FULL VIDEO: A Mind Blowin' | Ross Stevens & Michael Saylor Discuss #Bitcoin
reizariva · 2021-02-04 · 59m · View on YouTube →
hi
i'd like to welcome ross stevens who's
the founder and ceo of stone ridge
holdings group
which personally met which manages more
than 20 billion dollars in alternative
investments
around 2015 as they started to
personally own a lot of bitcoin
they couldn't find a custodian who could
satisfy their level of fiduciary
standards
that began a journey that is now naidig
the new york digital investment group
which ross founded and is executive
chairman of
today nida manages over 6 billion
dollars of bitcoin
all for institutions and it's a full
service
vertically integrated bitcoin only
financial services firm
ross started his career at goldman sachs
working for fisher black
after earning his phd in statistics and
finance at the university of chicago
writing his dissertation under the
direction of nobel prize winner gene
fama
ross did his undergraduate studies at
wharton and ross is the chairman of the
stevens center for innovation and
finance at wharton
which he founded more importantly
ross is a friend of mine he's been an
important partner
and a trusted guide to me
and to various members of
microstrategy's leadership team
as we navigate our own bitcoin journey
so
please help me welcome ross and ross
thanks for joining us today
i'm really excited about this
conversation i am too michael thank you
very much
it's a pleasure to be here and like each
of the many conversations you and i
have i'm sure i will enjoy and look
forward to this one
okay so let's get right into it in a
sense
let's do it this whole conference is
about reserve assets
it's not about property plant and
equipment or
other parts of a firm's business
strategy or balance sheet
it's about reserve assets you and i are
both ceos
we have a lot we need to focus on we
have a lot we need to decide every
single day
why should we even care about reserve
assets
well i think a ceo has two jobs
right executive but also capital
allocator the first one is is obvious
the second is more important capital
allocation
is a ceo's most important
job i think all of us ceos work in
in capital allocation in fact we
specialize in it
whether we're good at it or not we
specialize in it and said differently
whether or not we choose it
capital allocation chooses us and i
would say a capital allocation
framework for a ceo used to be one thing
which is how do we turn our liquid
assets into
illiquid assets and how do we turn our
illiquid assets back
into liquid assets you know are we going
to buy something
are we going to sell something are we
going to fund a business are we going to
close the business what's changed though
is that it's now
also about our liquid assets
as their own thing your cash reserves
because what used to be safe and not
volatile it's no longer safe and it's
highly volatile
well why is this framework so relevant
now
i mean it's always been relevant i mean
what's relevant is the urgency
uh what's new is the urgency what's new
i think is the outsized role of central
banks
in all of our lives and the role of
central banks on corporate
balance sheets i mean cash is now a
liability
no longer an asset and i think that has
profound
long-term implications for corporations
i mean we can go back
and start a lot of different places but
we can go back i mean one of my favorite
federal reserve sort of central bank
persons
is hayami governor hiyami from japan
he's not a name you hear
a lot about now but he led the boj in
the year 2000
and he joined right out of college
post-war 1947.
it's hard to imagine japan back then but
there were any hyper inflation imagine
japan in a hyperinflation
and those hyperinflationary years when
he was out of college left an indelible
scar
on hiyami understandably and as he was
rising through the ranks of the boj
he was known for repeating the phrase if
you debase the currency you debase
the country in his internal meeting so
that was he was a strident
anti-inflationist now we think about
japan back in 2000 right it's ten years
after the bubble burst
their benchmark rate basically their fed
funds had gone from eight percent to
to zero and given hayami's personal
background his anti-inflationary stance
he thought free money was nuts
right so he decided to do something
about it now that he was finally in
charge
he took the radical step of raising
rates
25 basis points i mean pretty radical so
he made it he made money
slightly non-free okay
but he didn't just do it it's really
what he what he said he kind of had this
speech and he thundered risk
must be priced risk must be priced which
is really academic jargon for saying the
market
must determine the price of money not
bureaucrats
so what happens right very predictably
first of all the prime minister goes
ballistic
he says this is just unacceptable it's
an unparalleled display of independence
of the central bank as if that's not the
entire point of central bank
independence
and what happens in markets the nikkei
gets crushed
drops 20 percent the politicians
predictably in japan
freak out and they demand a return to
zero
and seven months later hayami
retreats he completely capitulates and
moves the rate back to zero and
probably not surprisingly soon
thereafter he's out of a job right so
that
we can think about the journey starting
there let's fast forward 18 years
december 2018 let's talk about our own
country
and what i think is the greatest
reversal of monetary policy
in our country's history and i say that
when i measure it based on the
swiftness of the reversal and the impact
of the reversal so we're december 2018
fed meeting day the markets are down 8
for the month so
nerves are frayed and powell comes out
of the meeting
and he says the balance sheet runoff so
coming out of qe
it's on automatic pilot
and with those two words the market just
loses its mind
it just drops five percent trump says
he's gonna fire him
and things kind of go ballistic at that
point and i don't know if you know this
but
fed policy is that the day after a
meeting nobody in the fed's allowed to
talk publicly but the day after the day
after they are
and at the very first opportunity that
powell has to walk
back his remarks he saves space into it
himself but he trots out
williams who's the fed president of new
york and williams says
plans are not promises we will reassess
the data
the market knows exactly what that means
and it rockets up 15
in the next month so like kayami
complete capitulation
ayami took seven months pal took two
days right
let's do one more let's fast forward to
last march
the ecb christine lagarde is in charge
let's talk about march 12th to be exact
and she is president when spreads on
italian bonds so what they are
essentially over over german bonds
they're blown out and she says her
version of risk must be priced she says
her version of
automatic pilot remember what remember
what she said
she said and i quote we are not here to
close spreads
are you sure christine the markets go
ballistic
um during the press conference spreads
keep widening and widening out
um she actually doubles down she says
it's not the function or the mission of
the ecb to close spread she kind of
thunders that
spreads bloud even more and do you
remember what happened
complete capitulation except it didn't
take regard
the seven months it took ayami or the
two days it took
powell two hours it took her two hours
in the press conference
two hours after the speech she
completely walks back
her comments with the quote i am fully
committed to avoid
any fragmentation all is is okay
it turns out she was there to close
spreads after all and in fact her
capitulation was
so complete that the ecb took the
unprecedented step
of revising the speech with
the conference afterwards they've never
taken the remarks of a press conference
and appended them
to the speech i think what i take away
from these stories is that
a central bank can control the supply of
their money
they can't make their people value it it
seems like hayami
powell and lagarde each felt they had no
choice
what's this tell us about central
bankers
well i mean i don't know i mean the
sequence of hayami
powell lagarde it makes me think of the
great philosopher of modernity
mike tyson oh yeah yeah he was the best
at philosophy um and his most famous
phrase was
everyone has a plan until they get
punched in the face i love that one
i think of it often i think of it often
too and i've been punched plenty of
times
um i mean these bankers they got punched
in the face really hard
and they felt pain and they felt fear
because they're human
you would have and i would have also
they got scared
they retreated i think though what it
really tells us
about the world is that these central
bankers
as well intentioned as smart and as
really good as they are
they're just up against forces far
bigger than themselves
i think it tells us the economic choice
they'd like to make of short-term pain
for a long-term gain it's just out of
scope for them
i think it tells us that their choice is
short-term pain for economic catastrophe
and certain political extinction so
they'll just keep printing i mean
they're just going to keep printing and
that just makes corporate reserves kind
of the point of the conference just
riskier and riskier and more valid what
it really tells us though i think is the
system itself
is the problem the system is so over
levered
so dependent on free money that's just a
little huff
and a little puff and the whole thing
gets blown down
can i tell you just one more one more
story okay okay
so let's let's go back to jerome our guy
right last march
um he's learned the lessons of mike
tyson's wisdom he doesn't want to wait
to get
punched in the face and you know the
markets start to fall
some people start to lose some money and
powell's view
through his actions not his words
through his actions is that
no level of pre-crisis irresponsibility
no level of overborrowing irresponsible
over borrowing
no level must be allowed to have
consequences
the new fed mandate is not price
stability it's not
full employment the new fed mandate
again through his actions
not his words is let's decouple risk
taking
from the consequences of risk taking the
new fed mandate is let's finally once
and for all
institutionalize moral hazard so
to foam the runway for this this new
this new mandate what does he do
jerome goes out and he starts buying
securities at a scale the world has
never
seen or imagined was possible he starts
buying about a day's worth of u.s
gdp a day's work so i'm gonna put that
in
human terms all the work
all 350 million of us do we wake up in
the morning
we get our kids to school we go to work
all of the work of
all of us you know i picture jerome kind
of getting to his desk
gets the keyboard out and just like
control p click
all americans collective daily labor he
he just prints
now as i said i don't question central
bankers are well intentioned i strongly
believe they
are but humans are not supposed to have
that kind of power
over other humans um you know in the
same way that a
stock certificate is is titled to
company
capital money is title to human human
time
michael i mean people sacrifice their
time for money
which enables us to trade our time for
the time
sacrifices of others that's how it's
supposed to work
so a tool that can command human time
the central bank keyboard control p that
keyboard steals time
and it steals time from from some
particularly
and most powerfully the non-asset owners
the most vulnerable and it redistributes
that time
to others most notably the existing
asset owners it adds rocket fuel to
wealth inequality
and it leaves the fidelity of the signal
content of prices just in tatters
now i i think mark march 2020 that was
the wake up call for me that
you're a very sophisticated macro
economist
i was oblivious but that was like the
massive
jolt of of some kind of macro
shock that caused me to stop and decide
that maybe i needed to take an interest
in uh in all of this and what you know
what you've described is pretty sobering
i didn't really know the history
uh like you do but um
you know it's it's clear now the
challenges that central bankers face
and uh it's pretty clear that we are
over
levered as an economy so
um i guess the question is what's
bitcoin got to do
with any of this and what's bitcoin got
to do with corporations
i mean a lot i mean in my view kind of
everything
um i can start with the conclusion i'll
i'll work backwards
um okay i like that give me the answer
yeah i'll give you the answer the answer
is bitcoin is not
volatile that's that's the answer
and let me explain okay
learning bitcoin is like at least to me
it's like
for me it was like learning a foreign
language you know you live in spain for
a year or you live in
france for a year and at some point you
get you get good enough it takes some
time but with immersion you think
in spanish right you think in french
something clicks for you you make that
you make that switch you're no longer
thinking
like how do i say where's the barber in
spanish and doing that english to
spanish translation in your mind you
just think the question
in spanish i now
think in bitcoin okay it's taken me
eight years of morning study you are
much faster
than me you know i'm a slow learner but
i get there it's taken me eight years of
morning study and a lifetime of of
of lessons studying the markets but i
now think in bitcoin and it's it's very
freeing
and through that lens of thinking in
bitcoin bitcoin is not
volatile fiat is volatile the price of
college is volatile in fiat
keeps getting cheaper in bitcoin the
price of prime real estate
very volatile and fiat keeps getting
cheaper
in bitcoin the price of all of my
long-dated
denominated liabilities like a mortgage
or retirement or we do a lot of work
with insurance companies they're
long-dated fiat-based liabilities a
death benefit for life insurance
contracts or annuity payments
those are extraordinarily volatile
in fiat and they each getting keep
getting cheaper
in in bitcoin and so to understand
really what's going on and why this is
happening i think we need to ask
ourselves two things
one like what is money like what is it
and why is bitcoin an excellent money or
even is it an excellent
money so so so so what's money money is
technology
it it it is and it always has been
technology whether it was seashells or
salt or cattle
it's always been technology it's
technology for making
our wealth today available for
consumption
tomorrow and virtually all of us you
know americans
um we just take for granted that there's
a sharp line of distinction
between what's a money and what's not
but that's false
there's not a line of distinction in
fact throughout history various monies
plural have always co-existed
along a continuum of soundness meaning
good money to to kind of bad money and
they've always been subject to
competitive network effects
like any comp competition in fact
english language and language for humans
in general that was the first
network and money was the second um it
also means that
that given enough time
at any given time including right now no
money is
absolutely the best money on all
dimensions there are always trade-offs
some are better some are worse some are
better at this some are better at other
things it also means that all money is
is is temporal
no money has ever been or ever will be
forever including bitcoin bitcoin will
not last
forever it may last 100 years or 250
years i mean maybe forever for practical
terms for everybody at this conference
including you and i
but it will it will not last forever
because money is just a good
like any other good but what makes what
makes
money as a good unique among all goods
is that we value it
not for its own sake but for its
prospective
exchange utility which means we hope the
vessel whatever we
choose to store our money in
we hope that vessel keeps its value long
enough
so we can trade it in the future for
stuff we actually want right nobody
actually wants green little pieces of
paper nobody actually wants bitcoin
nobody actually wants bitcoin either
what we want
those things to do is to hopefully
allow us to trade them for things in the
future we actually want a vacation a
college education
property whatever right so
it's not that we want the money we don't
want the money we want what the money
can do for us in the future what we can
trade it for
so so then why is bitcoin
excellent money well i think that's for
everybody to make up their own mind i'll
tell you how i think about it though
there's really two
primary dimensions that i think money
should be evaluated on
sale ability across time and sellability
across
space so sellability across time just
means will the money keep its
value through time or will it depreciate
um you know the oldest fiat money that's
in existence today
is the british pound and 371 years ago
when
the modern british pound started it was
equal to one
pound of silver one british pound bought
you one
pound of silver today do you know what
one pound of silver buys you in terms of
british pounds
i'm guessing that it buys you more than
one british more than one
a little bit 174. so you used to buy
one for one now a pound of silver buys
174 british pounds
and the key here is to understand what
changed
and what did not change okay the silver
itself
did not change 371 years ago it weighed
a pound
today it weighs a pound 371 years ago
the silver had certain chemical
properties
it's got the same chemical properties
today
the silver did not change the fiat
changed it depreciated more than 99
so silver crushed fiat i hate the 99
number i i just hate that one yeah i
just didn't want to take it out to that
many decimals
but you know it's 99.7638129 i don't
know it's it's it's a lot it's basically
worthless right relative to silver
but you know people talk about gold what
about silver versus
gold and the reality is gold has been
far better and far
more reliable it's much better store
value than silver because it's scarcer
and it's got a much lower supply growth
gold grows at about two percent a year
silver grows about 20 30 a year so
gold is a much better money than
silver but let's compare it to bitcoin i
mean gold still does grow
you print through mining you print gold
at about two percent a year and bitcoins
on an asymptotic journey to zero percent
inflation per year so two percent a year
roughly times 50 years
and gold essentially depreciates
completely
versus bitcoin so bitcoin will be worth
far more than gold in the future once it
clicks for people
that gold is printed at a much higher
rate and that compounds
much higher 100 a year but that
compounds over 10 20 30
40 50 years but there's another property
of gold that makes it weak relative
to bitcoin and in fact this is a
property of bitcoin that makes bitcoin
truly unique
among any money in history which is that
bitcoin is the first store of value
ever in which its supply is entirely
unaffected
by its demand you know if we take
the example of gold to prove this point
if gold went to i don't know
100 000 bucks an ounce it's up 50 x
overnight
you and i know what's gonna happen
tomorrow morning the miner's gonna get
to work very early right now
you and i would drop the phone and start
mining right we're gonna start mining
we're gonna look around our house for
gold we're gonna melt it down
we're gonna drive up the supply we can't
skyrocket the supply but we're going to
drive up the supply we're going to drive
up drive down the price of gold
if during the course of this
conversation people really feel like
bullish on bitcoin and bitcoin goes to a
million i'm saying that with a smile
what's going to happen in supply of
bitcoin nothing
nothing nothing that's incredible
that's incredible bitcoin is the first
store of value in human history
where its supply is never can never will
never be affected by
any amount of its increased demand so
the conclusion is that bitcoin is better
at being gold than gold because it's
more sellable across
time now the other characteristic about
money that's really important is
sellability across space like can you
move the money around the world
efficiently
and this is another place where gold has
a really
acute flaw it's just hard to transport i
mean if you get paper gold except you're
back in sort of fiat land and all the
problems of fiat
gold is just hard to to transport and
this is where fiat for all its flaws and
fiat's doa
but for all its flaws fiat really shines
here you can move it around the world
and it's sort of an internet
world where network power is is
everything
this ability to sell across space is
is critical however i want to
clear up a pretty common misperception
which is that bitcoin is slower than
fiat the reality is the opposite
bitcoin moves much faster across space
than fiat the key though
is to compare apples to apples final
settlement and in final settlement
there's no comparison bitcoin increases
our capacity
for final for example international
settlement by
500 000 transactions a day and completes
the settlement
with finality in about an hour you know
in international settlement you're
talking two three four five days seven
days it can be a month
depends on the two countries you may not
you may not get there
and even within a country like ours
michael don't confuse
the speed of your visa payment with its
final settlement because it's not
finally settling when you go to
starbucks and buy coffee with your visa
card no final settlement occurs what
actually happens
is your bank and starbucks bank
they have some credit risk to each other
for two or three days
usually it's fine but sometimes with
disastrous results
and then there's final settlements
bitcoin
settles every hour and it's a bearer
instrument it's the first ever
electronic
bearer instrument so credit risk is not
a concept
we said earlier that bitcoin is better
at being gold than gold
what we're saying now is bitcoin is
better being fiat
than fia it's more saleable across space
and because it's not
debt like fiat it has no credit risk so
the conclusion is that bitcoin is the
best
money we have maybe it's the best money
we ever we've ever had
and that's why i've learned the language
that's why
i now think in it okay
i get it it's pretty clear when you say
it that way
bitcoins just better money but it's not
only money
and i obviously agree with you however
i have a related question even if we
agree
that bitcoin is better money it comes at
a cost
bitcoin's use of energy how do you think
about that
i mean i think about it a lot um
and i think that you know if people take
nothing away from our conversation i
hope they take
this part away about how i think about
bitcoin's use of energy
um let's start with some facts okay
bitcoin consumes a ton of energy
the the amount of energy that bitcoin
consumes you can think about it as the
sum of all the mining equipment
in the world and there's no you know
there's no central registry for for
mining equipment so you don't
really know exactly but i think an
excellent estimate is about
10 million humans worth of energy so
it's enormous
and in a warming world how can this be
good
well let's set some context like what is
the problem of energy what are we
solving
it's never been its scarcity we can
produce tons and tons of energy
it's always been our ability to channel
the energy geographically that means to
move it
where it's needed most and before
bitcoin that was always where
humans lived we needed to move the
energy to where humans lived
but bitcoin's mining energy it's just
solving a different problem
solving a math problem not a
transportation problem
and because of satellites and wireless
internet connections
a math problem can be solved anywhere
so bitcoin mining can be located
anywhere and you know the long-term
implications of this i think
are are world-changing so so for example
bitcoin can make monetizable
isolated energy sources all over the all
over the world i mean think about
waterfalls or running rivers we can
create dams
in places that are you know now entirely
untapped because they would be cost
prohibitive
to move that energy to the electric grid
near where residential or commercial
uses would be possible just it's just
cost prohibitive
so here's the key insight as bitcoin's
price
rises it's high enough now but as it
continues to rise
bitcoin mining will be the most
profitable use of energy in human
history
that does not need to be located near
human settlement
to operate that's a big deal
bitcoin is going to fundamentally change
the economics of
energy and that's because with bitcoin
mining we've got a highly profitable use
of energy that's
location in dependent we've never had a
highly profitable use of energy
that was location dependent now now we
do
and since fossil fuels they're already
too expensive for bitcoin mining
um i think the only i mean i think
confidently the only long-term
profitable
bitcoin mining will be powered by clean
energy so so imagine a future just just
imagine
where bitcoin mining firms unsubsidized
and i think that's key
are in extraordinarily isolated
locations
i don't know let's visualize a waterfall
powerful waterfall in a
population free part of an african
country that's destitute
people living in abject poverty and we
can easily connect that waterfall
to the bitcoin network we can build the
energy infrastructure
to monetize the local clean energy
source
for bitcoin mining but once we've got
the infrastructure let's extend it let's
build roads let's build houses let's
build schools let's build
let's build let's build human settlement
let's move humans there
and i think the net result will be more
and more of humanity
clustering around cheap and cheap is key
clean clean as ke2 energy sources
historically
our challenge with energy has been to
move the power to
the people bitcoin will allow us to move
the people
to the power now you think about the
world's major population centers i'm in
new york you're in miami think about
tokyo
or paris or london they developed where
they are
geographically because of natural
seaports or trade routes or water rays
waterways the placement of those cities
had nothing to do with energy because
they're all free energy right they were
all pre-fossil fuels
with more and more of the world's
population now able
in the future with bitcoin to congregate
around abundant energy and this is the
key with extraordinarily low marginal
costs of production
that's the part that matters because
cheap energy
in the natural form equals human
flourishing that that's an equation
cheap energy equals
human flourishing and we can we can sign
all the climate accords we want we can
add our name to anything we can we can
virtue signal whatever we want sign them
all
right they're all irrelevant they've
been irrelevant they will be irrelevant
what's relevant is this
because when you have people with a
profit motive
and for the first time ever we have a
huge pull
towards clean energy with a profit
motive that's when things
change so from my perspective beyond the
the revolution and monetary policy that
bitcoin already represents
bitcoin also represents the biggest
catalyst the world has ever known
for the development of abundant clean
cheap
energy and therefore you know one of the
biggest catalysts the world has ever
known
for human flourishing it's going to take
a decade or two
but that's one of the things that
bitcoin can do
you know i never really thought about it
that way before it's really pretty
amazing i mean
manufacturing money from clean
energy sounds like a better idea than
manufacturing aluminum
from clean energy a little bit a little
bit
you got to imagine a lot of countries in
the world that have shut in stranded
energy
and they have and we know you can't move
electricity more than 500 miles so
if you could actually literally make
money off of stranded energy you could
you can tap into your natural resources
in order to move into the 21st century
i think it's fascinating yeah yeah may
take a decade or two to realize the
vision
but you know given the way uh the
economics of mining works
especially as bitcoin's price rises
i think the energy vision makes perfect
sense
it's and it's inevitable okay so
big idea big idea ross okay
going back to bitcoin itself and your
firm
stone ridge what what is what is stone
ridge doing with bitcoin and
let's break it into two questions um
what are you doing
as a steward of your own firm's
resources and
what are you doing to help others see
what you see
well um our own resources you know what
are we doing
i mean i don't know if you can read the
books in the back there's a lot of tele
books we like tele
so i'm going to rephrase your question a
little bit which is
ross don't tell me what you think show
me what's in your portfolio
that's a that's a telephrase um
our reserves are now in bitcoin
now it's been true since 2017 and other
than what we keep you know for
convenience for salaries and
and rent and things you know cash we
need like fiat
our liquid reserves are in bitcoin um so
so how did we get there
you know i think i think great questions
are underestimated
um and i think we got there through a
great question
that our team asked which is what do we
have to believe to be
true to move to the bitcoin standard
what do we have to believe
to be true to move our reserves from
fiat into bitcoin
and our answer was that if we allow
ourselves to focus only on
point-to-point risk meaning
point-to-point in time from today
until our long-dated fiat liabilities
are due and remember we're corporations
so theoretically infinitely lived of
course we're not
actually infinitely lived but yes we
have salaries in rent
next week but we have salaries and rent
in 10 years and 20 years and 30 years
too so we can think about
those liabilities if we just think about
point-to-point
the only thing we really have to believe
is that over the next 10 or 20 years
that the dollar will depreciate
relative to bitcoin and i believe that
i have no idea what the dollar is going
to do tomorrow
next week next month next year but i
have a high degree of confidence and i
voted with my dollars not
certainty but a high degree of
confidence
that the dollar will depreciate versus
bitcoin over the very long term
as it has eighty percent depreciated in
the last
two years as it has thirty percent
appreciated
so far this year so this insight
allows us to ignore us dollar volatility
along the way
focus on point to point focus on end
state economics now
like anything in life a point-to-point
perspective doesn't make it a risk-free
perspective but it is our perspective
and the net result
is has been and i believe will be
enormous
competitive business advantages
certainly relative to other
firms in our sector and financial
services i mean for us everything is
getting cheaper
right so paying rent paying salaries
m a recruiting it's just
it's all cheaper and the stock market's
making new highs every day
for us everything's on sale right so
abstracting from stone ridge though if
you take company a and company b
in the same industry one adopts the
bitcoin standard and what does not
you know just think about the macro
environment as the money printer goes
bur or if it continues to i think it
will as credit creation just continues
to explode
you know as real rates on riskier and
risky assets continue to go negative
when we cross the rubicon when real
rates on corporates went negative
recently
you know consider the implications for
the dollar in one year and two years and
10 years i don't know
lower a lot lower
certainly versus bitcoin that's that's
my versus the end versus europe i i
don't know but certainly
versus bitcoin remember at the very
beginning we talked about
every ceo's most important job capital
allocation the decision of whether and
how
to adopt the bitcoin standard
i believe that will be the single most
important decision every ceo makes
in the next 10 years the most important
decision
whether they realize it today or not and
i acknowledge well under one percent
would acknowledge that's going to be the
most important decision they make in the
next 10 years but it will be
and whether they actively make it or not
they make it they make it
with high consequence okay
so the second part of my question um is
what are you doing to help others see
what you see
well um for a while we were trying and
nothing was actually happening i
i recently learned how bamboo grows it's
pretty
to me it's pretty fascinating it spends
its first five years
building an extensive root system
underground and
basically doing nothing visible and then
it explodes
90 feet in the air in six weeks that's
that's bamboo
it's not a terrible analogy to nydic
stoneridge's bitcoin subsidiary
you know we started in 2017 we put a
great team together we had a bunch of
capital
we worked and worked and worked you know
we laid our root system
um we operated largely well we operated
in stealth
it's true that we operate in stealth but
it's almost as if it didn't matter that
we operated in stealth because
no institutions really cared and it
wasn't for lack of trying we could be
knocked on a lot of doors
we were just too early we were just too
early but you know we kept it our craft
we built our root system we thickened
and strengthened the roots
um and we worked quietly you know out of
out of view which is our style the firm
you know has had a no press policy since
its inception in 2012.
but if you fast forward to today nydig
is a full service
vertically integrated bitcoin only
financial services firm the first
billion during that dark
challenging five years it took 1200 days
to
raise that first billion first billion
is always the hardest first billions
always the hardest
1200 days the last billion took six
six one a year ago we had 25
institutional clients
today we have 280 institutional clients
we've got a pipeline
in the onboarding process of 96 we can
put
75 institutions through the pipe a month
that's our current capacity
we've got over six billion dollars
in bitcoin now between what's in the
door and what's committed from
institutions and we are vanguardizing
this asset class best product best price
and as we scale we're driving prices
down down down our pricing today is
70 lower than it was a year ago
and by the end of the year michael i am
confident we'll have over 25 billion
dollars
of bitcoin i've just got this order book
i'm not guessing i see what's happening
okay 25 billion dollars um
yeah that's astonishing growth and it
matches what
i suspected but i didn't know
is going on with institutions and
bitcoin
given knightig's role in the bitcoin
ecosystem
you have tremendous visibility into what
all sorts of
institutions are doing and how they're
adopting bitcoin
so what can you tell us well i mean
the the one-liner is all kinds of
institutions are adopting
bitcoin public companies private
companies hedge funds private equity
funds
credit funds i mean even investors who
if you asked me a year ago
would they come in i'd say absolutely
not the most conservative but also the
most sophisticated most
careful investors in the world triple a
and double a life insurance companies
double a pnc
insurance companies today have more than
500 million dollars
of bitcoin exposure through knightig and
i know for sure because i'm not guessing
they're just getting started
and these institutions want to do more
than just own bitcoin that's that's
table stakes within a year
america is going to be able to get a
portion of their income annuities
paid in bitcoin americans will be able
to get a portion of their salaries
paid in bitcoin you want that poultry
interest on your cd paid in bitcoin
you'll be able to get that too there's
going to be an explosion
in bitcoin driven financial innovation
another interesting phenomena we're
seeing in our book is
exactly zero clients have walked back
their allocation
and that may not be true for other firms
but that's true for us so once people
get off zero
they either stand pat or they increase
now i don't want to overstate this it's
been a year
but that's what we're seeing so far and
another phenomena we're seeing is among
family offices so a year ago we had
zero family offices today of our six
billion two billion
is from family offices and the average
account size of a high net worth
individual is seven million
dollars so yeah we serve retail but the
average account size is seven million
so the breadth of adoption across
institutions and the
increasing adoption within a given
institution
shocking not surprising yeah it does
seem to be it's a one-way trade that's
the way i see it no question
you're moving in that direction so
you know i don't i don't think of me as
a crystal ball but
what does the future of bitcoin hold and
do you think it's too late
to opt in and i'm interested in i know i
have my opinions but what are your
drivers for the price over the next few
years
well i definitely don't have a crystal
ball but i think at least
from a framing perspective i'll tell you
how i think about it i think about the
first
chapter of bitcoin as kind of the
genesis block
until let's call it now and that's been
all about
bitcoin the asset which is really the
theme of this conference and what's
driving right now
accelerating institutional adoption
is the view of bitcoin being de-risked
right and i think that's why you're just
going to see a wall of money
i i know it i have an order book a wall
of money coming into the asset class so
let me put you
to sort of frame this out in the mind of
an institutional investor me
okay i'll put you in my mind my partners
and i bought more bitcoin
in 2020 last year than in 2013
through 2019 combined okay
and as our fiat businesses continue to
inflate
and accelerate which they are i expect
we'll buy more bitcoin in the next two
years
and in the pre than we did in the
previous eight so so what's going on
we're conservative institutional
professional risk managers it's what we
do for a living and it's why
investors including the most
conservative investors in the world have
entrusted us
with 20 billion dollars in our
alternative businesses our non-bitcoin
businesses
and to us conservative us bitcoin is
de-risked
why well when i look at bitcoin i see it
above 500 million
billion dollars of market cap i see
millions of people using it every day
with a clear line of sight to tens of
and then billions i see 12 years of
uninterrupted
safe operation of the network
when i look at all that the left tail of
the zero
outcome is gone and that
is the key observation so when i talked
to institutional investors a few years
ago
i would get the question you know what's
the chance of bitcoin going to zero
and a few years ago that was an
interesting conversation
last week a client asked me what's the
chances of bitcoin going there so what's
the chance of christianity going to zero
like it's just not like it's just it's
just left
it's left the station and so remember at
stoneridge we are
risk managers we do it professionally
and what you're talking about here with
bitcoin is an extraordinarily asymmetric
upside asset
we can debate whether it's good or bad
but i think we can't debate
the asymmetric upside to it it's perhaps
the most asymmetric potential right tail
asset in
in the world in history and you chop off
the left tail
we all know what happens right to the
mean it just it just
explodes it explodes you chop off the
left tail the mean explodes and you
combine that with the macro environment
the money printing presses running at
full tilt
i mean the blue wave in the u.s complete
political dysfunction
around the world um i mean for us at
least at stoneridge fiat reserves are
like a hot potato in our hand we make
them in this business
we can't get them our hands fast enough
and put them into
into bitcoin we can convert them as
quickly as possible so yeah we're risk
managers at stoneridge but we're also
capital allocators you can't eat risk
management you can
make you can eat making money in the
markets and we believe in the power of
bitcoin
but if we didn't think we'd make money
we wouldn't invest a penny
so you're calling chapter one of bitcoin
2009
through today bitcoin asset
and i guess that really is the process
of going from
zero to one bitcoin didn't exist
now it does what's chapter two well
i think chapter two is going to be
incredibly exciting and chapter two
builds on bitcoin the asset and it adds
bitcoin
the network in chapter two bitcoin the
network
it solely leverages bitcoin's
proprietaryness as an open source
monetary network in chapter one we
reached millions
in chapter two we're gonna reach
billions and we're gonna do it quickly
and chapter two starts right now
so i'll give you a flavor of chapter two
say i wanna send a thousand bucks i'm
sitting in new york right now to a
friend in milan
italy strike jack muller's firm
working with nydig takes my dollars and
delivers them to my milan friend
in euros instantly and for free
what like how did this happen so let's
go slow
first strike takes my dollars from my
bank account
my thousand bucks and they debit it
that's a millisecond second
strike works with nydig and we do a
trade we convert
the thousand dollars into bitcoin
it's another millisecond or two third
strikes work strike works with lightning
labs and it
zips the bitcoin across the atlantic
ocean to milan
we're still in single digit milliseconds
basically instantly
over there there's another fx trade naid
converts that bitcoin
into euros we're still in milliseconds
and finally
strike credits my friend's bank account
with final settlement in euros done
so what what just happened what just
happened is a thousand bucks
were moved from me in new york to my
friend in milan and converted to euros
instantly and for free how
because for the first time in history
we have an electronic bearer asset never
had an electronic bearer asset it's
called bitcoin
and an open source monetary network
which we've never had before
it's also called bitcoin that together
can achieve
cash finality anywhere in the world
anytime 24 7
365 with liquidity in every any currency
pair you care about
and notice something critical in the
transaction i described critical
the volatility of bitcoin the asset was
nowhere to be found right
why because we didn't use it we didn't
use bitcoin
for its properties as an asset we use
brick coin for its properties
as an open source monetary network
now i gave you an example of two friends
moving a thousand bucks from new york to
milan that's
that's cute it's adorable
imagine the entire global import export
industry
with instant and free international
settlement right
imagine the entire global remittance
market with international and free
global
settlement imagine the entire global
credit card industry with no merchant
fees
right i mean use the open source
networks of bitcoin
in the open source networks of lightning
and bitcoin the network will change the
way we all interact
and connect this part chapter two of
bitcoin
this part has nothing to do with
monetary policy this point has nothing
to do with central bankers with dollar
depreciation
zero however there will be this virtuous
beautiful
feedback loop between bitcoin the asset
and bitcoin the network and bitcoin the
asset and bitcoin
network and working together the bitcoin
the assets specialists
at nydig and the bitcoin the network
specialists at strike and lightning
they're going to get this chapter 2
flywheel in motion and it is going to
hum it's going to hum so just stay tuned
for more okay that's awe-inspiring
i'm really excited uh world-changing
bitcoin as the greatest force for good
in
the world kind of stuff
what do you think stops so many people
from seeing it
well i think that it is
awesome it is awe-inspiring and i think
we just
live in such a cynical age with with so
many people
devoid of feelings of all just kind of
beaten it beaten out of us
i mean i'm grateful for many things
about bitcoin i think one of them
is it's just wonderful that i need not
be among
the people who are devoid of feelings of
awe
i think that relates to another question
which is why people
underestimate bitcoin so much and what
do they underestimate most
about bitcoin and that one's easy right
that's easy the ferocity
of the bitcoin community for bitcoin
that i can tell you that is
underestimated i don't speak for the
community i speak for myself
but i think there are two core views of
the community the first few we'll call
it the individualist view
is that money is not the root of all
evil money is a root of all sovereignty
it's the authority to act in the world
as we see fit as long as we don't harm
others money is a property right and
since we've traded our time for money
when money is printed our time is stolen
and that is not okay
the second view i would say is the
community view money is the greatest
force for good in the world today
it's an arc it's designed to help the
most vulnerable the most unprepared
escape the accelerating fiat flood and
it's
it's raining outside pretty hard so
let's get as many of those living on
society's fringes
not just in the us but everywhere let's
get him in the ark let's get him in the
ark as soon as possible and nothing is
more important
what i would say though is that these
two views of the bitcoin community
they're they're not mutually exclusive
in fact every single bitcoiner i know
holds both of them in there in their
minds
you know one of the things that really
got me going
and a lot of bitcoiners going was last
march when kashkari who's president of
the minneapolis
fed he said there's an infinite amount
of cash
in the federal reserve an infinite
amount of cash in the federal reserve
you can almost hear the other 11 fed
presidents saying
neil you're not supposed to say that
part out loud all right
right the american people are really
smart right they may not
have gone to the same schools as neil or
worked at the same firms as neil
but they're smarter than you and one
thing they definitely can do they can do
division
if i got 50 000 of life savings i don't
really know what that 50 000 is
out of but i have a sense right and now
the guy in charge of the money is
telling me the denominator is infinity
i don't need to know calculus or theory
of limits to know that my 50
000 divided by infinity that means my 50
000 bucks
is worthless why would i hold my life
savings in something with infinite
supply
i might as well go to the beach and
exchange it for grains of sand they're
an infinite supply
too so i think what kashkari is really
telling us
is that fiat should come with a warning
label like cigarettes comes with a
warning label but instead of
the cigarette label saying you know
these are bad for your health
the fiat warning label would say these
are bad for your your wealth
right and the cigarette pack has this
you know the skull and crossbones
on the outside i'd like to see the
treasury
start printing the infinity sign on our
cash so if you got a 20
bill under each the numbers in all the
corners it would just you have a red
warning label that says divide this
number by
infinity remember as i said earlier a
central bank can control
the supply of money they can't make
their people
value it so you know i think that
bitcoin is massively under
underestimated i think that's
understandable i mean i think
you underestimated it i underestimated
until we go
deep down our own version of the rabbit
hole it's it's underestimated i mean the
financial establishment
underestimates again i did until i
didn't um
you know i give them all mulligans they
just haven't put the time
into it i mean jamie dimon calls it uh
a fraud right yet it's much more real
than
fiat larry fink calls bitcoin an index
of money laundering
i think it's more akin to an index of
money printing warren buffett calls
bitcoin
rat poison that one's shameful that one
is shameful because bitcoin is giving
life not taking it it's giving life
right now to tens of thousands in el
salvador and pakistan
venezuela it's giving life it's not
taking it and soon to be millions and
with strike and nydig and lightning soon
to be
soon to be billions so fraud money
laundering rat poison
bitcoin it's just intellectual
laziness i think people also
underestimate
just how unstoppable it is it is on
bitcoin is just
unstoppable um i mean it'll have fits
and starts as it has of course that's
for sure
but it is here to stay forever and
that's for simple reason that's that
it's open source
it's open source i mean china last time
i checked pretty powerful place
they basically banned it price rallied
in their face
india basically banned it a lot of
people lived there last time i checked
basically rallied in their face pakistan
banned bitcoin banned mining it all went
underground usage
exploded mining in pakistan after the
ban exploded
it was so profitable to mine in pakistan
that eventually the government
themselves the province started a
bitcoin miner
and they they changed the legality of it
so you know these are the four
three of the four most popular populated
countries in the world
effectively kind of said bitcoin's
banned we're making new highs
kind of even as we speak and i think
about our own country i really don't
think
a ban is in store because i don't think
it's possible but we can just we can
just go there for a second let's just
say
the u.s banned bitcoin it wouldn't stop
it
it would accelerate it remember we kind
of tried this once in 1935
we we did actually ban and confiscate
gold for what i said before you actually
could do that
you can't confiscate bitcoin you could
and in the ensuing period of time till
today
the dollars depreciate about 85 percent
versus gold so it just
didn't work i imagine trying prohibition
right i mean that's alcohol and it would
be unenforceable
can you imagine trying to ban people
from holding their own money you mean
forget it
no way and it won't happen anyway
because it's it's private property and
we've got pretty good rules in our
country
about private property and it might even
be speech
because it's code so it might be
protected by the first amendment
but regardless michael none of this
matters none of this matters
because with regards to confiscation if
you really boil all this down what is it
it's just a password it's the password
to a private key
and that password can easily be stored
with phrase memorization
in my head so confiscations off the
table remember
gold has a vault
you can take the vault good luck
confiscating my memory yeah and given
all of this
it seems like individuals and
corporations are being forced to take
action
yeah look i think everybody now has a
choice which is a which is a good thing
and it's a choice they make
you make i make and everybody gets to
make on their own
you can stay on the fiat standard that's
available in which some people get to
new units of money in unlimited size
just not you or you can move to the
bitcoin
standard in which no one gets to do that
including you we finally got
a monetary system governed by rules
not rulers and given that i've made my
choice
you have to make yours and everybody at
this conference has to make theirs i
will tell you
i am working tirelessly towards the
future
with a globally adopted inflation proof
common currency for the world one that
billions
can opt into as their peaceful
weapon of choice you know satoshi
solved the byzantine generals problem
bitcoin solves the military
generals problem
and when you think about trends in
anything you're a tech guy
all you got to do is follow the brains
even more than the money the brains know
first
where are some of the smartest people in
the world shifting their careers to
focus
where are some of the best developers in
the world going they're going to bitcoin
and i'd never underestimate the power of
a mass movement
of developers and don't underestimate
the ferocity
of the emerging decentralized class us
bitcoiners
i mean just like early encounters with
the printing press and antibiotics and
aqueducts and the internet itself they
were incalculably underestimated
people incalculably underestimate
bitcoin
totally understandably but you michael
microstrategy your colleagues i think
you're doing everybody an incredible
service
by having this conference by having this
talk and creating a platform
for these ideas to be introduced so look
you've just heard from
a guy with a background in financial
services and a background in background
in bitcoin i straddle both worlds
so i offered my perspective but it's
it's only my
perspective colored by my experience
you're a fellow
founder you're a fellow entrepreneur
you're a fellow ceo
you've got your perspective you're a
tech guy you know what do you what do
you think about this and what do you
think i've said and what i've missed
well you know ross i i think there's
clearly a macroeconomic win that's
blowing
and i don't think any corporation can
afford to
ignore it anymore we've all got to act
you've acted
microstrategy's acted the reason we're
having this conference is to help
everybody else figure out what they
should do
and uh i want to thank you for sharing
all this this has just been mind-blowing
it's just awesome i'm uh i'm just so
inspired and
and uh i didn't realize there are so
many institutions
that were moving into this space as
aggressively as they are what a
difference a year makes
so i guess we'll wrap our session right
now
and uh i want to thank everybody that's
been with us for this session
and will picks but ross thank you for
everything
great great to challenge you michael
good to see you as always take care
likewise cheers bye