Analyst Q&A: MSTR Q4 2025 Earnings Call
Bitcoin For Corporations · 2026-02-06 · 46m · View on YouTube →
We are now going to proceed to the
interactive live Q&A section of our
webinar. I would like to welcome all our
Q&A guests and invite them to come on
video. We look forward to hearing your
questions. We will go one at a time and
I will call your names and you can
direct your questions to the management
team. So for the first question, I would
like to invite uh Lance Watenza, our
research analyst from TD.
>> Thank you all for taking the questions
and for the call. Um my question is
since the beginning of the year I can
count three weeks over which your
Bitcoin acquisitions have generated
negative slightly negative but negative
Bitcoin yield. Now I'm all in favor of
buying Bitcoin even when times are
tough. But shouldn't the goal be to
increase Bitcoin per share at all times
rather than just increasing the total
amount of Bitcoin that you that you own?
maybe you could just talk about the
strategy or the thinking that went into
those three particular weeks and what
that could mean going forward.
>> Yeah, we agree with you. Um we uh those
we we don't aim to reproduce those
weeks. the times that we've actually
done dilutive transactions on a Bitcoin
for share basis where um if you go back
to the crypto winner when we you know
when we had to recapitalize some toxic
debt on our balance sheet uh we took out
we took out debt either it was like
asset back loans or senior debt that had
EBITD do covenants that we felt were
crippling the company's growth prospects
and so so uh we didn't do it uh
enthusiastically, but we did it because
over the 10-year time frame, we knew we
needed to remove those toxic elements to
our balance sheet. Um if you look at
these three weeks uh when we took uh
actions that were somewhat diluted, they
all were generally associated with
building up the US dollar reserve. And
we did that in response to analysis and
feedback from the market and and some
reflexive uh uh concerns that we
wouldn't be able to pay the dividend if
uh the equity capital markets close to
us. So we wanted to get ahead of that
and address the credit quality. So the
reason we did it and the short answer is
we do it to improve the creditworthiness
of the company and if we felt that there
was a credit problem we would do it. Um
right now we feel that we've built the
US dollar reserve to the level where we
don't have a credit problem. We're good
for the next few years. We don't have
any of those other forms of debt, the
senior debt or the asset back lending.
So the balance sheet is is in much
better shape today. Going forward, we we
wouldn't, you know, we wouldn't
electively or or programmatically issue
equity to buy Bitcoin if it was going to
decrease Bitcoin per share, right? where
we're where we don't think that's a good
idea, we would only we would only take
those actions when we feel like it's
essential to defend the credit of the
company because if people lose
confidence in the credit then that will
ripple into losing confidence in the
equity and then losing confidence in the
business model in general. So, so, um,
it's a practical consideration.
Uh, but, uh, I don't think I don't think
we expect to see anything, um, of that
magnitude going forward because the
first $2.25 billion of US dollar reserve
was a big move. And just if I could just
get a followup question regarding that
$2.5 billion cash reserve. Um c could
you in theory could you use that if you
chose could you use that to redeem the
billion dollars of converts that are
putable in September of 27?
>> Yeah, we could we could use it for any
corporate purpose. We could use to pay
dividends. We could use it uh to meet um
a credit obligation. We could use it to
pay interest on a loan. We could use it
for whatever.
>> Thank you.
>> Great. Thank you, Lance. For the next
question, I would like to invite Tom Lee
from Funstrat and Bitmind.
>> Uh, hi. Uh, thank you everybody. Uh,
really useful presentation. I took a ton
of notes. Um, but I want to ask you a
two-part question. I apologize. It's two
parts. Um, on slide 53,
you talked about quantum vulnerability
of Bitcoin and
uh, and I apologize, I know it's getting
a little nerdy, but I know a lot of
people have questions about quantum
vulnerability because of course Bitcoin
could upgrade its network, but I know
there's three types of wallets that
remain quantum vulnerable. You know, one
is Satoshi because he used a
payto-public key, you know,
a really old wallet and then anyone
who's sent Bitcoin reveals their public
key. Um, and then as you know the
taproot wallets uh actually are are
somewhat quantum vulnerable. So I think
that's like 25 or 30% of all Bitcoin
wallets out there. So the part one
question is you I know Micro Strategy is
a security expert. You have so much
experience in security. could you give
us some idea of how Bitcoin and the core
developers might think about addressing
uh the quantum vulnerable wallets? But
the second part is that's a really a
small part of the story because there's
4.4 million there's only 4.4 million
wallets that have even $10,000 worth of
Bitcoin which means what whereas there's
almost a billion accounts globally that
have $10,000 of stocks, bonds or cash.
meaning the world hasn't really adopted
Bitcoin yet. And so, you know, as you
think about the rest of this year, could
you give us like what you think are some
milestones or road maps that further
drive Bitcoin adoption which in turn
help the price of Bitcoin?
So with regard to the first the quantum
question, I I don't think it's
appropriate for us to advocate uh a
particular
u solution or a particular approach nor
a particular time frame. I think that
our role is to support all of the
various communities and facilitate the
evolution of consensus about what should
be done, how it should be done, when it
should be done. And I think that uh if
you accelerate those and pressurize
those processes, you end up solving a
bunch of problems that don't exist in a
way that maybe are iatrogenic.
So um we don't have uh a particular
set of uh of policy points that we wish
to advocate right now. Nor do I think
it's really responsible or appropriate
for us to do that. Um I think that uh I
think that that will be emergent uh you
know exactly what should be done when by
the way it's not it's not clear anything
should be done ever. It's it's quite
possible we'll actually pop out. You
remember, you know, the world was going
to, you know, end in climate change,
death, you know,
26 years ago when 26 years went by and
none of those things happened. We were
going to, you know, Bitcoin was going to
boil the ocean, use all the energy on
Earth as late as 2018 and that never
happened.
It's possible that whatever happens in
the quantum domain will actually improve
the security of the Bitcoin network
inadvertently before we have to even
discuss a protocol change. So I I don't
think there's any particular policies uh
to be advocating right now other than to
support all the various communities and
facilitate consensus at the right time
to do the right things. Um
the second topic is is really what are
the catalysts for uh for Bitcoin price
to improve. Look I I think the the
fundamental catalyst
are regulatory support. We have a very
we have the most constructive
constructive set of financial regulators
in the history of the industry right
now. the head of the Fed, the head of
the Treasury, the head of the CFTC, the
head of the SEC, and the White House has
a digital assets ZAR, right? Those five
things are massive bull flags. They're
all very positive and and generally you
would expect that something good will
come probably out of the CFTC or the SEC
as they are constructive about
facilitating financial companies uh to
innovate in the digital asset space.
Right? I I I would been skeptical about
that two years ago. But I think I think
for you to be skeptical about their
support for digital innovation today
would be would be ignoring all the words
from everybody in those positions. And I
think that the second the second
catalyst will be banking adoption. the
formation of the banking credit networks
as as uh the large banks and as as
companies like Schwab they start to
allow you to trade Bitcoin custody cryp
uh Bitcoin borrow against Bitcoin
um they're going to legitimize the asset
and they're going to decrease the
volatility of the asset. They're going
to improve the uh usefulness of the
asset. You know, you're you're aware of
the announcement of the Black Rockck
Bitcoin volatility income fund that came
like about a week ago where they said
they were going to sell volatility or
generate income. And there's a lot of
people that speculate that will decrease
the volatility of Bitcoin and and put
more uh a more stable floor into the
asset. So I think the actions by big
finance, the actions by the big banks
and the actions by the financial
regulators
are the fundamentals. I mean those are
the fundamental things. And if you were
to light a candle and pray, you know, to
the gods of the cryptosphere, you know,
you would say, I want pro- digital
assets regulators. I want pro- digital
assets banks. And I want pro- digital
assets financial innovations like Black
Rockck's bringing to the market like
like we're bringing to the market right
you know like STRC
but fundamentally the industry is going
to move forward because of enlightened
regulation
uh engaged thoughtful banking and then
innovative finance and that's what we're
doing and that's what we see right now.
>> Thank you, Tom. For the next question, I
would like to invite Pete Christensen
from City.
>> Thank you. Uh, good evening. Um,
Michael, I want to talk about uh events
of the last week. On Friday, the
president uh presented his nominee for
next Fed chair, which uh exacerbated
volatility across a number of asset
classes, including Bitcoin. Uh the good
news is uh Kevin Worsh is on the tape uh
noting that uh Bitcoin is is the new
gold. So so so that's good. But I guess
uh my question is uh how would
strategies capital allocation
framework or possibly if it would change
if the next Fed chair is is perceived to
be less independent perhaps maybe more
tolerant of fiscal dominance?
um that may raise Bitcoin prices
shortterm, but longer term it may
introduce increased rate volatility
which may be a challenge on the funding
side. I'm just curious if you have any
perspectives on uh how that might change
the capital allocation framework for
strategy. Thank you.
>> We try to be very reactive to market
signals. So, so for example, when our
equity trades weak, we don't sell it.
when our credit instruments are underper
are trading weak and when the cost of
credit is too high we don't sell them uh
you know the most obvious is STRC if it
trades below 100 we don't sell it so in
in periods where the marketplace loses
confidence in our particular credit
instruments we simply wait and you know
in periods when you know when the MNAV
of the equity explodes to three or three
and a half, we might sell a billion
dollars a day, right? So, when the when
uh the capital markets are enthusiastic
about either the equity or the credit,
we react to them. And you know, it's
it's above our pay grade to set
financial policy. It's even above our
pay grade to interpret like the the
financial policy like sometimes
sometimes the you know the macroeconomy
has one set of numbers and you would
think it's good for Bitcoin but it's bad
for Bitcoin or another time you would
say well if he you know they do this
that should be good for us and it's not
good for us and then other times it's
the opposite. Um, well, I think the nice
thing about our business is we have the
option to do nothing and we have a set
of disciplined capital markets programs.
They they've moved from being uh
discreet where it's like, well, we got
to do a deal this quarter. What's the
deal we're going to do in Q3? Uh, and
we've moved from discrete 144A capital
markets programs to continuous ATM type
programs. And with the ATMs, you know,
if if the market thinks, you know, that
uh the cost of capital on an instrument
like STRF should be 11%, well, we just
don't want to sell it. So, we think it
ought to go to 8%. So when you know when
the market takes ST str S str S str S
str S str S str S str S str S str S str STRF to 140 or or whatever the price it
is that we think is fair then we will be
open to issuing more and when the market
is is bearish on those instruments we
don't and the good thing about the
business is if you think if you think
Bitcoin is going to grow fill in a
number 30% a year then our option is
just do nothing and we're a a company
that's a 4550$50 billion company growing
30% a year. So that's our default. Our
default if you think Bitcoin's only
going to grow 10 or 20% a year, our
default is we just do nothing and we
grow at the rate of Bitcoin and we're
okay with that. And then if we think
that there's something very accretive
that's uh that's going to be good for
the shareholders then we will
participate and we can participate you
know in size a million a day 100 million
a day a billion a day
you know and and the truth is you know
Pete sometimes we get up in the morning
and we s we basically set up our
programs and and we think well
nothing's going to happen today and then
five minutes before the market closes, a
lot of stuff happens like it it can
literally change in 60 seconds and and
again that's that's uh beyond you know
our control. We can't control how the
markets will interpret all these things.
What we can do is set up a rational set
of creditru structures so that we only
issue credit when we think it's in the
best interest of the company and we only
issue equity when it's in the best
interest of the company.
>> Thank you, Michael. Fair and helpful
comments.
>> Thank you, Pete. Uh for the next
question, I would like to invite Lynn
Alden from Lynn Alden Investment
Strategy.
>> Thank you for the opportunity. uh given
the popularity of uh STRC uh my
questions focused on that. Uh the
company established that USD reserve uh
which I think shored up the confidence
of the of these products and make them
more attractive. Uh right now the USD
reserve is um on the website 30 months
of coverage uh compared to the dividends
of the preferred. Uh the other
preferreds are fixed dividends. uh STRC
is a variable dividend which uh
introduces some degree of uncertainty
around how many months of coverage there
are for the the total amount of uh
dividends payable. Um do you have any
kind of views on what you think is an
appropriate minimum uh reserve relative
to to uh months of dividend coverage? Um
or do you have a kind of a maximum that
you'd be willing to pay on a dividend
for uh STRC? Um and then a related
question is uh we are seeing some kind
of early financial products that are uh
out in the market that are looking to
potentially leverage STRC
um given the the goal of low volatility
and and high yield. Um are you are you
monitoring the space for leverage built
on top of that as it as it could
contribute to um spikes of volatility
should there be an issue in in uh the
market? Uh, and do you have any are you
would you encourage that kind of thing
or would you dissuade um leverage from
from building on top of that uh uh
increasingly kind of popular product?
Thank you.
>> I I can start. Lynn, thanks for the
question. Uh first uh we said that we
target two to three years uh of uh
dividend coverage uh with our US dollar
reserve. So we wouldn't want it to go
below two years. I think three years
would be pretty high. Um, and as far as
whether we think there's a cap to the
stretch rate, you know, we're pretty
early on and we're sort of trying to
understand what happens every single
month at the end of the month. And
that's why we have our guidance that we
have, right? It's at 11 and a quarter.
Could we take it to 12 potentially? Uh,
but it's going to be a function of how
do we keep the price within a tight
range right around that $100? And also a
function of of what happens to interest
rates in general. Um, but I don't think
we have a cap right now. We're just
going to have to see how this instrument
plays out over time. Um, so that's the
answer uh on on on stretch overall. Um,
and your second question, remind me.
>> Uh, the second question was around uh
we're seeing kind of early um products
potentially looking to lever it up for
for um other customers. Do do you do you
perceive issues in that? Are you
monitoring it? Uh would you encourage or
or dissuade uh that type of activity? I
think anytime people create products on
top of stretch, right, there's some
products that we've seen like Buck that
have been issued that are they're not
lever products, but they're actually
reducing the volatility down to about
zero. Uh, and they're actually showing
daily acrals as opposed to monthly
acruals. So, I think those are positive.
I think the extent people are going to
build levered products, one, we can't
really, you know, we're not going to
stop them. And I think it leverage adds
liquidity adds a certain extent uh
interest in stretch and we'll see how it
plays out over time but I don't
necessarily think that's a bad thing.
>> Thank you for the clarifications.
>> Okay. So we can move on to the next
question. For that I would like to
invite Mark Bmer from Benchmark.
>> Thank you. Uh a couple of questions. Uh
first of all, um we have seen over the
last year um a tremendous number of new
digital asset treasury companies formed.
Uh many of them focused on accumulating
Bitcoin, others on accumulating other uh
crypto tokens. Um what is your take on
uh how this industry is likely to evolve
in terms of the number of players
whether there's going to be a shakeout
um if there is a shakeout will there be
consolidation and most importantly uh
what could this all mean for strategy uh
as it unfolds are there opportunities uh
for the company uh to take advantage uh
of that dynamic
>> you know I I think every business has to
have an operating model that works that
adds value uh if it's going to grow and
prosper. So uh one one model is just to
provide Bitcoin exposure if people in
the country in question can't get it any
other way. There are a lot of people in
the UK that bought our our stock for
four years because they just couldn't
buy Bitcoin any other way. So if there's
a value proposition, you know, in Brazil
or in, you know, in France or wherever,
then maybe just you can be a simple a
simple Bitcoin holder. I think uh I
think another value proposition is issue
digital credit. And you can see that
Strive and um and MetaPlanet have both
pursued digital credit. If you're good
at it, you know, by the way, you can do
digital credit and not be good at it,
right? If you take on debt you can't pay
back, right? then that that doesn't help
the company, that hurts the company. But
if you're good at digital credit, that
could be another case. You know, a third
a third would be anything that uses
capital, right? So, if these companies,
you know, if they want to generate
Bitcoin yield, they're going to have to
find some way uh to generate a benefit
from the capital, right? You could
underwrite insurance. You could you
could support uh trading or derivatives
trading by posting it as collateral. You
could engage in derivatives trading,
right? You could literally become a, you
know, a public company with a lot of
capital that trades in the digital
derivatives market, you know, posting
your Bitcoin as the collateral to take
the trade and sell the volatility. Uh
it's a different business model. What do
I think? I I think there's thousands of
companies to get launched. Uh many don't
succeed. Some will fail. Some get
launched doing one thing and then they
evolve into something different. Like
look at our company. We evolved. You
know, in fact, you could argue that the
most successful companies evolve through
two, three, four stages in their life
cycle. I mean, Apple didn't start out as
a phone company for sure. And I think
Elon maybe he ends up being a robot
company and not a car company, right, at
Tesla. So, I think that I think that the
winners will evolve and they'll find a
niche. And I think that the ones that
don't evolve, if if you're just a
holding company holding Bitcoin, not
doing anything with it, you know, might
you get bought up? Yeah, you might get
you might get bought. And would that be
good for you? You're a lot better off,
you know, if you have something people
want to buy. For example, Sears, you
know, had a future because they had a
lot of real estate that somebody wanted
to own. And if they didn't own the real
estate, it would have been a much worse
situation for them. So I so I think that
uh you're going to see all sorts of
examples now and and uh presumably
thousands and thousands of of companies
get launched and they all do different
things and we're very embionic early on
like in the first year two years 50
years from now right I mean the debate
will be who's the best Bitcoin backed
insurance company right but but 20 30 40
years from now and and that company
doesn't even exist right now but on the
other hand what about us. Are they
opportunities for us? Well, you know,
they were an opportunity for Strive.
Strive did the deal with similar and
they closed it quickly and they were
able to build their capital base pretty
rapidly. So, that's you know, we see
examples of that. There probably will be
some mergers and acquisitions of other
companies uh in various space if they
put together their various assets in a
synergistic way. Um our our business is
laser-like monomomaniacally focused on
one thing right now. Uh we want to make
stretch S strc the premier credit
instrument in the digital world. The
best digital credit in the world and
maybe the best credit in the world. If
we can create a product that trades with
less than, you know, five vault that
pays you 10% dividend with a stable, you
know, $100 value and we pay a rock
dividend. The question is who would want
that? It's like everybody would want
that. Why? I mean, why wouldn't you want
like what's the demand for that? It's
infinite. Like it so effective. If
Stretch works, it's the ideal product
and the company that can create treasury
credit based on digital capital has the
ideal business model. And so we we
generally won't get distracted, right?
The the number one risk for us is a
dilutive distraction, right? Everything
else on our capital structure that that
undermines the credit stretch, you know,
is a question mark, right? So you have
to be thinking about that and then
anything we might do that looks that
looks complicated or risky or different
would in anything that introduces a
question in the in the mind of the
stretch investor can we pay the dividend
that's going to be deemed negative you
know anything that introduces a question
in the equity investor's mind can you
outperform Bitcoin so generally
generally we're pretty skeptical on
acquisitions because they take a long
time And then you might acquire
something that you didn't want that you
have to divest and then everybody wants
to talk about how and why and how long
it takes and and so I I don't think I
wouldn't say it's not a good strategy
for other companies and other investors.
There are other companies and other
investors for which it's a great
opportunity for them and they can make a
lot of money and they will pursue it and
God bless them. uh for us we believe
we've stumbled upon uh maybe the most
promising product STRC you know after 20
capital markets transactions and all
sorts of credit instruments we think we
found the best one for us and for the
credit investor and we've and we think
we found a great business model right
the treasury company if you can generate
return of capital dividend scalably and
scale up the issuance of treasury credit
you've got may be one of the most
efficient business models in the world
and one of the most compelling products
in the world. So we don't want to do
anything that would dilute that focus,
undermine the credit of the balance
sheet or distract the management team
from what we see as a once in a lifetime
opportunity.
>> Great. Thank you. For the next question,
I would like to invite Larry Leopard
from Equity Management Associates.
>> Yeah. Hi, thank thanks for having me on
guys. Um, first off, two great things in
my view came out of the call. One, the
whole guidance on the STRC rate. I mean,
that's that's brilliant. Um, really love
it and it's going to help people like me
who are buying STRC, you know, is kind
of um, you know, a solid retirement type
of asset to understand where it's going.
I have a question related to that, but
I'd like to put it to the end. The
second thing that I thought was really
important was the notion that we're
going to upgrade, you're going to
upgrade and play a leadership role in
the technical direction of Bitcoin. I
think that's fabulous and um a great way
of addressing all the FUD around
quantum, which I think is probably
scared off a few of the the bigger
institutions who are looking at it.
They're kind of saying, "Hey, who
controls this whole thing?" Um just back
to first principles. I want to just kind
of run through how I look at this and
see if you as a management team agree.
Um I'm a value investor. I look for
asymmetry and uh in my view right now
Micro Strategy is the most asymmetric
value investment in the world and most
people don't understand it. And it's
it's kind of stunning to me. My partner
David Foley and I, we did a a model.
We've done several models and we've
looked at it and said, you know, if
Bitcoin stays at $50,000 for four or
five years, you can't break this
company. It's it's it's unbreakable. I
mean the dilution we calculate the
dilution would maybe be 15 or 20%. So
the downside case here in our view is is
really covered you know as a result of
the fact that the debt's unsecured and
the the interest rate on it is very very
low. Some of it's convertible as we all
know and the preferred is really equity.
So um to me you know you've got an
unbelievable situation. I think a lot of
people listening this call are kind of
wondering hey what's going on with the
stock price? What's going on with
Bitcoin? My view on that is just that
what's going on with Bitcoin is
liquidity is really tight and you know
this is what's going to drive the big
print at sometime relatively soon and
it's also what's driving the stock
market down and Bitcoin has always been
kind of a leading indicator of where you
know how much liquidity is out there and
and so you know things are tight right
now and you see it you know gold's
getting hit, silver's getting hit, all
the sound money assets are getting hit
but we know the debasement trade is
alive and well because gold and silver
have just been on a tear.
And this reminds me very much of 2020
when gold and silver led first and
Bitcoin followed harder. You know,
Bitcoin went up 6x in October of 2020
after gold had gone up 45%. You know,
when Paul pivoted and then co came
along. So, you know, to me what's going
to happen here is this thing is going to
be, you know, a two bagger, five bagger,
10bagger, and most people don't really
understand it. And I you know the reason
that's the case is is kind of
said where he said you know commodities
are a very very hard business to invest
in because they have long cycles and the
average investor you know who's being
marked quarter to quarter month to month
year to year can't show long time
preference he didn't use those words but
he was essentially saying the same thing
which is safe's point and you know if
you have the long time preference you
realize this is a commodity that has a
fixed supply you know the the you know
the asymmetry it's just it's absolutely
blowing my mind. So I just want to say
congrats for all you're doing and I I
think it's you know a no-brainer that
this is going to be outstanding upside
investment. I do have one specific
question related to the stretch product
and that is this um you know you're
going to adjust it. Okay so maybe you
have to adjust it in a while to get more
people to buy it. Fine. At some point
this is going to be a fabulous product.
Everybody's going to want it. And if you
kind of set the price at 100, is it
could it ever adjust down? I mean, I'm
buying it and I'll probably gift it to
my kids because the tax basis will be
zero and I'll never sell it. Um, would
the be could you think about setting a
lower boundary on the yield? You know, I
mean 11% that's attractive. 9 8 7 those
are all attractive. If it got so
attractive that the yield on it started
to go down to 54 321, you know, that
would be I mean people looking at buying
it thinking long long term might wonder,
huh, is there is there a boundary below
which this thing can fall and we'd be
better we'd be more comfortable buying
it if we knew there was such a boundary
on the yield.
>> Yeah, I I go ahead.
>> I can start, Larry. And and and we agree
with all your points. I think there's a
a a significant misunderstanding of the
leverage on the balance sheet and how
we're going to service our convertible
debt over time and and these ideas that
if you know Bitcoin price goes below our
cost basis that becomes an issue. And as
I stated, you know, Bitcoin needs to go
down to $8,000 a coin and sit there for
5 years up until 2032 before we really
have a problem uh being able to satisfy
the convertible note. So, so thank you
for pointing that out on on on the on on
on the rate on stretch, right? Uh right
now, you know, technically the bottom of
the rate would be sofur, but uh we think
of the fact that we we get capital from
stretch, we put it into bitcoin and
bitcoin is going to go up on average 30%
a year. So, anything that we pay less
than call it 20% is accretive to our
shareholders. So, uh, I don't think it's
something where you should sit there and
think that we're going to drive it down
to sulfur, right? If if stretch price
goes to 100 and sits at 100, we might
take it down a couple percentage points,
but I I don't think, you know, and
obviously it depends on where silver
goes, but I don't think it's something
that someone should think we're going to
pull the rug out from under folks and
drive it down to one.
>> Yeah, I think I think stating that
publicly to, you know, people who are
buying stretch would be important just
so people understand. And if you were to
say something along the lines of we're
not going to let it go below a seven or
something because it's going to get to
be really popular at some point in time
and and those of us who are buying it
are buying it with multi-deade time
frames, right?
>> Yeah. Another point to make is we we we
can't lower the rate more than 25 basis
points a month. So we're always going to
be very incremental and we would only
lower the rate when in such a way that
we thought it would stay in that zone of
99 to 101. Like we want to we want to
keep it targeted 100. So you know you
you might [clears throat] you might 5
years from now find out that the
rational credit spreads that the market
assigns us or 300 basis points instead
of 600.
and that people would like to buy this
thing at 400 basis points over sulfur
maybe, but we would very gradually get
there and we would still expect STRC to
be trading around 100. And so we're not
we're we're not looking to do anything
that is jarring to the price. We want it
we want the price to be stable. As a
practical matter, the reason that we
would lower the dividend rate would be
we had such an avalanche of demand. and
we had too much demand and people want
to buy infinite and we don't want to
sell infinite because we'll drive the
BTC rating of STRC down, right? Like
like if hypothetically someone said, "I
want to buy a hundred billion dollars of
STRC tomorrow." You can see how we don't
want to sell it because right because
then that's reflexive and that would
undermine the credit quality and that
would increase the volatility and that
you know that kind of works against
everything. So luckily for us, you know,
and practically that's not going to
happen, right? Like, you know, they say,
you know, it's good that we have time
because otherwise everything would would
take place at the same time, right? All
at once. All at once.
>> We don't want stuff to happen all at
once. So, it will happen progressively.
We'll be very thoughtful about it. Our
goal is always for it to be extremely
compelling to to attract tra attract
capital. And at the point where we feel
like we've got too much capital, it
would be a circumstance, Larry, where
where uh there was massive success of
STRC and Bitcoin was lagging and and
MSTR equity premium was lagging and
there's that weird situation where it's
it's hard for the company to increase
its collateral base in order to back the
credit and then we would say we have too
much demand for the credit so we need to
click it down. But if there's over
demand for the credit,
>> it would still be pegged at 100 when we
when we and we take it down 25 basis
points. And so we're we're going to
responsibly manage this so as to
minimize volatility, maximize stability.
And you know, in all likelihood, it's
going to be excessively compelling in
terms of dividend rate for quite a while
because even though you believe in
Bitcoin as collateral and I believe in
Bitcoin as collateral, we've got a lot
of work to do with credit rating.
agencies and the Basel rules and
traditional finance establishment before
they recognize it as being good
collateral and and as long as they don't
then that means probably the spreads are
going to stay pretty compelling.
>> Fair enough. Thank you very much. Really
appreciate it.
>> Thank you. For [clears throat] the next
question, can we have Andrew Hart from
BTI?
>> Hey, uh thanks for taking my question.
So, it'd be great to hear some examples
of some of the doors that have been open
uh since strategy got a credit rating um
back in the fall. You know, I think it's
open potentially opened doors to pension
funds, insurance companies, and other
really large institutional investors.
And you, you know, Michael, before we
got on this webcast, you said something
like times today that we're seeing with
Bitcoin is when people are looking for
insight and leadership. So, I guess who
better to ask, right? What is your
expectation for uh conversations with
these new potential investors with these
really large pools of capital? If you
could also shed some light on how the
conversations today uh since you've
gotten that credit rating uh have
evolved. Thanks.
>> Sorry, go ahead Andrew.
>> I was going to start and B please jump
in. Um look, Andrew, thank you for the
question. Um I think uh the process with
the the rating agencies uh is was a uh
was a was an excellent process. I think
we've noted that you know we've had a
credit rating in the past. Um it was
more based on the legacy business. This
is the first time a Bitcoin treasury
company uh with with a a framework
specific to that uh was rated by a major
credit agency. Um I think overall um the
the reaction has been what we had
expected right like um there is now a a
public uh profile that investors can
look to it is opening up um I think
interest I think uh it's still early
though right you know I think a lot of
us that have been in these types of
markets know that the credit credit
rating agencies take time uh to develop
uh I think we noted earlier in the
presentation that uh we believe we've
made uh strides since uh the the launch
of the relaunch of the rating that we'll
continue to make progress. Um I think uh
there's more to do in that sense and
there you know it sort of created a
little bit of a um a floor so to speak
because everything we do here will be
incrementally increasing uh the the
capital base. It'll um increase our
ability to um strengthen our balance
sheet. Um, and so I think in the long
run uh it may be it may take longer uh
than it would take uh you know a
near-term action but uh I think that
there's possible upside. I think that
will continue to drive more in large
institutional demand. Um and to answer
your question I think that the reaction
from uh the investor base has been net
positive. Um and certainly the the cash
reserve has added on to that as well.
>> Thanks Andrew.
>> Do you want to cover the second question
around just general Bitcoin?
>> Just restate the question again.
>> Oh, uh I was wondering how the
conversations you've had with these
really large uh pools uh really large
investors have come along. And then you
know before we got on you said times
like this is when people are looking for
insight and leadership. And so as you
continue to have those conversations
with people that are new to Bitcoin, you
know, what do you tell them in a in in a
day like today?
>> Um I I think we've got an unprecedented
number of invitations to financial
conferences and and meetings with with
investors in general. And I think that
the amount of interest in this topic
explodes and when the volatility
explodes, you know, the engagement
explodes. What what I would tell them is
is the same. We've kind of said for a
while, Bitcoin's capital investment,
your time horizon needs to be minimal
four years. I would actually say look at
the moving four year, the simple
moving 200E average. the 200 week simple
moving average or the four-year average.
And I would invest like with a four-year
DCA, you know, uh, dollar cost averaging
type approach if you're going to invest
in Bitcoin. And you really want to have
the intent to hold the product, hold the
asset for a decade. And if you can't
stomach a if you can't wait a decade
with no cash flow and if you can't stand
the volatility then I would say uh you
ought to buy the credit. If you believe
if you believe in digital assets or
digital capital or you believe in
Bitcoin, but you can't stand to wait for
a decade and take the vault, you should
buy the credit be and just take the 11%
tax deferred, you know, with much much
less volatility and with someone else
stomaching
uh the pain for you. Uh and so I think
it's kind of simple, right? you're you
either don't believe in Bitcoin at all
and then you don't want the credit or
the capital or you know or you believe
in Bitcoin as a maxi and you want the
equity because you want 2x Bitcoin or
you want Bitcoin as uh you know as
sovereign censorship resistant long-term
store of value to give to your great
grandkids you know who may be living in
a country you don't even live in right
now and you want to sell custody then
you buy the Bitcoin or you just think
all this stuff looks really good, but um
you need the money back in September,
then you think about the credit, right?
And and specifically the treasury credit
because the other credit instruments are
too complicated. So, so I would say
we're we're really at this point
pitching uh the credit treasury credit
as the first step in a Bitcoin journey
for a tra traditional or conventional
investor who believes in digital assets.
>> Thank you, Michael.
>> And we're pitching it to a lot of people
like we're talking to a lot, right?
There's a lot of conversations and and
if anything, right, the volatility right
here is the kind of the reason why you
might want to have a product like STRC.
If you're wondering like what's the
justification, well, just look at the
two charts next to each other and you
figure out why you might want the credit
instrument.
>> Great. And for the last question here, I
would like to invite Dan Hillary from
Buck.
Hi Shares, thanks for having me on guys.
Um, so my question is as follows. The
deequitization of the convertible notes
has seemed to be a bit of a headwind for
the cost of capital across all the
preferred equities. And if MSTR
continues to trade below the convertible
note conversion price, how many months
before the put date would you guys
consider refinancing or retiring the
converts at a discount in order to lower
digital credit instruments?
You know, Dan, we went through this in
2022 during Bitcoin winter and our
converts were at some point in time
trading at $35 uh uh you know, each and
and we
>> It means 35 cents or 40 cents on the
dollar.
>> 35 cents on the dollar. and and
>> you know we had considered whether it
made sense to you know call to to buy
some of those back and and it never
really made a lot of sense especially if
you live in a world where you think
Bitcoin price is going to go up. Um so
the converts aren't really this big
overhang for us and and as I mentioned
you need Bitcoin price to go down to
$8,000 and sit there for 5 6 years
before it really becomes a problem. So,
it's not really something that we think
about a lot of of whether we're going to
buy back any of the converts or if we're
going to do something early with them
right now.
>> Yeah, I would say a year before we have
a put event or a year before we have a
redemption event, we certainly look at
it. We look and we look at the
statistical likelihood of anything and
then we evaluate whether or not it makes
sense to refinance or hedge or mitigate
anything. And if we were to do it, we
would want to do it 6 months before the
event took place. So, but but you know,
right now we're still far out of that
window and it's not clear there's any
event. The last time I you know, I
looked at one of our our puts, you know,
it was the one that was coming due
earliest, the the bond was already above
par and so there is no risk to it. So
when we get to a certainly when you're
more than one year out, it's all
hypothetical worrying about something
that's unlikely to ever happen. When you
get to one year out, you have to
consider whether there's a risk and then
yeah, we're certainly not going to wait
till one month before before we deal
with the risk. We wouldn't wait till the
last few weeks or the last few months.
We would probably do it with a few
quarters buffer at at the latest which
means we start thinking about a year
before.
>> Great. Uh thank you everyone. This
concludes the Q&A portion of the
webinar. I would like to thank all the
guests for their questions and all the
attendees for tuning in live. We had
over 3,000 people join us live on Zoom
webinar, over 4,000 people on YouTube
live stream and over 180,000 views on X
liveream.
Uh so this should be one of the most
viewed uh earnings call uh in our
history. So appreciate all your interest
and curiosity and thank you. I would
like to now turn the call over to Fong
for final closing remarks.
Look, uh, I want to echo everyone's
thoughts. Thank you for the analysts for
joining us. Thank you for everybody for
dialing into the call and listening. Uh,
and thanks for those who are joining us
online. I invite you all to join us in
Las Vegas February 23rd, 25th at
Strategy World and Bitcoin for
Corporations. And if we don't see you
there, we'll see you again in three
months in our next earnings call. Thanks
everyone.