Bitcoin, The Smart Asset Class For Argentina

Bitcoin, the smart asset class.

I'll start with an observation.

There is an endless economic war.

And it's measured in the distribution of capital.

And here on this slide, you see about $900 trillion of capital.

And for those of you who know a little bit about me,

you know, my view is money, is economic energy.

And capital is just another word for economic energy.

And this represents nearly $900 trillion of economic energy around the world.

And over time, governments are always vying to take it from other governments.

They're vying to take it from corporations.

And so there's a never-ending competition between governments, countries, corporations,

institutions, families, and individuals over money and over economics.

And what you see is $900 trillion divided by various asset classes.

And Bitcoin, as of this summer, was about a $500 billion asset class.

I'm drawing upon the graphics of Creases, a great Bitcoin analyst.

And you can find him on Twitter at that handle.

Now, the most important thing to understand is that companies are attempting to increase their wealth by creating products and services.

Governments are increasing their wealth either by fighting wars, passing laws, or by printing currency.

So we could start with an observation in this entire last 100 years.

The world-reserved currency, the US dollar, is collapsing versus assets such as the S&P index.

The S&P is 500 of the most valuable companies in the United States or maybe the world.

It's collapsing against real estate, against gold, against art.

And it's hard to see this over the course of a year or two or three years.

But if you look over the course of a century, I find it to be very clarifying.

And on average, what you find is the United States dollar is losing 7% of its value each year for the last 100 years.

Now, if you look at government statistics in the United States, they will tell you that the inflation rates are about 2%, and they'll show you a graph like this, which shows that the dollar has gone from something like 94% to 95% of its purchasing power over this 100 years.

But that's based upon the consumer inflation rate.

Consumer inflation is the lowest inflation rate.

It's a market basket of goods that are easy to manufacture with a machine, or they're easy to print, or they're not labor-intensive, they're information-intensive, like watching YouTube videos, or boxstarch, or things manufactured.

This is the lowest inflation rate.

In fact, the producer price index is a higher inflation rate, and the asset inflation rate is higher.

So it's a mistake to think that $26 in 1910 or 1920 is worth $1 in 2020.

In fact, if you look at the US dollar versus other assets, you can see it's losing value at a much more rapid rate.

So the consumer goods rate is 93%, minus 93%, that's this chart.

The US dollar versus gold has lost 99% of its value.

We went from $20 an ounce to $2,000 an ounce, and so 99%.

And the US dollar against the S&P index, which is the US dollar against a corporation of a successful competitive company, or the US dollar against Miami Beach real estate has lost 99.8% of its value over those 100 years.

Now, that's not really well understood.

Most people don't think the inflation rate is 7%, they think it's 2%, and the difference between 2 and 7 is 93 versus 99.8, or 99.9.

Now, let's focus in on why the dollar loses value against real estate so rapidly, and I'll show you a picture of Miami Beach.

You see what you notice is there's a fixed amount of beach, and all those buildings on the beach are there because the value of an acre of land on that beach is 20, 30, 40 million dollars.

Very expensive.

In fact, the value of an acre in Miami Beach about 90 years ago, or 100 years ago, was $10,000 an acre, and a few years ago was $10 million an acre.

Today is $20 million dollars.

$1,000 to $2,000.

Now, why is it that the price goes up so fast? It goes up much faster than the cost of a Big Mac, or the cost of cereal, or the cost of a YouTube video.

And the reason why is because only God can make more beachfront.

Politicians can't print more beach. You can't manufacture more beach with a factory, and AI can't create more beach on a silicon chip.

There is no way to trick the world into there being more beachfront property. You can see it's a certain amount. It was that amount in 1930. It's that amount 100 years later.

And so as the money supply expands, that price goes up proportionally. So that's a fair yardstick. And what you would say is the beachfront property is scarce desirable property.

Now, that's the strongest currency in the world. The United States dollar. The US never fought a war on its own land. It never lost a war. It's been the dominant global power for 100 years.

Everywhere else, it's worse. Every other country was worse. In fact, just about every other currency went to zero in the time period.

And what you find is international currencies are generally collapsing at a faster rate, not oftentimes 14% or even more per year.

So that means that in the last 20 years, the rupee is down 47% against the dollar. Right? The real is down 62%. The Pakistani currency down 81%.

The Turkish lira down 96% and the peso unfortunately is down 99.8% against the dollar at the same time that the dollar is collapsing against the S&P and against real estate.

In fact, the US dollar lost something like 75% of its value against scarce desirable assets at the same time that these currencies lost their value.

So really, if you are valuing the peso against scarce desirable assets, you've lost 99.95% of your wealth in 22 years. This is not a good chart, but it's important to know the facts in order to decide the solution.

Most investors think that they're smart and most people think that investing is the solution. But it turns out that investment gains are generally just driven by the inflation rate.

So if you look at this chart, the green line is the money supply in the US dollars. And the red line is the S&P index, the stock index.

And as you can see, you could, if you didn't know about the money supply or if you thought the inflation rate was only 2%, you would think that your stocks are outperforming inflation and your companies are brilliant and they're succeeding and your investment strategy is brilliant and you're making lots of money.

But what you can see here is that a portfolio of companies is really just tracking the money supply.

The companies are doing things. They may be growing 2% a year, but the same 2% a year of improvement in productivity is being offset by 2% chaos and destruction and risk and liability that people don't pay attention to.

And so when you net it all out, a portfolio of companies is really just tracking the inflation rate in the money supply.

And that means that if we look across investing and we look at asset classes, you can see the government and the mainstream media would have you think the consumer inflation rate is 2%, that low, I'm speaking in the US and the US dollar, of course.

Obviously you know inflation rate is much higher in Argentina. But the most important point of this is we're talking about all 8 billion people in the world and we're talking about all the money in the world.

Even under the best of circumstances, this is what they're looking at. So the 2% line is the consumer inflation rate.

Most of these investments and asset classes can beat the 2% inflation rate. But as you can see, they can't beat the real inflation rate, the asset inflation rate or the money inflation rate, the rate at which money loses value against scarce desirable assets.

Now as you can see from the chart, the worst investment is a commodity. You don't want to buy oil or natural gas or lumber because human beings are really good at producing lumber and oil and natural gas.

I mean we use machines, we use factories, we use technology. Is there anybody that doubts that we're better at making oil or gold or silver or platinum today that we were 2000 years ago? It's kind of obvious. We just get better.

And so you know commodities and cash don't work. Then if you look at the average investor, they're getting 2.9% return because they're diversified.

As I've said before, diversification is selling the winner to buy the loser. Your consumer home is doing a little bit better, bonds are a little bit better.

But and the diversified portfolio under performs inflation. If you look at the S&P index, it's about the same, right? You're getting 7.5% return against about a 7 to 8% inflation rate.

But all you're doing is just keeping up with asset inflation. You're not beating it. The only asset class is to beat it by a little bit. You know, REITs real estate investment trust. It's basically real estate portfolios.

And maybe you might beat it by a percentage, but there really aren't any winners here. What this tells you is that if you own the most desirable property in the middle of London or Paris or New York City, you might be able to slightly beat monetary inflation. And most investment ideas don't work.

And so if you want to preserve your wealth, an investor has to convert their currency into assets and currency, CNY, Euros, Dollars, ARS, Bolivars, Reol, etc.

You have to convert them into assets that are scarce, desirable, portable, durable, and maintainable. Those are the five criteria that matter. And you have to evaluate every asset against that.

So what is Bitcoin? Bitcoin is the most powerful digital monetary network in the world. But it is simultaneously four things. Bitcoin is an asset. It is a network. It is a protocol. And it is an ideology. And many people misunderstand it, they think, oh, it's just a cryptocurrency.

But I think when you start thinking about asset network protocol and ideology, your eyes open. Many people say, well, Bitcoin is not backed by anything. What's it back for? It has no intrinsic value. And this they grossly misunderstand the network. Bitcoin is secured by four types of power, computing power, electrical power, economic power, and political power.

And if you don't understand these four types of power, then you're going to, someone's going to trick you out of your Bitcoin or you're going to make mistakes. So for example, the computing power is 460XAH.

That's all of these millions of Bitcoin miners, custom silicon, and they are channeling 16.5 gigawatts of electrical power into 460XAH.

Now, 16.5 gigawatts is 20 basis points of the power in the world. So it's a small fraction. But 460XAH is what makes Bitcoin truly secure, because that's all the computer power in the world.

If you wanted to redirect all the computers at Google, and Amazon, and Microsoft, and all of the iPhones to do hashing of Bitcoin, they're probably not going to generate 460XAH.

So it's the custom silicon which converts electrical power into computer power. And they're both important. Arguably, it's a lot easier to come up with 16.5 gigawatts than 460XAH, because all the hash power is owned by the Bitcoin companies that are securing the network.

Now to put this in perspective, 16.5 gigawatts is more power than the energy used to propel the entire United States Navy. All of the aircraft carriers, all the destroyers, all the ballistic subs, the entire Navy runs on a bit less than 16.5 gigawatts.

So that's a lot of power. 460XAH is all the computer power anybody else can muster. But that's not the only thing. Bitcoin is secured by economic power. And if you look at the four-year simple moving average of Bitcoin, and then you look at the supply, you conclude about 560 billion dollars have been invested in the Amazon.

And so that money secures the network. And you got to expect that the people that invested the 560 billion are going to protect it using all of their resources and influence. And then finally you've got about 220 million holders, 220 million people have some ownership of Bitcoin.

And those 220 million people, they're also going to use their political influence to protect the network. And so when you're investing in Bitcoin, you're protected by four types of power. Now how does this compare to everything else you can buy on that chart? Well, you can think of Bitcoin as the apex commodity.

The top competitor would be gold worth $10 trillion. And if Bitcoin's digital gold, it's better than gold. And it's better than gold because it's got an absolute supply cap. The production is rapidly approaching zero.

After 2035, there effectively isn't any material new production of Bitcoin for the next 100 years. And that means we're totally capped. And so people compare Bitcoin to gold, but Bitcoin is gold without the liabilities and the risks of gold. It's kind of pharmaceutical grade gold.

Gold is going to have systemic inflation. Minors are going to make more gold. It's hard to audit. It's very difficult to transfer. It's expensive to custody. It's very expensive to authenticate. Those are all the liabilities of gold. We know about that. The reason we know it doesn't work is because gold is not been appreciating and value for quite a while now.

Bitcoin solves that problem, but it enhances gold with digital audit, digital transfer, digital custody, decentralized robustness, integrity. It's got a global utility and appeal. And the technology industry is enhancing the value of Bitcoin.

One day you will see every smartphone in the world will have support for Bitcoin built into it. And even right now you can download dozens of apps that handle Bitcoin. And so you can't you can't download any app that moves gold around. And that's why Bitcoin is the apex commodity. It's just better than gold.

But to say that and stop there is really under selling Bitcoin because Bitcoin is also the apex property. You could think of it as cyber man hat and 21 million blocks in cyber space with appeal to eight billion people worldwide. What if everybody wanted to live in cyber man hat?

The top competitor in the property market is New York or London or Paris or Tokyo. And if you own the city block in New York in the last hundred years you probably made a lot of money.

But the problem with owning buildings in New York is you have maintenance cost depreciation zoning risk property tax physical nexus. You can't move the building from one city to another city. It's immobile. It's a liquid. And if you want to sell or buy the building you have to sell it all at the same time.

It's very expensive to do that and takes a lot of time. So Bitcoin improves on that by creating a building that's indestructible immortal in material. You can scale it. You can buy it $37 at a time. You can move it with high frequency. It's portable. It's global universally desirable.

It's like owning a building. But if you're going to own a building in bonus areas, why wouldn't you have a building that you could teleport to London, Paris or Japan when you needed to and sell it? It's just much better idea.

So Bitcoin is better property than any kind of physical property. But Bitcoin is also the apex technology. Right. It's a bank and cyber space run by incorruptible software. It's open to everyone on earth. So you can think about its digital finance.

And the top competitor in technology is Apple. Apple is the most valuable company in the world. But right behind it is Google and Microsoft and Amazon. And big tech is an obvious good idea. But what if I could actually have a digital monopoly that's global that everybody wants. But without the management team, without the employees, you know, right now people want to unionize Amazon. They're talking about unionizing Tesla. Well, you can't unionize a company that has no employees. There is no company.

The management is never going to screw up if there is no management. You know, you've got corporate taxes and tariffs and product cycles. You know, we're on the iPhone 15. You know, what about the iPhone 37 will be that will that be the one that you want because Bitcoin in a hundred years is going to be one twenty one million of all the money in that work.

So the product was set a decade ago. It'll be the same a hundred years from now. It may be the same a thousand years from now. So getting rid of product cycles and getting rid of all the liability risk that comes with corporations.

You know, is a big upgrade for Bitcoin and what you do get is this global network of holders. You get legal and ethical superiority because you know, a commodity is always superior to a security because there is no issue or there's no management team to miss.

Lead you you can you don't have to trust you can verify yourself and there's really no operating risk or execution risk because it's just running itself in a time was fashion on a global basis.

So if you like technology, then Bitcoin is the apex technology. But some people invest in money and what's the top competitor, the sovereign debt, right? A bond.

So the US Treasury bond is you know, is the Treasury asset for most corporations, most governments. There's hundreds of trillions of these bonds out there.

But Bitcoin is digital money and so it's a non sovereign bearer asset. It serves the value of a bond, but it doesn't have systemic inflation or counterparty risk or mandatory custodians.

And it doesn't have the real problem negative real yields. If the monetary inflation rate is seven or eight percent and the bond pays five percent, the after tax yield is two or three percent. So we meet you means you've got a negative real yield to five percent, which means your money is going to go away. It's going to be cut in half every 14 years.

And that's an every bond. Every sovereign bond has a negative real yield in every country always. Bitcoin on the other hand is again, is digital. You can self custody it. It appreciates much faster than fiat and it allows you to escape the local currency risk.

So and it's the longest duration asset. You know, a bond to be 30 years, but Bitcoin is forever. Bitcoin is a thousand year asset. I mean, it doesn't expire. Companies don't last a thousand years. Buildings don't last a thousand years. I mean, I guess the closest thing to something that might last a thousand years is the bar of gold. But gold isn't scarce.

You know, when the Spanish came to the new world and the conquistadors stole all the gold from from South America, they brought it back to Spain. They created massive hyper inflation and tripled the supply of everything and crashed their own economy in Spain and the rest of Europe. So there's always been inflation, even in gold on the gold standard because it's not scarce.

And now a lot of talk about the ETFs coming. Bitcoin's going to be the apex ETF. You could think of it as a global monetary network. It's the first ETF that's based on a synthetic asset with an absolute fixed supply that also has global appeal.

It's competing against the S&P index, the spider, SPY, and it competes against some other monetary ETFs like GLD or B O N D or the NASDAQ index. But ultimately Bitcoin is destined to rise above them as the global index because it doesn't have asset inflation.

All these other indexes have asset inflation. If you buy billions of dollars of the S&P index, it cranks up the stock price of all the companies in the index. They issue more equity. They basically dilute their own stock.

So you're always going to create more of these things. Bitcoin's the only ETF and the only index that is absolutely capped.

If you combine that with the global brand appeal, the lowest investment risk, the best growth drivers, the best tax treatment, the longest holding duration, what you've got is the winner.

Austrian economist would think of this as the world's first engineered sound money. And Austrian economist had been looking for sound money. It used to be people thought gold might be sound money. But as I pointed out, gold was an imperfect attempt at sound money.

We have never in thousands of years ever actually accomplished perfect sound money. Bitcoin is the first monetary asset that is not intrinsically defective.

That's a big sense. Think about it. It's the first non defective asset. People will build. If you double the price of real estate, they'll create more. If you double the price of the stock, they'll create more. They print more fiat currency. They mine more gold, but nobody can create more Bitcoin.

This is a big idea. Here we get to the orange pill moment. The reason you want to go in orange pill, everyone you know is we finally have an asset. Bitcoin, the world's leading. It's the leading scarce desirable, portable, durable, maintainable asset.

If you remember where I started in this presentation, I said, if you don't want to lose the economic war, you need to find something scarce, desirable, portable, durable, and maintainable. We found it.

Most people think they're too smart to buy Bitcoin. They want to be brilliant investors. You see it all the time on Twitter. Everybody's giving you a trading idea, an investment idea, an altcoin idea, a stock idea, something.

But I'm here to tell you that most investment strategies don't work. If you look at the returns on the S&P index, if you held a portfolio of stocks for 30 years, you would get 7.8% return.

If you missed the best 10 days or one day every 3 years, you get 5% return. If you miss the top day each year, the best day or 30 best days, you get 1.6% return.

There are only 50 days or 2 days out of the 30 years. If you missed the right ones, you get no return. You lose all your money.

You have to guess which 2 days each year will perform and which day each year will perform in order to actually out trade the market.

If you sell, you'll probably make a mistake because on the 1 day when something happens, that's when all the gains take place.

Now, you also can't pick stocks. This chart is the return of the Magnificent 7 or 7 stocks versus every other stock in the S&P 500 index.

The index might be up 11%, 7 stocks are up 53%, and everybody else is 0. There is no return.

Everybody's failing. 99% of the companies are failing to deliver any shareholder return. There's only a handful that are succeeding.

If you want to know something more blood-curdling, it's 7 stocks out of 7,000 publicly traded companies that are returning the majority of the returns.

That's 1 in a thousand. At 99.9% of these companies, they're not beating inflation. You might think that somehow you're doing a lot of brilliant things and they're working very hard, but they're working very hard, rolling a rock up a hill and the hill is monetary inflation.

This is the big idea in corporate finance. If you're a stock investor or an equity investor, most companies cannot grow their cash flows faster than the monetary inflation rate of 7 or 8%.

They have to rely upon expensive buybacks. They have to buy their stock back. They have to divvide it out. Their cash flows. They do acquisitions to try to get more growth non-organically.

Or they load up on debt and they leverage up their balance sheet and buy back their shares with debt so that they can get that shareholder or EPS to go up faster than the 7% number.

Of course, that's the standard finance playbook. But they end up buying lots of companies and overpay. They end up decatalyzing and giving away all of their cash flows. They amplify their risk. They create chaos and confusion.

It makes them fragile, makes them hard to manage, prone to failure, prone to bankruptcy and very vulnerable to takeovers by hostile competitors.

The reason all these companies fail is because instead of keeping their capital and holding it in their endowment on their balance sheet against a rainy day, they decatalyze, give all the money back to the shareholders and they have one bad year, then they're in trouble. Their stock crashes, their employees quit and the vulture circle and they get taken over.

When they get taken over, you have a merger of 3, 4, 5 companies, the companies lay off and cut staff and cut headquarters costs and people lose their jobs.

They discontinue product lines, they idle factories and they destroy manufacturing base. This creates economic malaise. The reason why is because the companies are decatalyzing per standard corporate finance because they're only allowed to hold bonds.

The bonds don't keep up with cost capital. That means this equity is just in fair and paired by unavoidable risk and liability. The typical stock portfolio is going to get that 7% return.

On the other hand, over 100 years, over a long term, I would expect that Bitcoin will return 14%. The reason why is because Bitcoin not only doesn't have the risk and liability of a company, Bitcoin has no labor, has no management, has no competition, has no technology, cycles, has no regulatory headaches, it doesn't have the risk, the tariff risk, etc.

It doesn't struggle with all the problems companies struggle with because it's not in the real world and it doesn't have physical nexus or political nexus.

Bitcoin also has all the virtues of a pure crypto decentralized network. It's cybernetic, digital, it's immaculate in its conception, it's immortal, it's incorruptible, it's global, it's indestructible.

You can imagine as a technology idea or an investment idea, you're just always going to have an advantage over mortals doing things in the real world.

You're trading strategy, your investment strategy, your stock picking strategy, your diversification strategy, they just don't work, there is one winning strategy that's going to work.

The one winning strategy is hold the apex asset for a long period of time. Bitcoin is that apex asset, that's how you beat the market.

The S&P index will look like it's benefiting but at the end of the day it was keep up. Gold will actually underperform because it's commodity and they're producing more of it.

And then any kind of cash or cash derivatives or bonds, they're going to destroy value.

Now let's look at some real numbers. This is Bitcoin performance versus other assets since August of 2020. Why do I pick that date? Because on that date, micro strategy bought $250 million worth of Bitcoin and announced it to the world.

So that's an important date for us. Now what did Bitcoin do since then? This is through yesterday, I guess, or two days ago, November 8th.

The Bitcoin's up 199% while the world's in chaos and there's a lot of inflation. The S&P index is up 30%. The NASDAQ 24, gold is down 4%. Gold's not working.

So the money that's getting printed doesn't flow into gold. Gold isn't money. People are either investing in text stocks or other corporations or Bitcoin, you know, maybe real estate. They're not investing in gold.

Silver is even worse. Why? Because silver is easier to manufacture than gold is less scarce and bonds are even worse than silver. Why? Because bonds are just governments printing money. They're just printing more bonds and so they're not working.

Now what do you do for your family, your company, your institution? Well, if you adopt the Bitcoin standard or you adopt the Bitcoin strategy, then you can use Bitcoin to fuel your growth.

So when my strategy invested that $250 million, Bitcoin was maybe 11,000 a coin. And then about a month later, Bitcoin lowered, it actually decreased to about 9,500 or 10,000 a coin and everybody panicked except us. We doubled down. And our view was, we'll just keep buying.

So you can see micro strategy stocks up 284% through November 8th versus Bitcoin up 199%. So we were actually boosted by our Bitcoin strategy. And you can see, you can compare us all the big tech companies, the Magnificent 7 like Google, Microsoft, Apple, etc.

You can see Bitcoin outperforms them all, but we're able to outperform even Apple and Google because we're using Bitcoin as the slingshot. And you can see there's no safety even if you're a monopoly or a dominant player like Amazon, there's no safety. And if you look at enterprise software companies, they were our competitors.

None of them can keep up with Bitcoin or us either. And so Bitcoin clearly gives you an advantage if you just dollar cost average and stay consistent.

Now, Bitcoin's currently in a high growth mode. If you look at that number, 199% implies about 45% 40 to 45% compounded annual growth rate. So Bitcoin's growing at 40% while that S&P is 78%.

So that's a high growth Bitcoin. So why is Bitcoin in high growth mode? Well, you know, mature Bitcoin over 100 years. I think, you know, kind of grows double at the rate of stocks because of all the reasons I pointed out.

But high growth Bitcoin is in the next decade, you know, where we are now and where we'll be for about a decade or two decades. And it's growing faster than that mature rate. And it's growing faster because of monetary inflation, global unrest, adoption is being driven by these massive inflation and global unrest.

And so as people reallocate their capital from real estate and stocks and and other assets and currencies, it's it's going to drive Bitcoin at faster than that long term rate.

And so you're getting an avalanche of retail adoption. You'll get more with a spot ETF. You're you'll get more institutional adoption with clarification of the ETF and accounting rules, etc.

And things like FAS be fair value accounting allow for corporate adoption. So right now, micro strategies really the most famous company to adopt Bitcoin as a treasury asset.

But imagine what happens when Apple computers buying a billion dollars a Bitcoin a month or what happens if Microsoft, you know, Berkshire Hathaway is $160 billion of cash. Apple has $150 billion of cash.

These these things are liabilities. So we still have a lot of corporate adoption look forward to and you're talking about, you know, people that they could bring five 10 20 50 billion dollars of capital to the market.

So I believe we'll see that kind of adoption over the next 10 to 20 years. That will drive growth faster. And then when everybody's understands Bitcoin as well as they understand the S&P index or as well as they understand commercial real estate, then we'll probably slow down to like a 14% or something.

Now over a long time, Horizon laser focus is rewarded. I have laser eyes on Twitter. You can see the laser eyes. What's the point? The point is think out a hundred years. Think why not because you're going to live a hundred years, but because thinking a hundred years is clarifying.

If your family had thought a hundred years in advance, you know, you wouldn't be here. If your government doesn't think a hundred years in advance, it would be no cities.

If you are going to do great things, you need to look out three generations. It's very clarifying and all of the mistakes, all the fear and anxiety that makes you do stupid things or makes you do knee jerk things that destroy wealth and create chaos.

They come about because people are thinking about three months or three weeks or three days or three years.

And so my advice is for you when you're thinking about more than four years out, think about yourself, your life, your children, your children's children.

Now, if your family or your company had a million dollars, a lot of money, I got grants you, but if you had a million dollars, if you invested it in cash, it was 7.5% degradation, you're going to end up with 900 dollars worth of value left after a hundred years.

Your money is going away, you're going to destroy your wealth. If you invest a million dollars in bonds at a five percent yield or a five percent pre-tax or a three and a half percent after tax yield and hold it for a hundred years, you will lose 96% or 97% of your wealth. You'll go from a million to 31,000.

Bonds will destroy your wealth. If you invest in the S&P index, you're just going to have the same amount of money after a hundred years that you started with. You're not going to make any more.

If you were to split that portfolio between the S&P index and Bitcoin, and this is assuming 7% for the S&P and 14% for Bitcoin and assuming 7% monetary inflation, I talked about, you're going to convert a million dollars into 512 million dollars.

It's extraordinary. If you simply invest the entire amount in Bitcoin, you're going to go from a million to a billion. It's a thousand acts. You're going to double your money ten times.

So you can see the difference between a mediocre strategy, a conventional strategy, and a winning strategy.

So let me say it this way. A million dollars invested for a hundred years leaves your family with a real net worth. If you invested in the peso and ARS for a hundred years, you will have 28 cents.

If you invested in the US dollar, you'll have 700 dollars. You'll have a million in the S&P index of companies. And you'll have a billion dollars if you invested in Bitcoin. So that's the big idea.

Bitcoin is economic armor. Right? When you think about it, we talk about it. If you think long enough, it is economic armor. It will protect you from the economic damage.

From the economic wars to come. And there really isn't much else that will. Now let me just, you know, spend a few seconds, a few minutes on counterparty risk and then I'll wrap up here.

Whatever you do, just make sure you don't lose the money. Right? This is common sense. So when you're actually making a decision and investment decision, you've got two things that decide.

One thing is what asset do I buy? And the second is how do I custody the asset or how do I, how do I avoid losing the asset? It's not enough just to buy the Bitcoin. You actually have to make sure that no counterparty steals, loses or destroys your Bitcoin.

So when you think about counterparty risk, your wealth can be impaired by the failure of any counterparty you're required to trust.

And so there are three broad categories of counterparties. Everybody has to deal with people. You, your counterparty, your family, your friends, trustees, people you trust, your lawyers, your accountants, your money managers, your employees, executives that accompany you work at. They're all people. Right? And you have to trust them.

You also have to trust corporations. The issuer of the asset, the producer of the product, a trader, a developer, the custodian, the bank, the exchange, the network.

And if you want a stable coin, you're trusting, trusting the issuer of the stable coin, you're trusting the network, the stable coin trades on, you're trusting the crypto exchange that holds a stable coin.

And then you're buying a stable coin that represents probably the dollar, which is going to lose 99.9% of your money over 100 years. So it's a bad asset in my opinion over the long term.

And you're going to have a bunch of counter parties and you have to understand them all. So keep in mind that you're always trusting counter parties.

There are either people or their corporations or their governments.

You have a building, you know, the district, the district can rezone the building. The mayor can rezone the building and seize the building. The state, the province can seize the building.

The government, you know, is a counter party. The federal agencies are counter parties, international agencies are counter parties.

So when you're thinking about whatever you're owning, whether it's a building or a piece of art or bar of gold or a stock or Bitcoin or a stable coin or a crypto asset of some sort, whatever it is you own, you only are going to get the return.

If none of these counter parties fail you. And so first thing to do is make sure you understand who your counter parties are.

The next thing you got to do is manage your counter party risk over a long enough timeline. Every person, every corporation, every government will fail over a long enough timeline.

Over a hundred years, just about every government fails, every bank fails. I challenge you to figure out where you could have actually kept gold or owned a building in the last 150 years where you wouldn't have been wiped out by war or famine or flood or earthquake or collapse or something.

So buying Bitcoin doesn't solve this problem, but what it does mean is that every three months or every year you can reevaluate all your risk and you can move the Bitcoin into a different counter party setting because it's not a building. It's not a bar of gold. You can move the Bitcoin in an hour.

So you should have a periodic health check. First question, do you trust yourself? I'm not joking. Do you trust yourself? When you're 75 years old and your hands are shaky and your eyes fail and maybe you got early onset Alzheimer's, you really want to trust yourself with your private keys. Do you trust yourself?

Do you trust yourself? Every time you get an Uber or a taxi cab and someone's driving you, you're trusting them with your life. If they drive you into a bridge and they kill you and you've got the keys in your head, what happens to your family?

So you have to ask yourself the question, do you trust yourself? Do you trust your family? Do you want to share your keys with the rest of your family? With two of them? Three of them? Do you trust your three year old child? Obviously not. Do you trust your 90 year old, great-grandparent that's in the hospital with cancer? With the private keys? Do you trust your friends? Do you trust your trustees?

Do you trust your bank, your vendor, your hardware, the crypto exchange, the stock exchange, do you trust your customers? Do you trust your employees? Do you trust your local government, your state government, the federal government? Do you trust?

If you trust somebody now, I tell you, maybe I trust myself right now but I might not trust myself in 30 years. I certainly wouldn't trust a one year old child in my family with the keys to the car or the keys to the Bitcoin.

So you've got to think about it and this changes. Maybe when your son or daughter is 25, you're going to trust them with the keys. Maybe you won't trust them when they're 18. You have to have systemic checks and balances. Who else is watching over your assets? Do you trust the watchdogs? It's valuable if you know that there's a lot of very well-educated people that are very motivated to make sure that no one loses the asset.

There are certain countries where you might want to trust your assets. Probably my stocks are more trustworthy in New York City than if my stocks were trading in a war zone in Asia or in a country in Africa that was just top over the coup. Use common sense.

Ask yourself to question, are you alone or do you have powerful allies that share your interests? How transparent are your counter-portees?

Micro-strategies are a publicly traded company. We publish thousands of pages of financial disclosures. If you have Bitcoin with a public company versus a private company, you're probably safer with a public company than a private company.

You're safer with a big well-regulated company than you are with three people that started up a startup in the middle of a random country.

You have to ask the question, will they fail gracefully? How transparent are they? If you look at the tragedies in Bitcoin for the past year and a half, people made the right decision to buy Bitcoin and then they trusted it with BlockFi or Celsius or Voyager or FTX.

They trusted counter-portees that were private companies that were opaque, that were not transparent. At the end of the day, the people running those companies failed them and the companies failed them.

I think the Bitcoin maximal community would say, not your key is not your coin. It doesn't answer all the nuance questions.

If I keep my keys, do I use a hardware wallet, a hardware wallet from whom, do I use multi-signature, who has the other key, who has the other signature, where do I store it, if I store it in a bank or in a bank vault, can I get to it? Do I tell somebody else in my family or not? Do I give it to my accountant? Do I not?

There are a lot of questions and you can get failed by any number of counter-portees. That's not that simple. You should have a backup plan and make sure you know what your backup plan is because at some point you'll decide the counter-portees you trust aren't reliable.

They're all vulnerable to chaos. Bitcoin is the one thing that benefits from chaos. When people lose confidence in everything else, they're going to go to Bitcoin.

Even in the most extreme, if people lose their Bitcoin keys, it's going to drive up the value of the rest of the Bitcoin. Bitcoin is fueled by chaos. It's a very valuable thing.

I'll end with the point on the future, which is the near-term catalyst. They're going to be fair value accounting, the Bitcoin spot ETFs and the having. They're all coming.

The world is going to reevaluate all these assets. What you're going to see is they're going to demonetize the other assets and shift them into the Bitcoin asset class. As they do it, when Bitcoin replaces gold, it should 30x from where it was. When they replace all of the other assets, there's no reason why I can't 500x. This is just a matter of education.

In summary, no country can stop inflation. The companies can't outgrow inflation. Workers can't outwork inflation. Feel we're going to beat the market by skill or luck. But everybody can buy Bitcoin.

With that, I want to thank you for your time. I just say stay humble and stack assets.