SaylorCorpus

Why Chaos Benefits Bitcoin

MMCrypto · 2023-11-12 · 1h 14m · View on X →

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And that gets you to a number 10 million dollars a Bitcoin when we're 20% of the world's

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wealth and today's dollars.

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Today for the Bitcoin price and guys believe it or not, I am here for the fourth time with

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the one and only, the only person who can compete with me for the title of the biggest

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crypto Bitcoin bull I have to say in the universe.

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His name is Michael Sailor.

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You hurt his name already if you are in Bitcoin for longer than a day.

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I want to welcome you first and then go into some juicy questions about Bitcoin, about

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prices, about what's going on right now in the market, micro strategy, your plans and

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much more.

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Things which partially maybe no one has heard about before.

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So let's go straight into it.

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First of all, I want to ask you, dear Michael, thanks for joining for the first time,

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for the fourth time on this channel here.

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How are you doing to them, man?

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I'm fine.

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Happy to be here.

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And I'm happy.

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Thanks for having me.

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If I have to decide who I want to interview, I have a top three.

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I think Elon Musk would be in there.

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You are definitely in there and that's why I just really, really feel very grateful that

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you take your time.

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Let's get straight into it.

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I think the videos I made with you are one of the best performing ones on my channel, which

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is more than six years old.

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So I know this is going to go through the roof again.

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I just want to incentivize everyone before we go into the questions.

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Kindly go down below.

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Let's play by the YouTube rules.

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Like the video.

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Share it with your friends.

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Share it on YouTube with a dear friend.

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Someone maybe you want to convince about Bitcoin.

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Someone in your family who's still asking, hey man, are you still in Bitcoin?

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Why are you doing that?

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It was going down for two years.

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Send this video to them.

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I think it will convince them.

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Now let's go straight into the content.

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And before I'm asking some more detailed questions, I wanted to ask you the last video was

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quite some time ago.

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I think in summer, 22, what has changed?

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What is the holdings of micro strategy of Bitcoin?

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How many Bitcoin is micro strategy holding?

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How many Bitcoin are you holding privately?

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Has anything changed since then?

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I know you are the biggest bull in the universe, but I wanted to refine on these numbers.

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So people who are watching this video understand how deep you are in crypto and Bitcoin.

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Okay.

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Well, I think in the fall of 2020, I disclosed that I acquired 17,732 Bitcoin.

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And I haven't sold any.

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You know, you don't sell your Bitcoin.

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And then micro strategy and its latest quarterly release announced that it had now reached 158,400

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Bitcoin.

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So we have just been consistently acquiring more Bitcoin and we've done it through a dozen

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or more different transactions, cash buys, debt issuances, equity issuances, etc.

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So generally, you could say that I'm long Bitcoin.

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I think micro strategy is getting close to having invested $4.7 billion of cash of real

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money in Bitcoin, just slightly less something like that.

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And I bought the 17,732 Bitcoin back when it was about below 10,000.

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So I probably invested $175 million of cash at that time in Bitcoin.

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Obviously, we're long term.

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So it doesn't really matter what you spend to buy it.

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It matters more about how many Bitcoin you have and whether you're still holding the Bitcoin

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with Bitcoin, hit some million or 10 million or coin.

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Beautiful.

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I mean, these numbers are definitely music to my eyes.

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You also said something.

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You don't sell your Bitcoin.

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One of the questions people asked when I asked them, hey, what questions should I ask

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Michael?

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Was is he ever planning to sell Bitcoin?

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I know my personal answer.

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If someone is asking me, I'm saying no.

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I want to diversify maybe in the future out into other asset classes, right?

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I want to sell Bitcoin to buy farmland or to buy other commodities.

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But I'm not selling Bitcoin to buy, to get more US dollar.

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The BS I try to escape in the first place, getting more of that is not really desirable for

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I want to know from you, are you going to sell your Bitcoin or is micro strategy planning

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to sell any of their Bitcoin holdings in the future for cash or anything else?

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Is that something you can maybe disclose already?

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You know, I don't think it's very wise to sell Bitcoin.

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I'm a Bitcoin maximalist.

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And so Bitcoin maximalist means a lot of things to a lot of different people.

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But certainly what it means from an investor point of view is I view Bitcoin as the apex

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asset.

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So micro strategy is a public company.

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Our strategy is literally to acquire more Bitcoin.

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Our strategy is not to trade.

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Our strategy is not diversified investments and a portfolio of technology companies.

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Our strategy is very simple.

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We're a levered long Bitcoin operating company.

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If you think about us comparing us to like a spot Bitcoin ETF, a spot Bitcoin ETF would

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only own Bitcoin, but it would be unlevered and it would charge you a fee.

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And our strategy is we use intelligent leverage.

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For example, we borrowed $2.2 billion at 1.6% interest blended.

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So we have very intelligent leverage long term, not marked a market, and then we buy Bitcoin

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and then we don't charge a fee.

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And we generate a premium because when we generate cash flows or we do a creative

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financing, we then convert that into Bitcoin for the benefit of our shareholders.

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So what micro strategy the public company, we have a transparent strategy.

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And the key with the public company is when you adopt a strategy, you need to be consistent.

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You need to be transparent.

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Like for example, if I created a REIT that invested in premium office space in New York

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and London and I raised capital for that, you would want me to invest in premium office

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space in New York and London.

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And if I said, oh, yeah, the market is, you know, I got the point where I'm going to sell

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that and buy Kansas City farmland and I'm going to trade some digital assets or whatever.

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You would think, I can't really trust this company because I don't know what they're

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going to do.

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And if I don't know what they're going to do, then I don't want to invest my capital with

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them.

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So it's very important for a public company to have a strategy to be understandable and

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to be consistent in that strategy and transparent.

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So micro strategies, strategy is acquire and hold Bitcoin.

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By any means, a creative, by a creative, it means, you know, when you get done with the

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transaction, you want your public company shareholders to feel like they have more Bitcoin

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per share or they have accreted their Bitcoin holdings and not deluded their Bitcoin holdings.

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And with regard to myself, I'm long Bitcoin, man.

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Like everybody else, I'm wishing I had bought more Bitcoin when it was 9500, a Bitcoin,

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right?

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It's, you know, ultimately, it's the best thing you can do.

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Let's talk about performance though.

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For example, since micro strategy bought Bitcoin, we ended the market August 10th, August

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10th, 2020.

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And so what's happened to all these asset classes when you think about diversification?

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Well, between August 10th and October 31st, you know, when we published our results and

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our quarterly, our quarterly result of micro strategy, then Bitcoin was up 192%.

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And that, that works out to compound it annual growth rate of more than 40%.

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And the S&P is up 25%.

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And the NASDAQs up 17%, gold lost 1%, silver lost 18%, bonds lost 24%.

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So in terms of asset classes, Bitcoin is outrunning all of the other conventional asset classes.

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And if you invested in anything other than super, maybe magnificent seven, you're just

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not keeping up with inflation.

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But the magnificent seven stocks, if you look at them, while Bitcoin was up 192%, Google

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was up 68%.

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Microsoft was up 62%.

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Apple was up 51%.

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Metagroop was up 15%.

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Netflix lost 15%.

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Amazon lost 15%.

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So big tech doesn't look like such a good diversification versus Bitcoin.

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And, you know, so how micro strategy do?

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Well, micro strategy was up 242%.

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So we actually outperformed Bitcoin.

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Because we're levered long, Bitcoin, right?

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We used intelligent leverage.

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We borrowed money to buy more Bitcoin.

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We didn't just put our assets into Bitcoin.

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We found a way to borrow a billion dollars at zero percent interest by Bitcoin, right?

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So if you can do that, I highly recommend you do that.

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The caveat being you can't borrow the money at zero percent interest if it's a margin

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loan because you might get wiped out on Saturday night while you're sleeping.

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It can't be a market market.

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It needs to be like a seven year, nine year, five year term loan that isn't market to market

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for that to be intelligent leverage.

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So you want to diversify, you know, I would say, my anybody said, I like Bitcoin, but

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I got to be diversified.

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It is, okay, fine.

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Buy a portfolio of scarce desirable assets that you want to hold for the next 30 years.

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And it has to pass, you know, the Bernard Arno test.

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It has to be something that a person richer than you and more sophisticated than you and

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more culture than you and smarter than you will want to buy from you in a decade.

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And if you come up with that thing, maybe it's a Leonardo da Vinci painting or maybe it's

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professional sports team, you know, the Patriots.

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Maybe it's the, maybe it's the middle of London, you know, you know, do you want to buy,

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you know, the center of the city?

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I don't know.

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But what I would say this is you could buy the best companies in the world and the best

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real estate in the world is still going to underperform Bitcoin for a lot of reasons we

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can talk about.

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You know, if if you made a lot of money, you know, Bitcoin 10 X's are 100 X's and you

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made a lot of money and you want to be diversified, then you buy scarce desirable properties,

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but you'll underperform.

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If you, you know, if you're a Bitcoin maximalist, you just realize the cost of capital is,

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Bitcoin's going up 40% a year.

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The cost of capital is 40%.

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That means anything that you invest in has to yield that, which is kind of the risk-free

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cost of capital for a Bitcoin maximalist plus the risk premium.

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So if you came and you pitched me an idea today, Michael, I've got this company that's

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really smart and is going to outperform, you know, Bitcoin.

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I'd say, well, then you have to do 40% plus another 10 or 20%.

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So if you can promise me 60% for the next decade each year, right?

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Like what's my forecast?

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My forecast is Bitcoin goes up 40% than 35, then 30, then 25, then 20.

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And like 10 to 20 years out, it's clipping along at 20% and then over course of 100 years,

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it's growing 14% a year.

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And against that, the S&P index will probably grow 7% a year.

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The money supply will grow 7% a year.

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So if you diversify in the S&P index, you're just going to maintain your wealth, track the

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money supply if you get lucky.

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I have a question.

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And especially if Bitcoin's going to outperform that.

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Go ahead.

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With such a long-term outlook, if we are looking at the next 100 years, do you even think

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it is possible that the US dollar will not even talking about the other fear currencies.

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I think it's all falling knives.

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All of these falling knives will eventually hit the ground.

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Everything is falling faster than the US dollar in terms of fear currencies.

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But I think even the US dollar will hit the ground.

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It's a falling knife as well.

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Do you think it will sustain over the next 100 years?

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Will we even measure Bitcoin in US dollar in even 20, 30, 40 years time?

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Or do you think this system will collapse eventually?

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100 years ago, an acre of property in Miami Beach was about $10,000.

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And now it'll be about 20 million.

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So that's a factor of 2000 increase in price.

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That's against a fixed yardstick.

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If you do the calculation, the US dollar is being inflated and supply 7% a year for 100 years.

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Weak currency.

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That's the strong currency.

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That's the world reserve currency is increasing and supply 7%.

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So the asset inflation rate in dollars is 7% a year over 100 years.

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That's how you get from $10,000 an acre to $10 million an acre.

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Now, weak currencies in the developing world are inflating at 14% a year,

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unless they're really mismanaged and they're inflating at 21% a year.

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But I give you a simple fact.

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If you start with a million dollars and you hold it in dollars

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in currency that's being inflated and supply 7% a year,

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after 100 years, your million dollars is worth about 700 bucks.

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But what do you think it's worth if you're holding it in 14% debase in currencies?

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28 cents.

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Okay, so, so quite a way the weak currencies don't last 100 years

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because people are smart enough to realize that a million dollars going to 28 cents

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is not a good investment.

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But the strong currency is taking you from a million dollars to $700.

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And that's the rate in the last 100 years when the US is winning all the wars.

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We're winning all the wars.

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So the next 100 years, I don't think it, you know, the question of what's,

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you know, what's the future of all these currencies in these countries?

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They, the Euro versus the one versus the dollar.

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I don't think it's really that relevant.

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I think what's relevant is you just have two choices or we have three.

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You, you either hold your, your money in the strongest currency in the world.

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And you're losing 7% a year.

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You're being cut in half every decade.

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You're being cut in half 10 times in a hundred years.

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And you're going from a million to, you know, 700 bucks.

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Or you put your money in the weak currency and you're being cut in half every three or four years.

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And you're going from a million dollars to 28 cents.

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Or you put your money into a diversified portfolio of conventional assets,

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conventional real estate, conventional, if you invest in reats,

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securitized real estate, or you invest in, in, uh,

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S&P companies, big companies, you're probably going to grow at seven or eight percent

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nominally.

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The money is going to lose seven or eight percent of its value in real terms.

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And in a hundred years, the, the million dollars of purchasing power you have today

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will be a million dollars in a hundred years.

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You won't have gone bankrupt.

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You just won't have made anything.

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So if you want to actually beat that seven percent hurdle rate,

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then you need to strip away the risk and the liability from the asset class.

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So the risk is your property is seized.

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The risk is an earthquake.

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It hits it.

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The risk is a flood.

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The risk is rain.

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The risk is the executive running the bank steals the money.

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The risk is the person that the tenant and your building sets it on fire.

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Or they don't pay their rent.

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The risk is the mayor rent controls your property.

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The risk is, you know, such and such company.

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No key.

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I can't compete with Apple and Blackberry.

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Can't compete with Google, you know, and such and such.

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Can't compete with AI or you get unionized.

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I could give you a hundred risks.

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But the bottom line is the reason the conventional assets like real estate and like stocks,

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the reason they can't beat Bitcoin is they can't get away from the risk and the liability

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of having human beings operating a physical property in the real world

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because lightning strikes in the real world and governments act in the real world.

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So Bitcoin is, in my opinion, over a hundred years, theoretically in the long run,

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it's like a 14% versus a 7% monetary inflation rate.

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Now, if you look backwards, I mean, there's a time when Bitcoin was growing 200% a year,

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then 100% a year.

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And the last 40 months have been 40 to 50% a year.

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So clearly, it's reasonable for Bitcoin growth to be cooling at some point.

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But the difference between 14% and 7% is the difference between your million dollars

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becoming a billion.

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At 14%, your million dollars becomes a billion dollars of purchasing power, right?

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And at 7%, your million dollars stays a million dollars, right?

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Do you want to double 10 times in a row?

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That's 14 versus 7.

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Or do you want to basically break even 10 times in a row every decade?

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So ultimately, you can get excited in the near term about hyper growth, Bitcoin,

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the 40%, 50% Bitcoin, that's hyper growth.

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And I can give you a dozen reasons why it will continue to grow more than 14% over the next decade.

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Or so.

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But if you're the reason that thinking out a hundred years makes sense,

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is because when you think out three generations, it's very clarifying.

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And it allows you to avoid all the noise and all the confusion and all the sound and fury.

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And everybody wants to like wave smoke and mirrors in front of you and get you to juggle razor blades

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and shock in all you in order to get you to give them your money.

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It's like, for example, if you were the royal family of the UK, and I said,

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oh, there's a pandemic in London.

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But there's no pandemic in the middle of this island in the Atlantic.

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So I will trade you a thousand acres in the middle of the Atlantic

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for the center of London and Buckingham Palace, you know, and Chelsea.

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Would you trade in a panic?

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Because if you did, when the pandemic ends, you would realize that you own something worth nothing.

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And you gave up the middle of London that was worth a hundred billion dollars.

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And so that's why everybody's going to always try to get you to panic.

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They're always going to basically fudge you.

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They're going to say, oh, this is not safe.

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That is not safe.

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And their goal is to get your Bitcoin from you.

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They may not have been realized they're trying to get their Bitcoin from you.

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But they want to be relevant, right?

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What I'm saying is you own the most desirable thing in the universe

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and you lock it away and you wait for a hundred years.

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And your family is rich.

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And what and if that's the case, then why would you ever watch their television show?

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Why would you ever give them your money?

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Why would you ever pay them a commission?

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Why would you give them a 2% management fee and a 20% participation?

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Why would you buy their altcoin?

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Why would you buy their stock?

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Why would you hire them to give you advice?

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Why would you read their writing?

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Why would you listen to their videos?

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I was like, you don't really need to do any of that.

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If you just buy Bitcoin and hold it.

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And so that's why the rational thing to do is think like,

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think like the emperor of Japan.

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I mean, haven't they like owned the middle of Tokyo for a thousand years or something?

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Or think like the king of England.

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Don't they own the middle of London for the last thousand years?

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And if you go look at the royal family in the UAE,

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it's illegal to buy beachfront real estate in the Emirates, unless you're a royal.

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They won't just sell it to you.

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And it's because smart people realize that you should keep the high quality

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property for the next 100 years.

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You can't go buy the middle of central park no matter how much you bid.

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You know, I can't buy it for a billion and acre.

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They're the city of New York will not sell it to me because they're thinking out long term.

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And if you had sold central park at any point in the past 100 years,

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for any amount of money within reason for a 200% premium to the going rate of real estate,

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it would have been a mistake, right?

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It's always the mistake to sell the good thing and buy the average thing or the conventional thing.

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I agree.

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I agree with everything.

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And how I look at it is that money is more understood for me like energy.

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So the reason why US dollar is basically gaining towards weaker currencies is because it's

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suckering up the energy from the second world third world currencies.

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But how I see it coming in the future, which is why I asked whether you think the US dollar

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will survive.

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We have a new player in the space now.

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And I think Bitcoin is superior.

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And with all the collapses with all the recessions coming in the future, I see Bitcoin as a superior

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asset class and potentially superior currency, suckering up the energy from the US dollar as

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well, right?

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Yeah, I think so.

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I was doing that towards other currencies.

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A lot of it's a lot of times people think about currencies because of the term crypto currency.

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But I think a more constructive metaphor is to think of it as digital property rather

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than a digital currency.

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The use of a currency is as a medium of exchange.

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And the benefit of a currency is, it's a tax-free medium of exchange.

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So when you make something legal tender in Japan or Russia or China or the US or Europe,

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it means that you can trade it a hundred times a day at high frequency.

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And all the accounting systems are locked on to that currency like the euro of the dollar.

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And there's no tax, there's no taxable event.

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So companies and governments are always going to want to price things and trade things in

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the fiat currency as long as there's a government, right?

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The only time that you're going to use a non-fiat currency for high frequency, medium

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and exchange is when you're in a zone where the currency is literally collapsed.

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Like when it's, if you're in Africa or some war zone and the currency is literally

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collapsed, there is no government and there is no effective currency, then maybe.

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But in all the places in the world where the currency or the government's functional, the

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currency is functional.

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So instead of thinking about that Bitcoin replacing that currency, which distracts you and

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it causes you to make all these mental mistakes.

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Like people go, well, it's only valuable replaces the currency, but it's volatile and

0:24:42

it's not built in the accounting system and it's taxable.

0:24:44

So therefore it's not going to replace the currency.

0:24:46

And so therefore I won't buy it.

0:24:48

See that takes you down a rat hole where you kind of tie yourself in knots and a stray

0:24:53

jacket and you come to the wrong conclusion.

0:24:56

The right way to think about this is Bitcoin is going to replace all the assets that are

0:25:02

currency derivatives and it's going to replace all of the assets that are weaker properties.

0:25:08

So for example, I'm still going to use the dollar to pay my employees, but maybe I won't

0:25:15

hold sovereign debt or corporate debt on my balance sheet.

0:25:20

Maybe I'll replace the debt with Bitcoin, right?

0:25:23

Do I want to wait 30 years and get paid three or four percent interest for 30 years or

0:25:28

do I want to own Bitcoin, which is appreciating at 40% a year and in the extreme, we'll appreciate

0:25:33

say 14% a year, right?

0:25:36

Tax free or tax deferred.

0:25:38

So if you think about it, Bitcoin's replacing bonds.

0:25:42

It's not replacing the CNY, the euro or the USD.

0:25:45

It's replacing the bonds that are paying coupons in euros or CNY or USD.

0:25:53

And then it's replacing value stocks because you bought that value stock like that utility

0:25:57

company because it pays a dividend and it pays the dividend in USD or euros or CNY.

0:26:03

So if the value of the currency is falling 7% a year, then the value of the discounted cash

0:26:10

flows is also falling, right?

0:26:12

The discount rate is the 7%.

0:26:16

So you got to take the cash flow from the value stock and take the risk-free rate of 7%

0:26:23

back on a risk premium of 5% and you have to discount the cash flows of the value stock

0:26:28

by 12% a year.

0:26:30

So you see, if you think about the math, you realize that the value of the cash flows from

0:26:36

the company are falling exponentially and the higher the inflation rate, the less valuable

0:26:41

the cash flows in the future.

0:26:43

Now what kind of company don't I want to own?

0:26:45

Well, a company that has a 1% growth rate in a 7 or 8% inflationary environment because

0:26:54

the cash flows are growing at 1% and you're discounting them at 12% because of the risk premium,

0:27:01

right?

0:27:02

So that's minus 11% every year forever.

0:27:05

On the other hand, if the company is a monopoly and it's growing its cash flows at 20% a year

0:27:14

and the inflation is 7%, then I might think that I might want to own that kind of company.

0:27:21

Now off the top of your head, what kind of company is a monopoly can grow its cash flows

0:27:25

20% a year for the next decade?

0:27:28

How many do you know?

0:27:31

That's like the magnificent 7, okay?

0:27:34

There's 7,000 public companies and 7 of them, Google, Apple, Microsoft are the most famous,

0:27:43

right?

0:27:44

You can literally, if you're a company, you can probably move to a different country

0:27:51

more easily than you can switch your systems from using Microsoft.

0:27:57

So Microsoft and Apple and Google are more powerful than most nation states, right?

0:28:03

That's how powerful they are.

0:28:05

So 7 companies generate all the return.

0:28:09

7,000 companies don't generate shareholder return.

0:28:15

I just explained to you why.

0:28:17

Because if the inflation rate is 7% to 10%, then you have to be able to guarantee me that you can grow cash flows at 12% to 20% a year for the next decade every single year.

0:28:31

And the truth is, no, by definition, if you're not a monopoly, you can't, right?

0:28:38

Real estate leases are kept at CPI.

0:28:41

So if the CPI is 2% and the real monetary inflation rate is 7%, it's very difficult to raise my rents that fast.

0:28:50

It's very difficult to raise my prices that fast.

0:28:52

It's very difficult to raise my revenues that fast and the cash flow is that fast.

0:28:58

So ultimately, what you have is an example where the monetary inflation rate is benefiting people that own a scarce asset like Bitcoin and it's undermining the other assets.

0:29:17

And so instead of focusing upon currency because, you know, we, there's 900 trillion dollars of like wealth in the world.

0:29:26

You only need 30 trillion to 60 trillion of working capital to basically trade high frequency to buy things and et cetera.

0:29:34

The other $850 trillion is invested in real estate bonds stocks collectibles.

0:29:45

So you see, if Bitcoin is the strongest asset, then what's going to happen is people are going to say, I'm not going to, I'm not going to invest in real estate and value it at 25 or 30 times rent.

0:29:58

I'm going to value it at 10 times rent.

0:30:01

And so maybe I've overvalued the real estate by a factor of two.

0:30:06

And so I sell the real estate and I buy Bitcoin.

0:30:09

And I'm not going to value the S&P index at 25 times earnings.

0:30:13

I'm going to value it at 12 times earnings.

0:30:15

I'm going to sell the S&P index and buy Bitcoin.

0:30:18

You see, as we demonetize, I'm not going to value the bonds.

0:30:23

Why would I hold a bond that yields 3 or 4% if I get paid 5% interest after tax?

0:30:29

It's 3%.

0:30:30

So you're getting 3% after tax return on a bond.

0:30:36

And a Bitcoin returns 14 or 15%.

0:30:39

Then why would I sell some of my bonds and buy some more Bitcoin?

0:30:43

So what you have is capital.

0:30:45

It's flowing from the weaker assets to the stronger assets in weak countries where there's hyperinflation.

0:30:53

The currency collapses.

0:30:55

Well, then what happens is I sell my pesos and my boulevards and I buy dollars.

0:31:01

And so you see that on the edge of the economy where I'm trading the weak currency asset

0:31:06

for a strong currency asset.

0:31:08

But don't make the mistake of thinking that's the right idea.

0:31:12

That makes sense when you're in a crisis situation, a hyperinflation situation.

0:31:19

For most of the people that live in Japan, in Europe, in the United States, in the developed

0:31:27

world where there are healthy economies in the Middle East, the right trade is you trade

0:31:34

your weak assets or your currency derivatives for non-currency derivative for the strong

0:31:41

asset.

0:31:43

So what are things that people value not based on cash flows like a Picasso painting, a

0:31:51

franchise, a trophy asset, the middle of the city, you know, 10 acres in Palm Beach,

0:31:59

beachfront property, things that the reason that real estate in Miami Beach goes up faster

0:32:09

than the CPI is because you can't make more linear beachfront real estate in Miami Beach,

0:32:16

right?

0:32:17

There's like, there's eight miles or something and you can't make it 16 miles or 36 miles.

0:32:22

If the government could somehow bend dimensions and create 1,000 miles of beachfront property,

0:32:28

then beachfront real estate wouldn't be a good investment.

0:32:32

So you see here, I'm not, you know, all of the Bitcoin haters, they always jump in

0:32:39

up on top of this, it's not a good currency because, you know, it's volatile and because

0:32:44

people won't sell you things in it and you can't buy things with it.

0:32:49

And they have basically brainwashed and straight-jacketed themself mentally by picking the wrong

0:32:56

model.

0:32:58

And the right way for them to think is if I gave you a hundred billion dollars of real

0:33:04

estate in Africa and if every country was unstable in its government and if the people

0:33:11

that ran the country didn't like you, would you keep the real estate in Africa or would

0:33:18

you trade it for Bitcoin?

0:33:21

And once you get that idea through your head, if you lose confidence in the policies

0:33:26

of a government or if I gave you a billion dollars of stock in a company, but the CEO

0:33:33

was crazy, would you keep the stock or would you trade it for Bitcoin?

0:33:40

When you lose confidence in an executive, when you lose confidence in a company, when

0:33:44

you lose confidence in a country, when you lose confidence in a currency, most of your

0:33:49

wealth is tied up in the real estate and in the assets in the country and in the stocks

0:33:56

that are exposed to the country.

0:33:58

So as the world sees chaos, as they get nervous, you trade the assets that are exposed to

0:34:07

the chaos risk, to the counterparty risk.

0:34:10

And you buy the asset which is not a currency derivative, it's not a country derivative.

0:34:16

Bitcoin doesn't care about the company's management team, it doesn't care about the employees,

0:34:22

it doesn't care about the country it's in, it doesn't care about the currency as

0:34:25

and you see, you're moving out of that dimension.

0:34:29

And so what you really got is something like 99.5% or 99.9% of the wealth of the world,

0:34:40

exposed to country and currency and company risk.

0:34:46

And Bitcoin is the alternative.

0:34:48

So we don't have to replace the CNY or the Yen or the Euro or the dollar for Bitcoin

0:34:56

to go from where it is to 10 million coin.

0:34:59

All we have to do is educate the people that own everything in the world, that Bitcoin

0:35:06

is digital property.

0:35:08

And once they understand that Bitcoin is digital property, they realize they're overexposed

0:35:13

to physical property, they're overexposed to physical companies.

0:35:17

They're overexposed to physical stocks.

0:35:20

They're overexposed to physical collectibles, they're overexposed to gold.

0:35:26

And people aren't stupid, right?

0:35:28

They're rational.

0:35:29

Once they understand this thing is better, they just start selling the thing that is imperfect

0:35:37

and buying the better thing.

0:35:39

And the capital flows from the traditional 20th century economy into the digital economy

0:35:46

of the 21st century.

0:35:48

Bitcoin's price adjusts up because the supply is fixed.

0:35:53

As the price goes up, awareness increases.

0:35:56

As awareness increases, investment in the ecosystem increases.

0:36:00

As that increases, regulatory clarity increases.

0:36:04

People build more products like the spot ETFs.

0:36:07

They build new exchanges.

0:36:09

They build new custodians.

0:36:11

Personal banks offer custody services.

0:36:15

Conventional banks offer credit services.

0:36:17

Insurance companies get involved.

0:36:19

Politicians get involved.

0:36:21

Eventually big tech gets involved pretty soon.

0:36:23

It gets built into the iPhone.

0:36:24

It gets built into Google.

0:36:25

It gets built into Microsoft.

0:36:27

As it gets built into these things, retail and institutional awareness builds.

0:36:32

As it builds, people realize they're overexposed.

0:36:35

New use cases get commercialized.

0:36:38

Bitcoin breaks the new use cases, demand increases.

0:36:41

The price moves up.

0:36:42

Rinse and repeat.

0:36:43

The entire thing is a virtual cycle.

0:36:46

And it's a reflexive cycle or a positive feedback loop.

0:36:51

And because Bitcoin is just pure money, right?

0:36:58

It's just as effective at 100,000 coin as 10,000 coin.

0:37:03

And at a million of coin, it's just as effective.

0:37:05

And at 10 million of coin, it's just, it's probably more compelling.

0:37:08

At 10 million of coin, then a million or 100,000 of coin, it's kind of a universally scalable

0:37:16

asset that gets less risky.

0:37:19

The only thing that's going to change in my opinion is when it was super risky and scary

0:37:24

below 10,000, you were getting 100 to 200% a year annualized gains.

0:37:29

And then when it got a bit more understandable between 10,000 and 100,000, your gains go to

0:37:34

40 or 50% a year.

0:37:36

And then at some point they go to 30 and then 20.

0:37:39

And in the extreme, if everybody in the world understood Bitcoin, it would be 20, 30,

0:37:46

40% of the wealth of the world.

0:37:49

So it'd be 200, 300 trillion in today's dollars.

0:37:54

And then the price would be appreciating at the rate of global inflation and the Fiat

0:38:03

currency.

0:38:04

So if global inflation rate remains at seven, it would still be appreciating at seven.

0:38:08

And then it would appreciate a little bit more because the productivity of the people

0:38:12

that adopted as a treasury reserve asset.

0:38:15

So like when my strategy makes money and cash flows, we sweep our cash flow into Bitcoin.

0:38:21

So we're dollar cost averaging or we're Bitcoin cost averaging.

0:38:25

And when you earn money, if you understand Bitcoin is your treasury asset every year,

0:38:29

you make some more money or every month or every quarter.

0:38:32

And so you buy a bit more Bitcoin.

0:38:34

And so the price of Bitcoin is going to just up based on the productivity of the ecosystem

0:38:41

and the inflation.

0:38:43

And of course, technology will just keep advancing.

0:38:45

And so technology is going to drive down the cost of everything else, but is not going

0:38:51

to drive down the price of Bitcoin is going to drive up the demand for Bitcoin and drive

0:38:56

up the utility of Bitcoin.

0:38:57

So Bitcoin will continue to appreciate due to adoption, technical utility, productivity

0:39:04

of the people that use it and then the Fiat currency inflation rate and the frame of

0:39:08

reference, whatever that is.

0:39:11

And look, if God kings take over the world and they run out, you know, if an AI ran

0:39:18

the world perfectly smarter than any human being has ever run the world, maybe they

0:39:22

input and introduce the perfect Fiat currency and they eliminate inflation and the Fiat currency.

0:39:29

So the future AI dollar has zero inflation, but it's a medium of exchange and it's a great

0:39:36

way for people to do accounting and the like Bitcoin still going up in value because the

0:39:42

technical utility of Bitcoin is going to continue.

0:39:46

And and the productivity is going to continue.

0:39:49

The truth of the matter is there's always going to be chaos in the physical world.

0:39:54

There's always going to be chaos in the political world.

0:39:57

And that chaos under it, it devalues currency, it devalues physical property and it devalues

0:40:06

companies because it's happening in the physical world like that title wave.

0:40:10

But that chaos is going to increase the value of Bitcoin for two reasons.

0:40:17

There's a big idea.

0:40:18

The first reason is as people lose confidence in the countries and the companies and the currencies,

0:40:24

they and their and their other assets, they'll run to Bitcoin.

0:40:27

That's one reason chaos is an engine for Bitcoin.

0:40:30

But the second reason is if you got drunk and you burned down your building, you would

0:40:38

destroy capital.

0:40:39

If you got angry and you and you destroyed your company or you did a stupid thing like

0:40:48

maybe you produced the wrong product and nobody wanted to buy it and you bankrupted

0:40:53

your company, you've destroyed capital.

0:40:55

If you start a war and you bomb another country and you wipe out the entire city and

0:41:00

all their factories, you've destroyed capital.

0:41:04

So chaos in the real world destroys capital.

0:41:08

But if you get drunk on a Saturday night and then you go swimming and you lose all your

0:41:14

Bitcoin because you drop your hardware wall in the ocean.

0:41:17

Or if you forget your seed phrase or if you have it in your head and someone shoot you

0:41:24

and it's gone forever, you've actually not destroyed the value.

0:41:29

You've actually accreted the value of everybody else's Bitcoin.

0:41:33

Right?

0:41:33

So chaos that destroys your keys and the Bitcoin that's lost is actually not lost.

0:41:42

If I burn down half the buildings in the world, you've destroyed half of the real estate

0:41:47

capital in the world.

0:41:48

But if I lose half of the Bitcoin stored in hardware wallets or in your keys, I haven't lost

0:41:54

anything. I've just doubled the value of everybody else's Bitcoin.

0:41:58

So you see chaos strengthens Bitcoin as an asset class and drives more capital into the

0:42:06

asset class.

0:42:08

Whereas chaos is undermining everything else in the conventional 20th century economy.

0:42:13

So that's why I'm bullish on Bitcoin in general.

0:42:17

And I think that as other people learn this, if they figure it out, as the education spreads,

0:42:25

then you're owning a bunch of capital and you realize, oh, my, I'm exposed to chaos on this

0:42:29

side of my portfolio.

0:42:31

And I benefit from chaos on this side of my portfolio.

0:42:35

There's a famous book called anti-fragile.

0:42:37

And the whole theory of anti-fragile is things that get stronger under disorder.

0:42:43

Things that get better under chaos, right?

0:42:46

So Bitcoin is that thing getting better under disorder, not getting weaker.

0:42:51

And most everything else, every other idea is probably getting weaker under disorder.

0:42:57

And that is actually why I want to take my next question towards because chaos is all

0:43:05

over the world right now.

0:43:06

We are looking at a lot of conflicts, armed conflicts, wars.

0:43:10

Unfortunately, and when I talk to people who are no kindness, many of them are saying,

0:43:16

oh, do you really think it's a good time to buy Bitcoin or to hold Bitcoin right now?

0:43:20

We are looking at the potential recession coming stock market pressure recession, unemployment

0:43:25

rates, armed conflicts, wars and so on.

0:43:28

I personally think Bitcoin was created exactly for that.

0:43:32

I think this is fuel to Bitcoin.

0:43:35

But many, many people don't think so.

0:43:37

And they put reason behind by saying, okay, there is a positive correlation between the

0:43:42

dollar index and the Bitcoin price or there's a positive correlation between the SMP500

0:43:47

and the Bitcoin price.

0:43:49

How would you address that if people are saying, okay, there is most likely going to be a recession.

0:43:53

It's not a smart idea to buy Bitcoin, which I disagree with.

0:43:56

But how would you put reason behind that or what do you actually think about this kind of argument?

0:44:02

I think that anybody has some capital.

0:44:06

Anybody that has capital to invest, they should take a minimum of a, excuse me,

0:44:15

a minimum of 10-year time horizon.

0:44:17

And I really think a hundred-year time horizon is the right time horizon to get you to think rationally.

0:44:22

So now the question is just how do you want to have your portfolio allocated?

0:44:27

Some mixture of scarce desirable assets.

0:44:30

And I've already laid out the case for why Bitcoin, I think, is the most scarce, most desirable asset.

0:44:38

And if you're not going to hold Bitcoin as the scarce desirable asset, then I think you have to own something else.

0:44:44

Like I respect the royal family of Japan or Britain for holding real estate in the middle of their respective cities, right?

0:44:52

Tokyo and London.

0:44:54

Have a scarce desirable asset you're going to hold forever.

0:44:57

I don't think trading is a good idea for anybody other than a professional.

0:45:02

So if you look maybe 0.1% of the people, if you're a professional with proprietary models and proprietary equipment and proprietary access, you might be able to trade.

0:45:14

But 99% of people cannot trade successfully.

0:45:19

I don't think I can trade successfully.

0:45:23

And if you look at the statistics, if you remove 1% of the trading days, the 1% most profitable trading days from your activity, there is no return.

0:45:38

Like you would get a 7 or 8% return per year on stock portfolios if you just hold them for a hundred years.

0:45:45

But if you take out two or two days a year or three days a year, you actually get a negative return.

0:45:52

If you take out the three best days.

0:45:54

So if you don't guess the three best days, if you're not long, the three best days out of 365, there is no return.

0:46:03

So statistically 99% of the time someone's telling you to trade, but you shouldn't.

0:46:11

And 1% of the time everything moves, but generally people can't predict when that 1% is.

0:46:17

It'll happen when you least expect it.

0:46:19

So trading is in my opinion, a fool's Aaron.

0:46:23

I think it's a very dangerous thing.

0:46:26

And most people are going to squander their capital because they're going to try to outsmart the market.

0:46:32

And I think stock picking is equally challenging.

0:46:38

I just laid out there 7,000 publicly traded companies.

0:46:42

If you take out the 7 best ones, there is no return.

0:46:47

99.9% of the companies can't beat inflation.

0:46:55

Okay, so we know which ones can like Apple Google.

0:46:59

But the question is, did you know that 10 years ago?

0:47:02

You know, the reason I was able to buy 17,000 Bitcoin is because I was able to pick Google and Apple and Amazon in 2010 and hold it for a decade with a lot of money.

0:47:16

Right.

0:47:17

But on the other hand, if you picked Amazon in the summer of 2020, you didn't make any money.

0:47:22

You know what happened in the summer of 2020?

0:47:26

I tell you a real story.

0:47:29

When my three or four year old niece, when she said to me, I like the big Apple.

0:47:41

This was like 2010 or 2008.

0:47:45

I said, wow, it's a young girl.

0:47:49

And she sang she likes Apple.

0:47:50

This means Apple is a big deal.

0:47:52

We should load up on the stock.

0:47:53

And I was when 98% of the world or 99% of the world didn't agree and they thought it was a stupid idea.

0:47:59

Apple was valued at like eight times cash flow.

0:48:03

You know, and you could have bought it 100 X from there or something just ridiculous.

0:48:07

But I thought, yeah, this is a good idea.

0:48:09

And I wrote this book, The Mobile Wave.

0:48:11

And I actually tell the story in the first chapter of the mobile wave about how, you know, my young niece thought Apple was amazing.

0:48:19

And I thought, the big Apple had been New York City.

0:48:22

And now the big Apple is iPad.

0:48:23

And this is a big change in wealth.

0:48:25

Okay.

0:48:26

So that, that was a good entry point because nobody agreed, but it was unstoppable.

0:48:32

That's what I say.

0:48:33

The best investment is something everybody needs.

0:48:36

Nobody can stop.

0:48:38

But nobody understands.

0:48:40

Right.

0:48:41

That's what Apple was.

0:48:42

That was what Facebook was.

0:48:43

That was what Amazon was.

0:48:45

In 2008, 2010.

0:48:48

Now, in the summer of 2020.

0:48:51

You know what my niece told me.

0:48:55

She said I'm buying Amazon stock.

0:48:57

Everybody knows it's a winner.

0:49:00

Because everybody's in lockdown.

0:49:03

And they're all basically ordering, you know, like the, they're ordering their food in the order their groceries and.

0:49:09

Okay.

0:49:10

So everybody knows.

0:49:13

Every 20 something investor, every Gen Z person knows that they should buy those stocks.

0:49:16

Well, it didn't work, right?

0:49:17

Because everybody knew it.

0:49:19

Everybody agreed.

0:49:20

Everybody needed it.

0:49:21

But everybody understood they needed it.

0:49:24

And so in fact, what you've got 36 months later is.

0:49:29

You have all the logistics challenges.

0:49:31

The supply chain challenges, the labor challenges, the inflation challenges, the management.

0:49:35

The challenges, the supply chain challenges, the labor challenges, the inflation challenges, the manufacturing challenges and everybody needs it.

0:49:43

And everybody, everybody understands it.

0:49:46

But you know, if the criteria was, do you need it?

0:49:50

And do you understand it?

0:49:51

The richest people in the world would be investors in water companies and electricity companies.

0:49:57

Because everybody in New York City needs water and power.

0:50:02

But, but name me one billionaire in the 21st century.

0:50:07

That's a water billionaire or electricity billionaire, you know?

0:50:11

And the reason why is, because everybody understands it.

0:50:15

And once everybody understands it, it's getting regulated.

0:50:19

And once it gets regulated, it's not an unregulated monopoly.

0:50:22

It's a regulated monopoly.

0:50:24

They're not going to raise their prices and people, you know, people aren't going to, they paid less for their electricity or whatever.

0:50:30

Then they're going to pay for their, whatever favorite streaming video thing.

0:50:34

That's the fad.

0:50:36

So, you know, I think that when people, they talk about ODE and recessions coming or whatever, they're attempting to outstock pick the market.

0:50:45

They're attempting to out trade the market.

0:50:48

They're, you know, they're feeding on your gloom and doom.

0:50:52

What do they want you to do?

0:50:53

Sell your scarce desirable assets and buy the dollar.

0:50:56

They want you to go short to, are you going to sell London real estate to buy the dollar?

0:51:01

No, or they want you to sell your desirable assets and give the money to them.

0:51:06

It's like I, I wouldn't trust anybody that basically comes to me with doom and gloom and fear and says whatever your idea is going to zero.

0:51:16

So, give me your money.

0:51:18

You see, the difference is, I'm not asking for your money.

0:51:22

I'm telling you, keep it yourself.

0:51:24

Just, you know, don't blow it.

0:51:26

So, if all these things happen, then the governments of the world are going to print more money to solve the problem.

0:51:32

If there's war, if there's, if there's recession, they're going to print more money and will drive up the value of scarce desirable assets.

0:51:40

If none of these things happen, they're still going to print more money.

0:51:44

Right?

0:51:45

In good years, they're going to inflate the currency supplies and bad years are going to inflate the currency supply more.

0:51:52

And, you know, if you look back for the past 100 years, if you could have bought an acre of real estate in New York or London or Tokyo, at what point would you have sold it?

0:52:01

Never.

0:52:02

There would have been booms and busts and crises and recessions and whatever.

0:52:07

But, you know, the only winning strategy is you hold the most desirable asset for the longest period of time.

0:52:14

And you let everybody else panic sell.

0:52:17

And I think that's the case with Bitcoin right now.

0:52:20

I mean, you hold on to it and let everybody else, you know, trade 7,000 different razor blades.

0:52:29

Yeah.

0:52:30

Beautiful.

0:52:32

I really like the story you just told about about a very, very, very, very beautiful.

0:52:37

And I want to pick up on that.

0:52:39

I mean, we are approaching the end of the interview already.

0:52:42

But I have some, some short things I wanted to mention and I wanted to pick your brain on.

0:52:47

I really agree with that you need to have something which is unstoppable.

0:52:52

Bitcoin is unstoppable.

0:52:53

It solves so many problems.

0:52:55

And it should not yet for you to make significant gains in terms of purchasing power, be recognized and understood by everyone yet.

0:53:04

Now I want to look at the history of Bitcoin where we had these traditional cycles, right, US dollar wise.

0:53:09

We can call it four year cycles or something.

0:53:12

Do you see something like this continuing because what I think is there will be a point of time where there will be a ripple effect where within a short amount of time,

0:53:21

probably the whole world is going to understand Bitcoin.

0:53:24

We have communication at the highest level already through the internet.

0:53:28

And I think people can get educated within a few years on a global scale about Bitcoin.

0:53:34

So do you see these cycles happening as they were in the past, or do you think something like a super cycle is possible where Bitcoin is going to be understood by the whole world.

0:53:47

And we are seeing a tremendous growth and maybe much earlier than expected going to reach the saturation point where Bitcoin is afterwards going to grow with the inflation rate, whatever it might be.

0:54:02

I think it takes 20 to 30 years for a new technology to diffuse to 80% of the world or 80% of the educated world.

0:54:13

So I think you got to look out over the course of a generation.

0:54:17

William Gibson has a famous phrase he said the future is already here, but it's not evenly distributed.

0:54:23

And so what you have is you're always going to have some people that are going to be very hypersensitive to new technology and others that are going to go slower.

0:54:33

There are plenty of people with a lot of money in the US and Europe that don't have smartphones.

0:54:43

Right. And so the smartphone revolution really kicked off in 2010 and that was 13 or 14 years ago.

0:54:53

2009 was the iPhone 3. So 14 years ago was a smartphone revolution. And if you ask anybody in their teens or 20s or 30s, of course they grew up with these things.

0:55:03

But you'll find a lot of people in their 60s, 70s, 80s that don't have smartphones. And especially let's take, I mean, DeWarn Buffett and Charlie Munger today have smartphones like about four or five years ago they bought Apple stock, but they still haven't bought Microsoft stock.

0:55:23

So, but what do they have? They have a trillion dollar balance sheet.

0:55:28

So there's a lot of money in the world that's in the hands of people that don't use the internet, that don't use smartphones that aren't definitely tech savvy.

0:55:38

And so there's going to be a long tail called a 20, 30, 40 year tail where that money is going to gradually get invested and reallocated into the Bitcoin ecosystem.

0:55:53

But it's not like it's not like in 24 months everybody with money in the world wakes up and realizes this.

0:56:01

And I've said, you know, so what's the right forecast? It's highly likely that what you have is a serpentine growth, right, where you're going to grow with a slope of 40 or 50% and it's going to be cooling down from 45 to 40 to 35% to 30% to 25 to 22 to 20% annualized over the course of the next 20 years.

0:56:25

It's something like that, but you won't get a perfect exponential what you'll get is a surge up followed by a crash down and you'll have this serpentine pattern growing.

0:56:38

So there is a cycle, you know what what will drive the cycle lots of dynamics, a regulation will drive the cycle.

0:56:47

Havings will drive the cycle, you know, awareness will drive the cycle. I mean Apple will drive the cycle, big tech will drive the cycle technology will drive the cycle war will drive the cycle, you know, panic hyperinflation will drive the cycle.

0:57:02

And it'll look different depending on what country live in for example, Bitcoin is already at all time highs and places like Argentina, you know, or Lebanon right or if your currency collapses, you're already at the super cycle all time high.

0:57:16

But in other places, it isn't so you got to consider frame of reference.

0:57:21

So I don't think this is a problematic thing what it means is if you're trading Bitcoin with a time or eyes of less than 48 months, then there'll be some point where you might be underwater in your latest purchase and the important point is not panic and to look out 10 years.

0:57:41

And at the same time, the world's not going to be rational overnight, but you don't want it to be rational overnight because statistically you're much better off if Bitcoin gradually adjust up between now and 20 to 30 years from now if it gradually matures because that gives you 30 years to dollar cost average.

0:58:06

Yeah, you've got 30 years of earnings ahead of you and you can sweep those cash flows into Bitcoin at a discounted price right and you've got 30 years of alpha of knowledge year always going to be smarter than you know the person 25 years ahead of you who isn't sensitive to the crypto economy hasn't figured it out yet.

0:58:28

And there are a lot of these institutions and governments, I mean think about it there are large insurance companies and large governments and bankers there are going to be 10 years or 20 years after everybody else because there's so much inertia in their and their governance right they might actually evaluate a new idea every three years and take another three years to study it and implement in another three years and and actually introducing a new treasury reserve asset.

0:58:58

But in nine years that's pretty fast for a country.

0:59:03

Right how long did it take for the central bank of a place like Norway or a sovereign wealth fund to buy Apple stock how long does it take Berkshire halfway to decide to buy Apple or Microsoft.

0:59:17

10 years 20 years 30 years so you're going to have those delays but those will keep the world from delaminating.

0:59:26

You don't really want it to go much faster like if I said to you hey everybody in the world watched our podcast and they realize that we were right and then they all bought Bitcoin well Bitcoin would be $5 million to tomorrow morning.

0:59:43

And then your number one thought in your head would be dang I didn't get the chance to buy it I was going to buy it for would you buy Bitcoin for less than $5 million asked the question would you.

0:59:57

Would you buy it for it you know would you buy it for us or five.

1:00:02

Yes so the point so the point is the next decade you can probably buy it for less than $5 million right that's a benefit to you.

1:00:13

Right like if you know what if you know what's going to happen and you're working at McDonald's making $10 an hour well when Bitcoin goes up by a factor of a hundred right then you're not making $10 an hour you're making $1,000 an hour you see if you're taking the $10 an hour.

1:00:31

And you know something nobody else knows that you convert the $10 an hour into Bitcoin right now.

1:00:37

Then you'll look back in 20 years when the rest of the world figures is out and then you realize well I was actually making $1,000 an hour working at McDonald's because I was sophisticated financially.

1:00:50

But if every if if Charlie Munger and Warren Buffett watch this podcast and if they figured it out they have $160 billion of cash right now.

1:01:00

If they understood that they could buy $160 billion worth of Bitcoin it would go up by a factor of 10 and they would make $1.6 trillion in the next 12 weeks.

1:01:13

That would be good for them but it would be bad for McDonald's guy it'd be bad for every worker because they would lose the opportunity to front run Berkshire halfway you say so.

1:01:26

So it's going to go up it's going to it's going to go up sickle-quiet it'll grow fast if I said I expect 40% it'll grow 80% and then it will crash down 30% right.

1:01:39

There's no way that the world is able to adjust in a perfect exponential that's not the way that markets move they overshoot and they undershoot.

1:01:49

And so that's why you kind of have to have a steady hand and you have to have enough education to have conviction and you know you if you're trading with 20 acts leverage you're not going to be able to hold that position through the entire cycle.

1:02:05

Right and if you're trading with 20 acts leverage with a market market you know an FTX right you might wake up and find out that the exchange wiped you out due to a clerical error on their fort fault.

1:02:16

And then you sue them and then you find out they bankrupted themselves and so you're standing online behind $10 billion creditors and so you could be right and still wrong so you have to be careful about how you execute.

1:02:28

And your investment strategy and what counter parties you trust and what time frame you take.

1:02:34

But you know as a general rule you know simply allocating your long term portfolio to Bitcoin looking out 10 years and then enjoying the ride is is probably the wisest course of action for the average person or the company or any investor for that matter in my opinion.

1:02:56

Yeah beautiful thank you very much on elaborating on that that was really something many many people wanted to know we are going to wrap it up shortly I know that many many people really wanted to know any price target you mentioned it a few times a few different numbers.

1:03:11

I just wanted to know if I understood you correctly you mentioned to 300 trillion US dollars that would be I think if I'm doing the math correct 10 15 million US dollars per Bitcoin long down the line we are looking at maybe a generation of time 20 years you mentioned 5 million maybe in 10 years maybe in 20 30 years we are looking at the 2 300 trillion which of course would be quite beautiful and I think equate to a price target purchasing power just to today 10 to 15 million US dollars.

1:03:40

Did I understand you correctly with that just want to know. Yeah I think that's definitely possible and I think the right way to think of it is long term the money supply expanded 7% the stock market of portfolio of scarce desirable stocks like the S. B. Index will probably track the money supply long term over 100 years Bitcoin should be plus 7% more because you get rid of the risk premium the risk and the liabilities of the companies.

1:04:09

But in the near term we're in high growth Bitcoin right now and we're growing you know 20 to 40% with volatility on an annualized basis until we move from high growth state to more mature you know virtuous state.

1:04:27

And then you just got to you got to just look at the total world world and if the total world's wealth is 900 trillion a thousand trillion dollars then there's just no reason why Bitcoin should become 10 to 20% of that and that gets you to a number 10 million dollars a Bitcoin when we're 20% of the world's wealth and today's dollars.

1:04:49

Thank you very much and I'm pretty sure many people watching this listening to this will be very happy about that.

1:04:56

Now as an ending question something where I think I might know the answer to that already but I want to put two things out because many people many people watching this channel I mean my channel is basically almost Bitcoin only every now and then I talk about Ethereum and we have a lot of Alcon believers still here and they asked me man please ask Michael sailor about what he thinks about Alcon's what does he think about Ethereum specifically maybe we break it down to Ethereum.

1:05:25

Only and on the other hand I wanted to ask you something else also what do you think about ordinals because ordinals are of course on top of Bitcoin.

1:05:35

Is there any like do you think everything but Bitcoin is not for you or do you think maybe there's a difference what do you think about Ethereum or do you think about ordinals that as an ending question.

1:05:48

Let me preface this with one observation.

1:05:52

The only thing the only strategy I promote is long term hold for a long time and the only asset I would promote is Bitcoin all my other comments are just opinions and observations but I don't promote another strategy I don't and I don't promote another asset so hopefully people understand that with regard to observations.

1:06:17

I have some observations on both those my observations on ordinals are they're indicative of new applications that are forming on the Bitcoin base layer and in theory I think that there is demand to to do immutable transactions one immutable transaction is to burn your identity on the Bitcoin base layer forever and create your own kind of digital seal.

1:06:46

Another transaction is digital signatures using that you know orange check type identity burn on the base layer another application is timestamps I hash I hash a document and you know ordinals are art but I could hash a billion dollar will I could hash a 10 billion dollar contract.

1:07:08

And I hash it and I burn the hash on to the base layer so it's timestamp and hashed you could also burn the entire document so I burn I burn any document on the base layer if I wanted to burn something make it immutable indestructible immortal forever for hundreds of years.

1:07:28

Then Bitcoin would be the go to place to do it and I think ordinals are an example of an application to do that like I you know I I definitely would not promote anybody trading digital arts you know or trading these things as as NFTs I mean that's a speculative thing but I do think that there is benefit in the underlying applications and interest because if I can create a document or or authenticate.

1:07:58

A signature a document or a message immutably and send it unstoppable and have it last for a thousand years.

1:08:08

Then obviously that has value to the human race that has valued their national security applications there are financial applications or banking applications there are cyber security applications and I think that the ordinals the ordinals effort that's going to drive a lot of experimentation there and they will be.

1:08:27

And they will experiment with various use cases the market will like some not like some people have their opinions but ultimately I'm in favor of the market experimenting with new techniques and and I think that the more demand there is for block space and the more transactions there are the more transaction fees there will be.

1:08:50

Ultimately I believe that the transaction fees on the Bitcoin base layer will outstrip the block rewards and when the transaction fees outstrip the block rewards people will be paying for an immutable document and an indestructible message forever right that it will Bitcoin will become the ultimate crypto notary network of the world and that will be how governments companies and individuals figure out how to trade.

1:09:19

And so that's worth a lot more than people are paying for it now and I think that as that transaction demand increases it's going to drive minor rewards it's going to when the transaction fees are greater than block rewards when their material and they're growing faster than the hash rate then Bitcoin mining is going to be a great business.

1:09:43

I said that before and I believe that and ordinals are an example of an application but to be clear there's going to be a thousand right and you know and I'm thinking what if I took a $10 billion or letter of credit from a bank and burned it on the Bitcoin base layer and send it to somebody it's worth you know some fraction of $10 billion to protect it so I can think of a lot of very valuable applications if I don't trust the other network so I think that's interesting with regard to a theory on my observations are.

1:10:13

I think it's auspicious that the SEC approved the futures Ethereum ETFs right the fact that that those were approved is is auspicious for a theory because they could have denied them.

1:10:29

I think there's still a lot of uncertainty around what happens next because all the various use cases you know are under you know regulatory scrutiny so I think that in order to understand what happens next you kind of have to be very sensitive to regulatory developments with regard to defy with regard to crypto securities with regard to stable coins all of these are complicated areas we could have multi hour podcasts.

1:10:58

Discussing all the nuances of every other you know part of the digital assets economy you know NFTs are interesting stable coins are interesting crypto digital exchanges are interesting you know all all these defy things they're interesting they're all interesting they're all controversial they're all risky.

1:11:18

And I just want to make the point which I make before it's like I think the 7000 publicly traded companies are interests are risky and I think that investing in the 7000 best buildings in the world is risky and I think buying the 7000 most desirable paintings ever painted is risky you might overpay painting might get burned someone might rig the auction building might burn down company might fail.

1:11:48

The iPhone 72 might not be in demand they're all risky everything in the digital asset economy in the crypto economy it's all risky to so you know you invest in all those things at your own peril caveat and tour right the the brilliance of Bitcoin is I want to make money without taking all those risks right and so that's that's all I have to say on the subject and I wish everybody the best possible outcome.

1:12:18

Right I think I think we should all live happily ever after and the way to live happy ever after is consider your counterparty risk very carefully consider all the regulatory risk very carefully consider the underlying you know asset very carefully think about your own personal circumstances right and then and then have a strategy and stick to the strategy and don't don't flip this way in that with the wind because the market play.

1:12:48

The way of taking apart those who have little faith don't have conviction and have it done the work to understand what they're invested in.

1:12:58

Absolutely beautiful ending words thank you so much for your time I think we are 75 minutes and also thank you very much for your time it was a beautiful video as I think maybe some people were watching this right now you can leave some feedback down below some comments some questions let me know I will be going down below in the comment section and see what you have.

1:13:18

I have to say about this I'm very pumped about this I can't wait to get this video thank you so much for your time I know your time is valuable I know you have a lot of things on your plate I'm personally very very happy that this rough time seems to be coming to an end where people were screaming it's screaming at you and now that your holdings are finally in a profit I think you are basically reaping the rewards and as I always say who laughs last laughs last laughs usually the best and I think I'm going to be able to do that.

1:13:47

I think I'm going to be the best and I have the feeling that not only I but also you will be laughing last and we will be the ones laughing the best.

1:13:57

Thank you so much for your time and I hope I see you soon again maybe at Miami conference or anywhere else in the world was really beautiful to have you any last words to say before we are wrapping it up.

1:14:07

Thanks to everybody that listen the long and I look forward to seeing you next.

1:14:13

Thank you so much and everyone thanks for watching as always bye bye.

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