it's horrific and it's terrifying

0:57:51

and that's life that's nature and then

0:57:53

you start to realize

0:57:56

on all those pretty national geographic

0:57:58

tv shows

0:57:59

you see the lions attack the antelope or

0:58:02

the gazelle

0:58:02

and they try and they miss like well no

0:58:04

dinner for you tonight no the antelope

0:58:06

trot off happy with their babies and the

0:58:08

lions trot off happy with a little smirk

0:58:10

and everybody's like that's about as

0:58:11

much nature as they want

0:58:14

nobody wants them more nature when you

0:58:16

think about it a bit more you realize

0:58:19

well they're gonna miss three four days

0:58:21

they're going to hit one of those

0:58:22

a week and that and and

0:58:31

29 of them are going to live but one of

0:58:31

them is going to die

0:58:32

and over three years they're all going

0:58:34

to die

0:58:38

to be eaten by the lions

0:58:40

and that's nature everyone

0:58:44

that's and by the way every week that

0:58:47

goes by

0:58:47

it's like they're clicking on a carousel

0:58:49

and the oldest one is getting slower

0:58:52

and a little bit a little bit tighter

0:58:54

and a little bit less flexible

0:58:56

and if they don't get the old one

0:58:59

they're gonna get the unlucky one

0:59:01

and that's why every one of them is

0:59:03

beautiful

0:59:04

because they're all in the prime of

0:59:06

their life and the same is true with all

0:59:08

the predators they're all in the primary

0:59:10

life when they get a little bit old

0:59:12

a little bit hurt they get driven out of

0:59:14

the tribe or out of the pride and then

0:59:16

that's end of it so in nature

0:59:19

the life expectancy of those wolves or

0:59:21

predators or lions is five years and in

0:59:24

the zoo is 15 years and if you want to

0:59:26

see a fat

0:59:27

mangy lame one you'll find one in the

0:59:30

you won't find one in wild and the same

0:59:33

is true with the rest

0:59:34

and when those two herds when they go at

0:59:37

each other

0:59:38

like that viciously they're both

0:59:40

strengthening

0:59:42

you take away the wolves from the deer

0:59:45

the deer overpopulate

0:59:47

they eat all of the trees the trees all

0:59:50

the trees die they destabilize the bank

0:59:53

men of the river

0:59:55

the river erodes everything you know the

0:59:57

riverbank gets screwed up

0:59:59

all the greenery dies all the deer are

1:00:03

all the wolves of god you want to fix

1:00:05

the river you put the wolf back in the

1:00:07

wolf scares away

1:00:09

the deer the trees grow the roots

1:00:12

stabilize the bank

1:00:13

the river flows all the wildlife retain

1:00:16

returns

1:00:18

this beautiful thing we call nature is

1:00:20

in continual dynamic

1:00:22

equilibrium and everything about it is

1:00:25

getting stronger

1:00:27

and harder and faster and getting cold

1:00:30

all the time you know and

1:00:40

the mother nature is supreme

1:00:40

and men with delusions

1:00:43

that they will defeat her

1:00:50

right are are gonna be disappointed

1:00:50

right the great i guess the great

1:00:54

challenge

1:00:54

right is this paradox and the paradox is

1:00:56

the paradox of the engineer

1:00:59

versus the zookeeper

1:01:02

we see nature we want to engineer a

1:01:05

better world for ourselves

1:01:07

and it can be done but we can always

1:01:10

we can also reach too far and try too

1:01:14

and and try to and try to make water

1:01:16

flow uphill

1:01:17

and try to make time flow backwards

1:01:21

we can try to shake our fist of mother

1:01:23

nature

1:01:25

we can defeat all those all of those

1:01:27

natural forces

1:01:29

and if we try to do that the energy

1:01:32

consumption

1:01:38

goes up exponentially and eventually it

1:01:39

goes up to such a level

1:01:41

that we deplete ourselves of energy and

1:01:44

we end up like those natives on easter

1:01:46

island

1:01:48

where you chop down every tree to

1:01:50

villager monuments to your gods and

1:01:52

pretty soon there's no canoes and pretty

1:01:54

soon there's no fish and pretty soon

1:01:55

there's no food and pretty soon there's

1:01:56

no you

1:01:57

all you've got is your monuments to your

1:01:59

god and you're all dead

1:02:01

because you depleted the energy in the

1:02:02

ecosystem

1:02:04

and in of over engineering

1:02:08

your reality let me ask you about

1:02:11

that point which i think is fantastic

1:02:16

it seems to me like the free market

1:02:19

is the economic expression of that

1:02:22

darwinian

1:02:23

equilibrium and that possibly with the

1:02:27

the implementation actually of central

1:02:29

banking

1:02:30

which is a you know it's antithetical to

1:02:33

a free market

1:02:34

institution it is it's a mono it's a

1:02:36

monopoly

1:02:37

it has i guess in our attempt to over

1:02:40

engineer the economy we have disturbed

1:02:43

that darwinian equilibrium in the

1:02:45

economy and that's why we're having all

1:02:46

these haywire

1:02:47

consequences like inflation and negative

1:02:49

rates and so on and so forth

1:02:51

yeah we've stopped

1:02:54

we've stopped it right we've attempted

1:02:56

to stop

1:02:57

time and and and interfere with nature

1:03:01

but we're we're trying to freeze that

1:03:03

dynamic equilibrium that's being

1:03:05

continually

1:03:16

trying to turn we're trying to turn

1:03:16

nature

1:03:17

into a zoo

1:03:40

okay so that was episode nine with

1:03:40

sailor

1:03:40

here in the sailor series and wow what

1:03:43

an episode

1:03:46

you know we started off this series

1:03:48

actually with a discussion of

1:03:50

stone age technologies which michael

1:03:53

laid out

1:03:53

his thesis of how mankind

1:03:57

is the dominant animal in the world

1:03:59

because we channel energy

1:04:01

across time and space more intelligently

1:04:03

than any other animal

1:04:05

and he really built the foundation by

1:04:08

drilling into

1:04:10

our use of fire as one of the primordial

1:04:13

energy networks

1:04:14

uh our use of water as a hydraulic

1:04:17

energy network for overcoming gravity

1:04:19

and our use of missiles for actually uh

1:04:21

competing

1:04:22

at a distance and in that

1:04:26

lens if we consider that that is the the

1:04:29

overarching

1:04:30

goal of humanity right is to more

1:04:33

intelligently or more precisely

1:04:35

channel energy across time and space um

1:04:39

bitcoin is a an elemental innovation

1:04:42

right it's the only system we've ever

1:04:44

had throughout history

1:04:46

that allows us to channel energy uh you

1:04:49

know effectively at the speed of light

1:04:52

and store it in a way that is totally

1:04:55

or virtually totally loss minimized

1:04:57

right there's no

1:04:58

unexpected inflation for instance and

1:05:01

there's very

1:05:02

minimal transaction fees just enough to

1:05:04

sustain the network

1:05:06

and you could contrast us with some

1:05:07

something like gold uh

1:05:09

which we touched on earlier that just

1:05:10

depreciates to two percent a year at

1:05:12

least

1:05:13

or something like fiat currency which

1:05:14

tends to depreciate much faster

1:05:16

so it takes a lot maybe to get to here

1:05:20

it's a whole reframing of your world

1:05:23

but i think sailor just did an excellent

1:05:25

job of that and

1:05:26

i love the example he gave

1:05:29

where describing immunology actually is

1:05:33

another one of these elemental

1:05:34

innovations where we figured out

1:05:36

antiseptics um we figured out how to use

1:05:39

clean medical instruments

1:05:40

um and disinfectants and whatnot and

1:05:43

then in the discovery penicillin for

1:05:45

instance all of these things

1:05:47

that helped us insulate ourselves from

1:05:50

the entropy

1:05:50

of of microbes right to be to

1:05:53

conduct medical and biological

1:05:56

experiments

1:05:57

and and operations with less exposure to

1:06:00

the entropy of nature

1:06:01

just catapulted our life expectancy

1:06:04

right we

1:06:05

almost overnight went from say 50 year

1:06:07

average life expectancy

1:06:09

to 70 years so i wonder

1:06:13

it and i love this the way he describes

1:06:16

it is

1:06:17

doing business right we're conducting

1:06:20

economics

1:06:21

thus far in history with dirty money

1:06:23

with contaminated money

1:06:25

uh and you could you can analogize this

1:06:28

to doing surgery with contaminated

1:06:30

medical instruments

1:06:31

right if you don't if you don't um

1:06:35

if you don't decontaminate your medical

1:06:37

instruments and you try to perform

1:06:39

surgery on someone you're going to cause

1:06:40

an infection and you're going to cause

1:06:42

death

1:06:42

and this was actually a major cause of

1:06:44

death throughout most of history

1:06:46

so in a s through a similar lens if

1:06:50

we're trying to build socioeconomic

1:06:52

systems

1:06:53

using a money that's contaminated with

1:06:56

the uncertainty of inflation

1:06:58

or confiscation or deauthorization it

1:07:01

it tends to make me believe that the

1:07:04

system we would build

1:07:07

would be more vulnerable to death as

1:07:09

well and i think that

1:07:11

a quick study of history will show you

1:07:13

that typically the debasement

1:07:14

of money tends to presage the collapse

1:07:16

of the civilization so

1:07:18

when the money becomes extra

1:07:20

contaminated this tends to be

1:07:22

a specter or a harbinger of its ultimate

1:07:26

demise

1:07:27

so i love this analogy and it

1:07:30

it really gets into the the entropy

1:07:32

aspect again if we just consider that

1:07:33

entropy is uncertainty

1:07:35

we want medical instruments that are

1:07:37

free from the uncertainty of microbial

1:07:39

infection

1:07:40

we want economic instruments that are

1:07:41

free from the uncertainty of inflation

1:07:43

deauthorization confiscation like it

1:07:45

just makes sense

1:07:46

the the more certainty we can add to our

1:07:50

tool set whether in the medical or the

1:07:51

economic domain

1:07:53

the more longevity we can give the

1:07:55

organism or

1:07:56

or the organization right it just makes

1:07:58

sense

1:08:00

so and you know as sailor said

1:08:04

earlier monetary energy being the

1:08:07

highest form of energy that humans can

1:08:09

channel

1:08:10

and channeling energy across space and

1:08:11

time being the highest aim of man

1:08:14

that effectively monetary energy is life

1:08:16

energy right it gives us a claim on all

1:08:18

of the forms of energy

1:08:20

so we can think of

1:08:23

encryption actually i think cylinder

1:08:26

tweeted this at one point that

1:08:27

encryption was the

1:08:28

the destiny of all money the destiny of

1:08:30

money is to be encrypted

1:08:32

we can think of encryption itself as a

1:08:33

sterilization

1:08:35

function or process for money right

1:08:38

we've actually

1:08:39

disinfected the money by encrypting its

1:08:41

its rules and its supply

1:08:43

um and this you know that kind of

1:08:47

hardens back to something we talked

1:08:48

about in earlier episodes as well

1:08:50

where uh consumer packaged goods when

1:08:52

we're able to vacuum seal foods

1:08:55

and store food energy in a stable

1:08:58

fashion at room temperature that was a

1:08:59

game changer

1:09:00

all of a sudden we had this abundance

1:09:04

of economic surplus and food energy that

1:09:06

we could distribute around the world

1:09:08

and this led to a surge in population

1:09:10

growth

1:09:11

so all these analogies pointing back to

1:09:14

this breakthrough that that is bitcoin

1:09:16

uh that again we've been building on in

1:09:17

early episodes i just found to be super

1:09:19

exciting

1:09:21

and then you know in in that lens sailor

1:09:24

also talked about the story of his

1:09:25

mother actually being diabetic

1:09:27

and this was the connection i made there

1:09:31

she was essentially following a

1:09:33

governmental food advisory right just

1:09:35

eating the typical

1:09:36

uh food pyramid that governments at

1:09:39

least the us government used to advise

1:09:41

which had carbs is kind of the staple

1:09:43

the big thing at the bottom

1:09:44

bread pasta etc and then worked its way

1:09:48

whereas in fact uh anyone that studied

1:09:52

ketogenics and paleo diets and whatnot

1:09:55

it tends to actually be the opposite you

1:09:57

want low carb high fat or high protein

1:09:59

diets

1:10:01

and it's not the same it's not one size

1:10:03

fits all but

1:10:04

a lot of the diseases we suffer from

1:10:06

today like

1:10:08

diabetes is from excessive carb

1:10:11

consumption

1:10:12

so the connection i made there was that

1:10:14

this government

1:10:16

food pyramid scheme or mistake whatever

1:10:19

you want to call it

1:10:20

whether the intention was good or bad

1:10:23

it's actually rooted in

1:10:25

the government fiat currency pyramid

1:10:27

scheme where

1:10:29

we have contaminated the money

1:10:32

so we've contaminated even the the

1:10:35

uh ideologies we put out in terms of

1:10:38

nutrition

1:10:39

and it just has these cascading effects

1:10:43

and i just i thought it was really

1:10:45

interesting how again inflation is not

1:10:47

just contaminating our economic efforts

1:10:49

but it actually bleeds over into the

1:10:50

biological domain

1:10:53

so as sailor said

1:10:57

fiat currency is toxic money right it's

1:11:01

it's not sound it is it is not

1:11:04

entropy free it's infected with entropy

1:11:06

and this has all these second order

1:11:08

effects to everything that it touches

1:11:12

the main problem is

1:11:15

this misunderstanding about inflation

1:11:17

right we have this

1:11:18

this whole economic sphere today focus

1:11:21

on cpi

1:11:22

is inflation but it doesn't make any

1:11:25

sense at all

1:11:27

there's deeper reasons why if you read a

1:11:28

book like human action by myself that

1:11:31

you can never have an index for

1:11:32

inflation because

1:11:34

sort of like value itself

1:11:38

or beauty it's subjective right it's

1:11:41

based on the things you individually

1:11:43

desire

1:11:44

based on the course of your own goal

1:11:45

directed action so there's not a

1:11:47

universal index that can fit everyone

1:11:50

your own inflation number is a basket of

1:11:53

these goods that you're seeking

1:11:55

and um they you know the government

1:11:58

metric is just taking

1:12:00

what they you know assume to be things

1:12:02

that are desirable

1:12:03

but exclude assets so it's like they're

1:12:06

excluding the fact that anyone wants to

1:12:07

get wealthy which is absurd

1:12:09

they're also excluding food and energy

1:12:12

and other

1:12:13

volatile assets volatile meaning

1:12:16

they changed in price we're talking

1:12:18

about a metric

1:12:20

that is intended to reflect price

1:12:23

changes excluding things that changed in

1:12:25

price

1:12:25

it is a non-starter it's absolutely

1:12:27

crazy

1:12:28

and this is still the benchmark number

1:12:32

that so many people are focused on

1:12:34

and it's just amazing to me as uh still

1:12:37

goes on

1:12:38

so i think and i love the the discussion

1:12:41

flowed into

1:12:42

understanding inflation which for me i

1:12:45

think this makes more sense is

1:12:46

if you think about it in rate of change

1:12:48

terms

1:12:49

as in how many dollars are being

1:12:51

produced the growth in dollar production

1:12:53

relative to the growth

1:12:55

in good or service production right if

1:12:57

the pace

1:12:58

of fiat currency production is outpacing

1:13:01

the productivity gains or the output on

1:13:04

a particular good or service

1:13:05

it's going to inflate in price because

1:13:08

you have more dollars

1:13:09

chasing the same or only slightly

1:13:11

growing

1:13:13

goods or services so another way to say

1:13:15

that is how energy intensive

1:13:17

is the good right and the the example

1:13:19

that i like to think about is

1:13:21

ribeye steak we're not going to invent

1:13:25

a technological breakthrough that makes

1:13:26

cows grow faster really right it still

1:13:28

requires kind of the same amount of

1:13:29

sunlight and energy and time and

1:13:31

processing

1:13:32

to deliver a ribeye steak so um and

1:13:36

it turns out historically that actually

1:13:37

the the purchasing power of gold

1:13:40

maps pretty nicely to um to ribeye steak

1:13:43

cows more generally um

1:13:47

and so in that way it's it's

1:13:50

inflation is not a single universal

1:13:54

phenomenon that we can peg to one index

1:13:56

number

1:13:57

it's occurring differently for every

1:13:59

asset

1:14:00

and every person in every place at every

1:14:03

it's it's just it's this undulating

1:14:06

sphere of changing economic values you

1:14:09

can't

1:14:09

possibly just put a number to and say

1:14:11

that as inflation

1:14:13

um another way to say that is it's just

1:14:16

uneven

1:14:16

across space and time so you're dumping

1:14:19

new money supply into the system

1:14:21

that money itself is distributed on the

1:14:23

evenly and then the aims of economic

1:14:25

actors are shifting unevenly as well

1:14:27

right supply

1:14:28

and demand so it's just

1:14:31

hubris to think that we could peg it all

1:14:33

to one index number

1:14:35

and then you know to that point

1:14:39

sailor makes a more sound argument

1:14:42

that a more appropriate measure of

1:14:45

inflation knowing that we can't peg it

1:14:46

to a number

1:14:47

but what we can do is say well what do

1:14:49

things what are things that people

1:14:50

generally

1:14:51

desire and how much are their prices

1:14:54

changing year over year

1:14:55

he gave the example of early retirement

1:14:57

premier real estate

1:14:59

um you know things like this things that

1:15:00

people actually want in life

1:15:02

you don't go to work uh to think i just

1:15:05

want to put food on the table for the

1:15:07

rest of my life like at some point you'd

1:15:08

like to work towards an aim or a goal

1:15:10

whether that's a nice home

1:15:12

living in a nice neighborhood possibly

1:15:15

you know i love the example of early

1:15:16

retirement where you can just buy a

1:15:18

government bond

1:15:19

that pays you a you know quote-unquote

1:15:21

risk-free rate

1:15:23

for the next 30 years um and

1:15:26

and looking at the price and of

1:15:28

government bonds and how much that's

1:15:30

jumped uh based on based on

1:15:33

monetary policy so i thought that was

1:15:36

just a great example and um

1:15:43

it's interesting because i think when

1:15:43

you really

1:15:45

get the first principles on it

1:15:48

inflation as we define it fiat currency

1:15:51

inflation which is just an

1:15:52

arbitrary increase in the money supply

1:15:55

that adds no economic value to an

1:15:58

economy whatsoever this is very

1:15:59

important to understand

1:16:01

that printing money in quote-unquote

1:16:04

you're not infusing an economy with any

1:16:07

new factors of production whether this

1:16:10

human time ingenuity tools equipment

1:16:13

factories like there's nothing being

1:16:15

added to the economy

1:16:17

you've just reshuffled the paper claims

1:16:19

on those productive factors

1:16:21

so you've you've taken away from those

1:16:24

relying on fiat currency or the dollars

1:16:26

of store value and you've reallocated

1:16:28

those claims to whoever can get their

1:16:30

hands on the newly printed money first

1:16:32

and spend it first so it's

1:16:39

it's it is a mechanism for theft i don't

1:16:39

know what else to call it frankly it

1:16:41

only has one purpose

1:16:43

all right you could you can argue about

1:16:44

the intentionality

1:16:46

whatever i'm not i'm not here to debate

1:16:48

that i can just tell you that the tool

1:16:50

fiat currency the inflation of fiat

1:16:53

currency has only

1:16:54

one purpose and that is to reallocate

1:16:56

wealth from some

1:16:57

and allocate it to others against their

1:17:00

by the way so i don't know what else you

1:17:02

could call that really besides stuff

1:17:04

and it seems to me like this

1:17:07

keynesian ideology feels like a cover-up

1:17:11

i mean i i don't know if they just

1:17:13

believe what they're saying about

1:17:15

inflation you know

1:17:16

sailor he was arguing that they bled

1:17:18

george washington

1:17:19

to death and they thought that was the

1:17:20

best course of action maybe that is the

1:17:22

maybe keynesian economists are so deeply

1:17:26

steeped

1:17:27

in in this ideology that they just can't

1:17:30

their own hand in front of their face so

1:17:32

to speak um

1:17:34

or perhaps it's something more nefarious

1:17:37

more of a propagandistic thing but but

1:17:40

regardless

1:17:41

i love the point that

1:17:45

and he tied this into an old uh i think

1:17:47

was a german

1:17:48

propaganda machine says their studies

1:17:50

show them that they

1:17:51

can't tell people what to think but they

1:17:55

can tell people what to think about

1:17:58

and it is amazing to me how many

1:18:02

uh sophisticated investors i've talked

1:18:04

to about bitcoin and macroeconomics over

1:18:06

the years

1:18:08

and people are just anchored to cpi as

1:18:11

inflation it's as

1:18:13

if this this wool has just been pulled

1:18:15

over their eyes that

1:18:17

they are satisfied with the answer

1:18:19

presented to them

1:18:20

versus thinking more deeply about it i

1:18:22

can't help think it's related to this

1:18:24

right it's just it's pushed as

1:18:27

the represent representation of

1:18:29

inflation and people just

1:18:31

accept it at face value which

1:18:34

is just a really bad deal all the way

1:18:36

around so

1:18:39

we got into a bit of discussion about

1:18:42

interest rates

1:18:44

and his analogy of actually suppressing

1:18:47

is freezing out market participants are

1:18:49

sucking the air out of the room

1:18:51

right we're actually if you consider

1:18:53

that the interest rate

1:18:54

is the price of money money is this tool

1:18:58

for trading

1:18:59

time and energy we could consider that

1:19:01

the interest rate is the price

1:19:02

of time or energy effectively and

1:19:05

when you try and suppress it you're

1:19:08

you're

1:19:09

fighting against uh the natural flow of

1:19:13

time if you will

1:19:14

or something of that effect and it's

1:19:16

it's this misguided attempt

1:19:18

to try and mute entropy

1:19:22

that causes uh it's an eye

1:19:25

what to love would call this is an

1:19:27

iotrogenic effect

1:19:28

so it's harm caused by the healer

1:19:31

when um someone over medicates

1:19:35

you know again back to george washington

1:19:37

they thought they were helping george

1:19:38

washington by bleeding him

1:19:39

but they were actually hurting him all

1:19:41

right they actually killed him by doing

1:19:43

um there's you know many doctors today

1:19:46

will prescribe you

1:19:48

a pill for your cholesterol or your your

1:19:51

anxiety or whatever it may be whereas

1:19:53

in fact the right treatment of the core

1:19:57

problem right not just a drug to cover

1:19:59

up the symptoms

1:20:00

could be something more like a removal

1:20:03

elimination of certain foods from your

1:20:05

diet or fasting

1:20:06

or whatever it may be

1:20:15

and it this to me it points towards

1:20:15

what central banks i mean ostensibly at

1:20:18

least have been trying to do

1:20:20

is that they're trying

1:20:23

their their explicit aim is price

1:20:26

stability and low unemployment

1:20:28

so price stability

1:20:32

you're saying that you want supply and

1:20:35

demand

1:20:35

worldwide to be like consistently close

1:20:38

enough to keep prices stable it just

1:20:40

doesn't make any sense

1:20:41

it's it's it you're you're

1:20:44

arguing against the entropy of nature

1:20:46

again and

1:20:48

when you try and artificially inflate

1:20:51

the money supply to create this

1:20:53

veneer of stability you're actually just

1:20:56

delaying

1:20:57

your your first or you're manipulating

1:20:59

market prices so

1:21:02

supply and demand buyers and sellers are

1:21:04

having trouble getting matched up

1:21:05

correctly which is what the market does

1:21:07

because of this

1:21:08

this distortion in the marketplace but

1:21:10

you're also delaying and exacerbating

1:21:12

the ultimate correction because you

1:21:14

can't fool

1:21:15

economic reality and

1:21:18

in that way i see the the

1:21:21

vision i have in mind is central banking

1:21:24

is kind of like an air conditioner

1:21:26

so it's trying to pump you know an air

1:21:29

conditioner is a heat pump so it's

1:21:30

pulling entropy out of the room it's not

1:21:32

actually putting cold air into the room

1:21:33

it's pulling hot air out of the room or

1:21:35

heat energy out of the room and if

1:21:37

you've ever stood behind an air

1:21:39

conditioner

1:21:40

you'll feel it you'll feel the heat

1:21:41

coming off of it that it's pumping out

1:21:43

of that

1:21:43

room that it's air conditioning and it

1:21:46

seems like central bank is trying to

1:21:47

accomplish that in a way

1:21:48

it's trying to paper over the entropy

1:21:51

the natural entropy of price instability

1:21:54

and unemployment

1:21:55

but in doing so it's it's pumping out

1:21:59

uh you know it's creating certainty for

1:22:01

its shareholders let's say

1:22:03

um so it's decreasing the entropy for

1:22:05

its shareholders but it's pumping out

1:22:07

entropy onto broader society in the form

1:22:10

of price distortions

1:22:12

an exacerbated boom and bust business

1:22:14

cycle and you could even throw warfare

1:22:16

in there

1:22:16

right central banks were originally set

1:22:19

up to fund warfare to give governments

1:22:22

a virtual limitless mechanism

1:22:25

for funding war where instead of just

1:22:27

needing to rely on their own savings

1:22:29

they could just print money

1:22:30

and and siphon savings off the entire

1:22:32

productive economy

1:22:34

so that's my central bank air

1:22:38

conditioning analogy that it's it's

1:22:39

trying to

1:22:41

cool the room for its shareholders with

1:22:43

pumping heat onto broader society and

1:22:46

it's just

1:22:47

disastrous

1:22:48

[Music]

1:22:50

so then we we got into the relationship

1:22:53

between

1:22:55

interest rates and the risk-free rate

1:22:59

i'm sorry inflation rates and the

1:23:01

risk-free rate so the risk-free rate

1:23:03

would be

1:23:03

the yield on government bonds so in

1:23:06

finance we say that

1:23:08

and this is a quote-unquote risk free

1:23:10

rate that the us government for instance

1:23:12

cannot default on its debt because it

1:23:14

can always just print more money to to

1:23:16

pay its principal

1:23:17

what that actually means is that it can

1:23:19

never default on its debt because it can

1:23:21

externalize the cost of that debt onto

1:23:23

society

1:23:24

via inflation so that's your risk-free

1:23:27

rate whatever the u.s

1:23:28

10 or 30-year treasury is yielding and

1:23:30

then there's the inflation rate which is

1:23:32

how quickly again not cpi

1:23:34

but we could say our proxy is how

1:23:36

quickly is the us m2

1:23:38

increasing on a percentage basis and the

1:23:40

delta between these two

1:23:42

is a negative real yield right if i can

1:23:45

only get

1:23:45

two percent on u.s treasuries which is

1:23:47

it's lower than that today

1:23:49

but usm2 is growing at 15 year-over-year

1:23:52

it's expected to do that for the next

1:23:53

few years then i've got a negative real

1:23:55

yield

1:23:56

of 13 so unless i'm growing my business

1:24:00

or my own personal cash flows by more

1:24:02

than 13

1:24:03

year-over-year then i'm being diluted

1:24:06

i'm losing

1:24:07

money um and this is

1:24:11

so that's the hurdle rate basically to

1:24:13

use an another investment term you need

1:24:15

to at least exceed

1:24:17

the delta between inflation uh and the

1:24:20

risk-free rate

1:24:21

to even be accretive to your business or

1:24:24

your your household whatever it may be

1:24:28

so the only way to do this is you need

1:24:31

to buy an equity

1:24:33

right and a lot of people are doing this

1:24:35

they're buying equities as a store value

1:24:36

that is expected to appreciate

1:24:39

faster than that negative real yield

1:24:42

um a lot of this is in tech because tech

1:24:44

has uh

1:24:45

just a ton of productivity gains

1:24:47

associated with it

1:24:49

and they've had you know a great decade

1:24:51

so that their their

1:24:52

start to be market actor expectations

1:24:55

built into that price

1:24:57

or if you look at the p e ratio of

1:24:59

something like

1:25:00

zoom or even tesla or facebook they're

1:25:03

they're astronomically high relative to

1:25:06

historic averages

1:25:07

so another way to think about that is

1:25:11

there's nowhere to store your value um

1:25:13

that's safe

1:25:15

except these equities that are expected

1:25:17

to grow and outpace the hurdle rate and

1:25:19

remain

1:25:19

relatively scarce um

1:25:23

so that leaves you with these

1:25:27

bonds that are you know they're yielding

1:25:29

less than the inflation rate they're

1:25:30

long-term dilutive

1:25:33

and then those negative real yields

1:25:35

that's driving

1:25:36

and incentivizing people to buy scarce

1:25:39

assets

1:25:40

so again equities real estate

1:25:43

um gold and then you know this is

1:25:47

also the bucket you put bitcoin's value

1:25:49

prop in is that it's the scarcest liquid

1:25:51

asset in human history so of course it's

1:25:53

going to benefit

1:25:54

um from this essentially planned market

1:25:56

manipulation in both

1:25:58

the bond and fiat currency markets

1:26:01

so and we talked a bit about this just

1:26:05

the one way to strip out central bank

1:26:08

market manipulation and get an honest

1:26:10

assessment

1:26:11

of what's going on is to just price the

1:26:14

index

1:26:14

in gold or bitcoin again bitcoin's a bit

1:26:17

more noisy because it's emergent

1:26:19

gold has a much longer history or to say

1:26:22

this one could also price it

1:26:25

in the change in money supply and this

1:26:27

will strip out a lot of the manipulation

1:26:29

so if you look at the past

1:26:30

decade in the s p it's been one long

1:26:32

bull market

1:26:34

you price that same chart in gold it's

1:26:37

or it hasn't done a lot so that's

1:26:40

i think really important uh as far as

1:26:42

changing your economic frame of

1:26:44

reference

1:26:45

um which is what's so tricky about

1:26:47

talking

1:26:48

about these things about like what is

1:26:50

money because it's it's an

1:26:52

a priori perception

1:26:55

and a priority means uh no priors so

1:26:58

it's kind of like the

1:26:59

you're you're you're looking at what is

1:27:01

looking so to speak

1:27:03

and people just the the a priori

1:27:07

uh economic language today is dollars

1:27:10

for most people this is what they think

1:27:11

in that's what they trade in and

1:27:12

negotiate in

1:27:14

but you have to look at the dilution

1:27:16

occurring in that frame of reference

1:27:18

which is the dollar

1:27:19

so it's it's a bit of a meta thinking

1:27:21

but it's really important for

1:27:24

coming to sound economic conclusions and

1:27:26

calculations

1:27:28

and then we got into which i thought was

1:27:31

really interesting this the competition

1:27:33

in the law of decimation

1:27:35

say let me the point that even if you're

1:27:37

smarter

1:27:38

than 99 i've never thought about this

1:27:41

say you are one of the top 0.1

1:27:45

most intelligent people in the world you

1:27:47

were smarter than 99.99

1:27:49

of humanity there are still on this

1:27:52

planet

1:27:53

750 000 people smarter than you

1:27:57

like i it's just crazy to me to think of

1:27:59

it that way

1:28:00

and in the digital age

1:28:04

i think what we're entering is this age

1:28:06

of excellency almost where

1:28:08

because you know the bounds of location

1:28:13

have been lifted

1:28:14

through through digital tools and

1:28:15

technologies you're it's no longer good

1:28:17

enough to just be

1:28:19

the best local guy whatever it is

1:28:22

singing for instance so maybe you're a

1:28:24

billy joel impersonator or something

1:28:27

it's no longer a good career strategy to

1:28:29

just be the best

1:28:30

uh billy joel impersonator in your

1:28:33

neighborhood

1:28:34

because people have youtube now they can

1:28:35

go and look at the best billy joel

1:28:38

impersonator of all time

1:28:39

or maybe even billy joel himself and

1:28:43

that they can seek their entertainment

1:28:44

there so you start competing

1:28:46

for audience with the best of the best

1:28:49

in any domain that can be conducted

1:28:51

remotely which you know increasingly

1:28:53

is is every domain so

1:28:57

this means that excellency is going to

1:28:59

have more of a tendency to rise to the

1:29:01

surface

1:29:02

and that markets more typically are

1:29:04

going to converge on winner take all

1:29:06

dynamics

1:29:07

so it changes things a lot you know this

1:29:10

this non-locality or

1:29:12

um not being bound by geography really

1:29:14

changes the game a lot in a lot of ways

1:29:17

so say this point was you've got to

1:29:19

focus

1:29:20

your energies to compete well on

1:29:23

your specialty whatever that is whatever

1:29:26

skill set or unique ability you have

1:29:27

whatever gift you might have

1:29:29

uh and you got to stay humble and you

1:29:31

just really have to focus

1:29:33

on on that and developing it to the best

1:29:35

of your ability

1:29:37

but also maintain the humility i think

1:29:39

necessary to succeed and learn

1:29:41

and grow uh and you know any time

1:29:45

as he was describing his experience at

1:29:47

microstrategy it's just

1:29:48

it's ferociously competitive anytime you

1:29:51

become arrogant

1:29:52

or comfortable or resting on your

1:29:53

laurels one of those 750 000 people are

1:29:56

just going to eat you up

1:29:57

right they can go out raise much money

1:29:59

they want what you have by definition

1:30:01

if you're successful so

1:30:06

if anything digital tech has made the

1:30:06

world more fiercely competitive which i

1:30:08

thought was really interesting

1:30:10

and uh as far as the law of

1:30:14

decimation you know we brought up the

1:30:16

point that in ancient rome

1:30:18

there was the law the law of decimation

1:30:22

any time the soldiers broke ranks or

1:30:24

retreated

1:30:26

that 10 of them would randomly be put to

1:30:28

death and they would make the other

1:30:29

nine put the 10th to death and what this

1:30:33

was a massive disincentive to male

1:30:35

performance

1:30:36

so no one wanted everyone had a big

1:30:39

incentive

1:30:40

to hold the line so to speak and to act

1:30:42

in a concerted effort because if they

1:30:44

didn't if they if they got fearful

1:30:48

or or started um you know kind of

1:30:50

operating their own individual best

1:30:52

interests in a battle

1:30:53

where you need the collective effort of

1:30:55

the battalion to win

1:30:57

then they they're engaging in this

1:30:59

lottery where

1:31:00

either they're going to be put to death

1:31:01

or you know at least one in

1:31:03

10 of their friends is going to be put

1:31:05

to death so i thought that was really

1:31:07

interesting

1:31:07

um a really good system for inducing

1:31:11

skin in the game and it turns out that

1:31:15

this is again kind of getting back into

1:31:18

natural law it's sort of a reflection of

1:31:19

what we observe in nature

1:31:21

and that one in 10 of any

1:31:24

anything any system with 10 moving parts

1:31:27

one is going to break down per year

1:31:28

roughly so

1:31:29

10 uh breakdown in parts or features

1:31:34

per year um and

1:31:37

i thought that was interesting i

1:31:39

observed that as just being

1:31:41

again we're creating these systems that

1:31:44

are intended to

1:31:45

confront the entropy of nature and deal

1:31:47

with it in certain ways well that has a

1:31:50

right and every year by some universal

1:31:53

magic that number tends to be about 10

1:31:56

which i thought was interesting

1:31:57

and this pointed back to steel sailor

1:31:59

referred to like steel will last forever

1:32:01

if you maintain it so you need to expend

1:32:04

uh the 10

1:32:05

whatever per year to maintain it in

1:32:06

terms of painting it uh

1:32:09

maybe this is also related to the

1:32:10

religious tithing which we see as like a

1:32:12

contribution annually to the institution

1:32:15

uh and that's that's across the number

1:32:17

of religions

1:32:18

and i think this too points to a

1:32:21

strength of bitcoin is that

1:32:24

it actually has minimized moving parts

1:32:27

so um and it's it's open source so

1:32:30

anything that does break down as is

1:32:33

there's as many eyes on it as possible

1:32:34

to quickly repair it but but it

1:32:36

minimizes

1:32:37

it's saying in comparison to something

1:32:39

like ethereum that just has

1:32:41

countless moving parts it's gonna it's

1:32:43

gonna suffer more

1:32:44

from this law of decimation over time

1:32:46

than something like bitcoin will which

1:32:48

is more optimized for survivability

1:32:51

and then finally got into the philosophy

1:32:54

philosophy of stoicism and

1:32:57

this is a philosophy which ties back

1:33:00

into everything we're talking about it's

1:33:01

consistent with thermodynamics

1:33:03

so again if we're just saying it in a

1:33:05

purely physics sense

1:33:08

we would say truth is an accurate

1:33:11

portrayal of reality

1:33:13

we know that everything in the universe

1:33:15

is energy

1:33:17

so therefore conservation of energy

1:33:19

which is the first law of thermodynamics

1:33:21

that is truthfulness right so

1:33:24

the systems the strategies the

1:33:26

techniques the businesses the

1:33:28

individuals

1:33:29

that optimize for energy conservation

1:33:33

that's just this doesn't just mean

1:33:36

defending all the energy you have you

1:33:38

can actually increase

1:33:40

energy efficiency through innovation

1:33:42

right so being exploratory

1:33:45

figuring out a new way of doing things

1:33:47

can actually add your energy efficiency

1:33:48

as well so there's this

1:33:50

ratcheting effect between defending what

1:33:53

you've gained and gaining new innovation

1:33:56

so this

1:34:04

stoicism is this thermodynamic

1:34:04

philosophy if you will which i think is

1:34:05

so cool that it's

1:34:07

it's a way many of the ancients accorded

1:34:11

their behavior

1:34:12

and it directly maps on to innovation

1:34:16

and general biological success

1:34:21

so the stoic again when we have this

1:34:24

law of decimations we have these systems

1:34:27

encountering

1:34:28

the chaos of nature there's a little bit

1:34:29

of breakdown over time uh

1:34:32

the stoic embraces that stoic knows

1:34:35

and willingly embraces what that your

1:34:38

death

1:34:39

right the the potential death of your

1:34:41

child

1:34:42

uh the potential loss of your business

1:34:43

or your fortune there are all these

1:34:45

practices when you get into

1:34:47

socialism like negative visualization um

1:34:50

where you may imagine for instance

1:34:53

the next time you hug your mother you

1:34:55

just imagine that that that may be the

1:34:56

last time you ever hug her

1:34:59

and through that mental practice you're

1:35:01

actually

1:35:02

training yourself to be more grateful

1:35:04

for something in the moment

1:35:05

and you're you're preparing yourself for

1:35:08

the inevitable loss that will come right

1:35:09

your mother will be gone one day

1:35:11

so and socialism is a deep rabbit hole

1:35:14

and unto itself i'll just leave it at

1:35:15

one example but

1:35:16

i thought that was really cool that

1:35:19

stoics embrace entropy

1:35:23

and choose to accept it and strive on

1:35:25

valiantly nonetheless and i think that's

1:35:27

the only

1:35:28

proper approach to life if you're going

1:35:29

to be successful

1:35:31

and then say they went into the paradox

1:35:34

of marcus aurelius which i've never

1:35:35

heard before i'm a big fan of marcus

1:35:38

um you know marcus great philosopher

1:35:42

great writer but in the end

1:35:45

sort of blew it on one decision and

1:35:48

say this one here we said that words

1:35:50

don't matter

1:35:51

you know actions do ultimately and even

1:35:56

one action can undo uh you know a

1:35:58

lifetime of good action

1:36:00

that this reminded me of televised

1:36:03

don't tell me what you think just show

1:36:04

me what's in your portfolio

1:36:06

it's more about the actions you take

1:36:09

with skin in the game

1:36:11

versus your cognitive beliefs um

1:36:14

and for me personally i think i tie this

1:36:16

back to religion actually is it

1:36:18

people always want to argue do you

1:36:19

believe in god do you not believe in god

1:36:22

i love jordan peterson's answer to those

1:36:23

words i act as if god exists

1:36:27

it doesn't god doesn't care about my

1:36:28

cognitive beliefs it's more about

1:36:31

my embodied action and my my moral

1:36:34

behavior

1:36:35

uh that really matters in the world so

1:36:37

it's a bit of an occam's

1:36:39

razor thing there um anyways

1:36:42

the the story of the marcus is you know

1:36:44

he was

1:36:46

he had the keys to the kingdom right

1:36:47

he's one of the most successful emperors

1:36:49

of all time he was the platonic ideal of

1:36:52

the philosopher king and he

1:36:55

on his final decision essentially and as

1:36:58

emperor of rome

1:37:00

decided to break duty break with

1:37:04

tradition break with the the stoic

1:37:07

protocol

1:37:07

if you will of appointing um the most

1:37:10

competent

1:37:12

man for the job for succession

1:37:15

and instead appointed commodus which was

1:37:18

his son

1:37:20

and there's something really deep here

1:37:22

there's this this age-old

1:37:24

struggle between i guess you would say

1:37:27

duty and love

1:37:29

um and i don't know this one left me

1:37:32

thinking so i i'm

1:37:34

i'd be excited to hear some of your guys

1:37:35

feedback on this but it's really

1:37:39

fascinating to me that we had this you

1:37:41

know guy held in such high regard and

1:37:43

then at the

1:37:44

you know the last yard line so to speak

1:37:47

he just fumbled the ball

1:37:49

um but you know i don't know if it was

1:37:52

i'll say i don't know if it was based on

1:37:54

love for his son or something else but

1:37:56

um it'd be really interesting right if

1:37:59

you made this decision out of love

1:38:01

so to speak yet it still proved to be

1:38:02

the wrong decision for civilization just

1:38:05

just a mind-bending thing but that was

1:38:07

super interesting

1:38:09

and the warning there is you know you

1:38:11

can live

1:38:12

a good life you can be a good leader

1:38:14

good writer

1:38:16

whatever but there's all you have to

1:38:18

always

1:38:20

remain humble and never become arrogant

1:38:23

no matter how much success you've had

1:38:24

because there's always that opportunity

1:38:27

to snatch defeat from the draws of

1:38:28

victory as sailor put it which i thought

1:38:30

was brilliant

1:38:31

and then finally uh we completed

1:38:35

the episode with a discussion about

1:38:36

anti-fragility and vitality

1:38:39

and i loved this point that

1:38:42

animals in the wild are all beautiful

1:38:45

because they're constantly being

1:38:47

conditioned against the chaos of nature

1:38:49

once they've you know went past the

1:38:52

tipping point of misfitness they're no

1:38:54

longer

1:38:56

serving their highest and best function

1:38:59

in the world

1:39:00

some something else eats them right

1:39:02

they're they're they're gone so and it's

1:39:04

nature

1:39:04

rolling forward and becoming better

1:39:08

through this process this dynamic

1:39:10

equilibrium between predator and prey

1:39:13

and it it's this this natural you know

1:39:16

darwinian natural selection that's

1:39:17

constantly promulgating excellence and

1:39:20

beauty

1:39:21

uh in the world and it's just it's a

1:39:23

it's great to behold you know if you've

1:39:25

ever watched a nature documentary

1:39:27

it's one of the most awe-inspiring

1:39:30

things i think we can watch so

1:39:32

um another way to think about this is

1:39:34

just nature constantly

1:39:36

sharpening her own strategies against

1:39:39

herself

1:39:40

so the the the strategies of animals the

1:39:42

survival strategies are constantly being

1:39:44

tested against the environment

1:39:46

and those those that succeed uh

1:39:49

roll forward and those that do not are

1:39:51

weeded out and so you're left with kind

1:39:53

of just

1:39:53

by definition the most fit uh

1:39:56

creature for for its its environment

1:40:00

and when we try and disturb that dynamic

1:40:03

equilibrium

1:40:06

um it we're just exacerbating

1:40:09

that correction so we're instead of

1:40:10

having these little corrections along

1:40:12

the way

1:40:12

we're giving uh time for the strategy

1:40:16

and the environment to diverge

1:40:18

significantly to where

1:40:20

an ultimate you know cataclysmic uh

1:40:23

return is necessary

1:40:25

uh what you know and that's what nature

1:40:27

does it always selects

1:40:28

and it always restores balance so

1:40:32

all of that tying back into again what i

1:40:36

think

1:40:37

central banking is just a failure of an

1:40:39

institution because it's tried to over

1:40:41

engineer this dynamic equilibrium of

1:40:43

nature

1:40:44

right we have price instability and

1:40:46

unemployment

1:40:47

as a natural product of the business

1:40:48

cycle um

1:40:51

it's trying to paper over that uh it's

1:40:54

trying to pretend

1:40:55

or even not even pretend it's trying to

1:41:02

eliminate this dynamic equilibrium and

1:41:02

create something that's predictable

1:41:04

right it's trying to subdue the entropy

1:41:06

of nature if you will

1:41:07

which could be a good intention but

1:41:10

clearly has a poor result

1:41:13

which leads to suppressed interest rates

1:41:16

which is like trying to reverse the flow

1:41:17

of time

1:41:19

so it's all of this this effort going

1:41:23

countervailing to nature that always

1:41:26

fails

1:41:27

that's the core point here um and

1:41:31

you know it turns nature into a zoo

1:41:33

right we said every animal is beautiful

1:41:35

but if you really want to see some

1:41:36

some not beautiful animals you can

1:41:37

actually go to a zoo they're sad

1:41:40

right they're in a cage they're not

1:41:42

fulfilling the function for which they

1:41:43

were evolved

1:41:46

and i think central banking sort of

1:41:48

turns society into a zoo

1:41:51

it softens us in this process of trying

1:41:55

to protect us

1:41:56

quote unquote from price instability and

1:41:59

unemployment

1:41:59

is actually reducing our skin in the

1:42:03

softening us externalizing entropy onto

1:42:06

society

1:42:06

so um yeah

1:42:09

i you know it's another awesome episode

1:42:13

hope you guys enjoyed this uh sailor and

1:42:15

i are going to do at least

1:42:17

one more episode so maybe more after

1:42:20

that we're going to see how it goes

1:42:22

um but i hope you enjoyed this one as

1:42:23

much as i did and i'll see you again

1:42:25

here soon

1:42:26

thanks

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