SaylorCorpus

Bitcoin is Forever Money with Michael Saylor

Peter McCormack · 2024-05-25 · 2h 30m · View on YouTube →

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happy Thursday uh thank you for a lovely

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pizza yesterday on Pizza day uh and

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having us here that was two pizzas two

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pizzas and a cheesecake I think that's

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the best cheese cheesecake and a steak

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and a steak a

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whole it was a I I don't think anyone

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finished it

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um but uh it's always good to see you I

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think when did we last sit down was it

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Miami last year who it's been while it's

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what happened yeah yeah the world has

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changed a couple of times yeah a couple

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of times

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um you kind of have this pre- Bitcoin

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life and post Bitcoin life where your

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world must have changed quite a bit yeah

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yeah definitely did um I would say uh

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you I started a company in 1989 I came

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public in

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1998 there there was the stage from 98

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to 2008

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and it was all um business

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intelligence and um then around 2008 I

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felt like I conquered the business

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intelligence World I'd been successful

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and i' proven everything I need to prove

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and so I wanted to go create value by

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inventing new stuff and so I launched a

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bunch of businesses I had you know I had

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alarm.com and angel.com and usher.com

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and wisdom and alert.com and I think

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probably 10 different things and you

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know I I'd hit like a single like a you

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know with alarm but I end up spinning it

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off it's a public company today but

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there's no way that micro strategy could

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commercialize that and then with Angel

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we sold it for a lot of money but we

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couldn't commercialize oursel that was

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like an early competitor to Sur and

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interactive voice response and then we

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had a bunch of whiffs where I'd launch a

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business it just didn't work and it

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crashed and burn and um and over time I

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think I just I came to realize that it's

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very hard to be to if you if you manage

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to do one thing in life and you're lucky

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enough to have one thing that's

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successful you know you should declare

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yourself fortunate and then when you

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start to do maybe you can do a second

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thing but the second thing is really

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hard and then when you start thinking

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you can do a third thing a fourth thing

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a fifth thing a sixth thing and you're

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like the portfolio Guru and you launch

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10 or 10 things at the same time you

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start dropping balls and so when I got

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to um I think sometime in the 2012 2014

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time frame I realized I was going to

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have to refocus you know and put the

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laser eyes back on and go back to just

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focusing on micro strategies business

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intelligence business and I focused on

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that from you know 2014 all the way to

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2020 and we tried everything we could to

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grow that business 20% a year you know

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everybody in a tech business you know

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the definition of success is are you

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growing 10 to 20% a year and if you are

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then you're good and if you're growing

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faster than 20% You're great and if

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you're growing 0% you're just deemed a

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failure you know which like if you grow

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your family 0% you're not a failure like

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I have three kids imagine if you had to

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go from three kids to six kids to 12

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kids to 24 kids to 48 kids to 96 kids to

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192 kids so you know like every mother

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would fail but but in fact in business

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the expectation is you have to double

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double double double double failing so I

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found it very frustrating you know I

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tried spending massive amounts of money

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on marketing massive amounts of money

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buying the stock back masses amounts of

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effort doing other things and by 2020 I

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think we realized that we we weren't you

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know success was continuing to generate

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cash be profitable but we weren't going

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to double double double double double

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and um and then Along Came the pandemic

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the lockdowns covid zero interest rates

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and uh the world turned upside down for

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a lot of people and and I would say the

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next phase of my life started somewhere

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in the March 2020 time frame and uh and

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it forced me to rethink a lot of my

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ideas I I was avidly against remote work

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I would have fired you if you wanted to

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work remotely in February 2020 and in

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March of 2020 I was dragged Kicking and

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Screaming into remote world work and all

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of a sudden I I discover zoom and then I

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discover I discover YouTube and I

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discover you know all sorts of ideas for

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doing business remotely that I would

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have rejected

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reflexively just because I didn't you

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know it's like I was set in a certain

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way I was going to do everything a

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certain way and something snapped me out

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of that and um and in the world of

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Finance uh when uh the markets crashed

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and they rebounded and you know I saw

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this delamination of Main Street from

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Wall Street every Main Street company

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suffered struggled you know was

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discriminated against was shut down

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failed you know almost like a death

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sentence for yoga studio or gyms and not

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only were they were they harassed shut

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down but people were like sent to jail

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because they wanted to show up to the

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office right and then all the Wall

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Street businesses they all doubled in

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value in 12 weeks while the world was

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shut down and everybody on the Wall

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Street side of the equasion had the best

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year of their life in 2020 and it kind

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of yeah it kind of really shocked me

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broke my mind I'm like how is it

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possible that this part of the society

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is is having the worst year of their

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life and this set of of societies having

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the best year of their life and then you

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have the Schism where one group of

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people people are getting rich and not

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working hard and they don't see what the

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problem is and another group of people

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are being decimated you know destroyed

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physically mentally emotionally

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economically and there seems to be a

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disconnect and uh it was in that

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environment that I just realized that

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there was a part of my business which

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was Main Street the $500 million

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software company and working very hard

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and as part of my business which was

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Wall Street being a publicly traded

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company with 5600 million of cash that

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earned 0% interest and I thought well if

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we're going to be successful going

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forward I'm going to have to embrace the

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Wall Street side of the business and

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rethink that it's obvious that if you're

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in if you're T bills are generating 0%

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interest then you're not going to double

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your money invested in t- bills so we

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went on the search to find something to

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invest in and that search brought us to

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bitcoin and uh and then Bitcoin force

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made a think you know at first it made

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me rethink treasury strategy the

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convention of there must be 43,000

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publicly traded companies the

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conventional Finance view is your

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treasury should be invested in t- bills

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sovereign debt cash or credit C and and

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that and that leads to the conventional

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view you should uh isue any investment

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that creates volatility never invest in

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anything that might go down right you

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want to you want to have that money for

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a rainy day and you should probably run

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your your p&l so you asso volatility

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volatility is a dirty word so what's the

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perfect example like Microsoft sells

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three-year contract so three years in

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advance they know exactly what the price

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is going to be for their customers and

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if you ask the CFO how much revenue will

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you generate in the fourth quarter of

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next year they know plus or minus 1% so

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all they got to do is just tweak the

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cost and they will hit their numbers

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every quarter because the p&l isn't

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volatile it's very transparent very

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predictable and so on the balance sheet

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I give you a100 billion doll what do you

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do with it well you don't go and and buy

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Nvidia stock you don't buy Tesla stock

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you don't bet it on anything you you buy

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you know short you don't even buy

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long-term treasury bills you wouldn't

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buy 30 year bonds you would buy put it

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in the money market generating whatever

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if you're lucky at that point it was 3%

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but today it's 5 a half% and you take no

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interest rate risk and you take no

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Market risk so now what if you construct

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you've constructed like the ultimate

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predictable company with no

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uncertainty so if you're an investor you

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know you make one decision a year do I

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invest or not and then you you know you

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might do a quick check quarterly but any

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volatility is probably negative it's

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either oh they outperformed that you

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know that doesn't happen that often or

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they screwed something up well that was

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conventional wisdom 43,000 companies did

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it and everybody with cash would

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basically Buy t- bills shortterm and

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since t- bills shortterm yield 3% after

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tax and the cost of capital is

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12% then that means you're losing 9% or

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10% of shareholder value every year that

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you hold t- bills and since people get

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that the conventional view is buy your

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stock back the the cost of capital so

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people

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understand yeah is that that's is that

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the the gap between inflation and really

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if you could get to it a number of ways

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one way to get to it is actually look at

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the expansion of the money supply you

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know and if and and the money supply

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expanded maybe s or 8% over 100

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years and you could look at that and

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then you could tack on a risk premium I

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need to get that plus a risk premium the

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money suppli has been if that was the

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case the risk premium is normally four

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5% so you go 7% plus 5% gets you to 12%

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cost of capital but the cost of capital

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is the cost of holding that capital and

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doing nothing with it yeah another way

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to look at it is the S&P index might

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generate a 10 to 12% return and so if I

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have a billion dollars my option as an

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investor is just put it in the S&P index

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and get the 12% Diversified kind of

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quote unquote risk-free Equity return so

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if the company is going to keep the

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money and they're going to invest it in

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a t- bill that generates 3% after tax

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they should just give it to me and even

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if I'm brainless I just put it in the

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S&P index and generate 12% % tax

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deferred so that that's the disconnect

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right you're destroying shareholder

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wealth if you're generating a a tax

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deferred yield of less than 12% but this

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that guaranteed almost guaranteed 12% on

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the S&P feels a little bit scammy

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itself um how how can you guarantee that

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like the 3% is guaranteed yeah the three

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well the 3% is guaranteed that is true

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but over a hundred years the S&P has

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yielded

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78 9% on average but but you would have

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down years right true or do you not have

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down years but the decision or the

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opinion is in the eye of the beholder or

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the truth is in the eye of the beholder

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and the beholder is the investor yeah so

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the outside public if if you go and you

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survey a hundred institutional investors

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that invest in equity and you ask them

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what is their Benchmark The Benchmark is

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the S&P Index right like if the investor

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is returning less than the S&P index all

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their Capital would be called away from

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them when you when uh an Institutional

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Investor goes to the Yale pension fund

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or the Harvard endowment and they say

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hey I got 3% guaranteed in my T bills

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Yale and Harvard would say you're an

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idiot we could get 3% in t- bills we pay

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you to pick companies that can

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outperform the t- bill return and so if

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the in if a hedge fund manager or an

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investor goes to his limited partners

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and says we're generating the S&P

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return then the limited partner would

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would say well that's interesting but

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you're charging me 2% management fee and

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20% participation fee and all you did

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was the S&P index I can do that myself

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there you go so at the end of the day I

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have a billion dollars I can either put

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it in the S&P index and get that and pay

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a fee of nine BAS points to State Street

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or I can put it into the T Bill take

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zero risk get 3% after tax and pay no

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fee or I can give it to you Mr you know

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professional investor so the

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professional investor says I'm going to

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do better I'm gonna I'm going to pick

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the 10 winners and my proof is I got 18%

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return the S&P got 12% return but I kept

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2% management fee so that's said I 18 is

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16 and then I kept 20% of my return you

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know and by the way some of them don't

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do that some of them are just mutual

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funds and they just take a 1% fee but at

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the end of the day the the investor or

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The Limited partner investor you know

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the big boss at the at the back of the

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line says what's my effective return

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versus the S&P index and if you can do

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better than that I'm going to give you

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as much Capital as you want and if you

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underperform that I'm going to take away

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Capital so The Benchmark in the in the

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modern era since you know 1993 was spy

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was launched so Benchmark in the last 30

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years is probably the S&P index that is

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the effective cost of capital right The

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Limited partner puts that burden on the

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general partner running the investment

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fund the general partner puts that

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burden on the CEO and the CFO the

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management team that run apple and Tesla

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and Microsoft if you can't generate that

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return or better for me my view is give

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me the capital back so that means The

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Limited partner takes the money away

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from the Bridgewaters or the hedge funds

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of the world and then the general

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partner takes the money away from the

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corporations and that just kind of

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ripples down but if there's increasing

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profits increasing companies putting

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their money into the S&P as a as a way

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to almost guarantee their

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returns are those investments in those

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companies uh reflective of their

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performance or or they reflective of a

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safe haven and a because it's almost

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like a guaranteed it's like a

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self-fulfilling prophecy yeah now now

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you're getting to like rational Market

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Theory it's um if you have active

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investors they pick the winners and out

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of them S&P 500 there's like seven

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winners The Magnificent Seven and

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there's 493 losers or or Treading Water

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right so if the active investors pick

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the winners they overinvestment

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than the losers if everybody just uh

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invested in the index there would be no

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picking of winners or losers that's

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almost just like a Socialist Communist

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idea and that would be an example of the

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investment Community stopping to stop

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thinking right index investors they

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don't think they just buy you know x% of

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500 companies and so the truth is the

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index strategy only works if you have

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actor actors who are activists in the

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market that don't index but does the

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index itself naturally lead to companies

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being

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overvalued some yeah some companies will

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be overvalued some companies may be

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undervalued right so so it is it's uh an

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example of an imperfection in the

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marketplace that creates opportunity if

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if everybody else chooses to index and

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you're the one person that that doesn't

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then it's like you're saying the emperor

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has no coach you guys are all invested

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in Kodak and Xerox and you're not

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invested in Amazon and apple that's how

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the big Tech investors could outperform

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the overall market and again if I step

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back and I'm I'm looking at you as the

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activist investor the way that I know

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you're thinking properly is you're

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outperforming the index if you're

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underperforming the index you're

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thinking

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poorly and if you're outperforming index

0:16:27

you're thinking properly but let's come

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back to 2020 you came back to bitcoin

0:16:31

anyway um so in 2020 uh we had uh half

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of our Enterprise was in cash and it was

0:16:38

generating 0% yield and it was very

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clear that if if we wanted to actually

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um have the uh the success of Wall

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Street firms we needed to have an asset

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and the asset needed to generate more

0:16:52

than the cost of capital so the search

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is to and the cost of capital jumped

0:16:58

because of an Environ

0:16:59

where you print 40% more money all of

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your assets have to go up and price 40%

0:17:05

for you to keep parity right and so what

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did well big Tech stock surged uh real

0:17:11

estate surged um you know so so those

0:17:16

things do surge cash doesn't surge

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owning a bunch of dollars dollars

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weren't worth 40% more three years later

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than they were in 2020 so we went on

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this search and we and you know

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considered art and real estate and

0:17:31

buying the index and buying big tech

0:17:34

companies and there are regulatory uh

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considerations that keep you from just

0:17:38

buying Securities you can't have more

0:17:41

than 40% of your liquid uh Assets in

0:17:45

Securities if you're a publicly traded

0:17:47

company generally and so you can't just

0:17:50

buy $500 million of spy but and even if

0:17:54

you did There's then practical

0:17:56

consideration which is if you told all

0:17:58

your investors we just took all this

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money and invested in the Spy their

0:18:02

response would be well there's nothing

0:18:05

special about that that's the most

0:18:06

conventional strategy you could pursue a

0:18:09

12-year-old could do the same give us

0:18:11

the capital back so we discovered uh the

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idea of gold and then we thought about

0:18:18

it we decided the digital gold would be

0:18:20

better than gold if we could get all the

0:18:22

benefits of a non-sovereign store of

0:18:24

value Bearer instrument that's a hard

0:18:28

money and if we could combine it with

0:18:30

all the benefits of Apple Google

0:18:32

Facebook Amazon a big Tech Global

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dominant Network putting the idea of

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Technology investing with the idea of of

0:18:41

hard money investing together in the

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year 2024 it struck us as being a

0:18:47

reasonable strategy and at the time it

0:18:50

was really the only reasonable strategy

0:18:52

we we either going to give the money

0:18:53

back to the shareholders and that's a

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death give the money back decapit lies

0:18:59

have no assets right once you lose your

0:19:02

financial Capital you're going to lose

0:19:03

your human capital because if you have

0:19:05

no money on the balance sheet and if

0:19:07

your business has no volatility the

0:19:09

options have no value stock options have

0:19:12

no value you can't afford you can't

0:19:15

overpay the employees you don't have the

0:19:18

cash and so you're probably going to

0:19:20

lose the employees and then three to six

0:19:22

years later the product's not going to

0:19:24

be competitive so the fast death wasn't

0:19:26

all that appealing if you're going to do

0:19:28

that you might as well would just sell

0:19:29

the company the slow death is sit on 600

0:19:32

million in cash which you know we could

0:19:35

we could run at an operating loss for 20

0:19:37

years with that much cash but you're

0:19:39

just waiting to die right it's like

0:19:42

you're not going to beat Microsoft and

0:19:43

Amazon and Facebook and Google that's

0:19:46

like H holding up in your Citadel while

0:19:49

the Army's outside they're just going to

0:19:50

starve you to death and okay I've got

0:19:52

7even years of food in my Citadel but

0:19:55

while I'm sitting here and for seven

0:19:57

years they're going to burn all my field

0:19:59

you know Dam my water supply and take

0:20:02

over the rest of the world and when I

0:20:04

come out in seven years people have

0:20:05

forgotten me so that's no good so the

0:20:08

last thing is you go you ride out of the

0:20:10

Citadel you take a risk you know pick

0:20:13

sides join the

0:20:15

fry uh you know take a decision and at

0:20:19

the time you know the the obvious uh

0:20:23

Team to join was team Bitcoin the

0:20:26

obvious movement was the crypto movement

0:20:28

and and there was a lot of risk but but

0:20:32

the alternative was just either a slow

0:20:34

or fast death you keep saying we but it

0:20:37

was really you and you brought it to

0:20:39

your team right um well I I'm the

0:20:42

Catalyst but the difference between uh

0:20:45

an individual investor and a public

0:20:48

company is an individual investor can

0:20:51

can think about it maybe discuss it with

0:20:53

a family member two and make the

0:20:55

decision a private company thinks about

0:20:58

it talks to one major investor three

0:21:00

people in the private company and makes

0:21:02

a decision and tells nobody a public

0:21:05

company you would have to you would have

0:21:07

to persuade your entire uh management

0:21:11

team the CFO The General Counsel the CEO

0:21:14

the head of Technology maybe then you

0:21:16

have to get the consensus of the

0:21:19

directors so the management the the the

0:21:21

directors and the officers have to come

0:21:23

aligned then you have to get consensus

0:21:26

from the outside auditor from the

0:21:29

outside Council and after you consider

0:21:31

those two you have to get consensus of

0:21:34

the outside public company investors and

0:21:36

the problem with the investors is at

0:21:38

9:30 in the morning the investor base

0:21:40

turns over it changes and by 400 p.m. in

0:21:42

the afternoon you have different

0:21:43

investors so you have to think really

0:21:45

hard about how you communicate Telegraph

0:21:49

and build consensus with the

0:21:51

investors and so so public companies are

0:21:54

interesting creatures because on one

0:21:56

hand it's like a 19 legged race you know

0:22:01

fought you know or something it's it's a

0:22:03

very intricate uh dance to build Harmony

0:22:06

across many constituencies that have

0:22:08

asymmetric information and they also

0:22:11

have asymmetric priorities right the

0:22:14

general Council doesn't want you to get

0:22:15

sued right the directors of a fiduciary

0:22:18

obligation the out you know there's a

0:22:21

set of investors that think one thing

0:22:23

another set of investors that think of

0:22:24

different things so you've got to

0:22:26

balance all those constituencies and

0:22:28

that's the negative or the challenge but

0:22:31

the positive is when a public company

0:22:33

does something it does it big right in

0:22:37

size so when we finally did something it

0:22:39

was a $250 million acquisition of

0:22:43

Bitcoin and and for me I was like I

0:22:45

wanted to do 500 million but 250 million

0:22:48

was the compromise and we agreed to buy

0:22:50

back 250 million of our stock at the

0:22:52

same time kind of as insurance to to to

0:22:55

give all of the the the the um

0:22:58

shareholders that were concerned about

0:23:00

the strategy give them an exit at a

0:23:02

profit so that was our move but in

0:23:05

retrospect of course 250 million was

0:23:07

like the largest public purchase of

0:23:10

Bitcoin that anybody in the world had

0:23:12

ever admitted to or the world had ever

0:23:14

seen I don't there there may have been

0:23:17

larger uh public Investments or larger

0:23:20

Investments but we don't know about them

0:23:22

and they're not credible about 12 of

0:23:24

them from

0:23:25

you yeah and then once we did that then

0:23:29

we then we were able to do the next one

0:23:31

the next one the next one so public

0:23:33

companies are very powerful Vehicles if

0:23:36

you can align all of your interest you

0:23:39

know just like countries are powerful

0:23:41

you know getting a country to get behind

0:23:43

Bitcoin would would be a very powerful

0:23:46

idea it's just you have a lot of

0:23:48

constituencies and so the exercise

0:23:50

becomes one in in uh

0:23:53

diplomacy politics and consideration are

0:23:57

you surprise more companies haven't done

0:23:59

it or done it to the scale you have

0:24:01

because you you've put the playbook out

0:24:02

there you've told everyone you run your

0:24:04

conference I don't on a very small scale

0:24:06

of my little businesses but and and it's

0:24:08

worked amazingly for every single

0:24:09

business I've had I've done my small

0:24:12

version of what micro strategy does

0:24:13

which is buy as much Bitcoin as I can

0:24:16

and it def it's protected and grow each

0:24:18

business but are you surprised that are

0:24:20

more large public companies have gone

0:24:22

wow we should have done that we should

0:24:23

be doing that um I'm not surprised and

0:24:27

I'm not disappointed with what we've

0:24:28

achieved in four years I mean we did I I

0:24:32

think there has been a sentiment shift

0:24:33

throughout the Bitcoin Community to to

0:24:36

look uh further in the future you know I

0:24:39

think there has been a positive

0:24:41

sentiment shift in media you know on on

0:24:45

in the financial you know television

0:24:47

networks it used to be people lamented

0:24:49

nobody talked about Bitcoin or they

0:24:50

talked it to scam me and I think I think

0:24:52

we legitimized Bitcoin as an asset class

0:24:55

with CNBC and Bloomberg and fox

0:24:59

I think um I think a lot of private

0:25:02

companies you know uh got very heavily

0:25:05

involved I get I get letters from from

0:25:07

people that are private investors and

0:25:09

also everywhere I go I meet somebody

0:25:11

that says oh I watch one of your videos

0:25:13

and I you know I finally got Bitcoin I

0:25:16

started buying heavily so a lot of

0:25:18

private investors a lot of families a

0:25:20

lot of private

0:25:22

companies and you know like my first

0:25:25

podcast with pum you know he always said

0:25:28

this question at the end of the day he'd

0:25:29

ask a question goes do and I watched his

0:25:32

previous podcast and I noticed he always

0:25:34

says so do you have a question for me

0:25:36

and I looked at that and I thought yeah

0:25:37

I'm gonna have a question for him so in

0:25:39

my first podcast with pump you know what

0:25:42

my first question was like my first

0:25:44

podcast my first question and pomp was

0:25:46

the most influential podcaster in the

0:25:48

Bitcoin space I said but that is

0:25:50

debatable at the time still debatable

0:25:53

okay I

0:25:54

thought no you m you me you messaged me

0:25:57

and I was like was this guy and I

0:25:58

ignored it and then you went on pumps I

0:26:00

was like

0:26:01

[ __ ] yeah I mean I messaged a lot of

0:26:03

people the day we bought $250 million of

0:26:05

Bitcoin and like half of the ogs ignored

0:26:08

me yeah but um I'm on Pal's podcast he

0:26:11

says you have a question for me and I

0:26:13

said yeah yeah I noticed Jack dorsy

0:26:17

likes Bitcoin he he tweets about it he

0:26:20

seems to really appreciate the value of

0:26:22

it he runs a publicly traded company

0:26:25

Square do you want to join force with me

0:26:27

and let's go ask Jack if he'll buy some

0:26:29

Bitcoin and p goes that's that's kind of

0:26:32

interesting and then a few weeks go by

0:26:36

maybe a month go by and square announced

0:26:38

that they bought Bitcoin yep I remember

0:26:41

and and that was a game Cher you know I

0:26:43

thought you know at the point they did

0:26:45

that you know I I

0:26:47

thought we're good now we're gonna win

0:26:50

like that was the that was the point at

0:26:51

which I thought we're going to win two

0:26:53

public companies took a position you

0:26:56

know and then when Elon came along long

0:26:58

and Tesla bought Bitcoin that was three

0:27:00

public companies and perception of

0:27:02

Bitcoin and mainstream media I mean it

0:27:05

it it's cross the front page of Wall

0:27:08

Street Journal New York Times Etc so I

0:27:11

think we accomplished a lot in those

0:27:12

four years but it doesn't surprise me

0:27:16

that you don't see a hundred or a

0:27:17

thousand publicly traded companies

0:27:19

adopting Bitcoin as a primary treasury

0:27:22

Reserve asset in those four years

0:27:24

because I think the modern era the

0:27:27

institutional era Bitcoin adoption

0:27:29

starts January

0:27:31

2024 right and and I think uh what

0:27:33

changed in January 2024 was the SEC

0:27:39

approved 11 10 to 11 spot Bitcoin ETFs

0:27:43

and that started an avalanche and I

0:27:46

think today there's like 24 there's 22

0:27:48

last week and there were two added in

0:27:50

London or getting added so we went from

0:27:53

a perception that this was not an

0:27:55

endorsed or legitimate asset class at

0:27:58

the at the regulatory level and someone

0:28:01

could have said I think the SEC is going

0:28:03

to ban it or they're going to deem it a

0:28:05

security or something and and the world

0:28:08

Changed by the middle of January and now

0:28:11

it was clear that it wasn't going to be

0:28:12

banned and then at the same time in

0:28:15

January um the accounting uh the

0:28:19

accounting profession offered fair value

0:28:22

accounting they they changed the

0:28:23

accounting guidelines and they made it

0:28:26

optional starting in January and

0:28:28

mandatory next January so in a regime

0:28:32

where it is uncertain whether the

0:28:34

administration will deem Bitcoin a

0:28:37

commodity or security and they haven't

0:28:39

they haven't definitively spoken and in

0:28:42

a world where the accounting profession

0:28:44

requires that you adopt indefinite and

0:28:47

tangible accounting indefinite and

0:28:49

tangible accounting is the most uh toxic

0:28:53

prejudicial discriminatory accounting

0:28:55

treatment you can have if I didn't want

0:28:57

you to buy something or invest in

0:29:00

something I would give it indefinite and

0:29:02

tangible accounting because that means

0:29:04

you can only write it down you can never

0:29:07

write it up and so you could have $15

0:29:10

billion doar or $150 billion do of

0:29:13

something and it could be held on your

0:29:15

balance sheet at 100 bucks and and not

0:29:19

only can you not ever acknowledge it uh

0:29:22

all of your losses under indefinite and

0:29:25

tangible they actually uh infect the p&l

0:29:30

so if if a if a normal company bought a

0:29:32

billion dollars of Bitcoin and it traded

0:29:34

down 30% and then traded up

0:29:37

150% they would be showing a $300

0:29:40

million operating

0:29:42

loss even though you know well the same

0:29:44

the same happen with my business I did

0:29:46

one advertising deal it was all paid in

0:29:49

Bitcoin uh it was a multi-year deal uh

0:29:52

seven figures and I took the deal

0:29:54

because it was paid in Bitcoin it was

0:29:56

under the value I normally do uh un

0:29:58

normally accept uh the price and the

0:30:01

price of Bitcoin was 42,000 at the time

0:30:04

um by the time we uh my year end Bitcoin

0:30:07

had dropped to below

0:30:09

20,000 and uh I had to pay taxation

0:30:13

based on the value of the Bitcoin at the

0:30:16

time I received it and it was a big hit

0:30:19

I managed to survive it but I nearly had

0:30:20

to you there was a Potential Threat of

0:30:23

selling some Bitcoin to pay the taxes at

0:30:26

that time it was a real threat to the

0:30:27

business we survived it and now we've

0:30:29

not sold any of that Bitcoin but it was

0:30:32

concerning if you look at the 42,000

0:30:34

publicly traded

0:30:36

companies and you went to a CFO in 2023

0:30:40

or 2022 and you said I think I want to

0:30:42

buy Bitcoin they would have said well

0:30:44

the accounting is a real problem the

0:30:46

accounting is going to let me tell you

0:30:48

how much of a problem it is it's going

0:30:50

to obscure all of your p&l and all of

0:30:53

your balance sheet such that your EPS

0:30:56

doesn't it doesn't uh have any useful

0:31:00

information anymore and it means that

0:31:03

any investor is going to have to

0:31:06

reconstruct their own view of your

0:31:08

business so it it takes uh it takes

0:31:11

financial reporting from something where

0:31:13

I can look at a glance and 30 seconds

0:31:15

and figure out whether you had a good

0:31:16

quarter to I have to spend three hours

0:31:21

thinking about it and and so that's kind

0:31:23

of a nonstarter so um I I think that

0:31:27

we're all only like we're May late May

0:31:32

and the era of institutional adoption

0:31:34

for Bitcoin started in January and and

0:31:38

it's and it's like uh if you go went

0:31:40

back to

0:31:41

1994 and we said well the first

0:31:43

companies in the world rolled out their

0:31:45

website in January of 1994 and now it's

0:31:48

May of

0:31:49

1994 and we're sitting in a podcast

0:31:52

you're saying well Michael are you

0:31:52

surprised that more companies aren't you

0:31:54

know rolling out websites or don't

0:31:56

appreciate the web and I'm like

0:31:58

well it's really year one and and and

0:32:01

give it four more years right give it 10

0:32:04

more years and you'll see that the

0:32:06

consensus will be of course you need a

0:32:08

website just like of course you need

0:32:10

Bitcoin and and with Bitcoin you you

0:32:12

found a place to park your Capital you

0:32:15

found a place to deliver a better return

0:32:18

but but you do also

0:32:20

mention you mentioned earlier during

0:32:22

covid there was an inequity during the

0:32:25

lockdowns where small yoga businesses CL

0:32:28

down and and whilst you're obviously a

0:32:30

very successful investor uh I have also

0:32:34

noticed you do have a lot of empathy you

0:32:36

do have uh you have an eye on the

0:32:38

inequities of the world whether it's

0:32:40

caused by the system or bureaucracy and

0:32:44

so how do you how do you manage those

0:32:47

two different parts of Bitcoin because

0:32:49

Bitcoin is a great investment tool but

0:32:51

it also is something that brings a lot

0:32:53

of equity with it you know a lot of

0:32:55

fairness is that just like a beautiful

0:32:57

marriage

0:33:03

yeah I think that uh that Bitcoin is

0:33:03

it's an

0:33:04

asset and that makes it the ideal

0:33:07

treasury asset that makes it a solution

0:33:09

for every corporation in the world and

0:33:11

every investor and every family every

0:33:13

individual it's uh it's also a

0:33:16

technology but it's a technology for uh

0:33:20

for human

0:33:22

empowerment right and you know I think

0:33:25

Peter teal pointed out that that

0:33:27

cryptography Y and and and giving strong

0:33:29

encryption to the individual it shifts

0:33:32

the balance of power away from the

0:33:34

corporation and away from the central

0:33:35

entity whether it's a government or a

0:33:37

big corpor and it shifts it back to the

0:33:40

individual you know and and that

0:33:42

movement started with pgp you know and

0:33:45

pretty good privacy and and uh it was

0:33:48

simmering it just and I knew it went on

0:33:51

because a lot of people at MIT were very

0:33:53

much into it and one of my MIT friends

0:33:56

Simpson garfinkle wrote a book on pretty

0:33:58

good privacy and so and I I follow a

0:34:01

little bit but it was never uh an

0:34:04

existential it was never I never had an

0:34:06

existential threat and I never had a

0:34:08

mortality experience or near-death

0:34:10

experience where I needed it to survive

0:34:12

right so so I started appreciating

0:34:16

Bitcoin not just as an asset but as a

0:34:18

technology and then and then once you

0:34:20

understand the technology you know how

0:34:23

do you Empower someone with whatever all

0:34:26

their money in their head or in their

0:34:28

hands and how do you Empower someone to

0:34:31

move all their assets from here to to

0:34:34

there without asking permission that

0:34:37

leads you to the

0:34:39

ideology right and and the and the

0:34:44

ideology is based upon you know a

0:34:48

protocol that empowers technology that

0:34:52

creates an asset But ultimately the

0:34:54

ideology is you know self- sovereignty

0:34:59

privacy individual rights and you know

0:35:02

the the sovereignty of the individual

0:35:05

and and also property rights and

0:35:08

freedom and um and I think that once I

0:35:12

got involved I you know I started

0:35:14

looking for a solution to a treasury

0:35:16

problem so I kind of got involved

0:35:19

because I had an economic problem and

0:35:22

then in the research it leads you to

0:35:25

understand the technology and and

0:35:26

appreciate the combination of

0:35:28

cryptography and proof of work and and

0:35:31

and and uh energy and then once you

0:35:35

start following all the bitcoiners you

0:35:37

get drawn into the ideology and then in

0:35:40

the ideology people start to start to

0:35:42

cause you to question basics for example

0:35:46

what is inflation I I would have I would

0:35:49

have accepted the party line inflation

0:35:51

is CPI and then as soon as you realize

0:35:54

inflation is not CPI or inflation and

0:35:57

you can generate as many inflation

0:35:59

metrics as you as you wish to generate

0:36:02

then you realize well I can just

0:36:04

cherry-pick any inflation and so the the

0:36:06

best possible situation is to run an

0:36:08

economy with 12% inflation while I

0:36:11

convince the people that it's 2%

0:36:13

inflation because the cost of capital

0:36:15

really is 12% but they think it's 2% and

0:36:19

the difference of the 10% I get to give

0:36:21

to anybody else I want right so like

0:36:25

every every pension is indexed at CP Pi

0:36:28

you know so I'm I'm raising your

0:36:30

pensions at 2% I'm inflating the money

0:36:33

supply at 10 or

0:36:35

12% right and and um that leads you to

0:36:39

question a lot of things well if the

0:36:41

inflation rate isn't cor correct then

0:36:42

maybe GDP isn't correct how do you

0:36:45

actually measure gross domestic product

0:36:47

you know if it's not inflation

0:36:49

adjusted you know and I think uh I think

0:36:52

the CEO of Microsoft you know made a

0:36:55

point a very quiet point no one noticed

0:36:57

which is you the real e the economy is

0:37:00

shrinking it's not growing in nominal

0:37:02

terms people will perceive the economy

0:37:05

to be growing but once you put in place

0:37:07

the right inflation rate the economy is

0:37:10

shrinking nobody in the modern era wants

0:37:12

to admit that they that their National

0:37:14

economy is shrinking due to political

0:37:16

policy well that leads you to start

0:37:19

looking at all these other things like

0:37:20

uh PPI indexes what does that really

0:37:23

mean and then what about unemployment

0:37:26

how can you have unemployment of an

0:37:28

unemployment rate of 2 or 3% when 45% of

0:37:30

the people don't have a job like what

0:37:33

what's the definition of unemployment

0:37:34

well we we only count people as

0:37:37

unemployed if they wish they

0:37:40

weren't huh huh like uh so so all of

0:37:46

these metrics that that Talking Heads on

0:37:49

TV they they argue about they're all

0:37:52

synthetic flow metrics and and you know

0:37:55

you can build an entire world in a trade

0:37:57

strategy and an ideology around

0:38:00

synthetic

0:38:01

cherry-picked false metrics or once you

0:38:06

discover Bitcoin you start thinking well

0:38:09

if the GDP is not right and the

0:38:10

unemployment's not right and the

0:38:12

inflation's not right then what you know

0:38:15

then what is right and so I think that

0:38:19

uh the Bitcoin opened that door for me

0:38:21

and it cause me to question a bunch of

0:38:23

other things I taken for granted and

0:38:26

that leads you to you know it leads you

0:38:28

to read you know the creature from

0:38:29

Jackal Island and then it leads you to

0:38:33

read everything by Murray rothbart you

0:38:35

know a history of economic thought and

0:38:37

you discover Austrian

0:38:39

economics and then it causes you to go

0:38:42

back and and you rethink all of history

0:38:44

like I you know I go back and I reread

0:38:46

the history of the world if you read

0:38:48

Durant's story of civilization he wrote

0:38:50

15,000 pages on the world if you most

0:38:54

people didn't read 15,000 pages of world

0:38:56

history when they were 18 years old old

0:38:58

but if you did you didn't understand

0:39:01

inflation and you didn't understand

0:39:03

money and you didn't understand politics

0:39:06

and you and you hadn't lived through a

0:39:07

war and so you misinterpret or you or

0:39:10

you you know shallowly interpret what's

0:39:13

going on when you go back and you read

0:39:15

history again after you've lived through

0:39:19

an actual war or currency meltdown or

0:39:23

you live in in in 2020 right you see one

0:39:26

part of the economy being destroyed and

0:39:28

another part of the economy being lifted

0:39:29

up by the political action of a few

0:39:31

people and then you watch the media and

0:39:34

you realize there's there's one set of

0:39:35

media that doesn't even recognize

0:39:37

there's a problem and there's another

0:39:39

set of media that uh that takes a a

0:39:42

totally different point of view and then

0:39:43

you realize that that news is just a

0:39:48

curated stream of opinions and if you

0:39:51

wanted one set of opinions you could

0:39:52

watch one set of channels if you want

0:39:54

another set of opinions you watch other

0:39:56

set of channels but what do you do with

0:39:58

this now you cuz you you you it's like

0:40:00

anyone you have your eyes opened you

0:40:02

question everything but for you what

0:40:04

does that mean what do you do with this

0:40:06

now once you

0:40:08

realize that so many things you took for

0:40:10

granted aren't necessarily so and it and

0:40:13

it and it cause you to open your eyes

0:40:15

toward a bunch of things in the world

0:40:18

well there's there's there's two

0:40:21

responses you could have one response is

0:40:23

to not there's a hundred things that are

0:40:25

wrong with the world and start to

0:40:26

complain about all 100 of

0:40:29

them and the other response is just to

0:40:32

pick one single thing that you can do

0:40:35

that might make a

0:40:36

difference and uh and I'm of the opinion

0:40:40

that uh I could complain about a hundred

0:40:43

things in the world that I disagree with

0:40:45

that I would talk about with you

0:40:47

privately but the world doesn't want my

0:40:49

opinion and it doesn't care and and uh

0:40:52

and those things aren't going to change

0:40:54

based upon me complaining about them I

0:40:56

don't have any real power

0:40:58

and I and I also think I remember the

0:41:01

words of of Hayak you know he says you

0:41:05

know you want to take money away from

0:41:07

the state you know you can't do it you

0:41:10

know in a frontal assault you have to do

0:41:13

it in a Sly roundabout way MH so my view

0:41:17

is how do you

0:41:19

fight you know something which is so

0:41:23

entrenched in the

0:41:24

civilization that the harder you push

0:41:26

the harder pushes back and the answer is

0:41:29

you have to in you have to introduce a

0:41:32

new idea that will go viral so for

0:41:40

example

0:41:40

Bitcoin you know is a new idea you could

0:41:43

view it as Freedom technology a freedom

0:41:46

virus and you can also view it as a

0:41:49

monetary virus to give sound money to

0:41:51

the world so if I want to give freedom

0:41:53

and sovereignty and dignity and

0:41:55

empowerment to eight billion people

0:41:58

I don't loudly scream that their

0:42:00

overlords ought to stop leaning on them

0:42:04

you know I I'm not going to topple every

0:42:07

government and every corporate over

0:42:08

Overlord and everything so what I do is

0:42:10

I introduce a new technology that

0:42:12

spreads virally and if I want to give

0:42:14

property rights to 8 billion people I

0:42:17

introduce a new technology and when you

0:42:20

introduce a new technology you there's a

0:42:23

right way to do and a wrong way to do it

0:42:25

I think when you say you're wrong you're

0:42:28

stupid I'm smart do it my way change

0:42:32

your way right the harder you the louder

0:42:35

you say that the harder someone pushes

0:42:37

back against you that's like parenting

0:42:39

you create inflammation yeah right and

0:42:42

and there are examples in our political

0:42:44

system where certain political parties

0:42:46

their position is the other party is

0:42:48

wrong we're right they're stupid we're

0:42:50

smart do it our way and give us credit

0:42:53

and blame them right and so that that's

0:42:55

an inflammatory approach I think that um

0:42:59

you could spend a hundred billion

0:43:01

dollars trying to to jam your idea on

0:43:04

someone that doesn't want it they will

0:43:06

just crowdsource a hundred billion

0:43:08

dollars of power to push back and that's

0:43:10

called fighting a war right you're just

0:43:12

going to war I think that the more

0:43:15

elegant way is to introduce a new idea

0:43:20

you know Bitcoin what is it good for oh

0:43:23

it'll it'll be good for your family what

0:43:26

else it'll be good for your company what

0:43:28

else oh it'll help your bank what else

0:43:30

it'll help your state what else it'll

0:43:32

help your city it'll help your country

0:43:34

what else oh you know you want to fight

0:43:36

a war it'll help you win the war you

0:43:38

know you disagree with X it'll help your

0:43:40

political party you want to win an

0:43:41

election it'll help you win right what

0:43:43

what is bitcoin Bitcoin is is good for

0:43:47

you right Bitcoin is empowerment

0:43:49

technology that will allow you to be the

0:43:52

best version of yourself who's losing

0:43:56

nobody's losing

0:43:57

who's wrong nobody's wrong just

0:44:00

everybody's just better with this is

0:44:02

Better Living Through technology and I

0:44:05

you know my Approach is I think about

0:44:08

the one thing that can make the world a

0:44:10

better place and I think about the one

0:44:12

thing I might accomplish like I I

0:44:14

literally I don't think like micro

0:44:16

strategy spent seven a half billion

0:44:18

dollars buying Bitcoin I don't think

0:44:21

that if we spent $7.5 billion dollar on

0:44:24

the next 100 things you think are wrong

0:44:26

with the world I don't think it' make a

0:44:29

difference I think that you would just

0:44:31

spend the money and the counter side the

0:44:34

other opposition would spend an

0:44:35

equivalent amount of money to negate the

0:44:37

amount of money you're spending so I

0:44:40

don't think you change the world through

0:44:41

full frontal attacks and I don't think

0:44:43

you change it through aggressive

0:44:46

confrontation I think you change it

0:44:48

through elegant diplomatic Innovation

0:44:53

and and uh that's that's my observation

0:44:56

if I look at at the history of the world

0:44:58

the people that made the world a better

0:45:00

place the people that introduce steel

0:45:03

electricity

0:45:05

antibiotics you know the small pox

0:45:08

vaccine airplanes steam engines internal

0:45:13

combustion engines Motors but starlink

0:45:17

these are all very elegant things and

0:45:19

they're non-controversial at the end of

0:45:20

the day maybe early on people are afraid

0:45:23

of new tech but if you look back and you

0:45:27

say well just give me an example of

0:45:29

someone that righteously opposed

0:45:31

electricity who history deems was on the

0:45:34

right side of that I think generally

0:45:37

history views you on the wrong side of

0:45:40

technical

0:45:41

Innovation and uh and so you'll win over

0:45:44

time if you want to change the world

0:45:46

with technology tech technology is

0:45:50

bipartisan if you want to change the

0:45:52

world with religion or you want to

0:45:54

change the world with ideology or

0:45:56

politics

0:45:57

or you want to change the world with

0:46:00

with critique you know or violence I

0:46:03

think the world has a way of pushing

0:46:05

back and and so I I guess I was just

0:46:08

practical and and uh in 2020 what

0:46:11

started as a how do I saved my own

0:46:14

company became uh oh how do I actually

0:46:18

do something good for my shareholders

0:46:21

right I started with a defensive

0:46:23

strategy almost out of desperation it's

0:46:25

either this or throwing the towel on out

0:46:27

of business and then it became oh

0:46:29

opportunity I actually can actually make

0:46:31

money for my shareholders we did it when

0:46:33

the stock was $120 a share and then when

0:46:36

the stock gets to three or $400 a share

0:46:38

we think well maybe we can keep doing

0:46:40

this and then it became a well you know

0:46:43

wait a minute there's a lot of other

0:46:45

people there's 400 million people in

0:46:47

this crypto community and they actually

0:46:49

like Bitcoin and there's hundreds of

0:46:51

millions of people that own some piece

0:46:53

of Bitcoin and they love it and then

0:46:55

there's the Bitcoin maximalist and they

0:46:57

think that's an instrument of economic

0:46:59

empowerment they think it's going to

0:47:00

change the world for the better and they

0:47:02

don't want to live in a world without

0:47:04

it why do they you know and and so

0:47:07

getting drawn into the spiritual side of

0:47:09

Bitcoin it came later right I mean I

0:47:12

realized there are a lot of people I

0:47:14

mean Jack dorsy maybe being the most

0:47:16

famous of these people that clearly they

0:47:19

were motivated by spiritual drivers and

0:47:22

spiritual motivations more so than by

0:47:25

monetary you know he didn't need to do

0:47:27

Bitcoin to save his company he was a big

0:47:29

Tech billionaire success I I did you

0:47:34

know and and on the other hand it's not

0:47:37

bad that uh that we both had different

0:47:40

motives because my motive was save a

0:47:44

zombie company guess what there's 30,000

0:47:47

other zombie companies and there's 300

0:47:50

million corporations in the world

0:47:52

they're all in the same boat with me

0:47:54

right so my motive was was Wonder

0:47:56

Direction his motive was a different

0:47:58

direction but I I eventually ended up

0:48:01

appreciating him and that spir that

0:48:04

spiritual element you know and

0:48:06

discovered the XS of the world you know

0:48:08

and and all of the Bitcoin Believers

0:48:11

through podcasts like yours and and the

0:48:13

like but I think he ended up

0:48:18

appreciating what we were doing too

0:48:21

right it's after micro strategy that

0:48:22

square buys Bitcoin and then it was just

0:48:24

a month ago that square oun that they

0:48:27

would start buying Bitcoin every

0:48:29

month right and and and there is a role

0:48:34

corporations you know in this as well so

0:48:37

I think that we're all evolving and uh

0:48:40

and my journey kind of went from from uh

0:48:44

one economically motivated uh to then

0:48:47

one uh spiritually motivated and then I

0:48:51

started to see the

0:48:53

ideology right and and if you want to

0:48:55

make if you want fix fix the there are

0:48:58

there are serious problems in the

0:49:00

political system of the US there's

0:49:02

dysfunction and there's serious

0:49:04

dysfunction in the EU and there's

0:49:06

serious dysfunction in China and there's

0:49:08

some serious dysfunction in South

0:49:10

America and probably you'll find some

0:49:12

serious dysfunction in Asia right and

0:49:15

and then we could tack on a little bit

0:49:16

of serious dysfunction in in asan and

0:49:20

and New Zealand and Australia and we're

0:49:22

not I'm not going to talk about it but I

0:49:24

think we all know that there's some

0:49:25

serious dysfunction

0:49:27

I think that the answer is not to side

0:49:29

with one party against the other or to

0:49:31

blame one party or or to or to celebrate

0:49:34

one politician as the Savior I think the

0:49:37

solution is to spread the orange wave

0:49:40

right it's the orange solution which is

0:49:42

every every political party every

0:49:45

politician every

0:49:47

movement will find that they will be the

0:49:49

best version of thems they will be more

0:49:52

effective they will be more ethically

0:49:54

grounded they will be more technically

0:49:57

grounded and they will be more

0:49:59

economically grounded in pursuit of

0:50:02

their mission if they Embrace Bitcoin in

0:50:04

the Bitcoin standard and so I so that

0:50:07

has become you know the primary driving

0:50:09

force of my life right now and I I use I

0:50:13

use the Sailor Academy to promote

0:50:17

Bitcoin education and we've done we've

0:50:20

done courses in Austrian economics and

0:50:22

courses in Bitcoin for developers and

0:50:23

courses in Bitcoin for everybody and

0:50:25

courses in monetary history and we do

0:50:28

our best to educate the world in that

0:50:29

mission and in micro strategy we've uh

0:50:33

we've tried to set an example for a

0:50:35

company on the Bitcoin standard and and

0:50:38

not just do the minimum but actually

0:50:41

show how you can adopt a Bitcoin

0:50:43

development strategy and you can you can

0:50:46

grow the network through financial

0:50:48

activity like issuance of equity and

0:50:50

debt and securitizing the network but

0:50:52

also you know we do our best to do our

0:50:54

Bitcoin R&D projects we have we had a

0:50:57

lightning project we have our orange

0:50:59

project we experiments you know working

0:51:01

on Layer Two protocols that might be

0:51:03

helpful and um and then um I get calls

0:51:08

from CEOs and I spend a lot of time my

0:51:11

best my best experiences or when I have

0:51:14

a CEO of a publicly traded company and

0:51:16

they'll say to me I saw what you did

0:51:18

tell me how we could do it like okay let

0:51:20

me tell you you and I'm like I you know

0:51:22

you want me to talk to your board you

0:51:24

want me to talk to your management team

0:51:26

here you know here's everything we did

0:51:27

in Vegas you want to talk to you know

0:51:30

all of our custodians all of our

0:51:32

traditor blah blah blah this is you know

0:51:34

this is what I can help with and I I

0:51:37

think that uh there's a movement of foot

0:51:40

and we can see even as of this week

0:51:42

There's a sea change and there's just a

0:51:45

broad worldwide

0:51:47

consensus that we need something

0:51:50

different than the ideas of the last 30

0:51:53

years we need something new and that

0:51:55

manifests us self in a ground swell of

0:51:58

support for Bitcoin a ground swell of

0:52:00

support for crypto a ground swell of

0:52:02

support for digital assets and a new way

0:52:05

to see the world on Wall Street on Main

0:52:08

Street on Capitol Hill in Europe in Hong

0:52:13

Kong and London Etc and so this is a

0:52:15

very this is maybe the most exciting

0:52:18

time you know in my life and maybe in

0:52:20

the history of Bitcoin I think it's

0:52:22

pretty exciting time yeah but but all

0:52:24

this and look there's been some complex

0:52:27

computer science problem solved with

0:52:29

Bitcoin and Bitcoin technically is

0:52:31

complex but the idea itself is quite

0:52:33

simple it's a fixed limit currency of 21

0:52:36

million with a known issuance rate it's

0:52:39

a very simple monetary policy I know you

0:52:42

have a background in you know systems

0:52:45

design we we interviewed a guy a guy

0:52:46

called Nicholas bowick who reached out

0:52:49

to me he's never been on a podcast I

0:52:51

listened to it yeah I loved it he's

0:52:52

great I mean and aeronautical engineer

0:52:55

honestly he was great question but you

0:52:57

you know you have a background of

0:52:58

understanding systems uh

0:53:01

design how what is it about Bitcoin that

0:53:04

that enables it to do so

0:53:08

much is it is it bringing uh balance to

0:53:12

the world is it is it this kind of ying

0:53:14

yang to the to a financial system where

0:53:18

they've tried to force

0:53:21

stability I think it's it's the three e

0:53:24

it's it's

0:53:27

ethics it's

0:53:29

economics and it's engineering it's

0:53:32

sound ethics sound economics Sound

0:53:35

Engineering um and uh and in ethics it's

0:53:40

this idea of of a fair Ledger and a fair

0:53:46

asset Satoshi created a way Satoshi gave

0:53:51

it away Satoshi went away right if if

0:53:55

you want the road map for an ethical

0:53:58

launch of a decentralized digital

0:54:01

commodity and open protocol for anything

0:54:04

it's you create it you give it away you

0:54:08

disappear right and and you know

0:54:12

Prometheus is not standing around taking

0:54:14

10% of the revenue from fire you know

0:54:17

and suing you for for patent

0:54:19

infringement a million years after

0:54:21

Prometheus gave us fire just create it

0:54:24

give it away go away

0:54:27

uh and so that idea it's very profound

0:54:29

idea because you think about how many

0:54:31

corporations and governments in the

0:54:32

world where you have the bringer of

0:54:35

Truth or the bringer of the solution and

0:54:37

they want to stick around and benefit

0:54:39

it right and so I think Bitcoin sets

0:54:42

that example and uh the second thing is

0:54:46

it's economically sound right you can

0:54:49

create it you know in theory a digital

0:54:52

commodity that's inflationary it's like

0:54:55

you know I can I can create and give

0:54:57

away a protocol that inflates 5% a year

0:55:01

and I can go away and disclaim

0:55:02

beneficial ownership but it's still

0:55:05

messed up like it's still defective like

0:55:07

5% a year means it just keeps inflating

0:55:10

so this simple idea which such an

0:55:12

elegant idea pick a number don't change

0:55:16

number right it's like the number nine

0:55:19

has stood for nine

0:55:23

right one two three four five six seven

0:55:32

eight you know there's got to be a

0:55:35

certain number that is the same it's not

0:55:38

changing next year no one gets to

0:55:40

redefine it there's no debate over it

0:55:43

right

0:55:45

nine right it is a permanent thing

0:55:50

um how important is it well every

0:55:52

machine in the world works on it like

0:55:54

every computer in the world works and if

0:55:56

you actually want a wobble warble nine

0:55:59

to be nine and a half and nine and a

0:56:01

quarter if you want deflection on the

0:56:03

the idea it destroys the machine right

0:56:07

the reason that we use steel is it

0:56:09

doesn't deflect the reason we use math

0:56:12

is it doesn't deflect so this idea of a

0:56:15

fixed number that that nobody could

0:56:18

change that that no Corporation could

0:56:20

corrupt that no politician could corrupt

0:56:23

that no political movement could corrupt

0:56:25

incredible powerful and then the last

0:56:28

idea Sound Engineering well also only

0:56:31

computers could

0:56:32

deliver this couldn't it couldn't have

0:56:34

been done in an analog world even with

0:56:37

gold yeah

0:56:39

um the idea of Bitcoin uh you couldn't

0:56:44

have you couldn't exe execute perfect

0:56:47

money until you had modern the modern

0:56:50

internet modern computers modern

0:56:54

semiconductors right uh modern

0:56:56

cryptography so you needed a combination

0:56:58

of Technologies and and in order to

0:57:01

execute this idea and you know there are

0:57:05

a lot of there are a lot of good

0:57:06

philosophers and Austrian

0:57:09

economists but uh the struggle they had

0:57:13

is maybe they had the right idea but the

0:57:15

technology was not up to implementing an

0:57:18

ideal

0:57:19

notion just like you could be a great

0:57:22

doctor but you know like before

0:57:24

antibiotics and before we before had a

0:57:26

microscope and before you understood

0:57:28

germs there's a limit to what you can

0:57:31

accomplish so it's the in the instrument

0:57:34

one of the themes of scientific history

0:57:36

is until the telescope we couldn't see

0:57:39

the moons of Jupiter until we couldn't

0:57:41

see the moons of Jupiter we couldn't

0:57:42

figure out the Kepler's laws made sense

0:57:45

and and you you would never have

0:57:47

determined that the Earth was revolving

0:57:49

around the Sun until you had the

0:57:51

telescope and that and so an instrument

0:57:54

allows you to prove uh to break a

0:57:57

paradigm and the Paradigm leads to

0:57:59

Newton's laws and that needs to leads to

0:58:02

you know the calculus and the calculus

0:58:04

of variations and then the entire modern

0:58:06

world changes and the same is true with

0:58:09

the microscope so a technology and

0:58:12

instrument gets sufficiently good enough

0:58:14

that it breaks the Paradigm oh germs

0:58:17

maybe not believe people to death right

0:58:20

but it all kind of starts with things

0:58:22

like grinding glass into Optics to see a

0:58:26

very small thing or see a very far away

0:58:29

thing now uh and Bitcoin you know it's

0:58:32

it required pgp it required the internet

0:58:36

it required uh chips not not analog

0:58:40

chips digital chips right and

0:58:43

semiconductors and and CPUs

0:58:47

so that being the case right the third

0:58:49

prong of the Bitcoin stool is

0:58:52

engineering and and the thing that's

0:58:55

beautiful Bitcoin is is it's uh a

0:58:59

balanced stable engineered system but

0:59:02

the way you get there is by combining uh

0:59:06

energy

0:59:08

electricity and something

0:59:10

thermodynamically scarce with Hardware

0:59:16

semiconductors with

0:59:18

software right and and with cryptography

0:59:22

so there's like an element of math and

0:59:24

cryptography

0:59:26

uh and and there's an element of

0:59:28

semiconductors and you're running them

0:59:30

with electricity when you put all three

0:59:33

of them together in an open

0:59:35

protocol then what you have is something

0:59:38

which is stable that spreads virally you

0:59:41

know and eventually you get you know the

0:59:43

Asic Wars and then and then what happens

0:59:46

is people build big Bitcoin mining

0:59:48

centers and everybody thinks oh that's

0:59:51

not that's bad that's centralizing but

0:59:52

of course the mining centers suck up so

0:59:54

much electricity that they eventually

0:59:56

have to run to the edge of the grid and

0:59:58

they're always running away from the

1:00:00

center of civilization to the person

1:00:02

that has the stranded energy because you

1:00:04

need almost zero cost energy so what

1:00:08

does that do well that creates a it

1:00:10

creates a phrase balance of power right

1:00:14

I mean which is H you know kind of it

1:00:16

means a lot of different things but we

1:00:18

need a balance of power for the system

1:00:20

to be stable and how do I make it

1:00:23

unstable I take away the hard component

1:00:26

if I if I go to proof of stake all of a

1:00:29

sudden your balance of power means well

1:00:31

I don't need I don't need $5 billion a

1:00:33

year of electricity so that means people

1:00:36

that have electricity are not actors and

1:00:39

I don't need Hardware anymore and that

1:00:41

means that uh that there's no inertia

1:00:44

from the hardware and now I just need a

1:00:47

software node and now and now of course

1:00:50

all of those nodes can be running in the

1:00:53

Amazon cloud or they can they could

1:00:55

collapse down to 27 computers in one

1:00:57

city and you would a you wouldn't know

1:01:01

and B you wouldn't care and and so the

1:01:04

system becomes very very fragile

1:01:06

aeronautical Engineers are very

1:01:08

sensitive to this one of the reasons

1:01:09

that that uh they like Bitcoin I think

1:01:12

is in an in a in an

1:01:15

aircraft you have to

1:01:18

consider all these factors the shape of

1:01:20

the aircraft matters but the but the

1:01:23

avionics matter but the balance matter

1:01:25

Ms but the conditions matter and when

1:01:28

you design the aircraft someone goes

1:01:31

yeah I just want to change the couch you

1:01:33

know you want to change the couch and

1:01:35

and put a different couch in an aircraft

1:01:37

they might charge you

1:01:39

$96,000 of engineering to actually run

1:01:42

the weights the balances they got to

1:01:44

consider will the couch catch fire in

1:01:46

you know in the event of a crash landing

1:01:48

right is the couch rated for 16 G's or

1:01:51

will the couch break loose and kill

1:01:53

everybody you know Etc and so you have

1:01:56

all of these second order third order

1:01:58

fourth order concerns in in aviation and

1:02:02

Aeronautical Engineering a and you don't

1:02:05

really have those concerns if you're

1:02:07

just a hacker and so so people people

1:02:11

that are computer

1:02:13

programmers they just write code it

1:02:15

works their world is very

1:02:18

simple but uh but people that build

1:02:21

spaceships and you know and people that

1:02:24

build airplanes they have to consider a

1:02:27

circumstance where one system fails one

1:02:30

system gets jammed there's a storm

1:02:33

there's wind shear and all of those

1:02:35

things are irrelevant except in the last

1:02:38

15 seconds of the flight when they're

1:02:39

certainly going to kill you and they

1:02:41

have to design the system such that in

1:02:43

the last 15 seconds of the flight if

1:02:45

such and such happens we don't all die

1:02:48

but Bitcoin similar to Austin Hill said

1:02:49

this to me he said he said the engineer

1:02:51

of Bitcoin needs to be like uh aircraft

1:02:54

engineer or um rocket Engineering in

1:02:57

that you cannot have a catastrophic

1:02:59

failure a catastrophic bug I mean look I

1:03:02

know bitcoin's had it in the past but

1:03:04

catastrophic inflation

1:03:06

bug could be terminal for

1:03:10

Bitcoin I totally agree yeah I I totally

1:03:13

agree the more you know about

1:03:16

engineering and and I think the more you

1:03:19

know about

1:03:21

economics and the more you know about

1:03:24

ethics the more conservative and the

1:03:28

more considerate you become about any

1:03:31

change to the protocol like you you

1:03:34

radically change uh from proof of work

1:03:37

to proof of stake it's not just uh an

1:03:40

engineering lapse where you centralize

1:03:43

and you make the system unstable it's

1:03:45

also an ethical lapse because now you've

1:03:48

actually created a staking Network and

1:03:49

you converted a commodity into a

1:03:51

security an investment contract you know

1:03:54

and and it's you know it's also an

1:03:55

economic lapse long term because you

1:03:58

have destroyed part of the free market

1:04:01

that was supporting your network right

1:04:03

you've just you've just nationalized $20

1:04:06

billion do worth of mining Rigs and

1:04:08

seized them and now you've just

1:04:11

disincentivized any any minor from ever

1:04:13

investing in your ecosystem ever again

1:04:16

and you've disincentivized anybody else

1:04:19

if a government seizes $10 billion of

1:04:21

your property you want to invest money

1:04:24

in that country right so so it's an

1:04:27

economic disaster to nationalize

1:04:29

property and it's an e it's an ethical

1:04:32

disaster to steal from somebody or or to

1:04:36

or to seize control of what should be a

1:04:40

central a decentralized network or a

1:04:42

commodity network but also it's an

1:04:44

engineering disaster because you've

1:04:48

basically taken something which is anti-

1:04:50

fragile nearly

1:04:52

indestructible that is guaranteed to get

1:04:56

secure uh technically over time and

1:04:59

you've converted it in into you know a

1:05:03

bunch of software running on a server

1:05:06

and you're hoping that the five people

1:05:08

that control the updates don't get

1:05:11

compromised right you if I if I get

1:05:13

control of the people that control the

1:05:15

code that that release or unrelease

1:05:17

staked assets that's a problem but you

1:05:21

could shut down all Bitcoin development

1:05:23

right and and arrest every single

1:05:26

developer the miners are going to keep

1:05:28

working and someone would spin up a new

1:05:31

Development Group in some other country

1:05:34

you know and and and start to work from

1:05:36

where we left off so I I think that um

1:05:41

that uh Engineers system Engineers are

1:05:45

naturally very uh they're very

1:05:48

thoughtful and and they want to create

1:05:50

sta self-stabilizing systems for example

1:05:54

you design an airplane plane you put the

1:05:56

wings down like this it's

1:06:00

unstable okay it'll spin fast but that

1:06:03

means it'll go into a tail spin or a

1:06:05

death spiral crash and

1:06:07

burn if you lose control of it for 50

1:06:11

Mills or 100 milliseconds that's a very

1:06:14

dangerous machine you need very

1:06:16

complicated uh software if you design

1:06:19

the plane with the wing swept up like

1:06:22

this when it turns like this this you

1:06:25

you know what happens is this Wing loses

1:06:28

lift this Wing gets more lift and it

1:06:30

wants to come back to Center you know

1:06:33

just like why are ships designed with a

1:06:35

certain hole shape because when it goes

1:06:37

like this you want it to swing back why

1:06:40

don't we put a big weight on top of the

1:06:42

ship like over the mass because when it

1:06:44

goes like this it wants to

1:06:46

capsize

1:06:48

so ocean

1:06:50

Engineers civil engineers aeronautical

1:06:54

Engineers mechanical Eng engers you know

1:06:57

they they know that software is is

1:07:00

useful but software is not all the end

1:07:02

all end all be right it's it's your

1:07:05

relationship to the laws of

1:07:07

thermodynamics and the laws of gravity

1:07:10

right and Ren's law and viscosity and

1:07:13

you and it's your relationship to

1:07:15

Maxwell's equations and

1:07:19

electromagnetics etc those things

1:07:21

determine whether you crash and burn and

1:07:24

sink and if you've got a stable vehicle

1:07:28

or a stable Network yeah you can write

1:07:30

some software and maybe you need some

1:07:33

software right I mean I need software in

1:07:35

airplane uh and you can and and and Well

1:07:39

Done software makes it safer but when

1:07:42

the software engineers get out of

1:07:44

control like on the Boeing 737 Max and

1:07:48

someone says well we have to upgrade the

1:07:50

software and we have to do the latest

1:07:53

greatest right and and and let's just go

1:07:56

ahead and get the update out the result

1:07:59

is the software actually overrides the

1:08:01

human makes the plane unstable and

1:08:04

crashes the plane and kills everybody

1:08:06

and maybe it kills the entire company I

1:08:08

mean that also wasn't that uh a software

1:08:11

hack to solve a problem whereby they

1:08:14

wanted to upgrade the plane for bigger

1:08:17

engines but they didn't want to upgrade

1:08:20

the the hull I can't remember what part

1:08:22

the the fuch yeah the fuch they didn't

1:08:24

want it this and so they ended up it was

1:08:26

a hack really wasn't it but it's but

1:08:28

it's again it's come back to systems

1:08:30

engineering they tried to hack around

1:08:33

what they should have done which is

1:08:34

build a new fuselage I'm going to tell

1:08:35

you two two quick stories one is is if

1:08:38

you look at the 737 it was designed in

1:08:40

the late 60s and and the the shape of

1:08:42

the 737 and the style of it once you

1:08:45

have a fuch shage design you've worked

1:08:48

that out in a wind tonnel and that's

1:08:50

stable you can generally make it a

1:08:52

little bit longer without having to redo

1:08:55

all the engineering but if you make it

1:08:56

wider or change the shape every single

1:08:59

assumption gets thrown out the door

1:09:01

change the shape of the fucha slightly

1:09:03

the plane crashes and burns and it

1:09:05

becomes a 10 billion or or hundred

1:09:07

billion dollar exercise to do a new

1:09:08

plane that's why the 737 didn't change

1:09:11

for 40 years the the Golf Stream 5 is

1:09:14

based upon the design of the golf stream

1:09:16

4 based on the design of the golf stream

1:09:19

3 based on the design of the golf stream

1:09:21

2 which is a 70s aircraft so for 40

1:09:24

years the golf stream didn't change

1:09:26

Global Express same thing you don't want

1:09:28

to change these airplanes and and and

1:09:32

that teaches aeronautical Engineers to

1:09:34

be humble it's like yeah I've got this

1:09:37

new idea it will look cool let's just

1:09:39

add this one thing but the one thing

1:09:41

might very well just kill everybody and

1:09:43

so you become very thoughtful careful

1:09:48

humble one more one more observation

1:09:50

this is a funny one but I had a chance

1:09:53

to to go on a tour of uh the US uh

1:09:57

military the dod uh and the same tour

1:10:01

that all the generals take when they

1:10:02

first make General and they would take

1:10:04

some VIPs and they would take you to the

1:10:06

Pentagon and show you how they fight

1:10:07

Wars and then they took us to show us

1:10:09

the the ballistic submarine pins and we

1:10:11

went into a ballistic nuclear powered

1:10:13

submarine and then uh they took us uh

1:10:16

out to Camp Wun and we saw Marine

1:10:18

Amphibious invasions you know and then

1:10:21

we saw Air Force Special Ops and we went

1:10:23

to Fort Hood and we saw you know tanks

1:10:26

and we got in tanks and we fired the

1:10:28

tank you know fired the you know the

1:10:30

tank artillery and learned what it was

1:10:32

like and and then uh they flew us out

1:10:35

and we we landed on an aircraft carrier

1:10:37

I landed on the John stennis which is a

1:10:40

nuclear powered aircraft carrier in the

1:10:41

middle of the Atlantic you know and a

1:10:44

Cod slammed down got off the carrier and

1:10:47

I'm walking around the aircraft carrier

1:10:50

and um they give us the VIP and they

1:10:53

take us to the combat control center and

1:10:55

they take us the you know all through

1:10:57

the the carrier and then part of the

1:10:59

tour is they take us to a room it's

1:11:02

about as big as this room underneath the

1:11:06

landing deck underneath the flight deck

1:11:08

and literally um it's like the planes

1:11:10

are landing 8 feet above your head and

1:11:14

they're slamming and you would sit in

1:11:16

the room and you could hear this jet an

1:11:19

F14 you know slamming down you know on

1:11:23

the jet of the uh aircraft carrier and

1:11:27

you know what's in the room is a long

1:11:29

cable and there's a little black and

1:11:32

white television uh closed circuit TV

1:11:35

black and white TV and there's three

1:11:39

naval enlisted people seen you know and

1:11:43

the one of them has a

1:11:46

clipboard and the other one is uh

1:11:50

staring at the television and the third

1:11:54

one is standing next next to a big

1:11:57

crank so they stare at the television

1:12:00

and I can see the airplane coming on

1:12:02

approach and it's Slams on the deck bam

1:12:05

you could hear it guy

1:12:07

goes Mark three and the next Sean goes

1:12:11

Mark three check and we wait and I'm

1:12:15

with like a I'm with an officer like a

1:12:17

pilot and he's showing me around and I

1:12:19

stare at it again and in 60 seconds you

1:12:22

see a plane coming down and slams into

1:12:25

the deck you can hear the entire room

1:12:28

Rattle and the Seaman goes mark four and

1:12:33

the next one goes Mark for

1:12:38

check and the guy with the clipboard

1:12:38

does a check okay and I say to this guy

1:12:42

I'm with the officer I said what are

1:12:43

they doing it looks like they're just

1:12:45

counting Landings off of a it's like two

1:12:49

people or three people to watch planes

1:12:51

slam into the into the aircraft carrier

1:12:54

he's like yeah that's what they're doing

1:12:56

and he said he said I said really he

1:12:59

goes yeah they're going to count to 100

1:13:01

and when they get to 100 that guy there

1:13:04

is going to pull that

1:13:06

crank and this cable is going to rotate

1:13:10

they're going to replace the existing

1:13:11

steel cable the cable is the tail hook

1:13:14

cable that winds up to the deck and when

1:13:17

that plane lands the tail hook would

1:13:20

catch the cable yeah and it would keep

1:13:23

the plane from from crashing into into

1:13:25

the ocean and I look and I look at it I

1:13:28

go well I mean isn't this something they

1:13:30

could computerize I mean you would think

1:13:32

a computer could count from one to 100

1:13:36

right and uh and then just rotate the

1:13:38

cable and he goes yeah a lot of people

1:13:41

think that but this is the way we've

1:13:44

done it since World War II and it's

1:13:47

never failed us right and and it's it's

1:13:51

in the greater scheme of things the

1:13:53

people aren't that expensive you know

1:13:55

they're making minimum wage they're like

1:13:58

you know first term of Duty 19yearold

1:14:01

Airmen and there's there's triple

1:14:04

redundancy and if they screw that up if

1:14:07

that system failed the Pilot's going to

1:14:09

die it's going to be a 40 million doll

1:14:12

disaster and maybe maybe it's a disaster

1:14:15

for the entire you know multi-billion

1:14:16

dollar carrier so this is just the way

1:14:18

we do it

1:14:20

right and it just shows you how

1:14:22

conservative people can get you know and

1:14:25

and I could give you a hundred examples

1:14:27

like that in the military where if

1:14:29

there's lives on the line and there's a

1:14:31

lot of energy and a lot of power

1:14:33

sometimes the you know the

1:14:37

supercoder might not be the right

1:14:39

solution you might not want to trust

1:14:41

your life to a piece of software that

1:14:43

might get

1:14:44

fried well I think I think conservatives

1:14:47

make conservatism is making a comeback

1:14:51

in all aspects of life I think uh I

1:14:53

think people living in New York and

1:14:55

San Francisco wanted a little bit of

1:14:57

political conservatism um

1:15:00

so I agree with you there so so we look

1:15:03

let's touch on it because there is this

1:15:07

perception maybe it's right or wrong but

1:15:09

you'll tell me there is this perception

1:15:10

that you're keen on oifc and I was

1:15:12

chatting to you last night and I said I

1:15:15

had actually heard you use the word oifc

1:15:17

but uh my discussion with Danny was I

1:15:21

don't

1:15:23

think Michael wants I ification whereby

1:15:26

the code is frozen which by the way

1:15:27

probably can't be done but I think uh I

1:15:30

said it's probably more like a stale

1:15:32

made where where it's very hard to get

1:15:34

things through and we're at a time where

1:15:36

there's a there's like a new guard of uh

1:15:39

Bitcoin developers and an Old Guard of

1:15:41

Bitcoin developers the old guard's very

1:15:43

conservative and the new guard is

1:15:45

wanting wanting to move out the way

1:15:47

because I want to do things they want to

1:15:48

build things opcat and various other

1:15:51

things I'm certainly in the world of

1:15:52

being more conservative but there is

1:15:54

this perception that you keen on

1:15:57

alific yeah um I don't know where that

1:15:59

started because I've never used the word

1:16:02

oif I've never even discussed the issue

1:16:04

I've never tweeted it I've never I've

1:16:06

never mentioned it in a podcast I think

1:16:10

um if you would ask me my opinion on

1:16:13

bitcoin development I would say

1:16:16

considerate and

1:16:18

conservative right and and I would I

1:16:21

think that uh there are a lot of people

1:16:24

in the Bitcoin that have well-considered

1:16:27

uh well-considered proposals you know

1:16:30

I'm you know I've listened to your

1:16:32

discussions with Steve Lee and with John

1:16:36

carvalo and uh and I I think there are a

1:16:39

lot of people and with Bitcoin cords

1:16:41

like Gloria Xiao and I think that

1:16:43

they're very considered very responsible

1:16:47

um I've uh I've been uh a big supporter

1:16:51

of uh the Bitcoin security initiative at

1:16:53

MIT and and I think

1:16:57

generally my view on this

1:17:06

is Bitcoin is an extraordinary protocol

1:17:06

maybe the most successful protocol the

1:17:09

most important protocol in human history

1:17:11

certainly it's up there with uh base 10

1:17:14

math and English and and and uh the like

1:17:19

so I I think the Bitcoin protocol is

1:17:21

very important I also think that um we

1:17:26

ought to prioritize Integrity you know

1:17:29

you said am I in favor of Bitcoin

1:17:31

ocation no but am I in favor of Bitcoin

1:17:34

Integrity yes Bitcoin security yes right

1:17:39

uh Bitcoin stability yes um I definitely

1:17:42

believe in stability like do I yeah do I

1:17:47

think that the numbers one through

1:17:50

n are stable yeah if you want to call

1:17:54

them aifi

1:17:55

you know we could debate it but I think

1:17:56

it's an irrelevant thing I think OIC is

1:17:58

a straw man put forth by people that

1:18:00

have a progressive proposal and if

1:18:02

someone says hold it now let's think

1:18:04

about it right they could say well you

1:18:06

just you just don't want to change

1:18:08

anything well I mean the truth

1:18:11

is I I think it's a mistake to presume

1:18:15

that you have to change the protocol in

1:18:18

order for Bitcoin to be successful um I

1:18:21

think there's a lot of software I mean

1:18:24

that you you have to write software to

1:18:25

make the nodes run you have to write

1:18:27

software to make the Bitcoin mining work

1:18:29

you have to write software for the

1:18:30

wallets you have to write software for

1:18:32

communication you have to consider bugs

1:18:34

and the software that might prevent the

1:18:36

nodes from coordinating right you have

1:18:38

there's a lot of software to consider

1:18:40

and if someone wants to write a full

1:18:43

node uh Bitcoin that runs on the iOS

1:18:46

versus Android versus some new operating

1:18:49

system versus whatever right I think

1:18:51

those are all reasonable considerations

1:18:53

and and we're going to write software I

1:18:57

even think it's there's a place to write

1:18:58

software to check the network right is

1:19:01

the network healthy to to monitor the

1:19:04

network and uh and so I I'm not against

1:19:07

software if you said to me uh there's a

1:19:09

contention of mathematicians that want

1:19:11

to introduce a new integer between seven

1:19:20

eight I would think let's be considerate

1:19:20

and conservative in that and let's

1:19:22

consider what we're going to break right

1:19:24

okay so you could almost like partition

1:19:26

this between what is op codes and

1:19:30

expansion of what the protocol to do can

1:19:32

do versus uh when like you said

1:19:35

integrity and security protection of the

1:19:38

network from uh uh catastrophic failures

1:19:42

attacks

1:19:43

hacks are you seeing those as two

1:19:45

different things it's your your it's not

1:19:48

that you're you want conservatism around

1:19:52

much more conservativism around the

1:19:54

expansion what the protocol can do

1:19:56

defend the network don't f with the

1:19:58

network make sure the network is healthy

1:20:01

don't

1:20:02

introduce don't introduce um risks

1:20:07

unnecessary risks to the network that

1:20:09

might infect it with uh with the disease

1:20:13

but but but any I mean any substantial

1:20:17

change there'll always be some I mean we

1:20:19

saw that with tap rout right with tap

1:20:21

rout we made it a lot easier uh for

1:20:25

people to put

1:20:26

inscriptions and so that that was that

1:20:28

was an unintended consequence is that

1:20:30

was that like a warning shot for you was

1:20:32

that was that what made you think about

1:20:34

this you know um everybody's Bitcoin

1:20:37

journey is different I mean I didn't

1:20:38

really start thinking hard about Bitcoin

1:20:40

until

1:20:41

2020 and my focus on bitcoin was the the

1:20:46

asset the economics the adoption

1:20:49

throughout the rest of the

1:20:50

world and um if you if you look

1:20:55

at all my writings and look at all my

1:20:58

podcast you won't see that I ever took a

1:21:01

public position on bitcoin development

1:21:05

Bitcoin core segwit tap rout or the like

1:21:08

in fact segwit was before me before my

1:21:12

time right uh during you know as a

1:21:14

resolution to the blocksize wars or at

1:21:16

least an outcome of right it was an

1:21:19

artifact of the blocksize wars and uh I

1:21:22

just accepted it as a given and then tap

1:21:25

route took place early in my Bitcoin

1:21:27

journey and I didn't really focus on

1:21:30

whether it was risky or not risky and

1:21:32

and good or bad uh I've I

1:21:36

think I'm only now getting to the point

1:21:40

where I start to think

1:21:42

hard about uh about the philosophy of

1:21:46

Bitcoin development and and I think

1:21:48

that's appropriate wait four years study

1:21:50

things think about it because maybe your

1:21:52

opinion when you first get started might

1:21:55

be modified by by some experiences just

1:21:59

to add to that

1:22:01

is are you having to consider how much

1:22:04

people listen to in the weight of

1:22:06

opinions you might have if I have an

1:22:09

opinion certain certain number of people

1:22:11

listen to if you have a a lot of people

1:22:12

might listen to and and is that do you

1:22:14

feel the way to that I I yes I do feel

1:22:18

like there's a responsibility if you're

1:22:19

a leader in the community uh don't

1:22:22

create inflammation

1:22:25

yeah like

1:22:27

don't um you can have 100 opinions

1:22:30

privately and share it with your circle

1:22:32

of trust and you may or may not be you

1:22:35

may be right you may be wrong but that's

1:22:36

how you learn so I think I think being

1:22:39

private and considerate and exploring

1:22:41

your opinions and developing an opinion

1:22:43

is reasonable but if you just go on

1:22:46

Twitter and start spouting a 100

1:22:48

definitive opinions about a 100 things

1:22:51

what's clear what's certain is you

1:22:53

probably aren't the expert in each of

1:22:55

the hundred areas and you probably don't

1:22:56

have the most invested in each of the

1:22:58

hundred areas so generally you just

1:23:01

enrage a lot of people who know more or

1:23:05

who have a lot more invested in it so I

1:23:07

think you ought to wait until you've

1:23:09

actually gathered enough information and

1:23:12

you have a a point of view which is

1:23:15

considered that's worth sharing so

1:23:18

that's why I mean you if you look at me

1:23:20

on Twitter I don't engage in the debates

1:23:22

over you know this proposal or that

1:23:26

proposal and and I might have a private

1:23:28

opinion about it and I might I've

1:23:30

expressed private opinions that I I

1:23:33

think we should be careful and very

1:23:36

conservative uh but I don't you know I

1:23:39

don't then convert that into and

1:23:40

therefore that means you should not

1:23:42

support this or you should not do that

1:23:45

because the devil's in the details let

1:23:48

let me just make a point about

1:23:50

philosophy though um the Bitcoin

1:23:53

protocol is the ESS governance it's the

1:23:55

government of Bitcoin the nation if

1:23:59

Bitcoin was a nation the protocol is the

1:24:02

body of laws that govern the nation and

1:24:05

protocol has no statute of limitation so

1:24:08

for all practical purposes when you put

1:24:11

something in the protocol it's like

1:24:12

writing a law that might very well last

1:24:15

a thousand

1:24:16

years so that being the case if you ask

1:24:19

me what is My Philosophy about politics

1:24:22

I'm in favor of small government not big

1:24:25

government I'm in favor of less not more

1:24:29

I'm in favor of free markets not uh

1:24:33

Central uh or not government mandated

1:24:36

agencies if there's a choice between

1:24:38

should the government do it or should a

1:24:40

a corporation or a free actor do it I

1:24:42

think the government should stay out of

1:24:44

it um if uh if a bunch of people come to

1:24:49

the nation's capital and they have a

1:24:51

hundred ideas for a 100 ways to make

1:24:54

government more beneficial to you and

1:24:57

they want to help you by giving you

1:24:59

government mandated food and government

1:25:01

issued education and government issued

1:25:04

Fillin the blank I'm fairly skeptical

1:25:07

and and I actually admire I admire uh

1:25:12

you know politicians like Reagan that

1:25:14

said government isn't the solution

1:25:16

government is the problem and how about

1:25:19

an initiative where you make the

1:25:20

government smaller not

1:25:23

bigger right and of course lobbyists and

1:25:26

politicians they think government is the

1:25:28

solution of everything and they want to

1:25:29

intervene and what you say what you eat

1:25:32

your medicine how you you know raise

1:25:34

your children how you educate how you

1:25:37

travel where you can go you know and in

1:25:40

the extreme you know the government

1:25:41

might tell you you're not allowed to

1:25:43

have Thanksgiving dinner with six people

1:25:44

in your family or sit more than six feet

1:25:47

away from someone and so and your own

1:25:49

private home so so I I'm in favor of

1:25:51

small government and in the same way I'm

1:25:54

not in favor of big protocol I'm in

1:25:57

favor of small protocol I'm in favor of

1:26:00

of um do the

1:26:03

minimum if if you believe the government

1:26:05

should do the minimum to control your

1:26:07

life you believe that the protocol

1:26:09

should do the minimum because it's very

1:26:12

hard you know to reverse this and if you

1:26:16

look at the history of civilization

1:26:18

every Empire starts small and struggling

1:26:22

it's the underdog and and you're trying

1:26:25

to struggle to live and then at some

1:26:27

point they win and when they win they

1:26:31

conclude that they're they're the most

1:26:33

virtuous and then they get rich and then

1:26:36

when they get rich they start creating

1:26:38

more laws and those laws get to be

1:26:41

ridiculous and they create inflation and

1:26:44

they create

1:26:45

regulation and I think most people in

1:26:48

the Bitcoin Community are against

1:26:49

inflation and I think we're against

1:26:51

regulation and the whole the whole irony

1:26:53

is Bitcoin is a technology to escape to

1:26:57

escape devic or or or the the uh

1:27:02

oppression of inflation and

1:27:05

regulation so why would we want to

1:27:07

encourage inflation in the protocol and

1:27:09

regulation in the protocol sorry can you

1:27:12

define inflation in the protocol and

1:27:14

regulation in the protocol just so I

1:27:15

understand the analogy yeah I mean if I

1:27:19

dump another million lines of code that

1:27:21

does another when I'm adding

1:27:23

functionality and performance and

1:27:25

scalability Via features and I'm writing

1:27:27

all this code I inan creating

1:27:29

inflationary Dynamics in the protocol

1:27:33

I'm what is inflation I'm I'm

1:27:36

devaluing something else what whatever

1:27:39

that else whatever that else is I might

1:27:41

be undermining the security I might be

1:27:43

undermining the Simplicity I might be in

1:27:46

the protocol is encroaching on the free

1:27:49

market and I I won't say in all

1:27:53

circumstance es changes to government

1:27:55

enro encroach on the free market you

1:27:58

could actually in theory pass a law

1:28:00

which shrinks the

1:28:01

government right you could you could

1:28:04

make changes to the government that

1:28:06

makes it smaller

1:28:08

but I guess I would say I'm not in favor

1:28:12

of any

1:28:12

law because some laws make government

1:28:15

bigger and they're inflationary and

1:28:17

they're Regulatory and they're

1:28:19

oppressive some laws might make

1:28:22

government smaller and more more

1:28:24

efficient and more effective and so I

1:28:26

would consider any law code is law right

1:28:31

when you write code you're just writing

1:28:32

a law on cyberspace right I mean

1:28:35

software developers are the lawyers of

1:28:38

cyberspace when they write law and you

1:28:42

know it's one thing you write code for

1:28:45

your application like cash app it's a

1:28:48

layer three app you're risking your

1:28:50

shareholders money and your corporate

1:28:52

credibility but you're not going to

1:28:54

crash the Bitcoin Network when you write

1:28:57

code for Layer Two you've got to be a

1:28:59

bit more a bit more consensus driven

1:29:02

because now there's a hundred or a

1:29:03

thousand other companies that have to

1:29:04

work with your lightning or work with

1:29:06

your whatever and you have to go a 100

1:29:08

times

1:29:08

slower but when you write code for layer

1:29:11

one the protocol like either you're

1:29:16

you're in different stages in the first

1:29:18

few years of Bitcoin it wasn't sure it

1:29:20

would work you had the catastrophic

1:29:22

inflation bug and you have to move fast

1:29:24

and take risks and you might destroy it

1:29:27

I mean most of the early protocols were

1:29:29

defective I mean there's a 99.9% failure

1:29:33

rate but in this particular case Bitcoin

1:29:35

survived you know they took that risk

1:29:37

and they survived and yeah Satoshi

1:29:40

changed a lot of stuff fast but Satoshi

1:29:42

was risking a million dollars or1

1:29:45

million today we have $ 1.4

1:29:48

trillion but and we are in the third

1:29:51

stage I think the second stage was like

1:29:53

the block size Wars around then where

1:29:57

there was something very valuable and

1:29:59

there was some serious issues to be

1:30:01

worked out and you had multiple camps

1:30:03

and the protocol did suffer inflation

1:30:06

segwit was inflation the big blockers

1:30:08

would have been more inflationary so

1:30:10

there's a lot of Regulation inflation

1:30:12

was in how was seg inflation it C it it

1:30:16

it took the block from one megabyte to 4

1:30:18

megabytes right it created all that all

1:30:21

that extra block space right so you

1:30:23

could do

1:30:25

things with uh with a segwit that you

1:30:27

couldn't do before but some would argue

1:30:30

that that was good for Bitcoin I think

1:30:31

it was good for Bitcoin it wasn't

1:30:34

necessarily good for the Bitcoin miners

1:30:36

right the point is if you increase the

1:30:38

block size and and you change that

1:30:40

Dynamic it's not clear you didn't

1:30:42

bankrupt a bunch of Bitcoin miners that

1:30:43

would still be in business today so you

1:30:46

know we can go back and forth but it

1:30:48

stands the reason that when you add

1:30:51

functionality or scalability or

1:30:53

performance ments you're actually

1:30:56

depriving someone else in the ecosystem

1:30:58

of their property rights of their

1:31:01

opportunity right and so you know a a

1:31:04

perfect example like if I took the block

1:31:06

size up by a factor of 10 and

1:31:08

transaction fees Fall by a factor of 10

1:31:11

right there's someone on the other side

1:31:12

of transaction fees they've just had

1:31:14

their revenue destroyed right and so so

1:31:18

uh that is inflationary and it Al it

1:31:22

inflates if you in

1:31:24

it'd be obvious if you just took 21

1:31:26

million to 42 million that's that's

1:31:28

first order inflation but when you

1:31:31

increase the bandwidth from one megabyte

1:31:33

blocks to four megabyte blocks that's

1:31:35

second order inflation if I take the

1:31:37

transaction bandwidth up by a factor of

1:31:40

a 100 that's hyperinflation of the

1:31:43

bandwidth in the second order that would

1:31:45

bankrupt all the Bitcoin Miners and so

1:31:48

if you bankrupt all the Bitcoin miners

1:31:50

you know there's an ethical lapse

1:31:52

there's an economic lapse there's also a

1:31:55

thermodynamic or a security lapse and

1:31:58

not only are you depriving the Bitcoin

1:32:00

miners of their property you're also

1:32:02

depriving the Bitcoin holders of their

1:32:04

security and you're undermining the

1:32:06

political stability the economic

1:32:07

stability of the holders as well as the

1:32:10

minors and you're doing it maybe to

1:32:13

create fast blocks or more bandwidth but

1:32:16

there's been a lot of work that's been

1:32:17

done to make uh transactions more

1:32:20

efficient um blocks more efficient so is

1:32:23

all that work inflationary are they all

1:32:25

all is that you know is all that

1:32:29

depriving the miners I I think the

1:32:31

ethical the ethical line here is if the

1:32:35

free market does it consistent with the

1:32:38

existing protocol then that's just a

1:32:41

darwinian evolution of the free market

1:32:43

like like if people all decide to use

1:32:45

cash app and do lightning transfers

1:32:48

between cash app and

1:32:50

coinbase and we didn't change the

1:32:52

protocol yeah the there is a decrease in

1:32:56

transaction fees but the point is you

1:33:00

didn't jam it into the protocol against

1:33:02

the will of everybody in the Bitcoin

1:33:05

ecosystem it was a natural

1:33:07

artifact right of of the free market and

1:33:11

I think that that the free market

1:33:12

naturally will uh create more efficient

1:33:15

companies and more efficient layer to

1:33:17

protocols and they will scale the

1:33:19

network they are scaling the network and

1:33:22

that is a risk but you don't believe

1:33:24

we're done scaling at the protocol level

1:33:26

do you let me come back to this when I

1:33:29

invested a billion dollars in my Bitcoin

1:33:31

mining rig I I accepted the risks of the

1:33:36

existing protocol when someone changes

1:33:40

the the protocol so as to bankrupt me

1:33:43

with a protocol chains right they have

1:33:46

actually deprived me of my economic

1:33:48

rights and introduced a risk I didn't

1:33:50

sign up for right that's that's the

1:33:53

ethical distinction which converts

1:33:55

something in some cases from a commodity

1:33:57

to a security right if a

1:34:00

government if I go into uh a country and

1:34:04

I invest billions of dollars in a

1:34:06

Bitcoin mining rig and it's legal and

1:34:08

then the guy wins the election and

1:34:10

changes the law and makes it illegal and

1:34:12

seizes all my Bitcoin mining rigs right

1:34:15

that was an ethical lapse right at the

1:34:17

at the governmental protocol level so if

1:34:21

I go and I invest in Bitcoin mining and

1:34:23

then then uh a bunch of companies launch

1:34:26

some ETFs and all of a sudden the

1:34:27

transaction fees go to zero because

1:34:30

companies launched an application on

1:34:32

layer four of the network the free

1:34:34

market bankrupted me but you know a

1:34:39

protocol developer didn't so the point

1:34:42

really is but hold on so sorry I do want

1:34:44

to challenge this because um I don't

1:34:47

think

1:34:48

you I think when you sign up when you

1:34:50

put a billion dollars in I think you're

1:34:51

signing up to a protocol that you know

1:34:54

has a developer community that does have

1:34:56

changes that's that's something you

1:34:58

accept you can voice opinion that you

1:35:01

want it to be conservative or not change

1:35:03

but but we do want the protocol to be

1:35:05

more efficient at a protocol level and

1:35:08

you know we have had important changes

1:35:10

bit bit 16 that brought in multisig

1:35:13

we've dealt with transaction Mal

1:35:14

malleability we've we we have had segwit

1:35:17

that brought lightning I I think these

1:35:19

changes are always going to come and and

1:35:23

and I with you on the conservatism but I

1:35:26

still think changes to the Bitcoin

1:35:28

protocol is the free market because it

1:35:31

kind it's never one developer who can

1:35:32

change things develop I mean look we've

1:35:34

seen developers want to bring things in

1:35:36

and they've just haven't managed to get

1:35:37

the consensus from other developers it

1:35:39

has to go through social consensus uh

1:35:42

for a softw to get approved you know

1:35:44

miners have to signal so isn't that the

1:35:46

free market deciding that they want the

1:35:49

upgrades you know I don't see it that

1:35:51

way I I see it as

1:35:54

I'm a lawyer I go to

1:35:56

London I Lobby a politician to pass a

1:35:59

law making it illegal for soccer clubs

1:36:02

to operate in Bedford and and you know

1:36:05

in response and in response the lawyer

1:36:08

passes the law because I gave him a

1:36:10

campaign donation and I explained how I

1:36:12

wanted to turn bford into the next

1:36:14

Disney

1:36:15

World and it's going to bring jobs at

1:36:17

Disney and I think that you would be

1:36:19

irate if someone if if a a lawyer or

1:36:23

lobbyist was lobbying for laws that

1:36:26

impact your family your business your

1:36:28

friends and and I would be like oh it's

1:36:31

just the free market okay I went to DC

1:36:34

and I got a law passed that made the

1:36:35

pipeline illegal oh who paid me to get

1:36:38

the law pass the other pipeline so

1:36:40

there's one guy that's got $50 billion

1:36:42

do because he's got the only Pipeline

1:36:44

and the and the second pipeline was shut

1:36:46

down by some lobbying in DC I view that

1:36:50

as corruption and so I I I think

1:36:54

I I think that if you're able to deprive

1:36:58

some economic actor in your nation or

1:37:00

your network of billions of dollars or

1:37:03

millions or hundreds of thousands or

1:37:05

trillions of dollars of economic

1:37:08

property rights by lobbying to actually

1:37:11

change the law right I think that that

1:37:14

that introduces moral hazard and so I

1:37:17

think that I think that uh protocol

1:37:20

changes like would you be supportive of

1:37:22

a protocol change that stole $50 billion

1:37:25

from a company in the Bitcoin ecosystem

1:37:29

I wouldn't be supportive yeah so so the

1:37:32

and and some somebody else says well you

1:37:34

know it's just a free market well well I

1:37:37

would say it like this but but hold on

1:37:39

for that company to lose 50 billion yeah

1:37:42

say from the starting point of 100

1:37:43

billion say you're saying cut in half

1:37:45

everyone would be cut in half so no no

1:37:48

necessarily like you can introduce you

1:37:51

can introduce protocol proposals that

1:37:53

are discrimin discriminatory that that

1:37:57

uh hit uh certain exchanges or certain

1:38:00

business models or or for example proof

1:38:03

of work to proof of stake it destroyed

1:38:05

the ethereum miners it was a very

1:38:08

targeted protocol change that basically

1:38:11

deprived you know what's it worth to

1:38:14

basically do ethereum mining well it

1:38:15

would have been worth a hundred billion

1:38:17

doar what's it worth today zero okay

1:38:20

where' the money go well it it from

1:38:23

people that would have had 100 billion

1:38:25

to people that now have the 100 billion

1:38:27

and so so

1:38:30

um but what saying no changes are you

1:38:32

saying no more changes at the protocol

1:38:35

level I'm saying first of all I would

1:38:39

say Bitcoin would be a lot better if the

1:38:42

protocol was stable it's like like do

1:38:46

you want to change the numbers one

1:38:47

through

1:38:48

nine and zero I mean like like like for

1:38:52

example how long has 0 through n been a

1:38:55

stable mathematical protocol it's not

1:38:57

the only one by the way you know there

1:38:59

are a lot of there's base 2 math there's

1:39:00

base 16 math there's there there's you

1:39:03

know base eight math there's a lot of

1:39:05

other ways to do it but the question is

1:39:08

if I have a machine that processes base

1:39:10

16 and I go to a politician and I get

1:39:14

them to pass a law making it illegal to

1:39:17

operate machines on base 10 and you have

1:39:19

to switch to base 16 and I'm the guy

1:39:21

that produces the machine you don't find

1:39:23

that to be a little bit corrupt I I

1:39:25

don't buy the analogy with government

1:39:28

because the point of Bitcoin is Rule

1:39:30

it's rules without

1:39:31

rulers so so social consensus is is

1:39:36

important you minor signaling is

1:39:38

important but but I I do want to just

1:39:41

stick on that question because I think

1:39:43

it's important it's are you basically

1:39:45

saying no more changes at the protocal

1:39:47

level or you what what I'm saying is

1:39:51

people shouldn't shouldn't uh deprive

1:39:54

other people of their economic rights

1:39:57

without due process and I would say that

1:40:00

if you have a government that routinely

1:40:02

seizes people's property and doesn't

1:40:03

respect economic property rights no

1:40:06

one's going to want to live in that

1:40:07

country so like I'm against socialism

1:40:10

I'm against communism I'm not in favor

1:40:13

authoritarianism if you told me that

1:40:15

here's a country where they just make up

1:40:18

new laws to steal from people in the

1:40:20

country I would say I don't want to live

1:40:22

there and so Bitcoin in theory is

1:40:25

supposed to be uh a Libertarian Network

1:40:29

where we respect property rights and I I

1:40:33

don't think you're undermining my

1:40:34

property rights if you write software to

1:40:36

make the nodes work better but I think

1:40:39

that if you actually change the

1:40:41

bandwidth of the network right if if you

1:40:44

inflate the bandwidth you've definitely

1:40:47

deprived everybody in the ecosystem of

1:40:49

certain rights you've undermined the

1:40:51

security if you inflate the money supp

1:40:54

you've deprived people their rights if

1:40:55

you change the hashing protocol you've

1:40:58

deprived people of their rights if you

1:41:01

actually destabilize the network by

1:41:03

introduc if you sacrifice the

1:41:07

performance and the stability of the

1:41:08

network to introduce altcoin crypto you

1:41:12

know shitcoin features into the network

1:41:15

right you've deprived people of their

1:41:17

rights if you hijack the Bitcoin mining

1:41:20

n Hardware in order to do other app

1:41:23

applications other than Shaw 256 hashing

1:41:27

to defend Bitcoin you've undermined the

1:41:29

security of the Bitcoin holders you have

1:41:33

destabilized the network you may have

1:41:36

introduced all sorts of uh attack

1:41:39

vectors for hackers and also also legal

1:41:43

risks regulatory risk and nation state

1:41:46

attack vectors and so there are lots of

1:41:48

protocol changes that

1:41:51

actually destabilize the the network or

1:41:54

they deprive some participants of the

1:41:57

network of their rights to the benefit

1:41:59

of others and my position is I just

1:42:02

don't think we should deprive people of

1:42:04

their rights and I don't think we should

1:42:07

use code in order to Advantage one uh

1:42:12

one special interest group to the

1:42:14

disadvantage of everybody else um so if

1:42:18

we had Quantum Computing and Sh 256

1:42:21

became at risk

1:42:23

um we could move to uh Quantum resistant

1:42:28

uh hashing algorithm that would protect

1:42:31

people's property rights so that would

1:42:33

be something would you be in favor or

1:42:36

not I think that when there's

1:42:37

broad-based

1:42:39

consensus that we need to do this to

1:42:42

defend Bitcoin then I think yeah we're

1:42:44

going to do it it's a no-brainer but def

1:42:46

I think defending Bitcoin can become

1:42:47

subjective um because address formats

1:42:50

can change to create more efficient

1:42:52

trans transactions that's that's better

1:42:54

for everybody who holds Bitcoin who

1:42:56

wants to send Bitcoin and spend Bitcoin

1:42:58

but not so good for the miners so in

1:43:00

that scenario you wouldn't be in favor

1:43:02

of that because that would be uh that

1:43:05

would that would be depriving miners of

1:43:08

their

1:43:09

look I'm I don't think it's appropriate

1:43:12

for me to give you a definitive yes or

1:43:14

no I support a very tricky yeah the

1:43:17

point I'm trying to make is is there are

1:43:22

some things that make sense that would

1:43:26

just generally broadly universally or

1:43:30

near universally be viewed as good for

1:43:32

the network I don't think they're

1:43:34

controversial yeah there are some things

1:43:37

that may or may not be good for the

1:43:39

network and they Merit a lot of

1:43:41

discussion and there are some things

1:43:44

that on the margin it's not clear

1:43:47

they're good for the network right and

1:43:50

and they probably don't Merit a lot of

1:43:53

discussion um let's just take vaccines

1:43:57

everybody talks about vaccines small pox

1:43:59

used to kill like 10 20% of the world

1:44:02

everybody had a member of their family

1:44:04

that died of smallpox right small poox

1:44:06

was a rampant epidemic you roll the

1:44:08

clock back 3 400 years your odds of

1:44:10

getting it are 20 30 40% and it kills a

1:44:13

third of the people that get it okay you

1:44:16

along comes people with the idea of

1:44:18

let's vaccinate against small poox does

1:44:20

it work we don't know took a hundred

1:44:22

years to work through it

1:44:23

eventually there was a consensus that

1:44:25

the small pox vaccine

1:44:27

works you know even having said that

1:44:30

hundreds of millions maybe billions of

1:44:32

people died to small pox in the history

1:44:33

of of humanity so today if you were to

1:44:37

ask people do you think you should

1:44:39

vaccinate your kids with for small pox

1:44:42

generally the consensus would be yeah I

1:44:45

mean given the fact that it killed like

1:44:47

onethird of the Native American Indians

1:44:49

that weren't vaccinated yeah yeah

1:44:51

probably um and on the other hand if I

1:44:56

posit you know a theoretical disease

1:44:58

that may pop up in 10 years that may in

1:45:01

fact kill us all and then I Rush a

1:45:03

vaccine into production in six months

1:45:06

and then if I go to the to the capital

1:45:09

and I get a politician to pass a law

1:45:12

requiring that everybody take the

1:45:13

vaccine including your kids and then I

1:45:15

put you in jail and deprive you of your

1:45:17

job if you don't take the vaccine right

1:45:20

it's the it's the same word vaccine

1:45:23

but one of them we developed very

1:45:25

carefully and

1:45:27

conservatively based upon consensus over

1:45:30

a long period of time and the other one

1:45:34

was a well-intentioned scientist that

1:45:36

just wanted to help you know that was TR

1:45:39

and was trying to think about the future

1:45:42

I think uh Nicholas TB puts this best in

1:45:45

you know most of his books he's like he

1:45:47

calls these people intellectual yet

1:45:49

idiots it's like I sit around and I IM

1:45:53

imagine 100 things that might go wrong

1:45:55

in the country in the next 100 years now

1:45:58

that I imagined it whether it's the

1:46:00

oceans rising or the ocean sinking or

1:46:02

the atmosphere boiling or we all die of

1:46:05

this or we all die of that or the kids

1:46:06

don't get enough of this or they don't

1:46:08

get enough of that once I figure out the

1:46:10

the existential threat then I go and I

1:46:13

create a law and then I then I Lobby for

1:46:15

the law and then I get the law passed

1:46:18

and then I get the law funded and then

1:46:20

the government forces first they buy the

1:46:22

thing they force you to take the thing

1:46:24

they jail you if you don't take the

1:46:26

thing they shut down your business

1:46:27

discriminate against you they hijack the

1:46:30

entire media system they inflate the

1:46:32

currency to pay for the

1:46:34

thing and then we go to the next thing

1:46:37

and and it's a meme the next thing

1:46:39

what's the next thing what's the next

1:46:41

thing what's the next thing I think that

1:46:43

the way that Empires fall is you

1:46:47

have uh big

1:46:50

government and and you know there's big

1:46:53

defense there's big Tech there's Big

1:46:55

Medicine there's big lobbyists there's

1:46:57

big government there's big Banks there's

1:47:00

big something it's people with big ideas

1:47:03

and they're all convinced that the

1:47:05

government needs to save you from

1:47:07

yourself and this is good for the

1:47:09

country I don't think it's that

1:47:11

different with Bitcoin it's like no I'm

1:47:14

not in favor of big protocol I don't

1:47:16

think I think the whole idea of big

1:47:19

protocol

1:47:20

is the free market can't solve the

1:47:23

problem and and at the end of the day

1:47:26

you have people that don't believe the

1:47:28

free market and individuals can solve

1:47:30

their own problem so the government's

1:47:32

got to step in and help and then it

1:47:34

becomes the government's got to do it

1:47:36

for you and then it becomes the

1:47:38

government's going to force you to do it

1:47:40

and that's the road toward serfdom and

1:47:42

authoritarianism and that's how Empires

1:47:44

fail I think in

1:47:47

Bitcoin right that you can take the

1:47:49

position

1:47:50

that is the protocol working or is the

1:47:53

protocol not working it looks to me like

1:47:55

the protocol is working it's the most

1:47:57

successful monetary protocol in the

1:47:59

history of the world it's gone from0 to$

1:48:01

1.4 trillion do in 15 years it looks

1:48:05

like it's on the on a path to go to 14

1:48:07

trillion and I don't know why it

1:48:09

wouldn't go to 140 trillion so I look at

1:48:11

it right now and it looks like the

1:48:14

protocol as it stands is capable of

1:48:17

going to the point where it constitutes

1:48:19

5 10 20% of the capital in the world

1:48:22

it's going to change and inject Freedom

1:48:26

sovereignty and sound money into every

1:48:29

country every company every

1:48:32

institution that's that's the path we're

1:48:34

on right now and so why would you want

1:48:37

to interrupt that right and and I think

1:48:40

that the danger

1:48:42

is you can figure out how to break it

1:48:46

right like if you just get out of the

1:48:47

way and let the free market function

1:48:50

there are 300 million companies

1:48:53

and there's thousands and thousands of

1:48:55

agencies and there's 8 billion people

1:48:58

that are going to adopt the protocol and

1:49:00

the world will be a much better place

1:49:02

and I happen to be The Optimist that

1:49:05

thinks less is more Let the protocol

1:49:08

work and and in the words of you know

1:49:13

hyp hypocrisies Do no harm right I I

1:49:16

think when you have a healthy

1:49:18

child if I come into your house I say I

1:49:21

know you got healthy children but have

1:49:23

this theory that maybe in you know in

1:49:25

their 60s they're going to die of

1:49:27

something and so I want to try my

1:49:29

experimental drug on them now yeah [ __ ]

1:49:32

off you tell me get out of your house

1:49:34

like I you know like at the end of the

1:49:36

day but but how much worse is it if I

1:49:38

say well I have a theory that the entire

1:49:40

world's going to end in 40 years and I

1:49:42

want to try my experimental drug now

1:49:45

just to inoculate us against it and and

1:49:48

I think I think that that's not the case

1:49:51

I'm quite The Optimist I think that

1:49:54

Bitcoin is going to succeed it is

1:49:56

succeeding it's succeeding as fast as it

1:49:59

could reasonably

1:50:00

succeed and we ought to try to avoid the

1:50:04

tendency to F with it right remember the

1:50:06

meme I just heard about Bitcoin I'm here

1:50:08

to fix it well so if I had come into

1:50:12

Bitcoin in the first four years I said I

1:50:14

I heard about it but here's here's my

1:50:15

list of bip proposals to fix it how

1:50:18

would people react yeah yeah it's like

1:50:21

[ __ ] off right and and so the point

1:50:24

really is just because you've been

1:50:25

around for 10 years or five years or 15

1:50:28

years doesn't mean that uh you know a

1:50:32

diversified aggressive slate of bit

1:50:34

proposals that might make it better are

1:50:37

are any more valid you ought to consider

1:50:40

all of the people you affect so that

1:50:42

needs a strong culture of conservatism

1:50:45

within the developers CU look Jeremy

1:50:48

ruin has struggled to get CTV through

1:50:52

but there is an increasing number of or

1:50:55

increasing number of voices uh more you

1:50:58

know people you may consider a little

1:51:00

bit more liberal with proposals for

1:51:03

Bitcoin um and as we lose an Old Guard

1:51:07

as we lose you know people like Peter

1:51:08

will less involved I I think there is a

1:51:11

risk of losing that culture and so but I

1:51:15

think it can only be solved by

1:51:18

culture I I listen to all the Bitcoin

1:51:21

podcasts I listen to all like a ton of

1:51:23

L's podcasts I listen to a ton of your

1:51:25

podcasts I listened to you know a lot of

1:51:28

proposals and there's a lot of

1:51:30

discussion about about um the code and

1:51:36

and how a certain upgrade would improve

1:51:38

would add a feature or add a capability

1:51:40

or add some scalability and there's a

1:51:43

there's a big emphasis on well we need a

1:51:46

billion people to be able to self-

1:51:48

custody their own Bitcoin and and a

1:51:51

billion people need to be bble to do a

1:51:53

lot of transaction on the Bas ler or

1:51:55

else Bitcoin has failed like I won't say

1:51:56

everybody believes that I'll say there's

1:51:58

a lot of discussion for people that want

1:52:00

to add upgrades to the network and when

1:52:02

they're focused they're focused upon the

1:52:04

sovereign

1:52:05

individual and they're focused on the

1:52:08

code what I don't hear is a lot of

1:52:12

discussion about the second order

1:52:14

effects of what happens when the

1:52:17

unintended consequences it's like it's

1:52:19

normally like arm waved away as yeah

1:52:22

there may some but but we we need this

1:52:25

feature and of course we could see the

1:52:27

unintended consequences and sometimes

1:52:30

you don't always see them all but

1:52:32

there's a lot of them and then I don't

1:52:34

see a lot of discussion of the impact of

1:52:37

Any Given change to the Bitcoin

1:52:39

ecosystem what is the impact of this on

1:52:42

coinbase on cash app what is the impact

1:52:45

on Fidelity what is the impact on all

1:52:47

the Bitcoin miners what is the impact on

1:52:51

uh all the Bitcoin ETF issuers what is

1:52:54

the impact on all the Bitcoin holders

1:52:57

and and the various types and then what

1:53:00

and then I don't see a lot of discussion

1:53:03

about the impact on the free market how

1:53:05

will this change impact the view of

1:53:09

everybody that has not yet joined the

1:53:11

network how will it how will it impact

1:53:13

the view of skeptical politicians how

1:53:16

will it impact the view of Apple Google

1:53:18

Facebook Amazon Microsoft how will it

1:53:21

impact the Chinese View how will it

1:53:22

impact the Russian View and then I don't

1:53:26

hear a lot of discussion about are we

1:53:29

prepared to live with this for the next

1:53:31

thousand

1:53:32

years right and what might happen over

1:53:35

the course of a hundred years or 200

1:53:38

years right so so these are second order

1:53:40

third order fourth order fifth order

1:53:42

effects and of course the answer would

1:53:44

be well we don't have time to consider

1:53:47

all those things we have one hour or two

1:53:49

hours there's no way we have the

1:53:50

bandwidth to consider it and my answer

1:53:53

is exactly we don't have the bandwidth

1:53:56

to considerate you know it's you want to

1:53:58

introduce uh a new protocol change that

1:54:01

may have catastrophic or structural uh

1:54:07

inflationary impact or it may have

1:54:09

regulatory impact it it may deprive

1:54:12

someone of their property rights it it

1:54:15

it may create an a moral hazard an

1:54:17

ethical Hazard an economic Hazard an

1:54:19

engineering Hazard all of these things

1:54:22

need to be considered and when you get

1:54:25

hurry when you know what happens when

1:54:27

you get in a hurry in a war whether it's

1:54:29

a a war on covid or whether it's an

1:54:32

actual War what happens is a central

1:54:35

planner jams this down the society we

1:54:38

implement the draft you go to war you

1:54:40

kill people we Implement medical policy

1:54:42

we Implement lockdown policy we

1:54:44

Implement centrally planned banking

1:54:46

policy there wasn't time we had to shut

1:54:48

down that bank we had to shut we had to

1:54:50

shut down 40 million businesses why we

1:54:52

had to do it for the good of the people

1:54:55

and and so I think that there's a lot of

1:54:59

bad decisions that are made when you get

1:55:01

in a hurry and fundamentally I would say

1:55:05

I'm not in favor of central planning and

1:55:07

I think that most of the Bitcoin

1:55:09

Community doesn't agree with Central

1:55:10

planning so why would you want a dozen

1:55:13

developers to centrally plan the

1:55:15

protocol and then to make changes

1:55:18

because they think it's academically

1:55:20

theoretically good for everybody you get

1:55:24

to make the decisions for the next

1:55:26

thousand years for 10 billion people

1:55:28

just because you have a good idea and my

1:55:30

answer is no I don't I don't think that

1:55:34

it's wise for us to encourage people to

1:55:38

play God I think you get to play God

1:55:40

once Satoshi played God I think the rest

1:55:44

of us ought to have the humility to say

1:55:46

we're not Satoshi by the odds were

1:55:49

10,000 to one against Satoshi Satoshi

1:55:52

the dice he won we're good but now the

1:55:57

way that Empires fall is the person that

1:56:00

in that inherited the United States that

1:56:03

inherits Bitcoin that inherits the

1:56:06

corporation they think they're just as

1:56:08

smart and they're just going to go ahead

1:56:11

and roll the dice just as hard and

1:56:13

they're going to play God and I think

1:56:17

the the the the history books show the

1:56:20

result the result is they always fail

1:56:22

the empires always Crash and Burn and

1:56:25

the things that last are these protocols

1:56:29

that we that we have respect for like

1:56:33

Arabic numerals like I like I I

1:56:37

understand protocols evolv Peter like

1:56:38

the English language the English

1:56:40

language has evolved over a thousand

1:56:42

years you know and if you go back to the

1:56:45

King James Bible you know you can see

1:56:48

you can understand it but it's obviously

1:56:50

used differently today

1:56:53

I'm okay with the protocol evolving over

1:56:55

400 years carefully conservatively

1:56:59

deliberately because everybody says it's

1:57:01

in our Collective economic and political

1:57:04

interest to do this I'm just skeptical

1:57:08

of people that have uh good ideas that

1:57:11

are in a hurry that would like to change

1:57:14

the entire network uh because it would

1:57:17

be maybe it would make their project

1:57:19

easier yeah and I'm I don't want to stay

1:57:22

on this track for too long and conscious

1:57:23

we could go around and around in circles

1:57:25

I'm not sure that 12 developers can make

1:57:27

it a change but but but I think the

1:57:30

trend here is something I 100% agree

1:57:32

with which is a strong culture of

1:57:34

conservative conservatism with

1:57:36

development I always tend to lean

1:57:39

towards what an Adam backck thinks you

1:57:42

know what Mt carello thinks uh what do

1:57:45

John cllo thinks with regards to things

1:57:47

and there tends to be this culture of

1:57:49

conservatism and I think we''ve kind of

1:57:51

had that really I mean we've had I

1:57:53

joined dur in one upgrade and there's

1:57:55

been one big upgrade since and right now

1:57:57

I haven't seen anything on the table

1:57:59

that I I really like so I I think we're

1:58:02

agreement and and I agree with you on

1:58:04

those names too I mean I I think that

1:58:06

there are voices of reason and voices of

1:58:10

maturity and and voices of uh

1:58:13

conservatism and

1:58:15

experience and and the the other the

1:58:18

other point to be made

1:58:20

is the protocol doesn't have to do

1:58:23

everything that you have to leave

1:58:26

opportunity for functioning and

1:58:28

scalability to the layer two to the

1:58:30

layer 3es and oftentimes the most uh the

1:58:34

most aggressive protocols they

1:58:37

dismiss the role of

1:58:40

corporations in this entire equation

1:58:43

like that the idea of be your own bank

1:58:45

it's like Well everybody's just got to

1:58:46

be their own bank but I think at some

1:58:49

point we're sacrificing the interest of

1:58:52

money in pursuit of the ideal of

1:58:56

sovereignty of the individual and it's

1:58:59

not clear to me that you get both right

1:59:02

and certainly you don't get both at the

1:59:04

same time like maybe sound money sound

1:59:08

money introduced in a Sly roundabout way

1:59:10

would be a monetary asset adopted by

1:59:14

every Bank every government every

1:59:16

corporation it backs every currency it

1:59:18

backs every piece of debt it backs every

1:59:21

equity and everybody in the world

1:59:23

universally agrees on it and we still

1:59:26

have corporations and and I think if you

1:59:28

consider it it's pretty obvious you're

1:59:30

going to want corporations to generate

1:59:32

electricity run your hospitals do your

1:59:35

Dentistry create complicated equipment

1:59:37

Etc so I'm I I think that if you allow

1:59:41

for corporations to exist then some uh

1:59:45

some of the you know existential threats

1:59:49

that we imagine that Force us to take

1:59:51

risk with the and Rush protocol changes

1:59:54

those kind of dissipate and then you say

1:59:57

well maybe what we'll do is will be a

2:00:00

Network that has a 100 million or 50

2:00:03

million Sovereign individuals and those

2:00:06

individuals will include JP Morgan and

2:00:08

Apple computer and the Bank of China and

2:00:12

the bank you know the bank of England

2:00:14

right mega mega Corps Mega Banks Mega

2:00:17

countries and maybe we're safer if they

2:00:20

all join the network

2:00:22

as opposed to construct a network to

2:00:24

keep them out yeah I think this is kind

2:00:26

of the conclusion I've come to because

2:00:28

for about a year now I've been asking

2:00:29

the question is that can you be self-

2:00:31

Sovereign on the lightning Network and

2:00:33

I've got a range of answers not

2:00:34

particularly good or convincing uh but

2:00:37

an Economy based on sound money is

2:00:39

certainly leaps forward and look it it

2:00:42

might just be a case that if you are

2:00:44

sovereign on the base chain that that is

2:00:45

a privileged that privileged position

2:00:47

you get not every not everyone could

2:00:49

have that Jeff next door can't have that

2:00:50

on that on that subject I think it's

2:00:52

important people some say well that's

2:00:53

just like the gold standard and gold

2:00:55

centralizes but it really isn't if you

2:00:58

had a 100,000 Banks and a 100,000

2:01:02

corporations and they all had billions

2:01:05

of dollarss of Bitcoin and they settled

2:01:07

with each other on the Bitcoin Network

2:01:09

and there was Bank of China Bank of

2:01:11

Russia Bank of England bank of

2:01:12

Switzerland Bank of America Bank of

2:01:14

Brazil were among them and Alibaba and

2:01:17

apple were among them I think that your

2:01:20

rights as bitcoiner and your freedom and

2:01:23

your sovereignty would be much better

2:01:26

defended by all of those powerful actors

2:01:30

that also adopted the Bitcoin standard

2:01:32

because what you're doing is you're

2:01:33

replacing 40,000 banks that are all

2:01:36

trading through one node right the

2:01:39

Central Bank of America right you've got

2:01:42

one One bank that controls the monetary

2:01:45

policy and the value of the reserve

2:01:47

asset of every corporation and every

2:01:50

Bank in the western world you're

2:01:52

replacing that with the Bitcoin base

2:01:54

layer and Bitcoin the asset and and

2:01:58

that's a that's a vision we can achieve

2:02:00

in the next 20 years or 30 years we can

2:02:03

achieve that in our lifetime and we

2:02:06

don't have to change the protocol to

2:02:09

achieve that vision of every powerful

2:02:11

entity on Earth universally settling

2:02:15

with each other and trusting each other

2:02:17

using Bitcoin the asset and Bitcoin the

2:02:20

base layer so I just I I don't see the

2:02:23

immediate existential threat that

2:02:25

necessitates that we have to take risk I

2:02:28

do think that if we put our focus on

2:02:32

getting every powerful entity on Earth

2:02:35

to adopt Bitcoin that isn't we convert

2:02:38

all of our potential enemies into

2:02:40

friends and we accelerate adoption to

2:02:43

the 8 billion people much much faster

2:02:46

than than making protocol adjustments

2:02:49

okay so this makes the next question

2:02:51

even more interesting because I I think

2:02:53

I'm aligned with you but but what about

2:02:56

developer funding because that has come

2:02:58

up uh with various accusations but

2:03:02

what's your position on developer

2:03:03

funding and and do we have enough

2:03:05

developers I think uh we should fund uh

2:03:09

developers in a surgical fashion knowing

2:03:13

what their priorities and principles are

2:03:16

so like when I when I listen to the

2:03:18

principles of the Bitcoin core devs like

2:03:20

Gloria yeah they're pretty good

2:03:22

principles yeah right they're they're

2:03:24

very grounded very thoughtful

2:03:26

considerate you and it's very when I

2:03:28

listen to the principles of Steve Lee

2:03:30

Steve Lee they're very good principles

2:03:32

you know it's Granite make the granite

2:03:34

good make sure it doesn't crack and then

2:03:37

and then trying to think about how we

2:03:38

stay decentralized and stay Rock Solid

2:03:41

you know and I I think about uh you know

2:03:45

principles you know from from carvalo I

2:03:48

think pretty good principles and then I

2:03:50

look at every project and I think some

2:03:53

projects you know some projects strike

2:03:55

me as being as being

2:03:58

improvements and then I look at others

2:04:00

and I think someone says well we just

2:04:02

really want to duplicate all the

2:04:04

functionality of ethereum on the Bitcoin

2:04:05

Network and you know and I'm like well I

2:04:09

don't know if I if that's such a good

2:04:11

idea I don't May at some point Bitcoin

2:04:14

is succeeding because it doesn't do

2:04:17

certain things right sometimes the the

2:04:20

absence of a feature is the feature and

2:04:23

and uh if we did everything we'd be less

2:04:26

successful and so humility you know

2:04:29

suggest that you got to know your

2:04:31

limitations so um here's what I don't

2:04:33

agree with I don't agree with unlimited

2:04:37

un governed funding for anyone that

2:04:40

wants to change or Lobby for a change to

2:04:43

the Bitcoin

2:04:44

protocol like I I I think that when you

2:04:47

have unlimited ungoverned funding for

2:04:50

people that wish to modify the protocol

2:04:53

it's like you're trying to give yourself

2:04:55

a disease you know and and and what

2:04:58

happens when you when you ere eat over

2:05:00

drink you give yourself metabolic

2:05:01

disease so I don't want to give

2:05:03

ourselves cancer and I don't want to

2:05:04

give us a heart attack and when and and

2:05:08

when you here's what happens when you

2:05:09

have big charity when you have a when

2:05:12

you have a mega billionaire right you

2:05:14

could point the gates you could point to

2:05:16

Zoros you could point to whatever and

2:05:18

they start by trying to do good for the

2:05:20

world so they're like I want to to help

2:05:23

you know save the world from global

2:05:24

warming I want to save the inner cities

2:05:27

I want to do this that billion dollars

2:05:29

trickles down three levels and by the

2:05:32

time it gets to the fifth level down

2:05:35

financing someone that wants to define

2:05:38

the police you know it's like gay rights

2:05:41

ends up financing you know men in the

2:05:44

women's locker room beating the [ __ ] out

2:05:45

of the girls it's like well did it start

2:05:48

that way there's no one that financed it

2:05:50

thinking that but what happened

2:05:53

is if I made a billion doll gift right

2:05:56

now and I said here my billion dollar

2:05:58

gift is to make Bitcoin better well that

2:06:01

money might find its way into a bunch of

2:06:04

crypto [ __ ] coiner hands and they might

2:06:06

decide to port ethereum to bitcoin and

2:06:08

create proof of stake and then they

2:06:10

might go and start spending hundreds of

2:06:11

millions of dollars to lobby for

2:06:13

something which is just whatever they

2:06:15

think it's better so I think that um I

2:06:20

think it's a bad idea uh big charity by

2:06:24

I just think big charity is a bad idea

2:06:26

like I I don't like big government Big

2:06:28

Medicine big defense big lobbying big

2:06:32

protocol big charity I what are they all

2:06:35

they're all centrally centralizing

2:06:39

organizations with infinite power run by

2:06:41

a few people at the top and the person

2:06:44

at the top it's like big Tech I just

2:06:47

want to help the world is in panic and

2:06:49

so I'm going to censor everybody that

2:06:50

uses the following words and you get

2:06:52

ripped off of one of the networks they

2:06:55

don't think that they're doing the wrong

2:06:57

thing they think they're helping but but

2:07:00

big anything big

2:07:02

centralization results in in um a

2:07:06

distortion by the time it trickles down

2:07:09

and uh and so that's why I'm not in

2:07:12

favor of big development I don't want a

2:07:14

developer industrial complex right and

2:07:17

and uh you know the irony is you know PE

2:07:21

people worry about like uh Wall Street

2:07:24

taking over Bitcoin right the criticism

2:07:27

I've got on on this topic is pointing

2:07:30

out to certain Wall Street firms that

2:07:32

maybe it's not a good look to provide

2:07:34

unlimited ungoverned funding you know to

2:07:37

development efforts that might

2:07:39

destabilize the network right for

2:07:42

example would would you want the people

2:07:46

that support the other crypto networks

2:07:48

the proof of stake networks that are

2:07:49

centralized would you want them to be

2:07:52

funding Bitcoin development initiatives

2:07:55

to make Bitcoin better

2:07:57

no okay so do you want people that don't

2:07:59

distinguish the difference between those

2:08:01

two to fund all the Bitcoin core devs

2:08:04

like it my point really is I'm in favor

2:08:07

of thoughtful principled development but

2:08:13

in terms of dollars I think I think you

2:08:17

can go 10,000 times as fast on the layer

2:08:20

three and above because you're just

2:08:22

risking your company and your

2:08:23

shareholders and you should go fast I

2:08:25

think on the layer two I think you

2:08:27

should go 100x slower on on lightning or

2:08:31

any other layer too and you need to you

2:08:33

need to bow to the community consensus

2:08:35

even like with the orange protocol that

2:08:38

micro strategy looked at we got some we

2:08:40

got people concerned about the

2:08:41

efficiency the first thing I did is I

2:08:43

said to my devs go talk to all those

2:08:44

people figure out what the concerns are

2:08:46

don't do anything that makes it worse

2:08:47

right I think you have to be politically

2:08:50

sensitive and you have to you have to

2:08:52

seek consensus at Layer Two and you got

2:08:54

to go

2:08:55

slower but at layer one I think you

2:08:58

should be

2:08:59

10,000 times slower it's

2:09:03

like if I said to you if I said to you

2:09:06

uh Peter I'm showing up in the UK I'm

2:09:09

going to launch a business uh do you

2:09:11

want to oversee everything I'm going to

2:09:13

do and and tell me whether I can do it

2:09:15

and You' be like I don't have time do

2:09:17

whatever if it works it works if it

2:09:19

doesn't work fails if I said Peter I

2:09:21

just got put in charge of the UK I'm the

2:09:24

dictator and I'm going to put in place a

2:09:26

law and it will last for a thousand

2:09:28

years and I've got 20 good

2:09:32

ideas you know do you want to talk about

2:09:35

it an hour you want to talk about it a

2:09:37

day a week or or actually is there

2:09:39

something reflexive about that where

2:09:41

your skin crawls and you go like why

2:09:44

should here's the difference between

2:09:46

Bitcoin protocol you you could say you

2:09:48

could say in a way I'm more conservative

2:09:50

about the Bitcoin protocol called then I

2:09:51

am about the government of the United

2:09:54

States or the UK or the EU at least you

2:09:57

can leave the United States you can

2:10:00

leave you know if the government gets

2:10:03

you know how many laws there are there

2:10:04

like what 10 million pages of laws on

2:10:06

the books right like they didn't used to

2:10:08

be ask George Washington what he thought

2:10:11

about that right so most governments

2:10:14

they just Stack Up 100,000 Pages million

2:10:17

Pages 10 million pages of

2:10:19

regulations and they're all infl

2:10:21

inationary Regulatory and then the heart

2:10:23

stops and the society collapses or it

2:10:25

gets cancer and that's the end of the

2:10:28

civilization but here's my

2:10:30

issue people die you know if the mayor

2:10:34

or the president has crazy regs they get

2:10:37

they eventually get voted out of office

2:10:39

or they die laws last until they get

2:10:42

repealed but that but then again this

2:10:44

the nation May Fail the Bitcoin protocol

2:10:47

might last it should Outlast any

2:10:49

politician and it should outl any

2:10:52

government so I think when you're

2:10:54

inserting stuff in the protocol whether

2:10:56

it's segwit whether it's tap rot whether

2:10:59

it's the next good idea you have to be

2:11:02

saying well how do I feel about this 150

2:11:05

years from now I'll give you one simple

2:11:07

example um the mayor of New York City

2:11:11

gets to pass a zoning ordinance in the

2:11:12

year 1776 saying you can't build

2:11:15

buildings more than five stories because

2:11:17

it's not safe then okay then along com

2:11:20

steel and five stories zoning ordinance

2:11:21

don't make any sense so we repeal that

2:11:24

zoning ordinance but then what if every

2:11:26

mayor of New York got to put another

2:11:28

Covenant another another lean another

2:11:31

zoning ordinance on the land it's like

2:11:34

you can't bake bread you can't have

2:11:35

fires you can't have a nuclear reactor

2:11:38

you can't have explosives you can't use

2:11:40

steel you can't use electricity you

2:11:43

can't build more than 50 feet up in the

2:11:45

air every one of them had a reason and

2:11:49

look at New York City today and then

2:11:51

imagine if any of them still stuck

2:11:53

around and then also it's like do I

2:11:56

really want someone in the year

2:11:58

2024 to be able to put a recursive

2:12:01

Perpetual Covenant on whatever property

2:12:05

they owned on the Bitcoin Network

2:12:06

that'll last in the year

2:12:09

2400 right aren't you just impairing the

2:12:12

asset forever now I'm not saying every

2:12:14

Covenant proposal allows you to do it

2:12:16

I'm not even criticizing any particular

2:12:18

proposal I'm just pointing out that

2:12:21

there's a certain danger to being able

2:12:23

to write laws on the network that are

2:12:26

Perpetual that will go on for a thousand

2:12:29

years and mayor of the mayor of New

2:12:33

York's not thinking about that and

2:12:35

politicians aren't thinking about that

2:12:36

and the people that are lobbying in

2:12:38

favor of it aren't thinking about that

2:12:41

but I think that today and and I

2:12:45

wouldn't I wouldn't take such a

2:12:47

conservative view in the year 2012 I

2:12:50

would say in the year 2012

2:12:51

the risks on the on the margin are

2:12:53

greater Bitcoin will fail because maybe

2:12:56

of some lack of functionality or

2:12:57

performance or you're going too slow to

2:12:59

fix the bugs you know and so I think

2:13:02

that you have to look at the the risk

2:13:03

reward profile every year from

2:13:07

208 2009 all the way to

2:13:10

2024 I would just say it's logical a

2:13:14

logical principle is the bigger the

2:13:17

network gets the more likely it is to be

2:13:20

successful the more

2:13:22

conservative we should be about protocol

2:13:25

changes right and the more careful and

2:13:28

considerate we should be about the

2:13:31

second third fourth fifth and sixth

2:13:32

order

2:13:33

effects right and we can't afford to

2:13:37

make decisions in the year 2024 or

2:13:41

2025 the way we made them in

2:13:44

2016 right we we we need to we need to

2:13:47

be careful there's there's a lot to lose

2:13:50

and so

2:13:51

that's the way I think of it all right

2:13:53

conscious of time one thing we haven't

2:13:55

touched on that we talked about

2:13:56

yesterday and we can do the short

2:13:58

version genla but I think it's a it's a

2:14:02

really interesting time um the game

2:14:05

theory of Bitcoin is playing out in the

2:14:08

political landscape of the US ahead of

2:14:11

election um and it's yeah hav't been

2:14:15

around a few years in Bitcoin myself now

2:14:17

to see this is It's kind of insane

2:14:21

but what's your read of

2:14:24

all I think that um in

2:14:29

2020 Bitcoin was unstable and it was

2:14:32

unclear whether the Republican

2:14:34

Administration was in favor of it or

2:14:36

against and then maybe they leaned

2:14:37

against it and I think that um the

2:14:41

Democratic Administration came in and

2:14:42

gendler came in and actually um the

2:14:45

administration flipped from Bitcoin is a

2:14:49

digital currency competing with the

2:14:50

dollar we should ban it to bitcoin is a

2:14:53

digital

2:14:54

commodity speculative asset doesn't

2:14:56

compete with the dollar we don't have to

2:14:58

ban it so the first contribution of

2:15:02

gendler was to actually legitimize it as

2:15:05

a digital asset and a digital commodity

2:15:08

I think that gendler you know respects

2:15:10

Satoshi believes in the vision of

2:15:12

Bitcoin always did we know that you know

2:15:15

I've listened to all of his lectures in

2:15:17

MIT so he came in

2:15:19

as a as someone appreciating Bitcoin is

2:15:22

a digital commodity what happened next

2:15:25

is a very con you know guinsler then

2:15:28

established uh the principle the proof

2:15:30

of work is superior to proof of stake

2:15:33

and so you got so I'm going to lay out

2:15:35

the positives the the contribution skin

2:15:37

me he you know he legitimized Bitcoin as

2:15:40

a digital commodity he showed the world

2:15:43

how you create something

2:15:44

decentralized he he pointed out Satoshi

2:15:47

you know and the iMac conception is the

2:15:49

right principle he pointed out that

2:15:52

staking is probably an investment

2:15:53

contract and he explained why going to

2:15:56

proof of stake is not a good idea then

2:15:59

he was very hyper conservative in in uh

2:16:04

normalizing Bitcoin in the

2:16:06

ecosystem holding back for a while

2:16:09

eventually right we have to go to all

2:16:11

the way to 2024 January before we get

2:16:14

the approval of the spot ETFs for

2:16:17

Bitcoin but the single most important

2:16:19

thing that happened in this Epic was the

2:16:21

approval of the spot Bitcoin ETFs that

2:16:23

that that basically was crossing of the

2:16:26

chasm which said that Bitcoin is not a

2:16:29

multi hundred billion doll asset class

2:16:31

bit Bitcoin is a 10 to1 trillion dollar

2:16:33

asset class so that was a 10x to 100x

2:16:37

so so we got that from this this regime

2:16:41

but I think in the meantime uh the has

2:16:46

basically been very very obstructionist

2:16:50

uh you know and at war with the entire

2:16:52

crypto industry and we know that M right

2:16:54

uh you know suing all the crypto

2:16:56

exchanges suing a lot of the

2:16:58

entrepreneurs and and uh what we didn't

2:17:02

get right we we got um a very passive

2:17:07

what is the word like a a minimalist

2:17:10

embracement of Bitcoin embracing of

2:17:13

Bitcoin by CEO very reluctant under

2:17:16

under protest yeah embracing and then a

2:17:21

couple things that happened that were

2:17:23

triggers uh the SEC denied and has been

2:17:27

stalling uh the approval of options

2:17:30

trading on the spot ETFs it's slowing

2:17:32

them down so just you know those are

2:17:35

coming a year or two years later then

2:17:37

they probably ought to come if you agree

2:17:38

that Bitcoin is a spot asset why not

2:17:40

approve the

2:17:41

options uh for the same spot ETFs and

2:17:45

then the SEC uh denied in in kind

2:17:49

creates so you couldn't just trade your

2:17:51

Bitcoin for the ETF and so that both of

2:17:55

those make the spot ETFs inferior and

2:17:59

then uh the SEC put forth Sab 121 that

2:18:04

made it impossible for a bank to cut

2:18:07

Bitcoin so we got the minimal uh

2:18:10

acceptance of of Bitcoin legit it's like

2:18:13

the minimal thing I can do to legitimize

2:18:15

it but these other logical things let

2:18:18

let the bank's custody let people hedge

2:18:21

it and and then um you know let them

2:18:24

trade Bitcoin for Securities these

2:18:26

things which would normally be C they're

2:18:28

normal and customary in any other asset

2:18:30

they were denied and so we're going at a

2:18:33

very slow rate so so they're letting you

2:18:35

in the race but they're blindfold you

2:18:37

and cutting a leg off well I think that

2:18:39

that created a lot of friction between

2:18:42

the Bitcoin community and the SEC right

2:18:44

then you have the friction between the

2:18:46

crypto community and the SEC which I

2:18:48

don't have to go over it right there's

2:18:50

100 stor rais men and that was

2:18:53

exacerbated by the fact that over the

2:18:55

course of four years the SEC never put

2:18:58

forth uh a digital assets framework

2:19:01

right so what you've got an entire

2:19:02

industry and for it to live it needs you

2:19:05

you need a way to establish a digital

2:19:08

commodity versus a digital security

2:19:09

versus a digital exchange versus a

2:19:11

digital currency and the position of of

2:19:14

the regulator in this case was I'm not

2:19:16

giving you any framework and the

2:19:18

implication is you guys all have to just

2:19:20

roll over and die so so so how do you

2:19:24

tell 400 million people that support an

2:19:26

industry and the entire industry that

2:19:30

they all just have to cease operating

2:19:33

right and so so that's a very a very

2:19:37

obstructionist view like a

2:19:39

non-constructive view toward toward the

2:19:42

crypto industry and then I think the

2:19:44

third the third thing that happened here

2:19:47

is is um

2:19:51

we had a lot of banks you know there are

2:19:53

Rumors in the market that there were

2:19:54

banks that spent a hundred million do or

2:19:56

more to get ready to do Bitcoin

2:19:58

custody okay so you have a bunch of

2:20:01

banks spending money they're ready to do

2:20:03

it and then Sab 121 is just capriciously

2:20:07

denying them of the ability to do it

2:20:09

without

2:20:11

explanation okay and I and that brought

2:20:14

the the sa 129 debate because sorry Saab

2:20:18

121 means Wall Street the banking law

2:20:22

the bankers the crypto Lobby and the

2:20:25

Bitcoin Lobby all four of those

2:20:27

constituencies all all side together on

2:20:30

the same issue so that being the case

2:20:33

the Sab 121 repeal comes up and then the

2:20:38

position of the administration is we're

2:20:39

proactively going to veto it and now you

2:20:43

basically have the administration

2:20:45

against Wall Street and crypto and

2:20:48

Bitcoin and the banks right a and you

2:20:52

have the welling up of frustration over

2:20:54

four years which which reached a fever

2:20:56

pitch and the combination of that plus

2:21:00

the eth ETF coming up for approval with

2:21:03

the expectation that it's going to be

2:21:05

denied punctuated by the lawsuits

2:21:08

against Unis Swap and metamask which

2:21:10

kind of are what caus people to conclude

2:21:12

it would be denied I mean we all thought

2:21:14

it' be denied two weeks ago I thought it

2:21:16

would be denied the entire consensus

2:21:18

even the etherians thought it' be denied

2:21:20

so that brings everything to a

2:21:23

head the bill goes to the house it

2:21:27

passes then it then it moves into the

2:21:29

Senate and it passes that's a shocker

2:21:33

and then of course Godzilla walks into

2:21:36

the room and and the the the trump card

2:21:41

right is

2:21:42

is Trump and Trump becomes crypto

2:21:46

engaged and Trump comes down in favor of

2:21:49

crypto if you believe crypto you better

2:21:51

vote for me and then the next thing you

2:21:54

see is the polls flip and the Republican

2:21:57

front runner is ahead of the incumbent

2:22:00

right and when Trump flips Biden in the

2:22:03

polls now you see the entire Democratic

2:22:06

party flip and so I think in the past

2:22:09

few days this literally happened over

2:22:11

the weekend I think this weekend I think

2:22:13

you saw you saw the political wind

2:22:16

change direction this became a political

2:22:19

issue and the the strategists think wait

2:22:22

a minute 80 million people with a

2:22:24

coinbase account or 80 million Americans

2:22:26

with crypto and a big crypto Lobby and

2:22:29

we're going to be on the wrong side of

2:22:31

this there is no one that's going to

2:22:33

vote for you because you're anti- crypto

2:22:35

or anti- Bitcoin no there are no votes

2:22:38

there is an army of people that'll vote

2:22:40

against

2:22:41

you so I think the White House change

2:22:44

policies the Democratic party change

2:22:46

policies the signal of that was uh Chuck

2:22:49

Schumer and the s

2:22:51

voting in favor of the repeal of sa

2:22:54

121 and you can see why he might

2:22:57

basically Wall Streets adopted crypto

2:23:00

Wall Streets adopted Bitcoin they want

2:23:02

to custody it they want to securitize it

2:23:05

and the crypto industry is just fed up I

2:23:08

mean they've had enough and you know

2:23:11

it's like I think sunzo says you've got

2:23:13

your enemy cornered leave them with an

2:23:16

escape okay I I think that uh that the

2:23:19

regulator overplayed their hand in this

2:23:22

regard or a regulator overplayed their

2:23:24

hand if you basically got an industry

2:23:27

that represents 80 million Americans and

2:23:30

their only option is to fight you or die

2:23:33

it's a battle to the death right it's

2:23:36

that you know that's a very difficult

2:23:38

fight you you know you polarized it so I

2:23:41

think that the dam burst this weekend

2:23:45

Monday

2:23:46

morning uh the policy of the

2:23:48

administration flipped and now I think

2:23:51

they realize that they're best to

2:23:53

accommodate you know give Wall Street

2:23:55

What It Wants give the banks what they

2:23:57

want um I I think there's a lot of

2:24:01

details yet to be figured out like what

2:24:03

will happen next but um all of the

2:24:06

signals in the market suggest that the

2:24:10

Republicans will be violently Pro crypto

2:24:14

Pro Bitcoin and the existing

2:24:16

Administration the Democrats will uh

2:24:19

will move to a accomodate reluctantly

2:24:22

Pro they will move to accommodate and

2:24:25

and stop taking a such a an obstinate

2:24:30

position wild though isn't it and it is

2:24:33

it is wild it it upends it upend

2:24:36

everybody's model yeah it's like when

2:24:38

things get political you know and and

2:24:41

and uh this gets very political then you

2:24:44

just have to rethink all of your

2:24:47

premises and you know so here what I

2:24:50

think I think I think two weeks before

2:24:53

the world looked like Bitcoin was going

2:24:55

to be the only asset securitized and and

2:24:58

offered as a spot ETF by the Wall Street

2:25:02

establishment and it was going to spread

2:25:04

as the one legitimate crypto

2:25:06

asset I think right now uh the best

2:25:10

expectation is the crypto asset class

2:25:12

will be legitimized supported by both

2:25:15

parties there's an industry crypto is an

2:25:18

asset class there's an entire

2:25:20

range of use cases 247 digital trading

2:25:25

digital art you know nfts tokens you

2:25:29

know decentralize this functionality

2:25:32

defy there's a lot of things that will

2:25:34

will be considered and in a more open

2:25:38

light and um Bitcoin will be the leader

2:25:42

of the crypto asset class and and if you

2:25:45

look at it and say well is this good for

2:25:47

Bitcoin or not yeah I think it's good

2:25:49

for Bitcoin I think in fact it may be

2:25:51

better for Bitcoin because I think that

2:25:53

we are politically much more

2:25:55

powerful you know supported by the

2:25:57

entire crypto industry right they

2:26:00

obviously have a lot of political power

2:26:01

a lot of users and and they serve as a

2:26:04

as another line of defense for Bitcoin

2:26:07

so I think uh instead of someone saying

2:26:10

well there's one crypto asset maybe I'll

2:26:12

allocate 1% of my money to it I think

2:26:15

mainstream investors might say oh

2:26:17

there's a crypto asset class now and

2:26:19

maybe we'll allocate 5% or 10% of the

2:26:22

crypto asset class but Bitcoin will be

2:26:24

60% or 70% of that so I actually think

2:26:27

it could accelerate institutional

2:26:29

adoption we're back to indexing it's

2:26:31

good for marketing yeah there'll be

2:26:34

there'll be all these other things

2:26:35

that'll happen and you just kind of have

2:26:38

to rethink you know all of your models

2:26:42

and and move forward in a new world with

2:26:45

with the caveat that I looked at you

2:26:47

know last night fit 21 the the the

2:26:50

crypto bill was passed in a Landslide by

2:26:54

the House of Representatives 73 Dems

2:26:56

voted for it yeah I don't know exact

2:26:59

number but it it was like 2/3 1/3 so it

2:27:01

was a 66% or something majority it's a

2:27:06

484 page Bill okay so I started reading

2:27:10

it you know and reading F it's hard to

2:27:13

read 500 pages and internalize it but

2:27:15

I'm sure they haven't read it yeah and

2:27:18

it goes to the Senate and so I imagine

2:27:20

there be a lot of debate about what goes

2:27:21

into 484

2:27:23

Pages what what clearly they want to do

2:27:26

is they want to create a a um a

2:27:30

regulatory process to establish a

2:27:32

digital commodity and Define

2:27:34

decentralization and Define a digital

2:27:36

commodity and and and treat the rest I

2:27:40

think that again this would be political

2:27:42

but the difference is instead of one one

2:27:46

party is taking the position uh um

2:27:50

limited Bitcoin nothing else and you

2:27:53

know we're afraid of Bitcoin the the

2:27:56

only explanation I can come up with for

2:27:58

why you would believe in Bitcoin but be

2:28:00

but be so resistant to bitcoin options

2:28:03

in kind creates and Bitcoin custody for

2:28:06

banks is bitcoin's so good we don't want

2:28:08

it to go too fast we we don't want it to

2:28:10

grow too quickly because it might

2:28:12

destabilize the traditional system but

2:28:14

one party was limited Bitcoin and the

2:28:17

other party was crypto and now

2:28:20

we've got one party we're defined by

2:28:23

crypto advocacy very Pro crypto Pro

2:28:26

Bitcoin aggressively PR crypto and the

2:28:30

second party uh responsible crypto

2:28:34

responsible

2:28:35

Bitcoin but we're enthusiastic right I

2:28:38

mean that's that's how the playing

2:28:40

Shield field is shifted and that will

2:28:43

Ripple to the rest of the world right

2:28:46

however the US goes it'll go to

2:28:47

Singapore the UAE the EU and there are

2:28:50

even signs that this is it's already

2:28:53

rippled into Hong Kong but it may Ripple

2:28:55

back into China and so ultimately I

2:28:58

think uh 2024 will definitely be viewed

2:29:02

as a pivotal year but I don't see how

2:29:04

you can view it as anything other than

2:29:08

incredibly auspicious uh for the

2:29:11

adoption of Bitcoin by nation states

2:29:15

large Banks institutional investors and

2:29:18

there's there's just an explosion in

2:29:20

Global consensus that this is an idea

2:29:22

whose time has come and we'll be living

2:29:25

with uh you know a lot of other crypto

2:29:27

ideas along the way for quite a while to

2:29:30

come I think but none of them none of

2:29:33

them are threatening to us at this point

2:29:35

I think Bitcoin has gotten too

2:29:38

mature has become too powerful to be

2:29:41

threatened by another crypto I think

2:29:44

this is going to be a case of a rising

2:29:45

tide is going to lift all

2:29:48

boats we probably could have gone from

2:29:50

for another 3 or 4 hours I think that's

2:29:52

a good good time we save I mean there's

2:29:55

so many things I wanted to get into you

2:29:57

that with you I haven't done yet so

2:29:58

we'll just have to do it again uh thank

2:30:01

you for your hospitality always a

2:30:03

pleasure I don't know when I'll see you

2:30:05

next uh Nashville probably it was fun

2:30:08

we'll have something to talk about next

2:30:10

time around I'm sure thanks Michael

2:30:13

thank you to everyone listening see you

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