Thank you for joining me today.
I was really excited about this opportunity to come and give this keynote and Prague.
And a lot of my speeches have been fireside chats or just discussions and organizers and
Prague, they're very thoughtful and I think they're a bit more organized and they said,
you know, you really should come up with slides and I thought slides.
So this is my first presentation this year with slides.
I'm hoping by the time I finish your Concode there is no second best set of slides.
And without further ado, I'd like to talk about the future of Bitcoin.
So let's start with an observation.
There is an endless economic war raging worldwide.
It has been raging since the beginning of time.
It is going on right now.
That war is over the redistribution of economic energy and we call that wealth, but it is
all of the money and the power in the world right now.
And so we have a nice map of the wealth of the world here.
And the question is how is that wealth being redistributed every single month and every
single year?
There are three primary drivers.
The first driver is government policy.
The most powerful actors in the economic war governments everywhere in the world.
They are moving money around.
And I use money here.
I mean economic energy or wealth.
They are redistributing it.
The second big driver in this economic war is technology.
It's the advent of the apples and the Googles and its electricity and its fire and its cars
and its Tesla and its AIs.
The third driver in this economic war is work.
It's all the hard work.
It's the competition.
It's the energy.
I just brought up in the morning and you go and you when there is much harder you can.
Message down to the government.
One of the strong power needs to give up is that the government is delivered and the
global surpass goes to least cover up the role of the government.
The poor covering up in the mourning, and instead are introduced to the government.
It's premiered the crisis and they have shared that this party has beyond the coronavirus
that happened.
But no older world is still established in the panic.
This is where they are.
volley of..!
There are five countries.
Now, I was thinking about Bitcoin and how Bitcoin plays into all this.
And you can see in my chart, Bitcoin's about $400 billion of this $900 trillion worth of global wealth.
You see gold is 12 trillion and equities are 115 trillion.
It used to be gold was equal to equity.
If you go back 50 years, it used to be gold was about equal to equity.
So what happened? Well, there's a lot of technology in equity.
You know, we talk about gold being a shiny, dead rock, but think about gold mining and think about what technology has done to gold mining in 50 years.
Some of my conductors don't make it easier to mine gold.
Mobile phones don't make it easier to mine gold.
Right? What's happened in equity? Well, you've got Tesla, you've got Apple, you've got Google, you've got Amazon,
you've got the internet, you've got the telephone.
So technology has shifted the balance of power from gold to equity.
Government policy shifting the balance of power. Look at bonds.
Bonds are driven very heavily by government policy.
Real estate driven very heavily by government policy because government policy controls capital and cost of debt.
And that drives real estate.
And of course, there's money over here.
So most important point is the government is changing this, this field, technology is changing this field and you, you can work as hard as you want.
But you're going to have to take into account government policy and technology if you want to actually survive in this world.
The world reserve currency is the dollar.
It's collapsing against assets like the S&P index, like real estate, like gold, like art.
And this is a sobering thought.
If we had sound money, the dollar wouldn't collapse.
But you probably seen this chart.
This is the dollar collapsing against consumer goods.
Consumer goods, you know, the dollar is 95% weaker.
Means consumer goods are 20 times more expensive today than 100 years ago.
Now consumer goods are manufactured items, candy bars, bottles of water, net flex videos.
They're, they're things that are coming off an assembly line and they're getting stamped out with a little variable cost.
This is the cheapest, least scarce stuff in the civilization.
And yet it's 20 times more expensive.
Now a lot of times government officials show you this chart and they say, well, this is the impact of inflation.
This in fact was generated by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
But the sad fact of the matter is, this is as good as it's ever going to get for you.
This is a different picture.
What if it wasn't easy to stamp out manufactured biscuits or net flex videos?
What have you had to do work to dig the gold out of the ground?
Gold is a bit harder.
And so the dollar has collapsed 99% against gold in that same 100 years, not 95%.
By the way, gold is not scarce.
We keep creating more gold.
We get better out of it.
At the end of the day, you know, it's a bit more scarce than net flex videos.
And it's a bit more scarce than drywall.
Let's talk about something that's even more scarce.
The 500 most valuable companies in the S&P.
The US dollar has lost 99.8% of its value against the S&P index over that same 100 years.
This is actually a closer measure to the inflation rate.
This is the world's strongest currency.
This is the currency back by the country that won every war in the last 100 years.
This is as good as it's going to get for you.
This is as good as it gets and will get worse.
Now, how do you measure inflation?
If I measure inflation against something I can manufacture for free, inflation doesn't look that high.
If I measure inflation against a yardstick that is fixed, that's thermodynamically sound, then you see the true measure inflation.
S&P is one example of that.
This is Miami Beach.
Miami Beach runs 96 blocks.
There's that much beach.
100 years ago there was that much beach.
No amount of semiconductor technology or factories make more beach.
The dollar has fallen 99.8% against the beach in 100 years.
That's how you start to see what's really going on with the world's strongest currency.
Now I have some bad news for you.
We're not in America.
We're in another country.
Foreign currencies are collapsing against the dollar.
This is the Argentine peso against the dollar.
In 20 years, the peso goes from 1 to 500.
The peso has lost 99.8% of its value against the dollar at the same time that the dollar has lost 75% of its value against the S&P index.
I'll let you do the math.
If you run a company in Argentina and you're going to work hard, you're going to have to grow your revenues from 1 million pesos to 500 million pesos over 20 years to stand still.
And that's why I say no amount of hard work is going to solve the problem of being on the wrong side of an economic war.
There's only one strategy here.
You have to get out of that peso.
You have to exit.
This is the leora.
This is before this week.
It lost 95% of its value.
Now the number is about 97% of its value against the dollar.
This is the rupee.
It's lost 90% of its value against the dollar.
So that 99.8% loss is another 90%.
So that number is about a number to calculate just how much of your wealth has gone from you to the government.
When the government actually collapses the currency 99.9%.
What it means is over 100 years.
They in essence take all of your wealth and they redistribute it to their cronies to whoever they want.
And that's the rate at which it's going.
This is Pakistan 82% against the dollar.
This is the Brazilian real 65% against the dollar.
Conclusion.
If you want to preserve your wealth, you have to convert that currency into an asset that scares desirable, portable, durable, and maintainable.
Right? There are certain things that are scarce and desirable, but they don't move like beachfront property.
And by the way, maintainable.
If you own a million dollars of property in Miami, you have to pay $20,000 a year every year to maintain it.
And it gets it's assessed up.
So you have to have a million dollars to cover the taxes on a million dollars of property in Miami Beach over about 20 years.
You can't maintain it.
So you're going to be a smart investor.
Here's smart investors. People brag about making money in the stock market.
The S&P index is going up 7 to 8% a year.
And so you must be really smart.
You invested in companies that are making good decisions.
Look at the money supply.
The money supply is going up at the same rate as the S&P index.
And so what you begin to realize is most investment gains aren't really gains at all.
All you're doing is simply tracking the monetary inflation rate if you're lucky.
Now let's talk about all the assets.
Okay, this is a this is a 30 year or 20 year return on asset classes compiled by JP Morgan.
On the far right, you see commodities.
They're awful.
Commodities are silver, gold, natural gas, especially oil, soybeans, lumber, pork bellies.
Why are commodities awful?
Because humans are really good at creating more of them.
And they will drive the price down using technology, ingenuity and capital.
Commodities lose your money. Cash.
Also pretty awful.
Now, you see the inflation rate that the largest bank in the United States marks the market at 2%.
That's what the government tells you their inflation rate target is 2%.
That's their consumer inflation rate.
That's fake.
Right.
Every single 10 years or every few years, I'll just redefine the market basket of goods.
And I'm going to put drywall and manufactured biscuits and Netflix videos and something cheap.
You can be sure I take the expensive stuff and I move it out of the consumer basket and I take cheap stuff.
And I put it in the consumer basket.
And you're moving toward a world where you live in a 300 square foot apartment constructed of drywall sitting on a cheap, rickety plastic chair with a set of goggles on while you're imagine yourself in a beautiful universe with a bunch of digital stuff and you'll get digital health care.
And you'll get digital entertainment and you'll have digital friends and you'll take digital trips to digital vacation destinations in your digital jet.
And everything will be good.
That's the problem with the CPI.
Now,
look at the S&P index, right?
You feel like you're a genius. If you're getting 7.5% against that.
But what have I told you, the real inflation rate of the US dollar over 100 years is about 7.5 to 8%.
That's the actual inflation.
Now, you see the average investor is getting 2.9% when they're smart.
Commodities are less. The S&P is underperforming the inflation rate.
Look in the far left. What's your best chance? It's called a re real estate investment trust.
If you have a property company and you buy the scarce desirable real estate in the middle of London or New York.
And if you can generate a yield on it and if you're really good at it, you might be able to just barely keep your head above water.
But you know, none of these look all that compelling.
Right? I mean, investment consists of either losing your money fast or losing your money slow.
Or after 100 years of brilliance, assuming that the government doesn't fail and you don't have your asset seized.
And I didn't include taxes as long as you don't die.
You don't have any capital gains and you don't have any heritage facts.
You might barely just keep what you had 100 years ago in this world.
Most investors, they just perform poorly because of bad habits.
What kind of bad habits?
This is a 30 year chart of returns on the S&P index.
And this chart tells you that if you missed one day, there's one day every year when 85% 90% of all of the gains come one day.
And there are 36 hours a year when all investment return takes place.
So in 365 days, nothing happens. 99.5% of the time.
This is why we have the laser eyes.
This is why we say, hoddle.
Because, and I have said before, trading Bitcoin is a sign of lesser intellect.
If I were to say 1% of the days you could trade successfully, I would be overstating your odds of success.
You literally have to find the 24 hours out of 365 days when the market moves.
And you will be wrong 99% of the time if you trade.
You're going to sit here and Bitcoin is going to be whatever it's going to be.
And then one day you're going to wake up and it's going to double.
And if you missed that day, you're going to be kicking yourself.
Hoddle. Don't trade.
Most people destroy themselves by thinking that they actually can time the market.
This is a chart as of about a month ago.
And what it shows is year to date, 1% of the companies in the S&P index had all the gain.
If you look at this chart this week, the number for there are 493 companies in the S&P index that have collected we 0% return.
And there is 7 that have 50% return.
And another way to say that is 99% of the companies cannot keep up with inflation.
You think you're going to pick stocks.
You're going to pick the winner.
There's a 99% chance you won't.
And maybe there's a bigger idea here, which is.
If you have one of the greatest companies in the world.
There's a 99% chance after 100 years of being great.
You still can't keep up with inflation.
And this is why I say maybe your hard work doesn't matter as much as government policy matters.
You're not going to find the winner.
99% of the time.
And you remember I've said before.
Diversification.
It's selling the winner to buy the loser.
Right? All these really brilliant investors that diversify.
If they're smart enough to buy Apple or Amazon when they diversify they go from 44% return to 10% return.
And if you manage to I get it right, you may be the 0% return.
So that leads us to the question, what is money?
Right? Because investment assets aren't working so well.
What is money? Well, in theory, money is a way for you to store your economic energy and not have it stolen from you.
By the government.
By a bad investment decision.
Right? Perfect money is in fact the solution to all your problems.
But what is good money?
Gold has been an aspirational money, but it's defective.
And the reason gold is defective is because we keep creating more of it and you can't custody it.
And so if I keep creating two or three percent more, then that means that the half life of your economic energy and gold is 35 years.
Means every 35 years your money is cut in half or the value of your wealth is cut in half.
The only way to make gold perfect is to stop mining it and make it possible to teleport and carry around in your head.
And of course this is not happening with gold.
It is difficult to create sound money.
How difficult?
Well, Bitcoin has gotten 50 trillion times more difficult to mine since it was formed.
50 trillion.
Now what is that telling you?
Well, for the money to be sound, I have to cap this supply.
And in order to cap this supply, I have to make it exponentially more difficult to create it.
And human beings in this small corner of the world, Bitcoiners, who have been ignored.
They figured out how to create 50 trillion times more work in those 14 years.
That's that's what you're fighting against.
And that's why commodities make awful money.
That's why anything that can be produced with human intellect and capital will always be awful money.
Because you're betting against human intellect.
I'm going to actually store my money in something that you can make more of it.
But I'm going to bet you're too stupid to make more of it.
Okay, that's an awful bet.
Somebody somewhere with less money than you has a lot of time on their hand to figure out how to get your money.
That's why you need something like the difficulty adjustment.
And that's why it's so difficult to create sound money.
Bitcoin is sound money.
Now, people around the world use all sorts of assets in order to store their economic energy.
All these monetary assets have a different natural frequency.
For example, oil gets produced with a stock to flow ratio, which is extremely low.
The Argentine peso is doubling in supply every one, two years.
Silver is growing at a fairly rapid rate.
When the dollar inflates at 7% a year, that means that over the course of 10 years, you double the supply of the dollars.
So therefore, the half-life of money in a dollar is 10 years.
As the stock to flow ratio goes up, the half-life and the money goes up.
The natural frequency slows down.
Gold has a half-life of 35 years.
Obviously, gold is a better money than the peso.
It's a better money than soybeans.
But now you see the real key is what is the natural frequency of the asset?
What's brilliant about Bitcoin is it started with a higher frequency, but that natural frequency is going to infinity.
It's becoming a very low frequency money.
Next year after the halving, stock to flow is 120.
The half-life of your economic energy in the money of Bitcoin goes to 100 years.
In year 2036, the half-life of your economic energy in Bitcoin becomes 1,000 years.
In 2048, the half-life of your economic energy in Bitcoin is 10,000 years.
Now, politicians want to tell you that this is impossible.
Commodities and nature tells you this is impossible.
But look at my chart here.
In your lifetime, there is one asset that has a long enough frequency that you can actually expect to keep your money forever.
This is economic immortality.
When stock to flow goes to zero, stock to flow goes to infinity.
The money lasts forever.
If the money lasts forever, you have hope.
That is money.
Perfect money is a way to escape the misery of the economic war that is depriving you, your family, and your company of 99.9%.
Of everything you have with absolute certainty.
And there is no amount of work and there is no amount of trading, no amount of thinking that is going to escape this reality, you're going to have to find this solution.
That is the winning strategy.
There is only one winning strategy that I see.
It is hold the best money.
And if you hold the dollar, which is the best currency, you are going to zero.
If you hold a weaker currency, you are going to zero in a few years.
Gold is a sort of better money than the currency.
Stocks are a better money than gold.
Bitcoin is a better money than the stocks.
Let's talk about this a bit.
The conventional organization company investor, they think the S&P index, they think corporate equity is the best money.
They have monetized it.
And that is what they are using.
I wanted to break down what corporate equity looks like versus Bitcoin.
The traditional return of the S&P index is about 7% a year.
Well, Bitcoin should in theory return 14% a year.
It is returned a lot more.
It is returning 40, 50% a year over the past three years and much higher over a longer period.
But I want to lay out the reason that companies don't work as well as perfect money or digital
money.
First of all, you've got the delusion that comes from management.
The management is going to pay themselves 1% of your return every year.
You've got the risk of labor.
Companies unionize, they have to pay labor, the cost of labor keeps going up.
It's another 1%.
You've got competition.
There's going to be someone that's going to produce more gold or more iPhones or more
something, more computers.
It's going to cost you another 1%.
You've got technology.
You have a really good camera business and then the camera becomes software.
It's going to cost you 1%.
You've got regulation.
The EU is going to actually find Facebook or Google for doing something on the web.
It's going to cost you 1%.
You've got taxation.
If I can locate your employees, locate your management, locate your company, locate your
headquarters, it's going to cost you 1%.
Then you've got war.
The war may be a hot war where you've got a tanker and I blow it up or maybe an economic
war like a terrace.
I'm just going to put a 25% tariff on you.
Companies have all those risks.
If you ask what's the cost of it, about 7% a year.
What you can expect is over time, over 100 years, you're always going to pay the 7%.
What's the implication of getting a 7% yield versus a 14% yield?
Bitcoin actually avoids that.
How does Bitcoin avoid it?
The Bitcoin virtues are, will you replace management with cybernetic control?
The software controls the system, not people.
The software does the work for free.
I replaced labor with a digital system.
I replaced competition with an immaculate conception.
There's only one Bitcoin.
Satoshi gave it as a gift to the world.
There's no competitor.
There's no second best.
Why?
Because someone created this, gave it away to the rest of us without any beneficial interest
in it.
That's what makes it unique, irreplaceable, you know, special.
Instead of technology risk, like the iPhone 15, Bitcoin is just a small amount of money.
There's money, $121 million of everything that's ever going to be.
It's not going to actually obcelesce.
It's immortal products.
In a thousand years, you're going to want to own $121 million of everything there is.
In a hundred thousand years, you're going to want to own $121 million of everything there
is.
That's how you escape the competitive down draft.
And that's how you avoid the technology destruction.
And of course, with regulation, taxation, and war by being a digital asset, you're living
in cyberspace.
You can't destroy it.
It's indestructible, it's incorruptible, it's global.
Bitcoin's going to duck the exposures of these other systems.
So what's the implication of that?
If you had a million dollars today and your company or in your family, and you hold it
in cash in the world reserve currency at a 7% inflation rate, in a hundred years, you
will have in today's dollars $977.
You will go from a million to a thousand.
You'll lose a thousand X.
It's one divided by two to the tenth.
If you take all your million dollars and buy government bonds, you'll end three and a
half percent interest.
You're going to have a three and a half percent negative real yield.
Carry that for a hundred years.
You're going to have $31,000, $3% of your wealth.
If you're brilliant and you invest in the S&P, you're going to have a million dollars.
You'll have the same value, the same wealth in a hundred years you have right now, but
no more.
If you take half of it and invest it in Bitcoin and the other half of the S&P, you're going
to have 512 million dollars.
If you go 100% Bitcoin, you're going to be a billionaire.
All you're going to do is flip your million dollars into Bitcoin, hold it at 7% real
yield a hundred years, and that's the money you have times two to the tenth.
You can see in a very simple way, there's a winning strategy, there's a losing strategy.
The other strategy is the trading, the investing, it's just a waste of time.
You could ask, what about the real world?
Here's real world in the last two and a half years since micro strategy entered Bitcoin.
Bitcoin is outperform the S&P, the NASDAQ, Gold, Silver, and Bonds.
Bonds are destroying wealth, Silver is destroying wealth, Gold is destroying wealth.
Bitcoin's crushing everybody.
You can say, well, what about micro strategy?
All the guys on Twitter, they're all like Twitter trolls.
You lost some money investing in Bitcoin.
That's the micro strategy performance.
That is your company on a Bitcoin standard.
That is your family on a Bitcoin standard.
You keep dollar cost averaging or Bitcoin cost averaging.
At the end of the day, it doesn't matter what price you buy, what matters is you keep buying
and you don't sell and you don't invest in the bonds, the silver, the gold, and the rest.
The future, the world is an economic war, but the world is beginning to realize Bitcoin
is a superior asset.
As they realize that, Bitcoin is going to demonetize all these other assets over time.
It's going to first demonetize gold because gold doesn't make any sense and then it's
going to demonetize the other store of value assets, the real estate, the S&P index, the
bonds.
You're going to get a 30-X bump as we demonetize gold, but there's no reason why you can't
have a 500-X increase and today's dollars might demonetize these other things.
I'll end with this thought.
We have laser eyes because laser eyes say focus on what you can change, save what you can
save.
In this particular case, you can make Bitcoin a success.
You can tell the world about Bitcoin.
No country can stop inflation.
Nobody can stop inflation.
I can put you in charge of the world.
You cannot stop inflation.
99% of the companies cannot outrun inflation.
99% of the workers cannot outrun inflation.
1% may beat the market by skill and luck.
Don't assume you'll be the 1%.
Everybody, everybody can buy Bitcoin.
So buy Bitcoin.
Thank you.