SaylorCorpus

Michael Saylor on The Fiat Standard | The Bitcoin Standard Podcast | (Audio only)| 16 February 2021

Bitcoin Standard · 2021-02-21 · 2h 13m · View on YouTube →

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hello welcome to another meeting of the

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michael sailor appreciation society

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our special guest today is michael

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saylor himself

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fresh from the bitcoin form for

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corporations conference

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in which he promoted bitcoin to

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corporate america

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in very very strong uh made a very

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strong

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case for bitcoin why it matters for

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corporations and why it matters for

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corporate

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balance sheets we've had michael on

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before and we spoke

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about his ideas on bitcoin and his ideas

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inflation and cost of living and he's

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been an absolute

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thunderball of inspiration and powerful

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ideas

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since coming into the bitcoin space over

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the last year and it's an absolute

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pleasure to have him

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back again thank you very much for

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coming back michael thanks for having me

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i guess we'll start with talking about

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the bitcoin for corporations conference

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so what were your impressions of the

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corporations

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take they buy your pitch

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clearly some of them did tesla namely

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but what was the general impression

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you had my impression was i was

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surprised at how much enthusiasm there

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you know when we started in august we

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were the first public company to make a

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serious commitment

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and then square followed us and then

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marathon

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patent did a pretty big bitcoin

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acquisition for their balance sheet a

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few weeks ago

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150 million dollars and and then when

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tesla did it

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you know we've now got four public

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companies

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in a row that have all made pretty

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material commitments

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of course the market's been enthusiastic

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the market's

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you know generally the market's been

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very supportive of

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all the bitcoin companies if you look at

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square

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stock paypal stock riot blockchain stock

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marathon stock microstrategy's been well

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treated

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i think tesla of course is the most

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successful you know stock of the year

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we've checked off one question which was

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how will public

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shareholders view this and there was

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some trepidation

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and in fact they've viewed it

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enthusiastically for example since

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since marathon did their 150 million

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dollar bitcoin acquisition their stock

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doubled

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if you're wondering how the public

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shareholders will view it

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oftentimes thing that holds back public

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companies from doing something is

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they're concerned about how it'll be

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perceived by their outside shareholders

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and because

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it's very difficult to meet with outside

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shareholders

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they're changing every minute of the day

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between 9 30 and 4 p.m right your

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shareholder base is changing

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so it's like trying to grab uh grab on

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to a whirlpool in the middle of an ocean

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you can't quite get your hands around it

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it's dynamic

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that's a challenge but as we came in the

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conference i thought

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first of all there's a lot of demand

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bubbling up we had a lot of people

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asking us a lot of people are asking us

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how did you do this what should we do

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there's illegal issues regulatory issues

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you know will you trip the 40 act are

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you going to be an etf

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what's the accounting treatment for it

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what appropriate corporate

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governance you know rather than try to

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have one

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meeting at a time you know say fiden you

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realize at some point

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if you had 40 hours of meetings a week

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for the next 30 years

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well that's like 2 000 times 30

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right was that 6 000 you can touch

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6 000 people in 30 years

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you just can't go fast enough so you

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can't do these one at a time so

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we thought let's just go ahead and add

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it as a track to microstrategy world

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which was all virtual and i thought by

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the way microstrategy world last year

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was 2

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500 of our customers in a room it cost

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us 4 million dollars and it cost them

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probably another six million dollars so

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we spent 10 million dollars in 2019 to

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put 2500 customers into

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a convention center this year

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microstrategy world

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we probably spent 1 15 that much money

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our customers spent nothing

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so we spent probably one thirtieth

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we reduced our travel and ex and

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entertainment

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and event budget by 97 percent

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by the way we've we reduced all of our

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travel and events

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budget by 98 year over

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year if you want an interesting factoid

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so microstrategy was pulled off for 97

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less money we had 21 000

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people registered instead of 2 500

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we thought we'll tack on bitcoin for

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corporations

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as an afterthought i thought well if we

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get 800 that would be good then i

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thought

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well we'll probably get a thousand and i

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thought well we get 2 000.

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and i went on television and i said well

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i think we'll get 2 000.

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and then we had this surge and the day

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of the event

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no joke it broke the internet like it

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actually broke our video server

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and the stress was we blew through 15

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000 people

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and i was on the phone with my i.t

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people saying you know

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get more capacity you know from our our

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vendor

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and for like an hour or two hours we

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actually were

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in the morning leading up to the noon

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thing we were like maxed out and i was

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worried

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so some enterprising cyber hornets

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the i love the bitcoiners they're so

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enterprising while i'm trying to solve

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the problem the conventional way someone

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turns on live streaming to youtube

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and they set up bootleg live streaming

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channels that have thousands of people

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on them when we finally got to the noon

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session

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uh with ross by who you introduced me to

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by the way

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i think thank you so we got to the noon

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session with ross and we had um

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8 500 people come into that session so i

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thought i'd have 2 000 and we

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we went to 8 500. i thought i'd have um

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1500 companies represented and it was

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actually 7

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000 companies represented in the live

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session

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and then the live session got bootlegged

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out and posted on youtube went viral i

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think we're up to about 250

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000 views now so i guess the summary

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would be

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exceeded my expectations and we had

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people from

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spacex there we had people you know some

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of elon musk companies

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we had people from marathon there

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the ones you would expect were there but

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of course

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there's an avalanche a private companies

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and and there were a decent number of

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public companies and treasurers and cfos

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that were lurking some don't want to

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have their names mentioned as you can

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imagine

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because it's a sensitive topic right as

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material for a company

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but i think we can call it a success

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because

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on television for the past few days

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we've had the ceo of gm

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asked if they're going to invest in

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bitcoin we've had the cfo of twitter

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asked about bitcoin we've had the ceo of

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asked about bitcoin you know we just had

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the mayor

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of uh miami francis suarez

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announced that they're moving forward to

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put bitcoin on their balance sheet

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and it's become part of the conversation

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even to the extent that now people are

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grappling with the accounting and the

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volatility issues

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which i i account to be as an incredible

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success for all of us right because

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a year ago no one would have even

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discussed this

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this morning we had a milestone in the

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cfo section

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of the wall street journal the

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challenges of incorporating bitcoin on

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the balance sheet for cfos was discussed

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in an

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article and i think that's the first

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that the wall street journal and the cfo

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section had ever

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actually brought up the topic of bitcoin

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the implication is it's in the

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conversation

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everywhere and increasingly people have

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come to terms with why they're not doing

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it and they'll be technical reasons

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oh it's volatile right i mean it's going

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up 200 percent a year but it's

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it's going up it's making us large sums

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of money in a volatile fashion that's a

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technical reason

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but if you're an investor and your

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reason for not investing in something

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is it's making money too fast in an

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unpredictable fashion

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i'm not going to say what i think of

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that it's quite amusing to me

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but uh if i had to be criticized i think

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i'd like to be criticized for making

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money too fast in a

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unpredictable fashion and then they're

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grappling with the accounting issues

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because if you hold it as the underlying

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asset it's it's currently accounted for

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as an intangible on the balance sheet

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which is the most conservative way

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i kind of like the way you'd account for

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patents or things like that

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you know if you hold it as a fund then

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it may

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under certain circumstances be accounted

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for as an investment asset

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but then if you have a fund it's a

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security

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and if you hold the asset it's property

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in a commodity

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and if you have a lot of securities

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at some point you might trip the sec 40

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act and become a finance

0:12:58

company because you have more than 40

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percent of your assets as securities

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there are a lot of nuances and people

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are grappling with them but they're good

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debates right good discussions to be

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having right now and a year ago no one

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would have even considered these matters

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and so we

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we have injected this into the

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conversation

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i think around the world and i think the

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bitcoin conference was part of it

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clearly the tesla purchase was helpful

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and i think february 8th

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you could call mainstream day safedean

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february 8th

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this year was the date when the entire

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story of bitcoin as a treasury reserve

0:13:35

asset

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crossed outside of the bitcoin in the

0:13:38

crypto community

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and it was on in the wall street journal

0:13:41

the washington

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well the the new york times irish news

0:13:46

the straits

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times every major financial publication

0:13:50

everywhere in the world and all the

0:13:52

mainstream media

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i got invited the next day to go on cnbc

0:13:57

bloomberg fox cnn

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npr and i'm like no more i can't do any

0:14:06

more but the point is

0:14:08

cnn npr these are not

0:14:12

you know bitcoin journals these are

0:14:14

mainstream sources

0:14:16

so i think the message is exploding into

0:14:18

the mainstream

0:14:20

you could start the clock you know

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february 8th was the day

0:14:25

the shot was heard round the world and

0:14:28

combined with the bitcoin for

0:14:30

corporations uh

0:14:31

summit placed this in the public domain

0:14:35

the beauty now of course is i used to

0:14:37

meet with a hundred people

0:14:38

and i could meet with 10 a week and then

0:14:41

we met with 8 000 people

0:14:43

and then it went viral to 250 000 people

0:14:46

and now we published our bitcoin

0:14:47

playbook and and

0:14:49

that's out there circulating amongst

0:14:52

lawyers and accountants and advisors and

0:14:54

investors and

0:14:56

we just let that percolate and i think

0:14:59

uh good things will happen

0:15:01

absolutely i you know i was going to say

0:15:03

the exact thing that you mentioned which

0:15:05

one year ago none of this was going on

0:15:07

anywhere nobody was talking about any of

0:15:09

this stuff

0:15:10

i remember exactly was one year ago it

0:15:12

was a conference

0:15:13

and i was with somebody who works at a

0:15:15

bitcoin company and i was telling them

0:15:17

they were talking about some

0:15:18

blockchain nonsense and i was telling

0:15:19

them that the case for corporations

0:15:20

really is

0:15:21

hold a small part of your balance sheet

0:15:23

in bitcoin and especially if you're

0:15:25

operating internationally it'll help you

0:15:26

to get around

0:15:27

banking closures and that'll uh protect

0:15:29

you from inflation and also

0:15:31

the response that i used to get when i

0:15:32

mentioned this to people was always

0:15:34

no it's too volatile and the accounting

0:15:37

would be too much of a headache there's

0:15:38

no way anybody would do it and it's

0:15:40

incredible

0:15:41

um and and it's almost entirely down to

0:15:44

how the conversation has entirely

0:15:46

shifted in a year now to the point where

0:15:47

we have a complete playbook that

0:15:49

you know the lawyers and the accountants

0:15:51

can just go to microstrategy.com

0:15:53

download

0:15:54

your corporate playbook and they have

0:15:56

the complete guide to how they

0:15:58

need to answer those questions and we've

0:16:00

already had

0:16:01

thousands of them show up so i think i

0:16:03

can't what commend you on your

0:16:05

incredible service to the cause and this

0:16:08

unbelievable uh contribution of just

0:16:10

putting this out there

0:16:11

and and forcing it upon people and it's

0:16:13

um people call it speculation and people

0:16:15

say well people are just speculating but

0:16:16

i think um

0:16:17

ultimately every economic decision is

0:16:20

speculation

0:16:21

and maybe the reason this speculation is

0:16:24

paying off is because it is

0:16:26

a better economic decision maybe it's

0:16:28

just that it's a better asset on the

0:16:29

balance sheet than the world is

0:16:30

discovering that

0:16:31

yeah i mean clearly i words can be

0:16:34

prejudicial as we talked about before

0:16:37

you know if i kicked you into the ocean

0:16:39

and i threw a life preserver and neck or

0:16:42

life raft next to you

0:16:44

it wouldn't be a speculation to put on

0:16:48

the life that you know the life vest or

0:16:50

crawl onto the life raft

0:16:52

if you were walking through the desert

0:16:54

and about to drown and i dropped a water

0:16:56

bottle that was sealed

0:16:58

of an uh from a brand that you'd never

0:17:00

purchased in a supermarket before

0:17:02

it wouldn't be a speculation to crack

0:17:05

open the water bottle and drink the

0:17:07

water

0:17:08

and if you if you lived in argentina and

0:17:11

the currency was crashing and you had

0:17:13

pesos and you had the opportunity to buy

0:17:15

a tangible asset or

0:17:16

or convert your money to dollars i don't

0:17:18

think it would be a speculation

0:17:20

i think it would be rational right like

0:17:24

you know if i kicked you out of an

0:17:25

airplane and you had a parachute it

0:17:27

wouldn't be a speculation to pull the

0:17:29

rip cord either i mean

0:17:31

i it's just you know it's only

0:17:34

speculation when you don't understand

0:17:35

the engineering or the science behind

0:17:38

the thing

0:17:39

then it's speculation you could say it

0:17:42

was speculation

0:17:43

for amazon to use the internet to sell

0:17:46

books

0:17:47

and expect people to buy amazon stock as

0:17:50

but it works fifteen thousand retail

0:17:54

companies got destroyed

0:17:56

for their lack of speculation hey can we

0:17:58

talk about the fiat

0:18:00

standard absolutely yes so

0:18:03

a couple of thoughts i had you made this

0:18:06

point you said um

0:18:07

we're talking about money progressing

0:18:09

from soft

0:18:10

to hard the gold standard was the

0:18:12

culmination of

0:18:14

uh commodity monies you know from glass

0:18:16

beads and sea

0:18:17

shells and stone coins and and the like

0:18:21

and copper and

0:18:22

brass and eventually we get to gold and

0:18:25

gold as pinnacle and silver is next and

0:18:28

so if gold is the hardest commodity

0:18:30

money

0:18:31

it lasts the longest and then you make

0:18:33

the point

0:18:34

human beings are able to take a longer

0:18:37

view i mean your time horizon stretches

0:18:40

you know if you had sea shells as money

0:18:42

or carved wood sticks

0:18:44

your time horizon wouldn't last beyond

0:18:46

the rotting of the wood sticks

0:18:48

or your timer eyes it wouldn't last

0:18:50

longer than when people trekked off to

0:18:52

the seashore to get more seashells

0:18:54

so if gold is the hardest money of that

0:18:56

time period and human beings were able

0:18:57

to take a long

0:18:59

view they can create longer lasting

0:19:03

structures right if you have a if you

0:19:05

have a harder money you can create

0:19:07

a longer-lived structure and that

0:19:10

structure would be an institution

0:19:12

and the hard money is working against

0:19:15

time right time is the uh the impedance

0:19:20

and the money is flowing through time so

0:19:22

i started thinking about that as an

0:19:24

engineer and i thought um materials

0:19:27

progress from soft to hard and we build

0:19:31

with wood

0:19:32

and then we build with the brick and

0:19:34

then we build with stone

0:19:37

and then we build with iron and then we

0:19:39

build with steel

0:19:41

and and steel is right now right the

0:19:44

the winner of the materials and and

0:19:47

using the hardest material

0:19:50

human beings are able to create the

0:19:52

tallest structures

0:19:54

the largest and the tallest they're

0:19:56

working against gravity

0:19:58

right so time is an elemental force

0:20:01

gravity is an elemental force

0:20:03

so the significance of steel is

0:20:07

i'm able to build a 100 story skyscraper

0:20:11

and the significance of strong money

0:20:14

or gold money was maybe i could create a

0:20:17

100 year old dynasty of some sort

0:20:20

maybe i could even build a cathedral

0:20:22

based upon the gold

0:20:24

money progresses from slower to faster

0:20:27

when we get to bitcoin you've got a

0:20:29

harder money than gold

0:20:31

so if it's harder that means in theory

0:20:35

you can build structures like

0:20:37

institutions that will last longer than

0:20:39

the gold institutions or the fiat

0:20:41

institutions

0:20:42

i had the thought when jack dorsey just

0:20:45

announced today that he put 500 bitcoin

0:20:48

an institution or an endowment to

0:20:51

finance bitcoin

0:20:53

development and with a focus on africa

0:20:55

and the like so presumably bitcoin

0:20:57

development lightning development

0:20:59

etc and i thought 500 bitcoin will

0:21:02

eventually be

0:21:03

if you don't spend it it'll be worth 500

0:21:05

million dollars

0:21:06

you know we'll get to a million dollars

0:21:08

a coin and then maybe bitcoin will start

0:21:10

to appreciate it 20

0:21:11

a year 30 and eventually it'll slow down

0:21:16

but you could borrow against 500 million

0:21:18

dollars

0:21:19

50 million a year which is enough to

0:21:23

finance 100 you know a development unit

0:21:26

of hundreds of software developers

0:21:28

forever you know a simple rule of thumb

0:21:32

500 btc might reasonably support 500

0:21:35

professionals

0:21:36

working an organization forever

0:21:40

okay now uh you know

0:21:43

that's why right because it number goes

0:21:46

up it's a store of value

0:21:48

if i put the equivalent amount of money

0:21:50

into government bonds you know the

0:21:52

half-life is

0:21:53

you know it's not going to support

0:21:55

anything right like

0:21:56

500 bc you can calculate it today right

0:22:00

that's

0:22:01

what is it two and a half no no 500 btc

0:22:05

it's 25 million dollars

0:22:06

right yeah so 25 million dollars

0:22:09

invested in

0:22:11

in what something which is going up less

0:22:15

20 a year is losing value right so

0:22:19

you're gonna i can't do it in the s p

0:22:22

wouldn't work gold doesn't even work

0:22:25

they're both clocking at 15

0:22:26

a year sovereign debt doesn't work so

0:22:29

the nasdaq sort of works it's going up

0:22:32

big tech

0:22:33

sort of works but you couldn't really

0:22:35

say forever

0:22:36

with big tech you know like because it's

0:22:38

tied in

0:22:39

to you know it's got so many risks and

0:22:41

complexities

0:22:43

so if i endow an institution with with

0:22:45

the hardest money

0:22:47

i could recently have a 100 year

0:22:49

multi-hundred year time horizon and i'd

0:22:52

look in the face i say

0:22:53

yeah it looks to me like 500 btc will

0:22:56

support

0:22:56

250 to 500 people i mean 250 at 200 000

0:23:01

a year

0:23:02

500 at 100 000 a year i mean are you

0:23:05

supporting people if you're supporting

0:23:06

people in africa

0:23:07

developers in africa the cost per

0:23:10

right now the cost per engineer is 25

0:23:12

000 to 50

0:23:13

000 a year probably 25 000 a year

0:23:17

so you could support 500 people forever

0:23:21

let's call it a thousand years i mean i

0:23:23

mean we can go back and forth but

0:23:25

so hard money lets you work against

0:23:28

time with a with an institution

0:23:32

and then i think you've just got you've

0:23:33

got this other dimension which is

0:23:35

is it smarter and is it faster

0:23:38

bitcoin is maybe 10 or 100 times harder

0:23:41

than gold and so we can look

0:23:43

we can look out hundreds and hundreds of

0:23:45

years but it's million times

0:23:47

faster than gold yeah i pointed this out

0:23:49

the other day if you have

0:23:50

if you have a billion dollar block of

0:23:52

gold is 30 000 pounds moving it

0:23:55

across a continent is probably a five

0:23:58

million dollar

0:24:00

thousand hour exercise thousand hours to

0:24:03

organize it it's view 747s

0:24:06

lots of armed guards lots of diplomatic

0:24:09

issues so

0:24:10

five million dollars thousand hours and

0:24:13

if i want to move a billion dollar block

0:24:15

of bitcoin five dollars one hour

0:24:17

million times cheaper thousand times

0:24:19

faster

0:24:20

right now and so that means money

0:24:23

progress when money progresses from

0:24:25

slower to faster humans are able to

0:24:27

create higher frequency

0:24:29

structures and they're working against

0:24:32

space

0:24:32

or against friction right so

0:24:35

longer lived structures have to work

0:24:37

against time how

0:24:38

how am i going to endow the foundation

0:24:40

for a thousand years

0:24:42

and higher frequency structures are all

0:24:44

about

0:24:45

i need to move a billion dollars of gold

0:24:47

every two hours

0:24:49

or a billion dollars of money every two

0:24:51

hours not

0:24:53

every two months and the gold of course

0:24:55

is so low frequency

0:24:57

it doesn't oscillate at all right i mean

0:25:00

like you have a billion dollars if you

0:25:02

have 30 000 pounds of gold how

0:25:04

frequently does it move

0:25:06

i mean didn't the french send that

0:25:08

aircraft carrier to pick up their gold

0:25:11

once in a century

0:25:14

yeah like like is it like once a decade

0:25:16

type thing

0:25:17

we're talking about a lot of millions of

0:25:19

dollars to send it

0:25:20

uh when they uh when uh they repatriated

0:25:23

their gold from the fed

0:25:24

i can't remember how much it cost but it

0:25:26

was in the tens of millions of dollars i

0:25:27

think

0:25:28

and it took years to move germany's gold

0:25:31

so it's very slow compared to bitcoin

0:25:34

yeah people that criticize bitcoin

0:25:36

for being slow they're running these lab

0:25:39

experiments in a garage

0:25:40

on their on their little alt coin moving

0:25:43

no money around

0:25:45

and it's kind of like criticizing

0:25:47

someone

0:25:48

you know running a power reactor when

0:25:50

you've got like a

0:25:51

a lighter in your hand you know it's

0:25:53

like like it totally unrelated

0:25:56

right it's it's silly if you're gonna

0:25:58

compare the speed

0:26:00

and the efficiency of bitcoin you have

0:26:02

to compare it to the gold network

0:26:04

because you need to have final

0:26:06

settlement on a billion dollars of money

0:26:09

uh of tangible property and uh you're

0:26:12

not really getting a million a billion

0:26:14

dollars of settlement on a fiat network

0:26:17

you know without so many other things so

0:26:19

i guess my point is

0:26:21

we have something which is going to last

0:26:23

a lot longer it's harder and we have

0:26:25

something which is

0:26:26

which moves faster so you create the

0:26:28

potential of high

0:26:29

frequency structures which are

0:26:31

inconceivable like a bank

0:26:33

that actually makes billion dollar loans

0:26:36

and moves the money tangibly

0:26:39

every day every hour every minute there

0:26:42

are certain structures people can

0:26:43

conceive of because

0:26:45

they never thought about being able to

0:26:47

tangibly move a billion dollars of

0:26:50

monetary energy in 37

0:26:52

minutes and then move it back in the

0:26:54

crypto world they got this idea of flash

0:26:56

loans

0:26:57

you know maybe that's the closest thing

0:26:59

i don't know how enamored i am with a

0:27:01

flash loan that lasts for like

0:27:03

400 milliseconds i don't know like that

0:27:05

it seems to me to be

0:27:07

interesting but cute maybe a little bit

0:27:09

more gimmicky i can definitely see the

0:27:11

application

0:27:11

of a loan that lasts 87 days

0:27:15

or 31 days or maybe moving a block of

0:27:18

money for 187 days

0:27:21

if i can do it cross two with two

0:27:23

counterparties two institutional

0:27:24

counterparties without the banks in the

0:27:26

middle and the government's in the

0:27:27

middle

0:27:28

and we we get to that in a second this

0:27:29

fiat issue that

0:27:31

opens up a new world you could imagine

0:27:34

in like 1600

0:27:36

in renaissance europe they're building

0:27:38

buildings with masonry and they're five

0:27:39

stories high

0:27:41

and someone says you know one day we'll

0:27:42

have steel and we're going to build

0:27:44

hundred

0:27:44

stories skyscrapers and they'll be

0:27:47

shaped differently

0:27:49

you know and the architects couldn't

0:27:50

even conceive of that because they

0:27:53

didn't have a

0:27:54

material strong enough i don't think

0:27:56

people can conceive of the kind of banks

0:27:58

or the kind of institutions that will

0:28:00

have with high frequency

0:28:02

money and i think this last issue is

0:28:04

money progresses from dumber to smarter

0:28:06

humans are able to create more complex

0:28:09

structures

0:28:10

and they're working against entropy

0:28:11

maybe complexity

0:28:13

maybe entropy is the word so we're

0:28:16

either working against

0:28:17

time we got to be harder we're working

0:28:19

against space we have to be fast we're

0:28:20

working against entropy

0:28:22

we got to be smarter and the material

0:28:26

is the semiconductor chip to make a

0:28:28

smarter

0:28:29

combined with bitcoin and the material

0:28:32

is the network to make us

0:28:34

faster combined with bitcoin i mean

0:28:37

bitcoin is basically sitting on

0:28:39

on the network on the chip getting

0:28:41

harder

0:28:42

faster smarter and

0:28:46

the conclusion you come to is just like

0:28:48

architecture

0:28:49

where i can break the laws of gravity

0:28:53

what did steel give us it didn't just

0:28:54

give us 50 50 100 story buildings it

0:28:56

also gave us

0:28:58

cantilevers and then also gave us

0:29:00

bridges right and carnegie made all his

0:29:02

money by the way

0:29:03

i read his biography his big customers

0:29:07

were municipalities buying uh

0:29:10

iron and steel for bridges bridge is a

0:29:13

pretty big deal actually and you can

0:29:15

make the argument bridges may be even

0:29:17

more important

0:29:18

to civilization than skyscrapers i mean

0:29:21

knock out the bridges in manhattan

0:29:24

and everybody starves to death yeah you

0:29:26

ever seen a bridge

0:29:27

you know the bridge that connects san

0:29:29

francisco and oakland or the bay bridge

0:29:32

connects the eastern shore of maryland

0:29:33

dc with the bridge it's a one-hour

0:29:36

commute

0:29:37

without the bridge it's a 12-hour

0:29:39

commute or

0:29:41

18-hour drive in one case i drive to

0:29:45

and the other case i don't

0:29:49

yeah it ends the civilization

0:29:52

so i think that this this element of um

0:29:54

money

0:29:55

i think you put your finger on something

0:29:57

very fascinating

0:29:59

which is as the money gets harder

0:30:02

we can see further into the future with

0:30:04

our institutions

0:30:06

but i think as it gets smarter and

0:30:08

faster

0:30:10

we can construct institutions

0:30:13

or relationships that are inconceivable

0:30:17

before with slow soft money

0:30:21

and i would say that takes us to fiat

0:30:23

right

0:30:24

i mean fiat is softer money it's

0:30:27

faster than a block of gold but it's

0:30:30

still

0:30:31

so much slower and stupider right than

0:30:34

bitcoin

0:30:35

it's manual at the end of the day at

0:30:37

least gold is somehow automatic it's a

0:30:39

machine in a sense it has its own truth

0:30:41

within it

0:30:42

you can verify it even though it's a

0:30:43

little bit expensive but

0:30:45

uh with fiat you know it's it's

0:30:47

ultimately manual but

0:30:48

day-to-day use it is generally faster to

0:30:51

move it around than moving around

0:30:52

physical gold

0:30:53

but it's real drawback as as you were

0:30:56

saying is in

0:30:57

holding on to value for the future

0:30:58

that's where it's really not good and

0:31:00

in that sense i the way that i look at

0:31:02

it is the higher the money

0:31:04

the more it incentivizes us to lower our

0:31:07

time preference and therefore makes us

0:31:08

think more and more about the future

0:31:10

because

0:31:10

the harder the money the less uncertain

0:31:13

the future

0:31:14

because now you have something that you

0:31:15

know i have these

0:31:17

this wealth this monetary energy that

0:31:19

i've stored

0:31:20

and i have more certainty in the fact

0:31:23

that it's going to be there in a year

0:31:25

or in two years in three years so then

0:31:27

one year and two year and three years

0:31:29

becomes

0:31:30

more of a foreseeable thing for me less

0:31:32

of an uncertain thing for

0:31:34

you so i start discounting less when i

0:31:36

start discounting it

0:31:37

less i start effectively lowering my

0:31:39

time preference and providing for the

0:31:41

future and

0:31:42

this is why i think you know the harder

0:31:43

money got

0:31:45

you know silver and gold were

0:31:46

continuously getting harder and then

0:31:47

silver was eliminated and gold was

0:31:48

hardest

0:31:49

that was the pinnacle of human

0:31:51

achievement arguably this one

0:31:53

this was when we made the most

0:31:55

incredible technology this is when we

0:31:56

invented

0:31:57

all these incredible things like the

0:31:58

airplane and many many many things

0:32:01

of the 19th century discussing the

0:32:02

bitcoin standard and i think

0:32:04

in the 20th century maybe we've reversed

0:32:07

that process because our money is

0:32:08

getting easier and so

0:32:09

the future is becoming less certain and

0:32:11

so we're becoming more high time

0:32:13

preference because we discount the

0:32:14

future more

0:32:15

i agree with that yeah i think you put

0:32:16

your finger on something there which is

0:32:18

the future gets hazier and you see more

0:32:21

anxiety

0:32:23

i mean i know as a corporate ceo in

0:32:26

march

0:32:27

as i was staring at a block of 500

0:32:29

million u.s

0:32:30

dollars and i was watching the the money

0:32:32

supply expand

0:32:34

and the dollar devalued my anxiety went

0:32:38

through the roof

0:32:39

my anxiety went up so high

0:32:43

that it kind of kicked me out of the

0:32:45

fiat standard into the bitcoin standard

0:32:47

right

0:32:48

like if like boiling a frog or jumping

0:32:50

out of the boiling whatever i mean

0:32:52

it literally shocked me it's all about

0:32:55

engineering

0:32:56

a mechanism or engineering security for

0:32:59

yourself

0:32:59

right i mean steel allows me to stand on

0:33:02

a cantilevered structure

0:33:04

a hundred feet over a canyon or it

0:33:07

allows me to stand on a bridge a

0:33:08

thousand feet

0:33:10

over the hudson river or or the east

0:33:12

river

0:33:13

with security i can even drive a car

0:33:16

over it and steel allows me to drive

0:33:18

to stand uh 800 feet in the air

0:33:22

right and and you imagine the insecurity

0:33:25

of that taking the structure away

0:33:27

the human beings are able to go to

0:33:29

places

0:33:30

with engineering space stations right

0:33:34

we're able to go places with engineering

0:33:37

where

0:33:37

otherwise you literally can't live like

0:33:40

there is no life

0:33:41

there without the engineering you know

0:33:43

you got me thinking about

0:33:45

the fiat standard and you know some of

0:33:47

the criticisms i've heard

0:33:49

lately about energy consumption of

0:33:52

bitcoin got me thinking about well

0:33:54

what's the comparable

0:33:56

system and again the critics are people

0:34:00

again they have like they have a little

0:34:05

toy railroad train in their garage and

0:34:07

they think well my toy railroad train is

0:34:09

more efficient than bitcoin

0:34:11

but they don't really contrast the

0:34:13

energy consumption of bitcoin

0:34:16

to the energy consumption of of the

0:34:18

alternative system

0:34:20

that it is replacing so if you look at

0:34:23

the fiat system

0:34:25

money's got to do two things it's got a

0:34:27

it's got to be a medium of exchange and

0:34:28

a store of value

0:34:30

and uh bitcoin kind of is a is one

0:34:33

structure

0:34:33

and and the fiat is another structure so

0:34:36

i look at the current system and i think

0:34:37

well to make this work when we replace

0:34:39

the gold standard i mean

0:34:41

the gold standard and it's when

0:34:43

commodity money reached its pinnacle i

0:34:45

suppose

0:34:46

after all the shuffling around we

0:34:47

eventually arrived at gold coins and

0:34:49

silver coins

0:34:51

and gold in my opinion is store of value

0:34:54

and silver is the medium of exchange or

0:34:56

you know one of them was the day-to-day

0:34:58

currency a gold coin with like

0:35:01

what eight grand eight grams like a

0:35:03

quarter of an

0:35:04

ounce feels like it's about five hundred

0:35:06

dollar coin

0:35:08

and so the gold coin is about one week

0:35:11

salary

0:35:11

for a you know for a lot of a laborer

0:35:14

and you wouldn't have used a 500 coin or

0:35:18

a thousand dollar

0:35:19

coin to pay for things routinely but you

0:35:21

know if i gave you a stack of 10 of them

0:35:23

that's your

0:35:24

that's your treasury so the silver coin

0:35:27

is the medium

0:35:27

exchange and and in that standard you've

0:35:29

got a very clean structure

0:35:31

gold coin silver coin you mine the gold

0:35:34

you mine the silver you mint the gold

0:35:36

you meant the silver you store the gold

0:35:37

you store the silver they all circulate

0:35:39

around

0:35:40

and eventually maybe their gold notes

0:35:43

right there

0:35:43

maybe some notes that are fractional or

0:35:46

fully reserved banks

0:35:48

moving that around when we went to the

0:35:50

fiat standard

0:35:52

we replaced that with um the treaty of

0:35:54

genoa got me thinking about this safety

0:35:57

we replaced this with diplomats

0:36:01

corporations accountants lawyers

0:36:04

programmers security guards contractors

0:36:07

buildings armies software mints

0:36:11

we kept the mints we kept the printers

0:36:13

we kept the gold mines

0:36:14

we kept the vaults and then we tacked on

0:36:18

ideas like etfs bond indexes

0:36:21

bond funds financial managers

0:36:25

and everything else around them

0:36:28

in order to create a medium of exchange

0:36:32

a store of value i'm trying to figure

0:36:35

out how much energy is consumed

0:36:37

by you know what is it like uh

0:36:41

a hundred thousand bank buildings or

0:36:44

jp morgan has 200 000 people so i'm i'm

0:36:47

guessing there must be

0:36:49

in the finance industry around the world

0:36:51

in the us is like 8 million so half

0:36:54

of the finance industry is tied up in in

0:36:57

store of value medium of exchange so

0:37:00

if we could figure it out it'd probably

0:37:01

like 40 million people in the world

0:37:03

maybe it's 20 to 40 million people

0:37:07

so what's the carbon footprint and the

0:37:09

building footprint and the concrete

0:37:11

footprint and the steel footprint and

0:37:13

the electricity consumption

0:37:15

of and i and i was kind of kind i didn't

0:37:18

i'm not really allocating

0:37:19

all the armies and the like but you

0:37:21

could probably say

0:37:23

if you really wanted to to keep track of

0:37:25

the real cost

0:37:26

of of the system the proof of work

0:37:29

system so you got to put in the military

0:37:31

yeah i mean you the first cost of the

0:37:34

system is probably

0:37:37

20 million 30 million bankers

0:37:40

and financial advisors and the like

0:37:44

and then the secondary that's the

0:37:45

primary cost the secondary cost

0:37:48

is all the government infrastructure the

0:37:50

diplomats and the military officials and

0:37:53

and uh the aircraft carriers and the

0:37:55

armies and the back and forth

0:37:58

i guess the third cost is actually the

0:38:01

wars themselves

0:38:02

that get wage back and forth and then i

0:38:06

think the fourth cost

0:38:07

the pernicious cost i guess is the

0:38:10

inflation

0:38:11

yeah if if we're burning

0:38:14

you know you said what seven or eight

0:38:16

percent was the monetary inflation

0:38:20

on average if there's 500 trillion

0:38:23

dollars of monetary assets and

0:38:26

you're debasing five percent of it a

0:38:28

year even

0:38:29

it's 25 trillion dollars so i don't know

0:38:32

50 trillion dollars a year

0:38:34

it must be 50 trillion if we could

0:38:37

somehow calculate that number i mean

0:38:39

if you really want to do something

0:38:41

useful calculate the cost

0:38:43

of the infrastructure the banking

0:38:46

infrastructure then the governmental

0:38:48

infrastructure

0:38:49

and then the cost of the of the first

0:38:52

order cost of the currency debasement

0:38:53

and the second order impact on the

0:38:55

currency derivatives the stocks the

0:38:57

bonds and

0:38:58

the real estate and then after you've

0:39:01

done that you could throw in

0:39:03

uh the ins the business insolvency and

0:39:06

the destruction of

0:39:07

good enterprises and then the political

0:39:11

insolvency destruction of good

0:39:13

countries right the inefficiency of the

0:39:15

system results in the destruction of

0:39:17

entire countries

0:39:18

i guess the best example being like

0:39:20

right the meltdown of the weimar

0:39:22

republic due to the treaty of versailles

0:39:24

which was

0:39:25

i think largely you know a result of uh

0:39:29

treatment of debt and uh you know

0:39:32

following world war one

0:39:34

i mean they pretty much crashed that

0:39:36

entire political system

0:39:38

because of the way they uh they layered

0:39:40

the the debt

0:39:42

you know asymmetrically on the germans

0:39:44

and not on the french and the americans

0:39:46

you know that we know how that one ended

0:39:49

which was

0:39:50

wasn't good for anybody i think we can

0:39:53

you know in the 20th century we see an

0:39:55

example of lots of

0:39:56

countries destroyed by the fiat standard

0:40:00

i'm sensitive to all the companies

0:40:02

destroyed by the fiat standard as well

0:40:05

the example of that is as they keep

0:40:07

cranking up the monetary expansion rate

0:40:10

and as ceos keep attempting to keep

0:40:12

their to have their stockhold value

0:40:15

the only way the stock can hold value is

0:40:17

to expand the cash flows per share

0:40:20

faster than the rate of money expansion

0:40:23

and that means that uh in an environment

0:40:26

where the money's expanding at seven

0:40:28

percent a year

0:40:29

if your company's growing three percent

0:40:31

a year you can't store value in the

0:40:33

stock

0:40:34

and the political pressure the whole

0:40:36

value in the stock causes you to

0:40:38

go take on massive debt and then the

0:40:40

mass of debt is used to either issue

0:40:43

dividends or to buy the stock back

0:40:45

and so what you're doing is you're

0:40:47

taking on a billion dollars of

0:40:48

liabilities to actually

0:40:50

pump the stock up and then you're

0:40:52

impoverishing

0:40:54

the company eventually you end up with

0:40:57

the company having billions of dollars

0:40:59

of debt

0:40:59

no equity and then when you hit a crisis

0:41:03

like a technology crisis like amazon

0:41:06

attacks

0:41:07

toys r us well then you're insolvent or

0:41:10

you have a

0:41:11

pandemic crisis and they shut down you

0:41:14

know your restaurant and you're

0:41:15

insolvent

0:41:16

so the crises create insolvencies

0:41:19

because the cap the companies

0:41:21

are under capitalized because they took

0:41:23

on debt

0:41:24

under political pressure to keep their

0:41:26

stock up and

0:41:28

and you can see that playing out even

0:41:30

right now

0:41:31

where the majority of c like we just saw

0:41:35

i'm not going to name the cfos but the

0:41:37

majority of cfos and ceos will say

0:41:39

it's we're going to take our cash and

0:41:41

buy our stock back

0:41:43

and conventional financial thinking is

0:41:45

reward

0:41:46

ceos and cfos for buying stocks back and

0:41:49

issuing dividends

0:41:50

and criticizes them for buying bitcoin

0:41:53

or tangible assets with their cash flows

0:41:57

right like i would be criticized as a

0:41:59

speculator

0:42:00

taking risk with my balance sheet even

0:42:03

though today i have 3.2 billion dollars

0:42:07

tangible assets on my balance sheet a

0:42:10

year ago i had 500 million

0:42:13

right and conventional wisdom is you

0:42:15

should give away the 500 million and

0:42:16

have zero

0:42:18

so conventional thinking is decapitalize

0:42:20

the company

0:42:22

and you're really ostracized or

0:42:24

criticized

0:42:25

if you convert cash from

0:42:29

a weak asset to a strong asset

0:42:32

right primarily by conventional thinking

0:42:34

i i know i said a lot and i throw a lot

0:42:37

out there but i should pause and we

0:42:38

should just

0:42:39

talk about it because i think uh you

0:42:42

know there's a lot of interesting

0:42:43

implications and and they start with

0:42:47

idea of the fiat system and the fiat

0:42:50

standard

0:42:51

yeah that is uh that is great uh thank

0:42:54

you for that

0:42:55

like the cost of the fiat standard is

0:42:57

all the things that you mentioned and

0:42:58

there's also the

0:42:59

uh just the the business cycle which is

0:43:02

constantly causing

0:43:04

misallocation of capital and businesses

0:43:06

to um

0:43:07

inve make male investments which get

0:43:09

wiped out

0:43:10

all the time and then there's the fact

0:43:13

um and and this is primarily outside the

0:43:18

it's it's so much bigger problem

0:43:19

elsewhere which is that

0:43:21

you have the country's payments balances

0:43:24

all of their international account and

0:43:25

their current account

0:43:27

all of it is settled with the central

0:43:29

bank's cash balance

0:43:30

which is also used to back

0:43:33

people's uh deposits in the banking

0:43:35

system and it is also used

0:43:37

to buy government bonds so essentially

0:43:39

it's financing government bonds

0:43:41

and it back to the national currency so

0:43:44

you're constantly

0:43:45

putting all of society's savings and all

0:43:48

of society's ability to trade with the

0:43:49

form of the outside world

0:43:51

essentially as collateral for government

0:43:54

to borrow against

0:43:55

and of course the government has a high

0:43:57

time preference incentives

0:43:58

to continue to abuse this all the time

0:44:00

and so it ends up

0:44:02

creating all kinds of man all kinds of

0:44:05

destruction of savings and destruction

0:44:07

of capital i think

0:44:08

that's really well it's hard to estimate

0:44:10

which is the biggest but i think

0:44:13

if you think about a century of

0:44:14

misallocation of capital

0:44:16

and when you think that you know how

0:44:18

much capital we've misallocated

0:44:20

and how much capital was essentially

0:44:23

leaked

0:44:23

away from people from prudent productive

0:44:26

people who had put it away

0:44:28

to finance their future and then

0:44:29

suddenly so it go poof because their

0:44:31

central bank had printed it

0:44:32

and all that went to finance wasteful

0:44:35

government spending and weight and

0:44:36

war and investment in in things that

0:44:39

were not

0:44:40

chosen in the market if you think about

0:44:42

the opportunity cost of that over a

0:44:44

century

0:44:45

i think the world would be a very

0:44:46

different place and i you know i don't

0:44:48

necessarily have to

0:44:49

speculate about technological

0:44:50

achievements that we haven't made but i

0:44:52

think

0:44:53

with the things that we have i think you

0:44:54

know owning a house with electricity

0:44:58

and you know 24-hour electricity and

0:45:00

running water

0:45:01

is probably something that would be

0:45:03

attainable for everybody in the world if

0:45:04

money was hard you know if you think

0:45:06

about it

0:45:07

anybody particularly people in the

0:45:09

poorest countries in the world if they

0:45:10

had had gold for the last century

0:45:13

it would be almost trivial for people to

0:45:16

be able to secure

0:45:17

a modern house with electricity and uh

0:45:20

running

0:45:20

hot water as a basic infrastructure i

0:45:23

think

0:45:24

the upside of where we would be is is is

0:45:27

almost unimaginable for people

0:45:28

uh in our position but i think the the

0:45:31

the bare minimum

0:45:32

would be that basic technology would be

0:45:34

far cheaper all over the world and far

0:45:36

more easily available because people

0:45:38

could

0:45:38

afford them it's not that expensive to

0:45:40

move to build a

0:45:42

an engine that gives you 24-hour

0:45:44

electricity it's it's a really simple

0:45:45

engineering problem that's been solved

0:45:47

in many places in the world for many

0:45:48

many decades

0:45:49

and it just keeps getting cheaper every

0:45:51

year and i think you know the reason

0:45:53

that many people in the world don't have

0:45:54

it is because they have bad money that

0:45:56

just continues

0:45:57

to lose value and it ruins their time

0:45:58

preferences we were saying earlier it

0:45:59

prevents them from thinking

0:46:00

of the future one thing that's

0:46:02

interesting to me

0:46:04

is um in the perfect gold standard the

0:46:06

store of value is a gold coin

0:46:08

and the medium exchange is a silver coin

0:46:11

as i read the fiat standard i see

0:46:14

you know we kind of had to abandon the

0:46:15

gold standard because we needed

0:46:18

faster money and we needed larger

0:46:20

quantities of it

0:46:22

you know we replaced the gold standard

0:46:23

with this network of

0:46:26

tens of thousands of banks and hundreds

0:46:28

of central banks and

0:46:29

armies of accountants and and lawyers

0:46:33

and uh and bureaucrats the currency was

0:46:37

the medium of exchange the store of

0:46:39

value when the

0:46:40

when uh the fiat system worked first

0:46:43

they tried to store value as gold right

0:46:46

it seems like they they layered on

0:46:48

uh fiat currency over gold to try to do

0:46:52

that and then

0:46:53

over time as the the gold got seized and

0:46:57

it was

0:46:58

it was synthetic gold or hypothecated

0:47:02

and then in 71 that kind of the

0:47:05

semblance of that started breaking down

0:47:08

and then the store of value in the fiat

0:47:11

system was sovereign debt

0:47:12

if we look at the world today there's

0:47:14

all the currency and

0:47:15

and the theoretical store value right if

0:47:18

you ask a corporate treasurer

0:47:20

what are you going to do with your

0:47:21

treasury i need to store my value well

0:47:23

i don't hold it in cash outright i would

0:47:26

hold it in

0:47:27

government debt right treasuries where

0:47:29

the gold

0:47:30

the gold standard right is treasuries

0:47:33

and by

0:47:33

that kind of worked like for example um

0:47:37

the currency system used to have

0:47:40

international currency trading used to

0:47:43

kind of work there was price discovery

0:47:45

in the market for example

0:47:47

you remember when um you know greek debt

0:47:50

was trading

0:47:51

what was it like eight percent or nine

0:47:53

or ten percent and

0:47:54

i remember spanish debt or italian debt

0:47:57

used to trade

0:47:58

five six percent i would say if you go

0:48:00

back to before the eu was formed

0:48:03

and you had all these countries with all

0:48:05

their different currencies the

0:48:07

currencies were in a competitive market

0:48:09

and if a country wanted to keep its

0:48:11

currency from collapsing

0:48:13

you had to raise the interest rate so

0:48:16

you remember when people used to have 12

0:48:18

interest rates and eight percent by the

0:48:20

way under the volcker regime we go back

0:48:22

to the 80s you had ronald reagan he was

0:48:24

fairly conservative volcker was

0:48:26

conservative

0:48:27

there you had the fiat standard but they

0:48:29

you know they took the interest rates to

0:48:32

in the u.s thinking was countries had to

0:48:35

compete

0:48:36

to make the currency viable you know you

0:48:38

had to have

0:48:39

interest rates that were market set and

0:48:42

in that world

0:48:43

you had eight percent 30-year bonds and

0:48:46

you had five percent

0:48:48

bonds and in 2010 short-term interest

0:48:51

rates were five percent

0:48:52

so you remember you were saying well you

0:48:54

know like the money supply was expanding

0:48:56

at like seven or eight percent

0:48:58

maybe seven percent or something in that

0:49:01

world if i'm a corporate treasurer

0:49:03

i can get five or six percent on bonds

0:49:06

call it credit worthy bonds right triple

0:49:08

a credit

0:49:10

the store of value in the fiat system

0:49:12

when it works

0:49:14

and we'll go back to good old days

0:49:16

ronald reagan maybe was the good old

0:49:18

when it works you buy credit grade bonds

0:49:21

triple a rated you buy sovereign debt it

0:49:24

yields four

0:49:24

five six percent the money supply

0:49:27

expands

0:49:28

either three percent or seven percent

0:49:30

say it's expanding at seven or eight

0:49:32

percent

0:49:33

you're getting a two percent loss or one

0:49:35

percent loss

0:49:37

i give you a hundred million dollars the

0:49:39

half-life of the money

0:49:40

is 35 years so in that world

0:49:44

you can have a by 35 years or 30 years

0:49:47

it's kind of a magic number it's

0:49:49

it's your career safety so if i'm a ceo

0:49:53

or i'm a corporate treasurer and i'm

0:49:55

running on the fiat standard

0:49:57

in that time period i can take my

0:49:59

capital

0:50:00

i can put it into like credit worthy

0:50:03

bonds

0:50:03

not take a lot of execution risk and not

0:50:06

try to guess

0:50:07

you know what happens with zoom versus

0:50:09

tesla and i'm not

0:50:10

quote unquote speculating right

0:50:13

the fiat standard when it works gives

0:50:16

you sovereign debt and credit

0:50:18

instruments that allow me as a

0:50:19

responsible corporate treasurer

0:50:21

to protect the assets of the company for

0:50:24

the next 20 to 30 years long enough

0:50:27

for the company to execute its business

0:50:29

strategy that used to work but then

0:50:31

something started

0:50:32

breaking down over the last 30 years and

0:50:35

today it's busted

0:50:37

there's no price discovery sovereign

0:50:39

debt is not a store of value

0:50:42

last week the junk bond index dipped

0:50:44

below five percent it was four point

0:50:46

nine percent

0:50:47

okay the theoretical risk on junk bonds

0:50:50

the risk of default

0:50:51

to anybody is four percent but

0:50:54

to a rational person it feels like it's

0:50:57

eight percent

0:50:57

it's four to eight percent is the risk

0:51:00

on the bond which means that if you're

0:51:02

getting four percent yield

0:51:04

you're at best zero and at worst it's a

0:51:07

negative real yield of four percent

0:51:09

or something after credit adjustment so

0:51:12

that tells you that corporate bonds

0:51:14

sovereign debt

0:51:15

and junk bonds are no longer stores of

0:51:18

value

0:51:19

and currencies yield no interest

0:51:22

the u.s 30-year swap was 72 basis points

0:51:25

a year ago

0:51:26

today it's 180 175 basis points

0:51:31

and that's the best you're going to get

0:51:32

the eu 30-year swap is

0:51:34

20 basis points it's nothing there's no

0:51:37

yield

0:51:38

so what can you say you can say the fiat

0:51:41

standard

0:51:41

has broken down starting the year 2020

0:51:45

because at this point there is no

0:51:48

tangible store of value where all the

0:51:50

traditional treasury instruments are no

0:51:52

longer stores of value

0:51:54

now when did it start and i'm going over

0:51:57

this in my head and i just forgive me i

0:51:59

read your book you got me thinking i'm

0:52:01

literally thinking about this morning

0:52:02

but i'm thinking

0:52:03

i think it started to break down with

0:52:05

the japanese in 1980s

0:52:08

i think the japanese had a crisis the

0:52:10

crisis was

0:52:11

the digital revolution computer chip

0:52:14

came out

0:52:15

intel microsoft the japanese dominate

0:52:19

analog electronics the world shifts to

0:52:22

digital electronics their exports

0:52:24

start slipping and as the world moves to

0:52:27

the computer age the japanese economy

0:52:30

weakens their reaction is the central

0:52:32

bank starts to intervene

0:52:34

they're a closed system an authoritarian

0:52:38

a single government in a closed system

0:52:41

under economic

0:52:42

crisis and so they started they start

0:52:45

buying everything

0:52:46

price discovery disappears asset

0:52:49

inflation goes through the roof

0:52:50

real estate in tokyo goes through the

0:52:53

zombie companies start to manifest

0:52:56

themselves

0:52:57

the economy freezes and that's the first

0:53:00

place you see the breakdown of the fiat

0:53:02

standard the interest rate goes to

0:53:04

laughable numbers non-competitive

0:53:07

and it's like this self-referential

0:53:09

closed system it doesn't make any sense

0:53:11

whatsoever

0:53:12

and america looks at it and we're you

0:53:14

know in america we have

0:53:16

18 interest rates you know and so the

0:53:18

japanese response was

0:53:21

was central bank intervention and they

0:53:23

were the first major country and maybe

0:53:25

not the first because i

0:53:26

i'm not a student of china and every

0:53:28

other country

0:53:29

i just noticed in japan then what

0:53:32

happens next

0:53:33

america has the reagan revolution and so

0:53:35

reagan and volcker

0:53:37

really define the game plan until 88

0:53:41

and we have the fiat system lurching

0:53:43

toward normal you had savings accounts

0:53:46

that yield

0:53:46

six seven eight percent interest you

0:53:48

know the way you know that that there's

0:53:50

a semblance

0:53:51

of normalcy is checking accounts yields

0:53:54

zero and savings account yield eight

0:53:55

percent interest and the banking system

0:53:57

offers

0:53:58

those things you know a savings account

0:54:01

allows me to save money

0:54:02

if the money supply is debasing at seven

0:54:04

percent a year and the savings account

0:54:06

is yielding seven percent interest

0:54:08

there's some hope you know when i was a

0:54:10

kid there was hope

0:54:12

and then clinton came in and clinton

0:54:14

inherited a great economy

0:54:16

and microsoft's killing it and there's

0:54:18

the internet revolution and

0:54:19

and google and apple and this is the

0:54:21

rise of america and all of a sudden we

0:54:23

thought

0:54:24

the japanese were going to own

0:54:25

everything in america they were buying

0:54:27

the rockefeller center

0:54:28

sony was crushing everybody et cetera

0:54:32

so we lurched in 1980 at inflection

0:54:35

point

0:54:35

america got its mojo back and we thought

0:54:38

technology

0:54:39

and the internet you know that makes us

0:54:42

leaders we didn't think we were world

0:54:43

economic leaders when reagan was elected

0:54:46

i mean people really thought the

0:54:47

japanese they were setting up toyota

0:54:49

plants we're gonna

0:54:50

there's a movie gung ho we thought we're

0:54:52

gonna be working for the japanese

0:54:55

the world took a left turn the japanese

0:54:57

economy

0:54:58

missed the digital revolution and i

0:55:01

think this is deep seated in the

0:55:03

japanese language it's a pictographic

0:55:05

language

0:55:06

they didn't have the programming skills

0:55:08

they missed the the digital revolution

0:55:10

america started to rise the rise of the

0:55:13

western at

0:55:14

western europe the u.s started to

0:55:16

prosper from

0:55:18

digital productivity and clinton

0:55:20

inherited this

0:55:21

this very healthy economy from reagan

0:55:23

and clinton was kind of a moderate

0:55:26

and we went on to 2000 and then what

0:55:29

happens in 2000

0:55:31

the eu okay and before the eu

0:55:35

you had all these different currencies

0:55:37

and when you crossed

0:55:38

europe every currency had its own

0:55:40

interest rate and its own bank

0:55:42

and they're competitive with each other

0:55:44

and if a currency prints too much their

0:55:47

currency crashes

0:55:48

and no one's going to save them and so

0:55:50

there there are interest rates you go

0:55:52

look at the interest rate they're real

0:55:53

interest rates there's like a seven

0:55:54

percent

0:55:55

a six percent and eight percent right

0:55:58

there are consequences to irrationality

0:56:00

under the fiat standard

0:56:02

when there's a hundred central banks and

0:56:05

they're all competing right and you

0:56:06

talked about in your book

0:56:07

like there's all these central banks the

0:56:09

us as the currency swap was

0:56:12

it wasn't uh 87 or 90 of

0:56:16

all currency it was like 30. you can see

0:56:18

this manifest itself in 1980

0:56:21

because when you had different currency

0:56:23

systems

0:56:25

the chinese the japanese the indian

0:56:28

south america the german bank the uk

0:56:31

the french the u.s they're all different

0:56:33

currency systems

0:56:35

you know and the u.s had to raise their

0:56:36

interest rates and their consequences to

0:56:38

our inflation we had to take interest

0:56:40

rates to 18 or 19 percent to actually

0:56:42

fix that problem we couldn't print money

0:56:45

with impunity

0:56:46

it's like pissing in your own bathtub

0:56:49

right it's a small bathtub and there are

0:56:52

consequences to foiling your own bathtub

0:56:55

but when it's the big ocean there are no

0:56:57

consequences and you feel like you can

0:56:59

you know if you print a trillion dollars

0:57:02

in a 10 trillion dollar economy that's a

0:57:05

problem

0:57:05

and if you print a trillion dollars in a

0:57:08

50 trillion dollar global economy that's

0:57:10

two percent right that's

0:57:12

that just goes away right so in 1980 you

0:57:16

couldn't do it

0:57:17

and we started lurching toward globalism

0:57:20

and then the eu is this big change

0:57:22

and what happened well the eu came in

0:57:25

with a light hand

0:57:26

but it was a massive increase in

0:57:30

governmental authority and fiat

0:57:31

authority because now you had an eu

0:57:34

central bank in my opinion you know the

0:57:36

biggest beneficiary of the eu

0:57:38

when the eu formed the biggest

0:57:40

beneficiary was the us

0:57:43

because you saw every local country

0:57:46

it limited the ability of deutschmark

0:57:48

from competing with the u.s dollar i

0:57:50

think that was really the

0:57:51

uh it gave the dollar release of life

0:57:53

because it tied the deutsche mark with

0:57:54

weaker european currencies

0:57:55

here's what i saw when i traveled

0:57:58

through europe in the 90s

0:57:59

there were 10 languages the menus were

0:58:02

in 10 different languages

0:58:04

10 different currencies i had to change

0:58:07

money in every border

0:58:08

i started with the thousand dollars i

0:58:11

ended with the quote of 780

0:58:14

or 900 the money changing was expensive

0:58:18

and i couldn't read the street signs

0:58:20

when you travel through europe after the

0:58:22

formation of the eu

0:58:23

all the menu is converted to english eu

0:58:26

adopted

0:58:26

english is the second language you've

0:58:28

converted to the euro

0:58:31

and if you're living in portugal or

0:58:33

you're living in france or you're living

0:58:36

spain you're thinking well i had to i

0:58:38

had to give up portuguese and spanish

0:58:40

and italian for english

0:58:42

and i had to give up the paseta and the

0:58:45

lira for the euro but i might as well

0:58:47

just go and convert it to the dollar

0:58:49

the italians aren't going to adopt

0:58:51

french and so

0:58:52

it's almost like all the europeans

0:58:55

agreed to adopt english

0:58:57

and then they started pegging to the

0:58:58

dollar

0:59:00

and the us was the big beneficiary

0:59:03

of the formation of the eu because

0:59:06

now everybody had to accept english in

0:59:09

the dollar

0:59:09

and that played into tcpip and the

0:59:12

internet

0:59:13

and google and facebook and apple

0:59:16

and amazon and and the entire

0:59:20

u.s economy benefited and it was us

0:59:23

san francisco progressive views san

0:59:26

francisco technology

0:59:28

u.s law the american legal and economic

0:59:33

and cultural system encroached on europe

0:59:35

in a big way

0:59:37

we saw the formation of a western net

0:59:39

i'll call it western europe in the

0:59:41

united states

0:59:42

a billion person trading bloc

0:59:45

trading in dollars convertible dollars

0:59:49

trading in english language

0:59:50

uh subject to basically u.s trade law

0:59:54

so what happened next well the eu was

0:59:58

and there was a crisis and it used to be

1:00:00

that if i wanted to buy

1:00:02

italian bonds i could get eight percent

1:00:04

yield or seven percent yield

1:00:06

and the german bond yield was two

1:00:08

percent and the germans had the best

1:00:10

credit rating and the french were next

1:00:12

but the

1:00:12

you know the portuguese had a weaker one

1:00:14

and the italians had an awful credit

1:00:16

rating and their bonds yielded great

1:00:18

and the greeks you know like at some

1:00:21

point you could probably go back and

1:00:22

pull the bond yields it probably tells

1:00:24

the story

1:00:25

of the death of the fiat standard

1:00:28

right or the encroachment of the fiat

1:00:31

standard if you look at

1:00:32

bond yields in european countries from

1:00:37

on there's a point at which they all

1:00:40

pretty much pegged to uh the eu bond

1:00:44

yield right

1:00:45

and that was as the eu central bank

1:00:47

started taking responsibility for

1:00:49

the default of the greeks probably the

1:00:52

greek crisis was probably a form

1:00:54

a seminal event when the eu bailed out

1:00:57

greece

1:00:57

that was an expansion of the eu's

1:00:59

central bank i almost think about two

1:01:01

crises

1:01:03

you know we had the great financial

1:01:04

crisis when

1:01:06

the united states bailed out every bank

1:01:09

and we forced them all

1:01:10

to take hundreds of billions of dollars

1:01:12

and we bailed out every european bank

1:01:15

with us dollars and it seems like once

1:01:18

we did that

1:01:18

we owned them all like the us dollar

1:01:21

as the world reserve currency it went

1:01:24

from being

1:01:25

thirty percent to forty percent to sixty

1:01:27

percent to eighty percent to ninety

1:01:29

percent

1:01:30

after that crisis and it seems like

1:01:33

after the debt crisis of greek

1:01:35

and after the italian debt crisis when

1:01:37

the eu central bank

1:01:38

bailed out those countries the eu kind

1:01:41

of owned them as well

1:01:43

the summary is by the time this is all

1:01:46

said and done

1:01:47

interest rates in the european union

1:01:50

have crashed to zero

1:01:52

short-term interest rates are negative

1:01:55

long-term interest rates you know they

1:01:57

were like eight basis points for 30-year

1:02:00

money

1:02:00

on a swap few weeks ago and so

1:02:03

what you really got is the massive

1:02:06

expansion of

1:02:07

the eu central bank and the fed from the

1:02:09

year 2000

1:02:10

to the year 2020 and as they expanded

1:02:14

all corporate debt all sovereign debt

1:02:16

stopped being as an effective store of

1:02:19

value

1:02:20

the currencies became dominant

1:02:23

and for whatever reason the u.s currency

1:02:26

just got progressively stronger and

1:02:28

stronger from 1980

1:02:31

to the year 2020 and now

1:02:35

you know the entire transition

1:02:37

transformation has taken its

1:02:38

its whole so i guess what you're saying

1:02:41

is basically

1:02:42

bitcoin eats the store of value market

1:02:46

what assets do you see that essentially

1:02:49

disrupting what what do we get rid of do

1:02:51

you think government bonds make sense

1:02:53

anymore you know or do you see them

1:02:55

phased out

1:02:57

i bet you can track this the early fiat

1:03:00

standard

1:03:01

had gold as a store of value the early

1:03:04

fiat stage

1:03:05

and then the mid stage of the fiat

1:03:07

standard i think had sovereign debt as a

1:03:10

store of value

1:03:11

and then i think the late stage the

1:03:14

twilight years

1:03:16

of the fiat standard i think it has

1:03:18

stock indexes

1:03:20

the rise of the vanguard 500 and john

1:03:22

bogle

1:03:23

and the s p the dow the s p the nasdaq

1:03:27

these stock indexes

1:03:28

they emerged as the store of value i

1:03:30

know maybe 2010

1:03:32

at what point did the swiss central bank

1:03:34

start holding stocks

1:03:36

2011 i think okay bingo when i was

1:03:40

getting started in business nobody would

1:03:42

have reasonably considered

1:03:44

stock indexes you know as a store value

1:03:47

they thought as an investment

1:03:49

but vanguard was was very successful

1:03:52

and the s p 500 is very successful i

1:03:55

think people at some point realized

1:03:58

bonds are only covering half of

1:04:00

inflation

1:04:02

cash isn't covering anything and the

1:04:04

stock indexes

1:04:06

start to track your monetary expansion

1:04:09

safedeen i think they're i mean pretty

1:04:10

close right like

1:04:12

s p is like seven eight eight percent a

1:04:14

year for a decade

1:04:15

yep i think that the free market

1:04:18

migrated i mean

1:04:19

the death of the savings account forced

1:04:22

everybody

1:04:23

probably into first bond indexes and

1:04:26

then stock indexes

1:04:28

and today 22 year old uber driver

1:04:32

knows that the savings account is

1:04:34

worthless you know if i have cash at

1:04:36

like some of these bills bulge bracket

1:04:38

banks

1:04:39

you know in their money market funds

1:04:41

they're actually charging like

1:04:43

they're offering 15 basis points yield

1:04:45

and charging 25 basis points management

1:04:48

the literal the fee is higher than the

1:04:51

yield

1:04:51

on the account the marketplace

1:04:55

has migrated and it's being forced

1:04:58

and stage one was gold stage two was

1:05:00

sovereign debt

1:05:01

and then the rise of corporate triple a

1:05:04

rated debt

1:05:05

you could almost say that in order to

1:05:06

replace the gold standard

1:05:08

we had to have an army of credit rating

1:05:10

agencies the s

1:05:11

you know moody's and s p and you could

1:05:15

the rise of the junk bond market might

1:05:17

be explained by this people

1:05:19

desperately chasing after store of value

1:05:21

without equity risk finally they threw

1:05:23

in the towel and they started absorbing

1:05:24

some equity risk

1:05:26

and then in 2020 we kind of kicked the

1:05:28

thing into high gear right march of 2020

1:05:31

is the point where

1:05:32

everything just breaks like because five

1:05:36

six seven percent money expansion

1:05:38

against an eight percent

1:05:39

s p index and against a five percent

1:05:42

bond yield or

1:05:44

four percent credit worthy yield and

1:05:46

eight percent to ten percent junk bond

1:05:49

you can sort of almost make that work

1:05:52

but it stops working when the money

1:05:54

supply expands by 25

1:05:56

and the s p yield is 15 and the

1:05:59

junk bond yield is four percent an

1:06:01

argument

1:06:02

yield

1:06:08

it only worked in the 80s and the 90s

1:06:08

because essentially

1:06:09

it was financed by borrowing from the

1:06:11

future through manipulated interest

1:06:13

rates

1:06:13

and so effectively you know it's not

1:06:15

like it was working and now it broke

1:06:17

it was a short-term fix that was that

1:06:19

was inevitably going to break down

1:06:20

eventually

1:06:22

i think right now the only two story and

1:06:24

by the way the people are smarter in

1:06:26

some ways

1:06:27

than the politicians and mainstream

1:06:29

media because

1:06:31

even the 23 year old uber driver knows

1:06:35

that they're probably better off to buy

1:06:36

tesla stock or buy a market basket of

1:06:39

technology stocks

1:06:41

or even take a flyer on gamestop or buy

1:06:44

bitcoin

1:06:45

than they are to put their money in a

1:06:47

savings account and wait

1:06:48

i think that um what's happened is

1:06:51

people have migrated

1:06:52

the smart money has determined that

1:06:55

there's only two stores of value left

1:06:58

really smart money that's brave says

1:07:01

bitcoin if you're really progressive and

1:07:03

if you've got some courage

1:07:04

then you realize that the that the best

1:07:06

store of value is bitcoin is it's

1:07:09

digital gold the other layer of smart

1:07:11

money

1:07:12

that is either very comfortable they're

1:07:15

already wealthy

1:07:16

they've got plenty of money and they're

1:07:17

comfortable or they're conventional

1:07:19

the comfortable conventional smart money

1:07:22

has decided that big tech or growth is

1:07:25

the store of value

1:07:27

and that's the best surrogate for that

1:07:28

is nasdaq if i go

1:07:30

right now case for bitcoin and i look

1:07:34

what does that show me roi one year it's

1:07:37

saying bitcoin is 356 percent

1:07:39

up nasdaq is up 43

1:07:43

gold is up 14.7 s p is up 16

1:07:47

and treasuries are two and your money

1:07:50

expansion was 25

1:07:52

or what you know whatever you're gonna

1:07:53

plug in and if you plug in

1:07:55

15 going forward you can see you'll

1:07:58

tread water with gold and s

1:08:00

p maybe by the way i wouldn't i think

1:08:03

you're more likely to tread water with

1:08:05

the s p

1:08:07

i think with gold the gold is in a

1:08:09

parabolic

1:08:11

or a ballistic sorry it's a ballistic

1:08:13

trajectory

1:08:14

it got a boost in the crisis now it's

1:08:17

losing momentum

1:08:18

it's broken down in the last six months

1:08:21

and it's about to crash

1:08:22

and you're going to see people short

1:08:24

gold reallocate from gold the price is

1:08:26

going to crash

1:08:27

and it's probably the scariest possible

1:08:30

investment right now

1:08:31

because gold only exists as long as

1:08:34

people are looking for a non-sovereign

1:08:36

store of value

1:08:38

and you only need one right and there's

1:08:40

only one that can be

1:08:43

and you pretty much have to be brain

1:08:46

to be allocating to gold versus bitcoin

1:08:49

in the year 2021.

1:08:51

you're just gonna have to like go

1:08:53

through mental gymnastics

1:08:55

so i can buy the argument that i buy a

1:08:58

market basket of all the stocks because

1:09:00

uh because you know that you're just

1:09:03

buying the economy

1:09:04

but i can't really buy the argument of

1:09:06

gold anymore and of course

1:09:08

treasuries are disasters because you're

1:09:11

long money

1:09:12

not only you taking on cash that's

1:09:14

losing 15

1:09:15

of its purchasing power a year you're

1:09:17

locking yourself in for 20 to 30 year

1:09:19

duration

1:09:20

by the time you get the cash back you're

1:09:22

gonna have lost 95

1:09:24

of your money so that's just foolish

1:09:27

but you've got growth right everybody

1:09:29

wants growth they'll take growth

1:09:31

discounting risk to zero they'll even

1:09:33

take the prospect

1:09:35

of growth right like if you just tell me

1:09:38

a story

1:09:39

and if i can't have growth then they'll

1:09:42

buy gamestop

1:09:43

because at least there's the potential

1:09:46

if i can't have growth i'll take

1:09:48

speculation of growth and if i can't

1:09:49

have speculation of growth

1:09:51

i'll just take speculation of a short

1:09:54

squeeze

1:09:55

all of those are more compelling than

1:09:58

anything

1:09:59

left in the fiat system yeah and i think

1:10:01

you know bitcoin becomes more and more

1:10:03

compelling

1:10:04

over time sure there'll definitely be

1:10:06

stocks and investing in stocks has us

1:10:08

placed but i think

1:10:09

for the store of value market that's

1:10:11

going to be distinct from money that you

1:10:13

want to risk on high growth

1:10:14

high risk stocks so the interesting

1:10:16

thing will be to see

1:10:17

how this develops now you've been saying

1:10:20

that you don't think bitcoin threatens

1:10:22

the dollar so you would you say that

1:10:23

bitcoin threatens treasuries but doesn't

1:10:26

threaten the dollar and therefore

1:10:29

you know we can continue to see maybe go

1:10:31

just more inflation in the dollar but

1:10:33

governments continue to evaluate

1:10:35

against bitcoin and continue to collect

1:10:36

taxes from bitcoin so bitcoin replaces

1:10:38

their treasuries puts them on a tight

1:10:39

leash

1:10:40

and has makes their inflation a little

1:10:42

bit more transparent but their dollar

1:10:44

continues to survive is that how you see

1:10:46

yeah i don't think it's very

1:10:47

constructive for the community to focus

1:10:50

upon bitcoin replacing the dollar it's

1:10:53

it's a crypto anarchist idea i could be

1:10:56

more supportive of

1:10:58

bitcoin replacing the zimbabwe dollar

1:11:01

or the venezuelan boulevard like

1:11:04

in a government where all the

1:11:07

institutions of government have broken

1:11:10

an utterly corrupt dysfunctional

1:11:12

government

1:11:13

where they they can't function anymore

1:11:15

and that's a hyper-inflationary

1:11:17

environment

1:11:18

i'm probably more supportive of that

1:11:19

right because there people are going to

1:11:22

starve to death

1:11:23

so there's billions of people in

1:11:24

collapsing economies where the currency

1:11:27

is collapsing

1:11:28

they're some kind of stable currency

1:11:31

it might be in a stable coin like the us

1:11:34

dollar

1:11:34

sitting on a crypto rail backed by

1:11:37

bitcoin

1:11:38

which might be what tether is or what

1:11:40

something is i think that that's

1:11:42

probably

1:11:43

got a value right i mean that's probably

1:11:45

got a place but

1:11:46

in the united states and in europe as

1:11:49

the fiat currency expands

1:11:53

it maintains its place as a medium of

1:11:56

exchange

1:11:57

and a lawful currency and as currency i

1:12:00

mean as legal currency

1:12:02

and it will and we should hope it will

1:12:03

because i don't think anybody wants

1:12:05

you know france or germany or the us

1:12:08

that look like zimbabwe

1:12:10

right i mean those are literally

1:12:11

countries where the rule of law

1:12:13

and the right to property break down

1:12:16

when the rule of law

1:12:18

and your right to freedom of speech or

1:12:20

the right to life liberty and property

1:12:23

break down you've got a situation of

1:12:26

true anarchy

1:12:27

and then uh i suppose if you're a crypto

1:12:30

anarchist and you support

1:12:31

reinstalling free speech and right to

1:12:35

property via crypto network

1:12:37

that's ethical right so i get that right

1:12:41

that makes sense but in a country that

1:12:43

has a rule of law

1:12:45

and a right to property the logical

1:12:47

thing that happens

1:12:48

is when people lose faith in the

1:12:50

currency they migrate the gold

1:12:53

when gold isn't fast enough but gold is

1:12:56

an antiquated

1:12:57

elitist asset right i mean the criticism

1:13:01

of gold that people should focus on is

1:13:03

that it's elitist

1:13:04

how do 500 million people buy 1700

1:13:08

worth of gold calculate what is the

1:13:11

markup

1:13:11

on 1700 worth of gold coins

1:13:14

purchased 87 at a time right i mean

1:13:17

isn't that like 40 percent

1:13:19

markup like like aren't you looking at i

1:13:21

mean you want

1:13:22

elitist is i'm gonna basically pay

1:13:24

double right i mean even

1:13:26

coins or coins are expensive if you want

1:13:29

to get gold

1:13:30

at a reasonable price you have to buy a

1:13:32

bar of london good delivery gold which

1:13:34

is 400 ounces at a time

1:13:37

that's eight hundred thousand dollar

1:13:39

blocks of gold and you probably have to

1:13:41

buy like five of them from jp

1:13:43

morgan to get traded anywhere close to

1:13:46

reasonably

1:13:47

right so gold is an is an elitist

1:13:51

store of value it is not accessible to

1:13:54

the billion people in in

1:13:55

the western world in western europe and

1:13:57

the us it's certainly not accessible to

1:14:00

the 7.8 billion people on the planet

1:14:03

and so if you're going to deliver a

1:14:05

store of value

1:14:07

to everybody with a mobile phone on

1:14:09

earth bitcoin is your best bet

1:14:11

bitcoin is going to be running

1:14:13

transaction fees of

1:14:15

you know less than one percent one two

1:14:17

percent would be high

1:14:18

you know like whatever it is it's going

1:14:21

to be

1:14:21

nothing compared to the cost to acquire

1:14:24

and store

1:14:25

and maneuver gold gold is elitist and

1:14:28

gold is antiquated

1:14:30

because i can't move 37

1:14:33

worth of gold you know from point a to

1:14:36

point b

1:14:37

to pay for an uber ride i can't fund

1:14:39

with gold

1:14:40

gold is not bankable gold is slow money

1:14:44

with bitcoin we're on the verge of a

1:14:47

world where

1:14:49

you know you'll have a trillion dollars

1:14:50

of bitcoin you can plug

1:14:52

a billion consumer accounts into it and

1:14:55

you can offer people the ability to

1:14:56

borrow against the bitcoin

1:14:58

at four percent interest by the way jp

1:15:01

morgan

1:15:02

offers you securitized loans up to loan

1:15:05

to value 50 percent

1:15:06

against conventional assets at libor

1:15:10

50 basis points of your institutional

1:15:12

customer

1:15:13

you could get libor plus 200 basis

1:15:15

points

1:15:16

if you're a consumer so you're talking

1:15:18

about two percent interest

1:15:19

or three percent interest so in a world

1:15:22

where

1:15:23

a major bank were to plug into bitcoin

1:15:26

there's no reason why we couldn't get to

1:15:28

a point where

1:15:29

a billion people could borrow money

1:15:31

against bitcoin at two percent interest

1:15:34

and then never sell the bitcoin forever

1:15:36

i think in the next 36 months we'll see

1:15:38

percent four or five percent consumer

1:15:41

loans against bitcoin

1:15:42

when's the last time you got a loan

1:15:43

against gold no

1:15:45

you know and then we're on to this next

1:15:47

thing which is okay well right off gold

1:15:49

what's next well uh bond indexes

1:15:53

no so we we migrate to stock indexes

1:15:57

i think the free market in the western

1:15:59

world is inventing

1:16:01

asset classes to service stores of value

1:16:04

and they've been doing them legally and

1:16:06

ethically and

1:16:07

the government allows you to create

1:16:09

asset classes i mean

1:16:11

when a trillion dollars moved into the

1:16:13

vanguard 500 the s p

1:16:15

500 the government didn't block that

1:16:18

so i think that that the right way to

1:16:20

think of it is

1:16:22

bitcoin as a store of value asset class

1:16:25

as digital gold

1:16:26

growing to be 10 trillion dollars

1:16:29

and then 20 and then 40. the big model i

1:16:33

is a monetary planet and let's say the

1:16:35

monetary planet is 500 trillion dollars

1:16:38

it's a gaseous planet

1:16:40

the outside of it is a hundred trillion

1:16:41

dollars worth of m2

1:16:43

or m3 money currency derivatives and the

1:16:47

like euros dollars

1:16:49

and so that's currency that's moving

1:16:51

through

1:16:52

all the governments on earth and that's

1:16:54

going to continue as long as there are

1:16:55

governments on earth

1:16:56

then inside that is 400 trillion dollars

1:16:59

worth of

1:17:00

other assets and it's broken up between

1:17:02

real estate and collectibles and stocks

1:17:04

and credit

1:17:05

instruments and bonds and derivatives

1:17:08

350 trillion of the 400 trillion or

1:17:12

i don't know some maybe it's not that

1:17:14

maybe 200

1:17:16

trillion of the 400 trillion is what

1:17:19

i'll call

1:17:20

currency derivatives their value is

1:17:23

based

1:17:23

substantially or in part on the the

1:17:26

discounted value of the future cash

1:17:27

flows of the

1:17:29

asset so stocks valued on future cash

1:17:31

flows

1:17:32

real estate value commercial real estate

1:17:34

valued on future cash flows

1:17:36

and bonds valued on future cash flows

1:17:39

those are

1:17:39

our currency derivatives now inside that

1:17:43

is a higher quality set of assets i'm

1:17:46

going to call them

1:17:47

trophy assets collectible assets a beach

1:17:50

house in the hamptons

1:17:51

palm beach a picasso even a trophy

1:17:54

equity

1:17:55

to the extent that i brag about owning

1:17:56

disney because i own disney because i

1:17:58

love mickey mouse because mickey mouse

1:18:00

is part of my formative experiences

1:18:02

a trophy piece of debt it's a piece of

1:18:05

debt for the children's hospital in my

1:18:06

neighborhood because

1:18:07

they saved my kids life like something

1:18:10

that you would

1:18:11

hold and you would value because it's

1:18:13

part of your

1:18:14

self-identity a football team soccer

1:18:16

franchise

1:18:17

things that people love and they would

1:18:19

hold them

1:18:21

irregardless of the discounted of the

1:18:23

forecast of the discounted cash flows in

1:18:25

the future your personal home

1:18:27

right your personal home has value to

1:18:29

you your personal car your personal

1:18:31

yacht your personal plane

1:18:33

these things have value to you because

1:18:36

you love them

1:18:37

and there will be pride from your cold

1:18:39

dead fingers

1:18:40

and it doesn't matter what the interest

1:18:42

rate is it's your house

1:18:45

it's your lake house so that stuff is

1:18:47

more it's harder asset

1:18:49

and then in the middle of that is a 10

1:18:51

trillion dollar

1:18:53

hardcore of gold which we'll call

1:18:56

non-sovereign store of value

1:18:58

fungible money and inside that the

1:19:01

center of the earth is this

1:19:03

isn't this this burning red-hot thing at

1:19:06

the center of the earth

1:19:07

that's crypto there's a trillion dollar

1:19:11

crypto fire in the middle of the 500

1:19:14

trillion dollar planet and that

1:19:15

trillion dollar crypto fire was started

1:19:18

from a spark by satoshi

1:19:21

and it's burning and it went from a

1:19:22

billion to 10 billion to 100 billion to

1:19:24

a trillion

1:19:25

the bitcoin fire and that is

1:19:29

the hardest fastest smartest

1:19:33

strongest monetary asset

1:19:36

in the history of the of the human race

1:19:39

and it is

1:19:40

expanding and it is boiling

1:19:43

these things and it is boiling gold and

1:19:46

then the first thing it's going to do

1:19:48

is it's going to replace gold and gold

1:19:50

will collapse into the crypto fire

1:19:53

and then it will suck in sovereign

1:19:56

credit instruments uh negative yielding

1:19:59

sovereign debt

1:20:01

to the extent that that's held as a

1:20:02

store of value it will subsume

1:20:04

some debt indexes and some equity

1:20:07

indexes

1:20:08

and it'll probably expand from 10

1:20:10

trillion to 20 to 40

1:20:12

to 80 to 100 and it could get all the

1:20:15

way to say 200 trillion

1:20:17

and when it's 200 trillion it'll be the

1:20:19

stabilizing

1:20:21

framework and the gaseous monetary

1:20:24

planet

1:20:25

will go from 500 trillion up by 10

1:20:29

to 550 maybe it's plus 15

1:20:32

a year right if it's plus 15 a year your

1:20:35

500 trillion dollar monetary planet will

1:20:38

expand

1:20:39

to become an 8 900 trillion dollar

1:20:43

what's after a trillion is a quad blood

1:20:46

quadrillion we're headed toward a

1:20:49

quadrillion

1:20:50

a quad planet and the bitcoin will

1:20:53

expand it

1:20:54

it's at 300 250 300 a year for the last

1:20:58

decade and that's about as fast as it

1:21:01

go because anything faster than that you

1:21:05

rips the wings off the airplane human

1:21:07

beings

1:21:08

people ask how fast can human beings

1:21:10

accept change

1:21:12

i think if you look at the history of

1:21:14

business

1:21:15

companies growing faster than 200 a year

1:21:18

are rare

1:21:21

i mean that's pretty much as fast as it

1:21:22

can go so it'll go 200 percent

1:21:25

and it'll track that way and i think at

1:21:27

some point when it

1:21:28

when it crosses gold it'll slow down to

1:21:32

150 percent

1:21:33

and 120 percent you could probably work

1:21:35

it out

1:21:36

over the next 20 years as it goes from a

1:21:39

trillion

1:21:40

up to 200 trillion might take 30 years

1:21:44

might take 20 years might take 10 years

1:21:47

somewhere between 10 and 30 years right

1:21:50

if you look at the rate and and where

1:21:52

we're headed is

1:21:54

a world where there's eight billion

1:21:56

people on the planet with a mobile phone

1:21:58

and those eight billion people are

1:22:00

storing value

1:22:02

in digital gold and probably that mobile

1:22:05

device

1:22:06

is gonna have a hardware wallet embedded

1:22:08

in it that's going to be

1:22:10

the the token and you'll have

1:22:12

multi-signature

1:22:14

multi-hardware wallets securing

1:22:17

digital gold which has become i don't

1:22:20

know what is it going to be a third or

1:22:22

you have to ask the question

1:22:23

theoretically sefedeen

1:22:26

what portion of the monetary planet

1:22:29

should rationally be store of value

1:22:34

and i think it i think it's it's

1:22:36

self-equivalate

1:22:38

because as more monetary energy

1:22:41

it's like magnetism you're demagnetizing

1:22:43

something you're demonetizing something

1:22:45

as more monetary energy falls off of

1:22:48

gold and off of silver and then off of

1:22:50

indexes

1:22:51

into into bitcoin price discovery

1:22:54

will return to these other assets so

1:22:57

price discovery is going to return to

1:22:59

gold it's going to approach its

1:23:00

ornamental

1:23:01

and antique value and the price

1:23:03

discovery will return to silver

1:23:05

and price discovery will return to

1:23:07

stocks and bonds

1:23:09

what you can assume is that in a free

1:23:12

market

1:23:13

price discovery will return the bond

1:23:15

prices will fall the yields will

1:23:17

increase

1:23:18

real estate prices will fall the yields

1:23:20

will increase for commercial real estate

1:23:22

you will see stock prices fall dividend

1:23:25

yields and yields will increase

1:23:28

everything will rationalize in a free

1:23:31

market

1:23:32

market dynamics conventional you know

1:23:35

market theory

1:23:36

dictates that no asset can be any more

1:23:39

attractive than any other asset in a

1:23:42

free market

1:23:43

because capital will flow and migrate so

1:23:46

as to equalize the expected return

1:23:49

on all assets now what you're going to

1:23:52

see is

1:23:53

is certain markets become not free

1:23:56

right i mean the the way you break that

1:23:58

is you pass laws

1:24:00

and they'll be you know in the extreme

1:24:02

cases they'll be what you're seeing

1:24:04

going on in india right now

1:24:06

what you saw in china makes it

1:24:08

impossible to

1:24:10

uh to convert room mb into bitcoin and

1:24:14

india is threatened by it nigeria's

1:24:16

threatened by it

1:24:18

you're gonna see back and forth and and

1:24:20

you'll see

1:24:21

some countries will embrace it and other

1:24:23

countries will

1:24:24

run from it but you know the chinese

1:24:27

made google illegal

1:24:28

twitter's illegal facebook's illegal

1:24:32

right that's gonna happen and it didn't

1:24:34

stop them from being successful other

1:24:37

places

1:24:38

i think you'll probably see the western

1:24:40

world will embrace

1:24:41

digital gold i think you'll see banana

1:24:44

republics

1:24:45

corrupt regimes attempt to resist it

1:24:48

on the other hand you know i've traveled

1:24:50

all through china and

1:24:52

everybody's got a vpn and they're

1:24:54

looking at twitter and facebook accounts

1:24:56

with vpns

1:24:57

it's really difficult and there's can

1:25:00

they actually stop it

1:25:02

not really right i mean they can't stop

1:25:04

it they can

1:25:05

they actually have a hard time stopping

1:25:08

money traveling on crypto rails

1:25:10

over vpns and the tor network on the

1:25:13

other hand

1:25:14

will they suffer from it yeah there's a

1:25:17

big cost

1:25:18

to not have google i mean there's a big

1:25:21

cost to not have

1:25:22

youtube right there's a big cost not of

1:25:25

electricity

1:25:26

right there's there's cost to reject

1:25:28

technology

1:25:30

if your money moves a million times

1:25:32

faster then that means the cost of

1:25:34

capital for

1:25:35

the world that embraces the technology

1:25:38

drops

1:25:39

and that means that innovation

1:25:41

accelerates and

1:25:42

you can cling to your gold coins and

1:25:44

your giant stone

1:25:45

coins of the app people and the whatever

1:25:47

but it

1:25:48

at some point there's a cost of not

1:25:50

having google maps man try

1:25:52

yeah cars that don't drive themself

1:25:56

you know yeah there's there's a cost and

1:26:00

eventually

1:26:01

reflects itself in the cuba standard of

1:26:03

living or the north korean standard of

1:26:05

living and even the chinese can't

1:26:07

necessarily stop this thing so bottom

1:26:10

line is

1:26:11

i think the the fiat system is going to

1:26:13

continue as a

1:26:14

currency and it should right the

1:26:16

currency rails work fine

1:26:18

what people still haven't got through

1:26:20

their head is i could have

1:26:22

150 percent of my

1:26:25

assets in bitcoin all right

1:26:28

you can have a million dollars you can

1:26:30

buy a million in bitcoin you can

1:26:31

mortgage your house buy another 500 000

1:26:34

in bitcoin you could take out a personal

1:26:36

loan against your future earnings if

1:26:38

you're a doctor buy another 500 bitcoin

1:26:41

if it was me i'd i'd mortgage my house

1:26:44

i'd sell my gold

1:26:46

and i would raise debt and i would buy

1:26:48

bitcoin

1:26:49

you can have a hundred percent of your

1:26:52

assets in bitcoin

1:26:54

get a bank that will give you a loan

1:26:56

against bitcoin

1:26:58

if bitcoin is going up at 25 a year

1:27:02

and if your expenses are going up at

1:27:04

five percent a year

1:27:06

you can borrow money to pay for your

1:27:08

coffee and to pay your rent and to drive

1:27:11

your car

1:27:11

and to live your life forever never pay

1:27:14

it back

1:27:14

keep the bitcoin and your debt to equity

1:27:16

ratio will fall and so

1:27:18

at some point you could literally fund

1:27:20

everything in

1:27:22

bitcoin and so you don't need to replace

1:27:25

the dollars my point

1:27:26

you don't really want to spend bitcoin

1:27:29

what you want to do

1:27:31

is you want to plug your bitcoin account

1:27:34

a visa card and you want to pay for

1:27:36

things with visa

1:27:37

and you want to run up a debt and you

1:27:40

never want to pay it off

1:27:41

and you want to die owing money

1:27:45

because it's not that complicated

1:27:48

you have a million dollars and it

1:27:50

doubles every year you eventually have a

1:27:52

hundred million dollars you can spend

1:27:54

a hundred thousand dollars a year going

1:27:56

up at twenty percent a year

1:27:59

or you can spend a hundred thousand

1:28:00

going up at 50 percent a year

1:28:03

and you will die with 90 million dollars

1:28:05

of equity 10 million dollars in debt

1:28:07

never having paid tax

1:28:10

why and so and you don't need to replace

1:28:13

the euro

1:28:14

you don't need to replace the dollar you

1:28:16

don't need to get rid of your visa card

1:28:19

right those things don't matter yeah i

1:28:21

think another another argument in favor

1:28:23

of this is the fact that

1:28:24

um maybe bitcoin is actually reducing

1:28:28

the demand for the creation of dollars

1:28:30

and euros because

1:28:31

if people don't buy as many treasuries

1:28:34

as they do

1:28:35

then fewer dollars are created people

1:28:37

don't get into as much debt

1:28:39

than fewer dollars are creating so

1:28:40

people are holding bitcoin instead of

1:28:42

holding

1:28:42

debt instruments on their balance sheet

1:28:44

then less

1:28:46

debt takes place and as the key concept

1:28:48

in the fiat standard is that fiat is

1:28:50

so basically bitcoin reduces the demand

1:28:53

and the supply for

1:28:54

fiat but i guess it's it's you know

1:28:57

unfortunate it's not a choice we get to

1:28:59

make it's a

1:29:00

it's an outcome of markets so the

1:29:01

question is can the dollar hold on and

1:29:03

can the people

1:29:04

um printing the dollar manage to

1:29:07

maintain the bitcoin store i guess

1:29:08

that's

1:29:09

uh that's what we'll see but um there

1:29:11

are there are reasons why

1:29:13

we can see bitcoin continue to grow

1:29:14

without the dollar having to collapse

1:29:16

i've got another question for you

1:29:18

and switching gears a little bit you've

1:29:21

uh waltzed into the bitcoin world at a

1:29:23

very very good time you know you came in

1:29:26

at what it was at seven or eight or nine

1:29:28

thousand and you know within a couple of

1:29:30

weeks

1:29:31

we are now almost 50 to 47 i think right

1:29:36

um obviously part of that is probably

1:29:38

you and the impact that you have had

1:29:39

and all the evangelism that you've done

1:29:42

but also you know we've

1:29:43

we've had periods in bitcoin before

1:29:45

where prices have

1:29:47

declined for quite a while so you know

1:29:49

if if this was high school you know you

1:29:51

would be signing up for high school the

1:29:52

week of the prom and the graduation you

1:29:54

you didn't sit with us through the

1:29:56

dark days of you know holding the buying

1:29:59

the one thousand dollar top and watching

1:30:01

it go down to 150

1:30:03

over two years so i'm wondering you know

1:30:05

you went in

1:30:06

at a time when this was a possibility we

1:30:08

could have had another two years you

1:30:10

you may have chanced upon the bitcoin

1:30:13

in 2018 and bitcoin hasn't changed much

1:30:16

between 2018 and 2020

1:30:18

but if you bought in march 2018 you know

1:30:20

you would have

1:30:21

uh witnessed the decline for quite a

1:30:23

while

1:30:24

so i'm wondering was your entry

1:30:27

you know where are you just thinking all

1:30:28

right this is this is now

1:30:31

this is better technology i'm just going

1:30:32

to be buying as much as i can

1:30:34

or was there some kind of price analysis

1:30:38

going on in a sense so

1:30:39

we've consolidated for a while so most

1:30:42

likely we're going to be getting another

1:30:43

um jump would you have bought as

1:30:46

aggressively in 2018

1:30:48

and do you follow any particular models

1:30:50

for thinking of the price

1:30:51

so say if i first of all it's better to

1:30:54

be lucky than good

1:30:55

absolutely and i would say to you i'm

1:30:58

very lucky

1:31:00

then i look back at my life i've i can i

1:31:03

can count all sorts of

1:31:04

fortunate uh occurrences so i'm lucky

1:31:07

second

1:31:08

i think the best time in human history

1:31:10

to buy bitcoin

1:31:12

was starting in march of 2020.

1:31:16

right if you want to look at this entire

1:31:17

thing starting in march of 2020 the

1:31:20

world

1:31:21

changed forever that was the risk reward

1:31:24

point

1:31:24

where the risk had diminished by 99

1:31:28

and the return and the use case at amp

1:31:31

by a factor of 100.

1:31:32

like it was an inflection point in march

1:31:34

of 2020.

1:31:36

look i wouldn't have bought it at all in

1:31:38

february of 2020. i didn't know it

1:31:40

existed i didn't really

1:31:41

care think about it the world was

1:31:44

totally different

1:31:45

in february versus in april so

1:31:49

i think march is the beginning of the

1:31:51

new era

1:31:53

i think the people in the bitcoin

1:31:55

industry i think that they're

1:31:57

to a certain degree they're biased by

1:32:00

their history

1:32:01

and it's a liability for them i think

1:32:05

it's baggage

1:32:05

that they should lose i think most

1:32:07

people in the bitcoin industry

1:32:09

and most people in business most people

1:32:11

in life they want to draw on their

1:32:13

experience

1:32:14

because there's a bias that i i want to

1:32:17

make decisions based on my experience

1:32:19

and i want to feel that everything that

1:32:20

i experienced was worthwhile

1:32:22

and if i felt pain i would like for it

1:32:25

to have meant something

1:32:27

right so what if i looked at you and i

1:32:29

said safe like nothing that you

1:32:31

experienced between 2010 and 2020 was

1:32:34

relevant

1:32:35

and you could basically flush it all

1:32:37

down a toilet and take a clean sheet of

1:32:39

paper and start again

1:32:41

that doesn't feel good right like

1:32:43

psychologically it's hard

1:32:45

to let go of that but let me give you an

1:32:47

example

1:32:48

of inflection point for 10 years before

1:32:51

march we had tried to use video

1:32:54

conferencing and i used webex

1:32:56

and my experiences were uniformly awful

1:32:59

for the entire 10 years

1:33:01

i could probably write a book on all of

1:33:02

the bad meetings and all of the awful

1:33:05

dysfunctional business results that came

1:33:07

from that

1:33:08

and i fired people that wanted to use

1:33:10

video conferencing and wanted to work

1:33:12

remotely the previous year

1:33:14

okay and i had lots of experience and

1:33:17

then in march

1:33:18

we decided to use zoom and zoom was a

1:33:21

hundred times better

1:33:22

and i had only good experiences and the

1:33:24

truth of the matter is

1:33:26

the entire decade of experience i had

1:33:29

with video conferencing was of no value

1:33:31

whatsoever it actually just

1:33:33

saddled me with a prejudicial bias

1:33:35

because i had

1:33:37

i had scars and i had pain

1:33:40

and it's all irrelevant okay so

1:33:43

after march everybody on earth needed

1:33:47

bitcoin a thousand companies you heard

1:33:50

russ last week he said i had 20 clients

1:33:53

at the beginning of the year i had 280

1:33:55

institutional clients at the end of the

1:33:58

i have 90 in the pipeline now russell

1:34:01

have a thousand

1:34:02

clients he'll go from 20 to a thousand

1:34:05

all of his experience before march all

1:34:08

of your forecasts before

1:34:09

march irrelevant it's what i said to

1:34:13

keith mccullough all your models

1:34:15

destroyed why are they destroyed because

1:34:19

they're based

1:34:20

uh they're based upon the statistical

1:34:22

interaction

1:34:24

a tidal wave hits the beach

1:34:27

okay i drop a bomb on your head

1:34:31

your entire history living in the town

1:34:33

or playing on the beach

1:34:34

irrelevant irrelevant you want it to

1:34:38

matter

1:34:39

it doesn't matter right when a hundred

1:34:42

trillion dollars of capital

1:34:44

comes through a nozzle it doesn't matter

1:34:48

like if you took every trade of bitcoin

1:34:51

from the point that satoshi did the

1:34:53

whatever and the pizza transfer

1:34:55

took place all the way through you know

1:34:58

the blow off top

1:35:00

all of it is irrelevant

1:35:03

let me explain it a different way if

1:35:05

elon musk

1:35:06

woke up tomorrow and decided screw it

1:35:10

i'm buying 10 billion dollars of bitcoin

1:35:12

instead of one and a half billion

1:35:13

dollars of bitcoin

1:35:16

that one decision renders irrelevant

1:35:20

all of the studying of bitcoin's

1:35:23

trajectory between today

1:35:26

and march last march

1:35:29

one person one thing makes a difference

1:35:33

and likewise march rendered irrelevant

1:35:36

the statistical models in the history

1:35:38

before

1:35:39

what's going on right now is on february

1:35:43

on monday the day that you woke up if

1:35:46

you read the news

1:35:48

the world changed again you have to keep

1:35:51

redoing your models the human race right

1:35:55

i mean

1:35:56

read paleo theory we ran around getting

1:35:58

chased by wolves and apes for three or

1:36:00

four million years and

1:36:02

starving to death life was difficult

1:36:06

and 10 000 years ago we invented

1:36:07

agriculture life changed again

1:36:10

100 years ago life changed again the

1:36:12

life of a human being today

1:36:15

the challenges the dynamic how many

1:36:17

children get up

1:36:19

and worry you know worry about getting

1:36:21

eaten

1:36:22

by a wild animal today

1:36:25

right it's like it's irrelevant right

1:36:28

that the history of the human race

1:36:30

is irrelevant to a decision

1:36:33

like you're going to get in a car and

1:36:35

drive the car you can kill yourself in

1:36:37

three seconds

1:36:39

what matters is you're in the freaking

1:36:42

when you engineer a new system it

1:36:45

completely renders

1:36:47

irrelevant your history if i take a gun

1:36:50

and i point it at your head and there's

1:36:52

a bullet in it

1:36:54

nothing in the world that you've lived

1:36:57

through matters

1:36:58

other than can you get me to not pull

1:37:00

the trigger

1:37:01

everything else is irrelevant and so

1:37:04

engineering

1:37:06

machines and and and when your

1:37:08

circumstances change

1:37:10

when you're skiing down the ski slope

1:37:12

and there's an avalanche

1:37:13

all your skill as a skier rendered

1:37:16

irrelevant

1:37:17

all your skills are human being europe

1:37:18

it's back to this issue of the guy that

1:37:20

was the chairman of hna he was the

1:37:22

richest man in china worth 30 billion

1:37:25

dollars

1:37:26

two years ago he went hiking

1:37:29

in the south of france stood on a rock

1:37:32

had a selfie taken tripped and fell

1:37:36

to his death all of his money

1:37:39

all of his models all of his lawyers

1:37:42

87 million freaking people in china

1:37:45

irrelevant

1:37:46

in one second he broke the law of

1:37:49

gravity and he died

1:37:51

the point here is bitcoin has moved into

1:37:55

a different

1:37:56

zone a phase shift it was in one phase

1:38:00

from 2010 to 2015

1:38:04

and went through another phase 2015 to

1:38:10

when bitcoin pulled ahead after the fork

1:38:13

and moved into a different phase you

1:38:16

know and then in 2020 it moved into a

1:38:19

different

1:38:19

phase and at the point the publicly

1:38:22

traded companies started buying it and

1:38:25

institutions started buying it

1:38:27

and mainstream media started coping with

1:38:30

when the senator got elected you know

1:38:33

the mayor of miami beat

1:38:34

cynthia senator cynthia lummus when

1:38:37

these things happen when gary gensler

1:38:40

takes takes his role at the sec

1:38:43

you're in a different phase and so

1:38:46

you have to recalibrate all your models

1:38:50

based upon a whole new set of

1:38:51

assumptions

1:38:53

and it's like i took the spear out of

1:38:55

your hand i gave you a bow and arrow

1:38:58

the human race change i take your bow

1:39:00

and arrow your hand i gave you a

1:39:01

gun i take the gun out of your hand and

1:39:04

i give you

1:39:05

a bomb as i change the engineering

1:39:09

the outlook changes and you cannot draw

1:39:12

on your history anymore you have to

1:39:15

think differently

1:39:18

well i mean i i obviously agree with a

1:39:20

lot of that but let me push back a

1:39:21

little bit in the sense that

1:39:22

you know bitcoin has not changed it's

1:39:25

been doing one lock every 10 minutes for

1:39:27

the past 12 years throughout all of

1:39:28

these phases

1:39:30

and bitcoin's volatility and market

1:39:32

dynamics have not changed much

1:39:34

we've gotten these big bull runs after

1:39:37

the havings every single time

1:39:39

so far it's extraordinary what has

1:39:42

happened in bitcoin

1:39:43

over the last year but it isn't

1:39:45

extraordinary by the standards of

1:39:47

bitcoin it's happened before

1:39:48

so the question is will this time be

1:39:50

different do you think

1:39:52

have we moved into something

1:39:53

fundamentally different after 2020 or we

1:39:55

still

1:39:55

will we still see a market cycle similar

1:39:58

to what we had before

1:39:59

but by the way bitcoin hasn't changed

1:40:02

all of the ecosystem

1:40:05

around bitcoin has changed radically

1:40:08

for example bitcoin is not just the

1:40:11

underlying blockchain bitcoin is the

1:40:13

banks that are plugged into bitcoin so

1:40:15

fidelity is a bitcoin bank coinbase is a

1:40:18

bitcoin bank

1:40:19

binance didn't exist four years ago it's

1:40:21

a bitcoin bank

1:40:23

the cme is a bitcoin bank paypal and

1:40:25

square are bitcoin banks

1:40:27

microstrategy and grayscale are bitcoin

1:40:30

banks

1:40:31

those are radically different things

1:40:34

probably paypal and square will between

1:40:36

the two of them

1:40:38

they will sell bitcoin to what do you

1:40:41

think 20 30 million people this year

1:40:43

the holders of bitcoin have changed the

1:40:46

investment community have changed the

1:40:47

narrative has changed

1:40:50

the use case has changed the way the

1:40:52

people buy it has

1:40:53

changed and the technology to buy it for

1:40:56

example

1:40:57

i buy 200 million dollars of it i do

1:41:00

with 88 000 transactions every three

1:41:02

seconds buying bitcoin two thousand

1:41:03

dollars a second

1:41:05

and by i buy it to hold it forever

1:41:07

that's

1:41:08

change look at all the bitcoin the

1:41:10

greyscale bought

1:41:11

it's locked up in a trust do you know

1:41:13

how that will be sold

1:41:16

not sure no tell me how this is a good

1:41:19

question for anybody on the call how do

1:41:20

you think that's ever going to be sold

1:41:22

yeah i can't see it getting sold i see

1:41:25

them just accumulating

1:41:27

it's actually more extreme than that it

1:41:28

is impossible to sell it

1:41:30

safely there is no mechanism to sell it

1:41:34

the construction of the trust is such

1:41:36

that when the money flows into the trust

1:41:38

they buy bitcoin

1:41:41

there are gbtc shares that are issued

1:41:44

those shares can be sold and the price

1:41:47

of the shares the derivatives can go

1:41:50

the underlying bitcoin can never be sold

1:41:53

per the charter ever ever

1:41:57

so you see there are fundamental

1:41:58

different things that are going on they

1:42:00

last i checked they had 30 billion

1:42:02

dollars of bitcoin

1:42:04

that's 30 billion dollars of bitcoin

1:42:06

that can't

1:42:07

be sold okay

1:42:10

held by institutions a very very

1:42:12

different world so these are sources of

1:42:14

inertia

1:42:16

falling into bitcoin and by the

1:42:17

volatility is not the same

1:42:19

like if you look at the drawdowns

1:42:21

they're not the same like when

1:42:22

when bitcoin ran up to 40 000 it traded

1:42:25

back down to 30 000

1:42:27

that was the 25

1:42:30

retracement not an 80 retracement

1:42:34

so you think the days of 80 retracements

1:42:36

are over

1:42:37

yes i do let me say a different way

1:42:41

if you're a boy scout and you're

1:42:43

shivering in the freezing cold and

1:42:45

you're attempting to start a fire for

1:42:46

the first time

1:42:47

you recall how difficult it is to start

1:42:49

a fire and then you recall going to

1:42:51

sleep without a fire and then maybe your

1:42:53

friend froze to death and you're

1:42:54

mortified by it

1:42:56

but then one day you grow up and you

1:42:58

have a furnace in your house

1:43:00

or maybe you plug into someone else's

1:43:02

electrical system and you have

1:43:03

electrical heater

1:43:04

you're not a boy scout anymore right

1:43:06

it's a totally different world

1:43:08

and the system the network is much more

1:43:11

mature

1:43:12

it's just much better engineered there's

1:43:15

much more monetary energy

1:43:17

in it there's much more inertia

1:43:20

i mean ultimately there's massive

1:43:23

amounts of monetary inertia

1:43:25

in this system like an air compressor

1:43:27

we're compressing energy in a monetary

1:43:30

battery

1:43:31

and it's accelerating if you look at the

1:43:33

rate at which energy is flowing

1:43:35

into it and as that energy flows

1:43:40

it's stabilizing so the more monetary

1:43:43

energy flowing in the system the more

1:43:45

stable it is the more inertia it is the

1:43:47

more difficult it is to change the

1:43:49

direction

1:43:50

and the less volatility it has and i

1:43:52

think that you're going to continue to

1:43:53

see that

1:43:54

as the as these banks evolve

1:43:58

it's very clear to me ever since march i

1:44:01

you can literally see the volatility

1:44:05

and the instability in the entire

1:44:08

network

1:44:08

uh being damped by rational actors

1:44:13

let me give you my counter case i think

1:44:15

ultimately uh as

1:44:16

the more money comes into bitcoin the

1:44:18

more the price goes up

1:44:20

the problem there is that you start

1:44:22

getting more and more bitcoin minted so

1:44:24

effectively bitcoin becomes more

1:44:25

inflationary as the price rises and i

1:44:27

think

1:44:28

it this might be why the having dynamic

1:44:31

always will have a

1:44:32

big rise but also a crash because over

1:44:35

the past four years in the previous

1:44:36

halving period we had four years in

1:44:38

which we were making on average

1:44:39

seven thousand dollars worth of bitcoin

1:44:41

a day uh sorry

1:44:43

uh one thousand eight hundred uh

1:44:45

bitcoins worth on average seven or eight

1:44:47

nine thousand

1:44:48

dollars so you had about 14 million

1:44:49

dollars a day of new bitcoins being

1:44:52

produced

1:44:52

so for the price to hold around that

1:44:55

level we had to have around 14 million

1:44:57

dollars of new demand a day

1:44:59

now there's only so much more the demand

1:45:01

can increase there

1:45:02

will come a point in which the you know

1:45:04

the demand goes up

1:45:06

and so the price goes up and then the

1:45:09

price of the new coins that are being

1:45:10

mined is also going up massively

1:45:12

and so then the new supply becomes

1:45:15

bigger than

1:45:16

the demand the demand can't keep up with

1:45:17

the supply and we witness an inflection

1:45:20

because there's also a lot of leverage

1:45:21

a lot of people that are leveraged in so

1:45:23

they get wiped out and then the dynamic

1:45:25

the the technicals of the chart turn and

1:45:28

then we could have another big drawdown

1:45:29

what do you think

1:45:30

i'm not really a big believer in

1:45:33

the havings as being a driver going

1:45:36

forward

1:45:37

again i i think that all of these models

1:45:39

are mental models that were formed in

1:45:42

the early years and i think that you

1:45:44

should throw them all out

1:45:45

and you should start to reason from

1:45:47

first principles and build a new model

1:45:50

for example i'm staring at the screen of

1:45:52

binance right now

1:45:53

the 24 hour volume of btc is 93

1:45:56

000 coins on binance

1:46:00

if you double it that means there's

1:46:02

probably 180 000

1:46:04

coins traded today 900 bitcoin is

1:46:07

irrelevant

1:46:09

the amount of bitcoin being created is

1:46:11

so de minimis

1:46:12

compared to the volume of the trading

1:46:15

it's irrelevant

1:46:16

and also i think it's here it's

1:46:18

irrelevant to any rational investor

1:46:21

it's just irrelevant to me for example

1:46:24

there's 21 million fully diluted

1:46:25

bitcoins

1:46:26

done end of story like i don't care at

1:46:29

what rate they get printed because

1:46:32

again what's the ratio of 93 000 to 90

1:46:36

a 900 the amount of bitcoin getting

1:46:40

mined is

1:46:41

50 basis points it's half of a percent

1:46:44

like when we're doing a trade we pay

1:46:47

half a percent as the uh

1:46:49

fee like people with serious amounts of

1:46:52

money

1:46:53

they're going to blow through this they

1:46:54

don't care what matters a lot more

1:46:58

than all of these concerns about you

1:47:02

the having is if paul tudor jones wakes

1:47:05

up and decides to double his allocation

1:47:07

from one percent to two percent

1:47:09

or from two to four that matters more

1:47:12

all of these other things because

1:47:14

because the demand

1:47:16

is excessive so the i think a better way

1:47:20

to look at it

1:47:21

is it's emerging as an asset class like

1:47:23

the s

1:47:24

p 500 index and when it gets to be

1:47:28

10 trillion dollars or 5 trillion or 3

1:47:31

trillion it's like the index

1:47:33

there's so much money coming in and

1:47:34

going out of it that it's stabilizing

1:47:37

the index

1:47:38

and it takes it takes a if you've got a

1:47:41

10 trillion dollar asset class like gold

1:47:44

it would take a trillion dollars why do

1:47:47

you think i didn't buy gold

1:47:49

is because i said well it's going to

1:47:51

take 20 trillion dollars to drive gold

1:47:53

up by a factor of 10.

1:47:55

how much does it really take right i

1:47:57

mean if you have a trillion dollar

1:47:59

asset class then a trillion dollars will

1:48:01

probably drive it up by a factor of 10.

1:48:04

like if you double the demand maybe more

1:48:07

but if you've got a 10 trillion dollar

1:48:09

asset class 10 a trillion dollars drives

1:48:11

it up by a factor of

1:48:13

two maybe or or 50

1:48:16

so as as it gets more monetary energy

1:48:19

the inertial component

1:48:21

gets greater the liquidity gets greater

1:48:24

i really think for institutional

1:48:25

investors

1:48:27

the having it just doesn't matter

1:48:28

anymore the dynamic that matters is

1:48:31

another example if dan shulman wakes up

1:48:34

tomorrow and says

1:48:35

i think i should put bitcoin on paypal's

1:48:37

balance sheet

1:48:38

dan shulman has a 300 billion dollar

1:48:41

company he could put 10 billion dollars

1:48:42

of bitcoin on the balance sheet

1:48:44

when coinbase comes public they might be

1:48:46

worth 100 billion dollars

1:48:48

if the ceo of coinbase decides to put

1:48:50

bitcoin on their balance sheet he put a

1:48:51

billion on the balance sheet

1:48:53

2 billion 3 billion the decisions of

1:48:57

individuals ray dalio is giving a speech

1:49:00

a consensus

1:49:01

radar's got 150 billion dollars of

1:49:04

assets under management

1:49:05

if he decides that bitcoin is 25 as good

1:49:08

as gold

1:49:09

won't they buy like 10 billion dollars

1:49:11

of it ray dalio brian armstrong

1:49:14

dan shulman right individuals

1:49:17

there's probably ten thousand people in

1:49:20

the world

1:49:21

that have the ability to put a billion

1:49:23

dollars on that network

1:49:25

ten thousand and the and and there's 1

1:49:27

000 or 2 000 have to

1:49:29

put 10 billion on the network again

1:49:31

every model that you have

1:49:33

and all the history that we have is all

1:49:36

irrelevant if any of them act

1:49:39

the actors the actions that get taken

1:49:41

place

1:49:42

obsolesce and they overwhelm

1:49:46

any statistical models because the

1:49:48

statistical models are based upon

1:49:51

like if you told me for example

1:49:55

in 2018 you have a bunch of bitcoin

1:49:58

and crypto traders that are trading with

1:50:00

leverage that have no banks that can't

1:50:02

borrow money against their bitcoin okay

1:50:05

those people have a very short time

1:50:07

preference safety and you're the time

1:50:09

guy right

1:50:10

the people that have the shortest time

1:50:11

preference i've found are

1:50:14

are um crypto traders i mean they're

1:50:17

thinking about whether or not it's

1:50:18

trading down in the next

1:50:20

eight hours right so when i ask people

1:50:24

why don't you put 100

1:50:25

of your assets into bitcoin they say

1:50:27

well i need money to live on well why

1:50:28

don't you just borrow money

1:50:30

who's going to loan me money block fi

1:50:33

oh block fight they charge 12 8 10

1:50:37

right so there's a very embryonic

1:50:40

industry right now

1:50:41

the consumer banking industry that's

1:50:43

banking bitcoin

1:50:45

by the way name five companies that'll

1:50:47

give you a hundred million dollar loan

1:50:48

against bitcoin

1:50:49

name five can you no

1:50:53

no it's embryonic i can name five that

1:50:57

will give me a hundred million dollar

1:50:58

loan against apple stock

1:51:00

citigroup jp morgan bank of america

1:51:03

wells fargo morgan stanley

1:51:06

everybody okay and here's my point

1:51:08

bitcoin doesn't need to change

1:51:10

what's changing is the banks the banks

1:51:12

are changing

1:51:14

nida will give you a loan genesis will

1:51:16

give you a loan

1:51:18

when coinbase will give you a loan

1:51:20

finance is rolling out some credit

1:51:22

products

1:51:23

paypal won't give you a loan yet but

1:51:25

what happens when paypal gives 340

1:51:27

million people

1:51:28

alone at four percent interest against

1:51:30

bitcoin

1:51:31

what happens to bitcoin well time

1:51:34

horizon stretch out now i can own it for

1:51:37

30 years oh you mean i don't have to

1:51:38

sell my bitcoin to buy my lamborghini

1:51:41

if you actually believe bitcoins going

1:51:42

up by a factor of two every two years

1:51:45

you're an

1:51:45

idiot to sell your bitcoin to buy your

1:51:47

lamborghini the lamborghini is going to

1:51:49

cost you a hundred million dollars

1:51:51

why don't you borrow the money to buy

1:51:52

the lamborghini and keep the bitcoin

1:51:55

well i'm afraid i'm afraid of what i'm

1:51:58

afraid it's going to crash down by 80

1:52:00

percent

1:52:00

why well because it did once before okay

1:52:04

so you see the circular reasoning which

1:52:06

is i lived in a world of crypto traders

1:52:09

on leverage with no banking with no

1:52:11

institutional support

1:52:12

and so i act it's just like your time

1:52:15

preference

1:52:16

i'm afraid to plan for the future

1:52:18

because i don't trust the money

1:52:20

okay a lot of people in their head they

1:52:22

think bitcoin is volatile i don't trust

1:52:24

it i won't be

1:52:24

or i won't be able to borrow against it

1:52:26

and that becomes a self-fulfilling

1:52:28

prophecy

1:52:29

and by there's only a certain amount of

1:52:31

rate at which you can change people's

1:52:33

perceptions right

1:52:35

it takes three four five six years

1:52:38

as the hodlers discover that they can

1:52:40

borrow money against bitcoin

1:52:42

and as the institutions come in by what

1:52:45

what's warren buffett's favorite famous

1:52:47

quote

1:52:48

we find a company we like our preferred

1:52:50

holding period is forever

1:52:52

is warren buffett still owning coca-cola

1:52:54

stock

1:52:56

yes did he sell it to buy a lamborghini

1:53:00

did he need to no why because he could

1:53:02

have barred against it

1:53:04

yeah what's the impact on coke stock

1:53:07

it's not so volatile

1:53:09

right because he's a hodler so this is

1:53:12

not a

1:53:13

it's not uncommon idea how long are

1:53:15

institutions that hold gold how long

1:53:17

have they been holding gold

1:53:19

like forever like what happens if you

1:53:22

replace gold with digital gold you hold

1:53:24

it for 50 years

1:53:26

by i don't think you're gonna be able to

1:53:27

buy bitcoin bitcoin below twenty

1:53:29

thousand gone forever

1:53:31

bitcoin below thirty thousand probably

1:53:32

gone forever bitcoin below forty

1:53:34

thousand

1:53:35

probably gone forever bitcoin in the in

1:53:38

the forty to fifty 000 range

1:53:40

who do you think selling this stuff the

1:53:42

weak hands

1:53:44

the with high leverage are selling it

1:53:46

who do you think is buying it

1:53:48

institutions that have more money than

1:53:52

that have a thousand times as much money

1:53:54

as they're buying with this stuff

1:53:55

and which ones the first one percent

1:53:57

just the early vanguard

1:53:59

so as this happens the institutions

1:54:03

take ownership their time horizon is a

1:54:05

decade

1:54:07

the banks come online that means we

1:54:10

never need to

1:54:11

sell it ever i mean all these guys on

1:54:13

crypto twitter go well what are you

1:54:14

gonna do if you ever need money the

1:54:15

answer is i'm never gonna need money

1:54:17

like right i'm

1:54:20

i'm institutions never need money

1:54:24

right if i ever wanted a little bit of

1:54:25

cash i could just borrow a little bit

1:54:28

but the truth of the matter is

1:54:29

the people buying this stuff are

1:54:31

endowments harvard endowment yale

1:54:33

endowment right i mean

1:54:35

so it's a different set of holders it's

1:54:37

a different banking relationship

1:54:40

it's going to be more diffuse as it's

1:54:42

more diffused the volatility

1:54:45

falls there's you're going to have the

1:54:47

stories of ruffin

1:54:48

safety ruffin bought 750 million dollars

1:54:52

of bitcoin

1:54:53

below 20 000 when it traded to 40 000.

1:54:56

they took half off the table so they

1:54:58

took a 750 million dollar profit

1:55:00

that's why it didn't trade up beyond 40

1:55:03

000. so then it traded down to 31 000

1:55:06

they might have bought back in safe you

1:55:09

know like those guys

1:55:10

the big institutions you know they're

1:55:12

going to be damping it on the upside

1:55:14

on the downside and collaring it and uh

1:55:18

this will continue for a while so it's a

1:55:21

different

1:55:21

dynamic because of the players and the

1:55:24

capital

1:55:25

and the banks and uh and

1:55:28

the security and it's going to continue

1:55:30

to evolve

1:55:31

and the risk profiles and perceptions

1:55:33

will evolve

1:55:35

yeah and i think also the i think the

1:55:36

the the um the best argument

1:55:38

uh against this is just yeah maybe the

1:55:41

mining just becomes completely

1:55:42

inconsequential compared to the daily

1:55:44

volume and then

1:55:45

in that case it doesn't even matter if

1:55:47

it's uh

1:55:48

look i would say it's already

1:55:49

inconsequential

1:55:51

yeah like i think it's already

1:55:53

inconsequential i think that

1:55:55

i think the only people clinging to that

1:55:57

are people that like to talk about

1:55:58

minors i mean

1:56:00

i don't think the miners can move the

1:56:01

market one way or the other let me make

1:56:03

one more point

1:56:04

as the miners come public they have

1:56:07

publicly traded stocks

1:56:10

it's irrational for them to ever sell

1:56:11

bitcoin what marathon just did they

1:56:13

bought bitcoin

1:56:15

if you can raise equity or raise debt in

1:56:18

the public market the miners might stop

1:56:20

selling it because isn't it the

1:56:21

stupidest thing you could pos

1:56:23

who goes in the mining business thinking

1:56:25

bitcoin is going down in price right

1:56:28

nobody so why would you sell something

1:56:31

going up in price by a hundred or two

1:56:33

hundred percent a year

1:56:35

you wouldn't what happens safedean if

1:56:38

all the miners come public

1:56:40

and they stop selling

1:56:44

yeah i mean it's like new extra demand

1:56:46

it's it's it's uh supercharged demand

1:56:48

because it buys at the source and let me

1:56:49

reverse it a different way

1:56:51

what happens if the miners stop selling

1:56:53

and start buying

1:56:55

marathon raised 200 million dollars in

1:56:56

equity and bought 150 million in bitcoin

1:57:00

okay it's

1:57:03

so my point here really is there's other

1:57:05

dynamics

1:57:07

it's possible that you could have 10

1:57:09

miners come public they all raise

1:57:11

25 billion dollars they just all buy and

1:57:14

then they mine bitcoin and keep

1:57:15

and now what happens if i reverse the

1:57:17

polarity in the entire situation the

1:57:19

having doesn't matter

1:57:20

right there's other things that matter

1:57:22

right at the end of the day

1:57:24

what's nine a thousand bitcoin at forty

1:57:26

thousand dollars what's that net you 40

1:57:29

million a

1:57:29

a day or something 40 million dollars of

1:57:32

capital a day

1:57:34

is irrelevant compared to 100

1:57:38

purchasing a day it wouldn't be

1:57:40

irrelevant at 400 000

1:57:42

bitcoin at 400 000 bitcoin that's 400

1:57:44

million dollars of new business it'll

1:57:46

still be irrelevant

1:57:47

because the the trading of the rest of

1:57:49

the marketplace is going to be 100x more

1:57:51

than that

1:57:52

well it currently i think daniel just

1:57:55

posted a screenshot

1:57:57

saying that current daily trading volume

1:57:59

is about 15 billion so currently

1:58:01

it's at 3 so price goes up 10

1:58:05

then mining is 30 percent of the market

1:58:07

and if the market stays constantly at

1:58:09

around 15 billion

1:58:10

uh so three percent now but if the price

1:58:14

goes up tenfold if it's at 480

1:58:16

000 then you know you you're doing about

1:58:20

half a billion dollars of new bitcoin

1:58:21

being minted every day

1:58:23

which is a lot of money actually it's

1:58:24

not three percent safe it's 30 basis

1:58:27

points

1:58:29

like that's that's what i get 900 coins

1:58:32

isn't it 900 a day times 48 000.

1:58:37

you guys can check it that gives me 43

1:58:39

million dollars a day

1:58:41

yeah 43 divided by 15 billion that's i

1:58:48

see you see it's like it's not even a

1:58:48

percent it's like a fraction of a

1:58:50

percent

1:58:50

it's like point it's 25 basis points

1:58:53

right now

1:58:53

and my point again is it's 25 basis

1:58:57

points

1:58:59

what's the most profitable investment

1:59:01

you can hold on your treasury

1:59:03

bitcoin right yes

1:59:08

tell me a miner that that doesn't

1:59:09

believe in bitcoin

1:59:11

the stupidest thing you can do is sell

1:59:14

your bitcoin

1:59:15

don't sell your bitcoin okay so

1:59:19

what's gonna happen i actually think

1:59:21

you're gonna see the polarity flip

1:59:23

on this i think that as miners come

1:59:25

public like riot and

1:59:27

and marathon i think they're gonna think

1:59:29

about it and they're going to realize

1:59:31

they should just keep mining but stop

1:59:33

selling

1:59:35

have you looked at marathon stock it hit

1:59:38

today it more than doubled since they

1:59:40

bought bitcoin on their balance sheet

1:59:43

in two weeks you know what the market's

1:59:45

telling you

1:59:46

the market's telling you that pretty

1:59:48

much they will finance you

1:59:51

with a premium to hold the bitcoin

1:59:53

because they like the bitcoin

1:59:55

so what that means is that in theory a

1:59:58

publicly traded

1:59:59

mining company can raise unlimited

2:00:02

equity

2:00:02

or debt and never sell

2:00:06

so so it's not that big a deal now but

2:00:09

the point really is

2:00:11

there are other dynamics here and they

2:00:13

could flip the polarity

2:00:14

what happens if 10 billion dollars comes

2:00:16

from the public markets into the bitcoin

2:00:18

market

2:00:19

because these miners i think marathon's

2:00:22

got a 3 billion market cap

2:00:24

riot's got a 3 billion market cap what

2:00:27

happens if they double

2:00:28

and they issue debt or issue equity and

2:00:31

my voice

2:00:32

all your models are destroyed humility

2:00:35

is there's a lot of people that can that

2:00:38

can tip

2:00:38

the apple cart here so if you construct

2:00:42

this model based upon the past

2:00:45

you're dismissing the actions of

2:00:47

rational actors

2:00:49

it's rational for a minor to buy bitcoin

2:00:52

sell bitcoin it's rational for a miner

2:00:55

to go public

2:00:56

it's rational for square or paypal to

2:00:59

buy more bitcoin

2:01:00

they might not by the way it's

2:01:03

irrational not to

2:01:05

they might not because of volatility how

2:01:08

do you how do you convince your

2:01:09

customers they should buy bitcoin with

2:01:11

your app when you're afraid to buy it

2:01:12

on your balance sheet right isn't there

2:01:14

a little bit of a a marketing hazard

2:01:16

there

2:01:18

so there's rational actors with

2:01:21

capital they can move this bitcoin

2:01:24

and they can change the volatility and

2:01:27

they can drive it very very hard

2:01:30

and the only thing that keeps them from

2:01:32

doing it is getting up in the morning

2:01:34

and deciding they'll take a risk

2:01:36

if you basically bet that nobody will

2:01:38

act rationally and nobody will take a

2:01:41

then you can run your historical models

2:01:44

but if i can break your model if i break

2:01:47

your model of action right

2:01:50

yeah then you probably ought to have a

2:01:51

more open-ended view of the world a

2:01:54

different model

2:01:55

i look at and i say everybody on earth

2:01:57

with money should buy this stuff and all

2:01:59

7.8 billion people need it

2:02:01

and it's only distributed to 0.1 percent

2:02:04

of the market what's wrong with this

2:02:05

picture

2:02:11

at some point someone is going to decide

2:02:11

to do the rational thing and by the way

2:02:13

arguably they're doing it now right if

2:02:15

the price is going up 300

2:02:16

a year that seems to me to be rational

2:02:20

risk takers acting about as fast as they

2:02:22

can reasonably act right

2:02:24

without you know going through the sound

2:02:27

barrier

2:02:28

you go through a sound barrier there's a

2:02:29

shock wave and

2:02:31

you rip the wings off the airplane we're

2:02:33

kind of pushing up against the sound

2:02:35

barrier

2:02:36

the rate at which what's the fastest an

2:02:39

asset class can

2:02:41

can take on monetary energy without

2:02:43

burning itself up

2:02:45

this might be close to the fastest

2:02:47

because it's accelerating isn't it i

2:02:49

mean weren't we growing like

2:02:50

i haven't seen the numbers someone

2:02:52

should calculate the annualized

2:02:54

yield but i thought it was 230 percent

2:02:57

irr or something

2:02:58

for the last five to ten years the

2:03:00

average growth rate per year was about

2:03:02

200 for the first 10 years

2:03:04

and it's accelerated this year well yeah

2:03:06

but i mean

2:03:07

it it always goes through those um

2:03:09

cycles so far with

2:03:11

fast and then slow and with variability

2:03:14

so we are we were due for a very fast

2:03:16

year this year

2:03:17

anyway now look i mean as an austrian

2:03:19

economist i'm

2:03:20

always exactly on the same page with you

2:03:22

on the fact that it is the actions of

2:03:24

humans that determines economic outcomes

2:03:26

and not

2:03:27

statistical models and constructs but

2:03:29

this year we've been fascinated a little

2:03:31

bit with the stock to flow model and

2:03:32

it's um

2:03:33

it drives me to think that there might

2:03:34

be something mechanical about the way

2:03:36

the difficulty adjustment and mining

2:03:38

determine how people

2:03:40

determine how the price moves just

2:03:41

because there's a limit on how much the

2:03:43

price can go up

2:03:44

over time i think i i don't think the

2:03:47

stock to flow model really can explain

2:03:49

what's going on here

2:03:50

because as i said i immediately

2:03:53

assumed it was 21 million diluted

2:03:55

bitcoin and that's what i made my

2:03:57

decision based on

2:03:58

and i assumed that stock to flow is

2:04:00

infinite and i think that a stock to

2:04:03

flow doesn't take into account

2:04:05

the actions of the fiat central banks to

2:04:07

inflate the currency and clearly if

2:04:09

there was zero inflation versus

2:04:12

400 percent inflation that's a factor

2:04:15

you know zimbabwe inflation rates are

2:04:17

different than the u.s and the us is

2:04:18

radically different than a year ago

2:04:20

so i think you've got to take into

2:04:21

account in monetary policy and i think

2:04:23

you've got to take into account

2:04:24

technology

2:04:26

stock to flow doesn't take into account

2:04:27

what happens if tim cook decides to

2:04:29

build bitcoin into the apple

2:04:30

watch and the apple phone those actions

2:04:33

and technology

2:04:34

they have an impact in doing it sooner

2:04:36

rather than later

2:04:38

we'll do it and i know for a fact there

2:04:40

are 10 people in the world

2:04:42

all they would have to do is put out a

2:04:43

press release and they would move the

2:04:45

price of

2:04:46

bitcoin and so the technology adoption

2:04:49

and the monetary policy all those things

2:04:52

they have a massive impact on what

2:04:54

happens yet and they're not really part

2:04:56

of the stock to flow

2:04:58

no they aren't but i mean the the and

2:05:00

and rationally this is why you would

2:05:01

expect the model to break down

2:05:03

and yet it doesn't and that's really the

2:05:05

mind-blowing thing as far as i'm

2:05:06

concerned and i think

2:05:07

you know um it might sound

2:05:11

uh funny to say it but the model would

2:05:13

have expected a big squeeze

2:05:15

after the having and so you know that's

2:05:18

needed people like you and mass mutual

2:05:20

to show up and you know

2:05:23

carry the banner after we've done the

2:05:26

light lifting we need you guys to

2:05:27

do the heavy lifting taking us to 100k

2:05:30

and i think yeah 2025 is when we expect

2:05:32

people like uh

2:05:34

apple to be building their entire

2:05:36

company around something like bitcoin

2:05:37

it's a little maybe too early for them

2:05:39

to start now but i think

2:05:40

maybe by 2025 they'll be sold and

2:05:43

they'll be convinced then that's what's

2:05:44

going to take us further so

2:05:46

maybe you know the trend undeniably is

2:05:48

not going to go up but what the model

2:05:50

shows is that

2:05:51

that number going up happens and spurts

2:05:53

after the having and then there's a bit

2:05:55

of a calm down and consolidation after

2:05:57

it that it follows this market pattern

2:05:59

it seems to be holding up now and that

2:06:01

that for me

2:06:03

and which is really sacrilegious as an

2:06:05

australian economist to be saying this

2:06:06

but it suggests that

2:06:07

maybe there is something about the way

2:06:09

that the network works that is

2:06:11

forcing this and in fact if you read

2:06:13

mises what mises says is

2:06:15

the reason you can't perform economic

2:06:17

calculation and make scientific

2:06:19

predictions in economics

2:06:20

is that economics does not have a

2:06:22

constant there is no constant

2:06:23

in economics in physics and chemistry

2:06:25

and math and all those things

2:06:27

you go back to well not in math and

2:06:29

physics and chemistry you go back to a

2:06:30

physical constant

2:06:32

that is a you know uh inter

2:06:36

personally determined and easy to

2:06:37

uncertain and all of them

2:06:39

go back to the constants of nature

2:06:41

eventually and so based on that you're

2:06:43

able to make scientific relationship and

2:06:45

devise them and it seems to me that

2:06:48

maybe

2:06:48

bitcoin what the stock to flow model is

2:06:50

showing us the ability to perform

2:06:52

calculation

2:06:53

with the human action for the first time

2:06:55

with this kind of accuracy

2:06:57

maybe 21 million is bitcoin is economics

2:07:00

is first constant

2:07:03

well i agree 21 million is an important

2:07:04

constant kelly's asking

2:07:07

what do you think in terms of second and

2:07:08

third order effects that you look

2:07:10

forward to on

2:07:11

the new post march 20 paradigm

2:07:15

well i think one effect is like the

2:07:17

first 10 years stock to flow

2:07:19

uh and and bitcoin miners selling

2:07:21

bitcoin

2:07:22

bootstrapped the network i think we'll

2:07:25

see an inversion it's possible that all

2:07:27

the bitcoin miners

2:07:28

come public and they stop selling any

2:07:30

bitcoin

2:07:31

and they start and they become banks of

2:07:33

their own they start issuing equity and

2:07:35

debt to finance the network

2:07:37

and you could actually see a reverse

2:07:39

polarity there as bitcoin crashes into

2:07:42

institutions that are publicly

2:07:43

financiable

2:07:44

i think the dynamic changes quite a lot

2:07:47

because

2:07:49

they have different options to access

2:07:51

liquidity so

2:07:52

it's a different network when it's uh

2:07:55

individuals that are unbanked

2:07:57

that are in the cash business than it is

2:07:59

when it's institutions that are very

2:08:01

very well banked and well financed

2:08:04

i think uh you know the the network is

2:08:07

moving toward the point where it's just

2:08:09

all transaction based and

2:08:11

i think uh the transaction block sizes

2:08:14

get larger and transaction fees will go

2:08:16

up and the network will settle into some

2:08:18

equilibrium there

2:08:19

as well okay how do you

2:08:23

come to your conclusion about bitcoin's

2:08:25

total addressable market

2:08:27

i just take all the money in the world

2:08:29

and i figure about

2:08:30

half of it needs to be allocated to

2:08:33

actual collectibles

2:08:34

trophies if you look at the typical

2:08:36

person everybody owns a set of things

2:08:39

their house their car their boat their

2:08:42

trophy assets

2:08:44

you know that they're going to keep and

2:08:46

those will have monetary value imbued in

2:08:48

them those the goods and

2:08:50

and services or goods and products and

2:08:51

whatever and then there's another

2:08:54

chunk which is just the treasury

2:08:55

everybody's got a natural treasury

2:08:57

and that's capital saved up for the

2:08:59

future against uncertainty

2:09:02

i think it's natural that bitcoin will

2:09:04

just continually

2:09:05

absorb that treasury energy from

2:09:07

endowments from corporations from

2:09:09

individuals and

2:09:10

my estimate is it feels like it's about

2:09:14

half of everything should be treasury

2:09:17

and the other half is

2:09:18

tangible property you can estimate it by

2:09:20

counting the volume of gold

2:09:23

and the total amount in sovereign debt

2:09:26

half of sovereign debt maybe you want to

2:09:28

give a loan to your government because

2:09:30

you love the government but

2:09:31

you know my experience is that 90 of the

2:09:33

money invested in sovereign debt wasn't

2:09:35

because we loved the government it was a

2:09:37

store of value

2:09:38

and if you look at the s p i think

2:09:40

people invest in the s p because they

2:09:41

didn't have confidence in their ability

2:09:43

to pick stocks

2:09:44

they wanted to store a value so i think

2:09:46

if you added up all the store

2:09:48

value asset classes you'll probably find

2:09:50

yourself getting to a 200 trillion

2:09:52

dollar number

2:09:53

you know plus or minus against four or

2:09:56

500 trillion

2:09:57

depending on how you calculate it so you

2:09:59

kind of conclude it's like 40 or 50

2:10:02

and it's kind of common sense right half

2:10:04

of your money is

2:10:05

you want to save as a fungible asset and

2:10:07

the other half

2:10:08

you invest in things you love or things

2:10:11

you believe and you take risk on

2:10:12

companies and the like i think that was

2:10:14

pretty obvious back in the day when

2:10:16

savings accounts

2:10:17

existed it's just that savings accounts

2:10:19

have been destroyed

2:10:20

and so now half people are saving in the

2:10:23

stock market

2:10:28

yeah all right i guess the final

2:10:28

question that i wanted to ask you is

2:10:29

when are we going to turn you into a

2:10:30

carnivore

2:10:31

how have you not become a carnivore yet

2:10:33

or are you a carnivore i'm a big paleo

2:10:36

theorist so i'm you know long before

2:10:39

i discovered bitcoin i was a paleo

2:10:42

enthusiast and i

2:10:43

and i think that a lot of stuff that

2:10:44

comes out of

2:10:46

out of uh thinking about how paleolithic

2:10:49

man lived

2:10:50

for three million years i think is

2:10:52

really useful health advice

2:10:54

what did your forebearers eat and how

2:10:56

did they live a hundred thousand years

2:10:59

i think it's helpful it's helpful in

2:11:01

your fitness routines and your

2:11:03

and your eating routines i think that a

2:11:05

hundred thousand or two hundred thousand

2:11:07

years ago people ate

2:11:08

lean proteins and they eat they ate

2:11:12

low sugar content maybe nuts and

2:11:16

they didn't eat sugar-laden fruits and

2:11:17

they probably didn't eat

2:11:19

uh highly engineered modern foods they

2:11:23

certainly don't need any processed food

2:11:25

so my view is i am pretty much a

2:11:28

carnivore i'm

2:11:29

i ate a lot of steak i eat a lot of

2:11:31

chicken uh but

2:11:33

uh and fish but uh i think that

2:11:36

vegetables and nuts are okay

2:11:39

i think the keto diet is a pretty good

2:11:41

diet i i understand the salisbury diet

2:11:43

and i studied that and

2:11:45

i think that in the event that you have

2:11:48

autoimmune diseases or inflammation or

2:11:50

rheumatoid arthritis i've seen

2:11:52

that that's been very effective and so i

2:11:54

can imagine living off of all

2:11:56

meat but i think it's equally reasonable

2:12:00

if you're coming up with a theory of

2:12:02

health

2:12:03

i think if you start with the question

2:12:05

how did human beings live

2:12:07

for three million years before the

2:12:09

modern agricultural

2:12:11

age and you model your lifestyle based

2:12:15

upon that

2:12:15

i think that's consistent with the

2:12:17

healthiest lifestyle and your

2:12:19

conclusions are you're probably not

2:12:20

going to drink orange juice you're not

2:12:22

going to drink

2:12:22

cartons of vodka you're not going to

2:12:24

consume processed foods you're not going

2:12:26

to sit in a chair all day long you're

2:12:28

probably not afraid to be out in the sun

2:12:29

you should probably do vigorous activity

2:12:32

and you should probably eat lean healthy

2:12:35

proteins and

2:12:36

yeah well i'll just tell you the the

2:12:38

case for carnivore is ultimately that

2:12:40

if you try it you'll see that the

2:12:42

difference going from

2:12:44

standard american diet to keto is almost

2:12:47

comparable to the difference of going

2:12:48

from keto to pure carnivore just getting

2:12:51

rid of all plant matter and

2:12:53

you know your body's made out of red

2:12:54

meat and if you just eat red meat your

2:12:56

body has and digestive system will have

2:12:57

an enormously

2:12:59

easy time with it so i started drinking

2:13:01

some cola there

2:13:02

um i think if you ate a lot more beef

2:13:05

you would need fewer snacks and fewer

2:13:08

pick-me-ups and fewer caffeine things so

2:13:10

i we we have to get you to join us on

2:13:13

the carnivore train as well okay

2:13:16

i take it under advisement thank you

2:13:19

thank you thank you so much michael for

2:13:20

joining us this was absolutely

2:13:22

mind-blowing and fascinating and lots to

2:13:25

chew over

2:13:25

and thank you so much for your time i

2:13:27

really truly appreciate it

2:13:29

okay you too thanks everybody for uh

2:13:33

hanging out with us cheers thank you

2:13:35

appreciate it

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