Michael Saylor on The Fiat Standard | The Bitcoin Standard Podcast | (Audio only)| 16 February 2021
Bitcoin Standard · 2021-02-21 · 2h 13m · View on YouTube →
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hello welcome to another meeting of the
michael sailor appreciation society
our special guest today is michael
saylor himself
fresh from the bitcoin form for
corporations conference
in which he promoted bitcoin to
corporate america
in very very strong uh made a very
strong
case for bitcoin why it matters for
corporations and why it matters for
corporate
balance sheets we've had michael on
before and we spoke
about his ideas on bitcoin and his ideas
on
inflation and cost of living and he's
been an absolute
thunderball of inspiration and powerful
ideas
since coming into the bitcoin space over
the last year and it's an absolute
pleasure to have him
back again thank you very much for
coming back michael thanks for having me
i guess we'll start with talking about
the bitcoin for corporations conference
so what were your impressions of the
corporations
take they buy your pitch
clearly some of them did tesla namely
but what was the general impression
you had my impression was i was
surprised at how much enthusiasm there
is
you know when we started in august we
were the first public company to make a
serious commitment
and then square followed us and then
marathon
patent did a pretty big bitcoin
acquisition for their balance sheet a
few weeks ago
150 million dollars and and then when
tesla did it
you know we've now got four public
companies
in a row that have all made pretty
material commitments
of course the market's been enthusiastic
the market's
you know generally the market's been
very supportive of
all the bitcoin companies if you look at
square
stock paypal stock riot blockchain stock
marathon stock microstrategy's been well
treated
i think tesla of course is the most
successful you know stock of the year
we've checked off one question which was
how will public
shareholders view this and there was
some trepidation
and in fact they've viewed it
enthusiastically for example since
since marathon did their 150 million
dollar bitcoin acquisition their stock
doubled
if you're wondering how the public
shareholders will view it
oftentimes thing that holds back public
companies from doing something is
they're concerned about how it'll be
perceived by their outside shareholders
and because
it's very difficult to meet with outside
shareholders
they're changing every minute of the day
between 9 30 and 4 p.m right your
shareholder base is changing
so it's like trying to grab uh grab on
to a whirlpool in the middle of an ocean
you can't quite get your hands around it
it's dynamic
that's a challenge but as we came in the
conference i thought
first of all there's a lot of demand
bubbling up we had a lot of people
asking us a lot of people are asking us
how did you do this what should we do
there's illegal issues regulatory issues
you know will you trip the 40 act are
you going to be an etf
what's the accounting treatment for it
what appropriate corporate
governance you know rather than try to
have one
meeting at a time you know say fiden you
realize at some point
if you had 40 hours of meetings a week
for the next 30 years
well that's like 2 000 times 30
right was that 6 000 you can touch
6 000 people in 30 years
you just can't go fast enough so you
can't do these one at a time so
we thought let's just go ahead and add
it as a track to microstrategy world
which was all virtual and i thought by
the way microstrategy world last year
was 2
500 of our customers in a room it cost
us 4 million dollars and it cost them
probably another six million dollars so
we spent 10 million dollars in 2019 to
put 2500 customers into
a convention center this year
microstrategy world
we probably spent 1 15 that much money
our customers spent nothing
so we spent probably one thirtieth
we reduced our travel and ex and
entertainment
and event budget by 97 percent
by the way we've we reduced all of our
travel and events
budget by 98 year over
year if you want an interesting factoid
98
so microstrategy was pulled off for 97
less money we had 21 000
people registered instead of 2 500
we thought we'll tack on bitcoin for
corporations
as an afterthought i thought well if we
get 800 that would be good then i
thought
well we'll probably get a thousand and i
thought well we get 2 000.
and i went on television and i said well
i think we'll get 2 000.
and then we had this surge and the day
of the event
no joke it broke the internet like it
actually broke our video server
and the stress was we blew through 15
000 people
and i was on the phone with my i.t
people saying you know
get more capacity you know from our our
vendor
and for like an hour or two hours we
actually were
in the morning leading up to the noon
thing we were like maxed out and i was
worried
so some enterprising cyber hornets
the i love the bitcoiners they're so
enterprising while i'm trying to solve
the problem the conventional way someone
turns on live streaming to youtube
and they set up bootleg live streaming
channels that have thousands of people
on them when we finally got to the noon
session
uh with ross by who you introduced me to
by the way
i think thank you so we got to the noon
session with ross and we had um
8 500 people come into that session so i
thought i'd have 2 000 and we
we went to 8 500. i thought i'd have um
1500 companies represented and it was
actually 7
000 companies represented in the live
session
and then the live session got bootlegged
out and posted on youtube went viral i
think we're up to about 250
000 views now so i guess the summary
would be
exceeded my expectations and we had
people from
spacex there we had people you know some
of elon musk companies
we had people from marathon there
the ones you would expect were there but
of course
there's an avalanche a private companies
and and there were a decent number of
public companies and treasurers and cfos
that were lurking some don't want to
have their names mentioned as you can
imagine
because it's a sensitive topic right as
material for a company
but i think we can call it a success
because
on television for the past few days
we've had the ceo of gm
asked if they're going to invest in
bitcoin we've had the cfo of twitter
asked about bitcoin we've had the ceo of
uber
asked about bitcoin you know we just had
the mayor
of uh miami francis suarez
announced that they're moving forward to
put bitcoin on their balance sheet
and it's become part of the conversation
even to the extent that now people are
grappling with the accounting and the
volatility issues
which i i account to be as an incredible
success for all of us right because
a year ago no one would have even
discussed this
this morning we had a milestone in the
cfo section
of the wall street journal the
challenges of incorporating bitcoin on
the balance sheet for cfos was discussed
in an
article and i think that's the first
time
that the wall street journal and the cfo
section had ever
actually brought up the topic of bitcoin
so
the implication is it's in the
conversation
everywhere and increasingly people have
to
come to terms with why they're not doing
it and they'll be technical reasons
oh it's volatile right i mean it's going
up 200 percent a year but it's
it's going up it's making us large sums
of money in a volatile fashion that's a
technical reason
but if you're an investor and your
reason for not investing in something
is it's making money too fast in an
unpredictable fashion
i'm not going to say what i think of
that it's quite amusing to me
but uh if i had to be criticized i think
i'd like to be criticized for making
money too fast in a
unpredictable fashion and then they're
grappling with the accounting issues
because if you hold it as the underlying
asset it's it's currently accounted for
as an intangible on the balance sheet
which is the most conservative way
i kind of like the way you'd account for
patents or things like that
you know if you hold it as a fund then
it may
under certain circumstances be accounted
for as an investment asset
but then if you have a fund it's a
security
and if you hold the asset it's property
in a commodity
and if you have a lot of securities
at some point you might trip the sec 40
act and become a finance
company because you have more than 40
percent of your assets as securities
there are a lot of nuances and people
are grappling with them but they're good
debates right good discussions to be
having right now and a year ago no one
would have even considered these matters
and so we
we have injected this into the
conversation
i think around the world and i think the
bitcoin conference was part of it
clearly the tesla purchase was helpful
and i think february 8th
you could call mainstream day safedean
february 8th
this year was the date when the entire
story of bitcoin as a treasury reserve
asset
crossed outside of the bitcoin in the
crypto community
and it was on in the wall street journal
the washington
well the the new york times irish news
the straits
times every major financial publication
everywhere in the world and all the
mainstream media
i got invited the next day to go on cnbc
bloomberg fox cnn
npr and i'm like no more i can't do any
more but the point is
cnn npr these are not
you know bitcoin journals these are
mainstream sources
so i think the message is exploding into
the mainstream
you could start the clock you know
february 8th was the day
the shot was heard round the world and
that
combined with the bitcoin for
corporations uh
summit placed this in the public domain
the beauty now of course is i used to
meet with a hundred people
and i could meet with 10 a week and then
we met with 8 000 people
and then it went viral to 250 000 people
and now we published our bitcoin
playbook and and
that's out there circulating amongst
lawyers and accountants and advisors and
investors and
we just let that percolate and i think
uh good things will happen
absolutely i you know i was going to say
the exact thing that you mentioned which
is
one year ago none of this was going on
anywhere nobody was talking about any of
this stuff
i remember exactly was one year ago it
was a conference
and i was with somebody who works at a
bitcoin company and i was telling them
they were talking about some
blockchain nonsense and i was telling
them that the case for corporations
really is
hold a small part of your balance sheet
in bitcoin and especially if you're
operating internationally it'll help you
to get around
banking closures and that'll uh protect
you from inflation and also
the response that i used to get when i
mentioned this to people was always
no it's too volatile and the accounting
would be too much of a headache there's
no way anybody would do it and it's
incredible
um and and it's almost entirely down to
you
how the conversation has entirely
shifted in a year now to the point where
we have a complete playbook that
you know the lawyers and the accountants
can just go to microstrategy.com
download
your corporate playbook and they have
the complete guide to how they
need to answer those questions and we've
already had
thousands of them show up so i think i
can't what commend you on your
incredible service to the cause and this
unbelievable uh contribution of just
putting this out there
and and forcing it upon people and it's
um people call it speculation and people
say well people are just speculating but
i think um
ultimately every economic decision is
speculation
and maybe the reason this speculation is
paying off is because it is
a better economic decision maybe it's
just that it's a better asset on the
balance sheet than the world is
discovering that
yeah i mean clearly i words can be
prejudicial as we talked about before
you know if i kicked you into the ocean
and i threw a life preserver and neck or
life raft next to you
it wouldn't be a speculation to put on
the life that you know the life vest or
crawl onto the life raft
if you were walking through the desert
and about to drown and i dropped a water
bottle that was sealed
of an uh from a brand that you'd never
purchased in a supermarket before
it wouldn't be a speculation to crack
open the water bottle and drink the
water
and if you if you lived in argentina and
the currency was crashing and you had
pesos and you had the opportunity to buy
a tangible asset or
or convert your money to dollars i don't
think it would be a speculation
i think it would be rational right like
you know if i kicked you out of an
airplane and you had a parachute it
wouldn't be a speculation to pull the
rip cord either i mean
i it's just you know it's only
speculation when you don't understand
the engineering or the science behind
the thing
then it's speculation you could say it
was speculation
for amazon to use the internet to sell
books
and expect people to buy amazon stock as
well
but it works fifteen thousand retail
companies got destroyed
for their lack of speculation hey can we
talk about the fiat
standard absolutely yes so
a couple of thoughts i had you made this
point you said um
we're talking about money progressing
from soft
to hard the gold standard was the
culmination of
uh commodity monies you know from glass
beads and sea
shells and stone coins and and the like
and copper and
brass and eventually we get to gold and
gold as pinnacle and silver is next and
so if gold is the hardest commodity
money
it lasts the longest and then you make
the point
human beings are able to take a longer
view i mean your time horizon stretches
out
you know if you had sea shells as money
or carved wood sticks
your time horizon wouldn't last beyond
the rotting of the wood sticks
or your timer eyes it wouldn't last
longer than when people trekked off to
the seashore to get more seashells
so if gold is the hardest money of that
time period and human beings were able
to take a long
view they can create longer lasting
structures right if you have a if you
have a harder money you can create
a longer-lived structure and that
structure would be an institution
and the hard money is working against
time right time is the uh the impedance
and the money is flowing through time so
i started thinking about that as an
engineer and i thought um materials
progress from soft to hard and we build
with wood
and then we build with the brick and
then we build with stone
and then we build with iron and then we
build with steel
and and steel is right now right the
the winner of the materials and and
using the hardest material
human beings are able to create the
tallest structures
the largest and the tallest they're
working against gravity
right so time is an elemental force
gravity is an elemental force
so the significance of steel is
i'm able to build a 100 story skyscraper
and the significance of strong money
or gold money was maybe i could create a
50
100 year old dynasty of some sort
maybe i could even build a cathedral
based upon the gold
money progresses from slower to faster
when we get to bitcoin you've got a
harder money than gold
so if it's harder that means in theory
you can build structures like
institutions that will last longer than
the gold institutions or the fiat
institutions
i had the thought when jack dorsey just
announced today that he put 500 bitcoin
into
an institution or an endowment to
finance bitcoin
development and with a focus on africa
and the like so presumably bitcoin
development lightning development
etc and i thought 500 bitcoin will
eventually be
if you don't spend it it'll be worth 500
million dollars
you know we'll get to a million dollars
a coin and then maybe bitcoin will start
to appreciate it 20
a year 30 and eventually it'll slow down
but
but you could borrow against 500 million
dollars
50 million a year which is enough to
finance 100 you know a development unit
of hundreds of software developers
forever you know a simple rule of thumb
500 btc might reasonably support 500
professionals
working an organization forever
okay now uh you know
that's why right because it number goes
up it's a store of value
if i put the equivalent amount of money
into government bonds you know the
half-life is
you know it's not going to support
anything right like
500 bc you can calculate it today right
that's
what is it two and a half no no 500 btc
it's 25 million dollars
right yeah so 25 million dollars
invested in
in what something which is going up less
than
20 a year is losing value right so
you're gonna i can't do it in the s p
wouldn't work gold doesn't even work
they're both clocking at 15
a year sovereign debt doesn't work so
the nasdaq sort of works it's going up
big tech
sort of works but you couldn't really
say forever
with big tech you know like because it's
tied in
to you know it's got so many risks and
complexities
so if i endow an institution with with
the hardest money
i could recently have a 100 year
multi-hundred year time horizon and i'd
look in the face i say
yeah it looks to me like 500 btc will
support
250 to 500 people i mean 250 at 200 000
a year
500 at 100 000 a year i mean are you
supporting people if you're supporting
people in africa
developers in africa the cost per
right now the cost per engineer is 25
000 to 50
000 a year probably 25 000 a year
so you could support 500 people forever
let's call it a thousand years i mean i
mean we can go back and forth but
so hard money lets you work against
time with a with an institution
and then i think you've just got you've
got this other dimension which is
is it smarter and is it faster
bitcoin is maybe 10 or 100 times harder
than gold and so we can look
we can look out hundreds and hundreds of
years but it's million times
faster than gold yeah i pointed this out
the other day if you have
if you have a billion dollar block of
gold is 30 000 pounds moving it
across a continent is probably a five
million dollar
thousand hour exercise thousand hours to
organize it it's view 747s
lots of armed guards lots of diplomatic
issues so
five million dollars thousand hours and
if i want to move a billion dollar block
of bitcoin five dollars one hour
million times cheaper thousand times
faster
right now and so that means money
progress when money progresses from
slower to faster humans are able to
create higher frequency
structures and they're working against
space
or against friction right so
longer lived structures have to work
against time how
how am i going to endow the foundation
for a thousand years
and higher frequency structures are all
about
i need to move a billion dollars of gold
every two hours
or a billion dollars of money every two
hours not
every two months and the gold of course
is so low frequency
it doesn't oscillate at all right i mean
like you have a billion dollars if you
have 30 000 pounds of gold how
frequently does it move
i mean didn't the french send that
aircraft carrier to pick up their gold
once in a century
yeah like like is it like once a decade
type thing
we're talking about a lot of millions of
dollars to send it
uh when they uh when uh they repatriated
their gold from the fed
i can't remember how much it cost but it
was in the tens of millions of dollars i
think
and it took years to move germany's gold
so it's very slow compared to bitcoin
yeah people that criticize bitcoin
for being slow they're running these lab
experiments in a garage
on their on their little alt coin moving
no money around
and it's kind of like criticizing
someone
you know running a power reactor when
you've got like a
a lighter in your hand you know it's
like like it totally unrelated
right it's it's silly if you're gonna
compare the speed
and the efficiency of bitcoin you have
to compare it to the gold network
because you need to have final
settlement on a billion dollars of money
uh of tangible property and uh you're
not really getting a million a billion
dollars of settlement on a fiat network
you know without so many other things so
i guess my point is
we have something which is going to last
a lot longer it's harder and we have
something which is
which moves faster so you create the
potential of high
frequency structures which are
inconceivable like a bank
that actually makes billion dollar loans
and moves the money tangibly
every day every hour every minute there
are certain structures people can
conceive of because
they never thought about being able to
tangibly move a billion dollars of
monetary energy in 37
minutes and then move it back in the
crypto world they got this idea of flash
loans
you know maybe that's the closest thing
i don't know how enamored i am with a
flash loan that lasts for like
400 milliseconds i don't know like that
it seems to me to be
interesting but cute maybe a little bit
more gimmicky i can definitely see the
application
of a loan that lasts 87 days
or 31 days or maybe moving a block of
money for 187 days
if i can do it cross two with two
counterparties two institutional
counterparties without the banks in the
middle and the government's in the
middle
and we we get to that in a second this
fiat issue that
opens up a new world you could imagine
in like 1600
in renaissance europe they're building
buildings with masonry and they're five
stories high
and someone says you know one day we'll
have steel and we're going to build
hundred
stories skyscrapers and they'll be
shaped differently
you know and the architects couldn't
even conceive of that because they
didn't have a
material strong enough i don't think
people can conceive of the kind of banks
or the kind of institutions that will
have with high frequency
money and i think this last issue is
money progresses from dumber to smarter
humans are able to create more complex
structures
and they're working against entropy
maybe complexity
maybe entropy is the word so we're
either working against
time we got to be harder we're working
against space we have to be fast we're
working against entropy
we got to be smarter and the material
is the semiconductor chip to make a
smarter
combined with bitcoin and the material
is the network to make us
faster combined with bitcoin i mean
bitcoin is basically sitting on
on the network on the chip getting
harder
faster smarter and
the conclusion you come to is just like
architecture
where i can break the laws of gravity
what did steel give us it didn't just
give us 50 50 100 story buildings it
also gave us
cantilevers and then also gave us
bridges right and carnegie made all his
money by the way
i read his biography his big customers
were
were municipalities buying uh
iron and steel for bridges bridge is a
pretty big deal actually and you can
make the argument bridges may be even
more important
to civilization than skyscrapers i mean
knock out the bridges in manhattan
and everybody starves to death yeah you
ever seen a bridge
you know the bridge that connects san
francisco and oakland or the bay bridge
that
connects the eastern shore of maryland
dc with the bridge it's a one-hour
commute
without the bridge it's a 12-hour
commute or
18-hour drive in one case i drive to
work
and the other case i don't
yeah it ends the civilization
so i think that this this element of um
money
i think you put your finger on something
very fascinating
which is as the money gets harder
we can see further into the future with
our institutions
but i think as it gets smarter and
faster
we can construct institutions
or relationships that are inconceivable
before with slow soft money
and i would say that takes us to fiat
right
i mean fiat is softer money it's
faster than a block of gold but it's
still
so much slower and stupider right than
bitcoin
it's manual at the end of the day at
least gold is somehow automatic it's a
machine in a sense it has its own truth
within it
you can verify it even though it's a
little bit expensive but
uh with fiat you know it's it's
ultimately manual but
day-to-day use it is generally faster to
move it around than moving around
physical gold
but it's real drawback as as you were
saying is in
holding on to value for the future
that's where it's really not good and
in that sense i the way that i look at
it is the higher the money
the more it incentivizes us to lower our
time preference and therefore makes us
think more and more about the future
because
the harder the money the less uncertain
the future
because now you have something that you
know i have these
this wealth this monetary energy that
i've stored
and i have more certainty in the fact
that it's going to be there in a year
or in two years in three years so then
one year and two year and three years
becomes
more of a foreseeable thing for me less
of an uncertain thing for
you so i start discounting less when i
start discounting it
less i start effectively lowering my
time preference and providing for the
future and
this is why i think you know the harder
money got
you know silver and gold were
continuously getting harder and then
silver was eliminated and gold was
hardest
that was the pinnacle of human
achievement arguably this one
this was when we made the most
incredible technology this is when we
invented
all these incredible things like the
airplane and many many many things
of the 19th century discussing the
bitcoin standard and i think
in the 20th century maybe we've reversed
that process because our money is
getting easier and so
the future is becoming less certain and
so we're becoming more high time
preference because we discount the
future more
i agree with that yeah i think you put
your finger on something there which is
the future gets hazier and you see more
anxiety
i mean i know as a corporate ceo in
march
as i was staring at a block of 500
million u.s
dollars and i was watching the the money
supply expand
and the dollar devalued my anxiety went
through the roof
my anxiety went up so high
that it kind of kicked me out of the
fiat standard into the bitcoin standard
right
like if like boiling a frog or jumping
out of the boiling whatever i mean
it literally shocked me it's all about
engineering
a mechanism or engineering security for
yourself
right i mean steel allows me to stand on
a cantilevered structure
a hundred feet over a canyon or it
allows me to stand on a bridge a
thousand feet
over the hudson river or or the east
river
with security i can even drive a car
over it and steel allows me to drive
to stand uh 800 feet in the air
right and and you imagine the insecurity
of that taking the structure away
the human beings are able to go to
places
with engineering space stations right
we're able to go places with engineering
where
otherwise you literally can't live like
there is no life
there without the engineering you know
you got me thinking about
the fiat standard and you know some of
the criticisms i've heard
lately about energy consumption of
bitcoin got me thinking about well
what's the comparable
system and again the critics are people
that
again they have like they have a little
um
toy railroad train in their garage and
they think well my toy railroad train is
more efficient than bitcoin
but they don't really contrast the
energy consumption of bitcoin
to the energy consumption of of the
alternative system
that it is replacing so if you look at
the fiat system
money's got to do two things it's got a
it's got to be a medium of exchange and
a store of value
and uh bitcoin kind of is a is one
structure
and and the fiat is another structure so
i look at the current system and i think
well to make this work when we replace
the gold standard i mean
the gold standard and it's when
commodity money reached its pinnacle i
suppose
after all the shuffling around we
eventually arrived at gold coins and
silver coins
and gold in my opinion is store of value
and silver is the medium of exchange or
you know one of them was the day-to-day
currency a gold coin with like
what eight grand eight grams like a
quarter of an
ounce feels like it's about five hundred
dollar coin
and so the gold coin is about one week
salary
for a you know for a lot of a laborer
and you wouldn't have used a 500 coin or
a thousand dollar
coin to pay for things routinely but you
know if i gave you a stack of 10 of them
that's your
that's your treasury so the silver coin
is the medium
exchange and and in that standard you've
got a very clean structure
gold coin silver coin you mine the gold
you mine the silver you mint the gold
you meant the silver you store the gold
you store the silver they all circulate
around
and eventually maybe their gold notes
right there
maybe some notes that are fractional or
fully reserved banks
moving that around when we went to the
fiat standard
we replaced that with um the treaty of
genoa got me thinking about this safety
like
we replaced this with diplomats
corporations accountants lawyers
programmers security guards contractors
buildings armies software mints
we kept the mints we kept the printers
we kept the gold mines
we kept the vaults and then we tacked on
ideas like etfs bond indexes
bond funds financial managers
and everything else around them
in order to create a medium of exchange
and
a store of value i'm trying to figure
out how much energy is consumed
by you know what is it like uh
a hundred thousand bank buildings or
jp morgan has 200 000 people so i'm i'm
guessing there must be
in the finance industry around the world
in the us is like 8 million so half
of the finance industry is tied up in in
store of value medium of exchange so
if we could figure it out it'd probably
like 40 million people in the world
maybe it's 20 to 40 million people
so what's the carbon footprint and the
building footprint and the concrete
footprint and the steel footprint and
the electricity consumption
of and i and i was kind of kind i didn't
i'm not really allocating
all the armies and the like but you
could probably say
if you really wanted to to keep track of
the real cost
of of the system the proof of work
system so you got to put in the military
yeah i mean you the first cost of the
system is probably
20 million 30 million bankers
and financial advisors and the like
and then the secondary that's the
primary cost the secondary cost
is all the government infrastructure the
diplomats and the military officials and
and uh the aircraft carriers and the
armies and the back and forth
i guess the third cost is actually the
wars themselves
that get wage back and forth and then i
think the fourth cost
the pernicious cost i guess is the
inflation
yeah if if we're burning
you know you said what seven or eight
percent was the monetary inflation
on average if there's 500 trillion
dollars of monetary assets and
you're debasing five percent of it a
year even
it's 25 trillion dollars so i don't know
50 trillion dollars a year
it must be 50 trillion if we could
somehow calculate that number i mean
if you really want to do something
useful calculate the cost
of the infrastructure the banking
infrastructure then the governmental
infrastructure
and then the cost of the of the first
order cost of the currency debasement
and the second order impact on the
currency derivatives the stocks the
bonds and
the real estate and then after you've
done that you could throw in
uh the ins the business insolvency and
the destruction of
good enterprises and then the political
insolvency destruction of good
countries right the inefficiency of the
system results in the destruction of
entire countries
i guess the best example being like
right the meltdown of the weimar
republic due to the treaty of versailles
which was
i think largely you know a result of uh
poor
treatment of debt and uh you know
following world war one
i mean they pretty much crashed that
entire political system
because of the way they uh they layered
the the debt
you know asymmetrically on the germans
and not on the french and the americans
and
you know that we know how that one ended
which was
wasn't good for anybody i think we can
see
you know in the 20th century we see an
example of lots of
countries destroyed by the fiat standard
i'm sensitive to all the companies
destroyed by the fiat standard as well
the example of that is as they keep
cranking up the monetary expansion rate
and as ceos keep attempting to keep
their to have their stockhold value
the only way the stock can hold value is
to expand the cash flows per share
faster than the rate of money expansion
and that means that uh in an environment
where the money's expanding at seven
percent a year
if your company's growing three percent
a year you can't store value in the
stock
and the political pressure the whole
value in the stock causes you to
go take on massive debt and then the
mass of debt is used to either issue
dividends or to buy the stock back
and so what you're doing is you're
taking on a billion dollars of
liabilities to actually
pump the stock up and then you're
impoverishing
the company eventually you end up with
the company having billions of dollars
of debt
no equity and then when you hit a crisis
like a technology crisis like amazon
attacks
toys r us well then you're insolvent or
you have a
pandemic crisis and they shut down you
know your restaurant and you're
insolvent
so the crises create insolvencies
because the cap the companies
are under capitalized because they took
on debt
under political pressure to keep their
stock up and
and you can see that playing out even
right now
where the majority of c like we just saw
i'm not going to name the cfos but the
majority of cfos and ceos will say
it's we're going to take our cash and
buy our stock back
and conventional financial thinking is
reward
ceos and cfos for buying stocks back and
issuing dividends
and criticizes them for buying bitcoin
or tangible assets with their cash flows
right like i would be criticized as a
speculator
taking risk with my balance sheet even
though today i have 3.2 billion dollars
of
tangible assets on my balance sheet a
year ago i had 500 million
right and conventional wisdom is you
should give away the 500 million and
have zero
so conventional thinking is decapitalize
the company
and you're really ostracized or
criticized
if you convert cash from
a weak asset to a strong asset
right primarily by conventional thinking
i i know i said a lot and i throw a lot
out there but i should pause and we
should just
talk about it because i think uh you
know there's a lot of interesting
implications and and they start with
this
idea of the fiat system and the fiat
standard
yeah that is uh that is great uh thank
you for that
like the cost of the fiat standard is
all the things that you mentioned and
there's also the
uh just the the business cycle which is
constantly causing
misallocation of capital and businesses
to um
inve make male investments which get
wiped out
all the time and then there's the fact
that
um and and this is primarily outside the
u.s
it's it's so much bigger problem
elsewhere which is that
you have the country's payments balances
all of their international account and
their current account
all of it is settled with the central
bank's cash balance
which is also used to back
people's uh deposits in the banking
system and it is also used
to buy government bonds so essentially
it's financing government bonds
and it back to the national currency so
you're constantly
putting all of society's savings and all
of society's ability to trade with the
form of the outside world
essentially as collateral for government
to borrow against
and of course the government has a high
time preference incentives
to continue to abuse this all the time
and so it ends up
creating all kinds of man all kinds of
destruction of savings and destruction
of capital i think
that's really well it's hard to estimate
which is the biggest but i think
if you think about a century of
misallocation of capital
and when you think that you know how
much capital we've misallocated
and how much capital was essentially
leaked
away from people from prudent productive
people who had put it away
to finance their future and then
suddenly so it go poof because their
central bank had printed it
and all that went to finance wasteful
government spending and weight and
war and investment in in things that
were not
chosen in the market if you think about
the opportunity cost of that over a
century
i think the world would be a very
different place and i you know i don't
necessarily have to
speculate about technological
achievements that we haven't made but i
think
with the things that we have i think you
know owning a house with electricity
and you know 24-hour electricity and
running water
is probably something that would be
attainable for everybody in the world if
money was hard you know if you think
about it
anybody particularly people in the
poorest countries in the world if they
had had gold for the last century
it would be almost trivial for people to
be able to secure
a modern house with electricity and uh
running
hot water as a basic infrastructure i
think
the upside of where we would be is is is
almost unimaginable for people
uh in our position but i think the the
the bare minimum
would be that basic technology would be
far cheaper all over the world and far
more easily available because people
could
afford them it's not that expensive to
move to build a
an engine that gives you 24-hour
electricity it's it's a really simple
engineering problem that's been solved
in many places in the world for many
many decades
and it just keeps getting cheaper every
year and i think you know the reason
that many people in the world don't have
it is because they have bad money that
just continues
to lose value and it ruins their time
preferences we were saying earlier it
prevents them from thinking
of the future one thing that's
interesting to me
is um in the perfect gold standard the
store of value is a gold coin
and the medium exchange is a silver coin
as i read the fiat standard i see
you know we kind of had to abandon the
gold standard because we needed
faster money and we needed larger
quantities of it
you know we replaced the gold standard
with this network of
tens of thousands of banks and hundreds
of central banks and
armies of accountants and and lawyers
and uh and bureaucrats the currency was
the medium of exchange the store of
value when the
when uh the fiat system worked first
they tried to store value as gold right
it seems like they they layered on
uh fiat currency over gold to try to do
that and then
over time as the the gold got seized and
it was
it was synthetic gold or hypothecated
gold
and then in 71 that kind of the
semblance of that started breaking down
and then the store of value in the fiat
system was sovereign debt
if we look at the world today there's
all the currency and
and the theoretical store value right if
you ask a corporate treasurer
what are you going to do with your
treasury i need to store my value well
i don't hold it in cash outright i would
hold it in
government debt right treasuries where
the gold
the gold standard right is treasuries
and by
that kind of worked like for example um
the currency system used to have
international currency trading used to
kind of work there was price discovery
in the market for example
you remember when um you know greek debt
was trading
what was it like eight percent or nine
or ten percent and
i remember spanish debt or italian debt
used to trade
five six percent i would say if you go
back to before the eu was formed
and you had all these countries with all
their different currencies the
currencies were in a competitive market
and if a country wanted to keep its
currency from collapsing
you had to raise the interest rate so
you remember when people used to have 12
interest rates and eight percent by the
way under the volcker regime we go back
to the 80s you had ronald reagan he was
fairly conservative volcker was
conservative
there you had the fiat standard but they
you know they took the interest rates to
18
in the u.s thinking was countries had to
compete
to make the currency viable you know you
had to have
interest rates that were market set and
in that world
you had eight percent 30-year bonds and
you had five percent
bonds and in 2010 short-term interest
rates were five percent
so you remember you were saying well you
know like the money supply was expanding
at like seven or eight percent
maybe seven percent or something in that
world if i'm a corporate treasurer
i can get five or six percent on bonds
call it credit worthy bonds right triple
a credit
the store of value in the fiat system
when it works
and we'll go back to good old days
ronald reagan maybe was the good old
days
when it works you buy credit grade bonds
triple a rated you buy sovereign debt it
yields four
five six percent the money supply
expands
either three percent or seven percent
say it's expanding at seven or eight
percent
you're getting a two percent loss or one
percent loss
i give you a hundred million dollars the
half-life of the money
is 35 years so in that world
you can have a by 35 years or 30 years
it's kind of a magic number it's
it's your career safety so if i'm a ceo
or i'm a corporate treasurer and i'm
running on the fiat standard
in that time period i can take my
capital
i can put it into like credit worthy
bonds
not take a lot of execution risk and not
try to guess
you know what happens with zoom versus
tesla and i'm not
quote unquote speculating right
the fiat standard when it works gives
you sovereign debt and credit
instruments that allow me as a
responsible corporate treasurer
to protect the assets of the company for
the next 20 to 30 years long enough
for the company to execute its business
strategy that used to work but then
something started
breaking down over the last 30 years and
today it's busted
there's no price discovery sovereign
debt is not a store of value
last week the junk bond index dipped
below five percent it was four point
nine percent
okay the theoretical risk on junk bonds
the risk of default
to anybody is four percent but
to a rational person it feels like it's
eight percent
it's four to eight percent is the risk
on the bond which means that if you're
getting four percent yield
you're at best zero and at worst it's a
negative real yield of four percent
or something after credit adjustment so
that tells you that corporate bonds
sovereign debt
and junk bonds are no longer stores of
value
and currencies yield no interest
the u.s 30-year swap was 72 basis points
a year ago
today it's 180 175 basis points
and that's the best you're going to get
the eu 30-year swap is
20 basis points it's nothing there's no
yield
so what can you say you can say the fiat
standard
has broken down starting the year 2020
because at this point there is no
tangible store of value where all the
traditional treasury instruments are no
longer stores of value
now when did it start and i'm going over
this in my head and i just forgive me i
read your book you got me thinking i'm
literally thinking about this morning
but i'm thinking
i think it started to break down with
the japanese in 1980s
i think the japanese had a crisis the
crisis was
the digital revolution computer chip
came out
intel microsoft the japanese dominate
analog electronics the world shifts to
digital electronics their exports
start slipping and as the world moves to
the computer age the japanese economy
weakens their reaction is the central
bank starts to intervene
they're a closed system an authoritarian
a single government in a closed system
under economic
crisis and so they started they start
buying everything
price discovery disappears asset
inflation goes through the roof
real estate in tokyo goes through the
roof
zombie companies start to manifest
themselves
the economy freezes and that's the first
place you see the breakdown of the fiat
standard the interest rate goes to
laughable numbers non-competitive
and it's like this self-referential
closed system it doesn't make any sense
whatsoever
and america looks at it and we're you
know in america we have
18 interest rates you know and so the
japanese response was
was central bank intervention and they
were the first major country and maybe
not the first because i
i'm not a student of china and every
other country
i just noticed in japan then what
happens next
america has the reagan revolution and so
reagan and volcker
really define the game plan until 88
and we have the fiat system lurching
toward normal you had savings accounts
that yield
six seven eight percent interest you
know the way you know that that there's
a semblance
of normalcy is checking accounts yields
zero and savings account yield eight
percent interest and the banking system
offers
those things you know a savings account
allows me to save money
if the money supply is debasing at seven
percent a year and the savings account
is yielding seven percent interest
there's some hope you know when i was a
kid there was hope
and then clinton came in and clinton
inherited a great economy
and microsoft's killing it and there's
the internet revolution and
and google and apple and this is the
rise of america and all of a sudden we
thought
the japanese were going to own
everything in america they were buying
the rockefeller center
sony was crushing everybody et cetera
so we lurched in 1980 at inflection
point
america got its mojo back and we thought
technology
and the internet you know that makes us
leaders we didn't think we were world
economic leaders when reagan was elected
i mean people really thought the
japanese they were setting up toyota
plants we're gonna
there's a movie gung ho we thought we're
gonna be working for the japanese
the world took a left turn the japanese
economy
missed the digital revolution and i
think this is deep seated in the
japanese language it's a pictographic
language
they didn't have the programming skills
they missed the the digital revolution
america started to rise the rise of the
western at
western europe the u.s started to
prosper from
digital productivity and clinton
inherited this
this very healthy economy from reagan
and clinton was kind of a moderate
and we went on to 2000 and then what
happens in 2000
the eu okay and before the eu
you had all these different currencies
and when you crossed
europe every currency had its own
interest rate and its own bank
and they're competitive with each other
and if a currency prints too much their
currency crashes
and no one's going to save them and so
there there are interest rates you go
look at the interest rate they're real
interest rates there's like a seven
percent
a six percent and eight percent right
there are consequences to irrationality
under the fiat standard
when there's a hundred central banks and
they're all competing right and you
talked about in your book
like there's all these central banks the
us as the currency swap was
it wasn't uh 87 or 90 of
all currency it was like 30. you can see
this manifest itself in 1980
because when you had different currency
systems
the chinese the japanese the indian
south america the german bank the uk
the french the u.s they're all different
currency systems
you know and the u.s had to raise their
interest rates and their consequences to
our inflation we had to take interest
rates to 18 or 19 percent to actually
fix that problem we couldn't print money
with impunity
it's like pissing in your own bathtub
right it's a small bathtub and there are
consequences to foiling your own bathtub
but when it's the big ocean there are no
consequences and you feel like you can
you know if you print a trillion dollars
in a 10 trillion dollar economy that's a
problem
and if you print a trillion dollars in a
50 trillion dollar global economy that's
two percent right that's
that just goes away right so in 1980 you
couldn't do it
and we started lurching toward globalism
and then the eu is this big change
and what happened well the eu came in
with a light hand
but it was a massive increase in
governmental authority and fiat
authority because now you had an eu
central bank in my opinion you know the
biggest beneficiary of the eu
when the eu formed the biggest
beneficiary was the us
because you saw every local country
it limited the ability of deutschmark
from competing with the u.s dollar i
think that was really the
uh it gave the dollar release of life
because it tied the deutsche mark with
weaker european currencies
here's what i saw when i traveled
through europe in the 90s
there were 10 languages the menus were
in 10 different languages
10 different currencies i had to change
money in every border
i started with the thousand dollars i
ended with the quote of 780
or 900 the money changing was expensive
and i couldn't read the street signs
when you travel through europe after the
formation of the eu
all the menu is converted to english eu
adopted
english is the second language you've
converted to the euro
and if you're living in portugal or
you're living in france or you're living
in
spain you're thinking well i had to i
had to give up portuguese and spanish
and italian for english
and i had to give up the paseta and the
lira for the euro but i might as well
just go and convert it to the dollar
the italians aren't going to adopt
french and so
it's almost like all the europeans
agreed to adopt english
and then they started pegging to the
dollar
and the us was the big beneficiary
of the formation of the eu because
now everybody had to accept english in
the dollar
and that played into tcpip and the
internet
and google and facebook and apple
and amazon and and the entire
u.s economy benefited and it was us
san francisco progressive views san
francisco technology
u.s law the american legal and economic
and cultural system encroached on europe
in a big way
we saw the formation of a western net
i'll call it western europe in the
united states
a billion person trading bloc
trading in dollars convertible dollars
trading in english language
uh subject to basically u.s trade law
so what happened next well the eu was
weak
and there was a crisis and it used to be
that if i wanted to buy
italian bonds i could get eight percent
yield or seven percent yield
and the german bond yield was two
percent and the germans had the best
credit rating and the french were next
but the
you know the portuguese had a weaker one
and the italians had an awful credit
rating and their bonds yielded great
and the greeks you know like at some
point you could probably go back and
pull the bond yields it probably tells
the story
of the death of the fiat standard
right or the encroachment of the fiat
standard if you look at
bond yields in european countries from
2000
on there's a point at which they all
pretty much pegged to uh the eu bond
yield right
and that was as the eu central bank
started taking responsibility for
the default of the greeks probably the
greek crisis was probably a form
a seminal event when the eu bailed out
greece
that was an expansion of the eu's
central bank i almost think about two
crises
you know we had the great financial
crisis when
the united states bailed out every bank
and we forced them all
to take hundreds of billions of dollars
and we bailed out every european bank
with us dollars and it seems like once
we did that
we owned them all like the us dollar
as the world reserve currency it went
from being
thirty percent to forty percent to sixty
percent to eighty percent to ninety
percent
after that crisis and it seems like
after the debt crisis of greek
and after the italian debt crisis when
the eu central bank
bailed out those countries the eu kind
of owned them as well
the summary is by the time this is all
said and done
interest rates in the european union
have crashed to zero
short-term interest rates are negative
long-term interest rates you know they
were like eight basis points for 30-year
money
on a swap few weeks ago and so
what you really got is the massive
expansion of
the eu central bank and the fed from the
year 2000
to the year 2020 and as they expanded
all corporate debt all sovereign debt
stopped being as an effective store of
value
the currencies became dominant
and for whatever reason the u.s currency
just got progressively stronger and
stronger from 1980
to the year 2020 and now
you know the entire transition
transformation has taken its
its whole so i guess what you're saying
is basically
bitcoin eats the store of value market
so
what assets do you see that essentially
disrupting what what do we get rid of do
you think government bonds make sense
anymore you know or do you see them
phased out
i bet you can track this the early fiat
standard
had gold as a store of value the early
fiat stage
and then the mid stage of the fiat
standard i think had sovereign debt as a
store of value
and then i think the late stage the
twilight years
of the fiat standard i think it has
stock indexes
the rise of the vanguard 500 and john
bogle
and the s p the dow the s p the nasdaq
these stock indexes
they emerged as the store of value i
know maybe 2010
at what point did the swiss central bank
start holding stocks
2011 i think okay bingo when i was
getting started in business nobody would
have reasonably considered
stock indexes you know as a store value
they thought as an investment
but vanguard was was very successful
and the s p 500 is very successful i
think people at some point realized
bonds are only covering half of
inflation
cash isn't covering anything and the
stock indexes
start to track your monetary expansion
safedeen i think they're i mean pretty
close right like
s p is like seven eight eight percent a
year for a decade
yep i think that the free market
migrated i mean
the death of the savings account forced
everybody
probably into first bond indexes and
then stock indexes
and today 22 year old uber driver
knows that the savings account is
worthless you know if i have cash at
like some of these bills bulge bracket
banks
you know in their money market funds
they're actually charging like
they're offering 15 basis points yield
and charging 25 basis points management
fee
the literal the fee is higher than the
yield
on the account the marketplace
has migrated and it's being forced
and stage one was gold stage two was
sovereign debt
and then the rise of corporate triple a
rated debt
you could almost say that in order to
replace the gold standard
we had to have an army of credit rating
agencies the s
you know moody's and s p and you could
say
the rise of the junk bond market might
be explained by this people
desperately chasing after store of value
without equity risk finally they threw
in the towel and they started absorbing
some equity risk
and then in 2020 we kind of kicked the
thing into high gear right march of 2020
is the point where
everything just breaks like because five
six seven percent money expansion
against an eight percent
s p index and against a five percent
bond yield or
four percent credit worthy yield and
eight percent to ten percent junk bond
you
you can sort of almost make that work
but it stops working when the money
supply expands by 25
and the s p yield is 15 and the
junk bond yield is four percent an
argument
yield
it only worked in the 80s and the 90s
because essentially
it was financed by borrowing from the
future through manipulated interest
rates
and so effectively you know it's not
like it was working and now it broke
it was a short-term fix that was that
was inevitably going to break down
eventually
i think right now the only two story and
by the way the people are smarter in
some ways
than the politicians and mainstream
media because
even the 23 year old uber driver knows
that they're probably better off to buy
tesla stock or buy a market basket of
technology stocks
or even take a flyer on gamestop or buy
bitcoin
than they are to put their money in a
savings account and wait
i think that um what's happened is
people have migrated
the smart money has determined that
there's only two stores of value left
really smart money that's brave says
bitcoin if you're really progressive and
if you've got some courage
then you realize that the that the best
store of value is bitcoin is it's
digital gold the other layer of smart
money
that is either very comfortable they're
already wealthy
they've got plenty of money and they're
comfortable or they're conventional
the comfortable conventional smart money
has decided that big tech or growth is
the store of value
and that's the best surrogate for that
is nasdaq if i go
right now case for bitcoin and i look
what does that show me roi one year it's
saying bitcoin is 356 percent
up nasdaq is up 43
gold is up 14.7 s p is up 16
and treasuries are two and your money
expansion was 25
or what you know whatever you're gonna
plug in and if you plug in
15 going forward you can see you'll
tread water with gold and s
p maybe by the way i wouldn't i think
that
you're more likely to tread water with
the s p
i think with gold the gold is in a
parabolic
or a ballistic sorry it's a ballistic
trajectory
it got a boost in the crisis now it's
losing momentum
it's broken down in the last six months
and it's about to crash
and you're going to see people short
gold reallocate from gold the price is
going to crash
and it's probably the scariest possible
investment right now
because gold only exists as long as
people are looking for a non-sovereign
store of value
and you only need one right and there's
only one that can be
and you pretty much have to be brain
dead
to be allocating to gold versus bitcoin
in the year 2021.
you're just gonna have to like go
through mental gymnastics
so i can buy the argument that i buy a
market basket of all the stocks because
uh because you know that you're just
buying the economy
but i can't really buy the argument of
gold anymore and of course
treasuries are disasters because you're
long money
not only you taking on cash that's
losing 15
of its purchasing power a year you're
locking yourself in for 20 to 30 year
duration
by the time you get the cash back you're
gonna have lost 95
of your money so that's just foolish
but you've got growth right everybody
wants growth they'll take growth
discounting risk to zero they'll even
take the prospect
of growth right like if you just tell me
a story
and if i can't have growth then they'll
buy gamestop
because at least there's the potential
if i can't have growth i'll take
speculation of growth and if i can't
have speculation of growth
i'll just take speculation of a short
squeeze
all of those are more compelling than
anything
left in the fiat system yeah and i think
you know bitcoin becomes more and more
compelling
over time sure there'll definitely be
stocks and investing in stocks has us
placed but i think
for the store of value market that's
going to be distinct from money that you
want to risk on high growth
high risk stocks so the interesting
thing will be to see
how this develops now you've been saying
that you don't think bitcoin threatens
the dollar so you would you say that
bitcoin threatens treasuries but doesn't
threaten the dollar and therefore
you know we can continue to see maybe go
just more inflation in the dollar but
governments continue to evaluate
against bitcoin and continue to collect
taxes from bitcoin so bitcoin replaces
their treasuries puts them on a tight
leash
and has makes their inflation a little
bit more transparent but their dollar
continues to survive is that how you see
it
yeah i don't think it's very
constructive for the community to focus
upon bitcoin replacing the dollar it's
like
it's a crypto anarchist idea i could be
more supportive of
bitcoin replacing the zimbabwe dollar
or the venezuelan boulevard like
in a government where all the
institutions of government have broken
down
an utterly corrupt dysfunctional
government
where they they can't function anymore
and that's a hyper-inflationary
environment
i'm probably more supportive of that
right because there people are going to
starve to death
so there's billions of people in
collapsing economies where the currency
is collapsing
they're some kind of stable currency
it might be in a stable coin like the us
dollar
sitting on a crypto rail backed by
bitcoin
which might be what tether is or what
something is i think that that's
probably
got a value right i mean that's probably
got a place but
in the united states and in europe as
the fiat currency expands
it maintains its place as a medium of
exchange
and a lawful currency and as currency i
mean as legal currency
and it will and we should hope it will
because i don't think anybody wants
you know france or germany or the us
that look like zimbabwe
right i mean those are literally
countries where the rule of law
and the right to property break down
when the rule of law
and your right to freedom of speech or
the right to life liberty and property
break down you've got a situation of
true anarchy
and then uh i suppose if you're a crypto
anarchist and you support
reinstalling free speech and right to
property via crypto network
that's ethical right so i get that right
that makes sense but in a country that
has a rule of law
and a right to property the logical
thing that happens
is when people lose faith in the
currency they migrate the gold
when gold isn't fast enough but gold is
an antiquated
elitist asset right i mean the criticism
of gold that people should focus on is
that it's elitist
how do 500 million people buy 1700
worth of gold calculate what is the
markup
on 1700 worth of gold coins
purchased 87 at a time right i mean
isn't that like 40 percent
markup like like aren't you looking at i
mean you want
elitist is i'm gonna basically pay
double right i mean even
coins or coins are expensive if you want
to get gold
at a reasonable price you have to buy a
bar of london good delivery gold which
is 400 ounces at a time
that's eight hundred thousand dollar
blocks of gold and you probably have to
buy like five of them from jp
morgan to get traded anywhere close to
reasonably
right so gold is an is an elitist
store of value it is not accessible to
the billion people in in
the western world in western europe and
the us it's certainly not accessible to
the 7.8 billion people on the planet
and so if you're going to deliver a
store of value
to everybody with a mobile phone on
earth bitcoin is your best bet
bitcoin is going to be running
transaction fees of
you know less than one percent one two
percent would be high
you know like whatever it is it's going
to be
nothing compared to the cost to acquire
and store
and maneuver gold gold is elitist and
gold is antiquated
because i can't move 37
worth of gold you know from point a to
point b
to pay for an uber ride i can't fund
with gold
gold is not bankable gold is slow money
with bitcoin we're on the verge of a
world where
you know you'll have a trillion dollars
of bitcoin you can plug
a billion consumer accounts into it and
you can offer people the ability to
borrow against the bitcoin
at four percent interest by the way jp
morgan
offers you securitized loans up to loan
to value 50 percent
against conventional assets at libor
plus
50 basis points of your institutional
customer
you could get libor plus 200 basis
points
if you're a consumer so you're talking
about two percent interest
or three percent interest so in a world
where
a major bank were to plug into bitcoin
there's no reason why we couldn't get to
a point where
a billion people could borrow money
against bitcoin at two percent interest
and then never sell the bitcoin forever
i think in the next 36 months we'll see
five
percent four or five percent consumer
loans against bitcoin
when's the last time you got a loan
against gold no
you know and then we're on to this next
thing which is okay well right off gold
well
what's next well uh bond indexes
no so we we migrate to stock indexes
i think the free market in the western
world is inventing
asset classes to service stores of value
and they've been doing them legally and
ethically and
the government allows you to create
asset classes i mean
when a trillion dollars moved into the
vanguard 500 the s p
500 the government didn't block that
so i think that that the right way to
think of it is
bitcoin as a store of value asset class
as digital gold
growing to be 10 trillion dollars
and then 20 and then 40. the big model i
have
is a monetary planet and let's say the
monetary planet is 500 trillion dollars
it's a gaseous planet
the outside of it is a hundred trillion
dollars worth of m2
or m3 money currency derivatives and the
like euros dollars
and so that's currency that's moving
through
all the governments on earth and that's
going to continue as long as there are
governments on earth
then inside that is 400 trillion dollars
worth of
other assets and it's broken up between
real estate and collectibles and stocks
and credit
instruments and bonds and derivatives
350 trillion of the 400 trillion or
i don't know some maybe it's not that
maybe 200
trillion of the 400 trillion is what
i'll call
currency derivatives their value is
based
substantially or in part on the the
discounted value of the future cash
flows of the
asset so stocks valued on future cash
flows
real estate value commercial real estate
valued on future cash flows
and bonds valued on future cash flows
those are
our currency derivatives now inside that
is a higher quality set of assets i'm
going to call them
trophy assets collectible assets a beach
house in the hamptons
palm beach a picasso even a trophy
equity
to the extent that i brag about owning
disney because i own disney because i
love mickey mouse because mickey mouse
is part of my formative experiences
a trophy piece of debt it's a piece of
debt for the children's hospital in my
neighborhood because
they saved my kids life like something
that you would
hold and you would value because it's
part of your
self-identity a football team soccer
franchise
things that people love and they would
hold them
irregardless of the discounted of the
forecast of the discounted cash flows in
the future your personal home
right your personal home has value to
you your personal car your personal
yacht your personal plane
these things have value to you because
you love them
and there will be pride from your cold
dead fingers
and it doesn't matter what the interest
rate is it's your house
it's your lake house so that stuff is
more it's harder asset
and then in the middle of that is a 10
trillion dollar
hardcore of gold which we'll call
non-sovereign store of value
fungible money and inside that the
center of the earth is this
isn't this this burning red-hot thing at
the center of the earth
that's crypto there's a trillion dollar
crypto fire in the middle of the 500
trillion dollar planet and that
trillion dollar crypto fire was started
from a spark by satoshi
and it's burning and it went from a
billion to 10 billion to 100 billion to
a trillion
the bitcoin fire and that is
the hardest fastest smartest
strongest monetary asset
in the history of the of the human race
and it is
expanding and it is boiling
these things and it is boiling gold and
then the first thing it's going to do
is it's going to replace gold and gold
will collapse into the crypto fire
and then it will suck in sovereign
credit instruments uh negative yielding
sovereign debt
to the extent that that's held as a
store of value it will subsume
some debt indexes and some equity
indexes
and it'll probably expand from 10
trillion to 20 to 40
to 80 to 100 and it could get all the
way to say 200 trillion
and when it's 200 trillion it'll be the
stabilizing
framework and the gaseous monetary
planet
will go from 500 trillion up by 10
to 550 maybe it's plus 15
a year right if it's plus 15 a year your
500 trillion dollar monetary planet will
expand
to become an 8 900 trillion dollar
what's after a trillion is a quad blood
quadrillion we're headed toward a
quadrillion
a quad planet and the bitcoin will
expand it
it's at 300 250 300 a year for the last
decade and that's about as fast as it
can
go because anything faster than that you
know
rips the wings off the airplane human
beings
people ask how fast can human beings
accept change
i think if you look at the history of
business
companies growing faster than 200 a year
are rare
i mean that's pretty much as fast as it
can go so it'll go 200 percent
and it'll track that way and i think at
some point when it
when it crosses gold it'll slow down to
150 percent
and 120 percent you could probably work
it out
over the next 20 years as it goes from a
trillion
up to 200 trillion might take 30 years
might take 20 years might take 10 years
somewhere between 10 and 30 years right
if you look at the rate and and where
we're headed is
a world where there's eight billion
people on the planet with a mobile phone
and those eight billion people are
storing value
in digital gold and probably that mobile
device
is gonna have a hardware wallet embedded
in it that's going to be
the the token and you'll have
multi-signature
multi-hardware wallets securing
digital gold which has become i don't
know what is it going to be a third or
half
you have to ask the question
theoretically sefedeen
what portion of the monetary planet
should rationally be store of value
and i think it i think it's it's
self-equivalate
because as more monetary energy
it's like magnetism you're demagnetizing
something you're demonetizing something
as more monetary energy falls off of
gold and off of silver and then off of
indexes
into into bitcoin price discovery
will return to these other assets so
price discovery is going to return to
gold it's going to approach its
ornamental
and antique value and the price
discovery will return to silver
and price discovery will return to
stocks and bonds
what you can assume is that in a free
market
price discovery will return the bond
prices will fall the yields will
increase
real estate prices will fall the yields
will increase for commercial real estate
you will see stock prices fall dividend
yields and yields will increase
everything will rationalize in a free
market
market dynamics conventional you know
market theory
dictates that no asset can be any more
attractive than any other asset in a
free market
because capital will flow and migrate so
as to equalize the expected return
on all assets now what you're going to
see is
is certain markets become not free
right i mean the the way you break that
is you pass laws
and they'll be you know in the extreme
cases they'll be what you're seeing
going on in india right now
what you saw in china makes it
impossible to
uh to convert room mb into bitcoin and
india is threatened by it nigeria's
threatened by it
you're gonna see back and forth and and
you'll see
some countries will embrace it and other
countries will
run from it but you know the chinese
made google illegal
twitter's illegal facebook's illegal
right that's gonna happen and it didn't
stop them from being successful other
places
i think you'll probably see the western
world will embrace
digital gold i think you'll see banana
republics
corrupt regimes attempt to resist it
on the other hand you know i've traveled
all through china and
everybody's got a vpn and they're
looking at twitter and facebook accounts
with vpns
it's really difficult and there's can
they actually stop it
not really right i mean they can't stop
it they can
they actually have a hard time stopping
money traveling on crypto rails
over vpns and the tor network on the
other hand
will they suffer from it yeah there's a
big cost
to not have google i mean there's a big
cost to not have
youtube right there's a big cost not of
electricity
right there's there's cost to reject
technology
if your money moves a million times
faster then that means the cost of
capital for
the world that embraces the technology
drops
and that means that innovation
accelerates and
you can cling to your gold coins and
your giant stone
coins of the app people and the whatever
but it
at some point there's a cost of not
having google maps man try
yeah cars that don't drive themself
you know yeah there's there's a cost and
eventually
reflects itself in the cuba standard of
living or the north korean standard of
living and even the chinese can't
necessarily stop this thing so bottom
line is
i think the the fiat system is going to
continue as a
currency and it should right the
currency rails work fine
what people still haven't got through
their head is i could have
150 percent of my
assets in bitcoin all right
you can have a million dollars you can
buy a million in bitcoin you can
mortgage your house buy another 500 000
in bitcoin you could take out a personal
loan against your future earnings if
you're a doctor buy another 500 bitcoin
if it was me i'd i'd mortgage my house
i'd sell my gold
and i would raise debt and i would buy
bitcoin
you can have a hundred percent of your
assets in bitcoin
get a bank that will give you a loan
against bitcoin
if bitcoin is going up at 25 a year
and if your expenses are going up at
five percent a year
you can borrow money to pay for your
coffee and to pay your rent and to drive
your car
and to live your life forever never pay
it back
keep the bitcoin and your debt to equity
ratio will fall and so
at some point you could literally fund
everything in
bitcoin and so you don't need to replace
the dollars my point
you don't really want to spend bitcoin
what you want to do
is you want to plug your bitcoin account
into
a visa card and you want to pay for
things with visa
and you want to run up a debt and you
never want to pay it off
and you want to die owing money
because it's not that complicated
you have a million dollars and it
doubles every year you eventually have a
hundred million dollars you can spend
a hundred thousand dollars a year going
up at twenty percent a year
or you can spend a hundred thousand
going up at 50 percent a year
and you will die with 90 million dollars
of equity 10 million dollars in debt
never having paid tax
why and so and you don't need to replace
the euro
you don't need to replace the dollar you
don't need to get rid of your visa card
right those things don't matter yeah i
think another another argument in favor
of this is the fact that
um maybe bitcoin is actually reducing
the demand for the creation of dollars
and euros because
if people don't buy as many treasuries
as they do
then fewer dollars are created people
don't get into as much debt
than fewer dollars are creating so
people are holding bitcoin instead of
holding
debt instruments on their balance sheet
then less
debt takes place and as the key concept
in the fiat standard is that fiat is
debt
so basically bitcoin reduces the demand
and the supply for
fiat but i guess it's it's you know
unfortunate it's not a choice we get to
make it's a
it's an outcome of markets so the
question is can the dollar hold on and
can the people
um printing the dollar manage to
maintain the bitcoin store i guess
that's
uh that's what we'll see but um there
are there are reasons why
we can see bitcoin continue to grow
without the dollar having to collapse
i've got another question for you
and switching gears a little bit you've
uh waltzed into the bitcoin world at a
very very good time you know you came in
at what it was at seven or eight or nine
thousand and you know within a couple of
weeks
we are now almost 50 to 47 i think right
now
um obviously part of that is probably
you and the impact that you have had
and all the evangelism that you've done
but also you know we've
we've had periods in bitcoin before
where prices have
declined for quite a while so you know
if if this was high school you know you
would be signing up for high school the
week of the prom and the graduation you
you didn't sit with us through the
dark days of you know holding the buying
the one thousand dollar top and watching
it go down to 150
over two years so i'm wondering you know
you went in
at a time when this was a possibility we
could have had another two years you
know
you may have chanced upon the bitcoin
in 2018 and bitcoin hasn't changed much
between 2018 and 2020
but if you bought in march 2018 you know
you would have
uh witnessed the decline for quite a
while
so i'm wondering was your entry
you know where are you just thinking all
right this is this is now
this is better technology i'm just going
to be buying as much as i can
or was there some kind of price analysis
going on in a sense so
we've consolidated for a while so most
likely we're going to be getting another
um jump would you have bought as
aggressively in 2018
and do you follow any particular models
for thinking of the price
so say if i first of all it's better to
be lucky than good
absolutely and i would say to you i'm
very lucky
then i look back at my life i've i can i
can count all sorts of
fortunate uh occurrences so i'm lucky
second
i think the best time in human history
to buy bitcoin
was starting in march of 2020.
right if you want to look at this entire
thing starting in march of 2020 the
world
changed forever that was the risk reward
point
where the risk had diminished by 99
and the return and the use case at amp
by a factor of 100.
like it was an inflection point in march
of 2020.
look i wouldn't have bought it at all in
february of 2020. i didn't know it
existed i didn't really
care think about it the world was
totally different
in february versus in april so
i think march is the beginning of the
new era
i think the people in the bitcoin
industry i think that they're
to a certain degree they're biased by
their history
and it's a liability for them i think
it's baggage
that they should lose i think most
people in the bitcoin industry
and most people in business most people
in life they want to draw on their
experience
because there's a bias that i i want to
make decisions based on my experience
and i want to feel that everything that
i experienced was worthwhile
and if i felt pain i would like for it
to have meant something
right so what if i looked at you and i
said safe like nothing that you
experienced between 2010 and 2020 was
relevant
and you could basically flush it all
down a toilet and take a clean sheet of
paper and start again
that doesn't feel good right like
psychologically it's hard
to let go of that but let me give you an
example
of inflection point for 10 years before
march we had tried to use video
conferencing and i used webex
and my experiences were uniformly awful
for the entire 10 years
i could probably write a book on all of
the bad meetings and all of the awful
dysfunctional business results that came
from that
and i fired people that wanted to use
video conferencing and wanted to work
remotely the previous year
okay and i had lots of experience and
then in march
we decided to use zoom and zoom was a
hundred times better
and i had only good experiences and the
truth of the matter is
the entire decade of experience i had
with video conferencing was of no value
whatsoever it actually just
saddled me with a prejudicial bias
because i had
i had scars and i had pain
and it's all irrelevant okay so
after march everybody on earth needed
bitcoin a thousand companies you heard
russ last week he said i had 20 clients
at the beginning of the year i had 280
institutional clients at the end of the
year
i have 90 in the pipeline now russell
have a thousand
clients he'll go from 20 to a thousand
all of his experience before march all
of your forecasts before
march irrelevant it's what i said to
keith mccullough all your models
destroyed why are they destroyed because
they're based
uh they're based upon the statistical
interaction
a tidal wave hits the beach
okay i drop a bomb on your head
your entire history living in the town
or playing on the beach
irrelevant irrelevant you want it to
matter
it doesn't matter right when a hundred
trillion dollars of capital
comes through a nozzle it doesn't matter
like if you took every trade of bitcoin
from the point that satoshi did the
whatever and the pizza transfer
took place all the way through you know
the blow off top
all of it is irrelevant
let me explain it a different way if
elon musk
woke up tomorrow and decided screw it
i'm buying 10 billion dollars of bitcoin
instead of one and a half billion
dollars of bitcoin
that one decision renders irrelevant
all of the studying of bitcoin's
trajectory between today
and march last march
one person one thing makes a difference
and likewise march rendered irrelevant
the statistical models in the history
before
what's going on right now is on february
8th
on monday the day that you woke up if
you read the news
the world changed again you have to keep
redoing your models the human race right
i mean
read paleo theory we ran around getting
chased by wolves and apes for three or
four million years and
starving to death life was difficult
and 10 000 years ago we invented
agriculture life changed again
100 years ago life changed again the
life of a human being today
the challenges the dynamic how many
children get up
and worry you know worry about getting
eaten
by a wild animal today
right it's like it's irrelevant right
that the history of the human race
is irrelevant to a decision
like you're going to get in a car and
drive the car you can kill yourself in
three seconds
what matters is you're in the freaking
car
when you engineer a new system it
completely renders
irrelevant your history if i take a gun
and i point it at your head and there's
a bullet in it
nothing in the world that you've lived
through matters
other than can you get me to not pull
the trigger
everything else is irrelevant and so
engineering
machines and and and when your
circumstances change
when you're skiing down the ski slope
and there's an avalanche
all your skill as a skier rendered
irrelevant
all your skills are human being europe
it's back to this issue of the guy that
was the chairman of hna he was the
richest man in china worth 30 billion
dollars
two years ago he went hiking
in the south of france stood on a rock
wall
had a selfie taken tripped and fell
to his death all of his money
all of his models all of his lawyers
87 million freaking people in china
irrelevant
in one second he broke the law of
gravity and he died
the point here is bitcoin has moved into
a different
zone a phase shift it was in one phase
from 2010 to 2015
and went through another phase 2015 to
2018
when bitcoin pulled ahead after the fork
wars
and moved into a different phase you
know and then in 2020 it moved into a
different
phase and at the point the publicly
traded companies started buying it and
institutions started buying it
and mainstream media started coping with
it
when the senator got elected you know
the mayor of miami beat
cynthia senator cynthia lummus when
these things happen when gary gensler
takes takes his role at the sec
you're in a different phase and so
you have to recalibrate all your models
based upon a whole new set of
assumptions
and it's like i took the spear out of
your hand i gave you a bow and arrow
the human race change i take your bow
and arrow your hand i gave you a
gun i take the gun out of your hand and
i give you
a bomb as i change the engineering
the outlook changes and you cannot draw
on your history anymore you have to
think differently
well i mean i i obviously agree with a
lot of that but let me push back a
little bit in the sense that
you know bitcoin has not changed it's
been doing one lock every 10 minutes for
the past 12 years throughout all of
these phases
and bitcoin's volatility and market
dynamics have not changed much
we've gotten these big bull runs after
the havings every single time
so far it's extraordinary what has
happened in bitcoin
over the last year but it isn't
extraordinary by the standards of
bitcoin it's happened before
so the question is will this time be
different do you think
have we moved into something
fundamentally different after 2020 or we
still
will we still see a market cycle similar
to what we had before
but by the way bitcoin hasn't changed
but
all of the ecosystem
around bitcoin has changed radically
for example bitcoin is not just the
underlying blockchain bitcoin is the
banks that are plugged into bitcoin so
fidelity is a bitcoin bank coinbase is a
bitcoin bank
binance didn't exist four years ago it's
a bitcoin bank
the cme is a bitcoin bank paypal and
square are bitcoin banks
microstrategy and grayscale are bitcoin
banks
those are radically different things
probably paypal and square will between
the two of them
they will sell bitcoin to what do you
think 20 30 million people this year
the holders of bitcoin have changed the
investment community have changed the
narrative has changed
the use case has changed the way the
people buy it has
changed and the technology to buy it for
example
i buy 200 million dollars of it i do
with 88 000 transactions every three
seconds buying bitcoin two thousand
dollars a second
and by i buy it to hold it forever
that's
change look at all the bitcoin the
greyscale bought
it's locked up in a trust do you know
how that will be sold
not sure no tell me how this is a good
question for anybody on the call how do
you think that's ever going to be sold
yeah i can't see it getting sold i see
them just accumulating
it's actually more extreme than that it
is impossible to sell it
safely there is no mechanism to sell it
the construction of the trust is such
that when the money flows into the trust
they buy bitcoin
there are gbtc shares that are issued
those shares can be sold and the price
of the shares the derivatives can go
down
the underlying bitcoin can never be sold
per the charter ever ever
so you see there are fundamental
different things that are going on they
last i checked they had 30 billion
dollars of bitcoin
that's 30 billion dollars of bitcoin
that can't
be sold okay
held by institutions a very very
different world so these are sources of
inertia
falling into bitcoin and by the
volatility is not the same
like if you look at the drawdowns
they're not the same like when
when bitcoin ran up to 40 000 it traded
back down to 30 000
that was the 25
retracement not an 80 retracement
so you think the days of 80 retracements
are over
yes i do let me say a different way
if you're a boy scout and you're
shivering in the freezing cold and
you're attempting to start a fire for
the first time
you recall how difficult it is to start
a fire and then you recall going to
sleep without a fire and then maybe your
friend froze to death and you're
mortified by it
but then one day you grow up and you
have a furnace in your house
or maybe you plug into someone else's
electrical system and you have
electrical heater
you're not a boy scout anymore right
it's a totally different world
and the system the network is much more
mature
it's just much better engineered there's
much more monetary energy
in it there's much more inertia
i mean ultimately there's massive
amounts of monetary inertia
in this system like an air compressor
we're compressing energy in a monetary
battery
and it's accelerating if you look at the
rate at which energy is flowing
into it and as that energy flows
it's stabilizing so the more monetary
energy flowing in the system the more
stable it is the more inertia it is the
more difficult it is to change the
direction
and the less volatility it has and i
think that you're going to continue to
see that
as the as these banks evolve
it's very clear to me ever since march i
can
you can literally see the volatility
and the instability in the entire
network
uh being damped by rational actors
let me give you my counter case i think
ultimately uh as
the more money comes into bitcoin the
more the price goes up
the problem there is that you start
getting more and more bitcoin minted so
effectively bitcoin becomes more
inflationary as the price rises and i
think
it this might be why the having dynamic
always will have a
big rise but also a crash because over
the past four years in the previous
halving period we had four years in
which we were making on average
seven thousand dollars worth of bitcoin
a day uh sorry
uh one thousand eight hundred uh
bitcoins worth on average seven or eight
nine thousand
dollars so you had about 14 million
dollars a day of new bitcoins being
produced
so for the price to hold around that
level we had to have around 14 million
dollars of new demand a day
now there's only so much more the demand
can increase there
will come a point in which the you know
the demand goes up
and so the price goes up and then the
price of the new coins that are being
mined is also going up massively
and so then the new supply becomes
bigger than
the demand the demand can't keep up with
the supply and we witness an inflection
because there's also a lot of leverage
a lot of people that are leveraged in so
they get wiped out and then the dynamic
the the technicals of the chart turn and
then we could have another big drawdown
what do you think
i'm not really a big believer in
the havings as being a driver going
forward
again i i think that all of these models
are mental models that were formed in
the early years and i think that you
should throw them all out
and you should start to reason from
first principles and build a new model
for example i'm staring at the screen of
binance right now
the 24 hour volume of btc is 93
000 coins on binance
if you double it that means there's
probably 180 000
coins traded today 900 bitcoin is
irrelevant
the amount of bitcoin being created is
so de minimis
compared to the volume of the trading
it's irrelevant
and also i think it's here it's
irrelevant to any rational investor
it's just irrelevant to me for example
there's 21 million fully diluted
bitcoins
done end of story like i don't care at
what rate they get printed because
again what's the ratio of 93 000 to 90
a 900 the amount of bitcoin getting
mined is
50 basis points it's half of a percent
like when we're doing a trade we pay
half a percent as the uh
fee like people with serious amounts of
money
they're going to blow through this they
don't care what matters a lot more
than all of these concerns about you
know
the having is if paul tudor jones wakes
up and decides to double his allocation
from one percent to two percent
or from two to four that matters more
than
all of these other things because
because the demand
is excessive so the i think a better way
to look at it
is it's emerging as an asset class like
the s
p 500 index and when it gets to be
10 trillion dollars or 5 trillion or 3
trillion it's like the index
there's so much money coming in and
going out of it that it's stabilizing
the index
and it takes it takes a if you've got a
10 trillion dollar asset class like gold
it would take a trillion dollars why do
you think i didn't buy gold
is because i said well it's going to
take 20 trillion dollars to drive gold
up by a factor of 10.
how much does it really take right i
mean if you have a trillion dollar
asset class then a trillion dollars will
probably drive it up by a factor of 10.
like if you double the demand maybe more
but if you've got a 10 trillion dollar
asset class 10 a trillion dollars drives
it up by a factor of
two maybe or or 50
so as as it gets more monetary energy
the inertial component
gets greater the liquidity gets greater
i really think for institutional
investors
the having it just doesn't matter
anymore the dynamic that matters is
another example if dan shulman wakes up
tomorrow and says
i think i should put bitcoin on paypal's
balance sheet
dan shulman has a 300 billion dollar
company he could put 10 billion dollars
of bitcoin on the balance sheet
when coinbase comes public they might be
worth 100 billion dollars
if the ceo of coinbase decides to put
bitcoin on their balance sheet he put a
billion on the balance sheet
2 billion 3 billion the decisions of
individuals ray dalio is giving a speech
a consensus
radar's got 150 billion dollars of
assets under management
if he decides that bitcoin is 25 as good
as gold
won't they buy like 10 billion dollars
of it ray dalio brian armstrong
dan shulman right individuals
there's probably ten thousand people in
the world
that have the ability to put a billion
dollars on that network
ten thousand and the and and there's 1
000 or 2 000 have to
put 10 billion on the network again
every model that you have
and all the history that we have is all
irrelevant if any of them act
the actors the actions that get taken
place
obsolesce and they overwhelm
any statistical models because the
statistical models are based upon
like if you told me for example
in 2018 you have a bunch of bitcoin
and crypto traders that are trading with
leverage that have no banks that can't
borrow money against their bitcoin okay
those people have a very short time
preference safety and you're the time
guy right
the people that have the shortest time
preference i've found are
are um crypto traders i mean they're
thinking about whether or not it's
trading down in the next
eight hours right so when i ask people
why don't you put 100
of your assets into bitcoin they say
well i need money to live on well why
don't you just borrow money
who's going to loan me money block fi
oh block fight they charge 12 8 10
right so there's a very embryonic
industry right now
the consumer banking industry that's
banking bitcoin
by the way name five companies that'll
give you a hundred million dollar loan
against bitcoin
name five can you no
no it's embryonic i can name five that
will give me a hundred million dollar
loan against apple stock
citigroup jp morgan bank of america
wells fargo morgan stanley
everybody okay and here's my point
bitcoin doesn't need to change
what's changing is the banks the banks
are changing
nida will give you a loan genesis will
give you a loan
when coinbase will give you a loan
finance is rolling out some credit
products
paypal won't give you a loan yet but
what happens when paypal gives 340
million people
alone at four percent interest against
bitcoin
what happens to bitcoin well time
horizon stretch out now i can own it for
30 years oh you mean i don't have to
sell my bitcoin to buy my lamborghini
if you actually believe bitcoins going
up by a factor of two every two years
you're an
idiot to sell your bitcoin to buy your
lamborghini the lamborghini is going to
cost you a hundred million dollars
why don't you borrow the money to buy
the lamborghini and keep the bitcoin
well i'm afraid i'm afraid of what i'm
afraid it's going to crash down by 80
percent
why well because it did once before okay
so you see the circular reasoning which
is i lived in a world of crypto traders
on leverage with no banking with no
institutional support
and so i act it's just like your time
preference
i'm afraid to plan for the future
because i don't trust the money
okay a lot of people in their head they
think bitcoin is volatile i don't trust
it i won't be
or i won't be able to borrow against it
and that becomes a self-fulfilling
prophecy
and by there's only a certain amount of
rate at which you can change people's
perceptions right
it takes three four five six years
as the hodlers discover that they can
borrow money against bitcoin
and as the institutions come in by what
what's warren buffett's favorite famous
quote
we find a company we like our preferred
holding period is forever
is warren buffett still owning coca-cola
stock
yes did he sell it to buy a lamborghini
no
did he need to no why because he could
have barred against it
yeah what's the impact on coke stock
it's not so volatile
right because he's a hodler so this is
not a
it's not uncommon idea how long are
institutions that hold gold how long
have they been holding gold
like forever like what happens if you
replace gold with digital gold you hold
it for 50 years
by i don't think you're gonna be able to
buy bitcoin bitcoin below twenty
thousand gone forever
bitcoin below thirty thousand probably
gone forever bitcoin below forty
thousand
probably gone forever bitcoin in the in
the forty to fifty 000 range
who do you think selling this stuff the
weak hands
the with high leverage are selling it
who do you think is buying it
institutions that have more money than
god
that have a thousand times as much money
as they're buying with this stuff
and which ones the first one percent
just the early vanguard
so as this happens the institutions
take ownership their time horizon is a
decade
the banks come online that means we
never need to
sell it ever i mean all these guys on
crypto twitter go well what are you
gonna do if you ever need money the
answer is i'm never gonna need money
like right i'm
i'm institutions never need money
right if i ever wanted a little bit of
cash i could just borrow a little bit
but the truth of the matter is
the people buying this stuff are
endowments harvard endowment yale
endowment right i mean
so it's a different set of holders it's
a different banking relationship
it's going to be more diffuse as it's
more diffused the volatility
falls there's you're going to have the
stories of ruffin
safety ruffin bought 750 million dollars
of bitcoin
below 20 000 when it traded to 40 000.
they took half off the table so they
took a 750 million dollar profit
that's why it didn't trade up beyond 40
000. so then it traded down to 31 000
they might have bought back in safe you
know like those guys
the big institutions you know they're
going to be damping it on the upside
on the downside and collaring it and uh
this will continue for a while so it's a
different
dynamic because of the players and the
capital
and the banks and uh and
the security and it's going to continue
to evolve
and the risk profiles and perceptions
will evolve
yeah and i think also the i think the
the the um the best argument
uh against this is just yeah maybe the
mining just becomes completely
inconsequential compared to the daily
volume and then
in that case it doesn't even matter if
it's uh
look i would say it's already
inconsequential
yeah like i think it's already
inconsequential i think that
i think the only people clinging to that
are people that like to talk about
minors i mean
i don't think the miners can move the
market one way or the other let me make
one more point
as the miners come public they have
publicly traded stocks
it's irrational for them to ever sell
bitcoin what marathon just did they
bought bitcoin
if you can raise equity or raise debt in
the public market the miners might stop
selling it because isn't it the
stupidest thing you could pos
who goes in the mining business thinking
bitcoin is going down in price right
nobody so why would you sell something
going up in price by a hundred or two
hundred percent a year
you wouldn't what happens safedean if
all the miners come public
and they stop selling
yeah i mean it's like new extra demand
it's it's it's uh supercharged demand
because it buys at the source and let me
reverse it a different way
what happens if the miners stop selling
and start buying
marathon raised 200 million dollars in
equity and bought 150 million in bitcoin
okay it's
so my point here really is there's other
dynamics
it's possible that you could have 10
miners come public they all raise
25 billion dollars they just all buy and
then they mine bitcoin and keep
and now what happens if i reverse the
polarity in the entire situation the
having doesn't matter
right there's other things that matter
right at the end of the day
what's nine a thousand bitcoin at forty
thousand dollars what's that net you 40
million a
a day or something 40 million dollars of
capital a day
is irrelevant compared to 100
purchasing a day it wouldn't be
irrelevant at 400 000
bitcoin at 400 000 bitcoin that's 400
million dollars of new business it'll
still be irrelevant
because the the trading of the rest of
the marketplace is going to be 100x more
than that
well it currently i think daniel just
posted a screenshot
saying that current daily trading volume
is about 15 billion so currently
it's at 3 so price goes up 10
then mining is 30 percent of the market
and if the market stays constantly at
around 15 billion
uh so three percent now but if the price
goes up tenfold if it's at 480
000 then you know you you're doing about
half a billion dollars of new bitcoin
being minted every day
which is a lot of money actually it's
not three percent safe it's 30 basis
points
like that's that's what i get 900 coins
isn't it 900 a day times 48 000.
you guys can check it that gives me 43
million dollars a day
yeah 43 divided by 15 billion that's i
see you see it's like it's not even a
percent it's like a fraction of a
percent
it's like point it's 25 basis points
right now
and my point again is it's 25 basis
points
what's the most profitable investment
you can hold on your treasury
bitcoin right yes
tell me a miner that that doesn't
believe in bitcoin
the stupidest thing you can do is sell
your bitcoin
don't sell your bitcoin okay so
what's gonna happen i actually think
you're gonna see the polarity flip
on this i think that as miners come
public like riot and
and marathon i think they're gonna think
about it and they're going to realize
that
they should just keep mining but stop
selling
have you looked at marathon stock it hit
40
today it more than doubled since they
bought bitcoin on their balance sheet
safe
in two weeks you know what the market's
telling you
the market's telling you that pretty
much they will finance you
with a premium to hold the bitcoin
because they like the bitcoin
so what that means is that in theory a
publicly traded
mining company can raise unlimited
equity
or debt and never sell
so so it's not that big a deal now but
the point really is
there are other dynamics here and they
could flip the polarity
what happens if 10 billion dollars comes
from the public markets into the bitcoin
market
because these miners i think marathon's
got a 3 billion market cap
riot's got a 3 billion market cap what
happens if they double
and they issue debt or issue equity and
my voice
all your models are destroyed humility
here
is there's a lot of people that can that
can tip
the apple cart here so if you construct
this model based upon the past
you're dismissing the actions of
rational actors
it's rational for a minor to buy bitcoin
not
sell bitcoin it's rational for a miner
to go public
it's rational for square or paypal to
buy more bitcoin
they might not by the way it's
irrational not to
they might not because of volatility how
do you how do you convince your
customers they should buy bitcoin with
your app when you're afraid to buy it
on your balance sheet right isn't there
a little bit of a a marketing hazard
there
so there's rational actors with
capital they can move this bitcoin
and they can change the volatility and
they can drive it very very hard
and the only thing that keeps them from
doing it is getting up in the morning
and deciding they'll take a risk
if you basically bet that nobody will
act rationally and nobody will take a
risk
then you can run your historical models
but if i can break your model if i break
your model of action right
yeah then you probably ought to have a
more open-ended view of the world a
different model
i look at and i say everybody on earth
with money should buy this stuff and all
7.8 billion people need it
and it's only distributed to 0.1 percent
of the market what's wrong with this
picture
at some point someone is going to decide
to do the rational thing and by the way
arguably they're doing it now right if
the price is going up 300
a year that seems to me to be rational
risk takers acting about as fast as they
can reasonably act right
without you know going through the sound
barrier
you go through a sound barrier there's a
shock wave and
you rip the wings off the airplane we're
kind of pushing up against the sound
barrier
the rate at which what's the fastest an
asset class can
can take on monetary energy without
burning itself up
this might be close to the fastest
because it's accelerating isn't it i
mean weren't we growing like
i haven't seen the numbers someone
should calculate the annualized
yield but i thought it was 230 percent
irr or something
for the last five to ten years the
average growth rate per year was about
200 for the first 10 years
and it's accelerated this year well yeah
but i mean
it it always goes through those um
cycles so far with
fast and then slow and with variability
so we are we were due for a very fast
year this year
anyway now look i mean as an austrian
economist i'm
always exactly on the same page with you
on the fact that it is the actions of
humans that determines economic outcomes
and not
statistical models and constructs but
this year we've been fascinated a little
bit with the stock to flow model and
it's um
it drives me to think that there might
be something mechanical about the way
that
the difficulty adjustment and mining
determine how people
determine how the price moves just
because there's a limit on how much the
price can go up
over time i think i i don't think the
stock to flow model really can explain
what's going on here
because as i said i immediately
assumed it was 21 million diluted
bitcoin and that's what i made my
decision based on
and i assumed that stock to flow is
infinite and i think that a stock to
flow doesn't take into account
the actions of the fiat central banks to
inflate the currency and clearly if
there was zero inflation versus
400 percent inflation that's a factor
you know zimbabwe inflation rates are
different than the u.s and the us is
radically different than a year ago
so i think you've got to take into
account in monetary policy and i think
you've got to take into account
technology
stock to flow doesn't take into account
what happens if tim cook decides to
build bitcoin into the apple
watch and the apple phone those actions
and technology
they have an impact in doing it sooner
rather than later
we'll do it and i know for a fact there
are 10 people in the world
all they would have to do is put out a
press release and they would move the
price of
bitcoin and so the technology adoption
and the monetary policy all those things
they have a massive impact on what
happens yet and they're not really part
of the stock to flow
no they aren't but i mean the the and
and rationally this is why you would
expect the model to break down
and yet it doesn't and that's really the
mind-blowing thing as far as i'm
concerned and i think
you know um it might sound
uh funny to say it but the model would
have expected a big squeeze
after the having and so you know that's
needed people like you and mass mutual
to show up and you know
carry the banner after we've done the
light lifting we need you guys to
do the heavy lifting taking us to 100k
and i think yeah 2025 is when we expect
people like uh
apple to be building their entire
company around something like bitcoin
it's a little maybe too early for them
to start now but i think
maybe by 2025 they'll be sold and
they'll be convinced then that's what's
going to take us further so
maybe you know the trend undeniably is
not going to go up but what the model
shows is that
that number going up happens and spurts
after the having and then there's a bit
of a calm down and consolidation after
it that it follows this market pattern
so
it seems to be holding up now and that
that for me
and which is really sacrilegious as an
australian economist to be saying this
but it suggests that
maybe there is something about the way
that the network works that is
forcing this and in fact if you read
mises what mises says is
the reason you can't perform economic
calculation and make scientific
predictions in economics
is that economics does not have a
constant there is no constant
in economics in physics and chemistry
and math and all those things
you go back to well not in math and
physics and chemistry you go back to a
physical constant
that is a you know uh inter
personally determined and easy to
uncertain and all of them
go back to the constants of nature
eventually and so based on that you're
able to make scientific relationship and
devise them and it seems to me that
maybe
bitcoin what the stock to flow model is
showing us the ability to perform
calculation
with the human action for the first time
with this kind of accuracy
maybe 21 million is bitcoin is economics
is first constant
well i agree 21 million is an important
constant kelly's asking
what do you think in terms of second and
third order effects that you look
forward to on
the new post march 20 paradigm
well i think one effect is like the
first 10 years stock to flow
uh and and bitcoin miners selling
bitcoin
bootstrapped the network i think we'll
see an inversion it's possible that all
the bitcoin miners
come public and they stop selling any
bitcoin
and they start and they become banks of
their own they start issuing equity and
debt to finance the network
and you could actually see a reverse
polarity there as bitcoin crashes into
institutions that are publicly
financiable
i think the dynamic changes quite a lot
because
they have different options to access
liquidity so
it's a different network when it's uh
individuals that are unbanked
that are in the cash business than it is
when it's institutions that are very
very well banked and well financed
i think uh you know the the network is
is
moving toward the point where it's just
all transaction based and
i think uh the transaction block sizes
get larger and transaction fees will go
up and the network will settle into some
equilibrium there
as well okay how do you
come to your conclusion about bitcoin's
total addressable market
i just take all the money in the world
and i figure about
half of it needs to be allocated to
actual collectibles
trophies if you look at the typical
person everybody owns a set of things
their house their car their boat their
trophy assets
you know that they're going to keep and
those will have monetary value imbued in
them those the goods and
and services or goods and products and
whatever and then there's another
chunk which is just the treasury
everybody's got a natural treasury
and that's capital saved up for the
future against uncertainty
i think it's natural that bitcoin will
just continually
absorb that treasury energy from
endowments from corporations from
individuals and
my estimate is it feels like it's about
half
half of everything should be treasury
and the other half is
tangible property you can estimate it by
counting the volume of gold
and the total amount in sovereign debt
half of sovereign debt maybe you want to
give a loan to your government because
you love the government but
you know my experience is that 90 of the
money invested in sovereign debt wasn't
because we loved the government it was a
store of value
and if you look at the s p i think
people invest in the s p because they
didn't have confidence in their ability
to pick stocks
they wanted to store a value so i think
if you added up all the store
value asset classes you'll probably find
yourself getting to a 200 trillion
dollar number
you know plus or minus against four or
500 trillion
depending on how you calculate it so you
kind of conclude it's like 40 or 50
and it's kind of common sense right half
of your money is
you want to save as a fungible asset and
the other half
you invest in things you love or things
you believe and you take risk on
companies and the like i think that was
pretty obvious back in the day when
savings accounts
existed it's just that savings accounts
have been destroyed
and so now half people are saving in the
stock market
yeah all right i guess the final
question that i wanted to ask you is
when are we going to turn you into a
carnivore
how have you not become a carnivore yet
or are you a carnivore i'm a big paleo
theorist so i'm you know long before
i discovered bitcoin i was a paleo
enthusiast and i
and i think that a lot of stuff that
comes out of
out of uh thinking about how paleolithic
man lived
for three million years i think is
really useful health advice
what did your forebearers eat and how
did they live a hundred thousand years
ago
i think it's helpful it's helpful in
your fitness routines and your
and your eating routines i think that a
hundred thousand or two hundred thousand
years ago people ate
lean proteins and they eat they ate
low sugar content maybe nuts and
they didn't eat sugar-laden fruits and
they probably didn't eat
uh highly engineered modern foods they
certainly don't need any processed food
so my view is i am pretty much a
carnivore i'm
i ate a lot of steak i eat a lot of
chicken uh but
uh and fish but uh i think that
vegetables and nuts are okay
i think the keto diet is a pretty good
diet i i understand the salisbury diet
and i studied that and
i think that in the event that you have
autoimmune diseases or inflammation or
rheumatoid arthritis i've seen
that that's been very effective and so i
can imagine living off of all
meat but i think it's equally reasonable
if you're coming up with a theory of
health
i think if you start with the question
how did human beings live
for three million years before the
modern agricultural
age and you model your lifestyle based
upon that
i think that's consistent with the
healthiest lifestyle and your
conclusions are you're probably not
going to drink orange juice you're not
going to drink
cartons of vodka you're not going to
consume processed foods you're not going
to sit in a chair all day long you're
probably not afraid to be out in the sun
you should probably do vigorous activity
and you should probably eat lean healthy
proteins and
yeah well i'll just tell you the the
case for carnivore is ultimately that
if you try it you'll see that the
difference going from
standard american diet to keto is almost
comparable to the difference of going
from keto to pure carnivore just getting
rid of all plant matter and
you know your body's made out of red
meat and if you just eat red meat your
body has and digestive system will have
an enormously
easy time with it so i started drinking
some cola there
um i think if you ate a lot more beef
you would need fewer snacks and fewer
pick-me-ups and fewer caffeine things so
i we we have to get you to join us on
the carnivore train as well okay
i take it under advisement thank you
thank you thank you so much michael for
joining us this was absolutely
mind-blowing and fascinating and lots to
chew over
and thank you so much for your time i
really truly appreciate it
okay you too thanks everybody for uh
hanging out with us cheers thank you
appreciate it
bye