SaylorCorpus

Raoul Pal & Michael Saylor: BTC, Regulation & The SEC

Real Vision Finance · 2022-04-05 · 1h 33m · View on YouTube →

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michael good to get back my friend

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thanks for having me you know it's been

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quite a tumultuous time since we both

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first spoke i know we've spoken again i

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think at the

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crypto gathering but on the platform we

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haven't spoken for a long time and that

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kind of interview changed a lot of

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people's lives i think

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yeah it was interesting time then

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yeah what was bitcoin like fifteen

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thousand or something it was like

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teens then yeah that was that was before

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we started to see all of the advances

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and the buys by the other companies so

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what i'd love to dig in to start with uh

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since then what are your learnings what

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have you learned about the whole space

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because as we all know this is a kind of

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hugely evolving situation and we kind of

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are figuring things out as we go so what

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didn't you know then that you kind of

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know now

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well i i mean i think in every month for

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the past 13 months there have been

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positive developments uh

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that give us more confidence in bitcoin

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the the result of the election was a

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positive development

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the regulatory regime i think it's a

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i think uh we we had zero public

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companies holding bitcoin before

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microstrategy and now there's like 25

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maybe by the end of this year we'll have

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about a dozen bitcoin miners that have

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come public

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and if you look at uh if you look at the

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success of the miners like uh marathon

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and riots and i think i just read

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a few days ago that hud 8 is doing a

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secondary offering

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you've got uh you know you've got spacks

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on the work from terawolf you've got

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core scientific coming public

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you've had coinbase come public right

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since we last spoke

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you've seen coinbase not just come

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public in a billion dollar ipo

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coinbase also brought a billion dollar

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convertible offering to the market

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and then just a couple of days ago they

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brought a 1.5 billion dollar junk bond

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offering to the market

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and they upsized it to 2 billion

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and they raised that money

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3 and a half you know a blended rate of

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three and a half percent interest

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so you know what i've i've said from the

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beginning is

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it's important that we carve a channel

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between

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the ocean of traditional assets

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and the crypto pond

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right

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and the ocean of traditional assets is a

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hundred trillion dollars worth of of

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which is yielding nothing on a real

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basis

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and um and it's it's whatever 50

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trillion 80 trillion dollars worth of

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global equity

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and it's hundreds of trillions of

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dollars worth of uh commercial property

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and residential property

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and it's 80 trillion dollars worth of

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cash and cash equivalents and things

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like that

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and the key to carving that channel is

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the public markets

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and so in a world where there are no

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publicly traded companies no listed

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registered companies

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that can actually

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cross the chasm

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then the flow of capital into the entire

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industry is just retail

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and what we've seen is a rotation

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right i mean if you'd ask who's driving

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the industry

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a year ago you would have said retail

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investors with 10 20 30 125 x leverage

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on an offshore exchange

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and if you'd ask the question who's

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driving the industry today

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well it's a it's a hodgepodge of a lot

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of different players i mean you've still

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got you know the offshore exchanges but

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they've allowed that they will back down

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to 20x leverage

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you know to be more conservative

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so they're i mean they're

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there's no doubt that offshore

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crypto leverage money is is in the

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system i think it drives volatility

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in my opinion more than it drives

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sustainability

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if you want to see bitcoin go to 10

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million dollars a coin

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then it won't come from

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125x or 20x offshore levered

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contracts and traders it will come from

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insurance companies

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and uh and macro hedge funds that have

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capital a hundred billion dollars of

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capital and they just allocate five

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percent of it to bitcoin forever

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and when you start getting five percent

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allocations forever

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then uh then you'll start to build a

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monetary base

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and a capital base that will drive the

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industry so

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i i think in general

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the the bullish developments of the past

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12 months

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have been institutional adoption of

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bitcoin and uh and that has come in the

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form of the companies the the squares

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the teslas the micro strategies the

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marathons the riots of the world that

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are actually in the space

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i i think that

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the second thing that's that i've been a

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a big proponent of a big cheerleader of

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is if you're gonna be in the bitcoin

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mining business

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then you're naturally long bitcoin and

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if you're naturally long bitcoin

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you it's inconsistent to ever sell it so

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if you're a bitcoin miner and bitcoin

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goes to zero your business is worth zero

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and if bitcoin goes up

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and you sold your bitcoin your business

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is worth 20 of what it would have been

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worth

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so if you really are bitcoin miner

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you're long bitcoin which means you

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huddle all the bitcoin and so at this

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point i think you see

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uh uh an emerging consensus in the past

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12 months that if you're a bitcoin miner

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you should never sell it

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okay now that's only consistent with the

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idea of bitcoin miners all coming public

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in the north american markets

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if you're a chinese bitcoin miner you

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didn't have the capital markets to not

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sell it you have to dump it on the

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market right and the narrative was

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always oh the miners are dumping they

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have to sell their bitcoin right watch

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the miners and if you're a bitcoin miner

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ral in

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europe

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or you know if you were trading on the

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canadian stock exchange or the european

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stock exchange if you dig a little bit

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deeper you'll find that those companies

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had liquidity of like 2 million dollars

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a day

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a million dollars of trading a day 5

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million a day on a good day

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if you look at the liquidity and

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marathon and riot

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400 million a day

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250 million a day incredible okay so

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wake up call

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you know you move from a cash business

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to a you know to a small uh to the to

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the secondary public markets

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to the primary public markets when you

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move to the primary public markets let's

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take microstrategy microstrategies

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microstrategy had a full market

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capitalization of a billion dollars uh

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before we you know in august of last

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year with 500 million in cash

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and uh

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we've had days where we traded a billion

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dollars worth of equity

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now we have 500 million in liquidity a

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okay so

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what is that telling you

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right the answer is

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is as the companies in the space come

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public and as they migrate

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to the to the capital markets with the

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greatest amount of capital

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you know if you can raise equity capital

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you know at a high multiple that's uh

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that's cheap capital if you can raise

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convertible debt

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you know since we talked microstrategy

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did a 650 million dollar debt offering

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and paid 75 basis points but

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then we followed up with a 1 billion 50

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million dollar debt offering and paid

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interest

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and then we followed up with a senior

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debt offering

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and we paid six and an eighth

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on just junk debt there's nobody in the

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space that thinks that bitcoin isn't

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going up six percent a year no

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nobody

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so i you know the issue is

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do you know how much i've actually how

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much capital i've invested in bitcoin at

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this point well no

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three billion

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three hundred

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thirty five million dollars

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that's pretty much okay so

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one person yeah

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but i didn't have 3 billion 335 million

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dollars in my piggy bank when we last

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spoke yeah

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what happens if more than one person

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does this row

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how many people does it take right and

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the answer is you need public entities

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and they need to be credit worthy and

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they need to be

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able to file a registration statement

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you know if you can file a registration

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statement you can tap the fixed income

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markets you can tap the convertible debt

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market

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you can tap

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the the equity markets

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and as you do that that capital becomes

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permanent capital

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right because

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by the way there there are some

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companies that can't own uh digital

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property they can't own the underlying

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property that is bitcoin

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like if i if i have 10 billion dollars

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in a um in a fixed income fund took me

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30 years to establish my relationships

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with my limited partners i've got a

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charter i have a charge i can go and buy

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fixed income right now my fixed income

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instruments are yielding two percent or

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two and a half or three percent

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or i can buy micro strategy yielding six

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percent it looks like a pretty fat

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coupon to me

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well we yeah we had lots of firms that

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gave us 50 million dollar orders

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after one conference call rel

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you know we did that entire deal in one

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one day

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no one on ones

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one conference call 130 firms on the

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phone

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okay i'll give you a 50 million dollar

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order i'll give you a 25 million dollar

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order i'll give you a 100 million dollar

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order

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and um

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why do they do that well i mean you get

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the moody's credit rating you get the s

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p credit rating you're a public company

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you package a security right a

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derivative

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of of a crypto asset called bitcoin it's

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a bitcoin bond

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and you put it out there and and they

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can buy that thing

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what what we've seen over the past 12

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months is we've seen the creation of

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public securities

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a lot of people can buy you know 500

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million dollars worth of marathon stock

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or hundred million dollars worth of a

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bitcoin mining stock but they can't buy

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the bitcoin yeah they can buy the

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convert they can buy the equity they can

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buy the junk debt

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they can but they can't buy the bitcoin

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and of course people in the crypto

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industry the crypto traders they don't

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understand why right now like there's

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still a group of people that think oh

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well you need to buy it and and put it

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in cold storage and keep your keys which

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it's it's uh

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you know what what i call it an

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ideologically pure

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approach

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to the industry which works for a subset

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of people

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but when i'm talking to a guy that runs

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a two billion dollar portfolio

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if he went to his boss and said i want

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to buy 25 million dollars worth of

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bitcoin and hold my private keys he

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would get you know between laughed and

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fired right that's not happening in a

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thousand years no matter how hard on the

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other hand the guy can go like

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okay so yeah this is good so what was

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the interest rate again six percent okay

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i'll take 25 million of that next he's

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got another deal did the next day

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i think that what we're seeing is the

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maturing

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of the industry the maturing of the

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asset class

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when jp morgan and morgan stanley start

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started offering uh bitcoin funds like

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the nydig back funds and the galaxy

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backed funds that was a big

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uh endorsement a big step forward and i

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think we got what wells fargo

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we've got morgan stanley we've got jp

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morgan

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they've all moved to offer those funds

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that was a big deal and then i think

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that when the etf comes

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you know right now we've got etfs in

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canada right i don't know if you saw

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fidelity just went before the sec

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this is fidelity this is fidelity for

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the last 60 years they have like 10

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trillion dollars of assets under

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management and there are companies

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that have been doing business with them

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for 50 years or 30 years fidelity goes

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in front of the sec

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and they give a 20-page presentation on

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why bitcoin is mature and why it's time

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to approve a bitcoin etp in the united

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states

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and there's you know there's a lot of

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institutions that they will take 10

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million chunks and 50 million dollar

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chunks of this stuff once there is an

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etp of sorts

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and uh roll the clock back 18 months

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none of this the other thing that you

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have championed is talking to the

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corporates

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and it's not been as easy

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as we thought you know because of

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accounting rules talk people through a

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bit about that learning because you've

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spoken to a ton you've helped them

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you've given them all of the information

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that they could possibly need but it's

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still a slow process right

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you know to be clear i think there are

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two structural catalysts that will drive

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an acceleration of the industry and a

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bitcoin in particular one will be uh the

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the availability of broad-based etps and

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the u.s capital markets that will be a

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big one

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and we're watching that right now it's a

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process the second will be the

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normalization

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of uh of accounting for bitcoin as a

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financial asset

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right now bitcoin is uh an indefinite

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intangible asset um

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when uh when we roll the clock back 24

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months you couldn't find a publicly

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traded company that had two million

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dollars of this stuff on their balance

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sheet so if you're a bunch of

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accountants sitting around analyzing it

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you would say there's there's no

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compelling need

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right to normalize this that no one's

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got a hundred million dollars of this

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stuff

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right

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there's a hundred trillion dollars of of

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credit instruments and there's two

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million dollars of bitcoin so i don't

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think we're gonna

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focus on this and i understand that but

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indefinite intangible accounting

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treatment says

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you have you can mark it down and you

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and you have to mark it down to the

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lowest bid you can find on on the

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exchange at any minute of the day since

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the beginning of when you own the asset

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and you can never mark it up again

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so that's a negative right it's a

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one-way ratchet function but it's it's

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worse than a one-way ratchet function

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it's like i bought a collection of

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baseball cards for a million bucks and i

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have to go to everybody i see at a party

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for the rest of my life and ask them if

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they'll buy my baseball card collection

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for a number and if they tell me they'll

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give me a thousand dollars i have to

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mark the baseball card collection down

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from a million dollars to a thousand

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dollars

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and if someone else if bill gates offers

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me a billion dollars for the baseball

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card collection i'm still carrying it on

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my books as a thousand dollars

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so it's it's prejudicial hostile you

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accounting treatment and um

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that of course is sub-optimal there's

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another sub-optimal thing about it

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which is when you do mark it down you

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have to run it through your p l as an

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operating loss

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it's not even a below the line uh

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you know it's a non-cash you know it's a

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non-cash investment cost in theory but

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per indefinite and intangible per

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indefinite intangible

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if facebook buys 50 billion of bitcoin

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and it trades down ten percent and then

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it trades up a hundred percent instead

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of holding a hundred billion dollars of

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assets they're showing 40

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and then in the next you know quarter

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they have a 10 billion dollar operating

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loss against their 10 billion dollar you

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know gain so they make no money in the

0:17:07

even though they made

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50 billion dollars in the year okay so

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what does that mean well

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look if you're a pure play like

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microstrategy and your investors

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understand we have 114 000 bitcoin

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you ignore all the rest you multiply 114

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by 47 000 and change you're like oh they

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have five and a half billion dollars

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worth of bitcoin

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okay and if it doubles they'll have 11

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billion

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and you divide the number of shares into

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that and you come to a conclusion about

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what you think the company's worth

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okay that's that's wonderful but if

0:17:42

you're running apple computer or

0:17:44

facebook or google and you've got a

0:17:47

pristine p l

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and you've got a pristine balance sheet

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and if you're a conventional cfo

0:17:53

you would think well like i've i have a

0:17:55

perfect piano and a perfect balance

0:17:56

sheet and if i put this on the balance

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sheet it's going to obscure the p l and

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i'm secret pro formas

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and it's going to obscure the balance

0:18:04

sheet and now it's another set of pro

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formas and now i'm going to go from

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telling everyone that i made 37 billion

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last year with 120 billion in assets

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to something hyper complicated it takes

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a half an hour to parse

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and most of them are conventional

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traditional investors they don't want to

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spend the time on it

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the warren buffets of the world by the

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way like he's totally fine owning apple

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stock and coke stock on his p l but he

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marks at the market every quarter

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right whereas uh in this particular case

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bitcoin critics you never hear a critic

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say i spent 100 hours studying this and

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let me break down my 13 concerns

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and you never hear a critic say i spent

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a thousand hours studying all this and i

0:18:50

looked at i took the course and i read

0:18:52

all the books and i listened to what

0:18:54

ralph said i looked listen to what

0:18:55

sailor said and here's my 92 point

0:18:58

rebuttal you never hear that what you

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hear is somebody asked me what i thought

0:19:05

i didn't really know much so i said well

0:19:07

i don't understand it tulips i don't you

0:19:09

know whatever quick response

0:19:12

so uninformed pushback now

0:19:15

investors normally take the path to

0:19:16

least resistance

0:19:18

so i i think the current and definite

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intangible accounting treatment is an

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overhang

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if bitcoin would go it'll probably go to

0:19:26

500 000 regardless

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but if you wanted to go to 5 million a

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coin or 10 million a coin

0:19:33

right the way you get to millions of

0:19:35

dollars of bitcoin is is you start to

0:19:38

market the market and you and you

0:19:41

treat it

0:19:42

at least at parity withholding

0:19:46

apple stock or coca-cola stock

0:19:48

and i think that i think that that

0:19:50

consensus is building in the marketplace

0:19:53

even amongst uh if you look right now

0:19:55

what's going on we have briefed the

0:19:58

regulators

0:20:00

right uh multiple times

0:20:02

we've also

0:20:03

we've gone in front of

0:20:05

uh i think 18 different entities have

0:20:08

gone in front of fasb this has become an

0:20:09

issue

0:20:11

they're in the pro they're in a review

0:20:12

process right now

0:20:14

they've actually asking for comment from

0:20:16

the community i think i'll probably

0:20:18

tweet something out on that in the next

0:20:19

couple of days if not if not in the next

0:20:22

day or two asking people to opine

0:20:25

and uh i think they've been they've

0:20:27

received briefings from institutional

0:20:29

investors from corporations from from

0:20:31

other accounting firms the like

0:20:34

and i'm confident at some point they'll

0:20:37

normalize it as a

0:20:38

as a financial asset i don't i can't

0:20:41

tell you whether it's a this year thing

0:20:43

or in two years or three years but

0:20:46

but you know that there's no real

0:20:49

compelling reason

0:20:51

to treat it

0:20:53

worse than you would treat baseball if i

0:20:56

bought baseball cards ralph it would be

0:20:57

better accounting treatment

0:21:00

if i just went and i bought like a bunch

0:21:02

of artwork and picassos

0:21:05

at an auction

0:21:06

it would be better accounting treatment

0:21:08

than buying bitcoin so so

0:21:11

irony is when the actual is the opposite

0:21:13

of the literal

0:21:15

and in actuality bitcoin is more

0:21:17

transparent

0:21:19

right as collateral as you've said

0:21:23

than uh blocks of stock and and

0:21:26

certainly it's a lot more transparent

0:21:28

than a lot of other illiquid assets

0:21:31

like buying timberland or a building

0:21:35

or or the like

0:21:39

at some point i think people will start

0:21:41

to realize that there's a rational way

0:21:43

to account for on a p l

0:21:46

on a balance sheet and

0:21:48

at the end of the period you probably

0:21:49

should market the market and if you're

0:21:51

up it's an investment gain and if you're

0:21:53

down it's an investment loss yeah and

0:21:55

you've been championing this by just

0:21:57

using the word property more trying to

0:21:59

anchor people on thinking of it as a as

0:22:01

a digital property is that what you're

0:22:03

trying to do there to get people to

0:22:04

start thinking of it in those terms

0:22:07

i i think that there's three metaphors

0:22:09

for bitcoin and i think one metaphor is

0:22:12

digital property

0:22:15

we're demonetizing the monetary premium

0:22:18

and your commercial real estate your

0:22:20

residential real estate your gold your

0:22:22

silver your commodities

0:22:24

there's a lot of things that have been

0:22:25

monetized right i mean in canada they've

0:22:27

got the current example where the prime

0:22:29

minister thinks the foreigners have

0:22:31

monetized

0:22:33

all the houses in canada so they cost so

0:22:35

much that nobody can afford a house

0:22:39

and the monetary inflationary regime

0:22:41

that we've seen for the past who knows

0:22:44

how many years uh you've seen monetary

0:22:46

premiums flow to all sorts of other

0:22:48

properties it's pretty obvious people

0:22:50

monetized da vinci's and picassos right

0:22:53

like artwork has become

0:22:55

monetary instruments as well

0:22:58

and um

0:23:00

the problem with monetizing

0:23:02

uh things with utility value

0:23:05

is if i monetize houses in tokyo no mere

0:23:09

mortal can ever afford to buy a house in

0:23:11

tokyo and that happened back in the 90s

0:23:14

right starting in 1990 the bank of japan

0:23:17

pumped so much money in the economy that

0:23:19

tokyo real estate was

0:23:21

obscene the same thing happened in new

0:23:23

york city where you know 10 million

0:23:25

dollars will buy you 4 000 square foot

0:23:27

apartment

0:23:28

well how does somebody making 300 000 a

0:23:31

year or 100 000 a year

0:23:34

live right you've monetized that uh that

0:23:37

asset so

0:23:39

so there's a problem with monetizing

0:23:41

those things the ideal thing to monetize

0:23:43

is is an instrument that has no utility

0:23:46

value which is what bitcoin is so

0:23:49

digital property is is the ideal

0:23:52

property it's the most desirable

0:23:54

property in space and time bitcoin is

0:23:57

the dominant digital property network

0:23:59

it's the most secure it has the most

0:24:01

durability it has the it's the most

0:24:03

decentralized

0:24:05

so therefore if you said to me where do

0:24:07

i put my billion dollars

0:24:10

such that any rich person on earth will

0:24:12

want it

0:24:13

and any rich person in the next hundred

0:24:15

years will want it bitcoin

0:24:19

if you buy a billion dollars of

0:24:20

buildings in new york city billionaires

0:24:23

in beijing can't use them

0:24:26

and and when the mayor of new york city

0:24:28

enjoins you or impairs you from evicting

0:24:31

your tenants

0:24:32

or taxes you're building

0:24:34

you can't pick it up and move it

0:24:37

to monaco or singapore so a billion

0:24:40

dollars of property in new york

0:24:43

or a billion dollars of land in kansas

0:24:45

or a billion dollars of houses in

0:24:48

vancouver

0:24:50

don't represent as high a quality

0:24:52

property as a billion dollars of virtual

0:24:54

bitcoin

0:24:56

because bitcoin can be moved at the

0:24:57

speed of light anywhere on earth that's

0:25:00

the first check the second check is

0:25:03

if you have to hold it a hundred years a

0:25:05

building doesn't have a hundred year

0:25:07

life span

0:25:08

the rockefeller centers it's get or

0:25:10

another way to say it's got a

0:25:11

maintenance charge you have to reinvest

0:25:13

you know three to five percent a year

0:25:16

every year for a hundred years in order

0:25:18

to maintain a building and even if you

0:25:20

do that name one building in new york

0:25:22

city that's 150 years old it's

0:25:24

commercially viable today

0:25:26

the the useful life of a of a building

0:25:28

not that great how about the land

0:25:30

underneath the building better

0:25:32

buy blocks of new york city and that

0:25:35

that'll be good for a while but you've

0:25:37

got a property tax on it

0:25:39

the property tax you know and and you've

0:25:42

got the risk of uh seizure by eminent

0:25:45

domain

0:25:47

and you've got

0:25:48

you've got the meddling of the

0:25:50

neighborhood zoning board they can zone

0:25:52

your you know your 10 blocks to be

0:25:55

low density

0:25:57

yeah or they can zone it to be high

0:25:59

density and high density makes it worth

0:26:01

50 million dollars a block and low

0:26:02

density makes it worth a million dollars

0:26:04

a block

0:26:05

so imagine having the neighborhood the

0:26:07

mayor the governor every regulator in

0:26:11

the united states the white house

0:26:13

and congress all deciding whether or not

0:26:16

they will impair

0:26:18

your asset or your property

0:26:20

every year for the next hundred years

0:26:22

that's the problem with all with all

0:26:24

these properties but could they impair

0:26:27

bitcoin the same way to give it a carry

0:26:29

cost so there's a holding tax that you

0:26:31

have to pay every year or three percent

0:26:34

in line with property i mean that's

0:26:36

likely to happen right over time the the

0:26:38

basic principle is this raul

0:26:40

bitcoin is the apex property of the

0:26:42

human race

0:26:44

it's the hardest to impair

0:26:46

it's the hardest to seize

0:26:49

it's the hardest

0:26:50

to tax it's the easiest to move

0:26:54

it's the easiest to keep confidential

0:26:57

you can you can subdivide it

0:27:01

take your take your 10 acres of property

0:27:04

in new york city or 10 city blocks in

0:27:05

new york city divided into 97 000 pieces

0:27:09

and then rented out to 97 000 people

0:27:12

that live somewhere outside of new york

0:27:15

every hour

0:27:20

you understand what i'm getting which is

0:27:20

i can oscillate the property

0:27:23

at 60 megahertz

0:27:25

i i can move it at any frequency i can

0:27:28

subdivide it you know in any partition

0:27:33

if new york wanted to tax it i can move

0:27:35

it to wyoming or florida you see

0:27:38

yeah certainly the you know politicians

0:27:40

are going to attack stuff with tax when

0:27:42

you have a billion dollars of property

0:27:44

in beverly hills and when the governor

0:27:46

of california decides to tax it

0:27:49

how are you going to move that to miami

0:27:52

right so so my point is not that there

0:27:54

won't be taxes and there won't be

0:27:56

attempts to tax it but let's coming back

0:27:59

come back to the theory of like stolen

0:28:02

a car thief can steal any car so why do

0:28:05

you bother to lock your door

0:28:07

you lock your door because

0:28:09

you know you figure you might as well

0:28:11

make your car just like 37 seconds more

0:28:14

difficult to steal than the car in front

0:28:16

of you or behind you

0:28:18

so they'll steal that car

0:28:20

and i think if you come back to bitcoin

0:28:22

as digital property

0:28:25

you can move it

0:28:27

unlike land

0:28:29

how do you move the domicile of apple

0:28:31

headquarters

0:28:33

you've seen the apple headquarters

0:28:35

that's not moving right so you can't

0:28:37

move the domicile of corporation you

0:28:39

can't move a factory you can't move land

0:28:41

in kansas you can't move a city block in

0:28:44

new york you can't move the rockefeller

0:28:46

center

0:28:47

okay can you move a billion dollars of

0:28:50

at you know theoretically but

0:28:51

practically no right pretty it would

0:28:54

take you six months try smuggling a

0:28:55

billion dollars with the gold through

0:28:57

the airport think it's not easy maybe in

0:29:00

theory but you know they can pass a law

0:29:02

making it difficult to move the gold

0:29:05

can you move a billion dollars worth of

0:29:07

artwork

0:29:08

well sort of but you know you're still

0:29:10

you're dependent upon sotheby's and

0:29:12

christie's to value the artwork and it's

0:29:14

kind of esoteric you might get the crown

0:29:17

prince to buy your artwork but there are

0:29:19

a lot of people in the world that don't

0:29:20

really need your artwork try subdividing

0:29:23

a picasso by 97 000 into 97 000 pieces

0:29:27

lending it out on the weekend and then

0:29:29

recombine combining again on monday

0:29:32

morning not gonna happen

0:29:35

bitcoin

0:29:36

i can move it it's hard to confiscate

0:29:39

it's hard to tax but let's say well

0:29:41

let's come back to this tax issue i'm an

0:29:43

american citizen and you know no state's

0:29:46

going to get it no municipality is going

0:29:49

to be able to tax it miami taxes my

0:29:51

property two percent you know or florida

0:29:54

does i can't move my house

0:29:56

but i can move my bitcoin out of florida

0:29:59

but let's say that you know you're

0:30:00

really focused right and congress passes

0:30:03

a law saying every american must pay

0:30:06

two percent a year

0:30:08

to own bitcoin wealth tax yeah okay well

0:30:12

i mean let's get to the extreme well

0:30:13

they're going to tax everything else

0:30:15

first right i mean

0:30:16

that wealth tax is gonna they've already

0:30:18

basically put a property tax on every

0:30:20

piece of property in every state in the

0:30:22

country so

0:30:24

eventually let's say they get to that

0:30:25

point

0:30:27

and let's say that they combine that

0:30:28

with that you have to like give up your

0:30:30

passport pay an exit tax and live out of

0:30:32

the country for a decade before you

0:30:34

conduct that

0:30:36

okay fair enough

0:30:38

right that was yeah you you kind of got

0:30:41

me there but having said it

0:30:43

i can sell the property

0:30:46

okay so if i hold bitcoin in the us as a

0:30:49

us citizen at two percent a year for 50

0:30:52

years

0:30:53

okay i'm gonna pay a hundred percent of

0:30:54

the asset value to bitcoin

0:30:56

having said all that there's a person in

0:30:59

singapore that still will want to own a

0:31:01

billion dollars of

0:31:02

bitcoin you know

0:31:05

sell your billion dollar building in

0:31:06

manhattan to the person in singapore

0:31:09

when they put a two percent tax on the

0:31:10

building in manhattan the point is you

0:31:13

don't have the option to sell it it you

0:31:15

know it's not going to be that useful

0:31:19

and uh and then let's come back to the

0:31:20

other point which is

0:31:23

bitcoin you could think of it as digital

0:31:25

property

0:31:27

but you can also think of it as digital

0:31:29

energy

0:31:30

and if you think of it as digital energy

0:31:32

right all

0:31:33

all energy becomes matter all matter can

0:31:36

become energy there's conservation of

0:31:38

them you can either create nor destroy

0:31:41

that right

0:31:42

uh i could take money a billion dollars

0:31:45

of money turn into a billion dollars of

0:31:47

energy turn into a billion dollars of

0:31:49

products and services turned into a

0:31:50

billion dollars of property all of these

0:31:52

things are fungible in a socio-economic

0:31:56

system

0:31:58

and bitcoin is digital energy

0:32:00

then what's special about it is

0:32:04

let's take a million dollar let's take a

0:32:06

megawatt of power i if i have a megawatt

0:32:08

of power and i sell it on a commercial

0:32:10

grid at 11 cents a kilowatt hour it

0:32:13

works out to be about a million dollars

0:32:16

that's what it's worth

0:32:18

store a megawatt of power for for a

0:32:20

hundred years can't do it no

0:32:23

okay you lose two percent of the energy

0:32:25

and the best battery every month so your

0:32:28

half-life of electrical energy is three

0:32:31

years you can't store it can you move it

0:32:34

six percent is the transaction fee to

0:32:36

move at 500 miles

0:32:38

can you and you need a line build a

0:32:40

power line move it 500 miles past six

0:32:43

percent each time move it ten times okay

0:32:46

pay sixty percent move to tokyo can't do

0:32:50

store it for a hundred years can't do it

0:32:53

what happens if i mine bitcoin take an

0:32:56

s19 miner put it on a megawatt of power

0:32:59

convert it to bitcoin i've converted

0:33:02

electrical energy into digital energy

0:33:05

it's worth four million dollars of

0:33:07

bitcoin on an s19 miner an s19 miner

0:33:10

will spit out about a million dollars

0:33:12

worth of

0:33:13

of bitcoin

0:33:14

now what happens after i've digitized

0:33:16

the energy

0:33:18

it'll last forever

0:33:19

can i move uh you know four million

0:33:21

dollars worth of bitcoin move it to

0:33:23

tokyo

0:33:24

well two days ago someone moved two

0:33:26

billion dollars of bitcoin for like 78

0:33:28

cents row

0:33:29

78 cents to move 2 billion dollars of

0:33:32

digital energy anywhere on earth

0:33:35

people are like well it's slow

0:33:37

it takes an hour or half an hour on the

0:33:40

main chain that's hardly slight try

0:33:42

moving a billion dollars of gold or a

0:33:44

billion dollars of electricity 10 000

0:33:46

miles yeah okay build yourself the

0:33:49

pipeline to move a billion dollars of

0:33:51

natural gas 10 000 miles

0:33:54

can't move it at all chemical energy

0:33:56

doesn't move

0:33:57

we had contango in the oil market when

0:33:59

when petroleum prices went negative why

0:34:02

because you can't store oil

0:34:04

right store a billion dollars of oil as

0:34:07

an individual can't do it you can store

0:34:10

a billion dollars of bitcoin on an

0:34:12

android phone that cost 50 bucks

0:34:15

you can move it at the speed of light

0:34:18

they're discovering that in el salvador

0:34:20

right now by the lightning network we're

0:34:22

now moving

0:34:23

we're moving digital energy at the speed

0:34:26

of light at a transaction cost of one

0:34:29

satoshi

0:34:30

one two thousandth of a cent is the

0:34:33

price

0:34:35

it's a big idea but here's the idea

0:34:38

humanity has advanced via

0:34:41

via harnessing chemical energy

0:34:45

wind energy

0:34:46

right potential energy hydro energy

0:34:51

thermal energy

0:34:53

electrical energy

0:34:55

nuclear energy

0:34:57

and what's the end of it digital energy

0:35:00

if you convert those forms of energy

0:35:02

into digital energy

0:35:05

that energy has three properties that

0:35:07

are critical and people don't get this

0:35:09

the first property is the digital energy

0:35:12

has a half-life of forever

0:35:14

i can hold it for a hundred years

0:35:17

right the second property is digital

0:35:20

energy can be moved

0:35:22

at anywhere on earth for free

0:35:24

teleported

0:35:26

that's a big idea the third idea is you

0:35:30

can subdivide and oscillate the energy

0:35:33

any frequency at any scale

0:35:37

so what do i mean by that

0:35:39

or i'll i'll give you an illustration

0:35:42

i have 50 million dollars and i buy a

0:35:45

hotel in dallas texas

0:35:47

and it's got a hundred hotel rooms

0:35:51

i want to generate yield on the hotel

0:35:54

i let people book the rooms whatever the

0:35:57

prevailing rate is 100 a night

0:36:00

the average utilization in dallas texas

0:36:03

is going to be like 62

0:36:06

and my fixed costs are such that i get

0:36:08

about a 10 margin and if we fall below

0:36:12

i'm losing money i'm not getting any

0:36:14

yield in that

0:36:15

okay that's physical property now

0:36:18

convert that to energy pure energy i buy

0:36:21

bitcoin it's a it's a energy hotel what

0:36:24

does that mean

0:36:25

well now i can actually move the hotel

0:36:30

or or take the rooms of the hotel that

0:36:33

where there's no demand in dallas texas

0:36:35

and i can send them

0:36:37

somewhere else in space to get to a

0:36:39

hundred percent utilization

0:36:41

and when i get to a hundred percent

0:36:43

utilization obviously my profitability

0:36:45

jumps from ten percent to sixty percent

0:36:47

my yield goes through the roof

0:36:49

now having said all that

0:36:51

if every single room in the hotel was

0:36:53

booked every single day

0:36:55

then obviously the hotel's generating

0:36:57

higher yield

0:36:59

even if i booked every room in the hotel

0:37:02

every day people are only using eight to

0:37:04

ten hours a day of the rooms what if i

0:37:06

could subdivide the hotel down into room

0:37:09

hours

0:37:10

and if i could reclaim the 62 percent of

0:37:12

the room hours when the hotel is still

0:37:16

now that's interesting now i get to 300

0:37:19

percent utilization

0:37:21

now here's a bigger idea

0:37:23

300 percent utilization at a hundred

0:37:25

dollars a room night turns my

0:37:26

profitability from 10 percent to

0:37:29

200 percent

0:37:31

what if i could actually sell room hours

0:37:35

anywhere on earth and i could go chase

0:37:37

after the highest marginal value of the

0:37:40

room hour so during the super bowl i put

0:37:43

the hotel where the super bowl is and

0:37:45

during the venice film festival i move

0:37:47

it to where the venice film festival is

0:37:49

and and if there's an inaugural event in

0:37:52

dc i moved the hotel there and then i

0:37:54

could double the room rate to twenty

0:37:56

dollars you know two hundred dollars a

0:37:59

day instead of one hundred dollars a day

0:38:01

what i have done is i've i've vibrated

0:38:04

that the energy or i've moved energy at

0:38:06

a higher frequency and i've captured a

0:38:08

higher marginal utility

0:38:11

and i've done it by dematerializing the

0:38:13

property to pure energy on a network and

0:38:16

i kind of just described the

0:38:19

the promise of d5

0:38:21

which could be c5 or d5 but this idea of

0:38:24

dematerialized finance but it's also

0:38:28

the collateral thing that i've been

0:38:29

talking about

0:38:30

because basically what you've got is a

0:38:32

piece of collateral that somebody's

0:38:34

going to want at some point

0:38:36

and therefore you can charge accordingly

0:38:39

for your collateral which you don't do

0:38:40

with treasuries because yields actually

0:38:41

go down when everybody wants collateral

0:38:43

it's kind of weird

0:38:44

but here you're getting the piece of

0:38:45

classroom that somebody wants so if

0:38:47

somebody's in financial stress they need

0:38:49

something they need collateral you can

0:38:51

lend it out instantaneously anywhere in

0:38:52

the world

0:38:53

and the classroom's never impaired

0:38:55

because it's on the blockchain it's kind

0:38:56

of it's a really fascinating concept

0:38:59

it's like tesla's concept of understand

0:39:01

frequency understand frequency and what

0:39:04

does that mean

0:39:06

high frequency high fidelity collateral

0:39:09

or high frequency high fidelity

0:39:12

energy in this particular case

0:39:15

if i have a billion dollars of gold i

0:39:18

put it in a vault what's the what's the

0:39:21

monetary velocity on that once every

0:39:23

decade yeah

0:39:25

yeah i can't lend i can't divide the

0:39:28

gold into a million pieces and lend it

0:39:30

every hour

0:39:32

the velocity you know the boy the best

0:39:34

way to get velocity on gold

0:39:36

is coin it right if i converted the gold

0:39:39

into coinage and we're trading the coins

0:39:41

like i can kind of move to a higher

0:39:43

velocity money bullion is low velocity

0:39:46

money if i go to the fiat system with

0:39:48

credit cards

0:39:50

a billion dollars spent by the credit

0:39:52

card system it takes 30 to 60 days to

0:39:54

settle

0:39:55

right when i give you a thousand dollars

0:39:57

you have to wait 30 days before you know

0:39:59

that the credit card company's not going

0:40:00

to claw back the money yeah so it's it's

0:40:03

a little bit tricky as a retailer

0:40:06

there's a two and a half percent fee to

0:40:08

every single time it changes hands

0:40:10

and the velocity is five

0:40:12

per year okay

0:40:14

now let's go to uh to digital energy

0:40:19

and then and the entire crypto space you

0:40:21

see what's going on the velocity you

0:40:23

know the final settlement is in an hour

0:40:25

well what if the final settlement is in

0:40:26

a second

0:40:27

let's just keep it at an hour you know

0:40:30

final settlements in an hour there's 8

0:40:32

700 hours in a year

0:40:35

so now i take my billion dollar block of

0:40:37

energy and i subdivided a thousand ways

0:40:41

and i move it back and forth every hour

0:40:43

and i chase after the person want to

0:40:45

give me the highest marginal yield on

0:40:47

the energy

0:40:48

and i you know how do you do that well

0:40:50

one computer talks to a hundred thousand

0:40:52

other computers a thousand times a

0:40:54

second a million times a second

0:40:57

while you're sleeping

0:40:59

and what you have is a financial system

0:41:01

that's continually

0:41:03

yield seeking looking for someone that

0:41:05

needs that loan

0:41:07

maybe it's a loan for a month

0:41:09

it's you know and you're either

0:41:11

borrowing or you're lending one or the

0:41:12

other right i mean i can lend it and

0:41:14

generate yield off it or i'm borrowing

0:41:16

i'm i'm seeking the person willing to

0:41:18

give me the lowest cost

0:41:23

if you have um if you have a certain

0:41:25

amount of bitcoin let's say i have a

0:41:27

million dollars and i expected to

0:41:29

appreciate it 10 a year if my expense

0:41:32

ratio is less than my

0:41:35

appreciation rate i can borrow against

0:41:37

it forever with my

0:41:40

loan to value falling right my debt to

0:41:43

equity ratio will keep falling

0:41:45

i can spend five percent of my money

0:41:47

every year forever

0:41:49

as long as it appreciates that six

0:41:51

percent a year

0:41:52

assuming i've got a a bank that i trust

0:41:56

right

0:41:57

an effective banking system

0:42:00

so i i think that this idea of digital

0:42:04

energy is a very important one

0:42:06

it's important one because it makes it

0:42:08

the most disruptive force in the entire

0:42:10

energy industry

0:42:12

right you're converting every form of

0:42:14

energy into digital energy and and the

0:42:17

world's full of stranded energy that

0:42:20

what's the problem with energy you can't

0:42:22

store it right you can't store chemical

0:42:24

energy in the form of oil you can't

0:42:26

store it you can't store wind energy you

0:42:28

can't store solar energy you ever seen a

0:42:30

solar energy battery array

0:42:33

like i've i saw i've seen them i saw

0:42:36

someone with solar power and uh

0:42:39

and with windmills sitting on an island

0:42:41

in the bahamas and i looked at the

0:42:43

battery array the battery array takes up

0:42:45

a warehouse and you walk into it it's

0:42:47

all rusting

0:42:49

it's all going to rust within five years

0:42:52

it's a nightmare

0:42:53

to store uh renewable energy you know

0:42:57

anywhere where there happens to be water

0:42:58

vapor and the cost is obscene

0:43:01

so every single form of energy you can't

0:43:04

store it one third of it is wasted

0:43:07

and and so converting energy into

0:43:09

digital energy

0:43:11

is critical because

0:43:13

you move it anywhere at the speed of

0:43:15

light it lasts forever

0:43:17

and you can oscillate it at any

0:43:20

frequency at any scale

0:43:23

and uh and that means

0:43:25

tapping harness the value of it

0:43:28

to the

0:43:30

a degree that is inconceivable but

0:43:32

before the digital energy is also

0:43:34

interesting of course to any investor

0:43:37

it changes banking

0:43:39

right you know it could totally change

0:43:41

the way you think about banking and

0:43:42

finance and yield

0:43:44

and of course

0:43:46

think about a world rall where

0:43:47

everybody's taking their excess money

0:43:49

and they're buying

0:43:50

you know the conventional store of value

0:43:53

for middle class citizen is oh i buy a

0:43:55

rental home

0:43:58

you know i had a guy that worked for me

0:44:00

you know he quits my employ because so

0:44:03

he can buy three

0:44:04

rental homes rental properties and he

0:44:07

rents them out

0:44:08

okay well that's fine but on the other

0:44:10

hand if you had five hundred thousand

0:44:12

dollars and your choice is i'm going to

0:44:15

have physical property and a domicile or

0:44:17

jurisdiction that can be impaired by

0:44:19

circumstance acts of god acts of

0:44:22

politician

0:44:23

it's like how you rent something in like

0:44:25

you know

0:44:27

eastern virginia during a drone and also

0:44:30

anybody's ever done that trade and we've

0:44:32

all done it we've all bought places to

0:44:34

rent out it's a [ __ ] nightmare

0:44:36

the actual effort you need to do to rent

0:44:39

something out versus owning an asset

0:44:42

like bitcoin we virtually have no effort

0:44:45

the difference is extraordinary bitcoin

0:44:48

is not going to spring a leak you know

0:44:50

there's not going to there's not going

0:44:52

to be a property tax you don't have a

0:44:55

maintenance charge it doesn't spring a

0:44:57

leak it doesn't burn down there is no

0:45:00

imminent don't have to evict your

0:45:01

tenants you know nothing yeah yeah all

0:45:04

sorts of things like that it's it's

0:45:07

it's it's unique well in this respect

0:45:11

property is is is superior to a security

0:45:15

for so many different reasons

0:45:18

if you own property from a

0:45:20

from a

0:45:23

from a custodianship point of view it's

0:45:25

superior to security it's

0:45:27

you know there's no way that a mayor a

0:45:29

senator a congress person is going to

0:45:31

stand up in front of congress and say

0:45:34

my apple stock

0:45:35

is a superior store of value to the u.s

0:45:37

dollar

0:45:39

you can't do it it violates every ethics

0:45:42

right it violates a if it doesn't

0:45:44

violate a whole host of laws it violates

0:45:46

ethics rules plus

0:45:52

when you're promoting a security

0:45:52

you're taking counterparty risk

0:45:55

right you're you're dependent upon the

0:45:57

the acts of the board the acts of the

0:45:59

ceo you've got the domicile

0:46:02

gary ginzer's on television today

0:46:04

talking about how the chinese don't

0:46:06

allow us to audit chinese auditors and

0:46:09

maybe you can't trust a company

0:46:11

in china there's all sorts of issues

0:46:14

with the security so name me the

0:46:16

properties i got gold

0:46:18

you know gold's got no velocity

0:46:21

you know i got timberland

0:46:23

okay so the average person how do you

0:46:25

buy 10 million dollars of timberland and

0:46:26

harvest timberland

0:46:28

i got natural gas rights

0:46:31

that's great but if there's no

0:46:33

pipeline going to natural gas how do you

0:46:35

sell your natural gas

0:46:37

right i got picassos oh yeah that's not

0:46:40

a manipulated market right arch

0:46:43

right like it's a very esoteric market

0:46:45

how many people can buy 37 000 or 37

0:46:50

worth of like rare art

0:46:52

silver

0:46:54

diamonds

0:46:55

okay what's the property

0:46:58

that's that that i can trust

0:47:00

right and the answer is bitcoin because

0:47:04

it is truly decentralized and it is

0:47:06

homogeneous and yet has it has been

0:47:09

anointed as property it's a it's a safe

0:47:12

haven the irs has its property

0:47:15

the the sec says its property

0:47:17

and it

0:47:19

i'll make one last point bro

0:47:21

it's fungible property across time and

0:47:23

space

0:47:25

for example

0:47:26

one bitcoin equals one bitcoin today

0:47:31

decompose it to a hundred bitcoin a

0:47:33

hundred you know one million satoshis

0:47:36

and put it back together again you know

0:47:38

i've still got the same thing

0:47:42

and at the same time one bitcoin in 10

0:47:44

years is going to be one bitcoin it's

0:47:46

going to be the same quality it's going

0:47:47

to be 1

0:47:48

21 millionth of all the monetary energy

0:47:51

in the network forever

0:47:53

that's not the same with your house if

0:47:55

you bought a lake house

0:47:56

and on lake tahoe you know to air b and

0:47:59

b it out in decade it may not be as high

0:48:02

a quality as today you have to invest

0:48:04

huge amounts of maintenance to maintain

0:48:07

as new

0:48:08

even if you do that it's still going to

0:48:10

be dated in 30 years there's no way to

0:48:13

avoid

0:48:14

the property maybe you bought the most

0:48:16

beautiful lake house in lake tahoe and

0:48:19

in 30 years someone builds a condo next

0:48:21

to it because some politician rezoned

0:48:23

the land to your left and your right and

0:48:26

nobody wants to stay in your lake house

0:48:28

if it didn't sink into the water if

0:48:30

something else didn't happen

0:48:32

even if you're the perfect landlord

0:48:35

and so this idea that i can have a pure

0:48:38

pristine property in time and space

0:48:42

that i can decompose and recompose that

0:48:44

i can oscillate

0:48:46

that i can program

0:48:48

this is unique in the history of the

0:48:51

world there's nothing comparable to this

0:48:54

and we have not

0:48:56

we have not developed this

0:48:58

this is property that anybody with a

0:49:00

computer can develop i can write a

0:49:02

computer program to move this stuff

0:49:04

around

0:49:05

some kid

0:49:07

in zimbabwe can write a computer program

0:49:10

on a android phone

0:49:12

that can they can create value from your

0:49:14

digital energy or your digital property

0:49:17

that they're not going to develop

0:49:20

real estate in new york city

0:49:22

nobody you know and can your your

0:49:24

timberland and wherever it is montana is

0:49:27

not going to get developed by some

0:49:29

intelligent hacker in singapore

0:49:32

so you're tapping into

0:49:34

something which is incredibly powerful

0:49:38

and conceivable before now

0:49:41

most people still just they don't have

0:49:42

their hands around it

0:49:44

if you energy digital energy is the

0:49:47

technical metaphor

0:49:48

that says this is the technical

0:49:50

imperative for facebook and google and

0:49:52

apple and everybody with a computer you

0:49:54

know programming capability or a cpu

0:49:56

chip digital property is a macroeconomic

0:50:00

metaphor

0:50:02

100 trillion dollars is going to flow

0:50:04

out of real property to digital property

0:50:08

digital money

0:50:09

that's the political metaphor digital

0:50:12

money is the most controversial i prefer

0:50:15

to stay away from it

0:50:17

it's much easier it torques off all the

0:50:19

politicians and all the mainstream and

0:50:21

everybody doesn't understand it and they

0:50:23

just get all worried you know it's going

0:50:25

to topple

0:50:26

the government or it's going to

0:50:28

undermine the status quo so if you leave

0:50:30

that and you say it's digital energy

0:50:34

it's just energy with a half-life of a

0:50:35

million years that you can oscillate at

0:50:37

60 megahertz on a mobile phone for eight

0:50:40

billion people

0:50:41

it's digital property it means every

0:50:43

middle-class person

0:50:45

can store their life savings in property

0:50:47

and get yield on it from the highest

0:50:49

bidder everywhere in the world every

0:50:51

second of the day and they don't have to

0:50:53

stress out

0:50:55

about the property burning down

0:50:57

when you understand those two things you

0:50:59

step back you say what am i going to do

0:51:00

and the answer is

0:51:01

i'm just going to own it

0:51:03

i'm just going to own it man just buy it

0:51:06

and let everybody else figure this stuff

0:51:07

out a hundred thousand

0:51:09

entities are going to come up with a way

0:51:13

to utilize digital energy or develop

0:51:15

digital property

0:51:17

just own it yeah because network

0:51:19

adoption it'll just keep working it's

0:51:21

magic so here's another thing i want to

0:51:23

think through because i don't really

0:51:24

know the answer to this

0:51:26

humans are humans and we're going to

0:51:27

create leverage

0:51:29

and we talked about the monetization or

0:51:32

the financialization of assets

0:51:34

and we see us at retail levels you

0:51:36

talked about this 20x 100x

0:51:38

but we're going to see it at scale again

0:51:40

because that's what humans do

0:51:42

is that going to change some of the

0:51:44

properties of what this looks like in

0:51:46

the future are we going to introduce

0:51:48

some of the risks and some of the

0:51:51

downside

0:51:53

that it doesn't really it's not really

0:51:55

there in this marketplace now i i think

0:51:57

that the number one

0:51:59

the number one critique right now of

0:52:01

bitcoin is it's volatile but i don't

0:52:03

think it's volatile because it's digital

0:52:05

property or digital energy or because of

0:52:07

all of the

0:52:09

constructive uses of it i think it's

0:52:11

volatile because there's too much

0:52:12

leverage in the offshore crypto

0:52:13

exchanges and the alt coins

0:52:15

i think that i think that what's

0:52:17

happening is someone buys an altcoin

0:52:19

with a 10x lever it moves up 20 percent

0:52:22

they cross collateralize into the second

0:52:25

altcoin and then they

0:52:27

somehow collateralize that or they tie

0:52:29

that into bitcoin

0:52:31

i think that 20x and 100x leverage and

0:52:34

the offshore

0:52:35

crypto exchanges has been driving the

0:52:38

volatility in bitcoin and i think that

0:52:42

as we come off of that i i think that

0:52:44

we're not going to see 20x leverage

0:52:47

the coinbase doesn't offer 20x elaborate

0:52:49

no but i but the investment banks will

0:52:51

you know because they can't help

0:52:53

themselves because that's where they see

0:52:54

money is i'm going to give somebody else

0:52:57

a bigger financial player a hedge fund

0:52:59

for example

0:53:00

this kind of leverage well i mean like

0:53:02

we just saw

0:53:03

we just saw the equity swap issue with

0:53:06

archigos

0:53:07

play out but i can tell you that i've

0:53:10

traded with all the wire houses for 30

0:53:12

years with hundreds of millions of

0:53:14

dollars they never offered me an equity

0:53:17

okay it's not very common to be able to

0:53:20

get an equity swap even if you have a

0:53:21

500 million dollar portfolio so 99

0:53:28

maybe 99

0:53:29

everybody i know they're not trading

0:53:30

with equity swaps that the highest

0:53:32

amount of equity or the highest amount

0:53:34

of leverage you see in conventional

0:53:36

markets is like 50 50 or 2x leverage

0:53:41

and so i i'm not really concerned about

0:53:43

that the future of bitcoin is

0:53:45

transitioning into the public

0:53:48

markets and the institutional investment

0:53:50

markets where the leverage is normally

0:53:52

going to be

0:53:54

or or less and i think that it'll be d

0:53:57

levered more than it'll be levered i

0:53:59

think that

0:54:00

if you look at the velocity of the

0:54:02

crypto market

0:54:04

people are taking 10x and 20x trades

0:54:07

and uh and those things are being marked

0:54:10

to market every minute of the day on the

0:54:12

weekend with forced liquidation the

0:54:14

reason you get you know you get

0:54:17

volatility

0:54:18

is when you put 10x or 20x through

0:54:21

something that's got if i have a if i

0:54:25

have a two billion dollar market cap and

0:54:28

30 million dollars of this stuff is

0:54:29

trading and i lean on it with 20x

0:54:32

leverage

0:54:33

against something you know something

0:54:36

else then i'll move that number if i'm

0:54:38

cross collateralized

0:54:41

and i'm able to go back and plug that

0:54:43

into bitcoin you'll actually drive some

0:54:44

bitcoin volatility

0:54:46

but you know the volatility is coming

0:54:48

from the crypto markets it's not coming

0:54:51

from conventional users of digital

0:54:54

property or traditional institutions and

0:54:56

also what's very different about this

0:54:58

market

0:54:59

is if you take leverage in the new york

0:55:01

stock exchange or the futures market you

0:55:03

have margin somebody calls you up and

0:55:05

says you need to pledge more capital the

0:55:07

crypto markets are the opposites like we

0:55:09

control your margin we'll liquidate you

0:55:10

immediately you get no choice so you

0:55:13

kind of know what you can lose

0:55:15

in futures markets you don't know what

0:55:16

you can lose because in the end if you

0:55:18

can't pay your collateral the next day

0:55:20

your margin the next day you're in

0:55:22

[ __ ] street

0:55:24

yeah i i think the conclusion is look if

0:55:27

you if you look at where gensler is

0:55:28

going you know

0:55:30

and where the regulators are going

0:55:32

they're going to regulate the stable

0:55:35

coins they're going to regulate the d5

0:55:38

exchanges like unit swap they're going

0:55:40

to put more regulation on the offshore

0:55:43

crypto exchanges

0:55:45

as they they're going to put more

0:55:46

regulation on the onshore exchanges and

0:55:49

as they do that one of the consequences

0:55:51

is leverage is going to get taken out of

0:55:54

the system

0:55:55

the the obscene amounts of leverage

0:55:57

comes from

0:55:58

you know defy

0:56:00

combined with offshore 20x

0:56:03

right

0:56:04

and if you go onshore

0:56:07

it's kind of hard to generate a 200x

0:56:10

leverage play in fact as i said before

0:56:13

so i you remember what happened when

0:56:15

bitmex went offline yeah you know when

0:56:17

they brought charge against bit i was

0:56:19

trading in the market roll and i you

0:56:21

know so i like looking at it every

0:56:23

minute of the day

0:56:24

like i very very trading in it like

0:56:26

having the skin played off your back if

0:56:29

if you saw something go wrong

0:56:31

like i watch bitcoin go from

0:56:33

9 500 a coin to 10

0:56:37

500 a coin in three minutes

0:56:41

you know

0:56:42

like while i'm on the phone and then i

0:56:44

went to bed and i was short

0:56:46

i was trying to buy it at 9 500. i was

0:56:49

short and i went to bed and it came back

0:56:51

to me

0:56:52

by 3 p.m the next day but i damn near

0:56:55

had a heart attack right

0:56:57

like literal heart attack when bit max

0:57:00

went offline i watched half the velocity

0:57:02

disappear

0:57:03

so i have half the volatility

0:57:05

disappeared like you could literally see

0:57:08

like the volume got cut in half and the

0:57:11

volatility came way in and so

0:57:14

i think that um you've seen you're

0:57:17

seeing progressive waves

0:57:19

of normalization as as these markets get

0:57:23

less levered and i think that that's

0:57:25

going to continue

0:57:27

over time i

0:57:29

i don't know that it will end tomorrow

0:57:32

obviously my long-term thesis as you

0:57:35

look out two three four five years

0:57:38

as as more and more large institutions

0:57:40

hold this with less and less leverage

0:57:42

the volatility

0:57:44

on bitcoin decreases yeah and as as

0:57:47

network effects take hold and more

0:57:49

people own it becomes less volatile just

0:57:51

because the nature of the number of

0:57:53

people buying and selling each day just

0:57:55

just lowers that over time so here's a

0:57:57

final question i want to

0:57:59

think about is okay let's go out ten

0:58:01

years now

0:58:03

and just think about

0:58:05

okay this there's this kind of digital

0:58:07

asset world with d5 and everything else

0:58:10

where's bitcoin's role

0:58:13

in that as the apex predator what does

0:58:15

that mean does it mean all d5's on on

0:58:18

bitcoin or it's a broadly spread digital

0:58:20

asset world with this new technology and

0:58:22

bitcoin is the kind of base layer

0:58:24

collateral of the entire thing how do

0:58:25

you think about that i think the bitcoin

0:58:27

is the most decentralized

0:58:31

digital property right it's it's the

0:58:33

highest quality digital property

0:58:36

we want to create a digital property

0:58:38

running on a decentralized network

0:58:40

that's owned by everyone and no one

0:58:43

like that that's the real key it can't

0:58:44

it can't pass the howie test

0:58:47

it you know we can't have no one can

0:58:49

shut it down

0:58:50

you can't have people upgrading it every

0:58:53

quarter or every six months you can't

0:58:55

have a ceo of it you can't have a cto of

0:58:59

you can't you know you need to have

0:59:01

something completely decentralized

0:59:05

once you've got that now the the

0:59:07

velocity of the digital property again

0:59:11

when you call it digital energy you

0:59:12

start to see it differently

0:59:14

you realize

0:59:15

you can accelerate it on on layer two

0:59:18

platforms

0:59:20

and there are a lot of decentralized

0:59:22

layer two platforms so so

0:59:24

lightning is a decentralized layer two

0:59:26

platform you could say that many of the

0:59:29

other cryptos

0:59:31

to the extent that they're decentralized

0:59:33

their layer two platforms right

0:59:35

there there's going to be a battle to

0:59:37

see which cryptos are truly

0:59:39

property versus which ones are security

0:59:41

and gensler has said that on no less

0:59:43

than four different occasions he thinks

0:59:45

many of these cryptos are security so

0:59:48

so as we start to see more guidance

0:59:51

there he's also said some tokens are

0:59:53

commodities so as we sort out which

0:59:56

token is commodity and which token is

0:59:58

security you're going to have a

1:00:00

competition of of layer 2

1:00:04

tokens the the lightning network runs on

1:00:07

a layer to on a token which is bitcoin

1:00:09

right which is an interesting thing but

1:00:12

but i think that you're going to see uh

1:00:14

a competition there and then you can see

1:00:16

layer threes and layer threes i define

1:00:21

centralized uh finance applications like

1:00:25

square

1:00:26

or paypal or coinbase or binance

1:00:31

right all of those are moving large sums

1:00:34

of bitcoin at high velocity

1:00:36

you you know square's got 30 or 40

1:00:39

million customers and you can move any

1:00:41

amount of bitcoin from square cash tag

1:00:44

to square hashtag instantly for free

1:00:48

as you start to see those

1:00:50

they're going to create an accelerated

1:00:52

finance

1:00:54

between you and me i'm not sure that

1:00:57

decentralized finance needs

1:01:00

a decentralized layer two

1:01:03

it needs a decentralized layer one like

1:01:07

you need digital energy to exist in

1:01:10

order to

1:01:11

move it at the speed of light a hundred

1:01:14

thousand times an hour across a hundred

1:01:17

jurisdictions in order to do yield

1:01:19

farming so you need digital energy and

1:01:22

bitcoin is you need one do you need two

1:01:25

not not necessarily you need one digital

1:01:28

token that you can move at the speed of

1:01:30

light a million times a second

1:01:32

if i've got that

1:01:34

jp morgan can get in this space

1:01:37

coinbase can get in this space square

1:01:39

can get in the space square's a bank

1:01:41

you know like there's this quiet you

1:01:43

know coinbase wants to have a lend

1:01:45

product that has yield

1:01:47

the sec says that's a security

1:01:50

they can't offer it

1:01:52

okay well you

1:01:54

they didn't say you can't offer it they

1:01:56

said you actually have to register it

1:01:57

under the sec 40 act

1:02:00

there are plenty of organizations that

1:02:02

offer money market funds

1:02:04

with yield you're either a bank

1:02:06

and you offer a savings account with

1:02:08

yield and you subject yourself to

1:02:10

banking regulation or

1:02:12

you're uh you're issuing a security and

1:02:15

then you have to file that with the sec

1:02:17

you're running a fund

1:02:19

you know and the knight eggs of the

1:02:20

world and the fidelities of the world

1:02:22

they're filing their you know their

1:02:25

funds

1:02:26

you know with the sec and they're

1:02:28

getting sec authorization for that

1:02:31

so i i think that um there's going to be

1:02:34

a massive competition

1:02:36

and and there's a market competition

1:02:40

will will um

1:02:42

centralize regulated entities in the u.s

1:02:45

that have gotten certified funds

1:02:48

approved by the sec

1:02:50

will they

1:02:51

create that opportunity

1:02:53

will square and paypal with mobile apps

1:02:57

will will they do it on a mobile app

1:02:59

they they probably also need to get sec

1:03:02

approval to offer it as a mobile app

1:03:04

right

1:03:05

just because you have a mobile app

1:03:06

doesn't mean you don't have to you know

1:03:08

you saw abra has this issue where

1:03:11

they have to get approval from the new

1:03:12

jersey authority to offer a yield

1:03:15

product on a mobile app

1:03:17

so you're going to have

1:03:19

the technology players wanting to get

1:03:21

into space call it fintech you're going

1:03:23

to have traditional players like

1:03:25

fidelity

1:03:26

wanting to get into space for

1:03:28

traditional funds

1:03:29

you're going to have these interesting

1:03:32

lightning based things that want you

1:03:34

know there's there's non-custodial

1:03:37

wallets and lightning like moon and

1:03:39

breeze then there's custodial wallets

1:03:41

like shivo

1:03:43

right and shibo's got you know can shiva

1:03:45

move bitcoin around with a banking

1:03:47

license sure they can why because el

1:03:49

salvador made bitcoin legal tinder you

1:03:52

know so that's why they can

1:03:55

then you're going to have

1:03:57

you're gonna have uh the crypto space

1:03:59

you know with ethereum and cardano and

1:04:02

you know and binance smart chain and

1:04:04

salon and all the rest competing

1:04:07

you're gonna have all sorts of issues of

1:04:09

competition versus you know technology

1:04:12

versus regulation and then you're gonna

1:04:15

have jurisdiction and

1:04:16

you know binance and and ftx are

1:04:19

offering very innovative products but

1:04:21

they're not offering them in the us

1:04:24

so so what will happen and the answer is

1:04:27

stay tuned

1:04:29

stay i just watched yesterday a senator

1:04:32

to me

1:04:34

asked gary gensler can you plea you know

1:04:36

is a stable coin a security and gensor

1:04:39

said it well maybe

1:04:41

he didn't say it was he didn't say what

1:04:43

he said maybe

1:04:44

and toomey said well it doesn't seem

1:04:46

like it to me

1:04:48

and get you know because i'm not

1:04:50

pursuing profit of course in gensler's

1:04:53

response might very well be you have

1:04:55

people on the other side of the trade

1:04:57

the people that issued the stable coin

1:04:59

are trying to borrow 60 billion dollars

1:05:01

at zero interest and lend it out at 60

1:05:03

basis points they're pursuing a profit

1:05:06

this is why it's an it's an unregistered

1:05:08

money market fund and you've got to come

1:05:10

and register with us

1:05:12

so they went back and forth and the

1:05:13

other day to me said you need to give me

1:05:15

clarity

1:05:16

okay instead of actually regulation by

1:05:19

enforcement why don't you actually

1:05:21

publish something

1:05:23

okay and gensler is kind of saying i

1:05:25

hear you

1:05:27

now what's gonna happen

1:05:29

what's gonna you know like

1:05:31

i think we can expect over the next 12

1:05:33

months you're actually going to see

1:05:35

more guidelines about you know about

1:05:39

but it's pretty clear to me in the last

1:05:41

12 weeks

1:05:42

that if you really want to win the d5

1:05:45

space in the next decade

1:05:47

i i think the winners row are going to

1:05:50

be the publicly traded uh institutions

1:05:55

that know how to navigate the corridors

1:05:57

of power

1:05:59

right

1:06:00

you know that the ones that if you can

1:06:02

take your company public

1:06:05

and you can raise uh 10 billion dollars

1:06:08

via a registration statement

1:06:12

i think uh

1:06:15

i think you're going to be a big

1:06:16

advantage i think the fidelity issuing

1:06:18

an etfs is going to be a big advantage

1:06:19

if they get their etf

1:06:21

approved i think the nydig's gonna have

1:06:23

a big advantage

1:06:25

i think the people that are trying to

1:06:27

operate outside of that system if you

1:06:29

can't tap into the public markets

1:06:32

like it i don't know if you noticed i

1:06:34

just saw nearly 400 million dollars

1:06:36

worth of equity into the public market

1:06:39

by a registered atm

1:06:42

and uh and then i converted into bitcoin

1:06:45

and i did that uh

1:06:47

in four weeks three weeks

1:06:50

okay so

1:06:51

in four weeks

1:06:53

not that much effort i put 400 million

1:06:56

dollars into this ecosystem and it took

1:06:59

the you know how long it took me to

1:07:00

gather the first 400 million dollars

1:07:03

30 years

1:07:05

30 years of 2 000 people going through

1:07:07

millions and millions of transactions to

1:07:09

get the first 400 million

1:07:12

few weeks

1:07:13

a couple people get the next 400 million

1:07:17

because we're publicly traded because we

1:07:19

follow the registration statement

1:07:21

because we can tap the capital markets

1:07:25

ginzor says this to the to the senate

1:07:27

yesterday i quote

1:07:29

if it stays outside of the public policy

1:07:32

framework for aml tax compliance and

1:07:35

investor protection

1:07:37

it is not going to long persist

1:07:40

unquote i think that's pretty clear what

1:07:44

he's trying to tell you the issue i've

1:07:45

got with all of this is i get the aml i

1:07:47

get the tax stuff

1:07:53

it's this stupid securities law from

1:07:53

1933 1934

1:07:56

that doesn't make sense

1:07:58

it makes it highly restrictive

1:08:00

in who is able to access certain things

1:08:04

it's that what is a security is

1:08:07

we're trying to fit something into a

1:08:08

wrong framework yeah right i mean that's

1:08:11

the that's what the crypto guys because

1:08:12

anybody can buy a house if you say it's

1:08:15

a property everybody should be able to

1:08:16

buy it

1:08:17

yeah but ral if i created my own mikey

1:08:20

coin and then i pumped it on twitter and

1:08:24

i dumped it on the retail population

1:08:26

after i gave a bunch to a celebrity who

1:08:29

then told the world it was great

1:08:31

it's illegal yeah and it's unethical the

1:08:34

truth of the matter is if you have a

1:08:35

centralized group of people creating a

1:08:39

token which is a security giving it to

1:08:41

themselves and then selling it on the

1:08:43

market and representing it as a

1:08:45

decentralized property you're crossing

1:08:48

an ethical line and you're also crossing

1:08:50

a legal line and you can't you can't

1:08:52

avoid the ethical responsibility and the

1:08:55

legal responsibility

1:08:57

uh simply by saying oh it's new tech

1:09:00

nobody's saying that what i'm saying is

1:09:04

classify as a security is not the right

1:09:07

way of stopping that it doesn't stop it

1:09:09

in equity markets it doesn't stop it in

1:09:11

the vc market doesn't stop it at all

1:09:14

what it is is it makes it more

1:09:15

restrictive for people now

1:09:19

nervous behavior needs to be regulated

1:09:22

if you understand securities law you

1:09:24

understand that they are securities if

1:09:26

if i actually create 10 million tokens

1:09:29

and i give 5 million to me and my four

1:09:32

you know

1:09:33

my four uh compatriots and then we start

1:09:37

marketing the rest and we do it without

1:09:39

a registration statement without

1:09:40

disclosing who owns the security it is a

1:09:43

security you are violating securities

1:09:45

law the law is black and white it's and

1:09:49

so the only people that think it's not a

1:09:50

security are people that don't know the

1:09:53

right

1:09:53

if you look at everybody in the crypto

1:09:55

space

1:09:56

outside of bitcoin i think that most of

1:09:58

them have never taken a company public

1:10:01

they don't have general counsels

1:10:03

right they don't understand securities

1:10:05

law as it stands

1:10:08

like i i can't go

1:10:10

it would be inappropriate and unethical

1:10:12

and illegal for me to go and give a

1:10:14

million shares of microstrategy to a

1:10:16

quarterback

1:10:17

and then have him stand up and say micro

1:10:21

strategy coin is the future on twitter

1:10:24

right the whole point of securities laws

1:10:26

is i have to disclose that via an 8k

1:10:30

there's there's all sorts of obligations

1:10:33

and the and the reason why is because

1:10:35

i've diluted

1:10:36

every other security holder

1:10:39

and and that guy's making a

1:10:41

representation

1:10:43

that you know

1:10:44

that that uh is closeted in another

1:10:48

another situation

1:10:53

you really have to have a grasp of

1:10:55

securities law here

1:10:57

and uh

1:11:00

the person who's actually most informed

1:11:03

on securities law who is also most

1:11:05

informed on crypto is gary ginsler he's

1:11:08

he actually knows more about cryptos

1:11:11

than just about anybody i know in the

1:11:13

crypto space and he also knows more

1:11:15

about securities and commodities law

1:11:17

than anybody in the crypto space

1:11:20

and he said on no less than four

1:11:22

occasions i quote

1:11:24

there are a small number of cryptos that

1:11:27

are not securities but very many of them

1:11:29

are unquote

1:11:32

right you couldn't be clearer than that

1:11:34

what does that mean

1:11:35

so let's say that you have to register

1:11:38

right like everybody else does with a

1:11:39

share offering

1:11:41

what is the issue well it means that you

1:11:43

literally have to register who owns this

1:11:46

stuff but who that what's wrong with

1:11:48

well there's nothing wrong with it

1:11:50

that's that's the ethical legal way to

1:11:51

do it the point is that's not what's

1:11:53

happening right now ralph no and that

1:11:56

changes

1:11:58

the point being is i just think it's the

1:12:00

wrong discussion

1:12:02

because it doesn't matter so let's say

1:12:04

they regulate so we all have to do it

1:12:06

like real vision does or microstrategies

1:12:08

does we all have to register everything

1:12:10

gets put down there's a certain

1:12:11

framework that is not based that has an

1:12:13

understanding of what digital assets are

1:12:16

and that people to operate or offer

1:12:17

these things have to go through some

1:12:19

regulatory framework i mean that's

1:12:21

normal right

1:12:22

well what you're missing raoul is that

1:12:24

if there are securities and you have to

1:12:26

register them then it's either

1:12:28

unethical or illegal

1:12:30

for most

1:12:32

political jurisdictions and most people

1:12:34

to own them or trade them

1:12:36

what happens is like for example it's

1:12:38

illegal for a congress person to promote

1:12:41

a security

1:12:43

it's unethical so what you're going to

1:12:45

find is that

1:12:47

a lot of the the crypto industry

1:12:50

structures

1:12:51

uh simplify in a rapid fashion

1:12:56

and you don't really need that many

1:12:58

right you need very few you don't need

1:13:00

the ten thousand you probably need the

1:13:03

one no that's right you certainly don't

1:13:07

people promoting it in the way that it's

1:13:12

because it is not right

1:13:14

um and you know that all of this stuff

1:13:17

needs to get cleaned up in certain ways

1:13:19

without question i think the bottom line

1:13:22

is there's a lot of regulatory cleanup

1:13:25

to be done and as it happens you're

1:13:27

going to see a shakeout in the crypto

1:13:29

industry

1:13:30

because well a year ago i told you sell

1:13:33

your gold buy bitcoin i don't think i

1:13:35

was wrong

1:13:37

today i would say sell your all coins

1:13:39

and buy bitcoin the conclusion is you

1:13:42

should sell the old coins you should

1:13:44

everybody is overestimating the

1:13:46

potential of the altcoins and they're

1:13:47

underestimating the potential of bitcoin

1:13:50

the value of true digital property that

1:13:53

is decentralized that is a commodity

1:13:56

that is within the regulatory framework

1:13:58

is huge and underestimated

1:14:02

and and over and over again what the

1:14:04

regulators are telling you like these

1:14:06

are direct quotes from gensor yesterday

1:14:08

stable coins may well be securities some

1:14:11

tokens are commodities many of them are

1:14:14

securities

1:14:15

defy is decentralized in name only

1:14:24

there are six thousand projects while me

1:14:24

some of these are commodities many of

1:14:26

them are securities under the law and

1:14:28

many of the platforms are that's what

1:14:30

he's saying he said it four times

1:14:33

and he's not wrong by the way

1:14:35

he's not wrong but michael making it

1:14:37

security doesn't make it illegal

1:14:40

you just need to register and if you

1:14:42

register you can do as you wish

1:14:44

within the securities laws so it doesn't

1:14:47

actually make a difference not like oh

1:14:50

everything's illegal it's like no you

1:14:52

need to register at it as a security and

1:14:55

operate within guidelines

1:14:57

of the

1:14:58

of the administration that you're in

1:15:00

yeah that's yeah the point is all the

1:15:02

exchanges where these things are trading

1:15:03

are not registered with the sec and the

1:15:06

d5 exchanges are not registered with the

1:15:08

sec so the only way they avoid complying

1:15:13

uh with sec laws is by maintaining that

1:15:16

they're commodities as opposed to

1:15:18

securities and as soon as they're deemed

1:15:21

as securities that means that the d5

1:15:23

exchanges have to shut down

1:15:26

right and the tokens have to stop

1:15:28

trading because they can't meet the

1:15:31

requirements of aml

1:15:33

kyc or they're trading with excessive

1:15:36

leverage

1:15:37

or they're trading without the

1:15:38

registration statement so

1:15:40

so that the entire industry shakes out

1:15:43

in a huge way and it's to the benefit of

1:15:46

the traditional institutional investors

1:15:49

to the detriment

1:15:50

of the crypto entrepreneurs

1:15:53

the people that are going to be the big

1:15:54

winners are going to be the ones that

1:15:56

have the publicly traded

1:15:59

traditional uh financial fintech

1:16:03

companies because they can harness this

1:16:05

the ones that are going to

1:16:09

suffer from the liability are the ones

1:16:11

that are attempting to create their own

1:16:12

coins in their own exchanges without

1:16:14

filing with the sec yeah and let's see i

1:16:18

think people will just file once they

1:16:20

give guidelines people should file and

1:16:22

then it's then it's sorted out and then

1:16:23

things survive or they don't survive and

1:16:25

it's as simple as that

1:16:27

so if they do file

1:16:29

then that means your 20x your 100x

1:16:31

leverage that went to 20x leverage

1:16:34

now has to go to 2x leverage good

1:16:38

i mean good i mean i understand that

1:16:39

we're headed yeah i personally don't use

1:16:41

leverage

1:16:43

which means which means the industry

1:16:44

matures and it stabilizes and the

1:16:47

volatility decreases the confidence

1:16:50

increases

1:16:53

the um

1:16:55

the competitive edge

1:16:57

of some people in the crypto space right

1:16:59

is offering that much leverage and if

1:17:02

you didn't have that competitive edge if

1:17:04

you can't offer that that range of coins

1:17:07

or that range of leverage or the ability

1:17:10

to do it without aml kyc then you're at

1:17:13

a competitive disadvantage you lose

1:17:14

market share so where's the market share

1:17:16

going to go right it goes it goes to

1:17:19

other players that maybe have bigger

1:17:20

brands or have

1:17:22

uh conventional assets right if i have a

1:17:24

billion people on my iphone

1:17:27

then maybe i can grab the entire space

1:17:30

so i so i think we're

1:17:32

we're going through this period and the

1:17:34

question is going to be how many years

1:17:36

will it take before that shakeout

1:17:39

and and can you

1:17:41

can you normalize yourself right i mean

1:17:44

the crypto exchanges are moving to

1:17:46

normalize and regulatory jurisdictions

1:17:48

it's pretty clear that you're not going

1:17:50

to be able to say i have no headquarters

1:17:52

right

1:17:54

and therefore i'm not going to file so

1:17:56

i mean if you boil it down i just think

1:17:58

the the upside on bitcoin is is

1:18:01

underappreciated and uh

1:18:07

the upside on the other cryptos is over

1:18:09

appreciated i think

1:18:11

i think uh

1:18:13

the opportunity here is

1:18:15

is uh go long on bitcoin

1:18:18

bitcoin is uh is a solution to

1:18:21

every tech company and every finance

1:18:23

company in the world and the fact that

1:18:27

his decentralized property and is deemed

1:18:29

as a commodity

1:18:31

means it is the innovation

1:18:33

everything else is speculation

1:18:36

and it's dangerous speculation

1:18:38

yeah i mean if you're talking if you're

1:18:40

referring to bitcoin as the base layer

1:18:41

which i believe in

1:18:43

then that is exactly the case and

1:18:45

everything else is a risk curve

1:18:47

there is not nothing else is the same as

1:18:49

bitcoin and anybody

1:18:51

who claims that it is

1:18:55

is lying

1:18:56

so you have to realize that everything

1:18:57

else is risk curve

1:18:59

and risk curves operate in financial

1:19:01

markets always have done

1:19:03

uh people want to take more risk and

1:19:05

and risk comes with downside or it can

1:19:07

come with upside

1:19:09

i think that you could think of it as

1:19:10

this the layer one

1:19:13

the core monetary asset

1:19:16

is bitcoin it's decentralized property

1:19:18

decentralized energy and a commodity the

1:19:21

layer twos there's there's going to be a

1:19:23

lot of maneuvering there as to whether

1:19:26

or not the layer twos or lightning or

1:19:28

whether layer two is another crypto

1:19:29

network that's permissioned or not

1:19:32

and there's going to be continual

1:19:34

jockeying back and forth because of the

1:19:36

aml kyc issues

1:19:39

around them can you construct a

1:19:42

decentralized exchange and you know that

1:19:45

that's that doesn't

1:19:47

implement aml kyc that will still be

1:19:50

deemed

1:19:51

as acceptable and that and that's going

1:19:53

to be a bit controversial and the layer

1:19:55

threes are going to be

1:19:57

are going to be the

1:19:59

the naidigs

1:20:01

and the paypals and the squares of the

1:20:04

world and the coin bases and

1:20:06

the finances

1:20:08

and the ftx's of the world

1:20:10

and the question is going to be what

1:20:12

jurisdictions will they operate on and

1:20:14

what range of products and services will

1:20:16

they offer right fidelity's been fairly

1:20:19

conservative

1:20:20

you know binance has been very

1:20:22

aggressive and then you've got and

1:20:23

coinbase is not nearly as aggressive as

1:20:26

binance or ftx

1:20:28

but even so coinbase is

1:20:30

you know uh if if you actually listen to

1:20:33

that testimony

1:20:35

you know gensler said uh

1:20:39

coinbase has not registered with us even

1:20:41

though they have dozens of tokens that

1:20:43

may be securities right so

1:20:45

so from his point of view i think he

1:20:47

would like to see

1:20:49

more registration

1:20:51

from even the onshore exchanges coinbase

1:20:54

does a great job of aml kyc and a lot of

1:20:57

tokens have been unlisted right d listed

1:20:59

from coinbase yeah did you see how a

1:21:01

uniswap d listed a hundred tokens did

1:21:04

they don't follow it yeah about a month

1:21:07

and there's a there's a

1:21:09

sec action with regard to uniswap i

1:21:11

think that um if you're an institutional

1:21:15

investor and you just want to make an

1:21:16

investment uh and sleep well at night

1:21:18

and hold it for a decade or a hundred

1:21:20

years then you buy bitcoin if you're a

1:21:23

crypto venture capital capitalist and if

1:21:26

you're looking for fast 100 x returns

1:21:30

and you're willing to like break all

1:21:32

this down

1:21:33

maybe you go into these other spaces but

1:21:35

i think you have to

1:21:37

study and parse every word that goes on

1:21:40

between the regulators and congress and

1:21:43

you and

1:21:44

if you're going to be in crypto ventures

1:21:46

you really need to be tracking very

1:21:47

carefully

1:21:49

the evolving regulatory you know

1:21:52

opinions of every jurisdiction from

1:21:54

china to europe to eu to you know

1:21:57

singapore to

1:21:59

whatever and you got a lot more anxiety

1:22:02

there's a lot more risk and maybe

1:22:03

there's upside i mean you talk about

1:22:06

risk curve you're on a risk curve yeah

1:22:08

you are and maybe there's catastrophic

1:22:10

risk in that as well i mean you know i'm

1:22:12

not a big player of that

1:22:14

alt space outside of eath really um

1:22:18

but i'm interested in it just because

1:22:19

i'd like to see how it develops because

1:22:21

it's just very interesting times now use

1:22:23

cases that get developed on one protocol

1:22:25

can end up on another

1:22:27

you know a lot of things can could end

1:22:29

up on the bitcoin protocol

1:22:31

and that's interesting

1:22:33

i think that the the technical

1:22:34

opportunity is digital finance

1:22:38

and digital finance means

1:22:40

i want to move my money at the speed of

1:22:42

light a million times a second to the

1:22:45

highest

1:22:46

the highest bidding counterparty

1:22:49

with uh with security right with trust

1:22:53

and so you can achieve that a number of

1:22:55

different ways

1:22:56

i don't think

1:22:58

i don't think that the old line

1:23:00

traditional finance companies will get

1:23:02

there very soon

1:23:04

right my money would be probably on uh a

1:23:09

crypto friendly exchange that got

1:23:12

that that managed the regulatory issues

1:23:15

with it you know with a degree of

1:23:17

deafness right

1:23:19

i mean the highest velocity is sitting

1:23:22

in the crypto exchanges but but they've

1:23:24

just got to work through the legal issue

1:23:26

they can work through the regulatory

1:23:27

issues

1:23:28

like kyc and aml and what tokens they

1:23:31

can list and not list and what and and

1:23:33

whether or not they're allowed to give

1:23:35

yield products or not

1:23:36

then i think they win otherwise then it

1:23:39

comes down to just a matter of marketing

1:23:43

like if apple were to get into the

1:23:45

business and offer you know

1:23:47

bitcoin on apple pay or something like

1:23:50

that or google

1:23:51

they've just got these massive marketing

1:23:53

machines or facebook

1:23:56

so the the the big guns haven't really

1:23:58

entered the space no but they're coming

1:24:01

the mid guns right square and paypal are

1:24:04

having some success

1:24:06

let's go i mean two-thirds of squares

1:24:08

revenue is bitcoin

1:24:09

like so you could make the the argument

1:24:12

who's created the most value

1:24:14

well coinbase has got a 50 60 billion

1:24:16

dollar market cap but square's got 125

1:24:18

billion dollar market cap

1:24:20

or is it paypal that's sitting on a 330

1:24:22

billion dollar market cap up a hundred

1:24:24

billion dollars you know and

1:24:27

somewhat

1:24:28

materially fueled by bitcoin exposure

1:24:30

and crypto exposure

1:24:33

so i think i think those are interesting

1:24:35

places to watch

1:24:37

but i i would say anybody that's going

1:24:39

to be a crypto investor probably ought

1:24:41

to parse every single word

1:24:44

coming out of

1:24:45

congress the senate and the regulators

1:24:48

there's changes coming they matter and i

1:24:51

don't think they mattered as much for

1:24:52

the last four years i think the market

1:24:54

was dominated from 2016 to 2020

1:24:57

by the offshore leveraged exchanges and

1:24:59

and it was the wild west

1:25:01

and i think that 2020 to 2024

1:25:05

this is the

1:25:06

institutionalization

1:25:08

that there is the good news is

1:25:10

there is broad consensus that this is

1:25:13

technology that's critical to the future

1:25:16

of the economy

1:25:18

and you have a lot of senators senator

1:25:20

toomey senator lumis

1:25:23

a lot of politicians a congressional

1:25:25

caucus

1:25:27

and you even have a lot of regulators

1:25:28

including genzer himself saying look

1:25:30

satoshi's innovation is real he said it

1:25:33

on the record

1:25:34

right the the subtext of everything by

1:25:36

the way raoul is that uh

1:25:39

the regulators are not questioning

1:25:42

whether bitcoin is commodity

1:25:44

that's the story right if there's one

1:25:46

story

1:25:47

so there is a lot of broad-based support

1:25:49

for digital

1:25:51

property and for decentralized property

1:25:55

and it's clear it's here to stay at

1:25:56

least in the western world

1:25:58

the chinese aren't quite so clear on it

1:26:01

and places where people don't like

1:26:02

property rights like cuba or north korea

1:26:04

who knows what they'll they'll do

1:26:07

but in the western world where property

1:26:09

rights are respected this is just

1:26:11

digital property and the consensus is if

1:26:14

you disclose it

1:26:16

if you if you if you let us know if you

1:26:18

pay your taxes on the capital gains when

1:26:20

you get capital gains and if you

1:26:22

if you abide by aml kyc uh procedures

1:26:27

then it's good property and it's an

1:26:29

alternative to real property or any or

1:26:32

security or anything else

1:26:34

so that

1:26:35

that's the good news

1:26:37

but the

1:26:39

the real uncertainty

1:26:41

is how is every regulatory jurisdiction

1:26:44

going to normalize this and then how

1:26:47

they're going to treat all the other

1:26:48

tokens

1:26:50

nobody knows

1:26:54

everybody's talking about it

1:26:56

yeah it's going to be very interesting

1:26:57

in the eu as well i mean there's a whole

1:26:59

lot of stuff so as you say regulation is

1:27:02

a feat is going to be a feature of our

1:27:03

lives

1:27:04

you know i know that the space

1:27:06

originally thought that it was could get

1:27:08

around regulation but it's not going to

1:27:10

it can't do well let me come back to one

1:27:12

last point which is everybody's caught

1:27:14

up in the sound and fury in this

1:27:16

you know the sound and the fury and the

1:27:18

and the noise and they're sifting

1:27:20

through 6 000 alt coins and trying to

1:27:23

figure out the future this and that and

1:27:24

the other

1:27:25

and then the the one big trade is right

1:27:27

in front of your face which is

1:27:29

bitcoins going up 130 percent a year

1:27:32

every year for a decade bitcoin is up

1:27:34

much more than that this year the cost

1:27:37

of capital if you pay if you're issuing

1:27:39

expensive junk debt is six and an eight

1:27:41

percent interest

1:27:42

the cost of capital for coinbase is

1:27:44

three point three seven five percent

1:27:48

interest

1:27:49

the average person's cost to capital on

1:27:51

a mortgage against their house is two

1:27:53

and a half percent interest

1:27:55

there's tons of money

1:27:57

you can borrow money at five percent you

1:28:00

can loan it out at a hundred percent

1:28:03

right if you're if if the only trade you

1:28:05

do is

1:28:07

you buy a

1:28:08

billion dollars of bitcoin with debt or

1:28:10

equity or whatever and sit there and

1:28:13

wait it's a pretty good trade and it's

1:28:15

and it's you don't need to

1:28:17

you don't need to take all these other

1:28:19

risks

1:28:20

it's like people ask me

1:28:22

are you lending out your bitcoin

1:28:24

are you trying to get yield i'm like

1:28:26

we're getting 130 yield on average for a

1:28:30

decade but we got 250 or whatever why

1:28:33

would i risk losing it all for five

1:28:35

percent more i mean i'm i'm the same i

1:28:38

don't do any of that because it's a risk

1:28:40

that i can't quantify and it's

1:28:41

unnecessary

1:28:42

buy a high quality property and wait and

1:28:45

and i would say take all that energy i

1:28:48

all these companies jumping through

1:28:51

hoops juggling razor blades to figure

1:28:53

out how to do something complicated

1:28:55

something simple is just take your

1:28:57

billion dollars of cash and credit

1:28:59

and convert it to bitcoin

1:29:02

all the balance sheets of the world all

1:29:04

the balance sheets of every company

1:29:06

they're sitting on cash and credit

1:29:08

that's crumbling

1:29:09

right it's not even debated everybody

1:29:12

knows

1:29:13

the debt

1:29:14

is is losing purchasing power everybody

1:29:17

knows the cash is losing purchasing

1:29:18

power and every one of these companies

1:29:21

has the ability to borrow money or raise

1:29:24

capital

1:29:26

you know at obscene rates right you're

1:29:28

you're raising capital at revenue

1:29:30

multiples that are obscene and you're

1:29:32

borrowing money at interest rates that

1:29:34

are lifetime low

1:29:37

so there's plenty of capital

1:29:39

there's one obvious trade

1:29:41

just convert crumbling cash and

1:29:44

crumbling credit

1:29:46

into digital energy into pure property

1:29:50

which is not

1:29:52

debasing or degrading

1:29:56

it's that simple it's a simple idea

1:29:58

people are it's almost too simple

1:30:01

so everybody has to look for the second

1:30:04

you know the second derivative the third

1:30:06

derivative some complicated idea

1:30:09

and i guess where i come back on is like

1:30:12

i'd rather spend a thousand hours

1:30:14

figuring out how to borrow the next

1:30:15

billion dollars

1:30:17

and buy bitcoin

1:30:18

then spend a thousand hours creating a

1:30:20

software company to do something

1:30:22

complicated with bitcoin or if or spend

1:30:25

a thousand hours studying looking for

1:30:27

the next bitcoin it's like

1:30:29

why don't you just borrow a billion

1:30:31

dollars at zero percent interest and buy

1:30:33

it and wait because

1:30:35

satoshi's innovation is real

1:30:37

it it's it's that simple

1:30:39

because people think the trade's gonna

1:30:41

run out well not till we get to like 200

1:30:44

trillion dollars it's not going to run

1:30:46

out i mean we're one trillion dollars

1:30:48

now at market cap

1:30:50

so you've got a 100x turn on that

1:30:53

yeah that's my point and 99

1:30:56

of the marketplace hasn't taken that

1:30:58

trade

1:31:00

and why is that it's like

1:31:02

there's no etf so i can't punch a button

1:31:05

it takes six months to figure out how to

1:31:07

buy the naked asset so make it easier

1:31:10

and the other reason they haven't taken

1:31:12

that trade is

1:31:14

is uh you know gap accounting optical

1:31:18

accounting optics

1:31:20

okay and and people say well are you

1:31:21

bothered by that and i think

1:31:23

actually i'm not bothered by that i mean

1:31:25

the truth of the matter is that

1:31:26

microstrategy the longer it is that uh

1:31:30

that people are afraid of the accounting

1:31:32

the longer we the longer we have as the

1:31:36

exclusive

1:31:37

you know

1:31:38

publicly traded buyer of bitcoin

1:31:41

if everybody else is afraid of

1:31:43

indefinite intangible accounting and i'm

1:31:45

not afraid of it then i just get to i

1:31:47

get exclusive on buying the stuff and i

1:31:50

guess

1:31:51

it's going up at 200 a year i don't

1:31:53

think i want it to go up any faster

1:31:55

if it went up a thousand percent i mean

1:31:58

didn't you lose the opportunity to buy

1:32:02

i'm not i'm not bothered by the fud

1:32:04

i describe it as like the shock wave

1:32:07

it's so disruptive that everyone's got

1:32:09

to have an opinion on it and so they're

1:32:11

forced to have an opinion without

1:32:12

spending a hundred hours or a thousand

1:32:14

hours to understand it so that's the

1:32:17

shock wave on one side

1:32:19

i'm not bothered by the accounting

1:32:22

because it's just optics

1:32:25

and uh and you know i making billions of

1:32:28

dollars while

1:32:30

while

1:32:31

you know you take a non-cash charge of

1:32:33

something which you can look through is

1:32:35

is actually kind of a differentiator for

1:32:38

a company if you're not afraid to go

1:32:40

through that then

1:32:41

then you've got a unique

1:32:43

value proposition to the marketplace

1:32:47

and uh you know the etf

1:32:49

it makes it it makes it hard for some

1:32:51

institutions but then that means maybe

1:32:53

they would rather buy stocks of

1:32:56

companies that are bitcoin friendly

1:32:57

right so

1:32:58

it's even the negatives are positives

1:33:01

and when the etfs come

1:33:03

well maybe my stocks not so unique but

1:33:06

on the other hand bitcoin will

1:33:08

appreciate by a factor of 10 because

1:33:10

there'll be a wall of money coming in

1:33:12

the space

1:33:13

you make it back that way all the ideas

1:33:15

tune out of all of the noise and just

1:33:17

look at the network adoption and then

1:33:18

that's it

1:33:19

and over time as you say the market cap

1:33:22

goes from a trillion to 100 trillion

1:33:26

and everything else is noise

1:33:28

how long it takes to get there kind of

1:33:30

irrelevant yeah i think so

1:33:32

michael brilliant as ever to spend time

1:33:34

with you picking your brains on this

1:33:36

stuff really fascinating

1:33:38

yeah thanks for your time ralph always

1:33:41

and i'll see you soon hey there

1:33:42

visionaries your free membership to real

1:33:44

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