SaylorCorpus

Analyst Q&A: MSTR Q4 2025 Earnings Call

Bitcoin For Corporations · 2026-02-06 · 46m · View on YouTube →

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We are now going to proceed to the

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interactive live Q&A section of our

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webinar. I would like to welcome all our

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Q&A guests and invite them to come on

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video. We look forward to hearing your

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questions. We will go one at a time and

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I will call your names and you can

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direct your questions to the management

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team. So for the first question, I would

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like to invite uh Lance Watenza, our

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research analyst from TD.

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>> Thank you all for taking the questions

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and for the call. Um my question is

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since the beginning of the year I can

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count three weeks over which your

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Bitcoin acquisitions have generated

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negative slightly negative but negative

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Bitcoin yield. Now I'm all in favor of

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buying Bitcoin even when times are

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tough. But shouldn't the goal be to

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increase Bitcoin per share at all times

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rather than just increasing the total

0:53

amount of Bitcoin that you that you own?

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maybe you could just talk about the

0:57

strategy or the thinking that went into

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those three particular weeks and what

1:00

that could mean going forward.

1:04

>> Yeah, we agree with you. Um we uh those

1:08

we we don't aim to reproduce those

1:10

weeks. the times that we've actually

1:11

done dilutive transactions on a Bitcoin

1:14

for share basis where um if you go back

1:18

to the crypto winner when we you know

1:21

when we had to recapitalize some toxic

1:23

debt on our balance sheet uh we took out

1:26

we took out debt either it was like

1:28

asset back loans or senior debt that had

1:32

EBITD do covenants that we felt were

1:34

crippling the company's growth prospects

1:36

and so so uh we didn't do it uh

1:41

enthusiastically, but we did it because

1:43

over the 10-year time frame, we knew we

1:45

needed to remove those toxic elements to

1:47

our balance sheet. Um if you look at

1:50

these three weeks uh when we took uh

1:53

actions that were somewhat diluted, they

1:55

all were generally associated with

1:58

building up the US dollar reserve. And

2:01

we did that in response to analysis and

2:05

feedback from the market and and some

2:07

reflexive uh uh concerns that we

2:11

wouldn't be able to pay the dividend if

2:13

uh the equity capital markets close to

2:15

us. So we wanted to get ahead of that

2:18

and address the credit quality. So the

2:20

reason we did it and the short answer is

2:22

we do it to improve the creditworthiness

2:24

of the company and if we felt that there

2:28

was a credit problem we would do it. Um

2:32

right now we feel that we've built the

2:34

US dollar reserve to the level where we

2:37

don't have a credit problem. We're good

2:39

for the next few years. We don't have

2:41

any of those other forms of debt, the

2:43

senior debt or the asset back lending.

2:46

So the balance sheet is is in much

2:48

better shape today. Going forward, we we

2:51

wouldn't, you know, we wouldn't

2:53

electively or or programmatically issue

2:57

equity to buy Bitcoin if it was going to

2:59

decrease Bitcoin per share, right? where

3:02

we're where we don't think that's a good

3:05

idea, we would only we would only take

3:08

those actions when we feel like it's

3:11

essential to defend the credit of the

3:14

company because if people lose

3:16

confidence in the credit then that will

3:19

ripple into losing confidence in the

3:21

equity and then losing confidence in the

3:23

business model in general. So, so, um,

3:28

it's a practical consideration.

3:30

Uh, but, uh, I don't think I don't think

3:33

we expect to see anything, um, of that

3:37

magnitude going forward because the

3:39

first $2.25 billion of US dollar reserve

3:42

was a big move. And just if I could just

3:45

get a followup question regarding that

3:47

$2.5 billion cash reserve. Um c could

3:51

you in theory could you use that if you

3:54

chose could you use that to redeem the

3:56

billion dollars of converts that are

3:59

putable in September of 27?

4:02

>> Yeah, we could we could use it for any

4:05

corporate purpose. We could use to pay

4:07

dividends. We could use it uh to meet um

4:10

a credit obligation. We could use it to

4:13

pay interest on a loan. We could use it

4:15

for whatever.

4:17

>> Thank you.

4:20

>> Great. Thank you, Lance. For the next

4:22

question, I would like to invite Tom Lee

4:24

from Funstrat and Bitmind.

4:27

>> Uh, hi. Uh, thank you everybody. Uh,

4:30

really useful presentation. I took a ton

4:33

of notes. Um, but I want to ask you a

4:37

two-part question. I apologize. It's two

4:39

parts. Um, on slide 53,

4:42

you talked about quantum vulnerability

4:45

of Bitcoin and

4:48

uh, and I apologize, I know it's getting

4:50

a little nerdy, but I know a lot of

4:51

people have questions about quantum

4:53

vulnerability because of course Bitcoin

4:57

could upgrade its network, but I know

5:00

there's three types of wallets that

5:03

remain quantum vulnerable. You know, one

5:05

is Satoshi because he used a

5:07

payto-public key, you know,

5:09

a really old wallet and then anyone

5:12

who's sent Bitcoin reveals their public

5:16

key. Um, and then as you know the

5:19

taproot wallets uh actually are are

5:23

somewhat quantum vulnerable. So I think

5:25

that's like 25 or 30% of all Bitcoin

5:28

wallets out there. So the part one

5:30

question is you I know Micro Strategy is

5:33

a security expert. You have so much

5:35

experience in security. could you give

5:38

us some idea of how Bitcoin and the core

5:41

developers might think about addressing

5:44

uh the quantum vulnerable wallets? But

5:46

the second part is that's a really a

5:49

small part of the story because there's

5:51

4.4 million there's only 4.4 million

5:53

wallets that have even $10,000 worth of

5:55

Bitcoin which means what whereas there's

5:59

almost a billion accounts globally that

6:01

have $10,000 of stocks, bonds or cash.

6:04

meaning the world hasn't really adopted

6:07

Bitcoin yet. And so, you know, as you

6:10

think about the rest of this year, could

6:11

you give us like what you think are some

6:14

milestones or road maps that further

6:16

drive Bitcoin adoption which in turn

6:18

help the price of Bitcoin?

6:22

So with regard to the first the quantum

6:24

question, I I don't think it's

6:28

appropriate for us to advocate uh a

6:31

particular

6:32

u solution or a particular approach nor

6:37

a particular time frame. I think that

6:40

our role is to support all of the

6:43

various communities and facilitate the

6:45

evolution of consensus about what should

6:48

be done, how it should be done, when it

6:50

should be done. And I think that uh if

6:54

you accelerate those and pressurize

6:57

those processes, you end up solving a

6:59

bunch of problems that don't exist in a

7:01

way that maybe are iatrogenic.

7:04

So um we don't have uh a particular

7:09

set of uh of policy points that we wish

7:13

to advocate right now. Nor do I think

7:15

it's really responsible or appropriate

7:17

for us to do that. Um I think that uh I

7:21

think that that will be emergent uh you

7:24

know exactly what should be done when by

7:26

the way it's not it's not clear anything

7:28

should be done ever. It's it's quite

7:30

possible we'll actually pop out. You

7:33

remember, you know, the world was going

7:35

to, you know, end in climate change,

7:37

death, you know,

7:40

26 years ago when 26 years went by and

7:43

none of those things happened. We were

7:45

going to, you know, Bitcoin was going to

7:46

boil the ocean, use all the energy on

7:48

Earth as late as 2018 and that never

7:51

happened.

7:52

It's possible that whatever happens in

7:54

the quantum domain will actually improve

7:56

the security of the Bitcoin network

7:57

inadvertently before we have to even

7:59

discuss a protocol change. So I I don't

8:02

think there's any particular policies uh

8:06

to be advocating right now other than to

8:08

support all the various communities and

8:10

facilitate consensus at the right time

8:13

to do the right things. Um

8:16

the second topic is is really what are

8:19

the catalysts for uh for Bitcoin price

8:21

to improve. Look I I think the the

8:25

fundamental catalyst

8:27

are regulatory support. We have a very

8:31

we have the most constructive

8:34

constructive set of financial regulators

8:37

in the history of the industry right

8:39

now. the head of the Fed, the head of

8:40

the Treasury, the head of the CFTC, the

8:43

head of the SEC, and the White House has

8:46

a digital assets ZAR, right? Those five

8:50

things are massive bull flags. They're

8:53

all very positive and and generally you

8:58

would expect that something good will

8:59

come probably out of the CFTC or the SEC

9:03

as they are constructive about

9:06

facilitating financial companies uh to

9:09

innovate in the digital asset space.

9:11

Right? I I I would been skeptical about

9:13

that two years ago. But I think I think

9:16

for you to be skeptical about their

9:19

support for digital innovation today

9:21

would be would be ignoring all the words

9:25

from everybody in those positions. And I

9:27

think that the second the second

9:29

catalyst will be banking adoption. the

9:32

formation of the banking credit networks

9:36

as as uh the large banks and as as

9:39

companies like Schwab they start to

9:41

allow you to trade Bitcoin custody cryp

9:45

uh Bitcoin borrow against Bitcoin

9:48

um they're going to legitimize the asset

9:51

and they're going to decrease the

9:53

volatility of the asset. They're going

9:55

to improve the uh usefulness of the

9:59

asset. You know, you're you're aware of

10:01

the announcement of the Black Rockck

10:04

Bitcoin volatility income fund that came

10:07

like about a week ago where they said

10:08

they were going to sell volatility or

10:10

generate income. And there's a lot of

10:12

people that speculate that will decrease

10:14

the volatility of Bitcoin and and put

10:17

more uh a more stable floor into the

10:20

asset. So I think the actions by big

10:23

finance, the actions by the big banks

10:26

and the actions by the financial

10:28

regulators

10:30

are the fundamentals. I mean those are

10:32

the fundamental things. And if you were

10:33

to light a candle and pray, you know, to

10:36

the gods of the cryptosphere, you know,

10:39

you would say, I want pro- digital

10:42

assets regulators. I want pro- digital

10:45

assets banks. And I want pro- digital

10:48

assets financial innovations like Black

10:51

Rockck's bringing to the market like

10:52

like we're bringing to the market right

10:54

you know like STRC

10:57

but fundamentally the industry is going

10:59

to move forward because of enlightened

11:02

regulation

11:03

uh engaged thoughtful banking and then

11:07

innovative finance and that's what we're

11:10

doing and that's what we see right now.

11:21

>> Thank you, Tom. For the next question, I

11:21

would like to invite Pete Christensen

11:24

from City.

11:26

>> Thank you. Uh, good evening. Um,

11:28

Michael, I want to talk about uh events

11:30

of the last week. On Friday, the

11:33

president uh presented his nominee for

11:35

next Fed chair, which uh exacerbated

11:39

volatility across a number of asset

11:41

classes, including Bitcoin. Uh the good

11:44

news is uh Kevin Worsh is on the tape uh

11:48

noting that uh Bitcoin is is the new

11:51

gold. So so so that's good. But I guess

11:55

uh my question is uh how would

11:57

strategies capital allocation

12:00

framework or possibly if it would change

12:04

if the next Fed chair is is perceived to

12:06

be less independent perhaps maybe more

12:09

tolerant of fiscal dominance?

12:11

um that may raise Bitcoin prices

12:14

shortterm, but longer term it may

12:16

introduce increased rate volatility

12:19

which may be a challenge on the funding

12:21

side. I'm just curious if you have any

12:23

perspectives on uh how that might change

12:26

the capital allocation framework for

12:28

strategy. Thank you.

12:31

>> We try to be very reactive to market

12:33

signals. So, so for example, when our

12:38

equity trades weak, we don't sell it.

12:40

when our credit instruments are underper

12:44

are trading weak and when the cost of

12:45

credit is too high we don't sell them uh

12:49

you know the most obvious is STRC if it

12:51

trades below 100 we don't sell it so in

12:55

in periods where the marketplace loses

13:00

confidence in our particular credit

13:02

instruments we simply wait and you know

13:06

in periods when you know when the MNAV

13:10

of the equity explodes to three or three

13:13

and a half, we might sell a billion

13:15

dollars a day, right? So, when the when

13:18

uh the capital markets are enthusiastic

13:21

about either the equity or the credit,

13:23

we react to them. And you know, it's

13:26

it's above our pay grade to set

13:28

financial policy. It's even above our

13:30

pay grade to interpret like the the

13:33

financial policy like sometimes

13:35

sometimes the you know the macroeconomy

13:39

has one set of numbers and you would

13:40

think it's good for Bitcoin but it's bad

13:42

for Bitcoin or another time you would

13:44

say well if he you know they do this

13:46

that should be good for us and it's not

13:48

good for us and then other times it's

13:50

the opposite. Um, well, I think the nice

13:53

thing about our business is we have the

13:56

option to do nothing and we have a set

14:01

of disciplined capital markets programs.

14:03

They they've moved from being uh

14:06

discreet where it's like, well, we got

14:07

to do a deal this quarter. What's the

14:09

deal we're going to do in Q3? Uh, and

14:11

we've moved from discrete 144A capital

14:14

markets programs to continuous ATM type

14:18

programs. And with the ATMs, you know,

14:22

if if the market thinks, you know, that

14:26

uh the cost of capital on an instrument

14:28

like STRF should be 11%, well, we just

14:32

don't want to sell it. So, we think it

14:35

ought to go to 8%. So when you know when

14:39

the market takes ST str S str S str S

14:41

str S str S str S str S str S str S str STRF to 140 or or whatever the price it

14:45

is that we think is fair then we will be

14:48

open to issuing more and when the market

14:51

is is bearish on those instruments we

14:54

don't and the good thing about the

14:56

business is if you think if you think

14:59

Bitcoin is going to grow fill in a

15:02

number 30% a year then our option is

15:05

just do nothing and we're a a company

15:07

that's a 4550$50 billion company growing

15:10

30% a year. So that's our default. Our

15:14

default if you think Bitcoin's only

15:15

going to grow 10 or 20% a year, our

15:17

default is we just do nothing and we

15:20

grow at the rate of Bitcoin and we're

15:21

okay with that. And then if we think

15:24

that there's something very accretive

15:26

that's uh that's going to be good for

15:28

the shareholders then we will

15:29

participate and we can participate you

15:32

know in size a million a day 100 million

15:35

a day a billion a day

15:38

you know and and the truth is you know

15:41

Pete sometimes we get up in the morning

15:43

and we s we basically set up our

15:45

programs and and we think well

15:49

nothing's going to happen today and then

15:51

five minutes before the market closes, a

15:54

lot of stuff happens like it it can

15:56

literally change in 60 seconds and and

16:00

again that's that's uh beyond you know

16:03

our control. We can't control how the

16:06

markets will interpret all these things.

16:09

What we can do is set up a rational set

16:11

of creditru structures so that we only

16:15

issue credit when we think it's in the

16:18

best interest of the company and we only

16:21

issue equity when it's in the best

16:22

interest of the company.

16:24

>> Thank you, Michael. Fair and helpful

16:26

comments.

16:28

>> Thank you, Pete. Uh for the next

16:29

question, I would like to invite Lynn

16:32

Alden from Lynn Alden Investment

16:34

Strategy.

16:36

>> Thank you for the opportunity. uh given

16:37

the popularity of uh STRC uh my

16:40

questions focused on that. Uh the

16:42

company established that USD reserve uh

16:44

which I think shored up the confidence

16:46

of the of these products and make them

16:47

more attractive. Uh right now the USD

16:50

reserve is um on the website 30 months

16:52

of coverage uh compared to the dividends

16:55

of the preferred. Uh the other

16:57

preferreds are fixed dividends. uh STRC

17:00

is a variable dividend which uh

17:02

introduces some degree of uncertainty

17:04

around how many months of coverage there

17:06

are for the the total amount of uh

17:08

dividends payable. Um do you have any

17:11

kind of views on what you think is an

17:12

appropriate minimum uh reserve relative

17:15

to to uh months of dividend coverage? Um

17:18

or do you have a kind of a maximum that

17:20

you'd be willing to pay on a dividend

17:22

for uh STRC? Um and then a related

17:26

question is uh we are seeing some kind

17:28

of early financial products that are uh

17:30

out in the market that are looking to

17:32

potentially leverage STRC

17:34

um given the the goal of low volatility

17:37

and and high yield. Um are you are you

17:40

monitoring the space for leverage built

17:42

on top of that as it as it could

17:43

contribute to um spikes of volatility

17:45

should there be an issue in in uh the

17:47

market? Uh, and do you have any are you

17:49

would you encourage that kind of thing

17:51

or would you dissuade um leverage from

17:53

from building on top of that uh uh

17:55

increasingly kind of popular product?

17:57

Thank you.

17:59

>> I I can start. Lynn, thanks for the

18:01

question. Uh first uh we said that we

18:04

target two to three years uh of uh

18:07

dividend coverage uh with our US dollar

18:09

reserve. So we wouldn't want it to go

18:11

below two years. I think three years

18:13

would be pretty high. Um, and as far as

18:17

whether we think there's a cap to the

18:19

stretch rate, you know, we're pretty

18:21

early on and we're sort of trying to

18:23

understand what happens every single

18:25

month at the end of the month. And

18:26

that's why we have our guidance that we

18:28

have, right? It's at 11 and a quarter.

18:31

Could we take it to 12 potentially? Uh,

18:33

but it's going to be a function of how

18:35

do we keep the price within a tight

18:38

range right around that $100? And also a

18:41

function of of what happens to interest

18:43

rates in general. Um, but I don't think

18:45

we have a cap right now. We're just

18:46

going to have to see how this instrument

18:48

plays out over time. Um, so that's the

18:51

answer uh on on on stretch overall. Um,

18:56

and your second question, remind me.

18:58

>> Uh, the second question was around uh

19:00

we're seeing kind of early um products

19:02

potentially looking to lever it up for

19:04

for um other customers. Do do you do you

19:07

perceive issues in that? Are you

19:08

monitoring it? Uh would you encourage or

19:10

or dissuade uh that type of activity? I

19:13

think anytime people create products on

19:15

top of stretch, right, there's some

19:16

products that we've seen like Buck that

19:18

have been issued that are they're not

19:20

lever products, but they're actually

19:21

reducing the volatility down to about

19:23

zero. Uh, and they're actually showing

19:26

daily acrals as opposed to monthly

19:29

acruals. So, I think those are positive.

19:31

I think the extent people are going to

19:33

build levered products, one, we can't

19:34

really, you know, we're not going to

19:36

stop them. And I think it leverage adds

19:38

liquidity adds a certain extent uh

19:41

interest in stretch and we'll see how it

19:45

plays out over time but I don't

19:46

necessarily think that's a bad thing.

19:49

>> Thank you for the clarifications.

19:58

>> Okay. So we can move on to the next

19:58

question. For that I would like to

20:00

invite Mark Bmer from Benchmark.

20:05

>> Thank you. Uh a couple of questions. Uh

20:07

first of all, um we have seen over the

20:11

last year um a tremendous number of new

20:14

digital asset treasury companies formed.

20:17

Uh many of them focused on accumulating

20:19

Bitcoin, others on accumulating other uh

20:22

crypto tokens. Um what is your take on

20:27

uh how this industry is likely to evolve

20:30

in terms of the number of players

20:33

whether there's going to be a shakeout

20:35

um if there is a shakeout will there be

20:37

consolidation and most importantly uh

20:41

what could this all mean for strategy uh

20:43

as it unfolds are there opportunities uh

20:47

for the company uh to take advantage uh

20:50

of that dynamic

20:52

>> you know I I think every business has to

20:55

have an operating model that works that

20:57

adds value uh if it's going to grow and

21:00

prosper. So uh one one model is just to

21:05

provide Bitcoin exposure if people in

21:07

the country in question can't get it any

21:09

other way. There are a lot of people in

21:11

the UK that bought our our stock for

21:13

four years because they just couldn't

21:14

buy Bitcoin any other way. So if there's

21:16

a value proposition, you know, in Brazil

21:19

or in, you know, in France or wherever,

21:22

then maybe just you can be a simple a

21:25

simple Bitcoin holder. I think uh I

21:27

think another value proposition is issue

21:29

digital credit. And you can see that

21:31

Strive and um and MetaPlanet have both

21:35

pursued digital credit. If you're good

21:37

at it, you know, by the way, you can do

21:39

digital credit and not be good at it,

21:40

right? If you take on debt you can't pay

21:42

back, right? then that that doesn't help

21:45

the company, that hurts the company. But

21:46

if you're good at digital credit, that

21:48

could be another case. You know, a third

21:52

a third would be anything that uses

21:54

capital, right? So, if these companies,

21:58

you know, if they want to generate

22:00

Bitcoin yield, they're going to have to

22:02

find some way uh to generate a benefit

22:05

from the capital, right? You could

22:07

underwrite insurance. You could you

22:10

could support uh trading or derivatives

22:12

trading by posting it as collateral. You

22:14

could engage in derivatives trading,

22:17

right? You could literally become a, you

22:18

know, a public company with a lot of

22:20

capital that trades in the digital

22:23

derivatives market, you know, posting

22:25

your Bitcoin as the collateral to take

22:27

the trade and sell the volatility. Uh

22:29

it's a different business model. What do

22:31

I think? I I think there's thousands of

22:33

companies to get launched. Uh many don't

22:36

succeed. Some will fail. Some get

22:39

launched doing one thing and then they

22:41

evolve into something different. Like

22:44

look at our company. We evolved. You

22:46

know, in fact, you could argue that the

22:47

most successful companies evolve through

22:49

two, three, four stages in their life

22:51

cycle. I mean, Apple didn't start out as

22:53

a phone company for sure. And I think

22:56

Elon maybe he ends up being a robot

22:59

company and not a car company, right, at

23:01

Tesla. So, I think that I think that the

23:03

winners will evolve and they'll find a

23:05

niche. And I think that the ones that

23:07

don't evolve, if if you're just a

23:09

holding company holding Bitcoin, not

23:11

doing anything with it, you know, might

23:12

you get bought up? Yeah, you might get

23:14

you might get bought. And would that be

23:16

good for you? You're a lot better off,

23:18

you know, if you have something people

23:19

want to buy. For example, Sears, you

23:22

know, had a future because they had a

23:23

lot of real estate that somebody wanted

23:25

to own. And if they didn't own the real

23:27

estate, it would have been a much worse

23:29

situation for them. So I so I think that

23:33

uh you're going to see all sorts of

23:35

examples now and and uh presumably

23:40

thousands and thousands of of companies

23:43

get launched and they all do different

23:44

things and we're very embionic early on

23:46

like in the first year two years 50

23:50

years from now right I mean the debate

23:51

will be who's the best Bitcoin backed

23:53

insurance company right but but 20 30 40

23:56

years from now and and that company

23:58

doesn't even exist right now but on the

24:00

other hand what about us. Are they

24:02

opportunities for us? Well, you know,

24:03

they were an opportunity for Strive.

24:05

Strive did the deal with similar and

24:06

they closed it quickly and they were

24:08

able to build their capital base pretty

24:10

rapidly. So, that's you know, we see

24:13

examples of that. There probably will be

24:15

some mergers and acquisitions of other

24:17

companies uh in various space if they

24:20

put together their various assets in a

24:23

synergistic way. Um our our business is

24:27

laser-like monomomaniacally focused on

24:31

one thing right now. Uh we want to make

24:36

stretch S strc the premier credit

24:39

instrument in the digital world. The

24:41

best digital credit in the world and

24:44

maybe the best credit in the world. If

24:46

we can create a product that trades with

24:49

less than, you know, five vault that

24:52

pays you 10% dividend with a stable, you

24:56

know, $100 value and we pay a rock

24:59

dividend. The question is who would want

25:01

that? It's like everybody would want

25:02

that. Why? I mean, why wouldn't you want

25:04

like what's the demand for that? It's

25:06

infinite. Like it so effective. If

25:09

Stretch works, it's the ideal product

25:12

and the company that can create treasury

25:15

credit based on digital capital has the

25:17

ideal business model. And so we we

25:21

generally won't get distracted, right?

25:23

The the number one risk for us is a

25:25

dilutive distraction, right? Everything

25:28

else on our capital structure that that

25:31

undermines the credit stretch, you know,

25:33

is a question mark, right? So you have

25:36

to be thinking about that and then

25:37

anything we might do that looks that

25:39

looks complicated or risky or different

25:44

would in anything that introduces a

25:46

question in the in the mind of the

25:48

stretch investor can we pay the dividend

25:51

that's going to be deemed negative you

25:53

know anything that introduces a question

25:55

in the equity investor's mind can you

25:57

outperform Bitcoin so generally

26:01

generally we're pretty skeptical on

26:03

acquisitions because they take a long

26:04

time And then you might acquire

26:06

something that you didn't want that you

26:08

have to divest and then everybody wants

26:10

to talk about how and why and how long

26:12

it takes and and so I I don't think I

26:16

wouldn't say it's not a good strategy

26:18

for other companies and other investors.

26:21

There are other companies and other

26:22

investors for which it's a great

26:23

opportunity for them and they can make a

26:25

lot of money and they will pursue it and

26:27

God bless them. uh for us we believe

26:31

we've stumbled upon uh maybe the most

26:35

promising product STRC you know after 20

26:39

capital markets transactions and all

26:40

sorts of credit instruments we think we

26:42

found the best one for us and for the

26:44

credit investor and we've and we think

26:47

we found a great business model right

26:49

the treasury company if you can generate

26:51

return of capital dividend scalably and

26:54

scale up the issuance of treasury credit

26:57

you've got may be one of the most

26:59

efficient business models in the world

27:01

and one of the most compelling products

27:03

in the world. So we don't want to do

27:06

anything that would dilute that focus,

27:09

undermine the credit of the balance

27:11

sheet or distract the management team

27:14

from what we see as a once in a lifetime

27:18

opportunity.

27:24

>> Great. Thank you. For the next question,

27:27

I would like to invite Larry Leopard

27:30

from Equity Management Associates.

27:33

>> Yeah. Hi, thank thanks for having me on

27:35

guys. Um, first off, two great things in

27:37

my view came out of the call. One, the

27:39

whole guidance on the STRC rate. I mean,

27:42

that's that's brilliant. Um, really love

27:44

it and it's going to help people like me

27:46

who are buying STRC, you know, is kind

27:49

of um, you know, a solid retirement type

27:52

of asset to understand where it's going.

27:54

I have a question related to that, but

27:55

I'd like to put it to the end. The

27:57

second thing that I thought was really

27:58

important was the notion that we're

28:00

going to upgrade, you're going to

28:01

upgrade and play a leadership role in

28:03

the technical direction of Bitcoin. I

28:05

think that's fabulous and um a great way

28:08

of addressing all the FUD around

28:10

quantum, which I think is probably

28:11

scared off a few of the the bigger

28:14

institutions who are looking at it.

28:15

They're kind of saying, "Hey, who

28:16

controls this whole thing?" Um just back

28:18

to first principles. I want to just kind

28:19

of run through how I look at this and

28:21

see if you as a management team agree.

28:23

Um I'm a value investor. I look for

28:25

asymmetry and uh in my view right now

28:29

Micro Strategy is the most asymmetric

28:31

value investment in the world and most

28:33

people don't understand it. And it's

28:34

it's kind of stunning to me. My partner

28:36

David Foley and I, we did a a model.

28:38

We've done several models and we've

28:40

looked at it and said, you know, if

28:41

Bitcoin stays at $50,000 for four or

28:44

five years, you can't break this

28:46

company. It's it's it's unbreakable. I

28:49

mean the dilution we calculate the

28:51

dilution would maybe be 15 or 20%. So

28:54

the downside case here in our view is is

28:57

really covered you know as a result of

28:59

the fact that the debt's unsecured and

29:00

the the interest rate on it is very very

29:02

low. Some of it's convertible as we all

29:05

know and the preferred is really equity.

29:07

So um to me you know you've got an

29:10

unbelievable situation. I think a lot of

29:12

people listening this call are kind of

29:13

wondering hey what's going on with the

29:14

stock price? What's going on with

29:15

Bitcoin? My view on that is just that

29:17

what's going on with Bitcoin is

29:19

liquidity is really tight and you know

29:22

this is what's going to drive the big

29:23

print at sometime relatively soon and

29:26

it's also what's driving the stock

29:28

market down and Bitcoin has always been

29:30

kind of a leading indicator of where you

29:32

know how much liquidity is out there and

29:34

and so you know things are tight right

29:36

now and you see it you know gold's

29:38

getting hit, silver's getting hit, all

29:39

the sound money assets are getting hit

29:41

but we know the debasement trade is

29:42

alive and well because gold and silver

29:44

have just been on a tear.

29:46

And this reminds me very much of 2020

29:48

when gold and silver led first and

29:49

Bitcoin followed harder. You know,

29:51

Bitcoin went up 6x in October of 2020

29:54

after gold had gone up 45%. You know,

29:57

when Paul pivoted and then co came

29:58

along. So, you know, to me what's going

30:01

to happen here is this thing is going to

30:03

be, you know, a two bagger, five bagger,

30:06

10bagger, and most people don't really

30:08

understand it. And I you know the reason

30:10

that's the case is is kind of

30:14

said where he said you know commodities

30:16

are a very very hard business to invest

30:18

in because they have long cycles and the

30:20

average investor you know who's being

30:22

marked quarter to quarter month to month

30:24

year to year can't show long time

30:26

preference he didn't use those words but

30:28

he was essentially saying the same thing

30:30

which is safe's point and you know if

30:33

you have the long time preference you

30:35

realize this is a commodity that has a

30:36

fixed supply you know the the you know

30:39

the asymmetry it's just it's absolutely

30:41

blowing my mind. So I just want to say

30:44

congrats for all you're doing and I I

30:46

think it's you know a no-brainer that

30:48

this is going to be outstanding upside

30:50

investment. I do have one specific

30:52

question related to the stretch product

30:54

and that is this um you know you're

30:57

going to adjust it. Okay so maybe you

30:59

have to adjust it in a while to get more

31:00

people to buy it. Fine. At some point

31:03

this is going to be a fabulous product.

31:04

Everybody's going to want it. And if you

31:07

kind of set the price at 100, is it

31:09

could it ever adjust down? I mean, I'm

31:11

buying it and I'll probably gift it to

31:12

my kids because the tax basis will be

31:14

zero and I'll never sell it. Um, would

31:17

the be could you think about setting a

31:19

lower boundary on the yield? You know, I

31:22

mean 11% that's attractive. 9 8 7 those

31:25

are all attractive. If it got so

31:27

attractive that the yield on it started

31:29

to go down to 54 321, you know, that

31:32

would be I mean people looking at buying

31:34

it thinking long long term might wonder,

31:36

huh, is there is there a boundary below

31:38

which this thing can fall and we'd be

31:41

better we'd be more comfortable buying

31:42

it if we knew there was such a boundary

31:45

on the yield.

31:48

>> Yeah, I I go ahead.

31:50

>> I can start, Larry. And and and we agree

31:53

with all your points. I think there's a

31:54

a a significant misunderstanding of the

31:57

leverage on the balance sheet and how

31:59

we're going to service our convertible

32:00

debt over time and and these ideas that

32:03

if you know Bitcoin price goes below our

32:05

cost basis that becomes an issue. And as

32:08

I stated, you know, Bitcoin needs to go

32:10

down to $8,000 a coin and sit there for

32:13

5 years up until 2032 before we really

32:16

have a problem uh being able to satisfy

32:19

the convertible note. So, so thank you

32:21

for pointing that out on on on the on on

32:24

on the rate on stretch, right? Uh right

32:27

now, you know, technically the bottom of

32:29

the rate would be sofur, but uh we think

32:32

of the fact that we we get capital from

32:35

stretch, we put it into bitcoin and

32:36

bitcoin is going to go up on average 30%

32:39

a year. So, anything that we pay less

32:41

than call it 20% is accretive to our

32:44

shareholders. So, uh, I don't think it's

32:47

something where you should sit there and

32:48

think that we're going to drive it down

32:49

to sulfur, right? If if stretch price

32:52

goes to 100 and sits at 100, we might

32:55

take it down a couple percentage points,

32:57

but I I don't think, you know, and

32:58

obviously it depends on where silver

33:00

goes, but I don't think it's something

33:01

that someone should think we're going to

33:04

pull the rug out from under folks and

33:06

drive it down to one.

33:07

>> Yeah, I think I think stating that

33:08

publicly to, you know, people who are

33:10

buying stretch would be important just

33:11

so people understand. And if you were to

33:13

say something along the lines of we're

33:15

not going to let it go below a seven or

33:16

something because it's going to get to

33:18

be really popular at some point in time

33:19

and and those of us who are buying it

33:21

are buying it with multi-deade time

33:23

frames, right?

33:24

>> Yeah. Another point to make is we we we

33:28

can't lower the rate more than 25 basis

33:31

points a month. So we're always going to

33:33

be very incremental and we would only

33:37

lower the rate when in such a way that

33:41

we thought it would stay in that zone of

33:43

99 to 101. Like we want to we want to

33:45

keep it targeted 100. So you know you

33:48

you might [clears throat] you might 5

33:50

years from now find out that the

33:52

rational credit spreads that the market

33:55

assigns us or 300 basis points instead

33:58

of 600.

33:59

and that people would like to buy this

34:01

thing at 400 basis points over sulfur

34:04

maybe, but we would very gradually get

34:07

there and we would still expect STRC to

34:10

be trading around 100. And so we're not

34:12

we're we're not looking to do anything

34:16

that is jarring to the price. We want it

34:18

we want the price to be stable. As a

34:21

practical matter, the reason that we

34:22

would lower the dividend rate would be

34:24

we had such an avalanche of demand. and

34:26

we had too much demand and people want

34:29

to buy infinite and we don't want to

34:31

sell infinite because we'll drive the

34:33

BTC rating of STRC down, right? Like

34:37

like if hypothetically someone said, "I

34:39

want to buy a hundred billion dollars of

34:40

STRC tomorrow." You can see how we don't

34:43

want to sell it because right because

34:47

then that's reflexive and that would

34:48

undermine the credit quality and that

34:50

would increase the volatility and that

34:52

you know that kind of works against

34:53

everything. So luckily for us, you know,

34:56

and practically that's not going to

34:57

happen, right? Like, you know, they say,

35:00

you know, it's good that we have time

35:01

because otherwise everything would would

35:03

take place at the same time, right? All

35:06

at once. All at once.

35:07

>> We don't want stuff to happen all at

35:09

once. So, it will happen progressively.

35:11

We'll be very thoughtful about it. Our

35:14

goal is always for it to be extremely

35:16

compelling to to attract tra attract

35:19

capital. And at the point where we feel

35:23

like we've got too much capital, it

35:25

would be a circumstance, Larry, where

35:27

where uh there was massive success of

35:30

STRC and Bitcoin was lagging and and

35:34

MSTR equity premium was lagging and

35:37

there's that weird situation where it's

35:39

it's hard for the company to increase

35:40

its collateral base in order to back the

35:43

credit and then we would say we have too

35:45

much demand for the credit so we need to

35:47

click it down. But if there's over

35:49

demand for the credit,

35:51

>> it would still be pegged at 100 when we

35:53

when we and we take it down 25 basis

35:56

points. And so we're we're going to

35:58

responsibly manage this so as to

36:00

minimize volatility, maximize stability.

36:04

And you know, in all likelihood, it's

36:06

going to be excessively compelling in

36:08

terms of dividend rate for quite a while

36:11

because even though you believe in

36:13

Bitcoin as collateral and I believe in

36:15

Bitcoin as collateral, we've got a lot

36:16

of work to do with credit rating.

36:18

agencies and the Basel rules and

36:20

traditional finance establishment before

36:23

they recognize it as being good

36:25

collateral and and as long as they don't

36:28

then that means probably the spreads are

36:30

going to stay pretty compelling.

36:32

>> Fair enough. Thank you very much. Really

36:34

appreciate it.

36:36

>> Thank you. For [clears throat] the next

36:38

question, can we have Andrew Hart from

36:40

BTI?

36:42

>> Hey, uh thanks for taking my question.

36:43

So, it'd be great to hear some examples

36:45

of some of the doors that have been open

36:48

uh since strategy got a credit rating um

36:50

back in the fall. You know, I think it's

36:52

open potentially opened doors to pension

36:53

funds, insurance companies, and other

36:56

really large institutional investors.

36:57

And you, you know, Michael, before we

36:59

got on this webcast, you said something

37:01

like times today that we're seeing with

37:02

Bitcoin is when people are looking for

37:05

insight and leadership. So, I guess who

37:07

better to ask, right? What is your

37:08

expectation for uh conversations with

37:11

these new potential investors with these

37:13

really large pools of capital? If you

37:15

could also shed some light on how the

37:16

conversations today uh since you've

37:18

gotten that credit rating uh have

37:20

evolved. Thanks.

37:25

>> Sorry, go ahead Andrew.

37:25

>> I was going to start and B please jump

37:27

in. Um look, Andrew, thank you for the

37:29

question. Um I think uh the process with

37:33

the the rating agencies uh is was a uh

37:37

was a was an excellent process. I think

37:39

we've noted that you know we've had a

37:41

credit rating in the past. Um it was

37:44

more based on the legacy business. This

37:45

is the first time a Bitcoin treasury

37:47

company uh with with a a framework

37:50

specific to that uh was rated by a major

37:53

credit agency. Um I think overall um the

37:57

the reaction has been what we had

37:59

expected right like um there is now a a

38:02

public uh profile that investors can

38:04

look to it is opening up um I think

38:07

interest I think uh it's still early

38:09

though right you know I think a lot of

38:12

us that have been in these types of

38:13

markets know that the credit credit

38:14

rating agencies take time uh to develop

38:17

uh I think we noted earlier in the

38:19

presentation that uh we believe we've

38:22

made uh strides since uh the the launch

38:24

of the relaunch of the rating that we'll

38:27

continue to make progress. Um I think uh

38:30

there's more to do in that sense and

38:32

there you know it sort of created a

38:34

little bit of a um a floor so to speak

38:36

because everything we do here will be

38:38

incrementally increasing uh the the

38:41

capital base. It'll um increase our

38:43

ability to um strengthen our balance

38:45

sheet. Um, and so I think in the long

38:48

run uh it may be it may take longer uh

38:51

than it would take uh you know a

38:54

near-term action but uh I think that

38:56

there's possible upside. I think that

38:59

will continue to drive more in large

39:00

institutional demand. Um and to answer

39:03

your question I think that the reaction

39:05

from uh the investor base has been net

39:07

positive. Um and certainly the the cash

39:09

reserve has added on to that as well.

39:12

>> Thanks Andrew.

39:18

>> Do you want to cover the second question

39:20

around just general Bitcoin?

39:23

>> Just restate the question again.

39:26

>> Oh, uh I was wondering how the

39:28

conversations you've had with these

39:30

really large uh pools uh really large

39:33

investors have come along. And then you

39:35

know before we got on you said times

39:36

like this is when people are looking for

39:38

insight and leadership. And so as you

39:40

continue to have those conversations

39:42

with people that are new to Bitcoin, you

39:43

know, what do you tell them in a in in a

39:45

day like today?

39:48

>> Um I I think we've got an unprecedented

39:50

number of invitations to financial

39:52

conferences and and meetings with with

39:55

investors in general. And I think that

39:58

the amount of interest in this topic

40:00

explodes and when the volatility

40:02

explodes, you know, the engagement

40:05

explodes. What what I would tell them is

40:09

is the same. We've kind of said for a

40:11

while, Bitcoin's capital investment,

40:14

your time horizon needs to be minimal

40:16

four years. I would actually say look at

40:19

the moving four year, the simple

40:22

moving 200E average. the 200 week simple

40:25

moving average or the four-year average.

40:28

And I would invest like with a four-year

40:31

DCA, you know, uh, dollar cost averaging

40:35

type approach if you're going to invest

40:37

in Bitcoin. And you really want to have

40:40

the intent to hold the product, hold the

40:42

asset for a decade. And if you can't

40:44

stomach a if you can't wait a decade

40:46

with no cash flow and if you can't stand

40:49

the volatility then I would say uh you

40:52

ought to buy the credit. If you believe

40:55

if you believe in digital assets or

40:57

digital capital or you believe in

40:58

Bitcoin, but you can't stand to wait for

41:01

a decade and take the vault, you should

41:03

buy the credit be and just take the 11%

41:06

tax deferred, you know, with much much

41:10

less volatility and with someone else

41:12

stomaching

41:14

uh the pain for you. Uh and so I think

41:17

it's kind of simple, right? you're you

41:19

either don't believe in Bitcoin at all

41:22

and then you don't want the credit or

41:23

the capital or you know or you believe

41:26

in Bitcoin as a maxi and you want the

41:29

equity because you want 2x Bitcoin or

41:32

you want Bitcoin as uh you know as

41:36

sovereign censorship resistant long-term

41:39

store of value to give to your great

41:40

grandkids you know who may be living in

41:43

a country you don't even live in right

41:44

now and you want to sell custody then

41:46

you buy the Bitcoin or you just think

41:49

all this stuff looks really good, but um

41:52

you need the money back in September,

41:57

then you think about the credit, right?

41:59

And and specifically the treasury credit

42:01

because the other credit instruments are

42:03

too complicated. So, so I would say

42:05

we're we're really at this point

42:08

pitching uh the credit treasury credit

42:12

as the first step in a Bitcoin journey

42:16

for a tra traditional or conventional

42:19

investor who believes in digital assets.

42:23

>> Thank you, Michael.

42:26

>> And we're pitching it to a lot of people

42:27

like we're talking to a lot, right?

42:29

There's a lot of conversations and and

42:33

if anything, right, the volatility right

42:35

here is the kind of the reason why you

42:36

might want to have a product like STRC.

42:39

If you're wondering like what's the

42:40

justification, well, just look at the

42:42

two charts next to each other and you

42:44

figure out why you might want the credit

42:45

instrument.

42:54

>> Great. And for the last question here, I

42:54

would like to invite Dan Hillary from

42:56

Buck.

42:58

Hi Shares, thanks for having me on guys.

43:01

Um, so my question is as follows. The

43:04

deequitization of the convertible notes

43:07

has seemed to be a bit of a headwind for

43:09

the cost of capital across all the

43:10

preferred equities. And if MSTR

43:13

continues to trade below the convertible

43:15

note conversion price, how many months

43:18

before the put date would you guys

43:19

consider refinancing or retiring the

43:22

converts at a discount in order to lower

43:26

digital credit instruments?

43:31

You know, Dan, we went through this in

43:31

2022 during Bitcoin winter and our

43:34

converts were at some point in time

43:35

trading at $35 uh uh you know, each and

43:41

and we

43:42

>> It means 35 cents or 40 cents on the

43:44

dollar.

43:44

>> 35 cents on the dollar. and and

43:47

>> you know we had considered whether it

43:48

made sense to you know call to to buy

43:51

some of those back and and it never

43:53

really made a lot of sense especially if

43:55

you live in a world where you think

43:56

Bitcoin price is going to go up. Um so

43:59

the converts aren't really this big

44:01

overhang for us and and as I mentioned

44:03

you need Bitcoin price to go down to

44:05

$8,000 and sit there for 5 6 years

44:08

before it really becomes a problem. So,

44:11

it's not really something that we think

44:12

about a lot of of whether we're going to

44:14

buy back any of the converts or if we're

44:16

going to do something early with them

44:17

right now.

44:19

>> Yeah, I would say a year before we have

44:23

a put event or a year before we have a

44:26

redemption event, we certainly look at

44:28

it. We look and we look at the

44:30

statistical likelihood of anything and

44:32

then we evaluate whether or not it makes

44:35

sense to refinance or hedge or mitigate

44:39

anything. And if we were to do it, we

44:41

would want to do it 6 months before the

44:45

event took place. So, but but you know,

44:49

right now we're still far out of that

44:52

window and it's not clear there's any

44:53

event. The last time I you know, I

44:56

looked at one of our our puts, you know,

44:58

it was the one that was coming due

45:00

earliest, the the bond was already above

45:03

par and so there is no risk to it. So

45:06

when we get to a certainly when you're

45:08

more than one year out, it's all

45:10

hypothetical worrying about something

45:12

that's unlikely to ever happen. When you

45:14

get to one year out, you have to

45:16

consider whether there's a risk and then

45:18

yeah, we're certainly not going to wait

45:19

till one month before before we deal

45:22

with the risk. We wouldn't wait till the

45:24

last few weeks or the last few months.

45:26

We would probably do it with a few

45:27

quarters buffer at at the latest which

45:30

means we start thinking about a year

45:31

before.

45:42

>> Great. Uh thank you everyone. This

45:42

concludes the Q&A portion of the

45:44

webinar. I would like to thank all the

45:46

guests for their questions and all the

45:48

attendees for tuning in live. We had

45:51

over 3,000 people join us live on Zoom

45:54

webinar, over 4,000 people on YouTube

45:58

live stream and over 180,000 views on X

46:03

liveream.

46:05

Uh so this should be one of the most

46:07

viewed uh earnings call uh in our

46:10

history. So appreciate all your interest

46:12

and curiosity and thank you. I would

46:14

like to now turn the call over to Fong

46:16

for final closing remarks.

46:19

Look, uh, I want to echo everyone's

46:21

thoughts. Thank you for the analysts for

46:23

joining us. Thank you for everybody for

46:25

dialing into the call and listening. Uh,

46:27

and thanks for those who are joining us

46:29

online. I invite you all to join us in

46:31

Las Vegas February 23rd, 25th at

46:34

Strategy World and Bitcoin for

46:36

Corporations. And if we don't see you

46:37

there, we'll see you again in three

46:39

months in our next earnings call. Thanks

46:41

everyone.

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