Raoul Pal & Michael Saylor: BTC, Regulation & The SEC
Real Vision Finance · 2022-04-05 · 1h 33m · View on YouTube →
michael good to get back my friend
thanks for having me you know it's been
quite a tumultuous time since we both
first spoke i know we've spoken again i
think at the
crypto gathering but on the platform we
haven't spoken for a long time and that
kind of interview changed a lot of
people's lives i think
yeah it was interesting time then
yeah what was bitcoin like fifteen
thousand or something it was like
teens then yeah that was that was before
we started to see all of the advances
and the buys by the other companies so
what i'd love to dig in to start with uh
since then what are your learnings what
have you learned about the whole space
because as we all know this is a kind of
hugely evolving situation and we kind of
are figuring things out as we go so what
didn't you know then that you kind of
know now
well i i mean i think in every month for
the past 13 months there have been
positive developments uh
that give us more confidence in bitcoin
the the result of the election was a
positive development
the regulatory regime i think it's a
i think uh we we had zero public
companies holding bitcoin before
microstrategy and now there's like 25
maybe by the end of this year we'll have
about a dozen bitcoin miners that have
come public
and if you look at uh if you look at the
success of the miners like uh marathon
and riots and i think i just read
a few days ago that hud 8 is doing a
secondary offering
you've got uh you know you've got spacks
on the work from terawolf you've got
core scientific coming public
um
you've had coinbase come public right
since we last spoke
you've seen coinbase not just come
public in a billion dollar ipo
coinbase also brought a billion dollar
convertible offering to the market
and then just a couple of days ago they
brought a 1.5 billion dollar junk bond
offering to the market
and they upsized it to 2 billion
and they raised that money
at
3 and a half you know a blended rate of
three and a half percent interest
so you know what i've i've said from the
beginning is
it's important that we carve a channel
between
the ocean of traditional assets
and the crypto pond
right
and the ocean of traditional assets is a
hundred trillion dollars worth of of
debt
which is yielding nothing on a real
basis
and um and it's it's whatever 50
trillion 80 trillion dollars worth of
global equity
and it's hundreds of trillions of
dollars worth of uh commercial property
and residential property
and it's 80 trillion dollars worth of
cash and cash equivalents and things
like that
and the key to carving that channel is
the public markets
and so in a world where there are no
publicly traded companies no listed
registered companies
um
that can actually
cross the chasm
then the flow of capital into the entire
industry is just retail
and what we've seen is a rotation
right i mean if you'd ask who's driving
the industry
a year ago you would have said retail
investors with 10 20 30 125 x leverage
on an offshore exchange
and if you'd ask the question who's
driving the industry today
well it's a it's a hodgepodge of a lot
of different players i mean you've still
got you know the offshore exchanges but
now
they've allowed that they will back down
to 20x leverage
you know to be more conservative
so they're i mean they're
there's no doubt that offshore
crypto leverage money is is in the
system i think it drives volatility
in my opinion more than it drives
sustainability
if you want to see bitcoin go to 10
million dollars a coin
then it won't come from
125x or 20x offshore levered
contracts and traders it will come from
insurance companies
and uh and macro hedge funds that have
capital a hundred billion dollars of
capital and they just allocate five
percent of it to bitcoin forever
and when you start getting five percent
allocations forever
then uh then you'll start to build a
monetary base
and a capital base that will drive the
industry so
i i think in general
the the bullish developments of the past
12 months
have been institutional adoption of
bitcoin and uh and that has come in the
form of the companies the the squares
the teslas the micro strategies the
marathons the riots of the world that
are actually in the space
i i think that
the second thing that's that i've been a
big
a big proponent of a big cheerleader of
is if you're gonna be in the bitcoin
mining business
then you're naturally long bitcoin and
if you're naturally long bitcoin
you it's inconsistent to ever sell it so
if you're a bitcoin miner and bitcoin
goes to zero your business is worth zero
and if bitcoin goes up
and you sold your bitcoin your business
is worth 20 of what it would have been
worth
so if you really are bitcoin miner
you're long bitcoin which means you
huddle all the bitcoin and so at this
point i think you see
uh uh an emerging consensus in the past
12 months that if you're a bitcoin miner
you should never sell it
okay now that's only consistent with the
idea of bitcoin miners all coming public
in the north american markets
if you're a chinese bitcoin miner you
didn't have the capital markets to not
sell it you have to dump it on the
market right and the narrative was
always oh the miners are dumping they
have to sell their bitcoin right watch
the miners and if you're a bitcoin miner
ral in
europe
or you know if you were trading on the
canadian stock exchange or the european
stock exchange if you dig a little bit
deeper you'll find that those companies
had liquidity of like 2 million dollars
a day
a million dollars of trading a day 5
million a day on a good day
if you look at the liquidity and
marathon and riot
400 million a day
250 million a day incredible okay so
wake up call
you know you move from a cash business
to a you know to a small uh to the to
the secondary public markets
to the primary public markets when you
move to the primary public markets let's
take microstrategy microstrategies
microstrategy had a full market
capitalization of a billion dollars uh
before we you know in august of last
year with 500 million in cash
and uh
we've had days where we traded a billion
dollars worth of equity
now we have 500 million in liquidity a
day
okay so
what is that telling you
right the answer is
is as the companies in the space come
public and as they migrate
to the to the capital markets with the
greatest amount of capital
you know if you can raise equity capital
you know at a high multiple that's uh
that's cheap capital if you can raise
convertible debt
you know since we talked microstrategy
did a 650 million dollar debt offering
and paid 75 basis points but
then we followed up with a 1 billion 50
million dollar debt offering and paid
zero
interest
and then we followed up with a senior
debt offering
and we paid six and an eighth
on just junk debt there's nobody in the
space that thinks that bitcoin isn't
going up six percent a year no
nobody
so i you know the issue is
do you know how much i've actually how
much capital i've invested in bitcoin at
this point well no
three billion
three hundred
thirty five million dollars
that's pretty much okay so
one person yeah
but i didn't have 3 billion 335 million
dollars in my piggy bank when we last
spoke yeah
now
what happens if more than one person
does this row
how many people does it take right and
the answer is you need public entities
and they need to be credit worthy and
they need to be
able to file a registration statement
you know if you can file a registration
statement you can tap the fixed income
markets you can tap the convertible debt
market
you can tap
the the equity markets
and
and as you do that that capital becomes
permanent capital
right because
by the way there there are some
companies that can't own uh digital
property they can't own the underlying
property that is bitcoin
like if i if i have 10 billion dollars
in a um in a fixed income fund took me
30 years to establish my relationships
with my limited partners i've got a
charter i have a charge i can go and buy
fixed income right now my fixed income
instruments are yielding two percent or
two and a half or three percent
or i can buy micro strategy yielding six
percent it looks like a pretty fat
coupon to me
well we yeah we had lots of firms that
gave us 50 million dollar orders
after one conference call rel
you know we did that entire deal in one
day
one day
no one on ones
one conference call 130 firms on the
phone
okay i'll give you a 50 million dollar
order i'll give you a 25 million dollar
order i'll give you a 100 million dollar
order
and um
why do they do that well i mean you get
the moody's credit rating you get the s
p credit rating you're a public company
you package a security right a
derivative
of of a crypto asset called bitcoin it's
a bitcoin bond
and you put it out there and and they
can buy that thing
so
what what we've seen over the past 12
months is we've seen the creation of
public securities
a lot of people can buy you know 500
million dollars worth of marathon stock
or hundred million dollars worth of a
bitcoin mining stock but they can't buy
the bitcoin yeah they can buy the
convert they can buy the equity they can
buy the junk debt
they can but they can't buy the bitcoin
and of course people in the crypto
industry the crypto traders they don't
understand why right now like there's
still a group of people that think oh
well you need to buy it and and put it
in cold storage and keep your keys which
is
it's it's uh
you know what what i call it an
ideologically pure
approach
to the industry which works for a subset
of people
but when i'm talking to a guy that runs
a two billion dollar portfolio
if he went to his boss and said i want
to buy 25 million dollars worth of
bitcoin and hold my private keys he
would get you know between laughed and
fired right that's not happening in a
thousand years no matter how hard on the
other hand the guy can go like
okay so yeah this is good so what was
the interest rate again six percent okay
i'll take 25 million of that next he's
got another deal did the next day
so
i think that what we're seeing is the
maturing
of the industry the maturing of the
asset class
when jp morgan and morgan stanley start
started offering uh bitcoin funds like
the nydig back funds and the galaxy
backed funds that was a big
uh endorsement a big step forward and i
think we got what wells fargo
we've got morgan stanley we've got jp
morgan
they've all moved to offer those funds
that was a big deal and then i think
that when the etf comes
you know right now we've got etfs in
canada right i don't know if you saw
fidelity just went before the sec
this is fidelity this is fidelity for
the last 60 years they have like 10
trillion dollars of assets under
management and there are companies
that have been doing business with them
for 50 years or 30 years fidelity goes
in front of the sec
and they give a 20-page presentation on
why bitcoin is mature and why it's time
to approve a bitcoin etp in the united
states
and there's you know there's a lot of
institutions that they will take 10
million chunks and 50 million dollar
chunks of this stuff once there is an
etp of sorts
and uh roll the clock back 18 months
none of this the other thing that you
have championed is talking to the
corporates
and it's not been as easy
as we thought you know because of
accounting rules talk people through a
bit about that learning because you've
spoken to a ton you've helped them
you've given them all of the information
that they could possibly need but it's
still a slow process right
you know to be clear i think there are
two structural catalysts that will drive
an acceleration of the industry and a
bitcoin in particular one will be uh the
the availability of broad-based etps and
the u.s capital markets that will be a
big one
and we're watching that right now it's a
process the second will be the
normalization
of uh of accounting for bitcoin as a
financial asset
right now bitcoin is uh an indefinite
intangible asset um
when uh when we roll the clock back 24
months you couldn't find a publicly
traded company that had two million
dollars of this stuff on their balance
sheet so if you're a bunch of
accountants sitting around analyzing it
you would say there's there's no
compelling need
right to normalize this that no one's
got a hundred million dollars of this
stuff
right
there's a hundred trillion dollars of of
credit instruments and there's two
million dollars of bitcoin so i don't
think we're gonna
focus on this and i understand that but
indefinite intangible accounting
treatment says
you have you can mark it down and you
and you have to mark it down to the
lowest bid you can find on on the
exchange at any minute of the day since
the beginning of when you own the asset
and you can never mark it up again
so that's a negative right it's a
one-way ratchet function but it's it's
worse than a one-way ratchet function
it's like i bought a collection of
baseball cards for a million bucks and i
have to go to everybody i see at a party
for the rest of my life and ask them if
they'll buy my baseball card collection
for a number and if they tell me they'll
give me a thousand dollars i have to
mark the baseball card collection down
from a million dollars to a thousand
dollars
and if someone else if bill gates offers
me a billion dollars for the baseball
card collection i'm still carrying it on
my books as a thousand dollars
so it's it's prejudicial hostile you
know
accounting treatment and um
that of course is sub-optimal there's
another sub-optimal thing about it
which is when you do mark it down you
have to run it through your p l as an
operating loss
it's not even a below the line uh
you know it's a non-cash you know it's a
non-cash investment cost in theory but
not
per indefinite and intangible per
indefinite intangible
if facebook buys 50 billion of bitcoin
and it trades down ten percent and then
it trades up a hundred percent instead
of holding a hundred billion dollars of
assets they're showing 40
and then in the next you know quarter
they have a 10 billion dollar operating
loss against their 10 billion dollar you
know gain so they make no money in the
year
even though they made
50 billion dollars in the year okay so
what does that mean well
look if you're a pure play like
microstrategy and your investors
understand we have 114 000 bitcoin
you ignore all the rest you multiply 114
000
by 47 000 and change you're like oh they
have five and a half billion dollars
worth of bitcoin
okay and if it doubles they'll have 11
billion
and you divide the number of shares into
that and you come to a conclusion about
what you think the company's worth
okay that's that's wonderful but if
you're running apple computer or
facebook or google and you've got a
pristine p l
and you've got a pristine balance sheet
and if you're a conventional cfo
you would think well like i've i have a
perfect piano and a perfect balance
sheet and if i put this on the balance
sheet it's going to obscure the p l and
i'm secret pro formas
and it's going to obscure the balance
sheet and now it's another set of pro
formas and now i'm going to go from
telling everyone that i made 37 billion
last year with 120 billion in assets
to something hyper complicated it takes
a half an hour to parse
and most of them are conventional
traditional investors they don't want to
spend the time on it
so
the warren buffets of the world by the
way like he's totally fine owning apple
stock and coke stock on his p l but he
marks at the market every quarter
right whereas uh in this particular case
bitcoin critics you never hear a critic
say i spent 100 hours studying this and
let me break down my 13 concerns
and you never hear a critic say i spent
a thousand hours studying all this and i
looked at i took the course and i read
all the books and i listened to what
ralph said i looked listen to what
sailor said and here's my 92 point
rebuttal you never hear that what you
hear is somebody asked me what i thought
and
i didn't really know much so i said well
i don't understand it tulips i don't you
know whatever quick response
so uninformed pushback now
investors normally take the path to
least resistance
so i i think the current and definite
intangible accounting treatment is an
overhang
if bitcoin would go it'll probably go to
500 000 regardless
but if you wanted to go to 5 million a
coin or 10 million a coin
right the way you get to millions of
dollars of bitcoin is is you start to
market the market and you and you
treat it
at least at parity withholding
apple stock or coca-cola stock
and i think that i think that that
consensus is building in the marketplace
even amongst uh if you look right now
what's going on we have briefed the
regulators
right uh multiple times
we've also
we've gone in front of
uh i think 18 different entities have
gone in front of fasb this has become an
issue
they're in the pro they're in a review
process right now
they've actually asking for comment from
the community i think i'll probably
tweet something out on that in the next
couple of days if not if not in the next
day or two asking people to opine
and uh i think they've been they've
received briefings from institutional
investors from corporations from from
other accounting firms the like
and i'm confident at some point they'll
normalize it as a
as a financial asset i don't i can't
tell you whether it's a this year thing
or in two years or three years but
but you know that there's no real
compelling reason
to treat it
worse than you would treat baseball if i
bought baseball cards ralph it would be
better accounting treatment
if i just went and i bought like a bunch
of artwork and picassos
at an auction
it would be better accounting treatment
than buying bitcoin so so
irony is when the actual is the opposite
of the literal
and in actuality bitcoin is more
transparent
right as collateral as you've said
than
than uh blocks of stock and and
certainly it's a lot more transparent
than a lot of other illiquid assets
like buying timberland or a building
or or the like
so
at some point i think people will start
to realize that there's a rational way
to account for on a p l
on a balance sheet and
at the end of the period you probably
should market the market and if you're
up it's an investment gain and if you're
down it's an investment loss yeah and
you've been championing this by just
using the word property more trying to
anchor people on thinking of it as a as
a digital property is that what you're
trying to do there to get people to
start thinking of it in those terms
i i think that there's three metaphors
for bitcoin and i think one metaphor is
digital property
um
we're demonetizing the monetary premium
and your commercial real estate your
residential real estate your gold your
silver your commodities
there's a lot of things that have been
monetized right i mean in canada they've
got the current example where the prime
minister thinks the foreigners have
monetized
all the houses in canada so they cost so
much that nobody can afford a house
so
and the monetary inflationary regime
that we've seen for the past who knows
how many years uh you've seen monetary
premiums flow to all sorts of other
properties it's pretty obvious people
monetized da vinci's and picassos right
like artwork has become
monetary instruments as well
and um
the problem with monetizing
uh things with utility value
is if i monetize houses in tokyo no mere
mortal can ever afford to buy a house in
tokyo and that happened back in the 90s
right starting in 1990 the bank of japan
pumped so much money in the economy that
tokyo real estate was
obscene the same thing happened in new
york city where you know 10 million
dollars will buy you 4 000 square foot
apartment
well how does somebody making 300 000 a
year or 100 000 a year
live right you've monetized that uh that
asset so
so there's a problem with monetizing
those things the ideal thing to monetize
is is an instrument that has no utility
value which is what bitcoin is so
digital property is is the ideal
property it's the most desirable
property in space and time bitcoin is
the dominant digital property network
it's the most secure it has the most
durability it has the it's the most
decentralized
so therefore if you said to me where do
i put my billion dollars
such that any rich person on earth will
want it
and any rich person in the next hundred
years will want it bitcoin
if you buy a billion dollars of
buildings in new york city billionaires
in beijing can't use them
and and when the mayor of new york city
enjoins you or impairs you from evicting
your tenants
or taxes you're building
you can't pick it up and move it
to monaco or singapore so a billion
dollars of property in new york
or a billion dollars of land in kansas
or a billion dollars of houses in
vancouver
don't represent as high a quality
property as a billion dollars of virtual
bitcoin
because bitcoin can be moved at the
speed of light anywhere on earth that's
the first check the second check is
uh
if you have to hold it a hundred years a
building doesn't have a hundred year
life span
the rockefeller centers it's get or
another way to say it's got a
maintenance charge you have to reinvest
you know three to five percent a year
every year for a hundred years in order
to maintain a building and even if you
do that name one building in new york
city that's 150 years old it's
commercially viable today
the the useful life of a of a building
not that great how about the land
underneath the building better
buy blocks of new york city and that
that'll be good for a while but you've
got a property tax on it
the property tax you know and and you've
got the risk of uh seizure by eminent
domain
so
and you've got
you've got the meddling of the
neighborhood zoning board they can zone
your you know your 10 blocks to be
low density
yeah or they can zone it to be high
density and high density makes it worth
50 million dollars a block and low
density makes it worth a million dollars
a block
so imagine having the neighborhood the
mayor the governor every regulator in
the united states the white house
and congress all deciding whether or not
they will impair
your asset or your property
every year for the next hundred years
that's the problem with all with all
these properties but could they impair
bitcoin the same way to give it a carry
cost so there's a holding tax that you
have to pay every year or three percent
in line with property i mean that's
likely to happen right over time the the
basic principle is this raul
bitcoin is the apex property of the
human race
it's the hardest to impair
it's the hardest to seize
it's the hardest
to tax it's the easiest to move
it's the easiest to keep confidential
you can you can subdivide it
take your take your 10 acres of property
in new york city or 10 city blocks in
new york city divided into 97 000 pieces
and then rented out to 97 000 people
that live somewhere outside of new york
city
every hour
you understand what i'm getting which is
i can oscillate the property
at 60 megahertz
i i can move it at any frequency i can
subdivide it you know in any partition
and
if new york wanted to tax it i can move
it to wyoming or florida you see
yeah certainly the you know politicians
are going to attack stuff with tax when
you have a billion dollars of property
in beverly hills and when the governor
of california decides to tax it
how are you going to move that to miami
right so so my point is not that there
won't be taxes and there won't be
attempts to tax it but let's coming back
come back to the theory of like stolen
cars
a car thief can steal any car so why do
you bother to lock your door
you lock your door because
you know you figure you might as well
make your car just like 37 seconds more
difficult to steal than the car in front
of you or behind you
so they'll steal that car
and i think if you come back to bitcoin
as digital property
you can move it
unlike land
yeah
how do you move the domicile of apple
headquarters
you've seen the apple headquarters
that's not moving right so you can't
move the domicile of corporation you
can't move a factory you can't move land
in kansas you can't move a city block in
new york you can't move the rockefeller
center
okay can you move a billion dollars of
gold
at you know theoretically but
practically no right pretty it would
take you six months try smuggling a
billion dollars with the gold through
the airport think it's not easy maybe in
theory but you know they can pass a law
making it difficult to move the gold
can you move a billion dollars worth of
artwork
well sort of but you know you're still
you're dependent upon sotheby's and
christie's to value the artwork and it's
kind of esoteric you might get the crown
prince to buy your artwork but there are
a lot of people in the world that don't
really need your artwork try subdividing
a picasso by 97 000 into 97 000 pieces
lending it out on the weekend and then
recombine combining again on monday
morning not gonna happen
so
bitcoin
i can move it it's hard to confiscate
it's hard to tax but let's say well
let's come back to this tax issue i'm an
american citizen and you know no state's
going to get it no municipality is going
to be able to tax it miami taxes my
property two percent you know or florida
does i can't move my house
but i can move my bitcoin out of florida
but let's say that you know you're
really focused right and congress passes
a law saying every american must pay
two percent a year
to own bitcoin wealth tax yeah okay well
i mean let's get to the extreme well
they're going to tax everything else
first right i mean
that wealth tax is gonna they've already
basically put a property tax on every
piece of property in every state in the
country so
eventually let's say they get to that
point
and let's say that they combine that
with that you have to like give up your
passport pay an exit tax and live out of
the country for a decade before you
conduct that
okay fair enough
right that was yeah you you kind of got
me there but having said it
i can sell the property
okay so if i hold bitcoin in the us as a
us citizen at two percent a year for 50
years
okay i'm gonna pay a hundred percent of
the asset value to bitcoin
having said all that there's a person in
singapore that still will want to own a
billion dollars of
bitcoin you know
sell your billion dollar building in
manhattan to the person in singapore
when they put a two percent tax on the
building in manhattan the point is you
don't have the option to sell it it you
know it's not going to be that useful
and uh and then let's come back to the
other point which is
bitcoin you could think of it as digital
property
but you can also think of it as digital
energy
and if you think of it as digital energy
right all
all energy becomes matter all matter can
become energy there's conservation of
them you can either create nor destroy
that right
uh i could take money a billion dollars
of money turn into a billion dollars of
energy turn into a billion dollars of
products and services turned into a
billion dollars of property all of these
things are fungible in a socio-economic
system
and bitcoin is digital energy
then what's special about it is
let's take a million dollar let's take a
megawatt of power i if i have a megawatt
of power and i sell it on a commercial
grid at 11 cents a kilowatt hour it
works out to be about a million dollars
that's what it's worth
store a megawatt of power for for a
hundred years can't do it no
okay you lose two percent of the energy
and the best battery every month so your
half-life of electrical energy is three
years you can't store it can you move it
six percent is the transaction fee to
move at 500 miles
can you and you need a line build a
power line move it 500 miles past six
percent each time move it ten times okay
pay sixty percent move to tokyo can't do
it
store it for a hundred years can't do it
what happens if i mine bitcoin take an
s19 miner put it on a megawatt of power
convert it to bitcoin i've converted
electrical energy into digital energy
it's worth four million dollars of
bitcoin on an s19 miner an s19 miner
will spit out about a million dollars
worth of
of bitcoin
now what happens after i've digitized
the energy
it'll last forever
can i move uh you know four million
dollars worth of bitcoin move it to
tokyo
well two days ago someone moved two
billion dollars of bitcoin for like 78
cents row
78 cents to move 2 billion dollars of
digital energy anywhere on earth
people are like well it's slow
it takes an hour or half an hour on the
main chain that's hardly slight try
moving a billion dollars of gold or a
billion dollars of electricity 10 000
miles yeah okay build yourself the
pipeline to move a billion dollars of
natural gas 10 000 miles
can't move it at all chemical energy
doesn't move
we had contango in the oil market when
when petroleum prices went negative why
because you can't store oil
right store a billion dollars of oil as
an individual can't do it you can store
a billion dollars of bitcoin on an
android phone that cost 50 bucks
you can move it at the speed of light
they're discovering that in el salvador
right now by the lightning network we're
now moving
we're moving digital energy at the speed
of light at a transaction cost of one
satoshi
one two thousandth of a cent is the
price
now
it's a big idea but here's the idea
humanity has advanced via
via harnessing chemical energy
wind energy
right potential energy hydro energy
thermal energy
electrical energy
nuclear energy
and what's the end of it digital energy
if you convert those forms of energy
into digital energy
that energy has three properties that
are critical and people don't get this
the first property is the digital energy
has a half-life of forever
i can hold it for a hundred years
right the second property is digital
energy can be moved
at anywhere on earth for free
teleported
that's a big idea the third idea is you
can subdivide and oscillate the energy
any frequency at any scale
so what do i mean by that
or i'll i'll give you an illustration
i have 50 million dollars and i buy a
hotel in dallas texas
and it's got a hundred hotel rooms
now
i want to generate yield on the hotel
so
i let people book the rooms whatever the
prevailing rate is 100 a night
the average utilization in dallas texas
is going to be like 62
and my fixed costs are such that i get
about a 10 margin and if we fall below
62
i'm losing money i'm not getting any
yield in that
okay that's physical property now
convert that to energy pure energy i buy
bitcoin it's a it's a energy hotel what
does that mean
well now i can actually move the hotel
or or take the rooms of the hotel that
where there's no demand in dallas texas
and i can send them
somewhere else in space to get to a
hundred percent utilization
and when i get to a hundred percent
utilization obviously my profitability
jumps from ten percent to sixty percent
my yield goes through the roof
now having said all that
if every single room in the hotel was
booked every single day
then obviously the hotel's generating
higher yield
but
even if i booked every room in the hotel
every day people are only using eight to
ten hours a day of the rooms what if i
could subdivide the hotel down into room
hours
and if i could reclaim the 62 percent of
the room hours when the hotel is still
idle
now that's interesting now i get to 300
percent utilization
now here's a bigger idea
300 percent utilization at a hundred
dollars a room night turns my
profitability from 10 percent to
200 percent
what if i could actually sell room hours
anywhere on earth and i could go chase
after the highest marginal value of the
room hour so during the super bowl i put
the hotel where the super bowl is and
during the venice film festival i move
it to where the venice film festival is
and and if there's an inaugural event in
dc i moved the hotel there and then i
could double the room rate to twenty
dollars you know two hundred dollars a
day instead of one hundred dollars a day
what i have done is i've i've vibrated
that the energy or i've moved energy at
a higher frequency and i've captured a
higher marginal utility
and i've done it by dematerializing the
property to pure energy on a network and
i kind of just described the
the promise of d5
which could be c5 or d5 but this idea of
dematerialized finance but it's also
the collateral thing that i've been
talking about
because basically what you've got is a
piece of collateral that somebody's
going to want at some point
and therefore you can charge accordingly
for your collateral which you don't do
with treasuries because yields actually
go down when everybody wants collateral
it's kind of weird
but here you're getting the piece of
classroom that somebody wants so if
somebody's in financial stress they need
something they need collateral you can
lend it out instantaneously anywhere in
the world
and the classroom's never impaired
because it's on the blockchain it's kind
of it's a really fascinating concept
it's like tesla's concept of understand
frequency understand frequency and what
does that mean
high frequency high fidelity collateral
or high frequency high fidelity
energy in this particular case
if i have a billion dollars of gold i
put it in a vault what's the what's the
monetary velocity on that once every
decade yeah
yeah i can't lend i can't divide the
gold into a million pieces and lend it
every hour
the velocity you know the boy the best
way to get velocity on gold
is coin it right if i converted the gold
into coinage and we're trading the coins
like i can kind of move to a higher
velocity money bullion is low velocity
money if i go to the fiat system with
credit cards
a billion dollars spent by the credit
card system it takes 30 to 60 days to
settle
right when i give you a thousand dollars
you have to wait 30 days before you know
that the credit card company's not going
to claw back the money yeah so it's it's
a little bit tricky as a retailer
there's a two and a half percent fee to
every single time it changes hands
and the velocity is five
per year okay
now let's go to uh to digital energy
and then and the entire crypto space you
see what's going on the velocity you
know the final settlement is in an hour
well what if the final settlement is in
a second
let's just keep it at an hour you know
final settlements in an hour there's 8
700 hours in a year
so now i take my billion dollar block of
energy and i subdivided a thousand ways
and i move it back and forth every hour
and i chase after the person want to
give me the highest marginal yield on
the energy
and i you know how do you do that well
one computer talks to a hundred thousand
other computers a thousand times a
second a million times a second
while you're sleeping
and what you have is a financial system
that's continually
yield seeking looking for someone that
needs that loan
maybe it's a loan for a month
it's you know and you're either
borrowing or you're lending one or the
other right i mean i can lend it and
generate yield off it or i'm borrowing
i'm i'm seeking the person willing to
give me the lowest cost
loan
if you have um if you have a certain
amount of bitcoin let's say i have a
million dollars and i expected to
appreciate it 10 a year if my expense
ratio is less than my
appreciation rate i can borrow against
it forever with my
loan to value falling right my debt to
equity ratio will keep falling
i can spend five percent of my money
every year forever
as long as it appreciates that six
percent a year
assuming i've got a a bank that i trust
right
an effective banking system
so i i think that this idea of digital
energy is a very important one
it's important one because it makes it
the most disruptive force in the entire
energy industry
right you're converting every form of
energy into digital energy and and the
world's full of stranded energy that
what's the problem with energy you can't
store it right you can't store chemical
energy in the form of oil you can't
store it you can't store wind energy you
can't store solar energy you ever seen a
solar energy battery array
like i've i saw i've seen them i saw
someone with solar power and uh
and with windmills sitting on an island
in the bahamas and i looked at the
battery array the battery array takes up
a warehouse and you walk into it it's
all rusting
it's all going to rust within five years
it's a nightmare
to store uh renewable energy you know
anywhere where there happens to be water
vapor and the cost is obscene
so every single form of energy you can't
store it one third of it is wasted
and and so converting energy into
digital energy
is critical because
you move it anywhere at the speed of
light it lasts forever
and you can oscillate it at any
frequency at any scale
and uh and that means
tapping harness the value of it
to the
a degree that is inconceivable but
before the digital energy is also
interesting of course to any investor
it changes banking
right you know it could totally change
the way you think about banking and
finance and yield
and of course
think about a world rall where
everybody's taking their excess money
and they're buying
you know the conventional store of value
for middle class citizen is oh i buy a
rental home
you know i had a guy that worked for me
you know he quits my employ because so
he can buy three
rental homes rental properties and he
rents them out
okay well that's fine but on the other
hand if you had five hundred thousand
dollars and your choice is i'm going to
have physical property and a domicile or
jurisdiction that can be impaired by
circumstance acts of god acts of
politician
it's like how you rent something in like
you know
eastern virginia during a drone and also
anybody's ever done that trade and we've
all done it we've all bought places to
rent out it's a [ __ ] nightmare
the actual effort you need to do to rent
something out versus owning an asset
like bitcoin we virtually have no effort
the difference is extraordinary bitcoin
is not going to spring a leak you know
there's not going to there's not going
to be a property tax you don't have a
maintenance charge it doesn't spring a
leak it doesn't burn down there is no
imminent don't have to evict your
tenants you know nothing yeah yeah all
sorts of things like that it's it's
it's it's unique well in this respect
property is is is superior to a security
for so many different reasons
if you own property from a
from a
from a custodianship point of view it's
superior to security it's
you know there's no way that a mayor a
senator a congress person is going to
stand up in front of congress and say
my apple stock
is a superior store of value to the u.s
dollar
you can't do it it violates every ethics
rule
right it violates a if it doesn't
violate a whole host of laws it violates
ethics rules plus
when you're promoting a security
you're taking counterparty risk
right you're you're dependent upon the
the acts of the board the acts of the
ceo you've got the domicile
gary ginzer's on television today
talking about how the chinese don't
allow us to audit chinese auditors and
maybe you can't trust a company
in china there's all sorts of issues
with the security so name me the
properties i got gold
you know gold's got no velocity
you know i got timberland
okay so the average person how do you
buy 10 million dollars of timberland and
harvest timberland
i got natural gas rights
that's great but if there's no
pipeline going to natural gas how do you
sell your natural gas
right i got picassos oh yeah that's not
a manipulated market right arch
right like it's a very esoteric market
how many people can buy 37 000 or 37
worth of like rare art
silver
diamonds
okay what's the property
that's that that i can trust
right and the answer is bitcoin because
it is truly decentralized and it is
homogeneous and yet has it has been
anointed as property it's a it's a safe
haven the irs has its property
the the sec says its property
and it
i'll make one last point bro
it's fungible property across time and
space
for example
one bitcoin equals one bitcoin today
and
if i
decompose it to a hundred bitcoin a
hundred you know one million satoshis
and put it back together again you know
i've still got the same thing
and at the same time one bitcoin in 10
years is going to be one bitcoin it's
going to be the same quality it's going
to be 1
21 millionth of all the monetary energy
in the network forever
that's not the same with your house if
you bought a lake house
and on lake tahoe you know to air b and
b it out in decade it may not be as high
a quality as today you have to invest
huge amounts of maintenance to maintain
as new
even if you do that it's still going to
be dated in 30 years there's no way to
avoid
the property maybe you bought the most
beautiful lake house in lake tahoe and
in 30 years someone builds a condo next
to it because some politician rezoned
the land to your left and your right and
nobody wants to stay in your lake house
if it didn't sink into the water if
something else didn't happen
even if you're the perfect landlord
and so this idea that i can have a pure
pristine property in time and space
that i can decompose and recompose that
i can oscillate
that i can program
this is unique in the history of the
world there's nothing comparable to this
and we have not
we have not developed this
this is property that anybody with a
computer can develop i can write a
computer program to move this stuff
around
some kid
in zimbabwe can write a computer program
on a android phone
that can they can create value from your
digital energy or your digital property
that they're not going to develop
real estate in new york city
nobody you know and can your your
timberland and wherever it is montana is
not going to get developed by some
intelligent hacker in singapore
so you're tapping into
something which is incredibly powerful
and conceivable before now
most people still just they don't have
their hands around it
if you energy digital energy is the
technical metaphor
that says this is the technical
imperative for facebook and google and
apple and everybody with a computer you
know programming capability or a cpu
chip digital property is a macroeconomic
metaphor
100 trillion dollars is going to flow
out of real property to digital property
digital money
that's the political metaphor digital
money is the most controversial i prefer
to stay away from it
it's much easier it torques off all the
politicians and all the mainstream and
everybody doesn't understand it and they
just get all worried you know it's going
to topple
the government or it's going to
undermine the status quo so if you leave
that and you say it's digital energy
it's just energy with a half-life of a
million years that you can oscillate at
60 megahertz on a mobile phone for eight
billion people
it's digital property it means every
middle-class person
can store their life savings in property
and get yield on it from the highest
bidder everywhere in the world every
second of the day and they don't have to
stress out
about the property burning down
when you understand those two things you
step back you say what am i going to do
and the answer is
i'm just going to own it
i'm just going to own it man just buy it
and let everybody else figure this stuff
out a hundred thousand
entities are going to come up with a way
to utilize digital energy or develop
digital property
just own it yeah because network
adoption it'll just keep working it's
magic so here's another thing i want to
think through because i don't really
know the answer to this
humans are humans and we're going to
create leverage
and we talked about the monetization or
the financialization of assets
and we see us at retail levels you
talked about this 20x 100x
but we're going to see it at scale again
because that's what humans do
is that going to change some of the
properties of what this looks like in
the future are we going to introduce
some of the risks and some of the
downside
that it doesn't really it's not really
there in this marketplace now i i think
that the number one
the number one critique right now of
bitcoin is it's volatile but i don't
think it's volatile because it's digital
property or digital energy or because of
all of the
constructive uses of it i think it's
volatile because there's too much
leverage in the offshore crypto
exchanges and the alt coins
i think that i think that what's
happening is someone buys an altcoin
with a 10x lever it moves up 20 percent
they cross collateralize into the second
altcoin and then they
somehow collateralize that or they tie
that into bitcoin
i think that 20x and 100x leverage and
the offshore
crypto exchanges has been driving the
volatility in bitcoin and i think that
as we come off of that i i think that
we're not going to see 20x leverage
the coinbase doesn't offer 20x elaborate
no but i but the investment banks will
you know because they can't help
themselves because that's where they see
money is i'm going to give somebody else
a bigger financial player a hedge fund
for example
this kind of leverage well i mean like
we just saw
we just saw the equity swap issue with
archigos
play out but i can tell you that i've
traded with all the wire houses for 30
years with hundreds of millions of
dollars they never offered me an equity
swap
okay it's not very common to be able to
get an equity swap even if you have a
500 million dollar portfolio so 99
maybe 99
everybody i know they're not trading
with equity swaps that the highest
amount of equity or the highest amount
of leverage you see in conventional
markets is like 50 50 or 2x leverage
and so i i'm not really concerned about
that the future of bitcoin is
transitioning into the public
markets and the institutional investment
markets where the leverage is normally
going to be
2x
or or less and i think that it'll be d
levered more than it'll be levered i
think that
if you look at the velocity of the
crypto market
people are taking 10x and 20x trades
and uh and those things are being marked
to market every minute of the day on the
weekend with forced liquidation the
reason you get you know you get
volatility
is when you put 10x or 20x through
something that's got if i have a if i
have a two billion dollar market cap and
30 million dollars of this stuff is
trading and i lean on it with 20x
leverage
against something you know something
else then i'll move that number if i'm
cross collateralized
and i'm able to go back and plug that
into bitcoin you'll actually drive some
bitcoin volatility
but you know the volatility is coming
from the crypto markets it's not coming
from conventional users of digital
property or traditional institutions and
also what's very different about this
market
is if you take leverage in the new york
stock exchange or the futures market you
have margin somebody calls you up and
says you need to pledge more capital the
crypto markets are the opposites like we
control your margin we'll liquidate you
immediately you get no choice so you
kind of know what you can lose
in futures markets you don't know what
you can lose because in the end if you
can't pay your collateral the next day
your margin the next day you're in
[ __ ] street
yeah i i think the conclusion is look if
you if you look at where gensler is
going you know
and where the regulators are going
they're going to regulate the stable
coins they're going to regulate the d5
exchanges like unit swap they're going
to put more regulation on the offshore
crypto exchanges
as they they're going to put more
regulation on the onshore exchanges and
as they do that one of the consequences
is leverage is going to get taken out of
the system
the the obscene amounts of leverage
comes from
you know defy
combined with offshore 20x
right
and if you go onshore
it's kind of hard to generate a 200x
leverage play in fact as i said before
so i you remember what happened when
bitmex went offline yeah you know when
they brought charge against bit i was
trading in the market roll and i you
know so i like looking at it every
minute of the day
like i very very trading in it like
having the skin played off your back if
if you saw something go wrong
like i watch bitcoin go from
9 500 a coin to 10
500 a coin in three minutes
you know
like while i'm on the phone and then i
went to bed and i was short
i was trying to buy it at 9 500. i was
short and i went to bed and it came back
to me
by 3 p.m the next day but i damn near
had a heart attack right
like literal heart attack when bit max
went offline i watched half the velocity
disappear
so i have half the volatility
disappeared like you could literally see
like the volume got cut in half and the
volatility came way in and so
i think that um you've seen you're
seeing progressive waves
of normalization as as these markets get
less levered and i think that that's
going to continue
over time i
i don't know that it will end tomorrow
but
obviously my long-term thesis as you
look out two three four five years
as as more and more large institutions
hold this with less and less leverage
the volatility
on bitcoin decreases yeah and as as
network effects take hold and more
people own it becomes less volatile just
because the nature of the number of
people buying and selling each day just
just lowers that over time so here's a
final question i want to
think about is okay let's go out ten
years now
and just think about
okay this there's this kind of digital
asset world with d5 and everything else
where's bitcoin's role
in that as the apex predator what does
that mean does it mean all d5's on on
bitcoin or it's a broadly spread digital
asset world with this new technology and
bitcoin is the kind of base layer
collateral of the entire thing how do
you think about that i think the bitcoin
is the most decentralized
um
digital property right it's it's the
highest quality digital property
we want to create a digital property
running on a decentralized network
that's owned by everyone and no one
like that that's the real key it can't
it can't pass the howie test
it you know we can't have no one can
shut it down
you can't have people upgrading it every
quarter or every six months you can't
have a ceo of it you can't have a cto of
it
you can't you know you need to have
something completely decentralized
once you've got that now the the
velocity of the digital property again
when you call it digital energy you
start to see it differently
you realize
you can accelerate it on on layer two
platforms
and there are a lot of decentralized
layer two platforms so so
lightning is a decentralized layer two
platform you could say that many of the
other cryptos
to the extent that they're decentralized
their layer two platforms right
there there's going to be a battle to
see which cryptos are truly
property versus which ones are security
and gensler has said that on no less
than four different occasions he thinks
many of these cryptos are security so
so as we start to see more guidance
there he's also said some tokens are
commodities so as we sort out which
token is commodity and which token is
security you're going to have a
competition of of layer 2
tokens the the lightning network runs on
a layer to on a token which is bitcoin
right which is an interesting thing but
but i think that you're going to see uh
a competition there and then you can see
layer threes and layer threes i define
is
as
c5
centralized uh finance applications like
square
or paypal or coinbase or binance
right all of those are moving large sums
of bitcoin at high velocity
you you know square's got 30 or 40
million customers and you can move any
amount of bitcoin from square cash tag
to square hashtag instantly for free
so
as you start to see those
they're going to create an accelerated
finance
between you and me i'm not sure that
decentralized finance needs
a decentralized layer two
it needs a decentralized layer one like
you need digital energy to exist in
order to
move it at the speed of light a hundred
thousand times an hour across a hundred
jurisdictions in order to do yield
farming so you need digital energy and
bitcoin is you need one do you need two
not not necessarily you need one digital
token that you can move at the speed of
light a million times a second
if i've got that
jp morgan can get in this space
coinbase can get in this space square
can get in the space square's a bank
you know like there's this quiet you
know coinbase wants to have a lend
product that has yield
the sec says that's a security
they can't offer it
okay well you
they didn't say you can't offer it they
said you actually have to register it
under the sec 40 act
there are plenty of organizations that
offer money market funds
with yield you're either a bank
and you offer a savings account with
yield and you subject yourself to
banking regulation or
you're uh you're issuing a security and
then you have to file that with the sec
you're running a fund
you know and the knight eggs of the
world and the fidelities of the world
they're filing their you know their
funds
you know with the sec and they're
getting sec authorization for that
so i i think that um there's going to be
a massive competition
and and there's a market competition
will will um
centralize regulated entities in the u.s
that have gotten certified funds
approved by the sec
will they
create that opportunity
will square and paypal with mobile apps
will will they do it on a mobile app
they they probably also need to get sec
approval to offer it as a mobile app
right
just because you have a mobile app
doesn't mean you don't have to you know
you saw abra has this issue where
they have to get approval from the new
jersey authority to offer a yield
product on a mobile app
so you're going to have
the technology players wanting to get
into space call it fintech you're going
to have traditional players like
fidelity
wanting to get into space for
traditional funds
you're going to have these interesting
lightning based things that want you
know there's there's non-custodial
wallets and lightning like moon and
breeze then there's custodial wallets
like shivo
right and shibo's got you know can shiva
move bitcoin around with a banking
license sure they can why because el
salvador made bitcoin legal tinder you
know so that's why they can
then you're going to have
you're gonna have uh the crypto space
you know with ethereum and cardano and
you know and binance smart chain and
salon and all the rest competing
and
you're gonna have all sorts of issues of
competition versus you know technology
versus regulation and then you're gonna
have jurisdiction and
you know binance and and ftx are
offering very innovative products but
they're not offering them in the us
so so what will happen and the answer is
stay tuned
stay i just watched yesterday a senator
to me
asked gary gensler can you plea you know
is a stable coin a security and gensor
said it well maybe
he didn't say it was he didn't say what
he said maybe
and toomey said well it doesn't seem
like it to me
and get you know because i'm not
pursuing profit of course in gensler's
response might very well be you have
people on the other side of the trade
the people that issued the stable coin
are trying to borrow 60 billion dollars
at zero interest and lend it out at 60
basis points they're pursuing a profit
this is why it's an it's an unregistered
money market fund and you've got to come
and register with us
so they went back and forth and the
other day to me said you need to give me
clarity
okay instead of actually regulation by
enforcement why don't you actually
publish something
okay and gensler is kind of saying i
hear you
now what's gonna happen
what's gonna you know like
i think we can expect over the next 12
months you're actually going to see
more guidelines about you know about
this
but it's pretty clear to me in the last
12 weeks
that if you really want to win the d5
space in the next decade
i i think the winners row are going to
be the publicly traded uh institutions
that know how to navigate the corridors
of power
right
you know that the ones that if you can
take your company public
and you can raise uh 10 billion dollars
via a registration statement
then
i think uh
i think you're going to be a big
advantage i think the fidelity issuing
an etfs is going to be a big advantage
if they get their etf
approved i think the nydig's gonna have
a big advantage
i think the people that are trying to
operate outside of that system if you
can't tap into the public markets
like it i don't know if you noticed i
just saw nearly 400 million dollars
worth of equity into the public market
by a registered atm
and uh and then i converted into bitcoin
and i did that uh
in four weeks three weeks
okay so
in four weeks
not that much effort i put 400 million
dollars into this ecosystem and it took
the you know how long it took me to
gather the first 400 million dollars
30 years
30 years of 2 000 people going through
millions and millions of transactions to
get the first 400 million
few weeks
a couple people get the next 400 million
why
because we're publicly traded because we
follow the registration statement
because we can tap the capital markets
ginzor says this to the to the senate
yesterday i quote
if it stays outside of the public policy
framework for aml tax compliance and
investor protection
it is not going to long persist
unquote i think that's pretty clear what
he's trying to tell you the issue i've
got with all of this is i get the aml i
get the tax stuff
it's this stupid securities law from
1933 1934
that doesn't make sense
it makes it highly restrictive
in who is able to access certain things
it's that what is a security is
we're trying to fit something into a
wrong framework yeah right i mean that's
the that's what the crypto guys because
anybody can buy a house if you say it's
a property everybody should be able to
buy it
yeah but ral if i created my own mikey
coin and then i pumped it on twitter and
i dumped it on the retail population
after i gave a bunch to a celebrity who
then told the world it was great
it's illegal yeah and it's unethical the
truth of the matter is if you have a
centralized group of people creating a
token which is a security giving it to
themselves and then selling it on the
market and representing it as a
decentralized property you're crossing
an ethical line and you're also crossing
a legal line and you can't you can't
avoid the ethical responsibility and the
legal responsibility
uh simply by saying oh it's new tech
nobody's saying that what i'm saying is
to
classify as a security is not the right
way of stopping that it doesn't stop it
in equity markets it doesn't stop it in
the vc market doesn't stop it at all
what it is is it makes it more
restrictive for people now
that
nervous behavior needs to be regulated
if you understand securities law you
understand that they are securities if
if i actually create 10 million tokens
and i give 5 million to me and my four
you know
my four uh compatriots and then we start
marketing the rest and we do it without
a registration statement without
disclosing who owns the security it is a
security you are violating securities
law the law is black and white it's and
so the only people that think it's not a
security are people that don't know the
law
right
if you look at everybody in the crypto
space
outside of bitcoin i think that most of
them have never taken a company public
they don't have general counsels
right they don't understand securities
law as it stands
like i i can't go
it would be inappropriate and unethical
and illegal for me to go and give a
million shares of microstrategy to a
quarterback
and then have him stand up and say micro
strategy coin is the future on twitter
right the whole point of securities laws
is i have to disclose that via an 8k
there's there's all sorts of obligations
and the and the reason why is because
i've diluted
every other security holder
and and that guy's making a
representation
that you know
that that uh is closeted in another
another situation
so
you really have to have a grasp of
securities law here
and uh
the person who's actually most informed
on securities law who is also most
informed on crypto is gary ginsler he's
he actually knows more about cryptos
than just about anybody i know in the
crypto space and he also knows more
about securities and commodities law
than anybody in the crypto space
and he said on no less than four
occasions i quote
there are a small number of cryptos that
are not securities but very many of them
are unquote
right you couldn't be clearer than that
what does that mean
so let's say that you have to register
right like everybody else does with a
share offering
what is the issue well it means that you
literally have to register who owns this
stuff but who that what's wrong with
that
well there's nothing wrong with it
that's that's the ethical legal way to
do it the point is that's not what's
happening right now ralph no and that
changes
fine
the point being is i just think it's the
wrong discussion
because it doesn't matter so let's say
they regulate so we all have to do it
like real vision does or microstrategies
does we all have to register everything
gets put down there's a certain
framework that is not based that has an
understanding of what digital assets are
and that people to operate or offer
these things have to go through some
regulatory framework i mean that's
normal right
well what you're missing raoul is that
if there are securities and you have to
register them then it's either
unethical or illegal
for most
political jurisdictions and most people
to own them or trade them
what happens is like for example it's
illegal for a congress person to promote
a security
it's unethical so what you're going to
find is that
a lot of the the crypto industry
structures
uh simplify in a rapid fashion
and you don't really need that many
right you need very few you don't need
the ten thousand you probably need the
one no that's right you certainly don't
need
people promoting it in the way that it's
done
um
because it is not right
um and you know that all of this stuff
needs to get cleaned up in certain ways
without question i think the bottom line
is
is there's a lot of regulatory cleanup
to be done and as it happens you're
going to see a shakeout in the crypto
industry
because well a year ago i told you sell
your gold buy bitcoin i don't think i
was wrong
today i would say sell your all coins
and buy bitcoin the conclusion is you
should sell the old coins you should
everybody is overestimating the
potential of the altcoins and they're
underestimating the potential of bitcoin
the value of true digital property that
is decentralized that is a commodity
that is within the regulatory framework
is huge and underestimated
and and over and over again what the
regulators are telling you like these
are direct quotes from gensor yesterday
stable coins may well be securities some
tokens are commodities many of them are
securities
defy is decentralized in name only
there are six thousand projects while me
some of these are commodities many of
them are securities under the law and
many of the platforms are that's what
he's saying he said it four times
and he's not wrong by the way
he's not wrong but michael making it
security doesn't make it illegal
you just need to register and if you
register you can do as you wish
within the securities laws so it doesn't
actually make a difference not like oh
everything's illegal it's like no you
need to register at it as a security and
operate within guidelines
of the
of the administration that you're in
yeah that's yeah the point is all the
exchanges where these things are trading
are not registered with the sec and the
d5 exchanges are not registered with the
sec so the only way they avoid complying
with
uh with sec laws is by maintaining that
they're commodities as opposed to
securities and as soon as they're deemed
as securities that means that the d5
exchanges have to shut down
right and the tokens have to stop
trading because they can't meet the
requirements of aml
kyc or they're trading with excessive
leverage
or they're trading without the
registration statement so
so that the entire industry shakes out
in a huge way and it's to the benefit of
the traditional institutional investors
to the detriment
of the crypto entrepreneurs
the people that are going to be the big
winners are going to be the ones that
have the publicly traded
traditional uh financial fintech
companies because they can harness this
the ones that are going to
uh
suffer from the liability are the ones
that are attempting to create their own
coins in their own exchanges without
filing with the sec yeah and let's see i
think people will just file once they
give guidelines people should file and
then it's then it's sorted out and then
things survive or they don't survive and
it's as simple as that
so if they do file
then that means your 20x your 100x
leverage that went to 20x leverage
now has to go to 2x leverage good
i mean good i mean i understand that
we're headed yeah i personally don't use
leverage
which means which means the industry
matures and it stabilizes and the
volatility decreases the confidence
increases
but
the um
the competitive edge
of some people in the crypto space right
is offering that much leverage and if
you didn't have that competitive edge if
you can't offer that that range of coins
or that range of leverage or the ability
to do it without aml kyc then you're at
a competitive disadvantage you lose
market share so where's the market share
going to go right it goes it goes to
other players that maybe have bigger
brands or have
uh conventional assets right if i have a
billion people on my iphone
then maybe i can grab the entire space
so i so i think we're
we're going through this period and the
question is going to be how many years
will it take before that shakeout
and and can you
can you normalize yourself right i mean
the crypto exchanges are moving to
normalize and regulatory jurisdictions
it's pretty clear that you're not going
to be able to say i have no headquarters
right
and therefore i'm not going to file so
i mean if you boil it down i just think
the the upside on bitcoin is is
underappreciated and uh
and
the upside on the other cryptos is over
appreciated i think
i think uh
the opportunity here is
is uh go long on bitcoin
bitcoin is uh is a solution to
every tech company and every finance
company in the world and the fact that
his decentralized property and is deemed
as a commodity
means it is the innovation
everything else is speculation
and it's dangerous speculation
yeah i mean if you're talking if you're
referring to bitcoin as the base layer
which i believe in
then that is exactly the case and
everything else is a risk curve
there is not nothing else is the same as
bitcoin and anybody
who claims that it is
is lying
so you have to realize that everything
else is risk curve
and risk curves operate in financial
markets always have done
uh people want to take more risk and
they
and risk comes with downside or it can
come with upside
i think that you could think of it as
this the layer one
the core monetary asset
is bitcoin it's decentralized property
decentralized energy and a commodity the
layer twos there's there's going to be a
lot of maneuvering there as to whether
or not the layer twos or lightning or
whether layer two is another crypto
network that's permissioned or not
and there's going to be continual
jockeying back and forth because of the
aml kyc issues
around them can you construct a
decentralized exchange and you know that
that's that doesn't
implement aml kyc that will still be
deemed
as acceptable and that and that's going
to be a bit controversial and the layer
threes are going to be
are going to be the
the naidigs
and the paypals and the squares of the
world and the coin bases and
the finances
and the ftx's of the world
and the question is going to be what
jurisdictions will they operate on and
what range of products and services will
they offer right fidelity's been fairly
conservative
you know binance has been very
aggressive and then you've got and
coinbase is not nearly as aggressive as
binance or ftx
but even so coinbase is
you know uh if if you actually listen to
that testimony
you know gensler said uh
said
coinbase has not registered with us even
though they have dozens of tokens that
may be securities right so
so from his point of view i think he
would like to see
more registration
from even the onshore exchanges coinbase
does a great job of aml kyc and a lot of
tokens have been unlisted right d listed
from coinbase yeah did you see how a
uniswap d listed a hundred tokens did
they don't follow it yeah about a month
ago
and there's a there's a
sec action with regard to uniswap i
think that um if you're an institutional
investor and you just want to make an
investment uh and sleep well at night
and hold it for a decade or a hundred
years then you buy bitcoin if you're a
crypto venture capital capitalist and if
you're looking for fast 100 x returns
and you're willing to like break all
this down
maybe you go into these other spaces but
i think you have to
study and parse every word that goes on
between the regulators and congress and
you and
if you're going to be in crypto ventures
you really need to be tracking very
carefully
the evolving regulatory you know
opinions of every jurisdiction from
china to europe to eu to you know
singapore to
whatever and you got a lot more anxiety
there's a lot more risk and maybe
there's upside i mean you talk about
risk curve you're on a risk curve yeah
you are and maybe there's catastrophic
risk in that as well i mean you know i'm
not a big player of that
alt space outside of eath really um
but i'm interested in it just because
i'd like to see how it develops because
it's
it's just very interesting times now use
cases that get developed on one protocol
can end up on another
you know a lot of things can could end
up on the bitcoin protocol
and that's interesting
i think that the the technical
opportunity is digital finance
and digital finance means
i want to move my money at the speed of
light a million times a second to the
highest
the highest bidding counterparty
with uh with security right with trust
and so you can achieve that a number of
different ways
i don't think
i don't think that the old line
traditional finance companies will get
there very soon
right my money would be probably on uh a
crypto friendly exchange that got
that that managed the regulatory issues
with it you know with a degree of
deafness right
i mean the highest velocity is sitting
in the crypto exchanges but but they've
just got to work through the legal issue
they can work through the regulatory
issues
like kyc and aml and what tokens they
can list and not list and what and and
whether or not they're allowed to give
yield products or not
then i think they win otherwise then it
comes down to just a matter of marketing
like if apple were to get into the
business and offer you know
bitcoin on apple pay or something like
that or google
they've just got these massive marketing
machines or facebook
so the the the big guns haven't really
entered the space no but they're coming
the mid guns right square and paypal are
having some success
let's go i mean two-thirds of squares
revenue is bitcoin
like so you could make the the argument
who's created the most value
well coinbase has got a 50 60 billion
dollar market cap but square's got 125
billion dollar market cap
or is it paypal that's sitting on a 330
billion dollar market cap up a hundred
billion dollars you know and
somewhat
materially fueled by bitcoin exposure
and crypto exposure
so i think i think those are interesting
places to watch
but i i would say anybody that's going
to be a crypto investor probably ought
to parse every single word
coming out of
congress the senate and the regulators
there's changes coming they matter and i
don't think they mattered as much for
the last four years i think the market
was dominated from 2016 to 2020
by the offshore leveraged exchanges and
and it was the wild west
and i think that 2020 to 2024
this is the
institutionalization
that there is the good news is
there is broad consensus that this is
technology that's critical to the future
of the economy
and you have a lot of senators senator
toomey senator lumis
a lot of politicians a congressional
caucus
and you even have a lot of regulators
including genzer himself saying look
satoshi's innovation is real he said it
on the record
right the the subtext of everything by
the way raoul is that uh
is
the regulators are not questioning
whether bitcoin is commodity
that's the story right if there's one
story
so there is a lot of broad-based support
for digital
property and for decentralized property
and it's clear it's here to stay at
least in the western world
the chinese aren't quite so clear on it
and places where people don't like
property rights like cuba or north korea
who knows what they'll they'll do
but in the western world where property
rights are respected this is just
digital property and the consensus is if
you disclose it
if you if you if you let us know if you
pay your taxes on the capital gains when
you get capital gains and if you
if you abide by aml kyc uh procedures
then it's good property and it's an
alternative to real property or any or
security or anything else
so that
that's the good news
but the
the real uncertainty
is how is every regulatory jurisdiction
going to normalize this and then how
they're going to treat all the other
tokens
and
nobody knows
but
everybody's talking about it
yeah it's going to be very interesting
in the eu as well i mean there's a whole
lot of stuff so as you say regulation is
a feat is going to be a feature of our
lives
you know i know that the space
originally thought that it was could get
around regulation but it's not going to
it can't do well let me come back to one
last point which is everybody's caught
up in the sound and fury in this
you know the sound and the fury and the
and the noise and they're sifting
through 6 000 alt coins and trying to
figure out the future this and that and
the other
and then the the one big trade is right
in front of your face which is
bitcoins going up 130 percent a year
every year for a decade bitcoin is up
much more than that this year the cost
of capital if you pay if you're issuing
expensive junk debt is six and an eight
percent interest
the cost of capital for coinbase is
three point three seven five percent
interest
the average person's cost to capital on
a mortgage against their house is two
and a half percent interest
there's tons of money
you can borrow money at five percent you
can loan it out at a hundred percent
right if you're if if the only trade you
do is
you buy a
billion dollars of bitcoin with debt or
equity or whatever and sit there and
wait it's a pretty good trade and it's
and it's you don't need to
you don't need to take all these other
risks
it's like people ask me
are you lending out your bitcoin
are you trying to get yield i'm like
well
we're getting 130 yield on average for a
decade but we got 250 or whatever why
would i risk losing it all for five
percent more i mean i'm i'm the same i
don't do any of that because it's a risk
that i can't quantify and it's
unnecessary
buy a high quality property and wait and
and i would say take all that energy i
all these companies jumping through
hoops juggling razor blades to figure
out how to do something complicated
something simple is just take your
billion dollars of cash and credit
and convert it to bitcoin
all the balance sheets of the world all
the balance sheets of every company
they're sitting on cash and credit
that's crumbling
right it's not even debated everybody
knows
the debt
is is losing purchasing power everybody
knows the cash is losing purchasing
power and every one of these companies
has the ability to borrow money or raise
capital
you know at obscene rates right you're
you're raising capital at revenue
multiples that are obscene and you're
borrowing money at interest rates that
are lifetime low
so there's plenty of capital
there's one obvious trade
just convert crumbling cash and
crumbling credit
into digital energy into pure property
which is not
debasing or degrading
it's that simple it's a simple idea
people are it's almost too simple
so everybody has to look for the second
you know the second derivative the third
derivative some complicated idea
and i guess where i come back on is like
i'd rather spend a thousand hours
figuring out how to borrow the next
billion dollars
and buy bitcoin
then spend a thousand hours creating a
software company to do something
complicated with bitcoin or if or spend
a thousand hours studying looking for
the next bitcoin it's like
why don't you just borrow a billion
dollars at zero percent interest and buy
it and wait because
satoshi's innovation is real
it it's it's that simple
because people think the trade's gonna
run out well not till we get to like 200
trillion dollars it's not going to run
out i mean we're one trillion dollars
now at market cap
so you've got a 100x turn on that
yeah that's my point and 99
of the marketplace hasn't taken that
trade
yeah
and why is that it's like
there's no etf so i can't punch a button
it takes six months to figure out how to
buy the naked asset so make it easier
and the other reason they haven't taken
that trade is
is uh you know gap accounting optical
accounting optics
okay and and people say well are you
bothered by that and i think
actually i'm not bothered by that i mean
the truth of the matter is that
microstrategy the longer it is that uh
that people are afraid of the accounting
the longer we the longer we have as the
exclusive
you know
publicly traded buyer of bitcoin
if everybody else is afraid of
indefinite intangible accounting and i'm
not afraid of it then i just get to i
get exclusive on buying the stuff and i
guess
it's going up at 200 a year i don't
think i want it to go up any faster
if it went up a thousand percent i mean
didn't you lose the opportunity to buy
so
yeah
i'm not i'm not bothered by the fud
i describe it as like the shock wave
it's so disruptive that everyone's got
to have an opinion on it and so they're
forced to have an opinion without
spending a hundred hours or a thousand
hours to understand it so that's the
shock wave on one side
i'm not bothered by the accounting
because it's just optics
and uh and you know i making billions of
dollars while
while
you know you take a non-cash charge of
something which you can look through is
is actually kind of a differentiator for
a company if you're not afraid to go
through that then
then you've got a unique
value proposition to the marketplace
and uh you know the etf
it makes it it makes it hard for some
institutions but then that means maybe
they would rather buy stocks of
companies that are bitcoin friendly
right so
it's even the negatives are positives
and when the etfs come
well maybe my stocks not so unique but
on the other hand bitcoin will
appreciate by a factor of 10 because
there'll be a wall of money coming in
the space
you make it back that way all the ideas
tune out of all of the noise and just
look at the network adoption and then
that's it
and over time as you say the market cap
goes from a trillion to 100 trillion
and everything else is noise
how long it takes to get there kind of
irrelevant yeah i think so
michael brilliant as ever to spend time
with you picking your brains on this
stuff really fascinating
yeah thanks for your time ralph always
good
and i'll see you soon hey there
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