Economics, Inflation, Interest Rates, & Natural Competition | The Saylor Series | Episode 9 (WiM009)
WiM Media · 2021-01-16 · 1h 42m · View on YouTube →
they're dominating because they're able
to
deliver force faster
harder stronger smarter
so if we ask the question what is money
money is the highest form of energy that
human beings can channel
bitcoin is channeling human
ingenuity into making it
better and and every commodity
is channeling human energy into making
it
worse the lowbrow or the the
the historic colloquial term is total
right hold on for dear life or just
total or save whatever
and the highbrow term would be adopt as
a treasury reserve essay
[Music]
hey guys so as you learned uh by
watching the what is money show
bitcoin is the single most important
asset you can own in the world today
and so this begs the question which i'm
often asked how does one build
their bitcoin position and the strategy
really is simple
i suggest first you decide on an initial
portfolio percentage allocation
and target portfolio percentage
allocation go ahead and establish the
initial position with a one-time buy
and then start dollar cost averaging
towards your target portfolio
percentage and you can also complement
this by buying bitcoin price dips to
further increase that position and
reduce your cost basis
and finally i suggest to everyone to
take
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custody because again bitcoin left on
exchange is not bitcoin it's a bitcoin
iou
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all right thanks
all right guys welcome back to episode
nine
of the sailor series uh today
is another deep episode we're actually
getting towards the end of the line here
and uh covering some of the last bit of
ground in the macroeconomic domain
and tying it back into actually some
philosophy towards the end which i
thought was really interesting
so today we're going to talk a bit about
how bitcoin
is an elemental innovation uh time is
back to episode one
actually uh where we just discuss stone
age technologies
including fire water and missiles so
um we're actually making the case that
bitcoin is an elemental invention akin
to one of these stone age technologies
which as a reminder if you haven't seen
the prior episodes
highly recommend you go and check those
out as they build a long
and strong intellectual edifice to get
us to this point
uh secondly we're going to talk about
fiat currency how it's a contaminated
form of money uh that actually leads to
socio-economic decay
and we're going to go into interest
rates uh an area that's commonly
misunderstood by even people uh
typically considered financially
sophisticated
then we're going to talk a bit about
central bank price manipulation how that
influences markets
we're also going to look at market
competition and
the law of decimation how that plays out
in nature
and throughout history then we're going
to get into the philosophical domain
uh we're going to touch on a bit of
stoicism
and how sailor has used this in his own
life
and how he sees its importance in
markets in general
and then finally uh we'll leave off
with a bit of discussion on
anti-fragility and
the vitality of life so excited for this
one
uh another crazy episode with the the
incredibly brilliant
michael saylor so with that let's dive
in sort of the purpose of humanity has
been to
channel energy through our intellect
right that's how we've
developed everything essentially
and i'm reminded of a quote by alfred
north whitehead
that i'll paraphrase it he said that
it's common
wisdom for people to say you should
think before you act
but that in fact civilization advances
by us being able to execute more
important operations
without having to think about them all
right so we're actually
when we can embed these things uh these
certain important actions in a protocol
that we don't need to think about it as
much it frees us up to do other things
right that's kind of the layers
upon which we build civilization and
it just seems like this digital age
we're going into
is something radically new it seems to
be
as profound as the renaissance or as
profound as the enlightenment do you see
it that way are we
are we co-evolving with the tools that
we're creating
in like the next 500 years are gonna be
something so fundamentally different
than what history has been that it'll be
hard to recognize it in a few hundred
years
i i do think that um
the creation of bitcoin and the creation
of the
of the first effective crypto network
isn't is an elemental force
a is a true invention akin to the
discovery of fire
or the discovery of atomic energy or the
discovery of
of we can make a list of a lot of
uh fundamental things maybe one
interesting thing is just
the science of uh or the science of
sterilization
right germs medicine modern medicine and
the awareness of the importance of uh
sterilizing instruments and and
the way that disease spreads right
immunology
once we figured that out we were able to
go from living 50 years of living 70
years because
we realized that we were just
every time we entered into a
medical procedure including the birth of
a child
we were moving into an unsterile
environment that was
life threatening in fact life uh
soul soul sucking right like uh
life stealing right the death rate um
the death rate uh from childbirth was
huge right
the average life expectancy was short
and we needed that breakthrough to
realize that we were swimming in germs
and the very simple solution
is wash your hands sterilize or
instruments
and you put that together with
antibiotics and the human life expects
to jump by 50
so what if we're actually doing
economics with dirty money
and so we've been dealing we've been
using
monetary energy which is bleeding
right it's it's the same way as
operating with
with uh non-sterile instruments
and the patient keeps dying and we don't
know why
and um the significance of bitcoin
is we're going from from defective money
which is somewhere between toxic it may
just be
uh bleeding like ineffective bleeding
two three four percent a year
or it's toxic when it gets to minus 10
or minus 15
real yield so using toxic money
how is that different than using toxic
instruments
when i commit surgery on you like
how is it different than feeding you
toxic food
i think i think we're breaking through
this new world we sterilize our
instruments we encrypt our money
we're moving uh we're moving toward a
science of non-toxic
economic energy madam curie
died of radiation poisoning and she died
of cancer from the radiation
they didn't realize that radiation
killed you that it
caused cancer there's a lot of basics
in and life that we don't understand a
bit a big breakthrough in
and uh health is when we realized that
sugar was toxic
my mother didn't know sugar was toxic
right i mean uh
conventional wisdom and governmental
advice would you need your four favorite
food groups and pursue a low-fat diet
but starch and sugar was fine
and of course now we know that too much
starch and too much sugar
makes you insulin resistant makes your
type 2 diabetic gives you cancer
my mother became diabetic became
overweight got cancer
we thought it was just unfortunate
doctor said we don't know why these
things happen
it's just unfortunate you know if i
could go back in time
i'd be like i know exactly why it
happens i know exactly how to solve it
now
right don't eat sugar don't eat starch
stop eating fast sometimes you know i
never
i never eat before like one two one in
the afternoon i only eat an eight hour
window
and i'll go two or three days and i
won't eat i mean i adopt fasting
and i won't drink anything with sugar in
it
right you want to live a long time don't
dose yourself with sugar it's toxic
the instruments are toxic the germs are
toxic we killed george washington
because we bled him to death
toxic the money's toxic that's
fundamentally the issue
the money is toxic that i mean
that's the fundamental issue with with
inflation and we
if we segue into the discussion of
inflation
it's everybody keeps thinking there is
no inflation because everybody focuses
upon a market basket consumer goods
and if you look in the u.s and you look
in europe they leave food
and energy out of the basket of consumer
goods and they say
we left out the highly volatile food and
energy from the index
well highly volatile means it went up
and the number would change
right quality is another word for signal
we left out everything that actually
changes
in price from our price index
right okay people it literally is like a
jedi mind trick
and it's like a triple mind trick it's
like
we have a consumer price index and we've
left the prices that vary out of the
index oh check
we have a consumer price index well
first of all
it's not a scalar it's a vector it's an
n-dimensional vector dynamically
changing in time you've just created a
skill
we've created a market basket of things
that we think you want
yes your basket is what i want
the market basket of things that you
want does not include assets
no i would never want to buy an asset
only rich people buy assets
poor people do not buy assets how do
poor people get rich
you have to buy assets to go from being
poor to being rich i didn't
i didn't go from being poor to being
wealthy
by not buying assets or not trading
assets you create them or you buy them
so the entire field of inflation
is defective and the irony is that 99
of the economists that talk about it
they they already have accepted the
notion that a market basket of consumer
products and services is acceptable and
it's acceptable to throw out
energy and food and i never seen an
economist
say why don't we actually define the
things
that are working a 22 year old is going
to want to buy by the time they're 32
and here's one thing early retirement
right i want to retire i want to buy
early retirement by the time i'm 32. how
do i do that
i need to buy a bond that pays me 75 000
a year and interest risk free
and i need for the 75 000 a year
to pay my living expenses
and if the interest rate was seven
percent then i need a million dollars
for that
but the interest rate goes to point
seven percent i need ten million dollars
so from 2010 to 2020
the interest rate went down to 60 basis
points on a 10-year
government bond which meant that the
bond went from a million dollars
to 10 million dollars which meant that
the 22 year old
suffering from 22 inflation on early
retirement
but because that's not in a basket
because that's not something that you
would ever want to give them
there's no inflation
you can actually track it and you can
see that the inflation rate changes
across a thousand different
if you just started with a simple
principle inflation is a basket of
products services or assets
if you just did that that's kind of the
equivalent of saying oh it's possible
the sun
revolves around the earth but it's
possible the earth revolves around the
sun let's find out which
has anybody ever asked the question
whether or not the basket should include
assets or
products or services right no one's even
questioning the most basic premise and
it goes it goes to this
the the most you know it's pernicious
rule of propaganda and it's attributed
to joseph goebbels and the nazi regime
he said
and it's also attributed to old movie so
maybe it's apocryphal
but he said all of our focus groups
show us and tell us we can't tell people
what to think
but we can tell them what to think about
i cannot change your mind once you've
made it up and if you have an opinion
but i can get you to focus upon
something so if i just keep saying
inflation cpi and it didn't go
up and this is what it is when's the
last time 100 million people said what
we really wanted to buy
was early retirement
well i didn't even know that was a
product i could buy
because i couldn't conceive of it well
it is a product you can buy
it's a government 30-year bond that
yields six percent
interest in a non-inflationary
environment that's a risk-free
retirement you can buy that
right now the problem is at 140 basis
points
that would cost you you know 30 million
dollars
for 60 grand a year
how do i make that at 75 grand a year
salary
saving 15 grand if i'm making 500
000 a year and i save a hundred thousand
you know i pay 200 000 in tax i make
three hundred grand i save a hundred
thousand
if i save a hundred thousand for twenty
years i've got two million dollars
and investing that in the government
bond
at sixty basis points or a hundred basis
points
i've got nothing wow
so so the problem starts with
the fact that inflation is misdefined
the right way to think about it
is every single product service or asset
has an inflation coefficient and the
inflationary coefficient
right is that's the rate at which the
price will change as i
pump my money into the money system
and so the coefficients vary and they're
a function
of the scarcity of the asset
and the demand for the asset the
information
content of the asset uh
the material cost or the variable cost
of the asset and then the modularity
of the asset if i can stamp out the
asset a million times out of a factory
it's going to be less inflationary
because
because the fixed cost is higher and the
variable cost is lower
cell phones mobile phones will not be
inflationary because everything's in the
fab
software will not be inflationary
because there's no variable cause
things you know streaming music on
amazon music or apple music will not be
inflationary
because i can stream it a billion times
a picasso will be inflationary because
there's only
you know 20 50 100. right
that's you know five acres of beachfront
property
in the middle of miami beach will be
inflationary to the extent
people want miami beach five acres in
ohio will not be inflationary because
there's a lot of land in the world the
only land people want
is in the middle of new york the middle
of london the hamptons
miami beach the middle of la the middle
of san francisco the middle of tokyo
you fly across this country and look
down there's enough land
to park 10 billion people on five acres
each right now it's just got to be
in demand and scarce may i ask you a
question about this
so the coefficient itself
in my mind would be a product of the
scarcity of the good or service relative
to the scarcity of
the money it's denominated in right such
that
if the money supply is outpacing the
production of the good or service
that good or service will inflate in
price right
and then so my so to your point it's not
a single variable it's not cpi as
inflation
everything has its own inflation rate
and then my second
so our second part of that question
would be why
is the narrative surrounding inflation
so distorted do you think it's
intentional
by governments that are clearly heavily
indebted
um because i i don't see any equitable
benefit to inflation whatsoever it's
purely a mechanism
for reallocating wealth and i don't
understand why the narrative's so
distorted
200 years ago people thought they had to
bleed george washington's death to save
his life
and everybody agreed on it
people you know people the whole point
of paradigm shifts right
everybody agreed that the sun revolved
around the earth everybody agreed the
world was flat
everybody agreed that humans would never
fly
i mean everybody agrees on stuff until
they realize that they're just utterly
and totally and horrifically wrong
so in this particular case
i blow a bunch of of liquidity into the
system
there's let's say there's a there's 50
trillion dollars worth of
energy like pick a number any number and
i blow
10 trillion dollars worth of money in
the system and so
there's still 50 trillion worth of
energy but now the money is
diluted by 20 right so
if i have a product and i can measure
the pure energy
content of the product
then the then if it's 100 pure energy
the price has got to go up by 20 if i
expand the money
supply by 20 assuming it's completely
liquid and in demand
what's an example of that like maybe um
a bond
like a pure financial instrument
something that is a rib eye
something that is tangible and you
cannot produce it with any less energy
right this is you know this is why proof
of work is bitcoin is torture
if it takes me a tangible amount of
energy to produce that thing
then its inflation coefficient is going
to be
like a hundred percent and on the other
hand
the cost to produce a streaming youtube
video
you know is going to be the the energy
content is one percent of the value
added or the value in use
and 99 of the value in use is um
is information but not and and
non-scarce information so it's got a
variable cost of
one percent an iphone's got a variable
cost of 30
35 40 right everything's got a different
a different variable cost gold's got a
much higher variable cost right
right because because it's it's holding
its energy
so if when you look at all these things
you'll be able to calculate different
inflation coefficients
and therefore different inflation rates
across an array of
thousands of things it'll be different
inflation rates in new york city
manhattan
versus you know farmland in kansas
it'll be different right so you can't
really you can't say oh this asset class
there'll be different inflation rates on
different stocks
right because it'll be a function of the
you know you notice um
if the cash flows are likely to continue
from the stock
right subject to or less affected by
inflation then it's
it's uh it's going to go up so
i i think that the pernicious mistake
everybody makes
is they um
they don't really think about in energy
density and information density
of their products services and assets
they're not applying conservation of
energy
if the law of conservation of energy
applies that when i increase the money
supply
by 20 and if the energy is constant
right then all of them all the numbers
have to change and if they didn't change
on um on the deflationary products they
must have changed more
on something else so you can't very well
be printing 10
more money and not have the inflation
it's just we're choosing
to pick just one percent of
the things that are inflated the
deflationary assets we put them in a
bucket
and it's almost too easy if i get to
throw out all
assets all real estate all stocks
all bonds and then i get to throw out
energy and then i get to throw away
food right well what is how could you
possibly generate inflation
right because you could print 100
gazillion trillion billion dollars and
the cost of free streaming
twitter and youtube is not going up
right
yeah you're throwing out everything that
changes so it's self-defeating
so so bottom line is inflation is um
there's no such thing as a free lunch
but in fl the inflation that's being
reported
is an irrelevant metric i call it it's a
metaphysical metric
that's that's been uh artificially
defined
in order to provide some comfort and
it's working
the great majority of people not only do
they not think there's not
they don't think there's inflation you
literally have
politicians lamenting that they can't
create inflation
and how important it is to create
inflation even as
they're inflating every scarce asset
on earth to the point where no one can
afford
look robert like i'm a rich man like i'm
i'm a very wealthy man i can't afford to
buy a house in the hamptons
like like i'll go you know like i'll go
look at these things and i'm like
who's paying 47 million dollars or like
like they're selling houses for 25
million dollars on two acres i'm like
are you guys out of your minds like
like how you know or like you go to new
york city and someone's paying
25 million dollars for a 5 000 square
foot
apartment wow and you know
25 000 a square foot
i mean at the end of the day it's
obscene
and what you what you can see is
we're running 10 to 20 percent inflation
for the past
decade we're just running it
on all of the scarce luxury
assets that have high information that
have high energy value
that i mean what's the definition of
scarce right maybe the definition of
scarce is it has high energy energy
value because
if i could stamp out a billion trillion
of them for the same unit of energy
i must be diluting the energy down right
distinct things that are hard to produce
right so gold and bitcoin they're all
inflating and i would say that it's
it is a lie right i don't i'm not sure
necessarily about
the intentionality you could argue about
that but it's definitely a lie
this is that cpi is inflation and it
seems like it's being used to cover up
this widespread system of theft that is
monetary inflation i'm not even sure
they realize
that it is theft or that they're doing
it i i'm half convinced that 80
of the people in government don't even
realize
that the inflation metric is a wrong
metric
and irrelevant i
it's like i'm burning myself to death
and i'm calculating the temperature on
the counter six feet away
and i guess it's like they're just not
feeling the pain
and that you know and and because of
that it takes us to the issue of
interest right
and if you think inflation is not coming
so you keep printing money
and you keep driving the interest rate
down the problem we have
is really just a warren currency a war
on time
we re rendered the money toxic if you
hold the money
once you understand that the the real
inflation rate is 10 to 15
because that's how assets are clocking
then you realize that any currency
you're holding is is uh draining energy
from your life at ten percent a year
it's almost like i put in a battery that
drains two percent a month or
one percent a month i i can't store
energy you know you know uh
another metaphor for what happens in the
human body when you can't store energy
like robert if i took you and i dropped
you
in the middle of the arctic circle and
it was 20 below
your body would start losing energy at a
rapid rate
you'd freeze to death it's literally
like i come into your office and i crank
the temperature down
20 degrees and i'm freezing
to death because i'm pulling the energy
off your skin
and so what do you do insulate
cover up right how to
but what if you can't if you're a
wealthy person you put on a fur coat
right or maybe you're smart enough to
realize
like what do wealthy people do you drop
them in the arctic and they get on their
jet and they fly to the caribbean
where it's warm right because they can't
and what do you do if you're poor
i dropped in the arctic or or even worse
right i go to your hometown and i just
turn the temperature down to 20
below and you can't leave
but but you know it's like i slowly
freeze you to death
i don't do it fast it's like you don't
even realize it's happening
if it happened at a gradual enough rate
it's like i know i'm working hard i'm
just not getting ahead
i'm working i'm not getting ahead
because every time i put money in the
bank
right the cost the price of everything
keeps going up
the price of a house in miami beach it
was a million dollars on the street
where i live and then it's 2 million and
that's 3 million there's 4 million then
it's five million it's eight million
that's 10 million
i'm not talking about every decade i'm
talking about every year i'm talking
about
2000 to 2010
you know during that administration we
were printing money so
fast that we had this housing bloom and
everybody that owned houses
were happy they're refinancing their
houses but you're looking you're like
how is it possible people
bought this house in 1998 for a million
dollars and i'm being asked to pay 10
million
for the same house
it's like if you happen to be working
for cash
that's what pop would say you can't work
for
if you're working for cash and paying
taxes and then you're putting
cash in the bank then you're suffering
from
from inflation and shadow tax
like your life energy is being robbed
from you and so that takes us to this
this issue of real yield right um
if the actual nominal yield is one and a
half percent on a 30-year t-bill
or zero percent on short-term money and
if the
asset inflation rate blended across all
stock
all liquid assets stocks and bonds and
the like
it's probably 15 right now
maybe 12 13 14 15 but let's just say
it's only 10
just to be nice well then you're looking
at
a real yield of minus 10 you've never
seen that number printed
in any kind of public media no i mean no
one would dare
say we have a negative real yield of 10
percent it would create a panic
but if you if you did think negative
real yield of 10
what happens in action cycle through and
you say well if my cash flows of the
stock aren't going up by more than 10
percent that's deluded
the only equity you can you can buy
where you're going to make out on
is where the company is able to grow its
cash flows
more than 10 a year right and then
you've got to buy it in a decent price
so if your cash flows are growing 20 or
30 a year maybe it's a good deal that's
why people like
you know tech like facebook or google
because they did
on amazon they did for a while i don't
know if they will going forward
it's a lot harder to over the next 36
months it seems much less likely that
you'll see
20 cash flow growth will you see 10
i don't what percentage of the s p 500
will grow cash flows more than 10
this year any
5 10 like probably not more than 10
right right we could figure it out but
if you're not doing that then you're
dilutive of course that means any any
fixed bonds that aren't generating 10
they're they're long-term dilutive yeah
so where does that leave bitcoin right
well bitcoin's got a positive real yield
because
you don't you're not getting hit with
that 10 percent
currency yeah debasement
and so let me ask you so this
just to jump back a little bit to
bitcoin as a unit of account
or a financial frame of reference yeah
do you suggest here that it is actually
useful
to look and i guess you could do this
with bitcoin or gold but to look at
these historic
price charts denominated in bitcoin or
gold
to strip out a lot of this central bank
induced market manipulation
via inflation i think that that'll be a
lot more useful in the next 10 years
with bitcoin the first 10 years of
bitcoin was it was so
developmental going from zero you have
this asymptotic
zero number and so if i think that
if you look over the next 10 years i
think that'll that'll become a
valuable thing people have done it in
gold and i think that's probably
uh it's a more stable
application because gold was a bit more
stable through this time period
but again it's manipulated to a certain
extent and it's like got its own problem
so we talked this would help
this would help eliminate some confusion
i think for people that
think the s p is just going up forever
if you actually denominate it in gold
the chart doesn't look that great right
it had a boom in 2001 but it's not been
good ever since
if you if you simply divide it by the
monetary supply
like if the monetary support going up by
seven percent and the s p is going up by
eight percent
then the overall market's flat and that
makes sense because
why do people think that uh
stocks should always go up eight percent
i i'm in business robert
it's it's hideously competitive
like the do you think that we don't have
a competitive market for everything in
this country
it's obscenely competitive
and so what you've got you look at the
nasdaq is you have like five companies
apple amazon facebook google
right microsoft
right those five and aren't they
responsible for like 80 percent
of the gain everybody else is competing
and it's competitive market and what
does that mean it means it's hard
to grow 20 a year because whenever you
do anything someone else is copying you
and they're pushing on you so unless you
get a dominant digital network with a
near monopoly
with these massive exploding economies
of scale on a zero variable cost low
variable cost
it's it's very very difficult to perform
and most of the s p
isn't right to the extent that the s p
isn't apple amazon facebook google
microsoft
they're just a bunch of companies
competing with each other so you would
think that they would grow
at the uh at the productivity growth
rate of the overall economy
but of course which what two percent
three percent why shouldn't they
if you had hard money and by the way
coming back to that theory of uh
bitcoin network value bitcoin network
value goes through the roof
skyrockets in the early days when
there's massive adoption and massive
technology
explosion but in the in the later stages
of the s
curve when it's fully diffused and when
it's mature
it just grows with the gdp it grows with
those with productivity of the people in
the network
if they grow two percent a year it grows
two percent a year
so any mature equity market you would
expect
equity indexes equity prices to grow
with the gdp if they're growing faster
it's the monetary expansion right expand
the monetary supply seven percent
expand the gdp one percent s p should go
up
eight percent it's going to be
disproportionate
the big tech the leading edge innovative
tech
is going to be going double triple
quadruple that
and then the trailing edge laggards are
going to be
tanking and then everyone that's working
their asses off as hard as they can is
going to be barely
keeping up right because you have to do
a hundred thousand things right
just to stay in business in a real
darwinian and capitalist economy
it's like being flat means defeating
99 of the rest of the market being flat
to be up you have to you know amazon's
up because they beat
15 000 companies you know
the next two are just slightly okay
and there's some that are flat and
everybody else gets destroyed because of
the natural effect there this reminds me
of the the red queen
from i think alice in wonderland or said
in my kingdom
everyone has to run as fast as they can
just to stand still
right
[Music]
i'll give you i'll give you another
example
there are 3 500 publicly traded
companies
9.99 of humanity
right that makes you this number one out
of 10 000 people
if you were smarter than 99.99 of
humanity
there are 750 000 people on the planet
smarter than you
and 99 of them one
want what you have if you have a billion
dollars
if you if you have a publicly traded
company 99
of the people that that are smarter than
10
000 other people
don't have what you have and they can
probably raise a billion dollars
and chase you right they're harder
they're smarter they're faster they're
stronger
than you are right i'm sitting at a
company as
one of 3500 and the world is full of
people
that are smarter than me that can raise
a billion dollars
that want what we have want what i have
that's darwinian competition
like there's the view from one side of
the table which is
oh yeah well you made it you're
successful
there's the view on the other side of
there's a guy that's going to work 80
hours a week that's going to be
surrounded with 100 other people they're
going to work 70 hours a week they're
going to raise
infinite money that are going to target
you and do everything they can
to take your market from you
now that that's a very humbling
observation that's why
you can't rest on your laurels there's
something
beautiful right and that terrifying
concept that's what drives humanity
forward
keeps you honest right it is the core of
stoicism
and it it reminds you
your best chance is to focus all
of your energy all of your assets
on just this one thing that you're going
to be
the best in the world at and you better
stay humble
if i take my own business i came public
in 1998
there's a 99 mortality rate
99 out of the 100
companies i competed with are gone but
my peers i'm the only person
probably i'm probably i'm talking about
100 publicly traded companies
there's probably 500 ceos that launched
a company with
20 30 50 100 million dollars of capital
and they're all gone that's
what the open market the free market
will do
and it is what it is i mean that's
that's why the human race
is what they are right there's always
someone
and when they attack if you're
distracted
if you're arrogant if you're if you're
fat dumb happy comfortable they're going
to eat you
and if you're if you're half focused or
defocused they're going to take your arm
off
and if you completely focus
you can react if there's something
they're doing that's good
you channel it you inherit it you evolve
you you live and you grow stronger and
um
and otherwise you shrink and they
squeeze you out of the entire market
there's there's something i observe
and again it's it's very stoic it's
everybody everybody thinks
when you're when you're young you want
to acquire as much as you can acquire
so young men are acquisitive young young
business people are inquisitive
can you acquire the thing
that's generally the easiest hurdle to
jump the next question is can you
maintain
the thing can you stay competitive
that's ten times harder
and then the biggest hurdle is are you
going to be able to commercialize the
thing
or profit from it can you
buy something or build something and
continuously improve it
forever so that you're competitive and
then do it in a manner that is cheaper
such that you can charge more for it
than it costs you to do that thing
that's obscenely hard so typically
everybody thinks that they can acquire
something then they
when they realize the maintenance
requirements you know they fail
and then very few people ever get to the
point where they can commercialize
something
you can well you can apply to a boat
everybody wants to buy a boat
and then they're like oh my god this is
really expensive to maintain a boat and
i can't afford to maintain the boat
but if they buy the boat they got to
spend 10 a year
to maintain it and then at some point
the question is can you enjoy the boat
like oh i'm spending all this money on
the boat but i never have time to go out
and use the boat this is just crazy
there's a way
around my neck i gotta rid this it's an
example of
of um you know being too
ambitious in your inquisitiveness
and and it illustrates the law of
decimation
and the law of decimation is in ancient
roman republic if the legion screwed up
they killed one out of every 10 10 men
in the legion actually they made the
nine
kill the tenth in order to remind them
that they should stay disciplined at
random right
yeah random randomly get randomly kept
they didn't kill them all because
there'd be no legion left so
so but one out of 10 is going to die if
you break ranks and
and retreat so is their way is their
ultimate punishment law of decimation
but but you can apply to everything in
life robert but it goes like this
the universe tends toward entropy and
disorder
if something will go wrong it does go
wrong that's murphy's law
the law of decimation is
one tenth of all the moving parts that
anything
will break in any given year if you have
10 employees
one will quit or become unhappy if you
have 10 moving parts
one will break if you have 10 plans
one will blow up in your face if you
have 10 features
one of them will stop working if you
have a hundred
ten of them will stop working if you
spend a hundred million dollars on
something you have spent ten million
dollars to maintain it
you're gonna have to divert ten percent
of the cost of anything
to maintain something i talked about
steel will last forever
quote if you maintain it most people
don't maintain it
it costs a lot of money to paint a steel
ship most people
they budget for the acquisition and they
underestimate the maintenance
because they don't have the humility or
the life experience
this is by the way the problem we're
building rube goldberg devices into
crypto networks
that's the problem with all the
complexity with ethereum and all the
complexity with some of these things
it sounds good on paper but
when you put 187 moving parts into
something and when one of them breaks
and the entire thing crashes
and burns and you die
it wasn't worth it you know when you're
young
you overestimate the value of
functionality
and acquisition and you underestimate
how how expensive is going to be
maintain things and then you really
underestimate this last issue
can you enjoy it can i
this is the basic rule of life can i buy
the thing can i maintain the thing can i
enjoy the thing
right this men are always reaching
beyond their fingertips
sometimes women do like they want too
much
they're empire builders this is why
napoleon should not have gone to moscow
this is why hitler might have gone to
moscow this is why you don't fight a war
on two fronts
this is and this is the essence of
stoicism but stoicism is really a
philosophy
that that is very consistent with
thermodynamics
and entropy and complexity theory
and
if you've ever run anything complicated
or built anything complicated
or or been responsible for anything
complicated
you know stuff breaks
is this do you think this
we'll call it a law of nature that 10 of
the components in a complex system break
down
and require maintenance yearly annually
is this
is this connected to the religious
tithing
you think where you're actually supposed
to feed the flame right with 10
of your profit to maintain the
institution
i think i think it's interesting the
extent to which you see the 10
number pop up on an annual basis
10 is the maintenance obligation on a
boat 10
is is the tiding obligation for
thousands of years
10 is a is a reasonable estimate
you know for a house with 187 light
bulbs
18 of them will burn out right it just
pops up
over and over again and uh
my only real explanation is just
friction
randomness chaos
life corrosion
weather right termites
bugs bacteria
the same would be true with your body
right if you're talking about
maintaining yourself
you got to actually allocate time and
energy to maintain yourself a lot of
times people
under invest in their own health
and then when they and when they under
invest in those things they blame it on
genetics so they blame it on
some unfortunate occurrence we don't
know why this happened it's very
unfortunate
these things just happen sometimes
i'll i'll end with one
one thought on stoicism and nicholas
talab would appreciate this one too it's
like
the words don't matter the action
matters
okay words are just words and
that applies to stoics you and me
and marcus aurelius i think one of the
great paradoxes of history
is marcus aurelius was the last emperor
in
in the line of the antonines during the
golden age of rome and there's
trajan and there's hadrian as marcus
antoninus
et cetera and for about 100 years
that was the pox romana and each of
those emperors
was elected based on virtue as an adult
and and he adopted his heir and they
just typically adopted a 40 year old
emperor who had had a uh a career in the
military of virtue and he was tough
and and responsible and grounded in
reality and and
he and uh you know if you're a general
in the army campaigning
and you get drunk and screw around
right your soldiers put a knife at you
you're not gonna make it
in order to keep the respect and stay
alive and in wartime
around a bunch of guys with weapons
you better be a good leader and they
better respect you because you're
leading them to their death
if they don't respect it so if you
actually rose through that
meritocracy you know maybe you had a
chance
so marcus aurelius writes the
meditations and it gets the
quintessential text
on stoicism and he says you know just
because you can't do a thing doesn't
mean you should do a thing
he said soon you will have forgotten all
and all will have forgotten you
and you should know your place in the
universe and you should submit yourself
and and do the right thing for everyone
else
and that's all good but at
the end of the day the single most
important decision marcus aurelia has
made in his entire career
and his life was the decision on an
heir and when it came time to make that
decision he failed
miserably and he appointed his son
commodus
to be the emperor and communist was a
minor and of weak
moral and intellectual constitution and
in no way shape or form qualified to be
emperor of all the known worlds
and and by by so doing that marcus
aurelius plunged the roman empire into
chaos and turmoil for hundreds of years
resulting in the deaths of millions if
not
tens or hundreds of millions of people
awful awful
and there's your philosopher king
he's remembered today as having written
a good book and vid a great start
but if you look at his actions the
actual action he took
was the least stoic most
foolish most painful
action of any of his foreign bears and
it just
makes the blood curdle that's i've
i've been anxiously waiting to talk
about this actually because i'm
a huge fan of marcus aurelius i that
particular episode is documented
somewhat well in the movie gladiator for
people who want to go out and watch it
um but he is also known to have been one
of the greatest
emperors of all time right up until that
point where he made that fateful
decision he was
he was great until the the succession
yeah he had all of the power of the
western world
in his hands he had keys right the
crypto keys to all the wealth and power
in the roman empire
in the gladiator that imply he was
murdered by his son
right but in the history books they
they're pretty important
handed that those keys to commodus
and communist was a disaster and he was
that plot platonic ideal
of the philosopher king right one of the
few maybe
possibly arguably the only successful
philosopher king
throughout history and i think one of
his other quotes that i really liked is
that
no man can lose any other life
than he now lives nor can he live any
other life than he now loses
and um stoicism has been big in my life
personally and i think it's necessary
for everything we've talked about today
for this eternal contention we have with
reality if you don't adopt a stoic
philosophy
how do you keep yourself together right
it's just
i think stoicism is critical and i think
he was a good writer
and i and i i would even probably admit
he was a good emperor
until that final decision until he blew
up which i
which i just lay out as a paradox and
maybe it's um
maybe it's a warning and the warning is
you could live a great life
and you could be a great writer and you
could be a great thinker
but at any given point it's always that
last decision
it's that you know you still have time
to snatch defeat from the jaws of
victory
right did he choose love over his
principles
is that what it was love for his son
over the principles of succession
presumably yeah interesting yeah
you can read it read up on it and come
to your own conclusion
it's just it's a short chapter
i think i i am at the last our last
point just on vitality anti-fragility
could be
a synonym for anti-fragility could be
um genetic vitality right
darwinian vitality if i'm involving
uh in response to threats as a life
force
then i'm anti-fragile and this is
darwin's
darwin's famous quote it's not the
strongest fastest or smartest species
that survives
but the one that's most adaptive to
change right
which makes it makes it anti-fragile
which makes it over time the strongest
right but just not in the near term
yeah there's a there's a certain
terrifying beauty
in nature um there are no ugly animals
you look at a bird that it's beautiful
you look at a you look at a lion in the
wild it's beautiful
no one's got a mangy coat there's no
unhealthy anything
and most people and that's our ideal of
beauty right
we think nature is beautiful all the
trees are beautiful the plants are
beautiful
the birds are beautiful they chirp
they're beautiful sounds the flowers are
what they don't really think about is
what's going on behind the scenes
because they've got this
this simple zoo backyard view of nature
i mean the truth is everything's at its
finest when
tomorrow is uncertain when the
when when the life of the creature
is uncertain um
i've actually got these beautiful banyan
vine trees in my back
of my house in florida one day on a
beautiful sunny day i walked by
and i and i stood and stared the tree
and i saw a bunch of ants running up and
down
and when i traced the ants i saw there
were thousands of ants and i saw there
was a centipede
some kind of millipede about a hundred
times bigger than a normal
and those ants had decided they were
going to eat that
they were actually going to haul that
millipede back to their
queen as dinner and they
attacked it relentlessly relentlessly
and i watched
hundreds and hundreds and then thousands
and thousands of ants going against this
one
one melbourne and it's fighting for its
life and i swear i watched it for 45
minutes
like a war non-stop on a beautiful sunny
day
if you looked around you would have saw
grass and blue sky
and pretty water and birds chirping but
there was a knock down
drag out war to devour this millipede
and it's fighting for its life and i
watched it crawl up the tree and the
ants dragged it down and
it did everything it could and they kept
coming and you just had this horrific
terrifying
you know sad conclusion it's gonna die
unless
unless a massive spins
up to blow water down and create some
disruption there's no
it's got no chance it's going to get
eaten alive
and it's horrific and it's terrifying
and that's life that's nature and then
you start to realize
on all those pretty national geographic
tv shows
you see the lions attack the antelope or
the gazelle
and they try and they miss like well no
dinner for you tonight no the antelope
trot off happy with their babies and the
lions trot off happy with a little smirk
and everybody's like that's about as
much nature as they want
nobody wants them more nature when you
think about it a bit more you realize
well they're gonna miss three four days
they're going to hit one of those
a week and that and and
29 of them are going to live but one of
them is going to die
and over three years they're all going
to die
to be eaten by the lions
and that's nature everyone
that's and by the way every week that
goes by
it's like they're clicking on a carousel
and the oldest one is getting slower
and a little bit a little bit tighter
and a little bit less flexible
and if they don't get the old one
they're gonna get the unlucky one
and that's why every one of them is
beautiful
because they're all in the prime of
their life and the same is true with all
the predators they're all in the primary
life when they get a little bit old
a little bit hurt they get driven out of
the tribe or out of the pride and then
that's end of it so in nature
the life expectancy of those wolves or
predators or lions is five years and in
the zoo is 15 years and if you want to
see a fat
mangy lame one you'll find one in the
zoo
you won't find one in wild and the same
is true with the rest
and when those two herds when they go at
each other
like that viciously they're both
strengthening
you take away the wolves from the deer
the deer overpopulate
they eat all of the trees the trees all
die
the trees die they destabilize the bank
men of the river
the river erodes everything you know the
riverbank gets screwed up
all the greenery dies all the deer are
gone
all the wolves of god you want to fix
the river you put the wolf back in the
wolf scares away
the deer the trees grow the roots
stabilize the bank
the river flows all the wildlife retain
returns
this beautiful thing we call nature is
in continual dynamic
equilibrium and everything about it is
getting stronger
and harder and faster and getting cold
all the time you know and
the mother nature is supreme
and men with delusions
that they will defeat her
right are are gonna be disappointed
right the great i guess the great
challenge
right is this paradox and the paradox is
the paradox of the engineer
versus the zookeeper
we see nature we want to engineer a
better world for ourselves
and it can be done but we can always
we can also reach too far and try too
hard
and and try to and try to make water
flow uphill
and try to make time flow backwards
we can try to shake our fist of mother
nature
we can defeat all those all of those
natural forces
and if we try to do that the energy
consumption
goes up exponentially and eventually it
goes up to such a level
that we deplete ourselves of energy and
we end up like those natives on easter
island
where you chop down every tree to
villager monuments to your gods and
pretty soon there's no canoes and pretty
soon there's no fish and pretty soon
there's no food and pretty soon there's
no you
all you've got is your monuments to your
god and you're all dead
because you depleted the energy in the
ecosystem
and in of over engineering
your reality let me ask you about
that point which i think is fantastic
it seems to me like the free market
is the economic expression of that
darwinian
equilibrium and that possibly with the
the implementation actually of central
banking
which is a you know it's antithetical to
a free market
institution it is it's a mono it's a
monopoly
it has i guess in our attempt to over
engineer the economy we have disturbed
that darwinian equilibrium in the
economy and that's why we're having all
these haywire
consequences like inflation and negative
rates and so on and so forth
yeah we've stopped
we've stopped it right we've attempted
to stop
time and and and interfere with nature
but we're we're trying to freeze that
dynamic equilibrium that's being
continually
trying to turn we're trying to turn
nature
into a zoo
okay so that was episode nine with
sailor
here in the sailor series and wow what
an episode
you know we started off this series
actually with a discussion of
stone age technologies which michael
laid out
his thesis of how mankind
is the dominant animal in the world
because we channel energy
across time and space more intelligently
than any other animal
and he really built the foundation by
drilling into
our use of fire as one of the primordial
energy networks
uh our use of water as a hydraulic
energy network for overcoming gravity
and our use of missiles for actually uh
competing
at a distance and in that
lens if we consider that that is the the
overarching
goal of humanity right is to more
intelligently or more precisely
channel energy across time and space um
bitcoin is a an elemental innovation
right it's the only system we've ever
had throughout history
that allows us to channel energy uh you
know effectively at the speed of light
and store it in a way that is totally
or virtually totally loss minimized
right there's no
unexpected inflation for instance and
there's very
minimal transaction fees just enough to
sustain the network
and you could contrast us with some
something like gold uh
which we touched on earlier that just
depreciates to two percent a year at
least
or something like fiat currency which
tends to depreciate much faster
so it takes a lot maybe to get to here
it's a whole reframing of your world
view
but i think sailor just did an excellent
job of that and
i love the example he gave
where describing immunology actually is
another one of these elemental
innovations where we figured out
antiseptics um we figured out how to use
clean medical instruments
um and disinfectants and whatnot and
then in the discovery penicillin for
instance all of these things
that helped us insulate ourselves from
the entropy
of of microbes right to be to
conduct medical and biological
experiments
and and operations with less exposure to
the entropy of nature
just catapulted our life expectancy
right we
almost overnight went from say 50 year
average life expectancy
to 70 years so i wonder
it and i love this the way he describes
it is
doing business right we're conducting
economics
thus far in history with dirty money
with contaminated money
uh and you could you can analogize this
to doing surgery with contaminated
medical instruments
right if you don't if you don't um
if you don't decontaminate your medical
instruments and you try to perform
surgery on someone you're going to cause
an infection and you're going to cause
death
and this was actually a major cause of
death throughout most of history
so in a s through a similar lens if
we're trying to build socioeconomic
systems
using a money that's contaminated with
the uncertainty of inflation
or confiscation or deauthorization it
it tends to make me believe that the
system we would build
would be more vulnerable to death as
well and i think that
a quick study of history will show you
that typically the debasement
of money tends to presage the collapse
of the civilization so
when the money becomes extra
contaminated this tends to be
a specter or a harbinger of its ultimate
demise
so i love this analogy and it
it really gets into the the entropy
aspect again if we just consider that
entropy is uncertainty
we want medical instruments that are
free from the uncertainty of microbial
infection
we want economic instruments that are
free from the uncertainty of inflation
deauthorization confiscation like it
just makes sense
the the more certainty we can add to our
tool set whether in the medical or the
economic domain
the more longevity we can give the
organism or
or the organization right it just makes
sense
so and you know as sailor said
earlier monetary energy being the
highest form of energy that humans can
channel
and channeling energy across space and
time being the highest aim of man
that effectively monetary energy is life
energy right it gives us a claim on all
of the forms of energy
so we can think of
encryption actually i think cylinder
tweeted this at one point that
encryption was the
the destiny of all money the destiny of
money is to be encrypted
we can think of encryption itself as a
sterilization
function or process for money right
we've actually
disinfected the money by encrypting its
its rules and its supply
um and this you know that kind of
hardens back to something we talked
about in earlier episodes as well
where uh consumer packaged goods when
we're able to vacuum seal foods
and store food energy in a stable
fashion at room temperature that was a
game changer
all of a sudden we had this abundance
of economic surplus and food energy that
we could distribute around the world
and this led to a surge in population
growth
so all these analogies pointing back to
this breakthrough that that is bitcoin
uh that again we've been building on in
early episodes i just found to be super
exciting
and then you know in in that lens sailor
also talked about the story of his
mother actually being diabetic
and this was the connection i made there
was
she was essentially following a
governmental food advisory right just
eating the typical
uh food pyramid that governments at
least the us government used to advise
which had carbs is kind of the staple
the big thing at the bottom
bread pasta etc and then worked its way
up
whereas in fact uh anyone that studied
ketogenics and paleo diets and whatnot
it tends to actually be the opposite you
want low carb high fat or high protein
diets
and it's not the same it's not one size
fits all but
a lot of the diseases we suffer from
today like
diabetes is from excessive carb
consumption
so the connection i made there was that
this government
food pyramid scheme or mistake whatever
you want to call it
whether the intention was good or bad
it's actually rooted in
the government fiat currency pyramid
scheme where
we have contaminated the money
so we've contaminated even the the
uh ideologies we put out in terms of
nutrition
and it just has these cascading effects
um
and i just i thought it was really
interesting how again inflation is not
just contaminating our economic efforts
but it actually bleeds over into the
biological domain
so as sailor said
fiat currency is toxic money right it's
just
it's not sound it is it is not
entropy free it's infected with entropy
and this has all these second order
effects to everything that it touches
and
the main problem is
this misunderstanding about inflation
right we have this
this whole economic sphere today focus
on cpi
is inflation but it doesn't make any
sense at all
there's deeper reasons why if you read a
book like human action by myself that
you can never have an index for
inflation because
sort of like value itself
or beauty it's subjective right it's
based on the things you individually
desire
based on the course of your own goal
directed action so there's not a
universal index that can fit everyone
your own inflation number is a basket of
these goods that you're seeking
and um they you know the government
metric is just taking
what they you know assume to be things
that are desirable
but exclude assets so it's like they're
excluding the fact that anyone wants to
get wealthy which is absurd
they're also excluding food and energy
and other
volatile assets volatile meaning
they changed in price we're talking
about a metric
that is intended to reflect price
changes excluding things that changed in
price
it is a non-starter it's absolutely
crazy
and this is still the benchmark number
that so many people are focused on
and it's just amazing to me as uh still
goes on
so i think and i love the the discussion
flowed into
understanding inflation which for me i
think this makes more sense is
if you think about it in rate of change
terms
as in how many dollars are being
produced the growth in dollar production
relative to the growth
in good or service production right if
the pace
of fiat currency production is outpacing
uh
the productivity gains or the output on
a particular good or service
it's going to inflate in price because
you have more dollars
chasing the same or only slightly
growing
goods or services so another way to say
that is how energy intensive
is the good right and the the example
that i like to think about is
ribeye steak we're not going to invent
a technological breakthrough that makes
cows grow faster really right it still
requires kind of the same amount of
sunlight and energy and time and
processing
to deliver a ribeye steak so um and
it turns out historically that actually
the the purchasing power of gold
maps pretty nicely to um to ribeye steak
or
cows more generally um
and so in that way it's it's
inflation is not a single universal
phenomenon that we can peg to one index
number
it's occurring differently for every
asset
and every person in every place at every
time
it's it's just it's this undulating
sphere of changing economic values you
can't
possibly just put a number to and say
that as inflation
um another way to say that is it's just
uneven
across space and time so you're dumping
new money supply into the system
that money itself is distributed on the
evenly and then the aims of economic
actors are shifting unevenly as well
right supply
and demand so it's just
hubris to think that we could peg it all
to one index number
and then you know to that point
sailor makes a more sound argument
that a more appropriate measure of
inflation knowing that we can't peg it
to a number
but what we can do is say well what do
things what are things that people
generally
desire and how much are their prices
changing year over year
he gave the example of early retirement
premier real estate
um you know things like this things that
people actually want in life
you don't go to work uh to think i just
want to put food on the table for the
rest of my life like at some point you'd
like to work towards an aim or a goal
whether that's a nice home
living in a nice neighborhood possibly
you know i love the example of early
retirement where you can just buy a
government bond
that pays you a you know quote-unquote
risk-free rate
for the next 30 years um and
and looking at the price and of
government bonds and how much that's
jumped uh based on based on
monetary policy so i thought that was
just a great example and um
it's interesting because i think when
you really
get the first principles on it
inflation as we define it fiat currency
inflation which is just an
arbitrary increase in the money supply
that adds no economic value to an
economy whatsoever this is very
important to understand
that printing money in quote-unquote
you're not infusing an economy with any
new factors of production whether this
is
human time ingenuity tools equipment
factories like there's nothing being
added to the economy
you've just reshuffled the paper claims
on those productive factors
so you've you've taken away from those
relying on fiat currency or the dollars
of store value and you've reallocated
those claims to whoever can get their
hands on the newly printed money first
and spend it first so it's
it's it is a mechanism for theft i don't
know what else to call it frankly it
only has one purpose
all right you could you can argue about
the intentionality
whatever i'm not i'm not here to debate
that i can just tell you that the tool
fiat currency the inflation of fiat
currency has only
one purpose and that is to reallocate
wealth from some
and allocate it to others against their
will
by the way so i don't know what else you
could call that really besides stuff
and it seems to me like this
keynesian ideology feels like a cover-up
i mean i i don't know if they just
believe what they're saying about
inflation you know
sailor he was arguing that they bled
george washington
to death and they thought that was the
best course of action maybe that is the
case
maybe keynesian economists are so deeply
steeped
in in this ideology that they just can't
see
their own hand in front of their face so
to speak um
or perhaps it's something more nefarious
uh
more of a propagandistic thing but but
regardless
i love the point that
and he tied this into an old uh i think
was a german
propaganda machine says their studies
show them that they
can't tell people what to think but they
can tell people what to think about
and it is amazing to me how many
uh sophisticated investors i've talked
to about bitcoin and macroeconomics over
the years
and people are just anchored to cpi as
inflation it's as
if this this wool has just been pulled
over their eyes that
they are satisfied with the answer
presented to them
versus thinking more deeply about it i
can't help think it's related to this
right it's just it's pushed as
the represent representation of
inflation and people just
accept it at face value which
is just a really bad deal all the way
around so
we got into a bit of discussion about
interest rates
and his analogy of actually suppressing
is freezing out market participants are
sucking the air out of the room
right we're actually if you consider
that the interest rate
is the price of money money is this tool
for trading
time and energy we could consider that
the interest rate is the price
of time or energy effectively and
when you try and suppress it you're
you're
fighting against uh the natural flow of
time if you will
or something of that effect and it's
it's this misguided attempt
to try and mute entropy
that causes uh it's an eye
what to love would call this is an
iotrogenic effect
so it's harm caused by the healer
when um someone over medicates
you know again back to george washington
they thought they were helping george
washington by bleeding him
but they were actually hurting him all
right they actually killed him by doing
that
um there's you know many doctors today
will prescribe you
a pill for your cholesterol or your your
anxiety or whatever it may be whereas
in fact the right treatment of the core
problem right not just a drug to cover
up the symptoms
could be something more like a removal
elimination of certain foods from your
diet or fasting
or whatever it may be
and it this to me it points towards
what central banks i mean ostensibly at
least have been trying to do
is that they're trying
their their explicit aim is price
stability and low unemployment
so price stability
you're saying that you want supply and
demand
worldwide to be like consistently close
enough to keep prices stable it just
doesn't make any sense
it's it's it you're you're
arguing against the entropy of nature
again and
when you try and artificially inflate
the money supply to create this
veneer of stability you're actually just
delaying
your your first or you're manipulating
market prices so
supply and demand buyers and sellers are
having trouble getting matched up
correctly which is what the market does
because of this
this distortion in the marketplace but
you're also delaying and exacerbating
the ultimate correction because you
can't fool
economic reality and
in that way i see the the
vision i have in mind is central banking
is kind of like an air conditioner
so it's trying to pump you know an air
conditioner is a heat pump so it's
pulling entropy out of the room it's not
actually putting cold air into the room
it's pulling hot air out of the room or
heat energy out of the room and if
you've ever stood behind an air
conditioner
you'll feel it you'll feel the heat
coming off of it that it's pumping out
of that
room that it's air conditioning and it
seems like central bank is trying to
accomplish that in a way
it's trying to paper over the entropy
the natural entropy of price instability
and unemployment
but in doing so it's it's pumping out
uh you know it's creating certainty for
its shareholders let's say
um so it's decreasing the entropy for
its shareholders but it's pumping out
entropy onto broader society in the form
of price distortions
an exacerbated boom and bust business
cycle and you could even throw warfare
in there
right central banks were originally set
up to fund warfare to give governments
a virtual limitless mechanism
for funding war where instead of just
needing to rely on their own savings
they could just print money
and and siphon savings off the entire
productive economy
so that's my central bank air
conditioning analogy that it's it's
trying to
cool the room for its shareholders with
pumping heat onto broader society and
it's just
disastrous
[Music]
so then we we got into the relationship
between
interest rates and the risk-free rate
i'm sorry inflation rates and the
risk-free rate so the risk-free rate
would be
the yield on government bonds so in
finance we say that
and this is a quote-unquote risk free
rate that the us government for instance
cannot default on its debt because it
can always just print more money to to
pay its principal
what that actually means is that it can
never default on its debt because it can
externalize the cost of that debt onto
society
via inflation so that's your risk-free
rate whatever the u.s
10 or 30-year treasury is yielding and
then there's the inflation rate which is
how quickly again not cpi
but we could say our proxy is how
quickly is the us m2
increasing on a percentage basis and the
delta between these two
is a negative real yield right if i can
only get
two percent on u.s treasuries which is
it's lower than that today
but usm2 is growing at 15 year-over-year
it's expected to do that for the next
few years then i've got a negative real
yield
of 13 so unless i'm growing my business
or my own personal cash flows by more
than 13
year-over-year then i'm being diluted
i'm losing
money um and this is
so that's the hurdle rate basically to
use an another investment term you need
to at least exceed
the delta between inflation uh and the
risk-free rate
to even be accretive to your business or
your your household whatever it may be
so the only way to do this is you need
to buy an equity
right and a lot of people are doing this
they're buying equities as a store value
that is expected to appreciate
faster than that negative real yield
um a lot of this is in tech because tech
has uh
just a ton of productivity gains
associated with it
and they've had you know a great decade
so that their their
start to be market actor expectations
built into that price
or if you look at the p e ratio of
something like
zoom or even tesla or facebook they're
just
they're astronomically high relative to
historic averages
so another way to think about that is
the
there's nowhere to store your value um
that's safe
except these equities that are expected
to grow and outpace the hurdle rate and
remain
relatively scarce um
so that leaves you with these
bonds that are you know they're yielding
less than the inflation rate they're
long-term dilutive
and then those negative real yields
that's driving
and incentivizing people to buy scarce
assets
so again equities real estate
um gold and then you know this is
also the bucket you put bitcoin's value
prop in is that it's the scarcest liquid
asset in human history so of course it's
going to benefit
um from this essentially planned market
manipulation in both
the bond and fiat currency markets
so and we talked a bit about this just
the one way to strip out central bank
market manipulation and get an honest
assessment
of what's going on is to just price the
index
in gold or bitcoin again bitcoin's a bit
more noisy because it's emergent
gold has a much longer history or to say
this one could also price it
in the change in money supply and this
will strip out a lot of the manipulation
so if you look at the past
decade in the s p it's been one long
bull market
you price that same chart in gold it's
flat
or it hasn't done a lot so that's
i think really important uh as far as
changing your economic frame of
reference
um which is what's so tricky about
talking
about these things about like what is
money because it's it's an
a priori perception
and a priority means uh no priors so
it's kind of like the
you're you're you're looking at what is
looking so to speak
and people just the the a priori
uh economic language today is dollars
for most people this is what they think
in that's what they trade in and
negotiate in
but you have to look at the dilution
occurring in that frame of reference
which is the dollar
so it's it's a bit of a meta thinking
but it's really important for
coming to sound economic conclusions and
calculations
and then we got into which i thought was
really interesting this the competition
in the law of decimation
say let me the point that even if you're
smarter
than 99 i've never thought about this
say you are one of the top 0.1
most intelligent people in the world you
were smarter than 99.99
of humanity there are still on this
planet
750 000 people smarter than you
like i it's just crazy to me to think of
it that way
and in the digital age
i think what we're entering is this age
of excellency almost where
because you know the bounds of location
have been lifted
through through digital tools and
technologies you're it's no longer good
enough to just be
the best local guy whatever it is
singing for instance so maybe you're a
billy joel impersonator or something
it's no longer a good career strategy to
just be the best
uh billy joel impersonator in your
neighborhood
because people have youtube now they can
go and look at the best billy joel
impersonator of all time
or maybe even billy joel himself and
that they can seek their entertainment
there so you start competing
for audience with the best of the best
in any domain that can be conducted
remotely which you know increasingly
is is every domain so
this means that excellency is going to
have more of a tendency to rise to the
surface
and that markets more typically are
going to converge on winner take all
dynamics
so it changes things a lot you know this
this non-locality or
um not being bound by geography really
changes the game a lot in a lot of ways
so say this point was you've got to
focus
your energies to compete well on
your specialty whatever that is whatever
skill set or unique ability you have
whatever gift you might have
uh and you got to stay humble and you
just really have to focus
on on that and developing it to the best
of your ability
but also maintain the humility i think
necessary to succeed and learn
and grow uh and you know any time
as he was describing his experience at
microstrategy it's just
it's ferociously competitive anytime you
become arrogant
or comfortable or resting on your
laurels one of those 750 000 people are
just going to eat you up
right they can go out raise much money
they want what you have by definition
if you're successful so
if anything digital tech has made the
world more fiercely competitive which i
thought was really interesting
and uh as far as the law of
decimation you know we brought up the
point that in ancient rome
there was the law the law of decimation
was
any time the soldiers broke ranks or
retreated
that 10 of them would randomly be put to
death and they would make the other
nine put the 10th to death and what this
was
was a massive disincentive to male
performance
so no one wanted everyone had a big
incentive
to hold the line so to speak and to act
in a concerted effort because if they
didn't if they if they got fearful
or or started um you know kind of
operating their own individual best
interests in a battle
where you need the collective effort of
the battalion to win
then they they're engaging in this
lottery where
either they're going to be put to death
or you know at least one in
10 of their friends is going to be put
to death so i thought that was really
interesting
um a really good system for inducing
skin in the game and it turns out that
this is again kind of getting back into
natural law it's sort of a reflection of
what we observe in nature
and that one in 10 of any
anything any system with 10 moving parts
one is going to break down per year
roughly so
10 uh breakdown in parts or features
per year um and
i thought that was interesting i
observed that as just being
again we're creating these systems that
are intended to
confront the entropy of nature and deal
with it in certain ways well that has a
cost
right and every year by some universal
magic that number tends to be about 10
which i thought was interesting
and this pointed back to steel sailor
referred to like steel will last forever
if you maintain it so you need to expend
uh the 10
whatever per year to maintain it in
terms of painting it uh
maybe this is also related to the
religious tithing which we see as like a
10
contribution annually to the institution
uh and that's that's across the number
of religions
and i think this too points to a
strength of bitcoin is that
it actually has minimized moving parts
so um and it's it's open source so
anything that does break down as is
there's as many eyes on it as possible
to quickly repair it but but it
minimizes
it's saying in comparison to something
like ethereum that just has
countless moving parts it's gonna it's
gonna suffer more
from this law of decimation over time
than something like bitcoin will which
is more optimized for survivability
and then finally got into the philosophy
philosophy of stoicism and
this is a philosophy which ties back
into everything we're talking about it's
consistent with thermodynamics
so again if we're just saying it in a
purely physics sense
we would say truth is an accurate
portrayal of reality
we know that everything in the universe
is energy
so therefore conservation of energy
which is the first law of thermodynamics
that is truthfulness right so
the systems the strategies the
techniques the businesses the
individuals
that optimize for energy conservation
that's just this doesn't just mean
defending all the energy you have you
can actually increase
energy efficiency through innovation
right so being exploratory
figuring out a new way of doing things
can actually add your energy efficiency
as well so there's this
ratcheting effect between defending what
you've gained and gaining new innovation
so this
stoicism is this thermodynamic
philosophy if you will which i think is
so cool that it's
it's a way many of the ancients accorded
their behavior
and it directly maps on to innovation
and general biological success
so the stoic again when we have this
law of decimations we have these systems
encountering
the chaos of nature there's a little bit
of breakdown over time uh
the stoic embraces that stoic knows
and willingly embraces what that your
death
right the the potential death of your
child
uh the potential loss of your business
or your fortune there are all these
practices when you get into
socialism like negative visualization um
where you may imagine for instance
the next time you hug your mother you
just imagine that that that may be the
last time you ever hug her
and through that mental practice you're
actually
training yourself to be more grateful
for something in the moment
and you're you're preparing yourself for
the inevitable loss that will come right
your mother will be gone one day
so and socialism is a deep rabbit hole
and unto itself i'll just leave it at
one example but
i thought that was really cool that
stoics embrace entropy
and choose to accept it and strive on
valiantly nonetheless and i think that's
the only
proper approach to life if you're going
to be successful
and then say they went into the paradox
of marcus aurelius which i've never
heard before i'm a big fan of marcus
um you know marcus great philosopher
king
great writer but in the end
sort of blew it on one decision and
say this one here we said that words
don't matter
you know actions do ultimately and even
one action can undo uh you know a
lifetime of good action
that this reminded me of televised
don't tell me what you think just show
me what's in your portfolio
it's more about the actions you take
with skin in the game
versus your cognitive beliefs um
and for me personally i think i tie this
back to religion actually is it
people always want to argue do you
believe in god do you not believe in god
i love jordan peterson's answer to those
words i act as if god exists
it doesn't god doesn't care about my
cognitive beliefs it's more about
my embodied action and my my moral
behavior
uh that really matters in the world so
it's a bit of an occam's
razor thing there um anyways
the the story of the marcus is you know
he was
he had the keys to the kingdom right
he's one of the most successful emperors
of all time he was the platonic ideal of
the philosopher king and he
on his final decision essentially and as
emperor of rome
decided to break duty break with
tradition break with the the stoic
protocol
if you will of appointing um the most
competent
man for the job for succession
and instead appointed commodus which was
his son
and there's something really deep here
there's this this age-old
struggle between i guess you would say
duty and love
um and i don't know this one left me
thinking so i i'm
i'd be excited to hear some of your guys
feedback on this but it's really
fascinating to me that we had this you
know guy held in such high regard and
then at the
you know the last yard line so to speak
he just fumbled the ball
um but you know i don't know if it was
i'll say i don't know if it was based on
love for his son or something else but
um it'd be really interesting right if
you made this decision out of love
so to speak yet it still proved to be
the wrong decision for civilization just
just a mind-bending thing but that was
super interesting
and the warning there is you know you
can live
a good life you can be a good leader
good writer
whatever but there's all you have to
always
remain humble and never become arrogant
no matter how much success you've had
because there's always that opportunity
to snatch defeat from the draws of
victory as sailor put it which i thought
was brilliant
and then finally uh we completed
the episode with a discussion about
anti-fragility and vitality
and i loved this point that
animals in the wild are all beautiful
because they're constantly being
conditioned against the chaos of nature
once they've you know went past the
tipping point of misfitness they're no
longer
serving their highest and best function
in the world
some something else eats them right
they're they're they're gone so and it's
nature
rolling forward and becoming better
through this process this dynamic
equilibrium between predator and prey
and it it's this this natural you know
darwinian natural selection that's
constantly promulgating excellence and
beauty
uh in the world and it's just it's a
it's great to behold you know if you've
ever watched a nature documentary
it's one of the most awe-inspiring
things i think we can watch so
um another way to think about this is
just nature constantly
sharpening her own strategies against
herself
so the the the strategies of animals the
survival strategies are constantly being
tested against the environment
and those those that succeed uh
roll forward and those that do not are
weeded out and so you're left with kind
of just
by definition the most fit uh
creature for for its its environment
and when we try and disturb that dynamic
equilibrium
um it we're just exacerbating
that correction so we're instead of
having these little corrections along
the way
we're giving uh time for the strategy
and the environment to diverge
significantly to where
an ultimate you know cataclysmic uh
return is necessary
uh what you know and that's what nature
does it always selects
and it always restores balance so
all of that tying back into again what i
think
central banking is just a failure of an
institution because it's tried to over
engineer this dynamic equilibrium of
nature
right we have price instability and
unemployment
as a natural product of the business
cycle um
it's trying to paper over that uh it's
trying to pretend
or even not even pretend it's trying to
eliminate this dynamic equilibrium and
create something that's predictable
right it's trying to subdue the entropy
of nature if you will
which could be a good intention but
clearly has a poor result
which leads to suppressed interest rates
which is like trying to reverse the flow
of time
so it's all of this this effort going
countervailing to nature that always
fails
that's the core point here um and
you know it turns nature into a zoo
right we said every animal is beautiful
but if you really want to see some
some not beautiful animals you can
actually go to a zoo they're sad
right they're in a cage they're not
fulfilling the function for which they
were evolved
and i think central banking sort of
turns society into a zoo
it softens us in this process of trying
to protect us
quote unquote from price instability and
unemployment
is actually reducing our skin in the
game
softening us externalizing entropy onto
society
so um yeah
i you know it's another awesome episode
hope you guys enjoyed this uh sailor and
i are going to do at least
one more episode so maybe more after
that we're going to see how it goes
um but i hope you enjoyed this one as
much as i did and i'll see you again
here soon
thanks